Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Summary:

EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in more than six weeks after breaking above 1.1500. Softer expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to pressure the US dollar. Traders now await ISM manufacturing data before shifting attention to Friday's US payrolls report. The euro began the week on a stronger footing, extending last week’s rally as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continued to support the common currency. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1500, reaching its highest level since mid-June after investors scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to resume raising interest rates this year.

Last week’s Fed meeting marked a turning point for the dollar. Although policymakers left interest rates unchanged, markets were unconvinced that officials are prepared to deliver another hike unless inflation accelerates significantly. Treasury yields retreated after the meeting, dragging the greenback lower across major currency pairs and allowing the euro to recover sharply from July’s lows.

At the same time, geopolitical concerns eased after reports that the United States postponed further military action against Iran. The decline in oil prices that followed helped reduce immediate inflation concerns, removing one of the main factors that had recently supported the US dollar.

US economic data now becomes the next catalyst for EUR/USD With the Federal Reserve now temporarily out of the spotlight, investors are turning their attention to incoming economic data for fresh clues on the direction of US monetary policy.

Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI will offer an early indication of how the US industrial sector performed in July after recent signs that business activity has begun to stabilize. Markets will also monitor the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for confirmation of broader economic momentum.

However, attention is already shifting toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important release. A resilient labour market could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy later this year, while weaker employment growth would strengthen the view that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle.

That makes this week’s data particularly important for EUR/USD after last week’s breakout.

Euro buyers regain technical control The technical picture has improved considerably over the past several sessions.

After establishing support around 1.1350, EUR/USD has produced a strong impulsive recovery, breaking through the psychological 1.1500 level while also clearing the descending trendline that had capped prices since June.

The rally has been accompanied by a move back above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the argument that medium-term bullish momentum is returning. Price is now consolidating just below 1.1560, suggesting buyers are pausing after a rapid advance rather than showing signs of exhaustion.

A sustained move above 1.1558 would expose the June high near 1.1620, while a successful break there could encourage a broader recovery toward 1.1650.

Bullish Outlook The outlook remains positive while EUR/USD holds above 1.1480. Continued weakness in the US dollar and softer Treasury yields could allow buyers to challenge 1.1558, with 1.1620 becoming the next major upside objective.

Bearish Outlook Failure to hold above 1.1480 would increase the risk of profit-taking after last week’s rally. A decisive break below 1.1430 could expose 1.1350, signalling that the recent recovery was only corrective rather than the beginning of a broader trend reversal.

On the downside, the first layer of support sits near 1.1480, followed by 1.1455, which represents the midpoint of the latest advance. A move below 1.1430 would weaken the current bullish structure and suggest that sellers are regaining control.

EUR/USD Outlook The near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive after last week’s decisive break above the 1.1500 psychological level shifted momentum back in favour of buyers. However, the pair is entering a data-heavy week that could determine whether the rally has enough strength to extend toward the June highs. Traders will closely monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Softer-than-expected US data could reinforce dollar weakness and lift EUR/USD toward 1.1620, while stronger economic readings may trigger a pullback as investors revive expectations of tighter US monetary policy. For now, the broader bias remains bullish as long as the pair holds above key support around 1.1480.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495. On a 1–3 week view, he sees potential for a test of 1.1565 and possibly 1.1600, while a break below 1.1455 would undermine the bullish scenario.

Upside bias toward 1.1565–1.1600"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply to close unchanged at 1.1527. EUR could continue to rebound today but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance. To keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After dropping to a low of 1.1353 early last week, EUR soared and ended the week 1.41% higher at 1.1527. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600. On the downside, a breach of 1.1455 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to break above 1.1565."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US President Donald Trump had called off an attack on Iran and talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. 

Traders brace for the German Retail Sales data for June, which is due later on Monday. If the reports come in weaker than expected, this could drag the shared currency lower. On the US docket, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be published. 

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1533. The pair remains capped in the near term as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1569, keeping the broader tone heavy despite the latest bounce. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.5 shows firm positive momentum, but with price still under the key trend average, this strength merely hints at a corrective rebound within a broader bearish backdrop.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1529, with the 20-day SMA middle band at 1.1430 and the lower band near 1.1331 marking deeper cushions if selling resumes. On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward higher levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Analysts at Scotiabank note that the Euro received “a modest lift” earlier in the session after French CPI data “came in well above expectations,” but stress that the support quickly faded as “the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold.” They add that “comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so,” leaving the currency largely to trade on prevailing macro drivers rather than fresh policy signals.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Joint intervention distorts dollar's strongest macro relationships EUR/USD tests January downtrend amid intervention threat Euro area data surprises strongest since early 2023 July payrolls to decide if dollar weakness persists EUR/USD is testing long-running downtrend resistance in early Asian trade on Monday, reacting to an artificial, and potentially temporary, slide in the dollar late last week. Rather than the economic calendar or technicals, it's likely the Japanese yen that determines whether resistance holds or snaps, with the threat of further joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities likely to dominate proceedings.

Yen intervention remains the dominant FX driver Markets widely expect Japan to announce on Monday that it coordinated with the US to support the yen last week, marking the first joint intervention by the two nations in decades. But the bigger question is whether authorities have finished.

As outlined in our USD/JPY week ahead report released over the weekend, prior intervention episodes suggest there's a strong chance of further action should yen weakness re-emerge. With USD/JPY already rebounding from the earlier session lows, the risk of additional intervention cannot be overlooked on Monday.

That points to further artificial downside in the dollar, driven by factors other than fundamental market forces. Should the intervention episode continue, it would likely provide another tailwind for EUR/USD, increasing the risk the recent rebound extends further.

However, whether that weakness lasts beyond the short term is another matter entirely. A heavy slate of US economic data, including Friday's non-farm payrolls report, will likely determine whether the move can grow into something more sustainable.

Traditional dollar relationships weaken

Source: TradingView

Assessing whether dollar weakness can be sustained is more difficult because some of this year's strongest relationships have weakened sharply over the past week. Over the past month, the US Dollar Index has continued to display a reasonably strong relationship with the Fed funds futures curve, reflecting market expectations for Fed rate hikes between June this year and June next year, along with US two-year Treasury yields, with 20-day correlation coefficients of 0.62 and 0.65 respectively.

However, over the past five sessions those relationships have deteriorated sharply. The correlation with the Fed funds futures curve has fallen to just 0.29, while the relationship with US two-year Treasury yields has weakened to only 0.14. Correlations with other drivers, including energy prices, have also deteriorated over the same period.

While month-end flows may explain part of the shift, the intervention episode unfolding in Japan also appears to be distorting the broader market message. What has driven the dollar for much of this year isn't necessarily what's driving it right now.

Euro data turns a corner

Source: LSEG Workstation

While intervention may be helping propel EUR/USD higher in the short term, it's not the only factor at work. Euro area economic data has staged a remarkable turnaround in recent months, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether data is beating or missing economists' forecasts, rebounding sharply from the lows seen during the early stages of the Iran conflict.

