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Key Points:Strong credit growth and higher energy prices may keep inflation risks elevated and delay any dovish shift from the Fed.The US Dollar Index could extend its short-term rise if rate hike expectations remain firm.EURUSD may stay under pressure and could move toward 1.12 if key support levels fail.

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The US interest rate outlook remains uncertain despite the softer inflation report for June. Strong credit growth and rising energy prices could keep inflation risks elevated and the Fed hawkish. The central bank may keep rates unchanged in the near term and use other tools to limit the liquidity. This cautious policy outlook could support the US dollar index in the short term while keeping EURUSD under pressure.

Credit Growth Raises US Inflation and Fed Rate Risks Credit Growth Points to Longer-Term Inflation Risks The drop in US CPI in June does not eliminate the broader inflation risk. Consumer price data is volatile and can change monthly due to the instability of energy prices. Inflation may again turn positive in the near future due to the recent increase in oil and fuel prices. This makes it difficult for Fed to view pricing pressures as under control based on one soft inflation report.

Credit growth gives a better picture of the long term inflation risks. The 12-month change in domestic debt was 5.7% as compared to the 2.7% increase in real GDP over the same period. This 3% gap indicates that the credit grew at a higher rate than the real economy. This implies that the additional borrowing could be a source of persistent inflationary pressure if the increase in spending is not matched by an increase in output of goods and services.

The inflation may be growing beneath the surface in the second quarter. Bank credit growth picked up to 7.4% for the 12 months ending in June before a drop to 7.0%. But the real GDP growth was at 2.7%. This means that the credit was growing 4.7 percentage point faster than the real output. This would make it more difficult for the Fed to get inflation down to the 2% target, despite more stable energy prices.

The chart below shows the historical data for credit growth and real GDP. It is found that bank credit has often grown faster than the economy. This does not always lead to higher inflation but it can raise inflation risks when extra borrowing increases spending faster than the production.

Fed May Keep Rates Steady for Now Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the current policy rate is suitable for the time being. He also said that the Fed may have to change its stance if inflationary pressure does not cool down soon. That means the Fed may not hike rates at its July 28-29 meeting but will leave the door open. Higher energy prices, tariff impacts and higher demand associated with AI investments may make a case for tighter policy later.

Fed Could Tighten Liquidity Without Raising Its Main Rate Chair Kevin Warsh may also prefer to keep rates unchanged over the coming months while he assesses inflation, economic growth and the effects of earlier policy decisions. This means that the Fed could resort to other policy measures to reduce credit growth without raising its primary rate.

One possibility would be to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. The central bank could allow more Treasury securities to mature without replacing them. It may also be able to reverse some of the $200 billion that it added to its balance sheet since December. This would drain liquidity out of the financial system and reduce the reserves of commercial banks.

But there would be significant risks if the balance sheets were reduced aggressively. Bank reserves might drop below US$3 trillion and stress short term funding markets.

This issue took the form of a spike in the Repo rates in 2019 which necessitated the Fed to alter its course. Hedge funds also hold large leveraged Treasury positions funded through the repo market. A sharp increase in repo rates could force them to sell bonds and increase volatility in Treasury market.

The Fed’s reverse repo balance is now almost back to zero. The Fed might offer a higher rate in order to draw some cash back from money market funds. This may reduce liquidity in private markets. But the effect could be small as facility now holds very little money.

US Dollar Index Forecast: Fed Rate Risks Support the Dollar Fed Policy and Inflation Risks Support the US Dollar The US Dollar Index could still find some support in the short term as investors are looking for the Fed to maintain its restrictive policy stance. The prospect of a future rate hike could also drive Treasury yields and demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, markets will likely continue to graze on the notion that the higher interest rates could persist for longer as U.S. credit growth strengthened and energy inflation increased.

But the long term outlook for the dollar is less positive if the Fed hikes yields to protect the Treasury market. In the first quarter, nominal GDP expanded at an annual rate of 6.1%. This is well above the 10-year Treasury yield. If the bond yield is lower than nominal growth, it could result in negative interest rates. This may make the dollar less valuable and force investors to turn to gold, stocks and other tangible assets.

US Dollar Index Technical Outlook Points to 104 The weekly chart for the US dollar index shows that the index broke the key 100.50 level in June 2026 and triggered a rally to a high of 101.80. After encountering short-term resistance at 101.80, the US dollar Index corrected back toward the 100.50 level last week and marked a low.

The formation of a rounding bottom since June 2025 and the breakout above 100.50 indicate that the short-term direction for the US dollar is higher. A break above 101.80 may push the US dollar Index toward 104 in the short term.

But a break above the 104 level may push the index toward the 106–107 zone, which is the overall resistance marked by the descending trendline extending from the October 2022 highs. But the overall long term trend for the US dollar Index remains bearish.

The importance of the current support zone is also seen on the monthly chart which shows that June closed above the key resistance level of 100.50. This suggests that a break above June highs may push the index toward the resistance levels of 104 and 106 in the short term.

But a break below the 96 level may break the ascending channel pattern and push the index toward the 90 level.

EURUSD Forecast: Fed and ECB Policies Drive the Next Move Fed and ECB Rate Outlook Keeps EURUSD Under Pressure EURUSD may remain under pressure in the near term as the ECB expects to hold rates on July 23 and the Fed continues to signal a hawkish stance on rate hikes in September.

Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8% in June, but still remains above the ECB’s 2% target rate. The chances of an imminent rate hike could be low due to weak economic growth, but rising oil, gas and electricity prices could keep eurozone inflation prospects high.

