Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Emily Nicolle_ _takes a look at how crypto and prediction markets are becoming increasingly intertwined.

Addictive cycle
While Bitcoin appears to have fallen into an autumnal slumber, another corner of the speculative trading arena is thriving. Prediction-market volumes are soaring to new heights, and even with token prices rangebound, crypto’s playing its own role in the bounce.

Trading on crypto-tied event contracts hit a record last week, reaching $2.7 billion in weekly notional trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics. Leading the charge are so-called up/down contracts, which allow traders to bet on whether the price of Bitcoin or another asset will be higher or lower at the end of various time increments, from five minutes to the end of the day.

These markets are essentially a coin-flip, and traders have described them as highly addictive. The speed at which they conclude allows users to get locked into a cycle: start the clock, watch the chart, pick a side, win or lose and then do it all over again. Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin contracts can attract more than $1 million in trading volume each time, while armies of trading bots can be deployed to harvest potential gains just seconds before the timer runs out.

“Prediction markets make crypto trading easier,” said Agnese Aggie Rozite, founder of prediction markets-focused events and education firm 51 Alpha. “For people already in crypto, it’s a natural next step. And because prediction markets run 24/7 like crypto does, the two fit together perfectly.”

There are longer-dated bets on offer too. A Kalshi contract on where Bitcoin will end the year has recorded more than $42 million in volume as of Thursday, while Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” has around $78 million. As a result, crypto is the second-largest category on both platforms — after sports, of course.

In perspective, these figures pale in comparison to the trillions of dollars recorded annually in spot cryptocurrency trading and on perpetual futures venues. But prediction markets are a rare bright spot for digital finance, where company valuations continue to double and investors are clamoring for their own slice of the pie. That’s not going unnoticed by crypto’s elite.

Digital-asset exchanges are keen to get in on the action, either by partnering with another platform that can provide the contracts or by seeking a license in the US to offer the bets themselves. Several exchanges — Coinbase Global Inc., Crypto.com, Gemini Space Station Inc. and Kraken to name a few — already have the required authorization, while others like Blockchain.com have recently applied for the same.

Some of the crypto volumes we’re seeing stem from a crossover between the two worlds. Coinbase’s prediction markets offering is currently powered by Kalshi, for example, with its website showing millions of dollars in trading volume on crypto-tied bets. Robinhood similarly uses many Kalshi markets, though it’s also slowly introducing contracts offered by others, including Crypto.com-spinoff OG.com and Rothera, a derivatives exchange it bought with Susquehanna International Group last year.

This poses an intriguing convergence of interests. Pure-play prediction markets venues like Kalshi are increasingly focused on drumming up demand for non-sports categories and an expansion into futures markets, with sports itself hanging in the balance. Dozens of states have taken legal action claiming that sports contracts are unregistered gambling products, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is defending its turf as Kalshi’s regulator. With a potential Supreme Court intervention looming and a breadwinner on the line, crypto volume is more valuable than ever.

At the same time, we’ve written before about how crypto exchanges’ business models are in need of a similar diversification. Spot volumes on centralized platforms on Wednesday were around $33 billion, per DefiLlama data — a far cry from the $70-100 billion days recorded regularly in January and February.

Crypto-tied prediction markets, of course, are far from the only appeal in entering the race. But if a Supreme Court decision on sports markets doesn’t end in the industry’s favor, how many crypto exchanges will still consider prediction markets to be a business opportunity worth pursuing?

Charting it out
Bloomberg
Bitcoin’s retreat toward $81,000 has pushed it toward its 50-day moving average line, a widely watched gauge of near-term breadth. “This return to the 50-day moving average means the bulls cannot celebrate a quick victory,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.

Counting it out

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs notched $1.1 billion in net inflows this week, recovering from $909.6 million in outflows over the previous two weeks.

Hearing them out
What we’re reading (and writing)

Trump and Crypto Firm Sued for Profiting From Foreign Government
Crypto Rule Finalized by OCC in Digital Asset Industry Win
Kalshi to Allow Futures Bets With Bitcoin-Backed Loans
Italy Targets Crypto Money-Laundering Ring Across Europe
Robinhood to Launch Retail Investing Platform in Middle East From Dubai
Crypto Megadonors Up Ohio Spending to $55 Million (Politico)
China Seeks 61,800 Bitcoin Tied to $5.7 Billion Fraud (CoinDesk)

What we’re watching on Bloomberg TV
Bloomberg’s Katherine Schwartz joins Scarlet Fu and James Seyffart on “Bloomberg Crypto.” Western Union and MoneyGram are adopting crypto technology to defend their businesses and deepen customer ties. Their money transfer time has gone from three days to as short as four minutes.

More from Bloomberg

Markets Daily for what’s moving in stocks, bonds, FX and commodities
Banking Monitor for staying on top of the global banking industry with emerging trends, winners and losers and market opportunities.
CFO Briefing for Nina Trentmann’s weekly newsletter on what finance leaders need to know
Going Private for coverage of private markets and the forces moving capital away from the public eye
Money Stuff for Bloomberg Opinion’s Matt Levine’s newsletter on all things Wall Street and finance

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A US gov wallet moved $1B in BTC. Arkham's Miguel Morel breaks down transaction trails, potential sales vs. custody transfers, and reserve policy factors.

A US government-linked wallet just moved about $1 billion in Bitcoin from the Bitfinex hack, and the market wants to know if a sale is coming. Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel explains what the transaction trail shows, what it can’t show, and why it’s still unclear whether the coins are being sold or moved to a new custodian. He also breaks down how disposal orders and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve factor in.

Chapters:
00:00 US Government Moves $1B in Bitfinex Hack Bitcoin
00:47 Sale or Custody Change? What the Government Might Be Doing
01:52 How Arkham Labels Government Wallets
03:30 Tracking Bitcoin Treasury Companies Before SEC Filings
05:18 Why Exchanges Like Coinbase Can Be a Black Box
06:26 Segregated Wallets and Tracking MicroStrategy
07:52 How AI Agents Are Using Arkham Today
09:42 Is There Any Privacy Left On-Chain?
12:02 Does Anonymity Help or Hurt Institutional Adoption?
14:12 How Investigators Trace Stolen Funds From Hacks

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

Patrick Green

Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.

In brief Prosecutors in Tianjin have applied to confiscate 61,896 BTC and other assets linked to Zhimin Qian, and a local court has accepted the case. Qian allegedly raised more than 40 billion yuan from the public between 2014 and 2017, leaving more than 102,000 investors with losses. The assets are held in the UK, where the High Court ruled this month that Chinese law should govern victims' claims to the Bitcoin. Prosecutors in China have applied to confiscate the 61,896 BTC seized from Zhimin Qian in the UK, and a court in Tianjin has agreed to hear the case, according to a court notice reported by Chinese outlet The Paper.

The Bitcoin is worth about $5.1 billion at its current price of around $82,000.

The Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court said it accepted the application from the city's prosecutors on September 28, and published a notice on October 13. The court said there was evidence that Qian had committed fundraising fraud, mainly in Tianjin's Hedong district.

Besides the Bitcoin, prosecutors are seeking about 72,746 units each of Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin SV, around 3.6 million XRP, and some 70 million Dogecoin, which UK authorities have already converted and placed in an interest-bearing account. The application also covers U.S. dollar, euro and pound cash, jewelry, bank balances and investment portfolios.

According to the prosecutors' application, Qian was the controller of Tianjin Lantian Gerui Electronic Technology, and between April 2014 and August 2017 sold fake wealth management products across China without a license, promising guaranteed returns. The scheme raised more than 40.38 billion yuan, most of which was not used for any genuine business, and left more than 102,000 investors with losses totaling about 19.98 billion yuan, prosecutors said.

Qian fled China in July 2017 with computers holding Bitcoin wallets and eventually reached the UK, where she converted some of the coins into other assets.

Prosecutors argue the seized assets are proceeds of crime that should be recovered, returned to victims, and otherwise confiscated. Because Qian has been a wanted fugitive for more than a year, the case falls under Chinese rules that allow confiscation without the suspect present.

Victims can apply to join the proceedings through a WeChat mini-program, though those who do not will still be able to receive repayments from any recovered assets. The notice period runs for six months, after which the court will hear the case.

Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.The UK caseQian was jailed for 11 years and eight months in the UK in November 2025, after pleading guilty to acquiring and possessing criminal property. Unnamed Treasury officials had privately raised whether the seized Bitcoin could help fill a shortfall in the UK's public finances, the Financial Times reported at the time, while legal experts argued that victims could be entitled to compensation if they could show a sufficient link to the coins.

Weeks after Qian's guilty plea, UK prosecutors told the High Court they were planning a compensation scheme for victims, without giving details. They have since said victims could be compensated through a redress scheme run from China.

On October 12, the High Court ruled that Chinese law should govern thousands of victims' claims to the coins, a decision seen as improving the UK government's chances of keeping them. Law firm Fieldfisher, which represents the claimants, said it is seeking to appeal.

The ruling does not decide whether the victims own the Bitcoin, since no evidence has yet been heard on the content of Chinese law, David Phillips, a dispute resolution partner at London law firm SMB, wrote on Wednesday. But it shows that "a victim cannot necessarily recover cryptocurrency simply by proving: 'That Bitcoin was bought with money taken from me,'" he wrote.

"Cryptoassets may operate without borders, but proprietary rights in them remain capable of raising intensely territorial questions of applicable law," Phillips added.

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Webull plans to put Kalshi’s regulated perpetual futures in front of eligible American brokerage customers in November. The contract never expires, but funding, margin and a separate clearinghouse still determine what a position costs and when it closes.

Summary

Webull announced an initial November rollout on October 20, 2026. The CFTC approved Kalshi’s BTCPERP contract on May 29. Kalshi says funding adjustments occur 3 times each day in its app. Webull expects wider access before the end of 2026. The initial lineup includes Bitcoin and selected crypto assets, subject to listing requirements. Webull has announced plans to offer Bitcoin and other crypto perpetual futures to eligible U.S. customers starting in November.

