Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Shares of membership-based warehouse retailer Costco Wholesale (COST -1.46%) trade near $1,010 as I write, nearly 8% under the record close of $1,094.32 they set on May 19.

The company behind the stock keeps delivering. Costco's earnings per share grew 14% in fiscal 2026 (the 52 weeks ending Aug. 30, 2026), faster than the 10% increase a year earlier. And net sales climbed 10% to around $297 billion.

What might $5,000 put in the stock now be worth by the end of 2030?

With a forecast based on earnings growth, a lower valuation multiple, and the dividend, I get around $6,350. It's a decent gain. But the same $5,000 in an index fund matching the long-term average of the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.52%) might reach around $7,450.

Image source: Getty Images.

How fast can earnings grow?Costco's fiscal 2026 earnings included a one-time boost of $0.15 a share from tariff refunds in the fiscal fourth quarter. Without that, the company earned around $20.61 a share, still about 13% above fiscal 2025's $18.21.

Earnings per share were $11.27 in fiscal 2021, so this rate matches their average growth of around 13% a year for the last five years.

But the next few years likely won't match it. Costco hiked its yearly membership fees in the U.S. and Canada on Sept. 1, 2024, and it records that income gradually over each member's year. The higher fees made up around 30% of the 11% growth in membership fee revenue in fiscal 2026, according to Costco's annual report. By the fiscal fourth quarter, membership fee income was up only about 7% year over year.

That matters because membership fees brought in around $5.9 billion last fiscal year, or about half of Costco's $11.7 billion in operating income.

The rest of the business still has room to grow, of course. Comparable sales excluding gas prices and foreign exchange climbed 6.6% in fiscal 2026, and Costco plans to open up to 33 warehouses in fiscal 2027, including five relocations.

I'll assume earnings per share grow around 11% a year from here, a step down from the last five years but still a solid rate. That puts fiscal 2030 earnings per share at about $31.30.

Costco's valuation might come downThe price investors pay for these earnings arguably counts just as much. At around $1,010, Costco stock trades at about 49 times fiscal 2026 earnings. At the end of fiscal 2023, the stock fetched about 38 times that year's earnings of $14.16 per share.

I'll assume the price-to-earnings ratio lands at 40 times earnings by the end of 2030. That's still a premium price for a retailer, and I think it's fair for a business growing earnings roughly 11% a year.

At 40 times fiscal 2030 earnings of about $31.30, Costco stock would trade near $1,250. Now, $5,000 gets about 4.95 shares, so the stake might be worth around $6,190.

Costco also pays a dividend of $1.47 per share a quarter, after lifting it 13% in April. If the payout keeps climbing around 11% a year, in line with earnings, the 4.95 shares might collect a bit over $150 in regular dividends by the end of 2030 (I'm not counting any special dividends). That takes the total to around $6,350, a gain of about 6% a year.

COST Costco Wholesale$1,003.32-$14.89 (-1.46%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

An index fund might do betterWith dividends, the S&P 500 has returned about 10% a year since 1928. At that rate, $5,000 put in the index through a fund on Oct. 23 could rise to about $7,450 by the end of 2030 -- about $1,100 more than my Costco forecast.

Then again, the market could return less than its long-run average in the next few years. And Costco's price-to-earnings ratio may not come down at all. The stock closed each of the last three fiscal years at more than 45 times earnings. But for Costco to keep up with the index fund, it'd have to trade at about 47 times earnings at the end of 2030, near where it trades today, while still growing earnings 11% a year.

Put another way, the company might do everything I'm assuming, and the stock could still trail the market if investors pay a bit less for every dollar Costco earns.

I think the warehouse club is still one of the best retailers to own for the long run, and I'd be comfortable adding shares slowly over time. But I wouldn't expect the stock to beat an index fund from here.

Costco Wholesale (COST +1.27%) last split its stock in January 2000. Just after the 2-for-1 split, the shares sold for about $49.

Now one share costs roughly $994 as of this writing, or about what 20 shares cost back then. Even after a dip, that's only about 9% off the warehouse club's all-time closing high of $1,094.32, hit in May.

Investors have noticed. An analyst asked about a split on an earnings call, shareholders asked at both of the past two annual meetings, and Costco hasn't announced one.

Could a split finally be coming?

Image source: Getty Images.

Costco says its board keeps looking at itThe fullest answer came from CFO Gary Millerchip on the company's earnings call in December 2024. Asked about splits, Millerchip said there wasn't a plan for one then.

He also laid out why a split matters less than before.

"[T]he economic arguments that were true in the past are a little bit less clear because retail investors and employees both have the ability now to buy fractional shares," Millerchip said.

But he also said a lower share price can make the stock seem more affordable for the same investors and employees. And he added the company would keep talking it over with the board.

CEO Ron Vachris has given shareholders a shorter version of that answer since. At the annual meeting in January 2025, he said there was nothing to report on a split. A year later, at the meeting on Jan. 15, 2026, a shareholder asked about both a split and a special dividend.

"I have nothing to report at this time, but I can tell you that it's being reviewed with the board, and we look at it regularly," Vachris said.

I'd read it as a polite no for now. A split didn't come up in Costco's fiscal fourth-quarter call on Sept. 24, and its next annual meeting is on Jan. 21, 2027.

Two retailers that did splitTwo other retailers split their shares recently, and both said they did it mostly for their employees.

Walmart (WMT +1.42%) announced a 3-for-1 split on Jan. 30, 2024, when its stock closed around $166. Back then, over 400,000 of its workers were in its stock purchase plan. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +1.66%) followed in March 2025, when its board approved a 15-for-1 split with the shares near $1,300.

Both CEOs even used the same words, describing the aim as letting employees buy "whole shares, rather than fractions."

Costco's chief financial officer, though, took the other side of that point. After all, fractions are easy to get now. Charles Schwab, for instance, lets investors buy fractional shares of most U.S.-listed stocks for as little as $1.

And the share price alone likely doesn't force Costco's hand. It's about six times what Walmart's stock cost when it announced its split, but below where O'Reilly's was.

A split wouldn't make Costco cheaperEven if Costco did split its shares, its valuation would stay the same. With about 443 million shares outstanding, Costco is worth roughly $441 billion at today's price. A 10-for-1 split would just turn that into about 4.4 billion shares at about $99 each.

What drives the stock over time is what a share earns. Costco earned $20.76 per share in fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 30, 2026), up 14% from the year before. That's faster than fiscal 2025's 10% gain, so earnings growth is accelerating. Shares around $994 put the stock's price-to-earnings ratio at about 48. That means buyers pay about $48 for every $1 Costco earned last fiscal year. And I think a price like that already asks a lot of a company growing earnings at around 14%, and a split wouldn't change it.

COST Costco Wholesale$1,010.97+$12.66 (+1.27%)

NASDAQ · As of 10:50 AM ET 10/22/26

If Costco wants to give shareholders something, the other item in Vachris' answer could do it. Costco's regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share works out to a yield of only around 0.6%, so it isn't much of a dividend stock by itself. But Costco has paid five special dividends since 2012, the biggest a $15 per share payout in January 2024 that cost the company around $6.7 billion. It hasn't paid any since.

Is a split next, then? I doubt one is close. Costco's leaders have given the same answer at least three times since December 2024, and the chief financial officer's point on fractional shares goes against the one Walmart and O'Reilly made.

If a split does happen, it changes the price of a share and little else. I'd focus more on the special dividend, the other item on the board's list, because it's the one that gives shareholders cash.

SteelPeak Wealth LLC trimmed its position in Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report) by 44.4% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 16,664 shares of the retailer’s stock after selling 13,311 shares during the period. SteelPeak Wealth LLC’s holdings in Costco Wholesale were worth $15,170,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

Several other institutional investors and hedge funds also recently modified their holdings of COST. Sarasin & Partners LLP increased its stake in Costco Wholesale by 6.9% in the 2nd quarter. Sarasin & Partners LLP now owns 214,194 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $200,372,000 after buying an additional 13,795 shares during the last quarter. Nissay Asset Management Corp Japan raised its position in Costco Wholesale by 4.1% during the second quarter. Nissay Asset Management Corp Japan now owns 158,416 shares of the retailer’s stock worth $148,193,000 after acquiring an additional 6,200 shares in the last quarter. Silvant Capital Management LLC acquired a new stake in Costco Wholesale in the second quarter valued at $16,013,000. Hyperion Asset Management Ltd lifted its stake in Costco Wholesale by 9.0% in the second quarter. Hyperion Asset Management Ltd now owns 68,762 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $64,325,000 after acquiring an additional 5,656 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of Costco Wholesale by 15.0% in the 2nd quarter. Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC now owns 22,766 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $21,297,000 after acquiring an additional 2,974 shares during the period. 68.48% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Costco Wholesale Price Performance Shares of COST opened at $989.11 on Monday. The company’s 50-day moving average is $933.15 and its 200-day moving average is $963.04. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, a current ratio of 1.06 and a quick ratio of 0.62. The firm has a market capitalization of $438.30 billion, a PE ratio of 47.64, a PEG ratio of 4.23 and a beta of 0.88. Costco Wholesale Corporation has a fifty-two week low of $844.06 and a fifty-two week high of $1,096.50.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, September 24th. The retailer reported $6.75 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $6.54 by $0.21. The business had revenue of $95.72 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $94.97 billion. Costco Wholesale had a net margin of 3.04% and a return on equity of 27.60%. Costco Wholesale’s revenue was up 11.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $5.87 EPS. Equities analysts forecast that Costco Wholesale Corporation will post 22.70 EPS for the current year. Costco Wholesale Announces Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, November 13th. Shareholders of record on Friday, October 30th will be issued a $1.47 dividend. This represents a $5.88 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.6%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, October 30th. Costco Wholesale’s dividend payout ratio is currently 28.32%.

