Crude oil and bond markets are flashing warning signs for risk assets. Yet, investors seem remarkably relaxed. However, if the current situation doesn’t improve markedly, we could see stock markets stage a bit of a correction and in the FX space risk-sensitive currency pairs could take a dip. With that in mind, the risks to the near-term EUR/USD outlook remain titled to the downside. With CPI still a day away, all the focus is on crude oil and US-Iran headlines.
Crude oil remains the key risk for EUR/USD outlook Crude oil prices have surged in the last few days because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and there are no signs of progress between the US and Iran.
Oil prices have been rising sharply in the last few days. Today, they were up more than 2% earlier, with Brent briefly reaching around $89 dollars a barrel, before giving back some of those gains.
Source: TradingView.com The latest headlines around talks between Oman and Iran provided some relief, but we shouldn’t confuse talks with an actual breakthrough. Indeed, Iran has come out saying that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until their conditions are met.
But current standings from both the US and Iran suggests any potential deal is still some way off, meaning risks remain skewed to the upside for oil prices and to the downside for EUR/USD.
Concerns about supply shortages are also evidenced in oil inventories data in the US, where crude stockpiles are now at their lowest level in more than four decades.
If oil (and gas) prices continue to push higher, this will be bad news for energy importing regions like the eurozone, making the EUR/USD outlook somewhat bearish.
Don’t forget about the bond markets On top of the US-Iran situation, the prospect of the Fed keeping rates high — or even tightening policy in September — is still on the table. Yet equity markets, including the German DAX index, have barely flinched. The DAX hit a new all-time high earlier today, before coming off its highs a few moments ago. So, is the market underestimating the risks?
There is also the persistent warning sign in the bond market. Yields, which have been rising alongside oil prices, during the US-Iran war, have remained consistently high across the curve.
If crude continues higher, investors could start worrying about another inflationary shock. That could push yields even higher, putting pressure on bond prices, and ultimately make equities much less attractive - especially growth stocks. That could also be bad news for foreign currencies, especially those where interest rates are already lower compared to the US, or those where the economy relies on energy imports – such as the euro.
Technical EUR/USD outlook and key levels to watch The EUR/USD was holding around 1.1550 handle at the time of writing, but the directional bias is far from clear. Volatility in this pair has been shocking low for a while now. It is not just because of the summer months, although clearly this is also contributing to subdued trading activity.
Source: TradingView.com The pair broke its bearish trend line a few days ago, yet there has been little desire to bid up the exchange rate meaningfully from here by the bulls. That’s understandable because we have the all-important inflation data coming up and not to mention the ongoing oil market uncertainty.
Perhaps it makes sense to trade this EUR/USD from one level to the next and moving on to the next opportunity in these circumstances.
Key short term resistance is between 1.1575 to 1.6000 area. The most recent high comes in at 1.1622, where we also have the 200-day average converging. A break above that zone would thus be a bullish technical development.
Support meanwhile is seen around 1.1500-1.1520 area. Below this 1.1470ish and 1.1410 are the next downside targets, followed by the recent lows near 1.1350.
In summary So, the EUR/USD outlook looks far from certain. For now, it is in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI. But if oil prices keep rising and bond yields continue climbing, the downside risks could become more pronounced - especially if US CPI also turns out to be hotter than expected.
In the slightly longer term outlook, the big question is whether the EUR/USD can continue looking through higher oil prices — or whether bonds eventually trigger the correction investors have been largely ignoring.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is steady, extending a tight consolidation around the mid-1.15s after the Dollar’s late-July Fed-driven decline. EUR/USD trades close to a fair value estimate based on 2-year Germany–US yield spreads, with sentiment-driven correlations strengthening and a quiet data and European Central Bank (ECB) calendar pointing to continued range trading.
Euro steady in tight range"The EUR remains steady as it extends its tight consolidation in the mid-1.15s, with limited overall movement observed in the period following the USD’s broad Fed-driven decline from late July."
"The EUR continues to trade in tandem with a narrow FV estimate based on 2Y Germany-US yield spreads, currently at 1.1563."
"Correlation studies reveal a moderation in fundamentally- (spread) driven movement, while correlations to sentiment (risk reversals) are elevated and strengthening."
"Bullish/neutral – the EUR’s bullish momentum is fading, with the RSI drifting into the upper 50s. The recovery from late July has shown signs of deceleration while still maintaining a marginal bull trend with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows."
"Recent resistance has been observed around 1.1580 and we see additional resistance closer to 1.1600 and the 200 day MA at 1.1630. Support is expected at the 50 day MA at 1.1468. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1580. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank's Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer expects EUR/USD to recover once the Iran conflict eases and to grind higher over the coming quarters. Krämer links Euro strength to eroding Federal Reserve independence, falling US rate expectations and a significantly overvalued Dollar on purchasing power parity. Commerzbank's updated forecast sees EUR/USD at 1.18 by mid‑2027 and 1.19 by end‑2027.
Dollar seen weakening on Fed doubts"The EUR/USD exchange rate should rise again after the war ends and continue to drift higher in the following quarters due to the eroding independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially since the dollar is significantly overvalued in terms of purchasing power parity."
"We expect the EUR/USD rate to be 1.18 by mid-2027 (previously 1.20)."
"We expect US interest rate expectations to correct even further downward in the coming months, weighing on the dollar."
"On the one hand, inflation risks are likely to diminish with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which we expect to occur by the end of the year."
"All in all, we expect a gradual rise in EUR/USD toward 1.19 by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: 1.21)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD fluctuates on Tuesday, holding within the range seen over the past week. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1546, virtually unchanged on the day.
The sideways price action comes as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes near its recent lows, with traders closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, particularly around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Attention also turns to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations for the September meeting and drive the next move in the US Dollar and, in turn, EUR/USD.
Euro seen grinding higher as Fed independence erodes and Dollar overvaluation unwindsAccording to Commerzbank, the EUR/USD exchange rate is likely to regain traction once geopolitical tensions ease, with the bank arguing that "the EUR/USD exchange rate should rise again after the war ends and continue to drift higher in the following quarters due to the eroding independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially since the dollar is significantly overvalued in terms of purchasing power parity." The bank also highlights the policy-rate backdrop, stating that "we expect US interest rate expectations to correct even further downward in the coming months, weighing on the dollar."
Reflecting these factors, the bank has trimmed but maintained a constructive medium‑term profile for the pair, now projecting that “we expect the EUR/USD rate to be 1.18 by mid-2027 (previously 1.20)” and, “all in all, we expect a gradual rise in EUR-USD toward 1.19 by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: 1.21).”
Technical analysis: Daily chart
EUR/USD is hovering between the short- and longer-term moving averages and thus maintaining a neutral near-term bias. Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart near 59 hinting at persistent buying interest and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, suggesting a mild bullish tone in the backdrop despite the layered resistance above price.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1468, followed by a horizontal floor at 1.1400 and a deeper structural base near 1.1350.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1567, with a more significant barrier at the 200-day SMA at 1.1630. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to unlock a more convincing bullish phase, while failure to do so would keep the pair confined within its current range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%0.02%-0.06%-0.02%-0.22%-0.08%-0.02%EUR0.02%0.04%-0.04%0.01%-0.16%-0.06%0.00%GBP-0.02%-0.04%-0.09%-0.04%-0.21%-0.10%-0.04%JPY0.06%0.04%0.09%0.05%-0.14%-0.02%0.06%CAD0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.05%-0.18%-0.07%-0.00%AUD0.22%0.16%0.21%0.14%0.18%0.11%0.18%NZD0.08%0.06%0.10%0.02%0.07%-0.11%0.07%CHF0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.06%0.00%-0.18%-0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Chris Turner at ING observes that EUR/USD realised volatility continues to decline, with one-year volatility matching lows from November 2024. He argues this calm backdrop is unlikely to change before mid-September, and warns that underhedged European investors in US assets may need to raise Dollar hedge ratios if the Dollar weakens. EUR/USD is expected to stay within 1.1515-1.1560 today.
Calm trading and hedge ratio risks"EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024. As above, it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks."
"We published an article yesterday looking at the dollar hedge ratios of European investors. The risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the dollar look vulnerable again."
"It is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD trades around 1.1535 on Tuesday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day. The pair is moving further away from its recent seven-week high of 1.1581 as the stalemate in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran keeps geopolitical tensions elevated and supports Oil prices.
Washington and Tehran are struggling to reach a compromise that would allow the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global energy trade. Reciprocal demands for compensation over war damages are reducing hopes for a swift peace agreement, while shipping traffic through the strait remains severely restricted.
Prospects for de-escalation have deteriorated further after Iran ruled out the possibility of fresh negotiations with US President Donald Trump. According to reports citing Iranian media, Tehran intends to wait until Trump's term ends on January 20, 2029, before considering a return to the negotiating table.
Disruptions also persist in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding to concerns over key shipping routes in the region. Against this backdrop, Oil prices are moving higher, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trading around $82.50 at the time of press.
Higher energy costs are a negative factor for the Euro (EUR), as the Eurozone remains heavily dependent on energy imports. A prolonged period of elevated Oil prices could increase cost pressures and weigh on the region's growth outlook.
Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar (USD) finds some support from hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and that she expects more than one interest rate hike will be needed to bring inflation back toward the target.
