AIA Group Ltd boosted its position in shares of EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG – Free Report) by 18.2% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 97,054 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock after acquiring an additional 14,939 shares during the period. AIA Group Ltd’s holdings in EOG Resources were worth $14,031,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other large investors have also added to or reduced their stakes in EOG. Twin Capital Management Inc. raised its stake in EOG Resources by 0.3% during the 1st quarter. Twin Capital Management Inc. now owns 23,980 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock valued at $3,467,000 after purchasing an additional 79 shares during the period. Hardy Reed LLC lifted its holdings in EOG Resources by 3.8% in the 1st quarter. Hardy Reed LLC now owns 2,251 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock worth $325,000 after purchasing an additional 82 shares in the last quarter. Fulton Bank N.A. boosted its stake in EOG Resources by 2.1% in the 1st quarter. Fulton Bank N.A. now owns 4,577 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock worth $662,000 after purchasing an additional 93 shares during the period. Ethos Financial Group LLC boosted its stake in EOG Resources by 2.5% in the 4th quarter. Ethos Financial Group LLC now owns 4,180 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock worth $439,000 after purchasing an additional 100 shares during the period. Finally, NovaPoint Capital LLC grew its holdings in EOG Resources by 0.3% during the 1st quarter. NovaPoint Capital LLC now owns 31,621 shares of the energy exploration company’s stock valued at $4,571,000 after buying an additional 100 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 89.91% of the company’s stock.
EOG Resources Stock Performance EOG Resources stock opened at $139.80 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, a current ratio of 1.72 and a quick ratio of 1.53. The firm has a market capitalization of $74.46 billion, a P/E ratio of 13.76 and a beta of 0.25. EOG Resources, Inc. has a 1-year low of $101.59 and a 1-year high of $151.87. The company’s 50-day moving average is $135.91 and its 200 day moving average is $128.55.
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, May 5th. The energy exploration company reported $3.41 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.23 by $0.18. EOG Resources had a return on equity of 19.25% and a net margin of 23.01%.The company had revenue of $6.92 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $6.18 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $2.87 EPS. EOG Resources’s revenue was up 22.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Research analysts forecast that EOG Resources, Inc. will post 16.19 EPS for the current year.
EOG Resources Dividend Announcement The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, July 31st. Stockholders of record on Friday, July 17th will be given a $1.02 dividend. This represents a $4.08 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.9%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, July 17th. EOG Resources’s payout ratio is presently 40.16%.
Analyst Ratings Changes Several analysts have commented on EOG shares. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $175.00 price target (up from $170.00) on shares of EOG Resources in a research note on Thursday, July 2nd. Weiss Ratings upgraded EOG Resources from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “buy (b-)” rating in a research report on Wednesday, May 13th. Piper Sandler lifted their target price on EOG Resources from $144.00 to $147.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a report on Wednesday, April 1st. Morgan Stanley decreased their target price on EOG Resources from $160.00 to $156.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 26th. Finally, UBS Group dropped their price target on EOG Resources from $168.00 to $158.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, July 2nd. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have issued a Buy rating and sixteen have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $155.04.
Read Our Latest Research Report on EOG Resources
About EOG Resources (Free Report)
EOG Resources, Inc (NYSE: EOG) is an independent exploration and production company headquartered in Houston, Texas. Tracing its corporate origins to Enron Oil & Gas Company in the late 1990s, the company established itself as a stand‑alone E&P operator and has grown into one of the largest U.S. upstream producers. EOG focuses on the exploration, development and production of crude oil, condensate, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
As an upstream-focused company, EOG’s core activities include geologic and geophysical exploration, drilling and completion of wells, reservoir development, and the marketing of hydrocarbon production.
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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider EOG Resources?Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.07 a share, just 25 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 4, 2026.
EOG has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.36%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $5.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.05. EOG Resources is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
EOG is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Talos Energy (TALO - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on August 5, 2026, Talos Energy holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $0.43 a share 26 days from its next quarterly update.
For Talos Energy, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.32 is +35.79%.