Key Costco Wholesale News Here are the key news stories impacting Costco Wholesale this week:

Positive Sentiment: September sales accelerated: Costco reported September net sales of $30.02 billion, up 13% year over year, while digitally enabled sales increased 19%. The results reinforce the strength of Costco’s membership model, e-commerce business and value-focused offering. September Sales Growth Positive Sentiment: Analyst support remains strong: Tigress Financial reiterated a Buy rating while setting a $1,065 price target after previously publicizing a higher $1,250 target. Other coverage highlights Costco’s sales growth, membership loyalty and digital gains, supporting the recent recovery above key moving averages. Tigress Financial Price Target Positive Sentiment: Dividend maintained: Costco declared a quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, payable November 13 to shareholders of record October 30. While the approximately 0.6% yield is modest, the payment signals continued cash-flow strength. Costco Dividend Announcement Positive Sentiment: Expansion pipeline: Proposed warehouse projects in Macon and Oakland, along with a planned Merced County relocation, point to continued investment in Costco’s store network. Infrastructure financing of up to $30 million could support the Macon development. Macon Costco Project Neutral Sentiment: Costco’s fiscal 2027 executive bonus plan adds sustainability-related measures. The change may support long-term operational goals, but it is unlikely to materially affect near-term earnings. Costco Executive Bonus Update Negative Sentiment: Valuation and macro risks remain: Costco trades at a high earnings multiple, leaving the stock vulnerable if growth or membership trends slow. Persistent inflation and potentially higher interest rates could also pressure consumer spending and market valuations. Negative Sentiment: An executive sold 1,100 shares worth approximately $1.05 million. The transaction is relatively small compared with Costco’s market value, but it may add a modest cautionary signal for investors. Costco Insider Sale Insider Activity In other Costco Wholesale news, EVP William Richard Wilcox sold 1,100 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, October 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $958.21, for a total transaction of $1,054,031.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 3,094 shares in the company, valued at $2,964,701.74. This trade represents a 26.23% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, EVP Claudine Adamo sold 2,200 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $915.93, for a total value of $2,015,046.00. Following the sale, the executive vice president owned 7,134 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $6,534,244.62. This represents a 23.57% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. 0.10% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

Analysts Set New Price Targets COST has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Guggenheim restated a “neutral” rating on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research note on Monday, September 28th. Roth Capital reaffirmed a “sell” rating and issued a $781.00 target price on shares of Costco Wholesale in a report on Friday, September 25th. Freedom Broker cut their target price on shares of Costco Wholesale from $1,030.00 to $1,010.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Friday, September 25th. UBS Group reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research note on Thursday, September 17th. Finally, Weiss Ratings upgraded Costco Wholesale from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “buy (b-)” rating in a report on Thursday, October 8th. Twenty-four investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, eight have assigned a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,087.40.

Check Out Our Latest Analysis on COST

Costco Wholesale Profile (Free Report)

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a membership-based warehouse retail business under the Costco name. The company sells merchandise in bulk and at competitive prices through warehouse clubs and e-commerce platforms, serving individual consumers, businesses and other organizations.

Its product selection includes groceries and fresh foods, household supplies, appliances, electronics, furniture, apparel, health and beauty products, jewelry, automotive products and prescription drugs. Costco also provides services such as optical care, pharmacy services, hearing-aid sales, travel offerings and fuel sales, depending on location.

The company traces its roots to Price Club, which opened in San Diego in 1976.

Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale These 3 Green Stocks Have a Growth Story That Goes Far Beyond Washington Meta Claims Frontier-Class AI Status With New Muse Wonder Models Berkshire Just Backed This Little-Known Stock—Should You Chase It? Broadcom’s CEO Sees Years of AI Demand But Warns of a Bigger Threat to the Boom Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report).

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When Costco Wholesale (COST +1.14%) stock falls 10% or more from its peak, like right now, history says it usually sets a new high within a year, though there are a couple of important (and recent) counterexamples to be aware of. The stock's most recent record high was in May of this year, and a recovery is already in progress; at the lows, its drawdown was just a hair over 18%.

For shareholders like yours truly, these stretches of bumpiness are annoying, but they're also great opportunities to buy more shares. Let's take a look at how Costco tends to perform in the periods after these declines to see why that's the case.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

This stock doesn't stay down for long Over the last 10 years, Costco's stock fell 10% or more seven different times before this most recent one drop. In five of those instances, it went on to set a new record within 12 months. And, in all seven cases, it eventually recovered, with the slowest recovery taking around 19 months.

The 2017 slump happened after Amazon agreed to buy the grocer Whole Foods in June, and at least one investment bank downgraded Costco's rating over fears that its members would defect. It went on to hit a fresh record high on Nov. 30, 2017 after its memberships kept growing anyway.

What's more, Costco's earnings per share (EPS) grew consistently throughout 2017 to 2026, showing significant resilience against the impacts of the pandemic and the inflation spike afterwards. Members keep renewing all the while, which is why Costco is at home among stocks with wide moats, with 92.3% of U.S. and Canadian members renewing their memberships in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.

The exceptions to the stock's habit of bouncing back are the two most recent data points, which suggest investors shouldn't be quite as gung-ho about its resilience as in the past.

$989.11+$11.10 (+1.14%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

In May 2022, Costco's shares took a hit after two of its competitors, Target and Walmart, both blamed higher-than-normal inflation for their earnings misses. At that time, Costco fell by an unusually brutal 31.5% from its April 2022 high and didn't fully recover to that point until December 2023.

Similarly, a decline that began in February 2025 lasted until May 2026, a rather long stretch, given that the stock market made repeated new all-time highs during the same period.

Both of those cases are also notable because they were initiated from fairly steep valuations. Costco's trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was at 62.4 in February 2025, a 10-year high. Its EPS still rose during that year, but the valuation multiple shrank faster.

Should you buy Costco on this dip? If you're wondering whether to buy Costco while it's a bit cheaper than before, there are a few things to consider.

This most recent decline began as the company's growth slowed slightly; sales at warehouses open for one year or more climbed 8.8% in June 2026, down from 12.5% in May. The boost that the company had initially gotten from higher gas prices earlier in the year tapered off a bit.

Another factor is that the stock's valuation hasn't reset much relative to the highs. With a P/E of 47.3 on Oct. 15, Costco's valuation is still well above its 10-year average P/E of 40. While that doesn't put it into the club of most overvalued stocks, that kind of premium valuation multiple tends to not leave much room for bumps in the road without harming the share price.

So, with all of that being said, Costco's stock making a new high within the next 12 months is, unfortunately, somewhat less likely than its record implies. The stock might drift sideways while earnings catch up.

That's no impediment to buying it if you're already set on holding it for the long term, as I am, and so it's probably worth grabbing a few extra shares while they're cheaper than they were in May.

ACT Advisors LLC. boosted its holdings in shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report) by 908.8% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 2,300 shares of the retailer’s stock after acquiring an additional 2,072 shares during the quarter. Costco Wholesale makes up approximately 0.7% of ACT Advisors LLC.’s portfolio, making the stock its 18th largest holding. ACT Advisors LLC.’s holdings in Costco Wholesale were worth $2,094,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

A number of other institutional investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. State Street Corp grew its stake in Costco Wholesale by 31.7% in the 2nd quarter. State Street Corp now owns 23,901,594 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $22,359,224,000 after buying an additional 5,749,362 shares during the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE grew its position in shares of Costco Wholesale by 11.5% in the first quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 7,515,031 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $7,488,203,000 after purchasing an additional 773,651 shares during the last quarter. Corient Private Wealth LLC grew its position in shares of Costco Wholesale by 838.9% in the fourth quarter. Corient Private Wealth LLC now owns 6,125,405 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $5,282,182,000 after purchasing an additional 5,472,968 shares during the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. increased its stake in shares of Costco Wholesale by 3.4% in the fourth quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 4,328,729 shares of the retailer’s stock worth $3,732,836,000 after purchasing an additional 143,150 shares during the period. Finally, UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC increased its stake in shares of Costco Wholesale by 5.5% in the second quarter. UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC now owns 3,068,312 shares of the retailer’s stock worth $2,870,314,000 after purchasing an additional 160,893 shares during the period. 68.48% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

More Costco Wholesale News Here are the key news stories impacting Costco Wholesale this week:

Positive Sentiment: September sales accelerated: Costco reported September net sales of $30.02 billion, up 13% year over year, while digitally enabled sales increased 19%. The results reinforce the strength of Costco’s membership model, e-commerce business and value-focused offering. September Sales Growth Positive Sentiment: Analyst support remains strong: Tigress Financial reiterated a Buy rating while setting a $1,065 price target after previously publicizing a higher $1,250 target. Other coverage highlights Costco’s sales growth, membership loyalty and digital gains, supporting the recent recovery above key moving averages. Tigress Financial Price Target Positive Sentiment: Dividend maintained: Costco declared a quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, payable November 13 to shareholders of record October 30. While the approximately 0.6% yield is modest, the payment signals continued cash-flow strength. Costco Dividend Announcement Positive Sentiment: Expansion pipeline: Proposed warehouse projects in Macon and Oakland, along with a planned Merced County relocation, point to continued investment in Costco’s store network. Infrastructure financing of up to $30 million could support the Macon development. Macon Costco Project Neutral Sentiment: Costco’s fiscal 2027 executive bonus plan adds sustainability-related measures. The change may support long-term operational goals, but it is unlikely to materially affect near-term earnings. Costco Executive Bonus Update Negative Sentiment: Valuation and macro risks remain: Costco trades at a high earnings multiple, leaving the stock vulnerable if growth or membership trends slow. Persistent inflation and potentially higher interest rates could also pressure consumer spending and market valuations. Negative Sentiment: An executive sold 1,100 shares worth approximately $1.05 million. The transaction is relatively small compared with Costco’s market value, but it may add a modest cautionary signal for investors. Costco Insider Sale Costco Wholesale Stock Performance NASDAQ COST opened at $989.11 on Friday. The firm has a market cap of $438.30 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.82, a PEG ratio of 4.18 and a beta of 0.88. The company has a 50 day moving average of $933.15 and a 200-day moving average of $963.28. The company has a current ratio of 1.06, a quick ratio of 0.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11. Costco Wholesale Corporation has a 1-year low of $844.06 and a 1-year high of $1,096.50. Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, September 24th. The retailer reported $6.75 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $6.54 by $0.21. Costco Wholesale had a return on equity of 27.60% and a net margin of 3.04%. The business had revenue of $95.72 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $94.97 billion. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $5.87 EPS. Costco Wholesale’s revenue was up 11.1% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, equities analysts forecast that Costco Wholesale Corporation will post 22.70 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Costco Wholesale Dividend Announcement The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, November 13th. Stockholders of record on Friday, October 30th will be issued a dividend of $1.47 per share. This represents a $5.88 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.6%. The ex-dividend date is Friday, October 30th. Costco Wholesale’s dividend payout ratio is presently 28.32%.

