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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -0.69%) is set to report its second-quarter results on July 29, and after a rough stretch for the burrito maker, plenty of investors are wondering whether to buy ahead of the print. That's a fair question, but I think it is the wrong one to obsess over. The smarter approach is to ask how this quarter fits into Chipotle's longer story.

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What to watch on July 29 The headline number will be same-store sales, and the recent trend is encouraging. After comparable sales declined for several quarters, Chipotle eked out a 0.5% comps gain in Q1 as customer traffic grew again thanks to menu innovations and limited-time offerings.

Management has guided for roughly flat same-store sales this year, with acceleration expected as 2026 goes on. So the key things to watch on July 29 will be whether that fragile traffic recovery is building momentum and whether margins are holding up while the company reinvests.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here is why I would not let a single earnings report decide for me. Chipotle's real engine is not quarterly comps; it is relentless unit growth. The company plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants this year, keeping up its 8% to 10% annual expansion pace, with a heavy emphasis on Chipotlanes, its drive-thru lanes designed for pickup of digital orders.  The company has a long runway toward its long-term goal of roughly 7,000 North American locations, and its individual restaurants boast some of the best economics in the industry.

That combination of opening more high-returning stores year after year is what compounds its value for shareholders over time. A single soft quarter or a single strong one will barely change that trajectory. If anything, the recent weakness has cooled Chipotle's once-lofty valuation. For patient investors, that's more an opportunity than a warning.

I would not rush in just to beat an earnings date, because trying to trade a single quarter is closer to gambling than investing. But if you believe in Chipotle's long-term story, its durable brand, its proven store model, and its plans for years of unit growth, the recent pullback and early signs of a traffic turnaround make this a reasonable time to start a position or add to one, regardless of what the upcoming earnings report reveals.

Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Analysts on Wall Street project that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 3% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $3.32 billion, increasing 8.4% from the same quarter last year.

Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.

Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors typically rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to gauge how the business may have fared during the quarter, examining analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics often helps gain a deeper insight.

In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain Chipotle metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.

Analysts expect 'Revenue- Food and beverage' to come in at $3.31 billion. The estimate points to a change of +8.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- Delivery service' will reach $16.02 million. The estimate suggests a change of +2.5% year over year.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Company-operated restaurants at end of period' reaching 4,160 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3,839 .

Analysts forecast 'Company-operated restaurants opened' to reach 75 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 61 in the same quarter last year.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Company-operated restaurants at beginning of period' will reach 4,090 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 3,781 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Average restaurant sales - TTM' at $3.09 million. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $3.14 million in the same quarter last year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Chipotle here>>>

Chipotle shares have witnessed a change of -0.8% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), CMG is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

Key Takeaways CAKE may see Q2 gains from openings, menu innovation and stronger digital engagement.BJRI may benefit from traffic momentum, meal deals, menu additions and digital marketing efficiency.CMG's Q2 performance may gain from expansion, Rewards, technology and new menu offerings. The second-quarter 2026 earnings season for U.S. restaurant operators began this week, with Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) reporting mixed results. Several prominent restaurant operators are scheduled to release results over the next few weeks.

The latest Earnings Trend report suggests that the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector’s second-quarter earnings are expected to increase by 9.1% from the year-ago period’s reported figure. The previous quarter recorded a 9.8% increase. The sector’s revenues are projected to increase 6.6% compared with 4.1% reported in the previous quarter.

We have identified — with the help of the Zacks Stock Screener — a few restaurant players that are set to outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate this earnings season. These include The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) , BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) .

Before we discuss the companies, let us examine the factors likely to have shaped the restaurant industry’s second-quarter performance.

Factors At PlayThe U.S. restaurant industry is likely to have faced an uneven operating environment in the second quarter of 2026. A volatile macroeconomic backdrop, geopolitical uncertainty and heightened competition are likely to have weighed on the respective company’s second-quarter performance. Elevated gas prices may have constrained consumers’ discretionary budgets, while affordability pressures remained particularly pronounced among lower-income consumers.

Elevated operating expenses are likely to have constrained profitability in the second quarter. Per the National Restaurant Association, total expenses for an average restaurant are projected to be 36% higher in 2026 than in 2019, with average hourly earnings and wholesale food prices up 41% and 35%, respectively, from pre-pandemic levels. Limited pricing flexibility, greater reliance on value promotions and elevated beef, pork, produce and seafood costs are likely to have weighed on restaurant-level margins.

Restaurant companies’ emphasis on meal deals, loyalty offers and digital promotions is likely to have supported transactions during the quarter under review. Heightened international travel and the FIFA World Cup likely increased restaurant spending in select urban and destination markets. Meanwhile, broader GLP-1 adoption may have shifted ordering preferences toward smaller portions and protein-focused offerings without materially weakening restaurant engagement.

Restaurant spending is likely to have remained resilient in nominal terms. Per the report, eating and drinking place sales reached a seasonally adjusted $102.5 billion in June, up slightly from $102.4 billion in May and marking the fourth monthly increase in five months. Inflation-adjusted sales rose 0.4% year over year and remained relatively flat in recent months. Restaurant companies with compelling value offerings, strong digital ecosystems, effective cost controls and flexible menus are likely to have been better positioned during the quarter.

How to Make the Right Pick?Given the wide range of companies in this space, the task is by no means easy. While it is impossible to be sure of the outperformers, our proprietary methodology — a positive Earnings ESP, along with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — makes it relatively simple. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for identifying stocks with high chances of delivering a surprise in their upcoming earnings announcements. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Our research shows that for stocks with the abovementioned combination, chances of a positive earnings surprise are as high as 70%.

Our ChoicesHere we discuss in detail the three abovementioned restaurant companies that are likely to beat estimates this time around.

Cheesecake Factory is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 28. CAKE has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CAKE’s second-quarter results are likely to have benefited from new restaurant openings, menu innovation and stronger digital engagement. The rollout of its mobile app and more personalized Rewards offers is likely to have supported ordering frequency and customer acquisition, while solid momentum at Flower Child and disciplined restaurant execution may have aided sales and profitability. However, low-to-mid-single-digit commodity and labor inflation, higher marketing expenses and continued softness at North Italia are likely to have constrained margin expansion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAKE’s fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.17 and $997.8 million, respectively. EPS estimates for the fiscal second quarter increased 2.6% in the past 60 days. CAKE has surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

BJ's Restaurants is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 30. BJRI currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.51% and a Zacks Rank #2.

BJ’s Restaurants’ second-quarter results are likely to have benefited from sustained traffic momentum, strong performance during the celebration season and increased marketing support. The Pizookie Meal Deal, seasonal Pizookies, enhanced pizza offerings and the premium Wagyu burger are likely to have supported guest frequency, menu mix and brand relevance, particularly among younger consumers. Continued improvements in restaurant execution, guest satisfaction and digital marketing efficiency are likely to have aided the company's performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJRI’s to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at 87 cents and $374.6 million, respectively. EPS estimates for the second quarter increased 1.2% in the past 60 days. BJRI has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once.