The recovery has been nothing short of V-shaped. Having languished in deeply negative territory in April, the index has surged to its highest level since early 2023, pointing to a growing prevalence of upside surprises across the euro area. Friday's inflation report only reinforced that trend, with both headline and underlying inflation accelerating, strengthening the case for another ECB rate hike.

By contrast, while the US economy continues to outperform, it is finding it harder to deliver upside surprises relative to elevated market expectations. That suggests EUR/USD's rebound is not solely a by-product of intervention-driven dollar weakness, with improving relative fundamentals also helping underpin the move.

The calendar takes a back seat

Source: TradingView

Speculation surrounding further intervention, along with the associated flows through the Japanese yen, are likely to remain the dominant influence on EUR/USD during Monday's session. As a result, the economic calendar may struggle to generate sustained moves unless it delivers a surprise.

Of the scheduled releases, US ISM services PMI looks the most likely candidate to spark a fundamentally driven move, although even that may be giving it too much credit in the current environment. The US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement will also attract attention, but it's typically Wednesday's release detailing the composition of debt issuance that has the greater market impact.

The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey rounds out the calendar. While it has influenced markets before, it's a backward-looking report and, against this unique backdrop, its ability to generate meaningful volatility looks extremely limited.

Trendline showdown

Source: TradingView

Looking at EUR/USD on the daily timeframe, the technical stakes today are high with the pair now trading through downtrend resistance that's been in place since the highs set in late January.

The descending triangle structure that had contained price action last week was shattered following the Fed decision last Wednesday, delivering a breakout that saw EUR/USD push not only through former resistance at 1.1480, but also the 50-day simple moving average, extending the move into a test of the long-running downtrend. That becomes the key level to watch today, along with the 100-day simple moving average sitting marginally above at 1.1569.

A clean break and close above the trendline would strengthen the view that a trend change may be taking place, opening the door towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025 to January 2026 bull move at 1.1633, which also coincides with the 200-day simple moving average. Beyond that, 1.1670 is the next level to watch, with a break above opening the door towards 1.1800 and 1.1850.

On the downside, should the downtrend continue to cap gains, a reversal back towards the confluence of the 50-day simple moving average and former resistance at 1.1480 may be on the cards. A break beneath that would open the door for a retest of the support zone comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025 to January 2026 bull move, horizontal support at 1.1364, and the June 24 swing low at 1.1325.

The oscillators continue to favour further upside. RSI (14) continues to push above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory at 64, while MACD has confirmed the bullish signal with a crossover above the signal line and a move back into positive territory. However, that message comes with the caveat that artificial factors have played a significant role in the latest bout of euro strength.

Danske Bank says EUR/USD’s break above 1.1500 has challenged its bullish Dollar view, with further declines in US real yields likely to place its short-Euro position under increasing pressure. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.1530 after the post-Federal Reserve Dollar selloff carried the pair decisively above 1.1500.

EUR/USD gained just over 1% during July, recovering from a monthly low near 1.1354 and reaching a high around 1.1547. The pair remains 1.7% lower since the start of 2026, having traded between January’s peak at 1.2075 and a June low of 1.1325.

Image: Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate chart - 3 month timeframe Danske Bank said “modestly stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP and July flash inflation data from the largest euro area economies supported EUR”, but stressed that domestic European data were not the main reason for the move.

Instead, the bank said “the main driver behind EUR/USD rising above 1.15 has been the post-FOMC decline in US real rates.”

Nominal US yields fell following the Federal Reserve meeting, while medium and longer-term inflation expectations moved higher. According to Danske, this reflected markets reassessing “Kevin Warsh’s commitment to bringing inflation back to target”.

That combination lowered inflation-adjusted US yields and weakened one of the central supports for the Dollar.

The effect was not confined to the Euro. Danske noted that “the same effect could be seen across other risk-sensitive currencies as well”, with easier financial conditions supporting the Swedish Krona, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

For the bank, the market reaction directly challenges its recent positioning.

“The shift does challenge our recent USD-positive narrative,” Danske said, adding that this view had been “underpinned by expectation of the Fed remaining on a firm tightening bias.”

The bank is not abandoning the prospect of further US rate increases. It said: “We still think the macro case for the Fed hiking rates is very much alive.”

That remains the foundation of its medium-term case for renewed Dollar strength. Sticky inflation, resilient activity and the risk that the Fed ultimately tightens more than markets now expect could restore support to US yields.

The immediate risk, however, has moved in the opposite direction.

Image: EUR/USD chart - performance so far in 2026 Danske conceded that “tactically, further decline in US real rates would certainly put our recent short EUR/USD recommendation under even more pressure.”

The technical backdrop has improved alongside the change in rates. EUR/USD has moved above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages after spending much of July below them.

A sustained hold above 1.1500 would leave the recovery intact and bring the 1.1600-1.1665 region back into focus. The latter marked the upper part of June’s trading range before the Euro’s slide towards 1.1325.

The broader three-month trend remains less convincing. EUR/USD is still below May’s highs near 1.1800 and has fallen around 1.7% over that period.

Danske’s forecast therefore hinges on whether the post-Fed fall in real yields persists. A further decline would reinforce the Euro’s breakout and threaten the bank’s short position, while a recovery in real rates and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve tightening could pull EUR/USD back towards 1.1400.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

US Dollar Talking Points: Coming into this week there was a one-in-three chance for a rate hike at the Fed, which sounded peculiar to me as many were calling for bullish breakouts in the USD. As looked at in the webinar on Tuesday, it was the USD/JPY backdrop that mattered most and the pair reversed aggressively as allegations of US and Japanese coordination drove prices lower.

Market hopes for a rate hike from the Fed were dashed but it’s the response to that which is defining the week, at this point.

The initial pullback in USD/JPY was bid as buyers jumped in at the support I looked at in the post-Fed article. But then on Thursday night, right around the European open, selling began to show in USD/JPY. That move looks like it was intervention from Japan and reports circulating on Thursday appeared to echo that. But perhaps the larger move was in the pair around the cash equity open as USD/JPY slid aggressively around 9:30 AM and that led to circulating rumors that the New York Fed performed another ‘rate check,’ calling member banks like what happened back in January.

While the NY Fed has access to rates the act of actual calling banks can be seen as a possible precursor to an intervention. And that (allegedly) was ramped up on Friday morning as the circulating rumor was that the New York Fed was calling banks to warn that there might be action later in the day. This brought another wave of weakness as the bounce in USD/JPY was eviscerated, and the pair returned back-below the 160.00 level.

For next week this is the big theme, whether we see more profit taking and risk aversion from longs as it seems as though both sides of the pair have interested parties trying to talk the price lower.

In USD/JPY, it’s the 155 area that’s of interest for a deeper pullback or sell-off, as this was the resistance that showed after the breakout from the Takaichi election last year.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD Despite the chaotic second half of the week the DXY basket held well with the levels looked at on Tuesday. With a couple hours until the weekly close price is testing below the 100-level in DXY but the 100.36-100.44 zone came in as lower-high resistance, and for next week, that combined with 100.65 and 100.86-101 serve as resistance for bearish continuation scenarios.

