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BOK Financial delivered record Q2 loan production, best-in-class credit metrics, and raised FY26 guidance, but shares reflect full operational excellence. At $142 per share, BOK Financial trades at approximately 13.6x forward EPS, which falls within our estimated fair value range of $140–$149. Loan growth, fee income diversity, and exceptional credit quality support the premium, but H2 net interest margin expansion is the key variable to monitor.

BOK Financial NASDAQ: BOKF reported higher second-quarter 2026 earnings and record loan production, while executives said credit quality remained strong and raised the company’s full-year loan growth outlook.

The Tulsa-based financial services company earned $176.5 million, or $2.92 per diluted share, in the quarter, Chief Executive Officer Stacy Kymes said on the company’s earnings call. Adjusted for a net gain tied to the exchange of Visa Class B shares and a small securities portfolio repositioning, earnings were $156.5 million, or $2.59 per share.

Kymes described the quarter as “excellent” and said it reflected the company’s positioning for continued growth. He cited record quarterly loan growth, record fiduciary and asset management revenue, expense discipline and “outstanding” credit performance.

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Loan Growth Hits Company Record Total loans increased 3.4% sequentially, or 13.7% annualized, rising $896 million during the quarter. Kymes said that represented record new loan production for a single quarter in the company’s history. Year over year, loans were up 11.5%.

The growth was broad-based across business lines and geographies, according to Kymes. Nearly 70% of the year-over-year growth came from the company’s commercial and industrial portfolio.

Core C&I loans, which include the combined services and general business portfolios, rose 3.9% from the prior quarter and 11.1% from a year earlier. Kymes said the growth reflected a long-term strategy of investing in talent and deepening client relationships.

“As we’ve often said, growth follows relationships,” Kymes said.

Healthcare loans increased 3.2%, reflecting what management had previously described as strong activity and pipeline levels entering the quarter. Energy loans grew 1.6%. Commercial real estate loans were up marginally from the prior quarter and 6.6% year over year.

Mortgage finance also contributed to loan growth. Outstanding balances were $452 million at quarter-end, up $224 million, with active warehouse facilities totaling $870 million in commitments. Kymes said the business recorded its first month above breakeven during the quarter, less than a year after funding its first loan.

During the Q&A portion of the call, Kymes said the company expects mortgage finance to remain a tailwind in the second half of the year, while noting some seasonality in the business.

Credit Metrics Remain Strong BOK Financial reported nonperforming assets not guaranteed by the U.S. government of $55 million, up $2.8 million from the prior quarter. Nonperforming assets as a percentage of period-end loans and repossessed assets remained consistent with the prior quarter at 20 basis points.

Committed criticized assets decreased during the quarter and remained low relative to historical standards, Kymes said. Net charge-offs were $500,000 in the quarter and averaged three basis points over the last 12 months.

Kymes said the company saw no charge-off patterns or concentrations raising concerns about particular business lines or geographies. He also said BOK Financial continued to have no exposure to private credit facilities.

No provision for credit losses was required for the quarter, consistent with the prior quarter. Management said improvement in economic forecast assumptions was offset by loan growth. The combined allowance for credit losses was $323 million, or 1.19% of outstanding loans.

In response to an analyst question, Kymes said the company’s credit metrics were better than at CECL day one, and that, based on current credit conditions, the allowance ratio “could continue to fall.”

Fee Businesses Show Mixed Results Scott Grauer, Executive Vice President of Wealth Management, said fee income remained a solid contributor to revenue, though total fee income declined $7.8 million sequentially to $202 million.

Total trading revenue, including trading-related net interest income, decreased $9.7 million to $25 million. Grauer said results in the fixed-income business were affected by lower customer activity as longer-term rates increased from March through May. He said activity improved in June as market conditions stabilized.

“Overall, our activity levels were consistent with broader industry trends, which also saw a decline in MBS trading volumes during the quarter,” Grauer said.

Mortgage banking revenue declined $2 million from the prior quarter, which Grauer attributed to elevated long-term rates. Syndication revenue increased $3 million sequentially, supported by strong activity and customer demand, producing a record second quarter for that business.

