Right now, what Bitcoin needs is a catalyst to keep HODL sentiment intact.
As AMBCrypto recently reported, Bitcoin was trading near $86,200, putting whales at roughly 39% unrealized profit and sharks at nearly 28% based on their respective cost basis. With BTC now down to $83k, the risk of profit-taking and a new wave of selling pressure is clearly back.
In this situation, Bitcoin needs a fresh catalyst to give HOLDers a reason to stay put instead of locking profits.
This becomes even more important as Bitcoin’s latest Fear & Greed reading adds another layer to the setup. As the chart below shows, BTC closed the last session with the index at 73, reclaiming this level for the first time since the 1st of October.
However, the index has since eased to 71. While it is still in the Greed zone, the pullback could be an early sign of sentiment starting to cool.
Source: Alternative.me Taken together, the growing profit stack and the volatile Fear & Greed Index suggest that Bitcoin’s bullish setup is starting to look shaky. With whales and sharks sitting on sizable unrealized gains, a further shift in sentiment could lead to profit-taking and hence selling pressure.
Why are Bitcoin whales adding to holdings? Against that backdrop, Santiment reported continued accumulation among wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC.
Source: Santiment These wallets added 86,702 BTC over three weeks, lifting their combined holdings to the highest level since the 23rd of April. The increase suggested that larger holders continued building exposure despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness.
However, accumulation alone could not establish how long they intended to hold. If those wallets later sold, their larger balances could increase the supply entering the market.
For now, that remained a conditional risk rather than evidence that accumulation itself had turned bearish. A fresh catalyst could strengthen holders’ willingness to maintain their Bitcoin exposure through the pullback.
China’s crypto pivot could test Bitcoin’s HODL strength Joseph Chee’s comments offered one potential narrative for investors to watch.
The former UBS Asia investment banking chief and Solana Company CEO discussed China potentially allowing greater crypto activity. He pointed to Hong Kong as a testing ground.
In his CNBC interview, Chee suggested that reopening access could trigger another crypto supercycle. His comments described a possibility, rather than an announced policy change.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data showed more than $3.3 billion worth of BTC leaving Binance over approximately two weeks. Weekly Outflows also reached their highest levels since 2023.
Source: CryptoQuant If this trend continues, China’s potential crypto pivot could give Bitcoin holders another reason to stay put.
The logic is straightforward: Whale accumulation and exchange outflows both point to the same thing: more BTC is moving into long-term hands. So, if the supercycle narrative continues to gain traction, the 39% and 28% unrealized profit levels could have even more room to expand, thus encouraging these investors to avoid selling into the current market weakness and HODL for bigger gains.
Thus, the recent dip in Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index could therefore be temporary, as on-chain signals continue to support HODLing through the current market FUD.
Final Summary Bitcoin sentiment is cooling, but whales and long-term holders are still accumulating. China’s crypto pivot could boost the supercycle narrative and encourage holders to keep HODLing.
Vláda USA během několika hodin převedla na Coinbase Prime zabavená kryptoaktiva v hodnotě zhruba 565,87 milionu USD, včetně BTC z hackerského útoku na Bitfinex a USDT souvisejících s FTX/Alameda.
Blockchain analytics platform Onchain Lens said that the U.S. government has moved around $565.87 million in seized crypto to Coinbase Prime over a few hours.
Most recently, the government moved 94.15 million Tether (USDT), which Onchain Lens described as coming from seized funds related to bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and its trading arm Alameda Research.
This comes after a series of other transactions that added up to about $471.7 million.
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The first batch contained 3,974 Bitcoin (BTC), about $329.95 million worth. The blockchain analytics platform described it as related to the infamous Bitfinex hack.
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Another transaction contained 657.92 BTC, $54.55 million worth, 750.19 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), $62.34 million worth, and 24.89 million USDT, $24.88 million worth.
According to Onchain Lens, all of these coins also come from seized FTX/Alameda-related assets.
Notably, some of the crypto went through newly minted addresses before eventually landing on Coinbase Prime.
What are these seized assets?The biggest part of these transfers is Bitcoin related to the Bitfinex hack that happened in 2016.
In August 2016, about 119,754 BTC were stolen from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex. U.S. authorities later recovered over 94,000 BTC after getting access to the private keys of hacker Ilya Lichtenstein. The seizure was worth around $3.6 billion in 2022. Later, Lichtenstein pleaded guilty to a money laundering conspiracy charge.
Moving to Coinbase Prime doesn't necessarily mean the assets are about to be sold soon. In 2024, Coinbase Prime was picked by the U.S. Marshals Service to offer custody and advanced trading for its big-cap digital assets portfolio. Sometimes, government transfers to Coinbase Prime may be related to management and custody.
The U.S. government didn't make public the intended purpose of these particular transactions.
HashKey Cloud plánuje ve spolupráci s Babylon a Aave v4 institucionální úvěry kryté nativním Bitcoinem bez wrapování či centralizovaného správce; datum spuštění nebylo zveřejněno.
At 14:35 UTC on October 7, 2026, Babylon announced that HashKey Cloud would integrate its Trustless Bitcoin Vaults, or TBV, for institutional clients using Aave v4. The companies have not set a public launch date. Their joint announcement says further timing and partnership details will arrive in the coming months.
The planned service would let a HashKey client borrow against Bitcoin that remains on the Bitcoin network. Babylon says the design avoids wrapping the asset, sending it through a bridge or placing it with a centralized intermediary. Aave v4 supplies the lending market, while HashKey Cloud provides the institutional access and operational role described by the partners.
HashKey clients would be able to borrow stablecoins and other supported assets against that collateral. The announcement also says clients could deploy borrowed stablecoins into yield strategies. It does not name the strategies, borrowing limits, collateral parameters, fees or jurisdictions that HashKey will support.
How the collateral path works Babylon’s technical overview describes a five-stage process. A depositor first locks native Bitcoin in a dedicated unspent transaction output on the Bitcoin network. Participants construct and pre-sign a transaction graph while the deposit receives confirmations. That graph fixes the permitted paths by which the Bitcoin can later be spent.
After setup, a self-custodial BTCVault is activated on Ethereum. Aave v4 can then recognize the locked Bitcoin as collateral. The borrower takes a supported asset from Aave at a market-based variable rate. Babylon’s product page lists $USDC, $USDT and $WBTC as examples of assets that may be borrowed, though the HashKey announcement does not say which assets its service will expose.
Closing the position requires repayment of the outstanding debt and accrued interest before the user requests a withdrawal. The same overview says a position is liquidated only after it falls below the liquidation threshold and that partial liquidation is supported. The HashKey release does not provide the threshold or other market parameters, so clients cannot yet calculate a position’s liquidation buffer from the announcement.
A withdrawal then enters a challenge process on Bitcoin. If no valid challenge is raised, the Bitcoin returns to the address nominated by the user. Babylon says an Ethereum event authorizes redemption, a zero-knowledge proof demonstrates that the event occurred, and the challenge mechanism determines whether the claim may proceed. The process is designed to avoid approval from a custodian, wrapped-asset issuer or signer committee.
This architecture separates the location of the collateral from the location of the loan. The Bitcoin remains locked in a Bitcoin UTXO, while Ethereum and Aave account for the collateral and debt position. It also means the borrower depends on the vault transaction graph, proof system, oracle and Aave market operating as intended.
What changes for HashKey clients HashKey Cloud already provides staking and yield infrastructure under HashKey Holding Limited. The company says it has provided node validation services since 2018 across public chains and Layer 2 networks. The integration adds a proposed borrowing route to that institutional infrastructure.
Fisher Yu, a Babylon co-founder, said HashKey Cloud would take a “core operational role in TBV” and bring native Bitcoin credit to institutional clients in Asia. He also said the self-custodial design lets regulated institutions retain title to their Bitcoin while using it as collateral. Leo Li, CEO of HashKey OnChain, described the goal as turning native Bitcoin into an asset that can be borrowed against and then deploying the proceeds.
For a client, the practical change is the ability to seek stablecoin liquidity without first selling Bitcoin or converting it into a wrapped representation. That removes an issuer and redemption process from the route. It does not remove lending risk. Babylon’s own disclosure says users remain exposed to smart-contract and implementation risk, price-oracle risk, and the risk profile of the lending application they choose.
The cost is also not limited to Aave’s variable borrowing rate. Babylon says users may pay protocol, Vault Provider and network fees. Its product page displays estimated native Bitcoin borrowing rates between 3% and 5%, alongside estimates between 0% and 5% for on-chain borrowing and between 9% and 16% for centralized borrowing. The page warns that rates and fees are variable and may change. Those ranges are product-page estimates, not terms promised to HashKey clients.
The integration is not live yet Native Bitcoin-backed borrowing through TBV is available on a public Aave v4 testnet with test assets. The HashKey announcement describes a future integration and gives no production deployment date. It also leaves open which entity will act as Vault Provider, how HashKey will handle access controls, which Aave market will hold the debt, and what collateral and liquidation settings will apply.
Those missing terms matter to institutions comparing this route with custody-based loans or wrapped Bitcoin in existing lending markets. Self-custody changes one category of counterparty exposure, but the position still depends on code, proofs, market liquidity, oracle inputs and liquidation execution. Borrowers also need the complete fee schedule to compare the advertised structure with another loan.
A prospective borrower will need several parameters before using the service: the supported debt assets, the variable rate for each asset, the liquidation threshold, oracle design, Vault Provider fees and network costs. The published flow also makes repayment operationally important because a full withdrawal requires the outstanding debt and accrued interest to be repaid. If collateral crosses the liquidation threshold first, the system supports a partial liquidation instead.
The next stated milestone is the release of integration timing and partnership details in the coming months. Until then, the verifiable state is a planned HashKey service built around a live public testnet, not a production borrowing market for HashKey clients.
Strike spustil Stacks, který umožňuje rozdělit bitcoiny na jednom účtu až do pěti pojmenovaných spořicích kategorií s vlastními pravidelnými nákupy bez poplatků.
Strike wants your Bitcoin to have a filing system.
On October 7, 2026, the Bitcoin-focused financial app founded by Jack Mallers launched Stacks. The feature lets users divide their Bitcoin holdings into up to five named buckets inside a single account.
It works like the old envelope method for household budgeting. Rent money goes in one envelope, vacation money in another, and nobody accidentally spends the mortgage on concert tickets. Strike’s version does the same thing, except every envelope holds Bitcoin.
How Stacks actually works Users can create as many as five stacks, each with its own name. The idea is goal-based saving, so one stack might be earmarked for a house down payment while another sits as a long-term reserve.
Moving Bitcoin between stacks costs nothing. Transfers between stacks and the main balance carry no fees and no limits.
There is one rule worth knowing. If you want to send Bitcoin outside of Strike, it has to travel back to the main balance first.
Each stack can also run its own recurring purchase plan, with no fee attached. This is dollar-cost averaging, usually shortened to DCA.
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For the uninitiated, DCA means buying a fixed dollar amount on a regular schedule, regardless of price. Instead of trying to time the market, you buy a little every week or month and let the averages work themselves out.
Strike already offered recurring buys before this launch. Stacks extends that by letting users attach a distinct plan, with its own savings goal and cycle, to each bucket.
So the house fund could get a weekly buy while the retirement stack gets a monthly one. Each bucket runs on its own schedule.
Cash balances stay separate from all of this. The stacks hold Bitcoin, while USD sits in its own lane.
The feature is available for both personal and business accounts. Strike says it covers every jurisdiction where the company operates.
A second launch on the same day Stacks did not arrive alone. Strike paired the announcement with a new product called Bitcoin Interest on Cash.
That offering provides a 3.6% yield on USD balances, with the yield converted to Bitcoin. In other words, your dollars earn a return, and that return shows up as Bitcoin rather than more dollars.
Both launches live entirely inside Strike’s own ecosystem. No third-party protocols or tokens are involved.
The custody picture Stacks operates within Strike’s custodial setup. That means Strike holds the Bitcoin on users’ behalf, rather than users controlling their own private keys.
According to the company, the holdings stay in multi-signature cold storage. Multi-signature means several separate keys are required to authorize a transaction, so no single compromised key can move funds. Cold storage means those keys are kept offline, away from internet-connected systems that attackers typically target.
What this means for Strike and its users There are limits worth keeping in mind. Five stacks is a cap, so users with elaborate savings plans will need to consolidate goals.
The requirement to route outgoing Bitcoin through the main balance adds a step for anyone withdrawing to a personal wallet.
The research behind this launch frames it as likely positive for both retail and institutional users looking for Bitcoin management tools. The argument is that structured savings features could improve user retention and could draw in customers who want more organized strategies.
The business account angle deserves attention too. Companies holding Bitcoin often need to separate funds by purpose, such as operating reserves versus long-term treasury, and Stacks gives them a built-in way to do that.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Americké spotové bitcoinové ETF zaznamenaly 6. října čistý příliv 118,8 milionu USD po čistém odlivu 89,8 milionu USD v předchozím obchodním dni; většinu nových investic přilákal iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) společnosti BlackRock.
Bitcoin hovered close to $84,300 after a brief dip to approximately $83,680, based on LSEG figures cited by Barron’s. The latest pullback marks another unsuccessful attempt by the cryptocurrency to surpass the $87,000 resistance level that has restricted price advances since late September.
Exchange flows signal shifting dynamicsAccording to data from CryptoQuant, seven-day Bitcoin inflows to Binance dropped to 32,642 BTC as of October 5. This reading falls within the 11th percentile of the past year, signaling notably low deposit activity on the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume.
Binance also saw its seven-day Exchange Whale Ratio climb to 0.515, reaching its highest point since August. This ratio tracks the proportion of total exchange inflows coming from the ten largest deposits, providing insights into large-holder activity.
A heightened whale ratio can suggest large holders are taking a more active role on exchanges, which may increase available sell-side liquidity. However, since overall deposits are unusually low, whales make up a larger share of inflows even if their absolute transfer volumes remain steady.
CryptoQuant, a leading blockchain analytics platform, advised caution in interpreting the elevated whale ratio as a direct sell-off signal given the subdued total volume.
Mini dictionary: Exchange Whale Ratio – a metric showing the amount of cryptocurrency deposited by the top ten largest entities relative to all exchange inflows. A higher ratio can indicate growing influence of large holders on short-term price dynamics.
Spot and futures market updateGlassnode’s latest market pulse noted that Bitcoin’s spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) reversed from negative $102.8 million to positive $33.2 million in the past week. This transition points to renewed aggressive spot buying activity, suggesting that buyers are regaining control after recent weakness.
In derivatives, futures open interest declined from $38 billion to $36.6 billion, which indicates a reduction in leverage following September’s rally. This easing of position sizes may help stabilize the market after recent volatility.
DateBTC Spot CVDFutures Open InterestPrevious Week– $102.8 million$38 billionLatest+ $33.2 million$36.6 billionIn another sign of renewed institutional interest, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $118.8 million on October 6. This recovery follows an $89.8 million withdrawal reported the previous trading session.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) captured nearly all of the new investments, reinforcing its status as a primary avenue for institutional Bitcoin exposure. The inflows contributed to a strong third quarter for U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively attracted $6.34 billion over the period.
Glassnode’s analysis indicates that spot market momentum has returned, while leveraged positioning in futures has moderated after the recent rally. At the same time, leading ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT continue to see strong demand from investors.
Ledger announced at Singapore’s TOKEN2049 conference the launch of its Crypto Loan feature, which allows eligible users to borrow USDC or USDT using cbBTC or WBTC as collateral, enabling them to access liquidity without selling their Bitcoin. The feature is powered by decentralized lending protocol Morpho via technical service provider Yield.xyz. Users can directly create and manage loans, monitor loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, add collateral, repay loans, or increase borrowing limits within the Ledger Wallet. Key operations still require physical confirmation via Ledger’s hardware devices, with private keys and final transaction authorization remaining fully under users’ control. Ledger also announced that its hardware devices will support direct connection to Morpho, eliminating the need for browser extensions or software wallets. The company noted that the Crypto Loan feature will be rolled out gradually to eligible users. This move further advances Ledger’s expansion from a hardware wallet provider into the financial services sector. Previously, Coinbase launched a Bitcoin-backed fixed-rate loan built on Morpho, while JPMorgan is also exploring using Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral.
Arthur Hayes očekává, že případný kolaps investic do AI a následné poskytnutí likvidity vládami a centrálními bankami by mohly podpořit Bitcoin a další kryptoměny.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes the AI investment mania will be a major positive catalyst for Bitcoin if it ends up crashing down.
In an interview with CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore, Hayes said that the excessive investments pouring into AI data centers are ripe for an oversupply.
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The current investment mania in AI is a multitrillion-dollar case of capital misallocation, said Hayes. At the end of the day, all this means is that we will have cheap and accessible massive compute power.
This might be a painful journey for financial markets in the process.
Why AI crash could be bullish for BitcoinIf the AI infrastructure boom leads to a major credit crisis, governments and central banks will eventually intervene, according to Hayes.
They will inject additional liquidity into the financial system. In his opinion, Bitcoin and other cryptos are the likely winners of all this excess cash.
The immediate catalyst for a Bitcoin boost is not necessarily an AI crash. Initially, a major deleveraging move could be negative for risk assets. But afterwards, the monetary response could be bullish for stocks.
This could play out around 2027–2028, when the companies that promised all this massive compute power need to actually generate enough money to justify the costs.
It could also be that over the next year, the demand for AI becomes strong enough to justify this large infrastructure investment. Hayes admits that this could be a potential scenario. Basically, the usefulness of AI may allow companies to grow into these massive compute costs.
This is not the first time Hayes has envisioned such a scenario.
In August, the co-founder of BitMEX compared the AI infrastructure boom to the credit excesses before the financial crisis of 2008. But rather than viewing this current cycle as another dot-com tech bubble, Hayes said people should pay attention to the debt financing for the data centers and expensive compute hardware.
Currently, Hayes himself is not shorting the AI boom. Still, he is pretty confident that there is a lot of overbuilding.
St. Cloud Financial Credit Union uchovává pro své členy více než 20 BTC v hybridním úložišti s podanou patentovou přihláškou a více podpisy, které jim zajišťuje individuální vlastnictví bitcoinů.
A credit union founded by postal workers in 1930 is now custodying real Bitcoin for its members. St. Cloud Financial Credit Union CEO Jed Meyer explains how its patent-pending hybrid custody model gives each member individual Bitcoin ownership in a multisig vault. He also covers how the credit union has grown to more than 20 BTC under custody without even trying.
Chapters:
00:00 St. Cloud Financial Credit Union’s Path to Bitcoin
01:08 Stablecoins, Dollars, and Bitcoin as New Money Networks
02:26 Bitcoin ETF vs. Credit Union Custody: The Hybrid Custody Model
03:18 Bringing Main Street Into Bitcoin With Direct Buy and Sell
04:45 Minnesota Custody Law, NCUA Exams, and the CLARITY Act
07:32 20+ Bitcoin in Member Vaults and Lightning Plans
09:38 What It Takes for a Credit Union to Own Bitcoin
10:57 The Cloud Dollar Stablecoin and the Cooperative Ownership Model
12:59 How Credit Unions Decide Which Digital Assets to Offer
14:10 Educating Skeptics and Why Credit Unions Must Own Their Rails
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
South Africa’s second-largest bank is letting its customers buy Bitcoin without ever leaving the banking app. First National Bank (FNB) has unveiled a feature called “Crypto Investing” that opens digital asset trading to nearly 9 million retail clients.
