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EUR/JPY resumed by breaking through 176.19 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 175.26/41 support zone. Strong rebound from there, followed by firm break of 177.95 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. However, sustained break of 175.26/41 will carry larger bearish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 186.00 to 177.82 from 181.53 at 173.35.

In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Strong support should be seen from 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 to contain downside. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.

In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place, and target 55 M EMA (now at 163.51).

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

EUR/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 177.70 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is consolidating between short-term support and medium-term resistance. The currency cross holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 177.54, while the 50-day EMA at 179.84 caps the topside and keeps the broader bias neutral rather than decisively bullish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.59 sits below the midline, hinting at modestly soft momentum but not outright oversold conditions.

The EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 177.54. A successful break below the short-term price average would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the 11-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 175.60. If selling pressure intensifies and pushes the currency cross below this confluence support zone, further declines could expose the 14-month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel near 178.70, followed by the 50-day EMA of 179.84. A move above the medium-term price average would cause a bullish reversal, opening the doors for the EUR/JPY cross to approach the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.

BoJ’s Ueda flags inflation near target as price pressures buildAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that in Japan, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda now judges underlying inflation to be "quite close" to the 2% target, pointing to tight labour markets and strong global AI demand as key sources of price pressure.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.07%0.00%0.03%-0.28%0.17%0.15%EUR-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%-0.01%-0.28%0.07%0.05%GBP-0.07%0.05%-0.02%-0.02%-0.23%0.12%0.10%JPY0.00%0.05%0.02%0.03%-0.18%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.03%0.01%0.02%-0.03%-0.22%0.13%0.11%AUD0.28%0.28%0.23%0.18%0.22%0.35%0.32%NZD-0.17%-0.07%-0.12%-0.14%-0.13%-0.35%-0.01%CHF-0.15%-0.05%-0.10%-0.13%-0.11%-0.32%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 177.30 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Furthermore, hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. BoJ policy board member Junko Koeda said that there is no need to be excessively cautious about rate hikes given that upside inflation risks remain substantial.

Koeda further stated that the Japanese central bank should adjust its policy rate in a timely manner while keeping in mind the estimated range of the neutral interest rate.

On the Euro front, Citi analysts believe French debt concerns could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause interest rate hikes after December, or earlier if financial stress spreads across the Eurozone. The ECB is likely to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% in October but raise it by 25 basis points (bps) in December as inflation runs nearly double its 2% target, according to a Reuters poll.

Japan flows highlight shifting confidence in JGBs and rising Yen headwinds from NISA-driven foreign equity buyingAnalysts at MUFG note that September was “a month of turmoil in global bond markets,” reflected in “the selling of foreign bonds by Japanese investors.” In contrast, they highlight that “foreign investors did not show the same aversion to fixed income” and instead recorded “a notable JPY 3,091bn worth of purchases of Japanese bonds.” With September also marking another BoJ rate increase, MUFG suggests this inflow “could be indicative of improved confidence in JGBs after three consecutive months of selling through to August.”

The bank also points to Japan Investment Trust data as “telling,” with “foreign equity purchases totalling JPY 1,360bn in September.” MUFG stresses that “the buying has picked up,” noting that “the 3mth sum of foreign equity purchases totalled JPY 3,949bn, a new record over a 3mth period.” They emphasise that this Investment Trust flow “captures households buying of foreign securities via NISA accounts” and that “the expanded NISA limits adopted in January 2024 continues to have a notable impact.” MUFG calculates that “annualising this 3mth flow implies an outflow of close to JPY 16trn (USD 100bn) and is an increasing negative yen factor.”

Looking ahead, MUFG argues that “providing tax-free opportunities to hold JGBs could well have an impact on the flows to foreign equity markets that is so evident today and given the scale of foreign equity purchases currently would be viewed as a clear yen positive.” Such a move “would be one policy initiative that would help the government reach a target of 40% of household financial assets being invested in domestic securities.” At present, MUFG notes that “nearly half of all household savings are parked in cash deposits and large portions of pensions and investment trusts are invested in foreign securities,” underscoring the potential for policy tweaks to redirect savings back toward domestic markets.

Technical Analysis: Negative outlookf of EUR/JPY remains intact below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and well below the 100-day moving average. Price action sits in the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 suggests subdued upside momentum and favors continued downside pressure unless resistance levels above are reclaimed.

On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the 20-day Bollinger SMA near 178.20, en route to the 180.00 psychological level. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 180.75, with a more significant barrier at the 100-day moving average around 182.90. 

On the downside, the lower limit of Bollinger band at 175.65 offers the next notable support. A clear break below this floor would open the door toward the October 20 low, 2025 of 175.34, followed by the October 2, 2025 low of 172.27.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Euro/Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY): Arc cycle analysis™

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30m chart, Euro/Japanese Yen is interacting with the 0.786 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price remains centered around this Arc, indicating that directional confirmation has not yet been established.

Metric

Reading

 Market Bias

Neutral

 Preferred Scenario

Awaiting Directional Confirmation

 Primary Target Zone

176.40

 Scenario Confirmation

Sustained close above 177.10

 Current Arc Level

Decision Arc (0.786)

 Cycle Status

Compression

 Arc Integrity

Testing

Market outlookPrice remains centered around the 0.786 Arc, indicating that the market has not yet established a definitive directional bias within the current Arc Cycle. The preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.

A sustained 30m breakdown below the 0.786 Arc would confirm the bearish scenario toward the primary price target at 176.40 (1 / 100% Target Arc).

Conversely, a sustained 30m close above 177.10 would invalidate the immediate downside setup and reopen the path back toward upper Arc resistance levels.