The company’s October 20 release identifies KalshiEX as the exchange and Kalshi Klear as the clearinghouse. Customers approved for futures trading would use existing Webull Futures accounts. Webull has not published the exact launch day, the full asset list or the initial margin schedule for every contract.

For a brokerage customer familiar with stock options or conventional futures, the unfamiliar feature is the absence of expiry. The position can remain open as long as margin obligations are met. It is not a permanent right to hold exposure without fresh cash demands: funding transfers, price moves and maintenance requirements continue while the trade is alive.

November will put an existing contract on a new front end The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved KalshiEX’s Bitcoin perpetual contract on May 29. Its approval announcement describes BTCPERP as a futures contract referencing Bitcoin’s spot price. Kalshi brought the product to market in June; the coming Webull rollout changes distribution, not the original approval date or the underlying nature of the contract.

Webull says the first offering will include Bitcoin and selected crypto assets. Future additions depend on regulatory review and exchange listing requirements. Its statement gives no basis to promise that every coin a customer can trade on an offshore venue will appear in a Webull Futures account. Wider availability before year-end is a company expectation, not a confirmed national opening for every account holder.

The first Kalshi Bitcoin perp coverage described the May regulatory decision, while Kalshi’s subsequent launch established that the contract was already available on the exchange. Webull adds a separate brokerage relationship and a much more familiar interface for investors whose accounts already hold other products.

KalshiEX is a designated contract market supervised by the CFTC. Kalshi Klear is a registered derivatives clearing organization. Webull provides the customer-facing brokerage route through futures-approved accounts. Those names are not interchangeable. An investor placing an order through Webull is trading an exchange-listed derivative that is cleared at a separate regulated entity; the asset displayed on a Webull screen is not Bitcoin held in a spot wallet.

JUST IN: Kalshi files with the CFTC for equity index perpetual futures

The products would allow leveraged long or short positions on major indexes pic.twitter.com/33F2cExZx9

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) August 19, 2026 The cash flows do not resemble a spot Bitcoin purchase A Bitcoin spot buyer pays for coins and then owns an asset subject to custody arrangements. A BTCPERP trader posts collateral for a cash-settled futures position. The CFTC’s Kalshi product filing says the contract has no fixed expiration and settles in cash. Price exposure, margin and funding determine the account’s economic result; a trader does not receive onchain BTC merely because the futures price rises.

Conventional dated futures converge through expiration or are rolled to another maturity. A perpetual contract lacks that scheduled endpoint. Its funding mechanism transfers value between long and short positions according to exchange rules so the derivative price stays tethered to the underlying reference. Funding can change over time. A directionally correct view of Bitcoin’s eventual price can still lose money if carrying costs, intraday losses or forced liquidation overwhelm the account before the move arrives.

Kalshi’s educational material says its own application adjusts funding 3 times per day. That information describes the exchange’s current product documentation, not a promise that Webull will present every calculation or notification in an identical way. Before trading, a customer would need the actual contract specifications, funding formula, fee schedule and the timing of cash movements applicable to the position being opened.

Consider a simplified illustration without assuming the live margin rates. A customer has $1,000 in collateral and opens a $5,000 long exposure. A 5% fall in the futures price represents a $250 trading loss before fees and funding, or one quarter of the initial collateral. A 5% rise would yield the same gross gain, but leverage magnifies both directions. The account can face a maintenance call or liquidation before any full 5% move depending on the exchange’s actual thresholds, collateral and interim funding. The numbers illustrate arithmetic, not Webull’s announced leverage limit.

An approved contract is not approval for every client Webull states that initial access is for eligible U.S. customers approved for futures trading. Existing Webull stock or crypto access does not imply a futures account is approved. Futures products have separate disclosures, suitability or account-opening procedures, margin obligations and jurisdictional rules. The company has not disclosed how many existing customers meet its criteria.

Kalshi’s contract approval addressed exchange listing under CFTC Regulation 40.3. The exchange must operate under designated-contract-market obligations and its clearinghouse under a distinct derivatives regime. Brokerage access adds customer onboarding and the futures commission merchant relationship. Those layers do not vanish because the trade is shown alongside stocks and options in one application.

The arrival of Kraken’s U.S. crypto perps and the Coinbase route to global perp liquidity show that Webull is entering a market with multiple structures. Some products trade on U.S. designated exchanges; others route through arrangements involving foreign futures under CFTC staff guidance. Treating every offering labeled a perpetual as the same regulated contract would obscure differences in venue, custody, margin and legal claim.

There is a distinction even within Kalshi’s business. The company operates event contracts as well as crypto derivatives. Its Bitcoin perpetual is a futures contract referencing spot Bitcoin, approved under a specific CFTC order. A dispute about how states regulate sports event contracts does not change that instrument’s reference price, funding mechanism or futures-clearing architecture.

Funding can turn a winning direction into a losing trade Perpetual funding is often described as a small regular adjustment. Small rates compound when a position stays open, and a temporary spike can make holding expensive precisely when leveraged traders crowd into one direction. The funding payment is separate from the profit or loss caused by Bitcoin’s price movement. An account statement that combines them without explanation can give an incomplete account of why equity changed.

Suppose a $10,000 notional position pays an illustrative 0.01% funding rate at each of 3 daily intervals. The payments would total $3 a day, or $90 across 30 days if both notional and rate were constant. They rarely remain constant. At 0.10% per interval, the same calculation becomes $30 daily and $900 over 30 days. Neither figure is a forecast of Kalshi funding. The exercise shows why an advertised zero-expiry position has a continuing price even when the displayed BTC price is flat.

Margin creates a second clock. A long position can lose collateral as the market falls. If account equity drops below maintenance requirements, a liquidation process can close the position, leaving a trader unable to wait for a recovery. Kalshi’s margin explanation describes isolated margin in its own application. The account-level implementation and any brokerage-specific settings must be checked in the product terms when Webull goes live.

Kalshi and Webull emphasize regulated infrastructure and visibility into liquidation levels. Those features make a risk measurable, not absent. An investor can compare the maintenance requirement and expected funding payments before entering, then watch the live balance instead of assuming an evergreen contract can be left alone. The exchange’s rulebook, clearing notices and Webull’s customer disclosures will provide the controlling details.

The case for bringing perps into a brokerage Webull’s U.S. chief Anthony Denier cited substantial global demand for perpetual futures in the company’s announcement, stating annual volume exceeded $90 trillion in 2025. That is Webull’s industry estimate, not a volume figure for its planned November launch or for Kalshi’s Bitcoin contract. The argument for integration is straightforward: investors who already use a regulated futures account could reach an exchange-listed version without moving to an offshore venue.

A separate clearinghouse can net and manage obligations under established derivatives rules, while an approved customer sees information on margin and funding through a broker. Webull says access would sit beside other futures in the account, with stocks, options, spot crypto and event products elsewhere on its platform. The ability to see several assets in one application can simplify navigation, although consolidated presentation does not merge their protections or settlement methods.

Competition is real. Kalshi’s expansion into additional crypto perps gives Webull more than one prospective underlying; Kraken and Coinbase have their own client bases and liquidity routes. If regulated U.S. order books deepen, traders may have more choices about spreads, collateral, hours and execution. The announcement by itself supplies no comparative pricing data showing Webull will be cheaper or more liquid than its rivals.

The counterargument is that offshore venues have years of liquidity, deep order books and familiar collateral practices. A new brokerage distribution channel cannot recreate those conditions on launch day. Volume at a venue is not the same as open interest, and an exchange-wide figure says little about a specific contract’s depth at a volatile hour. The first published trading statistics after Webull launches will give a firmer basis for judging whether new access produces durable activity.

Price formation and the funding reference deserve scrutiny A cash-settled Bitcoin future needs a reference for the underlying spot price. The exchange’s specifications determine the index or calculation, funding intervals, disruption procedures and settlement-related payments. Even an investor whose view is on Bitcoin rather than the derivative has exposure to those contract rules while the position is open.

The spread between perpetual and reference price can widen in a fast market. Funding encourages convergence over time, but it does not guarantee a perp always trades at the exact spot price. Market makers can quote both directions when hedging is available; a thin book can produce a worse fill or a liquidation at a different price from a casual view of the reference chart. The customer’s execution price, reference level and funding rate need to be treated as separate observations.

On a 24-hour market, risk controls must operate outside conventional stock-market hours. Crypto moves on weekends; maintenance margin still applies while U.S. equities are closed. A brokerage user who assumes trades will pause when stock exchanges do may misunderstand the product. Webull has not yet published its precise launch timetable or any product-specific maintenance-window schedule for the new distribution route.

The CFTC approved Kalshi’s BTCPERP after reviewing the filing, but regulatory approval is not a government assessment that a leveraged position is suitable for every investor. Approval concerns the exchange-listed contract and applicable market rules. Customer eligibility, financing cost and individual losses belong to a different decision at the brokerage and account level.

JUST IN: CFTC approves BTCPERP as its first regulated perpetual futures contract. The approval relies on precedent that futurity does not require a fixed final delivery date pic.twitter.com/c7LXxNVNlC

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) June 16, 2026 What remains unannounced before November One unresolved question concerns exactly what a trader sees when the collateral in a futures account changes. The exchange calculates margin against its own rules, the clearer manages obligations after a trade, and Webull displays account figures to the customer. Those processes can be presented in one interface but are not the same calculation. A position-level screen needs to distinguish available cash, initial margin, maintenance margin, unrealized profit or loss and accrued funding. The company says it intends to give users visibility into funding, leverage and liquidation levels; the live display has yet to be observed.

An account holder comparing two perps should look at the units in which prices and funding are quoted. A percentage funding rate applies to a notional exposure, not merely to the dollars posted as collateral. In the earlier $5,000 example, a 0.10% funding charge would be $5 for one interval even if the customer put up only $1,000. Quoting that $5 as 0.10% of collateral would understate its effect fivefold. Changes in notional value or position size change the cash payment, so a flat historical funding rate is not an adequate forecast of carrying cost.

