Billions have fled Ethereum ETFs in weeks, dragging Coinbase stock down with them, and a delayed network upgrade is making things worse. A few specific catalysts could flip the trend, but investors are watching closely for the first sign.
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Investors have pulled about $1.1 billion from U.S. spot Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) ETFs over the last three weeks, and the selling hasn’t stopped. These funds directly hold ETH, so when investors withdraw, they often have to sell coins to meet demand.
This situation has also significantly impacted Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), which serves as the custodian for most U.S. spot crypto ETFs. On October 23, 2026, Coinbase shares closed at about $164, down 17% over the past month. So what could attract ETF buyers back into the market?
Ethereum ETF Outflows Slowed Each Week but Never Stopped
Ethereum spot ETFs have steadily lost funds, with net outflows of $542.1 million recorded from October 5 to 9, according to SoSoValue. Another $320 million followed in outflows from October 12 to 16.
The trend persisted with an additional $225 million leaving over just four trading days from October 19 to 22, including a striking $110.5 million on October 22 alone. The complete figures for October 23 are still pending.
Notably, one fund drove most of the withdrawals. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (NASDAQ: ETHA) saw approximately $1.01 billion exit during this timeframe, accounting for about 93% of the total outflows. Its net assets fell from roughly $9.9 billion on October 5 to around $7.8 billion on October 23—the day it recorded zero flows.
Between October 19 and October 22, ETHA’s withdrawals totaled about $233 million, surpassing the $225 million total outflow for all funds in the same period. This suggests that while money is moving out of ETHA, some investors are reallocating their funds to other Ether ETFs, keeping their investment within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Three Forces Are Pushing Investors Out of Ethereum ETFs
Yield competition is the first factor. Many investors are attracted to staking options, which involve locking up ETH to help secure the Ethereum network in exchange for rewards. Staking funds distribute this yield to their shareholders. BlackRock also manages the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (NASDAQ: ETHB), meaning traditional Ether funds now compete with income-focused options.
Falling prices are the second. ETH has dropped 11.5% in October, trading around $2,361 and is down 20% year-to-date. Falling prices can trigger ETF redemptions, creating a cycle of further selling pressure.
Development delays are the third. On October 22, Ethereum developers announced a delay in the Glamsterdam upgrade’s test on the Hoodi network, initially scheduled for October 26. The Ethereum Foundation said developers need more time to assess how a proposed change interacts with existing smart contracts. Without a new timeline, this is another setback for ETH holders seeking immediate catalysts.
Despite these outflows, the funds still hold $14.6 billion in net assets, compared to $12.7 billion in total net inflows. This discrepancy exists because ETH prices have risen since most of that investment was made, meaning early holders may still see profits despite recent downturns.
Coinbase Feels Every Dollar That Leaves Ethereum ETFs
Coinbase benefits from custody and ETH staking, so a decline in ETH demand affects its revenue streams. In its Q2 2026 earnings report released on July 30, Coinbase reported an 18.5% year-over-year revenue drop to $1.22 billion. Platform assets also fell from $294 billion to $246 billion, with executives citing ETF outflows as a contributing factor.
In discussions with analysts, Coinbase’s Alesia Haas stated, “When customers store with us, they transact with us.” This works both ways—fewer stored assets reduce trading revenue. Over the past week, Coinbase’s stock slipped 5%, while it’s down 27.3% year-to-date.
Large transactions have also drawn attention. Whale Alert reported transfers such as 38,236 ETH, valued at $91.7 million, moving into Coinbase Institutional and another 37,568 ETH, worth $90 million, going from Coinbase Institutional to regular Coinbase. While incoming coins could suggest selling intentions, many internal transfers are routine custody actions.
What Could Bring Ethereum ETF Buyers Back?
A reversal in ETH’s price trend is likely the first step in getting buyers back on board. Historically, ETF flows have closely followed price movements. Despite recent struggles, ETH is still up 21.6% over the last 90 days, so a price recovery could reignite momentum and interest among investors. More ETFs offering staking may also encourage yield-seeking holders to switch funds while keeping their investments in ETH.
Additionally, progress on the Glamsterdam upgrade could inspire renewed confidence if a new date is announced. Notably, weekly outflows have fallen sharply from $542.1 million to $320 million, then to $225 million, suggesting buyers may be poised to return. Should this trend turn into a week of net inflows while ETH stabilizes, Coinbase’s forthcoming quarterly report should reveal the true impact of the ETF selling trend.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Three Asian central banks just partnered with Ripple on a sweeping stablecoin initiative serving 111 million people, but XRP investors may not like what the fine print actually says about their token's role.
A massive crypto transfer from BlackRock's ETF wallets to Coinbase Prime set off alarm bells across crypto markets, but the real question is whether on-chain traders are misreading the signal entirely.
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Wallets tied to BlackRock’s (NYSE: BLK) spot ETFs moved 3,215 BTC, valued at $262.4 million, to Coinbase Prime, according to on-chain records from October 23, 2026. Coinbase Prime, Coinbase’s institutional trading desk (NASDAQ: COIN), also received another 38,882 ETH, worth $93.2 million, from those wallets. This brings the total transfer to about $355.6 million in just two hours.
The timing is concerning. On October 22, spot Bitcoin ETFs faced $635.6 million in net outflows, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dropped by 3.3% to $81,429. Crypto enthusiasts often interpret such large transfers to exchanges as a sign of significant selling ahead.
However, despite these transfers, Bitcoin trades at $81,858 as of October 23, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) remains nearly unchanged near $2,408. This raises the question: does this transfer signal a fresh wave of selling, or is it just a paper trail for sales that already occurred?
What BlackRock’s $262 Million Coinbase Transfer Reveals
An on-chain transfer represents the movement of coins between two wallets, publicly recorded on the blockchain. Analytics firms label these wallets to help readers identify where the coins came from and where they’re going. A common trading principle is that when coins flow onto an exchange, traders can sell them, which can read as bearish. Conversely, coins moving off exchanges suggest long-term holding.
Coinbase Prime acts as a prime broker, holding, trading, and settling assets for major institutions through a single account. Because Coinbase is BlackRock’s primary custody and trading partner for its crypto funds, BlackRock moves coins between Coinbase-run wallets as standard fund-management practice.
Interestingly, this transfer aligns closely with an outflow from one of BlackRock’s funds. The $262.4 million in Bitcoin moved corresponds to the $254.1 million that exited the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) on October 22, according to SoSoValue.
Why the Coinbase Prime Transfer Is Less Alarming Than It Looks
Most iShares Bitcoin Trust trades do not directly move Bitcoin. When an investor sells IBIT shares on the stock market, another investor buys them, and the fund’s coins remain intact. Coins transfer only when an Authorized Participant, such as a large bank or trading firm, redeems shares with the fund.
BlackRock’s iShares prospectus explains this clearly. In a redemption scenario, “an Authorized Participant deposits Creation Units with a Fund and receives from the Fund a redemption basket,” which can consist of assets or “a specified amount of cash.”
In a cash redemption, the fund sells Bitcoin to raise money through its prime broker, while in an in-kind redemption, the Authorized Participant receives the actual Bitcoin and may choose to hold, hedge, or sell them. In both instances, this recent transfer settles orders investors placed on October 22, already reflected in the published flow numbers. A trader interpreting the wallet movement as new selling could mistakenly count the same $254.1 million twice.
The Ethereum transfer follows the same logic, indicating redemptions from BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF, which is managed through the same account. Furthermore, the outflows are not solely attributable to BlackRock. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund witnessed $217.5 million in outflows, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF had $109.4 million, and Grayscale’s and Bitwise’s funds saw outflows of $29.5 million and $27.4 million, respectively. However, BlackRock’s movements drew more attention because of greater scrutiny.
What Could Change the Direction of Bitcoin’s ETF Flows
Bitcoin’s price is closely linked with ETF flows, and October 22 marked a break in buying momentum. The funds had previously attracted $1.08 billion over the three preceding sessions, so after October 22’s outflow, they still brought in a net $442.7 million from October 19 to 22.
IBIT’s activity fueled much of this, drawing in $665.2 million on October 19 and $235 million on October 21. Overall, total net inflows across all spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $57.32 billion as of October 22.
The funds have experienced other days of outflows this month that did not lead to a downward trend. On October 7, they posted $487.1 million in outflows, and on October 14, $261.5 million, but inflows followed both instances.
Bitcoin’s price has followed a similar pattern, down 0.3% over the past week, 3.7% over the month, and 7.2% year to date. Nevertheless, it remains up 26.3% over the past 90 days, suggesting buyers have maintained a rebound from summer lows. As of the morning of October 23, flow data had not yet been published, which could provide investors with clearer insights than any wallet alert.
Is More Bitcoin Selling Coming After BlackRock’s Transfer?
The transfer to Coinbase Prime appears to record transactions that have already occurred, closely matching the size of redemptions reported on October 22. This transfer alone does not suggest more sellers are queuing up, implying significant additional selling may not be on the horizon yet.
Two checks could change that view. Another outflow near October 22’s $635.6 million, or outflows that wipe out the $442.7 million net inflow from October 19 to 22, would point to wider selling. On price, a close below $81,429 would suggest buyers cannot absorb the redemptions, while a move above $84,378, its September 23 level, would show buyers back in control.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase now lets ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok place real trades in your crypto account, and the safeguards put most of the risk squarely on you. Here is what users and investors need to understand before connecting an AI to their…
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Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) recently announced that it now lets AI agents trade within customer accounts. On October 22, 2026, the company shared on X that “Coinbase is open for AI agents.” This new feature lets users connect AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and Muse to trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, and derivatives from a single conversation on its Everything Exchange.
Despite this exciting development, the market reaction was muted. COIN shares closed around $169, down 4.5% on October 22 after a 5% gain the previous day on news of new GENIUS Act regulations. Most of the decline occurred before the announcement near the end of the trading day. Shares were held at approximately $169 earlier.
Coinbase Users Can Start Using AI Agents Right Away
The new feature is live, and Coinbase lets users choose which portfolios the AI agent can access, preview orders before they execute, and disconnect the agent at any time.
The connection process utilizes Coinbase’s MCP server—short for model context protocol—a standard method for AI assistants to integrate with applications. For example, in ChatGPT, a user can add the URL agents.coinbase.com/mcp as a custom server, log in to Coinbase, and choose which portfolios the agent can access through an approval screen.
Coinbase has approved several AI assistants for this feature, including ChatGPT, Grok, Grok Bot, Muse, Perplexity Computer, Claude, Claude Code, and Codex CLI. A September 2026 update also added support for U.S. stocks and ETFs, as well as x402 payments, enabling agents to buy market data using a user’s USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC) balance. However, Coinbase has not provided specific details on fees, user counts, or revenue goals for this feature.
AI Agents Could Lift Coinbase’s Trading Fees, but Not Yet
In the short term, the impact on Coinbase’s bottom line appears minimal. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.22 billion, down 18.5% from the previous year, along with a GAAP loss of $1.36 per share. Revenue from consumer transactions—essentially the fees paid by retail traders—fell 20% to $452 million.
During the July 30 earnings call, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said agentic finance is still in its early stages and that the company doesn’t have specific forecasts to share. While increased trading by AI agents could raise consumer fees in the future, especially during a broader crypto rebound, Coinbase has not yet reported any revenue from these agents.
Coinbase’s Safeguards Still Leave Users With Most of the Risk
The biggest risk users face is misunderstanding the instructions. For instance, if a user requests “a little crypto,” the AI must interpret what “a little” means, leaving the user accountable for the trade. Another risk is prompt injection, where hidden text could mislead an agent into acting against the owner’s wishes. Additionally, rogue agent tools could compromise Coinbase logins, and overly broad permissions can exacerbate these vulnerabilities.
Coinbase advises users to create a separate portfolio for AI trading, fund it only with money they can afford to lose, and restrict the agent’s access to that account. This approach helps contain any potential losses. Unlike Telegram trading bots, Coinbase keeps funds in a regulated exchange account and offers order previews and an off switch for safety.
Furthermore, Armstrong has expressed confidence that agents will select reliable, safe, and compliant infrastructure, favoring Coinbase’s offerings. The platform reportedly handles more than 99% of stablecoin volume for agentic transactions on Base, its blockchain network, which reinforces its leading position.
Do Coinbase AI Agents Change Anything for COIN Holders? Currently, we believe the introduction of AI trading features won’t change much for COIN holders. While the new feature is beneficial and includes adequate safety measures, the market’s disinterest seems justified, especially since Coinbase hasn’t tied it to revenue. Users may mainly face risk from a bad trade or a compromised agent, but keeping a small, separate portfolio can limit losses.
The real cost for COIN shareholders may simply be the waiting game. Our perspective could shift if Coinbase’s Q3 2026 earnings report reveals meaningful data on agent trading volume or revenue. Until then, a rise back above $177—the October 21 closing price, about a 5% increase from current levels—could signal that investors are beginning to value this new feature.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase is rated Hold, reflecting strong liquidity, derivatives growth, and diversification, but lacks sustained operating profitability and faces cyclical crypto risks. Q3 earnings on October 29 are pivotal; I expect revenue of $1.12–$1.22B and underlying operating losses up to $75M, with a Q4 outlook critical for rating changes. COIN trades at high revenue multiples (8.8x FY26, 6.9x FY27), justified only if revenue rebounds; cost control and product margin evidence are needed for an upgrade.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 29, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -112.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $1.16 billion, down 38.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 40.92% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Coinbase Global?For Coinbase Global, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +86.23%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that Coinbase Global will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Coinbase Global would post earnings of $0.14 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.39, delivering a surprise of -378.57%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Coinbase Global appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAnother stock from the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, Houlihan Lokey (HLI - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $1.58 per share for the quarter ended September 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -14.1%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $609.92 million, down 7.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for Houlihan Lokey has been revised 0.6% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.89%.
This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggests that Houlihan Lokey will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) stock is trading around $170 after a 4.1% premarket drop on October 22, 2026. At this price, we believe the shares are fairly valued.
Coinbase shares have been cut nearly in half over the past year, yet one staggering market projection sits at the heart of the bull case and could justify a dramatic reversal if it plays out.
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Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) is $228.27 over the next 12 months. From the current price of $169.27, that means 34.86% upside. Our model rates the stock a buy with moderate confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $169.27 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $228.27 Upside/Downside 34.86% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% That target may look high for a stock with back-to-back GAAP losses. The bull case rests on one very big number: a stablecoin market that Coinbase expects to grow from $300B to $3T by 2030. Through USD Coin (CRYPTO:USDC) economics and its Base blockchain, Coinbase sits close to the center of that market.
A Steep One-Year Slide Meets Multi-Year-Low Volatility Shares fell 5.32% over the past week and 12.07% over the past month. They are down 24.47% year to date and 49.17% over one year, inside a 52-week range of $139.11 to $373.25.
Second-quarter revenue came in at $1.22B, down 18.5% year over year and short of the $1.29B consensus. EPS was -$1.36, missing the -$0.2278 estimate, as spot volume fell 25% from the prior quarter.
There were bright points, though. Trading market share reached an all-time high of 10.3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $207.8M was positive for the 14th consecutive quarter.
Why Bulls See $341 Ahead Our bull case reaches $341.59. Stablecoins do much of the work.
CEO Brian Armstrong said Base processed about “$32 trillion in the last 12 months of stablecoin transfer volume,” and average USDC held in Coinbase products hit $20B. Tokenized real-world assets, which Coinbase projects could grow to $16T by 2030, add a second path to growth.
Prediction markets topped $100M annualized, and Coinbase One “passed a million subscribers.” CFO Alesia Haas pointed out that subscriber growth happened “during a down market.” Among analysts, 4 rate the stock Strong Buy and 19 rate it Buy.
What Could Go Wrong for Coinbase Our bear case is $197.35, but a retest of the 52-week low is a real risk. Transaction revenue tracks volatility, and Q3 transaction revenue through July 26 was only about $130M. Rate cuts squeeze stablecoin income, and long-term debt has climbed to $7.2B.
One analyst rates the stock Sell and 1 rates it Strong Sell. There is a counterpoint: much of the Q1 loss came from $482.4M in losses on crypto held for investment, which were largely non-cash. Cash also stands at $8.61B.
Coinbase vs. Robinhood, Interactive Brokers and CME Group Company Forward P/E Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) Coinbase N/A -18.5% Robinhood 45x 32.3% Interactive Brokers 28x 13.5% CME Group 22x 0.8% Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) competes directly with Coinbase for retail crypto and stock investors. It is valued at $88.89B, compared with Coinbase’s $38.02B, which shows what the market pays for multi-asset growth.
Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) is a brokerage with steadier growth, and its 1.37 beta contrasts sharply with Coinbase’s.
CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) lists crypto futures, which makes it the benchmark for Coinbase’s derivatives ambitions through Deribit. CME earns a 63.4% profit margin. Next to these peers, our target looks reasonable if transaction revenue recovers.
BUY Rating Rests on Stablecoin Scale The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $228.27 carries a buy rating at 50% confidence. What tips the scale is subscription and services revenue, now 48% of net revenue.
I’d grow more constructive if crypto volatility comes back while USDC balances keep rising. I’d stay cautious if the next earnings report shows another quarter of shrinking transaction revenue. The stablecoin opportunity outweighs the cyclical risk overall.
Here is where our model projects Coinbase could trade if current growth trends and market conditions hold over the longer term.