Chipotle is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29. CMG currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Chipotle's second-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from restaurant expansion, menu innovation, stronger Rewards engagement and operational technology investments. The continued rollout of Chipotlanes, Chipotle Honey Chicken and Cilantro Lime Sauce, along with enhanced digital features, is likely to have supported transactions, customer frequency and sales mix. High-efficiency kitchen equipment and the Chipotle Kitchen digital make-line system may also have improved throughput, order accuracy and service execution. However, mid-single-digit food-cost inflation, particularly for avocados, dairy and beef, along with wage pressure and cautious consumer spending, is likely to have constrained restaurant-level margins.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle's to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at 32 cents and $3.32 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the second quarter have remained unchanged in the past 60 days. CMG surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

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Jason Kidd said he taste tests Chipotle all day when he travels to different markets. Marissa Leshnov for BI Jason Kidd spends his days taste-testing Chipotle — and it's his dream job.

Kidd, who used to be COO at Taco Bell, told Business Insider that traveling to different locations weekly to visit with Chipotle staff is exactly the role he envisioned for himself.

His path to COO wasn't always glamorous, though. Kidd, who spent two decades in retail before moving into the restaurant business, has simple advice for anyone seeking their dream career: Don't wait for the perfect opportunity. Instead, he said, "say yes," even to the jobs that don't sound "easy or exciting."

"Do the job that someone else doesn't want to do," Kidd said. "Take the opportunity, move, go be uncomfortable."

The COO said that's a "critical piece" of every career, and it worked well for a lot of people he knows who are now "incredibly successful."

Early in his career, Kidd said he volunteered to be the lead in a management training program. The job involved working 4 a.m. shifts, closing shifts, and overnight shifts. Meanwhile, the other trainees mostly worked mid-shifts. Kidd said he finished the program faster than his peers and was promoted first — and not because he was necessarily the smartest of the group.

"I gained the most experience the fastest," Kidd added in a follow up email. "I got to see how every part of the operation worked and how it all came together."

Early on in your career, you tend to have less control over your job and do more grunt work. While those experiences may not always be pleasant, Kidd said it allows you to see what you might like to do — or what you want to avoid in the future.

Sometimes, he said, someone may think they want to do something, but after actually trying it, they realize they don't. Or the opposite may happen, where someone gets surprised by how much they like something.

"So I tell people: Say 'yes.' Be ready," Kidd said.

Kidd also advises workers to be strong communicators from the start. He said owning outcomes is crucial early on in your career, and it's one of the four traits he looks for in workers he goes to promote.

"Give good feedback," Kidd said. "If you can be a clear communicator early on, that goes a long way."

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Careers Jobs

Chipotle Mexican Grill shares are sliding. Why is CMG stock falling? Cyclospora Outbreak Dents Fast-Casual Foot Traffic Across the SectorA foodborne Cyclospora parasite outbreak linked to contaminated iceberg lettuce sourced from Mexico has rattled the fast-casual dining space, sending foot traffic lower across multiple chains. The FDA traced the outbreak to lettuce used in Taco Bell’s supply chain, prompting supplier Taylor Farms and distributor Sysco to pull the product.

Placer.ai foot traffic data through July 17 shows Taco Bell visits fell 18.9% compared to its day-of-week average from January through early July. Chipotle was not spared, recording a 6.9% decline in customer visits over the same window, as broader consumer anxiety around fresh ingredients at Mexican-style fast-casual restaurants appears to be weighing on traffic regardless of direct supply chain involvement.

Earnings Preview Adds Another Layer of CautionBeyond the sector noise, traders appear to be trimming exposure ahead of Chipotle’s upcoming earnings release. Analysts are currently projecting earnings of 32 cents per share on revenue of $3.33 billion.

The stock has a history of sharp moves in either direction around quarterly results and with the report approaching some investors are choosing to reduce risk rather than carry a full position into the print. Any sign that recent foot traffic softness has fed through into weaker comparable sales figures could amplify the downside reaction when results hit.

CMG Versus The Tape: A Breakdown Test, Not A BreakoutThe chart is not helping CMG. The stock sits 2.5% below its 20‑day SMA $33.86 and 1% below its 100‑day SMA $33.33, levels that often act like speed bumps when buyers try to spark a rebound. It is still holding 1.4% above its 50‑day SMA $32.56 but remains 6.3% below its 200‑day SMA $35.24, which keeps the longer‑term trend tilted bearish.

Momentum is not signaling capitulation. RSI is at 47.20, a neutral zone that shows the move is not washed out but also not showing the kind of upside pressure that forces shorts to cover and sidelined buyers to chase. That neutrality matters because it suggests the stock can keep chopping or leaking without the technical relief valve of an oversold snapback.

Zoom out and the backdrop stays heavy. CMG is down 37.04% over the past 12 months. June delivered an oversold RSI event and the 52‑week low. July produced a swing high and a break above resistance. This pullback now serves as a test of whether that breakout reflected real demand or simply a temporary repricing in a thin summer tape.

Key levels are taking center stage. Resistance sits at $33.50, a nearby pivot zone that overlaps the 100‑day area where rebounds often stall. Support is $30.50, a floor that becomes more important if selling continues, sitting above the $28.04 52‑week low zone. If bulls cannot reclaim the moving‑average cluster, the next question becomes how quickly price starts probing that lower shelf.

CMG Shares Are DroppingCMG Price Action: Chipotle shares were down 4.07% at $33.04 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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Chipotle Brings Brand to MexicoChipotle’s first Mexican restaurant opened Thursday, July 16, in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, in partnership with Alsea, a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe. The location is the first to open under a development agreement the two companies announced in April 2025. Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional restaurants in Nuevo León later this year and expand into Mexico City in 2027.

“We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country’s culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence,” said Scott Boatwright, CEO of Chipotle. “Nuevo León is an ideal place to begin this journey, and with Alsea’s operational expertise and deep local market knowledge, we look forward to serving new guests and earning a place in Mexico’s vibrant dining culture.”

The Monterrey metropolitan area was selected as Chipotle’s entry point into Mexico due to its strong economy, growing population, and status as one of the country’s leading business and innovation hubs.

South Korea, Singapore Openings AheadThe Mexico entry adds to Chipotle’s growing international footprint, which includes more than 80 locations in Canada, 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany, alongside restaurants operated through partnerships in the Middle East and planned openings in South Korea and Singapore.

Chipotle currently operates more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new locations in 2026 as part of its “Recipe for Growth” strategy.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $41.95. Recent analyst moves include:

Citigroup: Buy (Lowers Target to $45.00) (July 13) Mizuho: Outperform (Raises Target to $41.00) (July 13) Chipotle Shares Edge Higher CMG Price Action: At the time of publication, Chipotle shares are trading 1.61% higher at $34.75, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) closed at $34.20 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.24% move from the prior day. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.51%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.47%.