The comments come as investors remain divided over the Fed's next monetary policy decision in September. Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, due on Wednesday, which could provide fresh clues about the interest rate outlook.
Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, meanwhile, is expected to fall to 2.5% YoY from 2.6% in the previous month. An upside surprise could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy and provide further support to the US Dollar, while softer figures could put the currency under renewed pressure.
Euro volatility sinks as EUR/USD stays pinned in tight pre-CPI rangeAnalysts at ING highlight the increasingly subdued trading backdrop, noting that "EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024." They add that "it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks," reinforcing the view that near-term price action is likely to remain constrained.
ING also flags positioning risks on the European side, referencing recent work on "the dollar hedge ratios of European investors." The bank cautions that "the risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the Dollar look vulnerable again," a dynamic that could influence flows if sentiment toward the Dollar shifts.
Against this backdrop, ING judges that "it is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today," underscoring the narrow intraday parameters. Strategists at Societe Generale share a similar view, observing that the Euro has "trimmed NFP gains for a second day after running into resistance at 100dma (1.1567)" and characterising conditions as a "rangebound session today ahead of US CPI tomorrow." Societe Generale sets out the broader technical framework with "support 1.1500, resistance 1.1625," suggesting that sizeable option interest and key moving averages are likely to keep EUR/USD anchored in the near term.
EUR/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1537, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it sits under the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1542 while only marginally above the 200-period SMA at 1.1526. Price is effectively testing the descending resistance trend line around 1.1537, suggesting the pair is capped by nearby overhead supply, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.4 hinting at subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the trend-line pivot near 1.1537, followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1542, which would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure. On the downside, initial support is provided by the upward-sloping trend-line break area around 1.1527, ahead of firmer demand at the 200-period SMA near 1.1526, where a sustained break lower would likely extend the bearish phase toward lower hourly lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Key Points:U.S. CPI is the primary FX catalyst as traders assess whether inflation will alter expectations for the Fed's September decision.UK second-quarter GDP is another important catalyst for GBP/USD and expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.DXY remains technically vulnerable below its key moving averages while defending rising trendline support near 99.42.EUR/USD is testing long-term resistance near 1.1556, with a breakout potentially strengthening its bullish structure.GBP/USD remains constructive above its rising trendline and moving averages while buyers challenge 1.3516 resistance.
US Dollar News: CPI Test Puts Fed and FX Policy in Focus As we enter August 11, attentions are on the anticipated July CPI data to be released on Wednesday. The result of this CPI data will ultimately decide if the Fed continues its pause on rate increases or if it resumes tightening in September. Economists expect a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the core CPI. Pocket appreciations, consistent with that forecast, would likely reflect inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target. In June, the Fed’s preferred core inflation measure was reported at 3.3% with an increase from the previous year at 2.8%.
Prior expectations around interest rates have become unpredictable as the persistent inflation and regional energy shocks challenge Chair Warsh’s decision to keep rates the same in the last meeting, despite the three dissents for a rate increase. Additionally, President Trump’s Larry-Kudlow-like policies to undermine the Fed’s deliberations and autonomy by targeting a Fed Governor have added to the already increasing fundamental risks of the dollar.
There are also many uncertainties for the euro. Recent news out of Washington indicate that the yen was propped up by the recent dollar selling done by the U.S. Treasury. This has also sparked questions around currency coordination and if the U.S. Treasury was working to support the dollar while avoiding pressure on the bond market. For the ECB, that equates to staying the course for now following their last policy meeting in July.
Sterling is focusing on this week’s second-quarter UK GDP data. Most economists say the economy grew by around 0.4% in Q2. This would follow Q1’s 0.6% growth. Despite the challenges of the Iran situation and supply chain issues, activity remained resilient. The data will matter for the Bank of England as stronger data means the bank can keep an eye on inflation risks. The data will also affect the U.S. dollar, euro, and pound. Weaker figures would mean the BoE would do more to fight inflation. For now, U.S. CPI is the most important data for the currency markets. PPI and retail sales data are also important this week.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds Rising Trendline but Remains Below Key EMAs Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index currently trades at $99.88. The index is currently trading slightly above the rising trendline and a key horizontal support at $99.42. Although the index trades above the rising trendline and horizontal support, the index is currently trading below the 50-day EMA ($100.32) and the 100-day EMA ($99.91) and therefore bears still control the index. Buying pressure is apparent from the most recent candles defending the rising trendline. This, however, is not enough to be considered a bullish trend, and is currently lacking confirmation.
The RSI is currently at 41, which indicates that the selling pressure has diminished, however the RSI is still below the neutral mark at 50. Resistance for the index is expected at $100.36, $100.82, and $101.62. In the event the index falls, support is expected at $99.42. Below $99.42 is expected support at $98.76 and $98.18.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Tests Rising Trendline Near $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading around $1.3499, and is still trading above the rising trendline which supported the recovery since late July. The price is also still above the 50-period EMA at $1.3456 and the 100-period EMA at $1.3427, and although the price has been consolidating, the structure is still Bullish. Smaller bodies around the $1.3500 area suggest hesitation.
They are not large enough to indicate a reversal. The RSI is at 58, suggesting there is bullish momentum, which is healthy, but still not overbought. The areas of resistance for this momentum are $1.3516, $1.3559 and $1.3601. Moving in the other direction, support for this momentum is $1.3437, $1.3401 and $1.3343. In my opinion, if the GBP/USD is able to trade above the rising trendline, the Bullish setup is intact. I also believe that a break above $1.3516 could extend the move toward $1.3559.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Stalls Below Long-Term Trendline at $1.1556
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD currently stands at $1.1534. Price activity shows the Euro trading along the long term falling trendline from where multiple attempts to move higher have been capped. The 50 day moving average (MA) stands at $1.1496, while the 100 day MA stands at $1.1542, and the EUR/USD is positioned below the 50 day MA indicating recent resistance.
Recent price movement has shown that the buyers could be losing steam after the strong bounce from $1.1357, and resistance has been built at $1.1556. The RSI (relative strength index) has an open bullish setup at 58, although a clean break above is what is called for.
In the short term, $1.1556 is the first resistance level, followed by $1.1674 and then $1.1790. In the short term, $1.1455 is the first major support level with the next support level standing firmly at $1.135
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range. For the next 1–3 weeks, the Euro’s upside hurdle has risen, requiring a close above 1.1580 to target 1.1600 and beyond, while strong support has shifted up to 1.1515.
Euro consolidates below 1.1580 barrier"24-HOUR VIEW: Having surged to a high of 1.1580 last Friday, EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1539 and 1.1569 yesterday. EUR closed slightly lower by 0.14% at 1.1542. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1530 and 1.1560."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following is from our latest update from last Friday: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase.” EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1580 before closing at 1.1558. There has been no significant increase in upward momentum, and the hurdle for further gains has risen, with EUR needing to close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected. The ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1515 instead of 1.1495."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro is poised to end Monday’s session with losses of about 0.13% against the Greenback, as recent news points to a delay in talks between the US and Iran, while, from a technical perspective, EUR/USD stalled at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1568.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookOverall, the EUR/USD is poised to consolidate further, though it is slightly tilted to the upside after buyers reclaimed the 50-day SMA. Momentum confirms the short-term upward bias, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
That said, the first resistance for EUR/USD is the 100-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose 1.1600, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. Once those two levels are removed, the next target is the 1.1700 psychological figure.
On the flip side, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1500, a pullback towards the 50-day SMA at 1.1469 is on the cards. Below, the next area of interest is the 1.1400 mark, followed by the July 28 swing low of 1.1353.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.00%-0.04%EUR-0.04%0.01%0.00%-0.00%-0.02%0.02%-0.04%GBP-0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%JPY-0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%-0.00%0.37%-0.00%CAD-0.01%0.00%-0.02%0.03%0.03%0.38%0.01%AUD0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.03%NZD0.00%-0.02%-0.01%-0.37%-0.38%-0.01%0.03%CHF0.04%0.04%-0.00%0.00%-0.01%-0.03%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Key Points:EUR/USD settled near the 1.1550 level as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD pulled back as precious metals markets moved higher. USD/JPY climbed towards the 159.00 level amid rising Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Rebounds As Oil Markets Rally
DXY 100826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains some ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +5% as U.S. and Iran did not reach any deal over the weekend. President Trump signaled that he would use economic pressure to force Iran back to negotiations.
High oil prices may push inflation towards higher levels and force the Fed to raise rates at the next meeting in September, which will be bullish for the American currency.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 99.85 – 100.00 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.
EUR/USD Moves Away From Multi-Week Highs EUR/USD 100826 4h Chart EUR/USD moved lower as traders took some profits off the table near multi-week highs. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the EU today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. If EUR/USD declines below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1435 – 1.1450. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Tests New Highs GBP/USD 100826 4h Chart GBP/USD climbed above the 1.3500 level as traders ignored rising oil prices and bet on dovish Fed.
In case GBP/USD stays above 1.3500, it will head towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. A move above the 1.3565 level will push GBP/USD towards the 1.3650 level.
On the support side, a move below the support at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3444. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
USD/CAD Attempts To Settle Below The Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935
USD/CAD 100826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulls back as traders focus on rising precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4350 level, while silver settled above $65.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mostly flat in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.3920 – 1.3935. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3825 – 1.3840 range.
USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 100826 4h Chart USD/JPY gains ground as the yen continues to lose ground after interventions. Rising Treasury yields provide additional support to USD/JPY. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%.
At this point, forex traders are not worried that BoJ would intervene again to support the yen. Fundamentally, the yen remains weak due to the difference in interest rates in U.S. and Japan.
If USD/JPY settles above the 50 MA at 158.84, it will head towards the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 162.00 level.
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EUR/USD treads water on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following its post-NFP weakness, while Oil prices rise amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1553, virtually unchanged on the day.
Price action has been confined to a narrow range for more than a week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) also attempting to stabilise above 99.50. The index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.70, up 0.10% on the day.
The sideways trading comes as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path and developments in the Middle East. Weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July prompted traders to scale back expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting.
However, elevated Oil prices are raising concerns that inflation could stay above the Fed’s target for longer, preventing traders from fully ruling out a rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets still price in around a 44% chance of a September hike.
Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. A softer-than-expected reading could further reduce the probability of a rate hike next month and weigh on the US Dollar.
Analysts at ING highlight that with the key July data now out of the way and August is “typically a quiet month for European Central Bank communication.” They note that the ECB has effectively given markets “a quasi-commitment to a September hike,” limiting the scope for fresh policy surprises from the Eurozone side in the near term.
Against that backdrop, ING argues that “that leaves EUR/USD firmly dominated by the USD side of the equation.” The bank stresses that “a softer US CPI print would increase the chances of a break above 1.160 already this week,” adding that “the next important resistance beyond that is the 200-day moving average at 1.1630.”
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump says Washington is “semi-negotiating” with Tehran while “low-keying” its military campaign. Iran, however, denies holding direct talks and has tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to US concessions, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
EURUSD probed again through strong barriers at 1.1560/66 (100DMA / daily cloud top) on Monday, following Friday’s false break higher, but continues to face headwinds at this zone.
The single currency benefited from weak NFP data that further deflated dollar on Friday, pressured by fading expectations for Fed rate hike in September, but so far lacks strength for final break.
Near-term structure remains firm as bullishly aligned daily studies continue to underpin the action, with extended consolidation (1.1515/1.1560) likely to precede fresh push higher.
Markets await release of US July CPI data (Wednesday) to add fresh details in near-term policy outlook, with Euro expected to benefit from weaker inflation.
Sustained break of 100DMA / cloud top to generate fresh bullish signal for attack at nearby Fibo barrier at 1.1586 (50% retracement of 1.1849/1.1324) which guards next target at 1.1626 (200DMA).
Extended dips should be ideally contained above broken Fibo 38.2% resistance (1.1524) to keep bulls in play.
Caution on break of 1.1500 support zone (broken bull-channel upper boundary / round-figure) that would signal deeper pullback.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
EURUSD probed again through strong barriers at 1.1560/66 (100DMA/daily cloud top) on Monday, following Friday’s false break higher, but continues to face headwinds at this zone.
The single currency benefited from weak NFP data that further deflated dollar on Friday, pressured by fading expectations for Fed rate hike in September, but so far lacks strength for final break.
Near-term structure remains firm as bullishly aligned daily studies continue to underpin the action, with extended consolidation (1.1515/1.1560) likely to precede fresh push higher.
Markets await release of US July CPI data (Wednesday) to add fresh details in near-term policy outlook, with Euro expected to benefit from weaker inflation.
Sustained break of 100DMA/cloud top to generate fresh bullish signal for attack at nearby Fibo barrier at 1.1586 (50% retracement of 1.1849/1.1324) which guards next target at 1.1626 (200DMA).
Extended dips should be ideally contained above broken Fibo 38.2% resistance (1.1524) to keep bulls in play.
Caution on break of 1.1500 support zone (broken bull-channel upper boundary/round-figure) that would signal deeper pullback.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that with key Eurozone data behind and European Central Bank (ECB) communication subdued, EUR/USD is now driven mainly by the United States (US) side. A softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could trigger a break above 1.1600, with the 200-day moving average at 1.1630 as the next resistance, while short-term rate differentials remain the dominant driver.
US side dominates Euro dynamics"The euro is entering a particularly quiet stretch for domestic drivers. The key July data releases are behind us, while August is typically a quiet month for European Central Bank communication. In any case, the ECB has already given markets a quasi-commitment to a September hike."
"That leaves EUR/USD firmly dominated by the USD side of the equation. A softer US CPI print would increase the chances of a break above 1.1600 already this week. The next important resistance beyond that is the 200-day moving average at 1.1630."
"Our short-term fair value models are offering little direction at present, with EUR/USD broadly tracking moves in rates, equities and commodities. Short-term rate differentials have continued to grow as the main driver for EUR/USD, meaning sensitivity to the Fed story should remain very elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Foley highlights resilient Eurozone data but also growth headwinds and limited appetite for strong Euro appreciation. Rabobank now expects EUR/USD to reach 1.16 in three months, assuming no major Eurozone growth surprises.
Euro gains on softer US outlook"At the end of last month EUR/USD lurched higher. On Friday, the currency pair traded at its highest levels since June 17. This may give the illusion of a buoyant EUR."
"The release of the surprisingly soft US July labour market report was the clear trigger for the move higher in EUR/USD on Friday. The softer data dealt a blow to expectations of Fed rate hikes which knocked US yields and the greenback lower."
"Indeed, it is RaboResearch’s view that the Fed will hold rates steady this year, which suggests scope for further softness in the USD."
"Given than another ECB rate hike is already in the price, a move is unlikely to provide much additional upside incentive for the EUR. We see scope for a modest upside bias in EUR/USD in the months ahead, mostly reflecting a reduction in Fed rate hike speculation and we have brought forward our forecast of a move to 1.16 from 6mths to 3mth."
"That said, in the absence of upside growth surprises in Q3, we are doubtful that the market will be keen to rebuild substantial EUR long positions in the coming months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly lower at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar holds onto its early recovery, which, according to market experts, lacks conviction, as traders have dialed down hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.
Fed hike case softens as US jobs data underwhelmAnalysts at Rabobank argue that Friday’s US employment report has further eroded the case for additional Fed tightening, noting that “the case for a Fed hike is weakening, but it is certainly not yet done for.” They highlight that the “headline payrolls number disappointed, with a -23,000 jobs print and a 37,000 downward revision to the June estimate,” underscoring a softer tone in the labour market. Rabobank adds that their US strategist had already observed that “employment growth has been slowing for several months,” and that the latest release “confirmed that downside risks to the labour market have not disappeared entirely since the three insurance cuts last year.” In their view, this evolving backdrop “could strengthen the argument of the Fed’s doves,” even if the policy debate remains open.
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
On the Eurozone front, the Sentix Investor Confidence data, a key indicator of Investor morale, has come in surprisingly positive at 0.9 in August from -3.1 in July.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades around 1.1550, holding significantly above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1484 and slightly above the downward-sloping trend line around 1.1520, keeping the near-term bias bullish.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 61 suggests constructive upside momentum, though still shy of overbought conditions, hinting that bulls retain control as long as spot remains anchored above the former trend-line cap.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the trend-line break area near 1.1520, with the 20-day EMA at 1.1484 providing a deeper cushion if a pullback extends. Looking up, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 5 high at 1.1644 if it manages to hold above the August 7 high at 1.1581.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
EUR/USD holds near 1.1555 as the euro retains much of its recent advance against the US Dollar. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence jumped to +0.9 in August from -3.1, returning to positive territory and adding to signs of improving sentiment across the bloc. Weak US payrolls remain a major drag on the Dollar, while 1.1600 is emerging as the key resistance level for EUR/USD. EUR/USD held above 1.1550 on Monday, extending the recovery that gathered pace following last week’s surprisingly weak US employment report. The pair was trading near 1.1555 at the time of writing, keeping it close to recent highs as investors reassessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar.
The euro received an additional boost from fresh Eurozone data after the Sentix Investor Confidence Index beat expectations in August and returned to positive territory. The improvement gives EUR/USD another source of support beyond Dollar weakness and comes as traders assess whether the Eurozone economy is entering the second half of 2026 on firmer footing.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Beats Expectations Eurozone investor sentiment improved more sharply than expected in August, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising to +0.9 from -3.1 in July. The return to positive territory represents a notable improvement in investor perceptions of the region’s economic outlook after sentiment remained below zero in the previous month.
For the euro, the timing of the improvement is particularly relevant. EUR/USD’s recent recovery has been driven largely by a repricing of US interest-rate expectations following disappointing American economic data. An improvement in Eurozone sentiment gives the single currency a domestic catalyst of its own and reduces the extent to which its recovery depends entirely on weakness in the Dollar.
The Sentix report is not normally as influential for EUR/USD as inflation figures or European Central Bank policy decisions, but the positive surprise adds to evidence that confidence in the Eurozone economy is stabilizing. If upcoming European indicators reinforce that picture, expectations for a widening economic-performance gap between the US and Eurozone could continue to ease.
Weak US Jobs Report Keeps EUR/USD Buyers in Control The main catalyst behind the latest EUR/USD rally remains the sharp deterioration in the headline US employment figures. US Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, delivering a much weaker result than markets had anticipated. Government employment accounted for a significant part of the decline, while private-sector employment remained positive, preventing the report from pointing to an outright collapse in hiring.
