United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD has retreated to 1.1524 after failing several times near 1.1560. Intraday, they see scope for further pullback but expect strong support at 1.1495 to hold. Over the next 1–3 weeks, a close above 1.1565 would open the way toward 1.1600, while a break below 1.1495 would signal a shift into range trading.
Support at 1.1495, resistance at 1.1565"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR edged higher as we expected two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. From a high of 1.1559, EUR pulled back to 1.1514 before settling at 1.1524 (-0.23%). While there is scope for EUR to pull back further today, any decline is unlikely to break the strong support at 1.1495 (there is another support level at 1.1510). Resistance is at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum. It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level.
A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening have helped EUR/USD climb, but questions how justified this move is. He stresses that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not preclude rate hikes, and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. Commerzbank has cut its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its horizon as perceived Dollar hike risks rise.
dollar risks reprice on Fed uncertainty"Since last week's Fed meeting, expectations of interest rate hikes have been priced out. Rather than tightening by roughly 44 basis points by the end of the year, the expectation is now for 'only' 33. This is likely the main reason why EUR-USD has recently climbed higher again."
"The key point is this: the absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates. It simply means that any change will not be announced in advance. This shifts the focus to the decision itself and places greater emphasis on the data."
"Today's labour market figures could provide an initial indication of the direction of future monetary policy. Our economists expect 100,000 new jobs to be created, which is a stronger increase than the current Bloomberg consensus forecast of +80,000. However, the USD’s reaction will depend not only on the headline figure, but also on the extent of revisions to previous months' figures and the unemployment rate."
"If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes. While we still do not believe that the Fed ultimately intends to take this step, the market is unlikely to be deterred from continuing to bet on a rate hike. This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week."
"This is because, even though we have not adjusted our Fed forecast, the risk of an interest rate hike has clearly increased in recent weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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UOB Group’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD has staged a sharp rebound after drifting sideways, following a decline from January’s high to mid-June’s low. The pair is seen with scope to extend gains, but the analyst stresses that the 1.1560/1.1565 zone, aligned with the daily Ichimoku cloud top and a weekly trendline, is critical resistance, while support is noted at 1.1470 and 1.1445.
Rebound constrained by cloud resistance"EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.2078 in late January before declining to 1.1324 in mid-June. It then drifted sideways until last week, when it rebounded sharply. Given the deeply oversold weekly slow stochastic, the rebound was not surprising."
"While there is scope for EUR/USD to rebound further, it must first surpass the significant resistance at 1.1560/1.1565."
"The upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1560 was tested a few times this week but remained intact. The declining weekly trendline from January’s high is currently near 1.1565. Looking ahead, should EUR/USD break and hold above 1.1560/1.1565, it could rise toward 1.1622, the minor peak in June."
"Support is at 1.1470 (current level of the 21-day EMA), followed by the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1445. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1445, it would mean that the top of the cloud may continue to act as significant resistance for some time."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors.
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have rattled market stability and created significant skepticism regarding the reopening of this critical shipping route. Market caution remains elevated as Iran's parliament evaluates a draft proposal that seeks to prohibit US and Israeli vessels, levy a 20% cargo penalty on hostile nations, and maintain restrictions on the corridor until the US blockade is removed.
Adding to the market volatility, rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in crude oil prices have stoked fears that the Federal Reserve might implement another interest rate hike next month. Despite these inflationary signals, the CME FedWatch Tool currently reflects a 54.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, down from 63.4% last week. Investors and traders are now closely eyeing the upcoming July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to gauge the health of the labor market and better anticipate the Fed's monetary policy path.
Across the Atlantic, economic indicators in the Euro Area present a challenging backdrop. Eurozone Retail Sales unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in June, missing market projections for a 0.1% growth and almost completely unwinding May's revised 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose by merely 0.7%, the weakest performance since July 2024, falling short of the expected 1.0% expansion and decelerating sharply from May's 1.9% increase.
Furthermore, the recovery in oil prices could dampen hopes that declining energy costs would alleviate pressure on central banks to keep policy tight. Following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to hold interest rates steady at its most recent meeting, markets expect only one more ECB rate hike by the end of the year, alongside a roughly 40% chance of a second increase.
Kocher flags autumn data focus as geopolitical risks cloud Euro inflationECB's Kocher scores 5.6/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic average of 6.3/10, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook highlights upside risks to Euro-area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.
The commitment that in autumn the ECB Governing Council will base decisions on incoming data to bring Euro-area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but vigilant stance. Overall, the speech suggests a cautious hawkish bias, with Kocher keeping the door open to renewed tightening or a slower easing path if energy-driven inflation pressures re-emerge.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
US Dollar Talking Points: It’s been a comeback week so far for the USD as the USD/JPY sell-off that dominated last week has pared back. The big question now is two-fold, first the NFP report for tomorrow morning but perhaps more potentially impactful is what response we might see should USD/JPY continue to push closer to the 160.00 handle. After the Fed last week the focus becomes more intense on US data, as markets are still pricing in an 84.3% probability of at least one rate hike into the end of the year. Given the political drama that would entail it puts perhaps even more pressure on newly-installed FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh. The big data prints for the US are coming into view starting with tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls report. While we’ve had some big data items already this week and a surprising show from the Atlanta GDP Now estimate coming in at 5.9%, NFP and CPI can carry special meaning for market participants as they give a clear view of the Fed’s two mandates. And while NFP can often be messy given its early nature, CPI has been encouraging of late after last month’s below-expected print eased concerns after a hawkish sounding FOMC at the June rate meeting.
For this iteration, however, there’s perhaps another factor of consideration especially for FX markets and traders as the Japanese Yen intervention to close last week casts a shadow over markets. We’re still in the early stage of that saga but most noteworthy is that this time, it wasn’t Japan going at it alone, as the US Treasury Secretary made multiple comments on the matter and given the possible repercussions, it makes sense as to why he might be interested in the results.
So, that can be considered as either a wild card or a Trump card, depending on one’s vantage point. Because if we do see USD/JPY rally back above 160.00 or perhaps even higher, the big question is whether both Scott Bessent and the Japanese Finance Ministry will just continue to take a step back, even if it makes them look weak in front of global macro markets.
As I shared yesterday, this can produce a backdrop similar to 2022, and this is pertinent both for the Dollar basket and USD/JPY, where a theoretically-capped upside leads to a vulnerable trend that could quickly unwind as soon as data going in the other direction appears. In 2022, it was below-expected CPI, even though headline was at 7.1% and core at 6.3%. And now, with markets tightened for Fed rate cuts into the end of the year, evidence going against that in the form of weak employment and weaker-than-expected inflation can lead to USD-weakness as those USD/JPY carry bets unwind.
In DXY, price is testing a familiar area. The 100 spot is what came in as support right around when the Fed started cutting rates in 2024. And then in 2025, it showed multiple iterations of resistance until finally being broken through earlier this year.
Now, it’s back as short-term resistance following the sell-off from last week. And for USD-bears this can be a huge area to look for some element of defense.
US Dollar Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY I’m of the opinion that this is still the eye of the storm. While it’s not bearish on a short-term basis there’s still the very real prospect of a swipe from policymakers, as both economies in the pair have spoken on the matter over the past week. It’s also clear that both Japan and the US would like USD/JPY to not go back up to those 40-year highs that were set a week ago, as there’s ramifications for both economies.
I highlighted this in the weekend video last Friday but the 155.00 area seemed a logical support as an intervention there wouldn’t make much sense. Ultimately, that’s around where the low has come into place. Yesterday there was an ascending triangle as resistance had come back in around 158, followed by higher-lows that’s since led to breakout. So, it seems we have a case of bulls reaching just a little bit further to see how far they might be able to get before getting swatted down by another intervention move.
The 160.00 area seems a logical spot to look for some element of defense. And the ramifications of that are that the pair can be seen as carrying a more limited upside appeal, as a continued rally can evoke another action like we saw last week. Like I said in yesterday’s video, this isn’t quite bearish, but it is something that can leave the pair vulnerable for a shift in data and with some major reports coming out of the US over the next week that’s a very real scenario that should be entertained.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: Along for the Ride While the Euro is a much larger component of DXY than the Japanese Yen, the build of the carry trade over the last five years means that there’s probably much more size behind the USD/JPY trend than anything in EUR/USD. Thus, when we get a move like last week, when USD/JPY carry traders rush for the exit, if it it’s a relatively minor move in the grand scheme of that market, we can similarly see USD-weakness play out against the Euro, which broke above the 1.1500 handle and has since built a bit of support at the big figure.
From both the daily and four-hour charts, this is a bullish trend. From the weekly, however, there’s still a bearish argument that can be made and I think that persists until we see 1.1576-1.1613 traded through with a closed-body break on the daily chart.
Perhaps the bigger question is one of venue, as USD-weakness may simply play more attractively elsewhere, such as the British Pound. For now, taking that daily chart, there’s support potential at 1.1500 and then down at 1.1455-1.1469, after which that 1.1402 level stands out as an important spot for the pair.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report.USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies. USD/JPY climbed towards the 158.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally 4%
DXY 060826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 199,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.
