Akcie Chipotle v pátek klesly o 2,63 % na nové 52týdenní minimum 27,40 USD poté, co analytici snížili své cílové ceny kvůli obavám ze zpomalujícího růstu tržeb.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shares are sliding Friday. A fresh round of analyst price target cuts adds to concerns over slowing sales.
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock is testing key support levels. What’s pressuring CMG? Chipotle Stock Falls as Analysts Cut TargetsChipotle trades around $27.34, below its previous 52-week low of $27.87 and down from a 52-week high of $42.74. Chipotle has fallen around 2.81% today, extending a slide that totals approximately 8.50% over five days and 16.39% over a month. Over six months, the stock is down roughly 19.32%.
Evercore ISI Group analyst David Palmer lowered the price target to $40 Friday while keeping an Outperform rating.
More news today includes Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan, who also kept Outperform and brought the price target down to $37 from $43.
TD Cowen Downgrades Chipotle Over Slower SalesTD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles started the wave of cuts Wednesday with a downgrade to Hold from Buy and a lower price target of $32, down from $44.
Charles points to weak October demand as a threat to the fourth-quarter rebound that investors expect. Charles cautioned that sales are “slowing,” which raises questions about Chipotle’s ability to boost customer traffic and deliver on Wall Street’s 2027 growth hopes.
Street forecasts for 2027 call for same-store sales growth above 3%. Charles argues Chipotle may need untested levers, such as catering and more efficient restaurant equipment, to reach it, even with new menu items, marketing and loyalty programs.
Wells Fargo and Citigroup Also Cut TargetsWells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem reduced the price target to $40 from $45 Wednesday and kept an Overweight rating. Citigroup analyst Jon Tower made a similar move Monday, lowering the target to $43 from $45 and maintaining Buy.
Benzinga’s consensus from 19 analysts is a Buy rating, with a $40.74 average target. Targets run from $32 to $53.
Chipotle releases third-quarter results on October 28, 2026. Wall Street models earnings of 29 cents per share, matching the year-ago figure, and sales climbing to $3.28 billion from $3 billion.
CMG Shares Are SlidingCMG Price Action: Chipotle shares were down 2.63% at $27.40 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is trading at a new 52-week low, according to Benzinga Pro.
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Společnost Chipotle má ve třetím čtvrtletí vykázat tržby ve výši 3,29 miliardy USD, což představuje meziroční nárůst o 9,5 %, ale marže na úrovni restaurací má klesnout o 80 bazických bodů na 25 %.
Key Takeaways Chipotle to report Q3 results Oct. 28, 2026, with revenues expected to rise 9.5% to $3.29 billion.Menu innovation, digital rewards, restaurant expansion and pricing are expected to support sales growth.Higher beef, freight, wage and operating costs could pressure margins, projected to fall 80 bps to 25%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.
CMG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing three out of four quarters and reported in line once, the average surprise being 2.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of CMGThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 29 cents, flat year over year.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.29 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 9.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape CMG’s Quarterly ResultsChipotle’s third-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from continued menu innovation, improved restaurant execution and efforts to strengthen customer engagement. The company’s Recipe for Growth strategy focuses on driving transaction growth through better food quality, generous portions, faster service and enhanced hospitality. The return of popular limited-time offerings and investments in high-efficiency kitchen equipment are expected to have supported customer traffic and repeat visits. However, softer restaurant industry trends and cautious consumer spending might have limited the extent of sales growth.
Menu innovation is likely to have remained an important revenue driver for Chipotle in the third quarter. The successful return of Chipotle Honey Chicken, along with sustained demand for Cilantro Lime Sauce, has helped attract new customers and encouraged existing guests to visit more frequently. The company has also been emphasizing high-protein offerings to capitalize on consumer interest in protein-rich meals.
Chipotle’s refreshed marketing strategy, including culturally relevant promotions and the Matchday BOGO campaign, has helped strengthen brand engagement. Further, the company's focus on communicating the quality of its ingredients and the value of the offerings might have supported customer acquisition and spending.
Chipotle’s digital initiatives and restaurant expansion are also likely to have contributed to third-quarter sales. The revamped Rewards program, personalized offers and Summer of Extras campaign are expected to have encouraged repeat purchases and improved customer frequency. Efforts to simplify loyalty enrollment and enhance digital ordering might have further strengthened engagement.
Meanwhile, the rollout of its high-efficiency equipment package (“HEEP”) has been improving kitchen productivity, order fulfillment and service speed, potentially allowing restaurants to serve more customers during peak periods. New restaurant openings, including locations equipped with Chipotlanes, are likely to have supported overall revenue growth. In addition, gradual menu price increases are expected to have provided a further lift to sales. Our model predicts Food and Beverage as well as Delivery Service revenues to increase 8.5% and 10.5% year over year.
Chipotle’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is likely to have received support from higher menu prices, improved restaurant throughput and operating efficiencies associated with HEEP. Management expects pricing to contribute in the mid-2% range during the quarter, helping offset some inflationary pressure.
However, elevated beef, freight and other ingredient costs, along with wage inflation, might have weighed on restaurant-level margins. Higher marketing investments, insurance, maintenance and utility expenses are also likely to have pressured profitability. Management anticipated restaurant-level operating costs to remain elevated, with other operating costs expected in the mid-15% range.
Additionally, tougher year-over-year comparisons, consumer caution and the potential sales impact of the cyclospora-related industry concerns might have constrained operating leverage. Thus, although pricing and operational improvements might have provided some relief, persistent cost pressures are likely to have remained a challenge for margins.
Our model predicts third-quarter restaurant-level margins to decline 80 basis points year over year to 25%.
What Our Model Says About CMG StockOur proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for CMG: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of -0.39%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Chipotle’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, SBUX’s earnings are expected to increase 40.4% year over year. SBUX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 3.7% year-over-year decline. SG’s earnings lagged estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 43%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 29% year-over-year increase. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.2%.
TD Cowen just yanked its Buy rating on Chipotle as food-safety concerns pile up alongside slowing traffic, leaving investors to wonder whether the burrito chain's promised green shoots can survive the scrutiny of its next earnings report.
TD Cowen’s step back from Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) puts a spotlight on the burrito chain’s slowing sales momentum, and the losses are concentrated in Chipotle shares. Chipotle stock is at $28.21, down 5%, a drop that shows how little patience the market has left for a slow traffic recovery.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) stock is at $243.43, down 1%, and Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) stock is at $149.81, also down 1%, both far smaller declines than Chipotle’s. That gap offers the best early read on the TD Cowen downgrade.
Food stocks more broadly are barely reacting. The Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (NYSEARCA:PBJ) is at $47.44, down 0.5%, a slight move for a fund that doesn’t own Chipotle, McDonald’s or Yum! Brands. By contrast, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is at $769.22 and essentially unmoved, which confirms that the pressure sits with Chipotle stock.
TD Cowen Downgrade Hits Chipotle’s Sales Story TD Cowen downgraded Chipotle stock to Hold from Buy on October 21 and cut its price target to $32 from $44. Even after that cut, the new target sits above where Chipotle stock trades, so the move to Hold reflects a more neutral stance on upside.
On its second-quarter 2026 call in late July, Chipotle guided for only modest growth in comparable restaurant sales for Q3 2026 and said an industrywide cyclospora issue was weighing on results. Chief executive Scott Boatwright stated that the products involved weren’t used on its menu, though the company still absorbed the sales hit. In early August, Chipotle added that its annual targets didn’t include the financial impact of a salmonella outbreak in Minnesota.
Chipotle’s Ownership Model Magnifies the Hit Chipotle owns and operates its locations, so soft sales flow straight through to restaurant-level profit. At McDonald’s and Yum! Brands, franchise fees make up much of the income, cushioning both from those swings. Yet, neither stock is trading in positive territory, a reminder that the fee-based model doesn’t fully protect shareholders.
Taken together, the selloff in Chipotle stock reads as a company-specific verdict on its own sales momentum. Boatwright said Chipotle’s growth initiatives were showing “green shoots of positive momentum,” a view now facing a tougher test.
New limited-time proteins, faster kitchen equipment and a revamped rewards program are the levers Chipotle cited on that summer call for lifting traffic. Those tools could support a rebound if the food-safety challenges fade. Skeptics counter that the salmonella hit isn’t reflected in the company’s targets.
Chipotle’s Third-Quarter Report Sets the Next Test Chipotle now faces the question of whether its upcoming third-quarter report shows comparable restaurant sales stabilizing. A steadier trend could help Chipotle shares close some of the gap with TD Cowen’s reduced target, while another soft quarter may reinforce the firm’s neutral stance.
Recovery potential in Chipotle stock is real if traffic rebounds. However, the downgrade and the food-safety concern argue for investors to size their positions modestly until the sales slowdown resolves.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie Chipotle do 14. října letošního roku klesly o 18 % a od maxima z června 2024 o 56 %, přestože tržby ve srovnatelných restauracích ve 2. čtvrtletí vzrostly o 2,2 %.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +0.20%) is a restaurant industry pioneer. It popularized the fast-casual dining concept. The focus on fresh, customizable food, fast service, and reasonable prices has made the business a household name.
Shares have been feeling the heat. As of Oct. 14, they have fallen 18% in 2026 and are 56% off their record from June 2024. The rest of the year may tell a different story.
Here's what history says the fourth quarter will bring for this restaurant stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Past trends reveal mixed performance This decade, the performance of Chipotle's shares has been up and down in Q4. In the fourth quarters of 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, the stock fell by single digits. However, in 2020 (+12%) and 2023 (+25%), shares posted double-digit returns. So far this month, they have dropped by over 4%. Q4 2026 is off to a slow start.
At the same time, the S&P 500 index has climbed almost 1%. The positive view is that by the end of this year, Chipotle will end Q4 with a strong gain. This will continue the every-three-year streak, as the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2023 saw winning results.
Navigating a weaker industry As mentioned, Chipotle shares have been cut by more than half since the summer of 2024. At that time, it was clear that the stock was extremely expensive. It traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 73.2. Expectations were sky-high. That's not surprising, given that net income surged 183% from first-quarter 2021 to Q1 2024. The business was hitting its stride.
In recent years, Chipotle has been rattled by weaker conditions in the industry. The fast-casual segment, and the overall restaurant sector, have seen consumers pull back, particularly among households making less than $100,000 in annual income.
Furthermore, making food at home has become a more cost-conscious decision. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data from 2025, the value proposition of buying groceries widened compared to eating out.
In 2025, Chipotle reported a rare same-store sales (SSS) decline of 1.7%. That improved to a gain of 0.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in the second quarter (ended June 30) of this year. The leadership team expects SSS to rise in the low single digits for the full year.
Profitability has come under pressure. Costs have increased due to labor and food inflation. The unit-level operating margin was 25.2% in the most recent quarter. That's down 220 basis points from the same period last year.
In order to right the ship and position the business for faster growth, Chipotle is investing in menu enhancements, the in-store dining experience, digital reach, and marketing efforts to drive foot traffic. Capital expenditures were $397.6 billion through the first six months of 2026, up 30% year over year. This hits free cash flow directly.
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill$30.58+$0.06 (+0.20%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
The stock might be cheap for a reason It can be hard for Chipotle to attract investor interest at a time when it seems everyone is enamored by artificial intelligence stocks. These enterprises can promise faster growth and bigger gains. The Tex-Mex chain has to compete with that.
For what it's worth, Chipotle's valuation has become more attractive. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 28.2, which is near a 10-year low. Expectations have fallen due to the company's softer financial results.
This is a high-quality business, though. Its brand is arguably the strongest in the fast-casual space. Its 4,186 company-owned stores give it tremendous scale. It keeps growing, with 350 to 370 net new openings scheduled for this year. Profits are consistent; the average quarterly operating margin in the past five years was 15.8%.
That combination should keep Chipotle on your radar. However, the future might not be as robust as the past was. Consensus analyst forecasts call for earnings per share to grow at just 8.6% per year from 2025 to 2028. This is significantly below the 21.2% annualized pace of the previous three years. Investors need to temper their expectations.
UBS očekává, že srovnatelné tržby společnosti Chipotle ve třetím čtvrtletí vzrostou o 1,5 %, avšak slabší začátek čtvrtého čtvrtletí by mohl zhoršit krátkodobý výhled.
UBS expects Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG), the US restaurant chain, to report broadly in-line third-quarter sales on October 28, with sales growth and restaurant margins facing continued pressure before a potential recovery in 2027.
The bank forecasts same-store sales growth of 1.5% for the quarter, slightly above the 1.3% consensus estimate, but expects weaker trends at the start of the fourth quarter to challenge near-term performance.
UBS sees scope for improvement in 2027 as Chipotle expands menu innovation, marketing, catering and operational initiatives, with the bank arguing that these measures could support stronger customer transactions despite persistent economic pressures.
The broker expects third-quarter same-store sales growth to comprise a 2.5% contribution from pricing, offset by a 0.6% decline in transactions and a 0.4% negative impact from sales mix.
Chipotle's performance is expected to reflect broader economic pressures and food safety headlines, partly offset by new menu items such as Pollo Asado and Chili Lime Chips, promotional campaigns and operational improvements.
UBS also highlighted marketing initiatives, including a Cardi B-branded Bardi Bowl, partnerships linked to the PGA Tour and children's meals, and promotional offers designed to attract customers.
However, alternative sales data from Second Measure suggest trading trends weakened at the start of the fourth quarter, raising the possibility that sales growth could fall short of market expectations.
The bank forecasts same-store sales growth of 1.4% for the 2026 financial year, below the consensus estimate of 1.8%, before accelerating to 2.6% in 2027.
Chipotle's restaurant-level margins are also expected to remain under pressure, with UBS forecasting a 23.6% margin for the third quarter, below the 23.8% consensus estimate and down 90 basis points year on year.
For the fourth quarter, UBS forecasts restaurant-level margins of 22.8%, compared with the consensus estimate of 23.4%, reflecting expectations for continued sales weakness and investment in store operations.
The bank expects some margin recovery in 2027, forecasting 24.0% for the year, although this remains below the 24.4% consensus estimate as cost inflation and weaker sales remain risks.
Chipotle's longer-term growth prospects are supported by new restaurant openings, with UBS forecasting store growth of 8.7% in 2026 and 8.0% in 2027.
New restaurants are generating productivity equivalent to about 80% of established locations, while second-year cash-on-cash returns are approximately 60%, with cannibalisation of existing stores remaining around 1%.
UBS expects further sales support from an expanded High-Efficiency Equipment Package rollout, which is targeting 2,000 stores by the end of 2026, alongside a national catering launch planned for 2027 and tests of a restaurant remodelling programme.
The broker sees potential upside if sales trends improve through the remainder of the fourth quarter and into 2027, supported by Chipotle's planned initiatives, continued restaurant expansion and strong balance sheet.
Chipotle ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 zvýšilo srovnatelné tržby na všech evropských trzích o vyšší jednociferné procento a plánuje další expanzi v západní Evropě.
Key Takeaways Chipotle's European markets delivered high-single-digit comparable-sales growth in the second quarter of 2026.Aligning European operations with North American standards has improved Chipotle's restaurant economics.CMG plans to keep owning and operating Western European restaurants as it builds its development pipeline.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is positioning Europe as an important avenue for international growth, supported by improving restaurant economics and stronger comparable sales. During the second quarter of 2026, each of the company's European markets delivered high-single-digit comparable-sales growth, reflecting the benefits of aligning regional operations with its established North American model.
The improvement follows a multiyear effort to align European restaurants with North American culinary operations and employee training standards. These initiatives have contributed to stronger restaurant performance, lifting unit economics to levels that management believes warrant additional investment. This operational progress provides a more favorable foundation for scaling the business across the region.
