Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

'Not a Dent or a Scratch'—How Strategy Defies Naysayers in the Bitcoin Bear Market

A massive, "everything bubble" will burst in 2025, resulting in a crash and possibly a depression.

“I can tell you one thing: bubbles never, ever end well. There’s no way to go from [an] extreme bubble and have a soft landing. Now, that’s what seems to be happening right now, and we’ll see. But I tell people, give [it until] 2025,” Dent told Fox News Digital. 

The Details: Dent said the current market rally, which has sent Bitcoin and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) to new all-time highs following the election of Donald Trump, will not last long.

Wall Street and retail investors are  “going along” with the post-election rally, but Dent said being in the current market is like being on the Titanic. 

“When everybody gets on the boat, that's when the Titanic sinks,” he said. “So I think everybody’s in the boat about now.”

Read Next: Sustainable Investment Under Trump: ‘Performance Matters Far More Than Politics,’ JPMorgan Analyst Says

The economist expects Trump’s fiscal policies will not be enough to prevent a cyclical crash because the underlying economic issues are tied more to private debt than federal debt.

Dent estimates that total private sector debt in the U.S. is around $630 trillion and growing at a rate five times faster than global gross domestic product. The “trillion-dollar question” is when the downturn begins, and Dent predicts a crash in mid-2025. 

“So I think the next few years is likely to be ugly. The question mark is, when does the darn thing start?” Dent said. “I think the central banks know this better than anybody. They just can’t say it because they don’t want to scare anybody.”

“Bitcoin, I see going up to $800,000 to $1 million by 2037 to ’40. So I’ve got a long way to go," Dent said. 

Read Next: 

Bitcoin Miners Hive Digital, Hut 8, Bitfarms To Report Earnings As Future Of Crypto ‘Has Never Been Brighter’ Image: Eivind Pedersen from Pixabay

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range for the past few weeks, failing to steady above the $100,000 mark since the beginning of the year. 

According to a crypto analyst, this price stagnation could be attributed to the significant decline in Bitcoin network activity. 

Bitcoin Sees Decline in Network ActivityIn a recent report, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_Dent found that the decline in activity on the Bitcoin network is responsible for its price consolidation in recent weeks. 

Dent assessed Bitcoin’s active address count and found that a “death cross” has formed between its 30-day moving average (30DMA) and the 365-day moving average (365DMA), signaling a slowdown in market activity. 

This pattern suggests that short-term investor engagement is waning as the shorter-term trend (30DMA) dips below the longer-term trend (365DMA). This points to a decrease in trading and participation on the network over the near term.

“Historically, similar patterns in Active Addresses have often coincided with bearish market conditions, making this a potentially negative indicator,” he explained.

Bitcoin Network Activity. Source: CryptoQuantAs expected, the decline in active address count on the Bitcoin network has impacted the daily transaction count on the Layer-1 blockchain. Per Dent’s report, “transaction count has been declining since Q4 2024, further reinforcing the likelihood of mid- to long-term market stagnation.”

BTC Price Prediction: Bullish Setup Could Trigger Price Surge Above $102,000 Since December 19, Bitcoin has faced resistance at $102,722 and found support at $91,431. An assessment of its moving average convergence divergence (MACD) hints at a potential break above the resistance in the near term. At press time, the coin’s MACD line (blue) rests above its signal line (orange).

BTC MACD. Source: TradingViewThis indicator measures an asset’s price trends and momentum and identifies its potential buy or sell signals. When it is set up this way, bullish momentum is strengthening. It suggests that buying pressure is increasing and that BTC’s price could surge. 

A succesful break above the $102,722 resistance level would propel BTC’s price toward its all-time high of $108,230. 

BTC Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewA failed attempt to breach this resistance could send it toward support at $91,431. If the bulls fail to defend this level, BTC’s price could drop to $86,531.