The pair could recover from the grounds if the ECB hikes rates in September, while the Fed holds. The latest surge in energy prices has led markets to factor in two more rate hikes by the ECB this year. The ECB would have to deliver a more robust policy response to move the eurozone closer towards the U.S. interest rate. But if eurozone growth is weak, EURUSD may struggle to rally significantly.

EURUSD Technical Outlook Points to 1.12 Support The strong rally in the US dollar index since January 2026 has pushed EURUSD down toward support at 1.1375. EURUSD has been consolidating around this support level since the June 2026 lows and is looking for its next direction.

If EURUSD breaks below this support level, it may put further pressure on the pair and push it toward 1.1260. The 1.1260 level remains the key support, defined by support line of the broadening wedge pattern. This support line extends from the May 2025 low.

The EURUSD direction remains bullish in the long term as the US dollar Index remains bearish. A break below 96 in the US dollar Index will likely push EURUSD higher in the long term.

The importance of the current support zone in EURUSD is also highlighted on the daily chart. The chart shows that 1.1360 to 1.1470 remains the critical support zone where the pair is currently consolidating. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs also remain in negative territory.

But the RSI has rebounded from oversold levels and moved toward the midpoint. This indicates that a break below 1.1350 may push EURUSD further down to the 1.12 zone.

Bottom Line Credit growth and higher energy prices may keep US inflation risks elevated in the short term. The Fed may leave rates unchanged in the near term but it is unlikely to turn dovish while the inflation risks persist. It may instead use its balance sheet or other liquidity tools to slow credit growth. But the Fed must avoid tightening too quickly because stress in funding markets could raise bond volatility.

The US Dollar Index may stay strong above 100.50 and could test 101.80 and 104 if rate expectations remain high. EURUSD may remain weak as long as it remains below the 1.1645. A break below 1.1320 could push the pair toward 1.12. But the long term outlook for EURUSD may improve if the dollar breaks the long term support of the 96 level.

Read more: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Builds as USDJPY Eyes 175

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Editors’ Picks

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after recovering from June lows near 1.1325, but Goldman Sachs believes options markets are signalling renewed downside risks for the pair.

EUR/USD has remained relatively stable through July, gaining around 0.3% so far this month after falling more than 2% in June.

Goldman Sachs highlights developments in the options market, particularly swaptions, as a warning that investors may be preparing for greater downside exposure in the Euro-Dollar pair.

The bank argues that while EUR/USD has been supported by a period of Dollar weakness and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, the balance of risks has become less favourable for the Euro.

A key concern is that markets may have become too comfortable with the recent range-bound environment. Renewed volatility, changes in interest-rate expectations or a return of Dollar demand could quickly challenge EUR/USD support.

Goldman Sachs continues to monitor the interaction between rates markets and currency positioning, with options pricing suggesting investors are increasingly willing to protect against a move lower.

The Euro also faces challenges from the broader macro backdrop. While expectations for further European Central Bank tightening have provided some support, growth concerns and energy-related risks remain potential headwinds.

With EUR/USD currently holding close to the 1.14 area, Goldman Sachs sees the options market as highlighting the possibility that the next significant move could be lower rather than a continuation of the recent recovery.

Key Points:GBP/USD remains under pressure as pullback continues. USD/CAD attempts to settle below the support at 1.4010 - 1.4025.USD/JPY remains stuck near the 162.50 level.

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U.S. Dollar Continues To Rebound As Traders Focus On Consumer Sentiment Data

DXY 170726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the better-than-expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report indicated that Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased from 49.5 in June to 54.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 51.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at housing market data. Housing Starts increased by +19% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of 0%. Building Permits decreased by -3%, while analysts expected that they would drop by -0.7%.

U.S. Dollar Index settled above the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and is moving towards the 50 MA at 100.90. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30.

EUR/USD Is Mostly Flat Ahead Of The Weekend EUR/USD 170726 4h Chart EUR/USD is stuck near the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435 as traders focus on U.S. economic data. Industrial Production increased by +0.1% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.

In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. On the upside, a move above the 1.1450 level will push EUR/USD towards the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure GBP/USD 170726 4h Chart GBP/USD tested new lows as pullback continued. Traders focused on the rally in the oil markets, which was triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East.

If GBP/USD stays below the 1.3450 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3413. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3535 – 1.3550.

USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025

USD/CAD 170726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on rising gold and silver prices. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in Canada today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle below the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.4010 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI has moved back into moderate territory, but there is some room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Stays Close To Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 170726 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near the 162.50 level as traders focus on dynamics of Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.16% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.55%.

Traders are cautious amid worries about potential interventions from the Bank of Japan. However, BoJ’s interventions failed to provide support to the yen in 2026. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 162.80 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level.

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The EUR/USD forecast remains biased to the downside as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin demand for both crude oil and the US dollar. Although this week’s softer US inflation readings briefly encouraged hopes that the Fed may not have to tightening after all, the renewed rise in oil prices has complicated that narrative and prompted investors to reassess the outlook. As such, they have found it difficult to justify shorting higher-yielding currencies or buying low or zero yielding assets. This narrative is unlikely to change much until there is genuine breakthrough in the tension between the US and Iran.

Dollar remains on front-foot as oil risk clouds inflation outlook This week we had some weak inflation numbers from the US, and that caused only temporary weakness in US dollar. Both consumer and producer inflation surprised on the downside, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures are gradually easing. Under normal circumstances, that would have weighed on the greenback more meaningfully. Instead, markets have been reluctant to fully embrace that view as crude oil prices continue to climb amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Higher energy prices raise the risk that inflation proves more persistent later in the year, potentially delaying any shift towards easier monetary policy. While investors still expect inflation to moderate over the medium term, the near-term backdrop has become considerably less favourable for dollar bears. I continue to believe that a stronger dollar is the more likely outcome in so far as the near-term is concerned, assuming geopolitical risks do not fade abruptly, and energy prices retreat. That makes the near-term EUR/USD forecast slightly bearish.