Year Base Case Bull Case 2026 $179.50 $207.42 2027 $237.29 $333.50 2028 $285.68 $522.93 2029 $313.37 $687.60 2030 $394.06 $857.39 These projections hinge on Coinbase continuing to carry out its Everything Exchange strategy. Results could land well above or below these figures depending on stablecoin adoption, crypto volatility and the outcome of the Clarity Act.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Ethereum's staking yield has dropped sharply, yet record numbers of holders keep piling in, including one corporate giant that just locked up $391 million more. Before you stake, there are some uncomfortable comparisons worth making.
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Ethereum’s staking yield (CRYPTO:ETH) has dropped to 2.6%, according to Bitwise data. This raises a key question for anyone considering staking ETH: Is it still worth it? At this rate, staking $10,000 would earn about $260 a year in ETH before fees.
Despite the lower yield, more holders are entering staking. Bitwise reports a record 43.8 million ETH staked, which accounts for 36% of the total supply. Additionally, 1.16 million ETH is queued, waiting to enter the staking process.
Leading this queue is Bitmine (NYSE:BMNR | BMNR Price Prediction), the largest corporate holder of ETH. According to on-chain tracker Lookonchain, Bitmine recently staked an additional 159,728 ETH, valued at $391 million. This brings its total staked ETH to 5.23 million, or 87% of its holdings. So, when a company with billions at stake chooses to hand over nearly all its ETH to validators, should an average holder still consider staking at such a low yield?
Ethereum Staking Rewards Shrink to 2.6%
Many ETH holders know the routine. They park their ETH on an exchange and, with a click, put it to work. However, rewards have fallen significantly from the 4%-5% range, leaving many to wonder whether the lockup and associated fees still justify staking.
The declining yield is mainly because Ethereum’s new issuance is increasing more slowly than the total amount staked. Consequently, as more people stake, everyone’s share of the rewards gets diluted. One commenter on r/ethereum summed up the sentiment by calling staking “fine, as a yield boost” on top of whatever gains ETH’s price offers.
For an average holder with $10,000 in ETH priced at around $2,461 per token, a 2.6% yield translates to about $260 annually before fees. In contrast, 13-week Treasury bills, a government-backed alternative, averaged a 4.2% yield as of October 20, 2026. This means you must weigh the relatively small staking bonus against the risks of lockups, fees, penalties, and additional tax paperwork.
Price Volatility Can Erase Years of Staking Rewards
ETH price volatility influences this decision far more than the yield does. For instance, ETH surged about 3% in the last 24 hours, more than you’d earn in a full year of staking. However, losses can be just as dramatic. Over the past year, ETH’s price dropped about 37%, costing about $3,670 on a $10,000 investment.
In this scenario, it would take roughly 14 years of staking rewards to recover that loss. Bitmine faces the same reality on a larger scale. Its stock fell nearly 57% over the past year, even as it continued to accumulate ETH. This trend indicates that staking rewards alone cannot offset a declining asset.
Treasury bills offer higher returns without the price risk tied to ETH. A $10,000 investment in 13-week T-bills yields about $420 yearly—$160 more than staking—while the principal remains safe.
Tax implications also widen the gap. Under IRS guidelines, you pay taxes on staking rewards as ordinary income when they become available for sale, even if ETH’s value drops later. Conversely, T-bill interest is exempt from state income tax.
Every ETH Staking Method Takes a Cut Before Rewards Arrive
No matter the staking method, each route takes a portion of the rewards, so what the holder ultimately receives is less than the advertised yield.
Solo staking. This involves running your own validator with 32 ETH, priced around $78,764. While you retain the entire reward, you must manage uptime and face potential penalties if the validator breaks the rules.
Liquid staking. Services like Lido let you stake any amount and provide a token that reflects your staked ETH. However, Lido takes a share of the rewards, and holders take on smart-contract risks, especially if the token trades below ETH during market downturns.
Exchange staking. Platforms like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) let you stake with one click. However, they charge a commission and hold your coins, so any failure on their part becomes your risk.
Staking ETFs. These funds allow you to earn rewards in a standard brokerage account with simpler tax reporting. However, the fund also deducts its fees from the rewards.
Withdrawals can also take time. Each unstake request goes through a withdrawal queue, which can get long when many people leave at once, risking price declines during the wait. New stakers also face delays, as the 1.16 million ETH in the entry queue means they start earning rewards late.
Is Staking ETH Still Worth It?
Staking ETH may still be a good option for those planning to hold the asset for years, as it provides a modest return on coins that would otherwise sit idle. For those who intend to hold ETH anyway, the approximate $260 gained from staking is profit, minus fees and taxes. However, if you are pursuing yield, the $420 in T-bill interest is a better choice, without the risk of a 37% drop.
The key cost of staking is accessibility. If you’re forced to sell during a downturn and your ETH is tied up in a withdrawal queue, you could lose more in a week than staking would earn in years. Therefore, staking funds that you may need in the short term is often a costly mistake.
If staking demand keeps rising, yields could fall further, widening the gap between staking and Treasury yields—unless short-term Treasury rates fall first.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $170.75, moving +1.37% from the previous trading session. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.28%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 1.02%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.02%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the company had lost 16.22% lagged the Finance sector's loss of 2.55% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.67%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Coinbase Global, Inc. in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on October 29, 2026. On that day, Coinbase Global, Inc. is projected to report earnings of -$0.19 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 113.19%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $1.15 billion, indicating a 38.4% decrease compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of -$0.54 per share and revenue of $5.24 billion, indicating changes of -113.4% and -26.98%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Coinbase Global, Inc. should also be noted by investors. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 22.3% lower within the past month. Coinbase Global, Inc. is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 172, putting it in the bottom 31% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge Gains
Quantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.
While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.
Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA's enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be "the next big thing" in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.
Cathie Wood bought CoreWeave as its bonds fell into distressed territory and its credit risk gauge hit a record high. Whether that makes her a contrarian genius or a cautionary tale depends on one question the third-quarter report may finally…
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood bought into last week’s AI selloff. In Seoul on October 16, 2026, she said market fear is itself a sign that AI has room to run. “I’m talking about fear that AI, we’re in a hype cycle. We do not believe we are, but the fact people are afraid means we are not in a bubble,” Wood told Bloomberg, as reported by Briefs. She added: “While some people might say we’re in the first inning, we would say we’re still in the parking lot before we entered the baseball game.”
The stock that tests her view is CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Briefs reports that ARK added it, along with Cerebras Systems, while prices fell. Briefs also says CoreWeave shares dropped 20% over three sessions before bouncing. The stock is down 23.44% over the past week and 55.67% over the past year. Our October 16 coverage tracked ARK’s two straight days of CoreWeave buying.
Wood’s Bull Case Has Numbers Behind It CoreWeave posted second-quarter revenue of $2.575 billion, up 112.3% from a year earlier. Its contracted backlog stands near $104 billion, and customers added more than $25 billion of new commitments early in the third quarter. In July, management raised prices by about 25% across its chip products. CEO Michael Intrator said, “We expect demand to exceed supply for years meaningfully.” Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) upgraded the stock to Buy on Monday, according to Barron’s.
On the debt, Wood pointed to Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN): “Coinbase has evolved into a very strong, robust company and anyone who bought back then has been rewarded handsomely. This happens very often with young companies.” She also warned that today’s high memory chip prices are unlikely to last. That warning matters for any business buying hardware at today’s prices.
Why Lenders Are Pricing Real Default Risk Briefs reports that CoreWeave’s bonds fell into distressed territory and that its credit risk gauge hit a record. A bond is “distressed” when it trades far below face value. Buyers demand that steep discount because they doubt they will be repaid in full. The credit risk gauge is the price of credit default swaps, which work like insurance against a borrower missing payments. A record reading means protecting yourself against a CoreWeave default has never cost more.
The filings show why lenders are nervous. CoreWeave carried $51.608 billion in total debt at June 30, which includes $16.54 billion of lease obligations. Total liabilities totaled $72.046 billion, compared with shareholder equity of $5.024 billion. Second-quarter interest expense reached $640 million, up from $267 million a year earlier. That interest bill was larger than the $626 million net loss.
The company spent $6.42 billion on capital projects in the quarter, while operations brought in $679 million of cash. That left free cash flow at -$5.74 billion. New financing of $10.071 billion covered the gap. Management guided full-year capital spending to $35 to $39 billion, so CoreWeave has to keep borrowing at whatever rate lenders now ask.
The Coinbase comparison has a weak spot. Coinbase runs an exchange that needs little physical capital. CoreWeave has to build data centers before its contracts start paying. The chief executive of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) said CoreWeave’s financing costs are falling, Briefs reports. Briefs also names Nvidia as CoreWeave’s second-largest shareholder.
Verdict for Retirement-Minded Investors Wood may be right that AI demand is early. Even so, CoreWeave is a speculative, high-debt stock. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 8.94, its equity holders get paid after bondholders and landlords, and its market value is about $28.88 billion. You can profit from a mania, but only with an exit plan, which is exactly what our free bubble survivor’s handbook walks through. Conservative investors who share Wood’s view on AI can study lower-debt companies that would hold up if the expansion slows.
One trigger to watch: the third-quarter report. Management guided interest expense to $860 to $940 million and adjusted operating income to $200 to $260 million. If operating profit starts closing that gap, Wood’s case gets stronger. If the gap grows, the bond market’s warning deserves more weight than her optimism.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says quantum computing fears have Bitcoin holders spooked for the wrong reason, and the actual vulnerability hiding in plain sight has nothing to do with the technology itself.
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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and known for his bold views on cryptocurrencies, says that fears over quantum computing shouldn’t push people to sell Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). According to Hayes, the bigger Bitcoin quantum risk lies in a common practice among holders, reusing addresses. This means continuously receiving and spending coins from the same Bitcoin address.
His remarks come as Bitcoin trades at about $82,000 as of October 18, 2026, down 6.8% for the year and 23.4% over the past 12 months. As headlines about quantum computing surface, many anxious investors consider selling. But should these fears drive people away from Bitcoin, or just encourage a change in how they manage their wallets?
Reusing Bitcoin Addresses Exposes You to Quantum Attack Risks
Every Bitcoin address is linked to a unique key pair. The private key is the secret that allows the owner to spend the coins, while the public key is displayed on the blockchain to verify the owner’s transactions. Regular computers cannot reverse-engineer a private key from a public key, but a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could potentially achieve this.
Most modern Bitcoin addresses only display a hashed version of the public key, making it difficult for quantum computers to decode. The full public key appears on the blockchain when the owner makes their first transaction from that address.
If the owner stops using that address after spending, there’s no risk, as an empty address has no coins left to steal. However, if the owner keeps receiving coins at that address, those new coins rest behind an exposed public key and become a potential target for future quantum attacks.
Older address formats, along with the Taproot addresses introduced in 2021, reveal the public key right away. Research from Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) has highlighted around 20,000 addresses containing at least 50 BTC each that have exposed keys, and a September analysis counted about 6.9 million BTC behind those exposed keys.
Using a New Address for Each Payment Protects Your Public Key
The solution to this issue is simple. A new receiving address for every transaction keeps your public key hidden until you spend from it. Most modern wallets automatically generate a new address from the same backup seed phrase each time a user requests funds.
The Bitcoin Wiki notes that “the most private and secure way to use bitcoin is to send a brand new address to each person that pays you,” advising that addresses should not be reused once their coins are spent.
A few additional practices can enhance security. For those who have reused an address, transferring the balance to a brand-new address within the same wallet puts the coins back behind a hidden public key.
When withdrawing funds from exchanges, send each withdrawal to a newly generated address, as using a saved address removes this protection. For long-term savings, the safest option is to keep funds in a standard address that has received coins but never spent them.
Why Hayes’ View on Bitcoin Quantum Risk Holds Up
Quantum computers do not yet have the capability to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. Coinbase has suggested that preparing Bitcoin for post-quantum cryptography may take years, and its proposed roadmap does not require holders to take immediate action. This timing allows individual holders to address the risk they have direct control over, their wallet habits.
Buyers seem unfazed by the quantum concerns. Bitcoin rose 26.1% over the 60 days leading up to mid-October, even as warnings about quantum technology grew, suggesting major investors don’t see quantum computing as an immediate reason to sell.
The more significant hurdle lies with developers. Coins with already exposed keys, especially older coins that may remain unspent, cannot be secured by one person changing their address. A network-wide update would need consensus from developers, miners, and node operators, which could take considerable time.
Is Quantum Computing a Valid Reason to Sell Bitcoin?
We believe Hayes is correct. Instead of selling, the fear of quantum computing should motivate holders to tidy up their wallets, since using fresh addresses can prevent future attackers from accessing their public keys. Moving coins off a reused address takes a few minutes. Nevertheless, holders remain exposed to market risk, because fears about early, inactive coins with exposed keys could still affect Bitcoin’s price, even if their own holdings are secure.
Our perspective may shift if a lab successfully breaks a key based on Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve cryptography, or if developers set a firm deadline for implementing a post-quantum upgrade. Until then, address reuse appears to be the primary Bitcoin quantum risk for everyday holders, and it’s a risk they can address themselves.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways Coinbase shares have dropped 23.5% YTD, lagging the industry's 14.3% gain amid weak trading activity.COIN trades at 72.51X forward earnings versus the industry's 15.05X, signaling a stretched valuation.Coinbase's expansion into stablecoins, tokenized assets and global markets offers growth opportunities.
Shares of Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN - Free Report) have lost 23.5% year to date against the industry’s increase of 14.3%. The sector has risen 3.4% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite has gained 13.9% in the said time frame.
The downfall likely reflects a crypto market slowdown, declining trading volumes and weaker-than-expected earnings. Concerns about continued quarterly losses and falling transaction revenues also resulted in the drop.
Coinbase, a leading player in the crypto space, is well-positioned to gain from expanding its range of listed digital assets and tokenized equities, along with its international growth and strategic acquisitions. The company has been actively pursuing initiatives that support CEO Brian Armstrong’s vision of transforming Coinbase into an “everything exchange,” delivering a comprehensive suite of digital financial services.
COIN vs Industry, Sector, S&P 500 in 3 Months
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of crypto-oriented company, Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) , have lost 10.99%, while those of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR - Free Report) have gained 31% year to date.
Coinbase Shares Are ExpensiveCoinbase is trading at a premium to the Zacks Financial Transaction Service Market. Its 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 72.51X is much higher than the industry average of 15.05X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Its Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and indicates a stretched valuation at this moment.
Coinbase’s leading market position, diversification into higher-margin and recurring revenue streams—including USDC and stablecoin-related income, Data Vantage market data, subscriptions, and custody services—combined with improving regulatory clarity in the United States, likely support its premium valuation.
Coinbase is more expensive than Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers Group.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment for COINThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 is pegged at a loss of 50 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 62 cents expected 30 days ago. The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings has moved 4.8% north in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Consensus estimates for Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers Group’s 2026 and 2027 EPS have moved north in the past 30 days.
Growth Projections for COINThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues and EPS indicates a year-over-year decrease. However, the consensus estimate for 2027 revenues and EPS implies a year-over-year increase. Long-term earnings are expected to improve 10%.
The Case for CoinbaseCoinbase is pursuing its vision of becoming an “everything exchange,” offering 24/7 access to digital assets, equities, commodities and derivatives through a unified platform. Recent initiatives include launching regulated derivatives in Canada, expanding its Webull partnership to provide crypto trading and custody services, and partnering with Moov to deliver stablecoin payment and custody infrastructure to community banks and credit unions.
Prediction markets offer another growth avenue, broadening Coinbase’s addressable market and reducing reliance on traditional crypto trading. International expansion remains a priority, with operations across Australia, Brazil, India, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and the European Union, helping diversify its geographic revenue base.
The company is also expanding its product portfolio through additional cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets. Its selection of Chainlink as the oracle infrastructure for tokenized equities could support broader blockchain applications. Meanwhile, its partnership with Better Mortgage introduced a nationwide conforming mortgage product backed by crypto assets. In 2026, management plans to focus on real-world-asset perpetuals, specialized exchanges, advanced trading tools, decentralized finance infrastructure and opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.
Coinbase benefits from strong liquidity and relatively modest leverage, providing financial flexibility to pursue growth initiatives. However, its performance remains sensitive to cryptocurrency price fluctuations, elevated operating expenses, impairment charges and restructuring costs during market downturns. Although the company continues to gain market share, weaker industry conditions have constrained earnings growth. In the latest reported quarter, revenues declined as softer retail trading activity reduced transaction income, while lower cryptocurrency prices weighed on platform assets and overall profitability.
What Should Investors’ Stance Be?Coinbase aims to expand the crypto ecosystem, grow its spot trading market share among retail and institutional investors, and strengthen its platform. Higher USDC balances and market capitalization, along with relatively stable crypto prices, could drive more consistent revenues.
However, its premium valuation, subdued market volatility, weaker digital asset prices, near-term earnings and revenue pressures, and below-average return on equity pose significant risks. Therefore, investors should maintain a cautious stance toward the stock, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Amazon and JPMorgan are blocking AI agents that can already pay with crypto, but a small Boston company thinks a protocol built on a forgotten HTTP error code can change their minds.
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AI agents can already make online payments using stablecoins, crypto tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar. However, a significant issue remains on the receiving end. When a website receives a request from an agent, it can’t determine which user the agent represents or whether that user approved the expenditure.
In response, some of the biggest names in U.S. commerce have opted to shut out these agents. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has blocked a new shopping agent developed by Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), while JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has prohibited outside agents from accessing customer accounts. Meanwhile, Boston-based identity verification company Proof has introduced a protocol called x401 to reveal who an agent represents.
Crypto prices haven’t reacted to this move; XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.31 as of October 15, 2026, down 4.6% in the last 24 hours, similar to Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) 2.9% drop. Since agents can already manage transactions, what might motivate banks and major retailers to let them in?