Worst Q1 for BTC price since 2018: 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Shiba Inu has witnessed a dramatic spike in its burn rate over the past 24 hours, according to data from Shiba Inu burn tracker Shibburn.com. The total number of tokens sent to burn addresses surged by over 1,800% during this period, marking one of the most notable increases in recent weeks. 

The spike in SHIB burns is coming as the Shiba Inu price is attempting to stabilize above the $0.000013 price level. However, despite the short-term surge in token burning, the scale of the burn is insignificant when placed beside the meme coin’s massive total supply.

Shiba Inu Burn Activity Spikes Suddenly Data from Shiba Inu burn tracker Shibburn shows that 4,578,466 SHIB tokens were sent to burn addresses in the past 24 hours, which represents a 1869% increase from the previous 24-hour timeframe. Interestingly, the majority of the tokens burned in the latest cycle came from just two large transactions.

The first involved the movement of 3,295,542 SHIB tokens to a designated burn wallet known as CA. Two hours later, a second transaction saw another 1,173,708 tokens sent into a separate address labeled BA-2. 

Source: Chart from Shibburn On-chain data links both transactions to a wallet identified as “0xa9d1,” which is tied to the Coinbase10 label. This means that the burns may have been executed by a user on the Coinbase crypto exchange. Combined, the two burns amounted to 4,469,520 SHIB tokens and were primarily responsible for the 1,869% jump in the daily burn rate.

Shiba Inu’s Large Supply Still Far Ahead Although the number of SHIB burned in the past 24 hours is a lot, it is actually small compared to the amount of SHIB burned during periods of high activity surrounding Shiba Inu. Also, it barely makes a dent in the circulating supply of Shiba Inu. 

The numbers show a 1,800% spike in 24 hours, but the impact of the burn is somewhat negligible in the grand scheme of SHIB’s supply structure. Shiba Inu was created with a total supply of 999.9 trillion SHIB tokens. Of this total supply, 410.7 trillion SHIB has been burned and removed from circulation, meaning there are still 589.9 trillion SHIB in total supply. 

Out of this total supply, only 4.7 trillion SHIB tokens are currently staked, meaning that there are presently about 584.5 trillion SHIB tokens in circulation. When placed next to such a massive figure, the 4.58 million burned in the past 24 hours is barely noticeable both numerically and in terms of price effect. For SHIB’s supply to reduce meaningfully enough to influence price over time, far larger and more sustained burns would need to occur.

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading at $0.00001272, down by 4.9% in the past 24 hours.

SHIB trading at $0.000012 on the 1D chart | Source: SHIBUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Aug 13, 2025, 11:15 a.m.

10 min read

Cryptocurrencies rallied with a U.S. September rate cut still seen likely. (Dan Thornberg/Shutterstock)Summary

You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will arrive in your inbox at 7 a.m. ET to kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you're not already subscribed, click here. You won't want to start your day without it.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Two years ago, I posted on X that the new normal for U.S. inflation in the post-COVID world is much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The market’s reaction to Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. core CPI report suggests a growing number of investors now share that view.

The data for July showed that annualized core CPI topped the 3% mark for the first time, primarily due to the effects of President Trump's tariffs. The Fed has only once cut interest rates when core inflation was above 3%.

Even so, bitcoin BTC$61,579.60 rose by over 1% on Wednesday, and ether, often envisaged as an internet bond, jumped by over 8%. U.S. stocks also rallied as traders seemingly disregarded the inflation number and continued to price in a September rate cut.

This dynamic suggests that the 2% inflation target is likely dead. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said Tuesday that the Fed should consider a 50 basis-point cut in September.

This scenario is bullish for assets with inflation-hedge appeal, such as bitcoin and gold, as it implies that central banks are willing to overlook higher inflation to cut rates.

BTC recently traded near $120,000, while gold remained lackluster between $3,300 and $3,400. Several alternative cryptocurrencies posted gains in excess of 10% as retail investors flocked to cheaper coins.

