Jim Cramer called the September market open unholy, rattled off geopolitical chaos, and then named exactly one stock worth buying above $200. Whether the fundamentals behind that call survive the noise is a harder question than it looks.
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Jim Cramer opened Squawk on the Street on the first trading day of September with a market backdrop he described in blunt terms. Two ships had been fired on in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury yields were pushing higher across the curve, and diesel prices were climbing amid a supply picture already strained by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity and U.S. refiners operating near full utilization. Cramer called the combination “unholy” and said the AI trade had gone nowhere for about a year. Then he offered a single actionable idea.
“Chevron over 200 is just it’s a steal here david,” he told David Faber, framing it around a distinction worth holding onto: “We are in a situation where the prism is negative, the noise is negative, the signal is positive.” That is the analytical spine of this piece. The question for an investor is whether Chevron (NYSE:CVX | CVX Price Prediction) deserves a bid because refining margins are widening on a disruption, or because the underlying business generates cash regardless of where crude settles next week.
What Actually Happened at Chevron Last Quarter Chevron’s Q2 earnings report was the strongest the company has delivered in years. Adjusted EPS came in at $6.06 on revenue of $67.20 billion, with net income up 384.82% year over year and free cash flow of $18.095 billion. Worldwide production climbed 20% year over year to 4,070 MBOED.
Downstream is where the disruption thesis intersects the fundamentals. U.S. refinery utilization hit 97%, and downstream earnings jumped to $4.87 billion from $737 million a year earlier. Chevron booked $1.4 billion in favorable timing effects and cut total debt by $8.41 billion in the quarter alone.
The Hess integration is running ahead of plan. Management reached its $3 billion structural cost reduction target six months ahead of schedule and captured $1.5 billion in Hess-related synergies, roughly 50% above the initial target. CFO Eimear Bonner said the savings are durable because they are “built into the business.”
Mike Wirth’s read on refining aligns with what Faber flagged on air. He said “Products are tighter than crude around the world, and that’s why cracks have widened out,” and expected “upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that.” Full detail sits in Chevron’s 8-K filing with the SEC.
The 20-year, 2.67-gigawatt power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for a West Texas data center reframes Chevron as more than a pure crude call, because contracted power cash flows are insulated from Brent curve swings.
Where the Disruption Case Gets Uncomfortable Cramer’s positive signal rests partly on refined-product tightness that could reverse quickly. WTI has been swinging hard: from $114.58 on April 7 to $83.90 on August 25, down 8.5% in a month. Geopolitical crack spreads unwind the moment shipping lanes clear.
September seasonality is real but overrated as a standalone reason to avoid energy. Refinery turnaround season can tighten distillate further, and EIA data show refinery utilization near 0.92-0.95 in recent months, leaving little slack.
The stock has already moved. CVX is up 42.32% year-to-date and 8.15% over the past month, closing at $211.05. Buying above $200 means paying up for a quarter that has already been rewarded.
The dividend is what makes the wait tolerable. The next payment is $1.78 on September 10, with an annualized forward of $7.12. Chevron has raised the quarterly payout every year since 2024.
Cramer’s own hedge, that “the AI trade… has not been a good one for quite some time”, is why an integrated major with a Microsoft power contract is a rotation candidate rather than a defensive parking spot.
Is CVX Stock a Buy? Chevron trades at a market cap of around $414 billion with a P/E near 34x, richer than Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which trades at a P/E of roughly 23x and a market cap of $676.62 billion. Exxon’s Guyana ramp and 43 consecutive years of dividend growth arguably make it the cleaner compounder.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the higher-beta upstream play, up 48.63% YTD, targeting a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029. It offers more torque to crude and less downstream ballast.
Shell (NYSE:SHEL) missed Q2 EPS badly at $1.92 due to Qatar disruption, even as refinery utilization ran at 102%. Its LNG optionality is real; its earnings volatility is, too.
Chevron sits in the middle: less commodity-beta than Conoco, richer than Exxon, and more integrated than Shell right now. The Hess synergies, contracted Microsoft cash flows, and cost program give it a signal that outlasts any tanker headline. Cramer’s framing that the noise is negative and the signal positive holds up under scrutiny, but the entry price matters and CVX has already run hard.
The setup looks constructive, with the understanding that the near-term catalyst is disruption-driven and the long-term case rests on Hess, cost discipline, and power. Those seeking pure crude beta may find more torque in Conoco.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
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#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.8% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
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The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
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Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips is primarily involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Considering proved reserves and production, the company is among the largest explorers and producers in the world. The company, founded in 1875, has a strong presence across conventional and unconventional plays in 15 countries. ConocoPhillips’ low-risk and cost-effective operations are spread across North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
COP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Additionally, the company could be a top pick for growth investors. COP has a Growth Style Score of A, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 71.3% for the current fiscal year.
For fiscal 2026, six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.98 to $10.55 per share. COP boasts an average earnings surprise of +7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, COP should be on investors' short list.
Goldman Sachs builds its Conviction List by identifying stocks where analysts hold their highest confidence in outperformance, and this month's screen turned up five dividend payers with yields that income investors rarely find attached to names this established.
Goldman Sachs is a leading investment firm on Wall Street and worldwide. Its research team continues to deliver the best ideas for institutional and high-net-worth clients across the investment spectrum, and we expect it to do so for years to come. Founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs is the world’s second-largest investment bank by revenue and is ranked 36th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest U.S. corporations by total revenue.
The Wall Street firm offers financing, advisory services, risk distribution, and hedging for its institutional and corporate clients. It also provides investment advice, portfolio management, and trade execution for institutions and individuals across public and private markets. At 24/7 Wall St., we have followed the company’s research for 15 years to bring our readers top stock ideas. One of our favorite avenues is the firm’s Conviction List of top picks, which we review and often update monthly. We screened the August Conviction List for the highest-yielding stocks among its top picks. Five look like outstanding ideas not only to generate passive income but also to deliver strong total return potential.
Why Do We Cover Goldman Sachs Conviction List Dividend Stocks?
The Goldman Sachs Conviction List is a curated list of stocks that the firm’s research team believes are highly likely to outperform the market. It’s a tool for investors to identify stocks with strong growth potential and is frequently updated to reflect changes in market conditions and company performance. The list aims to identify stocks where Goldman Sachs analysts have the “highest level of conviction” in their outperformance.
UPS United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS | UPS Price Prediction) announced last year that it would cut its shipping volume for e-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) by more than 50% by the second half of 2026, part of UPS’s broader strategy to focus on more profitable, less risky business segments. The delivery giant remains one of the best ideas among the top dividend picks, with a dividend yield now at 6.43%.
The company faced headwinds from discontinuing its Amazon business and expectations of slower economic growth. While UPS has never trimmed its dividend since listing in 1999, that track record offers reassurance rather than a guarantee; growth may pause, but a cut remains off the table for now.
UPS provides integrated logistics solutions to customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its segments include:
U.S. Domestic Package International Package The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of domestic air and ground package transportation services within the United States. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day, and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. UPS’s ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments.
The International Package segment comprises its small package operations in Europe, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa, Canada, Latin America, and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions include forwarding, logistics, and other services.
Goldman Sachs has a $132 target price, a 29% gain from current levels.
Citizens Financial Citizens Financial Group (NYSE: CFG) is one of the nation’s oldest and largest financial institutions. Founded in 1828 and offering a dependable 2.56% dividend, this bank is a top choice for investors. It operates as a bank holding company, providing retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, corporations, and institutions in the United States.
The company operates in two segments. The Consumer Banking segment offers:
Deposit products Mortgage and home equity lending products Credit cards Business loans Wealth management and investment services Auto, education, and point-of-sale finance loans Digital deposit products This segment serves customers through telephone service centers and its online and mobile platforms.
The Commercial Banking segment provides various financial products and solutions, including:
Lending and leasing Deposit and treasury management services Foreign exchange, interest rate, and commodity risk management solutions Syndicated loans, corporate finance Mergers and acquisitions Debt and equity capital markets services This segment serves corporate banking, healthcare, technology, asset finance, franchise finance, leasing, asset-based lending, commercial real estate, mid-corporate, and private equity sponsor industries.
The Goldman Sachs price target is $84, a 14.3% gain from current levels.
ConocoPhillips The big always gets bigger, and this company completed a $22.5 billion purchase of Marathon Oil in November 2024. This deal added high-quality assets, particularly in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales, to the company’s portfolio. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production company with a solid dividend yield of 2.55%.
Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The Lower 48 segment comprises operations in the 48 contiguous states of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia, and commercial operations.
The Europe, Middle East, and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in:
The Norwegian sector of the North Sea The Norwegian Sea Qatar Libya Equatorial Guinea United Kingdom The Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, and Australia, as well as commercial operations in China, Singapore, and Japan. The Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
Jefferies has a $146 target price, a 13% gain.
TPG This asset management company has been hit hard by industry concerns, yet it pays a strong 4.15% dividend yield and has rallied sharply off the 52-week lows. TPG (NASDAQ: TPG) is an alternative asset management company that invests across a diversified set of strategies, including private equity, impact, credit, real estate, and market solutions.
It consists of six multi-strategy investment platforms:
Capital Growth Impact Credit Real Estate Market Solutions The Capital platform focuses on control-oriented private equity investments, and its Capital platform products include:
TPG Capital TPG Healthcare Partners TPG Asia Its Growth platform products include:
TPG Growth TPG Tech Adjacencies TPG Life Sciences Innovation TPG Emerging Companies Asia TPG Sports The Impact platform products include:
The Rise Funds TPG Rise Climate TPG Rise Climate Transition Infrastructure TPG Rise Climate Global South Initiative TPG NEXT Its Credit platform products include:
TPG Credit Solutions TPG Direct Lending TPG Asset-Based Finance TPG CLOs TPG Multi-Asset Credit Goldman Sachs has a price target of $68, with 30.7% upside potential.
Tyson Foods With well-known products and a solid business model, this is a great idea now, paying a solid 3.70% dividend. Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) is a food company with a portfolio of products and brands, including Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, State Fair, Aidells, and ibp.
Its Beef segment includes operations to process live-fed cattle and fabricate dressed beef carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts and case-ready products. The Pork segment includes operations related to processing live market hogs and fabricating pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal cuts and case-ready products. The Chicken segment includes domestic operations to raise and process live chickens, purchase raw materials for fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products, and sell specialty products.
The Prepared Foods segment includes operations to manufacture and market frozen and refrigerated food products, as well as logistics to move products through the supply chain.
The Goldman Sachs target price is $72, representing a strong 33% gain.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Venezuela sits on a staggering share of the world's proven oil reserves, and a new U.S. deal just handed American companies a major stake in them. But one energy expert says investors may be wildly misjudging when any of that…
CNBC’s Brian Sullivan walked viewers through the announced U.S.-Venezuela oil arrangement Monday, delivering a simple message for investors: the headline reserve number is enormous, and the timeline to real production might not be as long as some would expect.
“Venezuela, 65 billion barrels proven reserves on the part of this deal. Venezuela obviously has more. The U.S. under this would control 55% of that,” Sullivan said, framing a reported 25-year lease structure valued at $100 billion-plus in investment by U.S. energy companies.
The announcement, covered Monday morning on CNBC, names three U.S. majors as prospective participants: Chevron (NYSE:CVX | CVX Price Prediction), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). Sullivan emphasized the physical and legal structure remains unsettled. “The report is that this is going to be 55% controlled by the United States, and private companies are going to be a part of that. We don’t know the exact physical structure, legal structure,” he said.
65 Billion Barrels in the Ground, but Only 1.2 Million Produced per Day Venezuela holds more than 300 billion barrels in total proven reserves, and this agreement carves out just 65 billion. Yet the country’s ability to lift, transport, and sell that oil has eroded for decades.
“Venezuela has been in a rolling 30-year production collapse. Venezuela was one of the biggest oil producers in the world. It was the richest country in Latin America 30 years ago, not even close. 1997, they peaked out at about 3.2 million barrels per day on average of production. Right now, doing about 1.2,” Sullivan said. EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook shows Venezuelan output in a similar range, with recent quarterly figures near 1.0 million barrels per day.
Sullivan had a blunt message on the feasibility of getting usage from the oil: “This oil is going to sit under the ground if there’s no capital and expertise to pull it out.“ On timing: “If this deal does happen, if this progresses, you’re talking years before we extract any significant volume of oil from Venezuela. Everything is dilapidated.”
The U.S. Could Control 55% Under a 25-Year Deal Under the announced structure, U.S. entities would control 55% of the 65 billion-barrel carveout under a 25-year lease. Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, said Venezuelans would receive around $200 billion in sales tax revenue.
Sullivan raised broader questions about who controls the Venezuelan counterparty and legal complications that could weigh on implementation. Any operator would demand multi-year security and legal guarantees before committing capital, and why such guarantees can be fragile across leadership changes.
Former Chevron Executive Warned About This Exact Problem Sullivan’s reporting arrives three days after CNBC’s August 28 interview with Ali Moshiri, CEO of Amos Global Energy and former President of Chevron Africa and Latin America. Moshiri backed the strategic logic, arguing Venezuelan barrels bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea choke points.
He advocated a public-private partnership because Venezuela’s heavy and extra-heavy crude requires specialized technology the country has lost after roughly 15 years outside global markets. He thinks: “the idea is great, the challenge is going to be implementation,” with majors likely to move slowly on entry protocols while smaller firms move faster.
What the Venezuela Deal Means for Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips The 65 billion-barrel headline makes the Venezuela deal look transformative, but with production still around 1.2 million barrels per day and infrastructure badly degraded, those reserves could take years and enormous amounts of capital to reach global markets. For Chevron, Exxon, and ConocoPhillips investors, the story now shifts to whether the deal can be implemented and when.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
High crude prices, although favorable for upstream operations, have been hurting the integrated energy company’s refining operations. The slowdown in production growth of crude oil will probably limit earnings from upstream operations. Further, the rising demand for renewables makes the outlook of the Zacks Oil & Gas US Integrated industry gloomy.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) , Occidental (OXY - Free Report) and National Fuel Gas Company (NFG - Free Report) are the energy companies that could sail through the challenging business scenario.
About the Industry The Zacks Oil & Gas US Integrated industry comprises companies primarily involved in upstream and midstream energy businesses. The upstream operations involve oil and natural gas exploration and production in the prolific shale plays of the United States. The integrated energy companies are also engaged in midstream businesses through gathering and processing facilities, along with transportation pipeline networks and storage sites. Overall, the upstream business is positively correlated with oil and gas prices. The produced commodity volumes are transported through midstream assets, generating stable fee-based revenues. The integrated energy players in the United States also have access to downstream operations wherein the transported oil volumes are converted to finished products, comprising gasoline, natural gas liquids and diesel, through refining activities.
3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Industry Higher Crude Prices Raise Feedstock Costs: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading at more than $85 per barrel, according to data from oilprice.com, owing to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Also, in its latest short-term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration mentioned its expectation for the WTI oil price this year at $80.88 per barrel, higher than $65.40 last year. The high crude pricing environment is hurting the refining business of the integrated energy players as the input costs to produce final products like gasoline have increased drastically.
Slowdown in Production Growth: Energy companies in the United States are increasingly focusing on returning capital to shareholders rather than allocating additional funds to production, which aligns with investors’ demands. This conservative capital spending is slowing down the integrated companies’ oil and gas production growth from their upstream operations.
Increasing Focus on Renewables: The world is gradually shifting to cleaner fuels and renewable energy to combat climate change. Thus, with solar and wind energy gaining prominence, demand for fossil fuels and petroleum products is likely to decline gradually, although the timeline is uncertain. The trend is not favorable for integrated players’ upstream and downstream operations.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bearish Outlook The Zacks Oil & Gas US Integrated industry is a 13-stock group within the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #205, which places it in the bottom 17% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates gloomy near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Lags Sector, Outperforms S&P 500 The Zacks Oil & Gas US Integrated industry has underperformed the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector but outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year.