FNB is the retail banking arm of the FirstRand group. It announced the service on October 6, 2026, and built it in partnership with VALR, a local crypto exchange. Clients can buy, sell and trade digital assets directly on the bank’s existing share-trading platform.
What FNB clients can actually trade The menu is short for now. The service supports five assets: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL) and the USDT stablecoin from Tether.
The barrier to entry is about as low as it gets. Trades start at a minimum of R10, which works out to about $0.60.
Trading runs 24/7, which matches how crypto markets operate. Clients fund their purchases directly from their FNB accounts. There is no need to wire money to a third-party exchange or juggle a separate login.
The feature plugs into FNB’s existing investment products. Those include Share Saver, Share Builder, Share Investor and Share Zero.
The walled garden approach There is one significant catch. Any crypto bought through FNB stays inside the bank’s ecosystem. Clients cannot send their coins out to an external wallet or another exchange.
FNB has two reasons for the restriction. The first is compliance with South African exchange-control regulations, which govern how money and value move across the country’s borders. The second is security. Keeping assets within a controlled environment reduces the risk of customers sending funds to scam wallets or fraudulent platforms.
FNB executives pointed to strong customer demand for alternative investments as the motivation. They framed the bank as a trusted gateway to these markets, one that comes with established risk management attached.
South African banks warm up to crypto FNB is not the first mover here. Discovery Bank struck a similar arrangement with crypto exchange Luno in November 2025.
The local numbers back that up. More than 6 million South Africans were estimated to hold crypto assets as of late 2025. Over that same period, more than R25 billion in crypto assets were reported under custody at major platforms.
What this means for investors and the banking sector For VALR, the partnership is a distribution win. Exchanges usually spend heavily to acquire customers one at a time. Plugging into a major bank’s client base offers reach that is hard to build independently.
FNB says it plans to expand the list of supported assets. The bank also intends to provide educational resources to help clients understand the complexities and risks of digital currencies.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Michael Saylor rozlišuje Bitcoin jako přímou expozici, akcie Strategy ($MSTR) jako zesílenou expozici a STRC jako nástroj generující příjem. Jejich 30denní volatilita činila 39 %, 94 % a 9 %.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), has outlined a three-tier framework in which Bitcoin and instruments built around it can address distinct investor preferences.
In a recent post, he argued that the cryptocurrency itself suits those who want straightforward ownership of the asset, while Strategy’s common equity and a preferred security can serve people seeking either magnified market participation or steadier dollar-denominated cash flow.
The comparison he circulated places 30-day historical price volatility near 94 percent for Strategy’s common shares, roughly 39 percent for Bitcoin, and about 9 percent for the company’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC.
Those figures, drawn from market data through early October, position the preferred issue below the realized swings of every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven group over the same window.
Large-cap technology names in that set ranged from the low 20s percent for Apple up toward the mid-40s for Meta, according to the same snapshot.
Strategy’s common stock sat well above Bitcoin and far above the preferred line.Saylor has framed the arrangement as layers resting on a single foundation.
He describes Bitcoin as digital capital, Strategy’s common stock as digital equity that carries amplified exposure to that capital plus any growth in the firm’s credit business, and STRC as digital credit aimed at income with compressed price movement.
Under this view, investors who simply want to hold the underlying asset can buy Bitcoin or a spot fund.
Those willing to accept larger swings in exchange for leverage on Bitcoin’s path, and on the expansion of related products, can hold the common shares.
Those prioritizing periodic dollar distributions and narrower short-term price ranges can look at the preferred stock.
STRC is structured as a perpetual preferred whose dividend rate adjusts monthly in an effort to keep the shares trading near a $100 par level.
Bitcoin can serve very different investors. $BTC offers direct ownership, $MSTR amplified exposure, and $STRC income with less 30-day price volatility than every Mag 7 stock. Digital Capital is the foundation for Digital Equity and Digital Credit. pic.twitter.com/Jvenbigni4
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 4, 2026
The design is intended to shift more of Bitcoin’s price variability toward the common equity, while the preferred claim sits higher in the capital structure and is supported by dollar liquidity reserves and active balance-sheet management.
Saylor has separately noted that the preferred’s recent 30-day volatility reading of 9 percent also came in just under the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which he presented as a milestone for the digital credit concept.
On the broader chart he shared, the preferred ranked above only a broad bond-market ETF and below gold, real-estate, and Nasdaq-100 trackers as well as Bitcoin and Strategy common stock.
The distinction matters because amplification cuts both ways.
Common shareholders capture more of the upside when Bitcoin rises and absorb more of the downside when it falls; the preferred is engineered to dampen that transmission for income-focused holders, though it remains exposed to credit, liquidity, and dividend-adjustment risks tied to the same treasury.
Strategy continues to adjust the mix by issuing or repurchasing the preferred and by adding to its Bitcoin holdings, treating the cryptocurrency as the capital base for both the equity and the credit instruments. Whether the volatility gap persists will depend on market conditions, the size of the preferred program, and how effectively the variable dividend and reserve policies keep the shares near par.
For now, Saylor’s framing offers investors a menu: direct Bitcoin ownership, leveraged equity exposure through Strategy common stock, or an income-oriented preferred whose recent price swings have been markedly smaller than those of either.
Španělská vláda znovu schválila dvě mimořádná nařízení o bydlení, včetně omezení růstu nájmů do konce roku 2027 a automatického prodlužování nájemních smluv.
Spain has just shown every property owner in Europe that the rules around their asset can be rewritten by decree. Bitcoin is the one asset where that cannot happen.
I direct the Masters in Bitcoin at the Universidad de las Hespérides. My field focuses on how people build wealth over decades, not weeks. In Spain, for generations, the answer to long-term family wealth was land and property until now.
Last week the government made that path close to impossible. I am not writing to dismiss real estate. I am writing because Spain has just threatened one of the few long-term wealth-building tools ordinary families had, and they will need another one.
Two decrees, one message On 29 September, the Spanish government approved two emergency decrees on housing. They took effect within days, and a planned hearing in Congress was on Friday, October 2, and the decree didn’t pass, though it was a very close vote.
Spain’s government did not pass these rules as a normal law. On 29 September, it approved two emergency decrees (reales decretos-ley). The Constitution reserves this tool for cases of “extraordinary and urgent need”. A decree-law takes effect immediately, and Congress then has thirty days to validate or repeal it. The government split the reforms into two so each could be voted on separately, rather than one controversial measure sinking everything.
The first decree capped rent rises until the end of 2027. A rent already above the maximum set by the official reference-price index could not rise at all. In every other case, the parties could agree to an update, and without a new agreement, the increase could not exceed 2%. Spain’s inflation in September was 4.9%, according to the national statistics institute, so an owner’s real income would shrink every year by law.
The second decree went further. At the end of the minimum term, if neither side has given notice, the lease renews compulsorily in successive five-year periods, or seven if the landlord is a legal entity. A landlord who ends a contract without a reason listed in the law must compensate the tenant. The payment is calculated, where possible, on the state rent-reference system, and can never be less than one month’s rent for each year the tenant has lived in the home. In practice, owners lose much of their freedom to recover their own property or re-let it at current prices.
The rules also apply to contracts that are already signed, from their next renewal date (Provivienda summary). This is why many consider the decrees unconstitutional. Critics argue that they retroactively rewrite private agreements that both sides signed under different rules, which Article 9.3 of the Constitution bars for measures restricting individual rights.
Congress never settled that question. On 2 October it rejected the first decree by 178 votes to 172 and the second by 184 to 166. Sánchez then called general elections for 29 November.
On Tuesday the Council of Ministers approved both decrees again, introducing only technical changes, and sent them to the Diputación Permanente of Congress, where Junts’s vote is not needed. This is the reduced body that replaces the full chamber once Congress is dissolved. Sánchez said the second decree, on automatic renewals, would only take effect if that body validates it, rather than on publication in the BOE. Jurists consulted by one newspaper consider the move borderline abuse of law.
Investors can live with strict rules. What they cannot price is a rule that changes after they have committed. That last point is the one every property owner in Europe should read twice.
The market answered in hours The owners did not wait for the vote. A Spanish TV programme reported that around 2,900 rental listings were pulled from property portals in roughly four hours (EDATV). In Madrid, listings reportedly fell about 20% in under 24 hours, from 11,815 to 9,398 (LaBandera). These are early, unaudited counts. The direction is still clear.
None of this is new. We have run this experiment many times, and it keeps giving the same result.
Berlin, 2020: the city froze rents for five years. Studies at the time found the supply of regulated flats roughly halved, while unregulated rents rose. The constitutional court struck the law down in 2021. San Francisco, 1994: a Stanford study by Diamond, McQuade and Qian found that expanded rent control helped sitting tenants stay, but landlords cut regulated supply by about 15% and citywide rents rose by about 5%. Catalonia, 2024: rent caps in stressed zones slowed price growth, but rental listings fell 22.2% in Barcelona, while they rose 3.9% in Madrid (Fedea, via idealista). Spain itself, 1946 to 1985: forced, near-permanent lease extensions froze old rents for decades. Owners stopped maintaining buildings and city centres decayed, until the 1985 Boyer decree ended the system. The new automatic-renewal decree is, in its logic, a return to that old Spanish model.
The real problem is not landlords Spain does not have a landlord problem. It has a housing shortage. In 2025, around 240,000 new households formed while only about 92,000 homes were completed. The Bank of Spain puts the accumulated deficit for 2021 to 2025 at roughly 750,000 homes (Cantabria Económica).
The same report names the obstacles: scarce buildable land, slow urban development, and rigid planning. Economists such as my colleague Daniel Fernández Méndez argue that restrictive land rules and ever-stricter building standards have made construction unprofitable, even at today’s prices (Hespérides).
So the state restricts what can be built, then caps what can be earned from what already exists. Supply shrinks from both ends.
The people who pay are not established owners. They have options: they can sell, wait, or leave a flat empty rather than risk a tenant who never leaves. Renters pay. With fewer flats on offer, the rent on the ones that remain will rise, and more people will end up in informal arrangements with no contract and no protection, on the edge of the grey economy.
Buying is no way out either. Spaniards cannot afford to buy for the same reason they cannot afford to rent: there are too few homes, and these decrees do nothing to change that. Some landlords will be pushed to sell, but that will barely move prices. Sales adjust far more slowly than rentals. An owner whose mortgage is larger than what the flat would fetch cannot sell at all. Many others will simply wait and hope for a change of government, leaving their apartments empty. The result is that more people will be unable to rent or buy. Tenants lose, small investors lose, and the housing shortage stays exactly where it was.
An asset no decree can rewrite The biggest risk in real estate is not the market. It is that the rules around your asset can be changed by a government at any time, and you cannot move the asset somewhere else. A building sits in one jurisdiction forever.
Bitcoin is the opposite on every one of those points.
Fixed rules: the supply is capped at 21 million, and that rule has not changed in seventeen years. Arguably all Bitcoin infrastructure is built precisely to avoid that from happening. No minister can cap its yield, freeze it, or extend someone else’s claim on it. Real ownership: held in your own wallet, it has no tenant who can stop paying, no squatter who can move in, and no court that has to approve its sale. Portable: it does not sit in any one country. If the rules where you live turn hostile, your savings do not have to stay there. Open to small savers: buying property takes a deposit, a mortgage, a notary and years of commitment. Bitcoin can be bought a few euros at a time, on a regular schedule, by anyone. For most Spanish families, property is almost all of their wealth. This week showed how much of that wealth depends on politics.
The long-term picture shows both the reward and the price of it. Bought just after the 2017 peak, a bitcoin stake lost almost three-quarters of its value within a year, then outgrew Spanish housing several times over.
Past performance does not predict future returns. Bitcoin is highly volatile, and its value can fall sharply. The housing line shows price change only and excludes rental income, taxes, maintenance, and purchase costs. This is not investment advice.
Long Live Bitcoin Families will always need a place to live, so they will keep buying or renting homes. What has changed is the second flat, property as an investment. For a small investor, the risk now outweighs the return, and that removes one of the few ways ordinary Spaniards had to build wealth over a lifetime.
Bitcoin can fill that gap, if it is treated the way property always was: as a long-term holding, not a lottery ticket. Its price is volatile and can fall sharply in the short term. Anyone who holds it should think in years, buy regularly instead of trying to time the market, and never put in money they will need next year.
Property gives you an asset whose rules can be rewritten. Bitcoin gives you price swings but rules that stay put. After this week, many more Spaniards will be asking which of those risks they would rather carry with their savings.
Whatever Congress decides, Spain’s property owners have learned that their contracts can be changed after they sign them. That lesson will not be voted away. The rental market as Spain knew it is gone. Long live bitcoin.
Šéf společnosti The Smarter Web Company Andrew Webley varuje, že společnosti s bitcoinovými rezervami investorům zesilují expozici vůči volatilitě BTC a jejich výkonnost navíc závisí na rozhodnutích managementu, která mohou výrazně ovlivnit výnosy akcionářů.
While Bitcoin is less volatile than it used to be, an analyst says a treasury company amplifies whatever swings remain in the asset.
Bitcoin treasury companies can give investors greater exposure to the cryptocurrency’s gains, but the amplification works in both directions, according to The Smarter Web Company CEO Andrew Webley.
In a recent interview with BTC advocate Stephen Livera, Webley also warned that unlike Bitcoin itself, these companies depend on management teams whose capital allocation decisions can materially affect shareholder returns.
Bitcoin Exposure Comes With Added Volatility Webley identified two risks investors need to understand, the first being volatility. Bitcoin is less volatile than it used to be, the CEO conceded, but it still swings more than many assets investors hold, and a treasury company “amplifies that volatility,” and investors cheer that on the way up and mostly dislike it on the way down.
“People don’t like it when I say it, but you can’t have it both ways,” Webley remarked. “You can’t have performance and no volatility.”
The second risk is management execution, which decides whether these companies work or not. According to Webley, executives have numerous decisions to make, particularly around capital structure, and choices that might allow a firm to grow faster could come at the expense of shareholders.
“Bitcoin has no management,” he stated. “A Bitcoin treasury company, the management could really, really mess it up.”
That leaves treasury-stock investors with a choice that Bitcoin holders do not face in the same form: accepting Bitcoin’s volatility while also trusting a management team to make the right financing and accumulation decisions.
Strategy and Strive Show the Trade-Off The scale of the current treasury operations helps explain why those decisions matter. As CryptoPotato reported yesterday, Strategy bought another 334 BTC for $28.7 million, taking its holdings to 848,000 BTC. The company has spent almost $64 billion accumulating Bitcoin at an average price of $75,441.
On the same day, Strive bought 2,000 BTC for $169 million at an average price of $84,422, bringing its holdings to 29,462 BTC. The company’s CEO Matt Cole argued that his firm can generate greater returns than their bigger rival through a higher amplification ratio, with Strive’s ratio at 51.4%, compared with roughly 25% for Strategy. Cole also projected that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 to $500,000 by late 2029.
You may also like: Altcoins Are Rallying, But Analyst Says Alt Season Has Yet to Begin Peter Schiff Predicts Bitcoin Will Drop If Tech Stocks Pull Back Strive CEO Says ASST Can Outrun Strategy in the Next Bitcoin Bull Market At the time of writing, the OG cryptocurrency’s price was still some way from that target. It was rejected at $87,000 on Monday morning after a weak US jobs report had pushed it above that level on Friday for the first time in ten days, but it fell below $84,000 within hours, leaving nearly $600 million in liquidations.
The latest CoinGecko reading has it within touching distance of $86,000, down half a percent in 24 hours but up nearly 7% across 30 days. However, it is still about 32% below its $126,000 all-time high.
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck has a simple thesis: approve more nuclear power, and two very different industries get a boost at once.
His argument is that greenlighting a nuclear plant would raise the value of AI and reduce Bitcoin sell pressure by delivering cheaper energy.
The reasoning rests on one shared constraint. AI and Bitcoin mining both run on enormous amounts of electricity, and whoever controls cheap, reliable power controls the economics of both.
The nuclear case, according to VanEck In a September 2025 interview, van Eck pointed to a major policy shift in favor of nuclear power. The driver, in his telling, is surging electricity demand from AI data centers and digital asset activity.
He highlighted substantial bipartisan support for nuclear energy in the US, referencing initiatives from both the current administration and the Trump administration. The headline effort is a plan aimed at quadrupling US nuclear output over the next 25 years.
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Van Eck cited the expedited restart of a reactor at Three Mile Island as evidence that the trend is real rather than theoretical. That restart comes through a deal between Microsoft and Constellation Energy, designed to bring a Three Mile Island unit back online ahead of its originally scheduled startup.
Why Bitcoin miners keep coming up Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, has argued that Bitcoin miners sit in an unusually strong position. His point is that miners already hold extensive power contracts and the physical infrastructure to use them — exactly the assets AI and high-performance computing companies are scrambling to secure.
Sigel has noted that the market values Bitcoin miners at a discount compared with traditional data center operators. He described miners’ long-term power agreements as holding an “underappreciated optionality.”
Miners have traditionally sold a portion of the Bitcoin they produce to cover operating costs, especially electricity. If miners earn revenue from AI and computing contracts, they lean less on selling Bitcoin to pay the bills.
Sigel has also pointed to signs of seller fatigue among Bitcoin miners, observed in October 2026. He linked that to the structural value of miner power assets as AI demand rises.
VanEck’s own scorecard VanEck has a stake in both sides of this story. The firm runs Bitcoin investment products alongside a nuclear-focused fund.
The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF, which trades under the ticker NLR, was reportedly up approximately 40% in the year. The fund drew around $2.8 billion in assets by the end of 2025.
Readers should weigh the commentary with that context in mind. A firm that sells nuclear and crypto exposure naturally has reasons to talk up the overlap between them.
What this means For Bitcoin, the most interesting part of van Eck’s argument is about who sells Bitcoin and why. If AI contracts and cheaper electricity turn miners into diversified power companies, a reliable source of supply could quietly shrink.
For the nuclear sector, the Microsoft and Constellation deal is the clearest real-world test so far. If that Three Mile Island restart arrives early and on budget, it strengthens the case that tech demand can actually accelerate nuclear timelines.
The things to watch are concrete: nuclear approvals and restart timelines, how many miners sign AI or computing contracts, and whether miner selling keeps tapering as Sigel suggests.
Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
[PRESS RELEASE – Hong Kong, Hong Kong, October 6th, 2026]
ASICID Inc. has released its IDMINER Series, a new lineup of cryptocurrency mining systems designed for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dogecoin mining.
The series includes the IDMINER HomeRack, IDMINER 2 and IDMINER 1, with configurations ranging from 1,150 TH/s to 9,600 TH/s of Bitcoin hashrate and from 350 GH/s to 3,200 GH/s of Litecoin and Dogecoin hashrate.
The three models are designed for different mining setups, from individual and home miners to professional and larger-scale operators.
IDMINER Series Specifications
IDMINER HomeRack
Bitcoin hashrate: 9,600 TH/s Litecoin/Dogecoin hashrate: 3,200 GH/s Power configuration: 4 × 1,300W Estimated monthly mining revenue: up to $25,590* IDMINER 2
Bitcoin hashrate: 2,400 TH/s Litecoin/Dogecoin hashrate: 800 GH/s Power consumption: 1,300W Estimated monthly mining revenue: up to $6,390* IDMINER 1
Bitcoin hashrate: 1,150 TH/s Litecoin/Dogecoin hashrate: 350 GH/s Power consumption: 700W Estimated monthly mining revenue: up to $2,790* *The revenue figures are estimates based on network conditions, cryptocurrency prices, and mining difficulty at the time of publication.
