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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 18.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

CF Industries’ Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Nitrogen PricingCF Industries reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.73 per share, up 99.6% from $2.37 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.65 by 16.3%. 

Net sales increased 17.6% year over year to $2.22 billion but missed the consensus estimate of $2.43 billion by 8.7%. Higher average selling prices across all segments supported growth, while total sales volume declined 15.3% to 4.25 million tons. 

Segmental Review Ammonia segment net sales rose 19.3% year over year to $586 million. Adjusted gross margin increased to $288 million from $188 million. An increase in the average selling price more than offset a decline in sales volume. Higher prices supported profitability, while lower supply availability and maintenance costs remained headwinds. 

Granular Urea segment net sales climbed 38.8% to $759 million. Adjusted gross margin advanced to $551 million from $351 million. Sales volume and the average selling price rose. Greater product availability and a production mix favoring granular urea supported volumes, while stronger pricing lifted margins despite higher natural gas costs. 

UAN segment net sales edged up 0.5% to $613 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $403 million from $342 million. A rise in the average selling price offset a reduction in sales volume. Lower global demand and a production mix favoring granular urea pressured volumes, while higher freight, distribution and natural gas costs partly offset the pricing benefit. 

AN segment’s net sales decreased 39.3% to $71 million. The segment recorded an adjusted gross loss of $1 million compared with an adjusted gross margin of $35 million a year earlier. Sales volume plunged because of lost production at the Yazoo City Complex, outweighing an increase in the average selling price. Higher purchased ammonia costs and outage-related expenses also pressured results. 

Financials As of June 30, 2026, CF Industries had cash and cash equivalents of $2.48 billion. Long-term debt was $3.22 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $878 million in the second quarter. CF Industries repurchased 2 million shares for $230 million during the quarter. The company bought back 2.2 million shares for $245 million in the first half, leaving roughly $1.48 billion under its current authorization. 

Outlook CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of approximately 9.5 million tons, including the effect of the ongoing Yazoo City outage. Management expects ammonia, AN solution, nitric acid, UAN solution and urea liquor production at the complex to resume during the first half of 2027. The company projects 2026 capital expenditures of about $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis. 

Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027. Lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support demand in India, Southeast Asia, Brazil and other import markets. North American nitrogen demand for the 2027 growing season is also expected to remain firm. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -20% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresAt this time, CF has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerCF belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry. Another stock from the same industry, Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) , has gained 8.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.

Mosaic reported revenues of $2.82 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6%. EPS of $0.13 for the same period compares with $0.51 a year ago.

Mosaic is expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -91.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -64.2%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Mosaic. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

Key Takeaways CF Industries and partners have begun construction of the $3.7B Blue Point One low-carbon ammonia plant.Blue Point One is set for 1.4M metric tons of annual capacity and is expected to start production in 2029.The plant is designed to capture and permanently sequester about 98% of carbon dioxide from production. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) , JERA Co. and Mitsui & Co. have begun the construction of Blue Point One, a $3.7 billion low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana. The project is expected to strengthen CF’s position in the evolving low-carbon ammonia market by serving both traditional agricultural customers and emerging energy applications.

Blue Point One will have an annual production capacity of 1.4 million metric tons, making it the world’s largest low-carbon ammonia plant upon completion. The facility is expected to begin production in 2029. The project brings together the world’s largest producer of ammonia and Japan's largest energy company, JERA Co., with a pioneering investment and trading company, Mitsui & Co.

The project will use autothermal reforming technology and is designed to capture and permanently sequester approximately 98% of the carbon dioxide generated during production. This is expected to give the facility one of the lowest environmental footprints among large-scale ammonia plants.

CF Industries owns a 40% stake in the joint venture, with JERA holding 35% and Mitsui owning 25%. CF Industries will also invest an additional $550 million in shared infrastructure to support future ammonia production and fertilizer upgrades.

The development is further supported by Linde’s investment of more than $400 million in an on-site air-separation unit, while a joint venture between 1PointFive and Enbridge will transport and permanently sequester the captured carbon dioxide.

CF shares have gained 43.9% over the past year against the industry’s 43.5% decline.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CF’s Zacks Rank & Key PicksCF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NOPMF - Free Report) , Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS - Free Report) and Avient Corporation (AVNT - Free Report) .

While NOPMF currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), CRS and AVNT carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOPMF’s 2026 earnings is pinned at $1.4 per share, indicating a 185.71% year-over-year increase. NOPMF’sshares have gained 91.6% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’ fiscal 2027 earnings is pegged at $12.92 per share, indicating a rise of 20.07% year over year. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.39%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pinned at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.48% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.4%. AVNT’s shares have gained 20.3% over the past year.