The unemployment rate also complicated the picture by unexpectedly falling to 4.1% from 4.2%. However, the decline was accompanied by weaker labor-force participation, limiting how positively markets could interpret the lower jobless rate.
For currency traders, the broader implication is that the Federal Reserve now faces greater uncertainty over how long restrictive monetary policy can be maintained if labor-market conditions continue to deteriorate. Expectations for further tightening have consequently softened, removing an important source of support for the US Dollar. That repricing has helped EUR/USD recover strongly from the 1.1350 region, with buyers pushing the pair back through 1.1500 and toward the 1.1600 psychological barrier.
US Inflation Data Could Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The next phase of the EUR/USD price forecast will depend heavily on whether upcoming US economic data confirms the softer picture presented by the July jobs report.
Inflation will be particularly important. Weak employment combined with easing price pressures would strengthen the argument against additional Federal Reserve tightening and could place renewed downward pressure on the Dollar. Such a combination would also give EUR/USD buyers a stronger fundamental case for challenging 1.1600 and potentially extending the recovery.
The alternative scenario is more complicated. If US inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed could have less room to respond to weaker employment conditions. That would leave markets balancing deteriorating growth indicators against persistent inflation, potentially restoring some support for US Treasury yields and the Dollar. EUR/USD therefore enters the new week with momentum on its side, but the durability of the rally will increasingly depend on whether upcoming US releases validate the market’s more cautious Fed expectations.
EUR/USD Outlook The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish above 1.1500, supported by weaker US employment data, reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening and the unexpectedly strong Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence reading.
A sustained move above 1.1600 would strengthen the bullish case and could open the door toward 1.1650. However, failure to clear 1.1580-1.1600, combined with a break below 1.1500, would suggest the post-NFP recovery is losing strength and could bring 1.1465 back into focus. For now, buyers retain the advantage, but 1.1600 remains the level EUR/USD must break to turn the current recovery into a more convincing bullish extension.
Why is EUR/USD rising today?
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1550 as the US Dollar remains under pressure following weak US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The euro also received support after the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to +0.9 in August from -3.1, beating expectations.
What is the EUR/USD forecast for this week?
The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish while the pair holds above 1.1500. A break above 1.1600 could strengthen momentum toward 1.1650, while a drop below 1.1500 could expose 1.1465.
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish?
The short-term EUR/USD trend remains bullish, although momentum is beginning to moderate near 1.1580-1.1600 resistance. Holding above 1.1500 would preserve the current bullish structure.
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Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD has squeezed above key resistance as Dollar weakness follows softer United States (US) employment data and reduced odds of a September Fed hike. The pair is seen slightly expensive versus nat gas but near fair value on 2-year spreads. They note that if the European Central Bank (ECB) hikes again while the Federal Reserve (Fed) pauses, EUR/USD could gain further, with the next resistance zone identified around 1.1610/1.1625.
Euro prospects improve as Fed bets are repriced"Clouds first appeared on the horizon for the dollar two weeks ago after the coordinated FX intervention in USD/JPY and the squeeze in EUR/USD above key resistance at 1.1475/1.15."
"The pricing for a hike in September has been whittled back to less than 50% vs 72% at the end of July. "
"After months of obsessing about above target CPI and PCE inflation, and levelling accusations of being behind the curve, the employment situation put the Fed outlook in a different daylight and raises questions for the direction of the bond and FX markets in 2H."
"The pair trades close to fair value based on 2y spreads but is a smidgen expensive relative to nat gas."
"If the ECB hikes again and the Fed stands pat because of the deteriorating labour market, perspectives will emerge for a stronger EUR/USD ahead."
"We identify the next hurdle at 1.1610/1.1625."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is showing a quotation of $99.63. After the most recent sharp sell-off, it has been able to defend a long-term rising trendline and the key support zone of $99.42. The price is under both the 50-day EMA at $100.33 and the 100-day EMA at $99.91. This is keeping the broader short-term structure at risk, even after the most recent consolidation.
The most recent price action has shown smaller bodies of the candlesticks with respect to support, showing the momentum for selling is diminishing, but with no signs of a reversal. The RSI is currently at 37. It is close to the oversold region, meaning that there is a possibility of a technical rebound.
The first line of resistance is at $100.36, with subsequent resistance at $100.82 and $101.62. If the trendline holds, the move will reach towards those levels. If support at $99.42 is broken, the new targets will be $98.76 and $98.18.
Danske Research Team notes that the US Dollar (USD) weakened after a softer US jobs report, allowing EUR/USD to briefly reach its highest level in almost two months. They highlight that markets cut Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening expectations for September, while also flagging upcoming United States (US) inflation data and Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as key for EUR/USD traders.
Dollar slides as Fed bets fade"In the US, the July jobs report came in on the weak side with nonfarm payrolls coming in at -23k (cons: +80k, Danske: +70k) and cumulative revisions for May-June firmly negative at -103k. The unemployment rate nonetheless fell to 4.1% (cons: 4.2%, Danske: 4.2%). At the same time, the labour market participation rate declined to 61.4%, which is the weakest level since February 2021. "
"We do not think this report is as unambiguously dovish as the initial moves in UST yields and USD FX implied, leaving the Fed in a difficult position balancing below-expectations job growth against a still-declining unemployment rate. Fed's Barkin's initial commentary acknowledged the weakness in the labour market data, while pointing to continued resilient corporate earnings."
"Consequently, the market now discounts 11bp of hike from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting in September."
"The USD took a hit on Friday and the US jobs report significantly disappointed expectations. The USD lost ground against the rest of G10 currencies. EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.1581 - the highest level in almost two months."
"In the euro area, the Sentix Investor Confidence indicator is due. The index rose sharply in in July, marking the third consecutive monthly improvement, driven by rising expectations. Today's release will provide a read on whether momentum continues."
"The week closes on Friday with the second release of euro area Q2 GDP, including details. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds after a significant fall on Friday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 99.72.
The US Dollar fell sharply on Friday after the release of the soft United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which forced traders to reassess Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.
The NFP report showed that employers fired 23K workers, while they were anticipated to create 80K fresh jobs.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising policy rates in the September meeting are 46%, a sharp decline from 67% seen a week ago.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades marginally lower at around 1.1550, but is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1484, suggesting the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to stabilize above the 60.00 zone, hinting at fresh bullish momentum.
On the downside, initial support emerges near the August 3 low at 1.1500, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1484. The pair would be exposed to the July 28 low at 1.1353 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 15 high at 1.1622 if it manages a decisive break above Friday's high at 1.1581.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1520 resistance. A contracting triangle is forming with resistance at 1.1600 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD could gain pace if it clears the 1.3550 resistance. Gold prices climbed higher above $4,350 and might continue to rise. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro formed a base above 1.1380 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1450 and 1.1500 resistance levels.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.1580. A high was formed at 1.1581, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1352 swing low to the 1.1581 high.
The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1580.
The next major resistance might be 1.1600. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.1600. A close above 1.1600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1650.
Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1685. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 1.1540. The next major support could be near 1.1500.
The main support might be 1.1465 and the 50% Fib retracement. A downside break and close below 1.1465 might send the pair toward 1.1400. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1350.
Looking at GBP/USD, the pair seems to be gaining pace above 1.3450 and might aim for a retest of the 1.3550 resistance.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for August 2026 – Forecast -3.2, versus -3.1 previous.
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Key highlightsEUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1520 resistance.A contracting triangle is forming with resistance at 1.1600 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.1580. A high was formed at 1.1581, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1352 swing low to the 1.1581 high.
The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1580.
The next major resistance might be 1.1600. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.1600. A close above 1.1600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1650.
Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1685. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 1.1540. The next major support could be near 1.1500.
The main support might be 1.1465 and the 50% Fib retracement. A downside break and close below 1.1465 might send the pair toward 1.1400. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1350.
Upcoming key economic eventsEuro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for August 2026 - Forecast -3.2, versus -3.1 previous.
EUR/USD Talking Points: EUR/USD finished the week with a big test of resistance at prior support, extending the breakout from the prior week but with an abundance of questions over drivers as it still appears that the main FX flows are coming from the USD/JPY setup. For next week, there’s a lot importance around the US CPI report as shows of slower inflation can impact US rate hike odds which can then further impact that USD/JPY carry trade. And if we do see more long-term longs closing then USD-weakness can drive in several other markets, EUR/USD included.
It’s rare that the Euro isn’t the major driver of the Dollar basket, because after all, it is a whopping 57.6% component of DXY. But the reality is sentiment matters, as does positioning, and if we’re seeing that massive carry trade in USD/JPY unwind with USD selling and JPY gaining, well even the larger major pair of EUR/USD can be impacted.
We saw this happen back in July of 2024, when nothing especially great was happening for the Eurozone economy yet EUR/USD gained almost 500 pips in Q3. But remember, these are FX pairs that we’re talking about so there’s two components, and even if the Euro is hovering or treading water, the act of the US Dollar dropping can lift the net value for the pair which is what happened.