The clearing structure has a role when one side of a trade cannot pay. A registered clearinghouse maintains rules for collecting margin and handling defaults between participants. Its presence can reduce bilateral counterparty exposure within that system, but it does not insure a customer’s trading losses or promise a favorable fill during stressed conditions. The trade remains leveraged and can be closed by the applicable liquidation mechanism. A useful post-launch comparison would examine the actual customer agreement and exchange rulebook rather than assuming that the word regulated describes every risk a position faces.

There is an additional question about how the first audience is selected. Webull has said the initial group consists of eligible, approved futures customers. The number of such accounts is undisclosed, as is the fraction Webull intends to activate in November. Even if the exchange lists several underlying assets, the broker can stage customer access. First-week order flow is therefore a joint measure of exchange liquidity and distribution choices, not a clean measure of American appetite for Bitcoin perps overall.

Webull has given a month, not a date. It named Bitcoin but left its other starting assets unspecified. The company promised wider availability before year-end without disclosing how many eligible clients will receive access in the first stage. No launch-day bid-ask spread, open interest or Webull customer volume exists to measure yet.

The primary documents establish a sequence: CFTC approval in May, Kalshi trading beginning in June, and Webull’s distribution announcement in October for a November rollout. They do not establish that Webull will create a new Bitcoin futures contract, change the exchange’s margin rules or deliver Bitcoin into customer wallets. A prudent analysis of the planned product starts with the contract specifications and ends with the first observable account terms and market data.

Webull says eligible users will trade through their Webull Futures accounts. The exchange and clearinghouse are KalshiEX and Kalshi Klear, respectively. Its October 20 release says additional products will follow only subject to regulatory review and exchange listing requirements.

What to watch First trading day: Webull’s launch notice should identify the actual start date and customer eligibility. Contract list: Exchange notices will establish which assets beyond Bitcoin are initially available. Funding and fees: Published specifications can show the true cost of maintaining exposure through several funding intervals. Margin disclosures: Initial and maintenance requirements determine how far a position can move before intervention. Liquidity: Contract volume, spreads and open interest after launch can show whether brokerage distribution brings sustained trading. FAQ When will Webull offer Bitcoin perpetual futures? Webull says the initial rollout begins in November 2026, with wider availability expected before year-end. It had not published an exact launch date as of October 22.

Who can trade the new contracts? The company says access begins with eligible U.S. customers approved for futures trading through Webull Futures accounts. A standard stock account alone does not establish eligibility.

Does the Bitcoin contract ever expire? Kalshi’s BTCPERP has no fixed expiration date. Funding and margin obligations continue while a position remains open.

Do traders receive actual Bitcoin? No. The CFTC filing describes a cash-settled futures contract referencing Bitcoin’s spot price. A futures position is not a spot Bitcoin withdrawal.

Who lists and clears Webull’s perpetual futures? KalshiEX lists the contracts, and Kalshi Klear clears them. Webull provides the brokerage access described in its October 20 announcement.

What is a funding payment? It is a periodic transfer linked to the perp’s price relative to its reference. The payment is distinct from gains and losses caused by a move in Bitcoin itself.

Can a position be liquidated before Bitcoin recovers? Yes. If account equity falls below maintenance requirements, the exchange’s rules can trigger liquidation even though the contract itself has no expiry.

Is November’s full coin lineup known? No. Webull named Bitcoin and selected crypto assets but did not publish a complete starting list. Additional products depend on review and listing requirements. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 22, 2026.

As discussions continue in the cryptocurrency market regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC), Moez Kassam, co-founder and investment director of Anson Funds, which manages billions of dollars in assets, has made noteworthy statements. The renowned investor argued that Bitcoin is no longer a temporary speculative tool and that institutional adoption has significantly changed the future of BTC.

Appearing on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast, Kassam explained how his perspective on Bitcoin has changed over the years.

Kassam stated that he initially viewed Bitcoin only in terms of investment opportunities and corporate deals, but over time he came to believe in the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency.

Kassam noted that Bitcoin was historically associated more with anonymity and the underground economy, but today it has transformed into an investment ecosystem that includes major financial institutions.

The renowned investor stated, “Previously, I was only interested in investment deals. Now I believe Bitcoin has an intrinsic value and is here to stay.”

Kassam noted that Bitcoin has experienced many sharp price movements and market cycles over the years, but despite this, a strong investor community has formed that continues to support the cryptocurrency.

According to Kassam, the adoption of Bitcoin by large financial institutions in particular, and their inclusion in investment platforms, has significantly differentiated the cryptocurrency market from the past.

Speaking about Anson Funds’ activities in the Bitcoin market, Kassam revealed that his fund has provided a total of $1 billion in capital to companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets over the past 18 months.

The investor stated that they manage assets worth approximately $2.5 to $3 billion, and that these investments are made through various structures such as stocks and convertible finance instruments.

However, Kassam added that he does not have a positive view of all Bitcoin treasury companies.

Kassam argued that the adoption of the institutional Bitcoin accumulation model, popularized by Strategy, by numerous companies is increasingly reducing investment opportunities, noting that early adopters have gained a significant advantage.

The renowned investor stated that many companies that have recently entered the market are driven by the expectation of quick profits, and that this poses a risk for investors.

Kassam also stated that they see opportunities in the preferred shares of Strive, a Bitcoin-focused investment company. The investor noted that these financing instruments offer approximately a 15% return, explaining that institutional investors can profit from the price difference by purchasing these instruments at discounted prices.

Kassam also touched upon market expectations regarding Bitcoin’s future performance, stating that some investors predict a 30% to 50% increase in their financial models for the next year. However, he did not present these predictions as his own definitive price target.

*This is not investment advice.

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Bitcoin climbed alongside technology stocks as a revival in risk appetite spread to cryptocurrencies, lifting the token out of a bout of listless trading and offering another sign of resurgent speculative fervor across global markets.

The original digital asset rose as much as 2.4% to $84,737 as a rally sparked by SpaceX earnings helped reignite enthusiasm for riskier assets, even as questions lingered over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom.

Also helping sentiment: the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency unveiled a final measure for payment stablecoin issuers, in latest sign pro-industry development.

The latest uptick has been in part driven by a rebuilding of leverage via perpetual futures. Open interest, or the total outstanding number of the futures contracts, has been rising again after weeks of deleveraging, according to data compiled by Coinglass.

“Risk assets in general got a lift from solid earnings and renewed AI interest while oil remains elevated and choppy.” said Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute. “At the moment, this still feels like a recovery vs the start of a rally, however that could turn quickly if we approach $87,000 Bitcoin** **with decent momentum.”

Besides futures, the crypto options market is posing a bullish posture as well with demand clustered around call contracts at the strike prices of $95,000, $90,000 and $100,000, according to crypto exchange Deribit.

“The longs that were on got cleared out on the way down, and a good part of the bounce was shorts closing. That’s largely positioning resetting rather than new leverage going on,” said Himanshu Sahay, co-founder of Arch Lending.

Many analysts are monitoring Bitcoin ETF flows for a read on the health of the rally and retail investor involvement. Over the past month, some $2.3 billion has gone into spot funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show, suggesting renewed investor interest. Within the cohort of offerings, BlackRock’s IBIT has been the biggest beneficiary, absorbing the majority of those flows during that stretch.

Still, researchers at Glassnode say that though spot ETFs have seen inflows, it hasn’t come with heightened trading volume. “Inflows that repeat on rising volume would show demand broadening beyond a single day,” they wrote in a note Wednesday.

“I think there’s plenty of fuel in the tank for it to fly higher again,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack.

Elon Musk’s proposed merger of SpaceX and Tesla has drawn heightened interest, not just for the integration of aerospace and electric vehicle technology, but for what it means in the world of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. If the two companies were to unite, their cumulative Bitcoin holdings would exceed 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.5 billion based on recent market prices.

Potential merger would create a Bitcoin powerhouseOn SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call, Musk confirmed that both companies’ boards have established special committees comprised of independent directors to evaluate a potential merger. He stressed that discussions remain preliminary, warning that predicting the deal as a certainty would be premature.

The merger prospect has quickly become a focal point for the cryptocurrency community, given each company’s sizable exposure to Bitcoin. Tesla, a global leader in electric vehicles with Musk as CEO, most recently reported a Bitcoin reserve of 11,509 BTC. SpaceX, the private aerospace manufacturer and satellite communications company led by Musk, revealed its own stash of 18,712 BTC in its S-1 filing prior to its June IPO announcement.

Together, the holdings would position the merged entity among the largest non-mining corporate Bitcoin holders globally. Only a few companies, such as MicroStrategy under Michael Saylor, would outrank Musk’s combined corporate portfolio in terms of Bitcoin reserves.

Mini dictionary: MicroStrategy is a publicly traded business intelligence company led by Michael Saylor, recognized for holding the largest Bitcoin treasury among public companies and for its active Bitcoin investment approach.

Tesla holds 11,509 BTC, and SpaceX owns 18,712 BTC, combining for 30,221 BTC valued near $2.5 billion at the latest Bitcoin price of $83,000. The average cost across both companies is around $35,000 per Bitcoin, indicating a total cost basis of approximately $1 billion.

SpaceX Bitcoin activity draws attentionThe most significant discovery stems from SpaceX’s Bitcoin holdings. The company’s 18,712 Bitcoin were almost entirely obscured from public view until SpaceX’s IPO filing revealed the cache. This sum was more than double the estimate made by blockchain analysis firms, which had attributed far fewer coins to SpaceX’s wallets before the disclosure.

Recently, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence reported that SpaceX moved more than $133 million in Bitcoin on Friday. The company transferred 1,215 BTC to separate wallet addresses, including a shift of 300 BTC worth $33 million and 915 BTC valued at $100.7 million.