Fed policymakers remain reluctant to soften their stance Despite encouraging inflation data, Federal Reserve officials have made little effort to signal an imminent policy pivot. Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Chris Waller both reiterated that one or two favourable inflation reports are insufficient evidence that price stability has been restored. With crude oil prices moving sharply higher, policymakers will be wary of declaring victory too early. Energy costs rising means the Fed is unlikely to abandon its cautious approach until it sees sustained evidence that inflation is returning towards target. Markets continue to price in one rate increase before year-end. Should expectations shift towards a more aggressive policy path, the dollar could extend its recent gains while risk assets may struggle to maintain their resilience.

ECB meeting could provide the next catalyst For the euro, attention now turns to next week’s European Central Bank meeting. Although policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, rising energy prices have injected a degree of uncertainty into the outlook. The ECB faces an uncomfortable balancing act. On one hand, inflation has continued to moderate across much of the eurozone. On the other, higher oil prices threaten to revive inflationary pressures while simultaneously weighing on economic growth, raising the spectre of stagflation.

Some policymakers may therefore argue for maintaining a hawkish bias to preserve the ECB’s inflation-fighting credibility. Investors will be paying close attention to President Lagarde’s guidance for clues on whether policymakers are becoming more concerned about renewed energy-driven inflation.

Beyond the ECB, next week’s flash PMI surveys will offer a timely snapshot of business activity across the major economies and could shape expectations for both European growth and the direction of the euro over the coming weeks.

Technical EUR/USD forecast: Key levels to watch The EUR/USD managed to find support from the support trend of its flag pattern near the 1.1380 area earlier this week. That led to a bounce to test resistance and the bearish trend line around 1.1475/80 zone. From there, we have since seen renewed weakness. As a result, the EUR/USD continues to remain inside its bear flag pattern, and below the bearish trend line. While momentum is clearly lacking, the overall technical bias is one that leans slightly on the bearish side of things. The onus is on the bulls to show up and change that trend. Until that happens, the near-term EUR/USD forecast from a technical analysis point of view remains to the downside.

Source: TradingView.com Should the EUR/USD break below the bear flag, then the next target would be the 1.1300 handle. Conversely, a break above the short-term bearish trend could expose the 1.1500 handle for a retest with the next resistance not seen until 1.1575 – 1.1600 area.

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1445 during the European trading session on Friday. The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with caution amid continued military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.

In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 101.70.

Earlier in the day, Iran asked Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, Reuters reports.

The threat from Iran is a response to remarks from US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News, in which he said that military forces would be authorized to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if the nation doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.

A further disruption in the global energy supply would squeeze the already-low global oil supply, which could further accelerate fears of high inflation globally.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver more interest rate hikes amid fears of second-round inflation effects in the Eurozone.

ECB Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said earlier this week that the central bank remains vigilant to Middle East developments, while warning that policymakers will act decisively if necessary.

Nagel keeps ECB vigilant but tempers hawkish edge for the EuroECB's Nagel scores 6.4/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic 7.2/10 baseline, signaling a slightly softer tone versus past communications. The emphasis on reacting "with caution" but "decisively if necessary" points to a moderately hawkish stance, yet less forceful than usual, suggesting the Euro may see limited upside unless data re-energizes policy conviction.

The pledge that monetary policy will "maintain its vigilant stance" reinforces a readiness to tighten or resist premature easing, supporting the Euro against more dovish expectations. However, the reference to recent geopolitical "hopes and disappointments" introduces uncertainty, implying that while vigilance remains, conviction is constrained, which caps the hawkish impact reflected in the lower FXS Speechtracker score.

Key Points:Strong U.S. retail sales and resilient jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.DXY remains below trendline resistance, with a break above 100.77 needed to revive near-term bullish momentum.EUR/USD continues consolidating beneath key resistance while holding above both major moving averages.GBP/USD remains in a broader uptrend as buyers defend trendline support despite the recent pullback.

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US Dollar News: Strong Data Reinforces Fed’s Cautious Stance The U.S. Dollar’s technical profile is underpinned by better than expected data which highlighted steady retail sales and a strong jobs market. June retail sales saw 0.2% month on month growth while the control group rose 0.4%, both indicating underlying resilience in consumer demand. Initial jobless claims came in at 221,000 which highlighted a strong labour market. The data has tempered expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates this year as retail sales and unemployment remain relatively strong even though overall growth has slowed.

Meanwhile, The Euro’s outlook is weighed down by slowing growth prospects in the eurozone with the ECB keeping rates stable at its 2.25% deposit rate, according to futures.

Sterling has also found support following the central bank’s hawkish policy stance after UK inflation remains too high. The consensus is that policymakers will be holding the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This view is consistent with persistent price pressures as well as some easing in the labor market, both before the next rate decision.

US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Rejected Below Trendline as Bears Defend 100.77 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 100.69, after another test off the descending trendline at 100.77 resistance. DXY remains below 100.79 (50 EMA) and 100.87 (100 EMA) and the trendline which has been a source of repeated tests, confirming the short term bearish bias.

The 100.61 support level is followed by 100.52 and 100.35 while 100.77 resistance is followed by 101.03.RSI has dropped to ~47, indicating a potential slowdown in buyer momentum and a neutral-bearish tone overall. I’ll wait for the market to trade through 100.77 on my way to 101.03, with 100.61 being an important key level to flip if traded through.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pullback Holds Above Trendline as Uptrend Remains Intact GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is near 1.3472 after a retreat from last week’s highs around 1.3559. Buyers are defending the trendline, as GBP/USD remains above the 50 EMA at 1.3449 and the 100 EMA at 1.3415. The price remains bullish despite a short term decline since higher highs and higher lows are intact on a larger picture.