Analysts Set New Price Targets COST has been the subject of several research analyst reports. UBS Group reissued a “buy” rating on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research report on Thursday, September 17th. Argus reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued a $1,230.00 price target on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research report on Monday, September 28th. Freedom Broker dropped their price target on Costco Wholesale from $1,030.00 to $1,010.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, September 25th. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price objective on Costco Wholesale from $1,000.00 to $950.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, September 25th. Finally, Evercore reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research note on Tuesday, September 22nd. Twenty-four analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, eight have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $1,087.40.

Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on COST

Insider Buying and Selling at Costco Wholesale In other news, EVP Claudine Adamo sold 2,200 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $915.93, for a total value of $2,015,046.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 7,134 shares in the company, valued at approximately $6,534,244.62. This trade represents a 23.57% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through this link. Also, EVP William Richard Wilcox sold 1,100 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, October 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $958.21, for a total transaction of $1,054,031.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 3,094 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,964,701.74. This represents a 26.23% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. 0.10% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Costco Wholesale Profile (Free Report)

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a membership-based warehouse retail business under the Costco name. The company sells a broad selection of merchandise, including groceries, fresh foods, beverages, appliances, electronics, furniture, apparel, jewelry, hardware, and seasonal products. It also offers services such as gasoline, pharmacies, optical departments, hearing-aid centers, food courts, travel services, and business delivery in selected markets.

Costco markets many products under its private-label Kirkland Signature brand and sells merchandise through warehouse locations and e-commerce platforms.

Read More Five stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale Bank of America Stock Sell-Off Looks Like a Buying Opportunity AST SpaceMobile Is Down 67%—Could SpaceX’s Mobile Push Deepen the Selloff? GlobalFoundries’ $21 Billion Deal Could Change the Economics of Chipmaking Fundamental and Technicals Signals Align for Costco: Is the Stock Finally Breaking Out? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report).

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Key Takeaways Costco's fiscal 2027 revenues are projected to grow 8.4% to $328.53 billion, with earnings rising 11%Memberships reached 84.1 million, while digital sales surged more than 20% in fiscal 2026, fueling growth.COST trades at 42.3X forward earnings, while margin pressures and rising costs add to valuation concerns.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) pairs durable membership economics with steady sales growth and expanding digital reach. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues reached $95.72 billion, while earnings came in at $6.60 per share, excluding a 15-cent nonrecurring benefit related to tariff refunds.

The growth case remains attractive, but the stock already reflects much of that quality. Investors must weigh Costco’s operating consistency against a forward earnings multiple that sits well above its industry and the broader market.

Costco’s Growth Engine Remains StrongThe Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for fiscal 2027 revenues of $328.53 billion, up 8.4% from fiscal 2026. Earnings are projected to rise 11% to $22.70 per share, extending Costco’s multiyear earnings compounding.

Fourth-quarter comparable sales increased 9.4%, or 6.7% after excluding gasoline-price and foreign-exchange effects. Shopping frequency rose 3.3%, supporting the view that growth is being driven by continued member engagement rather than price alone.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

COST’s Membership Economics Add DurabilityPaid memberships increased 3.8% to 84.1 million in fiscal 2026, while Executive memberships climbed 9.4% to 42.3 million. Executive members accounted for 75.2% of worldwide sales, giving Costco a large base of higher-spending customers.

Renewal rates reached 92.3% in the United States and Canada and 89.8% worldwide. Membership fee income also grew 7.3% in the fourth quarter, reinforcing the recurring-revenue foundation of the warehouse model.

Costco’s Digital Gains Broaden the OpportunityDigitally enabled sales exceeded $33 billion in fiscal 2026 and increased more than 20%. Fourth-quarter digitally enabled comparable sales rose 19.5%, while website and app traffic advanced 30% as Costco expanded delivery partnerships and personalization efforts.

The competitive benchmark remains demanding. Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) reported 23% global e-commerce growth in its fiscal 2027 second quarter, while Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) posted 8.7% digital comparable-sales growth in second-quarter fiscal 2026. Costco’s digital momentum therefore adds another growth channel without replacing its warehouse-led model.

COST’s Premium Valuation Raises the HurdleCOST trades at 42.3X forward 12-month earnings, compared with 28.7X for the Zacks sub-industry and 19.6X for the S&P 500. The stock’s five-year median multiple is 42.7X, indicating that investors have long assigned Costco a premium valuation.

That premium still reduces the margin for error. Slower earnings growth, softer comparable sales or a reassessment of premium retail valuations could pressure the shares even if the underlying business remains healthy.

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Costco Faces Margin and Tariff PressureFourth-quarter gross margin fell 11 basis points to 11.02%. Although gross margin improved 20 basis points excluding gasoline inflation, a $152 million LIFO charge and higher costs in electronics, fuel-related products and other commodities weighed on reported profitability.

Selling, general and administrative expenses improved 27 basis points as a percentage of sales, but only two basis points excluding gasoline inflation. Higher labor, health-care and liability costs, merchandise inflation and tariff uncertainty could limit operating leverage if sales growth moderates.

COST’s Signals Favor Quality Over ValueCostco’s growth profile remains attractive, but its valuation sets a high bar for execution. The current setup supports a measured stance rather than treating operating strength alone as sufficient reason to chase the stock.

COST carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Its Growth Score of A and VGM Score of B support the quality of its growth characteristics, while a Momentum Score of C is neutral and a Value Score of D underscores the valuation concern. For now, the combination points to patience unless earnings growth or valuation becomes more favorable. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Costco trades at a valuation that would make most investors flinch, yet buyers keep stepping in and analysts keep raising targets. The reason comes down to one membership metric that changes the math entirely.

Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) closed its latest full session at $954.63. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,057.74 over the next 12 months, which implies 10.8% upside. The stock earns a buy rating with high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $954.63 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $1,057.74 Upside/Downside 10.8% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% Valuation is the main point. Costco trades at roughly 46x trailing earnings and 42x forward EPS of $22.7822. Our model still sees upside because membership loyalty, steady traffic gains and a six-quarter EPS beat run keep justifying that premium.

A Strong Fiscal Year Finish Revived the Rally Shares rose 1.32% to $967.21 in Wednesday trading and are up 3.37% over the past week, 6.9% over the past month and 12.66% year to date. At its latest close, Costco sat 12.8% below its 52-week high of $1,094.76 and 13.6% higher than its low of $840.35.

The fiscal fourth quarter, reported September 24, delivered EPS of $6.75 versus the $6.53 estimate, including a $0.15 one-time tariff refund benefit.

Revenue of $95.72 billion beat expectations and grew 11.1%. Comparable sales rose 9.4%, or 6.7% excluding gas and currency. That resilience recently gave CNBC’s Jim Cramer a reason to feel better about the stock.

Why Bulls See $1,147 Within Reach Membership quality keeps improving. Paid executive members reached 42.3 million, up 9.4%, and U.S. and Canada renewals hit 92.3%. CEO Ron Vachris noted that “our member base under 40 has grown nearly 60% since COVID,” which builds a pipeline of future high spenders.

Costco plans 33 openings in fiscal 2027, and online enabled sales exceeded $33 billion. With 24 Buy or Strong Buy ratings on the stock, the bull case reaches $1,147.89.

What Could Keep Costco Stuck in Its Range A 46x multiple leaves little room for error. Analysts also noted that membership growth has slowed for eight consecutive quarters, and fee income growth cooled to 7.3% from 14.0% in fiscal Q1.

As a counterpoint, much of that deceleration reflects lapping the 2024 fee increase. Excluding the increase and currency, fee income still grew 6.8%. With 13 Holds and two Sell-side ratings, our bear case stands at $967.31.

Costco’s Premium Over Walmart and BJ’s Looks Earned Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) is the closest big-box rival and has Sam’s Club. It trades at about 41x earnings, yet Walmart U.S. comps grew just 2.6% last quarter. Costco’s small premium buys far faster comp growth, which makes our target look reasonable.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE:BJ) is the pure-play warehouse peer. BJ’s grew fee income 9.9% to a record 8.5 million members, but comps excluding gas rose only 3.1%. Costco’s ex-gas growth more than doubles that, supporting a conservative read on our target.

Company P/E Latest Comp Sales Costco 46x 9.4% Walmart (U.S.) 41x 2.6% BJ’s (ex-gas) Not available 3.1% Premium Price, Premium Business: BUY The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,057.74 supports a buy rating with 90% confidence. Renewal strength tips the scale.

I’d view the stock even more favorably if executive penetration keeps climbing and renewals improve further. I’d turn conservative if membership growth keeps slowing without offsetting spend gains. Costco is expensive, and I think the business keeps earning that premium.