TL;DR: EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have broken key technical support this week, but the weekly performance breakdown shows only 0.1–0.3 percentage points of that weakness comes from genuine Yen strength—the rest reflects Dollar and Yen as the two strongest majors, with intervention risk capping USD/JPY and forcing Euro, Aussie, Sterling and Kiwi weakness to pass directly into their Yen crosses.

Why This Matters When several Yen crosses break support in the same week, the reflexive read is a broad Yen rally. But cross rates are arithmetic, not sentiment, and the underlying math this week tells a more specific story: Yen is not surging broadly, it is being held up by an intervention ceiling on one specific pair. That distinction matters directly for how far EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY can fall, and it hands traders a clean diagnostic—USD/JPY itself—for telling a contained cross-driven move apart from the start of a genuine Yen rally.

It Looks Like a Yen Rally, but the Arithmetic Says Otherwise EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have both broken important technical support this week. GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY have weakened alongside them. At first glance, the price action looks like a broad Yen rally. But the weekly performance breakdown tells a more specific story.

EUR/USD is down around -0.91%, compared with a -1.04% decline in EUR/JPY. AUD/USD has fallen roughly -1.82%, while AUD/JPY is down -1.97%. The same pattern extends to Sterling and Kiwi: GBP/USD is down around -0.69% versus -0.98% in GBP/JPY, while NZD/USD has fallen -1.12% against -1.41% in NZD/JPY.

That means only around 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point of the weakness in those Yen crosses reflects additional Yen appreciation beyond what is already happening against the Dollar. USD/JPY itself is almost unchanged on the week. The real picture is therefore that Dollar and Yen are the two strongest major currencies, while Euro, Aussie, Sterling and Kiwi are losing ground against both.

That raises the more interesting question: why is that relative strength producing outright breakdowns in EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY while USD/JPY itself is barely moving?

Dollar Strength Survives a Collapse in October Hike Odds The Dollar side of the equation is particularly notable because one of its recent supports has weakened sharply. CME FedWatch pricing now puts the probability of an October Fed hike at around 47%, down from roughly 71% a day earlier. The shift followed New York Fed President John Williams’ remarks in Buffalo on Tuesday. Williams said there was “no need for urgency” after September’s rate increase and that, if the economy develops broadly in line with his forecast, one further hike may be appropriate “late this year.”

That has turned October from something markets were leaning toward heavily into something much closer to a coin flip. But it has not produced a corresponding collapse in the Dollar.

Part of the reason is that Williams’ message was about timing, not an outright rejection of further tightening. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr continued to argue that further policy adjustments are likely to be required, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that keeping inflation above target for so long was “playing with fire.”

More importantly, U.S. Treasury yields remain historically elevated even after easing from their latest highs. The 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2007 this week, while the broader bond selloff has kept U.S. yields high enough to preserve substantial structural support for the Dollar. So the Dollar story has changed, but not reversed: the market has lost conviction that the next Fed hike must come in October, but it has not lost the high-yield environment that made the Dollar attractive in the first place.

Yen Strength Comes From an Intervention Ceiling The Yen is being supported by a very different mechanism. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, the highest in 31 years. But the Yen did not respond with a sustained rally because Governor Kazuo Ueda stopped short of delivering a clearly accelerated tightening path, while two board members dissented from the hike.

What changed subsequently was the intensity of the currency-policy warning. U.S. President Donald Trump raised concern over Yen weakness directly with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during their September meeting. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama subsequently said both governments shared concerns about the Yen’s undervaluation, while Katayama and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to maintain close communication on foreign exchange. Those exchanges came after coordinated U.S.-Japan Yen-buying intervention earlier in the year. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura then reinforced the message on Monday, telling markets to take the “very clear” warning from Tokyo and Washington “at face value.”

That history makes the current jawboning harder to dismiss as routine rhetoric. But the effect so far is more specific than a generalized surge in Yen demand—it is acting as a ceiling over USD/JPY. And that distinction explains what is happening in the crosses.

Why Intervention Risk Hits the Crosses Harder Cross rates are arithmetic. EUR/JPY can be expressed through EUR/USD and USD/JPY, and the same relationship applies to AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY.

In a conventional broad-Dollar rally, the two legs partially offset each other. Suppose EUR/USD falls because the Dollar strengthens: under normal circumstances, that same broad Dollar strength would also lift USD/JPY, cushioning the decline in EUR/JPY. This week, that cushion is largely absent. Intervention risk is preventing USD/JPY from participating fully in the Dollar’s wider advance—the Dollar can strengthen sharply against Euro, Aussie, Sterling and Kiwi without making comparable progress against Yen. The weakness in those currencies therefore passes much more directly into their Yen crosses.

That is why EUR/JPY can break lower even though USD/JPY is barely moving, and why AUD/JPY can suffer an even sharper decline when Aussie is already under independent pressure following the RBA and Governor Michele Bullock’s cautious guidance. The key mechanism is therefore not that intervention risk is generating enormous standalone Yen demand—it is that intervention risk is removing the offset that would normally cushion Yen crosses during a broad Dollar rally.

ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY EUR/JPY Heads Toward the 175.26–175.41 Test

The technical picture in EUR/JPY fits that mechanism closely.

The break of 177.82 support argues that the decline from 187.93 has resumed. Near-term risk therefore remains on the downside while 181.53 resistance holds.

But the larger fall can still be treated as a correction of the medium-term rally from 154.77 to 187.93, rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

The key test is the 175.26–175.41 support zone.

The 175.26 level represents the 38.2% retracement of the 154.77–187.93 advance, while 175.41 corresponds closely with the 2025 high. That makes the area an important technical confluence where a stronger rebound could emerge.

A sustained recovery above 181.53 would be the first meaningful indication that a short-term bottom has formed.

