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Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Everest Group (EG - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 29, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis reinsurance company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $14.59 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -16%.

Revenues are expected to be $4.09 billion, down 9% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.14% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Everest Group?For Everest Group, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.67%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Everest Group will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Everest Group would post earnings of $14.03 per share when it actually produced earnings of $16.08, delivering a surprise of +14.61%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Everest Group appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry, Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.88 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +57.1%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $370.8 million, up 41.7% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. has been revised 6.3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +7.43%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Key Takeaways EG's net investment income delivered a 27% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, reflecting sustained portfolio growth. NII rose 15.5% year over year in first-quarter 2026, driven by fixed income and alternative investments. Growing insurance float, higher reinvestment yields, and disciplined portfolio management support earnings. Everest Group, Ltd. (EG - Free Report) has become one of the major beneficiaries of the higher interest rate environment, with net investment income (NII) serving as an increasingly important contributor to earnings alongside its insurance and reinsurance underwriting operations.

NII has become an increasingly valuable component of Everest Group's earnings profile. The combination of a growing insurance float, disciplined investment management, and a higher-yield investment environment strengthens the company's ability to generate consistent profits, complementing its underwriting performance and supporting long-term shareholder value creation.

A significant portion of the investment portfolio consists of fixed income securities, and smaller portions consist of equity securities and other investments, such as limited partnerships and other alternative investments. The metric should continue to gain from an increase in limited partnership income, higher income from fixed maturity investments, an increase in income from other alternative investments, higher income from short-term investments, and cash.

The insurer’s investment income has shown continuous improvement. The metric has delivered a five-year (2020-2025) CAGR of 27%. 
NII increased 15.5% year over year for the three months ended March 31, 2026, largely driven by strong alternative asset returns, fixed income portfolio growth, and strong limited partnership returns.

EG's net investment income is primarily driven by the growth of its investment portfolio, higher reinvestment yields in a higher-rate environment, expanding insurance float, and disciplined portfolio management.

NII significantly boosts top-line growth and overall profitability for EG, complementing the company's underwriting operations. While insurance premiums are the primary source of revenue, NII provides a recurring stream of earnings generated from investing the company's insurance float and shareholders' capital.

What About Other Insurers?Chubb Limited's (CB - Free Report) net investment income is an important earnings contributor. The metric benefits from higher interest rates and stronger portfolio yields, providing a steady source of earnings beyond underwriting profits. This helps improve profitability, offset claim volatility and strengthen overall financial performance.

The Travelers Companies, Inc.’s (TRV - Free Report) net investment income is a material contributor to the company’s results of operations, consistently providing a reliable source of earnings that complements its underwriting activities. Net investment income acts as a second earnings engine for this property and casualty insurer after underwriting profit. Thus, even if underwriting profit weakens because of higher catastrophe losses, solid net investment income can help offset earnings pressure.

EG’s Price PerformanceShares of EG have gained 1.8% in the past year, outperforming the industry.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

EG’s UndervaluationThe stock is overvalued compared with its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-book value multiple of 0.89, lower than the industry average of 2.78. It carries a Value Score of A.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimate Movement for EGThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for EG’s second-quarter 2026 and third-quarter 2026 EPS has moved down 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the past 30 days. The same for full-year 2026 EPS has moved up 0.9% in the past 30 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research