Chipotle is building its European development pipeline to support meaningful growth in the coming years. The company intends to continue owning and operating restaurants across Western Europe, retaining direct exposure to restaurant sales and operating performance as its footprint expands. This approach contrasts with its partner-operated strategy in markets such as Mexico, South Korea and the Middle East, where local partnerships facilitate development and market entry.
Chipotle's European strategy could support sustained revenue growth as stronger restaurant economics create opportunities for faster expansion in 2027 and beyond. Although maintaining restaurant productivity and operational consistency remains important, continued comparable-sales momentum and disciplined development could help translate additional restaurant openings into stronger revenue contributions over time.
CMG’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Chipotle have declined 25.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 11.7%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) and McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) have lost 28.7% and 21.5%, respectively.
CMG One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Chipotle trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.73, below the industry’s average of 2.87. Conversely, industry players, such as Dutch Bros and McDonald's, have P/S multiples of 2.56 and 5.79, respectively.
CMG’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2027 earnings per share has remained unchanged in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CMG Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s earnings in 2027 are likely to increase 19.2% on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, industry players such as McDonald’s and Dutch Bros are likely to witness an increase of 6.6% and 30%, respectively, year over year in 2027 earnings.
CMG’s Zacks RankChipotle stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Starbucks v posledních měsících podle deníku Financial Times se svými poradci zvažuje převzetí společnosti Chipotle Mexican Grill; akcie Chipotle ve čtvrtek dopoledne vzrostly téměř o 7 %.
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -4.07%) soared this past Thursday on news that Starbucks (SBUX +1.26%) has been considering an acquisition of the fast-casual burrito chain.
On Thursday, The Financial Times reported that Starbucks has been working with advisors in recent months on a takeover proposal for Chipotle. Chipotle shares were up almost 7% in late morning trading on Thursday, while Starbucks' share price dropped more than 3%.
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It's far from certain that Starbucks will actually attempt the takeover. It would be a massive deal, as Chipotle's market capitalization is north of $41 billion. And the acquisition could also face antitrust obstacles, though the Trump administration has so far not applied those laws strictly.
FT reports that an acquisition of Chipotle would be the biggest-ever merger in the restaurant sector, dwarfing Burger King's 2014 acquisition of Canadian coffee chain Tim Hortons, at around $11.4 billion.
Starbucks' CEO has engineered corporate turnarounds before
Interestingly, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is a former Chipotle CEO. He led the restaurant for six years. Since he left, the company's share price has fallen by nearly half. Niccol also worked for Yum! Brands, which owns KFC and Taco Bell.
Niccol engineered a well-respected turnaround at Chipotle after becoming CEO in 2018. While he was there, sales soared, and the share price climbed more than eightfold, moving from around $6 to $56. He has been attempting the same kind of transformation at Starbucks, which recorded six consecutive quarters of falling sales from early 2024 to late 2025.
Customers had complained about their experience at the coffee shops, including long lines, too few employees, and inconsistent product offerings. Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround plan has attempted to make service more consistent and faster, and make the coffeehouses' environments warmer.
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Since Niccol left Chipotle in late August 2024 to take the helm at Starbucks, Chipotle's share price has fallen by about 40%. Starbucks shares are down about 5% since that date.
The latest news that Niccol is looking at combining the two chains suggests he sees more value in Chipotle than investors do; that, with the share price significantly below where it was when he left, he believes the price of an acquisition is favorable right now; and that he thinks he can lead the combined company's stock price higher, possibly benefiting from synergies that come from mergers.
With Chipotle shares up sharply on the news, it seems investors believe Niccol could improve that business once again, though the undertaking might divert his attention from Starbucks' operations.
Matthew Benjamin has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends Yum! Brands and recommends the following options: short December 2026 $38 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Starbucks just killed the deal that had been carrying Chipotle shares higher, and now the burrito chain has to stand on its own traffic numbers with a buyer no longer waiting in the wings.
Takeover hopes that had been lifting Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) shares are fading after the most logical buyer stepped aside. Chipotle stock is at $30.55, down 3% in morning trading, as Chipotle shares give back the deal premium that takeover chatter had built in. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is the company that ended the speculation, stating that it isn’t pursuing an acquisition of the burrito chain.
Notably, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is at $778.69, essentially flat, so the broader market offers no explanation for the drop. Thus, the selling is concentrated in Chipotle stock.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) stock trades at $233.32, down 0.8%, representing a much smaller move than the one in Chipotle stock. At the same time, Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) stock is at $145.03, up 0.2%, holding its ground as McDonald’s stock edges lower. As for Starbucks stock, it’s up 1% to $92.04.
Starbucks Denial Strips Out the Deal Premium A Starbucks representative said on October 12 that the coffee chain isn’t buying Chipotle, ending several days of takeover speculation. Last Thursday, a published report said Starbucks had spent recent months working with advisors on a proposal to acquire the burrito chain, and that account carried Chipotle shares higher. Such a combination would have been the largest restaurant takeover on record, and that is why the denial is landing so hard on Chipotle stock.
Brian Niccol’s history made the deal plausible enough for the market to price. Niccol led Chipotle before becoming chief executive of Starbucks, where he is executing the “Back to Starbucks” turnaround plan. Earlier this month, Chipotle hired advisors to defend against activist investors or an unwanted takeover approach, a protective posture the denial now leaves the company holding alone.
Owned Stores Leave Chipotle More Exposed Than Franchised Rivals Chipotle owns and operates its restaurants, so its earnings move in step with transaction counts and traffic at the stores it runs. McDonald’s and Yum! Brands are mostly franchised and collect royalties from operators. That structure means a traffic problem at a single brand reaches their earnings far less directly than it hits Chipotle’s.
Rebuilding traffic is Chipotle’s central task, since the company is working to recover from a stretch in which visits to its restaurants fell. Takeover chatter had been papering over that weakness. A split this sharp, with Chipotle shares falling while McDonald’s stock barely moves and Yum! Brands stock holds steady, marks the session as a Chipotle-specific unwind of deal premium.
Measured by market value, Chipotle stock is now worth $38.14 billion, less than Yum! Brands stock at $39.6 billion and far below McDonald’s stock at $165.24 billion. Starbucks shares carry a market value of $104.44 billion, giving the coffee chain the heft to make a combination credible.
The bull case holds that a buyer of Starbucks’ scale examined Chipotle at all, suggesting the brand and its owned store base carry value the depressed share price doesn’t reflect. On the bear side, the takeover premium has now been stripped back out, leaving Chipotle stock standing on a traffic recovery that hasn’t arrived yet. With a 52-week low of $28.04 and a high of $42.82, Chipotle shares sit far closer the bottom of their range.
What to Watch Next Chipotle’s Q3 2026 results, currently expected on October 28 after the market closes, are the next hard checkpoint. That report’s traffic trend matters most, since it’s the number the takeover story had been covering up. Investors will want to see if visits to Chipotle restaurants begin to recover.
Without a buyer, Chipotle shares now trade on fundamentals rather than deal hopes. Investors holding Chipotle shares may want to size their positions around that traffic risk instead of counting on a renewed bid.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Starbucks podle deníku Financial Times zkoumá akvizici společnosti Chipotle Mexican Grill, která by byla největší transakcí v historii restauračního odvětví.
The Ratings Game‘We think investors will view this as competing for management’s time and attention where there’s still wood to chop on turning the Starbucks brand around,’ analyst says
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A hot cup of coffee might be among the last things you think of when you order a burrito. But as Starbucks reportedly weighs a takeover of Chipotle Mexican Grill, you could end up getting both from one massive, taco-pumpkin-spice-latte conglomerate.
The Financial Times on Thursday reported that the coffee chain has explored acquiring Chipotle in some form, in what would be the biggest such deal in the restaurant industry’s history. If that doesn’t immediately make sense to you, Wall Street appears to agree.
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About the Author
Bill Peters is a Los Angeles–based MarketWatch reporter.
Key Takeaways CMG's catering and Build-Your-Own Chipotle offerings currently account for 2%-3% of sales.Chipotle's Chicago, Boston and Phoenix pilots are shaping technology and operations for a 2027 rollout.CMG is seeing higher Build-Your-Own orders after repositioning the offering around convenience and value. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is preparing for a national catering launch in 2027 as it expands its presence in group dining occasions. Catering and Build-Your-Own Chipotle together account for 2%-3% of sales. The company views these offerings as highly incremental and operationally efficient, supporting its efforts to develop additional transaction growth drivers under its Recipe for Growth strategy.
Early results from catering pilots in Chicago, Boston and Phoenix have been encouraging. These tests have helped Chipotle assess the operational and technology requirements for expansion across its own ordering channels and third-party marketplaces. The company is incorporating the remaining pilot learnings as it prepares for broader deployment in 2027.
Alongside catering, Chipotle is positioning Build-Your-Own Chipotle more clearly as a family meal solution. The revised messaging highlights convenience and value, helping customers better understand the offering. Orders have increased notably following the change, supporting the company’s push to capture more group dining occasions.
Chipotle’s planned catering launch offers a potential source of incremental sales growth in 2027. Encouraging pilot results and increased family meal orders support the opportunity to increase these offerings’ contribution to total sales.
Peers Tap Catering and New Meal OccasionsCAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is advancing its catering initiatives as it evaluates opportunities for broader expansion. CAVA plans to add a second market test in fall 2026, building on its existing Houston pilot. The company is working to balance order volumes and align production capacity with catering demand, with the aim of enabling restaurant teams to reliably fulfill customer commitments. These operational preparations support CAVA’s efforts to establish the capacity needed for an eventual rollout across its restaurant system.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) reported continued strength in catering, which partially offset product-mix pressures in the second quarter of 2026. SG is also broadening meal occasions through menu innovation. Its nationally launched wraps maintained approximately 20% incidence, with more than half of customers who ordered a wrap returning within 30 days. Sweetgreen also views plates as an opportunity to expand its dinner business, supported by a menu innovation pipeline extending into 2027. These initiatives complement its efforts to increase visit frequency and restore sustainable transaction growth.
CMG’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Chipotle have declined 24.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 11.1%.
CMG One-Year Price Performance
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From a valuation standpoint, Chipotle trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.78, below the industry’s average of 2.87.
CMG’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of 2.6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have declined in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CMG Stock
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CMG’s Zacks RankChipotle stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB ve třetím čtvrtletí zvýšila svůj podíl ve společnosti Chipotle Mexican Grill o 7 051,6 % na 243 726 akcií v hodnotě 7,787 mil. USD.
MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB boosted its stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG – Free Report) by 7,051.6% during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 243,726 shares of the restaurant operator’s stock after purchasing an additional 240,318 shares during the period. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB’s holdings in Chipotle Mexican Grill were worth $7,787,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. MV Capital Management Inc. bought a new stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill during the 4th quarter valued at $26,000. Osbon Capital Management LLC purchased a new stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill during the 4th quarter valued at $28,000. Meeder Asset Management Inc. bought a new stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill in the 2nd quarter worth $27,000. Kelleher Financial Advisors purchased a new position in shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in the second quarter valued at about $28,000. Finally, Merkkuri Wealth Advisors LLC purchased a new position in shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in the first quarter valued at about $28,000. Institutional investors own 91.30% of the company’s stock.
Insider Buying and Selling In other news, insider Matthew R. Bush sold 2,675 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $35.75, for a total value of $95,631.25. Following the transaction, the insider owned 21,415 shares in the company, valued at approximately $765,586.25. This represents a 11.10% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Company insiders own 0.45% of the company’s stock.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of analysts have recently weighed in on the stock. Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $53.00 target price (up from $50.00) on shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in a report on Tuesday, September 1st. Mizuho restated an “outperform” rating and set a $43.00 price target on shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in a report on Tuesday, September 1st. Robert W. Baird reaffirmed a “neutral” rating and set a $40.00 price target (down from $44.00) on shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in a research report on Monday, August 24th. DA Davidson increased their price objective on Chipotle Mexican Grill from $45.00 to $50.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday, July 30th. Finally, Evercore reiterated an “outperform” rating and issued a $47.00 price objective on shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill in a research report on Thursday, July 30th. Twenty-three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and ten have issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $43.91. View Our Latest Stock Analysis on Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle Mexican Grill Price Performance NYSE:CMG opened at $32.44 on Monday. The company’s 50-day simple moving average is $34.79 and its 200 day simple moving average is $33.61. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a one year low of $28.03 and a one year high of $42.81. The firm has a market capitalization of $41.04 billion, a P/E ratio of 29.76, a PEG ratio of 1.98 and a beta of 0.96.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, July 29th. The restaurant operator reported $0.33 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.32 by $0.01. Chipotle Mexican Grill had a return on equity of 54.65% and a net margin of 11.43%.The company had revenue of $3.35 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $3.33 billion. During the same quarter last year, the company earned $0.33 EPS. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 9.3% on a year-over-year basis. On average, equities research analysts expect that Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. will post 1.14 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
(Free Report)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc is a fast-casual restaurant company that specializes in Mexican-inspired food made with a limited number of core ingredients. Its menu includes burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, salads and sides, with options such as chicken, steak, barbacoa, carnitas, sofritas and vegetables. The company also offers beverages, including soft drinks and other drinks, and allows customers to customize meals.
Founded by Steve Ells in 1993, Chipotle operates company-owned restaurants under the Chipotle Mexican Grill brand.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Chipotle Mexican Grill Could Nike’s Brutal Sell-Off Finally Be Running Out of Steam? The AI Buildout Needs Power It Cannot Get: 4 Energy Stocks Already Have It McDonald’s Is Undergoing a Massive New Growth Strategy. Can It Win Back Consumers? MGM Resorts Stock Sinks After Diller Deal Collapse: Overreaction or Warning? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding CMG? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG – Free Report).
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Chipotle stock is falling several times harder than McDonald's and Starbucks combined, and the options market is flashing a defensive signal that suggests traders see more pain ahead.
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Selling in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) stock is running far ahead of the rest of the restaurant group, and the gap between CMG stock and shares of its larger rivals is the clearest signal in the sector. Chipotle stock has fallen 4%, recently trading at $31.10, extending a slide that was already well under way.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.4%, so equities overall are moving in the opposite direction from Chipotle. Food and beverage stocks are steady as well, with the Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (NYSEARCA:PBJ) down 0.1%.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) shares are down 0.7%, a far softer decline than Chipotle stock is posting. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) stock is slipping 0.5%, leaving it in step with McDonald’s shares. The selling is clearly aimed at Chipotle stock, which is falling several times harder than either larger rival.
Chipotle Extends a Month-Long Slide The past month has been punishing for Chipotle stock, which is down 19% over that stretch. Chipotle shares now trade closer to their 52-week low of $28.04 than to their 52-week high of $42.82, so the latest drop deepens an established downtrend.
Options activity around Chipotle stock leans defensive, with a full-chain put/call ratio of 3.46. That reading above 1 means put contracts on Chipotle stock (which gain value when shares fall) outnumber calls, signaling demand for downside protection.
Late-September takeover speculation briefly lifted Chipotle shares, though no offer or discussions were ever confirmed and the talk remains unsubstantiated. That lift has since vanished.
Starbucks carried a 5.2% weight in the Invesco Food & Beverage ETF as of July 31, while Chipotle and McDonald’s didn’t appear among the fund’s holdings. Read together, the flat fund and the gain in SPY leave Chipotle stock isolated on the downside.
Margin Pressure Frames the Debate Results for Q2 2026 showed Chipotle rebuilding traffic while costs squeezed its profitability. Chipotle’s revenue rose 9.3% year over year, with its comparable sales up 2.2%. However, the company’s restaurant-level operating margin contracted to 25.2% from 27.4% on beef and freight inflation.