US Dollar Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD The Euro is a whopping 57.6% of the DXY basket, but when we consider how long and built-in that carry trade is in USD/JPY, it makes sense as to why flows there could impact the larger major market of the Euro.

That was on display this week as EUR/USD broke out of a falling wedge around the Fed, and then ran up to above the 1.1500 level as USD broke down with the USD/JPY move.

For next week, 1.1500 is now a level for bulls to defend, with 1.1469 below that and then 1.1436.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The EUR/USD pair closes July with modest gains near the 1.1500 mark, adding over 1.1% in the last trading week. Price action throughout the month was dull to say the least as investors remained clueless, although the pair managed to hit 1.1530 ahead of the close. The lack of action was compounded by persistent uncertainty, centered on developments in the Middle East and the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed ) monetary policy path.

Regarding the first, an escalation of the US-Iran war spurred US Dollar (USD) demand at the beginning of the week after continued tit-for-tat attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, which, by the way, is once again closed. Mood improved early in the week amid a pause in attacks and headlines suggesting a fresh round of negotiations.

Renewed war headlines, however, were quickly overshadowed by the US Fed monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The USD plunged after the central bank decided to leave the benchmark rate unchanged, with the split vote leaving it at a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional bank presidents dissented, preferring an immediate 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike: Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas's Lorie Logan.

Chairman Kevin Warsh chickens outThe USD collapsed following the Fed’s decision as investors believed Chair Warsh had chickened out. He kept repeating his commitment to curb inflation and to price stability, but the Fed left rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.

Of course, he did not provide clear guidance on the future path of monetary policy, not actually a surprise. And he failed to specify how he intends to resolve five-year-long inflationary pressure despite affirming that there is no “soft” inflation target.

“We are on the job, we will deliver, we are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it, but the suggestion that we're going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to disabuse you and everyone else of,” Warsh said.

Market players did not take well to the myriad empty words and the lack of action. However, bets on a September rate hike have increased after the dust settled. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a hike increased to 65% from 55% one week before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement.

Still, there’s a long way ahead of September, and loads could happen in the way. The focus will remain on data — inflation and employment figures — and Middle East developments.

Meanwhile, the US published the preliminary estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing expectations and below the Q1 reading of 2.1%. Other details of the report showed that the GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% in Q2 from 3.6% in Q1, while the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, increased 3.3% on a yearly basis, matching the market expectation. In June, the core PCE Price Index ticked lower on a yearly basis, to 3.3% from 3.4% in May, still far above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Middle East crisis here to stayUS President Donald Trump said for the umpteenth time on Friday that the war is “going well” and that the US “keeps winning.” No strikes between Washington and Tehran were reported by the end of the week, a short truce that at least was enough to contain fears. Still, unrest leads the region as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined to the levels seen before the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), while Kuwait and Egypt reported Iranian attacks early Friday.

On a positive note, US President Trump announced an historic agreement to secure the disarmament of Hamas, while a senior Hamas official confirmed it to CNN, contingent on Israel upholding its obligations. This is the first time Hamas has agreed to a specific plan to hand over weapons.

The song remains the same: the US demands Iran drops its nuclear program, while Iran requests full control of the critical sea passage. Neither side is willing to give up on those terms.

Euro finds support in dataData coming from Europe provided support to the Euro: Germany and the Eurozone (EU) released the preliminary estimates of the Q2 GDP. Annualized growth in Germany rose 0.9%, modest yet better than the 0.4% posted in Q1. The EU figure printed at 1%, up from the previous 0.3%.

German inflation met expectations as the preliminary estimate of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices printed at 2.8% YoY, higher than the 2.4% from June. The EU HICP in the same period resulted in 2.5%, in line with expectations and slightly above the previous 2.4%.

Still, financial markets price in roughly a 65% probability that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 25 bps rate hike at the September meeting. Again, too early to speculate about that.

Regardless, European data was encouraging enough to spook concerns, which ended up helping the Euro on its way north. It should not be a surprise, however, if the Greenback resumes its rally on the back of war-related fears.

What’s next in the docketThe first week of August will be a busy one. Germany will kick-start macroeconomic releases by publishing June Retail Sales, while the US will publish the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday. The ISM Services PMI will be out on Wednesday, while EU June Retail Sales are scheduled for Thursday.

S&P Global, alongside local banks, will release the final estimates of the July PMIs for major economies throughout the week.

Midweek, the focus will turn to employment as the US releases June JOLTS Job Openings, the July ADP Employment Change report, and July Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. The US is expected to have added 91K new jobs in the month, up from the 57K added in June, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.3%, up from the 4.2% posted in June.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:From a technical perspective, based on the daily chart, EUR/USD has partially recovered its bullish poise. The pair has run past a now mildly bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1430, although it remains below the 100-day and 200-day simple SMAs at 1.1568 and 1.1631, respectively, keeping the broader backdrop bearish despite the latest bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned lower but stands at 58, while the Momentum indicator holds flat above its midline, suggesting that buying interest has improved, though not enough to confirm a trend change.

In the weekly chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias, holding below the 20-week SMA at 1.1565 while still trading above the 100- and 200-week SMAs at 1.1311 and 1.1032, respectively. Technical indicators have rotated higher, but remain below their midlines, reflecting the latest advance yet far from suggesting a bullish extension ahead.

On the topside, initial resistance is at the 100-day SMA near 1.1568, with the 200-day SMA at around 1.1631 as the next significant barrier if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day SMA at 1.1424, where a break would expose a deeper pullback toward the June low at 1.1324.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed credibility questions underpin USD SSA spreads as EUR and GBP seen outperformingAccording to TD Securities, recent price action has seen "US swap spreads have tightened, and the yield curve has steepened," reshaping relative value across rates and credit markets. The bank argues that "questions around the Fed's credibility are supportive for USD SSA G-spreads," and, in this context, it "look[s] for front-end EUR and GBP to outperform vs USD" as investors reassess opportunities along the front end of major curves.

The US dollar continues to fight back, as we are looking to resume some of the previous trends.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EURUSD trades around 1.14856, rebounding from the 1.140 area but staying below its 200-day EMA at 1.15583. Source: TradingView. The euro has pulled back a bit during the trading session here on Friday as we are now testing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA being broken below would open up a move down to the 1.14 level, a large round, psychologically significant figure that has been pretty strong support recently. To the upside, we have the 200-day EMA at the 1.1558 level offering resistance. We will just have to wait and see how that plays out, but a break above there would be very strong.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis USDCAD trades around 1.40487 after easing from the 1.425 high, holding above its 50-day EMA at 1.40338. Source: TradingView. The US dollar is recovering against the Canadian dollar early during trading as the market continues to bounce around the 50-day EMA. Breaking above here could send this market challenging the 1.4150 level. The 1.40 level underneath is a floor in the market, and I think it continues to be a major area of concern. It had previously been significant resistance, so market memory would suggest that perhaps there will be buyers here. Plus, we have the 200-day EMA race towards that area. Interest rate differential still favors the US dollar, so this is part of what is playing out in this market.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF trades around 0.81081, holding above its 50-day EMA at 0.80469 and 200-day EMA at 0.79910. Source: TradingView. The US dollar against the Swiss franc has rallied quite nicely after a couple of rough days. We are now breaking above the 0.81 level, bouncing from the 50-day EMA, adding more possibility of a break higher and the ability to collect swap yet again. Over the longer term, I do think this is a market where the interest rate differential will be the main story. The Swiss National Bank does not want a strong Swiss franc anyway, so momentum suggests that the buyers are still very much in control.