Here is where the 24/7 Wall St. price target model projects Costco could trade, assuming current trends hold.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 (December) $954.59 2027 $1,061.05 2028 $1,156.13 2029 $1,219.90 2030 $1,312.05 These estimates assume Costco keeps executing on warehouse expansion and membership growth. Multiple compression or a faster international rollout could move results meaningfully in either direction.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways Costco's September net sales surged 13% to $30.02 billion, with comparable sales rising 11.4%.Costco's membership growth, digital expansion and plans for 33 warehouse openings support its outlook.COST's forward P/E of 41.55 exceeds the industry's 27.76, suggesting investors wait for a better entry point.
Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (COST - Free Report) September sales update offers fresh insight into the retail giant’s momentum. A dominant force in the warehouse club space with a long track record of growth, Costco has remained an investor favorite. However, the latest sales figures raise a key question: Should investors buy the stock now, hold their positions or book profits?

The September report showed solid comparable sales growth across regions, along with accelerating e-commerce sales. This reinforces the view that Costco’s operational execution and customer loyalty remain strong despite a challenging retail backdrop.

Breaking Down Costco’s September Sales ReportCostco reported net sales of $30.02 billion for the five weeks ended Oct. 4, 2026, representing a 13% increase from $26.58 billion in the year-ago period. Total comparable sales rose 11.4%, reflecting healthy demand across its operating regions. Comparable sales increased 12.5% in the United States, 6.3% in Canada and 10.8% in Other International markets. Excluding the impacts of gasoline price fluctuations and foreign exchange movements, total comparable sales advanced 7.6%.

Costco’s membership-driven business model remains a key competitive strength, with high renewal rates providing a steady revenue stream and reinforcing customer loyalty. Its bulk purchasing power, strong supplier relationships and efficient inventory management enable the retailer to maintain competitive pricing. This value-focused approach resonates with budget-conscious consumers seeking affordability and quality, supporting consistent demand and strengthening Costco’s position in a competitive retail environment. (Read: Costco's September Sales Rise 13% on Strong Comps, Digital Growth)

Unlocking Costco’s Growth DriversCostco continues to stand out as a compelling long-term investment opportunity, supported by its resilient business model, strong customer loyalty and continued market-share gains. The warehouse retailer’s focus on offering quality merchandise at competitive prices continues to attract shoppers and encourage higher spending, even in an uncertain consumer environment. Its ability to cater to both value-conscious households and consumers seeking premium products strengthens its competitive positioning. The continued expansion of its Kirkland Signature private-label portfolio, which offers meaningful savings over national brands without compromising quality, reinforces Costco’s pricing advantage.

The company’s membership-driven business model remains a cornerstone of its long-term investment appeal, providing a dependable recurring revenue stream and supporting sustained customer engagement. Costco ended fiscal 2026 with 84.1 million paid memberships, representing 3.8% growth, while total cardholders increased 3.6% to 150.4 million. Fourth-quarter membership fee income advanced 7.3% to approximately $1,850 million. Worldwide renewal rates improved 10 basis points sequentially to 89.8%, while U.S. and Canadian renewal rates reached 92.3%. The company is also attracting younger consumers, with members under 40 now representing more than a quarter of its membership base.

Growing adoption of Costco’s premium Executive membership tier provides a meaningful opportunity to strengthen customer engagement and increase spending per member. Executive members generally spend more and renew at higher rates than Gold Star members. Costco ended fiscal 2026 with 42.3 million paid Executive members, up 9.4% year over year. These members accounted for 75.6% of total sales. Management believes the combination of membership expansion, stronger Executive penetration and greater spending per member can sustain revenue growth. Targeted digital communications, enhanced membership benefits and personalized engagement initiatives should further reinforce customer loyalty and strengthen Costco’s ability to capture a larger share of household spending.

Costco’s expanding digital capabilities provide another compelling growth avenue as consumers increasingly prioritize convenience, faster fulfillment and seamless shopping experiences. The retailer is strengthening its omnichannel ecosystem through website and mobile application improvements, personalized product recommendations, and expanded delivery partnerships with Instacart, DoorDash and Uber Eats. These initiatives are helping attract younger shoppers and capture additional purchasing occasions beyond traditional warehouse visits. Digitally enabled sales exceeded $33 billion in fiscal 2026, growing more than 20%. Management indicated that third-party delivery sales are largely incremental, complementing rather than replacing warehouse purchases. Costco is also exploring opportunities in artificial intelligence-driven product discovery while improving online product visibility and customer engagement.

Costco’s expanding warehouse network and diversified ancillary businesses further strengthen its long-term growth prospects. The company ended fiscal 2026 with 939 warehouses worldwide and plans to open 33 locations in fiscal 2027, including five relocations. Its longer-term ambition of reaching approximately 30 net new warehouses annually highlights substantial opportunities across underserved U.S. markets and international regions. Alongside physical expansion, Costco continues to broaden its appeal through gasoline, pharmacy and travel services, which provide compelling reasons for members to engage more frequently with the brand. Management plans roughly $7.5 billion in fiscal 2027 capital expenditures, primarily supporting warehouse expansion and supply-chain improvements. These investments should strengthen Costco’s operating capabilities and support sustainable growth over the long term.

Costco Navigates Competitive Landscape as Peers Scale UpCostco's impressive sales figures are part of a larger retail picture where competition is intensifying. Rivals like Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) and Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) are investing in expanding their product assortments, enhancing supply-chain efficiency and upgrading in-store and digital experiences to capture greater market share. These retailers are also sharpening their value propositions through competitive pricing, private-label expansion and targeted promotional strategies.

Margins remain an area to monitor, as Costco continues to navigate rising costs related to healthcare, general liability, commodities, freight and tariffs. While the company has leveraged productivity initiatives and supply-chain efficiencies to mitigate some pressures, uncertainty around oil prices, tariffs and other input costs could weigh on margin performance.

Does Costco Tick the Boxes for Value Investing?Costco stock has climbed 11.2% year to date compared with the industry’s rise of 8.4%. A sneak peek into key retail peers' performance reveals that shares of Dollar General have tumbled 4.7% during the same time frame, while Target has surged 57.1%. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Despite Costco’s strong fundamentals, its premium valuation remains a key consideration for investors. The stock has commanded a premium multiple due to its consistency, brand strength and membership economics.

Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 41.55, higher than the industry’s ratio of 27.76. However, it is trading below its 12-month median level of 44.79, indicating some moderation in valuation. Costco is trading at a premium to Target (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 15.78) and Dollar General (15.32).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How Consensus Estimates Stack Up for CostcoThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.2% and 11.7%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7.1% rise in sales and 9.1% growth in earnings.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How to Play Costco Stock: Buy, Hold or Sell?Costco’s strong September sales, loyal membership base, expanding digital capabilities and warehouse growth plans reinforce its long-term investment appeal. However, its premium valuation, intensifying competition and lingering cost pressures warrant a measured approach despite encouraging earnings growth expectations. Existing investors may consider holding their positions to benefit from Costco’s long-term growth prospects, while prospective investors should wait for a more attractive entry point before initiating positions.

Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note rarely looks this appealing. Its yield reached 5.22% on Oct. 8, according to Federal Reserve data, the highest reading since March 2002. Costco Wholesale (COST +1.32%) offers a forward dividend yield of 0.6%.

Put $10,000 into each, and the Treasury hands you payouts of about $520 a year while Costco sends you around $60. Why bother?

But income is only one piece of an investment's return, and for long-term investors, it's often a small part.

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The hot dog doesn't get bigger Like Costco's famous hot dog and soda combo (still $1.50 after 41 years), Treasury coupons have a fixed value. A 10-year note's coupon rate is locked for 10 years. The interest you receive in 2036 will match next spring's payment to the penny, even after a decade of inflation.

Hold to maturity, and you get your original $10,000 back; it'll just buy less stuff than it does today. The coupon payouts you receive along the way will help, assuming the rate you locked in remains ahead of average inflation.

Rate changes only matter if you sell your Treasuries before maturity. No one will pay full price for your note if new Treasuries offer better rates, but your note will gain value when rates go down.

But Costco's dividend has grown 13.2% per year over the last five years. The company also has a habit of surprising shareholders with special dividends, such as the $15-per-share dividend it paid in January 2024. That one-time payment was roughly equivalent to 15 of the regular quarterly payouts at the time.

The business behind the stock Stocks let you own a small piece of an actual business. People work hard to increase the corporation's value, which over time lifts the stock price. No empire lasts forever, but Costco's story started decades ago, and it's still a market-beating growth stock.

Costco generated $303.2 billion in sales over the past 12 months, up 10.1% year over year. Earnings per share rose 13.9% over the same period. The company keeps markups low, with a gross margin of just 12.8%, and earns a large share of its operating profit from membership fees.

As a result, $10,000 invested in Costco stock 10 years ago would be worth $63,340 today. With reinvested dividends, you're looking at $74,980 instead:

COST data by YCharts

10-year Treasury notes yielded about 1.8% in October 2016. A $10,000 investment would pay out $11,800 in total over the same decade. That's your original $10,000 plus $1,800 in coupon payouts. Treasuries bought today will pay out roughly $5,200 over the next 10 years (plus the $10,000 return of principal), but that's still a forgettable gain next to Costco's long-term returns.

The catch Costco's stock isn't cheap, exposing investors to valuation risk. It trades at 46 times trailing earnings and 38.2 times forward estimates, which is a rich price for a company expected to grow earnings about 9.7% annually.

The stock gained just 2.8% over the past year, trailing the Treasury's yield, and sits 12.8% below its 52-week high as of Oct. 12.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Pick your cart If you need reliable income soon, the Treasury is a fine choice at 5.2%. But if you don't need the money for the next 10 years, Costco offers a few things that the Treasury note can't: a business that keeps growing, a dividend that keeps rising, and a long record of turning patient money into a much bigger pile.

Shares of membership-based retailer Costco Wholesale (COST -0.10%) closed at a record $1,094.32 on May 19. As I write, they trade near $942, about 14% below that peak.