Arkham Intelligence highlighted that these recent transactions differed from earlier movements and indicated active internal treasury operations at SpaceX.

Despite this movement, neither SpaceX nor Tesla has signaled any intentions of increasing or selling their Bitcoin positions. SpaceX last made significant wallet transactions in prior years, while Tesla has reported no changes to its digital asset holdings through its latest quarter.

CompanyBTC HoldingsEstimated Value ($B)Cost Basis ($B)Average Buy PriceTesla11,509~$1.0~$0.4$35,000SpaceX18,712~$1.5~$0.6$35,000Total30,221~$2.5~$1.0$35,000The discussions around a potential merger remain at an early stage, with the outcome still uncertain. For now, the combined crypto treasury is a hypothetical scenario dependent on the success of negotiations and regulatory approval.

Musk has acknowledged the complexities involved, and has indicated no immediate changes to either company’s stance on its Bitcoin assets. Both firms continue holding their positions, and have not announced any upcoming strategic moves regarding their Bitcoin reserves.

Binance’s stablecoin reserves have dropped to $41.6 billion, a one-year low, after $6.3 billion left the exchange since April. The drain is market-wide, and it is starving crypto rallies of fresh buying power.

Prices have not collapsed. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $83,350, roughly 4% below its September peak. However, the cash needed to push it higher keeps shrinking.

How Far Has Binance’s Cash Pile Fallen?Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin balance peaked near $51 billion in late November 2025, according to CryptoQuant data shared by analyst Darkfost.

It has since lost roughly $9 billion. As a result, reserves are back at levels last seen in early October 2025.

A spring recovery briefly lifted the balance to about $48 billion in early May. However, that gain has fully reversed, with $6.3 billion exiting since April.

The 90-day change in Binance’s stablecoin market cap has stayed negative since the summer and now reads -4.7%.

That is milder than the February and March slump. Back then, the 90-day change sank below -15% as BTC slid from roughly $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s.

Concentration raises the stakes. Binance still holds more than 70% of all exchange stablecoin reserves.

Stablecoin market cap change in Binance. Source: Darkfost/CryptoQuantIs the Drain Limited to Binance?No. Since April, Coinbase Advanced lost $2.5 billion in stablecoins, OKX $2.4 billion, and Bybit $2.3 billion, per Darkfost.

Together, the four venues have shed roughly $13.5 billion. Because the data tracks ERC-20 tokens only, the full outflow may be larger.

Meanwhile, total supply offers little offset. Tether (USDT) has hovered near $183 billion since April. USD Coin (USDC), in contrast, slipped from $78 billion to $72 billion, per CoinGecko.

This mirrors an earlier exchange stablecoin reserves drop, which pointed to a similar liquidity squeeze.

Why Does Every Bitcoin Rally Run Out of Fuel?The CryptoQuant chart exposes a divergence. BTC climbed more than 30% from its August low to $86,597 on Sept. 22, yet Binance’s stablecoin balance kept falling.

In other words, the Bitcoin price rallied without fresh exchange cash behind it. Such moves may lean on existing holders and leverage, which can leave them fragile.

That fragility now shows. BTC has given back about 4%, while Ethereum (ETH) has dropped roughly 11% from its Sept. 22 high of $2,775.

Trading activity has thinned too. BTC’s average daily trading volume fell 27%, from $38.6 billion in April to $28.2 billion so far in October.

Derivatives traders are not leaning in either. Funding rates are the fees long and short traders swap periodically. On Binance and Bybit BTC perpetuals, they sit at the neutral 0.01% baseline.

What Would Bring Buyers Back to Exchanges?Darkfost offers two explanations. First, exchanges may be trimming stablecoin inventory to match weaker demand, as investors avoid fresh crypto exposure.

Alternatively, some holders may have moved funds to platforms paying yield while they wait for better conditions.

Either reading points to the same outcome. Without new stablecoins on exchanges, buyers lack the dry powder to defend breakouts.

That pressure adds to Bitcoin’s October risk factors, which already weighed on sentiment entering the month.

The signal to watch is a turn in Binance’s 90-day change back above zero. Until then, rallies may keep running on positioning rather than new capital.

More broadly, the drain shows how much crypto price discovery still rests on a few centralized venues. When Binance’s cash pile shrinks, the whole market feels it.

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Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

Leverage traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rebound despite weak spot purchases. This divergence could amplify a new drop below 80000 dollars, as many long positions would then be exposed to forced liquidations.

In brief

Traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rise despite weak spot purchases.
Leverage positions remain high, with $36.4 billion committed on futures contracts.
The options market shows growing demand for protection against another drop.
The $80,000 threshold becomes decisive, as its breach could trigger forced position liquidations.
The Fed meeting on October 27-28 could influence the bitcoin’s next direction.

Traders remain optimistic despite spot sell-offs
The perpetual futures market shows that bullish bets remain significant. According to Glassnode’s weekly report published on October 19, payments made by long positions increased by 49.4%, from $1.1 million to $1.6 million.

These fees, called funding rates, help keep perpetual contract prices close to the real bitcoin price. When buyers pay sellers, it generally signals stronger demand for positions betting on an increase.

However, several data show that this optimism rests on a fragile structure :

Buyer payments reached $1.6 million ;
Open interest on futures remains high at $36.4 billion ;
Spot sell-offs still exceed purchases ;
Open interest on options has grown to $38.6 billion ;
The cost of protection against a drop has sharply increased ;
The $80,000 threshold remains the main support to defend.

Open interest on futures only fell by 0.3%, compared to $36.5 billion a week earlier. Leverage positions remain numerous despite bitcoin’s recent decline.

This situation does not automatically cause a new drop. However, it increases market sensitivity. If price falls sharply enough, platforms can close long positions whose margin becomes insufficient. These automatic sales may then accelerate the initial movement.

Options reveal increased demand for protection
The options market shows more marked caution. The 25 delta imbalance indicator, which compares the price of bearish protections to that of equivalent bullish bets, rose from 5.2% to 8.6% in one week.

This increase shows investors agree to pay more to protect themselves against a drop. Put options thus become more sought after, even though bitcoin’s daily movements remain relatively moderate.

The gap between anticipated volatility and actually observed volatility also went from -3.8% to +2.1%. The options market now expects stronger future fluctuations than those recently recorded.

This caution is explained by the persistent weakness of spot demand. The Glassnode indicator that measures the gap between aggressive purchases and sales worsened by 24.7%. Its balance dropped from -$67 million to -$83.6 million.

Daily volume has changed little, with a rise from $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. Activity thus remains stable, but sellers increasingly dominate trading. This development does not confirm a sustainable accumulation capable of supporting leveraged long positions.

Glassnode describes a more defensive market, but not yet subject to extreme fear. The cost of protections rises, without reaching levels usually associated with panic periods.

The 80,000 dollar threshold becomes the main test
Bitcoin trades near $82,596. The $80,000 threshold has already attracted buyers since the October decline, but a new break could quickly change the balance.

Recent holders reinforce this vulnerability. The share of supply controlled by short-term investors rose from 14.5% to 14.7%, above its usual historical range. These actors often react faster to price changes.

The proportion of bitcoins held with unrealized gains also dropped from 70.1% to 68.2%. At the same time, the ratio between realized profits and losses fell from 0.8 to 0.4. Losses thus become more significant compared to gains realized.

A fall below $80,000 could push traders to voluntarily reduce their positions, then trigger forced liquidations if the movement accelerates. Conversely, a rebound supported by genuine spot purchases would reduce this risk.

The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28 constitutes the next catalyst. A stricter monetary policy could weigh on risky assets. The danger thus does not come only from a bitcoin drop but from the leverage accumulated by traders still waiting for its recovery.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Germany's Sparkasse network has started crypto trading in its banking app via DekaBank, covering Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and Polygon's POL, with a staggered bank-by-bank rollout.

Germany's Sparkasse banking network has begun rolling out crypto trading inside its banking app, bringing Bitcoin ($BTC), Ether ($ETH, @ethereum), XRP ($XRP, @XRP), Solana ($SOL, @solana) and Polygon's POL token ($POL, @0xPolygon) to customers of Europe's largest banking group by assets.

The service went live on October 19, 2026, but access is not yet nationwide. Each local savings bank must switch it on individually, so only customers of participating institutions can use it for now.

How the Sparkasse crypto service worksThe product is called "Krypto, powered by Deka" and is run by DekaBank, the securities house of the Sparkassen group. According to Bloomberg, the rollout will be gradual over the coming months, and each Sparkasse decides on its own whether to offer it. DekaBank handles trade execution and custody. Customers open a separate crypto account with DekaBank inside the app's investing section, and a securities account is not required.

The fee is reported at €0.99 per order. DekaBank's announcement does not detail other costs such as spreads, according to fund research outlet e-fundresearch. Reporting also says the service is aimed at adult, self-directed investors and that no investment advice is given.

Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe is described as the largest financial services group in Germany and Europe by assets. Crypto assets held through the service are not covered by statutory deposit insurance, BeInCrypto notes.

Rollout pace and regulatory backdropOnly a handful of banks were live at launch. More than 230 institutions have reportedly expressed interest, and 30 to 40 additional banks are expected to join each month. Joachim Schmalzl of the German Savings Banks Association (DSGV) said it is for each savings bank to decide when to start, according to dpa. The association is aiming for a large share of interested banks to be connected in the first half of 2027.

The move marks a reversal for the group. Bloomberg reports that the Sparkassen long rejected crypto offerings and that its bodies recommended against crypto trading about four years ago because of the risks. The shift was justified by customer demand and a changed regulatory framework.

DekaBank received its licence under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets rules (MiCA) from Germany's BaFin in 2025, which lets it bundle trading, custody and customer support in one place, according to Bloomberg and e-fundresearch.