Why Amazon and JPMorgan Are Blocking AI Agents
On September 8, Meta launched its personal AI agent, Muse, which can handle tasks such as booking travel, filling out forms, and shopping online. However, Amazon blocked Muse just two weeks later. Now, users encounter a warning indicating that access by an unauthorized AI agent violates Amazon’s terms of use.
Amazon claims Meta did not notify it of the integration, and Muse does not identify itself as an AI agent while browsing. Meta contends that Muse has no access to passwords or payment methods, and every transaction requires user approval. Nonetheless, these safeguards operate solely within Muse, leaving Amazon unable to verify who is actually making a purchase or if that individual has authorized the transaction.
Amazon previously won a preliminary injunction against another shopping assistant developed by Perplexity. However, the Ninth Circuit vacated that injunction on August 4, ruling that Amazon was unlikely to prove any breach of anti-hacking laws because the user accessed the site with the agent’s help. Despite this, the ruling still allows Amazon to regulate access under its terms of use, which is how Amazon is currently blocking Muse.
During JPMorgan’s earnings call on October 13, CEO Jamie Dimon stated the bank would not permit external agents to interact with customer accounts. “You don’t want rogue agents, and there could be thousands of them,” he expressed. He also highlighted concerns about a potential “liability transfer,” meaning customers could bear the costs of a faulty payment an agent makes. This restriction is more significant than Amazon’s because it prevents agents from accessing customer accounts for payments.
Shopify Is Letting AI Agents In as Bot Traffic Passes Humans
In contrast, some companies are embracing AI agents. Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) has integrated Meta as an AI commerce channel and is expanding the partnership so that Muse can process purchases through Shopify’s payment system.
The movement toward AI agents is gaining momentum, with Cloudflare reporting that bots accounted for 57% of web-page requests on its network in June, surpassing human traffic for the first time. HUMAN Security noted an astonishing 7,851% increase in AI agent traffic in 2025. However, consumer opinions remain mixed: a survey found that 51% of 1,000 U.S. consumers are uneasy with AI tools storing their card details.
How x402 Moves AI Agent Payments, and x401 Verifies Identity
The payment process already exists, built on HTTP, the protocol that facilitates communication between browsers and websites. Code 402, long reserved for “payment required,” is now being used through a standard called x402, allowing agents to pay for web resources with stablecoins.
Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) initiated the development of x402, which the Linux Foundation now oversees through the x402 Foundation, whose members include Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe. However, according to Circle, x402 addresses how payments are made but not who the agent is.
Proof, formerly Notarize, says it is the first company to implement verified identity and transaction approval for AI agents. Their x401 protocol builds on HTTP code 401—the standard response for “unauthorized”—enabling a website to query an agent about whom they represent and what has been approved.
To verify the person behind the agent, Proof matches their identity against a government-issued ID and then requires them to authorize the transaction by signing it with a fingerprint or facial scan. For example, a person could confirm an agent’s $25,000 wire transfer through this method, and any modifications the agent makes afterward would invalidate the signature.
Proof charges websites for each verification over the x402 system, and Superfluid, a crypto settlement firm, was the first to use the service in September. “Blocking agents is understandable, but it’s not sustainable,” said Pat Kinsel, Proof’s CEO. Proof’s announcement doesn’t specify any particular blockchain or stablecoin, suggesting a neutral stance toward any single token.
Do AI Agent Payments Give XRP Holders Anything? For now, agent identity gives XRP holders no direct reason to expect a higher price. Ripple says AI agents have made 13 million payments on the XRP Ledger using x402, about 25% of network activity. Those payments settle in stablecoins, though, so they measure ledger activity rather than demand for XRP.
If a major U.S. bank or retailer names an identity standard it would accept at Money20/20, which runs October 18 to 21, JPMorgan’s block could start to relax. Without one, the blocks will likely remain, and those 13 million payments will stay limited to sites that never check who the agent works for.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Prediction markets that offer the ability to make ultra-short-term bets on whether the price of cryptocurrencies will rise or fall are more popular than ever, and more players are crowding into the arena to get a slice of the bettors' money. On Oct. 6, Coinbase Global (COIN -4.90%) started offering prediction contracts regarding whether Bitcoin (BTC -2.37%), Ethereum (ETH -4.93%), and eight other major cryptocurrencies will rise or fall during 15-minute intervals. Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, is responsible for supplying the infrastructure for the contracts.
Financial Times reporting showed that five- to 15-minute contracts made up more than half of crypto betting on Kalshi and Polymarket as of March 2026. Here's what I predict will happen next.
Image source: Getty Images.
Fees are high, and success rates are low
I predict that most 15-minute market bettors will lose money, while the platforms will rake in plenty of fees. Once that process kicks off, I predict that financial regulators will then proceed to tighten the rules.
During any 15-minute interval, Bitcoin's price -- along with the prices of all the crypto majors -- exhibits a pattern of random fluctuation that results from a combination of factors. These include the order flow on exchanges, headlines, and an abundance of algorithmic trading.
Ordinary bettors, like day traders, have no edge over 15 minutes, while fast automated firms do. It's a foolhardy endeavor, but that won't stop people from futilely trying their luck. The platforms capture fees whether or not that luck delivers a return.
For instance, Kalshi's fee schedule charges the people accepting another person's posted price for a contract at a rate of 3.5% of the stake. So that means someone needs to be right more than half of the time just to break even -- and remember, being right even once is hard enough.
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Bettors also face faster opponents. In an Oct. 1 report, Galaxy Research found that, across all market types, 69% of 2.9 million Polymarket accounts that appear to be run by people finished the study period at a loss, losing $338.9 million of their hard-earned cash combined, while 125,429 automated accounts gained $246.8 million.
In many cases, the house plays the game too. Kalshi owns a market maker called Kalshi Trading, which takes the other sides of some of its customers' bets, Bloomberg reported in December 2025. A proposed class action filed in November 2025 alleges that it sets prices that disadvantage customers, which Kalshi denies.
Should investors use 15-minute markets, even as a hedge?
If you are a serious investor focused on building wealth over the long term, there are no conditions under which you need to be spending your money on prediction market contracts for the price action of cryptocurrency during any 15-minute period. It isn't useful as a hedge, nor as a way of trying to generate returns directly.
A hedge is a position that pays off if your main holding falls. If you hold a lot of Bitcoin or Ethereum and the price falls during the course of 15 minutes, waiting another 15 minutes may well erase all of the damage and more. Buying short-term prediction contracts as a hedge against that decline means ponying up the fees over and over again. It's also far too much hands-on time for investments that should fundamentally be left to cook on their own over the long term.
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The final part of my prediction, an increase in regulatory presence in prediction markets, is already happening.
On Sept. 25, a federal appeals court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate these contracts under their gambling laws, a ruling that splits from another appeals court and could draw Supreme Court review. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also proposed conflict-of-interest rules for exchanges and affiliated market makers in late July.
If the Supreme Court takes up these cases in the next few quarters and sides with the states trying to tamp down prediction markets, expect the 15-minute markets to shrink across much of the U.S. No matter what happens, don't try participating in those markets yourself.
A Look at Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) After 4.9% Decline -- GF Value $186.58 vs Price $172.89
On October 14, 2026, Coinbase Global Inc COIN shares fell 4.9% to $172.89, continuing a downward trend that has seen the stock decline significantly from its 52-week high of $373.25. The stock has also experienced a 52-week low of $139.11.
GF Value™ verdict: Current price of $172.89 is 7.3% below the GF Value™ estimate of $186.58. GF Score™ is 75/100, indicating above-average performance. Most notable signal: Insiders sold $329.3 million worth of stock over the past 12 months, with no buying activity. Is COIN Overvalued or Undervalued? The current price of Coinbase shares at $172.89 represents a 7.3% discount to the GF Value™ estimate of $186.58. While this might suggest a potential buying opportunity, it is crucial to consider the context surrounding this valuation. GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary estimate of intrinsic value based on a combination of historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. For loss-making companies like Coinbase, relying solely on GF Value™ can be misleading, as it does not account for the nuances of cash flow and profitability.
In the case of Coinbase, the current valuation appears to be underpinned by a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio that is significantly higher than its historical median of about 8.6x. This suggests that the market is pricing Coinbase more on its revenue than on its potential for profitability, which may not be sustainable given its current cash-flow-negative status. Investors should approach the GF Value™ estimate as a directional warning rather than a precise fair-value target, especially in light of the company's unprofitable nature.
How Does COIN's Valuation Compare to Its History? Metric Current Historical P/E (TTM) Not applicable (loss-making) 5-Year Median P/E: 34.7x Forward P/E 61.1x Not applicable As Coinbase is currently unprofitable, traditional earnings-based valuation metrics such as P/E are not applicable. The forward P/E of 61.1x indicates that the market expects significant future earnings growth, but this high valuation multiple raises questions about the sustainability of such expectations. This analysis suggests a divergence from the GF Value™ verdict, which remains fairly valued; however, the high forward P/E may hint at overvaluation risks in the absence of consistent profitability.
What Does COIN's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ evaluates a stock on multiple dimensions including financial health, profitability, growth potential, valuation, and momentum. With a GF Score™ of 75/100, Coinbase is positioned in the "above average" category, reflecting a mixture of strengths and weaknesses across these dimensions.
Metric Rating GF Score™ 75 Financial Strength 5/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 4/10 Valuation 7/10 Momentum 7/10 The strongest aspect of Coinbase's score lies in its profitability rank of 7/10, indicating some resilience in generating profits, despite being cash-flow negative. However, the growth rank of 4/10 raises concerns about its ability to expand reliably, especially in a volatile market. The financial strength score of 5/10 suggests moderate stability, which may be a contributing factor to the significant insider selling observed over the past year.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with COIN? Currently, 9 gurus hold shares of Coinbase, with 5 adding to their positions and 3 trimming them in recent quarters. This mixed activity among institutional investors indicates a cautious but somewhat optimistic sentiment towards the stock. Conversely, insider selling totaling $329.3 million over the past 12 months, with no recorded buying, raises concerns about the confidence of company executives in the stock's future performance.
The lack of insider buying, coupled with substantial selling, suggests that insiders may not view the current valuation as attractive, which could signal investors to tread carefully. This insider activity contrasts with the guru activity, providing a nuanced picture of market sentiment that investors should consider before making decisions.
What This Means for Investors Given the analysis, Coinbase Global Inc COIN appears to be fairly valued based on GF Value™, yet the high P/S ratio and mixed signals from insiders and gurus suggest caution. The company remains a speculative investment, especially considering its current cash-flow-negative status and the significant insider selling. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider the broader market conditions affecting cryptocurrency exchanges.
For further insights and detailed analysis, visit the Coinbase Global Inc COIN stock page for more information.
Frequently Asked Questions What is COIN's GF Score™?
COIN's GF Score™ is 75/100, indicating above-average performance based on various financial metrics.
Is COIN overvalued or undervalued?
According to GF Value™, COIN is fairly valued, though caution is warranted due to its unprofitability and high valuation multiples.
What is COIN's P/E ratio?
COIN currently has a forward P/E of 61.1x, while its 5-year median P/E stands at 34.7x, indicating a premium valuation despite its current losses.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures
I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
In the latest close session, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) was down 4.9% at $172.89. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.11%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.09%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.88%.
Shares of the company have appreciated by 5.62% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Finance sector's loss of 3.61%, and the S&P 500's gain of 2.06%.
The upcoming earnings release of Coinbase Global, Inc. will be of great interest to investors. The company is predicted to post an EPS of -$0.2, indicating a 113.89% decline compared to the equivalent quarter last year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $1.14 billion, reflecting a 38.75% fall from the equivalent quarter last year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of -$0.5 per share and revenue of $5.24 billion, which would represent changes of -112.41% and -27.03%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors should also take note of any recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Coinbase Global, Inc. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 105.17% lower. Coinbase Global, Inc. currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 172, positioning it in the bottom 31% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Remote-First-Company/CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Coinbase Global, Inc. (the “Company” or “Coinbase”) announced today that it will publish its third quarter 2026 financial results and related materials on its Investor Relations website at investor.coinbase.com on Thursday, October 29, 2026, after market close. The Company will hold a live question & answer session on X at 2:00 p.m. PT that same day. The event will also be live streamed on YouTube. Following the Q&A session, a replay and.
Coinbase just published a roadmap for protecting Bitcoin against quantum computers, and it admits the process could take years. That timeline raises an uncomfortable question about the millions of Bitcoin already sitting in vulnerable wallets right now.
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In a recent update from October 2026, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) shared that it could take years to make Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ready for post-quantum cryptography. This raises a critical question for Bitcoin holders: Is your Bitcoin safe from quantum computers in the meantime? Post-quantum cryptography refers to security measures designed to withstand future quantum computing threats.
Currently, a quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin’s cryptography has not been constructed. However, Coinbase is taking proactive measures because these upgrades require significant lead time. The company is advocating for flexible designs that can adapt as quantum-resistant techniques are developed. It’s important to note that Coinbase can only recommend changes; any actual updates to Bitcoin require consensus among developers, miners, and the users who run its software.
Bitcoin’s price response has been minimal, sitting around $83,382, about 34% below its all-time high of $126,080. So what does it mean that a solution is potentially years away for the security of the coins stored in your wallet?
Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Starts With Exposed Public Keys
Every Bitcoin address operates using a pair of keys: the private key, which is the secret code that allows the owner to spend their Bitcoin, and the public key, which is a code that the network uses to verify that transactions are legitimate. While regular computers find it impossible to derive a private key from a public key, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically achieve this, leading to potential vulnerabilities.
Most Bitcoin addresses initially display a scrambled version of the public key known as a hash, which quantum computers are not expected to easily reverse. However, the full public key becomes visible on the blockchain only after the coins at that address are spent, as it is needed to validate the transaction. Some address formats, particularly early Bitcoin addresses and those introduced with Taproot in 2021, show the public key right from the start.
Thus, the risk lies mainly with addresses that have already revealed their public keys. Research has identified approximately 20,000 Bitcoin addresses that hold at least 50 coins each, with public keys already exposed. Many of these are from Bitcoin’s early days.
The usage pattern of an address also impacts security. An address used once and then emptied reveals its public key, but it poses no theft risk since there are no coins left to steal. On the other hand, if an address continues to receive or spend coins after its first spend, it remains vulnerable, as it can be linked to a balance visible to anyone.
Coinbase Wants a Bitcoin Quantum Fix That Can Change Later
The primary design focus for Bitcoin’s future is flexibility. The cryptographic methods intended to replace Bitcoin’s current transaction signatures are still in the standardization process, and various techniques continue to be tested, refined, and occasionally discarded. Given that Bitcoin upgrades are slow, committing to a single method now could lead to choosing an ineffective option.
Coinbase’s roadmap reportedly mentions two proposed address designs that would allow for updates to the signature method without needing a complete overhaul of the entire system.
Additionally, the plan outlines a gradual approach to protecting existing wallets. Since some holders might not frequently check their coins and could even lose their private keys, an abrupt change for everyone could result in many being unable to access their funds. A phased implementation also gives the network time to thoroughly test each step.
Each solution presents its own challenges, particularly because Bitcoin intentionally limits its block space to control the amount of transaction data in new blocks. Post-quantum signatures are often larger than the current ones, which means fewer transactions could fit into each block, potentially increasing fees. The roadmap indicates that any new solutions must function within these limitations.
Another essential requirement is that regular users must still be able to verify transactions on the blockchain independently. A full node is a device running Bitcoin’s software that checks all transactions against the network’s regulations, so users shouldn’t have to rely on third parties for trust. If a quantum solution burdens blocks with excessive data, it could force smaller operators out of the node-running community, leading Bitcoin away from its decentralized roots.
Coinbase’s Quantum Roadmap Leaves the Hard Choices Open
The roadmap released by Coinbase does not set deadlines, select a final signature method, or obligate any developers, miners, or holders to specific actions. Coinbase also manages Bitcoin on behalf of its customers, including several U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which gives it a vested interest in ensuring a smooth transition. As a result, its priorities reflect the perspective of a significant player in the field.
While a credible roadmap could enhance Coinbase’s reputation as a custodian, the actual price of Bitcoin remains largely unaffected by plans that have yet to be transformed into actionable code, which explains the subdued market reaction.
Is Your Bitcoin Safe From Quantum Computers Until a Solution Is Found?
For now, yes. There is no existing machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography. Coinbase’s roadmap doesn’t ask holders to do anything yet, allowing Bitcoin holders to breathe a little easier for the moment.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Evernorth shareholders watched hundreds of millions in XRP value evaporate before a single share ever changed hands on Nasdaq. Now that the stock is trading, the price buyers are willing to pay reveals something surprising about what this treasury is…
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Evernorth Holdings (NASDAQ: XRPN) lost about $443 million in treasury value between signing its merger deal and listing on Nasdaq, mainly because its roughly 473 million XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) declined in value. The company also maintains about $300 million in cash reserves. Unfortunately, investors in this deal could not avoid the effects of this loss, as the company held onto the coins throughout the entire period.
Evernorth finalized its merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II on October 9, 2026. Armada was a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) that initially lists on an exchange and later merges with a private company to take it public. Evernorth XRPN began trading on October 12, when the stock closed at $16.91.
On October 13, shares rose by 0.8% to $17.05 in premarket trading before the regular session opened. Meanwhile, XRP traded at $1.36, reflecting an 8% decline during the listing week. In light of this loss, what price did initial buyers attach to the remaining assets?