"Bitcoin's current rally reveals a structural shift in crypto market participation that could define this cycle," Will K, CEO of decentralized trading platform VOOI and Co-Founder of Symbiosis.Finance, told CoinDesk. "While institutions gained exposure through ETFs, retail traders are quietly returning to DeFi platforms that have removed previous barriers to entry."

This dual-sided crypto adoption has changed the market composition, where institutional capital flows through regulated products and sophisticated retail re-engages through evolved decentralized infrastructure.

"Traders are no longer choosing between traditional and decentralized markets, they're using both simultaneously," K said.

Speaking of adoption, USDC issuer Circle unveiled its stablecoin-focused layer 1 blockchain, Arc. The blockchain focus on financial transactions: payments, currency exchange and capital markets. Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma completed a $1.5 billion registered direct offering and private placement led by World Liberty Financial.

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The continued decline supports easing of financial conditions and increased risk-taking in financial markets. Stay alert!

What to WatchCryptoAug. 13, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Bullish, the parent company of Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, begin trading on the NYSE under ticker BLSH. The shares were priced at $37 each, with 30 million on offer to raise $1.1 billion and value the company near $5.4 billion.Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.MacroAug. 13: A series of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, apply pressure on Russia and discuss peace talks.Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July consumer price inflation data.Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.6% vs. Prev. 39.4%Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July producer price inflation data.Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru's central bank announces its monetary policy decision.Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador's Statistics and Census Office, which is part of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July consumer price inflation data.Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%Aug. 15: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the ongoing war in Ukraine.Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-marketAug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-marketAug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12Token EventsGovernance votes & callsCompound DAO is voting to appoint ChainSecurity and Certora as joint security provers, with ZeroShadow handling incident response under a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed budget starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13.Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to host a tokenholder update call.Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a townhall meeting.UnlocksAug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.33% of its circulating supply worth $41.92 million.Aug. 15: Starknet STRK$0.03163 to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $18.22 million.Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $18.7 million.Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $44.79 million.Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $60.41 million.Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $28.95 million.Token LaunchesAug. 13: Overlay (OVL) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Gate.io, WEEX, Ourbit, MEXC, BYDFi, and others.ConferencesThe CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Day 3 of 3: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)Day 3 of 7: Ethereum NYC (New York)Day 1 of 2: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole)Token TalkBy Shaurya Malwa