Prior to today's trading, shares of the Mexican food chain had gained 8.69% outpaced the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.51% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.53%.

Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to go public on July 29, 2026. On that day, Chipotle Mexican Grill is projected to report earnings of $0.32 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 3.03%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $3.32 billion, indicating a 8.33% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $1.13 per share and revenue of $12.92 billion, indicating changes of -3.42% and +8.34%, respectively, compared to the previous year.

Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill should also be noted by investors. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.28% lower. At present, Chipotle Mexican Grill boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In terms of valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 30.69. This signifies a premium in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 20.14 for its industry.

We can also see that CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.24. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. Retail - Restaurants stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.95 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 182, positioning it in the bottom 27% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 4.94%) used to be a fantastic investment. Its shares jumped 368% during the five-year stretch leading up to their peak in June 2024. They have now come down 47% from that all-time record (as of July 14), as the current macro environment pressures consumer spending behavior.

It's time for investors to be patient and opportunistic, though. This consumer discretionary stock could double in five years. Store growth, strong profits, and a historically cheap valuation are the key variables investors must watch.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Management is focused on expansion Chipotle continues to drive physical expansion. Recently, this has occurred with third-party development partnerships in newer geographies. There's potential for hundreds of locations in the Middle East in the long run. Chipotle is opening its first store in Mexico this week. It's also eyeing the Asian market, specifically South Korea and Singapore.

The business ended the first quarter with 4,090 company-operated restaurants, showcasing the significant scale it has built over the years. That figure is projected to grow by about 350 this year.

On the first-quarter earnings call, CEO Scott Boatwright reiterated Chipotle's belief that North America can support 7,000 stores in the long run. As Chipotle's footprint keeps growing, the company is in a position to generate much higher revenue in the future.

Profitability can improve over time During Q1, Chipotle posted an operating margin of 12.9%, which came down from the 16.7% registered in the year-ago period. Inflationary pressure for beef and freight was handled with menu price increases that were lower than those implemented in prior years. It also hasn't helped that same-store sales were up just 0.5%.

The leadership team is also investing with an eye toward capturing greater efficiencies. This includes a new digital makeline display and using artificial intelligence to support employees.

On a restaurant-level basis, Chipotle's Q1 operating margin of 23.3% was still superb, even though the company is dealing with a difficult macro environment. Assuming the backdrop eventually stabilizes and returns to what we saw prior to 2025, a higher revenue base, coupled with operational improvements, can result in stronger earnings power over time.

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The current opportunity is attractive The valuation is the third reason this stock can double in five years. Shares currently trade at a historically cheap multiple. The recent price-to-earnings ratio of 33.7 is near a five-year low, and it has become 32% cheaper just in the past 12 months, presenting a compelling entry point.

Investor patience will be put to the test. But Chipotle does have what it takes to double by July 2031.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Chipotle is heading to Mexico, betting its American brand can win over consumers with its Mexican-inspired food. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright joins Bloomberg's The Close to discuss the restaurant chain's expansion plans.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +3.91%) was generating some heat on the stock market as the trading week opened on Monday. That sizzle came from news of expansion into a prime foreign market, and a bullish analyst update. These helped power Chipotle's shares to a nearly 4% gain, on a Monday that saw the benchmark S&P 500 index slump by 0.8%.

Crossing the border It might be surprising to learn that for a company with "Mexican" in its name, Chipotle has never operated a restaurant in Mexico.

Image source: Getty Images.

Until now, that is. The company announced that it will open one of its outlets in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, this Thursday, July 16. It is partnering with the country's top restaurant franchisee, Alsea, under a development agreement signed by the two companies in April 2025.

Chipotle said that it and Alsea will open more restaurants in Nuevo León at some point this year. They plan to do so in the national capital (and largest metropolitan area), Mexico City, in 2027.

Chipotle quoted its CEO, Scott Boatwright, as saying that "Our research has reinforced our belief that there is strong interest in high-quality, freshly prepared food served with the customization and convenience that Chipotle offers."

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Spoiled for choice Separately, Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan raised his Chipotle price target before market open on Monday. He added $1 per share to it for a new level of $41, and maintained his outperform (read "buy" recommendation).

Of the two developments, if I were a Chipotle shareholder, I'd be more encouraged about the Mexico news. Chipotle is a durable fast-casual restaurant concept, featuring a menu that's easy to manage yet still offers plenty of choice for diners. Management has always been cautious about foreign expansion; perhaps if the Mexico operations do well, it'll become bolder in the activity.

Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Chipotle and Alsea plan additional openings in Nuevo León this year and expansion into Mexico City in 2027 , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced that the first Chipotle restaurant in Mexico will open on Thursday, July 16 in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, in partnership with Alsea (BMV: ALSEA*), a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe. The opening marks a significant milestone in Chipotle's international growth strategy and introduces the company's menu of freshly prepared, customizable burritos, bowls, salads, tacos and quesadillas to guests in Mexico.

Chipotle's first restaurant in Mexico is located in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area. Opening on July 16, the restaurant marks Chipotle's entry into Mexico in partnership with Alsea and represents a significant milestone in the company's international growth strategy.

The Nuevo León restaurant will serve Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. This restaurant is the first location to open under the development agreement Chipotle and Alsea announced in April 2025. Building on this market entry, Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional restaurants in Nuevo León later this year and expand into Mexico City in 2027.

"We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country's culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence," said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer of Chipotle. "Our research has reinforced our belief that there is strong interest in high-quality, freshly prepared food served with the customization and convenience that Chipotle offers. Nuevo León is an ideal place to begin this journey, and with Alsea's operational expertise and deep local market knowledge, we look forward to serving new guests and earning a place in Mexico's vibrant dining culture."

"We've spent years evaluating opportunities to bring Chipotle to Mexico, and this week's opening reinforces our confidence in the market," said Nate Lawton, Chief Business Development Officer of Chipotle. "Our initial focus is on opening one great restaurant and learning alongside our guests and our partners at Alsea. This first location will serve as an important proof-of-concept, giving us the opportunity to better understand local consumer preferences as we thoughtfully grow in Mexico."

The new restaurant features Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with the same chef-led standards and classic cooking techniques that have shaped the brand since its founding. The company sources many of its ingredients from suppliers throughout the region and remains committed to serving real food made with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives. 

The Monterrey metropolitan area was selected as Chipotle's first location in Mexico due to its strong economy, growing population, and status as one of the country's leading business and innovation hubs. The restaurant represents the first step in Chipotle and Alsea's broader expansion strategy as the companies evaluate opportunities across Mexico's largest metropolitan markets.

"Bringing Chipotle to Mexico is an important step in our growth and portfolio diversification strategy. We are introducing an iconic brand with a differentiated value proposition that has resonated with millions of guests around the world, and we are confident it will be warmly welcomed by Mexican consumers. This week's opening reflects our confidence in Mexico's growth potential and our commitment to continuing to drive investment, job creation, and economic development in the communities where we operate," said Christian Gurría, Chief Executive Officer of Alsea.