Drops like this aren't new to Costco, and they've usually worked out for buyers. Counting from 2010 and using closing prices adjusted for dividends, Costco shares had fallen at least 14% from a record close nine times before this latest slide. A year after each drop first hit 14%, the stock was higher in seven of those.

Costco's latest sales update might give buyers a new reason to look, too. On Wednesday, Oct. 7, the retailer said that its comparable sales excluding gas and currency climbed 7.6% in September, up from 5.4% in August. And this eases the main worry I had about the business a week ago.

Image source: The Motley Fool. Image source: The Motley Fool.

Past dips have mostly paid offFor all nine drops, the median return a year after the stock first stood 14% below its record was around 21%, and the best, in 2021, was about 58%.

The two exceptions both came in 2022. A year after the stock's January and May drops, shares were down around 1% and 3%, respectively.

And it wasn't because the company stumbled. In fiscal 2022, which ended Aug. 28, 2022, Costco's comparable sales excluding gas and currency climbed around 11%, and its earnings per share grew about 17%. The stock fell anyway. In other words, its price-to-earnings ratio shrank.

It's worth noting that the record before 2010 is weaker. From 2000 through 2009, seven drops this big left the stock higher a year later just twice, in a stretch that included the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis.

Did September stop the slowdown?Costco's September report covered the five weeks ending Oct. 4, 2026, which started its fiscal 2027. Net sales climbed 13% year over year to around $30 billion.

But the number I follow most closely is comparable sales excluding gas and currency. It covers sales at warehouses and online businesses operating for over a year and removes swings in fuel prices and exchange rates, giving a clearer idea of how much more members are buying. That measure rose 7.6% in September, its fastest rate since May's 8% gain. In between, it slowed every month, slipping to 5.4% in August after 7% in June and 6.6% in July.

Some of the pickup comes from Labor Day, which was a week later than in 2025. Costco said the timing added a bit over 0.5 percentage points to September's comparable sales, after costing August a little less than 0.75 points. But even with both months adjusted for the holiday, the underlying rate rose from around 6% to about 7%.

The U.S. business did even better, with adjusted comparable sales up 8% in September against 5.6% in August. And the U.S. rise came on top of 5% adjusted growth in September 2025, so this wasn't just an easy comparison.

In my Oct. 4 piece, I wrote a September result around 7% might mean the slowdown had leveled off. It beat that.

Today's price looks more like 2022Costco's earnings per share grew 14% in fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 30, 2026) to $20.76. At roughly $942, shares cost about 45 times those earnings.

The starting valuation differed a lot among those nine past drops, and it seems to have mattered. Based on the previous fiscal year's earnings per share, the six drops that began under 40 times earnings were all followed by gains a year later, running from about 19% to 58%. The three that started over 40 times earnings (the two in 2022 and one in 2025) saw one gain of about 14% and two small losses.

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Sure, nine drops is a small sample, so I wouldn't read too much into that split. But today's price-to-earnings ratio of around 45 looks far more like the 2022 starting points, at about 43 and 46 times earnings, than the cheaper ones before them.

The sales slowdown I worried about a week ago reversed in September, which makes the case for the business stronger. The stock's valuation, though, is around where it was.

In the end, I think Costco's track record after big drops and its improving sales trend make the stock worth a look today. But because shares still cost around 45 times earnings, I'd buy gradually over the coming months rather than all at once. And I wouldn't count on a gain as big as the ones that followed the cheaper drops.

CoreCap Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report) by 23.1% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 6,297 shares of the retailer’s stock after acquiring an additional 1,180 shares during the period. CoreCap Advisors LLC’s holdings in Costco Wholesale were worth $5,732,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Other hedge funds and other institutional investors also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Sarasin & Partners LLP raised its stake in Costco Wholesale by 6.9% during the 2nd quarter. Sarasin & Partners LLP now owns 214,194 shares of the retailer’s stock worth $200,372,000 after buying an additional 13,795 shares during the period. Perryman Financial Advisory Inc. AD bought a new position in Costco Wholesale in the fourth quarter worth approximately $9,300,000. Nissay Asset Management Corp Japan grew its stake in Costco Wholesale by 4.1% in the second quarter. Nissay Asset Management Corp Japan now owns 158,416 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $148,193,000 after acquiring an additional 6,200 shares during the period. Hyperion Asset Management Ltd grew its stake in Costco Wholesale by 9.0% in the second quarter. Hyperion Asset Management Ltd now owns 68,762 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $64,325,000 after acquiring an additional 5,656 shares during the period. Finally, Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC increased its holdings in shares of Costco Wholesale by 15.0% during the second quarter. Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC now owns 22,766 shares of the retailer’s stock valued at $21,297,000 after acquiring an additional 2,974 shares in the last quarter. 68.48% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Insider Transactions at Costco Wholesale In other Costco Wholesale news, EVP Claudine Adamo sold 2,200 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $915.93, for a total transaction of $2,015,046.00. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 7,134 shares in the company, valued at $6,534,244.62. This trade represents a 23.57% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. 0.10% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Costco Wholesale Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ:COST opened at $947.92 on Friday. The company’s fifty day moving average price is $930.81 and its 200-day moving average price is $963.49. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, a current ratio of 1.06 and a quick ratio of 0.62. The firm has a market capitalization of $420.38 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.66, a PEG ratio of 4.03 and a beta of 0.88. Costco Wholesale Corporation has a one year low of $844.06 and a one year high of $1,096.50. Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, September 24th. The retailer reported $6.75 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $6.54 by $0.21. The company had revenue of $95.72 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $94.97 billion. Costco Wholesale had a net margin of 3.04% and a return on equity of 27.60%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 11.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $5.87 earnings per share. On average, equities research analysts anticipate that Costco Wholesale Corporation will post 22.86 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Costco Wholesale News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting Costco Wholesale this week:

Positive Sentiment: Strong customer traffic and transaction growth supported broad-based comparable-sales gains. U.S. comparable sales increased 12.5%, Canada rose 6.3%, and other international markets gained 10.8%, offering evidence that Costco’s membership model continues to attract shoppers. Costco sales rise in September as strong traffic drives start to fiscal 2027 Positive Sentiment: Digital sales grew approximately 19%, adding another growth channel and strengthening expectations for a solid start to fiscal 2027. The report also supports the view that Costco’s international operations remain an important contributor to future revenue growth. Costco’s September Sales Rise 13% on Strong Comps, Digital Growth Neutral Sentiment: Investors are paying a premium for this consistency: COST trades at roughly 45 times trailing earnings. The valuation reflects expectations for years of continued growth, leaving the stock particularly sensitive to any slowdown in traffic, memberships, or margins. What Are Costco Investors Betting On? Negative Sentiment: Some of the headline sales strength came from higher gasoline prices and other potentially lower-margin or one-time effects. Analysts therefore caution that the underlying 7.6% increase, while healthy, is less dramatic than the 13% reported-sales gain. Costco’s Sales Rebound in September Looks Great on Paper. Why There’s More to the Story. Wall Street Analyst Weigh In COST has been the subject of a number of analyst reports. HSBC upgraded shares of Costco Wholesale to a “buy” rating in a report on Friday, September 25th. Raymond James Financial dropped their target price on shares of Costco Wholesale from $1,100.00 to $1,050.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, September 25th. TD Cowen reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Costco Wholesale in a research report on Friday, September 25th. Mizuho decreased their price target on Costco Wholesale from $1,100.00 to $1,065.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, September 25th. Finally, Jefferies Financial Group reduced their price target on shares of Costco Wholesale from $1,130.00 to $1,100.00 in a research report on Friday, September 25th. Twenty-two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,046.27.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on COST

Costco Wholesale Company Profile (Free Report)

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a membership-based warehouse retail business under the Costco name. The company sells a broad selection of merchandise, including groceries, fresh foods, beverages, appliances, electronics, furniture, apparel, jewelry, hardware, and seasonal products. It also offers services such as gasoline, pharmacies, optical departments, hearing-aid centers, food courts, travel services, and business delivery in selected markets.

Costco markets many products under its private-label Kirkland Signature brand and sells merchandise through warehouse locations and e-commerce platforms.

See Also Five stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale Want Private-Market Access to Kalshi and Polymarket? Try This ETF Levi’s Stock Dip Reveals Value Opportunity Despite Q3 Headwinds PepsiCo Stock Looks Poised to Bottom With High Yield, Deep Value Alphabet’s $1.8 Billion Black Hills Deal Powers AI Data Center Push Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COST? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST – Free Report).

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You have to go all the way back to 2020 since Costco (COST +0.90%) last issued a stock split. A lot has happened with the country's leading operator of warehouse clubs in that time.

Its annual revenue has soared ninefold, from $32 billion to $303 billion. Its net income has skyrocketed 14-fold to $9.2 billion. Costco has gone on to issue a streak of annual dividend hikes that is now 22 years long. Perhaps more importantly for our split purposes, Costco has been nearly a 20-bagger since its 2-for-1 split more than 26 years ago. The shares were approaching $100 at the time, so bringing back the price tag just below $50 made sense at the time. It just makes sense to happen soon with Costco stock approaching $1,000.

Image source: Getty Images.

A splitting headache The irony is rich. Costco's appeal lies in its low prices, but the same can't be said for its share price. There are currently just 25 exchange-traded stocks in the U.S. market trading above Costco's $942 per-share price. Why has it refused to split its stock since the dot-com bubble popped?

Both Costco and the Price Co., which merged in 1993, had declared a pair of 2-for-1 or 3-for-2 splits on their own before the corporate combination. Splits were fashionable then, as ascending stocks approached triple digits. It's not really a requirement these days, in an era when odd lots and even fractional shares are available through a growing number of brokerage outlets. It doesn't mean that Costco can avoid the inevitable.