Designed for Simpler Deployment
The IDMINER systems are delivered pre-configured and tested before shipment. Users can connect the miner to power, connect via WiFi or Ethernet, enter their preferred mining pool information, and begin mining.
The systems support major mining pools and also provide access to ASICID’s Zero-Fee Mining Pool option.
Other features include thermal management and hardware testing before shipment.
Built for Bitcoin, Litecoin and Dogecoin Mining
ASICID develops and manufactures its mining hardware through an integrated production process that includes research and development, hardware engineering, assembly, thermal testing, and quality assurance.
The company is headquartered in Hong Kong with additional operations in the United States and serves individual miners, professional mining businesses, and institutional operators.
With the IDMINER Series, ASICID is targeting miners looking for high-hashrate hardware with straightforward deployment and power requirements suited to ongoing mining operations.
For more information about the IDMINER Series, users can visit www.asicid.com.
As of today, Quantus, a new quantum-resistant, private L1 pitching itself as an alternative to Bitcoin, is tradable through NEAR Intents, giving QTC its first real connection to cross-chain liquidity.
The proof-of-work chain itself has actually been live since September 9th, but until now has remained largely isolated by the lack of a real liquidity network, making QTC difficult to buy and, as a result, difficult to build a base of holders around. Going live on NEAR Intents changes that, opening Quantus up to a much larger pool of crypto liquidity.
To discuss the launch, co-founder Christopher Smith joined our podcast to share more about the L1, what he sees as the real hurdles of quantum, and why it's working so closely with NEAR.
What follows is a summary of the conversation, and what it says about how Bitcoin, Zcash and Quantus each trade off credibility, privacy, and quantum risk.
Let's begin.
— (@)
What Is Quantus? Quantus is an L1 built to weather quantum attacks and remain private while doing so.
It replaces Bitcoin's vulnerable elliptic curve signatures with a quantum-resistant, lattice-based scheme, while borrowing a proposed Ethereum design to keep transactions private through zero knowledge. Like Bitcoin, it has a 21 million supply cap, though 27% of it was pre-mined for investors, founders, and the team, with the rest being steadily dripped as block rewards rather than halvings.
What's drawn interest (or raised eyebrows based on who you are) is that it's backed by many of the same names that got loud on Zcash last year. Balaji led the second round, plus AngelList co-founder Babak Nivi and Solana's resident ZODLer Mert are among the investors.
All of it is in service of the quantum problem, whose scale and layered social complexity Smith outlines better than anyone I've heard recently.
The Quantum Problem Smith’s core point is simple: the technical problem can be solved, but the social coordination problem remains massive.
BIP-360, a proposal to add a new quantum-resistant address type to Bitcoin, offers one technical path, but it only protects coins that migrate. That leaves Satoshi's coins, along with coins lost, forgotten, or held by the deceased effectively unreachable, unable to migrate even if BIP-360 or something like it passes and thus indefinitely vulnerable Sure, Bitcoin's 17 years of distribution strengthens its decentralization, but also makes reaching every exposed holder close to impossible. For Bitcoin, that is a credibility problem as much as a technical one, since its core promise is that you own your coins.
And it isn't just Bitcoin facing the threat of quantum. The whole industry has been layering one cryptographic scheme on top of another for a decade, Smith argues, leaving a patchworked system that's incredibly difficult to upgrade in its entirety.
For example, on Ethereum, migrating a normal wallet could mean unwinding a lending position, repaying debt, moving the assets and rebuilding the position in a new wallet. Staking and crosschain systems have their own cryptography to upgrade on top of that.
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This is where Quantus believes it can compete, by offering one clean, simple fix, a chain that starts without the layers.
— (@)
The Catch Yet as we know, there's usually no "one clean, simple fix," and Quantus's pitch sounds a lot like the "I can fix Bitcoin with my new L1" promises we've heard before. The difference is that the problem it points to is real. But a real problem doesn't guarantee anyone shows up to hold the solution.
Smith acknowledges this: Quantus removes Bitcoin's cryptographic migration risk, but swaps it for an adoption problem, which is really a credibility problem. Out of the gate there’s no liquidity, no brand, no holders, no network effects.
Their work with NEAR is, in part, an attempt to jumpstart that credibility. Think of NEAR Intents as the venue where QTC is now effectively "listed," connecting it to crosschain liquidity and a far larger pool of potential traders than Quantus could build on its own, which is especially difficult for a proof-of-work coin whose early supply has yet to be mined.
Being easier to trade doesn't manufacture credibility, but it feeds some of its ingredients: liquidity, distribution, and network effects. It also casts NEAR as a sort of port for specialized new chains looking for a way into the rest of crypto.
Three Assets, Three Risk Profiles Put the three chains I’ve mentioned in this article so far side by side and the tradeoff is clearer:
Bitcoin has the most credibility, but little privacy and real quantum migration risk. That credibility is trending down.
Zcash has privacy, a quantum roadmap through Tachyon, and credibility that is trending up.
Quantus has privacy and quantum resistance today, but no credibility yet.
None of the three is strictly better. They're different mixes of the same qualities, each hedging the others' weaknesses, and each asking you to take on a different risk.
This is also why I don't think Zcash's backers funding Quantus necessarily undermines Zcash. Yes, both are pitching themselves as alternative stores of value to Bitcoin. But Zcash has something Quantus cannot simply code into existence: a decade of development, organizations devoted to improving it, and a decade's worth of token distribution. Quantus has been live for less than a month.
That brings us back to the bigger picture: I expect this spectrum of "Bitcoin, but better" alternatives to become a larger theme this cycle. We've seen Bitcoin challengers promise faster blocks or cheaper transactions before, but those never threatened Bitcoin's core promise. Quantum does. It goes after ownership, the thing Bitcoin is ultimately supposed to guarantee, and with it the credibility Bitcoin has built. Pair that with a widening sense that Bitcoin has been absorbed by the financial system it was built to route around, as I argued recently, and challengers have more room than they've had in a while.
This is Not Bitcoin’s Cycle on Bankless
Last cycle mainstreamed Bitcoin. This one may belong to Zcash and alts with real revenue, buybacks, and newly opening U.S. markets.
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That doesn't mean Quantus wins. It could easily be a nonevent. Whether it captures any of that room is another question entirely.
In brief Zcash and Monero were the two best performers among the largest coins over 24 hours, while Bitcoin gained just 0.59% and Ethereum 0.34%. Zcash still trades about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698, and Grayscale's Zcash ETF saw $30.25 million in outflows on Sept. 30. Macro is holding everything still: the Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, then September payrolls came in at 29,000 against 84,000 expected. After weeks of Bitcoin turning heads and climbing the charts, the top of the crypto market is now barely moving. Bitcoin trades at $86,264.06, up 0.59% over 24 hours. Ethereum sits at $2,714.39, up just 0.34%.
The whole market is worth just north of $3 trillion, essentially flat for the day, according to CoinGecko data. The rest of the 12 largest coins are drifting in roughly the same way. Solana gained 1.4% and XRP 1.07%, while BNB lost 0.41% and Tron 0.22%.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Most traditional coins are flat, and then there’s privacy coins.
Zcash, perhaps the best known privacy coin, has been on a tear over the last year, and today is up 3%, recovering from a pullback off its recent peak near $1,600. Monero, meanwhile, is up 2.14% at $562.32 over the last 24 hours, making the privacy coins the standout performers on the day.
The daily charts tell the two coins apart. Zcash is up 2.62% on Binance since the day's candle opened, so its move is still running. Monero is riding a spike that began yesterday and kept running during the last 24 hours..
The overall flat tape for the crypto market has a reason. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023. Then the September jobs report landed with just 29,000 new jobs against the 84,000 economists expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
That weak print cut the odds of an October hike to about 22% right after the report, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood that interest rates do not increase again is a good sign for risk assets, so the September rate hike combined with odds of another hike sinking is essentially a wash—hence, a flat market.
Bitcoin, though, continues to show bullish momentum. Yesterday, it flashed a second golden cross, with its 100-day exponential moving average crossing above the 200-day. It is still sitting below resistance at $87,354. But even the most sustained bull runs need time to breathe.
Now, here’s the caveat on Zcash. A green day is not a trend reversal. ZEC still sits about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698, and one day of buying does not close that gap.
Zcash slid to $1,333.50 intraday on October first as Grayscale's Zcash ETF lost $30.25 million. Even after that outflow, the fund has taken in about $268 million in net inflows since it launched on Aug. 25.
Zoom out, and Zcash is its own story. The coin has gained about 2,500% over the previous 12 months, and it still not showing signs of a serious trend reversal.
The latest leg was a 253% climb from a $480.72 base to the $1,698 high in late September. It came with two big events: Grayscale's Zcash ETF launched on Aug. 25, and coinholders voted 98.9% on Sept. 17 to keep Bitcoin-style halvings (and keep the coin's inflation in check).
A cooldown is not out of character for this coin. ZEC dropped 38% when the Ironwood counterfeiting scare hit earlier this year, then recovered past $1,600. Against that, the current slide of about 19% from the September high is mild.
Monero is in a similar spot. XMR trades about 11% below its September high of $632.86. Its market cap is $10.57 billion, less than half of Zcash's $23.18 billion.
Based on the daily charts, both privacy coins are in consolidation, not breakout. On Zcash's daily chart, price is at $1,372.69, stuck just under the resistance zone at $1,403.89, measured from the $451.75 low to the $1,698 high. Today's high of $1,385 did not reach it. The 38.2% level at $1,221.93 sits below as the next marker.
A faster gauge disagrees on Monero, which is deep in overbought territory, but is showing a more constrained movement, trading sideways since late September.
Here are the levels to watch in the near term: Bitcoin needs to clear $87,354, Zcash faces $1,403.89 overhead, and Monero needs to keep holding above $558.69.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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Bitcoin traded around the $86,000 mark on Tuesday as the crypto market is supported by expectations of easing US monetary policy. The cryptocurrency was trading at $86,027.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has gone up 0.23% and Ethereum was down 0.35%. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin corrected by up to 1.30% whereas Tron, Hyperliquid, and Cardano gained by up to 2.65%
Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus, said weak September jobs data sharply reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike which has improved sentiment towards risk assets, including crypto. However, ETF flows have become more mixed after the strong inflows seen in late September.
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Subburaj further said investors should avoid chasing short-term rallies. A staggered approach and measured position sizes are preferable until the macro outlook becomes clearer.
The global crypto market capitalisation was down by 0.18% to $2.92 trillion, according to the data on Coinmarket cap.
Minal Thukral, Executive VP-Growth & Crypto Business Head at CoinDCX said after a significant rally, Bitcoin faces a considerable bearish pressure and is trading around $85,400 and the fear and greed index has slightly risen to 67, while the market sentiments are still greedy.
Over the last week, Bitcoin was up 2.11% and Ethereum was down 0.29%. Among the major altcoins, BNB, Tron, Hyperliquid, and Cardano gained by up to 9.34% whereas XRP, Solana, Dogecoin corrected by less than 1%.
Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said Bitcoin continues to hold a constructive structure, but the market is struggling to convert that strength into a decisive breakout. Price remains capped around the 86.5K-87.6K region, with the 2026 yearly open near $87,570 forming an important ceiling.
Sehgal further said that profit-taking remains elevated on-chain, but there are no clear signs of broader structural exhaustion. October seasonality also provides a mildly supportive backdrop.
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Market perspective
Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex: Bitcoin is consolidating around $85,600-86,000 after its strongest weekly close in eight months, but remains below its 2026 opening level near $87,570 as the dollar reached an 18-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.25%. Markets now expect an October 28 Fed pause after weak US jobs data. FOMC minutes on Wednesday and October 14 CPI will be key tests.
CoinSwitch Markets Desk: BTC traded around 85K-86K after briefly approaching $87K, as rising U.S. bond yields weighed on sentiment despite support from weak employment data. Institutional accumulation continued, with Strive buying 2,000 BTC and Strategy adding 334 BTC. A sustained break above $87K is necessary to signal further upside.
Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX: The crypto market is showing signs of consolidation, with Bitcoin trading around $85,514 and leading altcoins recording mild short-term declines despite remaining positive over the broader period shown.
Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42: Bitcoin is consolidating near the 85,500-86,000 range after another attempt to move above $87,000. The broader momentum remains constructive, although rising US bond yields are keeping some pressure on the market. Holding above the $85,000 level will be important for maintaining near-term strength.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Japanese bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet added a net 1,000 Bitcoin in the third quarter, bringing its holdings to 44,000 BTC worth about $3.8 billion as of September 30, according to the company’s disclosures reported by CoinDesk. The Tokyo-listed firm has become one of Asia’s most aggressive public bitcoin accumulators since it began buying the asset in April 2024, and the latest gain came through a sale and repurchase designed to demonstrate liquidity rather than simple accumulation. The move extends a buying streak that has made the firm one of the region’s most closely watched bitcoin treasuries.
The Sale-and-Repurchase Behind the Quarter Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC for roughly $789.2 million at an average of $78,925 per coin, then bought 11,000 BTC for $948.7 million at an average of $86,246. The firm temporarily held the proceeds in cash to show it could cover interest-bearing debt, though those obligations were not repaid, before repurchasing at higher prices. Executives framed the move as proof the company can access liquidity quickly while keeping its long-term bitcoin exposure, a point lenders scrutinize on crypto treasury balance sheets. Its total position now carries a cost basis of about $4.33 billion, or $98,454 per coin.
A New Income Strategy The company also introduced a Net Interest Income Strategy targeting investments principally in preferred securities issued by bitcoin treasury companies, with plans to allocate about 10% to 15% of total assets to the effort. The program is intended to generate returns above Metaplanet’s funding costs, helping service existing obligations while supporting further bitcoin purchases, and runs alongside a bitcoin options operation that has generated revenue for eight consecutive quarters. Its options-based Bitcoin income business produced roughly $5.4 million in Q3 revenue, down 51% from the prior quarter and 65% year over year, while nine-month revenue reached about $35.2 million. The third-quarter sale exceeded the size of the company’s entire debt, underscoring the scale of the liquidity demonstration. “Our objective has been to build the leading Bitcoin financial company in Asia,” CEO Simon Gerovich said.
The quarter strengthens Metaplanet’s position among Asia’s largest corporate bitcoin holders, following a path that Strategy and other public treasury firms have pursued with income-generating strategies alongside their holdings. Shares closed 2% higher on Monday at 297 yen ($1.88).
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A freelance writer with a passion for crypto, delivering insightful and accurate content on blockchain and fintech. With a knack for translating complex concepts into accessible content, Eric produces well-researched articles, blog posts, and thought leadership pieces that cover the latest trends and developments in the digital finance space. His writing is aimed at educating and engaging both newcomers and industry experts, offering fresh insights into the world of cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance (DeFi), and blockchain innovations. Eric’s dedication to quality and accuracy makes him a trusted voice in the fintech and crypto communities
, /PRNewswire/ -- Hyperscale Data, Inc. (NYSE American: GPUS), an artificial intelligence ("AI") data center company ("Hyperscale Data" or the "Company"), today announced that, as of October 4, 2026, it held 219.9586 Bitcoin representing an aggregate value of approximately $19 million based on the Bitcoin closing price of $86,480. Additionally, the Company held approximately $37.4 million in cash and restricted cash.
"We are pleased with the current financial position of the Company," stated Milton "Todd" Ault III, Executive Chairman of Hyperscale Data. "Our focus remains on strengthening the Company's balance sheet in order to support our core businesses and advance the development of our Michigan AI data center."
For more information on Hyperscale Data and its subsidiaries, Hyperscale Data recommends that stockholders, investors and any other interested parties read Hyperscale Data's public filings and press releases available under the Investor Relations section at hyperscaledata.com or available at www.sec.gov.
About Hyperscale Data, Inc.
Through its wholly owned subsidiary Sentinum, Inc., Hyperscale Data owns and operates a data center at which it offers colocation and hosting services for the emerging AI ecosystems and other industries. Another of Hyperscale Data's wholly owned subsidiaries, Ault Capital Group, Inc. ("ACG"), is a hybrid private equity firm and operating company that acquires, finances, builds and actively manages businesses across financial services, digital assets, industrial services, hospitality, defense technologies and other sectors.
Hyperscale Data currently expects the divestiture of ACG (the "Divestiture") to occur in 2027. Upon the occurrence of the Divestiture, the Company would be an owner and operator of data centers to support high-performance computing services, as well as a holder of the digital assets and the third wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, Omnipresent Robotics, LLC. Until the Divestiture occurs, the Company will continue to provide, through ACG and its wholly and majority-owned subsidiaries and strategic investments, mission-critical products that support a diverse range of industries, including an AI software platform, equipment rental services, defense/aerospace, industrial, automotive and hotel operations. In addition, ACG is actively engaged in private credit and structured finance through Ault Lending, LLC, a licensed lending subsidiary. Hyperscale Data's headquarters are located at 11411 Southern Highlands Parkway, Suite 190, Las Vegas, NV 89141.
On December 23, 2024, the Company issued one million (1,000,000) shares of a newly designated Series F Exchangeable Preferred Stock (the "Series F Preferred Stock") to all common stockholders and holders of the Series C Preferred Stock on an as-converted basis. The Divestiture will occur through the voluntary exchange of the Series F Preferred Stock for shares of Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock of ACG (collectively, the "ACG Shares"). The Company reminds its stockholders that only those holders of the Series F Preferred Stock who agree to surrender such shares, and do not properly withdraw such surrender, in the exchange offer through which the Divestiture will occur, will be entitled to receive the ACG Shares and consequently be shareholders of ACG upon the occurrence of the Divestiture.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements generally include statements that are predictive in nature and depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, and include words such as "believes," "plans," "anticipates," "projects," "estimates," "expects," "intends," "strategy," "future," "opportunity," "may," "will," "should," "could," "potential," or similar expressions. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any of them publicly in light of new information or future events. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement as a result of various factors. More information, including potential risk factors, that could affect the Company's business and financial results are included in the Company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including, but not limited to, the Company's Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K. All filings are available at www.sec.gov and on the Company's website at hyperscaledata.com.
Bitcoin (BTC USD) fell about -0.5% to about $85,800 after sellers rejected a move above $87,000 for the third time since September 23. The setback came as Strategy bought 334 BTC and Strive added 2,000.
This creates a clear contrast: corporate accumulation continues, but Bitcoin’s price has not yet turned that demand into a confirmed breakout.
Strive acquired 2,000 $BTC for $169M at an average cost of $84,422 per bitcoin, bringing total holdings to ₿29,462.
61.5% of capital raised came from SATA, with warrants generating $56.7M.
Today’s 8-K also highlights key metrics and KPIs through 3Q26.$ASST $SATA pic.twitter.com/HS4ADPQ8mJ
— Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) October 5, 2026
Those purchases matter as evidence that both companies are still directing capital toward Bitcoin. They do not guarantee that enough buyers will step in at $87,000 to absorb the sellers waiting there.
The immediate test is technical; the larger question is whether corporate buying can persist without adding financing and shareholder risks.
Why Does Bitcoin Keep Rejecting $87K Even Amid Continued Corporate Buying? $BTC is hovering around the $86,000 level.