EOG and TALO's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
SummaryEOG Resources is upgraded to buy, as the current valuation offers a solid margin of safety amid strong financial health and operational excellence.EOG delivered robust Q1 results, with revenue up 22%, well cost reductions, and $1.49B in free cash flow, supporting solid dividends and buybacks.Despite macro risks and commodity price volatility, EOG's balance sheet strength, disciplined capital allocation, and accretive M&A potential position it for resilience.Current levels indicate a significant margin of safety already priced in, which may still be hard to justify given the company's quality despite macro pressure. mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images
Introduction Back when I last covered EOG Resources (EOG), I downgraded it to a Hold, highlighting how the valuation seemed fair while the macro risks were rising.
With the stock down about 5.5% more than three
3.19K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in EOG over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, could be a great candidate to consider.
When looking at the last two reports, this oil and gas company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 7.13%, on average, in the last two quarters.
For the last reported quarter, EOG Resources came out with earnings of $3.41 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.07 per share, representing a surprise of 11.07%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $2.2 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.27 per share, delivering a surprise of 3.18%.
Price and EPS Surprise
For EOG Resources, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
EOG Resources has an Earnings ESP of +2.77% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on August 4, 2026.
Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.
Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Resources Investor Relations Journalists Agencies Client Login Send a Release News Products Contact , /PRNewswire/ -- EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) will host a conference call and webcast to discuss second quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, at 9 a.m. Central time (10 a.m. Eastern time). Please visit the Investors/Events & Presentations page on the EOG website to access a live webcast of the conference call. If you are unable to listen to the live webcast, a replay will be available for one year.
If you have any questions, please contact Angie Lewis at 713-651-6722.
About EOG
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is one of the largest crude oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the United States with proved reserves in the United States and Trinidad. To learn more visit www.eogresources.com.
Key Takeaways A U.S.-Iran preliminary deal may reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease disrupted oil and gas flows.Oil prices fell sharply after deal news, with WTI crude futures dropping roughly 5% to $76.05.XOM, COP and EOG rely on low-cost, diversified assets to support profitability amid volatility. The United States and Iran have announced a preliminary deal to end the conflict in the Middle East, and a memorandum of understanding is set to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. The signing of the memorandum is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to pass and ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, removing a major bottleneck that had disrupted global oil and gas flows. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint that accounts for nearly one-fifth of the world’s total oil flows.
Strait of Hormuz Set to Reopen: What It Means for Oil MarketsFollowing news of the preliminary deal, oil prices have dropped sharply from the $100 per barrel highs reached in the previous month. According to the data from Yahoo Finance, the West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude futures (July 26) dropped roughly 5% to close at $76.05 per barrel on June 16. The drop in oil prices reflects the easing of the conflict and a step toward normalizing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
While the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to end soon, the energy market crisis may not entirely subside as quickly. The conflict damaged several energy facilities across the Middle East, including refineries and LNG production plants. As a result, Gulf oil and gas production is expected to recover slowly over time. As such, oil prices currently remain well above pre-war levels, and that premium is likely to persist.
Which E&P Stocks Can Weather Oil Price Volatility?Amid this backdrop, will exploration and production players, including Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) , ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) and EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , remain profitable? Let us understand.
ExxonMobil continues to strengthen its production basethrough its most advantaged assets in Guyana and the Permian Basin. In the Permian Basin, the company intends to raise its full-year production from the prolific basin to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels through the remainder of 2026. In Guyana, the company is advancing several projects at the Stabroek Block, including Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead. This is expected to further increase its production levels in Guyana.
ExxonMobil’s advantaged upstream assets are characterized by a lower emissions profile and low cost of production. This is expected to keep its upstream business profitable amid volatility in the commodity pricing scenario.
ConocoPhillips has a diversified asset base spanning 14 countries worldwide. Notably, the energy firm’s assets in the U.S. Lower 48 are spread across major shale basins, including the Delaware Basin, Midland Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale. These assets offer deep, durable and capital-efficient drilling inventory and contributed to the majority of its consolidated liquids production. COP’s overall production also includes oil-sands assets in Canada and conventional assets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, which support low-cost operations. The company’s high-quality, low-cost portfolio of assets makes it resilient to volatility in oil prices and enables it to generate strong cash flows.