Not Just Oil: 3 Fertilizer Stocks Boosted by Hormuz ClosureCF Industries NYSE: CF reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, as tight global nitrogen supply-demand conditions and strong operating performance supported results.

Net earnings attributable to common stockholders totaled $1.3 billion, or $8.71 per diluted share, for the first half, including $727 million, or $4.73 per diluted share, in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Scribner said during the company’s earnings call.

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Top 3 Bank Stocks to Watch as Fed Rate Cuts LoomPresident and CEO Chris Bohn said the company operated its available ammonia capacity at nearly 98% during the first half. He also highlighted a trailing 12-month incident rate of 0.16 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, which he said was below industry averages.

Supply Constraints Support Nitrogen Market Chief Commercial Officer Bert Frost said global nitrogen prices rose during the first half as an already-tight market was further constrained by supply disruptions associated with the conflict with Iran. While some customers in regions with later application seasons deferred purchases amid higher prices, North American agricultural demand remained strong through most of the period, particularly for ammonia and urea.

Regional Bank Buybacks: 5 Institutions Making Big MovesCF Industries shifted production toward urea from UAN during the first half, Frost said, while also delivering its second-highest first-half diesel exhaust fluid, or DEF, volumes. DEF was the company’s highest-margin product during the period.

Purchasing slowed in North America during June as the nitrogen distribution channel reduced inventories to low levels. However, Frost said those inventory positions supported strong participation in the company’s UAN and ammonia fill programs in July. CF Industries built a UAN order book extending into November and expects a strong fall ammonia season, he said.

The company expects the global nitrogen market to remain tight into 2027. Frost cited higher capital costs, permanent capacity closures, limited new capacity additions, geopolitical uncertainty, elevated logistics and insurance costs, and high liquefied natural gas prices affecting marginal producers.

China is expected to export urea volumes similar to last year, according to Frost. While those exports are needed to meet global demand, he said they are not expected to materially loosen market conditions. CF Industries also expects purchasing activity to recover in deferred markets, including Brazil and India, while North American demand remains firm through upcoming application seasons.

Higher Construction Costs Raise Mid-Cycle Outlook Management raised its baseline mid-cycle outlook, projecting approximately $2.9 billion in EBITDA and $1.7 billion in free cash flow. Scribner said the revised outlook reflects higher construction costs for new nitrogen capacity in regions with low-cost natural gas, which have narrowed the historic cost advantage those locations held over North American projects.

During the question-and-answer session, Bohn said the company’s assumed NOLA urea price increased to $385 per short ton from $355 per short ton. Of the $30 increase, he estimated that roughly $10 could be linked to structural changes associated with geopolitical disruptions, including higher freight, insurance and risk-related costs. The remainder principally reflects higher capital costs, he said.

Scribner said the company’s analysis assumes a 1.3 million- to 1.4 million-ton capacity site with capital spending of approximately $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion, natural gas costs of $3.50, and a 10% to 12% financial return.

By 2030, CF Industries expects initiatives already underway to lift mid-cycle EBITDA to approximately $3.3 billion. Scribner said that expected $400 million increase includes about $300 million from the Blue Point project and $100 million from additional carbon-capture benefits at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City.

Blue Point and Yazoo City Projects Advance Bohn said Blue Point has received all necessary construction permits, nearly all long-lead equipment has been ordered, and module fabrication is expected to begin later this year. Construction is expected to begin in August, accelerating the company’s capital-expenditure pace.

CF Industries expects 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion, with the company’s share totaling about $950 million. Bohn said roughly 50% of Blue Point capital expenditures are fixed through engineering, module-yard work and certain lump-sum turnkey infrastructure contracts.

At Yazoo City, the company now expects operations to resume during the first half of 2027, rather than late 2026. Bohn said the revised schedule primarily reflects longer procurement timelines for electrical equipment.

The site will no longer produce prilled ammonium nitrate. Instead, it will produce ammonia, ammonium nitrate solution and DEF, changes management said are intended to improve the complex’s operational and logistics flexibility. Scribner said CF Industries has recorded nearly $50 million in equipment impairments connected with Yazoo City and has received about $75 million in insurance recoveries to date, including property damage and business interruption proceeds.

Cash Flow, Dividend and Share Repurchases Trailing 12-month net cash from operations was approximately $3 billion and free cash flow was approximately $1.8 billion, Scribner said. Over that period, CF Industries returned nearly $1.3 billion to shareholders, including $958 million used to repurchase 10.6 million shares and $314 million in dividend payments.

In July, the board increased the quarterly dividend 20% to $0.60 per share. Since the start of 2021, shares outstanding have declined 29%, while the company’s dividend has doubled, Scribner said.

Bohn said CF Industries remains committed to share repurchases and views its shares as undervalued. Management said its capital-allocation priorities remain strategic growth investments, share repurchases and dividends.

