Evergreen Capital Management LLC reduced its position in Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) by 3.0% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 509,452 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 15,877 shares during the period. Capital One Financial comprises about 1.7% of Evergreen Capital Management LLC’s portfolio, making the stock its 9th biggest holding. Evergreen Capital Management LLC owned about 0.08% of Capital One Financial worth $98,360,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Other hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Gibbs Wealth Management increased its holdings in Capital One Financial by 41.5% in the third quarter. Gibbs Wealth Management now owns 8,826 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $1,704,000 after buying an additional 2,589 shares in the last quarter. Farmers & Merchants Investments Inc. raised its position in shares of Capital One Financial by 0.7% in the third quarter. Farmers & Merchants Investments Inc. now owns 89,026 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $17,188,000 after acquiring an additional 636 shares during the period. Capital Investment Advisors LLC boosted its stake in shares of Capital One Financial by 10.4% during the 3rd quarter. Capital Investment Advisors LLC now owns 7,399 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,429,000 after acquiring an additional 694 shares in the last quarter. Atala Financial Inc purchased a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the 3rd quarter worth about $515,000. Finally, Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of Capital One Financial by 5.0% during the 3rd quarter. Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 20,733 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $4,003,000 after acquiring an additional 983 shares during the period. 89.84% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Trending Headlines about Capital One Financial Here are the key news stories impacting Capital One Financial this week:
Positive Sentiment: Q3 results exceeded expectations. Capital One reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.69, up 12% year over year, while revenue increased 6% to $16.3 billion. The double beat initially supported bullish investor sentiment. Capital One Earnings: After a Double Beat the Rally Is On Positive Sentiment: Discover integration is showing early operating benefits. Net interest margin expanded to 8.41%, pre-provision earnings rose 10% sequentially to $7.5 billion, and the efficiency ratio improved. Global Payment Network volume climbed 25% to $190.9 billion, supporting the case for greater long-term earnings power from the acquisition. Capital One Grows Quarterly Profit as Card Lending and Discover Integrate Positive Sentiment: Capital return and analyst support remain favorable. Capital One repurchased $2.6 billion of stock during the quarter and has bought back approximately $7.9 billion in 2026. JPMorgan raised its price target, while BMO’s analysis points to potential appreciation despite retaining a Hold rating. Capital One Stock Gets Price Target Boost from JPMorgan Neutral Sentiment: Credit metrics are mixed but not clearly deteriorating. Domestic card delinquencies increased sequentially to 3.74%, although they remained below the year-ago level. Net charge-offs declined to 3.98%, and the company released $225 million from credit-loss reserves. Investors remain focused on whether the broader consumer credit cycle worsens. Capital One: Discover Makes It Interesting But The Credit Cycle Decides Negative Sentiment: Recent price-target reductions and conflicting ratings are limiting enthusiasm. BMO maintained a Hold rating, analysts remain divided, and separate reports cited roughly 20% reductions in targets for Capital One preferred stock. Those preferred-stock revisions do not directly value COF common shares but may add to cautious sentiment. BMO Capital Sticks to Its Hold Rating Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades Several brokerages recently weighed in on COF. BMO Capital Markets lifted their price target on Capital One Financial from $219.00 to $225.00 and gave the company a “market perform” rating in a research note on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley reduced their price target on Capital One Financial from $273.00 to $267.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a report on Monday, October 12th. HSBC upgraded Capital One Financial from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and increased their price target for the stock from $226.00 to $229.00 in a research report on Sunday, July 12th. Citigroup raised their price objective on Capital One Financial from $280.00 to $285.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday. Finally, Barclays boosted their price objective on Capital One Financial from $237.00 to $238.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research report on Wednesday. Twenty equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and four have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Capital One Financial currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $256.32. Get Our Latest Research Report on Capital One Financial
Capital One Financial Trading Down 1.1% Shares of Capital One Financial stock opened at $201.26 on Friday. The company has a current ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. Capital One Financial Corporation has a twelve month low of $174.24 and a twelve month high of $259.64. The firm has a market capitalization of $123.47 billion, a PE ratio of 11.88, a P/E/G ratio of 0.95 and a beta of 1.04. The firm’s 50-day moving average price is $206.09 and its 200 day moving average price is $200.95.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, October 20th. The financial services provider reported $6.69 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $5.53 by $1.16. Capital One Financial had a return on equity of 11.64% and a net margin of 13.70%. The business had revenue of $16.31 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $16.25 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm earned $5.95 earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 6.4% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, sell-side analysts predict that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 21.28 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Capital One Financial Dividend Announcement The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Stockholders of record on Monday, August 17th were paid a $0.80 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.6%. Capital One Financial’s payout ratio is currently 18.89%.
Insider Activity In other Capital One Financial news, insider Celia Karam sold 1,927 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total value of $377,422.22. Following the transaction, the insider owned 55,774 shares in the company, valued at approximately $10,923,895.64. This trade represents a 3.34% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, insider Lia Dean sold 1,887 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total value of $369,587.82. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 59,308 shares in the company, valued at $11,616,064.88. The trade was a 3.08% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold 37,664 shares of company stock valued at $7,914,162 in the last three months. Company insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock.
Capital One Financial Company Profile (Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company operates as a bank holding company through Capital One, N.A., providing financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial customers.
Capital One is best known for its credit card business, which offers a range of consumer and business cards. Its other activities include consumer banking products such as checking and savings accounts, auto loans and retail banking services, as well as commercial banking services for businesses and institutions.
The company primarily serves customers in the United States through digital channels, branches and other distribution networks.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Capital One Financial Bloom Energy Just Reported—Its Biggest Order Is Still Waiting on a Pipeline Why Western Digital’s AI Storage Boom Defies the Chip Sell-Off Grand Canyon Education Strengthens Its Outlook, But Wall Street Remains Divided Amex Stock Slides on Job Cuts, But the Real Story Is Macro Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COF? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report).
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Gibbs Wealth Management grew its holdings in Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) by 41.5% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 8,826 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after purchasing an additional 2,589 shares during the period. Gibbs Wealth Management’s holdings in Capital One Financial were worth $1,704,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other institutional investors also recently modified their holdings of the business. Farmers & Merchants Investments Inc. increased its stake in Capital One Financial by 0.7% in the 3rd quarter. Farmers & Merchants Investments Inc. now owns 89,026 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $17,188,000 after acquiring an additional 636 shares during the last quarter. Capital Investment Advisors LLC raised its holdings in shares of Capital One Financial by 10.4% in the 3rd quarter. Capital Investment Advisors LLC now owns 7,399 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $1,429,000 after acquiring an additional 694 shares in the last quarter. Atala Financial Inc purchased a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial in the 3rd quarter valued at about $515,000. Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC boosted its position in shares of Capital One Financial by 5.0% during the 3rd quarter. Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 20,733 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $4,003,000 after acquiring an additional 983 shares during the last quarter. Finally, XXI Wealth LLC bought a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the 3rd quarter valued at about $265,000. 89.84% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Key Headlines Impacting Capital One Financial Here are the key news stories impacting Capital One Financial this week:
Positive Sentiment: Q3 results exceeded expectations. Capital One reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.69, up 12% year over year, while revenue increased 6% to $16.3 billion. The double beat initially supported bullish investor sentiment. Capital One Earnings: After a Double Beat the Rally Is On Positive Sentiment: Discover integration is showing early operating benefits. Net interest margin expanded to 8.41%, pre-provision earnings rose 10% sequentially to $7.5 billion, and the efficiency ratio improved. Global Payment Network volume climbed 25% to $190.9 billion, supporting the case for greater long-term earnings power from the acquisition. Capital One Grows Quarterly Profit as Card Lending and Discover Integrate Positive Sentiment: Capital return and analyst support remain favorable. Capital One repurchased $2.6 billion of stock during the quarter and has bought back approximately $7.9 billion in 2026. JPMorgan raised its price target, while BMO’s analysis points to potential appreciation despite retaining a Hold rating. Capital One Stock Gets Price Target Boost from JPMorgan Neutral Sentiment: Credit metrics are mixed but not clearly deteriorating. Domestic card delinquencies increased sequentially to 3.74%, although they remained below the year-ago level. Net charge-offs declined to 3.98%, and the company released $225 million from credit-loss reserves. Investors remain focused on whether the broader consumer credit cycle worsens. Capital One: Discover Makes It Interesting But The Credit Cycle Decides Negative Sentiment: Recent price-target reductions and conflicting ratings are limiting enthusiasm. BMO maintained a Hold rating, analysts remain divided, and separate reports cited roughly 20% reductions in targets for Capital One preferred stock. Those preferred-stock revisions do not directly value COF common shares but may add to cautious sentiment. BMO Capital Sticks to Its Hold Rating Insider Transactions at Capital One Financial In other news, insider Michael Zamsky sold 5,473 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Monday, August 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $218.02, for a total value of $1,193,223.46. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 27,992 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $6,102,815.84. This represents a 16.35% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Also, insider Lia Dean sold 1,887 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total transaction of $369,587.82. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 59,308 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $11,616,064.88. This trade represents a 3.08% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last quarter, insiders sold 37,664 shares of company stock worth $7,914,162. Corporate insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock. Wall Street Analyst Weigh In Several brokerages have recently commented on COF. Piper Sandler boosted their price objective on Capital One Financial from $260.00 to $269.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a report on Wednesday. TD Cowen raised their target price on shares of Capital One Financial from $242.00 to $250.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday. Wolfe Research raised their target price on shares of Capital One Financial from $255.00 to $275.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 25th. UBS Group reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Capital One Financial in a research report on Thursday. Finally, Barclays boosted their price target on shares of Capital One Financial from $237.00 to $238.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Wednesday. Twenty research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and four have issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $256.32.
Check Out Our Latest Analysis on COF
Capital One Financial Stock Performance Shares of NYSE COF opened at $201.26 on Friday. The stock has a market cap of $123.47 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.88, a P/E/G ratio of 0.95 and a beta of 1.04. The company has a current ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45. Capital One Financial Corporation has a 1-year low of $174.24 and a 1-year high of $259.64. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $206.09 and its 200 day moving average is $200.95.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Tuesday, October 20th. The financial services provider reported $6.69 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $5.53 by $1.16. The business had revenue of $16.31 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $16.25 billion. Capital One Financial had a return on equity of 11.64% and a net margin of 13.70%. Capital One Financial’s revenue for the quarter was up 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm earned $5.95 earnings per share. On average, sell-side analysts anticipate that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 21.28 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Capital One Financial Announces Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Shareholders of record on Monday, August 17th were paid a dividend of $0.80 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.20 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.6%. Capital One Financial’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 18.89%.
Capital One Financial Company Profile (Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company operates as a bank holding company through Capital One, N.A., providing financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial customers.
Capital One is best known for its credit card business, which offers a range of consumer and business cards. Its other activities include consumer banking products such as checking and savings accounts, auto loans and retail banking services, as well as commercial banking services for businesses and institutions.
The company primarily serves customers in the United States through digital channels, branches and other distribution networks.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Capital One Financial Bloom Energy Just Reported—Its Biggest Order Is Still Waiting on a Pipeline Why Western Digital’s AI Storage Boom Defies the Chip Sell-Off Grand Canyon Education Strengthens Its Outlook, But Wall Street Remains Divided Amex Stock Slides on Job Cuts, But the Real Story Is Macro
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Capital One Financial is rated Buy at $202, driven by long-term value from the Discover acquisition and synergy potential. COF's Q3 results were strong, but normalized provisions and credit losses remain key risks, especially in a downturn. The Discover network integration offers cost savings and revenue upside, though interchange fee litigation and international acceptance pose headwinds.
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Stock to Watch: Capital One (COF - Free Report) Headquartered in McLean, VA, Capital One Financial Corporation was established in 1994. and primarily focuses on consumer and commercial lending, as well as deposit origination. The company offers a wide range of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the United States through its banking and non-banking subsidiaries.
COF is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Finance stock. COF has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 5.4% over the past four weeks.
Six analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.38 to $20.67 per share. COF also boasts an average earnings surprise of +8%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, COF should be on investors' short list.
Carnegie Investment Counsel decreased its holdings in shares of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) by 21.1% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 11,721 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 3,138 shares during the quarter. Carnegie Investment Counsel’s holdings in Capital One Financial were worth $2,263,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
A number of other hedge funds have also added to or reduced their stakes in COF. Solstein Capital LLC bought a new stake in Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter worth about $26,000. Gilpin Wealth Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of Capital One Financial during the 3rd quarter worth about $27,000. Ballast Advisors LLC acquired a new position in shares of Capital One Financial during the 1st quarter worth about $27,000. Pension & Wealth Management Advisors Inc. bought a new position in shares of Capital One Financial in the 2nd quarter valued at about $31,000. Finally, Frazier Financial Advisors LLC bought a new position in shares of Capital One Financial in the 1st quarter valued at about $29,000. Institutional investors own 89.84% of the company’s stock.
Insider Buying and Selling
In related news, insider Ravi Raghu sold 9,726 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, July 31st. The shares were sold at an average price of $209.78, for a total value of $2,040,320.28. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 26,328 shares in the company, valued at approximately $5,523,087.84. This trade represents a 26.98% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, insider Lia Dean sold 1,887 shares of Capital One Financial stock in a transaction dated Thursday, October 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total value of $369,587.82. Following the transaction, the insider owned 59,308 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $11,616,064.88. The trade was a 3.08% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold 37,664 shares of company stock worth $7,914,162 in the last 90 days. 0.78% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades
COF has been the topic of a number of recent research reports. TD Cowen lifted their target price on Capital One Financial from $242.00 to $250.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday. Wall Street Zen lowered Capital One Financial from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Sunday, August 2nd. BTIG Research increased their price target on Capital One Financial from $224.00 to $259.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 30th. Barclays raised their price target on Capital One Financial from $237.00 to $238.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research note on Wednesday. Finally, HSBC upgraded Capital One Financial from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and raised their price target for the company from $226.00 to $229.00 in a research note on Sunday, July 12th. Nineteen research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $256.32.