What Each Evernorth XRPN Share Is Worth
An Evernorth share represents a claim on a combination of XRP and cash. With XRP priced at $1.36 per coin, the company’s 473 million XRP is worth about $643 million. Adding the $300 million in cash to the balance sheet makes the total value clearer. As of now, Evernorth remains categorized as a shell company, and it has yet to file an earnings report, leaving investors without operating revenue to assess.
The company’s overall value hinges on XRP’s trading price and how effectively management oversees the treasury. Evernorth named Hugo Jeandesboz, a former co-chief investment officer at Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) Asset Management, as its chief investment officer. His experience from one of the largest cryptocurrency firms in the U.S. could play a vital role.
Thus, the net asset value (NAV) is the critical figure to consider. NAV reflects what the pool of assets is worth after accounting for any liabilities the company may have. Unlike most stocks, which require investors to speculate on future earnings, a treasury company like Evernorth allows for a near-precise valuation because XRP has a real-time price around the clock, and cash retains its dollar value.
The merger did not create any new applications for XRP. Evernorth’s announcements focused on shareholder approval on October 1 and the merger’s completion, without mentioning any bank, payment company, or settlement partner committed to using XRP. Without such partnerships, the treasury remains static and can add new buy orders only if Evernorth secures additional funding.
How Buyers Priced XRPN in Its First Nasdaq Trades
XRPN’s first closing price was $16.91 on October 12, and it rose modestly to $17.05 during premarket trading on October 13. This gain happened during a week when XRP dropped by 8%, trading between a low of $1.31 and a high of $1.41. However, the two-day trading period isn’t enough to determine how closely the stock correlates with XRP’s price.
The debut leaves the question of premium pricing unresolved. A premium means the stock trades above the net value of the assets behind each share, while a discount means it trades that value below. Since Evernorth has not yet published a complete share count, calculating the exact premium or discount remains challenging. Nonetheless, buyers determined their purchase price after the drop was already known.
Why XRPN May Cost More Than Buying XRP Directly
Investors seeking exposure to XRP generally have three options, each with its own costs.
Buying XRP Directly: This option lets investors own the coin outright, with no intermediary. However, it requires individuals to handle custody by either storing their coins on an exchange or in a personally controlled wallet. Investing in an XRP Fund: This route provides exposure through a standard brokerage account but typically incurs an annual fee, measured in basis points (one basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point). Going Through a Treasury Company like Evernorth: This option incorporates management decisions and associated operating costs. The company may also issue more shares, which could dilute value for existing investors. Nevertheless, this structure allows institutions that cannot directly hold coins to gain access via a Nasdaq stock. Historically, treasury stocks in this sector have usually traded at a discount, meaning that most public crypto treasury companies offer shares below the value of their actual holdings. This trend suggests investors generally pay less than a dollar for each dollar of assets held. Therefore, anyone expecting XRPN to trade at a premium is diverging from the norm, since additional costs and the risk of new share issuance typically explain why investors expect a discount.
Will Evernorth’s Nasdaq Listing Lift XRP’s Price? Unfortunately, the listing itself shows little promise for boosting XRP’s price. XRPN’s value is primarily tied to XRP’s price, along with management costs and the risk of additional shares. The listing creates no new demand for XRP, as Evernorth completed its asset purchase before its initial trade. Ultimately, while Evernorth gains access to the Nasdaq, the potential benefits for XRP appear limited.
That answer could change if Evernorth sold new shares to buy more XRP, and a reported XRP count above 473 million would show that buying has started.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this company have returned -5.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% change. During this period, the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which Coinbase Global falls in, has lost 4.5%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Coinbase Global is expected to post a loss of $0.20 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -113.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -69.4%.
The consensus earnings estimate of -$0.5 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -112.4%. This estimate has changed -105.2% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.06 indicates a change of +711.9% from what Coinbase Global is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +4.8%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Coinbase Global is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Coinbase Global, the consensus sales estimate of $1.15 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -38.6%. The $5.24 billion and $6.59 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -27% and +25.7%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryCoinbase Global reported revenues of $1.22 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -18.5%. EPS of -$0.39 for the same period compares with $0.12 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.3 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -5.81%. The EPS surprise was -378.57%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Coinbase Global is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Coinbase Global. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong still expects Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030. His forecast relies on Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle repeating itself.
Using your Bitcoin as loan collateral sounds like a way to get cash without giving up your coins, but a price drop can trigger a chain of forced sales and unexpected tax bills that leaves you worse off than if…
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Yes, you can borrow against your Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) without selling it. Companies like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction), Ledn, Arch, and Nexo allow you to use your Bitcoin as collateral for a loan. However, if Bitcoin’s price falls significantly, lenders can sell your coins to recover their funds.
According to Himanshu Sahay, co-founder and chief revenue officer at Arch Lending, retail borrowers can secure loans for up to 60% of their Bitcoin’s value, with interest rates starting at 7.25% per year. If you take out a loan at this level, Bitcoin could drop about 25% before Arch steps in and sells any of your collateral.
In the current market, this safety buffer is thinner than it seems. As of October 9, Bitcoin is trading around $82,581, down 4% over the past week and 32% since last year, about 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. So, how secure is a loan backed by an asset that has lost a third of its value over the past year?
How a Bitcoin Loan Turns Price Drops Into Margin Calls
When you borrow against Bitcoin, you use the coins as collateral. You receive cash, while the lender holds the Bitcoin. When you repay the loan, you get your coins back.
Loan-to-Value (LTV) is an important metric that compares the size of your loan to the current value of your Bitcoin. If Bitcoin’s price drops, your LTV increases, even if you don’t borrow more money. For example, if you take out a $60,000 loan against $100,000 worth of Bitcoin, your initial LTV is 60%. If Bitcoin’s price falls by 25%, your LTV jumps to 80%.
At Arch, Sahay said a margin call occurs at 70% LTV, and partial liquidation starts at 80% LTV. A margin call is a lender request for additional Bitcoin or a partial loan repayment. If you opened a loan at 60% LTV, you would receive a margin call after a 14% price drop. If the LTV reaches 80%, Arch sells only enough Bitcoin to bring it back to a healthy level, letting you keep the loan intact.
You should also consider the tax implications. While borrowing against Bitcoin is generally not taxable, a forced liquidation counts as a sale for tax purposes, which could trigger a tax bill on top of your losses.
Bitcoin Lenders Have Lost Borrowers’ Coins Before
Lenders like Celsius and BlockFi have faced significant issues after mishandling customer assets. This practice, known as rehypothecation, involves lending out a borrower’s coins to others, which can put customer funds at risk if those trades go wrong.
Sahay reassured that Arch maintains its collateral in qualified custody at Anchorage Digital and never rehypothecates it. This means a regulated third party holds the assets, following standards the SEC is currently considering in its custody proposal for advisers. However, custody practices can differ across the lending industry.
How Bitcoin’s 54% Drop Would Have Hit a 60% Loan
Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings. For instance, it dropped approximately 54%, falling from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 to $57,717 by June 30, 2026. Although Bitcoin has since bounced back above $80,000 due to ETF demand, a loan opened at Arch’s 60% limit near the top would have hit the 80% liquidation threshold about halfway through this decline. Each partial sale of collateral would also have been considered a taxable event.
Despite these risks, Sahay said Arch has continued to grow its lending business. “Our book grew through the drawdown,” he said, noting that most existing clients remained, and Arch has issued over $750 million in loans. This shows strong demand for Bitcoin loans, but it doesn’t reduce the risk of rapid liquidation at the maximum allowable limit.
Is Borrowing Against Bitcoin Right for You? Borrowing against Bitcoin may work well for certain individuals. It can be a good option for those who plan to hold their coins through a market downturn, need cash for specific purposes, and have extra Bitcoin or cash on hand to cover a margin call if needed. However, it’s not advisable if you rely on the lender never having to sell your Bitcoin, especially given Bitcoin’s steep declines in past cycles.
A smaller loan gives you more room for price fluctuations. For example, a loan at 40% LTV instead of 60% can withstand a 50% price drop before hitting the 80% liquidation threshold, while a loan at the 60% maximum offers only a 25% buffer. If Bitcoin experiences another significant downturn like it has in the past, a loan at the higher end of the range could lead to liquidation and a possible tax bill on top of that.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways COIN will bring USDC to U.S. Samsung Wallet users in late October 2026, with Coinbase Prime.Average USDC balances in Coinbase products hit a record $20 billion in Q2 2026, up 44% year over year.Wider USDC adoption could boost COIN's custody and payments business, but earnings rely on sustained usage. Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) is expanding its stablecoin distribution through a partnership with Samsung, bringing USD Coin (USDC) to Samsung Wallet users in the United States. The service is expected to launch in the last week of October 2026, with USDC as the default dollar stablecoin. Coinbase will provide subcustody through Coinbase Prime, alongside licensed infrastructure partner Bastion.
Samsung’s broad consumer reach could help Coinbase introduce USDC to users beyond its existing crypto customer base. Integrating stablecoins into a familiar digital wallet could encourage adoption for payments and cross-border transfers, strengthening Coinbase’s position in the digital payments ecosystem.
The opportunity is supported by rising adoption. In the second quarter of 2026, average USDC balances held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion, up 44% year over year. More than 30% of circulating USDC was held in Coinbase products at quarter-end.
Wider adoption could create opportunities across custody, payments and other stablecoin-related services. It may also support activity on Base, Coinbase’s Layer-2 blockchain network, if users transact through services connected to the network.
However, greater adoption will not automatically translate into higher earnings. The financial impact will depend on customer activity, transaction volumes, operating costs and revenue-sharing arrangements. If the partnership generates sustained usage, it could broaden Coinbase’s distribution and support revenue diversification beyond trading fees.
What Are Competitors Doing?PayPal Holdings (PYPL - Free Report) is broadening the reach of its PYUSD stablecoin through its established consumer and merchant network. Wider availability could support cross-border transfers and digital payments, helping PayPal connect traditional payment services with blockchain-based transactions.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL - Free Report) is expanding USDC adoption through partnerships that integrate stablecoin payments into existing business systems. On Oct. 7, 2026, Circle announced a partnership with Tereina to integrate USDC and EURC into enterprise workflows, starting with the SAP ecosystem. Wider USDC integration across consumer wallets, including Samsung Wallet, could increase stablecoin adoption and strengthen demand for Circle’s ecosystem.
COIN’s Price PerformanceShares of COIN have lost 55.5% in the past year compared with the industry decline of 27.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COIN’s ValuationCOIN trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 74.44, significantly above the industry average of 15.11.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimate Movement for COINThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s 2026 and 2027 earnings per share (EPS) witnessed upward movement in the last 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for COIN’s 2026 revenues and earnings indicates a year-over-year decrease. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for 2027 revenues and earnings implies a year-over-year increase.
COIN stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Circle Internet just placed a bet on tokenized stock trading by backing crypto exchange OKX, and the ripple across crypto equities reveals which business models investors trust most when the sector heats up.
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Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL | CRCL Price Prediction) stock rose 7% to $86.39 after the stablecoin issuer joined a funding round that values cryptocurrency exchange OKX at $25 billion. Crypto-linked equities are rallying alongside it, and the gains in the operating companies are running far ahead of the asset they handle. That spread shows where the buying is focused, with infrastructure names leading and the asset fund lagging.
Meanwhile, Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) stock is up 6% to $181.91, a gain just behind the advance in Circle Internet stock. Additionally, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock is up 3% to $156.40, the lowest advance of the three operating companies yet still well ahead of the benchmark funds.
Measured against two benchmark funds, the crypto equities are running well ahead of both. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) is up 1%, a fraction of the gains posted by all three stocks. The wider market is stronger too, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) up 0.5%.
OKX Round Pulls Circle Internet Toward Tokenized Trading Circle Internet joined the latest OKX funding round as a major investor, alongside Ripple and Standard Chartered. OKX is seeking regulatory clearance to trade tokenized stocks, so the investment places Circle Internet closer to a venue where conventional equities and blockchain settlement would meet.
The roster pairs a crypto-native stronger with a global bank, a mix that reflects how closely the two worlds now overlap in tokenization.
Three Business Models Behind One Rally Circle Internet issues USDC (CRYPTO:USDC), a stablecoin backed by reserves and intended to hold a fixed dollar value. Its income comes primarily from the yield on those reserves. The company gains when the amount of USDC in circulation grows and when interest rates stay high. Cryptocurrency prices play a secondary role in that model, which sets Circle Internet apart from the other two names in the rally.
Coinbase runs an exchange and earns on transactions, so its business gains with trading volume. Strategy makes holding cryptocurrency on its balance sheet the center of its business, which ties it to the asset price more directly than either Circle Internet or Coinbase. Those differences mean each stock answers to a separate set of forces, even when all three rise together.
Circle Internet’s upside argument is that buying into exchange infrastructure turns a single-product issuer into a company with a stake in where tokenized trading settles, a far larger market than stablecoins alone. However, the bear case points out that this is a minority investment in a private company whose central ambition still depends on a regulator’s decision.
What to Watch Next OKX’s push for clearance to trade tokenized stocks is the open question hanging over the investment. A decision on that clearance is worth monitoring, since much of the strategic value of Circle Internet’s stake rests on it. Approval could strengthen the infrastructure case, while a delay could leave the stake looking like a passive holding.
Whether the operating companies keep outpacing the iShares IBIT fund may indicate how durable the infrastructure thesis is. A narrowing gap could signal that enthusiasm for the operators is fading back toward the asset itself. Given the volatility in this fast-moving sector, Circle Internet stock position sizes should stay measured.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
A Look at Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) After 3.9% Decline -- GF Value $185.27 vs Price $178.45 On October 07, 2026, Coinbase Global Inc COIN shares experienced a decline of 3.9%, currently priced at $178.45. The stock has traded within a range of $139.11 to $402.16 over the past 52 weeks.
GF Value™ verdict: Current price is $178.45, compared to GF Value of $185.27, indicating a 3.7% undervaluation.GF Score™: 78/100 (Above Average), suggesting solid overall performance.Most notable signal: Insiders sold $338.3M worth of stock over the past 12 months, with no buying activity.Is COIN Overvalued or Undervalued?The current price of Coinbase Global Inc COIN at $178.45 is marginally below the GF Value™ estimate of $185.27, resulting in a 3.7% margin of safety. GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary intrinsic-value estimate, derived from a combination of historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. The GF Valuation label currently indicates that COIN is fairly valued, but given the company's ongoing losses and cash flow negativity, this valuation metric may not provide a precise picture of its current worth.
As COIN struggles to achieve profitability, relying on earnings-based metrics like the P/E ratio can be misleading and less applicable in this scenario. Investors should approach the GF Value™ verdict with caution, as it serves more as a directional indicator rather than a definitive fair-value target for a company that has yet to demonstrate sustainable earnings.
How Does COIN's Valuation Compare to Its History?MetricCurrentHistoricalP/E (TTM)N/A34.4xForward P/E63.6xN/ASince the current P/E (TTM) is not available due to the company's lack of profitability, we rely on the forward P/E of 63.6x to gauge valuation. Compared to its 5-year median P/E of 34.4x, COIN is trading significantly above its historical valuation. This high forward P/E suggests that the market may be pricing in an optimistic outlook, which contrasts with the GF Value™ assessment of fair valuation, indicating potential overvaluation based on future earnings expectations.
What Does COIN's GF Score™ Tell Us?GF Score™ measures a stock's overall performance based on various factors including financial strength, profitability, growth, valuation, and momentum. Coinbase's GF Score™ of 78/100 reflects an above-average performance, with notable strengths and weaknesses among its sub-ranks.
MetricRatingGF Score™78Financial Strength5/10Profitability7/10Growth5/10Valuation7/10Momentum7/10The analysis of COIN's GF Score™ reveals that while the company shows decent profitability and valuation metrics, it falls short in financial strength and growth. The stronger rankings in profitability, valuation, and momentum suggest that the company is maintaining some operational efficiency and market interest but may face challenges in terms of financial stability and growth potential moving forward.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with COIN?Currently, 9 gurus hold shares of Coinbase Global Inc, with 5 increasing their positions while 3 have trimmed their stakes in recent quarters. This mixed activity indicates a cautious sentiment among institutional investors, as they seem to be balancing their exposure to the stock.
In contrast, insider activity paints a less favorable picture, with insiders having sold $338.3M worth of shares over the past year, with no recorded buying. This significant selling activity may signal a lack of confidence in the company’s future prospects or a desire among insiders to liquidate their holdings, which could be a red flag for potential investors.
What This Means for InvestorsConsidering the analysis above, Coinbase Global Inc COIN appears to be fairly valued based on the GF Value™ indication of a 3.7% undervaluation relative to its current price. However, the challenges of being a cash-flow-negative company and the mixed signals from insider trading and guru activity suggest caution. Investors may want to keep an eye on the company's profitability trajectory and market conditions moving forward. For more detailed insights and updates, visit the Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) stock page.
Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is COIN's GF Score™?
COIN's GF Score™ is 78/100, indicating an above-average performance relative to its peers, suggesting a mix of strengths and weaknesses in various financial metrics.
Is COIN overvalued or undervalued?
COIN is currently regarded as fairly valued with a GF Value™ estimate indicating a 3.7% undervaluation compared to its current price.
What is COIN's P/E ratio?