Sources:

Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance: Deka startet Bitcoin-Handel nach Sparkassen-Richtungsschwenke-fundresearch: DekaBank startet Kryptohandel fuer Sparkassen-Kunden

Wall Street has found a new way to buy Bitcoin, and it looks a lot like something your grandparents owned. According to a report from Fidelity Digital Assets, perpetual preferred stocks issued by Bitcoin treasury companies have financed the purchase of 135,979 BTC in just over a year.

That figure, measured as of October 5, 2026, represents more than 0.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

The report, published October 20, 2026, frames these instruments as a real source of demand for Bitcoin. It also positions them as a bridge to the much larger world of fixed-income investors.

The numbers behind the preferred stock push
Think of a perpetual preferred stock as a bond that never matures. Investors hand over cash, the company pays them a steady dividend, and there is no date when the principal comes back.

For Bitcoin treasury companies, that structure is useful. They raise money from income-focused investors and use it to buy more Bitcoin, without issuing new common shares or taking on traditional debt.

The pace picked up sharply in 2026. Between March and May, issuers raised more than $7 billion through these offerings, according to Fidelity.

That capital went toward more than 95,000 BTC during those three months alone.

April was the peak. Fidelity’s data shows nearly 30,000 BTC were purchased in one week that month.

How it stacks up against spot ETPs
Fidelity was careful not to oversell the comparison with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products. Those funds launched in January 2024 and gathered 888,185 BTC in their first year.

Fidelity’s argument is about who these products reach, not raw volume. The firm sees perpetual preferred equity as a way to tap the broader fixed-income market, which it estimates at around $150 trillion.

Fidelity also asserts that these vehicles can offer yields that surpass many traditional cash equivalents.

Where this trend came from
The model traces back to Strategy, which launched its first perpetual preferred stock product in July 2025. That issuance opened the door for others, including Strive, which Fidelity names alongside Strategy as a pioneer of the structure.

Fidelity has been building this thesis for a while. In commentary from September 2026, the firm highlighted the potential of preferred equity as a form of Bitcoin-backed digital credit, pointing to its appeal for fixed-income investors.

What this means for Bitcoin demand
Money raised through perpetual preferreds goes directly into Bitcoin purchases, so every successful offering translates into buying pressure on the open market.

Still, the model carries risks worth watching. Perpetual preferred stocks come with ongoing dividend obligations, and those payments do not stop just because Bitcoin’s price falls.

Issuers are effectively promising fixed income backed by a volatile asset. If Bitcoin enters a prolonged downturn, the market will test whether that promise holds up and whether investors keep lining up for new issuances.

For investors, the key metrics to track are the volume of new preferred issuance and how much of it converts into Bitcoin purchases. The yields these products offer relative to cash equivalents will also signal whether fixed-income buyers stay interested.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

The Liquid Network on Tuesday said that things were up and running again, over one month after hackers stole 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million at the time, from the network’s federation wallet before returning most of it in a “white hat” operation.

Writing in a blog post, the Liquid Network said that it was entering “the final stages of recovery with enhanced security.” 

Hackers in September stole 4,000 bitcoins from the federation wallet that backs the Blockstream sidechain. Blockstream was able to negotiate to get back most of the funds. 

“The final phase of restoration involves reestablishing the network’s full 1:1 bitcoin backing, followed by the controlled reactivation of Federation peg-outs for authorized PAK key holders,” the Liquid blog post read. 

“The Federation, Blockstream, and independent security experts have made substantial progress toward this objective, with the necessary technical infrastructure and safeguards now in place.”

The post added that it had introduced phased swaps again. Blockstream CEO Adam Back wrote on X on Tuesday that swaps were working again. 

Liquid is a layer-2 created by Blockstream that allows users to quickly move assets backed 1:1 with bitcoin. People can swap stablecoins for bitcoin and bitcoin on the Lightning Network on apps that support the Liquid Network. 

Hackers were able to get 4,000 bitcoins by exploiting an inflation bug on the Liquid sidechain to create over 4,000 LBTC — a token supposedly backed by bitcoin — that did not exist before and cash them out for real on-chain BTC. 

The hackers claimed to be white hat hackers who then had an exchange with Blockstream via messages written into Bitcoin blocks. Though critics argue they were not so ‘white’ since they kept 15% of the stolen funds, worth millions.

In one message, the hackers slammed Blockstream as “delusional, greedy, and arrogant,” and threatened to reveal all of Blockstream’s encrypted messages in the exchange unless the company paid the hackers 10% of the bitcoins as an official bounty. 

“You SHALL pay 10% using your own money as bug bounty or you will cause all your holders a 15% loss for your irresponsibility and stinginess,” the message read. 

The hackers are still holding onto around 600 bitcoins — or 15% of the total funds — worth close to $50 million at today’s prices as per the latest public knowledge. 

It is not clear if Blockstream reached a settlement with the hackers in private.

Mathew Di Salvo

Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.

Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia, plans to make Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether’s USDT accessible to its 110.6 million retail customers starting December 1. The bank received approval from the Bank of Russia to operate as both a cryptocurrency exchange and a digital depository, according to recent announcements.

Launch details and access channelsThe new crypto assets will become available through Sberbank’s existing digital platforms, including SberBank Online, SberInvestments, and SberBusiness. As of the last quarter, Sberbank also served 3.5 million corporate clients. These established channels are already widely used by Russian consumers for day-to-day banking activities.

The exchange and depository licenses were cleared by the Bank of Russia, with the depository permit coming six days prior to the exchange approval on October 12. Sberbank indicated that the digital depository status will allow the bank to provide crypto trading and custody services within interfaces familiar to its clients.

“This status will allow the bank to provide services related to organizing the circulation of digital currency on interfaces which clients already use.”

Sberbank’s launch date is contingent on the finalization of secondary regulations by the central bank. The bank is now authorized to act as a counterparty to client trades and record client holdings in-house, eliminating the need for third-party platforms.

Asset offerings and investor restrictionsFor the initial rollout, only Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT are included in the Bank of Russia’s draft list for retail trading. Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of Sberbank, has estimated that the annual crypto trading volume in Russia could reach 4 trillion rubles, approximately $48 billion, after the introduction of these services.

In recent years, Sberbank has expanded its digital asset services, offering structured bonds and digital financial products linked to cryptocurrencies. In December 2025, the bank conducted a test of a crypto-backed loan involving qualified investors, and its offerings now extend to crypto baskets as well.

First Deputy Chairman Alexander Vedyakhin explained that a digital depository would be central to the new infrastructure, maintaining records of client cryptocurrency rights and accounting for off-chain transactions.

Mini dictionary: Digital depository, a platform or entity designated to store, record, and track digital assets and cryptocurrency holdings for users, often performing custodial and settlement functions outside of public blockchains.

Regulatory framework and transaction limitsUnder the latest regulations, approved intermediaries such as Sberbank may sell up to 300,000 rubles (around $3,600) of digital assets annually to each non-qualified retail investor. Buyers must pass a knowledge test before making such purchases. Despite the ability to buy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Sberbank clients will not be able to use crypto for goods and services payments within Russia, in line with the country’s prohibition on crypto payments for transactions.

Further, the law specifically prohibits transfers of digital currency between individuals and bans transfers to non-custodial wallets. The Bank of Russia clarified that individual-to-individual digital currency transfers are forbidden under Part 5 of Article 31 of Federal Law No. 282-FZ, although certain direct deals will be permitted until July 1, 2027.

AssetStatus for Retail BuyersYearly Cap (Non-qualified)Bitcoin (BTC)Approved300,000 RUBEthereum (ETH)Approved300,000 RUBUSDTApproved300,000 RUBPresident Vladimir Putin signed the law “On digital currencies and digital rights” in August, putting it into effect on September 1. Until July 2027, some limited direct peer-to-peer crypto deals are still permitted.

Sberbank is one of nine companies on the Bank of Russia’s register of exchange operators, alongside other major Russian institutions such as VTB and T-Invest Lab. The depository register includes five entities, featuring VTB and Atomyze. Currently, Sberbank, VTB, and Atomyze are all subject to Western sanctions in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and authorities have accused Moscow of using digital assets to attempt to bypass these restrictions.

In brief Zcash rose 8.5% in 24 hours to $1,215.85, the best performer among the largest tokens. Total crypto market cap climbed 1.68% to $2.78 trillion, while the Fear & Greed Index sits at a neutral 51. Oil near $110 a barrel and Treasury yields above 5% remain the main threat to the rebound. Crypto markets bounced on Tuesday, and Zcash led the rebound. The privacy coin rose 8.5% in 24 hours to $1,215.85, lifting its market capitalization to $20.57 billion.

Bitcoin gained 1.57% to $83,195, and Ethereum climbed 2.90% to $2,463.35. Nearly every major crypto asset that isn’t a stablecoin finished the day higher.

Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.The broader market followed. Total crypto market capitalization rose 1.68% to $2.78 trillion, and the CMC20 index, which tracks the 20 largest cryptocurrencies, gained 1.45% to $169.87 per unit, meaning the samller caps played a more relevant role in today’s surge. This was also expected after days of heavy losses, especially among the coins with the largest market capitalizations and most trading volume.

The bounce followed a rebound in tech. Chip and AI stocks recovered on Monday from last week's selloff, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining about 1.1%, and crypto has often moved in step with technology shares. Bitcoin also found buyers near $80,000 to $81,000

Money from traditional investors helped. Bitcoin and other crypto exchange-traded funds, which let investors hold the assets through a regular brokerage account, recorded net inflows of $526.7 million,. Monday's inflows were the biggest in a month.

Bitcoin ETF flows. Image: DecryptTreasury yields remain the main pressure point, with the 10-year note above 5%. A yield is the annual return investors demand for lending to the U.S. government. When it climbs, safe bonds compete with riskier assets like crypto and stocks for the same money.