EOG Resources boasts a diversified production profile aided by a multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas assets. The company's core producing regions include the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Utica, Dorado gas play, Powder River Basin and Williston Basin, providing significant operational flexibility and commodity diversification. Management has highlighted that the Encino acquisition increased oil production by approximately 10%, while the company's long-term production growth has added nearly 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, more than 140,000 Bpd of NGLs and almost 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas since early 2022. EOG has a balanced production mix, which should enable the company to generate steady returns across commodity cycles and support strong free cash flow generation.
XOM, COP and EOG each carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
TORONTO, ON / ACCESS Newswire / June 18, 2026 / Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. (AIM:ECO)(TSXV:EOG), the oil and gas exploration company focused on the offshore Atlantic Margins, is pleased to announce a mid-year update on the progress of its various workstreams across its portfolio in Namibia, Guyana, the Falkland Islands, and South Africa.
Growth stocks are attractive to many investors, as above-average financial growth helps these stocks easily grab the market's attention and produce exceptional returns. However, it isn't easy to find a great growth stock.
That's because, these stocks usually carry above-average risk and volatility. In fact, betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss.
However, the task of finding cutting-edge growth stocks is made easy with the help of the Zacks Growth Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which looks beyond the traditional growth attributes to analyze a company's real growth prospects.
EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) is on the list of such stocks currently recommended by our proprietary system. In addition to a favorable Growth Score, it carries a top Zacks Rank.
Research shows that stocks carrying the best growth features consistently beat the market. And returns are even better for stocks that possess the combination of a Growth Score of A or B and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy).
While there are numerous reasons why the stock of this oil and gas company is a great growth pick right now, we have highlighted three of the most important factors below:
Earnings GrowthArguably nothing is more important than earnings growth, as surging profit levels is what most investors are after. And for growth investors, double-digit earnings growth is definitely preferable, and often an indication of strong prospects (and stock price gains) for the company under consideration.
While the historical EPS growth rate for EOG Resources is 7.8%, investors should actually focus on the projected growth. The company's EPS is expected to grow 45.8% this year, crushing the industry average, which calls for EPS growth of 45%.
Impressive Asset Utilization RatioAsset utilization ratio -- also known as sales-to-total-assets (S/TA) ratio -- is often overlooked by investors, but it is an important indicator in growth investing. This metric exhibits how efficiently a firm is utilizing its assets to generate sales.
Right now, EOG Resources has an S/TA ratio of 0.47, which means that the company gets $0.47 in sales for each dollar in assets. Comparing this to the industry average of 0.36, it can be said that the company is more efficient.
While the level of efficiency in generating sales matters a lot, so does the sales growth of a company. And EOG Resources is well positioned from a sales growth perspective too. The company's sales are expected to grow 21.5% this year versus the industry average of 7.6%.
Promising Earnings Estimate RevisionsBeyond the metrics outlined above, investors should consider the trend in earnings estimate revisions. A positive trend is a plus here. Empirical research shows that there is a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
The current-year earnings estimates for EOG Resources have been revising upward. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has surged 15.1% over the past month.
Bottom LineEOG Resources has not only earned a Growth Score of B based on a number of factors, including the ones discussed above, but it also carries a Zacks Rank #1 because of the positive earnings estimate revisions.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
This combination positions EOG Resources well for outperformance, so growth investors may want to bet on it.
Resources Investor Relations Journalists Agencies Client Login Send a Release News Products Contact , /PRNewswire/ -- EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is scheduled to present at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference at 10:00 a.m. Central time (11:00 a.m. Eastern time) on Wednesday, May 27. Ezra Y. Yacob, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will present on behalf of EOG.
Please visit the Investors/Events & Presentations page on the EOG website to access live webcasts and any available replays for up to one year.
About EOG
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is one of the largest crude oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the United States with proved reserves in the United States and Trinidad. To learn more visit www.eogresources.com.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
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As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, EOG Resources Inc. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. While the company maintains operations in the United States and Trinidad, the vast majority of its activities are concentrated across oil-rich resource plays in the United States.