A decisive break through 175.26–175.41, however, would materially weaken the medium-term structure and increase the risk that the decline has become more than a correction. In that case, the 167.44 area, the 61.8% retracement of the same advance, would become the next major downside reference.

AUD/JPY Has the Cleaner Bearish Structure

AUD/JPY is technically more vulnerable.

The decline from 114.95 resumed with the break of 109.66, while the subsequent loss of 109.25 confirms that the correction is now retracing the much larger advance from 86.03.

The bearish case is also reinforced by the pair’s earlier rejection from the daily 55 EMA.

The next downside objective is around 107.32, representing the 100% projection of the 114.95–109.66 decline measured from 112.61.

A firm break there would expose 103.90, the 38.2% retracement of the entire 86.03–114.95 rally.

Any rebound should remain corrective while 112.61 resistance holds.

That gives AUD/JPY a cleaner downside structure than EUR/JPY, while the fundamental backdrop also reinforces it: Aussie is absorbing both broad Dollar strength and its own post-RBA repricing at the same time that intervention risk is preventing USD/JPY from providing an offset.

USD/JPY Is the Control Chart

USD/JPY is the most important chart for deciding whether this interpretation remains valid.

The pair has retreated from 159.02, but the decline has so far looked more like a corrective pullback than a renewed collapse from the larger 163.97 high.

Price is now testing the 156.67 area, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement of the rebound from 152.87 to 159.02.

If that support holds and USD/JPY turns higher, the intervention-cap interpretation remains intact. Officials may be limiting the Dollar’s upside against Yen, but they have not yet produced a decisive bearish reversal.

A recovery through 159.02 would strengthen that view and reopen 160.38.

By contrast, sustained weakness through the current support area would begin to signal something broader than an intervention-constrained Dollar rally. A break back through 152.87 would materially weaken the rebound structure and expose 151.92, around the 50% retracement of the larger rise from 139.87 to 163.97.

That creates a useful diagnostic:

If USD/JPY holds while EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY continue falling, the relative-strength mechanism remains intact. If USD/JPY itself starts breaking major support, then the story is becoming a genuine broader Yen rally. When Does This Become a Real Yen Rally? The technical picture currently mirrors the fundamental thesis unusually well. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have both broken important support and are carrying weak momentum. USD/JPY, by contrast, remains caught between a strong Dollar backdrop and increasingly credible Japanese intervention warnings, leaving the Yen crosses to absorb most of the adjustment. For EUR/JPY, 175.26–175.41 is the next major structural test; for AUD/JPY, the immediate focus is 107.32, with 103.90 becoming vulnerable if the correction extends.

But USD/JPY remains the control chart. As long as it holds around the current support structure, the breakdown in Yen crosses can still be understood primarily as weak Euro, Aussie and other currencies being transmitted through a USD/JPY pair capped by intervention risk. A sustained USD/JPY break lower would change that conclusion. Until then, the crosses may look like they are leading a broad Yen rally. The arithmetic says they are mostly revealing what happens when Dollar strength has nowhere to go against Yen.

Key Takeaways Only 0.1–0.3 percentage points of this week’s EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY weakness reflects genuine Yen strength beyond what’s already priced against the Dollar. October Fed hike odds fell to 47% from 71% after Williams’ remarks, but elevated Treasury yields have kept the Dollar’s structural support intact. Japan’s intensifying intervention warnings, from Trump-Takaichi talks through diplomat Atsushi Mimura, are capping USD/JPY specifically rather than lifting Yen broadly. That cap removes the usual offset in Yen crosses, so Euro, Aussie, Sterling and Kiwi weakness passes more directly into EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. USD/JPY is the key diagnostic: holding support near 156.67 keeps this a cross-driven story, while a break below 152.87 would signal a genuine broad Yen rally.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 178.50 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) as a slew of hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers have cemented views that the BoJ will raise interest rates this month.  

BoJ board member Hajime Takata said last week that the central bank could take a more aggressive approach than expected. Takata further stated that a 25-basis-point hike “is not necessarily set in stone,” and that generally speaking, back-to-back rate hikes would be a possibility, too.

The BoJ is set to raise its policy rate to 1.25% from the current 1.0% at its September policy meeting, signaling an acceleration in the pace of rate hikes. This would raise the interest rate to its highest level in about 31 years and follow a rate hike in June. 

Yen funding role questioned as rising JGB yields unsettle cross-border flowsStrategists at Rabobank argue that the “clear problem relates to the use of the JPY as a funding currency,” with markets now asking “whether there is room for the recent rapid unwind of JPY shorts to accelerate nearterm.” They add that an “appreciating JPY would bring fresh uncertainly over whether domestic Japanese investors would have less incentive to look for opportunity abroad,” a debate that has been sharpened by the rise in JGB yields, which has “already made this a topical theme.” Rabobank also notes that “the market has suspected that the US Treasury has been worried about large Japanese insurers potentially selling US government debt for JGBs for some time,” underscoring how shifts in Japan’s rate environment could reverberate through global fixed income positioning.

Technical Analysis: EUR/JPY keeps a bearish vibe amid oversold RSIIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY extends its corrective slide and holding decisively below key moving averages, which keeps the near-term bias firmly bearish. Price is lodged beneath the 20-day simple moving average (the middle Bollinger band) and the 100-day simple moving average, underscoring a market that remains capped by medium-term trend resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) has dropped to around 22, deep in oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure persists, the selloff could be at risk of fatigue if sellers fail to press decisively lower.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the lower Bollinger band near 179.00, with a recovery above this barrier needed to ease immediate selling pressure. Further up, the next hurdle is located at the 180.00 psychological level, en route to the Bollinger mid-line at 183.82 and the 100-day SMA at 184.70.

