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Analysts on Wall Street project that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 3% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $3.32 billion, increasing 8.4% from the same quarter last year.

Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.

Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors typically rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to gauge how the business may have fared during the quarter, examining analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics often helps gain a deeper insight.

In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain Chipotle metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.

Analysts expect 'Revenue- Food and beverage' to come in at $3.31 billion. The estimate points to a change of +8.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- Delivery service' will reach $16.02 million. The estimate suggests a change of +2.5% year over year.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Company-operated restaurants at end of period' reaching 4,160 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3,839 .

Analysts forecast 'Company-operated restaurants opened' to reach 75 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 61 in the same quarter last year.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Company-operated restaurants at beginning of period' will reach 4,090 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 3,781 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Average restaurant sales - TTM' at $3.09 million. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $3.14 million in the same quarter last year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Chipotle here>>>

Chipotle shares have witnessed a change of -0.8% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), CMG is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

In the latest trading session, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) closed at $33.13, marking a -3.8% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.19%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.59%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.05%.

Shares of the Mexican food chain witnessed a gain of 6% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Retail-Wholesale sector with its gain of 2.41%, and the S&P 500's gain of 0.55%.

The upcoming earnings release of Chipotle Mexican Grill will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on July 29, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $0.32, marking a 3.03% fall compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $3.32 billion, indicating a 8.33% growth compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.

In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.13 per share and a revenue of $12.92 billion, indicating changes of -3.42% and +8.34%, respectively, from the former year.

Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill should also be noted by investors. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 0.22% decrease. Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Digging into valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 30.51. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 20.71.

It is also worth noting that CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.23. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. CMG's industry had an average PEG ratio of 2 as of yesterday's close.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 192, finds itself in the bottom 22% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.

Chipotle and Alsea plan additional openings in Nuevo León this year and expansion into Mexico City in 2027 , /PRNewswire/ -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) today announced that the first Chipotle restaurant in Mexico will open on Thursday, July 16 in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, in partnership with Alsea (BMV: ALSEA*), a leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe. The opening marks a significant milestone in Chipotle's international growth strategy and introduces the company's menu of freshly prepared, customizable burritos, bowls, salads, tacos and quesadillas to guests in Mexico.

Chipotle's first restaurant in Mexico is located in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area. Opening on July 16, the restaurant marks Chipotle's entry into Mexico in partnership with Alsea and represents a significant milestone in the company's international growth strategy.

The Nuevo León restaurant will serve Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. This restaurant is the first location to open under the development agreement Chipotle and Alsea announced in April 2025. Building on this market entry, Chipotle and Alsea plan to open additional restaurants in Nuevo León later this year and expand into Mexico City in 2027.

"We are entering Mexico with deep respect for the country's culinary heritage and a commitment to delivering the Chipotle experience with excellence," said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer of Chipotle. "Our research has reinforced our belief that there is strong interest in high-quality, freshly prepared food served with the customization and convenience that Chipotle offers. Nuevo León is an ideal place to begin this journey, and with Alsea's operational expertise and deep local market knowledge, we look forward to serving new guests and earning a place in Mexico's vibrant dining culture."

"We've spent years evaluating opportunities to bring Chipotle to Mexico, and this week's opening reinforces our confidence in the market," said Nate Lawton, Chief Business Development Officer of Chipotle. "Our initial focus is on opening one great restaurant and learning alongside our guests and our partners at Alsea. This first location will serve as an important proof-of-concept, giving us the opportunity to better understand local consumer preferences as we thoughtfully grow in Mexico."

The new restaurant features Chipotle's signature menu prepared fresh throughout the day with the same chef-led standards and classic cooking techniques that have shaped the brand since its founding. The company sources many of its ingredients from suppliers throughout the region and remains committed to serving real food made with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives. 

The Monterrey metropolitan area was selected as Chipotle's first location in Mexico due to its strong economy, growing population, and status as one of the country's leading business and innovation hubs. The restaurant represents the first step in Chipotle and Alsea's broader expansion strategy as the companies evaluate opportunities across Mexico's largest metropolitan markets.

"Bringing Chipotle to Mexico is an important step in our growth and portfolio diversification strategy. We are introducing an iconic brand with a differentiated value proposition that has resonated with millions of guests around the world, and we are confident it will be warmly welcomed by Mexican consumers. This week's opening reflects our confidence in Mexico's growth potential and our commitment to continuing to drive investment, job creation, and economic development in the communities where we operate," said Christian Gurría, Chief Executive Officer of Alsea.