Cost pressure at Chipotle has remained for several quarters, as the company’s operating margin fell to 12.9% from 16.7% in Q1 2026. From Q4 2026 forward, management at Chipotle expects its pricing to match cost inflation, a shift that could ease the margin squeeze.
On Chipotle’s second-quarter call, the company’s finance chief stated that “trends have been softer in recent weeks amid heightened consumer caution around the broader restaurant industry.” Buybacks continued, with Chipotle buying back $630.7 million in shares during Q2 at an average of $32.55 each, above the $31.10 share price. The company had $1.7 billion left under its repurchase authorizations at quarter-end.
What to Watch Next Management at Chipotle expected Q3 2026 comparable sales of “somewhere around a plus 1% in Q3,” calling that quarter “the toughest lap that we have this year.” Chipotle’s next quarterly report may show whether the consumer caution flagged on the summer call has eased.
The bull case rests on Chipotle’s improving transactions and its “Recipe for Growth” strategy. Wall Street’s average price target on Chipotle stock is $43.76, well above the $31.10 share price. On the bear side, Chipotle’s margins remain contracted, and Chipotle stock keeps sliding while McDonald’s and Starbucks shares hold steady.
Traders could look for signs that selling eases as Chipotle stock approaches its 52-week low. Given the 19% one-month decline in Chipotle stock and its isolation from the restaurant group, investors weighing their exposure should adjust their holdings carefully.
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Chipotle zrychlila tempo inovací menu zhruba 4× a Honey Chicken překonal předchozí uvedení s kumulativní mírou připojení nad 25 %. Ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 vzrostly srovnatelné tržby v restauracích o 2,2 %.
Key Takeaways Chipotle's menu innovation cadence has risen about 4X, blending returning favorites with new offerings.Chipotle Honey Chicken topped its prior launch, with cumulative attachment rates above 25%.LTOs have driven hundreds of basis points of transaction lift and higher lifetime value among customers. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is leaning more heavily on menu innovation as a key traffic driver under its Recipe for Growth strategy. Management said the company has ramped up its menu innovation cadence to roughly four times the level seen just a couple of years ago, combining the return of proven favorites with a broader pipeline of new offerings.
Early results suggest the strategy is resonating. The return of Chipotle Honey Chicken outperformed its prior launch and generated a cumulative attachment rate above 25%. Cilantro Lime Sauce has also maintained stronger attachment rates than earlier sauce launches, reinforcing demand for flavor-focused innovation. These initiatives contributed to positive transaction growth in the second quarter of 2026, when comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2%, including a 1% rise in transactions.
Importantly, Chipotle is expanding beyond simply recycling successful limited-time offerings. The company has strengthened its culinary team and is developing new center-of-the-plate items while exploring opportunities across beverages, sides and desserts. Two additional limited-time protein offerings were planned for the second half of 2026, with other concepts potentially entering the calendar later in 2026 and into 2027.
The long-term traffic opportunity rests on whether these launches can create repeat visits rather than short-term spikes. Management said LTOs have typically generated hundreds of basis points of transaction lift while also attracting new customers and increasing frequency among existing guests. Customers trying LTOs have also shown higher lifetime value, supporting the view that menu innovation could become a multiyear AUV growth lever.
Still, softer recent traffic trends and tougher comparisons mean sustained growth will depend on the pipeline continuing to deliver meaningful incremental demand.
CAVA and Yum! Brands Step Up Menu InnovationCAVA Group (CAVA - Free Report) is also using culinary innovation to drive traffic and broaden its appeal. Its first nationwide seafood launch, Pomegranate Glazed Salmon, performed in line with expectations and helped attract new customers while increasing visit frequency among loyalty members who purchased it. CAVA is also testing roasted garlic shrimp and introducing smaller seasonal items, including new dressings and pita chip flavors, to give guests more reasons to return.
Yum! Brands (YUM - Free Report) , particularly through Taco Bell and KFC, is similarly leaning on menu innovation to strengthen consumer engagement. Taco Bell continues to pair new products with value- and loyalty-driven promotions, while KFC is expanding innovation around tenders, sauces and beverages as part of a broader brand modernization effort. Yum! Brands is also using AI-supported consumer insights to identify emerging food and beverage concepts and accelerate innovation across its brands.
For Chipotle, these competitive moves reinforce the importance of maintaining a steady pipeline of differentiated offerings that can generate trial, repeat visits and sustained traffic growth.
Chipotle ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 zvýšila tržby o 9,3 % na 3,3 miliardy USD, ale marže klesla na 25,2 % a firma čeká slabší srovnání ve 3. čtvrtletí. Akcie CMG za rok oslabily o 14,7 %.
Key Takeaways Chipotle faces softer traffic, margin pressure and cautious consumer spending despite solid Q2 results.Menu innovation, digital engagement and catering expansion could drive growth for Chipotle.Chipotle targets 350 new restaurants in 2026, while HEEP upgrades aim to boost efficiency and throughput. Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) have fallen 14.7% over the past year, compared with a 10.2% decline in the restaurant industry. Over the past month, CMG stock has fallen 3.2%, while the industry has declined 7.8%.
The recent weakness reflects concerns about cautious consumer spending, softer restaurant traffic, margin pressure and challenging promotional comparisons. Although Chipotle delivered solid second-quarter results, investors remain focused on whether it can sustain sales momentum amid a difficult operating environment.
In the past year, shares of other industry players like CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) have declined 19.4%, whereas Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) has gained 14.9%.
Price Performance
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Consumer Caution and Margin Pressure Weigh on SentimentChipotle’s second-quarter 2026 revenues increased 9.3% to $3.3 billion, while comparable restaurant sales rose 2.2%, including a 1% increase in transactions. However, management noted that trends softened during the second half of July, partly due to heightened consumer caution and an estimated 200-basis-point traffic impact associated with the Cyclospora-related industry issue. The company also expects difficult comparisons in the third quarter because of stronger promotional activity during the prior year. Consequently, Chipotle projects full-year comparable sales growth in the low-single-digit range.
Profitability remains another concern. Restaurant-level margin declined 220 basis points year over year to 25.2%. Cost of sales increased 80 basis points to 29.7%, pressured by inflation in beef and freight, while labor costs rose 30 basis points to 25%. Higher operating expenses and wage inflation could limit earnings growth if traffic remains subdued.
Menu Innovation Could Support Traffic RecoveryDespite near-term challenges, Chipotle continues to invest in menu innovation. The return of Chipotle Honey Chicken generated a cumulative attachment rate above 25%, while Cilantro Lime Sauce continued to outperform earlier sauce offerings. Management also plans to introduce two additional limited-time protein options during the second half of the year.
The company is expanding catering and Build-Your-Own Chipotle, which currently account for 2-3% of sales. These offerings are considered incremental and operationally efficient, with a potential national launch planned for 2027.
Digital Initiatives and Restaurant EfficiencyDigital sales represented 38.3% of total revenues in the second quarter, compared with 35.5% a year earlier. Chipotle’s revamped Rewards program is designed to improve personalization, increase engagement and encourage repeat visits. The company has also introduced in-store enrollment tools, which helped lift daily enrollments by nearly 20%.
Operational improvements could further support the recovery. Chipotle’s high-efficiency equipment package, or HEEP, has been installed in more than 1,000 restaurants, with management targeting approximately 2,000 locations by year-end. Restaurants using HEEP are generating two to three additional entrees during peak 15-minute periods, supporting throughput and guest satisfaction.
Expansion Provides a Long-Term Growth OpportunityChipotle expects to open approximately 350 restaurants in 2026, with around 80% featuring a Chipotlane. New restaurant productivity remains near 80%, while second-year cash-on-cash returns are approximately 60%. Management believes the company could eventually operate at least 7,000 restaurants across North America.
International expansion also offers additional growth potential. Chipotle reported high-single-digit comparable sales growth across Europe and plans to expand in Mexico, South Korea, Singapore and the Middle East. However, international execution and geopolitical conditions remain important factors to monitor.
Chipotle's Estimate RevisionsAnalysts have raised their 2026 earnings estimate for Chipotle Mexican from $1.13 to $1.15 over the past 60 days. Despite this upward revision, the company’s earnings are projected to decline 1.7% year over year in 2026. In comparison, Restaurant Brands and CAVA are expected to report earnings growth of 9.5% and 1.8%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG’s ValuationFrom a valuation point of view, the stock is still trading at a premium despite the recent decline. Chipotle’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 25.78, higher than the industry’s 20.74.
P/E (F12M)
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Can CMG Stock Rebound?Chipotle’s near-term performance will likely depend on restaurant traffic, consumer spending trends and its ability to manage food and labor inflation. Menu innovation, digital engagement, operational improvements and new restaurant openings provide potential growth catalysts. However, sustained margin pressure and softer consumer demand could limit the pace of recovery. Investors should closely monitor comparable sales, transaction growth and profitability in upcoming quarters.
CMG currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Chipotle Mexican Grill v posledním uzavřeném obchodním dni klesl o 3,3 % na 33,68 USD, tedy více než širší trh. Investoři teď sledují výsledky, které firma oznámí 28. října 2026.
In the latest close session, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) was down 3.3% at $33.68. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.45%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 1.21%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.01%.
Shares of the Mexican food chain witnessed a gain of 4.41% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Retail-Wholesale sector with its loss of 7.24%, and the S&P 500's loss of 2.43%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its upcoming release. The company is slated to reveal its earnings on October 28, 2026. In that report, analysts expect Chipotle Mexican Grill to post earnings of $0.29 per share. This would mark no growth from the year-ago period. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $3.28 billion, indicating a 9.35% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $1.15 per share and revenue of $13 billion, which would represent changes of -1.71% and +8.97%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.06% higher. Right now, Chipotle Mexican Grill possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 30.4. This represents a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 20.32.
It's also important to note that CMG currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.13. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Retail - Restaurants industry stood at 1.69 at the close of the market yesterday.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 153, this industry ranks in the bottom 38% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
Chipotle klesá po slabší srpnové návštěvnosti restaurací v USA, která meziročně spadla o 2,4 %. Seaport navíc zahájil pokrytí se stupněm Neutral kvůli nejistému oživení návštěvnosti.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) stock extended its decline Wednesday after falling more than 5% in the previous session. Tuesday’s decline followed a Placer report showing weaker U.S. dining traffic in August.
U.S. Dining Traffic WeakensDining-chain visits fell 2.4% year over year. By comparison, retail visits rose 0.3%, although growth slowed from 1.7% in July.
Calendar timing contributed to the weakness. Labor Day fell on Sept. 7 this year versus Sept. 1 in 2025. That shifted the holiday weekend out of August and likely weighed more heavily on restaurant traffic.
Consumers also faced higher costs. Food-away-from-home prices rose 3.4% year over year, compared with a 2.2% increase for groceries. Consumer sentiment also declined from July.
Those trends could pressure restaurant sales and margins as operators continue to face elevated labor and operating costs.
Seaport Flags Traffic Recovery ChallengesSeparately, Seaport Global took a cautious view on Chipotle, initiating coverage with a Neutral rating as the fast-casual leader works to revive traffic and navigate recent food-safety disruptions.
Senior analyst Eric Gonzalez called Chipotle the “undisputed leader” in fast casual. He expects systemwide sales to top $13 billion this year. Average unit volumes exceed $3 million, while restaurant-level margins have remained in the mid-20% range. New-unit returns above 60% also rank among the industry’s highest.
Second-quarter same-store sales rose 2.2%, beating expectations as trends improved through the quarter. Seaport credited menu innovation, a revamped rewards program, and marketing efforts.
However, an industrywide Cyclospora outbreak disrupted momentum and created an estimated 200-basis-point run-rate headwind. A separate Salmonella outbreak tied to jalapeños added volatility. Seaport believes those effects are contained and expects improvement in the fourth quarter and into 2027.
Chipotle guided to about 1% same-store sales growth for the third quarter. It also raised its full-year outlook to low-single-digit growth from its prior flat forecast. Seaport said underlying trends near 3% offer some encouragement.
Menu, Rewards And Throughput Could HelpChipotle has doubled its pace of protein innovation to four launches a year. Seaport also pointed to Pollo Asado, Cilantro Lime Chips, and potential menu additions such as Smoked Brisket. Pricing is expected to rise to about 2.5% in the second half from roughly 1% in the first half.
Meanwhile, Chipotle’s high-efficiency equipment package is expected to reach about 2,000 restaurants by year-end. Seaport said the equipment is already driving throughput gains of two to three entrées per 15 minutes during peak periods.
Why Seaport Stays NeutralDespite those catalysts, Gonzalez said the underlying growth debate remains unresolved. Chipotle may need continued investment in portions, labor, food quality, rewards, and discounts to restore stronger traffic. Those investments could limit margin recovery.
Seaport also sees Chipotle entering a more mature growth phase. The firm expects mid-to-high-teens EPS growth but said the stock’s roughly 28-times forward earnings multiple is close to fair value, supporting its Neutral rating.
CMG Price Action: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares were down 1.78% at $34.21 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Chipotle chce do konce roku 2027 umístit Apprentice do každé restaurace, aby posílil interní rozvoj manažerů. Program dnes podporuje zhruba tři čtvrtiny restaurací.
Enhanced Apprentice program supports Chipotle's long-term goal of developing restaurant leaders from within The company's decade-long partnership with Guild has helped nearly 25,000 employees pursue debt-free education, supporting career advancement and Chipotle's long-term growth , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced enhancements to its Apprentice program that place greater emphasis on developing talent, strengthening restaurant operations and preparing leaders to support the company's continued growth.
Chipotle is expanding its restaurant leadership pipeline with a goal of placing an Apprentice in every restaurant by the end of 2027. Today, Apprentices currently support approximately three-quarters of Chipotle restaurants, helping develop future leaders from within while strengthening restaurant operations. As the company works toward its long-term goal of operating 7,000 restaurants across the U.S. and Canada, it expects to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026. To enable its expansion, the company aims to place an Apprentice in each of its more than 4,200 company-owned restaurants by the end of 2027, strengthening the management infrastructure needed to support its growing footprint.
Today, Apprentices support approximately three-quarters of Chipotle's restaurants. Extending the model across its entire restaurant portfolio will create additional opportunities for Crew Members to advance while building deeper management benches across the organization.
More than 85% of Chipotle's restaurant managers began their careers as Crew Members, underscoring the company's commitment to promoting from within. The Apprentice role serves as a critical bridge to becoming a General Manager, preparing high-performing employees to oversee restaurant operations, develop teams and uphold Chipotle's operational standards. Chipotle's career pathway provides employees with a clear roadmap to advance from Crew Member to General Manager—and ultimately into field and regional roles.
"Every Crew Member we hire has the potential to become a future restaurant leader," said Ilene Eskenazi, Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer. "Developing leaders from within allows us to create meaningful careers for our people while ensuring every restaurant is led by someone who understands our culture and our commitment to exceptional guest experiences."
In addition to building Chipotle's pipeline of future General Managers, Apprentices provide additional leadership and staffing coverage during peak periods and weekends, helping teams focus on operational execution. The role also helps build a stronger team culture while delivering more consistent guest experiences across in-restaurant and digital occasions. By taking ownership of key areas, including training and the digital makeline, Apprentices allow General Managers to distribute responsibilities more effectively, improve digital execution and consistently deliver Chipotle's standards for hospitality. Restaurants with Apprentices also generally achieve better operational scores, which can contribute to improved restaurant economics over the long term.