Read Our Latest Report on Capital One Financial
Key Headlines Impacting Capital One Financial
Here are the key news stories impacting Capital One Financial this week:
Positive Sentiment: Capital One reported adjusted earnings of $6.69 per share, above the roughly $5.45–$5.50 analyst consensus, while revenue reached approximately $16.3 billion, up about 6% year over year. Net income rose to $3.54 billion, helping drive the favorable market reaction. Capital One Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Positive Sentiment: Profitability trends improved: net interest margin expanded to 8.41%, pre-provision earnings increased, and the provision for credit losses declined from the prior quarter. Domestic credit-card net charge-offs also improved to 3.98%. Capital One Reports $3.5 Billion Q3 Profit
Positive Sentiment: Management said the Discover acquisition is progressing ahead of schedule, with annualized synergies reported at approximately $1.8 billion. Investors also noted share repurchases and continued growth in Global Payment Network transaction volume. Capital One Q3 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive Sentiment: JPMorgan raised its COF price target from $227 to $241 and assigned an overweight rating. BMO also lifted its target from $219 to $225, though it retained a market perform rating, signaling upside potential but some analyst caution.
Neutral Sentiment: Capital One plans to increase marketing and network investment to compete more aggressively, which could support long-term growth but may pressure near-term expenses. Capital One Will Step Up Marketing
Negative Sentiment: Credit metrics were mixed: credit-card delinquencies of 30 days or more increased to 3.74%. In addition, several insiders have sold shares recently, although at least one transaction was conducted under a pre-arranged trading plan.
Capital One Financial Stock Performance
NYSE COF opened at $205.98 on Thursday. The company has a current ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39. The firm’s fifty day moving average price is $207.03 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $200.80. Capital One Financial Corporation has a 1 year low of $174.24 and a 1 year high of $259.64. The firm has a market capitalization of $126.37 billion, a P/E ratio of 9.70, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.97 and a beta of 1.04.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, October 20th. The financial services provider reported $6.69 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $5.53 by $1.16. Capital One Financial had a net margin of 13.70% and a return on equity of 11.54%. The firm had revenue of $16.31 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $16.25 billion. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $5.95 earnings per share. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 6.4% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, research analysts anticipate that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.36 EPS for the current year.
Capital One Financial Dividend Announcement
The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Stockholders of record on Monday, August 17th were issued a $0.80 dividend. This represents a $3.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.6%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. Capital One Financial’s dividend payout ratio is presently 19.80%.
Capital One Financial Company Profile
(Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company operates as a bank holding company through Capital One, N.A., providing financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial customers.
Capital One is best known for its credit card business, which offers a range of consumer and business cards. Its other activities include consumer banking products such as checking and savings accounts, auto loans and retail banking services, as well as commercial banking services for businesses and institutions.
The company primarily serves customers in the United States through digital channels, branches and other distribution networks.
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Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COF? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report).
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Capital One Financial (COF +2.53%) was an investor darling after reporting its latest quarterly earnings. Market players were cheered by numerous positive developments at the sprawling financial services company, famous for the assertive marketing of its credit cards and the cafes stuffed inside its bank branches.
The company crushed analyst estimates for profitability and notched a more modest beat on revenue. Here's an overview of the quarter, and whether it makes Capital One stock look like a smart buy now.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Capital gainsCapital One's third quarter saw the company earn $16.3 billion in revenue for a respectable (6%) year-over-year improvement. Net income, not under generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP, or adjusted), rose at a slightly higher 7% pace to nearly $4.1 billion, or $6.69 per share.
On average, analysts tracking Capital One stock were modeling just under $16.3 billion in revenue and only $5.50 per share in adjusted net profit.
The company is basically a payment card issuer that also runs a considerable commercial and consumer banking operation. The former activity accounted for almost 75% of revenue in the quarter and performed well, driven by a surge in total purchase volume by cardholders -- which rose 11% to nearly $255 billion.
A major factor in this double-digit rise is what Capital One calls its "debit conversion." In May 2025, the company closed its splashy acquisition of payment card company Discover Financial Services. A key reason for the buy was the company's proprietary payment-processing infrastructure, which takes a small fee on every purchase to provide these services. Before this, Capital One's legacy checking account debit card transactions were routed through the networks of Visa (V +0.32%) and Mastercard (MA +0.35%). The company has completed the rebadging and rerouting of these cards through its own network; the fees it reaps from this have helped lift overall revenue.
Small but strongAlthough the banking side of Capital One is notably smaller, it still matters to the company's fortunes. Happily, the bulk of that operation -- consumer banking -- did very well in the third quarter. In fact, it posted the highest revenue growth rate of the company's primary and secondary business units. Its top line expanded by 17% year over year, to $3.3 billion.
A lender depends on its loan book, of course, and Capital One successfully boosted its own. Ending loans held for investment (as opposed to sale) leaped 13% higher to just over $94 billion. Much of this consists of auto loans; originations in the category accelerated by 22% to $13 billion.
This raises a concern, however, as loan growth often stalls when interest rates rise, as was the case following the Federal Reserve's rate hike at the end of September.
The smaller commercial banking unit delivered a flat performance, contrasting unfavorably with its big brother. Total revenue went sideways at $901 million, even though period-end loans held for investment increased by 4% to $92.1 billion.
$206.66+$5.10 (+2.53%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26
The integration situationIn the earnings call discussing the results, Capital One management emphasized the progress it's making with Discover. All told, according to the company, synergies between that business and its current owner have reached an annualized figure of $1.8 billion.
Discover, which was a huge standalone business for many years, was never going to be a quick or easy operation to subsume within Capital One. Thus far, total integration costs have exceeded $2.8 billion, so it's good that this comprises much of what's likely to be the total. In the near future, such spending should taper off considerably before falling to zero, an event management is expecting by 2028. In the third quarter, Discover integration expenses totaled $338 million. Once this cost item is eliminated, profitability should rise at impressive rates.
Although the U.S. economy has been experiencing its fits and starts, Capital One is navigating the environment rather nimbly. This is evidenced by those impressive double-digit growth rates of the two stars of the third quarter, credit cards and consumer lending. With these businesses motoring along and a major cost item set to decline significantly before long, Capital One stock looks like a fine mid- to long-term investment in the financial sector.
Eligible new Capital One Venture X Business cardholders can earn up to $4,300 in travel value across bonus miles and credits through Capital One Business Travel
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Yesterday, Capital One announced a limited time offer for eligible new Capital One Venture X Business cardholders as part of its ongoing celebration of the card's third anniversary.
For a limited time starting on October 20, 2026, eligible new Venture X Business cardholders can earn up to $4,300 in travel value across bonus miles and credits through Capital One Business Travel. New cardholders can earn 150,000 miles ($1,500 value) after spending $40,000 within the first four months of account opening and an additional 150,000 ($1,500 value) miles and a $1,000 Capital One Business Travel credit after spending $120,000 within the first four months of account opening. This is in addition to the $300 annual Capital One Business Travel credit cardholders receive regardless of their spend.
Additionally, cardholders can receive their fourth night free at select Premier and Lifestyle Collection hotels when they book a stay of at least four nights through Capital One Business Travel, a complimentary travel booking platform designed specifically for business owners.
This offer gives customers the flexibility and opportunity to unlock more value, in addition to the 10X elevated earn, when booking travel through Capital One Business Travel through the end of 2026 and into 2027. As business owners prepare to close out the year and plan for future growth, these rewards help turn everyday business spending into future travel opportunities.
“Travel plays an important role in how many businesses build relationships, pursue opportunities and drive growth,” said Ami Vedak, Managing Vice President, Capital One Business. “By turning business spending into meaningful travel rewards, cardholders can reinvest value back into their businesses, pursue new opportunities and enjoy the premium benefits and flexibility that Venture X Business delivers.”
This offer is in addition to the recent limited time offer launched Sept. 30 for eligible existing cardholders.
A Premium Business Travel Card Built for Growing Businesses
Venture X Business is designed for business owners who want premium travel benefits paired with straightforward rewards.
In addition to the limited time offer, primary cardholders earn:
Unlimited 2X miles on every purchase, everywhere 10X miles on hotels and rental cars booked through Capital One Business Travel 5X miles on flights and vacation rentals booked through Capital One Business Travel A fourth night free at select Premier and Lifestyle Collection hotels when booking an eligible stay of four nights or more through Capital One Business Travel A $300 annual travel credit A 10,000-mile anniversary bonus Complimentary access to Capital One Lounges and Capital One Landings No preset spending limit, providing purchasing power that adapts to business needs $395 annual fee Cardholders also have complimentary access to Capital One Business Travel, an all-in-one travel management platform which enables businesses to save time and money, make booking easy for employees, and earn rewards at no additional cost.
Key Details About the Venture X Business Limited Time Offers
Applicants approved during the promotional period are eligible to earn the bonus rewards upon meeting the applicable spending requirements within the first four months of account opening. Other Capital One Business cardholders may apply for Venture X Business and receive the welcome offer if approved.
For more information, please visit www.capitalone.com/small-business/credit-cards/venture-x-business/
For additional business card options, please visit www.capitalone.com/small-business/credit-cards/
About Capital One Business
Capital One offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients. Capital One Business offers a diverse suite of financial products, tools and services designed specifically for small businesses, including credit cards with unlimited rewards and banking products and services. Capital One Business is committed to fueling the courageous entrepreneurial spirit that's at the heart of American small businesses. We are focused on listening to and learning from the millions of businesses we serve every day to make sure our products, services and experiences work as hard as they do.
For more information, visit www.capitalone.com, https://www.capitalone.com/small-business/homepage/ and www.capitalone.com/about/newsroom/.
A routine income update prompt turned a retiree's $25,000 credit limit into $6,000 overnight, and the number she typed was technically correct. What she left out made all the difference.
Higher profit and revenue supported the rally, while charge-offs and integration spending remain material. Summary
Earnings improved, but credit costs and acquisition adjustments still separate reported profit from underlying performance.
Consumer lender Capital One COF advanced to $210.04, up approximately 4.21% Wednesday morning, compared with $210.26 at 11.20 a.m. ET, after reporting higher third-quarter profit as its Discover integration continued. According to The Wall Street Journal, quarterly net income reached $3.54 billion, versus $3.19 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share climbed to $5.61 from $4.83. The profit engine is growing. Integration costs remain part of the equation.
Capital One reported adjusted earnings of $6.69 per share and revenue of $16.3 billion, up 3% from the previous quarter. Credit costs deserve attention, too. Its $2.9 billion provision reflected $3.1 billion in net charge-offs, partly offset by a $225 million reserve release. That release cushioned the provision; it did not erase the underlying loan losses.
The valuation graphic puts the shares 13.11% above the $185.69 GF Value estimate, suggesting investors are already paying a premium for the earnings outlook. Meanwhile, the $1.08 gap between adjusted and reported earnings keeps integration expenses and acquisition accounting in focus. The next test is straightforward: turn the Discover combination into lasting earnings gains while keeping credit losses under control. A rising share price makes execution more important.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Key Takeaways Capital One's Q3 adjusted earnings rose 12% to $6.69 per share, beating estimates.COF's NII rose 4% to $12.89 billion, while net interest margin expanded 5 bps to 8.41%.Capital One's NCOs fell 10%, but provisions rose 7%, while share buybacks totaled $2.6 billion.
Capital One Financial’s (COF - Free Report) third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $6.69 per share significantly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.45. The bottom line was up 12% from the prior-year quarter.
Results benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. Loan growth and improvement in net interest margin (NIM) were other upsides. However, higher expenses, an increase in provisions and a sequential decline in deposits were headwinds.
Results excluded acquisition-related amortization expenses and Discover Financial and Brex integration costs. Including these, net income available to common stockholders (GAAP basis) was $3.42 billion, or $5.61 per share, up from $3.09 billion, or $4.83 per share, in the year-ago quarter.
Capital One’s Revenues Increase, Expenses RiseTotal revenues jumped 6% year over year to $16.34 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.11 billion.
NII was $12.89 billion, up 4% from the prior-year quarter. NIM expanded 5 basis points (bps) to 8.41%, primarily reflecting lower rates paid on retail deposits, which largely offset reduced asset yields.
Non-interest income was $3.46 billion, rising 17% year over year. This was driven by higher net discount and interchange fees and other income, partly offset by lower service charges and other customer-related fees.
Non-interest expenses were $8.86 billion, up 7%. The increase reflected higher salaries and associate benefits, occupancy and equipment costs, marketing expenses, and communications and data-processing costs.
The efficiency ratio was 54.19%, up from 53.80% in the prior-year quarter. A rise in the efficiency ratio indicates lower profitability.
As of Sept. 30, 2026, loans held for investment were $462.53 billion, up 1% from the prior quarter. Total deposits were $480.7 billion, down 1% sequentially.
COF’s Credit Quality ImprovesNet charge-offs (NCOs) were $3.12 billion, falling 10% year over year. The allowance for credit losses, as a percentage of loans held for investment, was 4.92%, down 29 bps.
The 30-plus-day performing delinquency rate was 3.18%, down 21 bps year over year. The 30-plus-day delinquency rate was 3.41%, down 9 bps. The quarter included a $225-million loan reserve release, primarily driven by favorable credit performance in Domestic Card.