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Moving away from bulk-sized price points The timing seems ideal for Costco to split its shares in the coming weeks. Along with its perpetually rising quarterly dividend, the warehouse club chain has issued larger special distributions every two or three years. Its last one-time payout happened in December 2023, so its next declaration should happen before the end of this year.

Costco has momentum. It just wrapped up its strongest annual revenue growth in four fiscal years. Its bottom line is growing even faster. As a low-beta stock that is relatively recession-resistant, it's not likely that its stock will collapse if the economy starts to soften. Folks will just lean on Costco more for their essentials when money is harder to come by.

The stock's valuation isn't cheap, but Costco seems to always trade at a healthy premium to both the market and its own reliable growth rates. It doesn't have to bring its stock price all the way down to the high $40s the way it did 26 years ago. However, a 5-for-1 or even 10-for-1 stock split makes sense -- for a market that invests in dollars and cents.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

I don't want to wait a few paragraphs to answer the question posed in the headline. I would be stunned if Costco (COST +1.19%) doesn't declare a special dividend before the end of this year. In fact, I am confident enough to propose what I will do if Costco skimps on a one-time payout in 2026.

Did you see the 2006 movie Idiocracy? Well, I will stand outside of my local warehouse club, wearing a bib with my photo on it. I will repeatedly greet guests coming in, with a full-on monotone: "Welcome to Costco, I love you."

If you didn't see the movie, I'll wait.

Image source: Getty Images.

It's more than just pocket change History is my favorite teacher. Looking back over the past several years, there's a certain cadence to when Costco doles out its special distributions. Unlike the quarterly dividends -- which have been increased for 22 consecutive years -- the world's largest warehouse club operator has spent the last 14 years returning excess cash to investors every two or three years.

Here is the timeline for each of those five bonus payouts.

Dec. 27, 2023: $15 a share Dec. 1, 2020: $10 May 8, 2017: $7 Feb. 5, 2015: $5 Dec. 6, 2012: $7 There is no promise of a chunky -- and lately, growing -- distribution every two to three years. When Costco increased its membership fee in 2024, it was more than seven years removed from its last hike. Costco had raised prices on its Gold Star and Executive memberships every four to five years before that.

It's not the same, though. Maybe Costco was just trying to wait longer after the COVID-19 recovery process before boosting its annual cover charge. Special dividends are largely for handing over excess cash to investors, and there is no time like the present for that present.

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Costco had $15 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet at the end of fiscal 2023. Investors received $15 a share in a special distribution. It closed out fiscal 2026 with $21 billion in greenery on its balance sheet. Will it pay out a $21-per-share distribution come December? Will it check that back to $20 per share to keep the number round and give it some more expansion money?

Investors will win either way. In fact, maybe we can all win if this perennial safe stock skips the special dividend in the final three months of the year. It would signal bigger plans to build out its empire, particularly overseas, where fewer than a third of its stores are currently located. You would also win as I humiliate myself, greeting people on their way into a Miami Costco.

"Welcome to special dividend investing. I love you."

Among retail stocks, Costco Wholesale (COST +0.31%) reigns supreme. Over the last decade, it has crushed the S&P 500 on a total return basis, 624% to 324%. Even successful rival Walmart (WMT +0.78%) has only grown by 415% during that time.

But this year, Costco's stock has hit the skids. Over the last six months, its shares are down 9.3%, trailing the S&P 500's 17.3% gain. Yet revenue and net income continue to rise, and Costco's stores seem more popular than ever.

At this price, are Costco's shares too cheap to pass up? Or is this a sign of bad things to come? Here's why this "bargain" may not be all that it seems.

Image source: Getty Images.

Numbers can be deceiving Those numbers don't tell the whole story.

Yes, Costco's share price is cheaper than it was six months ago. Yes, its revenue, profits, and free cash flow have all increased over that time frame, meaning its valuation using trailing-12-month (TTM) metrics like the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio are all cheaper now than they were in March. But "cheaper" doesn't necessarily mean "cheap."

In fact, Costco's shares still trade at a sharp premium to its retail peers', whether that's in the general merchandise sector, the grocery sector, or even the electronics/appliances sector (all of which are served by Costco):

RetailerP/S Ratio (TTM)P/E Ratio (TTM)P/FCF Ratio (TTM)Costco1.3544.343.6Walmart1.1337.861.7Target0.6616.216.0Best Buy0.4414.610.5Kroger0.2532.016.0 Data source: YCharts.

Only Walmart is valued higher than Costco by any of these metrics, and then only on price-to-FCF.

In other words, even at its current share price, Costco stock is trading at a premium.

Image source: Getty Images.

A tricky retail environment The current economic situation hasn't been kind to retailers.

Recent tariff increases on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada have forced companies to decide whether to pass the entire tariff amount on to consumers or cut their margins on those products. Some of those price increases have resulted in lost sales, which leaves the retailers stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Meanwhile, record diesel fuel prices have increased the costs of shipping both imported and domestically produced goods, which also increases retailers' costs. Again, this puts them in a no-win situation of deciding between increasing prices or lowering their margins.

But Costco, which offers rock-bottom prices to its members, reported a 92.3% membership renewal rate for the U.S. and Canada in the most recent quarter, and overall paid membership growth of 3.8%, which is partly why its shares still trade at a premium, even in an unfriendly retail environment.

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Is Costco still a buy? Over the long term, Costco has excellent prospects for continued slow and steady growth. That said, given its elevated valuation, investors looking for faster growth may continue to exit the stock in the coming months.

Costco is still a valid pick for buy-and-hold investors, but even with its shares down by 11% over the last six months, it's still not cheap. There are more compelling growth opportunities in other sectors right now.

Key Takeaways Costco cut prices on several Kirkland Signature staples during the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter.Kirkland Signature typically saves members at least 15%-20% versus national-brand equivalents.Costco plans to reinvest most additional tariff-refund dollars it receives to enhance member value. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) is sharpening its value proposition through targeted price cuts on Kirkland Signature products, reinforcing its private label as a key member-value lever. Management said Kirkland Signature typically offers savings of at least 15%-20% versus national-brand equivalents while maintaining equal or better quality, giving Costco room to emphasize affordability without diluting the brand’s quality positioning.

During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco lowered prices across several everyday Kirkland items. KS Walnuts were reduced to $9.99 from $13.79, Colombian Whole Bean Coffee to $19.99 from $21.99, Dry Facial Towels to $18.99 from $19.99 and Coarse Black Pepper to $5.99 from $6.99. The company said its goal is to be the first to lower prices when opportunities emerge, keeping price leadership central to its merchandising strategy.

Part of this value push was supported by tariff refunds. Costco received $184 million in the quarter, including $174 million in refunds and $10 million in interest, and reinvested part of those proceeds in member value. Management said it intends to reinvest the majority of additional tariff-refund dollars it receives to enhance member values.

The key point is that Costco is using Kirkland Signature to reinforce pricing authority at the shelf. The brand’s widening assortment gives buyers more flexibility when vendor price increases or commodity pressures emerge. Management specifically described Kirkland as a useful tool for fighting back on higher costs and said reducing prices remains a continual focus for buyers. That keeps the private label closely tied to Costco’s broader value promise.

How Does Costco Stack Up Against Its Industry?Costco, which competes with Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) and Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) , has seen its shares drop 3.1% over the past three months compared with the industry’s 2.3% decline. While Dollar General shares have risen 2.3%, Target has jumped 23.8% over the same period.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Does Costco’s Current Valuation Suggest?From a valuation standpoint, Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 39.93, higher than the industry’s ratio of 27.16. However, the stock is trading below its 12-month median level of 44.99, indicating some moderation in valuation.

Costco is trading at a premium to Target (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 15.99) and Dollar General (14.42).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Do Earnings Estimates Signal for Costco?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.3% and 11.8%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7.2% rise in sales and 9.1% growth in earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current fiscal year has increased by 36 cents to $22.87 per share, while the estimate for the next fiscal year has risen by 45 cents to $24.94 per share over the past 30 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways Costco's ancillary businesses lifted gross margin, with comparable sales surging in the high 20s range.Gasoline reached record volumes as U.S. member household penetration hit an all-time high.Pharmacy and travel growth, including cruises, expanded Costco's member spending opportunities. Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (COST - Free Report) ancillary businesses have become a pivotal driver of member engagement, expanding the company’s share-of-wallet opportunity across its global member base. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the gross margin for ancillary and other businesses increased 23 basis points year over year and 32 basis points excluding gasoline inflation. Comparable sales in ancillary operations performed exceptionally well, surging in the high 20s percentage range, driven primarily by strong performance in gasoline, pharmacy and travel offerings.

Costco’s gasoline business reached a milestone in fiscal 2026, achieving record volumes as U.S. member household penetration hit an all-time high. Members saved an estimated $3.2 billion at the pump compared to regional market averages. To support throughput and accommodate volume growth, Costco expanded 26 high-volume U.S. gas stations.

The pharmacy department experienced nearly 20% sales growth, driven by digital options such as Rx Mobile Pay Ahead and Pickup Lockers, alongside specialized GLP-1 and fertility programs. These initiatives yielded double-digit script growth, helping offset Medicare Maximum Fair Price adjustments. Costco announced a partnership with SCAN Health Systems to develop Medicare Advantage benefits.

Meanwhile, Costco Travel achieved double-digit growth across vacation packages, cruises and car rentals. Cruise bookings alone expanded by 16%, with more than 750,000 members sent on cruises during the fiscal year. Together, these ancillary services deepen member loyalty and capture greater household spending beyond core merchandise categories.

How Does Costco Stack Up Against Its Industry?Costco, which competes with Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) and Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) , has seen its shares drop 4.3% over the past three months compared with the industry’s 2.5% decline. While Dollar General shares have risen 1.2%, Target has jumped 20.4% over the same period.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Does Costco’s Current Valuation Suggest?From a valuation standpoint, Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 40.02, higher than the industry’s ratio of 27.39. However, the stock is trading below its 12-month median level of 45.07, indicating some moderation in valuation.