Building Leaders Through Education
This year marks the 10th anniversary of Cultivate Education, powered by Guild, a leading education and upskilling company. Over the past decade, the program has become a cornerstone of Chipotle's leadership strategy, helping employees gain the education, skills and confidence to advance their careers.
Key Cultivate Education milestones over the past decade include:
Nearly 25,000 Chipotle employees have enrolled in an education program More than 14,000 employees have completed an education program 57% of graduates earned a college degree, while 43% earned a certificate Eligible Chipotle employees can pursue fully online bachelor's and associate degrees, certificates, boot camps, language learning, high school completion and college preparation programs. Chipotle pays 100% of tuition for select college degree programs and provides up to $5,250 annually toward additional educational opportunities or tuition reimbursement. Employees also receive one-on-one coaching throughout their educational journey and can earn college credit for eligible on-the-job training through Guild.
The investment has also strengthened Chipotle's workforce. Employees enrolled in Cultivate Education experience a 66% lower average annual turnover rate than non-participating peers and are promoted approximately 1.4 times as often, demonstrating the impact of education on retention and career advancement.
"Ten years ago, Chipotle made an early bet on the potential of its people. Today, employees participating in Cultivate Education are moving into business-critical roles and staying longer. These outcomes are strengthening the company as it expands and supporting the customer experience. Guild is proud to partner with Chipotle as it continues to pioneer employee investments that transform careers and build the leaders its business needs," said Bijal Shah, CEO of Guild.
As Chipotle continues expanding in the U.S. and Canada, its greatest competitive advantage remains the people who grow with it. By investing in leadership development, education and clear career pathways, Chipotle is building the leaders who will power its next chapter.
To learn more about careers at Chipotle, visit careers.chipotle.com. Eligible employees can explore Cultivate Education benefits at chipotle.guildeducation.com.
A Workplace Built for Growth and Innovation
Chipotle's commitment to investing in its people and fostering a culture of growth and innovation continues to earn external recognition. The company was recently ranked No. 2 on Fast Company's 2026 Best Workplaces for Innovators list, which recognizes organizations that demonstrate a strong commitment to encouraging and developing innovation at all levels. Chipotle was also named to TIME's World's Best Companies 2026 list, which recognizes top-performing companies around the globe based on employee satisfaction, revenue growth and sustainability transparency.
About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,200 restaurants as of June 30, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in the United States, Canada and Europe. With nearly 140,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit www.chipotle.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about Chipotle's Apprentice Program and goal for 2027, the number of new restaurants we expect to open in 2026, Chipotle's goal to open 7,000 restaurants and the anticipated benefits of these investments to our talent, operations and business growth. We use words such as "aim," "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "have the potential," "seek" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the competitive labor market, which impacts our ability to attract and retain qualified employees, the impact of government laws and regulations relating to our employees, employment practices, restaurant design and construction, and the sale of food or alcoholic beverages, and the other risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.
Chipotle tržby vzrostly o 9,3 % na 3,3 miliardy USD, ale restaurační marže klesla o 220 bazických bodů na 25,2 %. Náklady na hovězí, dopravu, práci i provoz převážily přínos cen v menu.
Key Takeaways Chipotle posted 9.3% revenue growth, but restaurant-level margin fell 220 basis points to 25.2%.Higher beef, freight, labor and operating costs outweighed menu pricing benefits in the quarter.CMG expects pricing to reach the mid-2% range in Q3, while HEEP gains could support productivity. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) delivered solid second-quarter 2026 growth, but profitability remained under pressure as inflation and higher operating expenses outpaced pricing benefits.
Revenues increased 9.3% year over year to $3.3 billion, while comparable sales rose 2.2%, including 1% transaction growth. However, restaurant-level margin declined 220 basis points to 25.2%.
Cost pressures were broad-based. Cost of sales rose 80 basis points to 29.7%, with higher beef and freight expenses, along with increased usage of chicken, steak and produce, more than offsetting benefits from menu pricing and lower avocado and dairy costs. Labor costs also climbed 30 basis points to 25%, reflecting wage inflation, bonuses and investments in restaurant execution. Other operating costs increased 90 basis points, pressured by insurance, maintenance, utilities and higher marketing spending.
Pricing should provide greater support ahead. CMG expects pricing to rise from a 1.6% contribution in the second quarter to the mid-2% range in the third quarter, while inflation is expected near 3%. Management expects the pricing-inflation gap to disappear from fourth-quarter 2026 onward.
Operational improvements could provide another cushion. HEEP-equipped restaurants are processing 2-3 more entrees during peak periods, with the rollout expected to reach 2,000 restaurants by year-end.
Pricing is moving in the right direction, but CMG may need easing inflation and continued productivity gains for margins to meaningfully recover.
CAVA Group and Yum! Brand: Competing Strategies Amid Cost InflationCAVA Group (CAVA - Free Report) is a close fast-casual peer of Chipotle, competing for consumers seeking fresh, customizable meals. Like CMG, CAVA must balance food and labor inflation with pricing while protecting customer traffic. Continued restaurant expansion and a focus on operational efficiency could improve leverage as the business scales.
Yum! Brands (YUM - Free Report) , through its Taco Bell business, takes a more value-focused approach. Affordable menu options and promotions can help attract budget-conscious consumers when restaurant prices rise. However, a heavier reliance on value can make it harder to offset Yum! Brands’ higher operating costs through price increases alone.
For Chipotle, these contrasting strategies highlight the need to balance pricing, customer value and productivity. Continued menu innovation and operational improvements could help the company protect margins without putting excessive pressure on traffic.
CMG’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Chipotle have gained 6.4% in the past six months against the industry’s decline of 11.7%.
CMG One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Chipotle trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.27, above the industry’s average of 3.19.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of 1.7%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CMG Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG’s Zacks RankChipotle stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Chipotle otevřelo první restauraci v Asii, v jihokorejském Soulu v čtvrti Gangnam, a testuje tak expanzi prostřednictvím joint venture se Sangmidang Holdings. Firma chce v regionu vytvořit škálovatelný model růstu.
How long would you wait for a Chipotle bowl? Some South Korean diners stuck it out for three hours.
The U.S. fast-casual chain opened its first Asia-region restaurant in Seoul’s Gangnam neighborhood in early September, which also marked its first-ever expansion through a joint venture.
The lines were so long they became a running joke on Korean social media, with one user suggesting a flight to the U.S. might be the faster way to get Chipotle. Then came the how-to guides, in posts filled with menu combinations and step-by-step explainers on how to navigate Chipotle’s build-your-own ordering system.
The joint venture with South Korean food company Sangmidang Holdings is “an important evolution of our global growth strategy,” Nate Lawton, Chipotle’s chief business development officer, told CNBC. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to entering a new market, he said, but Sangmidang brings local market knowledge, operating infrastructure and experience scaling restaurant brands across Asia.
Sangmidang previously brought Shake Shack to the country.
The joint venture, S&C Restaurants Holdings, is 51% owned by Big Bite Company, an affiliate of Sangmidang, with Chipotle holding the remaining 49%, according to the Korean partner.
Chipotle has an established presence in Canada and Europe and is expanding through partnerships in the Middle East and Mexico as well, said Lawton.
“Korea is important because we’re not simply opening restaurants — we’re building a model for how Chipotle can enter and ultimately scale in a new region while protecting what makes the brand special,” Lawton said. “The real measure of Korea’s success won’t be the performance of a single restaurant,” but “whether we can build a repeatable, scalable model.”
The Asia opportunity South Korean consumer interest in Mexican food is relatively strong, as 42% of consumers had eaten it in the previous three months, according to global market intelligence firm Mintel. Another 37% had not eaten it recently but were interested in doing so.
Heng Hong Tan, associate principal for food and drink at Mintel, said South Korea and Singapore — Chipotle’s next stop in Asia — offer favorable conditions for international fast-casual brands because consumers are “well-travelled, globally connected and receptive to international cuisines.”
Chipotle won’t have the market to itself. South Korea already has Mexican-inspired fast-casual chain Cuchara, while Singapore has established players including Guzman y Gomez and Stuff’d, Tan said.
Expanding in Asia also means building the infrastructure to support the business locally.
In South Korea, Chipotle and its local partner built a supply chain designed to meet the company’s global food quality standards. Big Bite said it tapped suppliers and farms it had already vetted for quality and reliability, along with SPC’s sourcing and processing infrastructure, to build the local supply chain.
Beyond Seoul Chipotle is already preparing for the second leg of its Asia expansion. Its joint venture partner told CNBC it is targeting the first half of 2027 for a Singapore launch, though the exact timing and location have yet to be finalized.
“Singapore is a natural next step for Chipotle in Asia,” Lawton said, describing it as a highly international market where consumers are familiar with global brands.
Still, Singapore’s restaurant market has its own set of challenges. Tan pointed to elevated rental, labor and energy costs as pressures on restaurant profitability.
Chipotle has not announced which Asian markets could follow South Korea and Singapore, saying its priority is executing in the markets it has already committed to.
Consumers across many Asian markets are willing to experiment with new flavors and restaurant concepts, creating opportunities for brands to generate awareness and trial quickly, Tan said. Ultimately, brands that can combine international appeal with local relevance are likely to be best positioned for long-term growth in Asia, he added.
Chipotle otevřela první restauraci v Asii, v Soulu, a Jižní Koreu označila za referenční trh pro další expanzi v regionu. Do konce roku 2026 plánuje ještě dvě další pobočky v Jižní Koreji.
The opening marks a significant milestone in Chipotle's global expansion, establishing South Korea as a reference market for future growth across Asia The joint venture established by Chipotle and Sangmidang Holdings, Chipotle's South Korean operator, will bring the brand's global operating standards to life across sourcing, culinary preparation and restaurant operations Chipotle's menu features real ingredients with no artificial colors, flavors or preservatives, with food prepared fresh throughout the day , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced the opening of its first restaurant in Asia at 423 Gangnam-daero, Seocho-gu, Seoul, South Korea, in partnership with Sangmidang Holdings (formerly SPC Group). South Korea will serve as a reference market for Chipotle's expansion across Asia, establishing a model for how the brand can enter new markets while maintaining its culinary and operational standards. The two companies will run Chipotle's South Korean business through their joint venture, S&C Restaurants Holdings.
Chipotle's first restaurant in Seoul, South Korea will serve as a reference market for Chipotle’s future growth across Asia.
Chipotle plans plans to open two additional restaurants in South Korea by the end of 2026, followed by its first restaurant in Singapore in 2027. See here for photo and video assets: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/i87gmylk26v14mualkxvt/ABbhLe99j4GWjRcElmo_h1M?rlkey=6kmymnmnplrdsqxu77ky93al1&st=s1098u8x&dl=0.
Chipotle selected South Korea for its highly engaged and discerning consumers, sophisticated restaurant culture and strong appreciation for authenticity and ingredient quality. The market provides an important opportunity to demonstrate how Chipotle's Food with Integrity principles and culinary approach can resonate across Asia.
"Asia represents a significant growth opportunity for Chipotle, with strong demand for variety, convenience and real food prepared fresh and served fast," said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer of Chipotle. "South Korea, in particular, is an ideal market to introduce Chipotle to the region, and we see tremendous potential to grow from here. As we scale across Asia, we will remain focused on what has always differentiated Chipotle—a delicious, customizable meal at a value you can't find anywhere else."
Delivering the Chipotle Experience in South Korea
The partnership combines Sangmidang Holdings' extensive restaurant industry, operational and South Korean market knowledge with Chipotle's culinary expertise. Sangmidang Holdings will be responsible for faithfully delivering the Chipotle experience in South Korea—from ingredient sourcing and cooking methods to team training and restaurant operations. The partnership will help ensure the fundamentals that define Chipotle remain consistent as the brand enters a new region.
"We are thrilled to bring Chipotle to South Korean consumers following tremendous anticipation for the brand's arrival," said Hee-soo Hur, President, Chief Vision Officer (CVO) of Sangmidang Holdings. "Chipotle offers a distinctive dining experience centered on choice, quality and the freedom for every guest to create a meal that reflects their individual tastes. We are proud to introduce the brand to Asia and committed to delivering the authentic Chipotle experience our guests expect."
Real Ingredients, Prepared Fresh
Chipotle's menu is built from real ingredients and contains no artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. The brand's culinary approach emphasizes classic cooking techniques and fresh preparation, with ingredients chopped, seasoned, grilled and prepared in the restaurant throughout the day.
Guests in Seoul can customize burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas and salads with familiar Chipotle ingredients and recipes, bringing the brand's signature menu to South Korea.
In partnership with Sangmidang Holdings, Chipotle plans to continue its expansion with two more locations in South Korea by the end of 2026, followed by its first restaurant in Singapore in 2027.
Chipotle's business development group, led by Chief Business Development Officer Nate Lawton, is exploring additional opportunities for growth via outside partnerships. Information on submitting a proposal can be found at https://ir.chipotle.com/contact-us.
About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,200 restaurants as of June 30, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in the United States, Canada and Europe. With nearly 140,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit chipotle.com.
About Sangmidang Holdings and Big Bite Company
Sangmidang Holdings is a South Korea-based global food company with more than 80 years of history. The company owns 30 well-known brands, including Paris Baguette, Paris Croissant, Passion 5, Coffee@Works and StrEAT, and operates approximately 7,000 locations worldwide.
Sangmidang Holdings has also successfully introduced a number of global brands to the South Korean market, including Baskin-Robbins, Dunkin', Pascucci, LINA'S, Jamba and Shake Shack.
Big Bite Company is a restaurant-focused company affiliated with Sangmidang Holdings, with experience operating global restaurant brands in South Korea. It operates Chipotle South Korea through S&C Restaurants Holdings Pte. Ltd., a joint venture established with Chipotle.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the timing of opening Chipotle restaurants in South Korea, Chipotle's plans to open a restaurant in Singapore and Chipotle's prospects for business in Asia. We use words such as "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "should," "may," "will" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and speak only as of the date they are made. We assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.
Chipotle Mexican Grill oznámí hospodářské výsledky za 3. čtvrtletí 2026 28. října a následně uspořádá konferenční hovor. Současně zveřejní i aktualizaci výhledu podnikání za dosavadní 4. čtvrtletí.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) will host a conference call on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 4:30 p.m. ET to discuss third quarter 2026 financial results and provide a business update for the fourth quarter to date.
A press release with third quarter financial results will be issued at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
Participants can join the conference call by dialing 1-888-317-6003 and will be prompted to enter the code 6029014. International callers can dial 1-412-317-6061 and will be prompted to enter the code 6029014.
The call will also be webcast live from the company's website on the investor relations page at ir.chipotle.com, and registration is available at https://app.webinar.net/eoKjwMGDP7l. An archived webcast will be available approximately one hour after the end of the call.
ABOUT CHIPOTLE
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,200 restaurants as of June 30, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in the United States, Canada and Europe. With nearly 140,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit chipotle.com.
Chipotle za 2. čtvrtletí překonala odhady zisku i tržeb, když EPS činil 33 centů a tržby dosáhly 3,35 miliardy USD. Akcie ale za zhruba měsíc od výsledků klesly asi o 3,4 %.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Chipotle due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Chipotle Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat EstimatesChipotle reported second-quarter 2026 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top line increased year over year, while adjusted earnings remained unchanged from the prior-year quarter.
The company benefited from new restaurant openings, positive comparable restaurant sales and transaction growth. Marketing initiatives, menu innovation, Chipotle Rewards engagement and hospitality investments also supported performance. However, inflation, higher ingredient usage and increased operating expenses pressured margins.