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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Market news from the European morning session - 31 July 2026

Headlines:

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?BOJ governor Ueda says to expect to keep raising interest rates in response to economic, financial conditionsBOJ governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy in a manner so as to not fall behind the curveBOJ leaves rates unchanged as expected. Vote was 8-1ECB's Kocher: Decisions to be based on incoming data to bring inflation back to the 2% targetEuro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECBFrench inflation accelerates in July, reaffirming the broader trend in the regionItaly July preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expectedGerman unemployment rises by slightly more than anticipated in JulySouth Korea's KOSPI extends rebound in closing stages of the week, now up 17% todayMarket update:

USD and AUD lead, CHF lags on the dayWTI crude up 0.7% to $84.20European indices mostly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 4.675%Gold down 1.1% to $4,057Bitcoin down 1.3% to $63,887As we count down to the end of the month, markets are still seeing some volatile swings in ending the week.

The rebound in tech shares continues after South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index posted near 18% gains today. And that's setting a more positive backdrop for broader markets.

European stocks are pushing modestly higher with the DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 0.9%, while US futures are posting solid gains as well in looking to wrap up the week. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with Nasdaq futures up 1.3% currently. No hyperscaler worries this week is also helping to bolster the mood, for now at least.

Besides that, we once again had another taste of Japanese yen volatility with a suspected second round of intervention. USD/JPY recovered well from yesterday's drop to settle above 160.00 today before being shot back down to 158.55 in a jiffy during the session. It was a gradual recovery after but one that is quick to see the pair move back up by 0.3% to 160.05 currently.

At the same time, the dollar is seeing a modest bounce as well with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.1495 and USD/CHF up 0.5% to 0.8095 on the day.

In terms of economic data, we had euro area inflation numbers for July and they were a tad hotter than expected. That will just serve to keep the ECB on their toes ahead of a likely rate hike again in September.

In other markets, oil prices are settling just a little higher with WTI crude up 0.7% to $84.20 and 10-year Treasury yields also just a touch higher by nearly 2 bps to 4.68%. Meanwhile, gold is seen down 1.1% to $4,057 as the back and forth continues for precious metals.

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investingLive European markets wrap: Eurozone inflation ticks up in July; USD/JPY intervention again?How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB's Kocher: Decisions to be based on incoming data to bring inflation back to the 2% targetEuro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECBItaly July preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expectedStealth intervention causes wild swings in USD/JPY; focus stays on Middle East and next US CPIGerman unemployment rises by slightly more than anticipated in JulyGold fails to extend gains as traders await the US CPI and Middle East developments BOJ governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy in a manner so as to not fall behind the curveFrench inflation accelerates in July, reaffirming the broader trend in the region

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1500 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as escalating tensions in the Middle East weigh on riskier assets. 

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the United States (US) will pay the price for killing Iranian civilians, per the Guardian. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that it targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain after US forces bombed a building on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The Iranian military added that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that the “aggressor will be punished.”

Stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany have reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could deliver a second interest rate hike this year, potentially as soon as September. This, in turn, might help limit the shared currency’s losses in the near term. 

Eurozone recovery underpins expectations for September ECB hikeBrown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad underscores that the recent improvement in Eurozone data is strengthening the policy case for further tightening. He notes that “the recovery in Eurozone economic activity and above target inflation reinforces the case for the ECB to resume raising rates in September,” suggesting that the combination of firmer growth and persistent price pressures keeps the central bank on track for another move after its current pause.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains negative outlook under 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD remains capped in the near term, as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and presses against the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting upside attempts are meeting supply. The Bollinger midline underpins the structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 59 hints at improving but not yet overbought momentum within an overall constrained backdrop.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1510, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1570 acting as the next significant barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the broader bearish cap. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the daily mid-Bollinger band near 1.1425, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1340, where a break would likely reinforce downside pressure and reopen the path toward lower lows.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1499 support turned resistance argue that fall from 1.2081 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). Decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1433 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

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Chris Turner at ING writes that EUR/USD bounced modestly after the FOMC but was constrained by higher long-dated US yields and pressure on US growth stocks. ING expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold in September, projecting EUR/USD near 1.17 by end-Q3, while in the near term the pair is seen trading in a 1.14–1.15 range, guided by Eurozone GDP and inflation data.

Fed hold view supports Euro outlook"EUR/USD enjoyed a modest bounce after the Fed press conference, but probably got caught in the crosscurrents."

"The drop in short-dated US real yields was a clear EUR/USD positive, but the sell-off in long-dated US rates and the pressure it put on growth stocks in the S&P 500 probably capped the EUR/USD move. Ultimately, the ING house call is that the Fed does not hike in September and EUR/USD ends the third quarter near 1.17."

"But high energy prices and a strong US economy make that Fed decision in September a very close call. Over the shorter term, we expect EUR/USD probably to trade out a 1.14-1.15 range and take its cue from the data."

"Europe today will see its first look at second quarter GDP prints and also indications of July inflation. Weak growth (the eurozone is expected at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter) probably will not stand in the way of an ECB hike in September, which is more than 90% priced. An uptick in July inflation data today and high oil prices should keep short-dated euro rates supported."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower to near 1.1455 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair corrects slightly after a strong recovery move in the last two trading days, with investors awaiting the German flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July.

According to estimates, the German headline HICP rises at a stronger pace of 2.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 2.4%. On a monthly basis, the headline HICP grows by 0.8% after declining by 0.2% in June.

Signs of hot inflationary pressures would boost European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike expectations. During the day, investors will also focus on the preliminary German and Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

On Wednesday, the major currency pair gained strongly after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, in which it left interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth time in a row. Fed officials warned of upside inflation risks, and said that they are committed to bring it down.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades marginally lower at around 1.1455 at press time. However, the near-term bias of the pair has improved as it looks sustainable above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1422.

There is a Double Bottom formation on the daily chart, which reflects the arrival of bulls in the counter after a long period. Bullish hopes for the pair would strengthen once it decisively breaks above the marked hurdle at 1.1483.

