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EURGBP jumps 0.3% on Wednesday as Euro gets inflated by weaker dollar and expectations that the ECB will join the trend of policy tightening by the major central banks, while the Bank of England is likely to keep more cautious approach and probably keep rates on hold that keeps sterling in defense.

Fresh strength retraces over 61.8% of 0.8607/0.8564 pullback that partially offsets negative signal from bull-trap pattern on daily chart (failure to sustain gains above 0.8600 – Fibo 61.8% of 0.8689/0.8454 / 100DMA).

Bounce and likely repeated close above daily Ichimoku cloud (0.8572) supports the notion, but sustained break above 0.8600 pivot is still required to bring bulls fully in play and generate initial signal of bullish continuation of rally from 0.8454 (July 15 low).

Predominantly bullish daily technical studies, particularly while the price holds above daily cloud top, supports positive near-term outlook.

Res: 0.8600; 0.8617; 0.8634; 0.8651
Sup: 0.8572; 0.8564; 0.8547; 0.8528

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

ING’s tactical range limits GBP/EUR near 1.166, but UBS expects Sterling to reach 1.19 by December before settling near 1.18 in 2027. The British Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate held near 1.1650 on Tuesday after Chancellor John Healey’s first major economic speech produced only a restrained Sterling response.

Foreign exchange analysts at ING expect GBP/EUR to stay close to current levels in the near term, while UBS forecasts a 2.1% rise to 1.19 by the end of 2026.

The two calls point to limited immediate momentum followed by a stronger Pound move before December.

ING expressed its forecast in EUR/GBP terms, expecting 0.8580-0.8610 to contain the pair for now.

Inverting that range gives an equivalent GBP/EUR band of approximately 1.1614-1.1655, placing the latest rate close to its upper boundary.

Ahead of Healey’s address, ING said:

“Expect him to emphasise fiscal sustainability today, but it will be hard for him to conjure up many meaningful pro-growth measures. 0.8580-0.8610 should contain EUR/GBP for the time being.”

Healey subsequently focused on growth, regional investment and reducing the cost of regulation, but left tax and spending details for the October 28 Budget.

“The Prime Minister and I are in lockstep in our commitment to meeting the fiscal rules at the upcoming Budget,” the Chancellor said in his economic speech.

Pound Sterling edged higher initially, but the lack of policy detail prevented the GBP/EUR exchange rate from making a decisive break above 1.1660.

Our latest Pound-to-Euro market report also found that the Chancellor’s growth message provided only modest support.

Image: GBP/EUR 1-month chart UBS Expects Most of the Sterling Rise This Year UBS takes a more constructive medium-term view, forecasting GBP/EUR at 1.19 in December 2026.

The bank then expects the pair to ease to 1.18 in March 2027 and remain at that level through June and September.

Expressed in the opposite direction, UBS forecasts EUR/GBP falling from around 0.86 to 0.84 by December before returning to 0.85 during 2027.

Most of the expected Sterling appreciation is therefore concentrated in the closing months of 2026 rather than spread across next year.

UBS’s outlook also contrasts with Rabobank’s forecast for EUR/GBP to rise towards 0.87, equivalent to GBP/EUR falling towards 1.1495.

The European Central Bank’s decision this week provides the next immediate test, while the October Budget will determine whether the British Pound can move from ING’s narrow tactical range towards UBS’s 1.19 forecast.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

TL;DR: Thursday’s ECB hike to 2.50% is almost fully priced, but economists overwhelmingly expect it to be the last move while markets price roughly two more hikes within a year — and EUR/GBP is testing a major resistance cluster at 0.8610–0.8617 at exactly the moment that disagreement needs resolving.

The Hike Is Almost Certain. What Comes After It Is Not. Calling Thursday’s ECB meeting a non-event because a 25bp hike is already almost fully priced misses the part of the meeting that actually matters.

There’s little disagreement over the immediate decision. Markets assign roughly a 95% probability to a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.50%, while all 65 economists in the latest Reuters poll expect the same move. But beyond September, the consensus breaks apart sharply.

Economists overwhelmingly think Thursday will mark the end of the tightening campaign. Rates markets do not. Some 91% of economists expect the deposit rate to finish 2026 at 2.50%, while 78% see it still there through the middle of 2027. OIS pricing, by contrast, implies around 72bp of cumulative tightening over the coming 12 months — roughly three hikes in total, including the one expected this week.

That leaves close to two additional moves embedded in the curve beyond Thursday. So the real question isn’t whether the ECB hikes. The hike is priced. The rate path is not. And EUR/GBP has arrived at a particularly awkward place for that disagreement to be resolved.

EUR/GBP Is Testing More Than Just Another Resistance Level The pair has recovered from 0.8453 into a resistance zone where several independent technical methods converge.

On the daily chart, the broader cycle runs from the October 2024 base around 0.8221 through the rally to 0.8863, followed by a decline that developed through lower highs before stalling at 0.8453. That low wasn’t technically random. The 61.8% retracement of the entire 0.8221–0.8863 advance sits around 0.8466, almost exactly where the decline eventually found support. That strengthens the significance of 0.8453 as a potential medium-term turning point.

But proving a bottom exists is very different from proving a new uptrend has begun. EUR/GBP has now reached the 0.8610 area, and this is where the recovery faces its first serious test. Three separate forms of daily resistance converge there.

First is horizontal structure. EUR/GBP previously consolidated around 0.8610 on two occasions during the decline, giving the zone clear historical significance. Second is the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8863–0.8453 decline, which also comes in almost exactly at 0.8610.

The weekly chart raises the bar further. The 55-week EMA currently sits around 0.8617, leaving EUR/GBP facing a broader resistance cluster between roughly 0.8610 and 0.8617. That matters because the pair isn’t simply approaching a level where one technical method happens to suggest resistance — several different structures are saying much the same thing. It will probably take real fundamental conviction to clear them.

Momentum Has Already Started to Hesitate The higher-timeframe momentum picture is still constructive. Daily RSI is around 61, leaving considerable room before overbought territory, while daily MACD has crossed higher and is holding above zero. There’s no obvious daily exhaustion signal.

The four-hour chart, however, is beginning to tell a different story. EUR/GBP reached 0.8607 last week, effectively tagging the lower edge of the resistance cluster, but momentum failed to confirm the move. Four-hour MACD shows bearish divergence, as the latest price high wasn’t accompanied by a matching momentum peak. Four-hour RSI is only around the upper-50s.

The rally hasn’t stalled because EUR/GBP is already deeply overbought. It has stalled because momentum is fading exactly where substantial resistance should be expected. That makes the current setup genuinely two-sided. A rejection would fit the existing structure. But there’s still enough higher-timeframe momentum for a sufficiently strong catalyst to force a breakout. Thursday’s ECB projections could provide that catalyst.

Economists and Markets Are Making Different Bets The ECB announces its decision on Thursday, September 10, at 1215 GMT, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 1245 GMT.

The expected hike itself is close to settled. The latest Reuters poll, conducted between August 31 and September 3, found all 65 economists expecting a 25bp increase to 2.50%. That conviction has risen steadily: 83% expected a September hike in the previous poll, compared with 72% before the July meeting, when the ECB ultimately held rates unchanged.