However, provision for credit losses was $2.92 billion, increasing 7% year over year.
COF’s Capital Ratios DeclineAs of Sept. 30, 2026, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.8%, down from 14.4% in the prior-year quarter. The Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.6%, down from 15.5% a year ago.
Capital One’s Share Repurchase UpdateDuring the reported quarter, Capital One repurchased 12.6 million shares for $2.6 billion, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $7.9 billion.
Our Viewpoint on Capital OneStrategic expansion efforts, demand for consumer loans, favorable changes in interest rates and steady improvement in the card business are expected to support Capital One well for long-term growth. The integration of Discover is progressing, while the acquisition of Brex is expected to strengthen its credit card operations. However, elevated expenses and a tough macroeconomic backdrop are major near-term concerns.
Currently, Capital One carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance and Earnings Expectations of COF’s PeersAlly Financial’s (ALLY - Free Report) third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.32. The bottom line improved from $1.15 in the year-ago quarter.
Results benefited from growth in net financing revenues, stable other revenues and lower expenses. However, a rise in provisions acted as an undermining factor.
Navient (NAVI - Free Report) is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on Nov. 4.
In the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Navient’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 16 cents. This indicates a 44.8% decline from the prior-year quarter.
Key Takeaways Capital One's Q3 adjusted EPS of $6.69 beat estimates, with revenues rising 6% year over year to $16.34B.Discover integration delivered $1.8B in annualized synergies, while network transaction volume surged 25%.COF plans higher marketing spending in 2027 as credit quality improves and network expansion advances.
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF - Free Report) emphasized progress on Discover integration, improving credit performance and increased investment in growth opportunities during its third-quarter 2026 earnings call.
Management maintained confidence in the acquisition's earnings potential while outlining higher marketing expenditures, network expansion priorities and potential interchange revenue pressures. Adjusted earnings and revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, providing support for management's discussion of underlying earnings power.
COF Sees Discover Synergies Ahead of ScheduleChairman and CEO Richard Fairbank said Discover integration continues to progress well, with combined synergies materializing ahead of schedule.
Year-to-date results reflected approximately $1.8 billion in annualized synergies, supported by debit network conversion and expense reductions.
Fairbank indicated that the acquisition's underlying earnings power is becoming visible. However, he cautioned that reserve releases and increased marketing expenditures require consideration when assessing sustainable profitability.
Capital One Plans Higher Marketing InvestmentsFairbank expects marketing investments to increase further in 2027, reflecting stronger origination opportunities and intensifying competition.
The company plans to expand marketing for Discover products, premium credit cards and national banking. These businesses require substantial customer acquisition spending but offer lower credit risk and recurring revenues.
During the Barclays Q&A, Fairbank defended the spending strategy, emphasizing long-term customer economics rather than immediate accounting returns. Marketing expenses increased 14% year over year to approximately $1.6 billion during the quarter.
COF Outlines Discover's Growth StrategyFairbank acknowledged continued contraction in Discover's credit card portfolio, with outstanding balances declining approximately 3% year over year.
The contraction reflects the temporary restrictions on Discover loan growth as Capital One adjusts the acquired portfolio. Excluding Discover, ending Domestic Card loans increased around 6%.
Fairbank emphasized that Discover-branded cards remain central to network expansion. The company also plans to originate Capital One cards on the Discover Network and selectively convert existing customers, with the timing informed by ongoing tests.
Capital One Addresses Network Revenue PressuresFairbank highlighted Discover's payment network as a central strategic asset following the successful migration of Capital One debit customers.
Global payment network transaction volume increased 25% year over year to approximately $191 billion. Credit card migration will proceed gradually alongside investments in network acceptance.
During the Barclays discussion, Fairbank addressed potential revenue reductions from the proposed Visa and Mastercard settlement. Management expects remaining acquisition synergies to roughly offset the anticipated interchange revenue impact, although the eventual amount remains uncertain.
COF Highlights Improving Credit Quality and EarningsFairbank described credit performance as strong, supported by improving delinquency trends and recoveries.
Domestic Card's net charge-off rate declined 65 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.98%, while the delinquency rate decreased 15 bps to 3.74%. CFO Andrew Young reported a $225 million allowance release.
Adjusted earnings were $6.69 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.45 by $1.24. Revenues totaled $16.34 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.11 billion by $230 million. Revenues increased approximately 6% year over year.
Capital One Advances Brex and AI PrioritiesFairbank described Brex as an important technology-driven acquisition, highlighting opportunities across corporate spending, banking services and travel management.
During the JPMorgan discussion, he explained that integration will proceed selectively to preserve Brex's operating momentum. Initial benefits include lower funding costs and customer referrals.
Management also emphasized continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Responding to Wells Fargo, Fairbank said AI could transform underwriting, fraud detection, software development and customer servicing, but declined to quantify its financial contribution.
COF Maintains Focus on Long-Term Earnings PowerManagement's overarching message centered on balancing integration benefits with continuing investments in technology, customer acquisition and payment infrastructure.
Fairbank maintained confidence in the company's earnings capacity without providing specific profitability targets. Future results will reflect additional investments, evolving credit conditions and remaining acquisition benefits.
COF Zacks Rank and Style Scores SignalCapital One currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating a neutral near-term outlook. Its Value Score of A reflects attractive valuation characteristics, while its Momentum Score of A indicates favorable price momentum. The Growth Score of C signals comparatively moderate growth characteristics.You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The company's VGM Score of A reflects a favorable combination of value, growth and momentum attributes. However, the Zacks framework emphasizes stronger combinations involving Rank #1 or #2 (Buy) stocks. Capital One's current Rank warrants a measured assessment, and subsequent earnings estimate revisions could change its Zacks Rank following the quarterly results.
Capital One Financial outperformed Q3 expectations, with shares rising over 4% post-earnings amid sector weakness. COF's net interest margin hit a seven-year high at 8.41%, driven by asset yields rising faster than borrowing costs. Loan growth remains robust post-Discover acquisition, but deposit declines have pushed the loan-to-deposit ratio to a four-year high of 91%.
On its third quarter of 2026 earnings call, held on Oct. 20, 2026, Capital One (COF +0.87%) announced that Discover integration synergies reached $1.8 billion on an annualized basis. For long-term investors, the accelerated deal synergies demonstrate that post-merger earnings power is materializing faster than initially anticipated. Three key takeaways from management's comments highlight where the business is headed.
1. Discover Integration Synergies Are Exceeding Initial TimelinesCapital One is converting debit accounts and reducing costs faster than scheduled following the Discover transaction. Capturing efficiency gains early provides clear operational validation for the combination.
On a combined basis, we're achieving the expected synergies ahead of schedule. Our year-to-date results reflect about $1.8 billion of annualized combined synergies, primarily driven by the successful debit conversion early in 2026 and the pace of achieving expense synergies.
-- Richard Fairbank, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer2. Management Is Step-Scaling Marketing Spend Across Key Growth ChannelsDirect outreach serves as the primary growth engine rather than purchasing traditional physical bank networks. Ramping up acquisition investments across credit card products and national banking secures valuable long-term customer relationships.
Looking ahead, we expect to lean harder into marketing in 2027, driven by several factors. We're fully pursuing our origination opportunities, and the window is open across our businesses.
-- Richard Fairbank, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer3. Technology and AI Investments Strengthen Premium Customer FranchisesSustained technology funding supports real-time data processing and artificial intelligence, which means computer systems that automate complex risk assessment tasks. These capabilities help Capital One capture market share among premium spenders while maintaining credit discipline.
We continue to lean into investments in modern technology, data, and AI. We continue to gain traction as we build enduring franchises with heavy spenders at the top of the credit card marketplace and with primary banking relationships in our national retail bank.
-- Richard Fairbank, Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerLooking AheadPost-merger earnings power is becoming clearly visible across all major operating segments, and management is not hiding its satisfaction with current momentum. Proprietary payment network rails, scaled cloud technology, and a low-cost national retail deposit base provide durable advantages while leadership monitors credit discipline.
You can squint your eyes and see it now in the first three quarters of 2026.
-- Richard Fairbank, Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerThe Motley Fool recommends Capital One Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Americká finanční společnost Capital One, která se po loňské akvizici společnosti Discover Financial Services stala jedním z největších vydavatelů kreditních karet v USA, včera po uzavření trhu oznámila své výsledky za třetí kvartál roku 2026. Očištěný zisk na akcii překonal očekávání analytiků, a to zejména díky výrazně nižší tvorbě opravných položek, než trh čekal, vyšší čisté úrokové marži a nižším než očekávaným nákladům na marketing.
Výsledky společnosti Capital One Financial (COF) za 3Q 2026 3Q 2026 Konsensus 3Q 2026 3Q 2025 Čisté výnosy (mld. USD) 16,34 16,25 15,36 Čistý zisk (mld. USD) 3,42 -- 3,09 Očištěný zisk na akcii (EPS, USD/akcie) 6,69 5,43 5,95 Výsledky za 3Q Čisté výnosy vzrostly mezikvartálně o 3 % na 16,34 mld. USD. V meziročním srovnání zaznamenaly růst o 6 %.
Čisté úrokové výnosy vzrostly meziročně i mezikvartálně o 4 % na 12,89 mld. USD. Konsensus činil 12,75 mld. USD. Neúrokové výnosy zaznamenaly meziroční růst o 17 % na 3,46 mld. USD. Očekávalo se 3,5 mld. USD. Mezikvartálně poklesly o 1 %.
Čistá úroková marže mezikvartálně vzrostla o 40 bazických bodů na 8,41 %, meziročně pak o 5 bazických bodů. Mezikvartální růst byl tažen vyšším výnosem z kartových úvěrů, nižšími průměrnými hotovostními zůstatky a vyšším počtem dní v kvartálu. Tržní konsensus přitom činil 8,24 %.
Náklady na riziko meziročně vzrostly o 7,4 % na 2,92 mld. USD. Trh odhadoval 3,64 mld. USD. Čisté odpisy úvěrů dosáhly 3,12 mld. USD při očekávání 3,41 mld. USD. Míra odpisů u kreditních karet klesla na 4,01 % z 4,71 % ve 2Q a 4,61 % ve 3Q 2025. Odhad trhu činil 4,27 %.
Neúrokové náklady zaznamenaly mezikvartální pokles o 2 % na 8,86 mld. USD (meziročně vzrostly o 7,2 %). Očekávalo se 9,0 mld. USD. Náklady na marketing vzrostly meziročně o 14 % na 1,59 mld. USD. Trh očekával 1,73 mld. USD.
Celkové vklady ke konci kvartálu mezikvartálně poklesly o 1 % na 480,7 mld. USD. Trh očekával 490,3 mld. USD.
Delikvence kreditních karet (30+ dní) dosáhla 3,74 %, tedy mezikvartálně o 35 bazických bodů více a meziročně o 15 bazických bodů méně. Očekávalo se 3,76 %.
Výsledky zatížily náklady na integraci společnosti Discover ve výši 338 mil. USD před zdaněním (dopad 0,42 USD na akcii) a náklady na integraci fintechu Brex ve výši 47 mil. USD (0,06 USD na akcii).
Komentář CEO „Integrace společnosti Discover nadále probíhá dobře a dosahujeme dobrého pokroku v naplňování očekávaných synergií,“ uvedl zakladatel, předseda představenstva a generální ředitel Richard D. Fairbank. „Nadále investujeme, abychom zajistili udržitelný růst a tvorbu hodnoty v dlouhodobém horizontu.“
Pohled analytiků Analytik David George z Baird uvedl, že lepší zisk před tvorbou opravných položek a daněmi byl tažen disciplinovanými výdaji na marketing a k překonání odhadů zisku na akcii přispěla úvěrová kvalita. Analytik oceňuje solidní výsledky, ale sezónně příznivý kvartál by nepřepočítával na celý rok, zvlášť když čekají vyšší výdaje na marketing a tlak na mezibankovní poplatky. Dodává, že dlouhodobá výdělková síla zůstává podle něj silná.
Analytik Richard Shane z JPMorgan uvedl, že společnost překonala odhady u tvorby opravných položek i čisté úrokové marže a synergie z akvizice se daří naplňovat rychleji, než se plánovalo.
Analytik Brian Foran z Truist uvedl, že ohledně výdělkové síly, kterou přinese dokončovaná integrace Discoveru, panuje velký optimismus. Poznamenal, že společnost rozpustila část rezerv, odpisy úvěrů byly pod běžnou úrovní a třetí kvartál bývá pro Capital One sezónně nejsilnější. Zisk na akcii podle něj solidně překonal odhady, a to i díky lepším nákladům a čisté úrokové marži.
Vývoj akcie Akcie společnosti Capital One Financial (COF) v předburzovní fázi obchodování posilují o 2,2 % na 206 USD.
Akcie Capital One Financial (COF) před výsledky na 201,56 USD Ukazatel Ukazatel Kapitalizace (mld. USD) 123,7 P/E 9,9 Vývoj za letošní rok (%) -16,8 Očekávané P/E 9,6 52týdenní minimum (USD) 174,2 Prům. cílová cena (USD) 253,6 52týdenní maximum (USD) 259,6 Dividendový výnos (%) 1,6 Zdroj: Capital One Financial, Bloomberg
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) today announced net income for the third quarter of 2026 of $3.5 billion, or $5.61 per diluted common share, compared with net income of $3.0 billion, or $4.73 per diluted common share in the second quarter of 2026, and with net income of $3.2 billion, or $4.83 per diluted common share in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted net income(1) for the third quarter of 2026 was $6.69 per diluted common share. "The Discover int.