The industry has rallied 23.7% over this period compared with the broader sector’s surge of 29.4% and the S&P 500’s rise of 21.4%.
One-Year Price Performance
Industry's Current Valuation Since oil and gas companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization) ratio. This is because the valuation metric takes into account not just equity but also the level of debt.
Based on the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), the industry is currently trading at 8.83X, lower than the S&P 500’s 22X. It is also lower than the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 8.98X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 29.27X and as low as 4.24X, with a median of 7.95X.
Trailing 12-Month Enterprise Value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio
3 U.S. Integrated Oil & Gas Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On Occidental
In the United States, Occidental, carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), is a major producer of oil and natural gas. In the domestic market, OXY has been experiencing efficiency improvements, including higher production volumes, while improving capital efficiency and lowering operating costs. To create long-term value for shareholders, Occidental has a strong focus on redirecting capital toward higher-return oil and gas projects.
Price and Consensus: OXY
ConocoPhillips
With operations in resources with low breakeven costs, ConocoPhillips is likely to capitalize on the high crude pricing environment. COP has operations in the Lower 48, which comprise the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States. Other low-cost shale plays in the Lower 48 include Bakken and Eagle Ford. Thus, it is expected that upstream operations will now be highly profitable for #3 Ranked COP.
Price and Consensus: COP
National Fuel Gas
National Fuel Gas is well-poised to navigate a volatile energy business environment, owing to its integrated business model encompassing upstream, midstream and downstream activities. Zacks Rank #3 NFG is likely to capitalize on clean energy demand, thanks to its presence in the natural gas-rich Appalachian basin. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Key Takeaways Devon Energy gains from Coterra assets, Permian strength and targeted $1 billion in merger synergies.ConocoPhillips expects key projects to generate about $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029.DVN is cheaper than COP, but the latter has outpaced DVN year to date with a 38.4% share-price gain. The United States is one of the world's leading producers of oil and natural gas, with key production regions including the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, Bakken Formation and the Gulf of America. Technological advancements such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have significantly boosted domestic production, strengthening the nation's energy security and reducing dependence on imported energy. Against this backdrop, let's focus on Devon Energy (DVN - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) .
Devon is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas. The company’s oil and gas operations are concentrated onshore in the United States.
ConocoPhillips is among the largest explorers and producers of oil and natural gas in the world. The company has a strong presence across conventional and unconventional plays in 15 countries.
Let's delve deeper to find out which stock among DVN and COP is better positioned for sustainable growth.
The Case for DVNDevon Energy’s expanded U.S. portfolio spans the Permian Basin, Rockies, Eagle Ford, Anadarko Basin and Marcellus Shale, providing diversified exposure to oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Production from newly drilled wells continues to support volumes across these regions, although the company remains focused on concentrating its portfolio around its premier Permian assets.
The combination with Coterra Energy created a larger and more diversified U.S. exploration and production company, with a particularly strong position in the Delaware Basin. Coterra’s legacy assets have begun contributing to Devon’s production, while the integration remains on track to deliver the targeted $1 billion in synergies.
Devon is also strengthening profitability through disciplined cost management. The company is divesting higher-cost assets, prioritizing efficient production opportunities and reducing drilling and completion expenses. Workforce optimization and other integration initiatives should provide additional support to operating margins.
To moderate commodity-price risk and improve cash flow visibility, Devon hedges a portion of its production. As of June 30, 2026, roughly 30% of its remaining 2026 oil production and 25% of natural gas production were hedged. Oil collars and basis swaps further support capital planning during periods of price volatility.
Shareholder returns remain central to Devon’s capital-allocation strategy. Following the Coterra merger, the company increased its quarterly fixed dividend 33% and also authorized an $8 billion share-repurchase program through June 2029. Devon has $7.8 billion available. Repurchases continued in the third quarter, with management planning a mix of systematic and opportunistic buybacks while targeting annual growth in the fixed dividend.
The Case for COPConocoPhillips offers a balanced long-term growth profile, supported by its deep inventory of low-cost upstream assets, leading Lower 48 position and expanding global LNG portfolio.
The company’s Lower 48 operations remain anchored in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken, where a sizable drilling inventory supports repeatable development and capital-efficient production growth. Lower 48 output increased to 1,479 MBOED in the second quarter of 2026 from 1,453 MBOED in the first quarter. This included 720 MBOED from the Delaware Basin and 202 MBOED from the Midland Basin. Total Permian production surpassed the company record of 900 MBOED. Management expects further Lower 48 growth in the third quarter, with companywide production projected between 2.29 MMBOED and 2.32 MMBOED.
ConocoPhillips is also expanding its LNG presence across the United States, Qatar, Australia and other markets. LNG developments, together with Port Arthur LNG and the Willow project in Alaska, should provide additional production and cash flow beyond the company’s existing asset base. Management expects these projects and other initiatives to generate approximately $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029, including about $1 billion annually from 2026 through 2028.
Cost discipline and declining reinvestment requirements should strengthen cash generation and resilience across commodity cycles. ConocoPhillips plans to return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases. Returns averaged roughly 40% during the first half, suggesting distributions should accelerate in the second half.
However, sensitivity to commodity prices, weak natural gas realizations, increasing environmental accruals and geopolitical or project-execution risks could constrain results despite the company’s durable asset base and improving cash-flow outlook.
Estimates for DVN and COP The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DVN’s 2026 revenues implies a 48.3% increase, and that for EPS suggests a 38.7% year-over-year increase. EPS estimates for 2026 have moved 4.4% north in the past 30 days. It has a Growth Score of A. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s 2026 revenues implies a 13.9% increase, and that for EPS indicates a 71.3% increase. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has risen 14.7% in the past 30 days. The company has a Growth Score of A. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance of DVN and COPDVN shares have gained 28.6% year to date, while COP shares have gained 38.4% in the same time.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Are DVN and COP Shares Expensive?DVN is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 9.23, higher than its median of 8.16 over the past three years. COP’s forward 12-month price-to-sales multiple sits at 13.41, higher than its median of 12.79 over the past three years.
DVN is cheaper than COP presently.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ConclusionDevon Energy benefits from a diversified production mix of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, complemented by a low-cost operating structure that supports healthy profit margins. Its broad, multi-basin asset portfolio generates robust free cash flow, providing the financial flexibility to strengthen its balance sheet and return value to shareholders. Moreover, contributions from recently acquired assets are expected to boost production volumes and support the company’s growth.
ConocoPhillips continues to benefit from deep shale inventory, expanding LNG exposure, Willow progress and disciplined capital returns, which support durable cash generation and lower reinvestment needs.
DVN and COP carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each. Though DVN is cheaper, COP’s price appreciation, analysts’ optimism, and growth projections give it an edge over DVN.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The clearest answer to which oil and gas stock has dominated in 2026 is Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY | OXY Price Prediction), but the margin over the peer group is thin.
B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. AG acquired a new stake in ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report) in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund acquired 66,330 shares of the energy producer’s stock, valued at approximately $6,896,000.
Other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. TrinityBridge Ltd acquired a new position in shares of ConocoPhillips during the 2nd quarter valued at $86,000. NFJ Investment Group LLC bought a new position in ConocoPhillips during the second quarter valued at approximately $895,000. Silvant Capital Management LLC acquired a new position in ConocoPhillips during the second quarter worth $104,000. LaSalle St. Investment Advisors LLC acquired a new stake in shares of ConocoPhillips in the second quarter worth $535,000. Finally, Mystic Asset Management Inc. acquired a new stake in ConocoPhillips in the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $940,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 82.36% of the company’s stock.
More ConocoPhillips News Here are the key news stories impacting ConocoPhillips this week:
Positive Sentiment: ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share, exceeding the $2.90 consensus estimate, while revenue reached $19.52 billion. The company also generated $7.2 billion in operating cash flow, doubled share repurchases and declared an $0.84 quarterly dividend, reinforcing confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns. ConocoPhillips Beats Earnings and Names New CEO Positive Sentiment: Higher crude prices have supported a broader energy-sector rally and improved the near-term earnings outlook for upstream producers such as COP. Analysts have also issued mostly favorable ratings, with a reported median price target of $146. ConocoPhillips Gains as Higher Oil Prices Add to Post-Earnings Momentum Positive Sentiment: Investors see additional upside if the company successfully executes its LNG strategy and Willow development. One analysis estimates COP could be approximately 6% below fair value under that growth scenario. ConocoPhillips Could Be 6% Below Fair Value If LNG and Willow Deliver Neutral Sentiment: Management is undergoing succession changes, including CEO Ryan Lance’s retirement and internal finance leadership appointments. The insider promotions provide continuity, but investors will monitor whether the new leadership maintains disciplined capital allocation. ConocoPhillips Gives Finance Chief Role to Insider Negative Sentiment: After its sharp advance, COP trades at a premium valuation, increasing sensitivity to oil prices and execution. Recent disclosures also show substantial insider selling, which could temper enthusiasm even though institutional and analyst activity remains broadly supportive. Is ConocoPhillips Stock a Buy as Growth Meets a Premium Valuation? ConocoPhillips Stock Performance COP opened at $135.45 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, a quick ratio of 1.39 and a current ratio of 1.54. ConocoPhillips has a 52-week low of $85.57 and a 52-week high of $135.88. The firm has a market cap of $162.72 billion, a P/E ratio of 17.92, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.43 and a beta of 0.11. The business’s fifty day moving average is $115.30 and its 200-day moving average is $117.66. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The energy producer reported $3.24 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.90 by $0.34. ConocoPhillips had a return on equity of 14.72% and a net margin of 14.22%.The company had revenue of $19.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $18.79 billion. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $1.42 EPS. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 32.4% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts expect that ConocoPhillips will post 10.46 EPS for the current fiscal year.
ConocoPhillips Dividend Announcement The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Shareholders of record on Monday, August 17th will be given a dividend of $0.84 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.36 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.5%. ConocoPhillips’s dividend payout ratio is 44.44%.
Analyst Ratings Changes COP has been the topic of a number of analyst reports. BMO Capital Markets lowered their target price on shares of ConocoPhillips from $140.00 to $135.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, May 13th. Susquehanna raised their target price on shares of ConocoPhillips from $155.00 to $161.00 and gave the company a “positive” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 11th. Freedom Capital raised ConocoPhillips from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, August 10th. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of ConocoPhillips from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, August 8th. Finally, Royal Bank Of Canada set a $130.00 price target on ConocoPhillips in a report on Monday, June 22nd. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eighteen have given a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $139.21.
Read Our Latest Analysis on COP
About ConocoPhillips (Free Report)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.
The company’s activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.
Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than ConocoPhillips Blueprint for a Boom: SEC Clears the Crypto Runway Ross Stores Just Flipped the Off-Price Retail Story After TJX’s Marmaxx Miss Advance Auto Parts Plunged, But Its Turnaround Is Still Working Is Palo Alto Networks Priced for Perfection Again as AI Security Demand Accelerates? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COP? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report).
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Advisors Capital Management LLC bought a new position in shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report) in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund bought 10,602 shares of the energy producer’s stock, valued at approximately $1,102,000.
Other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC boosted its stake in ConocoPhillips by 31.2% during the 4th quarter. Concurrent Investment Advisors LLC now owns 86,171 shares of the energy producer’s stock worth $8,067,000 after purchasing an additional 20,501 shares during the period. D.A. Davidson & CO. increased its position in ConocoPhillips by 10.5% in the 4th quarter. D.A. Davidson & CO. now owns 155,662 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $14,572,000 after acquiring an additional 14,833 shares during the period. Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position in ConocoPhillips by 0.3% in the 4th quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 120,251,183 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $11,256,713,000 after acquiring an additional 408,304 shares during the period. Mach 1 Financial Group LLC purchased a new stake in ConocoPhillips during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $1,169,000. Finally, Jennison Associates LLC raised its stake in ConocoPhillips by 7.6% during the 4th quarter. Jennison Associates LLC now owns 153,240 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $14,345,000 after acquiring an additional 10,779 shares during the last quarter. 82.36% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades Several research analysts have weighed in on the company. Capital One Financial lowered their target price on ConocoPhillips from $156.00 to $154.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, May 18th. UBS Group increased their price target on ConocoPhillips from $143.00 to $153.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, August 12th. Argus lifted their price objective on shares of ConocoPhillips from $136.00 to $153.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday. Wells Fargo & Company boosted their price objective on shares of ConocoPhillips from $183.00 to $189.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research note on Friday, August 7th. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised shares of ConocoPhillips from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research note on Thursday, August 6th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eighteen have assigned a Buy rating, seven have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, ConocoPhillips currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $139.21.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips Stock Performance NYSE COP opened at $135.45 on Friday. The business has a 50 day moving average price of $115.30 and a 200 day moving average price of $117.66. The company has a market capitalization of $162.72 billion, a P/E ratio of 17.92, a PEG ratio of 1.43 and a beta of 0.11. ConocoPhillips has a 1-year low of $85.57 and a 1-year high of $135.88. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, a current ratio of 1.54 and a quick ratio of 1.39.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The energy producer reported $3.24 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.90 by $0.34. ConocoPhillips had a return on equity of 14.72% and a net margin of 14.22%.The company had revenue of $19.52 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $18.79 billion. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $1.42 earnings per share. ConocoPhillips’s quarterly revenue was up 32.4% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts expect that ConocoPhillips will post 10.46 EPS for the current fiscal year.
ConocoPhillips Announces Dividend The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Investors of record on Monday, August 17th will be paid a $0.84 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.36 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.5%. ConocoPhillips’s dividend payout ratio is presently 44.44%.
ConocoPhillips News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting ConocoPhillips this week:
Positive Sentiment: ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share, exceeding the $2.90 consensus estimate, while revenue reached $19.52 billion. The company also generated $7.2 billion in operating cash flow, doubled share repurchases and declared an $0.84 quarterly dividend, reinforcing confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns. ConocoPhillips Beats Earnings and Names New CEO Positive Sentiment: Higher crude prices have supported a broader energy-sector rally and improved the near-term earnings outlook for upstream producers such as COP. Analysts have also issued mostly favorable ratings, with a reported median price target of $146. ConocoPhillips Gains as Higher Oil Prices Add to Post-Earnings Momentum Positive Sentiment: Investors see additional upside if the company successfully executes its LNG strategy and Willow development. One analysis estimates COP could be approximately 6% below fair value under that growth scenario. ConocoPhillips Could Be 6% Below Fair Value If LNG and Willow Deliver Neutral Sentiment: Management is undergoing succession changes, including CEO Ryan Lance’s retirement and internal finance leadership appointments. The insider promotions provide continuity, but investors will monitor whether the new leadership maintains disciplined capital allocation. ConocoPhillips Gives Finance Chief Role to Insider Negative Sentiment: After its sharp advance, COP trades at a premium valuation, increasing sensitivity to oil prices and execution. Recent disclosures also show substantial insider selling, which could temper enthusiasm even though institutional and analyst activity remains broadly supportive. Is ConocoPhillips Stock a Buy as Growth Meets a Premium Valuation? About ConocoPhillips (Free Report)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.
The company’s activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than ConocoPhillips Blueprint for a Boom: SEC Clears the Crypto Runway Ross Stores Just Flipped the Off-Price Retail Story After TJX’s Marmaxx Miss Advance Auto Parts Plunged, But Its Turnaround Is Still Working Is Palo Alto Networks Priced for Perfection Again as AI Security Demand Accelerates? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COP? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report).
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It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
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What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
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You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
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Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips is primarily involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Considering proved reserves and production, the company is among the largest explorers and producers in the world. The company, founded in 1875, has a strong presence across conventional and unconventional plays in 15 countries. ConocoPhillips’ low-risk and cost-effective operations are spread across North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
COP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. COP has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 9.9% over the past four weeks.
Three analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.03 to $10.06 per share. COP also boasts an average earnings surprise of +7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, COP should be on investors' short list.