Traders also react to the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +4% as Houthis attacked Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Rising oil prices raised demand for safe-haven assets, which was bullish for the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 50 MA at 100.35. A move above the 50 MA will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.
EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Retail Sales Miss Estimates EUR/USD 060826 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.
Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Factory Orders report from Germany. The report showed that Factory Orders increased by +3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.
EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.1479. A move below the 50 MA will push EUR/USD towards the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435.
GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near Resistance At 1.3465 – 1.3480 GBP/USD 060826 4h Chart GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 despite rising oil prices. In the UK, traders focused on the Construction PMI report. The report indicated that UK Construction PMI improved from 38.4 in June to 44.7 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 40.
A successful test of the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Attempts To Rebound
USD/CAD 060826 4h Chart USD/CAD gains some ground as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4025 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4055. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 060826 4h Chart USD/JPY gained ground as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.67%. Rising Treasury yields are bullish for USD/JPY due to the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen in the near term.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Scotiabank highlights that the Euro is slightly softer versus the Dollar after touching levels last seen in mid-June, with fundamentals still supportive as yield spreads turn. Spot has nearly converged with their fair value based on the 2-year Germany–US spread. Further EUR/USD gains likely need a shift in relative central bank expectations or improved sentiment, with near-term range seen at 1.1500–1.1600.
Euro aligns with yield-spread fair value"The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD, trading defensively following an overnight push to a fresh local high reaching levels last seen in mid-June."
"Fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads. Spot EUR has largely closed the gap to our FV estimate narrowly based on the 2Y Germany-US yield spread, which currently stands at 1.1538."
"Further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness."
"In data, the second-tier euro area retail sales figures have offered a slight disappointment for June but were balanced by stronger German factory orders—neither release appears to have had any impact on spot."
"Bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s. The gains in spot have delivered a fresh multi-week high reaching levels last seen in mid-June, however we continue to note the persistence of near-term resistance around 1.1550. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies. Still, the near-term technical picture remains bullish following the late-July rebound from below 1.1400. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1534, down 0.15% on the day.
Traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations and drive volatility in EUR/USD.
Analysts at Scotiabank note that “fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads,” with spot now trading close to their fair-value estimates. However, they caution that “further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness.”
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the setup as “bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s,” but still expects consolidation, stating that “we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1474. However, topside progress is already challenged by the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, which cap the advance for now.
Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades above its short-term trend support.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1474, ahead of a more significant horizontal floor near 1.1350. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, while a stronger barrier awaits at the horizontal level of 1.1700.
A daily close above the 100-day SMA would open the way toward the 1.1629-1.1700 band, whereas a loss of the 1.1474 support area would suggest that the current bullish bias is starting to erode.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%0.00%0.28%0.04%0.26%0.12%0.31%EUR-0.17%-0.16%0.13%-0.13%0.07%-0.03%0.14%GBP-0.01%0.16%0.30%0.04%0.24%0.11%0.31%JPY-0.28%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.04%-0.16%0.04%CAD-0.04%0.13%-0.04%0.24%0.21%0.10%0.29%AUD-0.26%-0.07%-0.24%0.04%-0.21%-0.12%0.07%NZD-0.12%0.03%-0.11%0.16%-0.10%0.12%0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.14%-0.31%-0.04%-0.29%-0.07%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are approaching major technical resistance levels after recent rallies. Payrolls data could determine whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged or signals another hike. US Dollar awaits Nonfarm Payrolls as markets reassess Fed outlook The US Dollar remained in focus on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important economic release. Following a string of softer US economic indicators, investors have reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase, leaving Friday’s labour market data as the next major test for the greenback.
Recent declines in JOLTS job openings, weaker factory orders and softer private-sector hiring have fuelled speculation that the US labour market may finally be cooling after months of resilience. While Federal Reserve officials continue to insist that policy decisions remain data dependent, markets are increasingly looking for evidence that inflation pressures are easing enough to allow interest rates to remain unchanged.
A stronger-than-expected payrolls report would likely revive demand for the US Dollar by supporting higher Treasury yields and reinforcing expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Conversely, another disappointing employment report could increase pressure on the dollar as investors scale back expectations for additional policy tightening.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Holds Near Seven-Week High as German Factory Orders Beat Forecasts EUR/USD remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the euro holding near the 1.1550 level after mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly rose 3.1% in June, comfortably beating market expectations and signalling that Europe’s largest economy continues to show resilience despite elevated borrowing costs and global uncertainty. However, the positive manufacturing data was partly offset by weaker Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.3% in June, highlighting that consumer demand remains fragile.
The mixed data has done little to derail the euro’s recent recovery, as investors continue to trim expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. With EUR/USD trading near its highest level since mid-June, markets are now looking to Friday’s US jobs report to determine whether the pair can extend gains toward the 1.1600 psychological level or retreat as the dollar attempts to recover.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Holds Firm Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Sterling continues to outperform against the US dollar, with GBP/USD remaining close to recent highs as traders balance a resilient UK economy against growing uncertainty over US monetary policy. The Bank of England’s cautious approach to interest rates, combined with easing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, has provided steady support for the pound in recent sessions. Investors are also monitoring incoming UK economic data, including construction activity and labour market indicators, for fresh clues on whether the BoE will need to keep policy restrictive for longer.
However, the biggest catalyst for GBP/USD remains Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to shape expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. A softer-than-expected payrolls reading could weaken the US dollar further and allow sterling to challenge the 1.3500 resistance zone, while stronger employment data may trigger a pullback across major currency pairs.
US Dollar Outlook: Nonfarm Payrolls Set to Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US dollar remains the primary focus across global currency markets as investors position ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final major economic release before traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade below the psychologically important 100.00 level after retreating from recent highs, reflecting growing uncertainty over whether the Fed will need to tighten policy further to contain inflation. While Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain committed to restoring price stability, recent economic data has painted a more mixed picture, prompting markets to dial back expectations for another immediate rate hike.
Recent labour market indicators have weakened the dollar’s momentum. ADP private payrolls growth slowed sharply in July, while JOLTS job openings and factory orders also disappointed, suggesting that hiring demand and business activity are beginning to cool. Investors will now look to Friday’s official employment report for confirmation on whether the slowdown is broadening across the US economy. A stronger-than-expected payrolls reading could revive expectations for another Fed rate increase and lift the dollar, while softer employment data would reinforce expectations that policymakers are nearing the end of the current tightening cycle.
Beyond the labour market, Treasury yields and broader risk sentiment remain key drivers of the greenback. The recent decline in oil prices following progress in US-Iran negotiations has eased inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive for longer. At the same time, improving investor appetite for risk has limited demand for the US dollar’s traditional safe-haven appeal. With the DXY sitting near a key technical support zone and major currency pairs approaching important resistance levels, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is widely expected to determine the next major direction for the US dollar and the broader foreign exchange market.
Why is the US Dollar in focus today?
The US Dollar is in focus ahead of the July US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Why is the Nonfarm Payrolls report important?
The monthly US employment report provides one of the clearest indicators of labour market strength and often influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, making it one of the biggest market-moving events each month.
What could move GBP/USD higher?
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report or stronger UK economic data could help GBP/USD break above key resistance near 1.3500.
The US dollar rebounded this morning and that caused the EUR/USD and the price of gold and silver to ease back from their earlier highs following yesterday’s big precious metals rally. The greenback lost ground yesterday after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were edging closer to an agreement that could ease tensions in the Middle East and help stabilise energy markets. The prospect of lower oil prices reduced concerns over inflation, encouraging investors to trim expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while favouring currencies that were undermined by the prior energy spike, such as the euro. However, as the anticipated announcement has so far failed to materialise, the dollar has recovered part of its losses, with investors becoming increasingly reluctant to chase risk ahead of key US data in the days ahead. The EUR/USD forecast remains cautious for now.
Iran deal or no deal? Markets embraced the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, with expectations that any agreement could lead to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
That encouraged flows into equities and precious metals while weighing on the greenback, as easing energy prices would lessen inflationary pressures and potentially reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy for longer.
Yet again though, that enthusiasm has faded as the expected confirmation has so far failed to arrive. While negotiations may be progressing, traders are now demanding concrete developments rather than reacting solely to headlines. For now, the possibility of a deal continues to provide a supportive backdrop for broader risk sentiment, but it wouldn’t take much for markets to falter.
This keeps the near-term EUR/USD forecast highly uncertain. If oil prices were to spike again, then surely the currency pair will fall alongside risk.
Payrolls and inflation now take centre stage Meanwhile, attention will be shifting towards US economic data, with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report representing the next major test for financial markets, followed by CPI next week.
This week’s pre-NFP indicators have painted a mixed-to-weak picture. Private-sector hiring has cooled, while the employment component within the latest ISM services survey suggested labour market conditions may be softening. Today’s release of weekly unemployment data showed jobless claims rose by 199K vs. 203K eyed.