COIN does not have a traditional P/E ratio due to its ongoing losses, but its forward P/E stands at 63.6x, which is significantly higher than its historical median of 34.4x.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
Key Takeaways COIN held a record $20B in average USDC in Q2 2026, up 44% year over year, with over 30% of circulation.USDC can support recurring revenues tied to reserve economics as circulation and platform balances increase.Rising USDC use in payments, custody, lending and Base could reduce reliance on volatile transaction revenues. Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) is increasingly being valued as more than a crypto trading platform, with USDC emerging as a potentially important long-term growth engine. Unlike transaction revenues, which are highly sensitive to crypto trading volumes, USDC can generate a more recurring revenue stream tied to broader adoption of blockchain-based payments and digital-dollar usage.
Stablecoins remain central to Coinbase’s revenue mix and payments strategy. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 44% year over year, while more than 30% of circulating USDC was held in Coinbase products at quarter-end. As Coinbase participates in the economics of USDC reserves, rising circulation and higher balances across its platform can support continued revenue growth.
USDC is also evolving beyond a trading asset into broader financial infrastructure. Growing adoption by businesses, institutions and consumers for payments, settlement and value transfers could expand Coinbase’s monetization opportunities across custody, payments, trading, lending and onchain applications. Rising stablecoin activity on Base, Coinbase’s Layer-2 network, further strengthens this opportunity.
Increased stablecoin adoption can deepen Coinbase’s ecosystem and generate activity across multiple products, helping reduce its historical reliance on volatile transaction revenues. If stablecoins become a mainstream settlement layer, Coinbase’s distribution, custody and Base infrastructure could position USDC as a core pillar of long-term growth and subscription and services revenues.
What About COIN’s Peers?Stablecoins, especially USDC, are also fundamental to Circle Internet Group’s (CRCL - Free Report) business strategy. As USDC’s issuer, Circle earns revenues through interest on reserves and transaction flows. Stablecoins also support Circle’s expansion into payments, DeFi and global finance, reinforcing its role as a core infrastructure provider in the digital asset ecosystem.
Stablecoins play a growing role in BlackRock Inc.’s (BLK - Free Report) digital strategy. Through its partnership with Circle, it manages USDC reserves, gaining direct exposure to stablecoin infrastructure. This supports BlackRock’s broader push to modernize finance by leveraging blockchain technology for tokenized assets, real-time settlements and more efficient capital markets.
COIN’s Price PerformanceShares of COIN have lost 21.2% in the year-to-date period, underperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COIN’s Expensive ValuationCOIN trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 81.08, significantly above the industry average of 15.45.
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Estimate Movement for COINThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) witnessed northbound movement in the last 30 days. The same holds true for 2026 and 2027.
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by equities research analysts at BTIG Research in a research report issued on Wednesday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. They presently have a $240.00 price target on the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock. BTIG Research’s target price indicates a potential upside of 33.49% from the company’s current price.
Other research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. KeyCorp restated a “sector weight” rating on shares of Coinbase Global in a report on Wednesday, June 17th. Sanford C. Bernstein restated an “outperform” rating and set a $330.00 price target on shares of Coinbase Global in a report on Friday, July 31st. Rosenblatt Securities restated a “buy” rating and set a $240.00 price target on shares of Coinbase Global in a report on Tuesday, July 28th. Needham & Company LLC cut their price target on shares of Coinbase Global from $220.00 to $177.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, July 31st. Finally, Wolfe Research set a $325.00 target price on shares of Coinbase Global in a research note on Thursday, July 9th. Twenty analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Hold rating and three have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $225.44.
Get Our Latest Research Report on Coinbase Global
Coinbase Global Stock Down 3.2% COIN stock traded down $5.96 during midday trading on Wednesday, reaching $179.78. The company had a trading volume of 3,023,959 shares, compared to its average volume of 10,175,047. The company has a market capitalization of $47.43 billion, a P/E ratio of -46.80 and a beta of 3.41. The company has a 50 day moving average of $174.13 and a two-hundred day moving average of $175.48. The company has a current ratio of 2.42, a quick ratio of 2.42 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. Coinbase Global has a 1 year low of $139.11 and a 1 year high of $402.16. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, July 30th. The cryptocurrency exchange reported ($1.36) earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.44) by ($0.92). The business had revenue of $1.22 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.29 billion. Coinbase Global had a negative net margin of 15.72% and a positive return on equity of 3.12%. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was down 18.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted $5.14 EPS. On average, equities research analysts expect that Coinbase Global will post -0.48 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Insider Activity at Coinbase Global In other Coinbase Global news, CFO Alesia Haas sold 39,030 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Monday, September 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $205.24, for a total value of $8,010,517.20. Following the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 345,376 shares in the company, valued at $70,884,970.24. This trade represents a 10.15% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CAO Jennifer Jones sold 2,062 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Monday, August 24th. The stock was sold at an average price of $188.75, for a total transaction of $389,202.50. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold 127,188 shares of company stock valued at $23,029,558. Company insiders own 16.66% of the company’s stock.
Institutional Trading of Coinbase Global Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the stock. Readystate Asset Management LP bought a new position in Coinbase Global during the 2nd quarter valued at about $2,587,000. Nykredit A S bought a new position in shares of Coinbase Global in the second quarter worth about $12,395,000. Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC raised its stake in shares of Coinbase Global by 185.5% in the second quarter. Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC now owns 25,507 shares of the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock worth $3,729,000 after acquiring an additional 16,572 shares during the last quarter. First Citizens Bank & Trust Co. raised its stake in shares of Coinbase Global by 37.4% in the first quarter. First Citizens Bank & Trust Co. now owns 40,467 shares of the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock worth $7,066,000 after acquiring an additional 11,020 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Assenagon Asset Management S.A. raised its stake in shares of Coinbase Global by 366.7% in the second quarter. Assenagon Asset Management S.A. now owns 154,702 shares of the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock worth $22,616,000 after acquiring an additional 121,552 shares during the last quarter. 68.84% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Key Headlines Impacting Coinbase Global Here are the key news stories impacting Coinbase Global this week:
Positive Sentiment: Coinbase Pro relaunch and Deribit integration: Coinbase completed its Deribit integration and plans to revive the Coinbase Pro brand by year-end. The combined exchange is expected to offer spot trading, futures, perpetuals, options, spot margin and unified portfolios, potentially expanding trading activity and derivatives revenue. Coinbase Deribit integration article Positive Sentiment: Analyst support: BTIG reaffirmed a Buy rating and set a $240 price target, implying substantial upside from recent trading levels. BTIG and Coinbase outlook article Positive Sentiment: Institutional demand and regulation: Coinbase Institutional co-CEO Liz Martin said demand for crypto assets and tokenization continues to rise as regulatory clarity and transparency improve. Separately, a Coinbase executive said CFTC approval could accelerate regulated products and institutional access. Coinbase institutional demand article Neutral Sentiment: Government crypto transfers: U.S. government-linked wallets transferred approximately $71 million of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, while the U.S. Marshals moved another $23 million tied to the Bitfinex hack case. The transactions may involve custody or restitution and do not confirm imminent sales. Government crypto transfers article Negative Sentiment: Crypto-market weakness: Coinbase’s high sensitivity to cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes makes the decline in Bitcoin and other digital assets the most immediate pressure on investor sentiment. Crypto market weakness article Negative Sentiment: Insider selling and earnings concerns: Director Marc Andreessen sold shares through a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan. Coinbase has also recently missed earnings expectations, adding to concerns about near-term profitability. Coinbase insider sale article Coinbase Global Company Profile (Get Free Report)
Coinbase Global, Inc operates a digital-asset platform that enables individuals, businesses and institutions to buy, sell, store and use cryptocurrencies. Its services include a cryptocurrency exchange, digital-asset custody, staking and related trading products, as well as tools designed to support institutional participation in the crypto economy.
The company also offers Coinbase Wallet, a self-custody wallet that allows users to manage digital assets and interact with decentralized applications.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Coinbase Global DraftKings Stacks the Deck: The $800M Prediction Pivot Wall Street Is Betting These 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Have More Room to Run Marvell Technology’s $90 Billion Revenue Goal Puts AI Execution Under a Microscope Meta Enterprise Platform: The “Next Major Pillar” of Zuckerberg’s AI Vision
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In the latest close session, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) was down 1.32% at $185.74. The stock's performance was behind the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.58%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.49%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.45%.
Heading into today, shares of the company had gained 1.94% over the past month, outpacing the Finance sector's loss of 4.49% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.84%.
The upcoming earnings release of Coinbase Global, Inc. will be of great interest to investors. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of -$0.22, marking a 115.28% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $1.14 billion, showing a 38.9% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of -$0.48 per share and revenue of $5.24 billion, which would represent changes of -111.91% and -26.97%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Coinbase Global, Inc. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 23.13% fall in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Coinbase Global, Inc. is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 171, positioning it in the bottom 31% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
AI agents are already moving money on platforms like Coinbase, and Cathie Wood wants investors paying close attention to where it all goes. Before you hand over account access, four controls separate a trustworthy agent from a financial liability.
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Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, offered investors a phrase to consider at Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction)’s Summit in Houston. “We’re probably going to be talking more and more about ‘follow the agents,'” Wood said, according to CoinDesk. The comment raises a critical question: what happens when software gets access to your money?
What “Follow the Agents” Would Mean for Your Accounts An AI agent is software that acts on your behalf: booking travel, buying goods, moving cash, or placing trades once you grant permission. “Follow the agents” means tracking where that software sends money, much like investors track consumer spending or fund flows.
The phrase lines up with Wood’s broader AI view. On September 25, 2026, she weighed in. She said AI is “going to leverage human beings, leverage them from a productivity point of view.” An agent managing your money is the most direct version of that leverage.
Spending Caps and Kill Switches Come First Joseph Chalom, co-CEO of SharpLink (NASDAQ:SBET) and former head of digital assets at BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), names four critical controls:
Caps: you set a hard limit on what the agent may spend. Revocation: you can pull that authority at any moment. Audit trail: you can see a record of everything the agent did. Portability: you can move an agent between financial providers the way you port a phone number between carriers. “A world full of intelligent agents means nothing if a handful of companies decide where your money can go,” Chalom wrote in the final installment of a three-part series on agentic finance. This was reported by CoinDesk.
Consumer protection systems strain under the load. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reported complaints reached more than 5.8 million in 2025, linked in part to AI agents that “empower bad actors to flood the system with duplicative and spurious submissions.”
Agents Are Already Trading on Coinbase Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), said on X that “Grok is the leading client for agentic traders on Coinbase currently,” according to CoinDesk, but provided no volume figures. On October 6, Elon Musk posted that “Grok @Bot can be your personal chief financial officer!” as he promoted the bot connected to bank and brokerage accounts.
Payment Rails Fight Is Still Open Stripe, Visa (NYSE:V), Google and OpenAI are building agent payment systems. Visa’s Intelligent Commerce Connect, announced April 8, 2026, offers “secure payment initiation, tokenization, spend controls, and authentication,” and allows agents to pay with non-Visa cards. Stablecoins and blockchains present themselves as the open alternative to concentrated platforms, leaving the contest undecided.
Reality Check Before You Hand Over the Keys Agent spending remains an unreliable demand signal. Most agent activity today is developer-directed, with agents rarely choosing where money goes independently, so for now following the agents mostly means following the programmers who build them.
Platforms That Ship These Controls First Have the Edge Platforms offering caps, cancellation, full records and portability by default will likely capture consumer money, so watch two signals: Will Coinbase, Robinhood or xAI publish agent-driven trading volume? Do those numbers come with clear spending limits and cancellation tools? Volume without controls demands for trust without earning it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Treasury just pulled back two proposed crypto surveillance rules, and the headlines are calling it a landmark win for financial privacy. But the fine print tells a different story about what actually changed and who it protects.
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The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a Treasury Department bureau focused on combating money laundering, announced it would withdraw two proposed rules that would have required banks and exchanges to report users who mix cryptocurrencies or manage their own wallets.
This decision is a significant win for advocates of crypto privacy, though it doesn’t drastically alter the experience for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holders who purchase through regulated exchanges like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction).
Deputy Director Jimmy L. Kirby signed both withdrawal notices, which are scheduled for publication in the Federal Register on October 6. The notices reference a report from the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets released in July 2025. Following the news, Coinbase’s stock rose approximately 3% to $188, while Bitcoin’s price slipped slightly, down less than 1% to around $85,690.
FinCEN Drops Its 2023 Plan to Treat Crypto Mixing as a Money Laundering Threat
Crypto mixers, which amalgamate coins from various users and shuffle them, make it difficult for outsiders to trace the movement of funds. In 2023, FinCEN proposed classifying international crypto mixing as “a class of transactions of primary money laundering concern” under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act. This classification would have allowed the Treasury to impose special measures on U.S. financial institutions.
Under that proposal, banks and exchanges would have had to report any mixing-related transactions associated with foreign jurisdictions, including wallet addresses, transaction hashes, and IP addresses, while also maintaining identity records of the involved customers.
The withdrawal notice cites the Working Group report’s emphasis on protecting lawful users’ right to transact privately with digital assets on public blockchains. FinCEN also acknowledged concerns that the expansive definition of mixing could negatively impact legitimate activities.
FinCEN Formally Ends the Self-Custody Wallet Rule Treasury Shelved in 2024
Self-custody wallets are those directly controlled by the owner, with no intermediary like a bank or exchange holding the keys. In December 2020, FinCEN proposed a rule requiring banks and money services businesses to report transactions over $10,000 with these wallets, or multiple transactions totaling over $10,000 within a 24-hour period, and to keep records of transactions above $3,000.
However, this proposal had already been marked as withdrawn as of April 12, 2024. The October 5 notice solidifies the end of this rule, prompting Jason Somensatto of Coin Center to express relief that this chapter is officially closed.
Coin Center, a policy advocacy group that opposed both proposals, has celebrated this development as a major victory for financial privacy. The group also previously campaigned against the sanctions imposed on Tornado Cash, which concluded in July 2025 when the Treasury decided not to continue its legal appeal.
Coinbase and Other Exchanges Still Run the Same Anti-Money-Laundering Checks
In its second-quarter report for 2026, Coinbase reported revenue of $1.22 billion, including $555 million from subscriptions and services. Because FinCEN never finalized either withdrawn proposal, its rescission means exchanges avoid potential future reporting costs rather than eliminating existing obligations.
The existing rules requiring exchanges to carry out anti-money-laundering measures remain unchanged. Under the Bank Secrecy Act, Coinbase must continue performing know-your-customer identity checks, maintaining an anti-money-laundering program, filing suspicious activity reports, and conducting screenings for Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions. Therefore, customers buying Bitcoin through regulated exchanges will still be subject to the same identity checks after October 5.
While FinCEN has retracted these rules, it has not ruled out future actions concerning mixers. The agency noted that some criminals use mixers to hinder investigations, indicating that it “may take appropriate steps in the future to mitigate any such activity.” Its existing Section 311 authority remains intact, allowing it to take action against specific foreign mixers in the future.
What Does FinCEN’s Withdrawal Mean for Crypto Privacy and Investors? Overall, the change primarily affects the edges of the regulatory landscape. The withdrawal of the mixing proposal represents a real policy shift, while the formal end of the wallet rule marks a significant moment for privacy advocates. However, most investors who buy Bitcoin or shares in Coinbase will not notice any practical changes since exchanges will continue their current identity-checking practices.
This outcome mainly benefits users of self-custody wallets and privacy-focused services. Nevertheless, with FinCEN holding onto its ability to impose future regulations, the question remains: how long will this victory for crypto privacy truly last?
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase has long been pitched as the smart, stable way to ride crypto without holding it directly, but the numbers behind that pitch tell a very different story about which bet actually holds its value.
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Over the last year, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) has seen its shares fall by 51%. In contrast, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has fallen 30%. This difference prompts a deeper look into the Coinbase stock versus Bitcoin debate. Many investors often view Coinbase as a more stable option for gaining exposure to cryptocurrency, particularly for retirement accounts.
As of October 2, 2026, Coinbase shares were priced at $183, while Bitcoin was trading around $86,189 as of October 5. So which investment has proven better for owning crypto, and which is more suitable for long-term investing?
Coinbase Shares Lag Behind Bitcoin Over One Year and Five
The gap in performance is significant. Over the past year, Coinbase’s stock lost 51%, whereas Bitcoin declined by 30%. This means that an investor who put $10,000 into each a year ago would now have approximately $4,900 in Coinbase shares and about $7,000 in Bitcoin.
A longer timeframe reveals an even bleaker picture for Coinbase. Over the past five years, its shares have fallen 21%, and they have fallen 19% so far in 2026. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s value rose from around $51,500 in early October 2021, up about 67%, even after a recent 32% drop from its peak of $126,080.
Short-term numbers align with this trend. Over the last month, Coinbase shares increased by 4.6%, while Bitcoin gained about 6%. However, over the past week, Coinbase stock fell 6.2%, including a 3.3% drop on October 2, while Bitcoin rose 3.6%.
Business Risks Make Coinbase Stock More Volatile Than Bitcoin
When you hold Bitcoin, you own a single asset whose price fluctuates. In contrast, owning Coinbase stock means you’re investing in a business. Coinbase’s revenue depends on how much customers trade—trading activity correlates with crypto price movements. Additionally, Coinbase faces various challenges such as operational costs, fierce competition, and regulatory scrutiny that Bitcoin does not.
These extra complexities help explain why Coinbase’s stock can decline more sharply. When cryptocurrency prices fall, trading activity typically declines, reducing Coinbase’s revenue. The stock may also suffer even if Bitcoin’s price is stable. Furthermore, neither Coinbase nor Bitcoin pays dividends, meaning they don’t generate regular income for investors.
That said, Coinbase can also benefit from conditions that Bitcoin cannot. During a strong crypto market rally, increased trading volume can boost Coinbase’s earnings significantly, sometimes leading its stock to rise faster than Bitcoin’s price.