The Relative Strength Index (14) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 range from the 20.00-40.00 zone, which indicates that the downside momentum has cooled off.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period EMA at 1.1422, followed by the July 28 low at 1.1353. On the topside, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 12 low at 1.1557 once it crosses above the 1.1483 hurdle decisively.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

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US Dollar Talking Points: Markets were pricing in approximately a one in three chance for a rate hike today, which did not end up happening. Despite FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh sounding hawkish by repeatedly saying that inflation must come down, the bank made no move to do so at today’s rate decision and, instead, we’re seeing many of the trades aligned with rate cuts coming off quickly. Keep in mind that the larger reaction to a meeting of this nature will often take days to play out, as what we’re seeing now is the initial reaction from rate hike bets and hedges in anticipation of such coming off.

The June rate decision prodded a rally in the Dollar and in response, markets were highly expecting the possibility of a rate hike at today’s July rate decision from the FOMC. As Kevin Warsh has said numerous times, inflation is, and has remained well above the Fed’s 2% target. This was even the case during rate cut campaigns in 2024 and 2025, with Core CPI never dipping below 2% through that time. To be sure, the Fed made other arguments as to why the rate moderation was necessary and we saw a likely reason for that back in March of 2023 as higher rates were starting to cause stress with regional banks in the US.

What the Fed says and what they do, however, aren’t always the same thing, and given how important FOMC messaging has become and how it was a vital tool in the bank’s management of the economy in the post-GFC backdrop, it makes sense as to why they might try to alter matters here.

But – the backdrop that Kevin Warsh is looking for may be a more volatile one, as the forward guidance and preparation for whatever move the Fed was looking to make taught market participants to rest easily on the leanings of the bank. And now they have to fend for themselves based on the incoming data.

As such there was a legitimate build of expectation for a rate hike today, despite the fact that inflation has actually eased of late. If there was an actual hike, I think the repercussions would be massive, as President Trump spent months during the nomination process teasing rate cuts, even going as far as to say a willingness to cut rates was a ‘litmus test’ for whomever he ultimately selected. If Kevin Warsh presided over a rate hike in only his second meeting at the bank, the response from President Trump’s social media accounts would likely be one for the ages, but that’s not a scenario that we need to entertain at this point as markets are even going so far as to price out a possible move in September.

In the US Dollar, I went over this in-depth in yesterday’s webinar. The currency has since broken down on the back of those rate hike bets getting priced out. I have this currently at the bottom of the ‘s2’ support zone and the next big item here is probably something to do with Japan ahead of the BoJ rate meeting, which I’ll touch on in a moment.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD In the webinar yesterday I looked at a falling wedge formation in EUR/USD that opened the door for a pullback. That move is now in place and price has pushed up to the next resistance level, at 1.1469. The big spot overhead is the 1.1500 handle but at this point, I think a topside break above that would probably need a larger move down in USD/JPY as the big picture carry trade still remains a crowded venue.

If the BoJ can successfully frighten markets into thinking they may be taking a more-hawkish turn, there could be excuse for longs to bail and, in turn, stops can get hit to lead to more downside pressure. I think that would be more likely than an intervention threat at this point just given price trajectory, but with the BoJ coming up that can change quickly but suffice to say, I think that EUR/USD could possibly be taking directional pushes from the carry trade in USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY This is the big one and we’ve seen just how impactful moves in USD/JPY can be across the Dollar spectrum. It was just a little over two years ago when an intervention on the morning of a US CPI print sent both USD/JPY and DXY spiraling lower, and it carried US equities down with it.

At this point, I don’t think that Japanese policymakers necessarily mind the spot rate being above the 160 handle but the primary fear is one of losing control to where the currency slides to such a degree that inflation becomes problematic, which would then force their hand and in turn endanger growth. When you’re looking at a population conundrum like Japan is, that’s dangerous, as stalling that growth could become a generational issue so, I think if given the option the Bank of Japan would prefer for spot rates to stay around where they are now.

In USD/JPY, we now have a pullback after the FOMC meeting and price is currently holding at support, the same looked at in yesterday’s webinar.

As long as the fundamental divergence remains in place, and Warsh did nothing to question that today by retaining that hawkish-sounding outlook, there’s a case for bulls to come in to defend support.

That said, this is a crowded trade so if there was a shock of counter-trend stimuli getting priced-in, such a more-hawkish BoJ, that could run some stops and lead to short-term supply. That could then re-open the door for bulls on a bigger picture basis, but the point is the price always at least somewhat efficient given the known facts so there’s really no free lunch here, there’s always risk in the equation.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels EUR/USD has tested both ends of the monthly range, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. The weekly and monthly opening ranges remain intact just above critical support- breakout pending. A topside breach would weaken the multi-month downtrend, while a loss of support would favor another leg lower. The FOMC decision, Core PCE inflation, and Eurozone CPI could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Resistance 1.1422, 1.1483/92 (key), 1.1576/78- Support 1.1355/60 (key), 1.1276, 1.1214 EUR/USD enters the final days of the month with both sides of its monthly range now tested, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical crossroads ahead of today's FOMC rate decision. The broader downtrend remains intact, but the weekly and monthly opening ranges continue to hold just above critical support as traders await a decisive catalyst. With the Fed and key US / Eurozone inflation data on tap into the monthly close, the next breakout could provide important directional guidance heading into August trade. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading within a well-defined monthly opening range, just above support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro rallied in the following days with price registering an intraday high at 1.1483 before reversing. The decline extended more than 1.1% off the highs with price registering an intraday low yesterday at 1.1353. Both sides of the range have now been tested, and the focus is on a breakout into the close of the week / month with the FOMC rate decision on tap later today.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD continuing to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork we have been tracking of May high. The weekly opening range is now set just below the objective monthly open at 1.1422. A topside breach above this threshold is needed to invalidate the multi-week downtrend. Ultimately, a daily / weekly close above the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC) at 1.1483/92 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the May and January lows near 1.1576/78.

A break / daily close below this pivotal support zone would threaten resumption / acceleration of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2023 high at 1.1276 and the 2024 swing high at 1.1214. The next major technical consideration rests with the 100% extension of the January decline at 1.1178.

           

Bottom line: The monthly & weekly opening ranges are preserved just above critical support, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1422 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

The FOMC rate decision is on tap this afternoon and although no change is expected, traders will be parsing Fed Chair Warsh’s comments on inflation considering the recent escalation in the Iran conflict and subsequent surge in oil. Ahead of today’s meeting, Fed funds futures imply a roughly 34% chance of a hike this week and a 75% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by September. Keep in mind we still have key economic data in the days ahead with Core PCE, the Fed’ preferred inflationary gauge, and Eurozone inflation on tap into the close of the week / month. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for directional guidance heading into August. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Scotiabank analysts warn that options markets are pricing greater protection against Euro exchange rate weakness, while ING sees scope for EUR/USD to revisit 1.15 after the Fed. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.1390 on Wednesday, holding within an unusually narrow range as markets waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

EUR/USD was marginally higher on the day after closing at 1.1386 on Tuesday. The pair has spent most of the past week between 1.1350 and 1.1420, with July’s broader range capped by a high near 1.1481 and a low around 1.1354.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.138758 (+0.01%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.329004 (+0.03%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.82941 (-0.02%)

Scotiabank described the Euro as “unchanged vs. the USD” as it consolidated within “an incredibly tight range in the mid/upper-1.13s”.