But the firm consensus around September masks a much bigger disagreement about what comes next. Economists largely see this as the second and final move of what would be the ECB’s shortest tightening campaign in 15 years. Markets are leaving the door much wider open.

OIS pricing late Sunday put Thursday’s hike probability at 94.8%, equivalent to around 23.7bp of tightening. Yet the curve discounts approximately 72.1bp over the next 12 months. October itself carries only around a 40% probability of another move, while December is somewhat higher at roughly 44%, consistent with the possibility that the ECB could skip October and wait for the next major projection round.

But the exact meeting doesn’t matter as much as the cumulative message. Investors are effectively saying September probably won’t be enough. Economists are saying it probably will. Thursday’s projections need to begin telling markets which side has the stronger case.

The June Forecasts Already Included the Iran Shock This is why simply seeing higher inflation forecasts on Thursday wouldn’t automatically be hawkish. The ECB’s June projections were already constructed after the Iran war had become a major economic shock.

On June 11, the ECB raised the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate from 2.15% to 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. The central bank explicitly tied the decision to the conflict and its effects on commodity markets.

Its June staff projections put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. Core inflation excluding energy and food was projected at 2.5%, 2.5%, and 2.2%. GDP growth was seen at 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.5% over the same three years.

Compared with March, the direction was already stagflationary: inflation forecasts moved higher while growth was revised lower, with the ECB linking both changes to the war’s effects on energy prices, real incomes, and confidence. So Thursday isn’t about whether the ECB has suddenly discovered an energy shock. It’s about whether that shock is proving more persistent or more broad-based than the ECB assumed in June.

Headline Inflation Says One Thing. Core Inflation Says Another. The latest inflation data make that question unusually clean. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, putting it above the ECB’s 3.0% full-year projection for 2026. But the increase was driven overwhelmingly by energy.

Underlying measures moved the other way. Core CPI eased from 2.5% to 2.4%, while services inflation slowed from 3.3% to 3.0%. That divergence is the heart of Thursday’s policy debate.

If headline inflation is rising because the conflict has pushed up energy prices, while core and services inflation continue to cool, the ECB is dealing primarily with a supply shock. Higher rates can’t produce more oil or reopen shipping routes. They matter only if those higher energy costs begin feeding into wages, services prices, and inflation expectations. So far, the latest data don’t clearly show that second-round process taking hold.

That’s why the economist consensus can simultaneously accept a September hike and reject the need for several more afterward. The ECB can respond to the immediate inflation risk without concluding that a prolonged tightening campaign is necessary.

The complication is that supply shocks don’t always stay clean. Persistent increases in visible fuel, diesel, and food costs can influence inflation expectations. If households and workers start building those costs into wage demands, and companies begin passing them into broader prices, the distinction between an energy shock and underlying inflation becomes much less comfortable. Thursday’s projections should show whether the ECB thinks Europe is moving closer to that point.

Three Forecast Tests Matter More Than the 25bp Hike 1. Headline Inflation: How Big Is the Revision? A higher 2026 headline inflation forecast would hardly be surprising after August inflation reached 3.3%. The more important question is what kind of revision the ECB makes.

A modest increase confined mainly to 2026 could amount to little more than technical acknowledgement of higher energy prices already visible in the data. That wouldn’t, by itself, justify another two hikes after September. A larger revision extending meaningfully into 2027 would carry more significance, implying the ECB sees the inflation shock lasting longer than anticipated in June.

2. Core Inflation: The Real Hawkish Test The core projections are much more important. In June, the ECB forecast core inflation at 2.5% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028.

If that path is unchanged or revised slightly lower, the central bank would effectively be confirming that underlying inflation hasn’t materially deteriorated despite the increase in energy-driven headline CPI. That would strongly reinforce the “September and done” argument.

A meaningful upward revision would carry a completely different message. It would suggest policymakers see evidence — or at least a growing risk — that the supply shock is beginning to bleed into more persistent inflation dynamics. That’s the kind of surprise that could justify the extra tightening currently embedded in the market curve.

3. Growth: How Much Damage Is the Shock Doing? The June growth projections provide the other side of the equation. The ECB expected GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028.

Private-sector consensus remains broadly aligned with the first two numbers, suggesting no obvious reason for a large revision based purely on the growth data available so far. But the intensifying conflict creates clear downside channels through energy costs, weaker household purchasing power, and confidence.

If the ECB cuts growth further while raising inflation, Thursday becomes more complicated rather than simply more hawkish. Higher inflation alongside weaker growth strengthens the policy trade-off. That’s why markets need to look beyond the headline forecast revision and ask what exactly is driving it.

Scenario One: The ECB Confirms This Is Still Mainly a Supply Shock The cleanest EUR-negative outcome would be straightforward. Headline inflation is revised modestly higher, but core inflation stays broadly unchanged or eases. Growth stays close to the June path or receives a moderate downgrade.

That would tell markets the ECB still sees much of the inflation deterioration as energy-driven rather than evidence of a broader inflation resurgence. It would also validate the dominant economist view that Thursday’s hike can be the last.

This is where the asymmetric market risk becomes important. September itself doesn’t need to be repriced lower — the 25bp increase can happen exactly as expected. The adjustment would come from the additional tightening priced beyond September. With around 72bp embedded over the next year, the curve has significant room to remove future hikes without challenging Thursday’s move at all.

That would be a genuinely EUR-negative outcome. For EUR/GBP, rejection from the 0.8610–0.8617 resistance cluster would then have both technical and fundamental backing. The more important bearish confirmation would come below 0.8545. A break there would strengthen the view that the rebound from 0.8453 was corrective rather than the start of a durable trend reversal, exposing 0.8453 again. A renewed break of that low would reopen the broader decline from 0.8863.

Scenario Two: The ECB Validates the Market’s Hawkish View The bullish EUR scenario requires more than an energy-driven headline revision. Core inflation would need to move higher as well, or the projections and Lagarde’s communication would need to show the ECB is becoming more concerned about second-round inflation pressure.

The press conference could be just as important as the forecasts here. The ECB has repeatedly emphasized that it isn’t pre-committing to a particular rate path and will decide meeting by meeting. If that language stays essentially intact while Lagarde makes little effort to push back against the roughly two additional hikes markets are pricing beyond September, investors could interpret the meeting as tacit confirmation that the tightening cycle still has room to run.

That would give EUR/GBP the kind of Euro-specific catalyst needed to challenge the current technical ceiling. A decisive break through 0.8610–0.8617 would be the first important signal that the decline from 0.8863 completed at 0.8453. The next immediate objective would be the upper boundary of the descending daily channel around 0.8644. A sustained break there would make the recovery from 0.8453 look increasingly like a genuine reversal rather than another rebound within the broader decline.

Scenario Three: The ECB Solves Nothing The third outcome may be the easiest to imagine and the hardest to trade. Headline inflation is revised higher. Growth is cut. Core inflation moves too little to settle whether the shock is genuinely spreading.