CMG’s Q2 Earnings & Revenue DiscussionFor the quarter under review, CMG reported adjusted earnings per share of 33 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 32 cents by 3.13%. The bottom line remained unchanged from the year-ago quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $3.35 billion surpassed the consensus mark of $3.32 billion by 0.81%. The top line increased 9.3% year over year, driven primarily by new restaurant openings and comparable restaurant sales growth.
Comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2% against a 4% decline reported in the prior-year quarter. The improvement reflected a 1% increase in transactions and a 1.2% rise in average check.
During the second quarter, digital sales contributed 38.3% to total food and beverage revenues, up from 35.5% in the year-ago period. The Rewards relaunch, Summer of Extras campaign and new in-restaurant enrollment tools supported digital engagement.
CMG’s Q2 Costs, Operating Highlights & Net IncomeFood, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, were 29.7%, up from 28.9% in the year-ago quarter. The increase reflected inflation in beef and freight, along with higher protein and produce usage. Menu price increases and lower avocado and dairy costs partly offset these pressures.
Labor costs as a percentage of revenues came in at 25% compared with 24.7% reported in the prior-year quarter. The rise was attributable to wage inflation, performance-based bonuses and additional restaurant labor supporting operational and hospitality initiatives. Other operating costs represented 14.9% of revenues compared with 14% a year ago. Higher marketing, insurance, maintenance and utility expenses contributed to the increase.
In the second quarter, restaurant-level operating margin came in at 25.2% compared with 27.4% reported in the prior-year quarter. We predicted the metric to be 25%. Operating margin in the quarter declined 250 basis points year over year to 15.7%. We predicted the metric to be 15.9%.
Adjusted net income totaled $418.9 million compared with $450.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $418.8 million.
Balance Sheet of ChipotleAs of June 30, 2026, Chipotle had cash and cash equivalents of $228.2 million compared with $350.5 million as of Dec. 31, 2025.
During the quarter, CMG repurchased $630.7 million of stock at an average price of $32.55 per share. The company had $1.7 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorizations at quarter-end. For the first six months of 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $1.33 billion compared with $1.12 billion in the year-ago period.
Chipotle’s Restaurant OpeningsStrength in new restaurant openings aided the company’s performance in the second quarter. Chipotle opened 100 company-owned restaurants, of which 80 featured a Chipotlane. It also opened one international partner-operated restaurant.
As of June 30, 2026, the company operated 4,186 company-owned restaurants and 15 partner-operated locations. Average restaurant sales were $3.102 million compared with $3.142 million in the prior-year quarter.
Chipotlanes continued to support guest convenience, new restaurant sales, margins and returns. Management remains confident in the company’s ability to operate at least 7,000 restaurants across North America.
CMG’s 2026 OutlookFor 2026, management now expects comparable restaurant sales growth in the low-single-digit range.
The company continues to anticipate 350-370 new restaurant openings, including 10-15 international partner-operated restaurants. Around 80% of new company-owned restaurants are expected to feature a Chipotlane.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM ScoresAt this time, Chipotle has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Chipotle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Chipotle vidí prostor pro nejméně 7 000 restaurací v Severní Americe a dál počítá s asi 350 otevřeními ročně. Nové pobočky si drží zhruba 80% produktivitu a ve druhém roce návratnost vloženého kapitálu kolem 60 %.
Key Takeaways Chipotle sees room for 7,000 North American restaurants while sustaining about 350 annual company openings.CMG's new restaurants maintain roughly 80% productivity, with second-year cash-on-cash returns near 60%.High-efficiency equipment is boosting peak throughput and is targeted for systemwide rollout in 2027. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) continues to see the potential to operate at least 7,000 restaurants in North America while maintaining a measured development strategy. The company continues to view approximately 350 company-operated openings annually as a sustainable pace, reflecting an emphasis on preserving restaurant execution and the strength of the existing store base as the system expands.
The expansion case is supported by resilient new-unit economics. New restaurant productivity has remained around 80%, while second-year cash-on-cash returns continue to approximate 60%. Meanwhile, the impact of new openings on comparable restaurant sales has held at roughly 100 basis points, consistent with historical levels, even as Chipotle adds restaurants in some of its more densely penetrated markets.
Operational investments could provide additional support as the restaurant base grows. Chipotle’s high-efficiency equipment package is improving food preparation and throughput, with equipped restaurants outperforming the broader system by two to three entrees during peak 15-minute periods. The equipment is now standard in new restaurants, while Chipotle hopes to complete the rollout across the existing portfolio sometime in 2027.
The development model, however, remains sensitive to the pace of expansion. Chipotle has acknowledged that accelerating materially beyond its current annual opening rate could create diminishing returns or place pressure on the existing restaurant network.
CMG’s ability to reach 7,000 North American restaurants without weakening store economics will likely depend on whether its disciplined development approach continues to hold as the footprint expands. So far, stable new-unit productivity and returns suggest that the company’s growth runway remains intact.
Chipotle’s Competitive LandscapeCAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is also expanding rapidly while maintaining strong new-unit performance. The company ended the second quarter with 476 restaurants after opening 17 net new locations and expects 75-77 net new openings in 2026. New restaurant productivity remained above 100%, with recent openings exceeding expectations on both sales and margin performance, while systemwide average unit volumes reached $3.1 million. CAVA is also incorporating recent opening performance into its site-selection models as it seeks to maintain attractive cash-on-cash returns as development continues.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) , meanwhile, is pursuing the fastest period of restaurant growth in its history but has adjusted its development pace to preserve attractive returns. The company now expects to reach 50,000 restaurants globally in 2028 rather than by the end of 2027, citing a pressured consumer environment and cumulative inflation in development costs. McDonald’s remains on track for about 2,600 gross openings in 2026 and continues to allocate capital to new restaurants based on their ability to generate attractive returns. The company emphasized that the timing adjustment reflects a focus on quality over quantity and ensuring new openings deliver appropriate returns.
The competitive backdrop reinforces the importance of balancing expansion with restaurant economics. CAVA is demonstrating strong productivity from a much smaller base, while McDonald’s is adjusting development to protect returns as costs and consumer conditions evolve. For Chipotle, maintaining disciplined development as market density rises will be important to preserving the economic strength that supports its long-term North American growth opportunity.
CMG’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Chipotle have declined 19.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 7.3%.
CMG One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Chipotle trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.16, above the industry’s average of 3.11.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of 2.6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CMG Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG’s Zacks RankChipotle stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways Chipotle raised its 2026 comp outlook to low-single-digit growth after Q2 comps rose 2.2%.Chipotle's Recipe for Growth, menu innovation and improved throughput are supporting customer demand.Q3 comps are expected near 1%, making sustained traffic growth crucial to the recovery.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is showing early signs of recovery after a difficult start to 2026. The company raised its full-year comparable sales outlook to the low-single-digit range, supported by improving traffic and stronger execution.
In the second quarter, comparable sales increased 2.2%, helped by 1% transaction growth. Revenues climbed 9.3% to $3.3 billion, while digital sales reached 38.3% of total sales.
Several initiatives are beginning to support demand. Chipotle's Recipe for Growth strategy focuses on menu innovation, restaurant execution, loyalty and digital engagement. The return of Chipotle Honey Chicken and the popularity of Cilantro Lime Sauce helped attract customers. Management also expects these initiatives to create additional transaction growth into 2027.
Operational improvements provide another potential catalyst. The company's high-efficiency equipment package is improving throughput, with equipped restaurants processing two to three additional entrees during peak periods. The rollout is expected to reach about 2,000 restaurants by year-end.
Still, the recovery is not without risks. Management expects third-quarter comps of roughly 1% amid softer recent trends and challenging comparisons.
Overall, Chipotle appears to be moving in the right direction. But sustained traffic growth will be crucial to prove that the worst is truly over.
CMG’s Recovery Stands Out Among Fast-Casual PeersChipotle appears better positioned than some fast-casual rivals as consumer demand remains uneven. CAVA Group (CAVA - Free Report) delivered strong second-quarter 2026 results, with same-restaurant sales rising 9%, supported by 5.3% guest traffic growth. The company also maintained its full-year outlook for 4.5-6.5% same-restaurant sales growth. CAVA’s performance highlights the importance of traffic and menu appeal in a cautious spending environment.
Sweetgreen (SG - Free Report) faced a more difficult quarter. Its second-quarter 2026 same-store sales declined 6.2%, while traffic fell 2%. Sweetgreen also lowered its full-year outlook and now expects same-store sales to decline 7-8% in 2026.
Against these contrasting trends, CMG's low-single-digit 2026 comp outlook looks relatively encouraging. Its second-quarter comparable sales increased 2.2%, with transactions up 1%. Management also sees further potential from menu innovation, Rewards, digital initiatives and improved restaurant throughput.
CMG’s Stock Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of Chipotle have declined 10.1% in the past six months, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500.
CMG Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CMG trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.99, below the industry’s average of 3.17.
CMG’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Trend of CMG StockIn the past 30 days, the earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have witnessed upward revisions.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CMG currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The opening at Sidra in Riyadh marks Chipotle's entry into the Kingdom and continues the brand's expansion across the Middle East with franchise partner Alshaya Group , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced the opening of its first restaurant in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) later this month in partnership with Alshaya Group, a leading international franchise retail operator. Located at Sidra, the premier dining destination in Riyadh next to the Granada Mall, the restaurant marks Chipotle's entry into Saudi Arabia and another milestone in the company's international growth strategy.
Chipotle will open its first restaurant in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia later this month at Sidra in Riyadh, in partnership with Alshaya Group. The opening marks Chipotle’s entry into Saudi Arabia and continues the brand’s expansion across the Middle East. The Riyadh restaurant will serve Chipotle's menu of burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas and salads, all made with responsibly sourced, classically cooked real ingredients and prepared in an open kitchen. Guests will be able to customize their meals with a choice of proteins, rice, beans, salsas, toppings and Chipotle's signature hand-mashed guacamole.
"We're pleased to introduce Chipotle to guests in Saudi Arabia for the first time," said Nate Lawton, Chief Business Development Officer at Chipotle. "Expanding into the Kingdom advances our international growth strategy and provides a compelling opportunity to serve one of the Middle East's most dynamic consumer markets. Riyadh is home to one of the region's leading shopping and leisure destinations, making it an exceptional place to introduce our brand to both local guests and international visitors. Together with Alshaya Group, we look forward to delivering the distinctive Chipotle experience and establishing a strong long-term presence in the country."
The opening builds on Chipotle's continued expansion in partnership with Alshaya Group. Since 2024, Chipotle has opened 16 restaurants across the Middle East, including seven in the United Arab Emirates, seven in Kuwait and two in Qatar.
Jeff Kellen, President, Hospitality division at Alshaya Group, said: "Since its launch in the region over two years ago, Chipotle has surpassed all expectations to become one of our most loved brands. Knowing how eagerly consumers in KSA have awaited its arrival, we look forward to meeting their expectations with Chipotle's delicious, fresh, and real-ingredient menu."
Chipotle's International Growth
Chipotle continues to expand its international footprint with more than 80 company-owned restaurants in Canada, 21 in the U.K., six in France and two in Germany. The company, in partnership with Alsea, a leading restaurant operator in Latin America, recently entered Mexico with its first restaurant in Nuevo León. Chipotle currently operates more than 4,200 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026 as it continues to execute its "Recipe for Growth" strategy, including a target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada.
Chipotle's business development group, led by Lawton, continues to evaluate strategic opportunities to accelerate the company's global expansion through partnerships, joint ventures and development agreements. Information on submitting a proposal can be found at https://ir.chipotle.com/contact-us.
About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,200 restaurants as of June 30, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in the United States, Canada and Europe. With nearly 140,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit Chipotle.com.
About Alshaya Group
Alshaya Group is a dynamic family-owned business, first established in Kuwait in 1890. With a consistent record of growth and innovation, Alshaya Group is one of the world's leading brand franchise operators, offering an unparalleled choice of over 50 well-loved, international brands to customers.
Alshaya Group's portfolio extends across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Türkiye and Europe, with over 3,500 stores, cafes, restaurants, and leisure destinations, major logistics and food production operations, as well as over 125 online and digital businesses including one of the region's biggest retail loyalty programmes, Aura.
Operating in multiple sectors including Fashion, Food, Health & Beauty, Pharmacy, and Hospitality & Entertainment, over 50,000 Alshaya colleagues are united by a commitment to authentically deliver great customer service and brand experiences.
Learn more about Alshaya Group at www.alshaya.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the timing of opening the first Chipotle restaurant in Saudi Arabia, Chipotle's prospects for business in Mexico, the Middle East and Asia, Chipotle's plans to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026, and its "Recipe for Growth," including its target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. We use words such as "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "should," "may," "are confident" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and speak only as of the date they are made. We assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.
Computer Modelling Group oznámila za 1. fiskální čtvrtletí tržby C$27,8 milionu, meziročně nižší, protože růst z akvizic převážil pokles organických tržeb. Management zároveň potvrdil celoroční výhled stabilních organických opakujících se tržeb a bez poklesu upravené EBITDA oproti fiskálnímu roku 2026.
Computer Modelling Group TSE: CMG said first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue declined as growth from recent acquisitions was outweighed by lower organic revenue and a planned reduction in non-core professional services work, while management reaffirmed its full-year outlook for stable organic recurring revenue and no reduction in adjusted EBITDA from fiscal 2026.
Total revenue for the quarter was C$27.8 million, down year over year. Chief Financial Officer Vipin Khullar said 10% growth from acquisitions was offset by a 16% organic decline. Organic recurring revenue fell 12% during the quarter, which Chief Executive Officer Pramod Jain said marked the final period affected by the comparison with a contract lost last year.
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“Our outlook is for stabilization to return to the business,” Jain said, adding that the company remains focused on organic growth, acquisitions and capital deployment toward what it considers the highest risk-adjusted-return opportunities.
Acquisition Growth Offsets Part of Organic Decline Recurring revenue declined 3% overall in the first quarter. Khullar said acquired businesses contributed 9% recurring revenue growth, including SeisWare and Rose, which were acquired during fiscal 2026. Both acquisitions contributed positively to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter despite seasonal revenue recognition that is weighted toward the second half of the year, he said.
Professional services revenue also declined organically. Khullar attributed the drop primarily to the end of CoFlow-related development funding at the close of calendar 2025 and the continuing wind-down of non-core professional services activity at Bluware. He said CMG had underwritten the Bluware acquisition based on its software growth potential and expected non-core services to be phased out.
Rose partly offset that reduction, with acquired professional services revenue rising 13% and Rose producing a strong first full quarter under CMG ownership, according to Khullar.
Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased in the quarter because of lower organic recurring revenue and professional services revenue, though the company cited continued cost management. Free cash flow fell to C$3.5 million, reflecting revenue trends and higher income taxes.
Current income tax expense was C$1.5 million, compared with C$900,000 a year earlier. Khullar said the current-quarter amount included a C$400,000 prior-period adjustment and noted that tax expense can fluctuate depending on the jurisdictional mix of income, taxation of cross-border transactions and foreign exchange movements.
Management Reaffirms Full-Year Outlook For the second quarter, CMG expects organic recurring revenue to increase sequentially as a larger portion of renewals occurs in the period. Khullar said the company’s recurring revenue typically builds through the fiscal year, with the first quarter usually its lightest and the fourth quarter generally its heaviest.
However, CMG expects professional services revenue to decline both sequentially and year over year in the second quarter. The company expects the period to be the fiscal year’s lowest quarter for professional services, citing the completion of the Bluware services wind-down, product timing and lower billable activity during summer months.
CMG also expects adjusted EBITDA to decline sequentially and year over year in the second quarter, driven by lower professional services revenue and higher sales and marketing expenses tied to agent commissions on second-quarter contract renewals.