That calm in spot trading is not being matched in the options market.

Scotiabank flagged a “somewhat worrisome development”, noting that risk reversals were “pushing deeper into negative territory” and approaching their late-June lows.

The move indicates “a growing premium for protection against EUR weakness”, suggesting investors are paying more to hedge against a decline even though the spot rate itself remains stable.

The bank linked that deterioration to the latest positioning data, which showed a weakening speculative backdrop for the Euro. In other words, the surface looks quiet, but traders underneath it are becoming more defensive.

Fundamental support has not disappeared. Scotiabank said ECB rate expectations were steady after their recent pullback, “delivering fundamental support via yield spreads”.

German import prices also showed tentative evidence that the energy-driven surge may be reaching a peak after lifting the annual rate above 6%. The release was not large enough to shift the currency, leaving US developments as the dominant near-term driver.

Image: EUR/USD 48-hour rolling price chart showing an early rise above 1.1400 followed by consolidation around 1.1390 The latest two-day chart above shows EUR/USD briefly climbing from below 1.1380 to around 1.1404 before giving back most of the move.

The pair then settled into an extremely compressed range, repeatedly finding buyers around 1.1383–1.1386 but struggling to maintain advances above 1.1395.

ING takes a more constructive view of what may follow the Fed decision.

The bank argues that precautionary positioning for a surprise US rate increase has helped keep the Dollar supported, but that resilience “will be tested heavily” if the Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected.

Markets were pricing roughly seven basis points of tightening, equivalent to around a 25–30% probability of a hike. A hold should therefore trigger some correction in short-dated US rates and allow investors to unwind defensive Dollar positions.

ING said a Fed hold could allow the Dollar “to reconnect with the signal from lower oil prices”, adding that “unless Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprises with a hawkish spin, or we see more than two dissenters, we think the dollar will come under pressure today”.

For EUR/USD, that creates a potential route higher, although ING is not calling for an immediate breakout.

The bank said there was “a good chance the pair bottomed out last week” if markets retain a broadly constructive view on Middle East de-escalation.

A sustained move above 1.15 still requires “dovish Fed repricing” and a stabilisation in risk sentiment. Weakness in technology and semiconductor shares may cap the Euro even if the Dollar softens.

Near-Term EUR/USD Forecast: Scotiabank Watches 1.1350–1.1450 as ING Eyes a Return Towards 1.15 Scotiabank’s technical view remains “bearish/neutral”.

The relative strength index is showing “signs of a tentative recovery”, but remains below 50 and therefore still carries a bearish bias. The bank places near-term movement between 1.1350 and 1.1450, with the wider June range bounded by support in the low 1.13s and resistance near 1.1480.

ING’s immediate target sits inside that same range. As a baseline response to a modestly dovish Fed surprise, it expects EUR/USD to return to 1.1400–1.1450 over the coming days.

The contrast between the two banks is useful. Scotiabank sees defensive positioning and options demand warning that the Euro remains vulnerable; ING thinks much of the Dollar’s pre-Fed support may unwind once the decision is out.

A break above 1.1450 would strengthen ING’s argument that last week marked the low and bring 1.1480–1.1500 back into focus. A move beneath 1.1350 would validate the caution showing up in options markets and expose the lower part of the June range.

The spot market is quiet. The hedging market is not. Wednesday’s Fed decision should reveal which one has read the risk more accurately.

The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday after finding some support in the mid-range of the 1.1300s earlier this week but remains unable to find acceptance above 1.1400. This leaves the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to further decline below the year-to-date low, at 1.1324, if a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) provides an additional boost to the US Dollar.

The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold, although markets are pricing a 35$ chance of a quarter-point hike later in the day. A surprise tightening move is highly likely to send the US Dollar rallying, but a hawkish pause, the most likely scenario, might also provide support for the USD as it will cement hopes of a September hike.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) council member and Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Patsalides reiterated that higher Oil prices are boosting inflation risks, but he refused to give any hint about September’s monetary policy decision. The Euro showed no reaction to the comments.

Technical Analysis: Consolidating losses amid a bearish trend

EUR/USD trades around 1.1390, wavering in the lower range of July's trading channel and unable to put any significant distance from the 13-month low of 1.1324. Momentum indicators hint at a neutral-to-slightly-capped near-term bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edging marginally above zero, highlighting subdued bullish conviction.

On the topside, above 1.1400, bulls are likely to be challenged at 1.1440 (July 23 highs) ahead of the top of the last six weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area. On the downside, key support is at the mentioned 1.1324 low; further down, the next target is in the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.33%0.00%0.08%0.85%0.44%0.46%EUR-0.09%0.22%-0.09%-0.01%0.77%0.35%0.37%GBP-0.33%-0.22%-0.41%-0.23%0.55%0.13%0.15%JPY0.00%0.09%0.41%0.06%0.84%0.43%0.36%CAD-0.08%0.00%0.23%-0.06%0.74%0.37%0.38%AUD-0.85%-0.77%-0.55%-0.84%-0.74%-0.41%-0.40%NZD-0.44%-0.35%-0.13%-0.43%-0.37%0.41%0.02%CHF-0.46%-0.37%-0.15%-0.36%-0.38%0.40%-0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The dollar’s next move hinges on tonight’s Fed decision, and this time markets genuinely don’t know what to expect. While economists still lean toward a hold—with CME FedWatch odds sitting near 68.5% for no change—Kevin Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric on having “no tolerance” for inflation, paired with growing internal FOMC support for a hike, has pushed hike odds up sharply from just 18% two weeks ago to over 30% today. Complicating things further, Warsh has deliberately scaled back forward guidance, meaning tonight’s press conference may offer fewer clues than usual.

The euro, meanwhile, has already had its say: the ECB held rates steady at 2.25% last Thursday, as expected, with Lagarde reaffirming the 2% target while flagging that energy-driven inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully play out. Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, but sticky services inflation near 3.5–4% keeps the door only cautiously open for a September move in either direction.

With EUR/USD trading near 1.1408, tonight’s Fed decision—not the ECB—is what will likely determine the pair’s next major direction.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

As the EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has been consolidating within a defined range since late June, squeezed between an ascending trendline and a descending trendline, both converging around the current price near 1.1400. The 200-period EMA continues to slope lower above price, reinforcing a cautious backdrop ahead of tonight’s Fed decision.

Bullish Scenario Should the dollar weaken on a dovish Fed outcome, price would need to break above the converging trendlines and reclaim the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 1.1420, with the 200-period EMA just above acting as the next key test. A confirmed break above the EMA would open the path towards the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements near 1.1480–1.1500, where stronger resistance has capped rallies since late June.

Bearish Scenario Conversely, a hawkish surprise—or even a hike—could send the euro sharply lower, breaking both the ascending trendline and the psychological 1.1360 support level. A confirmed break here would expose the 1.1320 zone, the 0.0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the entire recovery move, with further downside risk towards fresh multi-week lows if selling pressure accelerates.