That would leave the ECB facing essentially the same two-sided problem it described in June: upside inflation risk and downside growth risk at the same time. In that environment, markets may struggle to decide whether the extra tightening already priced into the curve is justified.

EUR/GBP could reject again from 0.8610 without generating enough downside conviction to break 0.8545. And if that happens, the technical stalemate simply survives another day. Friday’s UK data could then become the tie-breaker.

Friday’s UK GDP Matters Most If the ECB Leaves a Draw The ONS releases July monthly GDP on Friday, September 11, alongside the trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, and the NIESR monthly GDP tracker.

The broader UK growth picture is modest rather than collapsing. GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, while the IMF forecasts 1.0% growth for 2026 and the OECD 0.9%.

That gives Friday’s releases clear Sterling relevance. But they shouldn’t displace Thursday’s ECB meeting as the central driver of this setup. If the ECB convincingly validates further tightening, EUR/GBP may already be testing or breaking resistance before the UK numbers arrive. If the ECB instead reinforces the “one and done” view, the Euro could already be retreating from resistance, leaving UK data as a secondary confirmation or counterweight. Friday becomes most important under the mixed scenario, where Thursday fails to provide enough conviction to resolve either side of the technical range.

ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/GBP: The Market Has Already Drawn Its Own Line EUR/GBP is approaching Thursday with an unusually clean combination of fundamental and technical uncertainty. The rate decision itself is almost known. The projections are not.

Economists overwhelmingly think 2.50% will mark the end of the ECB’s tightening campaign. Rates markets are effectively pricing another two moves beyond September. That disagreement is now meeting a technical structure that also demands resolution.

At 0.8610–0.8617, EUR/GBP faces horizontal resistance, a major Fibonacci retracement, the descending daily trendline, and the 55-week EMA. Four-hour momentum has already begun to fade around the zone, but the daily recovery hasn’t yet exhausted itself. The pair therefore needs conviction, not merely another expected rate hike.

If Thursday shows headline inflation is hotter but underlying inflation remains contained, the additional tightening embedded in the curve has room to unwind. Rejection from resistance would then gain a clear fundamental explanation, with 0.8545 becoming the critical downside trigger.

If the ECB lifts the core inflation path and leaves markets comfortable pricing further tightening, the Euro could finally gain enough support to break the resistance cluster. That would shift attention toward 0.8644 and strengthen the case that 0.8453 marked a more durable bottom.

And if the projections split the difference, Friday’s UK GDP may have to finish the job. Either way, dismissing Thursday because the hike is already priced misses the real trade.

The hike is priced. The rate path is not. And EUR/GBP is sitting exactly where that difference starts to matter.

Key Takeaways Thursday’s ECB hike to 2.50% is nearly certain, but economists (91% see 2.50% through year-end) and markets (72bp priced over 12 months) disagree sharply on what comes after it. Core inflation (2.4% in August) and services inflation (3.0%) are both cooling even as headline inflation rises to 3.3% on energy, making the core forecast path the real hawkish test. EUR/GBP faces a genuine resistance cluster at 0.8610-0.8617, where horizontal structure, a 38.2% retracement, and the 55-week EMA all converge. An unchanged or lower core inflation path would validate the “September and done” view and favor rejection toward 0.8545 and then 0.8453. A higher core inflation path, or a press conference that doesn’t push back on further tightening, would open a break toward 0.8644, with Friday’s UK GDP as the tie-breaker if Thursday leaves the question unresolved.

The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as the previous two days' recovery has been capped again at a key resistance area between 0.8580 and 0.8585, which holds the top of an ascending triangle pattern. 

Macroeconomic data is scarce in both the UK and the Eurozone on Wednesday, and the Euro and the Pound are losing ground against a firmer US Dollar as rising global yields and fresh hostilities in Iran hammered investors’ appetite for risk.

In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel affirmed earlier on the day that markets see “over 95% chances of a September rate hike”, but has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. The pair seems to need additional impulse to break above the mentioned resistance area. 

Technical Analysis: Euro faces strong resistance ahead of 0.8585

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8573, holding in a neutral, slightly capped stance with bulls contained below the top of a triangle pattern, in the 0.8580-0.8585 area. Momentum indicators show a lack of clear bias, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) wavering around the key 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near the zero line.

Triangles are often continuation patterns, and, in this case, a bullish breakout is favoured. Above 0.8585 (July 30 high), the next target is the late June lows just above 0.8600. The triangle's measured target is at the June 26 high, at the 0.8630 area.

Bearish attempts, on the contrary, are seen contained at the 0.8560 area, where the triangle bottom crosses Tuesday's low, and below here, at the August 25 low, of 0.8546.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.16%-0.37%0.18%0.06%0.94%0.20%EUR-0.21%-0.06%-0.57%-0.03%-0.15%0.70%-0.00%GBP-0.16%0.06%-0.50%0.03%-0.10%0.74%0.05%JPY0.37%0.57%0.50%0.55%0.42%1.27%0.57%CAD-0.18%0.03%-0.03%-0.55%-0.13%0.72%0.02%AUD-0.06%0.15%0.10%-0.42%0.13%0.85%0.16%NZD-0.94%-0.70%-0.74%-1.27%-0.72%-0.85%-0.69%CHF-0.20%0.00%-0.05%-0.57%-0.02%-0.16%0.69% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) extends losses as the British Pound (GBP) seems to be coping better with the moderate risk-off mood amid growing tensions between the US and Iran, as Washington pledged an “economic D-Day” on the Islamic Republic. The EUR/GBP dives for the third consecutive day on Monday, trading at 0.8555 at the time of writing, about 0.3% below last week’s highs.

The calendar is thin on Monday, and data released on Friday showed fairly strong economic activity in both the UK and the Eurozone, while the UK's Retail Sales disappointed in July.

Analysts at ING highlight that, in the current "low volatility environment, sterling is probably still enjoying some carry demand given it is one of the highest, volatility-adjusted currencies in G10." Against that backdrop, they judge that "EUR/GBP can probably hang around these 0.8550 levels for the time being," with the cross expected to remain broadly steady as investors continue to favour the Pound’s carry profile.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.8530

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8556, halfway through the last four weeks' range, between 0.8530 and 0.8585. The immediate bias, however, has turned bearish and momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are modestly soft. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned slightly negative, which hints at waning upside pressure while keeping the cross in a range-bound configuration.

Bears are likely to be tested at the August 19 low, at the 0.8550 area. Further down, a breach of the July 24 and August 12 lows, at the 0.8530 area, would confirm a Double Top formation at 0.8585, whose measured target lies a few pips below the late July lows, at 0.8483.