Chipotle's Growing International Footprint 
Chipotle signed its first international development agreement in July 2023 with Alshaya Group to open restaurants in the Middle East. Alshaya Group currently operates 15 restaurants across the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. In September 2025, Chipotle announced a joint venture with SPC Group, a leading South Korean food and bakery company, to expand the brand into Asia for the first time, with plans to open its first restaurant in South Korea later this year and in Singapore early next year.

Chipotle's existing international portfolio of owned and operated restaurants includes more than 80 locations in Canada, 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany. The company currently operates more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026 as it continues to execute its "Recipe for Growth" strategy, including a target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada.

Chipotle's business development group, led by Chief Business Development Officer Nate Lawton, continues to evaluate strategic opportunities to accelerate the company's global growth through partnerships, joint ventures, and development agreements. Information on submitting a proposal can be found at https://ir.chipotle.com/contact-us.

About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,100 restaurants as of March 31, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. With over 135,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit chipotle.com.

About Alsea
Alsea is the leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe of global brands in the quick service, coffee shop and fast casual dining segments. It has a diversified portfolio, with brands such as Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, P.F. Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Archies, Foster's Hollywood, Gino's and Chipotle. The company operates more than 4,800 units in Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Uruguay and Paraguay. Alsea's business model includes support for its brands through a Shared Services Center that provides all the Administrative and Development Processes, as well as the Supply Chain.

For more information please visit: www.alsea.net

*Alsea shares are traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ALSEA

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the timing of opening the first and additional future Chipotle restaurants in Mexico, Chipotle's prospects for business in Mexico, the Middle East and Asia, Chipotle's plans to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026, and its "Recipe for Growth," including its target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. We use words such as "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "should," "may," "are confident" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.

SOURCE Chipotle Mexican Grill

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2026-07-12T09:28:01.253Z

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This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Jason Kidd, the chief operating officer at Chipotle, based in Newport Beach, California. It's been edited for length and clarity.

I'm the COO at Chipotle — and this is my dream job.

I love the ability to influence and interact with so many people. I spent about 20 years in retail before I got into the restaurant business, and I see a lot of similarities between the two. I don't know what I'd be doing if I weren't out there on the front line, shoulder to shoulder, seeing what's happening. That's the best part of the role.

I'm on the road about two to three days a week, and I visit roughly a dozen stores in each market. About three out of every four visits are planned, meaning I let the leadership team know one to two weeks in advance.

Chipotle wants to deliver a consistent experience for our guests. As leaders, we try to be consistent with our visits. We talk about the food, we talk about people, we talk about the results. It's important for our leadership, too. I'm consistent in how I show up and what we do.

Kidd said consistency is a top priority.  Marissa Leshnov for BI I travel two to three days a weekI would rather fly in the morning, and I like to go through TSA about 30 minutes before we board. I get to the airport at the very last minute. It's important to pack as much patience as possible when traveling. Nothing goes to plan, and you have to make the most of it.

I'm usually back from traveling on most weekends and on Mondays and Fridays.

I give my family a lot of credit, especially my wife. We've been together for 27 years. I wouldn't be nearly as successful if it weren't for her. We plan family vacations in advance and are very careful about taking them a couple of times a year. When I'm home, I'm present and intentional.

Kidd visits three or four restaurant locations a day. Marissa Leshnov for BI

He said roughly one out of every four restaurant visits is a surprise for employees. Marissa Leshnov for BI

I wake up before 6 a.m. and exerciseTaking care of myself is important. I usually work out between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m. I do strength exercise two days a week and cardio three days a week. I try to stay active, break a sweat, get the blood flowing. Travel is a huge part of the job, so I have to stay healthy.

While I'm working out, I listen to the Wall Street Journal's "What's News" podcast. It sets a good perspective on what's going on for the day, and I may read some articles that interest me. Then I'll go back and reference those later on in the morning.

I have a post-workout coffee and a small breakfastAfter my workout, I have a black coffee with a splash of cream and a small protein-based breakfast. I'm going to be eating Chipotle all day — I taste food at every restaurant, sampling guac, salsa, and proteins. So I make sure my breakfast is fairly light.

One of the first things I review at that time is our sales report from the day before. That gives me a snapshot of trends, how the business is performing, and what might need my attention that day.

I visit the first restaurant before 9 a.m.I like to get into a restaurant before 9 a.m. because I start the day while they're doing prep. I stay through opening at 10:45 a.m..

Every Chipotle restaurant prepares fresh food every day. They're hand-smashing guacamole. There's no can openers, no shortcuts.

It allows me to really see how the team is doing. The foundation for making a great day is making sure the prep goes well in the back of the house, shoulder to shoulder, tasting the food, observing preparation, and spending time with the team.

We go over KPIs for that specific restaurant and for the region or local area. We really interact with the people to make sure that they're genuinely interested in what they're doing.

Kidd arrives to his first restaurant before 9 a.m.  Marissa Leshnov for BI Consistency is a priorityKPIs are important, but showing consistency is, too.

In the first couple of hours in the restaurant, I love listening and observing what's working, what's not, and where teams need support.

I look for two key things at restaurants: Food and people. Is the food right? Are the people right? When I say people, I'm referring to our team members, our restaurant managers, and our guests.

Last year, we promoted 23,000 people, so we're constantly identifying internal talent during these visits. We observe how people show up and how they react.

I head to the next location for lunch at 11 a.m.Right after opening, I go to the next restaurant for a couple of hours.

My go-to order is a bowl with brown rice, black beans, chicken, and carnitas, hot salsa, tomato salsa, a little bit of sour cream, some guacamole, and a little bit of lettuce on top. I eat it almost every day, and I never get tired of it.

Kidd said he checks the restaurants he visits for consistency.  Marissa Leshnov for BI I stand in line with guests and interact with them. I buy lunch for the people around me, tell them who I am, and talk to them about how often they come to Chipotle, what they order, what they like about it, and what we can do better.

After lunch, we head to the back of the house and do a consistency check. We ask about the food, how prep went that morning, how KPIs are doing and trending, and what they need help with.

I go to another location around 1 p.m.Employees are typically super nervous because they want to put their best foot forward and show off what they can do. I try to put them at ease as soon as possible. When somebody says they're nervous, my favorite response is, "I am, too. Let's get through this."

I try to diffuse the nerves because the last thing I want to do is take away from their ability to do their job. I try to make it as informal as possible.

I spend about an hour driving aroundI'm also responsible for development and real estate. While we're traveling, I like to take the team to visit potential sites and look at new restaurants. I try to understand the market and get a feel for it.

Our long-term goal is to reach over 7,000 restaurants in the US and Canada. A big part of that is understanding the market and what's going on.

Kidd said that he tries to quickly put employees at ease during restaurant visits.  Marissa Leshnov for BI I catch up on calls and emails around 4:30 p.m.I spend the late afternoon connecting with direct reports, cross-functional partners, or peers. I also take time to recap the day with the team and determine whether any immediate action needs to be taken.