Until Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, every upside rally will be capped. pic.twitter.com/Uh2B84nHCs
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 6, 2026
BTC USD hit resistance just above $87,000 on October 5 and traded around $86,000 on the morning of October 6. This level has capped rallies multiple times since September 23, indicating a significant resistance zone. Notably, Bitcoin has formed higher local lows, suggesting that buyers are stepping in, but it hasn’t generated enough momentum to break through the resistance.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that Bitcoin is nearing the apex of a triangle pattern, which could lead to increased volatility, although it doesn’t predict the direction of the breakout. Meanwhile, the overall crypto market dipped to approximately $2.93 trillion, just below a resistance level identified at $2.95 trillion.
While the Nasdaq 100 hit a record and the S&P 500 neared an all-time high, Bitcoin faced pressure as interest rates climbed slightly. Other major cryptocurrencies also struggled, with Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin falling 1-2%, while ADA gained 11%. The market reflects a mix of constructive short-term signals and ongoing resistance, so traders need confirmation through price action.
EXCLUSIVE: Trade Cardano and Earn $10 USDC Via Binance Sign-Up
Corporate BTC USD Buying is Real, but Here is Why Funding Matters
(SOURCE: CoinGecko)
Strategy and Strive recently acquired 2,334 BTC USD, signaling corporate demand but not necessarily indicating that market selling has ceased. Strategy’s purchase of 334 BTC brought its total to 848,000 BTC, funded by approximately $28.7M from Class A common stock sales. This financing model highlights that increasing Bitcoin holdings may dilute existing shareholders.
Strive’s purchase of 2,000 BTC raised its holdings from 27,462 to 29,462 BTC, reported at around $169M, primarily funded through its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (SATA). This structure prioritizes investor dividends and adds complexity to Strive’s Bitcoin strategy.
Additionally, Strive has a $500M facility for possible SATA repurchases, which could affect future financing costs. The different funding approaches affect dilution and cash reserves. Consequently, buying shares in a Bitcoin treasury company carries different risks than holding BTC directly, as share prices can be influenced by financing decisions and corporate structure.
EXCLUSIVE: Earn $50 With EdgeX and Enter $300K Prize Draw
DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2026
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Alex Ioannou
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Alex is a seasoned cryptocurrency trader and market analyst with over seven years of active experience in the digital asset space. Since entering the markets in 2017, Alex has specialized in identifying emerging "meta" trends and high-volatility narratives. Notably, Alex... Read More
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Bitcoin remained close to $86,000 on Monday after experiencing renewed buying activity in the spot market and a notable contraction in futures open interest over the past week. These developments are highlighted in Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report, which covers the week ending October 4.
Derivatives market sees reduced activityFutures open interest for Bitcoin declined from $38.0 billion to $36.6 billion last week, which marks a $1.4 billion drop. Open interest represents the total value of active futures contracts and serves as an indicator of traders’ market exposure. The decrease signals a cooling in speculative positioning that had built up during Bitcoin’s price breakout two weeks prior.
Options open interest also fell following the quarterly expiry, further underscoring the reduction in derivatives market activity. Last Monday saw significant selling in perpetual futures leading to a price dip, but this pressure faded as the week progressed.
Not all participants retreated, however, as long-side funding payments in perpetual futures climbed from $926,400 to $1.5 million, indicating continued appetite for leveraged long positions.
Futures open interest dropped to $36.6 billion, returning to Glassnode’s statistical range but staying near its upper limit. Demand for bullish exposure in perpetual contracts increased, as seen in higher funding rates.
Spot trading activity showed increased buyer presence. The cumulative volume delta, which tracks the balance between buyer- and seller-initiated trades, swung from negative $102.8 million to positive $33.2 million. This signals that buyer-driven trades outpaced seller-driven ones during the week, even if it does not directly measure new capital inflows.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand remained in positive territory, with net inflows for the week. Nevertheless, the magnitude of these inflows diminished compared to the surge seen previously, and ETF trading volumes hovered near the lower end of historical ranges.
On-chain metrics reflect active market environmentSeveral on-chain measures showed heightened Bitcoin network activity. Glassnode’s Hot Capital Share, which tracks the portion of capital that has recently moved, increased from 18.9% to 19.5%, suggesting active capital rotation.
The ratio of supply held by short-term holders compared to long-term holders climbed from 13.7% to 14.2%. In Glassnode’s methodology, coins held for less than 155 days are classified as short-term, while those held longer are long-term. Typically, short-term holders are more likely to sell during periods of volatility, affecting price dynamics.
Mini dictionary: Hot Capital Share, an on-chain indicator tracking the proportion of coins or capital that have recently moved, often used to measure investor activity and market sentiment shifts.
MetricPrevious ValueCurrent ValueFutures open interest$38.0 billion$36.6 billionSpot cumulative volume delta-$102.8 million+$33.2 millionHot Capital Share18.9%19.5%Short-term / Long-term holder ratio13.7%14.2%Network activity remained robust, as active addresses, fee levels, and transfer volume all exceeded their high bands. The monthly change in realized cap stayed well above average, reflecting consistent inflows of new capital into the market.
Profitability indicators stayed elevated as well. Nearly 75% of Bitcoin’s supply was in profit, according to Glassnode, and both unrealized gains and realized profit-taking among short-term holders were well above historical averages.
Active on-chain indicators, including the ETF MVRV ratio, showed the average ETF investor holds a substantial unrealized profit, while most Bitcoin supply remains in positive territory.
Bitcoin was last reported trading at $85,987, representing a 0.17% gain over 24 hours. Over the past week, the price has climbed 2.64%, and it is up 7.54% compared to 30 days earlier.
MMF schválil Salvadoru okamžité vyplacení přibližně 138 milionů USD, přestože země překročila limit dobrovolné akumulace bitcoinu; výjimku podmínil ukončením dalších nákupů s výjimkou doložených darů.
After El Salvador's Extended Fund Facility was evaluated for the second and third time, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund approved an immediate payment of about $138 million to the country on October 1.
The verdict released 101.96 million Special Drawing Rights (equal to approximately $137.93 million (using the IMF exchange rate of SDR 1 = $1.352830) under a 40-month plan, about a $1.4 billion scheme that was approved in February 2025.
Payment was accompanied by a waiver. El Salvador broke a continuous performance condition that limited the government sector's ability to voluntarily accumulate Bitcoin.
With its "strong corrective measures and renewed commitments," the IMF offered financial aid. But there are nuances to the reality.
The Donation Loophole
The Bitcoin reserve of El Salvador has grown substantially since the initiative began with the International Monetary Fund.
In February 2025, when the EFF was adopted, the country's Bitcoin holdings were between 5,968 and 6,070 BTC. That amount has increased by more than 1,700 BTC by the end of September 2026, reaching 7,760 to 7,792 BTC. Depending on the exact snapshot used, the current valuation of the reserve ranges from $598 million to $660 million.
Public sector voluntary Bitcoin accumulation is consistently limited to zero in the initial program documents. Assets seized by law enforcement were expressly not included in that definition; however, purchases and mining operations were plainly covered.
In its defense, El Salvador stresses that the new coins did not come from the government but rather from private donations. The claim was supported by the statement published by the IMF staff on September 3, which confirmed that no funds from the government were used.
"No further Bitcoin accumulation is envisaged beyond the documented donations," the board stated in October, adding a new restriction and formalizing the waiver already in place.
This is not meant to be taken as a recommendation in any way. It is a small adjustment in terms of technology.
The IMF has acknowledged the significant transparency gap caused by the categorization of donations.
But this issue of the categorization of the people who donate Bitcoin to a country's government has not been resolved.
These concerns have not been addressed, and the International Monetary Fund has shown its concern by requesting more information about Bitcoin assets held by the public sector.
The Chivo Retreat
Although the Bitcoin waiver is receiving a lot of attention, the real change is the gradual dismantling of El Salvador's cryptocurrency framework by the government.
With the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, the government digital wallet Chivo underwent a major privatization push.
According to the International Monetary Fund, a private operator is now in charge, with the government having a minority interest and the responsibility of safeguarding client assets.
"Residual public-sector exposure should be fully unwound," stated Dan Katz, the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, who voiced his acceptance of the transfer.
This is a change from the original plan.
At the time of its inception, Chivo was touted as the go-to platform for Bitcoin transactions in El Salvador.
At first glance, nothing was amiss.
The failure of Salvadorans to use Bitcoin for their everyday transactions was acknowledged by President Nayib Bukele in 2024.
Not only did regulatory demands contribute to the wallet's demise, but there was also a mismatch between the product and the market.
But the state's departure was accelerated by the structural requirements set by the IMF.
Separating state-sector stablecoin operations from private-sector ones, the government has stated categorically that it does not intend to develop or operate any stablecoin wallet.
Macroeconomic Foundation
There is a more basic reason why the IMF is willing to ignore the Bitcoin breach: El Salvador's macroeconomic performance has been strong enough to handle the variance.
In 2025, real GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% from 2.6% the previous year.
Due to factors such as falling remittance growth and the effect of rising oil costs on demand, Fitch Ratings predicts that growth would decelerate to 3% in 2026.
Nonetheless, there is hope for improvements due to private investment momentum and continuing public infrastructure projects.
This year, El Salvador's Central Reserve Bank expects growth to surpass the 2.5% average seen over the prior thirty years, with a range of 3% to 3.5%.
The effort to reduce government spending has advanced.
With a primary surplus of $706 million (1.9% of GDP) in 2025 - a significant improvement from a primary balance of 0% of GDP in 2024 - the non-financial public sector was able to meet the IMF target and show improvement.
In contrast to primary expenditure, which fell by 1.8 percentage points, revenue rose by 0.8 percentage points of GDP due to strong growth and improved tax collection.
From 4.6% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, the entire NFPS deficit fell short of the "B" median of 3.1% of GDP.
According to Fitch, the trend of consolidation is expected to persist and reach around 2.4% by 2026.
The national debt remains elevated.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that El Salvador's general government gross debt would surpass the median among "B" countries at 84.5% of GDP by 2026.
The National Flood Insurance Program's debt is expected to decrease from around 90.2% of GDP in 2025 to 87.4% of GDP by 2026 and even further to 85.2% in 2027, according to Fitch.
Interest payments made up 18.1% of revenue in 2025, which was much more than the median of 13.7% for "B" categories.
As pension bond grace periods expire in 2027, this number is projected to rise even further.
Deferred Reforms
The Bitcoin waiver solves a short-term problem, but it does nothing to address the long-overdue structural changes.
Reforming pensions is of paramount importance.
The actuarial assessment that was issued in December 2025 showed that from 2024 to 2070, there would be a system deficit of 59% of GDP in present value terms.
The private sector would contribute 45.4% of this deficit.
It is expected that the Solidarity Guaranty Account, which is in charge of providing minimum pensions, will reach its limit by the year 2029.
By February 10, 2026, the administration has promised to unveil a plan for reform.
There was no proposal before the Legislative Assembly on that date.
By the end of December 2025, the federal government owed pension fund managers a total of $11.24 billion.
Midway through 2026, lawmakers are expected to introduce civil service reform, which aims to simplify the public salary bill and reduce about 1.5% of GDP by 2027.
That was still being thought about in September 2026.
Aligning public sector compensation with qualifications and productivity while preventing needless expansion in employment is the goal of the approach, which is being supported technically by the World Bank.
The political ramifications of these changes are substantial.
With over 90% support and 54 of the 60 parliamentary seats under President Bukele's control, El Salvador is well-positioned for the 2027 election cycle.
Constitutional changes in 2025 extend presidential tenure to six years and make it possible to serve a third consecutive term.
There may be less opportunity for politically contentious changes this year due to the election cycle, according to Fitch.
Energy Wildcard
Energy prices are a short-term financial worry that the markets might not be giving enough attention to.
El Salvador imports a lot of energy, specifically petroleum products, which account for about 6.4% of its GDP. As of April 2026, the price of premium gasoline has risen 21% and surpassed $4 per gallon.
In 2022, the government enacted subsidies and temporary tax relief of 1.1% of GDP in response to a comparable spike in prices.
The government has not announced any plans for similar steps in 2026, but Fitch warns that continuing pressures on energy prices would force a reaction.
The fiscal momentum is starting to lose steam.
The primary surplus for the first quarter of 2026 was $185 million, falling short of the IMF projection of $300 million and 0.3% of GDP.
Although tax income growth remained stable at 9%, current spending increased at a faster rate, reaching 11.4%.
An additional payment equal to half of the monthly income for workers earning up to $1,500, known as "Quincena 25," is the main reason for this increase in spending.
Fitch predicts that in the second half of 2026, with elections approaching and the likelihood of a prolonged oil shock, compliance with IMF targets may become more difficult to achieve.
What the Waiver Actually Means
The IMF has made it clear that they do not support sovereign entities' stockpiling of Bitcoin through the Bitcoin waiver.
El Salvador's macroeconomic policy is usually moving in the predicted direction, and the Bitcoin incident was small enough to be considered inconsequential.
This modification takes both of those factors into consideration. There is still a lot of focus on the donation route.
The accumulation limits will be put back in place if private donors' future contributions to the reserve cannot be clearly identified.
Although it has not specified the verification procedure to be used, the IMF has stated that it will thoroughly investigate the sources of new coins.
According to Bukele, the waiver ensures that the Bitcoin brand remains politically significant, even when the government's engagement in cryptocurrencies becomes less viable.
Chivo was privatized and there was no plan for a digital currency that is backed by the government.
As seen on-chain, the reserve is still there, but it is no longer used as currency but rather as a symbol.
What this means for other countries thinking about using Bitcoin is anybody's guess.
When program-wide success is strong, the IMF has demonstrated flexibility about minor infractions.
Nevertheless, it has also resulted in structural compromises that reduce the role of the state in crypto infrastructure.
No precedent for sovereign entities to freely amass Bitcoin has been established by the waiver. For planned withdrawal, it is a major precedent-setter.
SEC schválila společnosti Volatility Shares první americká 3× páková ETF na futures na bitcoin a ether. Fondy se však nezačnou obchodovat, dokud nenabudou účinnosti jejich registrační prohlášení S-1.
TLDR On October 2, the SEC greenlit six triple-leveraged ETFs tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, oil, and natural gas. The cryptocurrency products will gain exposure through regulated futures rather than direct coin holdings. Trading cannot commence until Volatility Shares receives effective S-1 registration statements. The issuer has not yet disclosed a launch timeline for the new products. Daily rebalancing means returns may diverge significantly from three times the longer-term asset movement. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the nation’s first triple-leveraged exchange-traded funds offering exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The regulatory green light came on October 2, 2026, following a rule modification filed with Cboe BZX.
🚨JUST IN: The SEC just APPROVED a rule change allowing 3x leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas from Volatility Shares.
The funds would use regulated FUTURES rather than holding the underlying assets directly.
They are NOT trading… pic.twitter.com/SMiqRONgV4
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 5, 2026
The approval enables Volatility Shares to bring six new 3x leveraged products to market. These offerings will track Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
The Bitcoin-linked product is anticipated to list under ticker symbol BITH, while the Ethereum-tracking fund will likely trade as ETHK.
How the Funds Will Work Both cryptocurrency funds will avoid direct ownership of digital coins. Instead, they’ll employ regulated futures instruments, including CME-linked contracts, to deliver approximately three times the daily percentage change of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
If the futures benchmark rises 1% in a single day, the fund should gain roughly 3%, excluding fees and expenses. Conversely, a 1% decline would translate to approximately a 3% loss.
Each fund rebalances its leverage at the close of every trading session. This daily reset mechanism is a defining characteristic of leveraged exchange-traded products.
Due to this rebalancing structure, the products are engineered to deliver triple the daily return exclusively. They’re not intended to replicate three times the performance over weekly, monthly, or annual periods.
Volatility Shares currently operates BITX, a 2x Bitcoin fund. The firm brings existing expertise in managing leveraged cryptocurrency strategies to these newly approved offerings.
Waiting on Registration Before Trading Begins Despite the SEC’s rule change approval, these funds remain unavailable for trading. Volatility Shares must still obtain effectiveness on its Form S-1 registration documents.
No confirmed timeline exists for this final regulatory step. The issuer has not publicly announced when either fund will become available to investors.
Market observers have highlighted risks associated with the long-term performance characteristics of these instruments. Daily rebalancing can produce counterintuitive results: a cryptocurrency that rises and then falls by equal percentages may still generate outsized losses for the leveraged fund compared to the underlying asset.
As an illustration, if Bitcoin climbs 10% and subsequently drops 10%, Bitcoin itself would decline roughly 1%. A triple-leveraged fund tracking these movements could fall approximately 9% due to compounding effects from daily resets.
A single-day plunge of approximately 33% in the underlying futures contracts could theoretically eliminate the fund’s entire net asset value. This vulnerability explains why these instruments are typically marketed toward short-term traders who monitor positions actively.
Other asset managers have pursued similar triple-leveraged cryptocurrency products. GraniteShares filed for 3x XRP funds earlier in 2026 but encountered regulatory obstacles.
This approval represents one element of expanded regulatory engagement with digital asset products throughout the United States this year. The SEC has also published guidance addressing staking receipt tokens and various digital asset frameworks.
Regulators have been examining rules governing adviser custody of cryptocurrencies and tokenized securities offerings. Submissions from OKX and ICE concerning tokenized NYSE equity shares have progressed under an SEC innovation pilot program.
In parallel developments, the Treasury Department has reversed course on earlier proposals to regulate crypto mixing services. The SEC has also explored potential innovation exemptions for tokenized securities issuances.
Currently, both the 3x Bitcoin and 3x Ethereum funds remain inaccessible to retail and institutional investors. Trading will only commence once registration statements receive formal effectiveness declarations.
Circle přidala Aave do své služby půjček krytých bitcoinem pro klienty Circle Mint, kteří tak mohou použít cirBTC jako zástavu pro půjčky v USDC i mimo Morpho.
Circle has added Aave as a lending option inside its Bitcoin-backed borrowing service for Circle Mint clients, according to The Defiant. The move extends a product that has so far run on Morpho alone.
How the service works Circle formally launched the product, called Digital Asset-Backed Borrowing (DABB), on September 21, 2026. It targets eligible institutional clients who want liquidity but don’t want to part with their Bitcoin.
The mechanics run in three steps. A client deposits native Bitcoin with Circle, which mints a token called cirBTC on a 1:1 basis. Each cirBTC is backed by Bitcoin held in reserve at Circle National Trust.
That token then serves as collateral in third-party on-chain lending markets. Against it, the client borrows USDC, Circle’s dollar stablecoin.
Circle is not the lender in this arrangement. Borrowing rates and available liquidity are set by the third-party protocols. Positions sit in smart wallets that customers control, and those positions follow each protocol’s own liquidation procedures.
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The service is not available to everyone. Customers based in New York are excluded, which limits the pool to institutions eligible under Circle Mint LLC.
From Morpho-only to a second venue DABB debuted with Morpho on Arc, Circle’s EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain. The product’s launch landed alongside the early operational rollout of Arc itself.
Aave was part of the plan from the start, but it wasn’t ready on day one. As of early October 2026, the Aave integration was still not functional. Its arrival now gives Mint clients a second place to post cirBTC and borrow USDC.
The early numbers Morpho’s cirBTC market gives a sense of initial appetite. Shortly after launch, market data showed nearly $18.86 million borrowed against a liquidity pool of $157.85 million.
The market set its liquidation loan-to-value threshold at 86%. Once a loan reaches 86% of the value of the Bitcoin backing it, the position becomes eligible for liquidation.