On the topside, immediate resistance appears at Friday's top of 0.8575, followed by the top of July and August's trading range, at the mentioned 0.8585 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.09%0.16%0.52%0.11%0.16%0.15%EUR-0.13%-0.02%0.06%0.40%-0.01%0.09%0.03%GBP-0.09%0.02%0.09%0.45%0.00%0.12%0.05%JPY-0.16%-0.06%-0.09%0.40%-0.13%-0.00%-0.04%CAD-0.52%-0.40%-0.45%-0.40%-0.49%-0.29%-0.37%AUD-0.11%0.00%-0.01%0.13%0.49%0.11%0.06%NZD-0.16%-0.09%-0.12%0.00%0.29%-0.11%-0.07%CHF-0.15%-0.03%-0.05%0.04%0.37%-0.06%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/GBP remains stuck in a narrow trading range this month, stalling the rebound from near 0.8460 in mid-July as buyers struggle to clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8567 during European trading hours on Friday, virtually unchanged on the day.

Traders show a muted reaction to Friday’s economic data. UK Retail Sales came in weaker than expected, while the previous month’s readings were revised lower. Meanwhile, preliminary August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from both the UK and the Eurozone exceeded market forecasts.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP is capped beneath a dense band of medium- and long-term moving averages and Fibonacci levels, which keeps the near-term bias mildly bearish despite some stabilization in momentum.

Price is sitting on the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.8567. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 53 is neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are slightly above zero with a flat histogram, suggesting subdued upside pressure rather than a decisive trend reversal.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8573, with the 61.8% retracement at 0.8601 and the 100-day SMA at 0.8616 forming a nearby cluster that could stall any recovery.

Further up, the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.8641 precedes the 200-day SMA at 0.8663, while the June high and 100.0% retracement at 0.8692 marks a stronger barrier. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8545, ahead of the 23.6% level at 0.8511, with the anchor low around 0.8455 acting as a more significant floor if selling pressure resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.19%-0.24%-0.38%-0.72%-0.66%-0.13%EUR0.18%-0.01%-0.07%-0.22%-0.54%-0.46%0.05%GBP0.19%0.00%-0.07%-0.21%-0.52%-0.45%0.06%JPY0.24%0.07%0.07%-0.13%-0.48%-0.44%0.11%CAD0.38%0.22%0.21%0.13%-0.34%-0.28%0.24%AUD0.72%0.54%0.52%0.48%0.34%0.04%0.58%NZD0.66%0.46%0.45%0.44%0.28%-0.04%0.55%CHF0.13%-0.05%-0.06%-0.11%-0.24%-0.58%-0.55% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/GBP trades on the front foot on Wednesday, pushing up to the vicinity of a two-week high near the 0.8570 region as the Euro holds firm against a softer British Pound (GBP). The pair has cleared its recent range after a run of green candles on the 4-hour chart.

The move followed July inflation reports from both economies. UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% over the year, a four-month high and up from 2.6% in June, matching forecasts. Core CPI held at 2.6%, a touch hotter than the 2.5% expected. But core services inflation, the gauge the Bank of England (BoE) watches most closely, eased to 3.4% from 3.6%, and that cooling limited Sterling's lift after the release.

On the other side of the pair, the final euro-area reading confirmed headline inflation at 2.9% for July, unchanged from June and still well above the European Central Bank (ECB) target. With price pressure firm and the print in line, the Euro kept its footing.

The backdrop remains a global bond-market squeeze. Longer-dated yields have run to multi-year highs this week on inflation and fiscal worries, with German and UK long-end yields both elevated. US Treasury yields pulled back on Wednesday from those highs as traders square up ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Investors will look for detail on the split at that meeting, where pre-release reporting flagged three dissenters who wanted a rate hike. The tone of the Minutes will steer broader risk sentiment into the European close.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8572, holding a modest bullish bias as it remains above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8552 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8559. The cluster of nearby horizontal levels at 0.8561 and 0.8563 reinforces this underlying demand zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 68 suggests firm upward momentum that is edging toward overbought territory, hinting at the risk of a short-term pause if buyers hesitate near the current highs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the recent horizontal barrier at 0.8573, and a sustained break above this level would open the way for further gains in the near term. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 0.8563/0.8561 band, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.8559 and the lower horizontal and moving average floors at 0.8558 and 0.8552, where dip-buying interest is likely to emerge while the pair maintains its current constructive structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range around the mid-0.8500s on Friday, little changed on the day. The latest Eurozone figures came in close to forecasts, and they did nothing to push the pair out of the range it has held all week.

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter, matching expectations, with the annual rate at 1%. Employment rose 0.1% on the quarter, also as forecasted. Nothing in the release surprised, and the numbers are backward-looking, so the reaction was slight.

The pair has been going sideways for several sessions with the Euro (EUR) steadying after an earlier run of losses. United Kingdom (UK) data earlier in the week also landed close to forecasts, which left the Pound (GBP) without a clear lead of its own. With both sides matching expectations, little has separated them.

The Middle East war keeps a hand on energy prices, and through them on the inflation picture the European Central Bank (ECB) is weighing. Until that situation gets clearer, traders have little reason to commit to a direction.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548. The cross is hovering just under a cluster of nearby resistance with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8557 capping the topside together with horizontal barriers at 0.8549 and 0.8550. Price holds marginally above the 20-period SMA at 0.8545, which, alongside the latest relative strength index (RSI) reading near 49, suggests a consolidative, range-bound bias rather than a clear directional move.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA and horizontal level around 0.8545, ahead of a lower floor at 0.8541. On the topside, EUR/GBP would need to reclaim the nearby resistances at 0.8549 and 0.8550 to challenge the 100-period SMA at 0.8557, a break above which would be needed to re-open a more constructive short-term outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/GBP is trading on the lower end of its weekly range near the 0.8540 price zone on Tuesday. With no Eurozone or British data until early Wednesday, the cross is trading solely on sentiment, led by Iran's ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the United States' (US) counterblockade of Iranian ports.

Adding to the negative sentiment, US forces attacked a Panama-flagged ship that was trying to cross through the Strait.

The Sterling is trading with a firmer tone, maintaining the cross in the red for a second consecutive day.

On Wednesday, the main catalyst for the EUR/GBP will be the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). On Thursday, the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released, giving another indication of the direction of the cross.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8545, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8551 and the 20-period SMA at 0.8559. Short-term momentum is soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 37, hinting at lingering downside pressure even as the cross inches away from oversold territory.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.8547, followed by a tighter barrier at 0.8551 where a horizontal level coincides with the 100-period SMA, before the 20-period SMA at 0.8559 marks a stronger cap to any recovery attempts. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8544, with a deeper floor at 0.8541. A clear break below this lower band would open the way for further weakness in the short term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the second consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, weighed by a cautious market mood as hopes of a swift end to Iran’s war wane and Oil prices climb. The EUR USD pair remains capped below 0.8550 after hitting two-week lows at 0.8536 on Monday.

In the absence of key macroeconomic releases in the UK or the Eurozone, geopolitical tensions are the main market driver on Tuesday. In that sense, Strategists at Rabobank caution that, although the Eurozone's economy seems to have weathered the higher energy prices and supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the breakdown of the US-Iran peace agreement "clearly implies downside risks to growth and upside inflation concerns,” posing a heavy weight on the Euro.

Technical Analysis: Bears remain in control while below 0.8550

EUR/GBP broke the ascending channel in late July, and confirmed a bearish reversal this week after slipping below a previous support at the 0.8550 area, which is now holding bulls. Momentum indicators endorse the bearish view, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in the mid-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at slightly negative levels.