With price coiled right at the intersection of both trendlines and the Fed decision just hours away, EUR/USD looks primed for a decisive move. Will the dollar reassert its dominance, or will the euro finally break free of this range?

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Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to deliver a "hawkish hold", with markets already pricing at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. She highlights that recent declines in energy prices and a softer June inflation print reduce the odds of an immediate hike, limiting upside for the US Dollar and leaving EUR/USD sensitive to any scaling back of Fed tightening expectations.

Hawkish hold risk for Dollar"In all likelihood, this overall situation should lead to a “hawkish hold” this evening. The market expects at least one interest rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year and sees a chance that more could follow next year as well. It does not want to completely rule out an interest rate hike even today, even though it sees only a low probability for this to happen."

"For EUR/USD today, the key question is whether these expectations will be fueled - or not."

"If the market scales back its expectations because the (possibly shorter than usual) FOMC statement or Warsh’s press conference suggests that the Fed views price risks as manageable and, above all, temporary, a correction in the USD is certainly possible."

"After all, it is unlikely that Warsh will adopt an extremely hawkish stance given the recent drop in energy prices and a surprisingly low June inflation rate."

"Consequently, upward pressure on the US dollar driven by rising expectations of interest rate hikes is also unlikely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Dollar Index holds stable ahead of the FOMC tonight. The markets expect rates to remain unchanged with a 30% probability to a surprise rate hike. We continue to look at the near-term range of 100.70-101.50 to hold for now while Euro may trade in the 1.1350-1.1420 region. EURINR trades higher today above 109 but the risk of slipping towards 108.50 or lower remains on the cards. USDJPY remains bullish towards 164.50-165 with immediate stability for a few sessions while EURJPY can extend to 187/188 while above 186. USDCNY may trade within 6.75- 6.7850. Aussie may test 0.69 while Pound may find support near 1.3250 before bouncing towards 1.34. USDINR has tested 95.6250 before closing higher. There is some scope to see 95.50/25 this week before resuming the upmove towards 96 or higher again.

The US Treasury yields trade lower and could continue to decline for the near term before testing respective supports and resuming the uptrend in the longer run. The Fed meeting policy meeting tonight will need close watch where the markets expect the rates to be kept unchanged. The German Yields are also trading lower but could see limited room on the downside as support levels could soon produce a bounce and take the yields up to resume the broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. While below 6.80%, the yield is bearish for a test of 6.70/60% unless immediate reversal is seen. Overall near term view looks bearish.

Dow needs a sustained break above 53000 to extend its rally towards 53500-54000; otherwise, it is likely to remain within the 52000-53000 range. DAX also requires a sustained break above 25500 to rise towards 26000, failing which it could decline towards 25000-24800. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to move higher towards 24100-24150. Nikkei remains bearish and can decline further towards 60000 or lower. Shanghai also continues to trade with a weak bias and can fall towards 3750-3700 while below 3900.

Crude prices can trade in a broad range amid continued uncertainty over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold can continue to trade within the broad $4000-$4200 range, while Silver is expected to remain range-bound between $55 and $65. Copper remains constructive above $6.30 and can rise towards $6.50. Natural Gas has turned weaker after breaking below $2.70 and can decline further towards $2.65.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

US Dollar Talking Points: The US Dollar retains a bullish look but the big question here is whether the rate hike odds that have priced in remain after tomorrow’s Fed meeting. While newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking a hawkish approach makes sense up to this point the bigger question is whether he’ll push the envelope with stocks showing relative weakness, which would also possibly expose President Trump’s choice in the nomination process.

It’s one of those weeks where the range of possible outcomes is far and wide. As we go into tomorrow’s Fed meeting there’s a peculiar degree of indecision, as there’s an approximate 30% probability of rates being hiked tomorrow.

To this point, the Fed has often used messaging and media interviews to telegraph their actions to avoid unsettling market participants and, in turn, inviting volatility. But that’s not the case for tomorrow and this gives some potential for price movements.

CME Fedwatch Rate Probabilities for July FOMC Data taken from CME Fedwatch Going out to the end of the year shows a near 90% chance of at least one rate hike, with a 50% chance of at least two rate hikes.

If this were to happen, it would make President Trump’s choice to lead the Fed appear as through he’s directly refuting the President’s desire for rate cuts, especially considering this is into the lead-in to the US election in November.

This also helps to give some context to the US Dollar move of strength, as it was the last Fed meeting, on June 17th, where the USD broke out and ran to its current high. This also sets a very high bar for continued USD strength as not only will Warsh need to sound very hawkish tomorrow, but he’ll have to sound concerned that inflation isn’t going in the right direction which would lead to expectation for even more hawkishness down the road.

CME Fedwatch Rate Probabilities into End of 2026 Data taken from CME Fedwatch US Dollar – Is That All? The last Fed meeting in June was important as it was a quarterly rate decision, so we got updated guidance and projections, unlike tomorrow’s, which is just an announcement and a press conference. This puts even more emphasis on Kevin Warsh, but when we heard from the bank and the Summary of Economic Projections last month, DXY put in a massive breakout that pushed the USD up to a fresh yearly high, until resistance showed at the Fibonacci level of 101.80.

From there – profit taking showed in an orderly fashion in the form of a bull flag, and that led to the reaction from two weeks ago when below-expected CPI and PPI prints provided a dip with which buyers could react. I looked into those in the webinar at the time and bulls reacted in a big way, sparking a bullish trend that lasted for the next week and change.

More recently, however, the move has stalled ahead of that 101.80 level and given how aggressively rate hikes have priced-in as seen from the above two tables, it would seem the Fed would really have to shock the market to continue this rally in the Dollar.

Also notable – and addressed below – is the US Dollar from the perspective of counterparts and what could lead to a reliably stable trend in the DXY basket.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD Structure At this point a simple move of less-hawkishness can help to inspire a pullback and I think from Warsh’s perspective that would probably be the optimal outcome, especially considering the matter in USD/JPY and what could possibly happen to Treasury rates on the long-end of the curve if markets become unsettled.

As looked at coming into this week, there’s short-term bullish structure to match the long-term backdrop. So far, the ‘s1’ level has held support, but into tomorrow, the ‘s2’ zone is also viable, running from 100.86-100.99, with 100.65 and 100.36-100.44 below that.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY

There’s another ascending triangle in USD/JPY and with rate decisions from both economies this week that can present a dangerous scenario.

As I said in the video I’d be surprised if a visit to 165.00 doesn’t bring some kind of reaction from policymakers, either in the form of an actual intervention or perhaps just a threat of one. The bigger question is whether that’ll work as anything more than a pullback and until the Bank of Japan sounds more concerned about inflation I have a hard time getting too aggressive on reversal scenarios in the pair, particularly with markets so amped up for US rate hikes into the end of this year.

I think this could have an outsized impact on the USD because that carry trade can be truly difficult to gauge in size. JPY is a mere 13.6% allocation of the USD basket but like we saw back in July of 2024, if that massive carry trade begins to unwind the Dollar selling could show in pairs even without the Japanese Yen, such as EUR/USD.