I connect with my family around 6 p.m.My family is incredibly important to me, and when I'm on the road, I try to stay connected. I call my wife around 6 p.m. and try to reach my college-aged kids. They're sometimes hard to pin down, but I'll try to reach out or trade texts.

I have dinner with the regional teamIf I'm on the road, I often have a roughly 90-minute dinner with three or four people from the regional team. Those conversations are important for getting to know people in a different way. Everybody has a story. I try to figure out what they want to do and whether they have aspirations to move up.

Kidd said he recharges by spending time with family and friends — and watching sports.  Marissa Leshnov for BI I end my night watching sportsI'm an avid sports fan, so if there's something on, I'll try to catch the end of a game before getting back to the hotel. I may read something before going to sleep around 11 p.m. Then, I do it all over the next day.

Family, friends, and time to myself help me rechargeI try to interact with friends who don't care about what I'm doing at work. Talking to other people about what's going on in their lives re-energizes me. Exercise also helps. I like to play golf and travel, and I like to do those things on a daily basis.

If I can sit down and watch 30 minutes of sports by myself, it also recharges me. When I'm running low, I need a little time to myself — and if I take that time, I'm recharged and ready to go.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is expected to report second quarter same-store sales roughly in line with Wall Street expectations, while momentum could improve in the second half of 2026 as pricing actions, menu innovation and operational initiatives begin to offset ongoing macroeconomic pressures, according to a preview note from UBS.

Ahead of Chipotle's July 29 earnings report, UBS said it expects second-quarter same-store sales growth of 1.2%, close to the consensus estimate of 1.3%.

The firm expects sales trends to have accelerated from the first quarter, supported by menu innovations including Cilantro Lime Sauce and Chipotle Honey Chicken, marketing initiatives such as the Summer of Extras campaign, and a potential boost from the FIFA World Cup.

The analysts said investor focus will likely be on third-quarter sales trends, upcoming limited-time offers, marketing initiatives, catering expansion, operational improvements and efforts to strengthen the company's value proposition.

While UBS expects macroeconomic headwinds to persist, particularly among consumers earning less than $100,000 annually, younger consumers and Hispanic consumers, it believes Chipotle is positioned for stronger same-store sales and transaction growth in the second half of the year.

The firm cited additional limited-time menu offerings, an enhanced marketing strategy, digital initiatives, the April relaunch of Chipotle Rewards and broader catering rollout expected by the fourth quarter as potential growth drivers. UBS also noted the company's high-efficiency equipment package could generate meaningful improvements in comparable sales through operational gains.

UBS expects Chipotle's pricing strategy to remain effective, with full-year pricing likely to finish toward the upper end of the company's 1% to 2% target range. The firm forecasts 2026 same-store sales growth of 1.4%.

On profitability, UBS models second-quarter restaurant-level margins of 25%, down about 230 basis points from a year earlier due primarily to higher beef, dairy and avocado costs. However, it expects margins to improve during the second half of 2026 as food inflation eases and pricing actions increasingly offset cost pressures.

UBS forecasts second-quarter earnings per share of $0.32 and full-year 2026 earnings per share of $1.15.

The firm maintained a $45 price target, saying a return to stronger transaction and sales momentum could provide upside for the shares. This implies upside from current levels of about $35.

In the latest trading session, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) closed at $34.35, marking a +1.09% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.45%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.25%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.16%.

The stock of Mexican food chain has risen by 16.09% in the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 0.18% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.14%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on July 29, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.32, signifying a 3.03% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $3.32 billion, up 8.25% from the year-ago period.

For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $1.13 per share and a revenue of $12.91 billion, representing changes of -3.42% and +8.28%, respectively, from the prior year.

It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.

Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.36% lower. Right now, Chipotle Mexican Grill possesses a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell).

From a valuation perspective, Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 30.14. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 20.01.

One should further note that CMG currently holds a PEG ratio of 2.2. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. Retail - Restaurants stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.98 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 206, finds itself in the bottom 17% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

To follow CMG in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) and McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) just closed earnings cycles that exposed a widening split inside fast food. Chipotle posted its first full year of negative comps. McDonald’s printed broad traffic recovery powered by value menus. Both feed millions weekly, yet their balance sheets, customers, and pricing playbooks barely rhyme.

Negative Comps for Chipotle, Value Wins for McDonald’s Chipotle’s Q4 2025 told a tough story. Comparable sales fell 2.5% with transactions down 3.2%, even as the chain opened a record 334 restaurants for the year. Restaurant-level margin compressed to 23.4% from 24.8%, pinched by wage inflation and softer volumes. CEO Scott Boatwright framed it as “a year of progress and resilience,” leaning on the “Recipe for Growth” playbook, a high-protein menu, and a Chipotle Rewards relaunch. Digital still drove 37.2% of food and beverage sales.

McDonald’s Q1 2026 looked like the opposite chart. Global comps jumped 3.8%, U.S. comps rose 3.9% on positive check growth, and revenue climbed 9.4% to $6.52B. Loyalty members spent over $9B in the quarter alone, part of a $38B trailing twelve-month base. CEO Chris Kempczinski credited “value leadership, breakthrough marketing, and menu innovation.”

Premium Fortress vs. Value Warrior Lens Chipotle McDonald’s Core Bet Premium fast-casual, unit growth Value menus, franchised scale Store Model 100% company-owned ~90% franchised margin mix Shareholders’ Equity +$2.83B -$1.79B deficit Capital Return $2.43B buybacks FY25, no dividend $1.86/sh dividend, steady buybacks The customer overlap is thinner than it looks. Chipotle’s base skews higher-income and less price-sensitive, viewing its fast-casual burritos as a healthier, premium utility, which lets management push price without bleeding traffic the way a Big Mac promo cycle would. McDonald’s is trapped in a brutal, margin-destroying value war to recover diners priced out by inflation, a strategy that works for the parent’s royalty stream but squeezes franchisee economics.

What I’m Watching Through 2026 Chipotle guided to roughly flat comps with 350 to 370 new openings. I will watch whether the high-protein menu and Rewards relaunch can finally reverse the transaction slide. McDonald’s expects net expansion to add ~2.5% to systemwide sales and operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range. The question for me is whether value pricing keeps lifting check without breaking franchisee math, particularly with interest expense guided 4-6% higher.

Why I Lean Chipotle for the Patient Investor If you want defensive scale, a 2.69% yield, and a global loyalty flywheel, McDonald’s keeps doing what it does. I respect the execution. Still, I lean Chipotle here. The negative comps sting, yet positive equity, $350.5M in cash, a $1.7B buyback runway, and genuine pricing power on a premium menu give it room to fix traffic without discounting itself into a corner. I would change my view if 2026 comps stay negative through midyear, because at that point the unit growth story stops covering for the brand.