Stable organic recurring revenue growth for fiscal 2027. No reduction in adjusted EBITDA relative to fiscal 2026. Year-over-year improvement in free cash flow. A professional services revenue decline of C$6 million to C$7 million for the year, toward the higher end of the range. Khullar said the revised professional-services outlook reflects a faster-than-forecast wind-down of Bluware’s non-core services operations.
Energy Security and EOR Opportunities Jain said customer discussions point to greater interest in maximizing recovery from existing assets, including through enhanced oil recovery, or EOR, technologies. He said operators are targeting recovery factors as high as 50% and that CMG is directing sales efforts toward the growing importance of EOR globally.
Management also cited increased opportunities for its portfolio approach, in which customers can use multiple technologies from CMG’s acquired businesses alongside its reservoir simulation products. Jain said CMG is increasingly pursuing joint proposals involving two or three companies in its group.
He highlighted renewed interest from international operators in Venezuela, Mexico, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria and Libya, describing those locations as markets with complex reservoirs, heavy oil and mature fields. Jain cautioned that it remains early but said the company sees opportunities developing across the group.
During the question-and-answer session, Jain said EOR processes can take time to move from requests for proposals to commercial wins, but he is seeing more opportunities nearer to commercialization than in the past. He also said CMG renewed all of its contracts in the Middle East, though prospective business in countries where it did not previously have a presence was delayed by regional conflict.
Share Repurchase to Be Funded Through Credit Facility CMG announced a substantial issuer bid and expects to draw up to C$20 million from its existing credit facility to fund it. Jain said the company believes its shares are trading below what the business is worth and views the repurchase as an opportunistic use of capital while maintaining its acquisition strategy.
Over the past two-and-a-half years, CMG has deployed more than C$90 million and completed four major acquisitions. Jain said the acquisition pipeline remains active, but the company is maintaining its standards on price and expected returns.
Khullar said expected fiscal 2027 free cash flow should be more than sufficient to deleverage the portion of the credit facility used to fund the issuer bid. Jain said acquisitions and buybacks are not mutually exclusive, and that CMG intends to continue pursuing transactions that meet or exceed its return thresholds.
About Computer Modelling Group (TSE:CMG)Computer Modelling Group Ltd is a Canada-based provider of reservoir simulation software for the oil and gas industry. Its capabilities include integrated analysis and optimization, black oil and unconventional simulation, reservoir and production system modelling, post-processor visualization, compositional simulation, thermal processes simulation, and fluid property characterization. The firm has operations in over 60 countries in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions.
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Chipotle za týden klesl o 12,64 % a je více než 26 % pod cílovou cenou Wall Street ve výši 44,32 USD. Po výsledcích za 2. čtvrtletí, kdy tržby dosáhly 3,35 mld. USD a EPS činil 33 centů, zůstává konsenzus stále na úrovni Moderate Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG | CMG Price Prediction) has dropped 12.64% over the past week, opening Monday, Aug. 10, at $32.44. That puts the stock more than 26% below Wall Street’s consensus price target of $44.32. The selloff extends a brutal year for the fast-casual chain, with shares down 12.71% year to date, 21.37% over the past 12 months and 7.16% over the past month alone.
Chipotle operates over 4,000 restaurants serving customizable burritos, bowls and tacos. The company has been a growth story for years, but recent results show the wheels coming off. The gap between Chipotle’s current price and analyst targets reflects a market pricing in serious headwinds that Wall Street may be underestimating.
Transaction Declines and Margin Pressure Hit Hard The selloff accelerated after Chipotle reported Q2 results on July 29. Revenue came in at $3.35 billion, barely beating the $3.33 billion estimate, while EPS of 33 cents only beat the 32-cent consensus by a penny.
Restaurant-level margin fell 220 basis points to 25.2%, while cost of sales, labor, and other operating expenses all increased. The margin story gets worse when you dig into the cost structure. CFO Adam Rymer explained that “Pricing discipline (1-2% vs. 3-4% inflation) [is] creating 150 bps headwind” for the full year. Management warned of heightened consumer caution, difficult promotional comparisons and an approximately 200-basis-point sales headwind related to industry concerns around Cyclospora; it expects roughly 1% comparable-sales growth in Q3 if the impact persists.
Wall Street Still Sees the Growth Story Intact Despite the weak results and cautious guidance, analyst targets remain well above current levels. Of the 33 analysts covering Chipotle, 24 rate it a Buy and nine rate it a Hold and zero rate it a Sell. Overall, the stock receives a consensus Moderate Buy rating, with an average price target that implies as much as 35% upside potential from current prices.
The bull case centers on Chipotle’s long-term unit growth potential and operational initiatives. Management plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026, with 80% featuring Chipotlane drive-thru formats. The company is also rolling out high-efficiency kitchen equipment to 2,000 restaurants by year-end 2026, which management claims is already driving “hundreds of basis points of improvement in comp sales” in test locations.
Analysts also point to Chipotle’s affluent customer base as a defensive moat. Boatwright noted that “60% of our core users are over $100,000 a year in income,” suggesting pricing power with less economically sensitive consumers. The company is increasing menu innovation to four limited-time offers in 2026 and relaunching its rewards program to drive frequency.
Key Factors to Watch The bull case strengthens if management proves it can stabilize transactions and protect margins despite the inflation squeeze. The equipment rollout and menu innovation could drive a meaningful reacceleration in the back half of 2026. The unit growth story remains intact, and the brand still commands premium positioning in fast-casual dining. If comparable sales inflect positive by mid-year and restaurant-level margins hold above 23%, the 22% upside to analyst targets could materialize.
The bear case persists if transaction trends continue deteriorating and margin pressure extends through the first half. The guidance for flat comps embeds expectations of negative 1% to negative 2% underlying trends in the first quarter. Labor and commodity inflation are structural headwinds that won’t disappear quickly. Peer McDonald’s trades at 27x earnings with a 2.16% dividend yield and 45.1% operating margins, offering defensive stability Chipotle can’t match right now.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Salad and Go podalo návrh na bankrot podle kapitoly 11 5. srpna a uzavřelo všechny provozovny. Sweetgreen kvůli obavám z nákazy 6. srpna snížil celoroční výhled na same-store sales -8,0 % až -7,0 % a upravenou EBITDA na -27,0 milionu až -23,0 milionu dolarů.
On July 21, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told reporters, “We do have the outbreak under control.” At that moment the multistate cyclosporiasis outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce had sickened roughly 1,600 people across five states, with 94 hospitalizations and no deaths. Three weeks later, the case count has nearly quadrupled, two deaths have been recorded, and a national salad chain has filed for bankruptcy. The gap between the podium and the produce aisle has rarely been wider.
What Kennedy Said, and the Wrinkle Behind It Kennedy added that “We have an extensive forensics, epidemiological forensics, and we’ve identified the source of the outbreak. We and the companies that are involved have implemented a recall.” The recall referenced iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms de Mexico, pulled July 17, 2026. But days before Kennedy spoke, the FDA had acknowledged a Taylor Farms sample came back a false positive, muddying the “identified” claim in real time. Subsequent CDC and FDA updates converged back on Taylor Farms. The confidence did not.
What the Numbers Actually Show The CDC’s August 5 update logged 6,358 illnesses across 15 states, at least 278 hospitalizations, and two deaths, both in Michigan, with onset dates running June 22 through July 31. Separately, the FDA has estimated “at least 10,000” sickened, and more than 25,000 Cyclospora infections have been logged nationally this year, more than five times the prior record set in 2019, a broader tally that includes clusters unrelated to this outbreak.
The Salad Chain That Didn’t Serve the Lettuce Here is the twist: none of the hardest-hit healthy chains used the recalled iceberg. They got wrecked anyway. Salad and Go filed for Chapter 11 on August 5, closing all locations and citing the outbreak as an accelerant to existing pressures. Chopt saw traffic fall 24% on July 18, the day after the FDA announcement (Placer.ai via CNBC). Sweetgreen (NYSE:SG) said consumer concerns produced roughly a 6-percentage-point drag on July same-store sales; CEO Jonathan Neman noted on X that the chain has never served iceberg lettuce and sources only U.S.-grown greens. On August 6, Sweetgreen cut full-year guidance to same-store sales of -8.0% to -7.0% and adjusted EBITDA of -$27.0 million to -$23.0 million. The stock is down 35.41% since July 10.
The Contrast: Taco Bell and Chipotle Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM | YUM Price Prediction), whose Taco Bell was the only major chain actually linked to the recall, took an early hit, with foot traffic down 20.8% on July 23 versus comparable Thursdays. CEO Chris Turner said on the Q2 call that “Elevated uncertainty initially weighed on consumer demand. Since then, consumers have become increasingly aware that this is an industry-wide issue, not an issue specific to Taco Bell.” Taco Bell still delivered 7% same-store sales growth. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) CFO Adam Rymer flagged “a softening, call it about 200 basis points or so” in late July from cyclospora fears, separate from Chipotle’s salmonella recall tied to jalapenos that sickened roughly 300 people.
The Category Absorbs the Blow NielsenIQ pegged fresh lettuce unit sales down 9% for the week ending July 18 and prepackaged salad dollar sales down 14% for the four weeks ended July 25. Sysco stopped buying Mexican iceberg entirely, even as CEO Kevin Hourican called Taylor Farms a “high quality, high integrity shop.” Local growers benefited: farmers-market sales rose 15% to 30% in some markets (WSJ, via Forbes).
Stabilizing signals are emerging. Michigan lifted its precautionary advisory on bagged salad mixes on August 6 as new infections slowed. But three weeks after a Cabinet secretary declared the outbreak “under control,” one chain is gone, another has slashed guidance, and the produce aisle is still recovering trust it did not lose on its own.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill tento týden klesá o více než 13 % po zprávách o spojení s výskytem salmonely v Minnesotě. Úřady vyšetřují 110 případů a z 84 dotázaných nakažených 75 uvedlo, že před onemocněním jedlo v restauraci Chipotle. Chipotle stáhly podezřelé jalapeños z dotčených provozoven.
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) are trading lower by over 13% this week following news connecting the restaurant chain to a salmonella outbreak in Minnesota.
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock is facing resistance. Why are CMG shares declining? Minnesota Salmonella Outbreak Linked to Chipotle JalapeñosHealth department officials reported 110 cases of salmonella across the state. Among 84 infected individuals interviewed by health investigators, 75 reported eating at a Chipotle restaurant before becoming sick.
In response, Chipotle proactively removed jalapeños, the produce suspected to be linked to the illnesses, from affected locations.
Additionally, on Wednesday, Chipotle filed an SEC Form 8-K noting that public health authorities, including the FDA, are investigating a retail supply chain salmonella outbreak. Minnesota health officials confirmed they have no ongoing concerns regarding Chipotle.
Wall Street Reacts to Chipotle Food Safety HistoryThis week’s selloff market reaction stems from Wall Street’s sensitivity to Chipotle’s history with food safety issues. Previous outbreaks severe enough to cause store avoidance led to margin compression and lower valuation multiples for the company.
Beyond the immediate damage to reputation, this outbreak potentially creates operational issues and cost pressures. Pulled ingredients and switching to alternative growers disrupt local supply chains while increasing operating overhead in the short term.
Investors are potentially pricing in potential risks like legal expenses, regulatory scrutiny and a temporary slowdown in regional sales.
CMG Shares Edge Lower FridayCMG Price Action: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares were down 1.36% at $33.25 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Akcie Chipotle klesly v úterý odpoledne o 6,22 % poté, co zdravotní úřady v Minnesotě spojily salmonelovou nákazu s jejími provozovnami. Firma kvůli tomu stahuje jalapeños.
Chipotle Mexican Grill shares are sliding. Why are CMG shares down? Minnesota Health Officials Trace Salmonella Outbreak to Chipotle OutletsInvestor Fears and Historical Food Safety PrecedentsThe sell-off reflects investor anxiety surrounding food safety liabilities and potential brand degradation. Chipotle’s business model depends heavily on customer trust and fresh ingredient integrity.
Outbreaks of foodborne illnesses present an existential risk to foot traffic and same-store sales growth, as health scares tend to deter consumers and slow transaction volumes.
Wall Street remains hypersensitive to food safety incidents at Chipotle due to historical outbreaks that previously triggered widespread store avoidance, steep margin compression and sharp contractions in the company’s valuation multiple.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Financial FalloutBeyond immediate reputation damage, the outbreak introduces operational friction and cost pressures. Removing key ingredients and switching to alternative growers disrupts localized supply chain networks and increases short-term operating overhead.
Investors are potentially pricing in the risk of heightened regulatory scrutiny, potential legal expenses and temporary sales slumps across impacted regional markets.
CMG Shares Slide Tuesday AfternoonCMG Price Action: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares were down 6.22% at $35.13 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Chipotle ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 9,3 % na 3,3 miliardy USD a upravila celoroční výhled růstu srovnatelných tržeb na nízké jednociferné tempo. Zisk na akcii byl 0,33 USD, meziročně beze změny.
Investors Are Buying Into Sweetgreen Again—Should They?Chipotle Mexican Grill NYSE: CMG reported second-quarter revenue growth of 9.3% to $3.3 billion, supported by a 2.2% increase in comparable restaurant sales and a 1% increase in comparable transactions. The company said its “Recipe for Growth” strategy, including menu innovation, restaurant execution investments and rewards-program changes, contributed to the quarter’s results.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.33, unchanged from the prior year. Restaurant-level margin was 25.2%, down 220 basis points year over year, as higher food, labor, marketing and other operating costs offset pricing and certain commodity benefits.
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Sales Momentum and Updated Outlook Shake Shack Stock Gets Shaken After Earnings MissChief Financial Officer Adam Rymer said traffic improved through the second quarter and into the first half of July. However, trends softened in the second half of July amid broader consumer caution in the restaurant industry and concern surrounding Cyclospora.
Rymer said Chipotle observed roughly a 200-basis-point sales impact around the industry issue and now expects third-quarter comparable sales growth of approximately 1%, assuming that impact persists through the remainder of the quarter. Chief Executive Officer Scott Boatwright said the company is not involved in the Cyclospora matter and does not use the products implicated in the discussion, adding that its lettuce is sourced in California.
Chipotle Stock Just Hit Bottom—Is a Breakout Next?For the full year, the company raised its outlook and now expects comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single-digit range. Pricing contributed approximately 1.6% in the second quarter and is expected to rise to the mid-2% range in the third quarter. Chipotle expects full-year pricing to land near the high end of its previously communicated 1% to 2% range.
Digital sales totaled $1.3 billion, representing 38.3% of sales, compared with 35.5% a year earlier. Boatwright attributed digital momentum in part to changes in the rewards program, including more personalized offers, simplified enrollment and expanded redemption options.
Restaurant Execution and Technology Investments Management highlighted continued investments intended to improve speed, food quality and hospitality in restaurants. The company deployed its “Linebacker” staffing approach in more than 70% of restaurants during the quarter and said its focus on execution helped improve “Max 15” peak-period throughput for a second consecutive quarter.
Chipotle’s High-Efficiency Equipment Package, or HEAP, has now been installed in more than 1,000 restaurants. The company expects to reach approximately 2,000 locations by year-end and complete the portfolio rollout sometime in 2027. According to Boatwright, restaurants using HEAP are outperforming the broader system by two to three entrees during their peak 15-minute period, with the gains contributing to comparable-sales improvements.
The company said it is reinvesting labor efficiencies from the equipment package back into restaurants, enabling more staffing during preparation and peak periods. It also is rolling out its Chipotle Kitchen digital make-line interface across restaurants, which management said has shown early improvements in order accuracy, on-time fulfillment and guest satisfaction.