Key Takeaways ConocoPhillips' 2026 earnings estimate increased 9.2% over four weeks, supporting its fundamental outlook.LNG offtake has expanded to 12 MTPA, with projects expected to begin contributing to cash flow in 2027.COP trades above key sales benchmarks as weak gas pricing and major-project risks temper its growth case. ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) combines improving earnings expectations with a deep Lower 48 inventory, expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) exposure and the multi-year Willow project in Alaska. Those drivers support a longer growth runway, but the stock is not uniformly cheap.
The investment debate therefore centers on price versus execution. A premium sales valuation raises the bar just as commodity sensitivity, weak regional gas pricing and major-project risks remain part of the outlook.
COP's Valuation Sits Above Key BenchmarksCOP's forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.31 is above the Zacks sub-industry's 1.84, the Zacks Oils-Energy sector's 1.41 and its own five-year median of 2.02. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.83 is closer to the sub-industry's 14.20, while the PEG ratio of 0.81 is below the industry's 1.83.
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Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is included in COP's industry peer set and offers investors another large-cap energy benchmark when comparing valuation and operating momentum. ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM - Free Report) is also in that peer group, providing another reference point for judging whether COP's project pipeline merits a richer sales multiple.
ConocoPhillips Still Has Strong Earnings SupportThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has moved 9.2% higher over the past four weeks. That revision trend gives the stock fundamental support as investors assess how much future improvement is already reflected in the share price.
Second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share beat the consensus mark of $2.96 by 9.5%. Revenues of $19.52 billion also topped the $17.54 billion consensus mark by 11.3%, helped by a 36% increase in the average realized price to $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent.
COP Earnings Estimates Point to Strong 2026 GrowthFor ConocoPhillips, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter ending September 2026 is $2.33 per share, indicating 44.7% year-over-year growth from $1.61. The consensus estimate for the quarter ending December 2026 stands at $2.27 per share, representing 122.6% growth from the year-ago figure of $1.02.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $10.05 per share, up 63.2% from $6.16 a year earlier. The estimate for 2027 stands at $8.99 per share, implying a 10.6% decline from the 2026 estimate. Current-quarter estimates range from $1.76 to $2.74 per share, while next-quarter projections range from $1.91 to $2.76. The estimates point to substantial earnings growth through 2026, followed by an expected moderation in 2027.
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ConocoPhillips' LNG and Willow Projects Extend the RunwayConocoPhillips has expanded commercial LNG offtake to 12 million metric tons per year (MTPA). Management expects its LNG projects to begin contributing in 2027, adding another source of cash-flow growth beyond the company's Lower 48 operations.
Willow remains on schedule for first oil in early 2029, with peak project capital now behind the company. Management also expects lower capital spending and reinvestment needs as major projects come online, underpinning its targeted $7 billion free-cash-flow inflection by 2029.
COP Must Navigate Pricing and Execution RiskThe Lower 48 realized natural gas price was negative $1.44 per thousand cubic feet in the second quarter, compared with positive $1.60 a year earlier. That weakness shows how regional gas pricing can offset some of the benefit from production scale and efficiency.
Execution risk is also material. Second-quarter production fell 143 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day as Lower 48 growth was more than offset by the Qatar conflict and higher Surmont royalties. The pace of the Qatar ramp remains uncertain, while Willow, LNG projects and newer Middle East opportunities require disciplined delivery. Accrued environmental costs for U.S. and Canadian remediation also rose to $306 million from $220 million at year-end 2025.
ConocoPhillips' Style Strength Tempers a Hold-Level SignalCOP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which supports a measured stance rather than an aggressive buy call. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.
The stock also has a Value Score of A, Growth Score of A, Momentum Score of A and VGM Score of A.Those A grades indicate favorable characteristics across several investment styles, and the Value Score considers multiple criteria rather than a single valuation measure.
Still, Zacks Style Scores are designed to complement the Zacks Rank. With COP carrying Zacks Rank #3, the combination favors patience while investors monitor whether earnings growth and project execution can keep pace with the valuation.
BlackRock Inc. lifted its position in shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report) by 3.0% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 93,886,457 shares of the energy producer’s stock after acquiring an additional 2,712,703 shares during the quarter. BlackRock Inc. owned 7.71% of ConocoPhillips worth $9,760,436,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also modified their holdings of the company. AXA S.A. grew its stake in ConocoPhillips by 91.1% in the 2nd quarter. AXA S.A. now owns 84,937 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $7,622,000 after acquiring an additional 40,499 shares during the last quarter. Sei Investments Co. raised its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 6.1% during the 2nd quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 784,368 shares of the energy producer’s stock worth $70,397,000 after purchasing an additional 44,852 shares during the last quarter. BNP Paribas acquired a new position in shares of ConocoPhillips during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $33,000. Osterweis Capital Management Inc. purchased a new stake in ConocoPhillips in the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $151,000. Finally, Main Street Financial Solutions LLC lifted its stake in ConocoPhillips by 53.5% in the 2nd quarter. Main Street Financial Solutions LLC now owns 4,806 shares of the energy producer’s stock valued at $431,000 after buying an additional 1,675 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 82.36% of the company’s stock.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In Several research firms have weighed in on COP. Barclays dropped their price target on ConocoPhillips from $155.00 to $150.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Monday. Royal Bank Of Canada set a $130.00 target price on shares of ConocoPhillips in a report on Monday, June 22nd. The Goldman Sachs Group decreased their price target on shares of ConocoPhillips from $144.00 to $138.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, June 30th. Mizuho lowered their price target on shares of ConocoPhillips from $150.00 to $146.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday, July 7th. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised shares of ConocoPhillips from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 6th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eighteen have given a Buy rating, eight have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $137.48.
Read Our Latest Research Report on ConocoPhillips COP opened at $129.82 on Wednesday. ConocoPhillips has a 12 month low of $85.57 and a 12 month high of $135.87. The business has a 50-day moving average of $114.31 and a two-hundred day moving average of $117.12. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, a current ratio of 1.54 and a quick ratio of 1.39. The stock has a market capitalization of $155.96 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.17, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.40 and a beta of 0.11.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The energy producer reported $3.24 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $2.90 by $0.34. ConocoPhillips had a net margin of 14.22% and a return on equity of 14.72%. The business had revenue of $19.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $18.79 billion. During the same period last year, the company earned $1.42 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 32.4% on a year-over-year basis. On average, research analysts expect that ConocoPhillips will post 10.05 earnings per share for the current year.
ConocoPhillips Dividend Announcement The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Shareholders of record on Monday, August 17th will be issued a $0.84 dividend. This represents a $3.36 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 2.6%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, August 17th. ConocoPhillips’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 44.44%.
ConocoPhillips Company Profile (Free Report)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.
The company’s activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.
Read More Five stocks we like better than ConocoPhillips The AI Boom Is Turning This Cable Maker Into a Stock to Watch A Star Investor Just Trimmed Amazon—Here’s What It means Wendy’s Deal Buzz May Give Fast-Food Investors a New Reason to Look Home Depot Analysts See a Path to $375 and Beyond Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COP? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP – Free Report).
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For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
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What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
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To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips is primarily involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Considering proved reserves and production, the company is among the largest explorers and producers in the world. The company, founded in 1875, has a strong presence across conventional and unconventional plays in 13 countries. ConocoPhillips’ low-risk and cost-effective operations are spread across North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
COP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 12.7; value investors should take notice.
Two analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.02 to $10.05 per share. COP boasts an average earnings surprise of +7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, COP should be on investors' short list.
For new and old investors, taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals. Zacks Premium provides lots of different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips is primarily involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Considering proved reserves and production, the company is among the largest explorers and producers in the world. The company, founded in 1875, has a strong presence across conventional and unconventional plays in 13 countries. ConocoPhillips’ low-risk and cost-effective operations are spread across North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
COP is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Additionally, the company could be a top pick for growth investors. COP has a Growth Style Score of A, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 63.2% for the current fiscal year.
For fiscal 2026, two analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.02 to $10.05 per share. COP boasts an average earnings surprise of +7%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, COP should be on investors' short list.
ConocoPhillips is upgraded to BUY, projecting high-teen CAGR through 2029, driven by robust free cash flow and favorable commodity trends. Q2 FCF surged 75% over Q1, with YTD realized prices aligning with five-year historical averages, supporting the 'higher for longer' oil thesis. Permian natural gas headwinds are expected to ease as new pipelines come online in 2H 2026, enhancing COP's earnings resilience.
The logo of American oil and natural gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips is seen during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023.... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more
SummaryCompaniesConocoPhillips targets $7 billion free cash flow growth by 2029Expensive Alaska oil project accounts for large portion of FCF growth planRecent share lag versus Exxon and Chevron reflects heavy spending, analyst saysHOUSTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Andy O'Brien will succeed longtime ConocoPhillips (COP.N), opens new tab CEO Ryan Lance next month and will inherit a major Alaska oil project to complete, costs to control and a share price that has recently lagged peers, analysts and investors said.
The largest independent oil exploration and production company in the U.S. announced the succession plan on Thursday alongside its biggest quarterly net income since 2022, lifted by higher crude prices due to the Iran war. O'Brien, currently chief financial officer and a nearly 30-year company veteran, will take over on September 1 when Lance steps down after 14 years as CEO to become executive chairman.
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The timing of the move has surprised some analysts, as ConocoPhillips is partway through a multiyear plan to add $7 billion in free cash flow by 2029.
Reaching that goal depends on the company completing the pricey Willow oil project in Alaska, analysts said. ConocoPhillips is also contending with disruptions at two large liquefied natural gas expansions in Qatar stemming from the Middle East conflict.
"His plate is full and investors might be a little critical if things don't go smoothly," said Scott Hanold, a managing director with RBC Capital Markets. Shareholders placed a lot of trust in Lance, and O'Brien will have to navigate their high expectations, he added.
A ConocoPhillips spokesperson, asked for comment about the succession, referred to the earnings call on Thursday, when O'Brien said his priority was achieving the company's outlined goals.
"We've got to deliver our major projects and cost reduction program that underpin our $7 billion free cash flow inflection — that is on track," O'Brien said. "That is going to be sort of hyper focus for the team and myself."
Lance said on Thursday he thought the company was in its strongest position. "And I wouldn't leave if I didn't think that was the case."
CONOCOPHILLIPS HAS RECENTLY UNDERPERFORMED PEERSConocoPhillips' stock has outperformed peers during Lance's tenure since 2012, trailing only EOG Resources.
In the past three years, however, the company's shares have underperformed ExxonMobil and Chevron. Hanold said heavy spending to generate free cash flow may be responsible, as investors wait for results before buying the stock.
In 2023, ConocoPhillips approved Willow, which is expected to produce 600 million barrels over its lifetime from the remote Alaska North Slope. Last year, the company raised the estimated project cost to up to $9 billion — an increase of $1.5 billion from its previous forecast — because of rising inflation and supply chain costs.
Willow underpins nearly 75% of ConocoPhillips' free cash flow growth plan, making its completion critical, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang wrote in a note on Friday. The company is targeting production to start in 2029.
ConocoPhillips has also been cutting costs. Last year, it announced it would lay off up to 25% of global staff.
Lance told staff at the time that the company had fallen behind competitors and needed to streamline and control costs, which had crept up $2 per barrel over three years.
The oil industry is set for more consolidation over the next few years as producers chase scale. ConocoPhillips may feel pressure to pursue another acquisition, said Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, which holds about $220 million of the stock according to LSEG data.
"That's a dynamic this particular new CEO will need to deal with," Smead said.
Reporting by Sheila Dang in Houston; Editing by Nathan Crooks and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
SummaryConocoPhillips is upgraded from Hold to Buy, driven by robust Q2 results and a constructive oil price outlook.COP's tier-1 Lower-48 shale assets are supported by strong operational and financial performance.The CEO transition to Andrew O'Brien signals strategic continuity, with no major shifts expected before Willow comes online in 2029.However, COP's capital returns remain heavily skewed toward buybacks over dividends, contrasting with Chevron's approach.Meantime, refining fundamentals at Conoco's sister company, Phillips 66, are already very tight, will tighten further, and refined product margins are expected to stay very strong through 2027. Dmitrii Pichugin/iStock via Getty Images
ConocoPhillips (COP) reported its Q2 results on Thursday, and there were no surprises in the financials—it was yet another display of solid operations and consistent and steady project execution. Revenue and earnings were, of course, significantly boosted
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of COP, XOM, CVX, PSX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am an electronics engineer, not a CFA. The information and data presented in this article were obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee their accuracy. Please do your own research and contact a qualified investment advisor. I am not responsible for the investment decisions you make.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Energy Is Leading in 2026—But Are the Oil Majors Cracking?ConocoPhillips NYSE: COP reported second-quarter 2026 production above the high end of its guidance range, supported by record Permian Basin output, while also announcing that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance will retire from the CEO role effective Sept. 1.
Andy O'Brien, currently chief financial officer and executive vice president of strategy and commercial, will become president and CEO. Lance will remain with the company as executive chairman during the transition. O'Brien said Konnie Haynes-Welsh will join the executive leadership team as chief financial officer.
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3 Energy Plays to Watch as the Sector Reacts to New DevelopmentsLance, who has spent more than 40 years at ConocoPhillips and served as CEO for 14 years, said the company was positioned for a leadership transition because of its portfolio strength, project execution and financial outlook. He said O'Brien had played a key role in shaping the company’s strategy and execution over nearly three decades with the business.
Second-quarter production and cash flow ConocoPhillips produced 2.248 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the second quarter, exceeding its guidance range. The company’s Permian production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day, reaching a record 920,000 barrels per day during the quarter, according to management.
Oil Prices May Fall to $55 by 2026—Bad News for This Energy ETFO'Brien said adjusted earnings were $3.24 per share. Cash flow from operations totaled $7.2 billion, while capital expenditures of $3 billion resulted in $4.2 billion of free cash flow.
Shareholder distributions totaled $3 billion, including $2 billion of share repurchases and $1 billion in ordinary dividends. Share repurchases doubled from the prior quarter. The company ended the quarter with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, plus $1.2 billion of liquid long-term investments. For the third quarter, ConocoPhillips forecast production of 2.290 million to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. O'Brien said the anticipated sequential increase reflects a production ramp in Qatar and continued Lower 48 growth, more than offsetting the July sale of non-core assets producing about 15,000 barrels per day.
The company maintained its full-year guidance. O'Brien said ConocoPhillips averaged a roughly 40% payout rate in the first half and expects to increase distributions during the second half in order to meet its 45% full-year target.
Portfolio moves and international expansion ConocoPhillips completed its previously announced $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule, including $1.7 billion of non-core Lower 48 asset sales completed in July. O'Brien said the company would continue to evaluate its asset base, describing portfolio high-grading as an ongoing process rather than a one-time program.
The company also signed two liquefied natural gas offtake agreements, each for 1 million metric tons per year. One agreement is in Indonesia and the other is on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The additions bring ConocoPhillips’ total LNG offtake portfolio to 12 million metric tons per year.
O'Brien said the Indonesia volumes will supplement a portfolio primarily supplied from the Gulf Coast and provide geographic flexibility for commercial optimization, including substitution and diversion opportunities. He said ConocoPhillips expects LNG demand and pricing to remain constructive over the long term, while acknowledging potential volatility.
In the Middle East, the company signed strategic agreements involving low-cost supply growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria. O'Brien said the Iraq transaction related to the Kirkuk field is expected to close around year-end, with acquisition capital estimated at $300 million to $500 million, including historical costs and expected spending through closing.
He said the structure provides ConocoPhillips with a share of incremental production and reserves while allowing cost recovery. The company estimates cost of supply for the Kirkuk opportunity at about $30 per barrel and expects the joint venture to largely fund redevelopment from its own cash flow. O'Brien said the Iraq and Syria opportunities are not expected to affect the company’s planned 2029 free-cash-flow inflection and instead represent potential upside beyond that outlook.