Policymakers from the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stressed that future decisions remain data dependent, meaning one report is unlikely to alter expectations dramatically unless it delivers a significant surprise.
Markets currently remain relatively steady in their expectations for Fed policy over the coming months, despite the sharp decline in oil prices this week. That highlights how investors are placing greater emphasis on labour market data and inflation than on short-term swings in commodity prices.
Looking beyond payrolls, next week’s CPI report is likely to prove even more influential. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations that the Fed may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, supporting the dollar. Conversely, another soft inflation print could place renewed pressure on the US currency. As you may recall, the June report showed a bigger than expected decline in headline CPI to 3.5% compared a prior reading of 4.2%, while core CPI was also softer at 2.6% compared to both expectations and the prior reading (2.9%).
Technical EUR/USD forecast and levels to watch Source: TradingView.com The EUR/USD has held above the 1.1500 handle this week, keeping the near-term technical bias to the upside. It is not trying to break its bearish trend line, and a big bad of resistance between 1.1560 to 1.1620ish. Without a collapse in oil prices, or significantly weaker US data, the balance of risks remain tilted to the downside for the EUR/USD forecast from here, given that markets have priced in a deal already. Technically, a break below 1.1500 support could see the pair head down to low 1.14s again, the base of the recent breakout.
Gold sees early gains ease but buyers stay in a good spot in second half of the weekEquities take a step back as investors can't shake off AI spending concernsS&P 500 soars to record highs as geopolitical risks ease; focus shifts to US CPI dataThe dollar's next move hinges on inflation, while the yen waits for the BoJUS-based employers announce fewest job cuts in two years in JulyGerman construction activity continues to struggle at the start of Q3UK construction slump eases in July amid rebound in client demandMarkets:
WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $75.80USD leads, CHF lags on the dayGold up 0.2% to $4,255S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down 0.4%US 10-year yields up 2.6 bps to 4.64%Bitcoin down 0.3% to $64,565It was a session where markets are taking a bit of a breather in not really chasing any moves too much.
The jump higher in gold and tech selloff yesterday is still reverberating, and market players are gathering their steps again in approaching the second half of the week.
Without any fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, there wasn't much else to work with on the session. As such, the focus and attention now shifts to the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
Gold remains in the spotlight after early buying in Asia saw price run to a high of $4,303 before settling to $4,255 now - still up 0.2% on the day.
Meanwhile, oil prices are also keeping a little higher with WTI crude up 0.8% to $75.80 amid a more cautious mood surrounding the situation in the Middle East.
In other markets, the dollar was not up to much as currency traders continue to be sidelined in trying to figure out their next steps after the USD/JPY joint intervention. The dollar is keeping steadier today with EUR/USD down 0.1% to 1.1540 and USD/JPY up 0.1% to 157.90 currently.
And following the tech selloff yesterday led by SpaceX, Nasdaq futures are once again down today by 0.4%. Dow futures are once again keeping higher and that is seeing S&P 500 futures hold a slender 0.1% gain ahead of the open. All eyes will be on how tech shares fare next after some heavy bleeding in Asia with the KOSPI closing over 4% lower.
Besides that, 10-year Treasury yields are seen nudging back up a little by 3 bps to 4.64% and that will keep broader markets in check so as to not get all too optimistic in the grand scheme of things.
It's on to the US weekly jobless claims next before we move on to a full countdown mode ahead of the non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
The Euro took advantage on the Intervention with the Yen to test the downtrend as we see from the chart, which in return pushed for a correction
A trading zone between 1.1435 and 1.1560 could hold prices until one of the boundaries break.
Above 1.1560 could open the door towards 1.1685 and 1.1795.
Below 1.1435 more of a drop toward 1.1320 and 1.1210 is likely.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.435-80 1.1560 LEVEL2 1.1320 1.1685 LEVEL3 1.1210 1.1795 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum.
It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level. A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended modest gains to close at 1.1551, with mild upward momentum still intact. Intraday, the pair may test 1.1565, though a move to 1.1600 is seen as unlikely without stronger momentum. On a 1–3 week horizon, a sustained rise requires a daily close above 1.1565 while holding above 1.1495 support.
Euro's grind higher faces key hurdles"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565.” We were not wrong, as EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 before settling at 1.1551 (+0.19%). The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.1530 (minor support is at 1.1540) would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” While EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 yesterday, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. In other words, EUR still must close above 1.1565 before further sustained rises can be expected. The odds of EUR closing above 1.1565 will remain intact as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 1.1495 (level was at 1.1470 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Lower-than-expected ADP Employment leads the Dollar Index to slip. Watch crucial support near 99.50, which needs to hold to keep the upside view intact. The index could be volatile this week with the US jobless claims data release today and NFP tomorrow. Euro can attempt to test 1.16 while USDJPY can take a breather and remain stable. EURJPY can rise towards 184 while Aussie and Pound can see a near-term rise towards 0.71 and 1.35 before pausing for a reversal. USDCNY holds below 6.75 and could slowly head towards 6.70 while USDINR needs to decisively break below 95 to open a downside target of 94.75/50 else can see bounce from current levels towards 95.25/50 again.
The US Treasury Yields are managing to hold above their key support. A strong bounce is needed from here to avoid an extended fall and also to resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields are hovering above their support. We expect them to bounce back from here and resume their uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its key support. A further fall from here will confirm the resumption of the broader downtrend and drag it lower. The RBI kept their policy rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting yesterday.
Dow can extend its rally towards 55000-55500, while DAX remains bullish above 26000 with scope to rise towards 27000-27500. Nifty continues to hold above the key 24500 support and can advance towards 24800-25000. Nikkei has resumed its upward momentum and can rise further towards 67000-68000. Shanghai is approaching the key 3900 resistance, with a sustained break opening the way towards 4000-4050.
Brent and WTI remain vulnerable to further declines towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold has turned bullish after breaking above its previous range and can rise further towards $4500. Silver has also strengthened and can extend its gains towards $65-$70. Copper remains constructive and needs a sustained break above $6.80 to continue its rally towards $6.85-$6.90; otherwise, a pullback towards $6.60-$6.50 is possible. Natural Gas remains weak and can decline towards $2.65 in the near term.
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The Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm at around 1.1555 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar is broadly under pressure due to deteriorating United States (US) employment conditions.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto two-day losses at around 99.65.
On Wednesday, the ADP reported the fresh addition of 44K payrolls in the private sector in July, lower than estimates of 70K and the prior release of 98K.
For more cues regarding the US labor market, investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
According to TD Securities, July’s jobs report is expected to show only a slight improvement after June’s downside surprise. The bank’s economists look for "July NFP [to have] picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June," and judge that "risks to our payrolls forecast appear balanced." They also anticipate that the unemployment rate will show little change, with "the UE rate likely [having] went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June," reinforcing their view of a broadly stable labor market backdrop.
On the Euro front, investors await the Eurozone Retail Sales data for June, which will be published at 09:00 GMT.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD holds onto week-long recovery at around 1.1554. The pair strives a decisive break above the downward resistance trend line’s break level at 1.1538, turning it into an immediate pivot and reinforcing a constructive bias while it holds over this reclaimed barrier. Price also stands above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1472, suggesting dip-buying interest dominates as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the former trend-line break near 1.1538, with deeper demand expected around the 20-period EMA at 1.1472 if a pullback extends. The pair could return to the July low at 1.1353 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA.
Looking up, the pair needs to stabilize above the downward-sloping trendline to extend the advance towards 1.1600, followed by the May 29 high at 1.1686.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Last release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 44K
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
EUR/USD breaks long-running downtrend resistance Fed rate hike pricing pares back to 42bp by June 2027 Lower energy prices improve euro area outlook Payrolls, peace negotiations to determine whether breakout has legs EUR/USD has broken higher after spending much of this year trapped beneath downtrend resistance. Whether it sinks or swims will likely be determined by the incoming flow of US economic data and developments in the Gulf.
The stars align... for now One of the key factors that's changed over the past week has been the US rate outlook. While the latest US data has generally continued to point to an economy that's holding up well, markets have become a little less convinced about how much further the Federal Reserve will need to tighten.
Both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs outperformed expectations, while strength in the new orders components of both surveys points to the US economy continuing to chug along into the second half of the year.
Despite that, markets have pared back the amount of tightening priced by the June Fed meeting next year to around 42 basis points. Correlation analysis suggests EUR/USD has been tracking shifts in front-end US rates closely over the past week, helping to explain some of the move higher.
Source: TradingView
The other factor that's worked in the euro's favour has been the optimism that we'll eventually see some form of lasting peace deal in the Middle East. Whether that eventuates remains highly uncertain, but markets have responded by pushing energy prices lower once again.
That's important because Europe is a major net energy importer. Compared with the United States, which enjoys far greater energy security as the world's largest producer, lower oil and gas prices are a much bigger positive for the euro area economy. They reduce one of the key headwinds that has weighed on the common currency in recent months, easing the need for the ECB to respond aggressively to a supply-driven inflation shock that would otherwise have amplified the downside risks to economic activity.