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 20, 2026 5:00 PM EDT
Company Participants
Jeff Norris - Senior Vice President of Finance
Andrew Young - Chief Financial Officer
Richard Fairbank - Founder, Chairman, CEO & President
Conference Call Participants
Terry Ma - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division
Richard Shane - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
John Pancari - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
L. Erika Penala - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Donald Fandetti - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Bill Carcache - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Darrin Peller - Wolfe Research, LLC
Robert Wildhack - Autonomous Research US LP
Mihir Bhatia - BofA Securities, Research Division
Presentation
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q3 2026 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
Jeff Norris
Senior Vice President of Finance
Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome, everybody. To access the live webcast of this call, please go to the Investors section of Capital One's website, capitalone.com. A copy of the earnings presentation, press release and financial supplement can also be found in the Investors section of Capital One's website, capitalone.com, by selecting financials and then quarterly earnings releases.
With me tonight are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew are going to walk you through the presentation summarizing our third quarter results for 2026.
Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking
Capital One (COF - Free Report) reported $16.34 billion in revenue for the quarter ended September 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.4%. EPS of $6.69 for the same period compares to $5.95 a year ago.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.11 billion, representing a surprise of +1.47%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +22.75%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $5.45.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Capital One performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Average Balance - Total interest-earning assets: $612.52 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $612.48 billion.Net Charge-Off (Recovery) Rates - Total: 2.7% versus 2.9% estimated by three analysts on average.Efficiency Ratio (GAAP): 54.2% versus 56.4% estimated by three analysts on average.Net Interest Margin: 8.4% versus 8.3% estimated by three analysts on average.Net Charge-Off (Recovery) Rates - Consumer banking: 1.6% versus 1.6% estimated by two analysts on average.Net Charge-Off (Recovery) Rates - Credit Card - International card businesses: 5.7% compared to the 5% average estimate based on two analysts.Net Charge-Off (Recovery) Rates - Credit Card - Domestic credit card: 4% versus the two-analyst average estimate of 4.1%.Net Charge-Off (Recovery) Rates - Credit Card: 4% versus 4.1% estimated by two analysts on average.Total net revenue- Commercial Banking: $901 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $851.02 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -0.3%.Total net revenue- Domestic Card: $11.48 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $11.25 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +5.1%.Total net revenue- Credit Card: $12.15 billion versus $11.9 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +4.7% change.Total net revenue- Consumer Banking: $3.3 billion versus $3.13 billion estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +16.5% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Capital One here>>>
Shares of Capital One have returned -2.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.7% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
These 4 Earnings Reports Expose the Market’s Growing Economic DivideCapital One Financial NYSE: COF reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $3.5 billion, or $5.61 per diluted common share, as higher revenue and lower expenses lifted pre-provision earnings. Excluding adjustments related to its Discover and Brex acquisitions, earnings per share were $6.69, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Young said during the company’s earnings call.
Revenue increased 3% from the prior quarter while non-interest expense declined 2%, resulting in 10% growth in pre-provision earnings, or 9% on an adjusted basis. Period-end and average loans held for investment each rose 1% sequentially, while period-end and average deposits each fell 1%.
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Fiserv’s Debit Network Talks Raise a Bigger Question for Visa and MastercardCapital One’s provision for credit losses declined 2%, or $73 million, from the prior quarter to $2.9 billion. The provision included $3.1 billion of net charge-offs and a $225 million allowance release. The company’s allowance for credit losses ended the quarter at $22.7 billion, with its total portfolio coverage ratio declining 10 basis points to 4.92%.
Card business posts volume growth and improving charge-offs
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairbank said the domestic card business delivered another quarter of top-line growth and strong credit performance. Purchase volume grew 11% from a year earlier, led primarily by legacy Capital One volume. Brex and the transfer of a legacy corporate card portfolio provided a modest benefit to volume growth, while legacy Discover purchase volume was a modest drag.
Synchrony’s Comeback Is Hiding in Plain SightDiscover’s card loan-growth “brownout” continued during the quarter, with legacy Discover purchase volume essentially flat from a year earlier and legacy Discover card loans down about 3%. Excluding Discover, Capital One’s ending domestic card loans grew about 6%, while total ending balances increased approximately 2% year over year.
Domestic card revenue increased 5% from the third quarter of 2025, supported by higher legacy Capital One purchase volume and loan balances. The segment’s revenue margin was 17.8%.
The domestic card charge-off rate was 3.98%, down 73 basis points from the prior quarter and 65 basis points from a year earlier. Fairbank attributed the improvement to better delinquency trends during the first half of the year and strong recoveries performance. The quarter-end delinquency rate was 3.74%, up 35 basis points sequentially in line with normal seasonality but down 15 basis points year over year.
Domestic card non-interest expense increased 9% from a year earlier, reflecting technology investments, higher marketing spending and the Brex acquisition. Total company marketing expense reached about $1.6 billion, up 14% year over year, driven by direct marketing, media spending and investments in premium customer benefits.
Fairbank said Capital One expects the percentage growth in marketing from the third to fourth quarter to resemble the seasonal increase seen in the same period of 2025. He also said the company expects to “lean harder” into marketing in 2027 as it pursues growth opportunities, restarts Discover marketing and supports businesses including premium cards, Capital One Shopping and national banking.
Discover integration and network strategy
Capital One said it had achieved approximately $1.8 billion of annualized combined Discover synergies year to date, primarily from the debit-card conversion completed early in 2026 and expense savings. Fairbank said the company is achieving expected synergies ahead of schedule.
He said management views the remaining Discover synergies as roughly offsetting the anticipated impact of a proposed Visa and Mastercard merchant settlement, which Capital One is incorporating into its planning despite uncertainty around final court approval. The company expects the settlement’s potential reduction in interchange revenue to be broadly comparable to the remaining synergies yet to be realized.
Global Payment Network transaction volume was approximately $191 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, largely because Capital One converted its debit customers to the Discover Network. Fairbank said the company intends to grow Discover Network credit volume through Discover-branded cards, new Capital One cards issued on the network, and conversions of existing Capital One customers from other networks.
Unlike the debit conversion, the credit migration will not be a single large conversion, he said. Capital One is testing which customers and products to move and is working to expand acceptance and build the Discover brand.
On Discover’s loan-growth brownout, Fairbank said 100% of Discover card originations were on Capital One’s technology stack as of the end of September. The company expects to complete conversion of the existing Discover card portfolio in the first quarter. Discover card originations rose year over year during the quarter for the first time since the acquisition closed, although management expects loan balances to continue contracting for the next several quarters before returning to growth.
Consumer banking and commercial banking trends
Consumer banking ending loan balances rose about $11 billion, or 13%, from a year earlier, while average loans increased 12%. Auto originations climbed 22% year over year. Consumer banking revenue increased about 17%, primarily due to Discover revenue synergies and auto loan growth.
The auto charge-off rate was 1.59%, up 5 basis points from a year earlier and 16 basis points sequentially. Fairbank said the year-over-year increase largely reflected a gradual return of the company’s subprime origination mix to pre-pandemic levels. Auto delinquencies were 4.64%, up 32 basis points from the prior quarter but down 35 basis points year over year.
Consumer banking deposits declined about 1% from the prior quarter, in part due to Discover integration choices, including the sale of a small acquired IRA portfolio. Young said legacy Capital One retail deposits continued to grow.
In commercial banking, ending and average loans both increased about 1% sequentially, as did ending and average deposits. Revenue rose 6% from the prior quarter, supported by non-interest income growth. The commercial banking net charge-off rate was 0%, while criticized performing loans declined 4 basis points to 4.4% and criticized non-performing loans declined 10 basis points to 1.22%.
Margins, liquidity and capital
Capital One’s net interest margin expanded 40 basis points sequentially to 8.41%, driven by higher domestic card yield, a $13 billion reduction in average cash balances and an additional day in the quarter. Young said the structural effects of the Discover acquisition on margin have largely run their course, and future movements are expected to be influenced primarily by seasonality and changes in the relative growth of assets and liabilities.
Total liquidity reserves were about $134 billion at quarter-end, down $10 billion from the prior quarter. Cash declined by about $6 billion to approximately $49 billion, while the market value of investment securities fell by roughly $3 billion. Capital One’s preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio was 163%.
The company’s common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.8%, roughly unchanged from the second quarter. Net income was largely offset by $2.6 billion in share repurchases, dividends and business growth.
About Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF)Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company operates as a bank holding company through Capital One, N.A., providing financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial customers.
Capital One is best known for its credit card business, which offers a range of consumer and business cards. Its other activities include consumer banking products such as checking and savings accounts, auto loans and retail banking services, as well as commercial banking services for businesses and institutions.
The company primarily serves customers in the United States through digital channels, branches and other distribution networks.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
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Is Capital One Financial Corp (COF) Fairly Valued After Q3 Earnings Beat? EPS: $5.61, Revenue: $16.3B, GF Score: 89/100
Solid Financial Performance Amid Integration Challenges with Discover
Capital One Financial Corp COF released its 8-K filing on October 20, 2026, reporting a third-quarter net income of $3.5 billion, translating to $5.61 per diluted share. This marks an increase from both the preceding quarter and the same quarter of the previous year.
Capital One Financial is one of America's largest banks, originating primarily from credit cards and becoming the largest U.S. credit card issuer by purchase volume following its 2025 acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The Discover deal provided a proprietary global payments network, positioning Capital One uniquely in the market similar to American Express. The bank supports its Consumer Banking segment with auto lending, where it ranks as a top-tier lender, and operates a national digital banking model with a focus on cafés. Its Commercial Banking division caters to middle-market companies and commercial real estate, all rooted in data-driven underwriting that has defined the company since its 1994 founding by Richard Fairbank.
Performance Overview and ChallengesCapital One's third-quarter results illustrate a robust performance wherein total net revenue increased by 3% to $16.3 billion compared to the previous quarter. Notably, the adjusted net income rose significantly to $6.69 per diluted share. However, challenges remain with the integration of Discover, as noted by CEO Richard D. Fairbank:
The Discover integration continues to go well and we’re making good progress on delivering the expected synergies."This integration not only adds complexity to operations but also necessitates continuous investment to foster growth and deliver shareholder value.
The bank reported a decrease in the provision for credit losses, down by $73 million to $2.9 billion, showcasing a responsible lending approach that can mitigate risks associated with credit losses, especially within a dynamic economic landscape.
Financial AchievementsAmong Capital One's key financial achievements is a net interest margin of 8.41%, an increase of 40 basis points from the prior quarter. The efficiency ratio stood at 54.19%, reflecting a stable operational environment. The company also posted solid pre-provision earnings of $7.5 billion, underscoring its capacity to generate income, which is crucial for sustaining lending and absorbing potential credit losses.
The balance sheet indicates healthy growth, with loans held for investment increasing by $5.4 billion, or 1%, totaling $462.5 billion at quarter-end. Specific segments such as auto loans and consumer banking saw significant increases. Importantly, despite a 1% decrease in total deposits to $480.7 billion, Capital One's focus on credit card lending appears to be driving growth.
MetricQ3 2026Q2 2026Q3 2025Net Income$3.5 billion$3.0 billion$3.2 billionEarnings Per Share (EPS)$5.61$4.73$4.83Total Net Revenue$16.3 billion——Net Interest Margin8.41%——Provision for Credit Losses$2.9 billion——
Analysis of PerformanceOverall, Capital One Financial Corp COF exhibits a strong trajectory of earnings growth alongside a stable operational focus, especially in the face of integration challenges. The notable increases in net income and earnings per share, alongside efficient cost management, position the company favorably for future opportunities. However, investor sentiments may remain cautious due to ongoing adjustments following the Discover acquisition.
Moreover, fluctuations in deposit levels and provisions for credit losses could hint at potential volatility, depending on economic conditions. Continuous monitoring of credit quality and integration processes will be essential in the upcoming quarters.
GuruFocus Valuation CheckAccording to GuruFocus data, Capital One Financial Corp COF holds a GF Score of 89/100, indicating a strong outlook for the firm. However, the current market price of $201.56 is approximately 8.6% overvalued compared to the GF Value of $185.66. This suggests that investors may need to be cautious about making new purchases at this valuation level.
The company's profitability rank of 9/10 and growth rank of 10/10 highlight its strong performance in generating earnings and maintaining a robust growth trajectory. Nevertheless, the financial strength score of 3/10 indicates some risk associated with its financial stability. Insiders have been selling shares totaling $80.8 million over the past 12 months, which typically serves as a cautionary signal for investors as it may reflect a lack of confidence in immediate future growth.
For a deeper dive, visit the Capital One Financial Corp stock page on GuruFocus.
Explore the complete 8-K earnings release (here) from Capital One Financial Corp for further details.
GuruFocus context: GuruFocus’ GF Value™ estimates fair value near $185.66 (8.6% overvalued); its GF Score™ is 89/100; 33 gurus currently hold the stock, with 16 adding and 15 trimming positions in recent quarters — guru 13F data Simply Wall St and Morningstar don’t have. See the full Capital One Financial Corp COF research.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) posted its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after Tuesday's closing bell, easily beating consensus estimates. Here's a look at the details inside the report.
Capital One (COF - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $6.69 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.45 per share. This compares to earnings of $5.95 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +22.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this credit card issuer and bank would post earnings of $4.85 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.81, delivering a surprise of +19.79%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Capital One, which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Consumer Loans industry, posted revenues of $16.34 billion for the quarter ended September 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.47%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $15.36 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Capital One shares have lost about 17.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.4%.
What's Next for Capital One?While Capital One has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Capital One was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $4.88 on $16.47 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $20.36 on $63.67 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Financial - Consumer Loans is currently in the bottom 27% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Enova International (ENVA - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2026. The results are expected to be released on October 22.