Back then it was a BoJ intervention on the morning of a US CPI print creating a perfect storm. To that point there was doubt as to whether the Fed would actually be able to cut rates. That CPI print cemented expectations that they would be able to, and with an assist from the Bank of Japan intervening, suddenly, long positions in USD/JPY had reason to bail. And that USD-weakness had a significant impact on FX markets across-the-board, EUR/USD included. We saw a small snippet of that two weeks ago when a coordinated intervention pushed USD/JPY down by almost 900 pips, helping to prod a breakout in EUR/USD as the pair pushed out of a falling wedge formation and continued to rally through last week until finally finding resistance at a familiar area of 1.1576.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Shorter-Term At this point there’s a short-term pattern of higher-highs and lows that trend traders can work with, especially the focal point around the 1.1500 handle that I had looked at in last week’s webinar. That zone can be extended up to the higher-low of 1.1515 to create an area to look for bullish defense on pullback scenarios. A bit closer to current price as we wind towards the weekly close is a prior point of resistance at 1.1560, and below 1.1500 there’s a spot of prior resistance from 1.1455-1.1469 that remains relevant.
If bulls fail to hold prices above that last zone, it’s going to begin to look as though the breakout and fresh rally has failed.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
EUR/USD edges higher on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as traders scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets following a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1562, hovering near a seven-week high.
Price action, however, has been confined to a narrow range for more than a week, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) capping immediate upside attempts after the pair staged a rebound from below 1.1400 in late July.
Still, the near-term outlook remains bullish, as the dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations and optimism surrounding peace in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could keep the US Dollar on the defensive. The EUR/USD recovery faces its next major test from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due next week.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the 50-day SMA at 1.1471 offers immediate support, followed by the 1.1400 psychological mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 points to bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays positive, which hints that buyers retain an edge as long as price holds over the short-term average.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1568, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. A sustained break above these levels would expose the horizontal barriers at 1.1700 and 1.1800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels EUR/USD has rallied more than 2% from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal. The recovery is now confronting it’s the first technical hurdle since breaking out of the July range. Weekly momentum is attempting to confirm a broader shift after diverging into the yearly low. Holding above the July breakout zone would reinforce the recovery, larger test of yearly downtrend is eyed just higher. Resistance 1.1578, 1.1639/49 (key), 1.1746/75- Support 1.1469/83, 1.1355/94 (key), 1.1228 EUR/USD has extended its recovery from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal triggered a decisive breakout from the July consolidation range. The rally has now reached the first major resistance zone since the June decline began, making this an important test of whether buyers can sustain the improving technical backdrop. With weekly momentum showing signs of turning higher and key U.S. inflation data on tap next week, traders will be watching closely for confirmation on whether this recovery has room to develop into a broader trend reversal. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that the July opening range was set just above pivotal support and that, “From a trading standpoint, the April downtrend remains intact while below 1.1649, but the bears are vulnerable while above 1.1355.” EUR/USD spent more than five-weeks coiling within the July range before breaking out into the close of the month. An outside weekly reversal off the lows last week has extended more than 2.2% off the yearly low with the rally now testing the first major resistance hurdle on the back of a weaker than expected US employment report.
EUR/USD Weekly RSI
The immediate focus is on the weekly close with respect to the January low at 1.1578. Note that weekly momentum has is attempting to break above 50 for the first time since May after marking divergence into the yearly low. A momentum trigger extending off the 2025 high-close remains in place and may offer further guidance in the weeks ahead.
Initial weekly support now rests at the July breakout zone near 1.1469/83 with key support steady at 1.1355/65- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April high-week close. The median-line of the broader 2022 uptrend converges on this level and a break / weekly close below would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the January downtrend. Subsequent support rests at the 2026 high close at 1.1228 and 1.1110/64.
A confirmed breakout from here exposes the next major resistance zone at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline and the 52-week moving average at 1.1639/49. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this threshold next week and strength beyond this slope would suggest a more significant low was registered in June. Ultimately a breach above the 1.1745/75 is needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend and put the bulls back in control.
Bottom line: EUR/USD rebounded off major support last week with the recovery now testing the first technical hurdle. From a trading standpoint, a good level to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stop- losses would need to be limited to the 1.1469 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Look for a larger reaction near 1.1650 IF reached.
Today's weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, with Fed funds futures now implying a 56% probability the Fed leaves policy unchanged next month. The focus now shifts to Wednesday's CPI report, which will provide the next major test for the inflation outlook. With labor market conditions showing signs of moderation, softer inflation data would reinforce the case for a less restrictive policy path, reducing the dollar's yield advantage and supporting the euro's recovery. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Key Points:EUR/USD climbed above the 1.1550 level as traders focused on U.S. job market data. USD/CAD moved lower as precious metals markets rallied. USD/JPY pulled back amid falling Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Is Under Pressure After Disappointing NFP Report
DXY 070826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the surprising Non Farm Payrolls report. The report indicated that U.S. economy lost -23,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of +80,000.
Unemployment Rate declined from 4.2% in June to 4.1% in July as Participation Rate decreased from 61.5% to 61.4%.
The weak Non Farm Payrolls report put significant pressure on the American currency as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 58.1% chance that Fed will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting in September.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 99.25 level, it will head towards the next support level at 98.60 – 98.75.
EUR/USD Tests New Highs As Traders Focus On NFP Data EUR/USD 070826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained ground as traders reacted to U.S. job market data. In the EU, traders focused on Germany’s Exports report. The report indicated that Exports increased by +0.9% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
In case EUR/USD settles above the 1.1550 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.1600 – 1.1615. A move above the 1.1615 level will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700.
GBP/USD Tests The 1.3500 Level GBP/USD 070826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as traders focused on dovish changes in Fed policy outlook and reacted to Lloyds House Price Index report from the UK. The report indicated that house prices increased by +0.1% year-over-year in July, compared to analyst consensus of +0.4%.
GBP/USD moved above the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 and is trying to settle above the 1.3500 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935
USD/CAD 070826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4300 level, while silver settled above $63.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
Traders also focused on the Unemployment Rate report from Canada. The report showed that Unemployment Rate declined from 6.5% in June to 6.4% in July, compared to analyst consensus of 6.5%.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840.
USD/JPY Retreats As Treasury Yields Fall USD/JPY 070826 4h Chart USD/JPY moved lower as traders focused on falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.65%.
If USD/JPY settles below the 157.00 level, it will move towards the support level at 154.50 – 155.00. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 will push USD/JPY towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.
War headlines keep shaping sentimentUnited States (US) President Donald Trump kept repeating throughout the week that he believed that the war with Iran would be over “soon.” Market players, however, believe the ongoing pause in the Middle East crisis has more to do with reports suggesting the US Army is running out of highly accurate long-range missiles after its five-month war with Iran.
Also, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Trump of staging “theater diplomacy,” accusing the US of bullying and breaking promises. Tehran presented a plan on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which includes blocking the critical passage to US and Israeli ships. Traffic through the critical passage remains restrained, while skirmishes between different Middle East countries continue.
On a positive note, Oil prices remained within familiar levels, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $77 as the week comes to an end.
United States weak labor market?Markets also took note of the US labor market health, with soft readings coupled with persistent inflation-related concerns weighing on the US Dollar (USD). ISM published the July Purchasing Managers’ Index, which showed business activity in the country remained in expansionary territory, with the Manufacturing Index printing at 55.6, and the Services PMI climbing to 54.1. The reports, however, also showed that the Price Paid Indexes linked to both sectors came in higher than anticipated and above 70, hinting at persistent inflationary pressures.
Regarding employment figures, JOLTS Job Openings edged modestly lower in June, although hiring remained unchanged. The ADP Employment Change survey showed that the private sector added measly 44K new jobs in July, down from the 95K previous and the expected 70K, while the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 33,429 cuts in July, down from the 45,849 registered in June.
Finally, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the country lost 23K jobs in July while the June reading was downwardly revised to measly 20K from the original estimate of 57K. On a positive note, however, the Unemployment Rate shrank to 4.1%, its lowest in over a year, although the labor force Participation Rate also eased a tad, to 61.4% from the previous 61.5%.
Euro lacking life of its ownFinancial markets are all about sentiment and EUR/USD moved accordingly to USD strength/weakness, with the shared currency lacking life of its own.
Data from the Union was far from encouraging: Retail Sales in Germany fell 0.2% in June vs the previous 2.1% advance, while the Eurozone figure for the same month came in at -0.3%, down from the 0.4% advance posted in May. Also, the bloc Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% in the year to June as expected, down from the previous 5.9%.
The Euro was unable to attract buyers despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warning that surging Oil prices could shape the September rate decision, hinting at an interest rate hike at the next meeting. Indeed, data supports the case for another hike, as euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
What’s next in the docketInflation takes center stage in the upcoming days, as the US will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. Annual inflation, as measured by the CPI, is foreseen at 3.4%, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. On the same day, Germany will unveil the final reading of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the US will publish the July Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, previously at 5.5%. Friday will bring the first revision of the Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
And of course, the focus will remain on Middle East developments and how Oil Prices react to headlines.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair turned bullish, according to technical readings in the daily chart, although it still faces some barriers before confirming a steeper advance. The pair holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances to 1.1453, but remains below the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, both flat. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 62, while the Momentum indicator also advances above its midline, suggesting ongoing bullish pressure despite the pair struggling to decisively reclaim its heavier moving averages overhead.