The macro backdrop is still tense. Brent crude oil trades near $110 a barrel, and expensive oil feeds inflation by raising the cost of fuel, shipping and goods. Higher inflation raises the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates high or even raises them again, which pushes bond yields up. Higher yields pull money out of risk assets, so crypto tends to fall when oil spikes and rise when it cools.

Zcash outran everyone for several reasons. It had dropped about 25% over the past month, so the bounce partly reflects an oversold market in which traders who had borrowed to bet on higher prices were already forced out through liquidations. Liquidations happen when an exchange automatically closes a borrowed-money position after losses reach a set limit, which adds selling pressure. With that selling spent, the price had room to snap back.

Zcash price data. Image: Investing.comZcash also has its own set of potential catalysts. Developers are due to decide on the NU7 network upgrade today, and traders often buy ahead of such events. Privacy coins have also been strong lately. Competing privacy coin Monero is up 15.29% over seven days to $609.87.

Zcash is a high-beta asset, meaning it moves harder than the market in both directions. It’s up 8.5% today compared to Bitcoin's 1.57% gain. It is up only 1.17% over the last seven days, so the day's jump has not yet erased the month's decline.

Crypto market sentiment at the moment is broadly neutral. The Fear & Greed Index, a 0-to-100 gauge of market mood where lower readings mean fear and higher readings mean greed, reads 51. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stands at 60. A reading of 75 or higher signals altcoin season, 25 or below signals Bitcoin season, and 60 sits in between, so neither camp has control.

The next test is policy. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28, and traders will watch whether it signals further rate hikes.

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The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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The Swiss regulator cleared a retail exchange-traded fund that holds bitcoin directly, without naming the fund or its issuer, and warned that the investment remains highly risky.

Swiss regulator FINMA approves the country's first retail bitcoin ETF

Posted October 20, 2026 at 9:21 am ET.

Switzerland’s financial markets regulator has approved the country’s first exchange-traded fund that holds bitcoin directly, and it is open to retail investors. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) announced the decision on Oct. 20, saying it had seen growing interest in crypto investments, especially bitcoin.

FINMA did not name the fund, its issuer, where it will list, or when trading will begin. The regulator said other fund providers have also filed or announced plans to file for bitcoin ETFs of their own.

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An Exemption for Bitcoin Under Swiss law, the product is classed as an “other fund for alternative investments” carrying a specific risk. To approve it, FINMA granted an exemption from the risk diversification rules that would normally apply to such a fund. The regulator pointed to bitcoin’s lengthy trading record and its heavy volume relative to other cryptocurrencies as the basis for that exception.

The approval comes with conditions. Supervised institutions must take steps to reduce operational and custody risks in line with guidance FINMA issued on Jan. 12, 2026. Point-of-sale conduct rules under Switzerland’s Financial Services Act (FinSA) also apply, which FINMA said should give buyers more protection than they would have when buying cryptocurrencies directly. The fund’s documents are expected to spell out its risks clearly.

A Warning Attached FINMA paired the approval with a caution. Bitcoin investments “remain highly risky,” it said in the release, even when held through an approved ETF, and because of crypto’s volatility “the capital invested may lose a significant amount of its value.” The regulator told investors to weigh that, particularly when deciding how much to put in.

For firms offering crypto-based financial instruments, FinSA’s conduct rules “must be strictly adhered to,” FINMA said in the same statement, including clear warnings about volatility and the chance of losses, along with careful suitability assessments.

The decision builds on an earlier step. In 2021, FINMA authorized a fund that invests mainly in a basket of cryptocurrencies, but that product was limited to qualified investors. The new approval is the first to bring a fund holding bitcoin directly to Swiss retail buyers.

Related Listen: MSBT Is Cheapest But IBIT Likely Still Can’t Be Beat for This Reason

AI-assisted content: This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and was reviewed, edited, and fact-checked by a member of the Unchained editorial team before publication.

Ethereum risks slipping toward $2,300 as significant capital continues to exit US spot ETH exchange-traded funds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement. Even as Bitcoin ETFs see renewed investor demand, Ethereum funds experienced another week of net withdrawals, highlighting a notable divergence in institutional sentiment toward the two major cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum ETF outflows accelerate, Bitcoin attracts inflowsBased on recent figures from Farside Investors, Ethereum funds recorded $103.3 million in net outflows on October 19, led by $95.4 million withdrawn from BlackRock’s ETHA product. This marks the fourth consecutive session of negative flows for Ethereum ETFs, with cumulative redemptions totaling roughly $362.8 million from October 14 to 19.

Over the prior week, ETH funds also saw $320.1 million in outflows between October 12 and 16. Additional withdrawals from Fidelity’s FETH and Grayscale’s ETHE, at $6 million and $1.9 million respectively, contributed to the total losses.

While ETH funds saw mounting redemptions, Bitcoin ETFs benefited from robust inflows during the same period, collecting $526.7 million on October 19 alone. This resulted in a striking divergence of over $630 million between the two asset classes, as institutional investors continued to favor Bitcoin amid shifting market conditions.

The latest selloff previously pushed Ethereum below the key $2,500 level. Rising US bond yields and widespread liquidations have also weighed on crypto valuations, constraining ETH’s recent price recovery.

Ethereum ETFs have registered back-to-back outflows, whereas Bitcoin products have attracted renewed inflows, underlining a clear shift in institutional preference.

Bitmine accumulates more ETH, approaching 5% supply markDespite the negative trend in Ethereum ETFs, Bitmine Immersion Technologies has intensified its accumulation. In an update filed with the SEC on October 19, the company confirmed acquiring an additional 12,535 ETH, taking its total holdings to 6,041,481 tokens. Bitmine now controls about 4.9% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, with most of its tokens already staked.

However, the value of Bitmine’s assets dropped from $16.2 billion to $15.1 billion in a single week as overall market prices declined, underscoring how falling valuations can offset the impact of ongoing purchases. The company has signaled that its 5% supply target is near, which could affect the pace of future accumulation, though it has not specified when buying might pause.

Bitmine’s rapid accumulation has made it the largest publicly traded ETH treasury holder, but its progress toward a 5% supply share adds uncertainty about whether this buying trend will continue.

Technical outlook and trader strategies amid Fed uncertaintyFor traders monitoring ETH’s short-term direction, the $2,350–$2,370 range remains a critical technical zone. A solid move below this level could open the door to further downside, potentially bringing $2,300 into focus if ETF outflows persist and financial conditions tighten as the Federal Reserve prepares for its October 28 decision.

If Ethereum can recover and close above $2,500, analysts identify $2,600 as a likely next resistance, with $2,700 possible if positive momentum returns. However, these are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed targets, given the ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Volatility in the broader market continues to be shaped by central bank policies, persistent inflation risk, and high Treasury yields, which complicate efforts by ETH to mount a sustainable recovery.

In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, switching between apps for charts, news, and portfolio management leaves traders at a disadvantage. As a result, more investors are consolidating their tools. Smart traders now turn to privacy-first solutions like CryptoAppsy to get live charts, tailored price alerts, news for specific coins, and crucial macro data combined on one screen—without even needing an account.

BlackRock has applied for another Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The new product is designed to give investors some protection against losing money while still maintaining some of the possible gains. The filing is the latest indication of the asset manager’s increasingly active approach to investing in Bitcoin.

BlackRock Files for PBIT Bitcoin ETF BlackRock filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Monday to launch the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF. The fund will be listed on the exchanges under the symbol “PBIT”.

On X, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Analyst James Seyffart posted a note on X explaining the filing. He termed the product a “buffer” Bitcoin ETF. Investors would get some protection against losses and forgo some reward for their investment.

The fund would be based on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), Seyffart said. These would define the fund’s investment outcomes, which would assist in the establishment of the fund’s defined investment outcomes.

He wrote, “Notably, this is the third Bitcoin ETF filing from them. Still only have Bitcoin and Ethereum products — no other cryptos.”

Notably, this is the third Bitcoin ETF filing from them. Still only have Bitcoin and Ethereum products — no other cryptos. Also, this product will hold $IBIT as the underlying asset and will write/buy options around it to generate the defined outcomes. It will be a 40 Act fund.

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 19, 2026

The strategic structure of the fund is designed to be attractive to investors who are looking to get exposure to Bitcoin with defined risks. The level of protection and the upside limit, however, will be contingent on the ultimate conditions of the fund.

IBIT Remains BlackRock’s Flagship Bitcoin ETF BlackRock has introduced IBIT in January 2024. The fund has since more than doubled to $65.1 billion in assets under management, as tracked by The Block’s Bitcoin ETF tracker.

The asset manager continued to grow its products in June. It introduced its iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, aiming to post monthly income via options and offer Bitcoin exposure.

PBIT would be another strategy to this list. While the primary exposure of the proposed fund will be Bitcoin, some option income could also be included with the goal of balancing potential gains with downside protection.

This structure does not offer investors complete protection from investment risk. The upside cap may also stifle returns if the price of Bitcoin rises sharply.

Asset Management Yet To Expand Beyond BTC & ETH Additionally, Seyffart emphasized that BlackRock has only a few crypto products. In the last few years, other issuers have launched ETFs that are correlated with XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin.

BlackRock, however, is still sticking to its Bitcoin and Ethereum products. The PBIT filing does not bring about exposure to another cryptocurrency, but it does expand its Bitcoin offerings.

Now, the market’s eyes are on the ETF’s protection threshold, upside cap and management fee as the process of registration continues.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust took in $665.2 million in net inflows on Monday, October 19, 2026. On a day when several rivals lost money, that one fund did most of the lifting for the entire category.

Spot ether ETFs had a rougher start to the week. They posted $103.3 million in net outflows, extending a streak of redemptions that had already been building.

One fund, one direction
The fund, which trades under the ticker IBIT, was the clear standout of the session. Its $665.2 million haul came while two of its best-known competitors moved the other way.

Fidelity’s FBTC recorded $83.6 million in outflows. Grayscale’s GBTC shed $54.9 million.