OKB surged to a record $142 (+200%) after OKX announced a permanent supply cut to 21M tokens — one of the largest in its history — alongside a “PP upgrade” to its Polygon-powered X Layer chain.The upgrade boosts throughput to 5,000 TPS, cuts gas fees to near zero and adds gasless USDT withdrawals. OKX will also decommission OKTChain, halting OKT trading on Aug. 13 and converting balances to OKB from Aug. 15.Eden Network is shutting down all services, including Eden RPC and Bundles, citing unprofitable competition in the MEV relay and block-building space.Starting in 2021 to optimize MEV revenue for miners and validators, Eden saw early success but lost ground post-Merge as the market consolidated around a few operators.FARTCOIN rose 17% as whale wallets with $1M+ in holdings increased supply by 2% over 24 hours, while “smart money” addresses boosted holdings by 3%.MACD momentum on the daily chart is bullish, with the token eyeing a breakout above $1.74 if buying persists. Key support sits at $0.74 if momentum fades.Derivatives PositioningEther's (ETH) price rise is accompanied by fresh capital inflows into CME-listed futures, where open interest in standard contracts sized at 50 ETH has increased to 1.85 million ETH, up from 1.5 million ETH just over a week ago.Traders appear to be positioning for an upside as the annualized three-month basis has topped 10%. In bitcoin's BTC$61,579.60 case, CME basis remains near 7.5%.The altcoin market shows no signs of overheating despite ether surging toward record highs. That's evident from perpetual funding rates on offshore exchanges, which remain pinned near annualized 10% for most major tokens.Open interest in privacy-focused Monero (XMR) rose to the highest level since December, as the token's price dropped to $245, the lowest since April. The data indicate that traders sold the rally to profit from the price drop.On Deribit, ether traders chased calls at strike $5,000 and higher in a sign of bullish market sentiment. ETH calls traded at a premium relative to puts across all tenors. Still, ether's 30-day implied volatility index, ETH DVOL, remained pinned in recent ranges around 70%.BTC's implied volatility also remained relatively steady. Flows on the OTC network Paradigm featured demand for higher-strike OTM calls, particularly the $ 160,000 strike.Market MovementsBTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $120,049.72 (24hrs: +1.46%)ETH is up 1.59% at $4,691.83 (24hrs: +9.76%)CoinDesk 20 is up 1.28% at 4,370.33 (24hrs: +7.11%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.97%BTC funding rate is at 0.0196% (21.462% annualized) on KuCoinDXY is down 0.45% at 97.66Gold futures are up 0.48% at $3,415.20Silver futures are up 1.64% at $38.62Nikkei 225 closed up 1.30% at 43,274.67Hang Seng closed up 2.58% at 25,613.67FTSE is up 0.14% at 9,160.17Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.76% at 5,376.35DJIA closed on Tuesday up 1.10% at 44,458.61S&P 500 closed up 1.13% at 6,445.76Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.39% at 21,681.90S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.53% at 27,921.26S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.82% at 2,696.80U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.9 bps at 4.254%E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,479.75E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 23,992.25E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.22% at 44,656.00Bitcoin StatsBTC Dominance: 59.3% (-0.63%)Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03858 (0.96%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 893 EH/sHashprice (spot): $58.74Total fees: 4.25 BTC / $506,562CME Futures Open Interest: 139,255 BTCBTC priced in gold: 35.7 oz.BTC vs gold market cap: 10.1%Technical AnalysisETH's weekly chart with the RSI. (TradingView)Ether's 14-week relative strength index (RSI), a popular indicator, has crossed above 70 to indicate strong bullish momentum. Historically, readings above 70 have marked phases of the market characterized by fear of missing out (FOMO) and rapid price rallies. Crypto EquitiesStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $394.39 (-1.46%), +0.66% at $397 in pre-marketCoinbase Global (COIN): closed at $322.62 (+0.94%), +0.98% at $325.77Circle (CRCL): closed at $163.21 (+1.27%), -4.45% at $155.94Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.90 (-2.04%), +1.83% at $28.41MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.72 (+0.38%), +1.02% at $15.88Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.44 (+2.97%), +0.96% at $11.55Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.11 (+3.99%), -5.89% at $14.22CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.92 (+0.51%), +0.81% at $10CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.41 (+1.4%)Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.54 (-2.1%)Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.86 (-7.5%), unchanged in pre-marketSharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $22.47 (+0.6%), +2.67% at $23.07ETF FlowsSpot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $65.9 millionCumulative net flows: $54.65 billionTotal BTC holdings ~1.29 millionSpot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $523.9 millionCumulative net flows: $11.38 billionTotal ETH holdings ~6 millionSource: Farside Investors