Capital outlook and major projects Management reiterated its expectation of a $7 billion free-cash-flow inflection by 2029. O'Brien said peak capital spending for the Willow project is already behind the company and that total capital expenditures are expected to decline as Willow begins production in early 2029.
He said the company’s free-cash-flow breakeven is expected to fall from the mid-$40s per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude currently to the low $30s by 2029. ConocoPhillips plans to continue investing in its Lower 48 and Alaska operations, though O'Brien said this would occur at a structurally lower reinvestment rate.
In Alaska, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions Kirk Johnson said ConocoPhillips’ four-well exploration program in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska produced encouraging enough results for the company to anticipate adding resources to the Willow development area. He said additional appraisal work will be required before development plans are finalized.
Johnson said the company has begun preparations for its 2027 winter exploration season, including field surveying and federal permit applications. He added that future satellite developments could use Willow infrastructure for decades, with additional volumes potentially filling capacity later in the 2030s.
Regarding Qatar, Johnson said Ras Laffan production was largely shut in during the second quarter amid conflict-related disruptions, though limited volumes continued to support local demand. The company completed a planned turnaround during the downtime and expects a production ramp through the third quarter. He said the timing remains uncertain, but the company’s guidance incorporates that uncertainty.
Johnson said the North Field East and North Field South LNG projects continued to progress during the conflict. Any delay to first gas or first cargo is expected to be measured in months rather than a full year, he said, and is not expected to materially affect ConocoPhillips’ free-cash-flow outlook.
Lower 48 technology efforts Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE Nick Olds said ConocoPhillips is testing technologies intended to improve recovery and capital efficiency in its shale operations. These include real-time fracture diagnostics, far-field diverters and surfactants.
Olds said real-time fracture optimization has enabled the company to adjust completion-stage volumes by as much as 30%, while up to 60% of fracture stages on some wells have been modified from the original design. In the Permian, early surfactant tests have shown up to a 20% improvement in oil productivity for treated wells compared with untreated wells, though he said longer-term performance must still be evaluated.
The company is also increasing lateral lengths, with average laterals expected to rise 15% in 2026 from 2025 levels. Olds said all Permian wells brought online this year are longer than two miles, with several three- and four-mile laterals being drilled.
About ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)ConocoPhillips NYSE: COP is a Houston-based international energy company focused on exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Formed in 2002 through the merger of Conoco Inc and Phillips Petroleum Company, the firm operates as an independent upstream company that explores for, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids across a portfolio of global assets.
The company's activities span conventional and unconventional resources and include onshore and offshore operations in multiple regions around the world.
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Key Takeaways ConocoPhillips expects free-cash-flow breakeven to fall from the mid-$40s WTI to the low $30s by 2029.COP remains committed to returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders in 2026.COP says Qatar delays should be measured in months without meaningfully altering its cash-flow outlook. ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 earnings call to reinforce a $7 billion free-cash-flow inflection by 2029, with lower capital spending and higher cash flow from major projects central to that outlook.
The call also marked a leadership transition, while management stressed continuity and addressed investor questions on returns, Qatar, LNG, Middle East expansion and Lower 48 efficiency.
COP Reaffirms the 2029 Cash-Flow InflectionAndrew O'Brien, executive vice president of Strategy & Commercial and CFO, said capital spending should decline, particularly after Willow starts production in early 2029. Free-cash-flow breakeven is expected to fall from the mid-$40s WTI today to the low $30s by 2029.
A Wolfe Research analyst asked whether another major capital reset could keep spending elevated. O'Brien said peak Willow capital is already behind ConocoPhillips, and its reinvestment rate should decline structurally even with modest growth investment.
Adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96. Revenues of $19.52 billion also exceeded the $17.53 billion the consensus mark.
ConocoPhillips Keeps Returns in FocusO'Brien said ConocoPhillips remains committed to returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders in 2026. The company averaged about 40% in the first half, pointing to a higher distribution percentage in the second half.
An RBC Capital Markets analyst asked how buybacks could evolve as free cash flow rises. O'Brien declined to manage distributions quarter by quarter but said a lower reinvestment rate should create greater flexibility for peer-leading distributions.
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO, called buybacks part of the capital-return framework. Second-quarter distributions totaled $3.0 billion, including $2.0 billion of repurchases and $1.0 billion of ordinary dividends.
COP Balances Qatar Risk With LNG ExpansionKirk Johnson, executive vice president of Global Operations & Technical Functions, said third-quarter production guidance of 2.29 million to 2.32 million BOE per day assumes a Qatar ramp-up through the quarter, with uncertainty captured in the range.
Johnson said the North Field East and North Field South projects continued progressing through the conflict. Any first-gas or first-cargo delays are expected to be measured in months, not a full year, without meaningfully affecting the free-cash-flow outlook.
O'Brien said two new 1-MTPA LNG offtake agreements lifted total offtake to 12 MTPA. Responding to a Barclays analyst, he said Pacific Basin supply adds flexibility to a portfolio centered on low-cost Gulf Coast supply.
ConocoPhillips Adds Low-Cost Middle East OptionsO'Brien said Iraq and Syria fit the company's cost-of-supply and capital-efficiency framework. The Kirkuk transaction is expected to close around year-end, with acquisition capital of $300 million to $500 million.
He put Kirkuk's cost of supply at around $30 per barrel and said the joint venture should fund redevelopment largely from its own cash flow. Syria is smaller but follows the same self-funding approach.
A JPMorgan analyst asked how Kirkuk affects the 2029 target. O'Brien said it does not change the $7 billion free-cash-flow inflection and instead offers longer-term upside.
COP Pushes Permian Capital EfficiencyNicholas Olds, executive vice president of Lower 48 & Global HSE, said ConocoPhillips is testing technologies to improve recovery and reduce capital per barrel. Real-time fracture diagnostics are allowing completion designs to change stage by stage.
Olds said Permian surfactant tests produced up to a 20% uplift in oil productivity for treated wells, though management is assessing longer-term performance.
Average lateral length is rising 15% this year versus 2025, Olds said, while the number of three-mile-or-longer laterals has doubled. Permian production reached a record 920,000 BOE per day.
ConocoPhillips Signals Continuity Through CEO ChangeLance will retire as CEO, effective Sept. 1, and become executive chairman, while O'Brien will become president and CEO. O'Brien said the cost-of-supply focus, capital-allocation framework and commitment to returns will remain intact.
Management's closing posture centered on execution: delivering major projects, continuing to high-grade the portfolio, lowering the reinvestment burden and preserving financial flexibility as free cash flow expands.
COP Rank and Style Scores Show a Balanced SetupCOP carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with an A Value Score, C Growth Score, B Momentum Score and VGM Score of A. The grades point to stronger value and momentum characteristics than growth, while the VGM Score combines all three styles.
Zacks emphasizes that Style Scores complement the Rank, with the strongest combinations centered on Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) stocks paired with A or B Scores. The Zacks Rank can change as analysts revise estimates after the reported results.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) reported $19.52 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.4%. EPS of $3.24 for the same period compares to $1.42 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +11.32% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.54 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.96, the EPS surprise was +9.46%.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how ConocoPhillips performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Natural gas produced per day - Total company: 3710 millions of cubic feet per day compared to the 3530.99 millions of cubic feet per day average estimate based on five analysts.Total production per day: 2101 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day versus the five-analyst average estimate of 2211.96 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day.Crude oil produced per day - Total company: 1094 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 1146.66 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by five analysts on average.Average Sales Price - Natural gas - Total company: $2.58 compared to the $3.27 average estimate based on four analysts.Natural gas liquids produced per day - Total company: 420 millions of barrels of oil per day compared to the 406.73 millions of barrels of oil per day average estimate based on four analysts.Average Sales Price - Crude oil - Total company per bbl: $99.40 compared to the $97.99 average estimate based on three analysts.Bitumen produced per day: 115 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 112.83 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by three analysts on average.Crude oil produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 122 millions of barrels of oil per day compared to the 110.49 millions of barrels of oil per day average estimate based on two analysts.Natural gas liquids produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 8 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 7.97 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by two analysts on average.Natural gas produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 514 millions of cubic feet per day compared to the 510.39 millions of cubic feet per day average estimate based on two analysts.Revenues- Sales and other operating revenues: $19.16 billion versus $18.14 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +36.8% change.Revenues- Equity in earnings of affiliates: $239 million compared to the $173.93 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of -24.1% year over year.View all Key Company Metrics for ConocoPhillips here>>>
Shares of ConocoPhillips have returned +8.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.3% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
After a career spanning two decades at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley, I gained an institutional perspective on dividend stock investing. My tenure at these premier Wall Street firms exposed me to fundamental analysis, credit evaluation, and risk management practices that directly translate into selecting high-quality dividend-paying companies. Having witnessed firsthand the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath—including the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, having left both firms before their respective collapses—I developed an appreciation for balance sheet strength, sustainable payout ratios, and the importance of dividends as a stabilizing force during market turbulence.
By analyzing cash flow generation, capital allocation strategies, and management quality at scale, I can identify companies with durable competitive advantages and the financial discipline to maintain and grow their dividends through economic cycles. Early in my career, I realized that dividend investing is not merely an income strategy but also a comprehensive framework for building wealth through companies that consistently return capital to shareholders while maintaining financial stability.
While much has changed since I started as a stockbroker in 1991, quality energy companies that dominate the industry and pay dependable high-yield dividends never go out of style. The big integrated giants dominated then and continue to do so, while the top midstream master limited partnerships (MLPs) still control the movement and storage of oil and gas. Five companies that investors can buy now at reasonable valuations can be stashed in a growth-and-income portfolio and held forever. All five are rated by the top Wall Street firms we cover.
Why Do We Cover High-Yield Energy, Dividend Stocks? Since 1926, dividends have accounted for approximately 32% of the S&P 500’s total return, while capital appreciation has accounted for 68%. Therefore, sustainable dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation are essential to total return expectations. A study by Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, found that dividend stocks delivered an annualized return of 9.18% over the 50 years from 1973 to 2023. Over the same timeline, this was more than double the annualized return for non-payers (3.95%).
Chevron Chevron (NYSE: CVX | CVX Price Prediction) is an American multinational energy company primarily focused on oil and gas. It is a safer option for investors looking to position themselves in the energy sector, and it pays a substantial 3.74% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. Chevron operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide through its subsidiaries.
The company operates in two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in the following:
Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation, storage Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant The Downstream segment engages in:
Refining crude oil into petroleum products Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.
Bank of America has a Buy rating with a $227 price target.
ConocoPhillips The big always gets bigger, and this company completed a $22.5 billion purchase of Marathon Oil in November of 2024. This deal added high-quality assets, particularly in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales, to the company’s portfolio. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production company with a rich dividend yield of 2.84%.
Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Lower 48 segment covers operations in the 48 contiguous states of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia, and commercial operations.
The Europe, Middle East, and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in:
The Norwegian sector of the North Sea The Norwegian Sea Qatar Libya Equatorial Guinea Commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom The Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, and Australia, as well as commercial operations in China, Singapore, and Japan. The Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
UBS has a Buy rating with a $143 target price.
Energy Transfer Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is one of North America’s largest and most diversified midstream energy companies. This top MLP is a safe option for investors seeking energy exposure and income, as the company pays a 6.61% distribution yield. Energy Transfer owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the United States, with a strategic footprint across all major domestic production basins.
The company is a publicly traded limited partnership with core operations that include:
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Complementary natural gas midstream, intrastate, and interstate transportation and storage assets Crude oil, NGLs, and refined product transportation and terminalling assets NGL fractionation Various acquisition and marketing assets Following the acquisition of Enable Partners in December 2021, Energy Transfer owns and operates over 114,000 miles of pipelines and related assets in 41 states, spanning all major U.S. producing regions and markets. This further solidifies its leadership position in the midstream sector.
Through its ownership of Energy Transfer Operating, formerly known as Energy Transfer Partners, the company also owns Lake Charles LNG Company; the general partner interests, the incentive distribution rights, and 28.5 million standard units of Sunoco (NYSE: SUN); and the public partner interests and 39.7 million standard units of USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC).
Jefferies has a Buy rating on the shares, with a $23 target price.
Enterprise Products Partners This top American midstream natural gas and crude oil pipeline company is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) is one of the most extensive publicly traded energy partnerships, paying a reliable 5.78% dividend. The company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio ranges from 3.1x to 3.4x, which is moderate for a midstream energy company, and its interest coverage ratio is 5x.
The company generates strong free cash flow, with an operating cash flow of approximately $8.8 billion, resulting in approximately $4.2 billion in free cash flow annually after deducting capital expenditures. Another significant benefit for shareholders is that most of the corporate debt is fixed-rate, thereby limiting the risk of rising interest rates.
Enterprise Products Partners provides various midstream energy services, including:
Gathering Processing Transporting and storing natural gas, NGLs, and fractionation Import and export terminalling Offshore production platform services Its four reportable business segments are:
Natural Gas Pipelines and Services NGL Pipelines and Services Petrochemical Services Crude Oil Pipelines and Services One reason many analysts like the stock might be its distribution coverage ratio. The company’s coverage ratio is well above 1x, making it relatively less risky among the MLPs.
UBS has a Buy rating with a $45 price objective.
Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) manages an industry-leading portfolio of resources and is one of the world’s largest integrated fuels, lubricants, and chemical companies. The decline in oil prices presents investors with an excellent entry point to secure a strong 2.69% dividend yield. Exxon is the world’s largest international integrated oil and gas company, exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia/Oceania.
Exxon also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, and polypropylene plastics, as well as specialty products. Additionally, the company transports and sells crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.
Top Wall Street analysts expect the company to remain a key beneficiary in a higher oil price environment. Most remain optimistic about the company’s sharp positive inflection in capital allocation strategy, upstream portfolio, and leverage to a further demand recovery. Exxon offers greater downstream/chemicals exposure than its peers.
Exxon completed its purchase of oil shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024 in an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion. The deal created the largest U.S. oilfield producer and guarantees a decade of low-cost production.
Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating and a $168 target price.
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HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, compared with second-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.0 billion, or $1.56 per share. Excluding special items, second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings were $4.0 billion, or $3.24 per share, compared with second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share.
“ConocoPhillips delivered strong second-quarter results with exceptional operational performance, record production from our peer-leading Permian position and disciplined execution across the business, all while continuing to progress our strategic priorities,” said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer. “We doubled our quarterly share repurchases, achieved our $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule, secured low cost of supply opportunities in the Middle East, and increased our LNG offtake to 12 MTPA. We are executing well, delivering on our strategy, and remain on track to achieve our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.”
Second-quarter highlights and recent announcements
Delivered total company and Lower 48 production of 2,248 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) and 1,479 MBOED, respectively. Increased shareholder distributions to $3.0 billion, including $2.0 billion through share repurchases and $1.0 billion through the ordinary dividend. Signed agreements to sell noncore Lower 48 assets for $1.7 billion, which closed in July, achieving $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule. Signed an agreement to acquire a 42% interest in a joint venture in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq, accessing long-life, conventional redevelopment opportunities at an attractive entry cost and competitive cost of supply; closing expected by year-end 2026. Executed an agreement for re-entry into Syria, leveraging existing infrastructure to restore and increase production at onshore fields. Advanced commercial LNG strategy with additional 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of offtake agreements, bringing total LNG offtake to 12 MTPA. Ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $8.1 billion and long-term investments of $1.2 billion. Quarterly dividend
ConocoPhillips declared a third-quarter ordinary dividend of $0.84 per share, payable Sept. 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on Aug. 17, 2026.
Second-quarter review
Production for the second quarter of 2026 was 2,248 MBOED, a decrease of 143 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, second-quarter 2026 production decreased 98 MBOED or 4% from the same period a year ago. Organic growth from Lower 48 was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties.