The company also said its low-carbon ammonia sales program continued to gain momentum. About 10% of ammonia sales volume in the first half was low carbon and earned an average premium of more than $20 per ton, according to Frost.

About CF Industries (NYSE:CF)CF Industries Holdings, Inc is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products for agricultural and industrial customers. The company specializes in the production of ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, which serve as key inputs for fertilizer blends, industrial chemicals and other downstream applications.

Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, CF Industries operates production facilities and distribution terminals across North America and the United Kingdom.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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Key Takeaways CF reports Q2 results on Aug. 5 after beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters.CF is expected to post higher Q2 sales as strong nitrogen demand and pricing support performance.CF may face pressure from higher natural gas costs despite expected gains in sales volumes and pricing. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on Aug. 5.

The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters at an average of 11.4%.  The benefits of healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices are expected to reflect on its second quarter performance.

CF’s shares have gained 27.6% in a year, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 47.9% decline.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do CF’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s second-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $2,434.7 million, calling for an increase of 28.8% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for CF StockCF Industries is expected to have benefited from strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers fueled by robust agricultural needs. Global nitrogen requirements are expected to have remained strong in the June quarter due to healthy industrial demand and farmer economics.

Demand in North America is being fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. These two countries are expected to remain significant importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic requirements.

CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.

Higher demand is expected to have driven the company’s sales volumes in the second quarter. Our estimate for total sales volumes (thousand tons) is 5,740 for the second quarter, indicating a 14.3% year-over-year rise.

Higher nitrogen prices are also likely to have supported the company’s performance in the second quarter. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. The favorable pricing trends are expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

CF is expected to have faced headwinds from higher costs stemming from an uptick in natural gas prices. Higher prices of natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, have resulted in increased production costs for CF. It saw higher natural gas costs in the first quarter. The average cost of natural gas increased to $4.57 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) from $3.68 per MMBtu a year ago, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability.

What Our Model Unveils for CF StockOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CF this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for CF is -0.18%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is currently pegged at $5.65. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Avient Corporation (AVNT - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 6, has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AVNT’s earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at 89 cents.

Materion Corporation (MTRN - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Aug. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +5.39% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for MTRN’s second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.55.

Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +2.21%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB's earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $3.35. ALB currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Key Takeaways CF approved a 20% higher quarterly dividend of 60 cents per share, payable on Aug. 31, 2026. CF benefits from strong nitrogen demand, favorable pricing and a tight 2026 global market. CF returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks, backed by robust FCF. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) recently announced that its board has approved a quarterly cash dividend of 60 cents per share, representing a 20% increase from its previous quarterly dividend. The dividend will be paid on Aug. 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Aug. 14, 2026. 

The higher dividend underscores management's confidence in the company's financial strength, cash flow generation and long-term earnings outlook. It also enhances shareholder returns and could improve the stock's attractiveness to income-oriented investors while signaling disciplined capital allocation. 

CF Industries is benefiting from strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers driven by healthy agricultural activity and improving industrial demand. Favorable farm economics and higher corn plantings in the United States are supporting nitrogen consumption, while demand in Brazil is expected to remain strong on increased corn acreage. In India, low inventories, reduced domestic production and supply disruptions due to the Iran war are expected to lift urea imports to 10-12 million metric tons in 2026, per CF’s estimates. 

Per CF, the global nitrogen market is expected to remain tight in 2026 as strong demand is met with constrained supply. Geopolitical disruptions, limited natural gas availability and the Middle East conflict have tightened the global supply-demand balance. These market conditions helped drive a 19% year-over-year increase in first-quarter net sales through higher selling prices, and CF Industries is expected to continue benefiting from favorable nitrogen pricing. 

CF Industries continues to enhance shareholder returns through strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. The company generated $1.79 billion in free cash flow in 2025, up 24% year over year, while net cash from operating activities increased 21% to $2.75 billion. It ended the first quarter with about $2 billion in cash, and its strong free cash flow conversion highlights the efficiency of its operations. 

The company returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, including $1.34 billion used to buy back 16.6 million shares. Since launching its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, it has repurchased 3.6 million shares for about $293 million. 

Shares of CF are up 26.1% in the past year compared with the industry’s 51.5% decline.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CF’s Zacks Rank & Other Key PicksCF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). 

Other top-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space include CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW - Free Report) , Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR - Free Report)  and Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) . CSW, IDR and SCCO carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSW’s current-year earnings stands at $12.52 per share, implying a 20.6% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 3.8%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IDR’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.52 per share, implying a 33.3% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 68.7%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SCCO’s current-year earnings is pegged at $7.8 per share, indicating a 48.9% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 9.1%.