Chipotle's Growing International Footprint 
Chipotle signed its first international development agreement in July 2023 with Alshaya Group to open restaurants in the Middle East. Alshaya Group currently operates 15 restaurants across the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. In September 2025, Chipotle announced a joint venture with SPC Group, a leading South Korean food and bakery company, to expand the brand into Asia for the first time, with plans to open its first restaurant in South Korea later this year and in Singapore early next year.

Chipotle's existing international portfolio of owned and operated restaurants includes more than 80 locations in Canada, 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany. The company currently operates more than 4,100 restaurants worldwide and expects to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026 as it continues to execute its "Recipe for Growth" strategy, including a target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada.

Chipotle's business development group, led by Chief Business Development Officer Nate Lawton, continues to evaluate strategic opportunities to accelerate the company's global growth through partnerships, joint ventures, and development agreements. Information on submitting a proposal can be found at https://ir.chipotle.com/contact-us.

About Chipotle
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. There are over 4,100 restaurants as of March 31, 2026, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Middle East and it is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. With over 135,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. For more information or to place an order online, visit chipotle.com.

About Alsea
Alsea is the leading restaurant operator in Latin America and Europe of global brands in the quick service, coffee shop and fast casual dining segments. It has a diversified portfolio, with brands such as Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, P.F. Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Archies, Foster's Hollywood, Gino's and Chipotle. The company operates more than 4,800 units in Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Uruguay and Paraguay. Alsea's business model includes support for its brands through a Shared Services Center that provides all the Administrative and Development Processes, as well as the Supply Chain.

For more information please visit: www.alsea.net

*Alsea shares are traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ALSEA

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the timing of opening the first and additional future Chipotle restaurants in Mexico, Chipotle's prospects for business in Mexico, the Middle East and Asia, Chipotle's plans to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants in 2026, and its "Recipe for Growth," including its target of operating 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. We use words such as "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "should," "may," "are confident" and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this press release are based on currently available operating, financial and competitive information, available to us as of the date of this release and we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the statements, including the risks described from time to time in our SEC reports, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.chipotle.com.

SOURCE Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1.62%) issued a 50-for-1 split on June 26, 2024, making its then roughly $3,000 share price more affordable. But that almost marked the peak. The stock is currently down 53% from its all-time high.

It wasn't the split, but rather weakening sales performance in the business itself that followed the departure of former CEO Brian Niccol. Here are three reasons Chipotle has fallen from its pedestal.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

1. Slowing revenue growth Since 2024, Chipotle's revenue growth has declined amid inflationary costs and weak comparable sales. When the company issued its stock split, revenue was up 18% year over year in Q2 2024. Comp sales grew 11%, with transaction growth up 8.7%.

In May 2025, there was a noticeable slowdown in underlying business trends amid weakening consumer sentiment. For the full year, revenue grew just 5% over 2024, with comp sales declining by 1.7%.

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2. Higher costs pressured margins As sales weakened, Chipotle faced higher costs for rent, labor, and food ingredients. As a result, restaurant-level margin fell from 26.7% in 2024 to 25.4% in 2025. The company is still struggling to offset higher costs, with restaurant-level margins down to 23.7% in the first quarter of 2026.

Chipotle might have compounded this problem by lowering prices for some items. It prioritized keeping traffic up at the expense of its bottom line. Quarterly earnings peaked at $0.33 in Q2 2024. In Q1 2026, the company reported a 17% year-over-year decrease in earnings, falling to $0.23.

3. Uncertainty from leadership change Niccol took the CEO job at Starbucks in September 2024. While Chipotle's weakening performance is most correlated with the broader weakness in consumer spending, a change in CEO always creates uncertainty about the future, which can impact a company's valuation.

There's a reason Starbucks chose Niccol to lead its turnaround. Niccol proved to be a superb business operator at Chipotle. Under his leadership from 2018 through the third quarter of 2024, Chipotle more than doubled its revenue and doubled its operating profit margin. From the end of 2014 through Q3 2024, the stock returned 567%.

After the recent collapse, Chipotle stock is now trading at its lowest price-to-earnings ratio in years. It could be a great time to buy, but time will tell whether the new CEO, Scott Boatwright, is as successful as Niccol. The latest results showed improvement in top-line growth. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year, with comp sales up 0.5%.

Still, until costs get under control and earnings improve, the stock will likely remain discounted. Investors should watch for signs that food inflation is waning, as that would mark a catalyst for stronger margins and earnings.