Lower 48 delivered production of 1,479 MBOED, including 720 MBOED from the Delaware Basin, 202 MBOED from the Midland Basin, 363 MBOED from the Eagle Ford and 189 MBOED from the Bakken.
Earnings and adjusted earnings increased from the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher prices. The company’s total average realized price was $62.33 per BOE, 36% higher than the $45.77 per BOE realized in the second quarter of 2025.
For the quarter, cash provided by operating activities was $7.4 billion. Excluding a change in working capital, ConocoPhillips generated CFO of $7.2 billion. In addition, ConocoPhillips received $0.2 billion of disposition proceeds from the sale of noncore assets. The company funded $3.0 billion of capital expenditures and investments, repurchased $2.0 billion of shares, and paid $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends.
Six-month review
ConocoPhillips’ six-month 2026 earnings were $6.1 billion, or $5.00 per share, compared with six-month 2025 earnings of $4.8 billion, or $3.79 per share. Six-month 2026 adjusted earnings were $6.3 billion, or $5.13 per share, compared with six-month 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.5 billion, or $3.52 per share.
Production for the first six months of 2026 was 2,278 MBOED, a decrease of 113 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production decreased 57 MBOED or 2% from the same period a year ago. Organic growth from Lower 48 was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties.
The company’s total realized price during this period was $56.37 per BOE, 14% higher than the $49.54 per BOE realized in the first six months of 2025.
In the first six months of 2026, cash provided by operating activities was $11.7 billion. Excluding a change in working capital, ConocoPhillips generated CFO of $12.6 billion and received disposition proceeds of $0.2 billion. The company funded $6.0 billion of capital expenditures and investments, repurchased $3.0 billion of shares, and paid $2.1 billion in ordinary dividends.
Outlook
Third-quarter 2026 production is expected to be 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
All full-year guidance items remain unchanged.
ConocoPhillips will host a conference call today at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time to discuss this announcement. To listen to the call and view related presentation materials and supplemental information, go to www.conocophillips.com/investor. A recording and transcript of the call will be posted afterward.
--- # # # ---
About ConocoPhillips
As a leading global exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips is uniquely equipped to deliver reliable, responsibly produced oil and gas. Our deep, durable and diverse portfolio is built to meet growing global energy demands. Together with our high-performing operations and continuously advancing technology, we are well positioned to deliver strong, consistent financial results, now and for decades to come. Visit us at www.conocophillips.com.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE "SAFE HARBOR" PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
This news release contains forward-looking statements as defined under the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future events, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial position, business strategy, budgets, projected revenues, costs and plans, and objectives of management for future operations. Words and phrases such as “ambition,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “budget,” “continue,” “could,” “effort,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “guidance,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “outlook,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “projection,” “seek,” “should,” “target,” “will,” “would,” and other similar words can be used to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Where, in any forward-looking statement, the company expresses an expectation or belief as to future results, such expectation or belief is expressed in good faith and believed to be reasonable at the time such forward-looking statement is made. However, these statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and other factors beyond our control. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from what is presented include, but are not limited to, the following: effects of volatile commodity prices, including prolonged periods of low commodity prices, which may adversely impact our operating results and our ability to execute on our strategy and could result in recognition of impairment charges on our long-lived assets, leaseholds and nonconsolidated equity investments; global and regional changes in the demand, supply, prices, differentials or other market conditions affecting oil and gas, including changes as a result of any ongoing military conflict and the global response to such conflict, security threats on facilities and infrastructure, global health crises, the imposition or lifting of crude oil production quotas or other actions that might be imposed by OPEC and other producing countries or the resulting company or third-party actions in response to such changes; the potential for insufficient liquidity or other factors that could impact our ability to repurchase shares and declare and pay dividends; potential failures or delays in achieving expected reserve or production levels from existing and future oil and gas developments, including due to operating hazards, drilling risks and the inherent uncertainties in predicting reserves and reservoir performance; reductions in our reserve replacement rates, whether as a result of significant declines in commodity prices or otherwise; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities or the inability to obtain access to exploratory acreage; failure to progress or complete announced and future development plans related to constructing, modifying or operating E&P and LNG facilities, or unexpected changes in costs, inflationary pressures or technical equipment related to such plans; significant operational or investment changes imposed by legislative and regulatory initiatives and international agreements addressing environmental concerns, including initiatives addressing the impact of global climate change, such as limiting or reducing GHG emissions, regulations concerning hydraulic fracturing, methane emissions, flaring or water disposal and prohibitions on commodity exports; substantial investment in and increased adoption of competing or alternative energy sources; risks, uncertainties and high costs that may prevent us from successfully executing on our Climate-related Risk Strategy; lack or inadequacy of, or disruptions in reliable transportation for our crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG and NGLs; inability to timely obtain or maintain permits, including those necessary for construction, drilling and/or development, or inability to make capital expenditures required to maintain compliance with any necessary permits or applicable laws or regulations; potential disruption or interruption of our operations and any resulting consequences due to accidents, extraordinary weather events, supply chain disruptions, civil unrest, political events, war, terrorism, cybersecurity threats or information technology failures, constraints or disruptions; liability for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under existing or future environmental regulations and litigation; liability resulting from pending or future litigation or our failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations; general domestic and international economic, political and diplomatic developments, including deterioration of international trade relationships, the imposition of trade restrictions or tariffs relating to commodities and material or products (such as aluminum and steel) used in the operation of our business, expropriation of assets, changes in governmental policies relating to commodity pricing, including the imposition of price caps, sanctions or other adverse regulations or taxation policies; competition and consolidation in the oil and gas E&P industry, including competition for sources of supply, services, personnel and equipment; any limitations on our access to capital or increase in our cost of capital or insurance, including as a result of illiquidity, changes or uncertainty in domestic or international financial markets, foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations or investment sentiment; challenges or delays to our execution of, or successful implementation of any asset dispositions or acquisitions we elect to pursue; potential disruption of our operations, including the diversion of management time and attention; our inability to realize anticipated cost savings or capital expenditure reductions; difficulties integrating acquired businesses and technologies; or other unanticipated changes; our inability to deploy the net proceeds from any asset dispositions that are pending or that we elect to undertake in the future in the manner and timeframe we anticipate, if at all; the operation, financing and management of risks of our joint ventures; the ability of our customers and other contractual counterparties to satisfy their obligations to us, including our ability to collect payments when due from the government of Venezuela or PDVSA; uncertainty as to the long-term value of our common stock; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting our business generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless legally required, ConocoPhillips expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We may use the term “resource” in this news release that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information – To supplement the presentation of the company’s financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information contain certain financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with GAAP, including adjusted earnings (calculated on a consolidated and on a segment-level basis), adjusted earnings per share (EPS), free cash flow (FCF) and cash from operations (CFO).
The company believes that the non-GAAP measure adjusted earnings (both on an aggregate and a per-share basis) is useful to investors to help facilitate comparisons of the company’s operating performance associated with the company’s core business operations across periods on a consistent basis and with the performance and cost structures of peer companies by excluding items that do not directly relate to the company’s core business operations. Adjusted earnings is defined as earnings removing the impact of special items. Adjusted EPS is a measure of the company’s diluted net earnings per share excluding special items. The company further believes that the non-GAAP measure CFO is useful to investors to help understand changes in cash provided by operating activities excluding the timing effects associated with operating working capital changes across periods on a consistent basis and for comparison with the performance of peer companies. The company believes that the above-mentioned non-GAAP measures, when viewed in combination with the company’s results prepared in accordance with GAAP, provide a more complete understanding of the factors and trends affecting the company’s business and performance. The company’s Board of Directors and management also use these non-GAAP measures to analyze the company’s operating performance across periods when overseeing and managing the company’s business.
Each of the non-GAAP measures included in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information has limitations as an analytical tool and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for an analysis of the company’s results calculated in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all companies use identical calculations, the company’s presentation of non-GAAP measures in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information may not be comparable to similarly titled measures disclosed by other companies, including companies in our industry. The company may also change the calculation of any of the non-GAAP measures included in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information from time to time in light of its then existing operations to include other adjustments that may impact its operations.
Reconciliations of each non-GAAP measure presented in this news release to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP are included in the release.
Other Terms – This news release also may contain the term pro forma underlying production. Pro forma underlying production reflects the impact of closed acquisitions and closed dispositions as of June 30, 2026. The impact of closed acquisitions and dispositions assumes a closing date of Jan. 1, 2025. The company believes that underlying production is useful to investors to compare production reflecting the impact of closed acquisitions and dispositions on a consistent go-forward basis across periods and with peer companies. Return of capital is defined as the total of the ordinary dividend and share repurchases. References in the release to project capital exclude capitalized interest and references to earnings refer to net income.
ConocoPhillips
Table 1: Reconciliation of earnings to adjusted earnings
$ millions, except as indicated
2Q26
2Q25
2026 YTD
2025 YTD
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Earnings
$
3,931
3.23
1,971
1.56
6,114
5.00
4,820
3.79
Adjustments:
(Gain) loss on asset sales
—
—
—
—
(274
)
64
(210
)
(0.17
)
—
—
(338
)
23
(315
)
(0.25
)
Transaction, integration and restructuring expenses
32
(7
)
25
0.02
58
(12
)
46
0.04
47
(10
)
37
0.03
111
(24
)
87
0.07
(Gain) loss in interest rate hedge1
(37
)
9
(28
)
(0.02
)
(18
)
4
(14
)
(0.01
)
(28
)
7
(21
)
(0.02
)
(33
)
7
(26
)
(0.02
)
Pending claims and settlements
30
(7
)
23
0.02
—
—
—
—
113
(27
)
86
0.07
(123
)
29
(94
)
(0.07
)
(Gain) loss on contingent liability measurement2
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
78
(19
)
59
0.05
—
—
—
—
Adjusted earnings / (loss)
$
3,951
3.24
1,793
1.42
6,275
5.13
4,472
3.52
1 Interest rate hedging (gain) loss from PALNG Phase 1 Investment.
2 Related to our Surmont acquisition.
The income tax effects of the special items are primarily calculated based on the statutory rate of the jurisdiction in which the discrete item resides.
Certain totals may differ from the sum of the underlying components due to rounding.
ConocoPhillips
Table 2: Reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to cash from operations
$ millions, except as indicated
2Q26
2026 YTD
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
$
7,434
11,729
Adjustments:
Net operating working capital changes
258
(834
)
Cash from operations
$
7,176
12,563
ConocoPhillips
Table 3: Reconciliation of reported production to pro forma underlying production
MBOED, except as indicated
2Q26
2Q25
2026 YTD
2025 YTD
Total reported ConocoPhillips production
2,248
2,391
2,278
2,391
Closed Dispositions1
—
(45
)
—
(56
)
Closed Acquisitions
—
—
—
—
Total pro forma underlying production
2,248
2,346
2,278
2,335
1 Includes production related to various Lower 48 noncore dispositions.
Certain totals may differ from the sum of the underlying components due to rounding.
QatarEnergy's liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
CompaniesAug 6 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips (COP.N), opens new tab said on Thursday that any delay to its Qatar LNG project would likely be in months rather than a year or more and it does not expect any impact on free cash flow.
The U.S. oil and gas producer is a partner in QatarEnergy's main LNG project, which includes offshore facilities in the North Field and onshore facilities at Ras Laffan.
The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here.
"We're expecting any delays that may come on first gas or first cargo to be in the nature of months, you know, not a full year," a ConocoPhillips executive said on a post-earnings call.
Planned maintenance at Ras Laffan was completed during the second quarter and a ramp-up in production is expected in the third quarter, the executive added.
The U.S.-Iran war has forced QatarEnergy, one of the world's biggest LNG exporters, to shut liquefaction trains, declare force majeure on deliveries and suspend exports.
Qatar accounts for about a fifth of global LNG trade, and a prolonged outage would tighten supplies and raise prices for key buyers.
Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru and Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and Joyjeet Das
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Today, ConocoPhillips (COP) delivered a strong second quarter driven by elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Given its heavy weighting across major energy sector funds, the company’s operational resilience acts as a key performance indicator for the energy ETF market. The upstream firm has gained 1.32% since the report and has returned 20.24% year to date, as of early afternoon trading on August 6.
Key Takeaways ConocoPhillips reported strong second-quarter earnings of $3.42 per share, surpassing consensus estimates of $2.85. This was largely driven by a 36% year-over-year increase in total average realized price. The company’s earnings provide fundamental support for energy sector ETFs. It’s one of the largest holdings in Texas Capital’s OILT at a 7.38% weight and State Street’s XLE at a 6.11% weight. ConocoPhillips also remains a prominent holding in many dividend-focused ETFs like Schwab’s (SCHD) at a 3.67% weight. This reflects the company’s consistent dividend quality and fundamental strength. Energy Giant’s Earnings Results and Operational Outlook ConocoPhillips reported EPS of $3.42, beating consensus estimates of $2.85. The company’s second-quarter net earnings were $3.9 billion in 2026, up from $2.0 billion a year ago. The earnings gain was amplified by a 36% year-over-year rise in the company’s total average realized price. On average, it was able to sell at $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent, significantly exceeding the average realized price of $45.77 per barrel in the same period a year prior, according to investing.com analysis.
The energy company announced that it increased shareholder distributions to $3.0 billion. This includes $2.0 billion in share repurchases and $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends. ConocoPhillips declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.84 per share, payable September 1. The company typically announces annual dividend increases during its third-quarter earnings release in early November.
Regional instability in the Middle East directly impacted output levels in Qatar, alongside higher royalty obligations at its Canadian Surmont asset. The company produced 2,248 MBOED in the second quarter, a 143 MBOED decrease from a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, second-quarter production declined 4% from 2025 levels. Third-quarter production is expected to be 2.29 to 2.32 MMBOED. Full-year production guidance remained unchanged, with expected production of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED.
Energy Sector Exposure With ConocoPhillips serving as a core engine for the entire U.S. upstream market, its earnings beat provides fundamental support for energy sector ETFs. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) holds ConocoPhillips as the fund’s third-largest allocation, accounting for 6.11% of total assets. The company sits behind the integrated majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), who collectively account for 36.09% of XLE’s weight. Tracking the S&P Energy Select Sector Index, the fund provides market-cap weighted exposure to large-cap energy companies in the S&P 500. Across 23 holdings, XLE has gained 29.94% year to date as of early afternoon trading on August 6.
ConocoPhillips is the top holding in the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) at a 17.47% weight. Tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Oil Exploration & Production Index, IEO provides exposure to 43 U.S. companies that are engaged in the production and distribution of oil and gas. The fund has climbed 34.08% in 2026 as oil prices remain elevated compared to the start of the year.
The Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) holds ConocoPhillips as the fund’s second-largest holding at a 7.38% weight, behind ExxonMobil. Tracking the Alerian Texas Weighted Oil and Gas Index, OILT provides economic-value-weighted exposure to 27 companies that actively extract oil and gas within the state of Texas. For index inclusion, firms must be responsible for more than 0.1% of the annual state oil and gas production of Texas over the past 10 years. OILT has climbed 26.48% year to date as robust Texas oil production continues.
ConocoPhillips Role in Dividend ETFs Beyond Energy Sector ETFs, ConocoPhillips is a prominent holding in many dividend ETFs such as the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). ConocoPhillips is a 3.67% weight in SCHD for its consistent dividend quality and fundamental strength. Tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, SCHD provides market-cap weighted exposure to 100 high-quality dividend-paying companies.
The index only includes companies that have paid dividends for at least 10 consecutive years. SCHD’s index focuses on the sustainability and quality of holdings. Quality is measured by debt coverage, ROE, yield, and 5-year dividend growth. The fund has gained 24.65% so far in 2026 as a result of strong energy and defensive stock returns.
For more news, information, and analysis visit the Thematic Investing Content Hub.
vettafi.com is owned by VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”). VettaFi is the index provider for OILT, for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, OILT is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi, and VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of OILT.