Initial support emerges at 0.8530 (July 24 low) and below here, a previous resistance area, around 0.8510. On the topside, the mentioned 0.8550 area should be broken to bring price action back to the previous ranges and shift the focus back to Monday's highs, at 0.8566 and the August 5 and 6 highs, near 0.8580.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.04%0.02%-0.01%-0.00%0.19%0.10%EUR-0.09%-0.04%-0.07%-0.08%-0.05%0.11%0.01%GBP-0.04%0.04%-0.04%-0.05%-0.02%0.15%0.05%JPY-0.02%0.07%0.04%-0.01%0.00%0.18%0.09%CAD0.00%0.08%0.05%0.01%0.03%0.19%0.09%AUD0.00%0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.03%0.16%0.07%NZD-0.19%-0.11%-0.15%-0.18%-0.19%-0.16%-0.09%CHF-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%-0.09%-0.09%-0.07%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) nudges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following a three-day rally. The EUR/GBP remains capped below the late-July top of 0.8586, trading at 0.8575 at the time of writing, yet with downside attempts subdued so far. 

Eurozone data was supportive on Thursday, as German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 3.1% increase in June, largely exceeding the 0.3% market forecast, and a downwardly revised 0.3% reading in May. 

Regarding the Pound, FX strategists at Rabobank argue that “a re-pricing in policy expectations towards steady policy from the BoE this year combined with the prospect of nervousness ahead of the October budget suggests scope for downside pressure on the pound as the summer draws to a close.”

In this context, Rabobank continues to see value in the cross, stating that “we favour buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” and adding that “a break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”

Technical Analysis: Failure to break 0.8586 might encourage bears

The technical picture shows the EUR/GBP pair trading at 0.8576, with momentum indicators highlighting weaker bullish traction. The Relative Strength Index (14) is trending towards the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers around zero, suggesting that bullish momentum is present but tentative.

Bulls need to break the mentioned 0.8586 resistance area level (July 29, 30 highs) to confirm the positive trend and target late June lows at the 0.8605 area. Failure to do so might give fresh hopes for bears to break the August 4 and 5 lows in the 0.8560-0.8565 area and aim for the July 31 low, near 0.8540, which will be the neckline of a double top pattern.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8548, followed by additional underlying demand at 0.8529 and 0.8510, with deeper structural levels resting at 0.8419 and 0.8327. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.8587, ahead of 0.8606; a sustained break above these caps would open the way toward 0.8730 and 0.8741, with higher hurdles at 0.8790 and 0.8863 likely to limit any extended advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.11%0.04%0.06%0.00%0.27%0.20%0.17%EUR-0.11%-0.06%-0.04%-0.10%0.15%0.10%0.06%GBP-0.04%0.06%0.02%-0.04%0.21%0.14%0.13%JPY-0.06%0.04%-0.02%-0.06%0.20%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.00%0.10%0.04%0.06%0.26%0.21%0.19%AUD-0.27%-0.15%-0.21%-0.20%-0.26%-0.05%-0.09%NZD-0.20%-0.10%-0.14%-0.14%-0.21%0.05%0.00%CHF-0.17%-0.06%-0.13%-0.13%-0.19%0.09%-0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 03.08.2026 USD Fails to Advance

USDJPY looking for another low
The dollar stopped short of turning things around after last week’s intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

The pair heads towards 157.00 as traders look for a confirmation break at this level. 157.40 is the level to see if more bears will step in before the pair extends lower. The RSI’s move towards the oversold area could see a test at 159.00, before a possible lift towards 160.75. EURGBP hits rejection

As the pair hit a new low around 0.8550, a potential bullish divergence on the RSI suggests a loss of momentum as prices find some support.

A break below 0.8550 would provide confirmation and prompt more buyers to cover. The former support of 0.8480 could be the last obstacle standing in the way of a substantial sell-off. On the upside, a spike above 0.8600 would undermine sellers’ efforts and trigger a rally to test the previous high above 0.8660. US 30 Index tests daily support
The Dow holds steady as the market digested the recent Fed announcement.

Spikes in price action suggest the index is testing the previous swing low around 52000. The top of a limited bounce at 52600 is the first hurdle to clear. In case of a bearish breakout, a move past 52400 opens up 51800 at the base of the breakout rally. Trading the forex market requires extensive research, and that’s what we do best

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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.

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MUFG warned that Sterling needed stronger September BoE hike conviction to advance, but Thursday’s guidance left markets with little reason to bring tightening forward. The Euro to Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) traded around 0.8574 on Thursday afternoon after the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, with Sterling failing to draw lasting support from a surprisingly hawkish 6–3 vote.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP): 0.856684 (-0.14%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.342999 (+0.47%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.150526 (+0.33%)

Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann backed an immediate increase, but the guidance suggested most policymakers remain prepared to wait for clearer evidence that higher energy costs are feeding into persistent domestic inflation.

EUR/GBP initially moved lower before rebounding above 0.8585, then settled back near 0.8574. The pair remained around 0.4% lower for July but was well above its mid-month low near 0.8467.

MUFG had argued before the announcement that the unchanged rate itself would not determine Sterling’s direction. With “nothing priced for today”, the bank said markets would focus instead on “the vote, the communication in the statement, the minutes and the updated forecasts”.

That proved accurate. The three dissenting votes looked supportive for the Pound at first glance, yet the wider message did not materially increase confidence that a September hike was coming.

MUFG had set a clear test for Sterling: “For market rates to move higher and the pound to advance in response to today’s meeting we will need to see increased conviction on a September rate hike.”

The decision did little to meet that threshold.

The Monetary Policy Committee acknowledged that inflation risks remain skewed higher, particularly because of energy prices and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. However, it also pointed to “clear signs of underlying disinflation” and limited evidence so far of stronger second-round effects.

That combination leaves the Bank concerned, but not yet ready to act.

MUFG had warned that if the inflation forecasts showed prices returning to target over time, “the take-away is likely to be that there is time to assess the inflation risks”.

In that scenario, the bank said “pricing for a September rate hike could ease back somewhat, taking the pound lower”. Thursday’s Sterling reaction was consistent with that interpretation.

Image: EUR/GBP intraday price chart showing the post-BoE rise above 0.8585 and subsequent retreat The intraday move captured the market’s changing reading of the announcement. EUR/GBP initially fell as traders reacted to the three votes for higher rates, but the decline quickly reversed once the guidance was absorbed.

The pair’s jump above 0.8585 suggested the vote count was not enough to convince investors that the next increase had moved materially closer. Its later retreat showed that the decision was not decisively dovish either.

Energy prices remain the strongest argument for keeping a hike in play.

MUFG said the backdrop had become “difficult with crude oil and natural gas prices rebounding significantly”, while a prolonged increase in energy costs “could certainly force the BoE to act, even in circumstances of mixed labour market conditions”.

That risk prevents markets from abandoning tightening expectations altogether. It also helps explain why Sterling’s losses were contained rather than severe.