Another factor that's probably helped the euro has been the intervention episode in Japan. It's highly unusual to see the US Treasury get involved in supporting another currency when we're not talking about a financial crisis or disorderly market conditions.
Why the US decided to get involved remains unclear. Whether it was about the yen, foreign demand for Treasuries, US FX competitiveness, or something else entirely, we simply don't know. What we do know is that it's put the US dollar on the back foot, providing a near-term tailwind for EUR/USD.
Clearly, the positives that have helped the euro not only come across as being very short-term factors, but there's also a lot of uncertainty as to whether they'll stick.
From a directional perspective for the euro, a lot of it will come down to the Gulf and Friday's US payrolls report, which really looms as the key factor given its ability to shift the Fed rate outlook.
EUR/USD breakout shifts focus higher
Source: TradingView
Turning to the charts, we saw a breakout from the minor downtrend that had been in place from the highs set back in the middle of July following last week's Fed meeting. That has since seen the pair extend the move, breaking above resistance at 1.1480 and the 50-day moving average to test the long-running downtrend that's been in place since late January.
After one false break on Monday that saw the pair retrace to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, we're now seeing a bounce and a close above that downtrend, creating the potential for a run higher.
1.1550 is an important level in the near term, marking where the pair stalled on Monday. If we manage to hold above that level, it opens the door to a test of the 100-day moving average. It has a much more chequered history in terms of influencing price action than the 50- and 200-day moving averages, but a push beyond it would put the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, and more importantly, the 200-day moving average, into focus.
A break above the latter would be significant given the way price has interacted with it in the past, creating the potential for a much larger bullish move.
Of course, if the pair fails to build on the breakout and retraces back beneath the trendline, it would add to the sense that bears remain in the ascendency. That would bring the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, along with the confluence of former resistance at 1.1480 and the 50-day moving average, back into play. A break beneath that zone would point to a much larger unwind towards the July lows.
The oscillators favour the breakout sticking. RSI (14) continues to set higher lows and higher highs while moving further away from the neutral 50 level, but is not yet overbought. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has flipped positive and continues to diverge further away from the signal line, building upside momentum. It's not a screaming buy signal by any stretch, but it does favour buying dips and bullish breakouts rather than trying to play it from the short side in the near term.
U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Focus On Job Market Data
DXY 050826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react to the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report. The report indicated that private businesses added 44,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of 70,000.
Traders also had a chance to take a look at the ISM Services PMI report for July. The report showed that ISM Services PMI improved from 54.0 in June to 54.1 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 54.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00 and pulled back towards the 99.75 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below 99.75, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range.
EUR/USD Tests The 1.1550 Level EUR/USD 050826 4h Chart EUR/USD is moving higher as traders focus on U.S. economic data. Rising oil prices did not put pressure on EUR/USD as traders believe that U.S. and Iran will reach a temporary deal soon.
EUR/USD moved above the resistance at 1.1510 – 1.1525 and is trying to settle above the 1.1550 level. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1525, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. RSI is close to the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, a move below the 1.1500 level will push EUR/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.1460. If EUR/USD declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support at 1.1420 – 1.1435.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As Rebound Continues GBP/USD 050826 4h Chart GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 as traders focus on general weakness of the American currency.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3480 level, it will move towards the resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565. On the support side, a move below the 1.3420 level will push GBP/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.3385.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025
USD/CAD 050826 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold and silver are up by +4% amid rising demand for precious metals. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. If USD/CAD manages to settle below 1.4010, it will head towards the next support at 1.3920 – 1.3935.
On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4064 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Stays Below The 158.00 Level USD/JPY 050826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 as traders are cautious after recent interventions from BoJ. Treasury yields are moving higher, but this move does not provide sufficient support to USD/JPY.
If USD/JPY manages to settle above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 50 MA at 160.84.
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The EUR/USD forecast is for a potential upside continuation as US Pres Trump says a Hormuz deal could be reached on Wednesday. The EUR/USD is inching higher this Wednesday as the US Dollar retreats following a shift in sentiment, with hopes for positive negotiations between the US and Iran on the geopolitical front gaining momentum. This Wednesday, the greenback is broadly lower as the markets digest the impact of falling US bond yields and softer US labor market indicators. Falling oil prices have also removed the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar, with investors now willing to assume more market risk.
Furthermore, the US Dollar is also taking a beating after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change surprised to the downside. US private sector employment as measured by this data set came in at 44K, lower than the market expectation of 68K and the prior of 95K.
The EUR/USD is currently trading 0.1% higher as of writing.
Today’s biggest macro driver is the decline in US bond yields due to softer US labor market data and reduced dollar appeal from falling oil prices and geopolitical de-escalation. Additional factors include profit-taking from recent dollar longs and rotation away from defensive dollar positioning toward a risk assumption.
2) Easing Geopolitical Fears
The recent pause in new US strikes has provided some relief to the markets on the geopolitical front. Despite the unresolved conflict, any headlines that point to a pause in hostilities are a piece of much-needed good news for a market that is looking drained by the elongated nature of the war. Oil prices are trading below $80 a barrel, suggesting a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and improved market sentiment.
3) Markets Now Reassessing the Fed Outlook
Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting was interpreted as a hawkish hold. However, the reduction in fuel prices, the lowering of US bond yields, and the underwhelming US labor data released so far are forcing markets to reassess the Fed’s outlook. If the NFP data points to a slowing of US public sector employment and further inflation data suggests moderation, the Fed expectations could start turning dovish.
4) Stable Eurozone Fundamentals
Despite the growth concerns and the impact of rising energy costs on the energy-import-dependent single area, the single currency is benefiting from the ECB’s cautious stance. Furthermore, recent inflation data (Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimates YoY: actual 2.5%, consensus/prior: 2.4) indicate that inflation has not disappeared totally. These factors are helping to create stability for ECB expectations and are currently supportive of Euro strength.
EUR/USD Near-Term Price Catalysts 1) US Data: Upcoming data from the US that will be on the watchlist of traders include Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Subsequently, the consumer spending and consumer/producer price index data will also hit the newswires. If the data points to lowered US economic resilience, the weakness in the US Dollar could continue.
2) US Treasury Yields: Declining US bond yields will lead to a reduced demand for USD-denominated assets, which invariably supports further gains on the EUR/USD. On the flip side, USD strength is restored if bond yields start rising once more.
3) Middle East geopolitics: Headlines around the state of shipping or military encounters in the Strait of Hormuz will impact oil prices. If there is a renewal of bombardments, the markets will interpret this as a sign of escalation, and this would revive the USD’s safe-haven appeal at the Euro’s detriment.
EUR/USD Forecast Scenarios Base case: moderate bullishness is expected, with the recent pullback in the USD expected to extend if US bond yields remain pressured. Furthermore, the cooling of geopolitical tensions and stable ECB policy expectations are expected to provide further support for the pair.
Bull case: a combination of weak US data, continued de-escalation on the geopolitical front, and additional declines in US bond yields could see more USD longs being liquidated. Under these conditions, the EUR/USD may reclaim the 1.1670 resistance level or higher.
Bear case: if US bond yields resume the upside trend, coupled with better-than-expected US data and renewed fighting between the US and Iran, this is supportive of a bear case scenario. This scenario sees a further widening in the interest yield differential between the Euro and US Dollar, and a retreat in Fed rate cut expectations. A retreat towards support levels below 1.14 is the price expectation here.
EUR/USD: Technical Outlook The break of the neckline at 1.1480 confirms the bottoming pattern (progressing rising lows at 1.1324 and 1.1363). This unlocks the door for a measured move that is expected to complete at 1.1577, the prior low of 19 January 2026 and the lower edge of the resistance zone, with 1.1581 as the upper edge. Only when this zone is breached can the 1.1671 resistance (30 April 2026 low and neckline of the 16 April and 12 May 2026 double top) become available as a new upside target.
Fig 1: EUR/USD daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 5 August 2026) On the flip side, this upside move is only invalidated if the bottoming price levels are degraded, which leaves room for continuation of the recent near-term downtrend towards 1.1269, the high of 17 July 2023. A further downside target at 1.1210 (23 September 2024 high) becomes the next downside target if 1.1269 is breached.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis EUR/USD technical analysis shows the currency pair rebounding off multi-year support after five straight weeks of testing, back into resistance. Michael Boutros, FOREX.com Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the euro-dollar picture across the monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the macro calendar shaping it. With the Federal Reserve back in focus, Boutros looks at how Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and the ADP employment report feed the next rate decision, and why market-implied odds of a September rate hike have slid from around four in five toward a coin flip. Eurozone retail sales and the broader U.S. dollar trend round out a week where the data, not the chart, may steer the next move.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The currency markets have no major announcements to focus on today, so ranges are likely to be watched by most.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EURUSD trades around 1.15462, extending its climb to fresh highs above both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. The euro looks like it is testing the 1.1560 level, an area that had been important previously on a swing high, so we’ll have to see if we can break above there. It certainly looks like it’s struggling, but I also recognize that recently the 1.15 level had been support. Typically speaking, this is a pretty choppy pair, and when we zoom out on the longer-term charts, we start to see that we are approaching an area that historically has seen a lot of chop and noise. So a little bit of a pullback here would not be surprising to me at all. Certainly, we are seeing interest rates in America try to turn back around to the upside during the early part of the session, so something worth keeping an eye on.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis USDCHF trades around 0.80930, holding below the 0.81000 level and both its 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. Currently, the US dollar and the Swiss franc seem to be very consolidated, and this is typical for this pair. But the interest rate differential most certainly favors the US dollar, and carry traders will be attracted to the wide spread here that they collect at any close of the day, especially with a lot of traders on Wednesday getting triple swap. Looks like the area right around 0.81 continues to be a magnet for price.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD trades around 1.34708, pushing back toward its recent high above both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. And finally, the British pound is stretching towards the 1.35 level. This is a lot like the euro in the sense that we had reached close to a swing high and failed a bit. Rates in the United States climbing a little bit early may provide a little bit of a headwind as well. 1.35 being broken would obviously be a strong headline because of the large round psychological number. It could bring in more buyers; we’d have to wait and see.