Costco is trading at a premium to Target (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.08) and Dollar General (14.54).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Do Earnings Estimates Signal for Costco?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.3% and 11.8%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7.2% rise in sales and 9.1% growth in earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current fiscal year has increased by 36 cents to $22.87 per share, while the estimate for the next fiscal year has risen by 44 cents to $24.94 per share over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways Costco received $184M in Q4 tariff refunds and interest, a little over one-third of expected refunds.Tariff refunds, net of member-value reinvestment, provided Costco a nonrecurring 15-cent EPS benefit.Costco plans to reinvest most future tariff refunds in member value, primarily through lower prices. Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (COST - Free Report) fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results highlighted how the recovery of International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) tariffs could influence its earnings profile in fiscal 2027. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the company received $184 million related to IEEPA tariffs, comprising $174 million of refunds and $10 million of interest. Management said this represented a little more than one-third of the total refunds expected. Costco had already received a similar amount in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.

The earnings impact, however, will depend on how much of these proceeds Costco retains versus reinvests. In the fourth quarter, tariff refunds, net of partial reinvestment in member value, contributed a nonrecurring benefit of 15 cents per share. Excluding this benefit, net income and EPS increased 12.3% and 12.4%, respectively. Management highlighted that tariff refunds and related reinvestment added nine basis points to gross margin.

Management intends to reinvest the majority of future refunds in increased member value, primarily through lower prices. During the fourth quarter, such investments included reductions across produce, meat, beverages, home furnishings and hardware.

Fiscal 2027 earnings could see periodic benefits from additional refunds, but the net contribution may vary depending on the pace and magnitude of reinvestment. Costco has already indicated that it intends to reinvest the majority of future refunds and separately disclose their net quarterly impact, making the distinction between reported earnings and underlying operating performance particularly important.

How Tariff Refunds Are Affecting Walmart and TargetWalmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) is also using tariff refunds as a temporary earnings and margin benefit while directing much of the proceeds back into pricing. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, Walmart said tariff refunds helped lift gross profit and operating income, with operating income receiving an approximately 750-basis-point net benefit after price investments. Walmart expects to continue prioritizing the remaining tariff refunds toward customer experience and price investments in the second half.

Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) saw an even more pronounced second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings benefit from tariff refunds. Target recognized $994 million of pretax tariff refunds, which added $752 million to net earnings and $1.65 to earnings per share. Target said the refunds contributed 3.7 percentage points to both gross margin and operating margin in the quarter. Its full-year guidance includes about 90 basis points of operating-margin benefit from second-quarter refunds, while excluding any potential future tariff refunds.

What the Latest Metrics Say About CostcoCostco has seen its shares tumble 2.5% over the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 2.2%. 
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 40.59, higher than the industry’s ratio of 27.39. However, it is trading below its 12-month median level of 45.14, indicating some moderation in valuation.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 7.9% and 10.4%, respectively. For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate indicates a 7% rise in sales and 9.5% growth in earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current fiscal year has increased by 7 cents to $22.57 per share, while the estimate for the next fiscal year has risen by 25 cents to $24.71 per share over the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Costco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways Costco plans 33 warehouse openings in fiscal 2027 as it targets 30 net new locations annually.Digitally enabled sales topped $33 billion in fiscal 2026 and grew more than 20%.Costco plans to reinvest most tariff refunds into member value, including price reductions. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) closed fiscal 2026 with management emphasizing warehouse expansion, deeper member engagement and digital growth as key priorities for the year ahead. The company plans to accelerate openings while continuing investments in supply chain capacity and member value.

The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $6.60, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.48. Total revenues of $95.72 billion surpassed the consensus mark of $94.82 billion.

COST Sets a Higher Warehouse Growth TargetPresident and CEO Ron Vachris said that Costco opened 25 net new warehouses in fiscal 2026, bringing the worldwide total to 939. Management plans 33 openings in fiscal 2027, including five relocations, as it works toward 30 net new warehouses annually.

Expansion opportunities include new and existing U.S. markets alongside international growth. Fiscal 2027 plans include four buildings in Europe, five in Canada and one in Mexico, with additional Asian and Australian locations in the fiscal 2028 pipeline.

CFO Gary Millerchip said that Costco sees a five-to-10-year path for maintaining the 30-new-warehouse annual target. Fiscal 2027 capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $7.5 billion, up from $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026, reflecting warehouse and supply-chain investment.

Costco Sees Quality in Membership TrendsMembership remained a major Q&A focus. Costco ended the quarter with 84.1 million paid members, up 3.8% year over year, while paid executive memberships rose 9.4% to 42.3 million.

A Morgan Stanley analyst questioned the narrowing spread between membership and unit growth. Millerchip pointed to continued growth in new sign-ups, record executive-member penetration and improving renewal rates as indicators of member engagement.

A Truist analyst also pressed management on slowing membership growth. Millerchip characterized recent growth rates as more representative of current trends, while noting that future Asian openings could periodically produce outsized membership gains.

COST Leans Into Younger, Digital MembersVachris said that Costco's member base under age 40 has grown nearly 60% since COVID and now represents more than one-quarter of total membership. Management said that these customers initially spend less but increase spending as households and incomes mature.

Digitally enabled sales exceeded $33 billion in fiscal 2026 and increased more than 20%. Costco also expanded its Uber Eats relationship nationwide and broadened its DoorDash partnership in the United States.

Millerchip said that third-party delivery has generally generated incremental shopping occasions rather than displacing warehouse trips. Management also reported that traffic from AI searches grew at a triple-digit rate for the second consecutive quarter, albeit from a low base.

Costco Keeps Value at the Center of PricingTariff refunds created another important theme. Costco received $184 million in fiscal fourth-quarter refunds and interest, representing slightly more than one-third of expected refunds.

Millerchip said that Costco had already received a similar amount in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Management intends to reinvest the majority of refund dollars into increased member value.

That approach included price reductions across produce, meat, beverages and selected nonfood merchandise. Management framed the reinvestment as consistent with Costco's broader strategy of using lower costs and efficiencies to support member value.

COST Balances Inflation and Margin PressuresReported gross margin declined 11 basis points year over year to 11.02%, although it increased 20 basis points excluding gas inflation. Core-on-core margins, excluding tariff refunds and reinvestment, improved across fresh, nonfoods and food and sundries.

Inflation remained in the low-single digits. Millerchip highlighted higher memory costs in consumer electronics and petroleum-related pressures, while food and fresh trends remained broadly consistent with recent quarters.

SG&A improved 27 basis points to 8.94%. In response to a Bank of America analyst, Millerchip said that general liability and health-care costs remained pressure points, but management did not identify a new major obstacle to continued expense leverage at comparable-sales growth around 6%.

Costco's Priorities Heading Into Fiscal 2027Management's posture centered on expanding physical capacity while increasing engagement across digital, delivery, pharmacy, gas and other services. Costco also plans continued supply-chain spending to support warehouse and e-commerce growth.

The earnings call also showed continued attention to membership quality rather than membership growth alone, with executive penetration, renewal rates, digital engagement and spending per member central to management's framework for fiscal 2027.

What COST's Zacks Signals IndicateCOST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), alongside a Value Score of D, a Growth Score of B, a Momentum Score of C and a VGM Score of C. The Style Scores rank stocks from A through F, with A and B representing the stronger grades. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Growth Score is therefore COST's strongest individual style signal, while its Value Score is weaker and Momentum and VGM readings sit in the middle. The Zacks Rank indicates a Hold designation, and the Rank can change as earnings estimates are revised following the just-reported results.

California can’t get enough of Costco.

The wildly-popular warehouse club is continuing its nationwide expansion — with yet another new location coming soon to the Golden State.

A social media video shows the construction of a new Costco store in the NorCal city of Vallejo — set to open in November.

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A new Costco is under construction in Vallejo, California. Instagram/ Les Edwins The news comes as rival big-box store Sam’s Club makes moves to expand its California footprint — with the first of more new locations opening recently in Lathrop, near Stockton in the San Joaquin Valley.

Costco already operates a store in Vallejo, which will be replaced by its new, larger location.

Local fans celebrated the upcoming opening on social media.

“Vallejo can use any sort of upgrade,” one commenter wrote of the embattled Bay Area burg.

Costco says the location, which will replace another location already in Vallejo, will open in November. Instagram/ Les Edwins

Costco is also set to open a new location in Camarillo, California on October 30. Getty Images

The superstore chain is planning to open a total of 33 new locations across the U.S. in Canada in the 2027 fiscal year. Luiz C. Ribeiro for New York Post “It’s good because the old one had limited parking,” said another commenter.

Some were skeptical about the November opening timeline based on current progress.

“It’s a great thing for Vallejo but no way will it even open this year. Construction has so much left to do on exterior alone not to mention putting up interior racks, freezers, etc,” said one commenter.

“Ain’t no way they finish that in a month or 2,” said another.

The new store comes as Costco prepares to open a massive new location in Camarillo, California on October 30.

Costco confirmed the opening Vallejo location in their latest earnings call earlier this week.

The bulk seller plans to open a total of 33 new stores in the 2027 fiscal year. Costco CEO Ron Vachris said the company plans to spend about $7.5 billion on the new locations.

The chain will open several other locations in October, including stores in Lee’s Summit, Missouri; The Colony, Texas; Amherst, New York and Lawrence, Kansas.

In November, Costco will open nine more locations, with U.S. stores in in South Meridian, Idaho; Chandler, Arizona; Newport News, Virginia and Franklin, Wisconsin.

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Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) on Thursday posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results.

Costco Wholesale reported quarterly earnings of $6.75 per share, which beat the consensus estimate of $6.52. Quarterly revenue came in at $95.72 billion, which beat the Street estimate of $94.86 billion.

Costco shares fell 0.9% to $888.50 in pre-market trading.

These analysts made changes to their price targets on Costco following earnings announcement.

Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma maintained the stock with an Outperform rating and cut the price target from $1,144 to $1,143. Mizuho analyst David Belinger maintained the stock with an Outperform rating and slashed the price target from $1100 to $1065. Considering buying COST stock? Here’s what analysts think:

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After-hours trading was lively in Costco Wholesale (COST -0.91%) following Thursday's market close. The company released its fourth-quarter and full-year results for fiscal 2026, and investors transacting in the retailer's stock seemed evenly split between bears and bulls. The shares were essentially trading sideways late that evening.

Frame No. 4 was a good one for Costco. An area where its performance really stood out was digital sales. Let's evaluate the quarter generally, and then explore what made digital such a star during the period.

Image source: Getty Images.

Double-digit improvementsIn the quarter, Costco earned $95.7 billion in revenue, up a meaty 11% year over year. This comprised net sales of almost $93.9 billion (also up 11%) and membership fees paid by its shoppers totaling nearly $1.9 billion. The latter figure grew by 7%, which is notably lower than in recent quarters.

Total comparable sales rose by 6.7% when excluding the impact of volatile gasoline prices and foreign exchange. Breaking this down by region, adjusted "comps" at the company's U.S. warehouses grew by 7.2%, those in Canada advanced 4.6%, and the "other international" stores sat between the two with growth of 6.2%.

Net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) also headed north. It rose by nearly 15% to just under $3 billion, or $6.75 per share.

Like a raft of other U.S. businesses, however, the company benefited from tariff refunds received in the quarter (per a Supreme Court decision, the Trump administration had to compensate companies like Costco that paid the aggressive tariffs the president imposed last year). The refunds, net of management's reinvestment into its business, amounted to $0.15 per share. Stripping out the $0.15 from the full $6.75 earnings per share (EPS) figure and comparing it to last year's number results in a more organic growth rate of 12%.

Regardless, both headline metrics beat the consensus analyst estimates. Costco-following prognosticators were collectively modeling just under $94.9 billion on the top line, and EPS of $6.55.

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The power of digitalCircling back to comparable sales, Costco's figure for its digital commerce surged 19.5% higher, which rises to 19.8% when adjusted for foreign exchange (but not for gasoline, as of course that isn't sold online). Without digital, those overall company comps would have been notably less impressive.

The retailer is something of an outlier in its industry, as it remains very focused on its brick-and-mortar stores. Yet even with that strong shop-in-person culture, its members are whipping out their phones and firing up their browsers to get Costco products shipped to their doors.

Somewhat frustratingly, management doesn't provide exact dollar amounts for digital sales. What it does present is information on where that commerce is directed, and that's enlightening. So in the order presented by the company, these are the top six digital sales categories:

PharmacyHome furnishingsSmall electronicsHardwareHousewaresDomestics (home textiles, bedding, curtains, towels, etc.)Basically, what I think we're seeing here is a dividing of the Costco shopping experience, with members treating in-person as basically a grocery store or supermarket visit (we do like to test the avocados and see how the ground beef looks, after all). Digital, meanwhile, is reserved for larger items that might be harder to haul out of the warehouses, or more occasional purchases like medicines, electronics, or sets of towels.

Lofty expectationsIt seems that investors were hoping for a more blowout quarter from Costco. After all, it routinely produces fundamental growth rates that are high by retail industry standards and often beats analyst projections. To a degree, the company's elevated share price and comparably high valuations justify this expectation.

Personally, I'd be more bullish on Costco's future, particularly given how well it performed in the digital space. Keep in mind that this is a company that, unusually for its industry, hardly toots its horn at all about online commerce. Even with that near-complete absence of hype, members are logging in and doing some of their shopping online. I can see that being a long-term driver of growth as the proportion of younger, digital-native shoppers grows within the membership ranks.

Costco (COST - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $6.6 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $5.87 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1.85%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this warehouse club operator would post earnings of $4.91 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.93, delivering a surprise of +0.41%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Costco, which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, posted revenues of $95.72 billion for the quarter ended August 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.95%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $86.16 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Costco shares have added about 4.9% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.6%.

What's Next for Costco?While Costco has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Costco was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $4.82 on $72.96 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $22.50 on $326.27 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Retail - Discount Stores is currently in the top 13% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, Deckers (DECK - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2026.

This maker of Ugg footwear is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.82 per share in its upcoming report, which represents no change from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Deckers' revenues are expected to be $1.51 billion, up 5.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) has had a busy stretch that included a major grocery delivery expansion, an autonomous vehicle regulatory milestone and a regional grocery partnership.

Uber stock is trading flat. Where are UBER shares going? Uber Expands Costco Delivery Partnership to 47 StatesOn September 16, Uber and Costco expanded their delivery partnership on Uber Eats to 47 states, up from 17, extending Costco delivery access to nearly 600 locations nationwide. The expansion builds on a partnership that first launched in 2024, adding to Uber Eats’ growing grocery footprint, which has also added Wegmans and nearly 2,000 Ahold Delhaize USA stores.

“We are thrilled to expand our partnership with Costco nationwide, giving Costco members more ways to shop and bringing the brand’s storied selection and value to more consumers,” said Andrew Macdonald, President and COO of Uber.

WeRide, Uber Secure Spain’s First Autonomous Vehicle PermitOn September 10, WeRide, Uber and AVOMO, the autonomous vehicle division of Moove Cars Group, announced they received Spain’s first national permit for Level 4 autonomous passenger vehicles to operate on public roads, granted by Spain’s Directorate General of Traffic in collaboration with the Regional Government of Madrid. The authorization marks a regulatory milestone toward deploying autonomous rides in the country.

Uber Eats Adds 375 Wakefern StoresOn September 9, Uber Eats and Wakefern Food Corp. announced that customers can now shop more than 375 Wakefern supermarket locations across the Northeast through Uber Eats, spanning banners including ShopRite, Price Rite Marketplace, The Fresh Grocer, and Fairway Market, among others.

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Uber Shares Trade FlatUBER Price Action: At the time of publication, Uber shares are trading 0.12% higher at $69.50, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Retail giant Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) could show the positives and negatives of higher gas prices when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results Thursday after market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

• Costco Wholesale stock is trading near recent lows. What’s ahead for COST stock?

Costco Q4 Earnings EstimatesAnalysts expect Costco to report fourth-quarter revenue of $94.82 billion, up from $86.16 billion in last year’s fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in six straight quarters and in seven of the past 10 quarters overall.

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Analysts expect Costco to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $6.53, up from $5.87 in last year’s fourth quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in five straight quarters and in eight of the past 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are SayingFreedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods says the key things for Costco’s quarter are comparable sales, membership growth and "the impact of higher fuel prices" on margins.

"It may also give us a strong look at consumer spending habits," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods says Costco stock has moved an average of +/- 2.73% after recent earnings releases.

Looking at the Costco chart, Woods says there is a near-term downtrend that saw shares break to new lows. Woods says there is support at the $850 level, which is around 5% below current levels.

"This is my area of concern. It could also be a great spot to enter for the long-term investor but also dangerous if it fails to hold."

Here are recent analyst ratings on Costco and their price targets:

BTIG: Maintained Buy rating, with price target of $1,125 Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform rating, with price target of $1,160 Bank of America Securities: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $1,200 to $1,095 Key Items to WatchCostco stock has struggled in 2026, with shares recently hitting their lowest level since January. Gas prices and membership commentary could help turn things around.

Higher gas prices are one of the key areas watched by investors and analysts when it comes to Costco. The company reported record gas volumes during the third quarter.

Consumers who have memberships with Costco can get a discount on gas at the retailer’s gas stations.

This surge in usage of the gas stations could increase visits to the warehouses as well, which could lead to incremental shopping revenue.

A report from Placer.ai shows Costco having 8.2% year-over-year visitor growth during the second quarter of the calendar year. Costco’s fourth fiscal quarter covers part of May, all of June and all of July.

Costco’s visitor increases for the second quarter outpaced rivals BJ’s (4.9%) and Sam’s Club (+4.7%), alongside retail giants Target (+4.7%) and Walmart (0.7%).

The retailer’s traffic was up 9% in May, 7.8% in June, and 8.3% in July on a year-over-year basis, according to the report.

The rise in gas prices may also have an impact on membership revenue, which is the company’s high-margin, high-renewal segment. With gas savings a major reason to sign-up for an account at Costco, membership growth may be higher than in past quarters.

Costco Stock Price ActionCostco stock traded down 0.36% at $896.14 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $844.06 to $1,096.50. Costco stock is up 5.2% year-to-date, with shares trading at their lowest level since January.

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Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST, XETRA:CTO) retained Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)'s Buy rating despite a price target cut, as rising supply chain costs prompted a more cautious margin outlook.

In September 16 trading, shares fell to $900.49, while the broker maintained its "buy" rating and cut its price target to $1,095 from $1,200.

The bank forecasts fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.52 per share versus $6.55 consensus, incorporating 11.3% sales growth, a 10-basis-point gross margin decline and 20-basis-point operating expense leverage.

Its revised target applies a multiple of 48 times estimated financial year 2027 earnings, down from 53 times, reflecting greater caution about margins amid rising supply chain costs.

Still, US comparable sales excluding gasoline grew 7.2% in the fourth quarter versus 6.8% in the third, supporting the bank's confidence in continued market share gains.

The broker expects membership growth to normalize at 4% to 5% over the medium term after fewer Asian warehouse openings and moderating digital signups slowed growth.

Costco's value strategy and higher-income customer base underpin the bank's "buy" stance, while new membership perks and the Kirkland brand could help attract additional members.

Any fourth-quarter tariff refunds could provide extra funding to keep prices competitive, the broker said, after Costco largely mitigated tariff exposure across its general merchandise business last year.

Bank of America sees scope for a special dividend announcement over the next few quarters, supported by its projected fourth-quarter cash balance of $20.4 billion.

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