Image: EUR/GBP year-to-date chart showing the July recovery from below 0.8470 towards 0.8575 The wider price history shows EUR/GBP recovering sharply after Sterling’s strongest run of the year.

The pair fell below 0.8470 in July before rebounding by more than a cent. Thursday’s decision has not broken that recovery, and the cross is again approaching levels that repeatedly contained declines during May and June.

The implication is straightforward: EUR/GBP does not require a major improvement in the Euro outlook to move higher. A modest reduction in expected UK rate support may be enough.

Near-Term EUR/GBP Forecast: September BoE Expectations Remain the Deciding Factor MUFG expected Sterling to remain “well supported at these levels” only on the assumption that “pricing for a September rate hike holds up”.

After Thursday’s announcement, that assumption looks less secure.

The 6–3 vote keeps tightening risk alive, but the guidance suggests the majority is comfortable waiting. Unless energy prices rise sharply or incoming inflation data deteriorate, September may prove too early for another move.

A further decline in September hike expectations could send EUR/GBP back above 0.8590 and towards July’s high near 0.8619.

Pound Sterling would regain firmer support if markets conclude that the three dissenters represent the beginning of a broader hawkish shift. That would require stronger inflation evidence or clearer concern from the MPC’s swing voters.

The vote looked hawkish. The message was more patient. For EUR/GBP, that leaves the recovery from July’s lows intact.

Summary:

Cooling British inflation and shifting rate cut expectations, combined with hawkish ECB signals, pushed the pound down toward monthly lows The BoE's July 30 interest rate decision will define near-term momentum Short-term weakness may persist ahead of upcoming central bank decisions, but the exchange rate should stabilize in the medium-term The sterling’s performance against the euro has shifted significantly in recent weeks. Following a peak near 1.1807–1.1827 levels in mid-July, the GBP/EUR pair has declined, now trading near its monthly lows, a drop of approximately 0.8–1% from its highest point.

This movement is notable for a currency pair that remained within a narrow 1.14–1.16 range for the first half of 2026. Here’s what’s actually going on.

What Drove the Slide The initial rally in mid-July for the pound was driven by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would maintain its bank bate at 3.75%, keeping it considerably higher than the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2.25% deposit rate for an extended period. While a decline in UK inflation to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June initially suggested potential BoE rate cuts, persistent services inflation (3.7%) and rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions led markets to briefly anticipate BoE rate hikes instead of cuts.

When UK inflation cooled to a 15-month low of 2.6% in June, it initially looked like the BoE might start cutting rates. But persistent services inflation (3.7%) and fresh oil price increases from Middle East events quickly changed that outlook. Markets briefly began pricing in BoE hikes instead of cuts.

That yield advantage, though, now looks less sustainable. Berenberg’s latest outlook suggests the BoE will resume cutting rates from December, lowering the Bank Rate from 3.75% to 3.00% by mid-2027. Should that prediction pan out, it would chip away at a key support for sterling.

Meanwhile, speculators had built significant short positions before local elections and the leadership transition. When these risks didn’t trigger an immediate sell-off, a short squeeze, along with carry appeal and some merger-related buying, pushed GBP/EUR upwards.

This technical support has since weakened. Focus has shifted to fiscal concerns under the new government. Limited fiscal flexibility, high government bond yields, and uncertainties surrounding spending plans, including potential cost-of-living support and defense expenditures, have raised questions about whether bond markets will demand a higher risk premium.

How Long Is the Downside Trend Likely to Continue? The future direction of the GBP/EUR pair in the coming quarters will largely depend on the divergence in central bank policies and economic growth paths. One key decision making will take place on July 30 when the BoE will announce its interest rate decision.

In the short term, sterling may face challenges in regaining its recent upward momentum as markets await further policy decisions from the BoE. If British economic data continues to show weakness, traders anticipate the pound will remain near its recent monthly lows.

A sustained decline, however, seems less likely. The Eurozone is also experiencing economic challenges, including slow industrial output in major economies like Germany. Most institutional forecasts predict the EUR/GBP pair will trade within a defined range rather than trend sharply in one direction. Once the market has a clearer understanding of the BoE’s monetary policy path, sterling is expected to find stable technical support.

Eurozone inflation at 2.8% remains above the target, and growth is projected at a modest 0.8% for 2026. The euro’s current advantage stems less from its own strength and more from the ECB’s predictable policy compared to the fluctuating outlook from the BoE.

Why did GBP/EUR hit a one-year high in mid-July 2026?

A widening rate gap between BoE and ECB, and resolved UK political uncertainty pushed sterling higher.

Is the euro strengthening on its own merits?

Not really the ECB held rates after June’s hike, with eurozone growth weak; it’s benefiting mainly from policy predictability.

What’s the next major catalyst for GBP/EUR?

The Bank of England’s 30 July decision, where guidance on inflation and fiscal concerns matters more than the rate call itself.

The Euro (EUR) is nursing moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as bulls failed to find acceptance above the 0.8575 resistance area on Tuesday. The pair, however, remains within the upper range of the 0.8500s with the near-term bullish bias intact, and the focus shifting towards the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting, due on Thursday.

Rabobank’s FX strategists warn that the Pound could come under pressure as markets reassess the UK policy outlook. They argue that “the potential for disappointment over a lack of rate rises from the Bank this year, coupled with the likelihood of political friction over budget cuts,” may turn market sentiment less supportive for sterling.

Technical Analysis: Bulls target 0.8575 and the 0.8600 area

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8566, hovering in the upper half of a bullish channel. Momentum indicators are in positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 64, after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram at slightly positive levels, hinting that upside pressure is still intact.

Immediate resistance is in the area between the mentioned 0.8575 area (July 2, 3, and 29 highs) and the channel cap, now around 0.8580. Above these levels, the next target is the late-June lows, around 0.8605.

On the downside, first support emerges at the 0.8550 area where Tuesday's lows meet the channel base. Below here, the July 23 low, near 0.8530, and July 17 and 20 highs in the 0.8510-0.8515 area are expected to challenge bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%0.26%-0.05%0.07%0.80%0.35%0.41%EUR0.00%0.25%-0.04%0.07%0.80%0.35%0.41%GBP-0.26%-0.25%-0.39%-0.18%0.55%0.10%0.15%JPY0.05%0.04%0.39%0.10%0.83%0.38%0.35%CAD-0.07%-0.07%0.18%-0.10%0.70%0.28%0.34%AUD-0.80%-0.80%-0.55%-0.83%-0.70%-0.45%-0.40%NZD-0.35%-0.35%-0.10%-0.38%-0.28%0.45%0.05%CHF-0.41%-0.41%-0.15%-0.35%-0.34%0.40%-0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) has picked up towards the 0.8540 area against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, after a mild pullback on Friday found support at 0.8530. The pair maintains the immediate bullish trend from mid-July lows at 0.8455, with bulls looking at three-week highs in the area of 0.8555. 