EOG is a #2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. EOG has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 0.4% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2026, eight analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $5.33 to $14.76 per share. EOG boasts an average earnings surprise of +7.7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, EOG should be on investors' short list.
This dividend growth portfolio optimizes for payout ratios, EBITDA yield, and dividend growth, focusing on Dow Dividend 100 constituents. EOG Resources, Comcast, and Accenture receive the highest portfolio weights based on a multi-factor scoring system. The weighted portfolio offers a 3.28% forward dividend yield and a 12.4% five-year dividend CAGR.
For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
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Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, EOG Resources Inc. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. While the company maintains operations in the United States and Trinidad, the vast majority of its activities are concentrated across oil-rich resource plays in the United States.
EOG is a #2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of B thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 9.14; value investors should take notice.
Eight analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $5.33 to $14.76 per share. EOG also boasts an average earnings surprise of +7.7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, EOG should be on investors' short list.
EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given a notable revision in the company's earnings estimates. While the stock has been gaining lately, the trend might continue since its earnings outlook is still improving.
The upward trend in estimate revisions for this oil and gas company reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. This insight is at the core of our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank.
The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.
For EOG Resources, there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising earnings estimates, which has helped push consensus estimates considerably higher for the next quarter and full year.
The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Current-Quarter Estimate RevisionsThe earnings estimate of $4.08 per share for the current quarter represents a change of +75.9% from the number reported a year ago.
Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG Resources has increased 5.58% because four estimates have moved higher compared to no negative revisions.
Current-Year Estimate RevisionsFor the full year, the earnings estimate of $14.83 per share represents a change of +46.0% from the year-ago number.
In terms of estimate revisions, the trend for the current year also appears quite encouraging for EOG Resources. Over the past month, six estimates have moved higher compared to one negative revision, helping the consensus estimate increase 10.88%.
Favorable Zacks RankThe promising estimate revisions have helped EOG Resources earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.
Bottom LineEOG Resources shares have added 9.2% over the past four weeks, suggesting that investors are betting on its impressive estimate revisions. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away to benefit from its earnings growth prospects.
Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) , a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. EOG Resources currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of "A or B" outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for EOG that show why this oil and gas company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.
For EOG, shares are up 7.87% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is up 2.68% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 8.96% compares favorably with the industry's 2.56% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of EOG Resources have increased 16.65% over the past quarter, and have gained 28.18% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 7.46% and 24.67%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to EOG's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. EOG is currently averaging 3,607,223 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with EOG.
Over the past two months, 8 earnings estimates moved higher compared to 1 lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost EOG's consensus estimate, increasing from $10.48 to $14.83 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 9 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that EOG is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep EOG Resources on your short list.
Here are three stocks with buy rank and strong income characteristics for investors to consider today, May 21:
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD - Free Report) : This technology and data-driven company witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 6.6% the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 9.1%, compared with the industry average of 1.8%.
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) : This oil and gas company has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 41.5% the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 2.8%, compared with the industry average of 0.0%.
Arko Corp. (ARKO - Free Report) : This retail convenience store company has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 11.5% in the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 1.7%, compared with the industry average of 0.0%.
See the full list of top ranked stocks here.
Find more top income stocks with some of our great premium screens.
EOG Resources is positioned for stellar 2026 performance, driven by elevated oil prices and minimal hedging, enabling full upside capture. EOG expects to generate $8.5 billion in free cash flow in 2026, up from $4.8 billion in 2025, supporting robust shareholder returns. Management prioritizes aggressive share buybacks over special dividends, enhancing per-share metrics and enabling sustainable dividend growth.
EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.
The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Individual investors often find it hard to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, since these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time. In these situations, the Zacks rating system comes in handy because of the power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements.
Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for EOG Resources basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock PricesThe change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. That's partly because of the influence of institutional investors that use earnings and earnings estimates for calculating the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.
For EOG Resources, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate RevisionsEmpirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Earnings Estimate Revisions for EOG ResourcesThis oil and gas company is expected to earn $15.40 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2026, which represents no year-over-year change.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for EOG Resources. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 67.3%.