In the weekly chart, EUR/USD trades just under the 20-week SMA at 1.1566, which caps the upside and keeps the near-term tone neutral. The pair remains above both the 100-week SMA at 1.1316 and the 200-week SMA at 1.1041, suggesting a broadly constructive medium-term backdrop even as near-term momentum stalls. The Momentum indicator remains below its midline, while the RSI hovers near the 50 line, suggesting a lack of clear directional pressure and favoring consolidation over trend extension for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, with a stronger barrier at the 200-day SMA near 1.1629, where sellers could reassert control if tested. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1453, and a daily close back under this short-term average would hint at fading upside momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback within the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The U.S. dollar gets hit after a weaker-than-anticipated jobs number.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD spikes to 1.1557, piercing the 1.1550 resistance level after consolidating above the 200-period EMA near 1.1500. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has taken a bit of a hit early during the trading session on Friday as the jobs report came out negative. That was in contrast to the expectations of an addition of about 85,000 jobs. That of course had the markets going crazy for a moment, but when we look at the overall reaction in the euro, it made sense as we pierced the most recent resistance barrier.
But it looks like the market is revisiting that 1.1550 level. If it were to break down below there, that would, more likely than not, bring more questions than answers.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD breaks below 1.3950 after losing the 1.4000 level, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3980 now acting as resistance. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has fallen pretty significantly against the Canadian dollar, and that does make a certain amount of sense because they’re moving in two different directions from the employment standpoint. That being said, a huge part of Canada’s economy is very dependent on the U.S., so that is important.
The market is breaking below the 1.3950 level, and that could signify that perhaps things are starting to turn around a bit. But when looked at from the prism of the longer term, it is not until we get to the 1.39 level that we even have a 50% pullback. So, the recent rally higher and then the slow decay from here is typical behavior in this pair. Not much to look at other than it’s just more larger rangebound trading between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY trades at 157.75 after falling sharply from 163.00, with 160.00 as overhead resistance and 155.00 as support below. Source: TradingView The Japanese yen has rallied against the U.S. dollar initially, but we’ve seen a turnaround of some significance. It looks like traders are still willing to take the bet on that interest rate differential, and this, of course, has been a big pair as of late due to those interventions coming out of the United States and Japan.
It’s an interesting scenario that we find ourselves in as the market is trying to determine whether or not the intervention is something to fear, or if it just gave traders the opportunity to buy cheaper dollars. I myself have been long of this pair for a very long time, going back almost a year, and I looked at this as a potential buying opportunity when we broke down significantly. Whether or not that pans out remains to be seen, obviously, but the interest rate differential at the end of every day does attract traders.
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Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that the US Dollar's (USD) current support from perceived hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy is likely to fade as markets reassess United States (US) rate expectations over coming quarters. While Euro (EUR) upside is seen as limited due to energy-related growth and rate headwinds, EUR/USD is still forecast to grind higher towards 1.19 by end-2027 as US rate expectations ease.
Dollar strength seen moderating"The US dollar is currently benefiting from a Federal Reserve that markets continue to perceive as relatively hawkish. However, this narrative has shown the first signs of cracking since the July FOMC meeting. Despite this, markets still price in further US rate hikes."
"We believe these expectations are overly optimistic and expect a reassessment of the rate outlook over the coming quarters, which should weigh on the dollar. While ECB rate expectations also appear somewhat stretched, the euro is likely to benefit more than the US currency from a resolution of the US-Iran conflict."
"If, as we expect, tensions between the US and Iran continue to ease towards year-end, inflationary pressures should moderate considerably next year. In that environment, the Fed could once again shift its focus towards supporting growth and eventually even resume its rate-cutting cycle."
"We therefore expect US rate expectations to be revised materially lower over the coming quarters, a development that should ultimately weigh on the dollar. However, the depreciation is unlikely to be quite as pronounced as we had previously assumed as we have to acknowledge that the risk that the Fed will hike rates in the coming months after all has increased. We now see EUR/USD at 1.19 (previously 1.21) at the end of next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD has retreated to 1.1524 after failing several times near 1.1560. Intraday, they see scope for further pullback but expect strong support at 1.1495 to hold. Over the next 1–3 weeks, a close above 1.1565 would open the way toward 1.1600, while a break below 1.1495 would signal a shift into range trading.
Support at 1.1495, resistance at 1.1565"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR edged higher as we expected two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. From a high of 1.1559, EUR pulled back to 1.1514 before settling at 1.1524 (-0.23%). While there is scope for EUR to pull back further today, any decline is unlikely to break the strong support at 1.1495 (there is another support level at 1.1510). Resistance is at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum. It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level.
A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening have helped EUR/USD climb, but questions how justified this move is. He stresses that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not preclude rate hikes, and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. Commerzbank has cut its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its horizon as perceived Dollar hike risks rise.
dollar risks reprice on Fed uncertainty"Since last week's Fed meeting, expectations of interest rate hikes have been priced out. Rather than tightening by roughly 44 basis points by the end of the year, the expectation is now for 'only' 33. This is likely the main reason why EUR-USD has recently climbed higher again."
"The key point is this: the absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates. It simply means that any change will not be announced in advance. This shifts the focus to the decision itself and places greater emphasis on the data."
"Today's labour market figures could provide an initial indication of the direction of future monetary policy. Our economists expect 100,000 new jobs to be created, which is a stronger increase than the current Bloomberg consensus forecast of +80,000. However, the USD’s reaction will depend not only on the headline figure, but also on the extent of revisions to previous months' figures and the unemployment rate."
"If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes. While we still do not believe that the Fed ultimately intends to take this step, the market is unlikely to be deterred from continuing to bet on a rate hike. This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week."
"This is because, even though we have not adjusted our Fed forecast, the risk of an interest rate hike has clearly increased in recent weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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UOB Group’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD has staged a sharp rebound after drifting sideways, following a decline from January’s high to mid-June’s low. The pair is seen with scope to extend gains, but the analyst stresses that the 1.1560/1.1565 zone, aligned with the daily Ichimoku cloud top and a weekly trendline, is critical resistance, while support is noted at 1.1470 and 1.1445.
Rebound constrained by cloud resistance"EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.2078 in late January before declining to 1.1324 in mid-June. It then drifted sideways until last week, when it rebounded sharply. Given the deeply oversold weekly slow stochastic, the rebound was not surprising."
"While there is scope for EUR/USD to rebound further, it must first surpass the significant resistance at 1.1560/1.1565."
"The upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1560 was tested a few times this week but remained intact. The declining weekly trendline from January’s high is currently near 1.1565. Looking ahead, should EUR/USD break and hold above 1.1560/1.1565, it could rise toward 1.1622, the minor peak in June."
"Support is at 1.1470 (current level of the 21-day EMA), followed by the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1445. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1445, it would mean that the top of the cloud may continue to act as significant resistance for some time."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors.
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have rattled market stability and created significant skepticism regarding the reopening of this critical shipping route. Market caution remains elevated as Iran's parliament evaluates a draft proposal that seeks to prohibit US and Israeli vessels, levy a 20% cargo penalty on hostile nations, and maintain restrictions on the corridor until the US blockade is removed.
Adding to the market volatility, rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in crude oil prices have stoked fears that the Federal Reserve might implement another interest rate hike next month. Despite these inflationary signals, the CME FedWatch Tool currently reflects a 54.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, down from 63.4% last week. Investors and traders are now closely eyeing the upcoming July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to gauge the health of the labor market and better anticipate the Fed's monetary policy path.
Across the Atlantic, economic indicators in the Euro Area present a challenging backdrop. Eurozone Retail Sales unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in June, missing market projections for a 0.1% growth and almost completely unwinding May's revised 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose by merely 0.7%, the weakest performance since July 2024, falling short of the expected 1.0% expansion and decelerating sharply from May's 1.9% increase.
Furthermore, the recovery in oil prices could dampen hopes that declining energy costs would alleviate pressure on central banks to keep policy tight. Following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to hold interest rates steady at its most recent meeting, markets expect only one more ECB rate hike by the end of the year, alongside a roughly 40% chance of a second increase.
Kocher flags autumn data focus as geopolitical risks cloud Euro inflationECB's Kocher scores 5.6/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic average of 6.3/10, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook highlights upside risks to Euro-area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.
The commitment that in autumn the ECB Governing Council will base decisions on incoming data to bring Euro-area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but vigilant stance. Overall, the speech suggests a cautious hawkish bias, with Kocher keeping the door open to renewed tightening or a slower easing path if energy-driven inflation pressures re-emerge.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
US Dollar Talking Points: It’s been a comeback week so far for the USD as the USD/JPY sell-off that dominated last week has pared back. The big question now is two-fold, first the NFP report for tomorrow morning but perhaps more potentially impactful is what response we might see should USD/JPY continue to push closer to the 160.00 handle. After the Fed last week the focus becomes more intense on US data, as markets are still pricing in an 84.3% probability of at least one rate hike into the end of the year. Given the political drama that would entail it puts perhaps even more pressure on newly-installed FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh. The big data prints for the US are coming into view starting with tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls report. While we’ve had some big data items already this week and a surprising show from the Atlanta GDP Now estimate coming in at 5.9%, NFP and CPI can carry special meaning for market participants as they give a clear view of the Fed’s two mandates. And while NFP can often be messy given its early nature, CPI has been encouraging of late after last month’s below-expected print eased concerns after a hawkish sounding FOMC at the June rate meeting.