This online financial services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $4.46 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +32.7%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Enova International's revenues are expected to be $1 billion, up 24.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Should You Invest in Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Before you invest in Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) insider Celia Karam sold 1,927 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, October 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total value of $377,422.22. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 55,774 shares of the company's stock,
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) insider Lia Dean sold 1,887 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, October 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $195.86, for a total transaction of $369,587.82. Following the transaction, the insider owned 59,308 shares in the company, valued at approximately $11,616,064.88. This trade
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Stock to Watch: Capital One (COF - Free Report) Headquartered in McLean, VA, Capital One Financial Corporation was established in 1994. and primarily focuses on consumer and commercial lending, as well as deposit origination. The company offers a wide range of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the United States through its banking and non-banking subsidiaries.
COF is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 9.55; value investors should take notice.
For fiscal 2026, six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.17 to $20.36 per share. COF boasts an average earnings surprise of +12.8%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, COF should be on investors' short list.
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Capital One and the Capital One Foundation, in partnership with Lever for Change, announced 10 finalists for Scaling Pathways to Homeownership.
Key Takeaways Capital One's Q3 earnings are expected to fall 8.4% year over year to $5.45, despite 4.9% revenue growth.COF's net interest income is projected to rise 2.5%, while interchange fees are expected to jump 23.3%.Higher credit loss provisions, marketing costs, and technology investments may pressure COF's profits.
Capital One (COF - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 20, after market close.
In the second quarter of 2026, COF’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher revenues, lower provisions, loan growth and net interest margin improvement. However, higher expenses and a sequential decline in deposits were the undermining factors.
The company’s to-be-reported quarter’s performance is expected to have been supported by its credit card business. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $16.11 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 4.9%.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised marginally higher to $5.45. Nonetheless, the estimate indicates an 8.4% fall from the prior-year quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COF does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged in the other two, with the average beat being 12.76%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors at Play for Capital One’s Q3 ResultsNet Interest Income (NII): The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at a hawkish stance going forward amid persistently higher inflation. Further, weakening consumer sentiment because of geopolitical and macro headwinds continued to dominate the third-quarter narrative.
The overall consumer lending scenario was subdued in the quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for consumer loans was weak. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total average earning assets is pegged at $612.5 billion, implying a 3.2% rise from the prior-year quarter.
These developments are likely to have adversely impacted Capital One’s NII growth in the to-be-reported quarter, while continued efforts to strengthen card operations are expected to have provided some support. The consensus estimate for NII of $12.71 billion indicates 2.5% year-over-year growth.
Fee income: Supported by a steady rise in credit card usage and the Discover Financial buyout, Capital One’s interchange fees (constituting more than 60% of fee income) are likely to have increased in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interchange fees is $2.23 billion, suggesting a 23.3% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for service charges and other customer-related fees of $855.4 million implies nearly a 1% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other non-interest income is pegged at $383.6 million, indicating a 30.5% surge.
Thus, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income of $3.45 billion indicates growth of 16.9% from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Capital One has been witnessing a persistent rise in expenses over the past several quarters due to higher marketing costs and investment in technology upgrades. This, along with the strategic acquisitions and inflation pressure, is expected to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the third quarter.
Asset Quality: Capital One is likely to have increased its provisions for credit losses in the third quarter amid elevated borrowing costs and sustained demand for credit card loans. Moreover, persistent inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict and oil price volatility, may have strained consumers’ financial health and repayment capacity, increasing the risk of delinquencies and credit losses.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for COFAccording to our quantitative model, the chances of Capital One beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Capital One is -0.02%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Capital One’s Price PerformanceIn the third quarter, COF shares declined 8.1% compared with the industry’s fall of 9.6%. Meanwhile, Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) stock has lost 13.5%, while Navient Corporation (NAVI - Free Report) has rallied 7.3%.
3Q26 Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ally Financial is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 numbers on Oct. 20, whereas Navient is set to report on Nov. 4.
Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ally Financial’s third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised lower to $1.32. The consensus estimate for Navient has been revised higher to 16 cents over the past seven days.
At present, ALLY carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), while NAVI sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Analysts on Wall Street project that Capital One (COF - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $5.45 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 8.4% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $16.11 billion, increasing 4.9% from the same quarter last year.
The current level reflects an upward revision of 0.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.
Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.
While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.
In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain Capital One metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Total net revenue- Commercial Banking' should come in at $851.02 million. The estimate points to a change of -5.9% from the year-ago quarter.
Analysts forecast 'Total net revenue- Credit Card- Domestic' to reach $11.25 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +3%.
The consensus estimate for 'Total net revenue- Credit Card' stands at $11.90 billion. The estimate points to a change of +2.5% from the year-ago quarter.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Total net revenue- Consumer Banking' should arrive at $3.13 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +10.5% year over year.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Efficiency Ratio' will reach 56.4%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 53.8%.
Analysts predict that the 'Average Balance - Total interest-earning assets' will reach $612.48 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $593.25 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Net charge-off rate' reaching 2.9%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3.2%.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Net Interest Margin' will reach 8.3%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 8.4%.
Analysts expect 'Net charge-off rate - Credit Card - International card businesses' to come in at 5.0%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 5.1% in the same quarter of the previous year.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Net charge-off rate - Credit Card' at 4.1%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 4.6% in the same quarter of the previous year.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Net charge-off rate - Credit Card - Domestic credit card' will likely reach 4.1%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 4.6%.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Net Interest Income' of $12.71 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $12.40 billion.
View all Key Company Metrics for Capital One here>>>
Shares of Capital One have experienced a change of -4.4% in the past month compared to the +1.4% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), COF is expected to mirror the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
The S&P 500 just celebrated a four-year bull run, but Jim Cramer says that headline number is hiding something much uglier beneath it. Bank stocks sit at the center of that tension, and their next earnings reports will either confirm…
The bull market that began in October 2022 turned four this week. Jim Cramer marked the anniversary on air by noting that the S&P 500 had gained 117% since the bottom, and in the same segment he argued that bonds, housing, and consumer stocks have already rolled over. “I would argue that either you’re in a bear market or you’re close to a bear market for most of the market,” Cramer said.
The data support both claims. An S&P 500 index fund is up 14.1% this year, but Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC | WFC Price Prediction) is down 9.13%, and Capital One (NYSE:COF) is down 16.02%, even after both posted strong second-quarter results.
That gap matters if you own bank stocks, because the largest U.S. lenders sit where every force Cramer described comes together. Their earnings show what higher rates are doing to borrowers, while their share prices reflect how differently investors are paying for that strength.
Why a Record Index Can Hide a Bear Market
The S&P 500 is weighted by company size, so the largest companies drive most of its return. A few giant winners can lift the index while the median stock falls.
That comes from the math of weighting. One trillion-dollar stock rising moves the index more than dozens of smaller stocks falling together.
Among the banks, Citigroup (NYSE:C) is up 14.76% this year, while Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is up just 0.82%. The broad financial sector fund has gained 1.73%.
Cost of Money Is Driving Everything Else
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.22% on October 8, and the 30-year hit 5.60%, up 0.35 percentage points in a month.
Cramer mentioned an 8% mortgage, which runs ahead of the published data. The national 30-year average is 7.40%, up 0.69 percentage points in a month and well above February’s 5.98% low.
Short rates are also rising. The fed funds upper bound is 4.00%, up 0.25% from a month ago.
Homeowners With Stocks and Renters With Balances Live in Different Economies
Higher mortgage payments freeze housing turnover. Existing home sales fell to a 3.98 million annual pace in August, which hurts brokers, movers and home-improvement retailers. Wells Fargo’s home lending revenue fell 7%.
A household that owns equities has compounded wealth through this period. A household that rents and carries a card balance pays an average APR of 21.19%.
Corporate earnings reflect that divide. Bank of America’s wealth unit posted record revenue, up 16%, while retailers that depend on financed purchases lose the customers who borrow to buy.
What Bank Earnings Will Confirm or Break
When banks report, watch net interest margin, credit provisions, loan growth, and deposit costs. Wells Fargo has guided to modest net interest margin compression in the third quarter.
Rising provisions and deposit costs that outpace loan yields would confirm Cramer’s bear view. Steady loan growth and flat provisions would contradict it.
So far the credit data look healthy. Capital One’s net charge-off rate fell to 3.23%, and it released $662 million in reserves.
The bullish argument is real, because employment has held and the four-year gains are large. If the 30-year yield falls and mortgages head back toward 6%, the market would likely expand into rate-sensitive sectors, and the bear thesis would no longer hold. Riding a four-year run while planning the exit is its own discipline, and we covered both sides in a free bubble survivor’s handbook.
How Bank Stocks Stack Up Against Cramer’s Bear Case
On the bull side, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) earned $7.70 per share, which included a one-time gain on an equity stake. Bank of America bought back $6.0 billion of stock, and Wells Fargo and Citigroup each trade near 10 times forward earnings. A positive yield curve at 0.44% supports lending spreads, and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) expanded its margin to 2.79%.
The bear case covers credit normalization, commercial real estate, deposit competition, and a consumer living on credit. JPMorgan’s chief executive warned, “It’s getting close to as good as it gets. We just don’t know how long it’s going to last.”
On this data, bank stocks look reasonably placed, and the diversified universal banks appear stronger than card-heavy lenders. Their fee income, buybacks, and roughly 10x forward valuations give them a buffer that the rest of the market Cramer described lacks.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
NorthCrest Asset Manangement LLC grew its holdings in shares of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) by 21.4% during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 89,494 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after buying an additional 15,757 shares during the quarter. NorthCrest Asset Manangement LLC’s holdings in Capital One Financial were worth $16,229,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Perpetual Ltd increased its stake in Capital One Financial by 144.1% during the third quarter. Perpetual Ltd now owns 13,670 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $2,639,000 after acquiring an additional 8,070 shares during the last quarter. Scott Capital Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in Capital One Financial during the third quarter valued at approximately $226,000. Armstrong Advisory Group Inc. raised its position in Capital One Financial by 235.3% during the third quarter. Armstrong Advisory Group Inc. now owns 11,253 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $2,173,000 after purchasing an additional 7,897 shares during the period. Marquette Asset Management LLC lifted its stake in shares of Capital One Financial by 584.2% in the 3rd quarter. Marquette Asset Management LLC now owns 691 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $133,000 after purchasing an additional 590 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Gilpin Wealth Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial in the 3rd quarter valued at approximately $27,000. 89.84% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades COF has been the subject of a number of recent research reports. BTIG Research lifted their target price on Capital One Financial from $224.00 to $259.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 30th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a $245.00 price target on Capital One Financial in a report on Thursday, August 20th. BMO Capital Markets started coverage on Capital One Financial in a research report on Friday. They issued a “market perform” rating and a $219.00 price target for the company. Wolfe Research lifted their price objective on shares of Capital One Financial from $255.00 to $275.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 25th. Finally, UBS Group lifted their price objective on shares of Capital One Financial from $275.00 to $280.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Monday, August 3rd. Twenty investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $255.04.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on COF Capital One Financial Stock Performance Shares of NYSE:COF opened at $200.93 on Tuesday. The firm has a market cap of $123.27 billion, a PE ratio of 12.43, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.73 and a beta of 1.04. The firm’s 50 day simple moving average is $209.83 and its 200-day simple moving average is $199.88. Capital One Financial Corporation has a one year low of $174.24 and a one year high of $259.64. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a current ratio of 1.02.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, July 21st. The financial services provider reported $5.81 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $4.79 by $1.02. The business had revenue of $15.83 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.76 billion. Capital One Financial had a return on equity of 11.28% and a net margin of 13.37%. The business’s revenue was up 26.9% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned $5.48 EPS. As a group, equities analysts predict that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.33 EPS for the current year.
Capital One Financial Announces Dividend The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Investors of record on Monday, August 17th were paid a $0.80 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.6%. Capital One Financial’s dividend payout ratio is 19.80%.
Insider Activity at Capital One Financial In other Capital One Financial news, insider Michael Zamsky sold 5,473 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $218.02, for a total transaction of $1,193,223.46. Following the transaction, the insider owned 27,992 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $6,102,815.84. This trade represents a 16.35% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, CAO Timothy Golden sold 3,487 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, July 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $211.00, for a total transaction of $735,757.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief accounting officer owned 7,429 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,567,519. This represents a 31.94% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders sold 33,850 shares of company stock worth $7,167,152 over the last quarter. Corporate insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock.
Capital One Financial Company Profile (Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company provides credit cards, consumer banking products, auto financing and commercial banking services through its Capital One brand.
Capital One offers credit cards for consumers and businesses, checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, personal loans and auto loans. Its commercial banking operations serve businesses, institutions and commercial real estate clients with lending, deposit, treasury management and other financial services.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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Capital One (COF - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 20. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis credit card issuer and bank is expected to post quarterly earnings of $5.43 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -8.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $16.12 billion, up 5% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.01% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Capital One?For Capital One, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.50%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that Capital One will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Capital One would post earnings of $4.85 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.81, delivering a surprise of +19.79%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Capital One appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Diversified Management Inc. acquired a new position in shares of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 14,480 shares of the financial services provider’s stock, valued at approximately $2,796,000.