Put those together and US spot Bitcoin ETFs finished the day with a combined net inflow of $526.7 million.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself traded between $78,700 and $82,800 during this period.

Ether funds keep leaking
The picture for ether products was the mirror image. Spot ether ETFs lost $103.3 million in net flows on Monday.

That followed a week of steady withdrawals. For the week ending October 16, outflows from spot ether ETFs reached approximately $320 million.

For context on how these products work, a spot ETF holds the underlying asset directly. Buying a share of IBIT gives an investor exposure to Bitcoin’s price through an ordinary brokerage account, with no wallet or private keys to manage.

What the split could signal
The research behind these figures frames the IBIT inflow as a possible sign of strong institutional interest in Bitcoin. It also suggests that, given Bitcoin’s relatively steady trading range, the inflow may point to a strategic accumulation phase by larger investors.

The ether side tells a more cautious story. The same research suggests the contrasting performance of Bitcoin and ether ETFs points to a more guarded outlook on ether, with sentiment and market dynamics that might favor Bitcoin in the short term.

By mid-October 2026, cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs had surpassed $56 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT consistently capturing the largest market share. Spot Ether ETFs entered October 2026 with net outflows exceeding $950 million for the month to date.

For now, Monday’s data offers a clear snapshot: a $526.7 million net gain for spot Bitcoin ETFs, nearly all of it explained by a single BlackRock fund, alongside a $103.3 million drain from ether products.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management now expects Bitcoin to beat US stocks, gold, and REITs over the next ten years. That forecast comes from the bank’s “Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2027” report.

The numbers behind the forecast
The report was unveiled around October 19, 2026. It puts Bitcoin’s expected compound return at 10% a year, ahead of US large-cap equities at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.

According to the research findings, Bitcoin is now the highest-returning asset class in the history of the report’s long-term projections. It also marks the first time Bitcoin has appeared in J.P. Morgan’s annual LTCMA at all.

The report pegs Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with roughly 18% for large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold.

J.P. Morgan estimates Bitcoin’s annualized arithmetic return at 20.9%, roughly double the 10% compound figure. Arithmetic return is the simple average of each year’s gain or loss. Compound return is what an investor actually ends up with after holding through the ups and downs. Big drawdowns eat into compounding: lose half your money and you need to double it just to get back to even.

A forecast, not a recommendation
Bitcoin is included in the return projections, but it is left out of the report’s sample portfolio allocations. J.P. Morgan is willing to say what it thinks Bitcoin might earn, but is not yet willing to tell clients how much of it to own.

Bitcoin is also the only digital asset in the document. No other tokens appear anywhere in the LTCMA assumptions.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan described the moment as a shift in how institutions view Bitcoin, noting the asset has moved from something big firms opposed to something they now build into formal forecasts.

How J.P. Morgan got here
The bank’s research teams have previously set shorter-term price targets around $170,000 and reiterated a long-term parity level of $266,000. That figure reflects a scenario in which Bitcoin matches gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.

Bitcoin currently trades near $82,000. The shorter-term target implies roughly a doubling from current levels, and the parity scenario implies considerably more.

What this means for investors and institutions
The gap between 20.9% arithmetic and 10% compound returns shows how much of Bitcoin’s theoretical upside gets consumed by its own turbulence. Bitcoin’s 55% volatility makes that gap unusually large compared to equities and gold.

The exclusion from sample portfolios marks the gap between acknowledging an asset and actually recommending it. If a future edition of the LTCMA moves Bitcoin from the forecast table into model allocations, that would mark a more consequential shift.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

15h05 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

A trader engaged nearly 98 million dollars on a rise in bitcoin with a 40x leverage on Hyperliquid. At the time of the report published on October 18, a decrease of only 1.6% threatened to trigger the liquidation of this particularly risky position.

In brief

A trader bets nearly 98 million dollars on the rise of Bitcoin with a 40x leverage on Hyperliquid.
This position rests on only 2.85 million dollars of margin.
A 1.6% drop in bitcoin could trigger its liquidation, estimated at 79,828 dollars.
The high leverage exposes the trader to quick losses despite small market fluctuations.
The account already shows nearly 9.8 million dollars in cumulative losses over seven days.

A $98 million position supported by $2.85 million
The observed account controlled 1205.31 BTC through a perpetual contract. Its long position showed a notional value of 97.87 million dollars, with an average entry price of 81,913.80 dollars. The trader was therefore betting on a rise of bitcoin above this threshold.

The use of a 40x leverage explains the gap between the size of the bet and the capital actually mobilized. Here are the main data recorded on the account :

An exposure of 97.87 million dollars ;
About 2.85 million dollars deposited as margin ;
An effective leverage of 34.33 ;
An estimated liquidation price at 79,828 dollars ;
An unrealized loss of 866,467 dollars ;
Nearly 86,952 dollars already paid in financing fees.

The figure of 98 million therefore does not correspond to the personal amount the trader risks losing. It designates the total value of his exposure after applying leverage. The direct loss mainly rests on the margin employed, even if previous account operations can weigh on the overall balance.

At the time of observation, bitcoin was trading around 81,117 dollars on Bitstamp. Only 1,289 dollars separated its price from the liquidation level, about a 1.59% gap. However, the market has moved since this snapshot, and the position might have been reduced, reinforced, or closed.

40x leverage leaves almost no margin for error
A perpetual contract allows speculation on the price of an asset without an expiration date. With a long position, the trader gains if the BTC rises and loses if it declines. Leverage multiplies these variations relative to the capital engaged.

At 40 times the stake, a few points of adverse variation are enough to absorb most of the margin. The unrealized loss of 866,467 dollars already represented a negative return of 30.4% on the funds engaged. The account had no additional available margin at the time of the report.

The position used isolated margin mode. In this system, the collateral allocated to the bet remains separate from the rest of the portfolio. Liquidation therefore mainly threatens the amount reserved for this operation, rather than all assets potentially held on the account.

However, Hyperliquid does not rely solely on the last price shown by a spot platform. Its mechanism takes into account a reference price, margin level, and protocol-specific rules. The 79,828 dollar threshold was thus an estimate liable to change if the trader added collateral or reduced exposure.

The account had already lost $9.8 million in one week
Statistics published by Hyperbot show that the difficulties extended beyond this single position. Over seven days, the account showed a cumulative loss close to 9.78 million dollars and a maximum drawdown of 78.77% from its previous peak.

Its history counted 3,763 operations, but only 16.67% of them ended with a gain. The portfolio remained 100% exposed to the rise of bitcoin, without a short position to cushion a new fall. These figures describe an aggressive strategy but do not identify its real owner.

A forced closure of such a position could briefly increase selling pressure. The system would have to sell part or all of the exposure to cover losses. Its effect on the market would depend on the order book depth, liquidation speed, and available buyers.

This bet mostly illustrates the risk of extreme leverage. An exposure close to 100 million dollars can rest on less than 3 million margin, but a usual variation of the bitcoin price can then quickly erase the engaged capital. The 79,828 dollar level remains the main threshold to watch as long as the position remains open and unchanged.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin’s recent decline has not undermined its broader recovery prospects, as reduced leverage and easing selling pressure suggest the market remains structurally healthy, according to Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital.

Bitcoin is trading near $82,700 after recovering from a recent drop below $80,500, outperforming Ethereum and the broader altcoin market despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

The leading crypto asset fell from approximately $86,000 before stabilizing in the low $80,000 range, as weakness in technology stocks and elevated Treasury yields weighed on investor appetite for risk assets.

Fakhro attributed the decline primarily to broader macroeconomic pressures rather than crypto specific factors in commentary shared with Crypto Briefing, noting that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed to its highest level since June.

Despite the downturn, Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum and the wider altcoin market, finding support near the average acquisition price of spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund investors.

Lower leverage supports Bitcoin’s recovery
Fakhro said derivatives market conditions suggest Bitcoin has absorbed recent selling without experiencing a major liquidation cascade.

Funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since June, while open interest has declined to five month lows, indicating traders had already reduced leveraged exposure before the latest decline.

The analyst argued that reduced leverage leaves the market in a healthier position, lowering the risk of forced selling during another period of volatility.

He also pointed to changes in Bitcoin’s ownership structure, suggesting that substantial amounts of older supply have moved into the hands of investors who accumulated near current prices and remained invested through the recent market downturn.

With fewer persistent sellers, Fakhro believes a recovery in demand could support further gains once broader market sentiment improves.

He maintained his bullish outlook after previously identifying accumulation opportunities when Bitcoin was trading in the mid $60,000 range.

Inflation and rising oil prices complicate Fed outlook
Bitcoin’s next major test could come from the Federal Reserve’s October 27 and 28 policy meeting, as persistent inflation and elevated energy prices complicate the outlook for interest rates.

US consumer prices increased 3.7% annually in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August and exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, reached 2.6%, reflecting continued price pressures across the economy.

Meanwhile, oil prices have remained elevated amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude surged to approximately $110 per barrel last week before retreating toward $108 on Monday, as traders assessed potential additional Russian oil supplies following changes to US sanctions.

Higher energy costs have reinforced inflation concerns, raising questions about whether the Fed will need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

According to CME FedWatch probabilities reported Monday, traders assigned approximately an 85% chance that the central bank would keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% this month, with roughly 15% odds of a quarter point increase.

Despite expectations for an October pause, markets continue to price in the possibility of additional tightening before year end, with December rate hike probabilities approaching 92%.

Elevated borrowing costs and persistent inflation could continue weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin, particularly if energy prices resume their upward trajectory.

For Fakhro, however, the recent decline has not undermined Bitcoin’s broader recovery prospects.

The analyst considers weakness toward the low $80,000 range a potential accumulation opportunity, supported by reduced leverage, diminishing selling pressure and stronger demand than the rest of the crypto market.