By October 2, 2026, Morpho deposits on Arc had surpassed $500 million. The cirBTC/USDC borrowing market accounted for a large majority of Morpho’s early activity on the chain.
What this means Adding Aave matters for competition between lending protocols. Morpho had the cirBTC market to itself, and that market drove most of its early Arc activity. A second venue means borrowers and lenders can now split between two protocols.
Circle is effectively the custodian and token issuer, while the lending outcomes depend on code and rules it does not control. An 86% liquidation threshold on Morpho leaves limited room in a sharp drawdown, and borrowers using Aave will need to learn that protocol’s parameters separately.
The New York exclusion caps the near-term reach, as some of the largest US financial institutions are based there and cannot use the service in its current form.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin’s Spot market is recovering from its drop-off in July. However, the overall recovery is minimal enough to confirm stronger demand. Binance led the recovery, with September volume reaching $50 billion from $42 billion in July.
Bybit followed at $19 billion versus $14 billion. Meanwhile, Kraken doubled its figures from $4 billion to $8 billion. The data suggests that traders are returning as Bitcoin’s [BTC] price continues to regain momentum.
However, the growth is being seen by most in a very minor way across all platforms.
Source: CryptoQuant More importantly, higher trading volume has not yet translated into the stronger demand needed to sustain Bitcoin’s long-term upside. As such, if Bitcoin’s Spot activity continues to accelerate, it should create a better foundation for potential long-term success.
Until then, the recent recovery is fragile, and therefore additional demand would likely need to enter the markets before prices move towards new highs.
Bitcoin faces a key liquidity test As Spot activity recovers, Bitcoin’s next move will also depend on how leveraged positions react to the price action movements. In fact, of these positions, the largest cluster sits near $90,000.
In this zone, forced short closures could turn a steady advance into a faster squeeze.
As a result, that makes the level more than simple resistance, as liquidations could add buying pressure once the price reaches it. However, there are other risks involved at lower price levels, including small clusters at $83,000 and $75,000.
If the price drops below these levels, aggressive closing of leveraged long positions may occur, adding additional selling pressure to the market.
Source: Glassnode Therefore, Bitcoin now faces liquidation-driven acceleration on either side. A break toward $90,000 could amplify gains, while losing $83,000 could quickly deepen the downside from here.
Bitcoin Tests $87,400 Resistance With liquidation zones poised for a potential sharp price move, Bitcoin’s price structure is showing where this pressure may be felt. After rebounding from the $84,000 level, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $86,248 at press time.
Since breaking above the $82,561 area, Bitcoin has maintained a higher-low structure while continuously approaching the ceiling of $87,400.
Sellers have several times pushed back on the resistance in the $87,400 region and therefore have been keeping Bitcoin tight within a range.
Source: TradingView However, each pullback found buyers at progressively higher levels and therefore preserved the bullish structure. The recovery again pushed toward resistance but was unable to secure a breakout.
Therefore, a sustained move above the $87,400 level could open a path for a move upward towards $89,000 and strengthen the path for Bitcoin towards $90,000.
Conversely, losing $84,000 would expose $82,561 as the next support.
Final Summary Bitcoin needs stronger Spot demand to sustain its recovery and support a move toward new highs. BTC remains bullish above $82,561, but a break above $87,400 is needed to strengthen the path toward $90,000.
Major US banks are showing heightened interest in Bitcoin exposure, according to Shan Aggarwal, Chief Business Officer at Coinbase. Aggarwal reported that recent regulatory changes by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could make it easier for financial advisors to custody Bitcoin on behalf of their clients, opening new avenues for institutional participation.
SEC rules and advisor opportunityThe SEC’s clarification of advisor rules is seen as a catalyst for traditional wealth managers to begin offering Bitcoin services to clients. Aggarwal explained that these changes would not only make it more straightforward for advisors to include Bitcoin in client portfolios but would also significantly broaden overall market access.
Coinbase, a leading US-based cryptocurrency exchange, currently serves as the custodian for the majority of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) available in the market. The company continues to focus on enabling secure, regulated access for institutional clients seeking crypto exposure.
Growing institutional demandAggarwal stated that large financial institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan are actively seeking robust Bitcoin infrastructure solutions. He emphasized the growing demand from banks and asset managers for reliable custody and trading services as they expand their cryptocurrency offerings.
He pointed out that, as regulatory clarity improves, asset managers and advisors are expected to allocate larger portions of client assets to Bitcoin, supported by infrastructures provided by firms like Coinbase.
He believes the advisor rule is set to “expand the pie for Bitcoin access,” as Coinbase delivers the critical infrastructure needed for institutions and clients.
As traditional banks deepen their involvement in digital assets, the demand for compliant and secure frameworks is becoming a priority for the industry.
Product expansion and stablecoin focusCoinbase has recently been exploring new opportunities in the fast-growing stablecoin sector. Aggarwal said the company sees a “trillion-dollar opportunity” in the use of stablecoins for payments and settlement. Partnerships with financial giants like Citi aim to bring stablecoin payment options to merchants and businesses worldwide.
The company is also introducing consumer-oriented products, such as the Coinbase One Card, designed to encourage everyday spending with crypto rewards, and expanding into collectibles and routine Bitcoin incentives.
In addition to Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins, Coinbase continues to assist clients with advanced blockchain tools, including integrating the Bitcoin Lightning Network to facilitate fast and affordable transactions.
Looking forward, Aggarwal suggested that AI-driven financial agents may use both Bitcoin and stablecoins for automated payments and settlements in the evolving digital economy.
Mini dictionary: Coinbase is a publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in the United States, known for its regulatory compliance and custody solutions targeting both retail and institutional crypto investors.
Broader adoption outlookAggarwal predicted that the next wave of Bitcoin adoption is likely to be driven by integration with mainstream financial services, use in everyday transactions, and continued development of digital asset products for both individual and institutional investors.
He acknowledged that regulatory developments will remain a decisive factor for future adoption, as the industry seeks consistent and clear policies allowing more participants to enter the market securely.
Large banks are “increasing BTC exposure” as the regulatory landscape evolves, with Coinbase positioning itself as the infrastructure backbone for the growing institutional segment.
As more traditional finance actors enter the digital asset space, the role of secure custodians like Coinbase is expected to become even more significant in shaping the industry’s infrastructure.
Donald Trump slíbil každému Američanovi 5 000 USD v případě, že republikáni získají většinu v obou komorách Kongresu; část této částky by mohla podpořit spekulativní poptávku po kryptoměnách.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to give every American $5,000 if the Republicans win both chambers of the Congress in upcoming midterm elections.
From an economic perspective, this injection of cash into the economy could be yet another catalyst for a rise in the value of risky assets.
According to the head of DWF Labs, however, the impact could be much bigger. As the post below illustrates, the proposed payout would be roughly 150% of the COVID-19 stimulus checks.
If even a slice of that liquidity finds its way into crypto, it could ramp up speculative demand and potentially catalyze another 2020-21-style risk-on cycle.
Source: X However, to see if history could repeat, it is worth looking at what happened during the 2020/21 cycle.
In December 2020, Bitcoin [BTC] climbed past its previous $20k high and then more than doubled to around the $42k level by January 2021.
This was driven by increased institutional demand, as firms such as MicroStrategy and Square acquired BTC while PayPal and others offered crypto services. In the first half of 2021, BTC climbed above $60k before eventually reaching nearly $69k in November.
Thus, if another wave of cash hits consumers and even a small part of it goes into risk assets, it could lead to a liquidity-driven demand wave.
The main difference this time is that institutional participation is much deeper, so fresh liquidity can have a bigger impact on Bitcoin’s upside if the overall risk-on setup stays intact.
Is Bitcoin’s rising demand really strategic positioning? Smart money accumulating Bitcoin at these levels can hardly be accidental.
Michael Saylor has once again sent out an “orange flag,” which usually serves as the first indication of a new BTC purchase. Besides, Wall Street isn’t backing off either.
BlackRock’s IBIT just added another $195.6 million in BTC, pushing its net accumulation to around $1.57 billion over the last month alone.
Meanwhile, the Fed is scheduled to inject $5.8 billion into the markets next week. Bitcoin has held above $80k for two consecutive weeks as buyers jump in at key support levels.
These are positive signs of strong institutional demand, as big players appear to be accumulating BTC during the consolidation phase.
Source: TradingView In short, this adds to the case that institutional participation in Bitcoin is far stronger than it was in 2020.
Back then, the initial COVID-19 stimulus provided eligible Americans with $1,200 per adult plus $500 per child and a further $600 per adult in late December. This served as a direct cash injection and a highly liquid risk-on environment for Bitcoin in its 2020-21 bull cycle.
Now, the proposed $5,000 payment per American suggested by the U.S. President Donald Trump would far exceed 2020 levels of infusion. So, if even a fraction of that liquidity flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets, it could become another demand catalyst to an already institutionally driven market.
Final Summary Institutions are still buying Bitcoin, keeping demand strong. Trump’s proposed $5k stimulus could bring fresh money into BTC and other risky assets.
The world’s largest digital asset manager, Grayscale Investments, is convinced that attempting to time the Bitcoin (BTC) market is quite often a fruitless endeavour.
In a recent publication titled “BTC’s Hidden Risk: The “Out-of-Market” Opportunity,” the company noted that multi-year returns are highly dependent on a short window of high performance days.
Timing Bitcoin is a losing game: GrayscaleCiting Blockchain media company ME Group, Grayscale says Bitcoin gave about a 225% return on investment (ROI) in the past 3 years, as compared to the less volatile Nasdaq, which gave 109%.
Source: Bitbo
However, most of the returns came from just a few days. Removing the top 5 days caused returns to fall to 95%, removing the top 10 days made returns dwindle to 27%, and removing the top 15 days led to an 11% loss.
Remove BTC's 5 best trading days, and that return falls to 95%. Those days can't be predicted, which is why consistent long-term exposure matters for an asset like Bitcoin.
Read more on The Stack:… pic.twitter.com/ee84IzwV1b
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 5, 2026 Quarterly returns and current price analysis Coinpedia previously covered how Q4 is one of the best quarters in the history of Bitcoin, while also noting that some of these quarters closed in loss positions.
Many traders now anticipate a bullish Q4, but Bitcoin is facing clustered resistance between $84,000-$87,000, with more hoops to jump at the $88,000-$89,000 range.
At press time, BTC was trading at $85,821, after slightly pulling back from the $86K hurdle.
The parting shot Grayscale concludes by saying long-term investment is the best strategy for assets like Bitcoin, which can experience massive price swings in either direction.
Additionally, while the most profitable days are few and unpredictable, missing out on them vastly and negatively impacts yields. This last remark further builds on the long-term strategy that Grayscale advises.
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Strategy's high-profile STRC preferred stock may once again open the door to an important line of capital for the Bitcoin treasury juggernaut to grow its cryptocurrency position.
The chart for STRC is one of the most important in crypto. Now that it is close to reclaiming the $100 level, Strategy could soon start announcing more major BTC purchases.
This is one of the most important charts in crypto right now $STRC is a vehicle used by Strategy to buy more Bitcoin Since May 2025 STRC has been trading below its $100 peg and is now just 0.6% away from it Every time STRC has traded at $100 or higher Strategy has bought BILLIONS in Bitcoin I think we’ll soon see it trading above $100
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— Sweep (@0xSweep) October 5, 2026 Why $100 is significantThe level is significant because it would open up a new source of capital for Strategy without issuing more MSTR common shares.
Strategy's STRC is a preferred stock with an annualized variable dividend of 12% at the $100 price level that Strategy has been trying to stay near.
Strategy has made clear it has no current intent to issue new STRC shares at less than par. While STRC has been below $100, Strategy has been engaged in share buybacks.
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Get STRC back to $100 and more, and that equation could change. Strategy could once again start selling the STRC stock through its at-the-market program, which had roughly $17.5 billion of remaining capacity as of Oct. 4.
And STRC proceeds could be used for general corporate purposes, which include buying Bitcoin.
A remarkable turnaroundSTRC spent time near the $100 level in May. In June, however, it experienced significant selling pressure. STRC moved from over $95 in mid-June down to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26.
From there, STRC bounced to the mid-$80s and then consolidated in July. The stock then topped $90 in early August and has advanced to a series of higher highs and higher lows in August and September. On Sept. 18, STRC hit $98.51. On Sept. 29, it moved up to $99.56. STRC was last traded at $99.41 as of Oct. 2, up some 40% from its June low.
Could STRC pave the way to billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin buying? That's not exactly the case. Reaching $100 doesn't automatically trigger Bitcoin buying.
Rather, when STRC is trading at or above $100, it makes it a more appealing source of capital for Strategy, based on its current policies.
With that being said, it is true that there is a history of STRC playing a role in funding extremely large buys of Bitcoin.
For example, Strategy's original issuance of STRC raised around $2.47 billion in net proceeds back in July 2025. Then, days later, the company announced the purchase of 21,021 BTC for about $2.46 billion.
Morgan Stanley, one of the largest multinational investment banks based in the United States, is rapidly advancing toward a key milestone in the Bitcoin ETF space. The firm’s spot Bitcoin ETF, named MSBT, has accumulated approximately 10,519 BTC as of this week, according to updated figures from blockchain analytics provider Arkham.
Rapid growth in Bitcoin exposureDespite recent volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, Morgan Stanley has continued to make regular Bitcoin purchases through its ETF. The bank’s strategic approach appears unaffected by unstable conditions, leading to consistent growth since the ETF’s launch.
Data released by Arkham shows that the fund’s holdings now stand at a value of about $903.86 million, distributed across a series of wallets connected to the ETF. This milestone has been achieved in just under five months following the fund’s introduction to the market.
Morgan Stanley’s steady acquisition of Bitcoin through its ETF has brought it within reach of the $1 billion benchmark, requiring less than $100 million more in Bitcoin to hit this target.
Industry analysts expect Morgan Stanley to surpass the $1 billion mark before the end of this month if the current accumulation rate continues. The bank’s persistent expansion of its digital asset exposure reflects growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and related investment products.
ETF launch and trackingMorgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, began trading on NYSE Arca in April. This move marked the bank’s direct entry into the competitive US spot Bitcoin ETF sector, allowing investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations without direct ownership of the asset.
Arkham was able to publicly identify the on-chain addresses linked to MSBT within just one week of the fund’s debut, enabling transparent tracking of the ETF’s Bitcoin reserves. Since then, observers have monitored its wallet balances to gauge the pace of institutional accumulation.
The rapid growth in Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF has drawn attention from both the crypto industry and traditional finance sectors, as the fund approaches a significant threshold in record time.
Achieving nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings within five months signals increasing institutional confidence in regulated cryptocurrency investment vehicles.
Mini dictionary: Arkham, a blockchain analytics firm specialized in on-chain data, provides tools for monitoring and analyzing cryptocurrency transactions and holdings across public blockchains.
Americká Komise pro obchodování s komoditními futures (CFTC) navrhla první specializovaná pravidla pro kryptotrh: předpisy Regulation CTX a CAM by vytvořily dobrovolný federální rámec pro burzy obchodující s bitcoinem a etherem.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled its first set of dedicated rules for the crypto market, dubbed Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM. The proposed regulations aim to establish a voluntary federal framework for exchanges dealing in Bitcoin and Ether. This move is part of the CFTC’s efforts to formalize oversight of crypto exchanges and spot markets, which have previously operated with limited regulatory guidance. The proposal remains in the early stages of federal review, and its full details have yet to be disclosed, marking a significant step towards regulatory clarity in the crypto sector.
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Key Takeaways The CFTC’s proposal appears to indicate a move towards regulatory clarity, which is consistent with increased confidence in crypto markets. Market pricing suggests that participants view this regulatory development as supportive of a possible increase in Bitcoin’s market value. The proposal is still under federal review, indicating that the CFTC is taking a proactive stance in the absence of comprehensive congressional legislation. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor the progress of the CFTC’s proposal through the federal review process, which could influence market confidence and pricing dynamics. Key developments to watch include any indications from the U.S. Congress on broader crypto legislation and potential responses from major crypto exchanges. Regulatory actions or announcements by the Federal Reserve could also impact market sentiment and pricing scenarios.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 1% — — View market → December 31 1.4% — — View market → December 31 2.1% — — View market → December 31 3.1% — — View market → December 31 8.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 35.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 17.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 7.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 55.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 26.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 16.5% — — View market →
The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of bitcoin are about to regain a fully bullish alignment for the first time since June 2025. However, the signal is not yet confirmed and its history shows that it can precede both a strong rise and a quickly interrupted move.
In Brief Bitcoin is nearing a bullish alignment of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The 100-day moving average still needs to cross above the 200-day average to confirm the signal. This setup differs from the classic “golden cross.” Historical precedents show widely varying performances after this signal. The 50-day moving average, near $79,500, remains a key level to defend. The bitcoin bullish signal is still to be confirmed The average bitcoin price over 50 days is already above its 100 and 200-day averages. Now a last crossover is missing: the 100-day average needs to surpass the 200-day to produce the expected alignment.
The three indicators move around very close levels, which may allow the signal to form quickly. Here is the configuration observed on October 5 :
50-day moving average: about 79495 dollars ; 100-day moving average: about 79493 dollars ; 200-day moving average: about 79539 dollars ; Bitcoin price: near 86000 dollars ; The last comparable alignment: June 24, 2025. The 100-day average therefore remains about 46 dollars below the 200-day average. Maintaining the price above recent levels should gradually raise this intermediate average, but a correction could delay or prevent the crossover.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, explains :
This crossover would restore the order: 50 days above 100 days, then 100 days above 200 days, for the first time since the previous alignment on June 24, 2025.
This bitcoin signal differs from the golden cross This configuration should not be confused with the classic “golden cross”. The latter forms when the 50-day moving average directly crosses the 200-day average. Bitcoin already produced this signal at the beginning of September.
The movement currently expected concerns the crossover of the 100 and 200-day averages. This would complete a structure in which the most recent average prices are all above older trends.
Technical analysts generally interpret this order as confirmation of a positive momentum over several horizons. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term buyers then benefit from a progressively higher average price.
However, this signal is inherently delayed. Moving averages are based on past prices. They validate a trend already underway rather than precisely announcing its starting point.
The BTC indeed rose by more than 40% in the third quarter, rising from its June lows to about 87000 dollars. “The latest signal confirms that the recovery has held,” says Vikram Subburaj. It alone does not allow assessment of the remaining potential.
Past alignments have produced opposite results Some historical episodes reinforce the bullish scenario. On October 27, 2020, bitcoin was worth about 13,600 dollars when its three moving averages took this configuration. The signal remained active until May 2021, during which time the price went over 64,000 dollars.
Another alignment formed in early November 2023. It held until May 2024, while bitcoin rose from about 35,000 to 73,000 dollars.
More recent precedents call for caution though. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, but the price rose only from about 106,000 to 112,000 dollars. The June 2024 alignment held only twenty days before a nearly 10% drop.
“The crossover strengthens the hypothesis of a trend, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” warns the Giottus CEO. According to him, price behavior after confirmation will reveal whether the structure becomes sustainable or remains a short episode.
Bitcoin must especially defend its 50-day average The real test will be around the 50-day moving average, near 79500 dollars. Bitcoin still trades well above it, but this gap can shrink quickly during a correction.
A bounce on this average would show that buyers continue to defend the recent trend. A lasting break would weaken the signal, even if the three-indicator alignment were meanwhile confirmed.