Fiduciary and asset management revenue set a quarterly record, rising $4.5 million from the prior quarter. Grauer said the increase reflected higher trust fees and seasonal tax preparation fees. In the Q&A, he said seasonal tax preparation accounted for roughly one-third of the quarter-over-quarter increase.

Assets under management and administration increased $5.7 billion during the quarter to $129.3 billion, driven by higher market valuations and customer expansion. Compared with the same period last year, AUMA rose $11.4 billion, or nearly 10%.

Net Interest Income Rises; Expenses Controlled Chief Financial Officer Martin Grunst said net interest income increased $9.3 million, while the reported net interest margin expanded by 1 basis point. Excluding trading, core net interest income rose $6.5 million and core margin declined 2 basis points.

Grunst said core margin and net interest income benefited from loan and deposit growth and fixed-rate asset repricing. Those positives were offset by a 3-basis-point negative impact related to cash margin posted on behalf of energy derivative customers as oil prices moved higher. He said the impact was temporary and that the majority of the margin had already been returned as energy prices declined.

The company recognized a $30.9 million pre-tax gain from the exchange of Visa Class B shares. Grunst said BOK Financial used part of the gain to reposition a small portion of its securities portfolio, realizing $4.6 million of pre-tax losses. He said the move would improve yields on $268 million of reinvested securities.

Total expenses increased $7.5 million, driven by an $8.9 million rise in deferred compensation expense that was offset by gains recorded in other gains and losses. Excluding deferred compensation, total expenses declined $1.4 million. Personnel expense fell $6 million, while non-personnel expense rose $4.6 million, largely due to higher business promotion costs.

Management Raises Loan Growth Outlook BOK Financial raised its full-year 2026 loan growth guidance and now expects loans to grow more than 10%. Grunst said the first-half loan growth was strong and well-diversified.

The company maintained its total revenue guidance of mid-single-digit growth, but now expects to be in the upper portion of that range. Grunst said net interest income is expected to be in the upper half of the company’s $1.42 billion to $1.45 billion range, while fee income is expected to be in the lower half of the $820 million to $845 million range. In the Q&A, management clarified that the Visa gain is included in total revenue guidance but not in fee and commission guidance.

Expense growth is still expected to be in the low single digits, likely toward the lower end of that range. The company expects its full-year efficiency ratio to be approximately 62%, or near 63% excluding the Visa gain.

Management also said provision expense is expected to be below $20 million for full-year 2026.

Kymes said market disruption has created hiring opportunities for the company. BOK Financial added more than 25 teammates during the quarter, including more than 20 in Texas, along with additions in Colorado and Arizona. He said most of the hires were revenue producers and that the quarter’s loan growth was independent of those additions, given the longer sales cycle in C&I lending.

“We are entering the second half of the year from a position of strength, with strong business momentum and a solid foundation for continued growth,” Kymes said in closing remarks.

About BOK Financial (NASDAQ:BOKF)BOK Financial Corporation NASDAQ: BOKF, headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, is a diversified financial services holding company serving businesses, professionals and individuals across the central and western United States. Through its banking subsidiary, BOK Financial offers a full suite of commercial banking, treasury and payment management services, as well as consumer deposit and lending solutions. The company's offerings also encompass wealth management, trust and asset management, investment banking, and insurance products designed to meet the needs of both retail and institutional clients.

The roots of BOK Financial date back to the founding of the Bank of Oklahoma in 1910.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.56 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1.17%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this Regional banking operator would post earnings of $2.3 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.58, delivering a surprise of +12.17%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

BOK Financial, which belongs to the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, posted revenues of $589.4 million for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.46%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $535.26 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

BOK Financial shares have added about 19.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.9%.

What's Next for BOK Financial?While BOK Financial has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for BOK Financial was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.47 on $569.6 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $10.28 on $2.26 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Banks - Southwest is currently in the top 18% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

First Bank (FRBA - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on July 23.

This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.40 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -2.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

First Bank's revenues are expected to be $37.68 million, up 2.6% from the year-ago quarter.

BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) will release its second quarter earnings report after the closing bell on Monday, July 20.

Analysts expect the Tulsa, Oklahoma-based company to report quarterly earnings of $2.47 per share, up from $2.19 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for BOK Financial’s quarterly revenue is $567.39 million. It reported $537.84 million last year, according to Benzinga Pro.

On April 20, BOK Financial posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

Shares of BOK Financial rose 0.6% to close at $139.33 on Wednesday.

Benzinga readers can access the latest analyst ratings on the Analyst Stock Ratings page. Readers can sort by stock ticker, company name, analyst firm, rating change or other variables.

Let’s have a look at how Benzinga’s most-accurate analysts have rated the company in the recent period.

Considering buying BOKF stock? Here’s what analysts think:

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Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This Regional banking operator has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 14.30%.

For the last reported quarter, BOK Financial came out with earnings of $2.58 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.3 per share, representing a surprise of 12.17%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $2.13 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.48 per share, delivering a surprise of 16.43%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for BOK Financial. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

BOK Financial has an Earnings ESP of +3.52% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on July 20, 2026.

Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TULSA, OK / ACCESS Newswire / March 16, 2026 / BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) will host a conference call to review first quarter 2026 financial results at noon central time on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. The call may also include discussion of company developments, forward-looking statements and other material information about business and financial matters. The results are scheduled to be released after the market closes on Monday, April 20, 2026.

The live audio webcast and presentation slides will be available on the company's investor relations website. The conference call can also be accessed by dialing 1.800.715.9871 toll free, or 1.646.307.1963, conference ID: 6617678. A webcast replay will be available shortly after the live call's conclusion on the company's investor relations website or by dialing 1.800.770.2030 and referencing replay PIN 6617678.

About BOK Financial Corporation

BOK Financial Corporation is a $52 billion regional financial services company headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma with $127 billion in assets under management and administration. The company's stock is publicly traded on NASDAQ under the Global Select market listings (BOKF). BOK Financial Corporation's holdings include BOKF, NA; BOK Financial Securities, Inc.; and BOK Financial Private Wealth, Inc. BOKF, NA's holdings include TransFund and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc. BOKF, NA operates banking divisions across eight states as: Bank of Albuquerque; Bank of Oklahoma; Bank of Texas; and BOK Financial in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas and Missouri; as well as having limited purpose offices in Connecticut, Nebraska, Tennessee and Wisconsin. Through its subsidiaries, BOK Financial Corporation provides commercial and consumer banking, brokerage trading, investment, trust and insurance services, mortgage origination and servicing, and an electronic funds transfer network. For more information, visit www.bokf.com.

Contact:

Heather King
Director of Investor Relations
214.676.4666

SOURCE: BOK Financial

Key Takeaways BOK Financial shows stronger upside with margin gains, loan growth and expansion efforts.BOKF expects 2026 NII of $1.44-$1.48B, supported by easing funding costs and stable yields.First Horizon benefits from organic growth and higher yield but faces elevated expenses. In a banking landscape shaped by interest-rate movements and evolving lending dynamics, investors are increasingly focusing on the resilience and growth prospects of regional lenders. Two such banks, BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF - Free Report) and First Horizon Corporation (FHN - Free Report) , stand out for their diversified business models, steady balance sheet growth and distinct strategic priorities.

Let us take a closer look at these banks to uncover key differences in margin trends, expansion strategies and organic growth drivers, and analyze which stock offers better upside potential.

The Case for BOKFThe evolving rate environment is turning supportive for banks like BOK Financial, as easing monetary policy is likely to aid margin expansion. At its March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled a potential cut in 2026, which could lower funding costs and support earnings.

Against this backdrop, BOKF’s net interest income (NII) growth prospects remain solid. With funding costs easing and asset yields stabilizing, margins are expected to improve further. The Fed’s prior rate cuts and expectations of additional easing will likely support continued expansion in NII. Management expects NII to be in the range of $1.44-$1.48 billion for 2026, up from $1.3 billion in 2025, reflecting continued growth momentum.