On the flip side, the November 10, 2025 low of 177.17 acts as an initial suppot level for the cross. Any follow-through selling below this level could pave the way to the November 4, 2025 low of 176.09, followed by the October 21 low, 2025 of 175.35.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

EUR/JPY continues to present a clear risk of a larger‑degree correction against the cycle that began at the February 2025 low. The internal structure of this pullback is forming as a double three, which is consistent with the broader corrective tone in the cross. The decline to 179.37 completed wave (W), and the subsequent advance in wave (X) reached 186.04. That pivot now serves as the key level that defines the corrective sequence. With wave (X) in place, wave (Y) has started to unfold as a zigzag. Down from the wave (X) peak, wave ((i)) ended at 184.91, and the recovery in wave ((ii)) reached 185.98.

The pair has since resumed lower in wave ((iii)), and the internal form shows a nested impulsive decline. Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 183.61, followed by a modest rally in wave (ii) that reached 184.20. The move in wave (iii) extended to 180.51 and reinforced the impulsive character of the sequence. A wave (iv) rally is now in progress as the market works to correct the cycle from the September 2 high. This bounce should remain corrective and is expected to unfold in either three or seven swings.

As long as the 186.04 pivot holds, the broader expectation favors a failure in the current rally. That outcome would allow the pair to resume lower and complete wave (Y) within the larger‑degree correction.

EUR/JPY 60 minute Elliott Wave chart

EUR/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 181.50 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the descending channel pattern, signalling a bearish bias.

However, the EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair has retreated from recent highs with price now trapped under this clustered dynamic resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above 30, hinting at lingering downside pressure despite approaching oversold conditions.

The EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 180.70. A break below the channel would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the cross to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could target the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 183.74, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.56. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 185.80. A break above the channel could support the currency cross to reach the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

Yen surge fuels talk of BoJ interventionStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Yen has mounted a sharp rebound against the Dollar, noting that “the yen is up a shocking 1.5% vs. the USD, building on Wednesday’s impressive gains that sparked renewed speculation around the possibility of official intervention.” They point out that the latest advance extends the recent bout of Yen strength and is reinforcing market chatter that Japanese authorities may be edging closer to stepping in if currency moves become disorderly.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%-0.03%0.20%-0.03%-0.08%-0.29%0.07%EUR0.00%-0.04%0.20%0.00%-0.10%-0.26%0.07%GBP0.03%0.04%0.23%0.04%-0.05%-0.23%0.10%JPY-0.20%-0.20%-0.23%-0.21%-0.30%-0.48%-0.15%CAD0.03%-0.00%-0.04%0.21%-0.09%-0.28%0.07%AUD0.08%0.10%0.05%0.30%0.09%-0.18%0.15%NZD0.29%0.26%0.23%0.48%0.28%0.18%0.33%CHF-0.07%-0.07%-0.10%0.15%-0.07%-0.15%-0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/JPY extends steep fall into second consecutive day (down 1.3% durian Asian / European trading on Thursday), losing so far over 2%.

Fresh strength of Japanese yen was sparked by hawkish narrative of Japanese officials which points to faster pace of BOJ rate hikes against growing inflationary pressures, while analysts sidelined scenario about another intervention, after yen lost the most of gains from late July intervention.

Sharp drop that accelerated further on Thursday, has so far retraced the largest part of 179.36/186.02 recovery leg (over 61.8%), with target at 180.93 (Fibo 76.4%) being in focus.

Technical studies on daily chart turned to full bearish configuration, but oversold conditions suggest that bears may face increased headwinds.

Strong support provided by the top of ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud (181.70, which has already contained attack on early Aug) are expected to hold bears again for consolidation / limited correction.

Two large bearish daily candles weigh heavily on near-term action and contribute to scenario of positioning for fresh push lower, targeting 180 (psychological) and 179.36 Au 3 spike low).

Upticks should be ideally capped under 182.70 zone (broken Fibo 50%) to keep bears in play.

Res: 181.90; 182.70; 183.48; 184.26.
Sup: 181.30; 180.93; 180.00; 179.36.

EUR/JPY inches lower after registering gains in the previous day, trading around 185.50 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining close to the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern, signalling a critical juncture. It offers a high-reward, low-risk entry point for traders; however, if the price presses continuously against the bottom line without bouncing back quickly, it demonstrates underlying market weakness.

The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a constructive bullish tone as it holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA remains above the longer one, hinting at a sustained uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55.9 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the cross defends the nearby moving average supports.

The EUR/JPY cross could advance toward the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 189.30.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 185.40, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 185.30. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 184.86.

A break below the medium-term price average would cause a bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

Yen focus intensifies ahead of BoJ as policy expectations stay in the spotlightStrategists at Scotiabank note that the “outlook for relative central bank policy remains front and center into the BoJ’s September 18 decision,” with attention increasingly drawn to signals from both domestic policymakers and international counterparts. They highlight media reports that US Secretary Bessent expects Gov. Ueda “to do the right thing,” underscoring market expectations for a measured policy response. Scotiabank also points out that Board member Takata is scheduled to speak later this week, an event that could further shape perceptions around the BoJ’s near-term policy trajectory.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The EUR/JPY trades horizontally on Monday as market participants remain reluctant to push the cross higher amid fears of potential intervention by Japanese authorities, even though they have remained shut following the coordinated action by the US and Japan. The cross trades at 185.59, virtually unchanged.

After falling from around 187.44 towards 182.12 on the three-day intervention day, the EUR/JPY has bounced off the 182.00 area and rallied back near the 186.00 mark. Momentum has shifted modestly bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been bullish since mid-August.