Several other large investors have also added to or reduced their stakes in COF. Green Ridge Wealth Planning LLC grew its holdings in Capital One Financial by 166.4% during the 3rd quarter. Green Ridge Wealth Planning LLC now owns 4,763 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $920,000 after buying an additional 2,975 shares in the last quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Capital One Financial by 118.9% during the 3rd quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC now owns 43,957 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $8,487,000 after acquiring an additional 23,873 shares during the period. CoreCap Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Capital One Financial by 30.7% during the 3rd quarter. CoreCap Advisors LLC now owns 1,670 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $322,000 after acquiring an additional 392 shares during the period. Apella Capital LLC lifted its stake in Capital One Financial by 326.8% in the 3rd quarter. Apella Capital LLC now owns 8,434 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,628,000 after purchasing an additional 6,458 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Everhart Financial Group Inc. lifted its stake in Capital One Financial by 90.0% in the 3rd quarter. Everhart Financial Group Inc. now owns 10,262 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,981,000 after purchasing an additional 4,860 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 89.84% of the company’s stock.
Analyst Ratings Changes A number of research firms have recently commented on COF. Barclays reduced their price target on shares of Capital One Financial from $240.00 to $237.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Monday. Wolfe Research increased their price objective on Capital One Financial from $255.00 to $275.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 25th. Bank of America lowered their price target on Capital One Financial from $234.00 to $231.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Thursday, July 9th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a $245.00 price target on Capital One Financial in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered Capital One Financial from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Sunday, August 2nd. Twenty equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and four have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $257.77.
View Our Latest Stock Analysis on COF Insider Activity at Capital One Financial In other Capital One Financial news, insider Michael Zamsky sold 5,473 shares of the stock in a transaction on Monday, August 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $218.02, for a total transaction of $1,193,223.46. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 27,992 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $6,102,815.84. This represents a 16.35% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. Also, General Counsel Matthew W. Cooper sold 3,500 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, October 6th. The shares were sold at an average price of $196.22, for a total transaction of $686,770.00. Following the transaction, the general counsel directly owned 79,694 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $15,637,556.68. This trade represents a 4.21% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold a total of 33,850 shares of company stock worth $7,167,152 over the last three months. Corporate insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock.
Capital One Financial Trading Up 1.7% Shares of COF opened at $199.32 on Friday. The firm has a market cap of $122.28 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.33, a PEG ratio of 0.72 and a beta of 1.04. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a current ratio of 1.02. Capital One Financial Corporation has a fifty-two week low of $174.24 and a fifty-two week high of $259.64. The firm has a 50 day moving average price of $210.37 and a 200-day moving average price of $199.66.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Tuesday, July 21st. The financial services provider reported $5.81 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $4.79 by $1.02. The company had revenue of $15.83 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $15.76 billion. Capital One Financial had a net margin of 13.37% and a return on equity of 11.28%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 26.9% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $5.48 EPS. As a group, equities research analysts forecast that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.33 earnings per share for the current year.
Capital One Financial Dividend Announcement The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Investors of record on Monday, August 17th were issued a dividend of $0.80 per share. The ex-dividend date was Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.20 annualized dividend and a yield of 1.6%. Capital One Financial’s dividend payout ratio is currently 19.80%.
(Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company provides credit cards, consumer banking products, auto financing and commercial banking services through its Capital One brand.
Capital One offers credit cards for consumers and businesses, checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, personal loans and auto loans. Its commercial banking operations serve businesses, institutions and commercial real estate clients with lending, deposit, treasury management and other financial services.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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Capital One paid $390 million for missing suspicious transactions, then got sued for closing accounts when its monitors caught something. The trap banks now face reveals a regulatory system working against itself.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
American banks are caught between two kinds of punishment. If they miss dirty money, regulators fine them. If they flag it and close the account, they get sued for debanking. Capital One (NYSE:COF | COF Price Prediction) has paid on both sides, and its record shows which way the pressure is moving.
Federal law requires banks to run anti-money-laundering programs that monitor for suspicious transactions. When flagged, banks file a suspicious activity report to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). Closing an account over that suspicion can trigger debanking lawsuits.
Cost of Missing It According to Moneywise, FinCEN hit Capital One with a $390,000,000 penalty on Jan. 15, 2021, for willfully failing to maintain an effective anti-money-laundering program. Moneywise reports that the bank admitted it failed to file thousands of suspicious activity reports from 2008 through 2014 tied to its Check Cashing Group. The money involved was linked to organized crime, tax evasion and fraud.
Cost of Catching It Moneywise reports that Capital One closed 385 accounts associated with Donald Trump in 2021 after flagging activity characteristic of money laundering. The closures became public through a lawsuit filed by Trump’s trust, his companies and Eric Trump.
The suit says the bank acted for political reasons after the Jan. 6 backlash. The accounts covered a winery, a bottled-water company and a golf course developer. Moneywise says Capital One’s lawyers wrote in a July 31 filing that the closures “were the result of months of analysis and a careful review by Capital One’s AML team in accordance with bank policies and regulatory guidance.”
The filing also says the bank can close any account at any time, for any reason or none, without notice. Trump has also sued JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), which says it closes accounts that create legal or regulatory risk.
A bank already punished for missing too much has every reason to flag too much. The screening system regulators demand will sometimes catch someone powerful, and then the bank gets sued.
Debanking Data Most People Never See According to Moneywise, a Reuters review of 8,361 account closure complaints filed with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over 13 years found that fewer than 1% alleged political or religious discrimination. A Cato Institute study found most debanking stems from government pressure. Moneywise reports the FDIC privately asked more than 20 institutions in 2022 and 2023 to pause crypto activity. Operation Choke Point in 2013 started with fraudulent businesses and spread to payday lenders, gun shops and licensed cannabis dispensaries, according to Moneywise.
Washington Just Changed Direction FinCEN filed notices Monday pulling two proposed crypto reporting rules. One reverses the agency’s 2023 finding that international crypto mixing is a primary money laundering concern, according to Unchained. The notices will be published in the Federal Register on Oct. 6, according to Unchained. FinCEN cited commenters’ warnings that the rules would chill legitimate activity and create heavy reporting loads.
What to Do If Your Bank Shows You the Door Automated systems flag patterns like structuring (splitting deposits to avoid the $10,000 reporting threshold). Banks cannot disclose whether they filed a suspicious activity report. The CFPB says companies typically cite suspicious account activity when closing accounts. If it happens to you, request written closure, get your balance by check, pull your ChexSystems report and file a CFPB complaint.
Where the Pressure Goes Next Policy is shifting toward more account access and less surveillance, but the 2021 penalty remains, so compliance teams will stay cautious, according to Moneywise. The key question is how courts rule on Capital One’s claim that it can close any account at will. If the Trump suit proceeds, banks face real costs from both directions. Capital One shares are down 20.53% year to date.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Capital One transforms post-Discover merger, gaining a major card business, deposit base, and ownership of a large international payment network. COF trades at attractive 2026/2027 EPS multiples (9.7x/8.2x), with $1.5B expense and $1.2B network synergy targets supporting a Buy rating. Improving credit quality, robust deposit growth, and a 13.7% CET1 ratio position COF favorably for integration and earnings leverage.
Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc. raised its stake in Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) by 117.3% during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 8,149 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after buying an additional 4,399 shares during the period. Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc.’s holdings in Capital One Financial were worth $1,573,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other institutional investors also recently modified their holdings of the stock. Solstein Capital LLC acquired a new position in Capital One Financial in the 2nd quarter worth about $26,000. Purpose Unlimited Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the fourth quarter worth about $33,000. Ballast Advisors LLC acquired a new position in shares of Capital One Financial in the first quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Pension & Wealth Management Advisors Inc. bought a new position in Capital One Financial in the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $31,000. Finally, Frazier Financial Advisors LLC bought a new position in Capital One Financial in the 1st quarter valued at approximately $29,000. 89.84% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Capital One Financial Trading Up 0.8% COF stock traded up $1.65 during mid-day trading on Monday, reaching $196.37. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 931,629 shares, compared to its average volume of 4,666,057. The company has a market cap of $120.47 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.14, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.72 and a beta of 1.04. The business’s 50 day moving average price is $211.41 and its 200 day moving average price is $199.22. The company has a current ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39. Capital One Financial Corporation has a 12 month low of $174.24 and a 12 month high of $259.64.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, July 21st. The financial services provider reported $5.81 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $4.79 by $1.02. The firm had revenue of $15.83 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $15.76 billion. Capital One Financial had a return on equity of 11.28% and a net margin of 13.37%.The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 26.9% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned $5.48 EPS. On average, equities research analysts predict that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.32 EPS for the current year. Capital One Financial Dividend Announcement The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Shareholders of record on Monday, August 17th were paid a $0.80 dividend. This represents a $3.20 annualized dividend and a yield of 1.6%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. Capital One Financial’s payout ratio is 19.80%.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several equities analysts have issued reports on COF shares. Bank of America decreased their price target on shares of Capital One Financial from $234.00 to $231.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. UBS Group raised their target price on Capital One Financial from $275.00 to $280.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, August 3rd. HSBC upgraded Capital One Financial from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and upped their price target for the company from $226.00 to $229.00 in a research report on Sunday, July 12th. Wolfe Research raised their price target on shares of Capital One Financial from $255.00 to $275.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Tuesday, August 25th. Finally, Evercore set a $220.00 price target on shares of Capital One Financial in a research report on Thursday. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Capital One Financial has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $258.27.
View Our Latest Stock Analysis on Capital One Financial
Insider Activity In other news, CAO Timothy P. Golden sold 3,487 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, July 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $211.00, for a total transaction of $735,757.00. Following the transaction, the chief accounting officer owned 7,429 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,567,519. This represents a 31.94% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this link. Also, General Counsel Matthew Cooper sold 3,500 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $214.10, for a total value of $749,350.00. Following the completion of the sale, the general counsel owned 83,194 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $17,811,835.40. This represents a 4.04% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last ninety days, insiders have sold 33,850 shares of company stock valued at $7,208,382. Corporate insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock.
(Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company provides credit cards, consumer banking products, auto financing and commercial banking services through its Capital One brand.
Capital One offers credit cards for consumers and businesses, checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, personal loans and auto loans. Its commercial banking operations serve businesses, institutions and commercial real estate clients with lending, deposit, treasury management and other financial services.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations in Canada and the United Kingdom.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Capital One Financial A Manufacturing Surprise Could Be a Big Win for These 2 Companies What a $1 Billion Chip Deal Says About Amazon’s AI Ambitions 3 Stocks Benefiting From AI Demand Just Announced Major Buybacks Insiders Are Selling These 3 Stocks, Should You? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding COF? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report).
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Before artificial intelligence can take Wall Street jobs, it is first creating them.
Posts for AI-related roles at banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Capital One surged 49% this year compared with 2025 to 139,819 listings, according to an analysis by enterprise hiring data firm Draup that was provided exclusively to CNBC.
The fastest-growing area is a cluster of skills involving AI agents, according to Draup, which culls data from public job posts and platforms including LinkedIn. For instance, references to agent orchestration, or the ability to design agents that work in concert on a task, jumped 1,721% this year.
"This is arguably the hottest skill on Wall Street," Draup CEO Vijay Swaminathan said in an interview. "It's a massive opportunity; they need people who understand data and people who understand AI and where to put it."
The job listings show that Wall Street banks are moving beyond chatbots to the next phase of their AI strategy, one that has implications for executives, employees and shareholders. To make good on AI's promise to boost productivity and automate repetitive tasks, banks are pressing forward into a future filled with armies of agents handling an increasing share of labor.
While an earlier wave of AI hiring was dominated by engineers and data scientists building models or adapting them to corporate data, the boom has expanded to include people who are responsible for embedding AI directly into business lines.
Deploying AI inside a financial institution often requires stringing together multiple specialized agents: one to inspect raw data, another to analyze a document and a third to check regulatory compliance, for example.
The workers involved in this process, often called forward-deployed engineers, need a combination of technical abilities and domain knowledge of a specific business or function, from trading desks to back-office operations and human resources, according to Swaminathan.
"There is a lot of complexity in an enterprise," Swaminathan said. "Sometimes these complexities are visible, but many times they are hidden. It takes a long time even to automate a simple process."
For instance, creating a team of agents to automate approval of a company's vacation requests creates a web of edge cases and specific exemptions, he said.
The agent orchestration skill is especially relevant to forward-deployed engineers, because their job is to figure out which agents are needed, what each one does and which technology to use, said the Draup CEO. It also involves deciding when human overseers need to be involved, he said.
Agent tech stack Other in-demand skills related to the AI buildout involve understanding tools and techniques that give agents the ability to get things done.
References to LangGraph, a framework for building multi-step workflows, jumped 679%, while LlamaIndex, which helps connect AI applications to data, rose 291%. References to retrieval-augmented generation, or RAG, a technique for feeding AI models information from company databases, climbed 259%.
Beyond technical abilities, though, there is a growing emphasis on so-called soft skills.
"Our analysis shows that there is a renewed focus on soft skills like problem solving, creativity, ability to ask tough questions, being assertive [when it comes to] deeper understanding of the processes," he said.
Other growth areas within AI include those responsible for creating guardrails around the emerging systems.
References in job posts to "responsible AI" surged 657% this year, according to Draup, while those mentioning AI governance and risk management jumped 394% and 359%, respectively. Security teams are also focused on preventing third-party tools or external model connections from creating systemic vulnerabilities.
Governance-related skills now account for more than 16,000 references in the Draup data, nearly twice the roughly 8,400 tied to training, deploying and running models.
"There is a lot of focus on making sure that the third parties that we are using in these products are not going rogue from a cybersecurity standpoint," he said.
Roles tied to generative AI and agents typically pay more than tech roles elsewhere in finance, with generative AI managers paid a median base salary of about $190,000, according to Draup.
Despite the higher pay, filling these specialized roles remains a challenge, said Swaminathan.
To bridge the gap, major banks are leaning heavily into internal reskilling programs to train existing developers and domain experts, he said. The buildout will itself create ripple waves: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has spoken of "huge redeployment plans" as AI takes over more work.