In the shorter term, the price still struggles to sustainably break through the 87,000 dollar area. The rise slowed as the US dollar index strengthened, which generally puts pressure on assets priced in dollars.
The market will also watch the Federal Reserve minutes on October 7, then US inflation on October 14. These events can affect bond yields and interrupt an otherwise favorable technical configuration. The future crossover would thus confirm the strength of the recovery underway for three months. It would constitute neither a guarantee of increase nor an autonomous buy signal.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Bitcoin has entered October with a stronger performance than its typical seasonal pattern, raising questions about potential market movements as leverage accumulates near important price ranges.
October Defies Expectation as Bitcoin Posts Early GainsCryptoQuant analyst Andrew Kamsky reported that Bitcoin’s first three days of October are historically the month’s weakest, with an average decline of 0.66%. In contrast, this year’s early October performance has exceeded expectations so far.
Bitcoin ended September at $83,574 and closed October 3 at $84,743, representing a 1.4% increase. Between the October 1 and October 3 closes, Bitcoin fell just 0.14%, beating the historical average drop for this period.
As of October 4, CryptoQuant estimated Bitcoin’s price at $85,132, maintaining a gain of 1.86% since the end of September.
September’s results also ran counter to usual patterns. Instead of the typical average 4.02% decline, Bitcoin gained 6.39% in September. Kamsky stated that this resilience has continued into the early days of October.
Despite the historical trend of early October weakness, Bitcoin closed higher in both September and the initial days of October, demonstrating resilience.
Key Liquidation Levels and Volatility PotentialAlthough the start of October has been calm, derivatives market data suggests that volatility may increase quickly if Bitcoin moves outside specific price ranges. Leading analytics firms CoinGlass and Glassnode have highlighted concentrated liquidity and potential for liquidations on both the upside and downside.
CoinGlass pointed to substantial liquidation levels at $87,600 above the current price and at $83,400 below, suggesting a tight trading band with significant potential for both upward and downward moves.
Glassnode’s research indicates the largest concentration of liquidation risk is centered around $90,000, but smaller clusters exist at $83,000 and near $75,000. This creates a relatively narrow trading zone where derivatives traders face meaningful exposure in both directions.
On October 5, Bitcoin traded around $86,000. Analysts warned that a break below $83,400 could expose the market to thinner liquidity, while a move upwards through $87,600 toward $90,000 could trigger a wave of short liquidations, potentially accelerating price action.
Price LevelLiquidation RiskPossible Impact$83,000–$83,400Downside clusterPotential for increased selling$87,600–$90,000Upside clusterPotential for short squeeze$75,000Lower level clusterFurther downside riskThese liquidity zones reflect the growing leverage in the market as traders position around key support and resistance levels.
Analysis from both firms suggests the next decisive move could be accompanied by a spike in volatility, as traders on both sides risk forced liquidations.
Long-Term Valuation and Market Cycle ContextGlassnode lead analyst AntiFragile noted Bitcoin’s price currently sits about 13% below its long-term average valuation, known as the Mean MVRV Price. This metric multiplies Bitcoin’s Realized Price by its long-term average Market Value to Realized Value ratio to estimate fair value based on on-chain investor behavior.
Mini dictionary: Mean MVRV Price, a valuation metric indicating whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its typical historical relationship between market value and realized value, offering insight into potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
According to AntiFragile, in previous market cycles, Bitcoin tended to see its strongest gains after closing above this level, and cycle tops historically followed more than a year later. However, there is no guarantee that historical cycles will repeat.
The combination of a strong start to October and heavy derivatives positioning implies that Bitcoin’s next move could be sharp, depending on whether it maintains upward momentum or falls through an important support area.
While past cycles offer context, current leverage and liquidity levels may create unique volatility risks as October progresses.
As traders and investors weigh the situation, they face a crucial question: whether Bitcoin can sustain its early gains and reclaim higher long-term valuation, or whether a shift in liquidation zones will invite fresh selling pressure.
Bitcoin treasury Strategy is back in the black after the rising price of the leading cryptocurrency gave the firm paper gains of $21 billion last quarter, its founder and chairman Michael Saylor has said.
The Nasdaq-listed company last week also spent $28.7 million on 334 bitcoins last week, according to a Monday filing. The firm’s stock (MSTR) jumped earlier trading hours in New York before dipping slightly; it was recently priced nearly 2% higher.
Bitcoin’s price shot up over 40% in the third quarter of this year, having its best three months in years.
Strategy reports a $21 billion gain on digital assets in Q3 2026. Last week, we acquired 334 $BTC and repurchased $176M of $STRC. As of 10/4/26, we hold 848,000 BTC and $5.7B of USD Assets. $MSTR https://t.co/jvwiJahdMm
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 5, 2026 The price of the leading digital asset recently stood at nearly $85,655, unmoved over a 24-hour period but up over 8% over a 30-day period.
Strategy added that it repurchased $176 million of its STRC preferred shares. As the world’s biggest corporate holder of bitcoin, it has 848,000 BTC, valued at around $72.6 billion at today’s prices.
The company’s stock has taken a hit since the price of bitcoin plunged at the end of 2025 and the first half of this year.
Investors buy Strategy’s shares to get heightened exposure to the cryptocurrency. They can also get paid a yield via its digital credit products.
Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy — slowed down with its bitcoin buys after announcing a program under which it may sell BTC from time to time to generate up to $1.25 billion in proceeds for the USD reserve, additionally fund preferred stock dividends and interest expenses or fund repurchases.
The company even this year had to resort to selling bitcoin. It has since defended the bitcoin sales, with Strategy CEO Phong Le telling investors that the company now has a “bullet-proof balance sheet.”
In the company’s quarterly earnings in July, Strategy posted a $8.22 billion loss. But Le reassured investors that the firm’s current paper loss was nothing to worry about.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Peněženky držící 100 až 1 000 BTC si během červnového propadu v roce 2026 udržely nerealizované zisky a v následujících měsících výrazně navyšovaly své pozice.
Bitcoin’s large holders are back in the green. Small wallets, meanwhile, held up through the June low better than they did during the 2022 bear market.
A drawdown that didn’t break anyone Bitcoin’s June 2026 low landed somewhere between $58,500 and $70,000, depending on the measure used. At that point, roughly 51.4% to 55% of the circulating supply was still in profit.
At the trough, around 10.2 million BTC were underwater before prices recovered.
The standout cohort was wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. These mid-to-large holders kept unrealized profits through the June drawdown. They then accumulated significantly in the months that followed.
Retail-sized wallets also avoided the deeper underwater positions that defined earlier downturns. Small holders did feel unrealized loss pressure. They simply did not capitulate in large numbers.
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The realized price line held Bitcoin’s price did not close below its realized price during the 2026 drawdown, a first in the tracked history of its bear markets.
Realized price works like a giant average receipt. It values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averages the result across the whole supply. If market price falls below it, the typical holder is sitting on a loss.
VanEck’s mid-2026 ChainCheck report noted a transition from early capitulation losses into an accumulation phase among larger players, with coins migrating from weak hands to strong hands.
Profitability returns as prices climb By September and October 2026, Bitcoin had pushed toward the $80,000 to $87,000 range. Profitability metrics improved across every cohort category as a result.
In September, single-day profit realizations hit approximately 25,700 BTC. Even so, small and mid-tier holders reportedly strengthened their positions through the period rather than heading for the exits en masse.
Why 2022 looks so different The 2022 bear market pushed holders much deeper underwater, and retail wallets were hit especially hard. In 2026, small wallets stayed profitable at the June low, large entities recovered quickly, and the realized price floor held.
What this means for investors Large holders appeared less inclined to distribute their coins during the downturn. The accumulation by 100 to 1,000 BTC wallets deserves particular attention, as this cohort continued buying after June, suggesting conviction rather than opportunistic flipping.
The sharp acceleration in profit-taking, highlighted by that roughly 25,700 BTC day in September, could signal caution ahead. Heavy short-term profit realization can trigger corrections, even in an otherwise healthy market.
Market participants will want to watch profit realization volumes, whale accumulation trends, and the distance between market price and realized price as key signals going forward.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) is coming off its best third quarter since 2017, but extending the rally may prove more difficult as Treasury yields above 5% offer investors an increasingly attractive alternative to risk assets, according to Delphi Digital.
In its latest weekly newsletter, Delphi highlighted Bitcoin’s 43% gain in the third quarter, followed by a third straight weekly advance last week. However, “the grind higher is happening against real resistance,” Delphi wrote, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike and surging Treasury yields, which have reached multi-decade highs.
“When a government bond pays over 5% risk-free, every risky asset has to work harder to deserve the money,” Delphi wrote.
Bitcoin has so far managed to overcome the hurdle, helped in part by growing interest in the so-called debasement trade, or the view that persistent government borrowing and currency expansion will erode the dollar’s purchasing power.
According to Vanessa Grellet, managing partner at crypto-focused venture firm Arche Capital, “the debasement trade doesn’t require low interest rates,” given investors’ growing focus on federal deficits and the government’s rising interest bill.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s price briefly topped $87,000 last week before correcting lower. It has gained more than 35% since mid-August, shortly after the US Treasury announced plans to double its long-dated debt buybacks to support market liquidity, targeting 10- and 20-year notes. Some investors viewed the move as an effort to ease strains in the bond market and contain borrowing costs. Those buybacks have since tripled in size.
Source: Weak jobs data changes rate outlook, for nowThe interest rate backdrop facing Bitcoin could become less restrictive after weaker-than-expected jobs data sharply reduced the odds of another Fed rate hike in October. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts of 80,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest nonfarm payrolls report.
The disappointing print added to signs that the labor market is cooling, giving the Fed more room to wait before raising rates again.
Even before the latest payrolls data, Fed officials had signaled they were in no hurry to act. Although policymakers penciled in one additional rate increase this year in their September projections, some officials have since urged patience.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said the central bank does not need to rush into another hike.
“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency,” Williams said in a speech last week.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now puts the odds of an October increase at around 24%, down from more than 75% a week earlier.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Americké spot bitcoinové ETF zaznamenaly za týden končící 2. října čisté přílivy ve výši 241 milionů USD, už potřetí v řadě. Nejvíc přidal BlackRock IBIT s 450 miliony USD.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $241 million in net inflows for the trading week ending October 2, 2026. That makes three positive weeks in a row.
BlackRock does the heavy lifting The headline number hides a lopsided week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in $450 million on its own, according to data compiled largely from SoSoValue, with additional tracking by Farside Investors.
That brings IBIT’s cumulative figure to $65.73 billion. It remains the clear heavyweight of the group, and this week it outperformed the entire category’s net total by a wide margin.
ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added a more modest $25.52 million. The fund’s cumulative total now sits at $1.4 billion.
Fidelity’s FBTC had the opposite experience. It posted the largest outflows of the week, shedding $168 million, though its cumulative asset base still stands at $10.9 billion.
Do the arithmetic and something stands out. IBIT and ARKB together brought in more than the week’s net total, even after FBTC’s losses, which implies the remaining funds were net negative as a group.
The bigger picture: assets, market share and a rebound Total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $108.89 billion. That figure represents 6.42% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
Cumulative net inflows since the funds launched in January 2024 now total approximately $57.79 billion.
Earlier in 2026, the sector absorbed heavy redemptions, leaving a net outflow deficit of about $5.8 billion by mid-July. The recovery started in August and picked up speed in September. The week ending September 25 delivered a record inflow of $2.4 billion, and the positive trend has now carried into October.
Compared with that $2.4 billion week, $241 million is a step down. Still, the direction matters more than the size for a market that spent months watching money walk out the door.
What to watch from here The concentration in IBIT says something about how returning money behaves. If IBIT keeps absorbing the bulk of new money while others see redemptions, the headline numbers may overstate how broad the renewed appetite really is.
At 6.42%, ETF holdings are large enough that sustained buying or selling through these vehicles can influence the broader market’s supply and demand balance. Steady inflows could help support prices, but a return to heavy redemptions would put the same mechanism into reverse, as the first half of the year demonstrated.
For now, the data tells a fairly simple story. After a rough start to 2026, money is flowing back into spot Bitcoin ETFs, cumulative inflows have recovered to approximately $57.79 billion, and BlackRock remains the main beneficiary of that return.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Americké spotové Bitcoin ETF přilákaly za první dvě říjnové seance 292,5 milionu USD, přičemž BlackRockův IBIT sám získal 158,2 milionu USD. Příliv kapitálu podpořila slabší než očekávaná zpráva o zaměstnanosti v USA.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $292.5 million in net inflows during the first two sessions of October. The initial total of $134.4 million was incomplete because it did not yet include the $158.2 million allocated to BlackRock’s IBIT fund on October 2.
In Brief U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $292.5 million during the first two sessions of October. BlackRock largely dominates flows with $353.8 million captured by IBIT in two days. Inflows coincided with a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report. Bitcoin briefly exceeded $87,000 before returning around $85,000. Bitcoin ETFs come off a strong September marked by $2.65 billion in inflows. Bitcoin ETFs start October with two positive sessions The funds attracted $102.7 million on October 1st, then $189.8 million the next day once data from all issuers were integrated. This second estimate replaces the provisional total of $31.7 million announced before BlackRock’s flow release.
The start of the month thus reverses the movement observed during the last session of September. The updated data summarize the sequence :
$148.7 million were withdrawn on September 30 ; $102.7 million entered on October 1 ; $189.8 million were added on October 2 ; The total for the first two sessions reaches $292.5 million ; ETFs now show two consecutive days of inflows. The figure of $134.4 million came from adding $102.7 million from Thursday and a partial total of $31.7 million for Friday. This was not a calculation error but a snapshot taken before receiving IBIT’s data.
This difference reminds that daily flows can evolve several hours after close. Some funds publish their creations and redemptions later than others, making initial totals provisional.
BlackRock still dominates Bitcoin ETF flows On October 1st, IBIT attracted $195.6 million. This gathering offset outflows seen at several competitors, including $60.7 million for Fidelity’s fund and $31.4 million for Grayscale’s GBTC.
Bitwise lost $6.9 million, while ARK 21Shares, Invesco, and VanEck also ended in the red. Conversely, Morgan Stanley’s fund received $7 million and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust $14.6 million.
The October 2 session was much more concentrated. IBIT collected $158.2 million, Fidelity $29.3 million, and Morgan Stanley $2.4 million. Other products recorded no significant net movement.
Over the two days, BlackRock received $353.8 million. This amount exceeds the overall positive flow of $292.5 million, as part of IBIT’s subscriptions served to offset withdrawals recorded in other ETFs.
This concentration tempers market reading. Investors are returning to Bitcoin ETFs, but they largely favor BlackRock’s product. The movement does not translate into uniform progress across all managers.
The employment report supports bitcoin The flow return coincided with a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report. The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, against about 90,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
These figures reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Lower or stable rates tend to improve the attractiveness of risky assets by reducing the yield offered by bonds.
Bitcoin briefly exceeded $87,000 after the release before returning toward $85,000. This reaction shows investors welcomed the employment slowdown without triggering a sustained break above September’s peak.
ETF flows can support spot demand, as managers generally buy bitcoins to cover new shares creation. However, they alone do not explain the price, which also depends on the dollar, bond yields, and positions in derivatives markets.
ETFs come off a strong September Bitcoin ETFs had received about $2.65 billion in September, their best monthly total in several months. A series of nine positive sessions starting September 17 notably generated more than $3 billion before the September 30 withdrawal.
The third quarter ended with nearly $6.34 billion in inflows. This gathering allowed 2026 flows to return slightly positive after a deficit close to $5.8 billion observed in mid-July.
The positive start to October fuels the narrative of “Uptober”, a nickname for the month due to bitcoin’s historical performances. “Traders currently estimate that the upside potential exceeds the downside,” said Stephen Wundke, strategy director at Algoz.
However, this seasonality does not constitute a forecast. The next test will come on October 14 with U.S. inflation, then on October 28 with the Fed decision. Continued inflows will depend as much on these data as on the month’s favorable reputation.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
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Michael Saylor zveřejnil další graf nákupů Strategy a znovu tím vyvolal spekulace o nové koupi Bitcoinu. Oficiálně ale nebyla potvrzena žádná další transakce.
Michael Saylor has reignited speculation about a new bitcoin acquisition by Strategy. Indeed, he published on October 4 a chart tracing the company’s purchases. However, his publication does not represent an official announcement. Only an official statement from the group will confirm a new transaction.
In brief Michael Saylor reignites speculation about a new Bitcoin purchase by Strategy. No additional purchases have yet been officially confirmed. Saylor’s two previous messages preceded new acquisitions. Strategy now controls more than 4% of the maximum Bitcoin supply. Continuation of purchases depends on Bitcoin price and financing conditions. A new bitcoin purchase by Strategy remains to be confirmed By sharing his chart dotted with orange points, Michael Saylor specified: “more orange than ever”. Each dot represents a bitcoin purchase already published by Strategy.
Such an announcement resembles the messages that preceded the group’s last two acquisitions. It therefore fuels the hypothesis of a new transaction, without providing amounts, periods, or purchase prices.
The latest officially available figures are :
Strategy owned 847,666 BTC as of September 27 ; Their purchase cost was approximately 63.95 billion dollars ; The average price was 75,437 dollars per bitcoin ; The group had completed 116 acquisition transactions ; The portfolio value approached 72.29 billion dollars on the shared chart. At the current price, the unrealized gain approached 8.1 billion dollars. However, this estimate can fluctuate rapidly with the bitcoin price and does not constitute a realized gain as long as the assets remain unsold.
The two previous messages indeed announced purchases Michael Saylor regularly uses his Sunday publications to prepare the market for an official communication. On September 20, he had released a first message while the group owned 845,050 BTC.
The very next day, the company announced the acquisition of 950 bitcoins for 75.7 million dollars. The average price of this transaction reached 79,670 dollars per unit, which raised Strategy’s reserves to 846,000 BTC.
A week later, the same scenario occurred. On September 27, Saylor wrote “even more orange” by publishing a new version of his chart. The next day, the group confirmed the purchase of 1,665 BTC.
This second transaction represented 142.7 million dollars. The bitcoins were acquired between September 21 and 27 at an average price of 85,681 dollars, including fees and expenses.
This repetition reflects the expectations triggered by the new message. However, it does not confirm that a purchase has already taken place. The group would also use this announcement to remind its cash strategy or maintain attention around its stock.
Strategy’s bitcoin purchase relies on its share issuances The net proceeds from ordinary share sales allowed Strategy to finance its latest purchase. Such a method allows the company to raise capital without immediately using its operating cash nor immediately incurring new debt.
However, it carries a cost for the group’s shareholders. Whenever the company issues new shares, their participation in the capital can be diluted. This operation creates value per share only if the bitcoin’s evolution and the financing conditions compensate for this dilution.
Strategy now combines several instruments to feed its reserve. The group can sell ordinary shares, issue preferred securities, or use part of its cash. This structure gradually transforms the company into a financial vehicle exposed to bitcoin.
As of September 27, Michael Saylor’s group also held a reserve of 5.02 billion dollars intended notably for the payment of preferred dividends and debt interests. An additional billion dollars remained available for its treasury operations.
These reserves show that the group does not automatically dedicate all its resources to bitcoin purchases. It must also cover its financial obligations and preserve its ability to withstand a prolonged market downturn.
Strategy now holds more than 4% of bitcoins With 847,666 BTC, Strategy controls a little more than 4% of the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins. The company thus remains, by far, the largest publicly traded crypto holder.