Chipotle plans to begin piloting a frictionless in-restaurant rewards experience in August that would enable guests to earn points automatically when paying, without separately scanning a rewards card. The company said only about 20% of in-restaurant transactions currently scan for rewards, compared with nearly 90% of its own digital transactions. New in-store enrollment tools have driven a nearly 20% increase in daily enrollments since their launch, management said.
Menu Innovation, Marketing and Consumer Trends Chipotle Honey Chicken returned during the quarter and outperformed its prior launch, Boatwright said, reaching a cumulative attachment rate above 25%. Cilantro Lime Sauce also continued to generate attachment rates above those of Red Chimichurri and Adobo Ranch, according to management.
The company expects to introduce two additional limited-time protein offerings in the second half of 2026, while also pursuing innovation in beverages, sides and desserts. Boatwright said limited-time offerings can bring new guests to the brand and increase the lifetime value of customers who try them, while encouraging existing customers to visit more often.
Chipotle also cited marketing campaigns and rewards promotions as contributors to engagement. Its Matchday BOGO promotion set a company single-day sales record and became its most successful BOGO promotion, Boatwright said. Management added that younger customers and lower- to middle-income guests, which had faced more pressure previously, showed the greatest improvement in the second quarter.
Boatwright said the company’s brand tracker showed progress in value perceptions across income groups and age cohorts. He emphasized that value is not solely tied to discounting, but also includes convenience, execution, menu innovation, food quality and portions.
Development, Margins and Capital Allocation Chipotle opened 101 restaurants during the quarter, including 80 Chipotlanes and one international partner-operated restaurant. The company continues to expect approximately 350 openings during 2026, with about 80% including a Chipotlane. Management said new-restaurant productivity has remained in the 80% range, while year-two cash-on-cash returns have continued at approximately 60%.
The company believes North America can support at least 7,000 restaurants. In Europe, each country delivered high-single-digit comparable-sales growth during the quarter, according to Boatwright. Chipotle also opened its first restaurant in Monterrey, Mexico, and plans additional Monterrey-area openings this year before expanding to Mexico City in 2027. First locations in Seoul are expected this year, followed by Singapore in early 2027.
Cost of sales rose about 80 basis points to 29.7% of sales in the second quarter, primarily due to beef and freight inflation and increased usage of chicken, steak and produce. Labor costs increased about 30 basis points to 25%, while other operating costs rose about 90 basis points to 14.9%, driven partly by higher marketing, insurance, maintenance and utility expenses.
Chipotle ended the quarter with $800 million in cash, restricted cash and investments and no debt. The company repurchased $631 million of stock during the quarter at an average price of $32.55 per share, bringing year-to-date repurchases to more than $1.3 billion. Its board authorized an additional $1.3 billion for repurchases, leaving $1.7 billion available at quarter-end.
About Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG)Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant company known for its Mexican-inspired menu of burritos, bowls, tacos and salads. Founded in 1993 by Steve Ells, the chain emphasizes fresh, customizable meals made from a limited menu of core ingredients and a focus on ingredient quality. Chipotle operates primarily company-owned restaurants and offers dine-in, takeout, catering and delivery through its own digital platforms and third-party partners.
The company is headquartered in Newport Beach, California, and traces its roots to Denver, Colorado.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Should You Invest $1,000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill Right Now?Before you consider Chipotle Mexican Grill, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Chipotle Mexican Grill wasn't on the list.
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Chipotle zvýšila celoroční výhled růstu tržeb ze srovnatelných prodejen po lepších než očekávaných výsledcích za 2. čtvrtletí. Upravený zisk na akcii činil 33 centů při tržbách 3,35 miliardy USD.
Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday raised its same-store sales growth forecast for the year after topping analysts' quarterly earnings and revenue expectations.
The restaurant company is now projecting that its same-store sales will increase by a low single digit percentage in 2026, higher than its previous outlook of flat same-store sales for the full year.
After a shaky 2025, Chipotle is successfully luring customers back — even with spiking gas prices and other higher costs pressuring dining budgets.
"We're seeing encouraging progress because we're focused on the right growth drivers—bringing meaningful menu innovation to our guests, deepening engagement through Chipotle Rewards, elevating hospitality in every restaurant, and expanding opportunities to serve more group occasions," CEO Scott Boatwright said in a statement.
Here's what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 33 cents adjusted vs. 32 cents expectedRevenue: $3.35 billion vs. $3.33 billion expected The company's stock climbed about 6% in extended trading.
Chipotle reported second-quarter net income of $403.5 million, or 32 cents per share, down from $436.1 million, or 32 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding impairment and restructuring costs and other items, the company earned 33 cents per share.
Revenue climbed 9.3% to $3.35 billion.
Same-store sales rose 2.2%, lifted by a 1% increase in traffic to restaurants. Total check size inched up 1.2% compared with the year-ago period.
During the quarter, Chipotle opened 100 new locations and one international restaurant operated by a partner.
Chipotle zveřejní výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí ve středu; hlavní bude vývoj transakcí a marže restaurací. Akcie jsou asi 30 % pod 52týdenním maximem 46,61 USD, zatímco 35 analytiků vidí průměrný cíl zhruba 43 USD, tedy asi 30 % výše.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +1.22%) reports second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 29, with its earnings call set for 4:30 p.m. ET.
At about $33 as of this writing, shares sit about 30% below their 52-week high of $46.61, and about 18% above their 52-week low. Meanwhile, the 35 analysts covering the burrito chain carry an average price target of about $43 -- roughly 30% above the stock.
The market, in other words, is priced as if the growth stock's best days are behind it. But the analysts, on average, don't seem to believe that. Wednesday's report should say a lot about which side has it right, and the answer arguably hinges on two lines deep in the release: transactions and restaurant-level margin.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The number to watch is transactions For most of 2025, Chipotle's problem was that fewer people came. Comparable restaurant sales fell 4% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a 4.9% drop in transactions. The fourth quarter was better but still negative, with comparable sales down 2.5% on a 3.2% transaction decline.
For the full year, comparable sales fell 1.7%, with transactions down 2.9%, even as a higher average check offset part of the decline.
The first quarter of 2026 broke the pattern. Comparable sales rose 0.5%, and the growth came from traffic. Transactions increased 0.6%, while the average check slipped 0.1%.
It's a modest number, but I'd argue it's the right kind -- more customers, not just higher prices. CEO Scott Boatwright said the quarter "exceeded expectations" as the company advanced its "Recipe for Growth" strategy.
Worth noting, too: the quarter Chipotle is about to report laps that minus-4% period from a year ago, the softest comparison on the calendar. If transactions can't grow against that bar, the recovery case weakens considerably.
The rest of the growth machine never stopped, either. First-quarter revenue rose 7.4% year over year to $3.1 billion. The company opened 49 restaurants during the period, 42 of them with a Chipotlane drive-through lane, bringing its base to about 4,090 company-owned locations. And digital orders ran at 38.6% of food and beverage revenue.
Full-year guidance calls for 350 to 370 new locations, including 10 to 15 run by international partners. That works out to nearly a new restaurant a day.
What the recovery is costing Traffic is coming back at a price, though. Chipotle's adjusted restaurant-level operating margin (the profitability of the restaurants themselves, before corporate costs) was 23.7% in the first quarter, down from 26.2% a year earlier. Operating margin fell to 12.9% from 16.7%. And non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share declined 17.2% year over year to $0.24.
So Wednesday's report has to show two things moving the right way at once. A second consecutive quarter of positive transactions would show the traffic turn is holding. And an adjusted restaurant-level margin near the first quarter's 23.7%, rather than another step down, would show the company isn't simply buying its customers back.
Guidance matters, too. Management's current outlook calls for about flat comparable sales in 2026. Holding that line, or nudging it higher, would say the first quarter wasn't a fluke.
Meanwhile, the valuation bar the stock has to clear is not demanding.
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At about 29 times earnings, Chipotle trades at about the same multiple as the S&P 500, and at about 27 times forward earnings estimates. At its 52-week high, the market paid nearly $47 for this business. It now pays about $33.
Of course, a cheaper-than-usual Chipotle isn't automatically a buy. Restaurant margins are still sliding, and the traffic recovery is, so far, exactly one quarter old. A single quarter could easily prove to be noise.
So, should investors buy ahead of the report? I personally wouldn't. At a market multiple, Chipotle doesn't need a heroic quarter, just confirmation. But with the whole case resting on one quarter of positive traffic, waiting a day for proof seems like a fair trade. If transactions hold positive and the margin stops sliding, I'd get interested, even at a somewhat higher price. If traffic flips negative again, the market's skepticism will have been right, and a better entry point could follow.
Wednesday afternoon, the transaction line is the first number I'll check.
Chipotle v roce 2025 odkoupila akcie za 2,4 mld. USD za průměrných 42,54 USD, zatímco se titul obchoduje kolem 31,79 USD. Před výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí jí zbývá ještě asi 1,7 mld. USD na zpětný odkup.
The bull thesis for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) today is straightforward: management repurchased $2.4B of stock in 2025 at an average price of $42.54. Shares now trade well below that mark at about $31.79, and the company has about $1.7 billion in fresh share repurchase capacity ahead of Q2 earnings results arriving on July 29. The current level marks a notable reset for a business that has historically compounded.
Three Reasons Chipotle Stands Out Right Now The stock is down 30% in the past year. CMG trades at a P/E of 29 against a forward EPS of $1.35, with the stock sitting 30.5% below where it traded a year ago. Over the past decade, shares have still returned 268.92%. The 2026 drawdown reflects multiple compression while unit economics have held.
The path from 4,000 to 7,000 stores. Chipotle ended 2025 with 4,042 company-owned locations and is guiding 350 to 370 new openings for 2026 against a long-term target of 7,000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada. Full-year 2025 operating cash flow reached $2.114 billion. That funds the build-out without leverage.
Wall Street sees upside. Analyst ratings sit at 26 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, with a consensus price target of $42.94, implying about 43% upside with the stock trading around $33. Polymarket traders assign a 60.5% probability to a Q2 earnings beat this Wednesday.
Chipotle Offers More Scale Than CAVA and More Growth Than McDonald’s CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) is a growth darling in this industry, but CAVA trades at a materially richer earnings multiple against a much smaller footprint. Chipotle offers roughly one-quarter the earnings multiple on nearly nine times the store base and superior cash generation.
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McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) trades at a lower earnings multiple and offers a dividend yield, but Chipotle’s restaurant growth pace is materially faster. Today, Chipotle offers investors both growth and value.
Weak Traffic Is the Number to Watch on Wednesday Chipotle’s biggest near-term challenge is weak customer traffic, with comparable sales down 2.5% and transactions down 3.2% in Q4. However, restaurant-level margins remain above 23%, the company can fund hundreds of annual openings without taking on debt, and management continues to repurchase shares.
Wednesday’s report will show whether new menu initiatives can stabilize traffic while Chipotle continues expanding toward 7,000 locations. If those trends improve, today’s price could prove attractive relative to management’s own buyback activity and Wall Street’s $42.94 average target.
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Chipotle očekává výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí, zatímco EPS má podle odhadů klesnout z 0,33 USD na 0,32 USD. Pokud zisky znovu klesnou, akcie mohou oslabit.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has been a top-performing stock throughout its history, but more recently, the company has disappointed investors.
The stock is down more than 50% from its peak a few years ago, as it lost star CEO Brian Niccol, same-store sales growth slowed, and its premium valuation compressed as investors dialed back estimates for its long-term growth.
Chipotle is down 10% year-to-date, as its results have underwhelmed. In the first quarter, comparable sales rose 0.5%. In comparison, margins fell sharply with its operating margin declining from 16.7% to 12.9% due in part to its biennial All Managers Conference and higher labor costs from labor inflation.
So what should investors expect when Chipotle reports second-quarter earnings? Let’s take a closer look.
Image source: Chipotle.
Can Chipotle bounce back?Chipotle’s same-store sales in the first quarter were its best performance in at least five quarters, showing the company’s challenges aren’t new. During that time, average restaurant sales declined each quarter, reaching $3.09 million in the first quarter.
Chipotle has struggled for many of the same reasons as its peers. Inflation has pinched consumers, and the company has seen a fall-off in the most economically sensitive customers, including lower-income customers and young adults. Like other fast-casual chains, Chipotle is dealing with the perception that its prices are too high, and it’s also faced stiffer competition from sit-down casual dining chains like Chili’s.
The war in Iran has pushed inflation higher in the second quarter, meaning Chipotle is unlikely to get any relief from discretionary spending at the macro level.
There are some reasons for Chipotle investors to be optimistic. According to data from Placer.ai, a location intelligence platform that tracks store traffic, Chipotle posted positive same-store traffic in every month of the second quarter, averaging about 1% growth.
The collapse in the stock over the last few years also means it is much more reasonably priced than it once was, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 30, about even with the S&P 500. That’s not a great price for a company struggling to grow on the bottom line, but it also means the stock should be stable unless its sales growth turns meaningfully negative.
The company also relaunched its rewards program, adding perks like monthly free food drops and making it easier to redeem points. Sign-ups spiked when the company announced the program.
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What to expect from the Q2 reportBased on the impact of the new loyalty program and Placer.ai data, I think Chipotle is set for same-store sales growth. However, inflation and the loyalty program are likely to continue to pressure the bottom line, and that is what investors are most judging the company on at this point.
In fact, the analyst consensus calls for earnings per share to edge down from $0.33 to $0.32. Given that, I think investors will have to be patient with a Chipotle comeback. If profits fall again, the stock is likely to sell off. Chipotle remains a show-me story at this point. Management will have to show that it has overcome the challenges of the last few years.
Chipotle otevřelo první restauraci v Mexiku, v San Pedro Garza García u Monterrey, v rámci mezinárodní expanze s partnerem Alsea. Další pobočky plánuje v Nuevo León letos a v Mexico City v roce 2027.
Chipotle Mexican Grill opened its first restaurant in Mexico this month as part of the fast-casual chain’s international growth strategy.
The new location opened on July 16 in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, and is being operated in partnership with restaurant operator Alsea, according to a news release from Chipotle.
“We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country’s culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence,” Scott Boatwright, CEO of Chipotle, said in a statement.
“Our research has reinforced our belief that there is strong interest in high-quality, freshly prepared food served with the customization and convenience that Chipotle offers.”
Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional locations in Nuevo León later this year, followed by an expansion into Mexico City in 2027.
The restaurant is the first to open under a development agreement the companies announced in April 2025.
Alsea runs several thousand restaurants from global quick-service, coffee shop and full-service brands in many countries in Latin America and Europe, according to Chipotle.
Chipotle Mexican Grill just opened its first restaurant in Mexico, kicking off a major international expansion. AFP via Getty Images
The new spot in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, is a partnership with restaurant operator Alsea. AFP via Getty Images The new restaurant offers Chipotle’s standard menu of customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and quesadillas. Many ingredients are sourced from regional suppliers, according to the company.
Chipotle said the Monterrey area was selected because of its “strong economy, growing population” and position as a major business hub.
“Bringing Chipotle to Mexico is an important step in our growth and portfolio diversification strategy,” Christian Gurría, CEO of Alsea, said in a statement. “We are introducing an iconic brand with a differentiated value proposition that has resonated with millions of guests around the world, and we are confident it will be warmly welcomed by Mexican consumers.”
Chipotle and Alsea plan more locations in Nuevo León this year, then Mexico City in 2027, expanding its global reach. REUTERS As of March 31, Chipotle operated more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide.
The restaurant chain expects to open between 350 and 370 new locations in 2026. Its international footprint includes restaurants in Canada, Europe and the Middle East, with additional openings planned in South Korea and Singapore.