The Euro is drawing support from a moderate relief rally on Monday, as the US and Iran halted their hostilities, which allowed Oil prices to decline about 9% from last week’s highs, with the barrel of Brent Oil down to $87.40 from above $96.00 last Thursday. Eurozone countries are net Oil importers, and the Crude rally seen over the last few weeks had threatened to strangle economic activity.

In the UK, Prime Minister Andrew Burnham’s spending plans keep investors on edge while the focus this week shifts to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. The BoE will, all but certain, leave interest rates on hold, but investors will be very attentive to the vote split and Governor Bailey’s press release to assess the chances of any rate hike in the near-term.

Technical Analysis: In a bullish correction following the June-July sell-off

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8543, keeping a constructive near-term tone as it holds within a bullish channel from mid-July lows. The pair is correcting higher after a 2.5% decline from June highs, with momentum indicators hinting at a mild upside bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) is around 60, hinting at positive momentum, even as the MACD (12, 26, close, 9) has slipped marginally into negative territory.

The bullish structure maintains the July 8 and 24 highs at 0.8555 in play. Above that level, the top of the channel, now around 0.8565, and July 2 and 3 highs, in the area of 0.8575, are likely to test bulls.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the confluence of the channel floor and July 23 and 24 lows, around 0.8530. Below here, a previous resistance area, around 0.8510 (July 17, 20 highs), is likely to be targeted ahead of the July 20 low, at 0.8483.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.34%-0.20%-0.18%0.03%-0.32%-0.24%-0.44%EUR0.34%0.11%0.15%0.36%0.03%0.12%-0.11%GBP0.20%-0.11%0.04%0.25%-0.10%-0.03%-0.22%JPY0.18%-0.15%-0.04%0.18%-0.15%-0.07%-0.25%CAD-0.03%-0.36%-0.25%-0.18%-0.34%-0.26%-0.46%AUD0.32%-0.03%0.10%0.15%0.34%0.11%-0.13%NZD0.24%-0.12%0.03%0.07%0.26%-0.11%-0.23%CHF0.44%0.11%0.22%0.25%0.46%0.13%0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency analysts at MUFG predict the Euro to recover ground against the Pound Sterling over the coming months, forecasting the Euro-Pound rate will strengthen to 0.8700 as Sterling's recent rally fades and UK political optimism proves difficult to sustain.

The Euro to Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) traded close to 0.85 on Monday after falling to its lowest levels of 2026, leaving the Pound at its strongest against the Euro this year, but MUFG believes the move has gone too far.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP): 0.848625 (-0.18%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.345012 (-0.03%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.14141 (-0.21%)

The Pound has outperformed most major currencies this month after political developments in the UK boosted investor confidence. Reports that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham is likely to appoint a fiscally conservative Chancellor have also helped reduce concerns over the government's economic direction.

MUFG believes those political tailwinds have been an important driver of Sterling's gains, but questions whether they can continue.

"The pound has continued to trade at stronger levels after strengthening sharply in response to media reports surrounding the new government."

The bank argues that markets have already priced in much of the near-term political optimism.

"We are cautious about chasing Sterling strength from current levels."

MUFG also notes that the Euro has been weighed down by higher energy prices and concerns over the regional growth outlook following tensions in the Middle East. However, it expects those headwinds to fade gradually as markets refocus on relative valuations.

"The recent move in EUR/GBP looks overextended."

While MUFG acknowledges that the Bank of England is likely to keep policy relatively restrictive in the near term, it believes expectations for UK growth and fiscal policy have become increasingly optimistic.

"Current market pricing leaves room for EUR/GBP to recover."

Near-Term EUR/GBP Forecast: MUFG Sees Recovery Towards 0.8700 MUFG continues to forecast EUR/GBP rising to 0.8700, implying the Pound will surrender part of its recent gains against the Euro.

"We forecast EUR/GBP at 0.8700."

The bank believes the combination of fading political optimism in the UK, stretched Sterling positioning and a stabilisation in the Eurozone outlook should allow the Euro to recover over the coming months. While the Pound could remain supported in the very near term, MUFG expects gains beyond current levels to prove increasingly difficult to sustain.

EUR/GBP edges higher on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive day as traders cover short positions following the midweek sell-off. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8501 but is still on track for a fourth straight weekly loss.

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP faces persistent downside pressure after breaking below the multi-month support at 0.8600 on July 1, a move that pushed the cross to a one-year low.

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8504 and holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which are clustered between 0.8617 and 0.8688.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.5, just above the oversold threshold of 30, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 31.0 points to a strengthening downtrend.

On the upside, initial resistance appears at 0.8550, followed by the 0.8600 horizontal barrier. Beyond that, the 50-day SMA at 0.8617 and the 100-day SMA at 0.8645 could limit recovery attempts, with the 200-day SMA at 0.8688 acting as a stronger barrier.

On the downside, the next notable support sits at 0.8450. A sustained break below this level could open the door to an extension of the current bearish move.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.20%-0.02%-0.24%0.23%0.11%-0.14%EUR-0.06%0.15%-0.11%-0.33%0.19%0.05%-0.21%GBP-0.20%-0.15%-0.26%-0.49%0.02%-0.08%-0.36%JPY0.02%0.11%0.26%-0.23%0.26%0.12%-0.13%CAD0.24%0.33%0.49%0.23%0.49%0.36%0.10%AUD-0.23%-0.19%-0.02%-0.26%-0.49%-0.15%-0.40%NZD-0.11%-0.05%0.08%-0.12%-0.36%0.15%-0.26%CHF0.14%0.21%0.36%0.13%-0.10%0.40%0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Sterling extended its rally after reports that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham has decided on a fiscally conservative Chancellor. The Pound outperformed broadly, with the strongest gains seen against the Euro and Swiss Franc as both EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF broke out of established technical channels, suggesting investors are beginning to price a more durable revaluation of UK assets rather than merely covering short positions.

The catalyst was a Financial Times report, later corroborated by Reuters, that Burnham has settled on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor of the Exchequer, with one source describing the appointment as “nailed down.” Formal cabinet appointments are expected on Monday when Burnham succeeds Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Although Mahmood has built her political profile primarily on domestic issues rather than economic policymaking, markets appear to be focusing less on her experience than on what her appointment signals about Burnham’s governing philosophy.

Until recently, investors had worried that Burnham, whose political roots lie in Labour’s soft-left tradition and mayoral politics, might pursue a looser fiscal agenda once in office. Those concerns had supported a modest political risk premium in Sterling during the leadership contest. The Makerfield by-election largely removed uncertainty over who would become Prime Minister, but it did not resolve uncertainty over how the new government would govern.

The expected choice of Mahmood appears to answer that question. Compared with Ed Miliband, who had long been viewed as the frontrunner for Chancellor and whose association with expansive industrial and net-zero policies had unsettled parts of the business community, Mahmood is regarded as representing a more centrist and fiscally disciplined approach. Investors are therefore interpreting the appointment as an early indication that fiscal credibility will remain a cornerstone of the new government.

That distinction matters because currency markets generally respond more to expected fiscal settings than political personalities. Expectations of tighter control over public finances improve confidence in the outlook for government borrowing, gilt issuance and longer-term debt sustainability. In that sense, the Chancellor announcement would represent a more concrete market signal than Burnham’s leadership victory itself.