"I think the more we prioritize those soft skills with the right amount of technical skills, people will adapt and learn," Swaminathan said. "It's a very exciting time for the right talent."
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Capital One announced a limited time offer for existing Venture X Business cardholders in celebration of the card's third anniversary. Beginning Sept. 30, 2026, eligible existing Capital One Venture X Business cardholders can earn a $500 Capital One Business Travel credit after spending $3,000 on Capital One Business Travel bookings by December 15, 2026. Additionally, cardholders can also receive their fourth night free at select Premier and Lifestyle Collec.
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Physical mobility has long been associated with economic opportunity. New national survey data from Capital One Auto released today offers fresh insights into consumer perceptions of that connection—including a self-reported average of ~$21,000 in additional annual earning potential among adults lacking consistent vehicle access, alongside a 70% consumer demand for more guidance to help navigate today's auto market. Designed to examine how physical mobility directl.
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Value ScoreFinding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.
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Momentum ScoreMomentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
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Stock to Watch: Capital One (COF - Free Report) Headquartered in McLean, VA, Capital One Financial Corporation was established in 1994. and primarily focuses on consumer and commercial lending, as well as deposit origination. The company offers a wide range of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients across the United States through its banking and non-banking subsidiaries.
COF is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 9.68; value investors should take notice.
For fiscal 2026, two analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.12 to $20.31 per share. COF boasts an average earnings surprise of +12.8%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, COF should be on investors' short list.
Capital One quietly shifted certain cardholders onto a network that gets declined at hotel desks and taxi stands across Europe and Asia, and the reason comes down to a financial calculation most customers never see coming.
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On his September 23, 2026 podcast, consumer advocate Clark Howard warned that Capital One has migrated price-sensitive customers’ cards to the Discover Network, which means occasionally you won’t be able to use it, especially overseas. He noted Capital One is not doing this for Capital One cards they assume people will take overseas.
The stakes are practical. A Discover-branded card can be declined at a Paris taxi stand or Tokyo hotel while a Visa or Mastercard sails through. The reason is how card issuers sort customers by profit.
Verdict: The Warning Is Real, and the Math Explains Why Howard’s warning holds up against Capital One (NYSE:COF | COF Price Prediction)’s own data. On the July 21, 2026 earnings call, CEO Richard Fairbank said the company was 14 months into our planned 24-month integration of Discover. Global Payment Network volume hit $189.6 billion in the quarter, up 156% year over year. That growth requires shoveling accounts onto Discover rails.
To see why the cheapest customers get shoveled first, you need to understand how card issuers actually make money. There are two customer types:
Transactors pay their balance in full each month. The issuer earns roughly 1.5% to 2.5% in interchange every time they swipe, plus any annual fee. These are the customers airlines, hotels, and lounge-access cards fight for. Revolvers carry a balance and pay interest, often at 22% to 29% APR. The issuer earns interchange plus interest, but also absorbs charge-offs. A price-sensitive customer with a no-fee card who rarely travels is worth far less than a heavy-spending transactor on a premium travel card. Capital One is spending heavily to keep the second group happy. Total marketing expense hit about $1.7 billion, up 23% year over year, aimed at heavy-spender growth and premium benefits.
Every time a customer swipes, the merchant’s bank pays an interchange fee routed through the network. If Capital One issues on Discover, which Capital One now owns along with PULSE Network and Diners Club International, that fee slice stays in-house. Migrate a customer who spends $12,000 a year at roughly 2% interchange, and Capital One captures extra revenue on every transaction. Do that across millions of accounts and you get a 156% jump in network volume.
The cost lands on cardholders abroad. Discover’s international acceptance is thinner than Visa’s or Mastercard’s. Fairbank said on the call that international acceptance is a long quest and Capital One is starting with Mexico, the Caribbean, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Anywhere else, a Discover-branded reissue can fail at the terminal.
One Variable Decides Whether You Care The single factor that determines whether this migration hurts you is how often you travel outside the United States and Canada. Domestically, Discover’s network has really wide acceptance because Capital One now stands behind it.
If you use the card only for groceries, gas, and Amazon, a Discover-branded reissue changes nothing. If you take one international trip a year and rely on that card for hotels and rental cars, a single decline can force you into cash advances at 25%+ APR or leave you stranded until a backup card arrives.
Capital One’s stock reflects investor patience with this trade. Shares are down about 18% year to date and trading near $195, with a market cap around $120 billion. Network volume gains are real, but the market is pricing integration risk.
What to Do Before Your Next Trip Check your Capital One card for the network logo. If it says Discover and you travel internationally, request a Visa or Mastercard product from Capital One or plan around it. Carry a second card from a different issuer on international trips. A Visa or Mastercard from another bank is the cleanest backup. Before a trip, check your card issuer’s foreign transaction fee. Many Capital One products charge 0%; some competitors charge 3%. If a reissued card arrives unexpectedly, check the account terms for changes to APR, credit limit, or rewards. When a card issuer moves you between brands, it is optimizing its own economics, and the friction lands on you at the terminal.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--On Tuesday, October 20, 2026, at approximately 4:05 p.m. Eastern Time, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) will release its third quarter 2026 earnings results. Additionally, the company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time to review financial and operating performance for the quarter ending September 30, 2026.
The call will be webcast live and the earnings release will be available on the company’s homepage at www.capitalone.com. A replay of the webcast will be available 24 hours a day, beginning two hours after the conference call, until 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on November 3, 2026, through the company’s homepage.
About Capital One
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a leading technology-based financial services company with $484.3 billion in deposits and $673.8 billion in total assets as of June 30, 2026. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the company operates as a premier global payments provider and diversified financial institution, delivering a broad suite of products and consumer lifestyle and shopping experiences through its Credit Card, Consumer Banking including its Global Payment Network, and Commercial Banking lines of business. As the only major U.S. bank to migrate entirely to the public cloud, Capital One leverages proprietary data and advanced analytics to democratize financial tools across its primary markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Jason Brown (@brownreport) turns to stocks that are the faces of the restaurant, financial, and consumer staples industries. He expresses concerns in McDonald's (MCD) core fundamentals following the company's investor day and subsequent selloff, expects CapitalOne (COF) to see pressure from consumers pulling back on borrowing, and Procter & Gamble (PG) as an investing fortress amid all the uncertainty.
Key Takeaways Average card delinquencies rose to 2.51% in August but remained below 2.67% a year earlier.Average net charge-offs increased to 3.29% but stayed below the 3.74% year-ago level.JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America reported lower card delinquencies than a year earlier. Credit-card delinquencies and charge-offs edged higher in August across a group of major U.S. card issuers, pointing to a modest increase in consumer credit stress. However, the latest readings remained below year-ago levels, suggesting that the deterioration remains contained rather than indicative of a broad weakening in portfolio quality.
Based on credit-quality data reported by seven major U.S. card issuers, including Capital One Financial (COF - Free Report) , JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , the average delinquency rate edged up to 2.51% in August from 2.50% in July. While this was slightly above the pre-pandemic August 2019 average of 2.48%, it remained below the 2.67% recorded a year earlier.
Similarly, the average net charge-off rate rose marginally to 3.29% from 3.28% in July. However, the metric remained below the three-month average of 3.33%, the year-ago level of 3.74% and the 3.57% recorded in August 2019. Thus, while realized credit losses moved higher sequentially, the broader trend remains more favorable than a year ago.
August Credit Trends for COF, JPM, C & BACCapital One’s Master Trust continued to report comparatively higher credit stress in August. Its delinquency rate increased to 3.57% from 3.48% in July, but was down 16 basis points (bps) from 3.73% a year earlier and remained well above the 2.23% recorded in August 2019. The net charge-off rate also edged higher to 4.16% from 4.12% in July, but declined 54 bps from 4.70% a year ago and remained above the 3.74% recorded in August 2019. Meanwhile, principal receivables increased slightly to approximately $23.3 billion from $23.2 billion a month earlier.
JPMorgan's credit trends were more encouraging on the delinquency front. The delinquency rate for its Chase Issuance Trust slipped to 0.80% in August from 0.81% in July and was down 3 bps from 0.83% a year earlier, remaining below the 1.14% reported in August 2019. However, the net charge-off rate increased to 1.66% from 1.58%, although it was down 12 bps from 1.78% a year ago and remained comfortably below the August 2019 level of 2.45%. Principal receivables rose modestly to approximately $11.8 billion from $11.7 billion.
Citigroup followed a similar pattern. The delinquency rate for its Citibank Credit Card Issuance Trust declined to 1.29% from 1.32% in July and was down 7 bps from 1.36% a year earlier, remaining below the 1.53% recorded in August 2019. However, its net charge-off rate climbed to 2.03% from 1.90%, although it was down 35 bps from 2.38% a year ago and remained below the 2.62% level seen in August 2019. Principal receivables were roughly stable at $19.1 billion.
Bank of America also reported an improvement in card credit quality year over year. The BA Master Credit Card Trust II's delinquency rate stood at 1.28% in August, up from 1.26% in July but down 8 bps from 1.36% a year earlier. The rate was also below the 1.56% reported in August 2019. Meanwhile, BAC's net charge-off rate edged up to 2.15% from 2.13% in July but declined 26 bps from 2.41% a year ago and remained below the 2.67% recorded in August 2019. Its principal receivables were roughly stable at $14.2 billion.
What Does the Latest Credit Trend Mean for Banks?For banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Capital One, the August data suggest a gradual normalization in credit losses rather than a broad-based deterioration in portfolio quality.
Nonetheless, a sustained rise in delinquencies and charge-offs could temper credit-card loan growth. Higher credit costs may prompt lenders to tighten underwriting standards, curb exposure to riskier borrowers and remain selective in extending new credit or raising credit limits. This, in turn, could moderate growth in card balances and constrain interest income from credit-card portfolios.
Moreover, amid a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment, continued pressure on consumer credit quality could prompt banks to prioritize credit discipline, loss containment and risk-adjusted returns over aggressive loan growth. Consequently, card-loan growth and the pace of interest-income expansion could remain modest in the near term.
At present, Capital One, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Capital One?Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Capital One (COF - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.50 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 20, 2026.
By taking the percentage difference between the $5.50 Most Accurate Estimate and the $5.4 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Capital One has an Earnings ESP of +1.88%. Investors should also know that COF is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
COF is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Toronto-Dominion Bank is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on December 3, 2026. TD's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.85 a share 72 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toronto-Dominion Bank is $1.83, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1.28%.
COF and TD's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
These 4 Earnings Reports Expose the Market’s Growing Economic DivideCapital One Financial NYSE: COF CEO Richard Fairbank said the company continues to see consumer strength across its portfolio, with credit performance, spending trends and bank balances remaining resilient despite concerns about inflation, energy prices and broader economic uncertainty.
Speaking at an investor event, Fairbank said unemployment remains low, job creation recently rebounded and consumer spending has stayed strong. He added that average bank balances per person were modestly higher than a year earlier. Within Capital One’s portfolio, monthly delinquencies were consistent with seasonal patterns, while charge-offs performed better than seasonal expectations, aided by elevated recoveries.
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Fiserv’s Debit Network Talks Raise a Bigger Question for Visa and MastercardFairbank said consumer credit performance had generally improved through much of 2026 before recently stabilizing in line with seasonal trends. Spending strength was evident across the company’s credit spectrum, including among lower-income customers in its portfolio. However, he noted that Capital One’s underwriting practices mean it does not necessarily have visibility into the lowest-income consumers across the broader economy.
Auto lending remains competitive Fairbank described auto lending as a highly competitive business in which dealers effectively solicit competing offers from lenders. He said Capital One does not pursue growth at the expense of underwriting standards, margins or product resilience.
Synchrony’s Comeback Is Hiding in Plain SightThat approach has caused the company’s auto-loan growth position to vary over time, Fairbank said, with Capital One at times near the bottom and at other times near the top of industry growth rankings. More recently, he said the company has generated strong growth while maintaining stable credit performance.
Capital One had warned during the pandemic that government stimulus and forbearance programs could artificially improve consumer credit scores. Fairbank said the company adjusted its underwriting to account for that effect, which constrained growth for a period. He said Capital One’s subsequent origination vintages have performed consistently with one another and with pre-pandemic performance, even as the broader industry experienced more credit volatility.
The company does not set formal growth targets for its businesses, Fairbank said. Instead, teams are expected to originate business that meets its standards for credit quality, margins and long-term durability.
Discover conversion proceeds toward 2027 completion Fairbank said Discover credit-card originations moved entirely onto Capital One’s technology platform at the beginning of the current month. The migration of Discover’s existing card portfolio began with an initial wave in July and is expected to conclude with a final wave in January 2027.
He said Capital One’s modern technology stack has been important in managing what he called a complex integration, though some legacy vendor connections still add complexity. The broader integration is expected to be substantially complete by the middle of 2027, when remaining operating expense synergies are expected to reach a run rate.
Capital One has targeted $1.5 billion in operating expense synergies from the Discover transaction. Fairbank said roughly one-third had been achieved in the second quarter, while much of the remaining savings will be back-loaded because they depend on completing technology conversions.
Fairbank also addressed what Capital One has called the “brownout” in Discover’s credit-card loan portfolio, referring to its continuing decline. He attributed the reduction in part to Discover’s pullback in originations following credit challenges in 2023 and to Capital One’s decision to reduce lending around the edges to more indebted consumers.
While new Discover accounts are now being originated through Capital One’s platform, Fairbank cautioned that the benefits will take time to appear in total loan balances. Capital One expects to use its wider credit box, broader marketing reach and experience serving both lower-credit and higher-spending customers to create growth opportunities. Progress will first be reflected in a stabilization of the portfolio’s rate of decline before eventual growth, he said.