Chipotle could not immediately be reached by FOX Business for additional comment.
Analytici čekají, že Chipotle oznámí zisk 0,32 USD na akcii, což je meziročně pokles o 3 %. Tržby mají dosáhnout 3,32 miliardy USD, tedy o 8,4 % více než loni.
Analysts on Wall Street project that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 3% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $3.32 billion, increasing 8.4% from the same quarter last year.
Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.
Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors typically rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to gauge how the business may have fared during the quarter, examining analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics often helps gain a deeper insight.
In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain Chipotle metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.
Analysts expect 'Revenue- Food and beverage' to come in at $3.31 billion. The estimate points to a change of +8.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- Delivery service' will reach $16.02 million. The estimate suggests a change of +2.5% year over year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Company-operated restaurants at end of period' reaching 4,160 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3,839 .
Analysts forecast 'Company-operated restaurants opened' to reach 75 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 61 in the same quarter last year.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Company-operated restaurants at beginning of period' will reach 4,090 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 3,781 in the same quarter of the previous year.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Average restaurant sales - TTM' at $3.09 million. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $3.14 million in the same quarter last year.
View all Key Company Metrics for Chipotle here>>>
Chipotle shares have witnessed a change of -0.8% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), CMG is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Chipotle je 39 % pod 52týdenním maximem a investoři čekají na výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí 29. července. V 1. čtvrtletí vzrostly srovnatelné tržby jen o 0,5 % a provozní marže klesla na 12,9 %.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -0.50%) stock has trended downward since 2024, and even when measured against its 52-week high, it is down by 39%. The fast-casual giant that became popular for its healthier food has fallen victim to shifting consumer preferences and the economic challenges facing its customers.
Now, investors await July 29, when the company will release its second-quarter results. But is the stock worth buying before the earnings release, or should investors remain on the sidelines until they get the latest numbers?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The state of Chipotle today Shareholders have had little to celebrate about Chipotle's performance in recent quarters.
In Q1, its comparable-store sales rose by just 0.5%. That's a stark contrast to Q1 2024, when comparable sales grew by 7%. Moreover, its operating margin in Q1 was 12.9%, down from 16.7% one year ago and 16.3% in Q1 2024, just before Chipotle underwent a 50-for-1 stock split.
That split closely coincided with the stock's all-time high. Since then, rising inflation has hammered U.S. consumers. At the same time, Chipotle has faced higher rent, labor, and food costs, squeezing its margins. Such challenges are not unique to Chipotle, but they still have weighed on the company.
Additionally, two years ago, Brian Niccol was its CEO. After he departed for Starbucks in mid-2024, former COO Scott Boatwright took over as CEO. Even though Boatwright previously oversaw many of Niccol's initiatives, he has so far failed to develop an effective turnaround strategy for the chain.
Investors have little reason to expect dramatic improvements in the near term. For the quarter, analysts forecast 8.7% yearly revenue growth. That would be a sequential improvement from its 7.4% in Q1, but well below the 18.2% revenue growth it reported in the second quarter of 2024.
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Nonetheless, the stock price may now better reflect the challenges the company faces. After its sell-off, Chipotle's P/E ratio has fallen to 29, matching the S&P 500's average earnings multiple. Between 2018 and 2025, the company's P/E ratio rarely fell below 50.
Hence, while today's earnings multiple may seem like a bargain compared to past valuations, that lower P/E ratio appears to signal a loss of confidence in Chipotle's ability to recover.
Should investors buy Chipotle stock before July 29? Considering the state of Chipotle's business, investors have no obvious reasons to buy shares before July 29.
Most of its problems do not appear to be unique to the fast casual restaurant chain. Also, a slight improvement in revenue growth could provide a much-needed updraft to the stock price.
Unfortunately, the rapid growth that kept its valuation high and drove its stock price higher in past years has ended, and it is unclear if or when Chipotle could reignite it.
While its P/E ratio has fallen significantly, Chipotle's earnings multiple would have to fall further before one might reasonably call it a value stock. Given that it has neither a low valuation nor an obvious path back to significantly faster revenue growth, this consumer discretionary stock is probably not a buy at this time.
Chipotle Mexican Grill uzavřel o 3,8 % níže, což zaostalo za denním poklesem S&P 500 o 0,19 %. Investoři očekávají výsledky 29. července 2026; EPS má být 0,32 USD a tržby 3,32 miliardy USD.
In the latest trading session, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) closed at $33.13, marking a -3.8% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.19%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.59%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.05%.
Shares of the Mexican food chain witnessed a gain of 6% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Retail-Wholesale sector with its gain of 2.41%, and the S&P 500's gain of 0.55%.
The upcoming earnings release of Chipotle Mexican Grill will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on July 29, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $0.32, marking a 3.03% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $3.32 billion, indicating a 8.33% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.13 per share and a revenue of $12.92 billion, indicating changes of -3.42% and +8.34%, respectively, from the former year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill should also be noted by investors. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.22% decrease. Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Digging into valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 30.51. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 20.71.
It is also worth noting that CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.23. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. CMG's industry had an average PEG ratio of 2 as of yesterday's close.
The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 192, finds itself in the bottom 22% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
Chipotle otevřelo první restauraci v Mexiku v San Pedro Garza García ve spolupráci s Alsea. Firma plánuje další pobočky v Nuevo León a vstup do Mexico City v roce 2027.
Chipotle Brings Brand to MexicoChipotle’s first Mexican restaurant opened Thursday, July 16, in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, in partnership with Alsea, a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe. The location is the first to open under a development agreement the two companies announced in April 2025. Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional restaurants in Nuevo León later this year and expand into Mexico City in 2027.
“We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country’s culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence,” said Scott Boatwright, CEO of Chipotle. “Nuevo León is an ideal place to begin this journey, and with Alsea’s operational expertise and deep local market knowledge, we look forward to serving new guests and earning a place in Mexico’s vibrant dining culture.”
The Monterrey metropolitan area was selected as Chipotle’s entry point into Mexico due to its strong economy, growing population, and status as one of the country’s leading business and innovation hubs.
South Korea, Singapore Openings AheadThe Mexico entry adds to Chipotle’s growing international footprint, which includes more than 80 locations in Canada, 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany, alongside restaurants operated through partnerships in the Middle East and planned openings in South Korea and Singapore.
Chipotle currently operates more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new locations in 2026 as part of its “Recipe for Growth” strategy.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $41.95. Recent analyst moves include:
Citigroup: Buy (Lowers Target to $45.00) (July 13) Mizuho: Outperform (Raises Target to $41.00) (July 13) Chipotle Shares Edge Higher CMG Price Action: At the time of publication, Chipotle shares are trading 1.61% higher at $34.75, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Chipotle otevře 16. července první restauraci v Mexiku v San Pedro Garza García v Nuevo Leónu ve spolupráci s Alsea. Firma plánuje letos další pobočky v Nuevo Leónu a vstup do Mexico City v roce 2027.
Chipotle and Alsea plan additional openings in Nuevo León this year and expansion into Mexico City in 2027 , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced that the first Chipotle restaurant in Mexico will open on Thursday, July 16 in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, in partnership with Alsea (BMV: ALSEA*), a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe. The opening marks a significant milestone in Chipotle's international growth strategy and introduces the company's menu of freshly prepared, customizable burritos, bowls, salads, tacos and quesadillas to guests in Mexico.
Chipotle's first restaurant in Mexico is located in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area. Opening on July 16, the restaurant marks Chipotle's entry into Mexico in partnership with Alsea and represents a significant milestone in the company's international growth strategy.
The Nuevo León restaurant will serve Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. This restaurant is the first location to open under the development agreement Chipotle and Alsea announced in April 2025. Building on this market entry, Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional restaurants in Nuevo León later this year and expand into Mexico City in 2027.
"We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country's culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence," said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer of Chipotle. "Our research has reinforced our belief that there is strong interest in high-quality, freshly prepared food served with the customization and convenience that Chipotle offers. Nuevo León is an ideal place to begin this journey, and with Alsea's operational expertise and deep local market knowledge, we look forward to serving new guests and earning a place in Mexico's vibrant dining culture."
"We've spent years evaluating opportunities to bring Chipotle to Mexico, and this week's opening reinforces our confidence in the market," said Nate Lawton, Chief Business Development Officer of Chipotle. "Our initial focus is on opening one great restaurant and learning alongside our guests and our partners at Alsea. This first location will serve as an important proof-of-concept, giving us the opportunity to better understand local consumer preferences as we thoughtfully grow in Mexico."
The new restaurant features Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with the same chef-led standards and classic cooking techniques that have shaped the brand since its founding. The company sources many of its ingredients from suppliers throughout the region and remains committed to serving real food made with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives.
The Monterrey metropolitan area was selected as Chipotle's first location in Mexico due to its strong economy, growing population, and status as one of the country's leading business and innovation hubs. The restaurant represents the first step in Chipotle and Alsea's broader expansion strategy as the companies evaluate opportunities across Mexico's largest metropolitan markets.
"Bringing Chipotle to Mexico is an important step in our growth and portfolio diversification strategy. We are introducing an iconic brand with a differentiated value proposition that has resonated with millions of guests around the world, and we are confident it will be warmly welcomed by Mexican consumers. This week's opening reflects our confidence in Mexico's growth potential and our commitment to continuing to drive investment, job creation, and economic development in the communities where we operate," said Christian Gurría, Chief Executive Officer of Alsea.
Chipotle's Growing International Footprint
Chipotle signed its first international development agreement in July 2023 with Alshaya Group to open restaurants in the Middle East. Alshaya Group currently operates 15 restaurants across the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. In September 2025, Chipotle announced a joint venture with SPC Group, a leading South Korean food and bakery company, to expand the brand into Asia for the first time, with plans to open its first restaurant in South Korea later this year and in Singapore early next year.
Chipotle's existing international portfolio of owned and operated restaurants includes more than 80 locations in Canada, 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany. The company currently operates more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026 as it continues to execute its "Recipe for Growth" strategy, including a target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada.
Chipotle's business development group, led by Chief Business Development Officer Nate Lawton, continues to evaluate strategic opportunities to accelerate the company's global growth through partnerships, joint ventures, and development agreements. Information on submitting a proposal can be found at https://ir.chipotle.com/contact-us.
About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,100 restaurants as of March 31, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. With over 135,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit chipotle.com.
About Alsea
Alsea is the leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe of global brands in the quick service, coffee shop and fast casual dining segments. It has a diversified portfolio, with brands such as Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, P.F. Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Archies, Foster's Hollywood, Gino's and Chipotle. The company operates more than 4,800 units in Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Uruguay and Paraguay. Alsea's business model includes support for its brands through a Shared Services Center that provides all the Administrative and Development Processes, as well as the Supply Chain.
For more information please visit: www.alsea.net
*Alsea shares are traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ALSEA
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the timing of opening the first and additional future Chipotle restaurants in Mexico, Chipotle's prospects for business in Mexico, the Middle East and Asia, Chipotle's plans to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026, and its "Recipe for Growth," including its target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. We use words such as "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "should," "may," "are confident" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.
UBS čeká, že Chipotle ve 2. čtvrtletí vykáže růst tržeb ve stejných prodejnách o 1,2 % a ve druhé polovině roku zrychlí díky cenám, novinkám v menu a provozním zlepšením.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is expected to report second quarter same-store sales roughly in line with Wall Street expectations, while momentum could improve in the second half of 2026 as pricing actions, menu innovation and operational initiatives begin to offset ongoing macroeconomic pressures, according to a preview note from UBS.
Ahead of Chipotle's July 29 earnings report, UBS said it expects second-quarter same-store sales growth of 1.2%, close to the consensus estimate of 1.3%.
The firm expects sales trends to have accelerated from the first quarter, supported by menu innovations including Cilantro Lime Sauce and Chipotle Honey Chicken, marketing initiatives such as the Summer of Extras campaign, and a potential boost from the FIFA World Cup.
The analysts said investor focus will likely be on third-quarter sales trends, upcoming limited-time offers, marketing initiatives, catering expansion, operational improvements and efforts to strengthen the company's value proposition.
While UBS expects macroeconomic headwinds to persist, particularly among consumers earning less than $100,000 annually, younger consumers and Hispanic consumers, it believes Chipotle is positioned for stronger same-store sales and transaction growth in the second half of the year.
The firm cited additional limited-time menu offerings, an enhanced marketing strategy, digital initiatives, the April relaunch of Chipotle Rewards and broader catering rollout expected by the fourth quarter as potential growth drivers. UBS also noted the company's high-efficiency equipment package could generate meaningful improvements in comparable sales through operational gains.
UBS expects Chipotle's pricing strategy to remain effective, with full-year pricing likely to finish toward the upper end of the company's 1% to 2% target range. The firm forecasts 2026 same-store sales growth of 1.4%.
On profitability, UBS models second-quarter restaurant-level margins of 25%, down about 230 basis points from a year earlier due primarily to higher beef, dairy and avocado costs. However, it expects margins to improve during the second half of 2026 as food inflation eases and pricing actions increasingly offset cost pressures.
UBS forecasts second-quarter earnings per share of $0.32 and full-year 2026 earnings per share of $1.15.
The firm maintained a $45 price target, saying a return to stronger transaction and sales momentum could provide upside for the shares. This implies upside from current levels of about $35.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1.62%) issued a 50-for-1 split on June 26, 2024, making its then roughly $3,000 share price more affordable. But that almost marked the peak. The stock is currently down 53% from its all-time high.
It wasn't the split, but rather weakening sales performance in the business itself that followed the departure of former CEO Brian Niccol. Here are three reasons Chipotle has fallen from its pedestal.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
1. Slowing revenue growth Since 2024, Chipotle's revenue growth has declined amid inflationary costs and weak comparable sales. When the company issued its stock split, revenue was up 18% year over year in Q2 2024. Comp sales grew 11%, with transaction growth up 8.7%.
In May 2025, there was a noticeable slowdown in underlying business trends amid weakening consumer sentiment. For the full year, revenue grew just 5% over 2024, with comp sales declining by 1.7%.
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2. Higher costs pressured margins As sales weakened, Chipotle faced higher costs for rent, labor, and food ingredients. As a result, restaurant-level margin fell from 26.7% in 2024 to 25.4% in 2025. The company is still struggling to offset higher costs, with restaurant-level margins down to 23.7% in the first quarter of 2026.
Chipotle might have compounded this problem by lowering prices for some items. It prioritized keeping traffic up at the expense of its bottom line. Quarterly earnings peaked at $0.33 in Q2 2024. In Q1 2026, the company reported a 17% year-over-year decrease in earnings, falling to $0.23.
3. Uncertainty from leadership change Niccol took the CEO job at Starbucks in September 2024. While Chipotle's weakening performance is most correlated with the broader weakness in consumer spending, a change in CEO always creates uncertainty about the future, which can impact a company's valuation.
There's a reason Starbucks chose Niccol to lead its turnaround. Niccol proved to be a superb business operator at Chipotle. Under his leadership from 2018 through the third quarter of 2024, Chipotle more than doubled its revenue and doubled its operating profit margin. From the end of 2014 through Q3 2024, the stock returned 567%.
After the recent collapse, Chipotle stock is now trading at its lowest price-to-earnings ratio in years. It could be a great time to buy, but time will tell whether the new CEO, Scott Boatwright, is as successful as Niccol. The latest results showed improvement in top-line growth. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year, with comp sales up 0.5%.
Still, until costs get under control and earnings improve, the stock will likely remain discounted. Investors should watch for signs that food inflation is waning, as that would mark a catalyst for stronger margins and earnings.