Historically, one of the main benefits of investing in Coinbase was the convenience it offered. Investors could include its shares in an IRA or brokerage account, while owning Bitcoin directly required a self-custody wallet or a custodian service.
However, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has changed this landscape. These funds hold Bitcoin and trade like regular stocks, allowing retirement savers to gain exposure to Bitcoin within the same accounts that can hold Coinbase shares. Additionally, states such as Indiana are now adding crypto options to public retirement plans. In fact, Coinbase acts as a custodian for many of these funds, earning fees in both scenarios.
Is Coinbase Stock or Bitcoin the Better Way to Own Crypto? Given the current performance, Bitcoin appears to be the better option for owning cryptocurrency. It has lost less over the past year, has gained value over the last five years, and carries no associated business risks, while Coinbase stock has declined. For those investing in retirement accounts, a spot Bitcoin ETF now offers the benefits of Bitcoin without the custody complications that made Coinbase appealing in the past.
This conclusion challenges the perception that Coinbase is the safer investment route, as its stock has shown larger swings in value both up and down. The outcome could change if Coinbase outperforms Bitcoin during a future crypto market rally, potentially showcasing how the business can add returns beyond simply holding the coin. Until then, will the Coinbase stock versus Bitcoin conversation continue to favor Bitcoin?
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Grok now controls the majority of AI agent trading on Coinbase, but the platform stays silent on which coins these bots actually buy, leaving investors to wonder whether any token beyond USDC stands to benefit.
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Grok, the AI chatbot created by Elon Musk’s xAI, has become the frontrunner in automated trading on Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction). On September 25, 2026, Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong announced that “Grok is the leading client for agentic traders on Coinbase currently.” Data shows that from September 14 to September 21, Grok accounted for about 60% of AI agent trading activity on the platform.
Traditionally, exchange executives refer to their clients as either retail investors or institutional traders. However, Armstrong broke from that norm by naming a chatbot, highlighting the significant role that software plays in executing orders on the largest U.S. crypto exchange. This raises a pressing question: what coins are these AI agents actually buying?
Grok Drove About 60% of AI Agent Trading on Coinbase
An “agentic trader” is essentially a program that receives a wallet and specific instructions to place trades automatically, without human approval for each transaction. Coinbase introduced this capability on June 11, 2026, when it launched “Coinbase for Agents.” This service allows AI tools to trade cryptocurrencies and derivatives within predefined spending limits set by their owners.
In the week of September 22, Coinbase even expanded this service to include U.S. stocks and ETFs.
According to the developer data labeled “Where agentic traders come from,” Grok holds a commanding lead with about a 60% share, well ahead of its competition. Custom command-line tools developed by users take second place with around a 22% share, followed by Claude at 13%, Perplexity at 3.5%, and ChatGPT at 1.5%. This distribution shows that Coinbase is already organizing agent trading activity by the AI programs that power them.
Cryptocurrency trading is uniquely suited for these automated agents, more so than the stock market. Unlike traditional markets, blockchains operate 24/7 with no closing times, allowing programs to confirm payments almost instantly. Additionally, agents can create their own self-custody wallets without the identity checks typically required for brokerage accounts.
Coinbase Has Not Said Which Coins Its AI Agents Buy
While Armstrong’s announcement and the developer data show which AI products are driving trading activity, they don’t specify which coins are being traded. As of now, Coinbase has not provided any information on how agent trading activity breaks down by specific cryptocurrencies. Consequently, any speculation about “AI agent coins” is guesswork rather than based on solid exchange data.
Everyone involved in this discussion has a vested interest. Armstrong leads an exchange that profits from trading fees, while Jordi Visser and Tillman Holloway, who shared their views on The Pomp Podcast, a crypto-focused show, advocate for broader adoption of cryptocurrencies. Their points of view offer insight but not definitive data on which assets the agents are actually trading.
However, Coinbase likely has the capability to shed light on this question. Since they categorize agent traders by AI program, they should also be able to categorize orders by coin if they choose to release that information.
AI Agents Pay for Online Services in USDC
The payment aspect of agent activity offers more clarity. Coinbase has implemented a payment standard called x402, enabling AI agents to pay websites and online services directly. Armstrong mentioned in June that this system had already processed over 160 million transactions, primarily settling in USDC, the U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by Circle (NYSE: CRCL). Coinbase’s Base network handles more than 90% of this transaction volume.
In April, Coinbase transferred control of the x402 standard to an independent foundation. By July, Ripple joined as a key member alongside major players like Visa and Mastercard. Ripple has connected XRP to Stripe’s agent payment system, but the reported activity related to x402 predominantly runs on USDC.
Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation is launching similar payment tools using USDC. On October 1, they introduced zkAPI on the Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) mainnet, allowing users to prepay USDC into a vault and pay for AI models using zero-knowledge proofs—an advanced form of cryptography that confirms a payment’s validity without revealing which deposit funded it.
Visser emphasizes the need for speed in transaction settlements. He pointed out that longer settlement times can create opportunities for “agent swarms”—groups of coordinated bots that could potentially capitalize on delays. The Base network confirms transfers in about two seconds, closely aligning with Visser’s target of instant processing.
What Coins Are AI Agents Buying on Coinbase? Despite Grok’s strong presence in AI trading, the specific cryptocurrencies it buys remain a mystery, as Coinbase has not disclosed this information. While payments are primarily made in USDC, there’s still no concrete evidence of which tokens AI agents favor. Thus, any claim that a coin is a preferred choice among agents relies more on speculation than on confirmed exchange data.
Until Coinbase publishes that breakdown, can AI agent trading lift any coin beyond USDC?
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase just pooled $1 billion behind a brand-new stablecoin that shares its profits with partners rather than hoarding them, and that single design choice puts one established giant directly in the crosshairs.
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Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Visa (NYSE: V), Stripe, and Shopify have collectively committed $1 billion in liquidity to the Open USD stablecoin, which launched on September 30, 2026. A stablecoin is designed to maintain a value of $1, and with major payment companies backing it, OUSD is entering the market with significant support.
The $1 billion represents liquidity that these partners are ready to provide, allowing users to easily convert OUSD into dollars. While this commitment is substantial, it still pales in comparison to the existing market giants. This raises the question: Does Open USD pose a threat to Tether (CRYPTO: USDT), USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC), and Ripple’s RLUSD (CRYPTO: RLUSD)?
Stripe’s Bridge Issues Open USD and Shares Reserve Income With Partners
The company Bridge, acquired by Stripe for $1.1 billion in 2024, issues OUSD and provides monthly updates on its reserves. BlackRock, Lead Bank, and BNY Mellon manage these reserves. Open USD launched on Ethereum, Solana, Base, and Tempo. The organization behind OUSD, Open Standard, reports that its partner network has grown to over 200 companies, up from 140 in June.
OUSD stands out for its business model. Unlike Tether and Circle, which issue USDC and keep most of the interest income from their reserves, OUSD shares most of that revenue with its partners. These partners receive earnings based on their participation, and they can create and redeem tokens at $1 without any fees.
Essentially, this turns the companies distributing OUSD into stakeholders. As Open Standard CEO Zach Abrams explains, “Every other stablecoin is building a fund. We’re building money.”
Open USD Starts With $1 Billion Against Tether’s $184 Billion
OUSD is significantly smaller than established players. As of October 4, Tether’s USDT has a market cap of around $184 billion, while USDC stands at about $74 billion, and Ripple’s RLUSD has reached approximately $2.5 billion.
No circulating supply for OUSD was initially reported. However, Tempo, one of the blockchains supporting it, noted that OUSD trading liquidity exceeded $400 million on its first day, indicating strong initial interest, though it has not yet revealed the number of holders.
Tether and Circle built their market presence primarily through crypto trading, as traders looked for dollar alternatives to facilitate transactions. This existing habit helped them establish extensive markets that a new entrant cannot replicate overnight. However, OUSD is starting within the financial systems that handle payments directly, leveraging card networks and Shopify stores, where USDT and USDC have minimal influence. This market includes many of the 35% of Americans who now own cryptocurrency.
USDC Faces the Biggest Threat From Open USD, and RLUSD Gets a Payments Rival
Among established tokens, USDC faces the biggest risk from Open USD. Circle already splits reserve income with its distributors, and since Coinbase benefits from USDC revenue and is also an OUSD partner, it can promote whichever token offers them more profit.
Adding pressure is Visa’s involvement; the company has been working on settlement programs using USDC, while it now supports a rival that shares its revenue. So far, Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe have not committed to using OUSD for default merchant or card transactions, yet doing so could significantly boost its usage.
Ripple’s RLUSD also faces a different set of challenges. Ripple sells RLUSD to banks and payment institutions for cross-border transactions, just the type of customers that OUSD’s partners are already accommodating. With OUSD backed by major players like Visa and Mastercard, institutions assessing payment networks will have to consider this strong competitor.
Is the Open USD Stablecoin a Challenge to Tether, USDC and RLUSD? In conclusion, Open USD is primarily a concern for USDC, challenging RLUSD’s market appeal, while Tether’s lead in crypto trading remains unaffected in the short term. OUSD’s profit-sharing structure could incentivize Coinbase, Visa, and other partners to favor it over USDC, potentially pulling more business away from Circle.
For XRP holders (CRYPTO:XRP), the fate of RLUSD primarily relates to Ripple’s business developments and does not directly influence XRP’s value.
The clearest sign of Open USD’s impact will be how it is used for settlements. If Visa, Mastercard, or Stripe start processing payments in OUSD by default, or if OUSD’s supply grows into the tens of billions by mid-2027, the competitive landscape for all three established stablecoins could shift dramatically.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
CoinShares is closing two crypto ETFs on October 21, which forces a taxable sale on shareholders who never clicked sell. For retirees collecting Social Security, that involuntary gain can quietly push hundreds or thousands of extra dollars into taxable income.
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CoinShares announced on September 18 that its CoinShares Bitcoin and Ether ETF (NASDAQ:BTF) and CoinShares Altcoins ETF (NASDAQ:DIME) will liquidate on or around October 21, 2026. Shareholders can sell on Nasdaq through the close on October 20. Anyone still holding shares at liquidation gets cash equal to net asset value once the fund has paid its expenses and liabilities.
A retiree holding BTF in a taxable brokerage account faces an unexpected tax event. The fund is closing, and CoinShares says shareholders recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemption. That gain can pull more of his Social Security benefit into taxable income.
All of this is happening in a soft crypto market. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades near $83,000, down about 25% over the past year. Ether (CRYPTO:ETH) trades near $2,700, down about 35%.
Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) posted a Q2 net loss of $359.5 million as the crypto market remained soft. Even so, Bitcoin is roughly double where it traded five years ago, so someone who bought early can still be sitting on a gain.
He Never Clicked Sell, Yet He Still Has a Taxable Sale The liquidation turns his shares into cash. The cash he gets minus his cost basis is his capital gain or loss. Only the gain counts as income.
Where he holds the shares determines whether any of this matters. In an IRA or 401(k), the cash stays sheltered and nothing shows up on this year’s return. In a taxable brokerage account, the gain goes on his 2026 return.
How a Forced $20,000 Gain Reshapes His Social Security Tax The IRS uses combined income to determine how much of his benefit is taxable: half of his Social Security plus other income, including capital gains. For a single taxpayer, benefits start becoming taxable above $25,000. Above $34,000, up to 85% of benefits can be taxed. These thresholds are not adjusted for inflation.
Say he collects $30,000 a year in benefits and takes $15,000 from an IRA. Combined income is $30,000, and only $2,500 of his benefits is taxable.
Now the liquidation adds a $20,000 gain. His combined income jumps to $50,000, well above the upper threshold, and the taxable portion of his benefits rises to $18,100.
So he has $15,600 more taxable Social Security, on top of the gain itself. In this range, each extra dollar of gain makes up to 85 cents of benefits taxable too.
The 85% figure is a cap on how much of the benefit counts as taxable income, not his tax rate. For single taxpayer in 2026, the 12% bracket applies to taxable income over $12,400.
Selling Before October 20 Gives Him More Control He can sell before the liquidation, but in a brokerage account that is still a taxable sale. What selling early gives him is control. He picks the day, sees the exact gain in advance and can match the sale against losses elsewhere.
Cost Basis Matters More Than the Size of the Check Take two retirees, each with $50,000 of BTF and the same income as our example. One paid $45,000, so the liquidation creates a $5,000 gain. His taxable benefits rise only slightly, to $5,350.
The other paid $20,000. His $30,000 gain raises his taxable benefits to $25,500, the full 85% maximum. Both get the same check, but their tax bills are very different.
What to Check Before the October 20 Deadline Account type. Shares in a taxable brokerage account produce a reportable gain. Shares in an IRA or 401(k) stay sheltered. Basis. His brokerage statement shows what he paid. That number determines how big the gain is. Paper gain. Current value minus basis estimates how much the liquidation adds to combined income. Other 2026 income. IRA withdrawals, pension checks, wages, interest, and dividends may already put him near $34,000. If so, reducing an IRA withdrawal or moving a Roth conversion to 2027 could leave room for the gain. Capital losses. Losing positions elsewhere or losses carried over from past years may offset part of the gain. A Choice He Planned to Make Himself Perhaps he bought the ETF expecting to decide for himself when to cash out. The liquidation takes that decision away. For a retiree near Social Security’s tax thresholds, the forced gain may surprise him on next spring’s tax return, and it is far from the only IRS rule that quietly reaches into retirement accounts (we listed nine of them, this one included, in a free report on retiree tax traps).
Every return is a little different. A few thousand dollars of basis or other income can change the math, so it is worth running his own numbers before October 20.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Calling the bottom of anything is a reliable way to look silly later. Doing it with Bitcoin (BTC +0.61%) is that, plus a live audience. Coinbase (COIN -3.32%) CEO Brian Armstrong did it anyway in a Bloomberg video last month, saying, "I personally think we've seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle."
Armstrong has made this argument before, but he's sticking to it despite a volatile summer. He also said that about half of Coinbase's revenues come from trading volume. In other words, Armstrong isn't exactly a neutral observer.
I'm mostly on board, though. It would just be hard to claim a definitive market trough with a straight face in front of the camera, and I'd attach a "bumpy road" sticker to the whole idea.
Today's Change
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The scoreboard Weekly closes from CoinMarketCap tell Armstrong's story. Bitcoin peaked near $124,800 on Oct. 6, 2025, then slid to about $60,100 by June 29, 2026. That's a 51.8% drop, which qualifies as a technical bear market for old-school stocks. All you need for that moniker is a 20% drawdown from recent peaks.
As of Oct. 2, Bitcoin is back to roughly $85,200, up 41.6% from June's low.
Here's the thing, though: Bitcoin's last three cycle crashes were deeper: 79.9%, 81.9%, and 76.6%. By that standard, a 51.8% decline is practically a gentle correction.
What's different this time The buyer base has also changed. According to Bitbo data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products held about 1.29 million BTC, worth roughly $109.3 billion, as of Oct. 2.
That is about 6.1% of Bitcoin's maximum supply of 21 million coins. None of those funds existed at any of the three prior troughs, and neither did the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Why I'm not committed to Armstrong's market bottom Timing is the weak point. Each of the three earlier troughs arrived 924 to 999 days after a halving. Bitcoin is now 895 days past the April 2024 halving, so the next window should open around Halloween and run into mid-January 2027. Assuming that the patterns of the three earlier cycles hold firm once again, that is. Three complete cycles are a small sample.
For the first time, Bitcoin set a record high before a halving, hitting about $72,100 in March 2024 as investors digested the new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The cyclical patterns can look clear when I play around with different four-year charts, but the market is always in flux.
Image source: Getty Images.
The bottom is a neighborhood, not a street address So here's my version. The bottom is probably a zone, roughly $60,000 to $66,000, rather than a single day. Armstrong may well be right about the general neighborhood, and the timing could still wobble.
What keeps me interested over the long haul isn't a chart of daily Bitcoin prices. It's a fixed max supply of 21 million coins and a steadily growing crowd of institutional buyers.
I think Bitcoin is going places, and the worst of the dips should largely be behind it. Just pack a reliable seat belt, because the road ahead is full of potholes. Some could be deep enough to revisit June's lows.
Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) shares are trading lower Friday despite a batch of bullish analyst actions and a favorable macro backdrop that’s typically supportive of crypto-linked stocks.
Coinbase Global shares are experiencing downward pressure. Why are COIN shares declining? Analysts Turn More Positive On CoinbaseWells Fargo analyst Daniel Welden started coverage on Coinbase this week. The analyst assigned an Equal-Weight rating alongside a $200 price target. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley kept his Neutral rating in place. Moley lifted the price target to $170 from $146.
Across Wall Street, Coinbase holds a consensus Buy rating. The average price target sits at $218.48 among 49 analysts, with estimates spanning from $95 to $325.
Macro Tailwinds Initially Supported Bitcoin-Linked StocksBroader market conditions have also turned supportive of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and related stocks recently. Treasury yields eased Friday. The 10-year yield slipped to 5.25% after touching an intraday high of 5.34% earlier, its highest level since April 2002. Separately, CME FedWatch pricing now puts the odds of a Fed rate increase at just 24.9%, a steep drop from 37.6% a day earlier.
Both shifts tend to work in Bitcoin’s favor. When bonds yield less, investors have less incentive to park money in fixed-income assets instead of riskier ones. And when the Fed looks less likely to tighten policy further, it removes some of the anxiety around future borrowing costs and financial conditions, freeing investors to take on more risk.