Chart of the DayMOVE index. (TradingView)The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in the Treasury market, has dropped to 77.42, the lowest since January 2022. The slide supports continued risk-taking in financial markets. While You Were SleepingEther Eyes Record High as Options Traders Bet Big on ETH's $5K Breakout (CoinDesk): Amberdata's Greg Magadini sees ETH having "plenty of room" to rise, targeting $5,000 for a breakout into record territory and $7,200 based on ETH/BTC mid-range valuations.A16z, DeFi Group Pitch U.S. SEC on Safe Harbor for DeFi Apps (CoinDesk): The venture capital firm and the DeFI research and advocacy group are petitioning the SEC for regulatory safe harbors for websites and apps used to access DeFi projects.The Recipe Behind the Trump Family’s Crypto Riches: PancakeSwap (The Wall Street Journal): The value of the Trump family’s stake in World Liberty Financial appears linked to the demand for its stablecoin, USD1, which is benefiting from heavy promotion on decentralized exchange PancakeSwap.China and India Rebuild Ties After Modi’s Rupture With Trump (Bloomberg): Despite deadly 2020 border clashes, India and China are resuming direct flights, easing trade restrictions and pursuing limited cooperation after U.S. tariffs strained New Delhi’s relationship with Washington.France, Germany and UK willing to reimpose sanctions on Iran (Financial Times): The European countries plan to reinstate U.N. sanctions under a 2015 accord’s snapback clause if Iran doesn’t agree to a diplomatic deal by the end of August or resume negotiations to extend the deadline.Before Trump Talks to Putin, Germany and Others Want to Bend His Ear (The New York Times): A Wednesday video call allows Germany’s chancellor, Ukraine’s president and select European leaders to implore the U.S. president not to strike a deal with Russia’s leader at the Alaska summit.Related Assets

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WSJ: Bitcoin Depot Slides as New Regulations Expected to Dent Sales

Analyst: Micron's earnings boost overall market sentiment for the tech sector

Chris Strazzeri, Financial Trading Manager of Moomoo’s Australia and New Zealand branch, stated: “The targeted sell-off indicates that following a sustained, strong rally in AI-related and speculative growth stocks, investors are enforcing strict valuation discipline. This serves as a warning to the market that actual earnings levels must now rise to support the currently overvalued price-to-earnings ratio. Micron Technology’s post-market earnings results largely confirm this, and its robust performance has lifted overall market sentiment in the tech sector.”

3 minutes ago

2x Leveraged Long DRAM ETF (RAM) Records $383 Million in Trading Volume on Its First Day of Listing

According to Bitget market data, the Roundhill T-REX 2X Long DRAM Daily Target ETF (Nasdaq ticker: RAM) officially launched trading yesterday. On its first trading day, the fund recorded a total turnover of $383 million, and rose 29.47% in after-hours U.S. stock trading to hit $30.8. Note: RAM’s underlying exposure covers companies engaged in memory-related technologies, including DRAM, NAND and storage solutions, targeting active traders seeking leveraged exposure to the memory chip theme and artificial intelligence infrastructure development.

3 minutes ago

BCA Research raises its S&P 500 target to 8,100 points, with AI remaining a core variable.

BCA Research has become the latest strategy firm to raise its US stock market target, reflecting Wall Street’s growing optimism about earnings support for US equities in the second half of the year. The institution lifted its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,700 points to 8,100 points. BCA’s core view is that first-quarter corporate earnings exceeded expectations in both strength and breadth, and the US economy has re-entered an expansion phase. Similar to JPMorgan Chase, BCA believes this stock rally is not only driven by valuation expansion—earnings themselves are delivering the index’s gains. AI remains the core variable in this assessment. Large tech firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle continue to increase capital spending on data centers and AI infrastructure, driving growth in orders for chips, servers, construction, power and related industrial chains. This provides a clearer fundamental basis for upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 earnings. The institution points out that risks exist: the earnings expansion brought by AI investments has already been quickly priced into the market. If subsequent returns on capital spending are questioned, or interest rates remain elevated, further upside for the index will require more earnings confirmation rather than relying solely on investor risk appetite.

3 minutes ago

Tom Lee: Markets have nearly priced in two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, and the rise in US Treasury yields is weighing on market sentiment.

Tom Lee said the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh’s remarks from his first press conference last week and repricing the macro environment. Over the past week, oil prices have pulled back, with war premiums contracting. Current oil prices are not far from the roughly $65 level seen before the conflict, indicating the market views related war risks as declining. On the other hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, now around 4.5%, higher than the pre-conflict level of roughly 4.2%. The main headwind the market has faced recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee noted that the market is not only focused on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields but also starting to price in potential additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in nearly two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December respectively. Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes the importance of monitoring 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, as they typically lead the Fed and signal the central bank’s policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate indicated that the Fed’s policy was overly tight, requiring interest rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a headwind for the market.