At this point there’s another ascending triangle setting up in USD/JPY and so far bulls haven’t been able to push beyond 164, which I think echoes that expectation of something happening around 165. But if we see Warsh show calm and perhaps Ueda sound a bit more hawkish, we could get a pullback that could allow for trend continuation.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD

The Euro is 57.6% of the DXY basket and despite those high odds for rate hikes in the US later this year, the pair has been rather unmoved of late – even with a wide open door for bears to make a push.

Last week saw a dovish ECB produce a bearish engulf on the daily to break a bear flag. A day later, the pullback saw sellers show up at prior support of 1.1402.

But now, not only is there no fresh low there’s a build of a falling wedge pattern. If we do hear Warsh as less-hawkish tomorrow this could give shorts excuse to pare positions and that could lead to a counter-trend move. Whether that becomes anything more than a pullback could, paradoxically, dial back to the argument around the Japanese Yen. But until there’s a closed body break on the daily above the 1.1500 level this market has a bearish big picture bias.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD When it comes to the Dollar I always try to retain some degree of balance, because, after all, it is a basket of underlying currencies rather than a market traded completely in a vacuum. GBP/USD still retains a bearish look and there’s a BoE rate decision on Thursday morning, less than 24 hours after the Fed.

The 1.3300 level remains a problematic spot but there’s a similar falling wedge that’s developed here, and if Warsh and perhaps even the BoJ can successfully tilt a pullback in the US Dollar and USD/JPY, there may be something to work with in Cable. First – bulls would need to take out 1.3325-1.3343, and then the 1.3390 area would be the next spot for them to encounter. But – at that point we can look for a higher-low and that’s something that could possibly lead-in to reversal scenarios in the pair.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

I am already riding two EURUSD sell entries. Another possible sell opportunity could be forming for traders that are not in yet.EURUSD Possible Bearish ScenarioWatch for price to tap 4 Hour FVG (Purple) first.Watch for a bearish shift and bearish reversal signs in the FVG zone.Wait for all above to play out first then plan the sell entry, stops and targets with confidence.If price continues higher and breaks above the July 27 2026 high then trade setup is cancelled and if price breaks below the July 27 2026 low without tapping the 4H FVG then trade setup is cancelled.EURUSD 15 minute chart July 27 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.  Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFXAt Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Cryptos, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different time frames and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos  and we have a 24 Hour Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.

The Euro (EUR) is failing to draw any significant support from the truce in the Middle East and the lower Oil prices and keeps heading south against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. EUR/USD bears are testing fresh one-month lows below 1.1360, drawing near the year-to-date low of 1.1324.

Market optimism about a negotiated end of the US-Iran conflict and the 12% decline in Brent Oil prices have triggered a mild appetite for risk during the European session, with European stock markets showing marginal gains following a negative session in Asia. 

Risk appetite, however, has not translated into a weaker US Dollar this time, as traders cling to hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a surprise rate hike later this week. Futures markets are pricing a 35% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, up from 25% a week ago, according to data by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, underpinning support for the US Dollar, which has reached fresh monthly highs against a basket of currencies.

Technical Analysis: Below 1.1324, the next target is the 1.1245 area

EUR/USD trades at 1.1362, holding a mild bearish trend, after being rejected at the 1.1420 area on Monday, with price action approaching year-to-date lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling lower from the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has entered negative levels although it remains near zero. Momentum is flat to slightly bearish, rather than impulsively directional so far.

If the pair confirms below the bottom of the monthly channel at 1.1360, bears are likely to be tempted by the 2026 trading floor of 1.1324. Below here, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210, emerges as the next target.

On the topside, Monday's high, at 1.1420, and the top of the monthly range at 1.1480 are the key levels to breach to ease bearish pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

I am already riding two EURUSD sell entries. Another possible sell opportunity could be forming for traders that are not in yet.

EURUSD Possible Bearish Scenario

Watch for price to tap 4 Hour FVG (Purple) first. Watch for a bearish shift and bearish reversal signs in the FVG zone. Wait for all above to play out first then plan the sell entry, stops and targets with confidence. If price continues higher and breaks above the July 27 2026 high then trade setup is cancelled and if price breaks below the July 27 2026 low without tapping the 4H FVG then trade setup is cancelled.

EURUSD 15 Minute Chart July 27 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.  Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX

At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Cryptos, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different time frames and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos  and we have a 24 Hour Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.

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Summary:

EUR/USD traded near 1.1370 as the euro remained under pressure against a resilient US dollar. The pair continues to consolidate after a steady decline from May's highs, with traders awaiting fresh economic catalysts. Support at 1.1350 remains in focus, while a move above 1.1450 would be needed to improve the near-term outlook. EUR/USD continues to trade with a bearish bias after failing to sustain its recovery attempts over the past month. The pair has now retraced much of its spring rally and is hovering just above the 1.1300 area, a level that has acted as support several times this year.

The broader trend still favours the US dollar, with traders reluctant to challenge the greenback while uncertainty over interest rates and global growth persists. Unless the euro can reclaim higher ground quickly, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling interest.

EUR/USD Is Running Out of Support The daily chart shows a market that continues to make lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers remain in control.

The recent consolidation around 1.1370 does little to change that picture. Instead, it looks more like a pause within the broader decline than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

The 1.1300–1.1330 region is now the most important technical area on the chart. It combines previous swing lows and has repeatedly halted declines over recent months. If buyers fail to defend this zone, the technical picture would deteriorate significantly.

A Break Below 1.1300 Could Accelerate Selling The market is approaching an important decision point.

A sustained move below 1.1300 would confirm that the latest consolidation has failed and could encourage another wave of selling. Once that level gives way, downside momentum could build quickly as stops below support are triggered.

Conversely, buyers need to push the pair back above 1.1450 to ease immediate downside pressure. Until then, any recovery is likely to be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a new uptrend.

EUR/USD Price Analysis EUR/USD is trading around 1.1370 after several sessions of sideways price action. While volatility has eased, the overall structure remains negative.

Support is seen at 1.1300, followed by 1.1250 if that floor breaks. Initial resistance comes in around 1.1450, with stronger selling pressure likely to emerge near 1.1500.

For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside while the pair continues trading below recent swing highs.

EUR/USD Outlook The near-term outlook remains bearish.The current consolidation appears to be a pause after the recent decline rather than evidence that a meaningful bottom has formed. As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1450, sellers retain the advantage.

A break beneath 1.1300 would likely become the next major technical signal and could mark the beginning of another leg lower. Until buyers reclaim higher levels, the euro is likely to remain on the defensive against the US dollar.

Why is EUR/USD falling today?

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the US dollar continues to outperform, while the pair’s technical structure still favours sellers.

What is the key support level for EUR/USD?

The most important support sits between 1.1300 and 1.1330. A break below that zone would strengthen the bearish outlook.

Is EUR/USD still in a downtrend?

Yes. The daily chart continues to show lower highs and lower lows, suggesting the broader trend remains bearish until the pair breaks back above 1.1450.