From a market structure perspective, EUR/JPY is neutrally biased, but it could resume bullish if it breaks above the year-high near 188.00. However, on its way north, the first resistance is at 187.00, followed by the psychological 187.50 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the yearly high of 187.95 ahead of 188.00.

Downwards, the first support for EUR/JPY is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 185.14, followed by the 50-day SMA at 184.72. Once surpassed, the next stop is the 200-day SMA at 184.16, followed by 184.00.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/JPY remains stronger for the second successive day, trading around 186.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot is moving higher within the ascending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60.85 suggests constructive upside momentum rather than overbought conditions.

The primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.00. A break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around its all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find the primary support around the nine-day EMA of 184.79, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.64 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

US Treasury move doubles buybacks and flattens the long endCommerzbank’s FX Research team highlights the impact of the latest US Treasury announcement on the rates complex, noting that, effective 9 September, “the US Treasury will double the size of liquidity support buyback operations to at least USD4bn.” They add that the decision immediately rippled through the long end of the curve, as “the 30Y yield fell 10bp following the announcement, and the curve flattened,” reinforcing the bull-flattening move that has underpinned recent Dollar weakness and Yen strength.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.13%-0.09%-0.05%-0.18%-0.40%-0.43%-0.10%EUR0.13%0.03%0.07%-0.08%-0.28%-0.29%0.03%GBP0.09%-0.03%0.04%-0.11%-0.31%-0.33%0.00%JPY0.05%-0.07%-0.04%-0.14%-0.36%-0.40%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.08%0.11%0.14%-0.22%-0.24%0.08%AUD0.40%0.28%0.31%0.36%0.22%-0.04%0.30%NZD0.43%0.29%0.33%0.40%0.24%0.04%0.35%CHF0.10%-0.03%-0.01%0.05%-0.08%-0.30%-0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The EUR/JPY registers two consecutive days of gains, but on Tuesday, buyers failed to gain traction as they faced a confluence of key resistance levels near the 184.70 area. The cross-pair is poised to end the day unchanged, near its opening price of 184.69.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe cross is approaching the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 184.72/73, with the 50-day SMA showing strong bullish momentum that could carry EUR/JPY past the 200-day SMA, which sits below the current spot price at 184.05.

A decisive break above the confluence of the 50- and 100-day SMAs opens the door to challenge 185.00. Once surpassed, the uptrend gains relevance, with traders eyeing the next cycle high at 187.47, the July 29 high.

On the flip side, the first support for EUR/JPY is the 200-day SMA at 184.05. Once surpassed, the next area of interest would be the May 6 swing low of  182.05, followed by the August 3 low of 179.37.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%0.06%0.08%0.16%0.30%0.43%0.18%EUR-0.03%0.04%0.06%0.13%0.26%0.40%0.15%GBP-0.06%-0.04%0.00%0.13%0.25%0.38%0.13%JPY-0.08%-0.06%0.00%0.09%0.22%0.36%0.11%CAD-0.16%-0.13%-0.13%-0.09%0.14%0.28%0.02%AUD-0.30%-0.26%-0.25%-0.22%-0.14%0.13%-0.11%NZD-0.43%-0.40%-0.38%-0.36%-0.28%-0.13%-0.24%CHF-0.18%-0.15%-0.13%-0.11%-0.02%0.11%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) crawls higher for the third consecutive day on Monday, against a weak Yen (JPY), weighed down by downbeat Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The EUR/JPY pair confirmed the breach of the 50% retracement of the late July sell-off, trading at the 184.50 area at the time of writing, with the resistance area around 185.00 coming closer.

The Japanese Cabinet Office revealed earlier on Monday that the country’s economic growth slowed down to 0.3% in the second quarter, against the market consensus of a steady 0.5% reading. Year-on-year, the Japanese economy decelerated to a 1.1% growth, from 1.8% in the previous quarter, instead of the 2.0% rise anticipated by market analysts.

Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that Japan’s latest activity data underscores a softer growth pulse than markets had anticipated. BBH highlights that “private consumption was flat, while private non-residential investment shaved -0.2ppt off growth.” “The sluggish domestic demand activity will do little to ease Japan’s fiscal concerns, a major headwind for JPY.” Said the BBH experts in a note.

Technical Analysts: In a bullish trend, aiming for the 185.00 area

EUR/JPY trades at 184.54, with price action holding comfortably above an ascending trendline from late July lows, and momentum indicators reflecting growing upside traction. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 signals neutral-to-positive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned increasingly positive, hinting that bullish pressure is rebuilding after a consolidating phase last week.

Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July's decline, at 184.82, and the July 31 high, at 185.17. Beyond here, the next upside target is the July 27 and 28 lows and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement, near 186.00

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the confluence of the 200-day SMA and the 50% retracement of the previously mentioned decline, just under 184.00. If these levels are broken, the focus will shift towards the Fibonacci cushions at 183.15, which held bears on August 12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.16%-0.03%-0.09%-0.59%-0.45%-0.38%EUR0.17%-0.01%0.13%0.07%-0.39%-0.25%-0.21%GBP0.16%0.00%0.13%0.07%-0.37%-0.27%-0.20%JPY0.03%-0.13%-0.13%-0.05%-0.54%-0.40%-0.32%CAD0.09%-0.07%-0.07%0.05%-0.49%-0.36%-0.29%AUD0.59%0.39%0.37%0.54%0.49%0.13%0.15%NZD0.45%0.25%0.27%0.40%0.36%-0.13%0.07%CHF0.38%0.21%0.20%0.32%0.29%-0.15%-0.07%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY moves little for the second successive day, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is maintaining a mildly bearish near-term tone as it slips beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while holding above the shorter nine-day EMA. This alignment suggests the recent bounce is vulnerable to renewed selling while intraday dips still find some demand.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.21 sits close to its midline, hinting at neutral momentum that neither strongly favors a continuation lower nor an immediate bullish reversal.