The company also represents a fundamentally balanced outlook supported by a diversified operating model, steady loan and deposit growth and improving margin trends. It has been focused on diversifying its loan portfolio across energy, healthcare and service lending while continuing to expand lending to individuals. Deposits have also witnessed a rising trend, reflecting a stable funding base. The company is also expanding its mortgage finance business, targeting $1 billion in commitments by 2026, which is expected to contribute meaningfully to loan growth going forward. Management expects loan growth in the upper single digits in 2026 compared with 2025, supported by a strong loan pipeline and improving deposit balances.

Strategic expansion efforts have also strengthened BOK Financial’s growth profile. The company has steadily expanded beyond its core Oklahoma market into select neighboring regions. In 2023, it entered the southeastern United States through a Memphis office, while in 2024, Bank of Texas expanded into the San Antonio market. Additionally, acquisitions over the years, including CoBiz Financial, have enhanced its geographic footprint and asset management capabilities, positioning the company well for long-term growth.

However, rising expenses remain a concern for BOKF. It has been witnessing an increase in operating expenses, caused by continued investments in technology and higher employee-related costs. Going forward, non-interest expenses (excluding FDIC special assessment) are expected to rise at a low single-digit rate in 2026 from the $1.43 billion reported in 2025, keeping the expense base elevated in the near term.

The Case for FHNFirst Horizon’s NII outlook also remains favorable, supported by a combination of rate tailwinds and balance sheet positioning. With the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and signaling the possibility of another cut in 2026, funding costs are expected to stabilize while loan demand improves. Additionally, its asset-sensitive balance sheet, characterized by a meaningful exposure to floating-rate loans, along with its presence in higher-growth markets, is likely to support margin expansion and drive further NII growth in the upcoming period.

The company has also demonstrated robust organic growth, supported by consistent expansion in loans and deposits. This growth has been driven by prior acquisitions as well as the strength of a well-diversified loan portfolio. Management expects this momentum to continue, supported by solid performance in the commercial and industrial portfolio and steady mortgage lending activity. Meanwhile, deposit growth is likely to remain strong, aided by promotional offerings, an increase in non-interest-bearing deposits and strong customer retention. With a balanced mix of regional and specialty banking operations in high-growth markets, FHN remains well-positioned to sustain organic growth.

Expansion efforts have played a crucial role in shaping FHN’s current franchise and growth trajectory. The company’s merger with IBERIABANK Corporation in 2020 marked a transformational step, significantly enhancing its scale, geographic reach and business diversification. The combined entity brought together complementary strengths across the Southeast, creating a stronger regional banking platform with expanded capabilities across commercial, consumer and specialty banking businesses.

As highlighted at the RBC Capital Markets conference of 2026, First Horizon now operates across 12 high-growth Southern states, offering significant expansion opportunities. With a balanced mix of commercial, consumer and specialty banking businesses, the company is well-positioned to drive long-term growth.

However, rising expenses remain a concern for FHN due to higher personnel and occupancy costs, along with continued investments in technology. While the expense base is expected to stay elevated in the near term, management aims to keep adjusted non-interest expenses relatively stable in 2026 compared with the $2.05 billion reported in 2024.

BOKF & FHN: Price Performance, Valuation & Other ComparisonsOver the past year, shares of BOK Financial and First Horizon have rallied 20.7% and 13.4%, respectively, outperforming the industry’s growth of 6.2%.

Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, BOKF is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.67X, while FHN is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 10.29X. FHN is lower than the industry average of 11.77X, while BOKF stock is trading at a premium.

Price-to-Earnings F12M
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Meanwhile, both BOK Financial and First Horizon reward their shareholders handsomely. In October 2024, BOKF raised its quarterly dividend by 3.6% to 57 cents per share. It has a dividend yield of 2.00%. Comparatively, FHN raised its quarterly dividend by 13.3% to 17 cents per share in January 2026. It has a dividend yield of 3.03%. Here, FHN holds an edge over BOKF.