Brex seen as commercial payments expansion Fairbank said Capital One remains enthusiastic about Brex approximately five months after completing its acquisition. He positioned Brex as part of Capital One’s broader ambition to operate as a payments company in addition to its lending and banking businesses.
Brex operates in corporate cards, accounts payable and employee spend management. Fairbank said Brex’s technology combines those functions into a single offering, rather than treating them as separate markets. Capital One is initially pursuing a “light integration” focused on essential systems while adding capabilities from Capital One, including its marketing channels, brand, small-business customer base and lower cost of funds.
He said the company has seen “promising green shoots” and eventually expects opportunities to connect Brex with Capital One’s existing small-business operations and travel business.
Investment, earnings and capital priorities Fairbank said Capital One’s expected post-integration earnings power remains broadly in line with the return on tangible common equity outlook provided when the Discover acquisition was announced. He said a larger-than-expected Discover portfolio decline has weighed on loan growth, while stronger margins and credit performance have been favorable factors. The acquisitions of Brex and Hopper technology assets, along with continued technology and artificial intelligence investments, are also part of the company’s evolving investment agenda.
Capital One evaluates investments primarily through risk-adjusted internal-rate-of-return measures, Fairbank said, while also monitoring current-period financial performance. Jeff Norris, Capital One’s senior vice president of finance, said management focuses not only on new investments but also on efficiency across the rest of its expense base, including digital productivity gains.
With a common equity tier 1 ratio of 13.7%, Fairbank said Capital One believes its earnings power can support growth investments, a conservative capital position and significant shareholder capital returns. He said the company views excess capital as particularly valuable during downturns, when it can help the business withstand stress and pursue growth while competitors pull back.
About Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF)Capital One Financial Corporation NYSE: COF is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company initially built its business as a credit card issuer and has since expanded into consumer banking, commercial banking and payments.
Capital One offers a range of credit card products for consumers and businesses, along with deposit accounts, savings products, auto loans and other consumer lending services. Through its commercial banking operations, the company provides financing, treasury management and related services to commercial real estate clients, middle-market companies and other businesses.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations and financial services activities in Canada and the United Kingdom.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference September 16, 2026 12:00 PM EDT
Company Participants
Richard Fairbank - Founder, Chairman, CEO & President
Jeff Norris - Senior Vice President of Finance
Conference Call Participants
Terry Ma - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Presentation
Terry Ma
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Okay. We're going to get started. Thank you, everyone, for joining. Very pleased to have Capital One here with me again this year. With me on stage, we have Richard Fairbank, CEO; and Jeff Norris, SVP of Finance. So welcome, gentlemen.
Richard Fairbank
Founder, Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks, Terry.
Jeff Norris
Senior Vice President of Finance
Thank you.
Question-and-Answer Session
Terry Ma
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
All right. So let's jump right into it. Maybe let's begin with the state of the consumer. There's been lots of headlines this year around inflation, energy prices and the health of lower income households. As you look across your customer base today, how would you characterize consumer health across income cohorts and credit segments?
Richard Fairbank
Founder, Chairman, CEO & President
So if we read the news every day, it's pretty alarming, the things we see out there. And I think it's natural for people to be pretty concerned about where the consumer is. But if we actually look at the numbers, some of the macroeconomic numbers and our own portfolio, we see really quite a striking strength. So let's just talk about the macro numbers for a second. Unemployment is low. The new job creation just rebounded very recently. Consumer spending is pretty strong. Bank balances, when we look at bank balances, they are up a little bit over last year on average per person. So the consumer -- I mean, there's a lot of indications that despite all the noise out there and despite the inflation and tariffs and wars that are going
Something unusual is happening inside America's bankruptcy courts, and it has nothing to do with reckless young borrowers drowning in student loans. The age group that should be approaching its financial peak is quietly becoming the face of collapse, and…
The rise in consumer bankruptcies is becoming less about younger Americans getting in over their heads and more about older households struggling to carry debt into their peak earning and retirement years. However, it goes beyond household balance sheets.
When consumers run into trouble, lenders eventually feel it through higher charge-offs, tighter credit, and weaker loan growth. The latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax show that shift is becoming harder to ignore. Total U.S. household debt stood at $18.8 trillion in Q2 2026, while 4.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency.
Middle-Aged Americans Are Carrying the Burden The New York Fed’s latest bankruptcy data paint a striking picture. Americans ages 40-49 now account for 26.8% of new consumer bankruptcies, their highest share since Q3 2015 and the largest of any age group.
Those ages 50-59 account for another 23.1%. Combined, Americans between 40 and 59 represent 49.9% of new bankruptcies, the highest share since Q1 2017.
That is not quite the post-financial-crisis peak when the 40-59 group reached 54.3% in Q4 2011 after the 2008 financial crisis. But the direction is significant: bankruptcy is increasingly concentrated among people who are supposed to be entering their strongest earning years, not just young adults starting out.
And the shift does not stop there. Americans ages 70 and older now represent 21.5% of new bankruptcies, the highest proportion since Q2 2017. Meanwhile, people ages 18-29 account for just 5.9%, their lowest share since Q2 2014.
The age profile of financial distress has moved decisively upward.
The face of financial ruin is aging. With household debt hitting record highs, the burden is shifting from reckless youth to struggling seniors and middle-aged breadwinners. The Debt Numbers Explain Why Investors Should Care The New York Fed says credit card balances reached $1.263 trillion in Q2, up $54 billion from a year earlier. Auto debt reached $1.713 trillion, while HELOC balances climbed to $459 billion. Total household debt was $18.771 trillion.
Credit card debt is particularly important because it carries relatively high interest rates and can quickly become difficult to refinance. The New York Fed reported that 6.97% of credit card balances transitioned into serious delinquency in Q2, compared with 6.93% a year earlier. Auto-loan serious delinquency was 3.00%, up from 2.93%.
Ironically, older households may have more assets than younger consumers, but they also have less time to repair a damaged balance sheet.
Banks Are the Canary In the Credit Mine Investors do not need to assume a 2008-style collapse. The banking data do not support that conclusion yet.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction), for example, recorded $2.5 billion in provisions for credit losses in Q2, down from $2.8 billion a year earlier. Its total allowance for credit losses was $31.5 billion, or 1.79% of retained loans. Credit-card net charge-offs, however, remained elevated at a 3.33% annualized rate.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) provides another useful comparison. Its Q2 net charge-off rate fell to 4.71%, while its 30-plus-day delinquency rate declined to 3.37%. The company reported $3.0 billion of net income for the quarter.
That shows investors consumer credit is deteriorating in pockets, but lenders are not yet experiencing broad-based credit losses on the scale of the financial crisis.
Key Takeaway In short, the bankruptcy data are a warning sign, not a signal to sell everything.
The biggest concern is the age shift. Nearly half of new consumer bankruptcies now come from Americans ages 40-59, while another 21.5% come from those 70 and older. That suggests debt stress is becoming a middle-age and retirement problem.
For investors, that makes credit quality worth watching closely. Banks with strong capital and diversified revenue streams may weather rising defaults, while lenders heavily exposed to weaker consumers could face greater pressure.
The smart move is not to panic. It is to watch charge-offs, delinquencies, and credit-loss provisions closely — because those numbers will tell investors whether today’s bankruptcy warning remains contained or becomes something much larger.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Bank of America Corp DE purchased a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund purchased 7,154,376 shares of the financial services provider’s stock, valued at approximately $1,435,311,000. Bank of America Corp DE owned 1.17% of Capital One Financial at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of COF. Norges Bank acquired a new position in Capital One Financial in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $2,089,803,000. Legal & General Group Plc acquired a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter valued at $680,983,000. Berkshire Hathaway Inc acquired a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter valued at $601,860,000. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board purchased a new position in shares of Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter valued at $482,718,000. Finally, Jupiter Topco LLC purchased a new position in shares of Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter valued at $464,338,000. 89.84% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several analysts recently issued reports on the company. Piper Sandler assumed coverage on Capital One Financial in a report on Monday, June 29th. They set an “overweight” rating and a $254.00 price objective for the company. HSBC upgraded Capital One Financial from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and boosted their target price for the company from $226.00 to $229.00 in a research note on Sunday, July 12th. Citigroup dropped their target price on Capital One Financial from $310.00 to $295.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, July 28th. UBS Group lifted their price target on Capital One Financial from $275.00 to $280.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, August 3rd. Finally, TD Cowen lowered their price target on Capital One Financial from $260.00 to $253.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, July 7th. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Capital One Financial presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $258.91.
Read Our Latest Analysis on COF Capital One Financial Stock Performance COF opened at $206.83 on Tuesday. The company has a market cap of $126.88 billion, a PE ratio of 12.80, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.77 and a beta of 1.02. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a current ratio of 1.02. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $212.67 and a 200-day moving average of $198.35. Capital One Financial Corporation has a 52-week low of $174.24 and a 52-week high of $259.64.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, July 21st. The financial services provider reported $5.81 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $4.79 by $1.02. The company had revenue of $15.83 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $15.76 billion. Capital One Financial had a net margin of 13.37% and a return on equity of 11.28%. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 26.9% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $5.48 earnings per share. As a group, equities research analysts forecast that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.29 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Capital One Financial Announces Dividend The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Shareholders of record on Monday, August 17th were given a $0.80 dividend. This represents a $3.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.5%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, August 17th. Capital One Financial’s dividend payout ratio is 19.80%.
Insider Buying and Selling In related news, insider Michael Zamsky sold 5,473 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, August 10th. The stock was sold at an average price of $218.02, for a total transaction of $1,193,223.46. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 27,992 shares in the company, valued at $6,102,815.84. This represents a 16.35% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website. Also, General Counsel Matthew W. Cooper sold 3,500 shares of Capital One Financial stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $214.10, for a total value of $749,350.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the general counsel owned 83,194 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $17,811,835.40. The trade was a 4.04% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 29,767 shares of company stock worth $6,366,998 in the last three months. Company insiders own 0.78% of the company’s stock.
Capital One Financial Company Profile (Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company initially built its business as a credit card issuer and has since expanded into consumer banking, commercial banking and payments.
Capital One offers a range of credit card products for consumers and businesses, along with deposit accounts, savings products, auto loans and other consumer lending services. Through its commercial banking operations, the company provides financing, treasury management and related services to commercial real estate clients, middle-market companies and other businesses.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations and financial services activities in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its holdings in shares of Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF – Free Report) by 13.1% in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 39,306 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after purchasing an additional 4,562 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC’s holdings in Capital One Financial were worth $7,886,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Several other hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. California State Teachers Retirement System boosted its position in Capital One Financial by 18,518.3% in the 2nd quarter. California State Teachers Retirement System now owns 172,667,214 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $34,640,496,000 after buying an additional 171,739,810 shares during the last quarter. Norges Bank bought a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the fourth quarter valued at about $2,089,803,000. Bank of America Corp DE acquired a new stake in Capital One Financial in the second quarter worth approximately $1,435,311,000. Legal & General Group Plc bought a new position in shares of Capital One Financial during the 2nd quarter valued at about $680,983,000. Finally, Berkshire Hathaway Inc acquired a new stake in shares of Capital One Financial during the second quarter worth $601,860,000. 89.84% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Insiders Place Their Bets In other Capital One Financial news, General Counsel Matthew W. Cooper sold 3,500 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $214.10, for a total value of $749,350.00. Following the sale, the general counsel owned 83,194 shares in the company, valued at approximately $17,811,835.40. The trade was a 4.04% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, insider Michael Zamsky sold 5,473 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $218.02, for a total value of $1,193,223.46. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 27,992 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $6,102,815.84. The trade was a 16.35% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders sold a total of 29,767 shares of company stock valued at $6,366,998 over the last ninety days. 0.78% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Capital One Financial Trading Up 0.6% Shares of Capital One Financial stock opened at $208.29 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, a quick ratio of 1.02 and a current ratio of 1.02. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $212.66 and a 200-day moving average of $198.22. Capital One Financial Corporation has a 52-week low of $174.24 and a 52-week high of $259.64. The stock has a market cap of $127.78 billion, a PE ratio of 12.89, a PEG ratio of 0.77 and a beta of 1.02. Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, July 21st. The financial services provider reported $5.81 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $4.79 by $1.02. Capital One Financial had a net margin of 13.37% and a return on equity of 11.28%. The company had revenue of $15.83 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.76 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned $5.48 earnings per share. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 26.9% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, sell-side analysts forecast that Capital One Financial Corporation will post 20.29 EPS for the current year.
Capital One Financial Announces Dividend The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 1st. Investors of record on Monday, August 17th were paid a $0.80 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 17th. This represents a $3.20 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.5%. Capital One Financial’s payout ratio is currently 19.80%.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades COF has been the subject of a number of research reports. Wall Street Zen lowered Capital One Financial from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Sunday, August 2nd. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Capital One Financial from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “buy (b-)” rating in a report on Thursday, August 13th. TD Cowen dropped their price target on shares of Capital One Financial from $260.00 to $253.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. Citigroup reduced their target price on Capital One Financial from $310.00 to $295.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Tuesday, July 28th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a $245.00 price objective on Capital One Financial in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Twenty-one equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $258.91.
View Our Latest Stock Report on COF
(Free Report)
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company initially built its business as a credit card issuer and has since expanded into consumer banking, commercial banking and payments.
Capital One offers a range of credit card products for consumers and businesses, along with deposit accounts, savings products, auto loans and other consumer lending services. Through its commercial banking operations, the company provides financing, treasury management and related services to commercial real estate clients, middle-market companies and other businesses.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations and financial services activities in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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