This concentration gives each new operation an impact that goes beyond its own balance sheet. Strategy’s purchases reduce the amount of bitcoins immediately available on the market, even if their direct impact on the price also depends on the daily trading volume.
The average price of 75,437 dollars now represents an important benchmark for the group. A sustained drop below this level would reduce the value of its portfolio relative to its historical cost. It could also complicate future fundraising if the Strategy share lost part of its premium over its assets.
Conversely, a rise in bitcoin mechanically improves the value of reserves and can facilitate new financing. However, this mechanism remains market-dependent and does not guarantee that every issuance of securities will benefit shareholders.
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Peter Schiff says MicroStrategy has pulled its Stretch (STRC) preferred stock back toward its $100 par value. However, he argues the company has lost the issuance channel that funded its Bitcoin purchases.
Even so, Strategy has kept adding Bitcoin, funding its latest purchase with proceeds from common stock sales.
Schiff Credits Buybacks and a Bitcoin Rebound for STRC’s RecoverySchiff, a longtime Bitcoin critic, made the case on his October 2 podcast. He said STRC trades near $99.4, a recovery he admitted surprised him.
MicroStrategy Stretch (STRC) Stock. Soure: TradingViewHe credited Strategy’s weekly STRC buybacks and Bitcoin’s rally for the move. Schiff said that rally may have restored some confidence in the stock or triggered short covering.
The preferred stock had sunk to about $75 earlier this year, which CEO Phong Le blamed on unexpected leverage.
Referring to Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Schiff argued that the rebound has not reopened Strategy’s key funding route.
“There’s no way that he’s going to be able to start selling more Stretch; that means he’s not going to be able to raise money to really start buying more Bitcoin,” Schiff said.
He added that Strategy has raised enough cash to keep paying STRC dividends a little longer before it runs out. However, he said the company no longer has the machinery to buy more Bitcoin.
Saylor, for his part, pointed to calmer trading in the stock. He said STRC’s 30-day historical volatility stood at 9% as of October 2. That put it below the 10% reading for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
A milestone for Digital Credit: $STRC’s 30-day historical volatility is now 9%, below $SPY. We’re harnessing the power of Bitcoin while reducing price volatility for income investors. This is what financial engineering should do. pic.twitter.com/Jka7oOesa1
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 3, 2026
Common Stock Has Funded Most of Strategy’s Bitcoin Buys Since MayStrategy’s weekly filings support part of Schiff’s argument. The company last sold STRC through its at-the-market program between May 11 and 17, raising about $1.95 billion.
Its remaining STRC capacity has held at about $17.51 billion in every filing since, meaning no further shares were sold.
Strategy then paused Bitcoin buying for 10 weeks over the summer, selling coins instead to fund dividends and STRC buybacks. When it resumed in late August, it relied on other funding sources.
It sold class A common stock (MSTR) to fund 4,603 BTC that week and 1,665 BTC in late September. In between, it spent $75.7 million from its USD Cash account on 950 BTC.
Common stock proceeds also flow back into STRC. Between September 21 and 27, Strategy used $103.5 million from MSTR sales to repurchase STRC shares.
Strategy also held a $5.02 billion USD Reserve as of September 27. The company says the pool is meant to support preferred dividends and debt interest.
Schiff expects Bitcoin to roll over once tech stocks pull back. Strategy usually reports purchases on Mondays, so its next filing will show whether common stock sales keep funding its buys.
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Bitcoin (BTC) enters a historically strong month facing four pressures. Thin liquidity, weaker ETF demand, the Iran war, and a Mt. Gox deadline weigh on it.
The largest cryptocurrency has closed higher in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, with a median gain of 12.73%, Coinglass data shows. So far this month, BTC is up 1.98%
Bitcoin (BTC) Monthly Price Returns. Source: CoinglassStablecoin Supply Is Refilling But SlowlyAnalyst Darkfost said too little liquidity is reaching the crypto market. The stablecoin market cap has lost $14 billion since May, pointing to sizable outflows.
Supply has recovered $4 billion since September, lifting the total to about $270 billion. Still, Darkfost called the rebound too timid to push Bitcoin to new highs.
“Even though the trend now appears to be reversing, it remains too timid, and more will be needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs,” he wrote.
Stablecoin Market Cap. Source: X/DarkfostLarge holders are adding capital, though cautiously. Wallets sending over $1 million in stablecoins to Binance lifted their 30-day inflows to $30.5 billion. A little over a month earlier, the figure stood at $21.7 billion.
That marks a rise of over 40%. However, the same group sent more than $61 billion at its October 2025 peak, nearly double the current level.
“This behavior is probably torn between Bitcoin’s seasonality, with a highly anticipated October, and an environment marked by conflict, inflation, and the relentless rise in bond yields,” the analyst added.
ETF Buyers Have Stepped BackInstitutional demand has cooled as well. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow in almost a year.
Inflows then shrank for 5 straight sessions, slipping to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds posted $148.69 million in net outflows, ending a 9-day inflow streak, BeInCrypto reported.
Flows returned to positive territory on October 1, with $102.67 million in net inflows, SoSoValue data shows. However, the funds took in only $51.25 million across the 4 sessions from September 28 to October 1. In the prior week, they drew $2.39 billion.
Trading activity has thinned too. Daily value traded across the 12 funds fell from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.
Iran War Headlines Whip Bitcoin Both WaysThe conflict Darkfost flagged has already moved Bitcoin’s price. On October 2, BTC rallied toward $87,000 before a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz erased the gain.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto MarketsOil prices barely moved on the news, while crypto markets reacted sharply. That strike marked the sixth tanker attack in a week. Meanwhile, Washington has sent 2 more Patriot missile batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy sites, Axios reported. The US is also sending more warships and troops ahead of a possible return to war.
Meanwhile, Iran said the strait stays closed until the US meets 7 conditions from a June deal. Because Bitcoin trades around the clock, it absorbs weekend war news before stocks and oil reopen.
The pressure could build later in the month. US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November 3 midterms.
Peace signals have moved Bitcoin the other way. It climbed past $81,000 when Trump weighed ending the war. With Hormuz still shut, each new strike or ceasefire signal could swing BTC in either direction.
Mt. Gox Faces Its October 31 DeadlineThe final pressure lands at month-end. Mt. Gox’s labeled wallets held 34,387.51 BTC, worth $2.88 billion, as of the latest data from Arkham.
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Holdings, Source: ArkhamUnder the current court-approved deadline, the trustee must finish creditor repayments by October 31. Last year, it announced the extension on October 27, 2025, just 4 days before the cutoff.
That pattern leaves 2 outcomes. Another extension would keep the coins off the market, while distributions could hand creditors BTC they may sell.
Seasonality has also slipped before. Bitcoin fell 3.69% in October 2025, its first losing October since 2018. ETF flows and stablecoin supply will show whether fresh capital arrives before the Mt. Gox decision.
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MMF schválil okamžité uvolnění zhruba 138 milionů USD pro Salvador v rámci programu v hodnotě 1,4 miliardy USD, i přes nesplnění některých kritérií včetně akumulace bitcoinů. Fond udělil výjimky po nápravných krocích a nových závazcích.
The International Monetary Fund approved the immediate disbursement of about $138 million to El Salvador under the country’s $1.4 billion financing program, despite some performance criteria being missed.
The IMF’s Executive Board completed the second and third reviews under El Salvador’s 40-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement on Thursday, it said in a press release.
While certain performance criteria were not met, including on the Bitcoin accumulation front, the IMF granted waivers “based on strong corrective measures and renewed commitments.”
The agency noted that El Salvador has made progress in financial sector reforms, fiscal transparency, AML/CFT reforms and the transfer of majority ownership and control of the government Chivo Bitcoin wallet to a private operator.
“Efforts will continue to reduce the state’s involvement in Bitcoin-related activities, strengthen crypto‑asset regulation and governance, and enhance transparency regarding public-sector crypto‑asset holdings,” the IMF said, adding: “No further Bitcoin accumulation is envisaged beyond the documented donations.”
Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 4 that El Salvador used no public resources to accumulate Bitcoin after the first review of its IMF financing program in June 2025, according to the lender.
The IMF said documents supplied by Salvadoran authorities verified that the accumulation came from private donations. According to the lender, the increase in El Salvador’s holdings therefore did not reflect additional Bitcoin purchases financed with government resources.
The IMF also said majority ownership and operational control of the Chivo wallet had been transferred to a private operator, while the government retained a minority stake and custodial responsibilities.
The explanation addressed how El Salvador’s holdings grew after the first review, when the country said in November 2025 that it had acquired 1,090 BTC worth $100 million, renewing questions about compliance with its $1.4 billion IMF program.
Magazine: Exchanges reporting crypto gains to IRS becomes tax nightmare
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Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to around 2.68 million BTC, their lowest level since 2023 according to CryptoQuant data. At the beginning of 2024, they were still close to 3.2 million BTC. The decline continued despite strong price fluctuations, until the 2025 rally and then the 2026 pullback. Less Bitcoin therefore remains directly available on trading platforms. An interesting signal, but not automatically bullish.
In Brief Exchanges now hold about 2.68 million Bitcoin. Reserves were still close to 3.2 million BTC at the start of 2024. The decline reduces the immediately available supply without guaranteeing a price increase. 2.68 Million Bitcoin Remain on Exchanges The trend is not new this week. Since spring, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges had already fallen to their lowest level since 2023. Nearly 100,000 BTC then left Binance, OKX, and Gemini in less than three months.
The movement continues. According to CryptoQuant, monitored platforms now hold about 2.68 million BTC. The “Exchange Reserve” indicator counts bitcoins in wallets identified as belonging to exchanges. A drop means that some coins leave these addresses to go elsewhere: personal wallet, custody service, institution, OTC structure, or another on-chain address.
At the start of 2024, the same indicator had reached about 3.2 million BTC while Bitcoin was still trading below $70,000.
Since then, the market has experienced several phases. Bitcoin surpassed $73,000 in 2024. It then reached a peak above $126,000 in 2025, before suffering a much larger correction in 2026. Exchange reserves have continued to follow an overall downward slope.
The price returned to around $85,000 in early October. That was not enough to massively send BTC back to platforms. On October 3rd, the overall reserve remained close to 2.68 million. For a holder who does not plan to sell, leaving their bitcoins on a platform is not essential. Moving to a personal wallet also reduces risk directly linked to the exchange.
Bitcoin in 2022 The events of 2022 had already accelerated this habit. But 2026 adds other players. US spot ETFs, publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin, and institutional custody services have profoundly changed how BTC circulate. A coin leaving Binance or Coinbase does not necessarily end up in a private individual’s personal wallet.
The contrast is visible with Binance. While the overall reserve drops, the largest crypto platform experienced the opposite movement in September. Its reserves reached about 702,900 BTC on September 19, according to CryptoQuant data cited by U.Today. It was their highest level of the year.
A platform can therefore fill up while the overall market empties. This is precisely what prevents reducing the figure of 2.68 million to a simple phrase like: “everyone is buying Bitcoin.” However, the underlying trend remains clear. There are fewer BTC on monitored exchanges today than at the beginning of 2024.
Less Available Bitcoin Does Not Necessarily Mean Shortage On paper, the mechanism seems simple. When an investor wants to quickly sell Bitcoin, they generally send their BTC to an exchange. When reserves strongly increase, more coins can theoretically come to the market.
Conversely, when bitcoins leave platforms, this immediately available reserve shrinks. CryptoQuant even describes the Exchange Reserve as a direct indicator of potentially available supply on the sellers’ side. A durable drop is historically associated with shifts towards off-exchange custody and potentially lower selling pressure.
But the important word remains “potential.” This summer showed this well. In August, 28,000 BTC had returned to exchanges in less than three weeks. This rebound had erased much of the accumulated drop during previous weeks.
Bitcoin had not therefore immediately entered a big selling phase. Exchange reserves measure asset location, not their owner’s exact intention.
The case of ETFs further complicates the reading. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.65 billion net in September. It was their second-best month since October 2025. Institutional demand clearly rebounded while overall exchange reserves kept falling.
Yet, these funds do not operate like an individual opening Binance and immediately withdrawing BTC to a Ledger.
A significant part of their operations goes through institutional custodians and over-the-counter transactions. Movements thus do not always appear as expected in simple exchange reserve statistics.
Wallet Classification Analysis companies must identify which addresses belong to Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, or other exchanges. When a platform changes its custody architecture, creates new wallets, or moves assets between different structures, reading certain data can temporarily change.
This explains why absolute levels sometimes vary from one data provider to another. The signal remains useful. It simply should not be turned into a prediction. This caution is especially important today. Bitcoin just completed a very solid third quarter. The price gained more than 40% between July and September before settling around $83,000 to $87,000 at month-end. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant also noted profit-taking and some transfers back to exchanges.
Several movements coexist. Bitcoins overall leave platforms. Some actors send them back. ETFs attract capital again. Other investors take profits after the rally. The market does not move as a whole.
ETFs and Large Holders Change BTC Circulation The reserve decrease makes more sense when viewed over several years. Bitcoin’s market structure is no longer the same as in 2020 or 2021. US spot ETFs now hold a considerable amount of BTC. Companies have also accumulated significant reserves. Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate holder, owned 847,666 BTC at the end of September after buying 1,665 more bitcoins for around $143 million.
These bitcoins are not used to feed daily order books on exchanges.
They can remain immobilized for long. Private individuals have also resumed their purchases. In the third quarter, they accumulated about 107,000 BTC while funds and ETFs temporarily reduced their positions.
The situation changed again in September with the return of inflows into ETFs. This is probably the most interesting part of today’s market: several buyer categories can take turns without the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges rising sustainably.
This naturally fuels the idea of a “supply shock.” The scenario is known. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins. Some BTC are lost or inactive for years. Other bitcoins are in ETFs, company treasuries, or long-term wallets. If the quantity available on exchanges decreases while demand rapidly rises, buyers theoretically must offer higher prices to find sellers.
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BlackRock has expanded its position in the cryptocurrency market by adding $1.57 billion in Bitcoin to its portfolio over the past month, bringing its total holdings to 801,769 BTC. This increase follows a series of substantial inflows into the company’s flagship spot Bitcoin ETF.
Strategic accumulation amid positive momentumRecent data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that BlackRock has consistently acquired Bitcoin during most ETF trading sessions in the last month. The latest addition of $195.6 million worth of BTC followed a sharp rebound in Bitcoin’s price, which climbed above $84,000. This market uptick appears to have reignited institutional demand for the asset.
In light of this surge, a sequence of large transactions was observed, with Bitcoin moved in batches of 300 BTC from a Coinbase hot wallet to an address linked to BlackRock. These transfers were highlighted as part of BlackRock’s effort to bolster its Bitcoin reserves.
Arkham Intelligence data highlights that after the latest $1.57 billion in purchases, BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings rose to 801,769 BTC, now valued at about $67.87 billion based on current market prices.
Bitcoin dominance in BlackRock’s crypto portfolioBlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has continued to attract substantial capital, further strengthening the company’s role as a major player in the Bitcoin ETF landscape. The firm’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions reflect growing investor confidence in the asset class during recent market rallies.
The firm’s tracked crypto portfolio is dominated by Bitcoin, which makes up more than 87% of its total holdings. According to current data, Ethereum is the next largest component, accounting for $10.06 billion of BlackRock’s $77.93 billion in digital assets.
Bitcoin now represents the most significant portion of BlackRock’s holdings, while Ethereum trails as the second-largest position in its expansive crypto portfolio.
Efficiency and institutional demand shape new investor toolsAs institutions increase their exposure to crypto with moves like BlackRock’s latest purchases, rapid price changes driven by events such as central bank decisions or the listing of popular alternative coins reinforce the need for efficient portfolio management tools. In this environment, smart investors are seeking unified platforms to stay ahead. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, jumping between different apps for charts, news, and portfolio tracking is costing investors money. Smart traders are now utilizing privacy-first tools like CryptoAppsy to consolidate everything. Without even the hassle of creating an account, you get real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and critical macro data all on one screen.
With major players like BlackRock significantly increasing their exposure to Bitcoin, the wider market’s focus has increased on tools that offer a comprehensive and real-time overview of crypto assets, enabling both institutional and individual participants to navigate this rapidly evolving landscape efficiently.
On October 2, 2026, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission cleared Cboe BZX to list and trade six triple-leveraged exchange-traded products, including the first 3x Bitcoin and 3x Ether ETPs available in the United States. The approval order, Release No. 34-106577, was signed by the Commission’s Division of Trading and Markets under delegated authority. It is the first time U.S. regulators have approved triple-leveraged Bitcoin and Ether products, bundled in a single order with traditional commodity funds.
What the SEC approved Each fund is a series of the VS Trust, whose sponsor is Volatility Shares LLC; Wilmington Trust serves as sole trustee and U.S. Bank as custodian. The six funds: 3x Gold, 3x Silver, 3x Bitcoin, 3x Ether, 3x Crude Oil, and 3x Natural Gas. They list under BZX Rule 14.11(e)(4), which governs commodity-based trust shares. Cboe filed the proposed rule change on August 10 and it was published for comment on August 19; the Commission received no comments. The Commission found the proposal consistent with Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act, citing safeguards to promote fair disclosure, prevent trading without adequate transparency, and protect material nonpublic information.
How the funds will work Despite the “ETF” name, these are exchange-traded products (commodity-based trust shares), not 1940 Act funds. Each seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, equal to three times the daily performance of its reference commodity, measured against a benchmark of first- and second-month futures contracts. The funds invest in those futures alongside cash and cash equivalents that serve as collateral or margin. If those contracts become unavailable, the funds may hold later-dated futures, benchmark-linked ETFs and ETPs, or listed options. Because the funds reset daily, returns over longer holding periods can diverge from three times the commodity’s cumulative move.
Trading still waits on registration Approving the listing rule does not by itself start trading; the shares must still be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, and no launch date has been set. The move follows other SEC crypto-ETP rulemaking, including the agency’s approval of a Nasdaq Texas rule that added a digital-commodity definition to crypto ETPs. It also lands amid strong institutional demand for fund exposure, with spot Ethereum ETFs recently logging a third straight week of inflows.
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Blockchain analyst specializing in the regulatory impact of government policies on the crypto industry. Known for his thorough research and clear, engaging writing, Emmanuel provides insightful analysis on the latest trends, market shifts, and emerging crypto innovations. His work aims to educate and inform both novice and experienced readers, offering expert perspectives on the fast-evolving world of digital assets. With a passion for staying ahead of the curve, Ogwu is a trusted voice in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space.
Americké Bitcoin ETF zaznamenaly za období 28. září až 2. října čisté přílivy 82,9 mil. USD, zatímco z Ethereum ETF odteklo 118 mil. USD. Bitcoin tak prudce zpomalil z 2,39 mld. USD v předchozím týdnu.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded provisional net inflows of $82.9 million for Sep. 28–Oct. 2, while Ethereum ETFs posted $118 million in net outflows, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin’s reported weekly intake fell sharply from $2.39 billion in the preceding week.
Summary
Bitcoin ETFs added $82.9 million, with Friday’s BlackRock IBIT entry still pending. Ethereum ETFs lost $118 million after attracting $689.8 million in the previous week. Solana ETFs recorded $800,000 in net inflows, down from $188.1 million a week earlier. Hyperliquid ETFs added $3.4 million, while Zcash’s tracked fund lost $77.6 million. Farside Investors’ data showed Bitcoin ETFs recording inflows on four of the five trading days. Wednesday’s withdrawals reduced the weekly total, while Thursday’s intake was the largest positive session of the period.