Currently, the 1.3435 level or so looks to be support. Could be range-bound. Today has no major economic announcements of any serious consequence. And with that, it would make sense if traders were a little bit range-bound and indecisive.
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The Euro (EUR) trades 0.15% higher at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar faces selling pressure ahead of a busy North American session.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 99.70.
Markets eye US data and Fed speakers amid mixed policy signalsAnalysts at Danske Bank note that attention today will center on a potential SOH deal announcement alongside key US data releases, including July private sector employment from ADP and the July reading of the ISM Services index. They point out that "ADP's weekly estimates have pointed towards cooling employment growth from June," while the ISM Services print will be watched closely after "the earlier flash PMI pointing to an uptick in business activity."
On the policy front, Danske highlights a busy slate of Fed communication, with "the Fed's Cook (voter, neutral) on the wires in the evening, while Daly (non-voter) is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks overnight into Thursday." The bank also underscores the divergence in recent Fed commentary: Kansas City Fed's Schmid, described as a "non-voter, hawk," argued that monetary policy is "not yet restrictive given strong demand and investment," signaling that "further tightening may be needed." In contrast, Philly Fed's Paulson, a "voter, dove," pushed back against rapid rate hikes, saying policy is likely already "mildly restrictive" and that it "was not a close call to keep rates steady (in July)."
On the Euro front, investors seek fresh cues regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate expectations. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note that ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1550. The pair trades close to the downward resistance trend line and above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1462, which collectively suggests a constructive near-term bias.
Momentum aligns with this view, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 is pushing into bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is at the 20-day EMA near 1.1462, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on a deeper pullback. Below that, the pair could extend the decline towards the July 28 low at 1.1353. Looking up, the pair could extend the advance towards 1.1600 if it manages to break above the downward-sloping trendline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
The Euro took advantage on the Intervention with the Yen to test the downtrend as we see from the chart, which in return pushed for a correction
A trading zone between 1.1435 and 1.1560 could hold prices until one of the boundaries break.
Above 1.1560 could open the door towards 1.1685 and 1.1795.
Below 1.1435 more of a drop toward 1.1320 and 1.1210 is likely.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.435-80 1.1560 LEVEL2 1.1320 1.1685 LEVEL3 1.1210 1.1795 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Key Points:Markets are focused on Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh Fed policy clues.ADP employment, jobless claims, and labor market data will shape September rate expectations.Softer U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening.EUR/USD watches eurozone data as traders assess the ECB's policy outlook.GBP/USD remains supported ahead of key UK labor and growth data while DXY tests major technical support.
US Dollar News: NFP Forecasts and Fed Outlook Drive FX Markets Changes in Federal Reserve policy are the primary drivers of U.S. Dollar trading as market participants analyze upcoming U.S. Labor market data in advance of the July non-Farm Payrolls. This week’s data points include the release of the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday, the weekly jobless claims report due out on Thursday, and the Friday release of the Payrolls report.
Current estimates suggest the U.S. economy added approximately 95,000 jobs in July, down from 121,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase to 4.4% from 4.3%. Earlier this week the job openings data from the JOLTS report for June fell and added evidence that Labor market demand is cooling. Given the recent softer data and lower oil prices, the futures market pegged the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September at 59% down from the 67% probability earlier this week.
The Euro is benefitting from waning concerns regarding imported inflation in the Eurozone after a dip in energy prices. Market focus is still on the ECB’s decision to leave the deposit rate at 2.25% last month, but market participants are looking to the German release of Industrial Production and Eurozone Retail Sales data for indications on the possible stabilization of the economy. ECB officials stress a meeting by meeting focus as inflation nears the 2% target with the possible re-ignition of price inflation from geopolitical concerns. Economic data of a Eurozone negative growth signal would also support the case for a rate pause.
Sterling is drawing support from falling energy prices after a recent positive engagement between the United States, Iran, and Qatar, which has eased concern about protracted supply disruptions across the Middle East. With the Bank of England having decided on leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% last week, the focus has now turned to the upcoming UK labour market and growth data.
Investors are watching the UK data to see if inflation is trending down without a substantial negative effect on activity, while the general sentiment in the markets is being influenced by the US Payroll data due on Friday and the changing outlook on US Federal Reserve policy.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Bears Eye Trendline Breakdown Below 99.95 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 99.84, below the 50-day EMA at 100.41, and supports the long-term ascending trendline at 99.42. The Index has recently attempted to recover the 100.27-100.53 Fibonacci resistance zone. This suggests that price action remains in a downtrend.
The 100-day EMA is located at 99.92, and has offered support. A daily close below the 99.42 long-term trendline support suggests stronger price action to the downside, with 98.76 and 97.95 as potential price targets. Bullish price action would require price action to close above 100.27. Further price targets would then be 100.80 and 101.17.
The RSI is presently at 37 and suggests that price action on the DXY is in a downtrend. Until the Index closes above 100.27, the RSI suggests that price action will continue to favor the downside.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Retain Control Above Key Fibonacci Support
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview After a strong bounce from the 1.3274 swing low, GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3456. The bullish structure is further strengthened by the GBP/USD pair trading above the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, which are presently at 1.3409 and 1.3392, respectively.
Currently, price action is maintaining a bullish structure as it is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3452. Price action above there opens the possibility of a move higher toward 1.3506, with a break above opening up 1.3559. Price action below there opens the possibility of a move toward 1.3418, then 1.3390, and finally 1.3363. Losing any of these levels would be a negative development for the current bullish structure.
RSI is near 58, indicating positive momentum without overbought conditions. While the pair may consolidate after its recent rally, holding above 1.3418 keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Recovery Faces Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1534, from where a significant bullish momentum pushed price to the 50 day MA, and now it is trading in a portion of the resistance zone at 1.1510-1.1559. Currently, price is also testing the lower boundary of the descending trendline from early 2026.
1.1559 will be the next level of resistance, and after that 1.1622 and 1.1668 will be next. Bulls will eventually need to overcome the trendline to confirm a bullish reversal, which would then create a path to the 1.1703 level. The lower boundary of the resistance zone is at 1.1510, followed by 1.1474 and then the strong level of support at 1.1439.
The bullish momentum has been confirmed by the RSI, which has recently broken above 60. As long as the price is trading above.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlights that EUR/USD firmed to 1.1529, with short‑term momentum turning slightly higher. They see scope for the Euro to edge up but doubt an intraday break of 1.1565, with 1.1545 as nearer resistance and 1.1515/1.1500 as supports. On a 1–3 week horizon, a close above 1.1565 could open 1.1600, while 1.1470 remains strong support.
Upside bias constrained by resistance"24-HOUR VIEW: When EUR was at 1.1510 in the early Asian trade yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase between 1.1485 and 1.1540.” EUR then traded within a narrow range of 1.1501/1.1534 before settling at 1.1529 (+0.19%). There has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher today. Given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.1545. Support is at 1.1515; a breach of 1.1500 would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR rose sharply and closed higher by 1.41% last week. On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated the following: “The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 1.1470 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1455) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to test 1.1565."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro (EUR) trades marginally higher at around 1.1536 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
According to estimates, US private employers hired 70K fresh workers, lower than 98K in June.
The impact of the US private sector employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations as officials have stopped providing so-called “forward guidance”.
Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to trade strongly amid firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates.
Markets hold firm on September ECB hike expectationsAccording to TD Securities, market pricing remains aligned with its policy outlook, with investors "continue to fully price a 25bp ECB rate hike in September, which remains our base case." The bank sees no material shift yet in expectations around the upcoming meeting, underscoring the persistence of a hawkish bias in Eurozone rate markets.