GBP/USD faces 1.3507 resistance, with 1.3560 resistance ahead of that. Price is supported by 1.3449, which is followed by 1.3340 support. The RSI cooled to ~51, indicating that the correction has likely been a short term dip rather than a trend reversal. I’ll look to trade a breakout through 1.3507 on my way to 1.3560, with a drop below 1.3449 likely targeting 1.3340.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Hold Above 50 EMA While Testing Key Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Euro is at 1.1450, consolidating below the 1.1461 resistance level after extending its rally in the previous sessions. The 1.1437 (50 EMA) and 1.1431 (100 EMA) levels are still supporting price action and the market remains bullish despite being turned down by overhead resistance.

The trend structure resembles a tightening symmetrical triangle with 1.1412 support at 1.1379. The 1.1461 resistance is followed by 1.1493.

The RSI is hovering around ~54, indicating a low degree of bullish momentum with room before entering overbought territory. I’ll wait for confirmation of a 1.1461 breach on my way to 1.1493, with a breakdown at 1.1412 likely sending price back toward 1.1379.

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Editors’ Picks

The EUR/USD pair ticks lower for the second straight day on Friday as energy-driven inflation fears revive US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions.

Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1435 region, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched on Wednesday.

From a technical perspective, this week's breakout momentum above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall faltered near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting marginally negative. Momentum indicators hint that bullish attempts may remain constrained.

On the downside, the main structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near 1.1330, which aligns with the latest swing low and could attract buyers on a deeper pullback.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at 1.1477 ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1508. A sustained break above these would open the door toward higher Fibonacci hurdles at 1.1563 and 1.1618, if bullish pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1440 area on Thursday, retreating around 0.2% as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from stronger-than-expected United States (US) labor market data.

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K in the week ending July 11, below expectations of 217K and the previous 216K. The figures indicate that layoffs remain limited, supporting the Greenback despite signs of softer consumer spending.

US Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, matching expectations but slowing from May’s 1.0% increase. The Retail Sales Control Group advanced 0.5%, also in line with forecasts but below the previous 0.8%, suggesting that consumption momentum moderated.

In the Eurozone, investors await June inflation data. Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, while headline HICP is forecast to decline 0.1% on the month. A softer inflation reading could strengthen expectations of a less restrictive European Central Bank (ECB) policy stance and place additional pressure on the Euro.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1436, maintaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1428 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1413. The short-term trade is underpinned by these clustered SMA supports, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests balanced momentum after the recent recovery earlier in the week, hinting that dips could continue to attract buying interest as long as the pair stays over the moving average floor.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at 1.1447, followed by a tighter band of barriers at 1.1457, 1.1466 and 1.1472, where prior horizontal caps could slow further gains. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 1.1428, with stronger structural demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near 1.1413; a sustained drop below this latter level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back as traders reacted to economic reports from U.S. and UK. USD/CAD made an attempt to settle below the support level at 1.4010 - 1.4025.USD/JPY gained ground amid rising Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To Economic Data

DXY 160726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates. Retail Sales Ex Autos declined by -0.2%, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 208,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 217.000. The report showed that labor market remained in decent shape, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.

NAHB Housing Market Index decreased from 36 (revised from 35) in June to 34 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 35.

U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the support at 100.50 – 100.65 and is trying to settle above the 100.75 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the 50 MA at 100.92. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30.

EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Take Profits After Recent Rebound EUR/USD 160726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulls back as traders focus on economic reports from the U.S. Pending Home Sales declined by -5.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.5%.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range.

GBP/USD Pulls Back As UK Industrial Production Misses Estimates GBP/USD 160726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on UK GDP report. The report showed that UK GDP increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, in line with analyst consensus.

Manufacturing Production increased by +0.1% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of -0.2%. Industrial Production decreased by -0.5%, while analysts expected that it would drop by -0.1%.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the support level at 1.3450 – 1.3465, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3400. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.

USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025 USD/CAD 160726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver tested strong support at $56.00. Other commodity-related currencies are losing some ground in today’s trading session.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025. In case USD/CAD settles below the 1.4010 level, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is close to the oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rebound USD/JPY 160726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders react to the rebound in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.17% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.58%.

USD/JPY is moving towards multi-decade highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

EUR/USD trades with a downside bias on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following recent losses driven by softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1457, down modestly on the day.

Market sentiment remains fragile as renewed tensions in the Middle East push Oil prices higher, raising concerns that June's inflation slowdown may prove short-lived. This is limiting the downside in the US Dollar as traders continue to expect a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.60 after falling to 100.35 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 18.

The Greenback found additional support after the latest US labour market data showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K in the week ending July 11. The reading was below the 217K forecast.

US Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, in-line with expectations. May's reading was slightly revised upward to 1.0% from 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also came in as expected at 0.5%, down from May's 0.8% increase.

On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Reuters reported, citing sources, that Iran had instructed Yemen’s Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the US attacks its power network. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $80 and gaining around 12% so far this week.