The technical picture reinforces that fundamental shift. EUR/GBP resumed its decline from 0.8863 and broke below its near-term falling channel, indicating that downside momentum is accelerating. The cross is now testing the key 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 (2024 low) to 0.8863 (2025 high) at 0.8466. A sustained break there would strengthen the case for a medium-term move back toward the 2024 low at 0.8221.On the upside, above 0.8543 resistance will bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited below 0.8610 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

GBP/CHF is delivering a similarly constructive signal. The cross has broken above the upper boundary of its rising channel, suggesting that the uptrend is entering a stronger acceleration phase. The next objective lies at 161.8% projection of 1.0281 to 1.0674 from 1.0468 at 1.1104. On the downside, below 1.0801 support will bring consolidations first. But pullback should be contained above 1.0674 resistance turned support to bring another rise.

Together, the technical breakouts across both crosses suggest Sterling’s rally is evolving from a simple unwinding of political uncertainty into a broader repricing of UK fiscal credibility that could extend through the third quarter as Burnham’s cabinet and policy agenda become clearer.

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Exchange Rates UK Research's latest July 2026 survey of leading investment banks suggests the euro is likely to recover some ground against the pound over the next 18 months.

With EUR/GBP currently trading near 0.8534—its lowest levels in around a year—the majority of institutions expect the pair to climb back into the 0.87-0.89 range through 2027.

Only a handful of banks forecast Pound Sterling maintaining its recent outperformance.

Image: EUR/GBP exchange rate forecasts chart- survey results July 2026 Latest Survey Suggests Pound Strength May Be Peaking The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll points to a relatively clear consensus that sterling's recent gains against the euro will become harder to sustain.

Banks including Danske Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, MUFG, SEB, Scotiabank, CIBC, JP Morgan and Rabobank all expect EUR/GBP to trade between 0.88 and 0.90 during 2027.

At the other end of the spectrum, Bank of America is the most bullish on sterling, forecasting EUR/GBP around 0.83-0.84, while Credit Agricole and Pantheon Macro also expect the euro to remain relatively weak.

Overall, however, the survey average points towards a modest recovery in EUR/GBP from current exchange rate levels rather than a continuation of Pound Sterling's strong rally.

That reflects recent market action.

EUR/GBP has fallen steadily over recent months, dropping from above 0.87 in the spring to around 0.853, its weakest level since mid-2025.

The move has been driven by broad sterling strength, with the pound outperforming most major currencies during June and early July.

ECB and Bank of England Outlooks Remain Central The differing forecasts largely reflect uncertainty over how monetary policy will evolve on either side of the Channel.

Pound Sterling has been supported by expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates relatively restrictive as inflation remains elevated, while political uncertainty has eased following recent developments in UK domestic politics.

Meanwhile, the euro continues to receive support from expectations that the European Central Bank could tighten policy further if energy-driven inflation proves more persistent, although policymakers have stressed that future decisions remain highly data dependent.

The result is that many banks now expect the interest-rate gap between the UK and Eurozone to narrow gradually, limiting sterling's ability to extend recent gains.

EUR/GBP Outlook: Survey Points to Euro Recovery, Not Reversal The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests EUR/GBP is more likely to recover gradually than stage a sharp rebound.

Most institutions continue to expect the exchange rate to remain below the long-term averages seen before the inflation shock of 2022, but equally believe current levels underestimate the euro's medium-term prospects.

For businesses and travellers, the survey implies that today's favourable pound-to-euro exchange rate may not be available indefinitely.

If the consensus proves correct, Pound Sterling could surrender part of its recent gains as monetary policy expectations converge and the euro area economy gradually stabilises.

The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.

Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing Iran to implement the MoU agreement and contain the escalation feeds hopes of a negotiated end to the war and is keeping the Euro from dropping further.

Technical Analysis: Potential bearish flag formation

EUR/USD trades at 1.1435, holding within an upward channel, yet with momentum indicators reflecting a lack of a clear bias. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) keeps wavering around the 50 midline, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near zero, altogether hinting at a hesitant market.

Bulls would need to break the top of the last few weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area and preferably the channel top, now around 1.1500, to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the mid-June highs near 1.1620.

A break below Wednesday's lows, at the 1.1390 area, would highlight a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the June 24 low in the 1.1330 area. The flag's measured target is a few pips below the late May 2025 lows, at 1.1210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The story was corrected on July 9 at 08:22 GMT to change the title to EUR/USD Price forecast from the previously written EUR/GBP.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.21%-0.16%0.03%-0.14%-0.63%-0.28%EUR0.16%-0.05%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.43%-0.11%GBP0.21%0.05%0.02%0.24%0.10%-0.39%-0.05%JPY0.16%0.02%-0.02%0.18%0.06%-0.46%-0.11%CAD-0.03%-0.18%-0.24%-0.18%-0.14%-0.63%-0.30%AUD0.14%-0.06%-0.10%-0.06%0.14%-0.48%-0.13%NZD0.63%0.43%0.39%0.46%0.63%0.48%0.34%CHF0.28%0.11%0.05%0.11%0.30%0.13%-0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears contained above 0.8535 yet failing to find acceptance above 0.8650 so far. Price action shows a clear bearish trend, although the bullish divergence evident in the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that sellers might be exhausted.

In the fundamental domain, geopolitical tensions are back in the spotlight as US President Donald Trump called the US-Iran ceasefire to an end. Oil prices have bounced up from recent lows, and risk appetite has vanished, which is weighing on any significant Euro recovery.

European Central Bank (ECB) board member José Luis Escrivá affirmed on Wednesday that the bank should keep all options open but that monetary policy would normally “look through one-off energy price shocks.” The Euro barely moved following Escrivá’s comments.

Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence hints at a potential correction

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548, with price action forming what looks like an ending wedge. Momentum indicators in the four-hour chart hint at a potential correction amid the bullish divergence in RSI (14) studies and the marginally positive reading at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.

Upside attempts, however, remain shallow so far, with bulls holding below the descending trendline from mid-June highs, now around 0.8565, and the July 2 and 3 highs, in the 0.8275 area. On the downside, initial support emerges at the confluence of the one-year lows, at 0.8533, hit on Tuesday, and the wedge bottom, in the 0.8530 area. Further down, the target is the July 2025 lows around 0.8500.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.13%0.24%-0.21%0.13%-0.33%-0.01%EUR-0.05%0.08%0.20%-0.26%0.09%-0.37%-0.06%GBP-0.13%-0.08%0.11%-0.34%-0.01%-0.45%-0.16%JPY-0.24%-0.20%-0.11%-0.45%-0.10%-0.57%-0.27%CAD0.21%0.26%0.34%0.45%0.35%-0.13%0.18%AUD-0.13%-0.09%0.00%0.10%-0.35%-0.46%-0.18%NZD0.33%0.37%0.45%0.57%0.13%0.46%0.29%CHF0.01%0.06%0.16%0.27%-0.18%0.18%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).