Why Coinbase’s Stock Tends to Track BitcoinCoinbase generates much of its revenue from transaction fees tied directly to crypto trading activity. When Bitcoin and other digital assets rally, trading volume on Coinbase’s platform tends to rise alongside growing investor interest, which can boost the fees the company collects. That revenue link gives Coinbase’s stock a tendency to move in the same direction as Bitcoin’s price, even though the company itself isn’t a Bitcoin holder in the way Strategy is.
However, even with bullish analyst moves and a macro environment generally favorable to crypto names, Coinbase shares are falling today.
COIN Shares Are SlippingCOIN Price Action: Coinbase shares were down 3.80% at $182.09 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Shares of this company have returned -1.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. The Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Coinbase Global belongs, has lost 5.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Coinbase Global is expected to post a loss of $0.22 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -115.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +19.6%.
The consensus earnings estimate of -$0.48 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -111.9%. This estimate has changed -23.1% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.13 indicates a change of +752.4% from what Coinbase Global is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +20.8%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Coinbase Global is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Coinbase Global, the consensus sales estimate of $1.14 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -39.2%. The $5.24 billion and $6.61 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -27.1% and +26.3%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryCoinbase Global reported revenues of $1.22 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -18.5%. EPS of -$0.39 for the same period compares with $0.12 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.3 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -5.81%. The EPS surprise was -378.57%.
Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Coinbase Global is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Coinbase Global. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Coinbase shares have been cut nearly in half from their peak while Brian Armstrong quietly reshapes the entire business around what comes after Bitcoin dominance. Whether that transformation adds up to a $300 stock depends on a few things falling…
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Coinbase’s co-founder and chief executive, Brian Armstrong, has spent 2026 turning Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) into what he calls an “everything exchange.” Transactions tied to Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) used to bring in more than half of revenue. Today they make up 12% of the business.
On the Q2 call, Armstrong described the strategy this way: “You’ve got to have all the shelves stocked so you have the inventory when that thing trends that week.”
At $190.18, shares are down 15.9% year-to-date and 39.16% over the past year, far below the 52-week high of $402.16. Crypto volatility fell to multi-year lows, and spot volume dropped with it. For Coinbase to reach $300 in 2027, several things need to align.
Wall Street Sees Only Modest Upside, but Revenue Forecasts Point Higher The consensus price target of $207.10 means about 9% upside. Coinbase has missed revenue estimates in each of the last three quarters. In Q2 it reported EPS of -$1.36, well short of the -$0.2278 analysts expected. The 2027 EPS estimate has dropped to $2.8352, versus $4.9083 90 days earlier.
Revenue forecasts project $6.88 billion in 2027, up from $5.33 billion in 2026, roughly 29% growth. Analysts are split 3 Strong Buy, 19 Buy and 9 Hold.
Here’s the Math Behind a $300 Coinbase Coinbase trades at about 67x 2027 earnings estimates. At $300, that multiple would rise to roughly 106x. If 2027 EPS climbed back to where it stood 90 days ago, $300 would be about 61x earnings. The highest 2027 estimate is $9.45. With a beta of 3.388, Coinbase shares move sharply once crypto activity turns.
What Could Push Coinbase to $300? Market share gains: Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume reached a record 10.3% in Q2, up from 9.1% in Q1. New revenue streams: Prediction markets revenue more than doubled from Q1 and passed $100M annualized. Coinbase One has exceeded a million subscribers. Lower costs: Management expects about $600 million in cost reductions compared with the 2025 exit rate. Q2 was the 14th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. Stablecoins: Average USDC held in Coinbase products hit a record $20B. Management expects the stablecoin market to grow from $300B to $3T by 2030. Regulation: The CLARITY Act failed a Senate vote 49–50 in September. Management says SEC and CFTC leadership are prepared to set clearer rules even without the bill, so a revived bill would add upside. Buybacks: Roughly $2B remains on the repurchase authorization. Coinbase Has Posted Bigger Gains Than This Before Reaching $300 would take a gain of about 58%. Coinbase has done better: shares rose 391% in 2023 and 43% in 2024. In August 2026 alone, the stock jumped 29%. The moves go both ways: in 2022 shares fell 86%.
Why $300 Could Be Within Reach in 2027 For Coinbase to reach $300, crypto volumes need to recover and analysts must raise 2027 estimates again after cutting them hard. If that happens, Coinbase would be starting from a stronger position than in past cycles. It has a record market share, a lower cost structure and subscription revenue at 48% of net revenue.
Armstrong expects the cycle to turn: “Bitcoin will come back in a big way too.” Returns at this level are rare, but that is how Coinbase could produce exceptional gains by 2027.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $186.41, demonstrating a -1.9% change from the preceding day's closing price. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.25% for the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.86%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 0.24%.
Shares of the company have appreciated by 7.47% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Finance sector's loss of 4.43%, and the S&P 500's loss of 0.42%.
The upcoming earnings release of Coinbase Global, Inc. will be of great interest to investors. On that day, Coinbase Global, Inc. is projected to report earnings of -$0.22 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 115.28%. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $1.14 billion, showing a 39.15% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of -$0.48 per share and revenue of $5.24 billion, which would represent changes of -111.91% and -27.07%, respectively, from the prior year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Coinbase Global, Inc. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 11.93% lower within the past month. Coinbase Global, Inc. currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 101, positioning it in the top 42% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.
Key Takeaways Coinbase can now clear fully collateralized futures, options on futures and swaps through its own platform.Vertical integration may cut third-party reliance, simplify operations & speed up regulated product launches.Native USDC collateral and 24/7 settlement support Coinbase's institutional-grade derivatives ecosystem. Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) recently received CFTC Approval for Coinbase Clearing LLC. This marks an important step in the company’s efforts to build a fully integrated U.S. derivatives platform. The approval completes Coinbase’s domestic derivatives infrastructure stack, giving it control over an exchange, futures commission merchant and derivatives clearing organization. The development further supports Coinbase’s ambition to evolve into a broader “everything exchange” through continued product and infrastructure expansion.
The approval enables Coinbase Clearing to clear fully collateralized futures, options on futures and swaps. Coinbase has highlighted native USDC collateral and 24/7 settlement capabilities as key features of the platform.
Vertical integration should expand Coinbase’s addressable market while improving the economics and flexibility of its derivatives business. By controlling clearing alongside execution and brokerage, the company can reduce its dependence on third-party infrastructure, simplify operations and potentially accelerate the introduction of new regulated products. This becomes increasingly important as derivatives account for a larger share of crypto trading activity. Coinbase is expanding beyond its traditional role as a cryptocurrency exchange toward becoming a broader financial-market infrastructure provider.
The approval also strengthens Coinbase’s ability to develop an institutional-grade, regulated derivatives ecosystem. At the same time, the company will continue to rely on existing partners for certain offerings, including margined derivatives and its planned launch of single-stock perpetuals.
Overall, greater control over the derivatives value chain should provide Coinbase with additional avenues for product expansion, enhance operational flexibility and potentially improve the operating leverage of its derivatives franchise as crypto markets continue to mature.
What About Its Peers?Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) stays focused on accelerating growth through rapid product innovation and global expansion. Robinhood has been engaging in opportunistic acquisitions to deepen its footprint and expand its product reach within the United States and globally. Robinhood also noted that AI features and fast rollouts are increasing engagement, premium monetization and retention, while stronger tools attract both retail and advanced traders.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR - Free Report) continues to explore growth opportunities in the emerging markets of Taiwan, Mexico and India. Given the rapid growth of its European business, Interactive Brokers has substantially expanded its operations there. Interactive Brokers has been undertaking several measures to enhance its global presence.
COIN’s Price PerformanceShares of COIN have lost 17.6% in the year-to-date period, underperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COIN’s Expensive ValuationCOIN trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 86.71, significantly above the industry average of 14.76.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimate Movement for COINThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) witnessed northbound movement in the last 30 days. The same holds true for 2026 and 2027.
Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) has had a busy stretch heading into Wednesday that included a major regulatory approval, an expanded banking partnership and a wave of analyst activity.
Coinbase shares are trending higher. What’s driving COIN shares up? CFTC Approval for Coinbase ClearingOn Monday, Coinbase won CFTC approval to launch Coinbase Clearing LLC, the first USDC-native derivatives clearinghouse, completing the exchange’s full regulated derivatives stack. The company now holds all three regulated pieces needed for end-to-end derivatives infrastructure: a futures commission merchant through Coinbase Financial Markets, a designated contract market through Coinbase Derivatives, and now a registered derivatives clearing organization through Coinbase Clearing. Together, that lets Coinbase create and settle fully collateralized contracts directly, using USDC as collateral with 24/7 settlement.
“Today’s CFTC approval completes Coinbase’s end-to-end derivatives infrastructure, enabling us to bring more regulated derivatives products to market with native USDC collateral and 24/7 settlement,” said Molly Abraham, General Counsel of Coinbase.
Expanded Citi PartnershipSeparately, Citi and Coinbase announced Monday an expanded collaboration to connect digital and fiat payments for corporations and consumers. Coinbase selected Citi Services’ Virtual Account Wallet to power Coinbase Virtual Accounts, delivering bank-account-like functionality with automatic fiat-to-stablecoin conversion. Spring by Citi will also enable institutional clients to accept stablecoin payments at checkout, powered by Coinbase Payments, with automatic conversion to fiat settled by Citi as the bank of record.
A Wave of Analyst ActivityKeefe, Bruyette & Woods reinstated coverage on Coinbase with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target on Monday, calling the exchange the “preeminent franchise” in the space and citing a favorable turn in the crypto cycle. Robert W. Baird also raised its price target to $205 from $130 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The $32 gap between the two firms’ targets reflects a broader Wall Street divide over whether Coinbase’s newer revenue streams — including derivatives and prediction markets — can offset continued pressure on its core trading fee business, which faced a further squeeze after the company cut trading fees for active traders on Sept. 17.
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Coinbase Shares Edge HigherCOIN Price Action: At the time of publication, Coinbase shares are trading 2.99% higher at $195.70, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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Bitmine detiene il 4,9% dell’offerta complessiva di ETH, pari a 122,1 milioni di token
In soli 15 mesi, Bitmine ha raggiunto il 98% dell’obiettivo «Alchemy of 5%»
Nel terzo trimestre del 2026, ETH è finora l’asset macro con le migliori performance, superando l’S&P 500 di 6.728 punti base
Tom Lee terrà il keynote alla Korea Blockchain Week il 30 settembre 2026
Bitmine è stata inclusa nel Russell 1000 Large-cap Index il 26 giugno 2026
Le azioni privilegiate Series A di Bitmine sono negoziate al NYSE con il simbolo BMNP
Bitmine ha 5.067.309 ETH in staking, per un valore di 13,7 miliardi di dollari calcolato a 2.698 dollari per ETH. MAVAN (Made in America VAlidator Network) rappresenta una piattaforma di riferimento per lo staking di Ethereum destinata a BMNR e agli investitori istituzionali
Bitmine detiene una partecipazione da 115 milioni di dollari in Eightco (NASDAQ: ORBS), una delle poche società quotate al mondo che offrono agli investitori un’esposizione indiretta a OpenAI
Il valore complessivo delle disponibilità di Bitmine in criptovalute, liquidità, titoli negoziabili e investimenti «moonshot» ammonta a 17,2 miliardi di dollari e comprende oltre 6 milioni di ETH, liquidità e titoli negoziabili per 672 milioni di dollari, oltre ad altre criptovalute
Bitmine continua a essere sostenuta da un gruppo di investitori istituzionali di primo piano, tra cui Cathie Wood di ARK, MOZAYYX, Founders Fund, Bill Miller III, Pantera, Kraken, DCG, Galaxy Digital e l’investitore privato Thomas «Tom» Lee, a sostegno dell’obiettivo della società di acquisire il 5% dell’offerta di ETH
, /PRNewswire/ -- Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BMNR) («Bitmine» o la «Società»), società attiva nell'ecosistema Bitcoin ed Ethereum e focalizzata sull'accumulo di criptovalute come investimento di lungo termine, ha annunciato oggi che il valore complessivo delle proprie disponibilità in criptovalute, liquidità, titoli negoziabili e investimenti «moonshot» ammonta a 17,2 miliardi di dollari.
Bitmine Weekly Update
Asset Performance relative to SEP 500 since June 30, 2026
STAKING: BMNR now staking over 5 million ETH as of Sep 27, 2026
ALCHEMY OF 5%: BMNR ranked #94 by 5D avg daily $ volume
Alle 15:00 ET del 27 settembre 2026, le partecipazioni in criptovalute della Società comprendono 6.001.302 ETH al prezzo di 2.698 dollari per ETH (fonte CoinbaseNASDAQ: COIN), 213 Bitcoin (BTC), una partecipazione da 180 milioni di dollari in Beast Industries, una partecipazione da 115 milioni di dollari in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS), classificata tra gli investimenti «moonshot», e liquidità e titoli negoziabili per un totale di 672 milioni di dollari. Le partecipazioni in ETH di Bitmine rappresentano il 4,9% dell'offerta complessiva di Ethereum, pari a 122,1 milioni di ETH.
«Le partecipazioni totali di Bitmine in ETH ora superano i 6 milioni. Si tratta di un risultato straordinario, avendo accumulato questo totale in meno di 15 mesi. Stiamo già vedendo le sinergie e gli effetti positivi della rete derivanti dal nostro accumulo di quasi il 5% dell'offerta totale di ETH», ha dichiarato Thomas "Tom" Lee, presidente di Bitmine.
«Inoltre, continuiamo a vedere segnali a conferma del fatto che è in corso un mercato rialzista delle criptovalute, iniziato alla fine di giugno. A nostro avviso, le istituzioni stanno ancora sottovalutando le criptovalute e ci aspettiamo che aumentino la loro esposizione negli ultimi mesi del 2026. A poco più di una settimana dalla fine del terzo trimestre del calendario (3T26), la sovraperformance di Ethereum come asset macro continua a rafforzarsi. Per il trimestre di calendario fino ad oggi, l'ETH ha registrato una sovraperformance di 6.728 punti base, distanziando altri asset macro», ha dichiarato Lee.
Tom Lee terrà inoltre il keynote della Korea Blockchain Week 2026 il 30 settembre alle 11:20 (KST) presso il Walkerhill Hotels & Resorts di Seoul. L'intervento, della durata di 25 minuti, farà parte della Korea Blockchain Week, una delle principali conferenze asiatiche dedicate alla blockchain e agli asset digitali. Ulteriori informazioni sono disponibili sul sito web della Korea Blockchain Week.
«Nell'ultima settimana abbiamo acquistato 17.362 ETH. Nessuna società quotata al mondo può vantare una continuità negli acquisti di criptovalute paragonabile a quella di Bitmine. Bitmine ha acquistato ETH ogni settimana dall'avvio della propria ETH Treasury Strategy, il 30 giugno 2025», ha dichiarato Lee.
Il 16 luglio 2026 Bitmine ha pubblicato il più recente messaggio del Presidente (link qui) relativo a luglio 2026, intitolato «ETH è la risposta alla "valle perturbante" della ricchezza».
All'inizio del 2026, Bitmine ha lanciato MAVAN, acronimo di Made in America VAlidator Network, la propria piattaforma di staking di livello istituzionale. Inizialmente sviluppata per supportare la tesoreria in Ethereum di Bitmine, MAVAN è stata successivamente ampliata per servire investitori istituzionali, società di custodia e partner dell'ecosistema alla ricerca di un'infrastruttura di staking di livello professionale. Una parte degli ETH detenuti da Bitmine è già in staking sulla piattaforma MAVAN.
Al 27 settembre 2026, Bitmine aveva complessivamente 5.067.309 ETH in staking, per un valore pari a 13,7 miliardi di dollari, calcolato a 2.698 dollari per ETH. «Bitmine ha messo in staking più ETH di qualsiasi altra entità al mondo. A regime, quando tutti gli ETH di Bitmine saranno messi in staking tramite MAVAN e i suoi partner, le ricompense da staking previste ammonteranno a 424 milioni di dollari su base annualizzata, sulla base di un rendimento BMNR a 7 giorni del 2,62%», ha dichiarato Lee.
«I ricavi annualizzati derivanti dallo staking sono attualmente stimati in 358 milioni di dollari. I 5,1 milioni di ETH in staking rappresentano l'84% dei 6,00 milioni di ETH detenuti da Bitmine. Le attività di staking gestite direttamente da Bitmine hanno generato un rendimento a 7 giorni pari al 2,62% su base annualizzata», ha proseguito Lee.
Bitmine è uno dei titoli più scambiati negli Stati Uniti. Secondo i dati di Fundstrat, il titolo ha registrato un volume medio giornaliero di scambi pari a 1,1 miliardi di dollari (media a 5 giorni, al 25 settembre 2026), classificandosi al 94° posto negli Stati Uniti, dietro a Twilio Inc (93° posto) e davanti a Philip Morris International (95° posto) tra i 5.704 titoli quotati negli Stati Uniti (statista.com e ricerca di Fundstrat).
Le disponibilità di criptovalute di Bitmine la collocano al primo posto tra le società con una tesoreria in Ethereum al mondo e al secondo posto tra le tesorerie crypto a livello globale, dietro a Strategy Inc., che secondo quanto riportato detiene 845.080 BTC per un valore di circa 75 miliardi di dollari. Bitmine rimane la maggiore società al mondo per consistenza della tesoreria in Ethereum.