Dividend Yield
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How Do Estimates Compare for BOKF & FHN?The consensus mark for BOKF’s 2026 and 2027 sales suggests year-over-year increases of 3.9% and 5.4%, respectively. Also, the consensus estimate for earnings indicates an 11.8% and 7.2% rise for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Earnings estimates for both years have also been revised upward over the past 60 days.

BOKF Estimate Revision Trend

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FHN’s 2026 and 2027 revenues implies year-over-year growth of 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively. Further, the consensus estimate for earnings indicates a 12.7% and 9.3% rise for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Earnings estimates for both years have remained unchanged over the past 60 days.

FHN Estimate Revision Trend

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BOKF or FHN: Which Stock Has Better Upside?While both BOK Financial and First Horizon offer compelling fundamentals, BOKF appears to present the more favorable upside potential at this stage. Its improving margin outlook, supported by easing funding costs and stable asset yields, along with steady loan growth, positions the company for consistent earnings growth. Additionally, its diversified business model and strategic market expansions provide a solid foundation for long-term growth.

First Horizon remains a strong player with solid organic growth and a favorable NII outlook. Although elevated expenses remain a concern for both companies, BOK Financial’s expansion into the mortgage finance business provides an added advantage.

While FHN offers a more attractive valuation and higher dividend yield, BOKF’s balanced growth profile, improving earnings visibility and upward estimate revisions make it a more compelling investment option for now.

While BOK Financial sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, First Horizon carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

When looking at the last two reports, this Regional banking operator has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 11.07%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the most recent quarter, BOK Financial was expected to post earnings of $2.13 per share, but it reported $2.48 per share instead, representing a surprise of 16.43%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $2.1 per share, while it actually produced $2.22 per share, a surprise of 5.71%.

Price and EPS Surprise

For BOK Financial, estimates have been trending higher, thanks in part to this earnings surprise history. And when you look at the stock's positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), it's a great indicator of a future earnings beat, especially when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

BOK Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on April 20, 2026.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

The market expects BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 20, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis Regional banking operator is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.30 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +23.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $546.8 million, up 8.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for BOK Financial?For BOK Financial, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.22%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that BOK Financial will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that BOK Financial would post earnings of $2.13 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.48, delivering a surprise of +16.43%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

BOK Financial appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

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TULSA, OK / ACCESS Newswire / April 20, 2026 / BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) today reported operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The first quarter 2026 earnings release can be viewed here: https://investor.bokf.com/Q1-2026-Earnings-Full-Release-PDF BOK Financial Corporation will host a conference call to review first quarter 2026 financial results at noon Central time on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.

Key Takeaways BOKF's Q1 EPS of $2.58 beat estimates, rising 38.7% on higher NII, fees and loan growth.Net revenues rose 10.3% as NII grew 8.3% and fees jumped 13.9%, lifting margins and profitability.Loans increased 2.1% but deposits fell 1.9%, while expenses rose and credit metrics were mixed. BOK Financial Corporation's (BOKF - Free Report)  first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.58 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30. The bottom line jumped 38.7% from the prior-year quarter.

BOKF’s results benefited from higher net interest income (NII) and total fees and commissions. An increase in loans was another positive. However, the rise in operating expenses was a major undermining factor.

Net income attributable to shareholders was $155.7 million, which rose 30% year over year.

BOK Financial’s Revenues & Expenses RiseQuarterly net revenues of $553.8 million (net interest income and total other operating revenues) rose 10.3% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $546.8 million.

Net interest income was $342.6 million, up 8.3% year over year. The net interest margin expanded 12 basis points to 2.90%.

Total fees and commissions were $209.8 million, up 13.9% year over year. The rise was driven by an increase in almost all components except other revenues.

Total other operating expenses were $354.2 million, up 1.9% year over year. This rise was mainly driven by business promotion, professional fees and services, net occupancy and equipment, data processing and communications, printing, postage, and supplies, mortgage banking costs and other expense.

The efficiency ratio was 63.21% compared with the prior year quarter’s 68.31%. A fall in the efficiency ratio indicates a rise in profitability.