11:50am: Jobless claims stay low New U.S. labor market data pointed to continued resilience, with initial jobless claims totaling 199,000 for the week ended August 1, below economists' expectations of 205,000, signaling layoffs remain subdued.
Meanwhile, preliminary second-quarter labor productivity rose 1.4% quarter over quarter, more than double the 0.6% increase forecast by economists, suggesting businesses are generating stronger output per worker despite a slowing economy.
11:10am: Applovin sinks Shares of Applovin were down nearly 20% on Thursday morning after last night's top-line revenue miss and softer-than-expected guidance for the upcoming quarter.
AppLovin reported revenue of $1.924 billion for the quarter ended June 30, up 53% from $1.259 billion a year earlier but below the $1.94 billion consensus estimate.
Diluted earnings per share came in at $3.76, matching analyst expectations.
For the third quarter, AppLovin guided for revenue of between $2.055 billion and $2.085 billion, implying continued year-over-year growth. The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $1.71 billion to $1.74 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 83%.
10:00am: Mixed open US stocks are off to a mixed start on Thursday as investors sort through another busy day of corporate earnings and prepare for more market-moving reports after the closing bell.
The Dow slipped 62 points, or 0.1%, to 54,288 in early trading. The S&P 500 edged up 9 points, or 0.1%, to 7,733, while the Nasdaq gained 45 points, or 0.2%, to 26,409.
Technology stocks are once again driving much of the early action. Sandisk shares tumbled 9% after the memory-chip maker issued guidance that fell short of Wall Street's lofty expectations. Western Digital also moved lower despite posting quarterly results that topped analyst estimates, suggesting investors were focused more on the outlook than the latest earnings.
AppLovin was another notable decliner, with shares plunging 14% after the advertising technology company delivered earnings that disappointed investors.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is attracting attention as its first post-IPO lock-up period expires. Up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors become eligible for sale, raising the possibility of increased volatility.
"SpaceX provides a second source of uncertainty today as its first post-IPO lock-up expires," said Zaheer Anwari, CEO of The Revacy Fund. "As many as 912 million shares held by employees and early investors, valued at roughly $116 billion, will become eligible for sale. That does not mean every share will reach the market, but the potential increase in supply could create further volatility after the stock fell sharply following its first results as a public company."
Looking ahead, investors will be watching several high-profile earnings reports after the market closes, including results from DraftKings, Airbnb and Rigetti Computing, which could set the tone for trading heading into the end of the week.
8:00am: Tech earnings undermine confidence Wall Street was predicted to see a mixed open on Thursday, as another batch of technology earnings undermines confidence and apparent progress towards an Iran deal raises fears of yet another false dawn.
Dow Jones futures were up 57 points, or 0.1%, with the blue-chip index on course to build on the previous session's record close. S&P 500 futures have edged 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.6%.
AppLovin, Western Digital and SanDisk were leading the pre-market declines, falling almost 19%, 15% and 10%, respectively, after reporting overnight. Bucking the trend, eBay was up 1.4%.
This comes off the back of a mixed midweek session, when the Dow rose 0.5%, but the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, ending a four-day winning streak.
Investors are also weighing tentative progress over the Strait of Hormuz, where an agreement has been agreed between Iran and Oman. Pakistan said it hoped this would help restart technical talks between Washington and Tehran.
Tehran said the deal was close to completion, but some Iranian sources rejected Donald Trump’s claim that an agreement was imminent and said important details remained unresolved, with questions remaining over control of shipping and Tehran’s demand for the US blockade of Iranian ports to be lifted.
Oil prices were moving higher despite the diplomatic signals, with West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.3% at $76.20 a barrel, suggesting traders remain wary of placing too much faith in the latest round of optimism.
Today’s economic data includes initial jobless claims, second-quarter productivity, unit labour costs and wholesale trade figures.
Market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB said the market could be a bit "directionless" as we lead up to some major event risk in the form of Friday’s US jobs report.
"Payrolls are always important, but they are taking on extra significance since the Fed has dropped forward guidance."
She also flagged SpaceX, where shares were more than 2% higher in overnight trading, as it "could attempt a recovery later today", with the stock "worth watching closely" today as it faces a big hurdle with stock lock-ups coming to an end.
"It is also a highly volatile stock, so if it recovers it could be a sign of stronger overall sentiment for the index."
On the corporate front, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP, XETRA:YCP), Howmet Aerospace, Datadog and Constellation Energy report before the opening bell, followed by Cloudflare and Monster Beverage after the close.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) shares are trading higher on Thursday after the company reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results and disclosed leadership changes.
• ConocoPhillips stock is moving in positive territory. What’s driving COP shares up?
Earnings SnapshotAdjusted EPS of $3.24, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.88. Revenue came in at $19.52 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $18.80 billion.
The company generated $7.4 billion in operating cash flow. ConocoPhillips ended the quarter with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, along with $1.2 billion in long-term investments.
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Production DetailsTotal production stood at 2,248 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), while Lower 48 production reached 1,479 MBOED.
The company executed an agreement to re-enter Syria, leveraging existing infrastructure to restore and increase production from onshore fields.
ConocoPhillips also expanded its LNG strategy by securing an additional 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of offtake agreements, bringing total LNG offtake commitments to 12 MTPA.
Asset Sale & AcquisitionConocoPhillips signed agreements to divest noncore Lower 48 assets for $1.7 billion, with the transactions closing in July and allowing the company to achieve its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule.
The company also agreed to acquire a 42% stake in a joint venture in Iraq’s Kirkuk region, providing access to long-life conventional redevelopment opportunities at an attractive entry cost and competitive supply economics, with closing expected by year-end 2026.
Leadership ChangeIn a separate release today, ConocoPhillips disclosed that Andy O’Brien, currently chief financial officer and executive vice president of Strategy and Commercial, will succeed Ryan Lance as president and chief executive officer effective Sept. 1, 2026. Ryan Lance will retire from his CEO role and transition to executive chair of the board, continuing to support the company during the leadership transition.
Also, Konnie Haynes-Welsh, currently vice president of Finance and Controller, will succeed O’Brien as senior vice president and chief financial officer, effective September 1, 2026.
Shareholder ReturnsThe company doubled share repurchases during the quarter, bringing total shareholder distributions to $3 billion. ConocoPhillips declared a third quarter dividend of 84 cents per share.
OutlookFor the third quarter, ConocoPhillips sees production of 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
COP Stock Price Activity: ConocoPhillips shares were up 1.10% at $116.30 at the time of publication Thursday.
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Key Takeaways COP's Q2 2026 EPS more than doubled, topping estimates as stronger commodity prices lifted profitability.ConocoPhillips' average realized price increased 36%, offsetting a 6% decline in total production.ConocoPhillips reaffirmed 2026 guidance and returned $3B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) reported adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share for the second quarter of 2026, up 128.2% from $1.42 a year earlier. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96 per share by 9.5%.
Total revenues of $19.52 billion increased 32.4% from $14.74 billion a year ago. The top line surpassed the consensus mark of $17.54 billion by 11.29%.
The strong quarterly results were driven by higher commodity prices.
Total production was 2,248 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), down 6% from the year-ago quarter.
COP's Revenue Growth Reflects Stronger PricingSales and other operating revenues were $19.16 billion, up from $14 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Equity in earnings of affiliates was $239 million, while other income totaled $108 million.
ConocoPhillips’ average realized price was $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent, 36% above the year-ago level of $45.77 per barrel of oil equivalent. The sharp pricing improvement more than offset lower production and provided the primary lift to quarterly earnings.
ConocoPhillips Posts Higher Adjusted EarningsThe company reported net income of $3.93 billion, or $3.23 per share, compared with $1.97 billion, or $1.56 per share, a year earlier. Excluding special items, adjusted earnings totaled $3.95 billion, up from $1.79 billion.
Second-quarter special items reduced earnings by $20 million after tax. This included transaction, integration and restructuring expenses, pending claims and settlements and a gain related to an interest-rate hedge associated with the Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 investment.
COP's Lower 48 Operations Drive Segment GainsAdjusted earnings from the Lower 48 segment increased to $2.58 billion from $1.19 billion in the prior-year quarter. The segment remained the largest contributor to consolidated adjusted earnings as stronger prices supported profitability.
Alaska adjusted earnings increased to $522 million from $135 million. Canada generated $378 million, up from $149 million, while adjusted earnings from Europe, the Middle East and North Africa rose to $346 million from $237 million. Asia Pacific contributed $389 million compared with $330 million a year ago.
ConocoPhillips Details Production PerformanceTotal company production declined 143 MBOED. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production decreased 98 MBOED or 4%. Organic growth in the Lower 48 was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties.
Lower 48 production reached 1,479 MBOED. The Delaware Basin contributed 720 MBOED, followed by Eagle Ford at 363 MBOED, the Midland Basin at 202 MBOED and the Bakken at 189 MBOED. Management highlighted record production from its Permian position.
COP Controls Core Costs as Other Expenses RiseTotal costs and expenses increased 14.6% to $13.44 billion from $11.73 billion in the prior-year quarter. Purchased commodity costs rose to $6.71 billion from $5.09 billion, reflecting the stronger commodity-price environment.
Production and operating expenses declined 5.5% to $2.43 billion, while selling, general and administrative expenses fell 24.8% to $188 million. However, taxes other than income taxes increased to $793 million from $572 million, and depreciation, depletion and amortization rose to $2.98 billion.
ConocoPhillips Maintains Cash FlowCash provided by operating activities totaled $7.43 billion. Excluding working-capital changes, cash from operations reached $7.18 billion. The company funded $3 billion of capital expenditures and investments during the quarter.
COP’s Balance SheetAs of June 30, COP had $6.57 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $1.12 billion in short-term investments and $1.16 billion in long-term debt securities.
ConocoPhillips Strengthens Shareholder ReturnsShareholder distributions totaled $3 billion, comprising $2 billion of share repurchases and $1 billion of ordinary dividends.
COP Reaffirms Full-Year GuidanceConocoPhillips expects third-quarter 2026 production of 2.29-2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. All full-year guidance items were reaffirmed.
The company declared a third-quarter ordinary dividend of 84 cents per share. Management reiterated that COP remains on track to return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders in 2026.
COP’s Zacks Rank & Key PicksConocoPhillips currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Some better-ranked stocks from the energy sector are PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) , HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO - Free Report) and Cactus, Inc. (WHD - Free Report) . PBF sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, while DINO and WHD carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
PBF reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $6.22 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.05.
As of June 30, 2026, PBF had total debt of $1.75 billion, and cash and cash equivalents of $894.1 million.
HF Sinclair reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $5.31 per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.39.
As of June 30, 2026, DINO had total debt of $2.77 billion, and cash and cash equivalents of $2.26 billion.
Cactus reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents.
As of June 30, 2026, WHD had cash and cash equivalents of $365 million.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.24 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.42 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +9.46%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this energy company would post earnings of $1.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.89, delivering a surprise of +9.25%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
ConocoPhillips, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, posted revenues of $19.52 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.32%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $14.74 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
ConocoPhillips shares have added about 22.9% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.8%.
What's Next for ConocoPhillips?While ConocoPhillips has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for ConocoPhillips was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.21 on $17.01 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $9.49 on $67.81 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States is currently in the bottom 18% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Prairie Operating Co. (PROP - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -88.9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
Prairie Operating Co.'s revenues are expected to be $108.22 million, up 58.9% from the year-ago quarter.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) reported $19.52 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.4%. EPS of $3.24 for the same period compares to $1.42 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +11.32% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.54 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.96, the EPS surprise was +9.46%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.
Here is how ConocoPhillips performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Natural gas produced per day - Total company: 3710 millions of cubic feet per day versus 3530.99 millions of cubic feet per day estimated by five analysts on average.Total production per day: 2101 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day compared to the 2211.96 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day average estimate based on five analysts.Crude oil produced per day - Total company: 1094 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 1146.66 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by five analysts on average.Average Sales Price - Natural gas - Total company: $2.58 compared to the $3.27 average estimate based on four analysts.Natural gas liquids produced per day - Total company: 420 millions of barrels of oil per day versus the four-analyst average estimate of 406.73 millions of barrels of oil per day.Average Sales Price - Crude oil - Total company per bbl: $99.40 versus the three-analyst average estimate of $97.99.Bitumen produced per day: 115 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 112.83 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by three analysts on average.Crude oil produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 122 millions of barrels of oil per day compared to the 110.49 millions of barrels of oil per day average estimate based on two analysts.Natural gas liquids produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 8 millions of barrels of oil per day versus 7.97 millions of barrels of oil per day estimated by two analysts on average.Natural gas produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa: 514 millions of cubic feet per day versus 510.39 millions of cubic feet per day estimated by two analysts on average.Revenues- Sales and other operating revenues: $19.16 billion compared to the $18.14 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +36.8% year over year.Revenues- Equity in earnings of affiliates: $239 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $173.93 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -24.1%.View all Key Company Metrics for ConocoPhillips here>>>
Shares of ConocoPhillips have returned +3.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.3% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.
ConocoPhillips beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter adjusted profit on Thursday, as stronger commodity prices and cost-cutting measures helped offset a decline in its output.
ConocoPhillips said on Thursday it has completed the sale of $1.7 billion of noncore Lower 48 assets in July, helping the U.S. oil producer reach its $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, compared with second-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.0 billion, or $1.56 per share. Excluding special items, second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings were $4.0 billion, or $3.24 per share, compared with second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share.
“ConocoPhillips delivered strong second-quarter results with exceptional operational performance, record production from our peer-leading Permian position and disciplined execution across the business, all while continuing to progress our strategic priorities,” said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer. “We doubled our quarterly share repurchases, achieved our $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule, secured low cost of supply opportunities in the Middle East, and increased our LNG offtake to 12 MTPA. We are executing well, delivering on our strategy, and remain on track to achieve our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.”
Second-quarter highlights and recent announcements
Delivered total company and Lower 48 production of 2,248 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) and 1,479 MBOED, respectively.Increased shareholder distributions to $3.0 billion, including $2.0 billion through share repurchases and $1.0 billion through the ordinary dividend.Signed agreements to sell noncore Lower 48 assets for $1.7 billion, which closed in July, achieving $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule.Signed an agreement to acquire a 42% interest in a joint venture in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq, accessing long-life, conventional redevelopment opportunities at an attractive entry cost and competitive cost of supply; closing expected by year-end 2026.Executed an agreement for re-entry into Syria, leveraging existing infrastructure to restore and increase production at onshore fields.Advanced commercial LNG strategy with additional 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of offtake agreements, bringing total LNG offtake to 12 MTPA.Ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $8.1 billion and long-term investments of $1.2 billion. Quarterly dividend
ConocoPhillips declared a third-quarter ordinary dividend of $0.84 per share, payable Sept. 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on Aug. 17, 2026.
Second-quarter review
Production for the second quarter of 2026 was 2,248 MBOED, a decrease of 143 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, second-quarter 2026 production decreased 98 MBOED or 4% from the same period a year ago. Organic growth from Lower 48 was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties.
Lower 48 delivered production of 1,479 MBOED, including 720 MBOED from the Delaware Basin, 202 MBOED from the Midland Basin, 363 MBOED from the Eagle Ford and 189 MBOED from the Bakken.
Earnings and adjusted earnings increased from the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher prices. The company’s total average realized price was $62.33 per BOE, 36% higher than the $45.77 per BOE realized in the second quarter of 2025.
For the quarter, cash provided by operating activities was $7.4 billion. Excluding a change in working capital, ConocoPhillips generated CFO of $7.2 billion. In addition, ConocoPhillips received $0.2 billion of disposition proceeds from the sale of noncore assets. The company funded $3.0 billion of capital expenditures and investments, repurchased $2.0 billion of shares, and paid $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends.
Six-month review
ConocoPhillips’ six-month 2026 earnings were $6.1 billion, or $5.00 per share, compared with six-month 2025 earnings of $4.8 billion, or $3.79 per share. Six-month 2026 adjusted earnings were $6.3 billion, or $5.13 per share, compared with six-month 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.5 billion, or $3.52 per share.
