Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Key Takeaways CROX has outperformed peers recently but faces tariff, margin and HEYDUDE-related growth challenges.Crocs is investing in international expansion, marketing and inventory discipline to support long-term growth.CROX trades below the industry P/E but above its historical median valuation despite recent share gains. Crocs, Inc. (CROX - Free Report) has seen its shares rally 28.1% in the past three months, outperforming the industry’s growth of 5.6%. The stock has also outperformed the broader sector’s 4.7% decline and the S&P 500 Index’s 4% increase over the same period.

CROX Stock’s 3-Month Performance
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In the past three months, CROX has trailed the performance of Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE - Free Report) while outperforming G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII - Free Report) and Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM - Free Report) . In the same period, shares of VNCE, GIII and COLM have increased 31.5%, 8.8% and 1%, respectively.

CROX’s Share Price Performance VS Peers
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Closing at $132.47 in the last trading session, CROX stock stands 5.7% below its 52-week high of $140.42 reached on July 17, 2026. CROX is trading above its 50-day simple moving average of $120.99 and its 200-day simple moving average of $95.95, indicating a strong technical setup.

CROX Trades Above 50 & 200-Day SMA
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Crocs Drives Growth Through Global ExpansionCrocs remains optimistic about its international business, expecting strong growth across its international markets for the remainder of the year and seeing a multiyear runway for expansion in key markets. Management highlighted particularly robust performance in Japan and China, noting that both continue to deliver very strong growth and reinforce the company's long-term global opportunity.

To support future growth, the company is also investing in marketing across both brands to drive demand for new product launches. At the same time, Crocs is maintaining a disciplined approach to inventory and supply chain management, using lean inventory levels to improve productivity and enhance financial flexibility.

Crocs Reports Margin Pressure and Weak Brand PerformanceDespite these long-term growth opportunities, the company is facing the impact of the Middle East conflict and expects these impacts to create several challenges for the Crocs brand. Management identified three potential areas of impact: lower revenue from its Middle East distributor business, which has already been incorporated into its annual guidance; higher raw material and transportation costs associated with elevated oil prices; and the possibility of broader macroeconomic disruptions, the extent of which remains uncertain. These factors could create additional headwinds for the business going forward.

The company faced margin pressure in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with enterprise adjusted gross margin declining 90 basis points year over year to 56.9%. The decrease was primarily driven by a 100-basis-point impact from incremental tariffs, along with an unfavorable product mix. These headwinds were only partially offset by a favorable brand mix, resulting in an overall decline in gross margin in the first quarter.

Crocs reported weaker performance across both of its key brands in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 while continuing to execute initiatives to return both brands to growth. Sales at the Crocs brand declined 2%, while the HEYDUDE brand recorded a steeper 13% decrease. Both brands reported lower adjusted gross margins in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin for the Crocs brand declined 120 basis points to 59.5%, while the HEYDUDE brand experienced a steeper contraction of 210 basis points, bringing its adjusted gross margin to 44.5%.

Crocs issued a cautious outlook, expecting second-quarter revenues to decline slightly at prevailing currency rates, with continued weakness at the HEYDUDE brand and margin pressure from tariffs. For 2026, the company projects muted enterprise revenue growth between down 1% and up 1%, while HEYDUDE is still expected to post a 5% to 7% sales decline despite an improved outlook.

How Estimates Are Shaped Up for CROX?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CROX’s current quarter earnings per share has been revised up by 2 cents to $4.32 in the past seven days. The consensus mark for the current year earnings per share has been revised down by a penny to $13.66, reflecting a challenging outlook for the year.

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CROX is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 9.29X, lower than the industry average of 15.70X and well below the S&P 500 multiple of 20.80X. However, the stock is trading above its 12-month median P/E of 7.11X, suggesting potential overvaluation relative to its historical valuations.

Crocs’ Valuation Picture
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How to Play CROX Stock?Although Crocs continues to see attractive long-term opportunities in international markets, the business is facing mounting near-term challenges that could weigh on financial performance and investor sentiment. Weakening brand momentum and pressure on profitability reduce visibility into the pace of any meaningful recovery, while ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties create additional pressures. Given these risks, existing investors may consider reducing exposure, while prospective investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence of sustained improvement in operating performance and a more favorable business environment. At present, CROX carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The market expects Crocs (CROX - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 30. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis footwear company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $4.32 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +2.1%.

Revenues are expected to be $1.15 billion, down 0.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.34% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Crocs?For Crocs, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.12%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Crocs will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Crocs would post earnings of $2.78 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.99, delivering a surprise of +7.55%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Crocs doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.