3 minutes ago

Japan and South Korea's stock markets closed higher across the board, with Japan's stock market hitting a new closing high.

According to Bitget market data, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 3,191.37 points, or 4.61%, at 72,366.34 points on Thursday, June 25, hitting a new all-time closing high. South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 459.76 points (5.43%) to end at 8,930.78 points; SK Hynix surged 13% while Samsung Electronics gained more than 5%.

3 minutes ago

A newly created wallet withdrew 17,675 ETH from Binance, valued at $28.58 million.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet withdrew 17,675 ETH from Binance, valued at $28.58 million.

3 minutes ago

Analyst: Micron's earnings boost overall market sentiment for the tech sector

Chris Strazzeri, Financial Trading Manager of Moomoo’s Australia and New Zealand branch, stated: “The targeted sell-off indicates that following a sustained, strong rally in AI-related and speculative growth stocks, investors are enforcing strict valuation discipline. This serves as a warning to the market that actual earnings levels must now rise to support the currently overvalued price-to-earnings ratio. Micron Technology’s post-market earnings results largely confirm this, and its robust performance has lifted overall market sentiment in the tech sector.”

3 minutes ago

2x Leveraged Long DRAM ETF (RAM) Records $383 Million in Trading Volume on Its First Day of Listing

According to Bitget market data, the Roundhill T-REX 2X Long DRAM Daily Target ETF (Nasdaq ticker: RAM) officially launched trading yesterday. On its first trading day, the fund recorded a total turnover of $383 million, and rose 29.47% in after-hours U.S. stock trading to hit $30.8. Note: RAM’s underlying exposure covers companies engaged in memory-related technologies, including DRAM, NAND and storage solutions, targeting active traders seeking leveraged exposure to the memory chip theme and artificial intelligence infrastructure development.

3 minutes ago

BCA Research raises its S&P 500 target to 8,100 points, with AI remaining a core variable.

BCA Research has become the latest strategy firm to raise its US stock market target, reflecting Wall Street’s growing optimism about earnings support for US equities in the second half of the year. The institution lifted its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,700 points to 8,100 points. BCA’s core view is that first-quarter corporate earnings exceeded expectations in both strength and breadth, and the US economy has re-entered an expansion phase. Similar to JPMorgan Chase, BCA believes this stock rally is not only driven by valuation expansion—earnings themselves are delivering the index’s gains. AI remains the core variable in this assessment. Large tech firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle continue to increase capital spending on data centers and AI infrastructure, driving growth in orders for chips, servers, construction, power and related industrial chains. This provides a clearer fundamental basis for upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 earnings. The institution points out that risks exist: the earnings expansion brought by AI investments has already been quickly priced into the market. If subsequent returns on capital spending are questioned, or interest rates remain elevated, further upside for the index will require more earnings confirmation rather than relying solely on investor risk appetite.

3 minutes ago

Tom Lee: Markets have nearly priced in two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, and the rise in US Treasury yields is weighing on market sentiment.

Tom Lee said the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh’s remarks from his first press conference last week and repricing the macro environment. Over the past week, oil prices have pulled back, with war premiums contracting. Current oil prices are not far from the roughly $65 level seen before the conflict, indicating the market views related war risks as declining. On the other hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, now around 4.5%, higher than the pre-conflict level of roughly 4.2%. The main headwind the market has faced recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee noted that the market is not only focused on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields but also starting to price in potential additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in nearly two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December respectively. Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes the importance of monitoring 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, as they typically lead the Fed and signal the central bank’s policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate indicated that the Fed’s policy was overly tight, requiring interest rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a headwind for the market.

3 minutes ago

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