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald's didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Two Very Different Decades Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) both rewarded long-term holders through the 2010s, but their recent chapters have diverged sharply.

Under Satya Nadella, Microsoft pivoted from a Windows and Office licensing shop into a cloud-and-AI platform anchored by Azure, which crossed $75 billion in FY2025 revenue, up 34%. A restructured OpenAI partnership left Microsoft with a roughly 27% stake valued near $135 billion and an AI business running at a $37 billion annualized revenue run rate, up 123% year over year. Acquisitions of LinkedIn, GitHub, and Activision Blizzard reshaped the mix.

Chipotle’s trajectory is more complicated. Brian Niccol’s turnaround introduced Chipotlanes, digital ordering, and a loyalty program, then a 50-for-1 split in June 2024 followed his exit to Starbucks. New CEO Scott Boatwright inherited a brand that just posted its first full year of negative comparable sales, with FY2025 comps sliding and Q4 transactions down 3.2%.

What $1,000 Actually Did Using split-adjusted total returns through the most recent close, here is what a $1,000 investment in either stock became over the past decade, compared to the S&P 500 gain:

Period Microsoft Chipotle S&P 500 1 Year $802 (−19.85%) $623 (−37.66%) $1,200 (+20.04%) 5 Year $1,466 (+46.56%) $1,130 (+12.97%) $1,717 (+71.72%) 10 Year $8,633 (+763.30%) $4,492 (+349.21%) $3,548 (+254.79%) A $1,000 stake in Microsoft a decade ago outpaced the index, roughly tripling the S&P’s return. Chipotle also beat the market over 10 years, but nearly the entire lead was banked before 2022. Both stocks have lagged badly in the past year, with Microsoft caught in an AI capex hangover (Q3 FY26 capex hit $30.88 billion, up 84.39%) and Chipotle punished for declining traffic.

Looking Ahead Where to put $1,000 today? Into Microsoft if you believe the $627 billion commercial RPO backlog converts into durable operating leverage as AI capex normalizes. Analysts have a consensus price target of $561.11, and the forward P/E near 20x looks reasonable. On the other hand, avoid it if OpenAI-related losses keep compounding and Azure growth decelerates below 30%.

The bull case for Chipotle is if Boatwright’s “Recipe for Growth” restores positive transactions and the runway toward 7,000 restaurants holds. But beware the 32x trailing earnings multiple while comps stay flat and margins compress.

The question is whether the AI infrastructure story and backlog are more attractive than a potential burrito turnaround.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Chipotle's menu innovation, rewards momentum and expansion plans support growth. Yet, food and labor inflation remain headwinds.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this Mexican food chain have returned +16.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change. During this period, the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, which Chipotle falls in, has gained 1.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Chipotle is expected to post earnings of $0.32 per share, indicating a change of -3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.13 points to a change of -3.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.1%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.35 indicates a change of +19.5% from what Chipotle is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.4%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Chipotle.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

In the case of Chipotle, the consensus sales estimate of $3.32 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +8.3%. The $12.93 billion and $14.31 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +8.4% and +10.7%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryChipotle reported revenues of $3.09 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.4%. EPS of $0.24 for the same period compares with $0.29 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.41%. The EPS surprise was 0%.

Over the last four quarters, Chipotle surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.

ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Chipotle is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Chipotle. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Key Takeaways CAVA benefits from traffic gains, strong new-restaurant productivity and an improved 2026 outlook.CMG is using technology, loyalty and menu innovation to support execution and long-term growth.Consensus sees faster 2026 sales growth for CAVA, while CMG faces lower EPS estimates and weaker revisions. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) and CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) remain two key contenders in fast casual, but their operating profiles are distinctly different. Chipotle is a scaled category leader, supported by broad brand awareness, strong restaurant economics, digital depth, a debt-free balance sheet and a sizable long-term restaurant runway. CAVA, meanwhile, is still in an earlier phase of national expansion, supported by traffic-led momentum and a differentiated position as the leader in Mediterranean fast casual.

For investors, the debate comes down to a clear question: Is Chipotle’s scale and proven operating model more compelling, or does CAVA’s faster growth and category momentum offer the stronger edge? Let’s analyze.

The Case for CMG StockChipotle remains one of the most established operators in fast casual, with a large domestic footprint and a long-term goal of reaching 7,000 restaurants in North America. The company also continues to pursue international growth, including partner-operated openings in Mexico and South Korea, while Singapore is likely to open in 2027. Europe remains a longer-term opportunity, supported by positive comps across countries and continued restaurant development. In the Middle East, geopolitical conditions may delay some partner-operated openings, although CMG’s long-term view of the region remains intact.

The company’s Recipe for Growth strategy is focused on strengthening the core business, improving execution, expanding digital capabilities, accelerating menu innovation, developing talent and broadening global access. A key part of that strategy is operational improvement. Chipotle is rolling out high-efficiency equipment, including dual-sided planchas, three-pan rice cookers and high-capacity fryers, to improve prep, throughput and culinary consistency. The equipment is already in more than 600 restaurants, with a target of 2,000 by year-end, and the company is seeing benefits translate into hundreds of basis points of comp-sales improvement in markets where it has been deployed.

Technology and loyalty are also important elements of Chipotle’s growth case. Chipotle Kitchen, its digital make-line display, is designed to improve accuracy, speed and consistency, and the company expects to roll it out across all restaurants by year-end. Ava Cado, its AI assistant, is being expanded from hiring support into operational insights, scheduling, prep planning and cook-to-needs guidance. Rewards also remain a major opportunity, as only about 20% of in-restaurant transactions are linked to the program compared with nearly 90% of app transactions. Recent in-restaurant enrollment efforts have already lifted daily enrollees by nearly 25%.

Menu innovation is helping Chipotle defend traffic and frequency. The high-protein lineup — Chicken Al Pastor and Cilantro Lime Sauce — supported incremental transactions, while Chipotle Honey Chicken adds another limited-time offering to sustain engagement. Add-on protein reached nearly one-fourth of all transactions and remained elevated, reinforcing Chipotle’s protein-led positioning. Group occasions also remain underpenetrated, with catering and Build Your Own Chipotle representing more than 2% of combined sales, while the company sees potential for these occasions to become a double-digit sales mix over time.

However, Chipotle’s near-term setup is more measured. The company maintained a comparable sales outlook of about flat, reflecting a cautious view of the consumer environment. Profitability remains pressured by cost inflation in items such as beef and freight, along with wage pressure, benefits expense, marketing, utilities and delivery costs.

The Case for CAVA StockCAVA offers a faster-growth investment profile, supported by strong traffic trends, expanding brand awareness and a differentiated Mediterranean platform. The company’s latest results showed continued momentum, with same-restaurant sales growth driven by positive traffic. CAVA has maintained a measured value stance, taking a modest January price increase while keeping base bowl and pita pricing flat.