Higher energy prices have also revived expectations of another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike. A Reuters poll released on Thursday showed that all 74 economists expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at its July meeting, while a 70% majority expect one more increase this year, most likely in September.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%0.21%0.05%-0.18%-0.04%-0.04%0.30%EUR-0.10%0.11%-0.04%-0.27%-0.06%-0.13%0.20%GBP-0.21%-0.11%-0.13%-0.37%-0.18%-0.24%0.11%JPY-0.05%0.04%0.13%-0.25%-0.02%-0.10%0.25%CAD0.18%0.27%0.37%0.25%0.22%0.15%0.49%AUD0.04%0.06%0.18%0.02%-0.22%-0.05%0.28%NZD0.04%0.13%0.24%0.10%-0.15%0.05%0.33%CHF-0.30%-0.20%-0.11%-0.25%-0.49%-0.28%-0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower to near 1.1460 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday after giving back its early gains. The EUR/USD pair turns upside down as the US Dollar bounces back amid fears that elevated energy prices due to Middle East tensions will keep global inflation projections de-anchored.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.57.

Crude oil prices are likely to stay higher as the global energy supply is expected to remain disrupted amid fears that the military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran would widen. During the day, an Iranian army spokesperson said that the US continues to attack several areas, while warning that the war will spread to new arenas, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump also warned, in an interview with Fox News, that he will authorize bombing Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t return to the table for negotiations.

In the last two trading days, the US Dollar faced selling pressure as traders scaled back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations due to cooling US inflationary pressures in June.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Retail Sales data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Retail Sales are estimated to have risen at a moderate pace of 0.2% Month-on-Month (MoM) against 0.9% in May.

Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 16, 2026 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 0.2%

Previous: 0.9%

Source: US Census Bureau

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has broken above prior resistance, with rapid gains seen up to 1.1482. Intraday, the pair is seen capable of testing 1.1490 while staying below significant resistance at 1.1520. Over the next 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is building quickly, with an upside bias as long as 1.1405 strong support holds.

Rapid gains support constructive outlook"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR popped to a high of 1.1462 two days ago before retreating quickly. When EUR was at 1.1425 yesterday, we stated that “the brief rise did not result in any significant increase in momentum,” and we expected it to “trade in a range between 1.1390 and 1.1455.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. EUR initially dropped to 1.1405 before rising sharply to 1.1482. While the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490. We do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view. Support is at 1.1450; a breach of 1.1435 would mean that the immediate upward pressure has eased."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (14 Jul, spot at 1.1385), we detected a slight increase in downward momentum. However, we pointed out that EUR “must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected.” After EUR broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level, we highlighted yesterday (15 Jul, spot at 1.1425) that “the mild downward momentum has eased, and EUR has likely reverted into a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1475.” We did not expect EUR to break above 1.1475 so soon as it soared to a high of 1.1482. Upward momentum is building quickly, and from here, as long as 1.1405 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached, EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias. Currently, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Key Points:GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to U.S. PPI data. USD/CAD moved lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY was mostly flat as traders ignored falling Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As PPI Misses Estimates

DXY 150726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving lower as traders react to Producer Prices report. The report indicated that Producer Prices decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of 0%. Core PPI increased by +0.2%, while analysts forecasted that it would grow by +0.4%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index report. The report showed that NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved from 5.70 in June to 15.60 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 8.8.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 100.50 – 100.65. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next support, which is located in the 99.75 – 99.90 range.

EUR/USD Remains Stuck Near The 1.1435 Level EUR/USD 150726 4h Chart EUR/USD is moving higher despite the weaker-than-expected Industrial Production report. The report indicated that Industrial Production decreased by -0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%.

The technical picture remains unchanged as EUR/USD is stuck near the resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. If EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1435 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.

GBP/USD Tests New Highs GBP/USD 150726 4h Chart GBP/USD rallied as traders reacted to the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data and remained focused on U.S. CPI report, which was released yesterday.

GBP/USD climbed above the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465 and is trying to settle above the 1.3500 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3535 – 1.3550 range. It should be noted that RSI has moved into overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are increasing.

USD/CAD 150726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving lower despite the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined below the $4050 level, while silver settled below $57.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.

The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3915 – 1.3930. RSI is in the oversold territory, but there is some room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

On the upside, a move above the 1.4080 level will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.

USD/JPY Is Flat As Traders Ignore Falling Treasury Yields USD/JPY 150726 4h Chart USD/JPY is mostly flat despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.55%.

Traders stay bullish due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. The market believes that BoJ cannot raise rates without putting too much pressure on the Japanese economy.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

EUR/USD Talking Points: After showing strength in early 2026 trade EUR/USD bears took over in May and early-June. The sell-off has since slowed although buyers have yet to make much ground above 1.1469, begging the question as to whether a short squeeze and pullback could bring on bigger picture trend continuation potential. After a strong rally a year ago as markets were getting ready for FOMC rate cuts, EUR/USD has so far spent much of this year grinding, although there has been some short-term trend to work with. In early 2026 trade buyers were making a move, eventually setting a fresh four-year-high in the pair.

But as the Iran conflict took over so too did the fear of European energy vulnerability, and the Euro was hit hard in March to test below the 1.1500 level. A bounce in April was faded in May and June – but so far in July, that move has been stalled and price has been sitting around the 1.1400 handle, begging the question as to which trend will take over next.

EUR/USD Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Next Steps A sell-off stalling can be read as either an impending reversal or a pause in trend. At this point, at least from a relative since with gold and Bitcoin rallying as GBP/USD showing greater strength, I think the bias indicates more of a pause than an impending reversal.

But – with that said, it’s the reaction to a rally and pullback that will illustrate which option is favorable moving forward. I covered this in yesterday’s webinar, as we can still make the claim of lower-lows in the pair from both weekly and monthly charts. But from the daily below we can see where that’s been somewhat messy, although there’s an important message contained in these candles. Sellers have so far responded to pullbacks, holding resistance around 1.1450. But, they’ve also swung less and less weight, illustrated by the higher-lows that have built over the past few weeks.