For this iteration, however, there’s perhaps another factor of consideration especially for FX markets and traders as the Japanese Yen intervention to close last week casts a shadow over markets. We’re still in the early stage of that saga but most noteworthy is that this time, it wasn’t Japan going at it alone, as the US Treasury Secretary made multiple comments on the matter and given the possible repercussions, it makes sense as to why he might be interested in the results.
So, that can be considered as either a wild card or a Trump card, depending on one’s vantage point. Because if we do see USD/JPY rally back above 160.00 or perhaps even higher, the big question is whether both Scott Bessent and the Japanese Finance Ministry will just continue to take a step back, even if it makes them look weak in front of global macro markets.
As I shared yesterday, this can produce a backdrop similar to 2022, and this is pertinent both for the Dollar basket and USD/JPY, where a theoretically-capped upside leads to a vulnerable trend that could quickly unwind as soon as data going in the other direction appears. In 2022, it was below-expected CPI, even though headline was at 7.1% and core at 6.3%. And now, with markets tightened for Fed rate cuts into the end of the year, evidence going against that in the form of weak employment and weaker-than-expected inflation can lead to USD-weakness as those USD/JPY carry bets unwind.
In DXY, price is testing a familiar area. The 100 spot is what came in as support right around when the Fed started cutting rates in 2024. And then in 2025, it showed multiple iterations of resistance until finally being broken through earlier this year.
Now, it’s back as short-term resistance following the sell-off from last week. And for USD-bears this can be a huge area to look for some element of defense.
US Dollar Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY I’m of the opinion that this is still the eye of the storm. While it’s not bearish on a short-term basis there’s still the very real prospect of a swipe from policymakers, as both economies in the pair have spoken on the matter over the past week. It’s also clear that both Japan and the US would like USD/JPY to not go back up to those 40-year highs that were set a week ago, as there’s ramifications for both economies.
I highlighted this in the weekend video last Friday but the 155.00 area seemed a logical support as an intervention there wouldn’t make much sense. Ultimately, that’s around where the low has come into place. Yesterday there was an ascending triangle as resistance had come back in around 158, followed by higher-lows that’s since led to breakout. So, it seems we have a case of bulls reaching just a little bit further to see how far they might be able to get before getting swatted down by another intervention move.
The 160.00 area seems a logical spot to look for some element of defense. And the ramifications of that are that the pair can be seen as carrying a more limited upside appeal, as a continued rally can evoke another action like we saw last week. Like I said in yesterday’s video, this isn’t quite bearish, but it is something that can leave the pair vulnerable for a shift in data and with some major reports coming out of the US over the next week that’s a very real scenario that should be entertained.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: Along for the Ride While the Euro is a much larger component of DXY than the Japanese Yen, the build of the carry trade over the last five years means that there’s probably much more size behind the USD/JPY trend than anything in EUR/USD. Thus, when we get a move like last week, when USD/JPY carry traders rush for the exit, if it it’s a relatively minor move in the grand scheme of that market, we can similarly see USD-weakness play out against the Euro, which broke above the 1.1500 handle and has since built a bit of support at the big figure.
From both the daily and four-hour charts, this is a bullish trend. From the weekly, however, there’s still a bearish argument that can be made and I think that persists until we see 1.1576-1.1613 traded through with a closed-body break on the daily chart.
Perhaps the bigger question is one of venue, as USD-weakness may simply play more attractively elsewhere, such as the British Pound. For now, taking that daily chart, there’s support potential at 1.1500 and then down at 1.1455-1.1469, after which that 1.1402 level stands out as an important spot for the pair.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report.USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies. USD/JPY climbed towards the 158.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally 4%
DXY 060826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 199,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.
Traders also react to the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +4% as Houthis attacked Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Rising oil prices raised demand for safe-haven assets, which was bullish for the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 50 MA at 100.35. A move above the 50 MA will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.
EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Retail Sales Miss Estimates EUR/USD 060826 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.
Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Factory Orders report from Germany. The report showed that Factory Orders increased by +3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.
EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.1479. A move below the 50 MA will push EUR/USD towards the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435.
GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near Resistance At 1.3465 – 1.3480 GBP/USD 060826 4h Chart GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 despite rising oil prices. In the UK, traders focused on the Construction PMI report. The report indicated that UK Construction PMI improved from 38.4 in June to 44.7 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 40.
A successful test of the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Attempts To Rebound
USD/CAD 060826 4h Chart USD/CAD gains some ground as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4025 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4055. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 060826 4h Chart USD/JPY gained ground as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.67%. Rising Treasury yields are bullish for USD/JPY due to the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen in the near term.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Scotiabank highlights that the Euro is slightly softer versus the Dollar after touching levels last seen in mid-June, with fundamentals still supportive as yield spreads turn. Spot has nearly converged with their fair value based on the 2-year Germany–US spread. Further EUR/USD gains likely need a shift in relative central bank expectations or improved sentiment, with near-term range seen at 1.1500–1.1600.
Euro aligns with yield-spread fair value"The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD, trading defensively following an overnight push to a fresh local high reaching levels last seen in mid-June."
"Fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads. Spot EUR has largely closed the gap to our FV estimate narrowly based on the 2Y Germany-US yield spread, which currently stands at 1.1538."
"Further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness."
"In data, the second-tier euro area retail sales figures have offered a slight disappointment for June but were balanced by stronger German factory orders—neither release appears to have had any impact on spot."
"Bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s. The gains in spot have delivered a fresh multi-week high reaching levels last seen in mid-June, however we continue to note the persistence of near-term resistance around 1.1550. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies. Still, the near-term technical picture remains bullish following the late-July rebound from below 1.1400. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1534, down 0.15% on the day.
Traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations and drive volatility in EUR/USD.
Analysts at Scotiabank note that “fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads,” with spot now trading close to their fair-value estimates. However, they caution that “further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness.”
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the setup as “bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s,” but still expects consolidation, stating that “we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1474. However, topside progress is already challenged by the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, which cap the advance for now.
Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades above its short-term trend support.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1474, ahead of a more significant horizontal floor near 1.1350. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, while a stronger barrier awaits at the horizontal level of 1.1700.
A daily close above the 100-day SMA would open the way toward the 1.1629-1.1700 band, whereas a loss of the 1.1474 support area would suggest that the current bullish bias is starting to erode.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%0.00%0.28%0.04%0.26%0.12%0.31%EUR-0.17%-0.16%0.13%-0.13%0.07%-0.03%0.14%GBP-0.01%0.16%0.30%0.04%0.24%0.11%0.31%JPY-0.28%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.04%-0.16%0.04%CAD-0.04%0.13%-0.04%0.24%0.21%0.10%0.29%AUD-0.26%-0.07%-0.24%0.04%-0.21%-0.12%0.07%NZD-0.12%0.03%-0.11%0.16%-0.10%0.12%0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.14%-0.31%-0.04%-0.29%-0.07%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are approaching major technical resistance levels after recent rallies. Payrolls data could determine whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged or signals another hike. US Dollar awaits Nonfarm Payrolls as markets reassess Fed outlook The US Dollar remained in focus on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important economic release. Following a string of softer US economic indicators, investors have reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase, leaving Friday’s labour market data as the next major test for the greenback.
Recent declines in JOLTS job openings, weaker factory orders and softer private-sector hiring have fuelled speculation that the US labour market may finally be cooling after months of resilience. While Federal Reserve officials continue to insist that policy decisions remain data dependent, markets are increasingly looking for evidence that inflation pressures are easing enough to allow interest rates to remain unchanged.
A stronger-than-expected payrolls report would likely revive demand for the US Dollar by supporting higher Treasury yields and reinforcing expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Conversely, another disappointing employment report could increase pressure on the dollar as investors scale back expectations for additional policy tightening.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Holds Near Seven-Week High as German Factory Orders Beat Forecasts EUR/USD remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the euro holding near the 1.1550 level after mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly rose 3.1% in June, comfortably beating market expectations and signalling that Europe’s largest economy continues to show resilience despite elevated borrowing costs and global uncertainty. However, the positive manufacturing data was partly offset by weaker Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.3% in June, highlighting that consumer demand remains fragile.
The mixed data has done little to derail the euro’s recent recovery, as investors continue to trim expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. With EUR/USD trading near its highest level since mid-June, markets are now looking to Friday’s US jobs report to determine whether the pair can extend gains toward the 1.1600 psychological level or retreat as the dollar attempts to recover.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Holds Firm Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Sterling continues to outperform against the US dollar, with GBP/USD remaining close to recent highs as traders balance a resilient UK economy against growing uncertainty over US monetary policy. The Bank of England’s cautious approach to interest rates, combined with easing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, has provided steady support for the pound in recent sessions. Investors are also monitoring incoming UK economic data, including construction activity and labour market indicators, for fresh clues on whether the BoE will need to keep policy restrictive for longer.
However, the biggest catalyst for GBP/USD remains Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to shape expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. A softer-than-expected payrolls reading could weaken the US dollar further and allow sterling to challenge the 1.3500 resistance zone, while stronger employment data may trigger a pullback across major currency pairs.
US Dollar Outlook: Nonfarm Payrolls Set to Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US dollar remains the primary focus across global currency markets as investors position ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final major economic release before traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade below the psychologically important 100.00 level after retreating from recent highs, reflecting growing uncertainty over whether the Fed will need to tighten policy further to contain inflation. While Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain committed to restoring price stability, recent economic data has painted a more mixed picture, prompting markets to dial back expectations for another immediate rate hike.