Bottom LineUnlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of "buy" and "sell" ratings for its entire universe of more than 4,000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a "Strong Buy" rating and the next 15% get a "Buy" rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here >>>
The upgrade of EOG Resources to a Zacks Rank #1 positions it in the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
Resources Investor Relations Journalists Agencies Client Login Send a Release News Products Contact , /PRNewswire/ -- EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is scheduled to present at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference at 7:35 a.m. Central time (8:35 a.m. Eastern time) on Tuesday, June 23. Jeffrey R. Leitzell, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, will present on behalf of EOG.
Please visit the Investors/Events & Presentations page on the EOG website to access live webcasts and any available replays for up to one year.
About EOG
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is one of the largest crude oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the United States with proved reserves in the United States and Trinidad. To learn more visit www.eogresources.com.
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is EOG Resources due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
EOG Q1 Earnings Beat EstimatesEOG Resources posted adjusted earnings of $3.41 per share in the first quarter of 2026, up 18.8% from the year-ago level of $2.87. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of $3.07 by 11.1%.
Total revenues of $6.92 billion increased 22.1% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $6.3 billion.
Strong quarterly results were supported by higher production, with total crude-oil-equivalent volumes averaging 1,383.8 MBoe/d in the quarter, reflecting strong production execution.
EOG Profitability Gains Reflect Higher Output
EOG Resources showed solid leverage to production growth. Net income was $2 billion, translating to reported earnings of $3.70 per share, while adjusted net income was $1.8 billion. Income taxes totaled $575 million, implying an effective tax rate of 22.5% in the period.
Cost control helped keep the earnings flow-through intact even as activity remained elevated. Lease and well expenses were $462 million, and depreciation, depletion and amortization was $1.19 billion. For investors, the quarter reinforced that EOG’s earnings power is being driven by a combination of operating scale and steady expense execution.
EOG Resources Mix Skews Toward Crude & Marketing
EOG Resources’ top-line composition highlighted the importance of product and midstream-linked contributions. Revenues from crude oil and condensate were $3.58 billion, while natural gas liquids generated $664 million and natural gas contributed $1.02 billion. In total, revenues from sales of crude oil and condensate, NGLs, and natural gas were $5.26 billion.
The company also recorded $1.50 billion in gathering, processing and marketing revenues, which can add variability to reported revenues, depending on volumes and market conditions. Other items included $113 million in gains on mark-to-market derivative contracts and $31 million in gains on asset dispositions, helping round out operating revenues during the quarter.
EOG Volume & Price Data Point to Liquids’ Strength
EOG delivered a clear year-over-year step-up in liquids volumes. Crude oil and condensate volumes rose to 548.5 MBbld from 502.1 MBbld in the year-ago quarter. Natural gas liquids volumes increased to 332.1 MBbld from 241.7 MBbld, while natural gas volumes climbed to 3,020 MMcfd from 2,080 MMcfd.
Realized pricing provided added support on the liquids side. Composite crude oil and condensate pricing averaged $72.47 per barrel versus $72.87 a year ago, while NGL pricing averaged $22.20 per barrel compared with $26.29. Natural gas pricing improved to $3.76 per Mcf from $3.41, reflecting a stronger gas price environment than the prior-year quarter.
EOG Resources Cash Generation Fuels Returns
EOG Resources’ cash profile remained a core pillar of the quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.97 billion, while capital expenditure was $1.64 billion. That spread drove free cash flow of $1.49 billion, underscoring the company’s ability to self-fund its program and still return meaningful capital.
Shareholder returns remained active. EOG declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share and paid out $544 million in regular dividends in the quarter. It also repurchased 3.2 million shares for $402 million at an average purchase price of $125 per share, ending the period with $2.9 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization.
EOG Guidance Reallocates Capital Toward Liquids
Management’s forward view emphasized portfolio flexibility. For the second quarter of 2026, EOG guided total crude-oil-equivalent volumes to 1,368.8-1,413.8 MBoed, with crude oil and condensate volumes expected at 546-551 MBod. For 2026, the total crude-oil-equivalent volume is projected at 1,373.7-1,418.7 MBoed, while crude oil and condensate volumes are guided at 546-551 MBod.