This indicates an oversold market and one that’s difficult to push for trend-side continuation at this point. It also highlights the possibility of a short-term bullish breakout, which could open the door for bigger picture trend continuation if sellers make a move on follow-through resistance. The 1.1500 area is an ideal spot to look for that to play above current highs, and then there’s a zone of prior support spanning from 1.1576 up to 1.1613 above that that’s of interest.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: How to Position For Reversal From the above two charts we can see the bearish case fairly well illustrated by the lower-lows and highs that have shown in the pair. While many retail traders will try to trade reversals at the early stage, the fact of the matter is that until bulls show greater demand the forces of trend should be considered as bearish.

For trend traders, this means that they often will not get every pip of every move, and that’s somewhat of the point, as they’re instead trying to focus on probabilities and in this case, the more cogent way of going about the matter would be waiting for price to break above the lower-highs that have so far held, around the 1.1450 area, and then waiting for bulls to stretch up to deeper resistance, whether at 1.1500 or the zone above.

And then the corresponding reaction to that, can then be sought as a higher-low for those looking for the reversal theme. That way, if strength does not pan out, they can, at the least, abandon the trade upon a break to fresh lows.

At this point, we’re just not there yet from the daily chart so until that is the case, I’m looking at rallies in EUR/USD as short-term counter-trend setups.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

US Dollar News: Softer Inflation Reshapes Fed Outlook The evolving monetary policies, particularly with the release of June’s inflation numbers in the United States, are causing shifts in the value of the dollar, sterling and the euro. U.S. annual inflation for July fell to 3.5% from June’s 4.2%, with core inflation also falling, to 2.6%. This caused a rapid decrease in the projected likelihood of a July 28-29 Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Demand for U.S. futures implied only a 10% likelihood of a July hike. Earlier estimates placed U.S. interest rate hikes at a 35% probability, indicating the bulk of interest rate conjecture has moved to September.

The euro has risen in value with speculation that the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at 2.25% and also Curb inflation and growth in the euro region.

The pound also remains strong as it is expected the Bank of England will continue to err on the side of caution. U.K. inflation has also been little influenced by renewed Middle Eastern conflict. Governor Andrew Bailey remains focused on other economic data.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is DXY Building Momentum for a Move Toward $101.22? Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around the 100.88 mark, consolidating above the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at $100.59 and the 50 EMA at $100.23. The 100 EMA at $99.66 is helping the uptrend. The last few DXY candlesticks display small bodies showing consolidation below $101.22, right after the bullish breakout from the previous descending triangle. $100.88 is the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is providing immediate support, while resistance sits at $101.22 and $101.79 respectively.

The RSI is at approximately 53, above the midpoint, and is showing a decrease in bullish momentum, but the uptrend is still there. As long as we observe DXY above $100.59, we can expect another attempt to reach $101.22, but if that fails, we may see $99.85.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Can the Rising Channel Extend the Rally Above $1.3450? GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3405 and stays well within the confines of a rising channel on the 4 hour time frame. Price is above both the 50 EMA at 1.3370 and the 100 EMA at 1.3340 indicates that traders are still dominating the buying side of the market. Recent rejections of the 1.3400 support level have resulted in the formation of higher lows along the rising channel line. The most immediate resistance is found at 1.3453, while 1.3508 is a secondary resistance level.

The most significant support level is at 1.3342. The RSI is at 56 and indicates a bullish market, while the RSI is not at the overbought zone. Based on this market analysis I will be looking for buying opportunities above the 1.3400 level, the target being 1.3453 and with a break below the 1.3342 level the buy side market structure will be broken and this will be an indication of potential reversal in the market.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Symmetrical Triangle Trigger the Next Breakout? EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is priced at 1.1423 and is forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-H chart. The price is around the 50 EMA at 1.1420 but is below the 100 EMA at 1.1435. This shows that buyers and sellers have not taken control of the market. The latest candlesticks show small bodies and long wicks suggesting indecision as the triangle’s apex is approached.

The first nearby resistance is at 1.1461, and the first nearby support is at 1.1412, then 1.1379. The RSI is at 51 and shows no market pressure, which supports consolidation. Given this analysis, I would prefer to see a confirmed breakout beyond 1.1461 with targets set at 1.1493. However, if the price closed below 1.1412, the target would be 1.1379.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1462 after weaker United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) before retreating to 1.1419. Near term, they see the Euro confined to a 1.1390–1.1455 band, with broader 1-3 weeks expectations of range-trading between 1.1390 and 1.1475. A key medium-term focus is whether the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone holds, as a break would target 1.1210.

Euro-Dollar seen locked in ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: While we highlighted yesterday that “there is a chance for EUR to drop below 1.1360,” we indicated that “a continued drop below this level appears unlikely.” However, EUR only retested the previous day’s low of 1.1377 (low was 1.1376). During the NY session, EUR briefly spiked to a high of 1.1462, retreating quickly to close at 1.1419 (+0.33%). The brief rise did not result in any significant increase in momentum. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1455."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have expected EUR to trade in a 1.1360/1.1450 range since last week. After EUR dropped to a low of 1.1377 two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 1.1385): “The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline. EUR must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1360 will remain intact as long as EUR holds below 1.1445.” EUR subsequently broke above 1.1445 as it briefly rose to 1.1462. The mild downward momentum has eased, and EUR has likely reverted into a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1475."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/USD trades higher near 1.1420 on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. The Euro’s recovery remains mainly driven by broad Greenback selling rather than Eurozone developments.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% MoM in June, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decrease and May’s 0.5% increase. Annual inflation slowed sharply to 3.5% from 4.2%, below the 3.8% market forecast. Core CPI remained unchanged on the month, while the annual underlying rate eased to 2.6% from 2.9%.