BOKF’s Loans Rise & Deposits Decline SequentiallyAs of March 31, 2026, total loans were $26.2 billion, up 2.1% from the prior quarter. The increase was driven by growth in commercial loans, commercial real estate loans and loans to individuals.

Total deposits were $38.7 billion, down 1.9% sequentially. The decline was due to lower demand and interest-bearing transaction deposits, partially offset by growth in time and savings deposits.

BOKF Credit Quality: Mixed BagAs of March 31, 2026, non-performing assets were $60 million or 0.23% of outstanding loans and repossessed assets compared with $85.3 million or 0.36% in the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded nil provisions for credit losses, unchanged from the prior-year quarter.

The company recorded net charge-offs of $1.9 million compared with $1.1 million in the year-ago quarter.

The allowance for loan losses was 1.06% of outstanding loans as of March 31, 2026, which declined 12 bps from the year-ago quarter.

BOKF’s Capital Ratios Decline & Profitability Ratios ImproveAs of March 31, 2026, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.61% compared with 13.31% a year earlier. The tier 1 capital ratio and total capital ratio were 12.61% and 14.39%, respectively, compared with 13.31% and 14.54%, as of March 31, 2025.

At the end of the first quarter, return on average equity was 10.49%, up from the year-earlier quarter’s 8.59%. Return on average assets was 1.19%, up from 0.95% a year ago.

BOK Financial’s Share Repurchase UpdateThe company did not repurchase any shares during the first quarter of 2026.

Our View on BOK FinancialBOK Financial’s higher net interest income and solid loan balances continue to support overall performance. The company’s improving profitability ratios are positive. However, rising operating expenses pose a near-term concern.

Performance of Other BanksFirst Horizon Corporation (FHN - Free Report) posted first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of 53 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents. This compares favorably with 42 cents in the year-ago quarter.

FHN’s results benefited from higher NII and a rise in non-interest income, along with improved credit quality. However, the rise in expenses remains a headwind.

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 net operating earnings per share of $4.18, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.02. The bottom line compared favorably with earnings of $3.38 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Results were aided by higher NII and a rise in non-interest income on a year-over-year basis, along with modest loan growth. However, a decline in deposits, higher provisions for credit losses, and elevated expenses acted as headwinds for MTB.

BOK Financial (BOKF) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. This might drive the stock higher in the near term.

Investors interested in Finance stocks should always be looking to find the best-performing companies in the group. Is BOK Financial (BOKF - Free Report) one of those stocks right now? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Finance sector should help us answer this question.

BOK Financial is one of 833 companies in the Finance group. The Finance group currently sits at #5 within the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different sector groups. The average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups is measured, and the sectors are listed from best to worst.

The Zacks Rank emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find stocks with improving earnings outlooks. This system has a long record of success, and these stocks tend to be on track to beat the market over the next one to three months. BOK Financial is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).

Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BOKF's full-year earnings has moved 4.7% higher. This shows that analyst sentiment has improved and the company's earnings outlook is stronger.

Based on the latest available data, BOKF has gained about 9.7% so far this year. Meanwhile, stocks in the Finance group have lost about 0.1% on average. This shows that BOK Financial is outperforming its peers so far this year.

Hamilton Insurance (HG - Free Report) is another Finance stock that has outperformed the sector so far this year. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has returned 10.8%.

In Hamilton Insurance's case, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year increased 2.3% over the past three months. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Breaking things down more, BOK Financial is a member of the Banks - Southwest industry, which includes 19 individual companies and currently sits at #70 in the Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks in this group have gained about 4.1% so far this year, so BOKF is performing better this group in terms of year-to-date returns.

On the other hand, Hamilton Insurance belongs to the Insurance - Multi line industry. This 45-stock industry is currently ranked #186. The industry has moved -4.9% year to date.

BOK Financial and Hamilton Insurance could continue their solid performance, so investors interested in Finance stocks should continue to pay close attention to these stocks.

Can BOKF keep climbing after a 15.9% six-month rally as loans, deposits and fintech partnerships grow despite expense and liquidity headwinds? Let us find out.