While remarks from ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher, released last week, showed that he remained data-dependent for the monetary policy outlook. However, Kocher has made clear that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target on a sustainable basis.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades at around 1.1537, holding above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1461, keeping the near-term bias constructive.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests positive momentum but is not yet in overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control as long as price stays above the short-term EMA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the downward resistance trend line break price at 1.1544, and a clear daily close above this barrier would strengthen the bullish outlook. On the downside, the 20-period EMA at 1.1461 offers initial support, and a drop back below this moving average would signal fading bullish pressure and expose the pair to the July 28 low at 1.1353.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Kocher flags data-dependent autumn decisions as geopolitical risks cloud Euro outlookKocher’s 5.6/10 score on FXS Speechtracker falls below the historic 6.3/10 average, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook underscores lingering upside risks to Euro area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.
The pledge that the ECB Governing Council will decide in autumn based on incoming data to bring Euro area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but still anti-inflation stance. For the Euro, the combination of acknowledged inflation risks and conditional commitment to the 2% target suggests limited immediate policy aggression, but keeps the door open to renewed tightening rhetoric if energy-driven price pressures re-intensify into autumn.
US Dollar Talking Points: The carry trade in USD/JPY has been building for more than five years now and the Japanese Yen weakness that’s seen the pair rise by more than 50% over that time is a large point of imbalance across global foreign exchange markets. The Bank of Japan has no dire need for near-term rate hikes, as Japanese inflation is currently at 1.6-1.7%. They also have an inflation target of 2% but unlike the US, inflation is currently subdued below that waypoint. Nonetheless, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that Japanese officials should look to tighter policy following the posture around interventions last week after the FOMC and BoJ rate decisions.
It’s truly a conundrum for the Bank of Japan. On one hand, they’d probably prefer it if the Japanese Yen didn’t weaken dramatically against global currencies, like the US Dollar. But on the other, there’s no pressing demand for a rate hike as their inflation levels remain below the bank’s 2% target.
Allowing the currency to fall rapidly runs the risk of bringing on unsavory levels of inflation, which would require rate hikes and, in-turn, a threat to Japanese growth. And for a country with an aging and declining population who spent decades struggling with deflation and disinflation, risking that growth is a pretty unsavory concept particularly when there’s not a massive current demand for such.
On the part of the United States, however, there’s a couple of reasons that they would want to see some form of action. The USD/JPY spot rate sits near recently-established 40-year highs. As the second largest component of the DXY basket, the significant JPY weakness of the past five years has kept the value of DXY elevated, which makes trade a more difficult venture for the United States as exported products are more expensive and imports are relatively cheaper.
But perhaps the biggest risk – is that if Japanese policymakers wanted to continue to try to have their cake and eat it too, by using interventions to run stops on market participants while trying to draw some artificial line in the sand, without hiking rates to address the fundamental divergence between the two economies rate policies – that would probably entail Japan selling US Treasuries. And that would mean even higher US Treasury yields, and we’ve already seen the 30-year bond push up to a fresh 19-year high.
So this is really a story wrapped in intrigue and it can have repercussions far and wide depending on how aggressively it spins out of control.
That global carry trade is, in essence, a form of leverage. We saw what happens when just some of that leverage gets taken out back in July of 2024, when the BoJ intervened on the morning of a US CPI print and despite markets finally getting the confirmation they needed that rate cuts were on the way, the Nasdaq 100 put in a bearish engulf and then sold off with aggression over the next few weeks.
The reason was some of that leverage brought upon by the carry trade was taken out as USD/JPY unwound, and that hit levered markets like high flying AI tech stocks until calm started to return on the morning of August 5th.
We’re not at that point yet, but if Scott Bessent has his way the situation could produce unwelcome and unexpected repercussions fairly soon.
Where this matters for the US Dollar – it’s been obvious for some time that the current administration would like a weaker USD. Trump has said as much, extolling the benefit of a weak currency for exporting goods while making domestic goods more competitive on a cost basis. Those efforts have largely fallen flat over the past year-and-change as the USD is roughly flat since last April, and a big reason why is the run in USD/JPY which extended after last year’s election of Sanae Takaichi, thereby putting both central banks in a precarious spot.
For now, it’s difficult to get too excited about USD/JPY above 160.00 as that’s the type of level that may evoke another intervention or a threat of such. Meanwhile, the fundamental bias remains tilted to the long side of the pair and thusly, for the US Dollar as a whole, there’s a lean towards trend strategies for short-term strength and breakout strategies for broader weakness.
US Dollar Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY
Last week was one of the largest red bars in USD/JPY since that July 2024 episode, and already for this week it looks like bulls are starting to make a return. It’s still too early to say that the dust has settled but it also highlights what I was talking about in the weekend video, where interventions at or around that 155.00 level seem to make little sense. Thus, we’ve seen buyers return to bid the dip but what remains to be seen is whether there is another swing of intervention above 158 or perhaps upon a test of the 160.00 handle.
USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Despite the Euro being a 57.6% allocation of the DXY basket it really does feel like the larger currency pair is along for the ride.
This makes sense if we consider that USD/JPY is up more than 50% over the past five years – and given that the only thing that can actually push price in a real market is demand it highlights that there’s still an imbalance of longs v/s shorts. And when that comes into question, even just a little bit, that USD-selling could happen across currency pairs and not just against the Japanese Yen.
I talked about this in last week’s webinar and I reiterated it this week. At this point it’s the 1.1500 level in EUR/USD that’s held the lows now for two consecutive days and there’s bullish structure in place down to the Friday swing low of 1.1455.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD Cable built in a similar falling wedge into the Fed last week, and the response there was perhaps even more emphatic as buyers pounced on the bullish reversal. The challenge now for the pair is that 1.3500 level but there’s higher-low support potential around 1.3390 for bullish continuation scenarios.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/CAD USD/CAD looks somewhat calm on a relative basis, following last week’s test and hold a the 1.4000 level. Following that test on Thursday, we’ve had higher lows, illustrating an element of bullish anticipation as buyers have stepped in with a bit more aggression over the past couple of days. This keeps the door open for short-term strength and for those looking for USD-strength, this may be a less chaotic backdrop than what showed in USD/JPY and perhaps a bit cleaner than EUR/USD or perhaps even GBP/USD which are vying for possible bullish trend scenarios.
USD/CAD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Key Points:EUR/USD gained ground as traders focused on U.S. job market data. GBP/USD moved higher, supported by falling Treasury yields. USD/JPY made an attempt to settle above the 158.00 level as the market stabilized after recent intervention.
U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As JOLTs Job Openings Miss Estimates
DXY 040826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to the weaker-than-expected JOLTs Job Openings report. The report indicated that JOLTs Job Openings declined from 7.537 million (revised from 7.594 million) to 7.359 million, compared to analyst forecast of 7.4 million.
In case U.S. Dollar Index pulls back below the 99.85 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. On the upside, a move above the 100.00 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.
EUR/USD Tests The 1.1525 Level
EUR/USD 040826 4h Chart EUR/USD gains ground as traders focus on U.S. job market data and react to U.S. Factory Orders report. The report showed that Factory Orders decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%. The weaker-than-expected report put additional pressure on the American currency.
EUR/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1525 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1600 – 1.1615.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Fall GBP/USD 040826 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders focus on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.63%.
The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3465 – 1.3480 range. A successful test of this level will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Moves Higher As Rebound Continues USD/CAD 040826 4h Chart USD/CAD continues to rebound despite the better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI report from Canada. The report showed that Manufacturing PMI improved from 53.0 in June to 53.5 in July, while analysts expected that it would drop to 50.2. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4067. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will move towards the nearest resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
On the support side, a successful test of the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025 will push USD/CAD towards the next support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935.
USD/JPY Tests Resistance At 157.50 – 158.00 USD/JPY 040826 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving away from recent lows as the market stabilizes after major intervention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a stable yen was important for the U.S. and for the entire region of Asia. He added that U.S. was in close contact with Japan.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY manages to settle above 158.00, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 50 MA at 161.57. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan is ready for another intervention in the near term.
On the support side, USD/JPY needs to settle below the support at 154.50 – 155.00 to gain additional downside momentum in the near term. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is enough room to gain momentum.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Scotiabank’s analysts observe that the Euro is consolidating around the 1.15 area against the Dollar, with limited Eurozone data to drive price action. They point to last week’s sharp move higher stalling at a broader bear-trend line and stress that a break above 1.1565 is needed to extend gains, while support is seen in the 1.1460/1.1480 region.
Euro holds gains near 1.15"The EUR is little changed on the session. There were no major data reports from the Eurozone area on the session and spot appears to be content to consolidate recent gains through the 1.15 area."
"Reports suggest some net inflows into Eurozone bonds as global investors reduce exposure to US Treasury debt"
"Neutral—The snap higher in EUR/USD last week stalled at a key technical point—the broader bear trend that has guided the EUR lower from the January peak."
"Technical pointers lean EUR-bullish after a solid rise overall last week but a break above 1.1565 trend resistance is needed to lift the EUR further. Support is 1.1460/80."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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EURUSD remains constructive and holding above 1.1500 mark (round-figure / broken upper bull-channel boundary) for the fourth consecutive day, despite Monday’s pullback from new highest since June 17 that warned of potential stall of the latest recovery rally from 1.1353 to 1.1559.