Production for the first six months of 2026 was 2,278 MBOED, a decrease of 113 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production decreased 57 MBOED or 2% from the same period a year ago. Organic growth from Lower 48 was more than offset by the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties.
The company’s total realized price during this period was $56.37 per BOE, 14% higher than the $49.54 per BOE realized in the first six months of 2025.
In the first six months of 2026, cash provided by operating activities was $11.7 billion. Excluding a change in working capital, ConocoPhillips generated CFO of $12.6 billion and received disposition proceeds of $0.2 billion. The company funded $6.0 billion of capital expenditures and investments, repurchased $3.0 billion of shares, and paid $2.1 billion in ordinary dividends.
Outlook
Third-quarter 2026 production is expected to be 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
All full-year guidance items remain unchanged.
ConocoPhillips will host a conference call today at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time to discuss this announcement. To listen to the call and view related presentation materials and supplemental information, go to www.conocophillips.com/investor. A recording and transcript of the call will be posted afterward.
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About ConocoPhillips
As a leading global exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips is uniquely equipped to deliver reliable, responsibly produced oil and gas. Our deep, durable and diverse portfolio is built to meet growing global energy demands. Together with our high-performing operations and continuously advancing technology, we are well positioned to deliver strong, consistent financial results, now and for decades to come. Visit us at www.conocophillips.com.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE "SAFE HARBOR" PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
This news release contains forward-looking statements as defined under the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future events, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial position, business strategy, budgets, projected revenues, costs and plans, and objectives of management for future operations. Words and phrases such as “ambition,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “budget,” “continue,” “could,” “effort,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “guidance,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “outlook,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “projection,” “seek,” “should,” “target,” “will,” “would,” and other similar words can be used to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Where, in any forward-looking statement, the company expresses an expectation or belief as to future results, such expectation or belief is expressed in good faith and believed to be reasonable at the time such forward-looking statement is made. However, these statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and other factors beyond our control. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from what is presented include, but are not limited to, the following: effects of volatile commodity prices, including prolonged periods of low commodity prices, which may adversely impact our operating results and our ability to execute on our strategy and could result in recognition of impairment charges on our long-lived assets, leaseholds and nonconsolidated equity investments; global and regional changes in the demand, supply, prices, differentials or other market conditions affecting oil and gas, including changes as a result of any ongoing military conflict and the global response to such conflict, security threats on facilities and infrastructure, global health crises, the imposition or lifting of crude oil production quotas or other actions that might be imposed by OPEC and other producing countries or the resulting company or third-party actions in response to such changes; the potential for insufficient liquidity or other factors that could impact our ability to repurchase shares and declare and pay dividends; potential failures or delays in achieving expected reserve or production levels from existing and future oil and gas developments, including due to operating hazards, drilling risks and the inherent uncertainties in predicting reserves and reservoir performance; reductions in our reserve replacement rates, whether as a result of significant declines in commodity prices or otherwise; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities or the inability to obtain access to exploratory acreage; failure to progress or complete announced and future development plans related to constructing, modifying or operating E&P and LNG facilities, or unexpected changes in costs, inflationary pressures or technical equipment related to such plans; significant operational or investment changes imposed by legislative and regulatory initiatives and international agreements addressing environmental concerns, including initiatives addressing the impact of global climate change, such as limiting or reducing GHG emissions, regulations concerning hydraulic fracturing, methane emissions, flaring or water disposal and prohibitions on commodity exports; substantial investment in and increased adoption of competing or alternative energy sources; risks, uncertainties and high costs that may prevent us from successfully executing on our Climate-related Risk Strategy; lack or inadequacy of, or disruptions in reliable transportation for our crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG and NGLs; inability to timely obtain or maintain permits, including those necessary for construction, drilling and/or development, or inability to make capital expenditures required to maintain compliance with any necessary permits or applicable laws or regulations; potential disruption or interruption of our operations and any resulting consequences due to accidents, extraordinary weather events, supply chain disruptions, civil unrest, political events, war, terrorism, cybersecurity threats or information technology failures, constraints or disruptions; liability for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under existing or future environmental regulations and litigation; liability resulting from pending or future litigation or our failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations; general domestic and international economic, political and diplomatic developments, including deterioration of international trade relationships, the imposition of trade restrictions or tariffs relating to commodities and material or products (such as aluminum and steel) used in the operation of our business, expropriation of assets, changes in governmental policies relating to commodity pricing, including the imposition of price caps, sanctions or other adverse regulations or taxation policies; competition and consolidation in the oil and gas E&P industry, including competition for sources of supply, services, personnel and equipment; any limitations on our access to capital or increase in our cost of capital or insurance, including as a result of illiquidity, changes or uncertainty in domestic or international financial markets, foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations or investment sentiment; challenges or delays to our execution of, or successful implementation of any asset dispositions or acquisitions we elect to pursue; potential disruption of our operations, including the diversion of management time and attention; our inability to realize anticipated cost savings or capital expenditure reductions; difficulties integrating acquired businesses and technologies; or other unanticipated changes; our inability to deploy the net proceeds from any asset dispositions that are pending or that we elect to undertake in the future in the manner and timeframe we anticipate, if at all; the operation, financing and management of risks of our joint ventures; the ability of our customers and other contractual counterparties to satisfy their obligations to us, including our ability to collect payments when due from the government of Venezuela or PDVSA; uncertainty as to the long-term value of our common stock; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting our business generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless legally required, ConocoPhillips expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We may use the term “resource” in this news release that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information – To supplement the presentation of the company’s financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information contain certain financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with GAAP, including adjusted earnings (calculated on a consolidated and on a segment-level basis), adjusted earnings per share (EPS), free cash flow (FCF) and cash from operations (CFO).
The company believes that the non-GAAP measure adjusted earnings (both on an aggregate and a per-share basis) is useful to investors to help facilitate comparisons of the company’s operating performance associated with the company’s core business operations across periods on a consistent basis and with the performance and cost structures of peer companies by excluding items that do not directly relate to the company’s core business operations. Adjusted earnings is defined as earnings removing the impact of special items. Adjusted EPS is a measure of the company’s diluted net earnings per share excluding special items. The company further believes that the non-GAAP measure CFO is useful to investors to help understand changes in cash provided by operating activities excluding the timing effects associated with operating working capital changes across periods on a consistent basis and for comparison with the performance of peer companies. The company believes that the above-mentioned non-GAAP measures, when viewed in combination with the company’s results prepared in accordance with GAAP, provide a more complete understanding of the factors and trends affecting the company’s business and performance. The company’s Board of Directors and management also use these non-GAAP measures to analyze the company’s operating performance across periods when overseeing and managing the company’s business.
Each of the non-GAAP measures included in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information has limitations as an analytical tool and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for an analysis of the company’s results calculated in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all companies use identical calculations, the company’s presentation of non-GAAP measures in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information may not be comparable to similarly titled measures disclosed by other companies, including companies in our industry. The company may also change the calculation of any of the non-GAAP measures included in this news release and the accompanying supplemental financial information from time to time in light of its then existing operations to include other adjustments that may impact its operations.
Reconciliations of each non-GAAP measure presented in this news release to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP are included in the release.
Other Terms – This news release also may contain the term pro forma underlying production. Pro forma underlying production reflects the impact of closed acquisitions and closed dispositions as of June 30, 2026. The impact of closed acquisitions and dispositions assumes a closing date of Jan. 1, 2025. The company believes that underlying production is useful to investors to compare production reflecting the impact of closed acquisitions and dispositions on a consistent go-forward basis across periods and with peer companies. Return of capital is defined as the total of the ordinary dividend and share repurchases. References in the release to project capital exclude capitalized interest and references to earnings refer to net income.
ConocoPhillips
Table 1: Reconciliation of earnings to adjusted earnings
$ millions, except as indicated
2Q26
2Q25
2026 YTD
2025 YTD
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Pre-tax
Income
tax
After-
tax
Per
share of
common
stock
(dollars)
Earnings
$
3,931
3.23
1,971
1.56
6,114
5.00
4,820
3.79
Adjustments:
(Gain) loss on asset sales
—
—
—
—
(274
)
64
(210
)
(0.17
)
—
—
(338
)
23
(315
)
(0.25
)
Transaction, integration and restructuring expenses
32
(7
)
25
0.02
58
(12
)
46
0.04
47
(10
)
37
0.03
111
(24
)
87
0.07
(Gain) loss in interest rate hedge1
(37
)
9
(28
)
(0.02
)
(18
)
4
(14
)
(0.01
)
(28
)
7
(21
)
(0.02
)
(33
)
7
(26
)
(0.02
)
Pending claims and settlements
30
(7
)
23
0.02
—
—
—
—
113
(27
)
86
0.07
(123
)
29
(94
)
(0.07
)
(Gain) loss on contingent liability measurement2
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
78
(19
)
59
0.05
—
—
—
—
Adjusted earnings / (loss)
$
3,951
3.24
1,793
1.42
6,275
5.13
4,472
3.52
1 Interest rate hedging (gain) loss from PALNG Phase 1 Investment.
2 Related to our Surmont acquisition.
The income tax effects of the special items are primarily calculated based on the statutory rate of the jurisdiction in which the discrete item resides.
Certain totals may differ from the sum of the underlying components due to rounding.
ConocoPhillips
Table 2: Reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to cash from operations
$ millions, except as indicated
2Q26
2026 YTD
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
$
7,434
11,729
Adjustments:
Net operating working capital changes
258
(834
)
Cash from operations
$
7,176
12,563
ConocoPhillips
Table 3: Reconciliation of reported production to pro forma underlying production
MBOED, except as indicated
2Q26
2Q25
2026 YTD
2025 YTD
Total reported ConocoPhillips production
2,248
2,391
2,278
2,391
Closed Dispositions1
—
(45
)
—
(56
)
Closed Acquisitions
—
—
—
—
Total pro forma underlying production
2,248
2,346
2,278
2,335
1 Includes production related to various Lower 48 noncore dispositions.
Certain totals may differ from the sum of the underlying components due to rounding.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260806732689/en/
ConocoPhillips on Thursday named finance chief Andy O'Brien as CEO, succeeding Ryan Lance, who will transition to executive chair on September 1 after more than a decade leading the U.S. oil producer.
As of now, ConocoPhillips has an annual dividend yield of 2.85%. That’s a quarterly dividend amount of 84 cents per share ($3.36 a year).
To earn $500 monthly from ConocoPhillips, start with a yearly target: $6,000 ($500 x 12 months).
Next, take this amount and divide it by COP’s $3.36 dividend: $6,000 / $3.36 = 1,786 shares.
So, an investor would need to own approximately $210,641 worth of ConocoPhillips, or 1,786 shares to generate a monthly dividend income of $500.
Assuming a more conservative goal of $100 monthly ($1,200 annually), we do the same calculation: $1,200 / $3.36 = 357 shares, or $42,105 to generate a monthly dividend income of $100.
Note that dividend yield can change on a rolling basis; The dividend payment and the stock price fluctuate over time.
The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the current stock price. As the stock price changes, the dividend yield will also change.
For example, if a stock pays an annual dividend of $2 and its current price is $50, its dividend yield would be 4%. However, if the stock price increases to $60, the dividend yield would decrease to 3.33% ($2/$60).
Conversely, if the stock price decreases to $40, the dividend yield would increase to 5% ($2/$40).
Further, the dividend payment itself can also change over time, which can also impact the dividend yield. If a company increases its dividend payment, the dividend yield will increase even if the stock price remains the same. Similarly, if a company decreases its dividend payment, the dividend yield will decrease.
COP Price ActionShares of ConocoPhillips fell by 1% to close at $117.94 on Tuesday.
Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $2.89 per share, up from $1.42 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for COP’s quarterly revenue is $19.83 billion. It reported $14.74 billion last year, according to Benzinga Pro.
As per the latest news, ConocoPhillips, on July 17, agreed to acquire a 42% interest in BP Plc’s (NYSE:BP) BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BP ECKL).
Photo via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Key Takeaways ConocoPhillips is expected to post higher Q2 earnings and revenues from year-ago levels.COP's Q2 EPS estimate of $2.96 implies 108.5% growth, with revenues seen rising 19% to $17.54B.Higher oil prices may aid COP, but volatility, unhedged output and Qatar's shut-in could weigh on results. ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6, before the opening bell.
Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the performance of the leading independent exploration and production player. However, before that, it would be worth reviewing COP’s performance in the previous quarter.
Highlights of COP’s Q1 Earnings & Surprise HistoryIn the last reported quarter, COP’s earnings of $1.89 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73, driven by lower costs and improved operational efficiency.
ConocoPhillips’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 1.03%. This is depicted in the graph below:
The upstream player beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 5.78%. This is depicted in the graph below.
COP’s Estimate TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $2.96 has witnessed one upward and four downward revisions in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 108.5% from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $17.54 billion indicates a 19% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.
Factors to Consider for COPConocoPhillips is expected to have sustained a stable performance during the second quarter, driven by higher commodity prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the West Texas Intermediate spot price for April and May 2026 was $100.32 and $102.13 per barrel, respectively, before falling to $84.81 in June. These prices marked a significant increase from the $63.54, $62.17 and $68.17 per barrel reported in the corresponding period of 2025. The pricing environment is expected to have supported the company's upstream earnings.
However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East likely resulted in significant price volatility during the second quarter, adding uncertainty to ConocoPhillips' operating environment. In addition, the company remains unhedged on its oil and LNG production. While this strategy allows it to fully benefit from higher commodity prices, it also leaves earnings more exposed to downside price movements. Further, Qatar’s production shut-in may have affected its LNG operations in the region, potentially weighing on overall performance.
These factors are anticipated to have affected volume and pricing dynamics, potentially hampering COP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
COP's Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not predict an earnings beat for COP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: COP has an Earnings ESP of -1.33%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks to ConsiderHere are some other energy firms that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Cheniere Energy (LNG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.69% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cheniere Energy is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNG’s earnings is pegged at $2.80 per share, implying a 61.6% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.33% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Occidental Petroleum is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY’s earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, indicating a 402.6% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
Excelerate Energy (EE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.04% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Excelerate Energy is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EE’s earnings is pegged at 35 cents per share, implying a 2.9% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
Wall Street analysts forecast that ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) will report quarterly earnings of $2.96 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 108.5%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $17.54 billion, exhibiting an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago quarter.
The current level reflects a downward revision of 13.4% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.
Prior to a company's earnings release, it is of utmost importance to factor in any revisions made to the earnings projections. These revisions serve as a critical gauge for predicting potential investor behaviors with respect to the stock. Empirical studies consistently reveal a strong link between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors typically rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to gauge how the business may have fared during the quarter, examining analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics often helps gain a deeper insight.
In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain ConocoPhillips metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenues' will likely reach $18.14 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +29.5% from the prior-year quarter.
Analysts forecast 'Revenues- Equity in earnings of affiliates' to reach $173.93 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -44.8%.
The consensus estimate for 'Natural gas produced per day - Total company' stands at . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported in the same quarter of the previous year.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Total production per day' of 2,211.96 thousands of barrels of oil equivalent. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 2,391.00 thousands of barrels of oil equivalent.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Crude oil produced per day - Total company' at 1,146.66 thousands of barrels of oil. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 1,155.00 thousands of barrels of oil.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Average Sales Price - Natural gas - Total company' should come in at $3.27 . The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $4.16 .
Analysts predict that the 'Natural gas liquids produced per day - Total company' will reach 406.73 thousands of barrels of oil. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 424.00 thousands of barrels of oil.