Capital spending remains anchored. The company reiterated a 2026 capital expenditure plan of $6.3-$6.7 billion. On pricing assumptions embedded in guidance, EOG expects U.S. crude oil and condensate realizations to average $2.25-$4.25 above WTI for the full year, while U.S. natural gas realizations are expected to run $1.30 below Henry Hub to 70 cents above, reflecting a planning posture that leans into liquids while managing near-term gas softness.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 12.48% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresAt this time, EOG Resources has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, EOG Resources has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: EOG Resources (EOG - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, EOG Resources, Inc. is an independent exploration and production company focused on crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas. The company’s operations are primarily in the United States, with additional activity in Trinidad and select other international areas.
EOG is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. EOG has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 7.6% over the past four weeks.
Nine analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $3.01 to $15.99 per share. EOG also boasts an average earnings surprise of +7.7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, EOG should be on investors' short list.
If you put $10,000 into the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) on the last trading day of 2025 and forgot about it, you would be sitting on roughly $13,131 as of the June 8 close. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 would be worth about $10,840. Energy, the sector everyone wrote off as a value trap stuck behind the AI trade, is up about 31% year to date against 8.4% for SPY. That gap, almost 23 points in five months, is the single most surprising scoreboard in the 2026 market.
The headline you may have seen says 29%. The actual number is a touch better. XLE opened the year at $44.42 and closed Monday at $58.33. Over one year, the fund is up about 44%, versus roughly 23% for SPY. Over five years, it has more than doubled, up about 152%. The fund is a plain-vanilla SPDR with a fee that rounds to almost nothing, and it does one thing well, which is concentrate your money in a handful of the biggest US oil and gas names. Top of the book is heavy. Exxon at 23.7% and Chevron at 17.6% together are 41.3% of the fund. Add ConocoPhillips and EOG and you have most of the explanation.
What Actually Did the Work The mechanism is straightforward. Sector concentration met a sector-specific catalyst, and the catalyst is geopolitics. According to the EIA, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since late February following military action, removing access to a corridor that carried nearly 20% of global oil supply. Brent went vertical. Daily spot prices touched $138 per barrel on April 7, the highest since the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the April monthly average came in around $117 per barrel. WTI followed, with the YTD high at $114.58 on the same day.
Prices have since cooled. Brent printed $98.29 on June 1 and WTI sat at $95.96, which the St. Louis Fed places in the 82.8th percentile of its trailing 12-month range. That is the important part. Even after a meaningful pullback, crude is trading well above where the integrated majors built their 2026 budgets. The 12-month WTI average is $72.26, and current spot is more than $20 above it.
Now look at how the top holdings translated that into earnings. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) posted adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus a $1.01 consensus, a 15% beat and the fourth straight. Underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion year over year, even after roughly $3.88 billion in unfavorable derivative timing and $706 million in Middle East supply-disruption losses washed through the GAAP line. CEO Darren Woods told investors that "ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, built to perform through disruption and across market cycles." The buyback authorization for the year is $20 billion. The stock is up 27.8% YTD.
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) did even better at the EPS line, with $1.41 versus $0.97 expected, a 46% beat and the sixth in a row. Production jumped 15% year over year to 3,858 MBOED as the Hess deal bedded in, and US output cleared 2 million barrels per day for a third straight quarter. The company returned $2.5 billion in buybacks in the quarter, raised the dividend for a 39th consecutive year, and Mike Wirth framed the result as evidence that the portfolio held up "despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions." Shares are up about 27% YTD.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), the two big E&P names in the top ten, told a parallel story with a different texture. COP beat by roughly 12% on EPS, kept its target of returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders, and pulled Qatar out of 2026 production guidance because of the Middle East situation. EOG benefited from the Encino acquisition, pushing production to 1,383.8 MBoed from 1,090.4 a year earlier and revenue up about 18% to $6.92 billion. EOG is the standout performer of the four, up about 36% YTD, with COP up 28.9%.