The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 183.46. A successful break below the short-term moving average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.54. Further advances above the medium-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

Yen steadies as intervention gains hold after recent slideStrategists at Scotiabank note that the Yen is holding firm after the latest bout of volatility, with the currency “steady and showing signs of stabilization following Monday’s worrisome decline that hinted to renewed pressure and a rapid reversal of its recent intervention-driven gains.” They suggest the current price action indicates those intervention gains are, for now, being preserved despite lingering market concerns.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.07%0.00%0.08%0.05%0.11%0.24%0.17%EUR-0.07%-0.06%0.00%-0.02%0.02%0.18%0.10%GBP-0.01%0.06%0.04%0.03%0.06%0.24%0.16%JPY-0.08%0.00%-0.04%-0.03%0.01%0.15%0.09%CAD-0.05%0.02%-0.03%0.03%0.04%0.20%0.12%AUD-0.11%-0.02%-0.06%-0.01%-0.04%0.16%0.12%NZD-0.24%-0.18%-0.24%-0.15%-0.20%-0.16%-0.06%CHF-0.17%-0.10%-0.16%-0.09%-0.12%-0.12%0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/JPY rises after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 183.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day Exponential moving average (EMA) while clinging to short-term support at the nine-day EMA. This configuration suggests a corrective phase within the broader uptrend, with sellers retaining the upper hand while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 hints at still-soft but stabilizing bearish momentum after the recent slide.

Yen positioning shift seen as response to Japan interventionStrategists at Societe Generale argue that the recent positioning adjustment in the Yen futures market is being driven primarily by official action rather than a genuine change in sentiment. They highlight that the sharp drop in speculative exposure, with the “collapse in Short Yen CFTC positions to 10.8%,” is “a reflection of MoF intervention, not a reflection of greater optimism that the currency has fundamentally turned.”

A pullback below the nine-day EMA at 183.06 would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could find initial resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57. Further advances above the medium-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.01%-0.00%0.43%0.07%0.00%0.06%0.02%EUR-0.01%-0.02%0.40%0.04%-0.01%0.03%0.00%GBP0.00%0.02%0.43%0.06%0.03%0.05%0.02%JPY-0.43%-0.40%-0.43%-0.39%-0.46%-0.44%-0.43%CAD-0.07%-0.04%-0.06%0.39%-0.13%0.00%-0.07%AUD-0.00%0.01%-0.03%0.46%0.13%0.03%0.02%NZD-0.06%-0.03%-0.05%0.44%-0.00%-0.03%-0.02%CHF-0.02%-0.01%-0.02%0.43%0.07%-0.02%0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 182.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross is retreating from recent highs and remains capped by these overlapping EMA barriers, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 suggests persistent but not extreme downside momentum after the latest pullback.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the nine-day EMA at 183.16, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.71. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

Eurozone resilience tempers calls for fresh ECB tighteningStrategists at BNY Mellon highlight that recent data show “growth defies gloom,” with Europe’s latest PMIs generally surprising to the upside and pushing back against immediate stagflation fears. They argue that while this resilience is clearly welcome, it is “not a clean invitation for the ECB to tighten again,” warning that “another hike risks turning a nascent recovery into a policy-induced slowdown” for the Eurozone economy and regional assets.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.07%0.00%0.02%0.16%0.13%0.03%EUR-0.05%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%0.09%0.09%-0.02%GBP-0.07%-0.01%-0.04%-0.02%0.08%0.06%-0.02%JPY0.00%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.14%0.13%0.05%CAD-0.02%0.03%0.02%-0.02%0.13%0.12%0.03%AUD-0.16%-0.09%-0.08%-0.14%-0.13%-0.00%-0.11%NZD-0.13%-0.09%-0.06%-0.13%-0.12%0.00%-0.06%CHF-0.03%0.02%0.02%-0.05%-0.03%0.11%0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

BOJ misses chance to back stronger yen Weak JGB demand reinforces higher yield pressure Intervention changes little beneath the surface 200DMA becomes pivotal for USD/JPY The macro backdrop hasn't changed Despite all the headlines, speculation and the artificial move lower in yen pairs over the past week following the first coordinated intervention between the US and Japan in decades, the truth is that the fundamental backdrop that drove USD/JPY and other yen crosses higher has barely changed. That leaves me thinking it's only a matter of when, not if, USD/JPY and other yen crosses resume the gradual grind higher that was underway before the intervention episode.

Japan's policy problem It's hardly a revolutionary view, but Japan continues to run some of the loosest monetary policy settings in the developed world. Interest rates remain well below those elsewhere, real rates are still negative and the Bank of Japan passed up what looked like the perfect opportunity last week to send a shot across the bows that it was serious about continuing to normalise policy, instead producing another muddled and cautious performance even though markets have more than one full hike priced into the OIS curve by December.

Why not just get on with it? Inflation has been above target for years and the yen has been weakening for even longer. Yet instead of tackling one of the underlying drivers through faster policy normalisation, Japanese authorities, backed by the United States, opted to intervene in the FX market instead.

Fiscal policy isn't helping the yen's cause either. While Japan isn't running the most expansionary fiscal settings relative to other developed economies, it's the starting point that matters. Government debt is already enormous, leaving the country far more vulnerable than most if an external shock were to emerge. That's one reason investors continue demanding higher yields to own Japanese government debt.

Yesterday's weak 10-year JGB auction reinforced that message. Demand softened noticeably, with the bid-to-cover ratio slipping to 2.56 from 3.13 at the previous sale, while the auction tail blew out to its widest since August 2024, signalling investors demanded greater compensation to absorb the debt ahead of Thursday's 30-year auction.