Restaurant expansion remains the central driver of CAVA’s long-term story. The company ended the first quarter with 459 restaurants across 29 states and the District of Columbia, while new restaurant productivity remained above 100% and systemwide average unit volumes reached $3 million. Recent entries into Cincinnati, St. Louis and Columbus, along with a planned entry into Minneapolis, highlight CAVA’s opportunity to expand into new geographies while building density in existing markets.

CAVA is also using menu innovation to deepen guest engagement. The return of roasted white sweet potato resonated with guests, while Pomegranate-Glazed Salmon marked the company’s first seafood offering. Salmon broadens the protein platform and fits naturally within the Mediterranean positioning of the brand. Although the item is expected to pressure the margin rate, it is priced to be penny-profit neutral, supporting profit-dollar contribution while expanding guest choice.

Operational infrastructure is becoming increasingly important as CAVA scales. CavaCore, the company’s modern data platform, and CAVA Current, its real-time commerce platform, are designed to improve visibility, order processing, personalization and demand planning across restaurants. CAVA is also investing in talent development through its Flavor Your Future platform and Assistant General Manager rollout. Restaurants with AGM coverage are outperforming those without, supporting the company’s focus on maintaining execution quality as it expands.

CAVA has raised its full-year 2026 outlook. The company now expects 75-77 net new restaurant openings, compared with prior guidance of 74-76. Same Restaurant Sales growth is expected to be in the range of 4.5%-6.5%, up from the prior projection of 3%-5%. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $181-$191 million, up from $176-$184 million. The company also noted that second-quarter trends are tracking in line with the first quarter and above the revised full-year range, while still embedding moderation later in the year. This framing supports a forward view that balances current momentum with a more cautious macro backdrop.

However, CAVA’s faster growth comes with execution and cost risks. The outlook includes a 20-40-basis-point headwind tied to elevated energy costs and an approximately 100-basis-point restaurant margin-rate drag from the national salmon rollout. Labor investments, higher preopening costs and third-party delivery mix are also factors to watch.

How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CMG & CAVA?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2026 sales indicates a rise of 8.4% year over year, while earnings per share (EPS) suggest a decline of 3.4% from the prior-year figure. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have declined 0.9%.

CMG Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2026 sales and EPS suggests year-over-year increases of 26.2% and 1.9%, respectively. In the past 60 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have increased 5.8%.

CAVA Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance & Valuation of CMG & CAVACMG stock has declined 10.9% in the past six months against the industry's growth of 0.5%. Meanwhile, CAVA shares have gained 39.5% in the same time frame.

CMG & CAVA Stock Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Chipotle is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.11, below the industry average of 3.31 over the last year. CAVA's forward 12-month P/S multiple sits at 5.84 over the same time frame.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Our TakeChipotle and CAVA offer contrasting investment profiles in the fast-casual space. Chipotle remains the more established operator, supported by scale, brand recognition, digital engagement, restaurant technology and a sizable long-term unit-growth runway. However, its near-term setup is more restrained, with flat comparable sales guidance, cost pressures and downward earnings estimate revisions.

CAVA, in contrast, offers the faster-growth profile, supported by traffic-led same-restaurant sales growth, strong new-restaurant productivity and an improved 2026 outlook. Its measured value stance, menu innovation and expanding national footprint strengthen the operating story. This is also reflected in its estimate revision trend and relative stock performance.

Although CAVA trades at a premium valuation and faces salmon-related margin pressure, its stronger growth trajectory gives it the better edge in this faceoff. With both stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present, CAVA appears better positioned from an operating-momentum standpoint, while Chipotle remains a high-quality long-term compounder with a more measured near-term profile. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1.62%) issued a 50-for-1 split on June 26, 2024, making its then roughly $3,000 share price more affordable. But that almost marked the peak. The stock is currently down 53% from its all-time high.

It wasn't the split, but rather weakening sales performance in the business itself that followed the departure of former CEO Brian Niccol. Here are three reasons Chipotle has fallen from its pedestal.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

1. Slowing revenue growth Since 2024, Chipotle's revenue growth has declined amid inflationary costs and weak comparable sales. When the company issued its stock split, revenue was up 18% year over year in Q2 2024. Comp sales grew 11%, with transaction growth up 8.7%.

In May 2025, there was a noticeable slowdown in underlying business trends amid weakening consumer sentiment. For the full year, revenue grew just 5% over 2024, with comp sales declining by 1.7%.

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2. Higher costs pressured margins As sales weakened, Chipotle faced higher costs for rent, labor, and food ingredients. As a result, restaurant-level margin fell from 26.7% in 2024 to 25.4% in 2025. The company is still struggling to offset higher costs, with restaurant-level margins down to 23.7% in the first quarter of 2026.

Chipotle might have compounded this problem by lowering prices for some items. It prioritized keeping traffic up at the expense of its bottom line. Quarterly earnings peaked at $0.33 in Q2 2024. In Q1 2026, the company reported a 17% year-over-year decrease in earnings, falling to $0.23.

3. Uncertainty from leadership change Niccol took the CEO job at Starbucks in September 2024. While Chipotle's weakening performance is most correlated with the broader weakness in consumer spending, a change in CEO always creates uncertainty about the future, which can impact a company's valuation.

There's a reason Starbucks chose Niccol to lead its turnaround. Niccol proved to be a superb business operator at Chipotle. Under his leadership from 2018 through the third quarter of 2024, Chipotle more than doubled its revenue and doubled its operating profit margin. From the end of 2014 through Q3 2024, the stock returned 567%.

After the recent collapse, Chipotle stock is now trading at its lowest price-to-earnings ratio in years. It could be a great time to buy, but time will tell whether the new CEO, Scott Boatwright, is as successful as Niccol. The latest results showed improvement in top-line growth. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year, with comp sales up 0.5%.

Still, until costs get under control and earnings improve, the stock will likely remain discounted. Investors should watch for signs that food inflation is waning, as that would mark a catalyst for stronger margins and earnings.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $31.69, demonstrating a +2.39% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.1% loss on the day. At the same time, the Dow added 0.35%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.43%.

The Mexican food chain's shares have seen a decrease of 4.21% over the last month, surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 6.49% and falling behind the S&P 500's loss of 1.34%.

Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on July 29, 2026. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.32, signifying a 3.03% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $3.32 billion, reflecting a 8.25% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $1.13 per share and revenue of $12.93 billion. These totals would mark changes of -3.42% and +8.4%, respectively, from last year.

Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.07% higher. Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Digging into valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 27.35. This signifies a premium in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 18.89 for its industry.

We can additionally observe that CMG currently boasts a PEG ratio of 1.99. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. Retail - Restaurants stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.88 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 191, positioning it in the bottom 22% of all 250+ industries.

The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

To follow CMG in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.

Chipotle (CMG +1.89%) is accelerating the pace of development.

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 20, 2026. The video was published on June 22, 2026.

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short June 2026 $36 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $31.86, demonstrating a -2.3% change from the preceding day's closing price. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.98%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.35%.