The pattern is clean. Three years of M&A (Hess into Chevron, Marathon into ConocoPhillips, Encino into EOG) finished integrating just as Brent prices spiked. The synergies are real, the cost work is real, and the capital return engines kept running on schedule. Then a Middle East shock dropped onto the top line. That is how a sector ETF turns a single-digit broad market into a 31% mover.
The Soft Patch Inside the Run The recent tape complicates the story a little. XLE is up only about 5% over the last month, and crude has been the reason. WTI has fallen from a May peak near $112 to $96, and natural gas has gone in the other direction entirely, with Henry Hub dropping from a January 23 spike of $30.72 per MMBtu to $3.07 on June 1. The EIA now expects Henry Hub to average $2.83 per MMBtu in Q2 2026, 11% below Q2 2025. So one of the two commodities driving the rally is rolling over. The other has slipped about 16% off its high but is still pricing a risk premium.
What You Watch From Here The forward look hinges on two indicators a reader can actually track. The first is the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA’s May STEO assumes Brent averages around $106 per barrel in May and June, then steps down to $89 in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as shut-in production gradually returns. If tanker traffic genuinely resumes, the risk premium that built XLE’s YTD comes out of the price, and the integrated names re-rate toward a $75 to $85 crude backdrop rather than $95 to $100. The second is OPEC spare capacity, which the EIA now models at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2027, down from a prior estimate of 3.8 million. Less cushion in the system means the next disruption hits harder, which is the structural reason this trade has a longer half-life than a typical war-premium spike.
Retail is starting to notice. Reddit sentiment on XLE has run 76 to 80 (bullish to very bullish) over the past several days, anchored by a single WSB post titled "You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability." Mention volume is still low, which is usually how these trades work before they get crowded. The Exxon news cycle, with retail flagging "Exxon warns oil inventories near record lows, price spike ahead" as the top driver on June 1, suggests the inventory tightness narrative is still doing work.
The honest read is that XLE’s YTD is mostly a Hormuz trade wearing the costume of an earnings story. The earnings are genuine, the cost work is genuine, and the capital returns are durable. But the marginal dollar in the price came from a tanker chokepoint, and the EIA, the futures curve, and the integrated CEOs themselves are all guiding to a lower oil price in 2027. If the strait reopens cleanly, the broad market starts closing the gap. If it does not, or if the next disruption arrives before the first one resolves, the sector that has refused to quit in 2026 keeps doing exactly that. Watch Hormuz traffic, watch the Brent curve, and watch whether WTI holds the $90 line. That is the whole game from here.
If you put $10,000 into the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) on the last trading day of 2025 and forgot about it, you would be sitting on roughly $13,131 as of the June 8 close. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 would be worth about $10,840. Energy, the sector everyone wrote off as a value trap stuck behind the AI trade, is up about 31% year to date against 8.4% for SPY. That gap, almost 23 points in five months, is the single most surprising scoreboard in the 2026 market.
The headline you may have seen says 29%. The actual number is a touch better. XLE opened the year at $44.42 and closed Monday at $58.33. Over one year, the fund is up about 44%, versus roughly 23% for SPY. Over five years, it has more than doubled, up about 152%. The fund is a plain-vanilla SPDR with a fee that rounds to almost nothing, and it does one thing well, which is concentrate your money in a handful of the biggest US oil and gas names. Top of the book is heavy. Exxon at 23.7% and Chevron at 17.6% together are 41.3% of the fund. Add ConocoPhillips and EOG and you have most of the explanation.
What Actually Did the Work The mechanism is straightforward. Sector concentration met a sector-specific catalyst, and the catalyst is geopolitics. According to the EIA, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since late February following military action, removing access to a corridor that carried nearly 20% of global oil supply. Brent went vertical. Daily spot prices touched $138 per barrel on April 7, the highest since the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the April monthly average came in around $117 per barrel. WTI followed, with the YTD high at $114.58 on the same day.