Friday’s figures remained incomplete when checked on Oct. 3. Farside showed blank entries for BlackRock’s IBIT, ETHA and ETHB, so the Bitcoin and Ethereum weekly totals remain provisional.
Bitcoin ETF inflows fall from $2.39 billion Bitcoin funds opened the week with $31 million in net inflows on Monday, followed by $66.2 million on Tuesday. Wednesday brought $148.7 million in withdrawals before investors added $102.7 million on Thursday and a reported $31.7 million on Friday.
BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $292 million in net inflows across Monday through Thursday. Its largest intake was $195.6 million on Oct. 1, following $9.5 million in withdrawals a day earlier.
Fidelity’s FBTC posted $167.9 million in weekly net outflows, despite receiving $29.3 million on Friday. Bitwise’s BITB lost $38.6 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $54.6 million in withdrawals.
ARKB added $25.5 million over the week, and Grayscale’s BTC fund attracted $24.9 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded $9.4 million in inflows.
The preceding week, Sep. 21–25, delivered five consecutive positive sessions, including $999 million on Monday and $714.7 million on Tuesday.
Ethereum ETFs reverse the previous week’s inflows Ethereum funds began Monday with $17.1 million in net inflows before recording withdrawals during each subsequent session, according to Farside’s Ethereum figures.
Tuesday’s outflow was $2.8 million. Withdrawals then reached $59.6 million on Wednesday and $55.4 million on Thursday, followed by a provisional $17.3 million on Friday.
Fidelity’s FETH accounted for $74.1 million in weekly net outflows. Its largest withdrawal was $26.6 million on Wednesday, followed by $23.5 million on Thursday.
Grayscale’s ETHE lost $27.9 million, while its ETH fund recorded $11.2 million in net withdrawals. VanEck’s ETHV and Franklin’s EZET lost $6.9 million and $6.1 million, respectively.
BlackRock’s ETHA recorded $6.5 million in net inflows through Thursday, while ETHB showed zero flows over those four sessions. Both Friday entries remained blank.
The reversal followed $689.8 million in Ethereum ETF inflows during Sep. 21–25, when every session finished positive. Monday’s $270 million intake led that earlier week.
Solana ETF inflows shrink to $800,000 Solana ETFs finished the week with $800,000 in net inflows, according to Farside’s table, compared with $188.1 million in the preceding week.
Monday and Tuesday brought inflows of $7.7 million and $5.4 million. Funds then lost $12.5 million on Wednesday and $1.1 million on Thursday before adding $1.3 million on Friday.
Bitwise’s BSOL recorded $1.3 million in weekly net inflows. Grayscale’s GSOL added $5.4 million, while FSOL attracted $2.8 million.
VSOL posted $6.8 million in withdrawals, and MSOL lost $1.9 million. TSOL and SOEZ recorded zero flows throughout the week.
BSOL’s $9.7 million Monday intake was its largest positive session, while its $8.9 million Wednesday withdrawal was its biggest outflow.
Hyperliquid gains $3.4 million as Zcash loses $77.6 million Hyperliquid ETFs recorded $3.4 million in net inflows, Farside reported. Monday and Tuesday showed zero flows, followed by a $5 million Wednesday withdrawal and inflows of $5 million on Thursday and $3.4 million on Friday.
HYPG attracted $8.4 million over the week, offsetting $5 million in withdrawals from BHYP. THYP recorded zero flows. The group had received $9.3 million during Sep. 21–25.
Farside’s Zcash data showed $77.6 million in withdrawals from ZCSH, reversing the previous week’s $35.2 million intake.
The fund lost $8.1 million on Monday, recorded zero flows on Tuesday, and posted $30.2 million in withdrawals on Wednesday. Further outflows reached $12.4 million on Thursday and $26.9 million on Friday.
Absa has become Africa’s first bank to offer Bitcoin custody, with BTC making up the largest share of assets held through its institutional service.
Summary
Bitcoin is the main asset held in Absa’s custody service, according to its digital assets head. The bank launched its institutional custody platform on Sep. 21 using technology from Ripple. Absa plans to serve more client groups and African markets, subject to regulatory approvals. U.S. banks have received regulatory clarification allowing crypto custody and related customer services. Bloomberg reported on Oct. 2 that the Johannesburg-based lender is providing digital asset custody to institutional clients in South Africa, including asset managers, non-bank financial institutions and companies. The report identified Absa as the first bank on the continent to offer the service. Moneyweb Rob Downes, head of digital assets at Absa’s Corporate and Investment Banking division, said Bitcoin accounts for the largest part of the assets currently held.
Absa’s Bitcoin custody service starts with institutional clients Describing the assets held through the platform, Downes told Bloomberg:
“Bitcoin is the predominant asset in custody.”
The executive said the bank is also working with customers on other crypto assets they want held in South Africa, according to the report. His comments place Bitcoin at the center of the current offering while identifying client demand as part of the bank’s work on additional assets.
Beyond its initial customer base, Downes said Absa expects to extend custody to other client groups in South Africa and is working to bring the service to other African countries where it operates. Bloomberg reported that expansion into those markets would depend on the required regulatory approvals.
Absa’s product documentation states that the offering provides institutions with controls over digital assets, transactions and internal approvals. The bank describes custody as a service for protecting the private keys used to authorize blockchain transactions, with its banking governance and compliance framework applied to the platform.
In its Oct. 2 coverage, Bitcoin Magazine said Absa had not immediately responded to a request for comment.
Ripple technology supports Absa’s custody controls The Bitcoin custody reporting comes after the platform’s commercial launch. As crypto.news reported on Sep. 22, Absa’s Ripple-powered custody service went live on Sep. 21, almost a year after the companies announced their partnership.
In October 2025, Ripple announced Absa as its first major custody partner in Africa. The agreement covered technology for storing and managing digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets.
Explaining the system’s operation, Robyn Lawson, Absa CIB’s head of digital product for custody, said the bank combines Ripple’s software for sending transactions to blockchain networks with its own internal infrastructure. She identified security, governance, recovery and authorization controls as central parts of the design.
According to Lawson, keys and transaction authorizations are protected within secure hardware environments. She said the system derives private keys securely when needed rather than keeping permanently stored private keys, while cryptographic recovery processes and layered controls are designed to preserve access during disruptions.
For institutional customers, Lawson said losing access to keys can create operational, reputational and regulatory risks for both the business and its clients. She added that Absa would begin with core custody functions and develop further capabilities according to customer needs and changes in regulation.
South Africa recorded $36 billion in crypto activity In its September 2025 regional research, Chainalysis placed South Africa second in Sub-Saharan Africa by crypto value received, at about $36 billion between July 2024 and June 2025. Nigeria led the region with $92.1 billion over the same period, according to the firm’s Geography of Cryptocurrency report.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, Chainalysis reported more than $205 billion in on-chain value during those 12 months, an increase of roughly 52% from the previous year. The firm ranked the region third for growth, behind Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Within South Africa, the research firm attributed a more institutional market to the country’s regulatory framework and hundreds of licensed virtual asset service providers. Chainalysis said large transactions included activity linked to trading strategies such as arbitrage, while financial institutions were developing custody and stablecoin products.
Bitcoin accounted for 74% of fiat purchases of crypto in South Africa in the report’s centralized-exchange dataset, according to Chainalysis. The firm noted that the purchase analysis excluded informal markets, over-the-counter activity, and other transactions outside the tracked exchanges.
In its adoption-index methodology, Chainalysis also added an institutional activity measure in 2025 covering centralized-service transfers above $1 million. The firm said the change was intended to capture participation by professional investors, hedge funds, custodians and other institutional users.
U.S. banks have established custody services and regulatory permissions For U.S. institutions, bank-based crypto custody has an established precedent. BNY Mellon announced in October 2022 that its U.S. digital asset custody platform was live, allowing selected clients to hold and transfer Bitcoin and Ether.
BNY later expanded the assets and functions available through that platform. Coverage published on June 29 detailed its USDC minting and redemption services, alongside custody and transfers, giving institutional customers a route to convert dollars into Circle’s stablecoin and redeem it back into dollars.
Under U.S. banking rules, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency confirmed in March 2025 that crypto custody, certain stablecoin activities and permitted blockchain payment activities are allowed for national banks and federal savings associations. The agency also removed the requirement for those institutions to obtain supervisory non-objection before undertaking the activities covered by its earlier guidance.
In May 2025, the OCC clarified that banks may buy and sell assets held in custody at a customer’s direction. The regulator said banks may also outsource permitted crypto custody and execution activities, subject to appropriate management of third-party risks.
In Europe, Sep. 16 reporting detailed Deutsche Bank’s planned institutional crypto custody service for later in 2026. According to that report, the bank expects initial support for Bitcoin, Ether, USDC, EURC and EURAU, with the launch subject to regulatory completion, internal approvals, risk controls and customer onboarding requirements.
Kupci na Binance odstranili prodejní stěnu mezi 85 000 USD a 85 500 USD, čímž snížili krátkodobou rezistenci Bitcoinu. ETF od BlackRocku zároveň za den přidal 195,57 milionu USD.
Bitcoin buyers have removed a major sell wall at $85,000, reducing near-term resistance as the market’s attention increasingly shifts toward the next halving and institutional flows. According to recent order book data, the absorption of sell orders on Binance marks an important shift in short-term market structure.
Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Shapes Market NarrativeThe fifth Bitcoin halving is estimated to occur around April 2028 at block 1,050,000, halving the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. This event will slow the introduction of new Bitcoin into circulation. Historical cycles show that buying 500 days before and selling 500 days after each halving has produced strong returns in previous eras, although outcomes have varied.
Bitcoin completed four halvings since 2012, with the next event’s date largely dependent on the pace of block production. Analysts such as CryptoGoos continue to monitor performance data from these 1,000-day windows, while platforms like Bitbo offer detailed tracking of similar models. However, analysts caution that historical patterns do not guarantee future results, especially as new market participants drive changes in supply and demand.
The rising influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs represents a new dynamic in this cycle. These products open participation to a wider range of investors and could amplify the market impact of the programmed reduction in BTC supply during the next halving.
BTC’s on-chain performance between halving cycles has generated considerable interest, with variations in returns reflecting changing market and liquidity conditions from one era to the next.
Institutional Flows Boost Demand via BlackRock ETFInstitutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, highlighted by single-day inflows of $195.57 million into BlackRock’s ETF, as reported by Whale Insider. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, has provided traditional investors with new ways to access Bitcoin exposure, further diversifying market demand.
Glassnode research indicates that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1 billion in net inflows on two consecutive days in late September, before inflows slowed as the market moved sideways. The firm noted the importance of consistent inflows across several sessions to assess the durability of institutional demand.
The emergence of ETFs as a major market entry point for large investors means that both programmatic supply reductions and regulated product flows are likely to influence Bitcoin price trajectories.
Short-Term Resistance Clears as $85K Sell Wall FadesBuyers on Binance have effectively absorbed a significant sell wall between $85,000 and $85,500, an area identified as one of the market’s notable resistance levels according to Glassnode analytics. With these sell orders removed, less resting supply sits immediately above the spot market, altering the dynamic for future advances.
Glassnode’s latest market report states that Bitcoin’s True Market Mean remains near $77,200, and the short-term holder cost basis stands close to $73,300. Bitcoin continues to trade above both metrics, setting these values as reference points in the event of another pullback.
The firm observed that while overhead resistance has eased, trading volumes are subdued, suggesting that any sustained move upward would require greater market participation beyond the recent thinning of sell-side liquidity.
Recent buy-side activity above $85,000 reduces resistance and changes the order book dynamic, but broader volume will be essential for more significant upward movement.
Meme Token Activity and Technical Market MonitoringAs technical analysts monitor price consolidation between $84,000 and $86,000 and potential breakout formations, parallels emerge in other volatile corners of crypto. In the meme token sector, rapid internet-driven trends can drive multi-million-dollar trades virtually overnight.
Fomo App data highlights a notable case where a “Niu Lai” token trade turned a $99 investment into $370,000. This underscores the importance of tracking not only price levels but also investor behavior and timing. Fomo App aggregates token discovery, trading tools, social features, investor rankings, and trade notifications in a single service, allowing for closer observation of meme token momentum and investor strategies.
BTC’s Position Relative to Equities and On-Chain IndicatorsBitcoin has regained strength relative to the S&P 500, with Glassnode reporting that daily sessions where BTC outperforms the index rose above 50% in late September. This marks a recovery from June, when that figure fell to its lowest level in six years. The move signals renewed asset-specific demand, but analysts note that a persistent trend will be needed to confirm BTC’s independent momentum.
On-chain valuation metrics remain in focus as well. CryptoQuant analyst TraderGemin notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score stands above its 365-day moving average. This indicator compares current market value to realized value and, when above the yearly average, suggests long-term support for the market structure. A drop below this threshold could challenge current trends, so it remains an important reference for technical outlooks.
Outlook: What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Price?Bitcoin’s outlook hinges on interactions between enduring narratives—such as the 2028 halving and ETF adoption—and nearer-term shifts like the recent clearing of the $85K sell wall. Analysts and traders continue to watch whether increased spot-market volumes or further institutional inflows will provide momentum for a durable advance toward higher ranges, especially as technical signals around $90,000 attract attention.
If institutional flows strengthen and volumes increase, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend. Conversely, a loss of on-chain support or weakening participation from large buyers could curtail recent gains. With the next halving approaching and market structure evolving, a combination of liquidity trends, investor behavior, and technical milestones will shape Bitcoin’s price path in the coming months.
More than $500 million has flowed into Morpho on Arc in just over two weeks since the network went live.
Arc is Circle’s EVM-compatible Layer-1, and Morpho was wired in as its core credit layer from day one.
The numbers behind the milestone Arc’s public mainnet launched on September 16, 2026. Morpho went live the same day, which meant lenders and borrowers could start moving capital immediately.
Launch day alone pulled in somewhere between $150 million and $220 million in initial deposits. Most of that landed in USDC and EURC markets, Circle’s dollar and euro stablecoins.
By October 2, 2026, total deposits on Morpho’s Arc deployment reached $500.27 million. Outstanding loans stood at $189.93 million on the same date.
The activity is far from evenly spread. The cirBTC/USDC market accounted for approximately 86% of lending and borrowing on the platform.
cirBTC is Circle’s Bitcoin-backed wrapped token. A cirBTC/USDC market lets someone post Bitcoin exposure as collateral and borrow dollars against it.
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That market has been running at near-full utilization. Nearly all the USDC lenders have supplied there is already borrowed.
Who is actually depositing Deposits were heavily driven by institutional lending rather than individual users chasing yield.
The vault lineup reflects that. Morpho’s curated vaults on Arc are run by names including Steakhouse Financial and Bitwise, firms that pick which markets a vault lends into and how much risk it takes.
Top vaults on Arc include ones from Galaxy and Keyrock, yielding about 0.80% net APY.
The underlying engine is Morpho Blue, which supports variable-rate lending and borrowing.
Background: Circle builds its own rails Arc is Circle’s attempt to own more of the stack that its stablecoins run on. The network emphasizes stablecoin payments, foreign exchange, and tokenized assets.
Arc’s validator set also includes backing from major institutions like BlackRock and Visa.
Morpho itself is not new to scale. Its broader network held $16.54 billion in total deposits as of early October 2026.
Against that figure, Arc’s $500.27 million is a small slice, roughly 3% of the total.
What this means With approximately 86% of activity tied to a single cirBTC/USDC market, Arc’s lending story is currently a Bitcoin-collateral story.
Near-full utilization raises practical questions. When a lending market is almost entirely borrowed, lenders looking to exit may have to wait for borrowers to repay or for new deposits to arrive.
Variable rates are the built-in fix. If borrowing pressure stays high, rates in that market should climb and attract more USDC supply.
Curators like Steakhouse Financial and Bitwise, plus vaults from Galaxy and Keyrock, point to a user base that values structure and known counterparties over headline yield. A net APY of about 0.80% on top vaults reinforces that.
The next markers to watch are straightforward. Look at whether deposits keep climbing past $500.27 million, whether loans grow beyond $189.93 million, and whether activity spreads out from the cirBTC/USDC market into EURC and other assets.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Tether-backed fintech firm Utexo is preparing to introduce USDT stablecoin transfers on the Bitcoin network in the coming weeks, bringing the world’s largest dollar-pegged cryptocurrency back to its original blockchain after years of rapid expansion elsewhere.
Utexo receives license for Bitcoin-based USDT issuanceUtexo co-founder Viktor Ihnatiuk confirmed the company recently obtained a commercial license permitting the issuance of USDT on Bitcoin using the Tether trademark. Founded in 2025, Utexo raised $7.5 million earlier this year to build out its Bitcoin payments infrastructure.
The platform is designed to serve exchanges, wallets, and payment providers with a suite of APIs, SDKs, and cloud-based solutions, enabling seamless integration with the Bitcoin network. USDT transfers will be fully supported, with added functions such as direct BTC-USDT swaps and BTC-backed collateralized lending, eliminating the need to wrap native bitcoin.
Ihnatiuk has described Tether’s historic commitment to the Bitcoin ecosystem, stating,
Tether has always been a Bitcoin company, viewing Bitcoin as a haven of stability alongside gold. Making USDT as accessible on Bitcoin as on other networks is a major priority for Utexo.
In mid-August, Tether held approximately 100,000 BTC valued at $8.4 billion, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. USDT was first launched on Bitcoin via the Omni protocol in 2014, though its main usage later shifted to Ethereum and Tron. USDT now boasts a market capitalization nearing $190 billion.
Privacy and compliance driven by RGB and UTXO modelUtexo’s core infrastructure is built on the RGB protocol and utilizes Bitcoin’s UTXO (unspent transaction output) model. This approach allows for private USDT transfers by leveraging client-side validation, which keeps most transaction information off the Bitcoin public ledger. Bitcoin’s UTXO architecture anchors digital asset ownership while preserving the privacy of individual transactions.
Unlike Ethereum and Tron, which operate on an account-based model publicizing balance and transaction updates, Utexo’s system ensures cryptographic proof of ownership without exposing user data. However, while RGB assets cannot be frozen at the address level as on Ethereum, Utexo will enforce compliance by blacklisting UTXOs involved in illicit or sanctioned activity, effectively rendering those tokens unredeemable. The list will be shared with exchanges and payments partners to support compliance.
Ihnatiuk explained that once a UTXO is blacklisted, it can no longer be returned to any bridge or redemption tool, thus upholding both privacy and regulatory standards.
USDT to expand utility on Lightning NetworkFollowing its official launch on Bitcoin, Utexo intends to expand USDT support to the Lightning Network, a prominent layer-2 solution designed for rapid, low-cost Bitcoin transactions. This step could introduce USDT as a fee token on Lightning, mirroring approaches such as Circle’s Arc network, which leverages USDC for its own gas fees.
Alongside these technical enhancements, monitoring investor behavior and token launches has become critical in the digital asset sector. In the meme token space, rapid trends can create million-dollar surges in a matter of days. Fomo App recently highlighted a case where an investor parlayed a $99 trade into about $370,000 by participating early in “Niu Lai.” Tracking not just price but also investor choices and timing is increasingly important. Fomo App offers a unified platform combining token discovery, trading, social feeds, investor rankings, and trade alerts, allowing users to follow meme tokens and investor activity in real time.