He cautioned that a decisive break below that support area would warrant a more defensive outlook, while the upcoming Fed decision could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recovery or faces another period of macroeconomic volatility.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

20h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

Can bitcoin reach 100000 dollars before the end of 2026? Bitwise considers this scenario still possible thanks to institutional demand, while LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars in the face of the return of inflation and rate hike risks.

In brief Bitwise believes that bitcoin could exceed 100000 dollars before the end of 2026. Institutional purchases and ETFs support the upside prospects for Bitcoin. LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars by the end of December. US inflation and the risk of new Fed rate hikes are slowing the market. Sustained crossing of 90000 dollars could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars. Arguments supporting bitcoin at 100000 dollars Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, maintains a positive view despite the pullback of bitcoin around 82000 dollars. He believes that several underlying factors can support the market in the last weeks of 2026.

The analyst summarizes his scenario in a cautious statement :

We believe bitcoin will end the year higher, potentially above 100000 dollars.

This projection is based on several drivers :

Purchases made by institutional investors via ETF ; Accumulation of bitcoins by some companies ; Search for rare assets in the face of inflation ; Increase in public debt ; Progressive improvement of the US regulatory framework. Cryptocurrency investment products have recorded about 11.1 billion dollars in inflows since mid-July, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. US spot bitcoin ETFs would have received nearly 6 billion dollars in the third quarter, including about 3.5 billion dollars in August.

This demand can reduce the amount of bitcoin available on the market. However, it does not guarantee an immediate rise. Butterfill points out that purchases have slowed and a real rebound will require regular institutional inflows.

A move from 82000 to 100000 dollars would represent an increase of close to 22%. Such a move remains possible in a volatile market, but it requires a significant improvement in the financial climate before December 31.

US inflation weakens the bullish scenario LO takes a more reserved view. Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at the company, rather expects bitcoin to evolve between 85000 and 95000 dollars until the end of the year.

This caution is mainly explained by the latest US data. The consumer price index rose by 0.6% in September compared to August and by 3.7% year on year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% over one month and by 2.6% year on year.

The rise in gasoline played a major role. This component jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in prices. These figures reinforced fears of a new tightening of US monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve had already raised its key rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. A new hike would make risk-free investments more remunerative and reduce the liquidity available for volatile assets like bitcoin.

According to McCarthy, a return of BTC towards 100000 dollars would require a drop in oil prices, a slowdown in inflation, and a change in expectations regarding the Fed. The market would notably have to abandon the hypothesis of a rate hike in December in favor of a pause.

The 90000 dollar threshold could revive the market Derivatives offer a third scenario. Luca Invernizzi, trader at Laser Digital, a Nomura subsidiary, believes that the recent retreat removed some of the most fragile leveraged positions. This purge could make the market more stable if buyers return.

The 90000 dollar level now constitutes an important technical zone. Sustained crossing could force traders betting on a decline to buy back bitcoin to close their positions. These forced purchases could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars.

Conversely, the absence of new flows into ETFs and persistent inflation would limit this potential. Investors will therefore watch the next Fed decisions, energy prices, and institutional inflows.

The forecasts of Bitwise and LO are not certainties. They describe two trajectories that depend primarily on the macroeconomic context. Before aiming for 100000 dollars, bitcoin must first retake 90000 dollars and maintain this level despite rate pressure.

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Super League stockholders have approved all proposals tied to Metaplanet‘s 2,100 BTC investment, clearing the way for the Nasdaq-listed company to be renamed Superplanet and become the Japanese firm’s U.S. Bitcoin treasury vehicle.

The proposals passed at Super League Enterprise, Inc.’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, held Friday and were disclosed Monday morning. The transaction itself was first announced in August.

Under the definitive agreement, Metaplanet, Inc. will contribute 2,100 Bitcoin and $2.5 million in cash through its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, Metaplanet Holdings, Inc. 

JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan's Metaplanet to buy Super League for 2,100 BTC and $2.5 million 👀

This will give the 2nd-largest corporate BTC holder a U.S. listed Bitcoin treasury platform! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/0gucAALjAX

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 19, 2026

In exchange, Metaplanet receives 44,859,400 shares of common stock at $3.00 per share, along with preferred stock and warrants.

At closing, Super League will be renamed “Superplanet, Inc.” and trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “SUPA.” Its advertising and media activation business will continue as a distinct operating segment, and Matt Edelman will remain chief executive officer.

Among the measures stockholders approved were the issuance of common stock and warrants to Metaplanet and the corporate name change. The proposals also included an increase in authorized preferred shares from 10 million to 100 million, according to a summary of the meeting posted on X.

“Super League stockholders have voted to approve the proposed Metaplanet transaction, an important step in our transformation from a Bitcoin treasury company into a global Bitcoin-native financial platform,” Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich wrote on X. 

“Upon close, Superplanet will be our U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury platform, providing direct access to U.S. capital markets and greater flexibility to opportunistically raise capital.”

Edelman framed the vote similarly in the company’s announcement: “Their approval brings us one step closer to redefining what this company can become.”

Closing is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions, including required filings with the Nasdaq Capital Market. The shareholder approvals represent a required step but not the final one.

Super League said the arrangement is intended to establish conditions governing Metaplanet’s ability to dispose of its equity holdings following the transaction. The company did not provide details of exceptions to those restrictions in its announcement.

Metaplanet held 43,000 BTC as of August 18, describing itself as the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury among publicly traded companies. The combined structure is intended to give the group two listed Bitcoin treasury platforms — one on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, one on Nasdaq — each with its own investor base and reporting currency.

Super League connects brands with what it describes as a 3.3 billion-person global gaming population through advertising and branded content programs across gaming and digital media platforms. Metaplanet is a Tokyo-listed company building Bitcoin-based financial products and infrastructure.

Shares of Super League moved higher on the news. 

Mathew Di Salvo

Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.

TLDR

Mt. Gox has moved its creditor repayment deadline from Oct. 31, 2026, to Oct. 31, 2027, after receiving court approval.
Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi said many creditors remain unpaid due to incomplete procedures or problems during processing.
Base, Early Lump-Sum and Intermediate Repayments are largely complete for creditors who met all requirements.
The notice did not share how many creditors are unpaid or how much Bitcoin is left to distribute.
Mt. Gox held more than 34,500 BTC in June 2026, after moving 10,422 BTC worth about $739 million.

Mt. Gox has moved its creditor repayment deadline back by one year. The new deadline is Oct. 31, 2027, after a court approved the change.

The deadline had been set for Oct. 31, 2026. The extension gives creditors more time to finish the steps needed to receive their funds.

The change was announced in an Oct. 16 notice from rehabilitation trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi. He said many creditors still have not been paid.

Why Mt. Gox Extended the Bitcoin Repayment Deadline
Kobayashi said some creditors have not completed the required procedures. Others finished the steps but ran into problems while their payments were being processed.

According to the trustee, Base Repayment, Early Lump-Sum Repayment and Intermediate Repayment are largely complete. This applies to creditors who submitted the right information and had no issues.

The court-approved extension gives the trustee 12 more months to keep making payments. Distributions will continue where repayment remains reasonably practicable.

The notice did not add a new repayment category. It also did not change the amounts creditors are entitled to receive.

The announcement did not give an updated count of unpaid creditors. It also did not say how much Bitcoin or other assets are left, or give a timetable for individual payments.

A Long History of Delays
The original repayment target was October 2023. Since then, the deadline has been pushed back several times.

In October 2024, the trustee moved the deadline to October 2025. In October 2025, it was moved again to Oct. 31, 2026. At that time, about 19,500 creditors had received payments.

Mt. Gox was a Tokyo-based exchange that once handled about 70% of global Bitcoin trading. It filed for bankruptcy in 2014 after losing about 850,000 BTC.

The exchange later entered civil rehabilitation. Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash began in July 2024 through exchanges including Kraken and Bitstamp. Custodian BitGo also received Bitcoin as part of the process.

Kraken confirmed it received creditor funds on July 16, 2024. It then began crediting eligible users, some of whom had waited more than a decade.

Mt. Gox still held large Bitcoin reserves this year. On June 2, it moved 10,422 BTC worth about $739 million, according to blockchain data cited by Arkham Intelligence.

At the time of that June report, Mt. Gox held more than 34,500 BTC. Those figures are historical and do not show the current balance.

The Oct. 16 notice did not disclose a new wallet balance or confirm further transfers. It also did not name any exchange set to receive another distribution.

Creditors can also use a separate inquiry form without logging in. However, the trustee said identity verification may be harder in those cases.

Creditors can send questions through the online rehabilitation claims system. The trustee warned that responses may be delayed because of the high volume of inquiries.

Standard Chartered has enabled eligible wealthy clients in the United Arab Emirates to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through their existing bank accounts.

Standard Chartered has begun offering direct cryptocurrency trading to its wealthy clients classified as professional investors in the United Arab Emirates. Under the new service, eligible clients will be able to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum using their existing bank accounts.

According to the bank’s statement, custody and settlement operations will be conducted within the Standard Chartered ecosystem via a closed-loop model. Therefore, customers will not need to create a separate cryptocurrency wallet, store private keys, or open an account on a third-party exchange.

The service combines Standard Chartered’s asset and retail banking units with its corporate and investment banking activities. Transactions are conducted through the Zodia Markets platform, which is backed by the bank’s venture capital arm, SC Ventures.

Standard Chartered announced that it has received the necessary license approval from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority for the service. The bank states that this product is the first of its kind offered by an international bank in the United Arab Emirates. This also marks Standard Chartered’s first foray into offering cryptocurrency trading directly to wealthy individual clients in any country.

The bank had previously launched institutional Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading through its UK arm, later expanding its institutional service to the UAE. It also offers crypto ETFs, structured products, and over-the-counter derivatives to eligible clients.

It shouldn’t be assumed that the service is open to all individual customers. Users need to meet professional investor requirements, and initially, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported. While Standard Chartered has stated its intention to expand the system to other markets, it has not announced any new countries or implementation schedule.

*This is not investment advice.

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