Recent labour market indicators have weakened the dollar’s momentum. ADP private payrolls growth slowed sharply in July, while JOLTS job openings and factory orders also disappointed, suggesting that hiring demand and business activity are beginning to cool. Investors will now look to Friday’s official employment report for confirmation on whether the slowdown is broadening across the US economy. A stronger-than-expected payrolls reading could revive expectations for another Fed rate increase and lift the dollar, while softer employment data would reinforce expectations that policymakers are nearing the end of the current tightening cycle.
Beyond the labour market, Treasury yields and broader risk sentiment remain key drivers of the greenback. The recent decline in oil prices following progress in US-Iran negotiations has eased inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive for longer. At the same time, improving investor appetite for risk has limited demand for the US dollar’s traditional safe-haven appeal. With the DXY sitting near a key technical support zone and major currency pairs approaching important resistance levels, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is widely expected to determine the next major direction for the US dollar and the broader foreign exchange market.
Why is the US Dollar in focus today?
The US Dollar is in focus ahead of the July US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Why is the Nonfarm Payrolls report important?
The monthly US employment report provides one of the clearest indicators of labour market strength and often influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, making it one of the biggest market-moving events each month.
What could move GBP/USD higher?
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report or stronger UK economic data could help GBP/USD break above key resistance near 1.3500.
The US dollar rebounded this morning and that caused the EUR/USD and the price of gold and silver to ease back from their earlier highs following yesterday’s big precious metals rally. The greenback lost ground yesterday after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were edging closer to an agreement that could ease tensions in the Middle East and help stabilise energy markets. The prospect of lower oil prices reduced concerns over inflation, encouraging investors to trim expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while favouring currencies that were undermined by the prior energy spike, such as the euro. However, as the anticipated announcement has so far failed to materialise, the dollar has recovered part of its losses, with investors becoming increasingly reluctant to chase risk ahead of key US data in the days ahead. The EUR/USD forecast remains cautious for now.
Iran deal or no deal? Markets embraced the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, with expectations that any agreement could lead to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
That encouraged flows into equities and precious metals while weighing on the greenback, as easing energy prices would lessen inflationary pressures and potentially reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy for longer.
Yet again though, that enthusiasm has faded as the expected confirmation has so far failed to arrive. While negotiations may be progressing, traders are now demanding concrete developments rather than reacting solely to headlines. For now, the possibility of a deal continues to provide a supportive backdrop for broader risk sentiment, but it wouldn’t take much for markets to falter.
This keeps the near-term EUR/USD forecast highly uncertain. If oil prices were to spike again, then surely the currency pair will fall alongside risk.
Payrolls and inflation now take centre stage Meanwhile, attention will be shifting towards US economic data, with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report representing the next major test for financial markets, followed by CPI next week.
This week’s pre-NFP indicators have painted a mixed-to-weak picture. Private-sector hiring has cooled, while the employment component within the latest ISM services survey suggested labour market conditions may be softening. Today’s release of weekly unemployment data showed jobless claims rose by 199K vs. 203K eyed.
Policymakers from the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stressed that future decisions remain data dependent, meaning one report is unlikely to alter expectations dramatically unless it delivers a significant surprise.
Markets currently remain relatively steady in their expectations for Fed policy over the coming months, despite the sharp decline in oil prices this week. That highlights how investors are placing greater emphasis on labour market data and inflation than on short-term swings in commodity prices.
Looking beyond payrolls, next week’s CPI report is likely to prove even more influential. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations that the Fed may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, supporting the dollar. Conversely, another soft inflation print could place renewed pressure on the US currency. As you may recall, the June report showed a bigger than expected decline in headline CPI to 3.5% compared a prior reading of 4.2%, while core CPI was also softer at 2.6% compared to both expectations and the prior reading (2.9%).
Technical EUR/USD forecast and levels to watch Source: TradingView.com The EUR/USD has held above the 1.1500 handle this week, keeping the near-term technical bias to the upside. It is not trying to break its bearish trend line, and a big bad of resistance between 1.1560 to 1.1620ish. Without a collapse in oil prices, or significantly weaker US data, the balance of risks remain tilted to the downside for the EUR/USD forecast from here, given that markets have priced in a deal already. Technically, a break below 1.1500 support could see the pair head down to low 1.14s again, the base of the recent breakout.
Gold sees early gains ease but buyers stay in a good spot in second half of the weekEquities take a step back as investors can't shake off AI spending concernsS&P 500 soars to record highs as geopolitical risks ease; focus shifts to US CPI dataThe dollar's next move hinges on inflation, while the yen waits for the BoJUS-based employers announce fewest job cuts in two years in JulyGerman construction activity continues to struggle at the start of Q3UK construction slump eases in July amid rebound in client demandMarkets:
WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $75.80USD leads, CHF lags on the dayGold up 0.2% to $4,255S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down 0.4%US 10-year yields up 2.6 bps to 4.64%Bitcoin down 0.3% to $64,565It was a session where markets are taking a bit of a breather in not really chasing any moves too much.
The jump higher in gold and tech selloff yesterday is still reverberating, and market players are gathering their steps again in approaching the second half of the week.
Without any fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, there wasn't much else to work with on the session. As such, the focus and attention now shifts to the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
Gold remains in the spotlight after early buying in Asia saw price run to a high of $4,303 before settling to $4,255 now - still up 0.2% on the day.
Meanwhile, oil prices are also keeping a little higher with WTI crude up 0.8% to $75.80 amid a more cautious mood surrounding the situation in the Middle East.
In other markets, the dollar was not up to much as currency traders continue to be sidelined in trying to figure out their next steps after the USD/JPY joint intervention. The dollar is keeping steadier today with EUR/USD down 0.1% to 1.1540 and USD/JPY up 0.1% to 157.90 currently.
And following the tech selloff yesterday led by SpaceX, Nasdaq futures are once again down today by 0.4%. Dow futures are once again keeping higher and that is seeing S&P 500 futures hold a slender 0.1% gain ahead of the open. All eyes will be on how tech shares fare next after some heavy bleeding in Asia with the KOSPI closing over 4% lower.
Besides that, 10-year Treasury yields are seen nudging back up a little by 3 bps to 4.64% and that will keep broader markets in check so as to not get all too optimistic in the grand scheme of things.
It's on to the US weekly jobless claims next before we move on to a full countdown mode ahead of the non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
The Euro took advantage on the Intervention with the Yen to test the downtrend as we see from the chart, which in return pushed for a correction
A trading zone between 1.1435 and 1.1560 could hold prices until one of the boundaries break.
Above 1.1560 could open the door towards 1.1685 and 1.1795.
Below 1.1435 more of a drop toward 1.1320 and 1.1210 is likely.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.435-80 1.1560 LEVEL2 1.1320 1.1685 LEVEL3 1.1210 1.1795 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum.
It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level. A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended modest gains to close at 1.1551, with mild upward momentum still intact. Intraday, the pair may test 1.1565, though a move to 1.1600 is seen as unlikely without stronger momentum. On a 1–3 week horizon, a sustained rise requires a daily close above 1.1565 while holding above 1.1495 support.
Euro's grind higher faces key hurdles"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565.” We were not wrong, as EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 before settling at 1.1551 (+0.19%). The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.1530 (minor support is at 1.1540) would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” While EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 yesterday, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. In other words, EUR still must close above 1.1565 before further sustained rises can be expected. The odds of EUR closing above 1.1565 will remain intact as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 1.1495 (level was at 1.1470 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Lower-than-expected ADP Employment leads the Dollar Index to slip. Watch crucial support near 99.50, which needs to hold to keep the upside view intact. The index could be volatile this week with the US jobless claims data release today and NFP tomorrow. Euro can attempt to test 1.16 while USDJPY can take a breather and remain stable. EURJPY can rise towards 184 while Aussie and Pound can see a near-term rise towards 0.71 and 1.35 before pausing for a reversal. USDCNY holds below 6.75 and could slowly head towards 6.70 while USDINR needs to decisively break below 95 to open a downside target of 94.75/50 else can see bounce from current levels towards 95.25/50 again.
The US Treasury Yields are managing to hold above their key support. A strong bounce is needed from here to avoid an extended fall and also to resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields are hovering above their support. We expect them to bounce back from here and resume their uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its key support. A further fall from here will confirm the resumption of the broader downtrend and drag it lower. The RBI kept their policy rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting yesterday.
Dow can extend its rally towards 55000-55500, while DAX remains bullish above 26000 with scope to rise towards 27000-27500. Nifty continues to hold above the key 24500 support and can advance towards 24800-25000. Nikkei has resumed its upward momentum and can rise further towards 67000-68000. Shanghai is approaching the key 3900 resistance, with a sustained break opening the way towards 4000-4050.
Brent and WTI remain vulnerable to further declines towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold has turned bullish after breaking above its previous range and can rise further towards $4500. Silver has also strengthened and can extend its gains towards $65-$70. Copper remains constructive and needs a sustained break above $6.80 to continue its rally towards $6.85-$6.90; otherwise, a pullback towards $6.60-$6.50 is possible. Natural Gas remains weak and can decline towards $2.65 in the near term.
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