The stock of Mexican food chain has fallen by 1.3% in the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 2.86% and undershooting the S&P 500's gain of 1.56%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on July 29, 2026. On that day, Chipotle Mexican Grill is projected to report earnings of $0.32 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 3.03%. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $3.32 billion, reflecting a 8.25% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.

For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $1.13 per share and a revenue of $12.93 billion, signifying shifts of -3.42% and +8.4%, respectively, from the last year.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.

Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.07% higher. Chipotle Mexican Grill presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Chipotle Mexican Grill has a Forward P/E ratio of 28.82 right now. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 19.48.

It's also important to note that CMG currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.1. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. The Retail - Restaurants industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.84 as trading concluded yesterday.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 205, this industry ranks in the bottom 16% of all industries, numbering over 250.

The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.

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Fast-casual chains like Chipotle and Cava are gaining ground amid the K-shaped economic recovery. Dixie D. Vereen/For The Washington Post via Getty Images The old recession playbook said consumers under financial pressure would trade down to the cheapest meal they could find.

That's not what's happening these days.

Instead, Americans are eating out less often, scrutinizing every restaurant purchase, and concentrating their spending among a shrinking group of perceived winners. And increasingly, those winners look a lot like Chipotle and Cava.

A year ago, fast-casual chains built around customizable bowls and salads were among the restaurant industry's biggest casualties thanks to stretched consumers. Diners balked at lunch tabs creeping past $20, traffic slowed, and executives spent much of 2025 talking about value.

Now, those same chains are pulling away from the rest of the pack.

The shift reflects a broader K-shaped economy that has upended traditional restaurant wisdom. Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore previously told Business Insider that restaurant chains have been dealing with softer demand among lower-income consumers for years, while spending among higher-income households has remained resilient. That dynamic has helped casual dining outperform parts of the quick-service sector and complicated the assumption that consumers under pressure automatically migrate to the cheapest options.

A worthwhile splurgeConsumer Edge's 2026 restaurant outlook describes a "barbell-shaped recovery" in which consumers are increasingly either trading down into value-oriented quick-service restaurants or trading up for experiences they believe are worth the money, while the middle gets squeezed. In that environment, brands like Chipotle and Cava are "regaining momentum through innovation and improved value perception," the report says.

The report found consumers are allocating a larger share of food spending to groceries while becoming more deliberate about restaurant visits. When they do spend, they're rewarding brands that offer a compelling combination of quality, convenience, portion size, and perceived value.

Chipotle's recent menu innovations include its traffic-driving high-protein menu, chicken al pastor, cilantro-lime sauce, and the return of its Chipotle Honey Chicken limited-time offer.  Bloomberg/Getty Images That distinction matters — because it isn't that Chipotle and Cava suddenly became cheap. It's that diners increasingly see them as a better use of their restaurant budget than many alternatives.

Consumer Edge found that for transactions above $30, Chipotle and Cava were among the brands gaining share, while pizza chains and chicken chains lost ground. The report said consumers are reallocating larger-ticket spending away from traditional shareable formats and toward "healthier, higher-quality customizable fast casual options."

Executives at both companies are leaning into that shift.

Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said during the company's Q1 earnings call that Chipotle's "recipe for growth" strategy is gaining traction, helped by a steady drumbeat of menu innovation, including the high-protein menu, chicken al pastor, cilantro-lime sauce, and the return of Chipotle Honey Chicken.

He said Chipotle continues to price below inflation because "reinforcing our value proposition is the right thing to do in this environment."

During Cava's Q1 call, CEO Brett Schulman pointed to broad-based demand and said lower-income customer cohorts continue to outperform "as we bridge this K-shaped economy."

The Mediterranean chain raised its full-year outlook after first-quarter same-restaurant sales rose 9.7%, driven primarily by traffic growth.

Consumer spending is still softNot every fast-casual chain is sharing in the rebound.

Other fast-casual chains like Sweetgreen are not seeing the same boost as Chipotle and Cava.  Bloomberg/Getty Images Consumer Edge found stronger performance at Chipotle and Cava, offset by softer results at Sweetgreen, Panera Bread, and smaller concepts. While the category overall remained roughly flat, the report said larger players had managed to "rehabilitate perceived value" through menu innovation and pricing discipline, while weaker brands continued losing traffic.

Customer-satisfaction data tells a similar story. The American Customer Satisfaction Index said consumers are spending "more selectively" and placing greater emphasis on "consistency, reliability, and perceived value" rather than simply chasing the lowest price. Brands that consistently deliver are gaining ground; those that don't are getting left behind.

The consumer hasn't bounced back, and restaurant traffic hasn't magically returned. Americans are still cutting back.

However, in an industry where diners are questioning every meal away from home, the customizable bowl has become one of the few splurges that still feels justified.

Read next

Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert is a senior reporter on Business Insider's West Coast team. When she's not writing about trending business and tech news, from the latest supply chain snarls or advancements in AI, she covers the food and restaurant industries, specifically companies such as Starbucks and McDonald's.Some of her prior areas of focus have included coverage of the Supreme Court and emerging technologies such as quantum computing.Katherine has worked on award-nominated projects and has appeared on Good Morning America, NBC, CNN, and other outlets to discuss her reporting.Prior to joining Business Insider, she covered retail, hospitality, and nonprofits at the San Fernando Valley Business Journal and received a master's degree in investigative reporting from the University of Southern California.Reach outDo you have feedback or a story tip? Contact Katherine on Signal at byktl.50, or email her at [email protected] her on Twitter and Instagram @scrawlgirl.Some of her recent scoops, exclusives, and original stories include: Starbucks set up a new office. It's a 5-minute drive from the CEO's California home.Inside Starbucks' crackdown on cup notesEndless Shrimp was Red Lobster's rock bottom. Now it's clawing back.Chipotle's new PAC signals a change in how the company engages in politicsKFC lost its footing in the Chicken Wars. Now it's gunning for a 'Kentucky Fried Comeback.'A few other highlights include: Clarence Thomas raised him 'as a son.' Now he's facing 25-plus years on weapons and drug charges.Call her Ivanka Kushner'Maybe I'll just resign:' Federal workers react to DOGE productivity emailSpaceX launches cause late-night booms that rattle windows, set off car alarms, and may damage property. Locals are pushing back.The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Food Restaurants

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.

Shares of this Mexican food chain have returned -9.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.4% change. The Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Chipotle belongs, has lost 5.9% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Chipotle is expected to post earnings of $0.32 per share, indicating a change of -3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.13 points to a change of -3.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +0.1%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.36 indicates a change of +19.8% from what Chipotle is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.3%.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Chipotle is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

For Chipotle, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $3.32 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +8.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $12.93 billion and $14.34 billion estimates indicate +8.4% and +10.9% changes, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryChipotle reported revenues of $3.09 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.4%. EPS of $0.24 for the same period compares with $0.29 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.41%. The EPS surprise was 0%.

Over the last four quarters, Chipotle surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.

ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Chipotle is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Chipotle. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.