Then there's the buoyancy of global markets. Risk appetite continues to rip higher, encouraging investors to borrow in one of the world's cheapest funding currencies and invest elsewhere. That's carry trade 101. As long as Japan continues to offer ultra-low interest rates, volatility suppressed while asset prices remain well supported, one of the structural forces that has weighed on the yen remains firmly in place.

No such thing as a free lunch US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to justify the rationale behind US involvement in the first coordinated intervention with Japan in decades during a CNBC interview overnight. He spoke about preserving financial stability across Asia, giving Japan the breathing room to continue investing overseas and expressed confidence that the BOJ would ultimately do what was right for the Japanese economy.

But if I'm being honest, I don't think the explanation stacks up, or at least not entirely. The most interesting part of the interview wasn't what Bessent said, it was what he didn't. There was no mention whatsoever of the risk that Japan, left to defend the yen on its own, may eventually have been forced to sell US dollar assets to fund further intervention.

Instead, he repeatedly returned to Japan's ability to continue investing in the United States, immediately catching my attention given the enormous investment commitments made under last year's trade agreement. Call me cynical, but this administration has shown time and again there's no such thing as a free lunch. If it's prepared to scratch your back, it's usually because there's something much larger in it for the US. Protecting those investment flows while the long end of the US Treasury curve is already under pressure may have been every bit as important as stabilising the yen itself.

Where did the correlations go? Looking ahead, despite the apparent rationale behind the decision, there's no guarantee the intervention marks the start of a more sustained move lower in USD/JPY. Traditional macro drivers have shown little to no relationship with the pair recently.

Source: Tradingview

As the correlation matrix above highlights, yield differentials, Fed pricing, index futures and energy prices have shown little to no relationship with USD/JPY over both the short and medium-term, while volatility measures are providing mixed and incoherent messaging. That suggests the argument that a softer run of US economic data or stronger Japanese data will be enough to trigger a sustained decline in USD/JPY is not overly convincing. 

Eyes on the US calendar

Source: TradingView

More broadly, the direction of the US dollar is likely to be influenced by the incoming economic data flow. Some of the softness overnight coincided with a notable pullback in Fed rate expectations, with pricing for the June meeting next year falling to around 44 basis points, down more than 10 basis points from where it sat a week ago. That likely reflects the sharp decline in energy prices over recent days rather than anything contained in Tuesday's JOLTS report.

Source: TradingView

ADP employment will be watched closely after doing a reasonable job of predicting private sector payrolls growth in the official government figures in recent months. ISM services PMI is also important given the sector's significance to the broader US economy, with the prices paid and new orders components likely to provide the best read on inflationary pressures and the near-term growth outlook.

In Japan, wages data is unlikely to move the dial on its own. However, it remains a necessary ingredient if the BOJ is to continue normalising policy, relying on firmer wage growth to support demand, generate inflationary pressures and create the virtuous cycle policymakers have been trying to encourage.

Déjà vu for USD/JPY

Source: TradingView

USD/JPY staged a dramatic bounce from the support zone beneath 155.60 on Monday after what looked like a third straight day of intervention. Importantly, that's almost exactly where the pair stabilised after the intervention episode in late April and early May before going on to fully retrace the move over subsequent weeks.

Monday's capitulation-style candle was followed immediately by a bullish engulfing candle on Tuesday, suggesting selling pressure may already be fading. The price now finds itself wedged beneath an important resistance zone formed by the 200-day simple moving average and 157.92, the breakout level that paved the way for the surge to fresh multi-decade highs following the April-May intervention episode.

Given the historical significance of those levels, I get the sense the resistance zone overhead, particularly the 200-day moving average, will act like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above it, it would reinforce the view the intervention episode is over for now, opening the door for a push towards the 100-day moving average near 160 before bringing the former record high at 160.73, a level that has acted as both support and resistance this year, into view.

While RSI (14) and MACD have weakened sharply following the intervention-induced flush of speculative longs, that alone shouldn't be interpreted as a signal the downside move will persist. If anything, the violent washout leaves positioning looking far less stretched than it did only a week ago. If renewed selling does emerge, which at this stage feels like the less likely outcome, the support zone beneath 155.60 remains the level to watch.

EUR/JPY eyes further retracement

Source: TradingView

The technical picture for EUR/JPY is similar, with a bullish engulfing candle printing on Tuesday and the pair now sitting just beneath 182, a level that acted as support for extended periods earlier this year before giving way during the intervention episode.

Like USD/JPY, that resistance zone feels like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above 182, it would reinforce the bullish engulfing signal, opening the door for a push towards the 200-day simple moving average at 183.70. Beyond that, the confluence of the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages around 185 comes into view, followed by 186, another level of note given it acted as resistance for extended periods before flipping to support ahead of the intervention episode.

On the downside, the pair bounced violently after a brief foray beneath 180 during Monday's likely intervention. That leaves the area around 180 as the first support zone to watch, followed by 178.83, the breakout level from October last year.

EUR/JPY gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 181.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross is retreating away from recent highs, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.97 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but nearing stretched conditions.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the nine-day EMA at 183.62, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.90. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

Yen positioning seen shifting after Japan-US interventionStrategists at Rabobank highlight that "JPY net shorts had climbed to their highest levels since 2024 last week," just before the "concerted intervention from the MoF and the US Treasury to stem the weakness in the JPY." The bank argues that this official action "suggests that positioning is likely to be sharply changed in the next data release," but cautions that "it is too early to assess whether Japan’s fundamentals have strengthened sufficiently to allow the JPY to hold better levels vs. the USD in the spot market over the medium-term."