Analysts expect 'Average Sales Price - Crude oil - Total company per bbl' to come in at $97.99 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $64.23 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Bitumen produced per day' should arrive at 112.83 thousands of barrels of oil. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 144.00 thousands of barrels of oil in the same quarter last year.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Crude oil produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa' will reach 110.49 thousands of barrels of oil. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 120.00 thousands of barrels of oil in the same quarter of the previous year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Natural gas liquids produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa' reaching 7.97 thousands of barrels of oil. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 8.00 thousands of barrels of oil in the same quarter last year.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Natural gas produced per day - Europe, Middle East and North Africa' will reach . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of .
View all Key Company Metrics for ConocoPhillips here>>>
Shares of ConocoPhillips have experienced a change of +15% in the past month compared to the +0.2% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), COP is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $120.48, demonstrating a +1.22% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.7% gain on the day. At the same time, the Dow added 0.53%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1%.
Shares of the energy company witnessed a gain of 13.65% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Oils-Energy sector with its gain of 7.51%, and the S&P 500's loss of 0.49%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of ConocoPhillips in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on August 6, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $2.96, signifying a 108.45% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $17.54 billion, up 18.98% from the year-ago period.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $9.2 per share and a revenue of $66.91 billion, demonstrating changes of +49.35% and +8.72%, respectively, from the preceding year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for ConocoPhillips should also be noted by investors. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 4.75% lower. ConocoPhillips is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).
Looking at its valuation, ConocoPhillips is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 12.94. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 19.63 for its industry.
It's also important to note that COP currently trades at a PEG ratio of 1.44. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.79 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. At present, this industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 189, placing it within the bottom 24% of over 250 industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Over the past month, shares of this energy company have returned +14.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.5% change. During this period, the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, which ConocoPhillips falls in, has gained 9.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, ConocoPhillips is expected to post earnings of $2.96 per share, indicating a change of +108.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -13.4% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $9.2 points to a change of +49.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -4.8%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.14 indicates a change of -11.5% from what ConocoPhillips is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -5.2%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for ConocoPhillips.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For ConocoPhillips, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $17.54 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +19%. For the current and next fiscal years, $66.91 billion and $64.56 billion estimates indicate +8.7% and -3.5% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryConocoPhillips reported revenues of $16.05 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6.1%. EPS of $1.89 for the same period compares with $2.09 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.81 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +8.41%. The EPS surprise was +9.25%.
Over the last four quarters, ConocoPhillips surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
ConocoPhillips is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about ConocoPhillips. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 6. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis energy company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.96 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +108.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $17.54 billion, up 19% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 13.4% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for ConocoPhillips?For ConocoPhillips, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -1.33%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that ConocoPhillips will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that ConocoPhillips would post earnings of $1.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.89, delivering a surprise of +9.25%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ConocoPhillips doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player's Expected ResultsConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $2.96 for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of +108.5%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $17.54 billion, up 19% from the year-ago quarter.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for ConocoPhillips has been revised 13.4% down to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of -1.33%, reflecting a lower Most Accurate Estimate.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that ConocoPhillips will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
SummaryDelta Air Lines was a contributor during the quarter. Fuel prices spiked in March following the onset of the Iran War, creating a near-term headwind for airline profitability.Intercontinental Exchange stock price declined due to market concerns about AI disruption and potential competition from new exchanges launching perpetual futures.We were pleased to initiate a position in Equitable Holdings at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value. Thapana Onphalai/iStock via Getty Images
The following segment was excerpted from the Oakmark U.S. Large Value Strategy Q2 2026 Commentary.
Portfolio Performance The portfolio's return was 1.94% (net) for the reporting period. This compares to the Russell 1000 Value Index that returned
OPEC+ appears poised to pause its phased output increases after September. The group of OPEC members and several large oil-producing non-members have been steadily raising their collective output due to a severe supply shortage caused by the war with Iran. However, according to a Reuters report, it doesn’t plan to make any additional changes this year.
Here’s a look at what this could mean for oil stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rollback reversedCore members of OPEC+, which includes Saudia Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, will meet early next month to set their output target for September. The group expects to increase their production target by about 188,000 barrels per day (BPD) for September. That’s the same monthly increase as June, July, and August. OPEC+ members have been increasing their production quotas due to the impact of the war with Iran on the oil market.
The September increase would mark the end of their phased rollback of a 1.65 million BPD supply cut that the group agreed to in 2023 to boost oil prices. They have been steadily increasing their collective production allotment this year to help offset the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on supplies. However, while OPEC+ has agreed to increase output, several members continue to struggle to get oil to the global market due to supply disruptions. For example, Iraq’s oil output has plunged from 4 million BPD before the war to around 1.4 million BPD.
OPEC’s strategy of limiting member production has already led the UAE to leave the group this past May. Meanwhile, Iraq recently threatened to leave OPEC if it couldn’t increase its output. OPEC’s decision to maintain its production after September through the end of the year could hasten Iraq’s departure, especially if OPEC doesn’t boost its production quota for 2027.
The potential impact on oil stocksOPEC’s likely decision to pause additional output cuts could impact supplies later this year. The Strait of Hormuz has remained disrupted, forcing the oil market to burn through oil inventories and emergency stockpiles. The economy will eventually need to refill these shock absorbers, which could keep crude prices elevated. Goldman Sachs recently warned that oil could top $120 a barrel in the near term and average $100 next year if current disruptions persist. Higher oil prices would enable oil companies to make even more money.
Another potential impact from OPEC’s decision is that it could ultimately drive Iraq to leave the group. That could have meaningful implications for several major oil companies.
Chevron (CVX -0.81%) is working towards agreements to enter the Iraqi oil market. It recently signed memorandums of understanding with its government covering two oil fields, including the potential assumption of operational control over the large West Qurna 2, which alone accounts for 0.5% of global supply and 10% of Iraq’s output. Chevron is also considering a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. If Iraq leaves OPEC or receives a meaningful increase in its production quota, it could enable Chevron to accelerate production growth in the country.
Today's Change
(
-0.81
%) $
-1.54
Current Price
$
188.46
Meanwhile, fellow U.S. oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP -1.20%) recently agreed to buy a 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk. That investment will help support the ongoing development of four large-scale oil fields currently producing in the country. The fields hold an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil that the companies can recover through rehabilitation, redevelopment, and optimization activities. There’s also additional exploration potential. If Iraq can produce more oil in the future, it could enable ConocoPhillips and BP to invest more money and increase production more quickly.
A pause has potentially meaningful long-term ramificationsOPEC+ seems likely to pause any additional production increases after September. That could impact the oil market later this year as the global economy seeks to rebuild stockpiles caused by the current supply disruption. Meanwhile, it could have a longer-term impact if it drives Iraq to follow the UAE’s lead and leave the group. That would allow the country to increase production at will, potentially benefiting Chevron and ConocoPhillips. This potential catalyst makes OPEC’s future moves worth watching as it could have a meaningful impact on oil stocks.
Matt DiLallo has positions in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends BP and ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Oil prices remain at the forefront of all financial debates as the US-Iran conflict and the related friction in the Strait of Hormuz continue.
While rising energy prices often create widespread macroeconomic headwinds, if oil settles above $100 per barrel, it will represent a cash-generation windfall for the established upstream producers.
Firms with low breakeven production costs, unhedged output, and “disciplined” capital allocation stand to generate record free cash flow in a sustained high-price environment.
Here are three well-positioned oil stocks primed to deliver outsized returns if crude settles in the triple digits.
As the world’s largest independent exploration and production firm, ConocoPhillips offers “pure-play” exposure to rising oil prices without the margin compression refining arms often face during supply spikes.
The company maintains an impressive cost structure – with average supply costs situated in the $30s per barrel range across its core Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken positions.
Following the strategic Marathon Oil acquisition, ConocoPhillips expanded its low-cost asset base and operational efficiency.
Because COP’s production remains overwhelmingly unhedged, every dollar oil moves above $100 drops almost straight to its bottom line (excluding royalties, taxes, and opex).
Management projects billions in incremental cash flow by 2029 – much of which will boost capital returns via buybacks and dividends. ConocoPhillips stock currently pays a healthy dividend yield of 2.86%.
ExxonMobil stock represents the premier mega-cap play for sustained $100 crude.
The integrated titan boasts unmatched operational scale, anchored by extraordinarily low-cost deepwater assets in Guyana and massive shale production in the Permian Basin.
While higher feedstock costs can temporarily squeeze downstream refining margins, XOM’s upstream division dominates earnings during crude rallies.
In 2025, the company recorded $28.8 billion in earnings while returning more than $37 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
With a fortress balance sheet and decades of dividend growth and supply security, ExxonMobil is positioned to convert triple-digit oil directly into massive shareholder capital returns with minimal downside default risk.
A 2.66% dividend yield makes XOM shares even more attractive for income-focused investors.
Occidental Petroleum provides one of the highest operational leverage profiles to crude oil spikes in the large-cap energy sector.
Known for its extensive Permian Basin acreage and direct-drive cash flow mechanics, Occidental’s earnings sensitivity to oil price swings is among the highest of its peers.
In a sub-$70 oil world, OXY focuses heavily on debt service and operational discipline; however, when crude breaks above $100, the company’s cash generation ramps significantly.
Beyond rapid balance sheet deleveraging, high crude prices accelerate cash returns through share buybacks and common dividend expansion.
Occidental Petroleum’s aggressive cost-cutting and high-margin production profile position it as a potent upside engine in a sustained high-barrel environment.
Much like its peers on this list, OXY stock also currently pays a dividend yield of 1.89%.
All things being equal, when crude oil prices rise, the fortunes of energy exploration and production (E&P) companies increase (as do their share prices). When said prices decline, the opposite is often true. This was the key dynamic behind upstream oil company ConocoPhillips' (COP -3.89%) nearly 4% drop on Monday.
The costs of war As with crude prices generally of late, the most recent gyrations were mostly due to the Iran war. Both sides pulled back from direct military action, with President Trump stating that his administration was "giving talks some space," implying some level of diplomatic discussion between the two sides.
Image source: Getty Images.
On those optimistic notes, oil prices weakened in anticipation of progress toward a resolution of the conflict. Hence the deleterious effect on the market values of price-dependent E&P titans such as ConocoPhillips.
We should bear in mind, though, that the war is far from over. As we've seen since it began in February, such lulls can suddenly and unexpectedly descend into kinetic military action; the reverse is also true. In the likely case the former recurs, prices will almost certainly pop as they have before.
Today's Change
(
-3.89
%) $
-4.68
Current Price
$
115.58
Price gambles This remains an unpredictable situation that can flare up or ease at any point, so it's going to be very challenging for investors to time the peaks and valleys for an impacted stock like ConocoPhillips.
Ultimately, I believe the U.S. and Iran will have to reach some form of settlement, which will almost certainly pull the rug out from under those prices. Given all that, I'd avoid E&P stocks for now.
Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Investors choosing between State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE +0.40%) and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN -3.21%) face a choice between low-cost traditional fossil fuel exposure and a broader, utility-heavy renewable energy basket.
Both funds target the energy industry but offer fundamentally different strategies. While the State Street fund tracks the performance of large-cap energy companies within the S&P 500, ICLN focuses on global companies that produce energy from renewable sources like solar and wind. This comparison highlights how these distinct approaches impact cost, volatility, and historical returns, noting that the State Street fund has $39.5 billion in assets under management (AUM) compared to the iShares fund at $2.4 billion.
Snapshot (cost & size)MetricICLNXLEIssueriSharesSPDRShare price$18.37 (as of 2026-07-23)$59.38 (as of 2026-07-23)Expense ratio0.39%0.08%1-yr return (as of July 23, 2026)33.20%41.00%Dividend yield1.00%2.60%Beta1.110.41AUM$2.4B$39.5BBeta measures price volatility relative to the S&P 500; beta is calculated from monthly returns over the available fund history (up to five years). The 1-yr return represents total return over the trailing 12 months. Dividend yield is the trailing-12-month distribution yield as of the close of trading on July 23.
The State Street fund is significantly more affordable, sporting an expense ratio of 0.08%, which is nearly five times lower than the 0.39% charged by the iShares fund. Investors looking for income may also prefer XLE, as it offers a higher payout with its 2.60% trailing-12-month dividend yield.
Performance & risk comparisonMetricICLNXLEMax drawdown (5 yr)(57.20%)(26.00%)Growth of $1,000 over 5 years (total return)$869$2,935What's insideThe State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF holds 21 companies, providing 100% exposure to the energy sector. Its largest positions include Exxonmobil Holdings (XOM -0.04%) at 20.3%, Chevron (CVX +0.19%) at 14.4%, and ConocoPhillips (COP +0.07%) at 5.9%. This fund was launched in 1998 and is engineered to mirror the price appreciation and dividend income of the Energy Select Sector Index. It grants precise access to oil, natural gas, and consumable fuel firms.
iShares Global Clean Energy ETF takes a broader approach with 105 holdings across several sectors, including technology at 34%, and utilities at 33%, and industrials at 31%. Its top holdings include Bloom Energy Inc (BE -14.54%) at 14.8%, First Solar Inc (FSLR -1.52%) at 8.4%, and Nextpower Inc (NXP +0.14%) 7.3%. This fund incorporates an ESG screen and focuses on sustainable power solutions globally, mirroring an index of international companies. It was launched in 2008. iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has paid $0.18 per share over the trailing 12 months, which on its recent ~$18.37 share price works out to a 1.00% yield.
Which fund is the better buy?These two ETFs take a very different approach to investing in the energy business. The State Street fund, XLE, holds the biggest names in the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, providing exposure to producers and retailers like ExxonMobil and Chevron. About half the fund is in large-cap stocks.
ICLN, the iShares offering, is focused on renewable energy companies and so avoids fossil fuel producers altogether. It also is stylistically a more diverse ETF, holdings just less than half its assets in its top 10 holdings (XLE is close to three quarters in its top 10). About 23% of ICLN is in small cap stocks, 39% in mid caps, and the balance in large caps. Unlike XLE, which is all domestic U.S. oil and gas businesses, ICLN is also geographically more diverse, with about 40% of the fund in U.S. businesses, 29% in emerging Asian markets, and the balance in both developed markets and other emerging markets.
In some ways, deciding between these funds is a decision about whether you believe renewable energy will continue to grow in importance or if fossil fuels in the U.S. will continue to dominate. Solar and wind are now the cheapest and second-most-cheapest, respectively, way to produce electricity on a utility scale, easily cheaper than natural gas and other methods, according to the investment bank Lazard. But U.S. oil and gas stocks benefit from the rise in global prices from the Iran war, meaning they should be able to bring in more net income due to elevated prices at the gas pumps.
Performance-wise, ICLN beats XLE on the 10-year time frame, with annualized returns of 10.7% to 8.9% for XLE. ICLN however lost about 1% in the five-year look-back, reflecting the volatilityu to renewable energy, which is highly sensitive to hikes in interest rates and global tariffs. In the past three months, however, ICLN is up 13% whiole XLE has lost 13%.
The best choice here is ICLN, given the macro trend toward renewable energy resources. For investors who can wait out near-term volatility, it’s the fund to buy.
For more guidance on ETF investing, check out the full guide at this link.
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership raised its position in ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) by 46,105.6% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 2,310,281 shares of the energy producer's stock after buying an additional 2,305,281 shares during the period. Arrowstreet
In the latest trading session, ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) closed at $120.20, marking a +1.19% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.21%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.97%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 2.15%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the energy company had gained 11.1% outpaced the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 5.23% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.42%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of ConocoPhillips in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on August 6, 2026. In that report, analysts expect ConocoPhillips to post earnings of $2.96 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 108.45%. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $17.54 billion, reflecting a 18.98% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $9.2 per share and revenue of $66.91 billion. These totals would mark changes of +49.35% and +8.72%, respectively, from last year.
Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for ConocoPhillips. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 8.78% lower. As of now, ConocoPhillips holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).
From a valuation perspective, ConocoPhillips is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.91. This denotes a discount relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 19.19.
We can also see that COP currently has a PEG ratio of 1.43. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. As the market closed yesterday, the Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry was having an average PEG ratio of 1.96.
The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 205, putting it in the bottom 17% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