Il management di Bitmine ritiene che il GENIUS Act e il Project Crypto della Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) possano avere sui servizi finanziari nel 2026 un impatto trasformativo paragonabile a quello dell'intervento statunitense del 15 agosto 1971, che pose fine al sistema di Bretton Woods e sganciò il dollaro statunitense dalla convertibilità in oro 55 anni fa. L'evento del 1971 rappresentò il catalizzatore della modernizzazione di Wall Street, contribuendo alla nascita dei grandi protagonisti della finanza e delle infrastrutture finanziarie e di pagamento che conosciamo oggi. Questi si sono poi rivelati investimenti più redditizi dell'oro.
Il messaggio del Presidente è disponibile qui:
https://www.Bitminetech.io/chairmans-message
La presentazione dei risultati dell'intero esercizio fiscale 2025 e la presentazione societaria sono disponibili qui: https://Bitminetech.io/investor-relations/
Per ricevere aggiornamenti, è possibile registrarsi qui: https://Bitminetech.io/contact-us/
Informazioni su Bitmine
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BMNR), insieme alle proprie controllate («Bitmine» o la «Società»), è un'azienda attiva nelle infrastrutture tecnologiche blockchain e opera nei servizi istituzionali di staking e validazione di asset digitali, nel mining di Bitcoin e nella gestione strategica di asset digitali. In qualità di principale società al mondo con una tesoreria in Ethereum, adotta una strategia innovativa di gestione degli asset digitali destinata agli investitori istituzionali e agli investitori nei mercati regolamentati. La Società fornisce infrastrutture di staking e validazione di livello istituzionale, attraverso le quali genera ricompense da staking e ricavi derivanti dalla validazione, oltre a svolgere attività di mining di Bitcoin. Bitmine detiene strategicamente asset digitali e genera rendimenti su tali disponibilità a sostegno della liquidità e della raccolta di capitale. Dal 2025, la Società ha ampliato le proprie capacità infrastrutturali nel settore blockchain, includendo lo sviluppo e l'implementazione di MAVAN, la propria piattaforma istituzionale di staking e validazione. Le attività della Società comprendono inoltre investimenti in opportunità blockchain in fase iniziale, ad alto potenziale, nonché servizi accessori di mining, gestione di infrastrutture e consulenza.
Per altre informazioni, segui Bitmine su X:
https://x.com/bitmnr
https://x.com/fundstrat
Avvertenza sulle dichiarazioni previsionali
Il presente comunicato stampa contiene dichiarazioni che costituiscono «dichiarazioni previsionali» ai sensi del Private Securities Litigation Reform Act del 1995, e successive modifiche. Le dichiarazioni previsionali comprendono tutte le dichiarazioni che non hanno natura esclusivamente storica e possono generalmente essere identificate dall'uso di termini quali «si attende», «proietta», «intende», «pianifica», «crede», «si aspetta», «stima», «prevede», «mira», «obiettivi», «può», «potrà», «potrebbe», «dovrebbe», «ritiene», «considera» o espressioni analoghe, nonché dalla forma negativa di tali termini o da altra terminologia equivalente. In particolare, il presente comunicato stampa contiene dichiarazioni previsionali riguardanti, tra l'altro: (i) l'obiettivo della Società di acquisire il 5% dell'offerta complessiva di ETH, nell'ambito dell'iniziativa «Alchemy of 5%», e le dichiarazioni secondo cui, in 15 mesi, la Società avrebbe raggiunto il 98% del percorso necessario per conseguire tale obiettivo; (ii) la strategia della Società relativa all'accumulo e alla gestione di asset digitali in tesoreria, incluse le dichiarazioni riguardanti gli acquisti settimanali continuativi di ETH dall'avvio della ETH Treasury Strategy il 30 giugno 2025 e il posizionamento della Società come maggiore tesoreria in ETH al mondo; (iii) le attività di staking della Società, incluse le ricompense annualizzate di staking di ETH stimate in circa 424 milioni di dollari a regime, ipotizzando che tutti gli ETH di Bitmine siano messi in staking tramite MAVAN e i relativi partner e applicando un rendimento BMNR a 7 giorni del 2,62%, i ricavi annualizzati da staking attualmente stimati in circa 358 milioni di dollari; (iv) l'espansione di MAVAN per servire investitori istituzionali, società di custodia e partner dell'ecosistema alla ricerca di infrastrutture di staking di livello avanzato, nonché l'obiettivo di posizionare MAVAN come una delle principali piattaforme di staking di Ethereum per BMNR e gli investitori istituzionali; (v) dichiarazioni relative alla performance di ETH, indicato finora come l'asset macro con le migliori performance nel terzo trimestre 2026, con una sovraperformance di 6.728 punti base rispetto all'indice S&P 500; (vi) la convinzione del management secondo cui le istituzioni stanno ancora sottovalutando le criptovalute e l'aspettativa che gli investitori istituzionali aumenteranno la loro esposizione alle criptovalute negli ultimi mesi del 2026; (vii) la convinzione del management secondo cui è in corso un mercato rialzista delle criptovalute, iniziato alla fine di giugno; (viii) la convinzione del management secondo cui il GENIUS Act e il Project Crypto della SEC potrebbero avere nel 2026 un impatto trasformativo sui servizi finanziari paragonabile alla fine del sistema di Bretton Woods nel 1971 e secondo cui gli investimenti derivanti da tale trasformazione potrebbero rivelarsi più redditizi dell'oro; (ix) le dichiarazioni relative agli investimenti della Società, inclusa l'affermazione secondo cui l'investimento in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS) offrirebbe agli investitori un'esposizione indiretta a OpenAI, nonché la partecipazione da 180 milioni di dollari in Beast Industries; e (x) le dichiarazioni relative al valore delle disponibilità della Società in criptovalute, liquidità, titoli negoziabili e investimenti «moonshot», incluse disponibilità complessive per 17,2 miliardi di dollari e partecipazioni in ETH pari al 4,9% dell'offerta complessiva di ETH.
Tali dichiarazioni previsionali comportano rischi e incertezze significativi che potrebbero determinare risultati effettivi sostanzialmente diversi da quelli espressi o implicitamente indicati. Tra i fattori che potrebbero determinare o contribuire a tali differenze figurano, a titolo esemplificativo e non esaustivo: l'estrema volatilità e imprevedibilità dei prezzi degli asset digitali, inclusi ETH e Bitcoin, e la natura speculativa degli investimenti in asset digitali; il rischio che i movimenti storici del prezzo di ETH e la performance relativa rispetto ad altri asset macro non si ripetano o non siano indicativi delle performance future; la dipendenza della Società da fonti terze per la determinazione dei prezzi, inclusa Coinbase, e dai valori di mercato riportati ai fini del calcolo del valore delle proprie disponibilità in criptovalute, liquidità, titoli negoziabili e investimenti «moonshot», nonché il rischio che tali valori subiscano variazioni significative dopo la data e l'ora di cui al presente comunicato; le variazioni delle condizioni di mercato che possono influire sul prezzo e sui volumi di negoziazione delle azioni ordinarie e delle azioni privilegiate di Serie A della Società, nonché il rischio che l'inclusione della Società nell'indice Russell 1000 non produca i benefici attesi; la capacità della Società di attuare con successo la propria strategia di acquisizione di asset digitali, mantenere la continuità degli acquisti settimanali di ETH e raggiungere i propri obiettivi di accumulo di ETH, compreso l'obiettivo «Alchemy of 5%»; la capacità della Società di finanziare le proprie operazioni operative, le attività legate alla tesoreria in Ethereum e l'espansione di MAVAN; i rischi operativi, di sicurezza e tecnologici connessi alle attività di staking e validazione della Società, inclusi guasti di rete, eventi di slashing, violazioni della cybersicurezza e modifiche ai protocolli; il rischio che i livelli effettivi di partecipazione allo staking, i rendimenti, le ricompense e i ricavi differiscano in misura significativa dagli importi previsionali descritti nel presente comunicato, che si basano su un rendimento a 7 giorni e presuppongono che, a regime, tutti gli ETH siano messi in staking; la concorrenza nei settori della tesoreria di asset digitali, dello staking e del mining; la dipendenza della Società da figure chiave, tra cui i dirigenti; gli sviluppi normativi riguardanti gli asset digitali, la tecnologia blockchain e le attività di staking negli Stati Uniti e a livello globale, compresa l'eventuale approvazione definitiva, attuazione e interpretazione del GENIUS Act e di altre proposte legislative e iniziative normative in corso; le iniziative della SEC, della CFTC e di altri organismi di regolamentazione che possono incidere sugli asset digitali e sulle attività a essi correlate; i rischi connessi agli investimenti della Società in opportunità blockchain in fase iniziale, definiti investimenti «moonshot», inclusi gli investimenti in Eightco Holdings, compresa la natura e l'entità di qualsiasi eventuale esposizione indiretta a OpenAI, e in Beast Industries; i fattori macroeconomici, tra cui inflazione, tassi di interesse, politica monetaria della Federal Reserve, condizioni del mercato del lavoro, rischi bellici, aumento dei rendimenti e condizioni economiche generali che possono influire sul sentiment degli investitori nei confronti degli asset digitali; l'imprevedibilità dei cicli del mercato delle criptovalute e l'accuratezza delle aspettative del management in merito alla partecipazione istituzionale; eventuali modifiche al protocollo Ethereum, incluse le modalità di staking, i requisiti dei validatori e le strutture delle ricompense; la performance dei fornitori terzi di servizi, degli exchange, delle società di custodia e dei partner di staking; i rischi connessi alla concentrazione degli asset della Società in valute digitali, in particolare Ethereum; nonché gli altri fattori di rischio descritti nei documenti presentati dalla Società presso la SEC.
Le dichiarazioni previsionali contenute nel presente comunicato stampa si basano sulle informazioni a disposizione del management alla data del presente comunicato e riflettono le attuali aspettative, stime, previsioni, proiezioni, valutazioni e convinzioni del management in merito a eventi e circostanze future. I risultati effettivi potrebbero differire in misura significativa da quelli espressi o implicitamente indicati nelle dichiarazioni previsionali per effetto di numerosi fattori, tra cui quelli sopra descritti e quelli riportati nella sezione «Risk Factors» dell'Annual Report della Società su Form 10-K relativo all'esercizio chiuso al 30 settembre 2025, depositato presso la SEC il 21 novembre 2025, nei Quarterly Reports della Società su Form 10-Q e negli altri documenti depositati dalla Società presso la SEC, come eventualmente modificati o aggiornati nel tempo. Copie di tali documenti sono disponibili sul sito web della SEC all'indirizzo www.sec.gov e sul sito web della Società all'indirizzo:
https://Bitminetech.io/investor-relations/. La Società invita i lettori a non fare eccessivo affidamento sulle dichiarazioni previsionali, che riflettono esclusivamente le circostanze esistenti alla data in cui vengono formulate. Bitmine declina espressamente qualsiasi obbligo o impegno di aggiornare, rivedere o integrare le dichiarazioni previsionali al fine di riflettere eventuali cambiamenti delle proprie aspettative o variazioni negli eventi, nelle condizioni o nelle circostanze su cui tali dichiarazioni si basano, salvo quanto richiesto dalla normativa o dalla regolamentazione applicabile.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTC-USD, ETH-USD, COIN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
The same technology moving Iran's money just went live inside Citi. Senate Democrats published a report Monday finding that 84% of 846 Iran-linked wallets moved money almost entirely in Tether.
Key Takeaways Citigroup expands its Coinbase tie-up to support virtual accounts and stablecoin-based payments.C will enable institutional clients to accept stablecoin payments through Spring by Citi and settle in fiat.Citigroup's payments network handles nearly $6 trillion in daily payment volume as of May 2026. In line with its broader digital-payments push, Citigroup Inc. (C - Free Report) is expanding its collaboration with Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) to deepen its role in stablecoin-based payments. Building on their October 2025 partnership, the expanded tie-up links COIN’s digital-asset infrastructure with C’s virtual-account, payment and fiat-settlement capabilities.
As part of the collaboration, C will support Coinbase Virtual Accounts through Citigroup Services’ Virtual Account Wallet, which forms part of its broader Banking-as-a-Service offering. The service will allow customers to accept, hold and pay funds while automatically converting incoming fiat into stablecoins. C will also enable institutional clients to accept stablecoin payments through Spring by Citi. Under this arrangement, Coinbase Payments will convert stablecoin payments into fiat, while C will receive and settle the funds as the bank of record. This structure allows merchants to accept stablecoin payments without directly holding or managing digital assets and could help them reach more than 150 million stablecoin holders globally.
The expanded Coinbase relationship adds to C’s broader digital-payments infrastructure and growing reach across payment channels. The bank has strengthened this platform through Citi Token Services, which was integrated with 24/7 USD Clearing in 2025 to support cross-border payments and liquidity management. Earlier partnerships with Mastercard and Dandelion have also broadened WorldLink’s reach across debit cards and digital wallets. Together, these initiatives expand C’s payments reach, with management reporting nearly $6 trillion in daily payment volume as of May 2026.
Against this backdrop, the expanded Coinbase relationship gives C another avenue to extend its payments capabilities into the growing stablecoin ecosystem. By combining C’s regulated banking, fiat-conversion and settlement capabilities with Coinbase’s digital-asset infrastructure, the offering allows businesses to accept blockchain-based payments without directly holding or managing digital assets. With C already banking 90% of the top e-commerce companies and 15 of the world’s 20 largest fintechs, its existing institutional relationships could provide a sizable distribution base for the new services.
The tie-up could help C capture growth in stablecoin payments, supporting transaction and fee revenues as adoption increases. However, the financial impact will depend on adoption, payment volumes and C’s ability to monetize the flows.
What Steps Are Other Banks Taking Toward Stablecoin Adoption?Citigroup is not the only financial institution expanding its stablecoin capabilities. In June 2026, The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY - Free Report) announced an expanded relationship with Circle Internet Group (CRCL - Free Report) to strengthen its institutional stablecoin services.
BNY made USDC the first stablecoin supported on its Digital Asset Custody platform, allowing institutional clients to hold, transfer, mint and redeem USDC. Clients can also convert U.S. dollars into USDC and redeem USDC for dollars through BNY’s custody framework. BNY plans to gradually support additional stablecoin issuers and broader digital cash use cases, expanding its digital-asset capabilities for institutional clients.
C’s Price Performance & Zacks RankOver the past six months, shares of Citigroup have gained 22.4% compared with the industry’s growth of 19.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Citigroup currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global closed a strategic funding round with Raven, a trading firm, at a $90 million pre-money valuation.
Founded in 2023, Raven provides liquidity in crypto trading but has expanded into prediction markets since the second quarter of 2025, according to cofounder, Petar Kostov.
"Venues without enough trading volume often struggle to find a liquidity partner at all. Venues with a lot of trading volume often struggle to find enough liquidity to keep up," Kostov told CNBC.
Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global confirmed the funding round with CNBC. Coinbase Ventures is the investment arm of Crypto platform Coinbase, which introduced prediction markets in its trading app last December. CMCC Global is a Hong Kong-based investor focused on blockchain technology.
"We are excited to support Raven's next phase of growth as they expand the business and continue to dominate liquidity on the venues that they serve," said Charlie Morris, CMCC co-founder. Morris has joined Raven's board of directors and will work with management to expand among institutions.
Raven serves as an institutional market-maker for prediction markets, generating constant buy and sell orders on contracts, giving traders liquidity to enter and exit positions. But the company wears multiple hats, Kostov said.
"Early on, we advise on the technical setup and on market design, from API specifications to which markets to list first. At launch, we provide the opening liquidity. After launch, we stay in the book and help the venue expand into new categories as it grows," he added.
The firm provides liquidity on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, while also participating in both non-U.S. regulated or on-chain venues, according to Raven's website. Raven has quoted more than 3,000 contracts, including sports, crypto, macroeconomics and entertainment.
Raven was an established high-frequency trading firm providing liquidity across centralized and decentralized exchanges before entering prediction markets.
According to The Block, the company raised $2.7 million in a seed funding round at a $25 million valuation, with Hack VC leading. Wintermute Ventures with other angel investors were also in a 2024 round.
Raven declined to comment on how much Coinbase and CMCC each invested in the latest round.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in COIN over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Coinbase's new virtual accounts run on Citi's banking-as-a-service platform Summary
Coinbase and Citi deepened their partnership, letting Citi's institutional merchants accept stablecoins at checkout and powering Coinbase's new fiat virtual accounts.
Coinbase Global COIN, the crypto exchange, said it has deepened its collaboration with Citigroup C on two fronts. Citi's institutional clients using Spring by Citi, the bank's payment acceptance platform, can now take stablecoin payments at checkout through Coinbase's payments infrastructure without holding stablecoins themselves. Coinbase converts the tokens into fiat, and Citi settles the funds as the bank of record. Coinbase shares were down 0.38% intraday, as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
The second piece runs the other way. Coinbase chose Citi's Virtual Account Wallet, part of the bank's banking-as-a-service offering, to power Coinbase Virtual Accounts. These give payments customers bank-account-like functionality to accept, hold and send funds, with incoming fiat converted automatically into stablecoins.
Coinbase said the services will launch first in the U.S., with more capabilities to follow in the coming months, and pitched the merchant side as reaching a market of more than 150 million stablecoin holders worldwide. Brett Tejpaul, head of Coinbase Institutional, said Citi is the kind of regulated banking partner the industry needs to move digital assets "from experimentation to everyday commerce."
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--As demand for 24/7 and always-on financial services accelerates, corporate and financial institutional clients face operational complexity and risk when connecting traditional banking and securities services with new blockchain infrastructure. Through an expanded collaboration announced today, Citi and Coinbase are addressing this challenge by enabling clients to access new payment capabilities without having to build or manage separate infrastructure, driving interop.