US employment indicators also softened, with the ADP Employment Change four-week average declining to 19.75K from 21K. The figures reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate increase in July, placing additional pressure on the US Dollar.

However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a relatively hawkish tone during his congressional testimony, reiterating the central bank’s commitment to controlling persistent inflation. Warsh also described the US labor market as broadly stable, highlighting low unemployment, limited layoffs and solid nominal wage growth.

Geopolitical developments remain in focus after US President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a full blockade, but only on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports. Trump also abandoned the proposed 20% US reimbursement fee for cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with trade and investment agreements involving Gulf states.

Short-term technical analysis:In the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1423, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1418 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1408. The clustering of these averages just beneath spot suggests underlying demand on shallow dips, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52.7 leans slightly positive without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier at 1.1434, followed by a stronger cap at 1.1446. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 1.1418, ahead of the nearby horizontal floor at 1.1416. A deeper pullback would expose the 100-period SMA at 1.1408 and the lower horizontal level at 1.1404 as the next key demand areas.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

As the trading week begins, the euro is once again showing a short-term bullish bias after the release of inflation data in the United States, which has helped ease strength around the U.S. dollar.

For now, EUR/USD is up more than 0.6% during the session and continues to trade above the 1.1400 level. This buying pressure is partly due to the fact that the new inflation data has triggered corrections in the U.S. bond market, a dynamic that does not favor the dollar.

If this behavior continues, relevant buying pressure could remain present in EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.

U.S. CPI day arrives During the session, CPI data in the United States was released. Although an annual reading was expected, the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.5%.

This figure marks an important change in the U.S. price dynamic, as it represents one of the most relevant declines of the year. In addition, June inflation moved away from the annual high of 4.2% and broke the upward trend that had been present in annual inflation levels since March.

With this result, inflation is once again moving somewhat closer to the central bank’s annual 2.00% target.

Source: TradingEconomics

This event is relevant for Federal Reserve expectations, as a consistent slowdown in inflation could prevent the view of a fully aggressive central bank from materializing over the coming months.

As inflation declines, the need to keep interest rates higher for a prolonged period also decreases. This perspective has started to be reflected in the 10-year U.S. bond market, where yields have shown some correction amid lower expectations of central bank aggressiveness.

After the upward trend seen last week, yields have started to move back below the 4.6% area, showing relevant weakness that had not been observed in recent sessions.

Source: TradingEconomics

The key point is that, as bond yields show weakness, the relative appeal of these fixed-income instruments compared to other markets may also decline. This could reduce the need to maintain consistent demand for dollars in order to access these types of assets.

This decline in bond yields coincides with weaker demand for U.S. dollars. This behavior is reflected in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. The index is now showing a relevant decline and is approaching the 100-point reference area. This indicates that demand for dollars has started to weaken in the short term.

Source: TradingEconomics

With all of this in mind, the dynamic has been favorable for the euro. The release of the inflation data created renewed weakness in dollar demand, which could be allowing the euro to recover ground in the short term.

If the U.S. bond market fails to show attractive growth in yields, the dollar could continue to lose ground. In that scenario, EUR/USD could maintain relevant buying pressure over the next few trading sessions.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Recent recovery becomes relevant: Although a long bearish trend line has been present for months in average EUR/USD movements, the recent price recovery has started to weaken the long-term selling bias. This move could be opening room for a more neutral phase on the chart. Even though the bearish trend line has not yet been broken, price could start to stop forming new lows and enter a more consistent range. If this effect continues over the next few sessions and selling pressure fails to stabilize again, the continuation of the bearish trend line on the daily chart could start to come under pressure.
  RSI: Now, the RSI has moved back toward the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market. Rather than pointing to a clear directional move, the indicator highlights a possible phase of indecision that could remain relevant over the next few sessions.
  MACD: A similar dynamic can be seen in the MACD, whose histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 level. This suggests balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages. This reading may also reflect relevant neutrality in short-term price movements.
  Key levels:

1.15127 – Relevant resistance: This important high level coincides with a retracement area from previous weeks and also with the barrier formed by the 50-period moving average. Price movements attempting to break above this level could start to put the long bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
  1.14253 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to the most relevant neutral area now. Price movements too close to this level could continue to highlight significant indecision and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
  1.12851 – Definitive support: This level is associated with a neutral area observed in May 2025 and now acts as the main support to watch. If price continues to move closer to this area, the selling bias would be reinforced and the possibility of an extension of the bearish trend line as the dominant chart structure over the coming weeks would increase.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

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HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 14.07.2026

EURUSD (The euro) sees limited pullback

EURUSD (The euro) continues to retreat after failing to break back above the recent high, which saw prices push towards a fresh peak.

The pair bounced off the support zone at 1.1380 as the RSI bounced away from the oversold region. Further resistance at the 1.1460 region would send the euro lower, breaking the previous support zone. A successful bounce and a close below 1.1380 would commit more sellers and push the pair towards 1.1300.

NZDUSD tests key resistance area

The New Zealand dollar attempts to continue its progression as the pair jumps over 100 pips in recent sessions.

The price was moving towards the previous swing high at 0.5800, which, if broken, opens another 50-pip jump. Still, the recent bounce could be a sign of bearish pressure building since the market open. A decisive break below 0.5700 would force the remaining buyers out and open the door to a test at the previous swing low of 0.5660. US30 recapturing the recent high

The Dow steadies as traders await more news of a jump in tech stocks, and then the next step in the Middle Eastern conflcit.