(The story was corrected on August 4 at 03:45 GMT to say in the title that EUR/JPY rebounds from eight-month lows and not highs.)

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%0.03%0.24%-0.04%-0.32%0.03%-0.08%EUR0.04%0.05%0.29%-0.00%-0.29%0.05%-0.03%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.23%-0.05%-0.33%0.00%-0.08%JPY-0.24%-0.29%-0.23%-0.27%-0.55%-0.23%-0.19%CAD0.04%0.00%0.05%0.27%-0.28%0.06%-0.03%AUD0.32%0.29%0.33%0.55%0.28%0.34%0.25%NZD-0.03%-0.05%-0.01%0.23%-0.06%-0.34%-0.08%CHF0.08%0.03%0.08%0.19%0.03%-0.25%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 179.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is extending a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The short-term EMA remains below the longer 50-period EMA, reinforcing downside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 27.71 slips into oversold territory, hinting that while sellers are in control, the pace of the decline could soon moderate.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross rises toward the nine-day EMA at 184.07, followed by 185.02. A break above these moving averages would cause a bullish shift and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.06%-0.63%0.09%-0.13%-0.08%0.15%EUR0.08%0.13%-0.61%0.16%-0.07%0.04%0.18%GBP-0.06%-0.13%-0.70%0.00%-0.20%-0.09%0.08%JPY0.63%0.61%0.70%0.66%0.42%0.54%0.67%CAD-0.09%-0.16%-0.00%-0.66%-0.23%-0.12%0.00%AUD0.13%0.07%0.20%-0.42%0.23%0.10%0.29%NZD0.08%-0.04%0.09%-0.54%0.12%-0.10%0.19%CHF-0.15%-0.18%-0.08%-0.67%-0.01%-0.29%-0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) extends the intraday rally to near 185.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Bank of Japan’ (BoJ) monetary policy decision during the Asian trading session on Friday. The BoJ has kept interest rates steady at 1%, as expected, with an 8-1 majority.

BoJ member Hajime Takata dissented from the vote to hold and favored a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike to push rates to 1.25%.

The Japanese central bank has warned that medium-to-long-term inflation expectations are set to climb and has reiterated that the monetary policy path will remain on the upside. “Will keep raising interest rates in response to economic, price trends and financial conditions,” BoJ said.

The BoJ was already anticipated to do so as it is unlikely to deliver back-to-back rate hikes to build pressure on the economy. In the June meeting, the Japanese central bank raised borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%, the highest level not seen since 1995.

On the Eurozone front, investors await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which will be published at 09:00 GMT. The inflation data from Germany and Spain showed on Monday that inflationary pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace.

According to TD Securities, Eurozone inflation is likely to firm only modestly in the latest print, with the bank expecting “euro area HICP to pick up only slightly to 2.9% y/y (mkt: 2.9%; prior: 2.8%), as the recent rebound in energy is largely offset by softer food and core goods prices.” The analysts note that “airfares may provide some upside given higher jet fuel costs and the start of the summer holiday season,” but they judge that “broader services HICP is likely to remain contained, with limited evidence so far of a wider pass-through of the energy shock.” In this context, TD Securities concludes that “we see the core inflation number remaining steady at 2.4% y/y (mkt: 2.4%, prior: 2.4%).”

Signs of acceleration in inflationary pressures in the Eurozone would prompt expectations of more interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the near term.

Bank of Japan FAQs The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

EUR/JPY plunges on Thursday, down 2.54% on the day to trade around 182.60 at the time of writing, after a sudden surge in the Japanese Yen (JPY) triggered by what appears to be another intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. The move has been particularly violent, with the pair losing more than 400 pips in just a few minutes.

The JPY rally comes without any obvious economic catalyst, reinforcing speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance has stepped into the market to curb the currency's persistent weakness. USD/JPY is also tumbling below the 161.00 mark, while other major Japanese Yen crosses are posting broad-based losses.

The suspected intervention recalls the episode at the end of April, when the Japanese Yen appreciated by nearly 3% against the US Dollar after USD/JPY reached a high of 160.72. At that time, the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki warned that "decisive" action was imminent, while top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura described it as the market's "final warning." Two sources familiar with the matter later told Reuters that Japanese authorities had intervened to support the currency. Since then, the Finance Minister has continued to warn that further intervention remains possible as the Japanese Yen has continued to weaken.

Market attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision on Friday. The central bank is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1%, but investors will closely watch the updated economic projections and Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments for clues on whether another rate hike could come as early as October or be delayed until December. A more hawkish message could extend the Japanese Yen's rebound and keep pressure on JPY crosses.

On the European side, the latest economic data has offered only limited support to the Euro (EUR). Preliminary figures showed that Germany's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.2% QoQ in the second quarter, beating expectations of 0.1%, while annual growth accelerated to 0.9%.

Across the Eurozone, the economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter and 1% YoY, also exceeding market forecasts. Meanwhile, the European Commission reported an improvement in July Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment, although the Unemployment Rate edged up to 6.3%.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.56%-0.53%-2.58%-0.28%-0.91%-1.33%-1.12%EUR0.56%0.02%-2.00%0.34%-0.37%-0.79%-0.53%GBP0.53%-0.02%-2.01%0.30%-0.38%-0.79%-0.53%JPY2.58%2.00%2.01%2.37%1.73%1.29%1.57%CAD0.28%-0.34%-0.30%-2.37%-0.62%-1.05%-0.78%AUD0.91%0.37%0.38%-1.73%0.62%-0.41%-0.17%NZD1.33%0.79%0.79%-1.29%1.05%0.41%0.29%CHF1.12%0.53%0.53%-1.57%0.78%0.17%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).