Prices have since cooled. Brent printed $98.29 on June 1 and WTI sat at $95.96, which the St. Louis Fed places in the 82.8th percentile of its trailing 12-month range. That is the important part. Even after a meaningful pullback, crude is trading well above where the integrated majors built their 2026 budgets. The 12-month WTI average is $72.26, and current spot is more than $20 above it.
Now look at how the top holdings translated that into earnings. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) posted adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus a $1.01 consensus, a 15% beat and the fourth straight. Underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion year over year, even after roughly $3.88 billion in unfavorable derivative timing and $706 million in Middle East supply-disruption losses washed through the GAAP line. CEO Darren Woods told investors that "ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, built to perform through disruption and across market cycles." The buyback authorization for the year is $20 billion. The stock is up 27.8% YTD.
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) did even better at the EPS line, with $1.41 versus $0.97 expected, a 46% beat and the sixth in a row. Production jumped 15% year over year to 3,858 MBOED as the Hess deal bedded in, and US output cleared 2 million barrels per day for a third straight quarter. The company returned $2.5 billion in buybacks in the quarter, raised the dividend for a 39th consecutive year, and Mike Wirth framed the result as evidence that the portfolio held up "despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions." Shares are up about 27% YTD.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), the two big E&P names in the top ten, told a parallel story with a different texture. COP beat by roughly 12% on EPS, kept its target of returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders, and pulled Qatar out of 2026 production guidance because of the Middle East situation. EOG benefited from the Encino acquisition, pushing production to 1,383.8 MBoed from 1,090.4 a year earlier and revenue up about 18% to $6.92 billion. EOG is the standout performer of the four, up about 36% YTD, with COP up 28.9%.
The pattern is clean. Three years of M&A (Hess into Chevron, Marathon into ConocoPhillips, Encino into EOG) finished integrating just as Brent prices spiked. The synergies are real, the cost work is real, and the capital return engines kept running on schedule. Then a Middle East shock dropped onto the top line. That is how a sector ETF turns a single-digit broad market into a 31% mover.
The Soft Patch Inside the Run The recent tape complicates the story a little. XLE is up only about 5% over the last month, and crude has been the reason. WTI has fallen from a May peak near $112 to $96, and natural gas has gone in the other direction entirely, with Henry Hub dropping from a January 23 spike of $30.72 per MMBtu to $3.07 on June 1. The EIA now expects Henry Hub to average $2.83 per MMBtu in Q2 2026, 11% below Q2 2025. So one of the two commodities driving the rally is rolling over. The other has slipped about 16% off its high but is still pricing a risk premium.
What You Watch From Here The forward look hinges on two indicators a reader can actually track. The first is the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA’s May STEO assumes Brent averages around $106 per barrel in May and June, then steps down to $89 in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as shut-in production gradually returns. If tanker traffic genuinely resumes, the risk premium that built XLE’s YTD comes out of the price, and the integrated names re-rate toward a $75 to $85 crude backdrop rather than $95 to $100. The second is OPEC spare capacity, which the EIA now models at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2027, down from a prior estimate of 3.8 million. Less cushion in the system means the next disruption hits harder, which is the structural reason this trade has a longer half-life than a typical war-premium spike.
Retail is starting to notice. Reddit sentiment on XLE has run 76 to 80 (bullish to very bullish) over the past several days, anchored by a single WSB post titled "You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability." Mention volume is still low, which is usually how these trades work before they get crowded. The Exxon news cycle, with retail flagging "Exxon warns oil inventories near record lows, price spike ahead" as the top driver on June 1, suggests the inventory tightness narrative is still doing work.
The honest read is that XLE’s YTD is mostly a Hormuz trade wearing the costume of an earnings story. The earnings are genuine, the cost work is genuine, and the capital returns are durable. But the marginal dollar in the price came from a tanker chokepoint, and the EIA, the futures curve, and the integrated CEOs themselves are all guiding to a lower oil price in 2027. If the strait reopens cleanly, the broad market starts closing the gap. If it does not, or if the next disruption arrives before the first one resolves, the sector that has refused to quit in 2026 keeps doing exactly that. Watch Hormuz traffic, watch the Brent curve, and watch whether WTI holds the $90 line. That is the whole game from here.