A close above the daily resistance of 53000 would help bulls regain control of the direction. A confirmation past this level would lead to the index gearing up for another attempt at a record high above 53400. The recent dip at 52200 is the first support, and 51600 is the bulls’ second layer of defence. Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.

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EURUSD maintains an incomplete bearish sequence from the January 27, 2026 peak, leaving room for further downside. The projected target zone is defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high, which falls between 1.076 and 1.117. This extension range provides a precise technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower. In the near term, the cycle from the July 2, 2026 high has unfolded into a five‑swing decline, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling additional weakness.

From the July 2 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 1.139 as a diagonal structure. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 1.146, after which the pair resumed its downward trajectory in wave ((iii)). The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as another five‑wave impulse. Within this structure, wave (i) ended at 1.138, while wave (ii) retraced to 1.145. These developments confirm that the decline remains active and incomplete. As long as the pivot at 1.147 holds, rally should fail in 3 or 7 swing and EURUSD is expected to continue pressing lower. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.

EURUSD 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Video: You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.

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Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD was mostly flat as traders focused on the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY climbed towards the 162.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally

DXY 130726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on geopolitical developments. President Trump said that U.S. will impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports. He added that U.S. will become a “guardian” in the Strait of Hormuz and would charge fees at a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.

EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed

EUR/USD 130726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. Brent oil gained 5% as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would drop after U.S. decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran. Most likely, Iran will try to attack vessels passing through the Strait without the country’s permission.

EUR/USD failed to settle above the resistance at 1.1420 – 1.1435 and pulled back towards the 1.1400 level. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1400 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Pulls Back Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions GBP/USD 130726 4h Chart GBP/USD moved lower as traders worried that rising oil prices will force the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for the American currency.

In case GBP/USD declines below the 50 MA at 1.3366, it will get to the test of the support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A move below the 1.3335 level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Remains Stuck Near Support At 1.4125 – 1.4140 USD/CAD 130726 4h Chart USD/CAD continued its attempts to settle below the support at 1.4125 – 1.4140 despite the strong pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the psychologically important $4000 level, while silver pulled back below $58.00. Other commodity-related currencies were mixed in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles below the 1.4125 level, it will move towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. On the upside, USD/CAD needs to stay above the 1.4140 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4185. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise

USD/JPY 130726 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.60%.

If USD/JPY stays above the support level at 161.50 – 162.00, it will move towards recent highs near the 162.80 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 162.80, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan is ready to provide support to the Japanese yen.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

EUR/USD trades with a mild positive bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) gives back its earlier gains. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1424 after recovering from an intraday low of 1.1384.

The Greenback opened the week higher after the United States (US) and Iran exchanged missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Washington struck targets in southern Iran, while Tehran targeted US military facilities across the Gulf. Iran also claimed that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, US President Donald Trump said the United States would be the “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and added, “We had a deal, and they broke it.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slips back below 101.00 after touching an intraday high of 101.22.

The US Dollar has failed to benefit from the latest hostilities as markets see little chance of the fighting turning into a full-blown war, while diplomatic efforts continue.

However, the US Dollar’s downside appears limited, as the situation remains fluid and energy-driven inflation concerns return to the forefront. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is up more than 3% on Monday, trading around $74.00 per barrel.

ING analysts noted, “With energy prices turning bid again and no signs of an imminent slowdown in US activity to take the sting out of higher prices, (keeping Fed tightening prospects alive), the Dollar should hold onto its gains.” They added that the Greenback is likely to remain favoured against low-yielding energy importers such as the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

Traders are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike by year-end, while also expecting another rate increase from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday and the Eurozone’s final inflation figures on Friday will be closely watched for fresh clues about the monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Atlantic.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.09%0.29%-0.10%0.19%-0.29%0.17%EUR0.08%0.17%0.35%-0.03%0.28%-0.16%0.26%GBP-0.09%-0.17%0.22%-0.20%0.12%-0.32%0.14%JPY-0.29%-0.35%-0.22%-0.41%-0.11%-0.55%-0.07%CAD0.10%0.03%0.20%0.41%0.31%-0.12%0.34%AUD-0.19%-0.28%-0.12%0.11%-0.31%-0.40%0.06%NZD0.29%0.16%0.32%0.55%0.12%0.40%0.47%CHF-0.17%-0.26%-0.14%0.07%-0.34%-0.06%-0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD gains ground after posting losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1440 during the European hours on Monday. The currency pair holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA, keeping the near-term tone cautiously bearish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that rebounds lack strong momentum even as price stabilizes slightly off recent lows. The daily chart technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair is remaining slightly above the descending channel pattern, suggesting that while a bearish bias persists, immediate downside momentum is pausing as buyers defend the channel's upper boundary.

A successful break below the nine-day EMA of 1.1425 could pull EUR/USD back toward the descending channel and target the 13-month low of 1.1322, which was recorded on June 24. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the area around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 1.1060.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the three-week high of 1.1472, reached on July 2, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.1521.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%0.07%0.23%-0.10%0.19%-0.33%-0.02%EUR0.15%0.22%0.39%0.05%0.35%-0.14%0.15%GBP-0.07%-0.22%0.17%-0.17%0.15%-0.34%-0.04%JPY-0.23%-0.39%-0.17%-0.34%-0.04%-0.52%-0.20%CAD0.10%-0.05%0.17%0.34%0.31%-0.16%0.14%AUD-0.19%-0.35%-0.15%0.04%-0.31%-0.45%-0.14%NZD0.33%0.14%0.34%0.52%0.16%0.45%0.31%CHF0.02%-0.15%0.04%0.20%-0.14%0.14%-0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).