Bulls were so far unable to register a clear break above Fibo barrier at 1.1524 (38.2% of 1.1849/1.1324 descend) and additionally capped by falling trendline off 1.1849 (currently at 1.1533), but the following action found footstep at 1.1500 (guarding another significant support at 1.1465, provided by daily cloud base), keeping near term bias with bulls, despite fading bullish momentum and overbought stochastic on daily chart.
Weaker dollar contributes to Euro’s positively aligned near term outlook, though sustained break of 1.1524/33 pivots remain required to validate scenario and signal bullish continuation and unmask next barriers at 1.1567 (100DMA); 1.1586 (daily cloud top) and 1.1627 (200DMA) in extension.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The Euro (EUR) trades with caution at around Monday’s low of 1.1500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain volatile as investors await key United States (US) economic release this week to get meaningful cues regarding the interest rate outlook.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Monday’s gains at around 100.00.
Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The impact of the US official employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as the central bank has suspended delivering so called “forward guidance” on interest rates from the June policy meeting.
Later in the day, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June is scheduled to be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.
On the Eurozone front, traders seem increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have said in a report that the ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.
EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1500 at press time. The pair holds a modest bullish near-term bias as price advances above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1451, suggesting underlying demand after reclaiming that short-term trend reference.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.1 stays below overbought territory yet leans higher, hinting that buying pressure remains constructive while not stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the downward-sloping trend-line break level at 1.1555, which caps further gains and marks the next hurdle of 1.1600 for bulls; above that, the pair would extend its upside journey towards the May 29 high at 1.1686. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1451; a daily close back below this floor would weaken the current positive tone and expose the pair to the July 28 high at 1.1353.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 100.05. After last week’s steep drop, this confirms efforts to reestablish a trading range. From the daily chart, the DXY has found support from a long-term ascending trendline that has guided price action since February. DXY buyers have defended the 99.48 horizontal support and prevented price action from weakening even further.
Current price action balances the 100 day EMA at 99.93 with the 50 day EMA at 100.44. A sustained upside break from the current trading range at 100.45 supports a bullish trend and targets 101.61, subsequently 102.66. Outside of the 50 day EMA, price action has not confirmed the trend resurgence. The support of the trendline would guide price action to defend 99.48 and subsequently 98.53.
Momentum indicators have yet to confirm the strength of the bullish trend. The RSI has recovered from oversold levels, but remains below the neutral 50 level confirming the bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed. The strength of the bullish trend will be confirmed with a daily close above 100.45. Until then major resistance levels reside around 100.45 to support 101.61, 102.66, and 99.48 to 98.53.
Current bias remains neutral, but is leaning bullish as long as price action holds above 99.48. Confirmation of the bullish trend will be confirmed with a move above.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights EUR/USD’s recent sharp rise and subsequent consolidation after a failed attempt to sustain gains above 1.1558. Intraday, the Euro is expected to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540, while a close above 1.1565 could open the way toward 1.1600. Longer term, a break of 1.1390/1.1410 targets 1.1210.
Range trade while eyeing 1.1565"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply. When EUR was at 1.1530 yesterday, we highlighted that it “could continue to rebound but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance.” We added, “to keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510.” Our view did not materialise, as EUR rose briefly to 1.1558, fell to 1.1499 and then closed at 1.1507 (-0.17%). The current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR rose sharply and closed higher by 1.41% last week. Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated the following: “The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.1455 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
I am already riding a EURUSD sell entry. I posted the sell July 30 2026 on social media @AidanFX : “EURUSD Sold at 1.1531 Stop Loss at 1.1616 Target at 1.1361” and expecting a move lower.
EURUSD Daily Chart July 30 2026
A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.
Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX
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Recovery in the Dollar Index, USDJPY, Euro and EURJPY from sharp movements seen over the past few sessions looks relieving today. The Dollar Index can rise back towards 100.50 while Euro can fall back towards 1.14. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise back towards 159 and 184 respectively while the recovery continues to the upside. EURINR is holding below resistance at 110.30 while Aussie and Pound are attempting to rise in the very near term before they can see a correction. USDCNY and USDINR quotes higher. A rise to 6.76/78 and 95.50/75 could be on the cards for the near term. The RBI policy meeting is due tomorrow were the markets expect the repo rate to be kept unchanged.
The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable. There is limited room on the downside. We expect the support to hold. The yields can rise back from there and resume the uptrend. The German Yields have come down sharply. But support can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its day’s high yesterday. Resistance can cap the upside. The yield is likely to turn down and resume its overall downtrend. The RBI meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.
Global equities have turned stronger. Dow and DAX have broken above key resistance levels and can rise further towards 54000-55000 and 26500-27000 respectively while holding above 53000 and 26000. Nifty remains bullish after a strong gap-up rally and can extend its gains towards 24900-25000, with a break above 25000 opening the way towards 25500-26000. Nikkei continues to face resistance near 66000 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 61000-60000 while below this level. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound within the 3750-3900 range for some time.
Brent and WTI are likely to remain within the $80-$100 and $75-$95 ranges respectively. Gold and Silver can continue to trade within the $4000-$4200 and $55-$60 ranges respectively. Copper remains constructive and needs a sustained break above $6.60 to extend its rally towards $6.70-$6.80. Natural Gas continues to move sideways but remains vulnerable to a decline towards $2.65 in the near term.
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EUR/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.1500 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to hold losses as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, despite lingering hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran. Any signs of escalating tensions between the two nations could drive crude oil prices higher, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates at elevated levels for longer.
Diplomatic signals remain tense over the critical waterway. US President Donald Trump announced that his latest offer of talks is a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major attack on the Islamic Republic. Trump expressed expectations that negotiations would begin shortly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address US concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program.
However, General Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected these conditions, stating that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait and warning that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose will be targeted.
On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing changes to the central bank's operations. Reports indicate Warsh has floated a proposal to hold six rate-setting meetings per year, supplemented by two additional meetings focused on broader economic policy.
Market participants are now turning their attention to Friday's US July jobs report for further guidance on the path of US interest rates. Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to increase by 83,000—up from 57,000 previously—while the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in June.
Meanwhile, the Euro could see support from improving risk sentiment following a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which fell on hopes of an eventual US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease regional conflict fears. While the drop in oil prices led money markets to modestly scale back expectations for further European Central Bank tightening, a rate hike by September remains largely priced in.
Euro CTA positioning mapped across big downtape to flat tape scenariosAccording to TD Securities, their CTA Tracker provides a detailed “CTA positioning est., EUR” across a range of market environments, explicitly covering “big downtape CTA positioning est., EUR, downtape CTA positioning est., EUR, flat tape.” The framework allows systematic Euro futures exposure to be assessed consistently as the tape shifts from more pronounced downside conditions through to neutral trading ranges.
· USDJPY sinks below 200-SMA as Japan fires intervention ahead of NFP
· EURUSD tests key resistance trendline after exciting rally
· Gold continues to flatline as rate hike expectations weigh. Is a breakout approaching?
US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPYAccording to reports, the US and Japan finally stepped in to support the yen, sending USDJPY almost 5% lower toward May's low near 155. Hopes that the US and Iran could return to negotiations added to the selling pressure on Monday.
From a technical perspective, this intervention looks more meaningful than previous ones, as the pair has slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in nearly a year. That puts the bears in control for now, although history shows intervention-driven moves can fade if the Bank of Japan refrains from confidently signaling further rate hikes.
The spotlight now turns to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it clear that future policy will depend on incoming data, leaving markets highly sensitive to this week's releases. Payrolls are expected to show another muted increase of 83k in July, pushing the unemployment rate slightly up to 4.3% while holding average hourly earnings flat at 3.5% y/y. Since Kevin Warsh is firmly committed to a data-dependent approach, traders will be watching closely to see whether the private ADP report and ISM PMIs can spark a more volatile market reaction ahead of the NFP release.
A softer set of numbers could drag USDJPY toward 153.95, with 51.80-152 coming into focus next. On the other hand, payroll growth above 100k could help the pair reclaim its 200-day SMA at 157.80, while a move above 158.30 would put buyers back in charge.
Eurozone retail sales → EUR/USDThe eurozone calendar is fairly quiet this week after July inflation unexpectedly picked up, reviving expectations that the ECB could still raise interest rates by 25bps as early as September despite trying to downplay inflation expectations during last week's policy meeting.
With retail sales the only major release, EURUSD is likely to take its direction from the US dollar. The pair is already testing an important resistance area, and a break above 1.1560 could pave the way toward 1.1600-1.1630. If the dollar regains strength instead, a drop below 1.1500 could initially pause near 1.1420 and then stretch to 1.1350-1.1365.
Geopolitics → GoldGold continues to trade sideways for a fifth straight week within a symmetrical triangle and near June’s lows. Reports that President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and resumed talks with Tehran did little to move the metal on Monday, while higher Treasury yields and caution ahead of Friday's jobs report capped upside pressures.
For the bulls, a break above 4,135-4,200 and the 50-day SMA could trigger a rally toward the 4,340 resistance area. Alternatively, if US data surprises to the upside and reinforces September rate-hike expectations, a move below 3,950-4,000 could hand control back to the bears.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as Germany's Retail Sales missed analyst estimates. USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies. USD/JPY moved away from session lows as traders reacted to recent interventions.
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To ISM Manufacturing PMI Report
DXY 030826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI report. The report indicated that ISM Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 54. ISM Manufacturing Employment grew from 49.7 to 52.8, compared to analyst consensus of 49.8. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
EUR/USD Pulls Back As Germany’s Retail Sales Miss Estimates
EUR/USD 030826 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to the disappointing Retail Sales report from Germany. The report showed that Retail Sales decreased by -1.1% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.5%.
From the technical point of view, EUR/USD made an attempt to settle above the resistance level at 1.1510 – 1.1525 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back towards the 1.1500 level. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below 1.1500, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range.
GBP/USD Moves Lower Amid Profit-Taking GBP/USD 030826 4h Chart GBP/USD pulls back as traders take some profits off the table after the strong rally and react to ISM Manufacturing PMI report from the U.S.
A move below the 1.3400 level will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If GBP/USD climbs above 1.3480, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565.
USD/CAD 030826 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also losing ground in today’s trading session.
USD/CAD climbed above the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025 and is trying to settle above the 1.4050 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will move towards the 50 MA at 1.4070. If USD/CAD manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Moves Away From Session Lows
USD/JPY 030826 4h Chart USD/JPY attempts to rebound after interventions from Japan and U.S. It is not clear how mcuh U.S. spent to provide support to the yen, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would not hesitate to get back into the market.
U.S. officials decided to intervene as Japan could be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to raise money for currency interventions. The yield of 30-year Treasuries is at multi-decade highs, and additional pressure from Japan’s sales could trigger a major sell-off in U.S. bond markets.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 157.00 level, it will move towards the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 159.50 – 160.00.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The euro’s recovery against the dollar has strengthened, but Bank of America still sees scope for a near-term pullback. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) slipped to around 1.1504 on Monday after opening near 1.1548, leaving the pair at the bottom of its intraday range.
Image: Today's EUR/USD intraday chart EUR/USD ended July around 1.1530, having recovered from a monthly low near 1.1354.
The pair remains 1.7% lower for 2026, with this year’s trading range extending from 1.1325 to 1.2075.
Image: The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate - historical year-to-date chart for 2026 Bank of America says the July Fed press conference “injected uncertainty around the Fed’s inflation-fighting commitment and reaction function”.
The bank described the meeting as “doved and confused”, with Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting that financial markets had already delivered some of the tightening that might otherwise have required higher rates.
BofA said this was “not reassuring”, adding that the Dollar should respond differently to “a central bank credibly doing the tightening” than one which “outsources the tightening to the market”.
That credibility concern has shifted the near-term risk balance against the Dollar. However, BofA still sees support from resilient US economic conditions, artificial-intelligence investment and geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank also believes the Fed may ultimately need to respond more forcefully.
“Ironically, we think the need to re-establish credibility increases the probability that the Fed will hike in September,” BofA said.
Its economists continue to forecast three 25-basis-point increases over the remaining meetings of 2026.
BofA forecasts EUR/USD at 1.12 in September, 1.15 at year-end and 1.20 by the end of 2027.
The Euro’s technical recovery has improved after the late-July surge, but 1.1500 remains the immediate test.
A sustained hold above it would keep 1.1555 and 1.1600 in view, while a renewed break lower would expose 1.1450 and the 1.1370 area.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Following the strong recovery of the euro against the US dollar last week, slight indecision has reemerged on the EUR/USD chart. This is reflected in early week trading fluctuations, which now show a price decline of around -0.2%, indicating modest short-term strength for the dollar. For now, this shift is paving the way for a neutral scenario following the recent bullish pressure. This pause may be tied to the lingering threat of higher interest rates in the United States and a potential rebound for the greenback after its recent depreciation. If these factors persist, consolidation could become the dominant theme in the coming sessions.
Is the FED Still Relevant? Last week was crucial for the US monetary policy outlook. The Federal Reserve announcement featured comments that remain focused on the central bank's 2.00% inflation target, an objective yet to be achieved and heavily emphasized during the meeting. However, statements from FED Chair Kevin Warsh failed to confirm an overly aggressive stance for the coming months. Markets, anticipating more decisive signals, triggered a pronounced drop in dollar demand during those sessions.
The context now looks slightly different following the central bank announcements. A couple of sessions ago, the core PCE Price Index for June was released. This is the official inflation gauge tracking price changes for consumed goods and services while excluding volatile items like food and energy. The June data showed the index settling around 3.3%. Although slightly below the year's peak of 3.4%, it has yet to show a significant enough decline to establish a clear downward trend in overall inflation. To some extent, this highlights lingering inflationary pressures still embedded in the economy.
Source: TradingEconomics
This data release likely played a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve September decision. A week ago, the probability according to CMEGROUP of a potential rate hike on September 16 to a new benchmark zone of 4.00% in the United States stood at around 55%. Today, following the inflation data, that probability has climbed to nearly 62%. This underscores that the market may still be pricing in a possible rate increase due to persistent inflationary pressures expected to linger in the US economy over the coming months.
Source: CMEGROUP
Taking all this into account, the prospect of the US central bank potentially raising interest rates in September could be helping the US dollar hold its ground in the short term. This is particularly noticeable after last week's loss of momentum, which allowed the euro to steadily regain ground. If the probability matrix for the FED continues to highlight a potential rate hike next month, dollar-denominated investments will likely remain attractive. This is because the US interest rate remains higher than Europe's, making it harder for the euro to resume its recovery easily and reinforcing a more solid phase of consolidation in the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Long-term trendline holds firm: For several months, average fluctuations in the EUR/USD have been defined by a long-term bearish trendline, which remains the most critical technical structure to watch. Despite the recent price recovery, buying pressure has not been strong enough to break through this line in the short term. Until a more robust bullish momentum emerges, this pattern will remain the primary technical driver for upcoming sessions.
RSI: Currently, the RSI is consistently fluctuating above the 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum has dominated over the last 14 sessions. However, the indicator's curve has started to flatten. Over time, this could signal fading buying momentum, pointing to increased market indecision in the near term.
TRIX: The TRIX also remains below the neutral 0 line, confirming that bearish pressure in the exponential moving averages is still relevant. If it fails to cross the neutral threshold, the broader chart will likely remain weighed down by the bearish bias that has dominated recent months.
Key Levels:
1.16033 (Key Resistance): This previous high acts as the most important bullish barrier above the long-term bearish trendline dominating the chart. A sustained price move and close above this level could trigger a breakout of the current technical structure, opening the door for a new short-term bullish trendline to take shape.
1.14801 (Nearby Barrier): This level corresponds to a significant retracement zone and coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. Failure of the price to consistently move away from this area could highlight ongoing indecision, potentially leading to the formation of a prolonged sideways channel.
1.14300 (Ultimate Support): This level aligns with a retracement zone from previous weeks and stands as the most crucial psychological support. A drop back below this threshold could revive a dormant bearish bias and reinforce the extension of the long-term bearish trendline as the dominant structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
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EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.
Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.
Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.
On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.
Disclaimer
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EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.
Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.
Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.
On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index sits around 99.79, approaching significant support due to the long-term ascending trendline intersecting with the 100-day EMA (99.92). After buying pressure was absorbed around 101.61, the Index was pressed to the psychological 100.00, but the broader uptrend is still in effect.
Now the 100-day EMA at 100.45 is the first point of resistance, and the RSI indicates a bearish trend may be losing momentum due to the recent fall to 34. A daily close at 99.47 or lower would negate the uptrend, with a target at 98.53, then 97.63. If prices hold above the trendline, expect a move to 100.45, with the 101.61 target remaining in effect.
While the trend remains bullish, and prices are above the trendline, the next few daily candles will dictate whether the trend remains bullish, or a deeper correction is in effect.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: GBP Approaches Important Resistance Level at 1.3500
Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag. He stresses that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September decision and this week’s US data will determine whether EUR/USD tests 1.1615/20 resistance or falls back below 1.15.
Fed decision to steer trend"EUR/USD should probably be doing better, buoyed by decent eurozone hard data last week, lower oil prices and lots of dollar selling from Japan. The fact that it is not may partially be owed to the news that US authorities were checking rates in – and possibly selling – EUR/JPY on Friday. However, we doubt such news will have any lasting impact on the euro."
"For reference, the US Treasury only has around $13bn of euro-denominated FX reserves to sell ($1.2bn in deposits, $11.7bn in securities), which is barely a drop in the ocean compared to Tokyo's activity in FX markets and the size of global FX flows."
"We suspect the US Treasury might have sold EUR/JPY – in effect raising yen investments at the Exchange Stabilisation Fund at the expense of the euro – to avoid having to explain to the US public why it was selling the dollar."
"The bigger and more lasting driver of the EUR/USD trend will be the Fed's September decision. That remains unresolved, and US data this week will have a big say if we end the week pressing 1.1615/20 resistance or trading back below 1.15."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
