Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $80.20, demonstrating a -1.33% change from the preceding day's closing price. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.14% for the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.01%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.57%.

Coming into today, shares of the school bus maker had gained 10.26% in the past month. In that same time, the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector lost 4.03%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.25%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Blue Bird in its forthcoming earnings report. In that report, analysts expect Blue Bird to post earnings of $1.22 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 2.52%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $498.7 million, indicating a 25.3% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $4.74 per share and revenue of $1.74 billion. These totals would mark changes of +8.22% and +17.88%, respectively, from last year.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Blue Bird. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 3.45% higher. Currently, Blue Bird is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Investors should also note Blue Bird's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 17.15. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 19.24, so one might conclude that Blue Bird is trading at a discount comparatively.

It's also important to note that BLBD currently trades at a PEG ratio of 1.04. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The average PEG ratio for the Automotive - Domestic industry stood at 1.04 at the close of the market yesterday.

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 105, putting it in the top 43% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.

Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) closed at $78.07 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.92% move from the prior day. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.28%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 1.09%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.2%.

The school bus maker's shares have seen an increase of 11.86% over the last month, surpassing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 1.57% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.64%.

Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Blue Bird in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.22, showcasing a 2.52% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $498.7 million, up 25.3% from the year-ago period.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $4.74 per share and revenue of $1.74 billion, which would represent changes of +8.22% and +17.88%, respectively, from the prior year.

Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Blue Bird. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.

Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 3.45% higher. Blue Bird is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Looking at valuation, Blue Bird is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 16.79. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 18.61, which means Blue Bird is trading at a discount to the group.

It is also worth noting that BLBD currently has a PEG ratio of 1.02. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. Automotive - Domestic stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.02 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 56, finds itself in the top 23% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.

Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Rivian Automotive?The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.57 a share 22 days away from its upcoming earnings release on July 30, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.67 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Rivian Automotive has an Earnings ESP of +15.24%. Investors should also know that RIVN is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

RIVN is part of a big group of Auto, Tires and Trucks stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) as well.

Blue Bird, which is readying to report earnings on August 5, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.26 a share, and BLBD is 28 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Blue Bird is $1.22, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +3.00%.

RIVN and BLBD's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

I get it. The new world order is supposed to have electric cars and busses eliminating our dependence on oil, solar and clean nuclear is supposed to dominate, and we are all going to have some sort of energy epiphany. The reality of the situation is that, we are not criminals for following the current protocol and the transition will inevitably take much longer than originally expected.

That brings us to today’s Bear of the Day, Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) Blue Bird ((BLBD - Free Report) ). Blue Bird has been one of the market's more surprising winners over the past few years. The school bus manufacturer has capitalized on pricing power, replacement demand, and enthusiasm surrounding electric school buses. The company continues to post solid profits and recently raised its fiscal 2026 guidance after another strong quarter.

The problem is that a lot of that good news may already be priced in. Unit sales actually declined during the latest quarter, with revenue growth increasingly driven by pricing rather than underlying volume expansion. The company's electric bus business remains dependent on government incentives and school district funding cycles, which can be unpredictable. Meanwhile, investors are assigning a premium multiple to a company operating in what is ultimately a cyclical and relatively mature end market.

There are also execution risks ahead. Blue Bird recently acquired full ownership of its Micro Bird joint venture, a deal that broadens its product portfolio but also introduces integration risk and additional operational complexity. At the same time, management has acknowledged navigating tariffs and supply chain pressures, both of which could weigh on margins if costs prove more persistent than expected.

From my perspective, BLBD looks like a classic case of expectations getting ahead of reality. It's a good company with a strong niche, but investors appear to be pricing it as though every school district in America is about to embark on an unlimited replacement cycle and electric adoption story. If bus volumes soften, government funding cools, or margins come under pressure, this stock could quickly remind investors that even great rides eventually hit a speed bump.

Blue Bird is in the Automotive – Domestic industry which ranks in the Bottom 35% of our Zacks Industry Rank. There are other stocks within this industry that are in the good graces of our Zacks Rank. These include Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stocks Federal Signal (FSS) and Xos (XOS).

Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $72.86, demonstrating a +1.85% change from the preceding day's closing price. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.65%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.92%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 3.07%.

Heading into today, shares of the school bus maker had lost 0.46% over the past month, outpacing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 3.63% and lagging the S&P 500's gain of 0.48%.

Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Blue Bird in its upcoming release. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $1.21, reflecting a 1.68% increase from the same quarter last year.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $4.67 per share and a revenue of $0 million, demonstrating changes of +6.62% and 0%, respectively, from the preceding year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Blue Bird. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged. Blue Bird is holding a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) right now.

Looking at valuation, Blue Bird is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.32. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 19.9, which means Blue Bird is trading at a discount to the group.

It's also important to note that BLBD currently trades at a PEG ratio of 0.93. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. Automotive - Domestic stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.93 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 159, finds itself in the bottom 35% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

To follow BLBD in the coming trading sessions, be sure to utilize Zacks.com.

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?

Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) .

Blue Bird currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.38, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by eight brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.38 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.

Of the eight recommendations that derive the current ABR, six are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 75% and 12.5% of all recommendations.

Brokerage Recommendation Trends for BLBD

Check price target & stock forecast for Blue Bird here>>>

The ABR suggests buying Blue Bird, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.

Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.

In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.

ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankIn spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.

The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.

It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.

On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.

Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.

Should You Invest in BLBD?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Blue Bird, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $4.56.

Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Blue Bird. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Blue Bird.

MACON, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Blue Bird Corporation (Nasdaq: BLBD), the leader in electric and low-emission school buses, has announced the appointment of Lyndon Lie as senior vice president of engineering. In this role, Lie will oversee all engineering functions across Blue Bird's platforms to support the company's long-term growth strategy. Lie will be responsible for leading product development, platform engineering, innovation and execution. He will also manage the integration of engineering.

On April 16, 2026, Blue Bird Corp BLBD shares fell 4.8% to a current price of $59.13. This decline comes amid a 52-week range that saw the stock hit a high of $65.47 and a low of $32.61. The recent price drop is notable, especially considering the stock's strong performance year-to-date, up 25.8%, and a remarkable 77.8% increase over the past year.

GF Value™ verdict: Current price is $59.13, compared to GF Value™ of $44.21, indicating the stock is 33.7% overvalued.GF Score™: 83/100 (Strong), suggesting solid fundamentals and potential for long-term performance.Most notable signal: Insider activity shows that insiders sold $0.5M worth of shares in the last three months, indicating a lack of buying interest. Is BLBD Overvalued or Undervalued? Based on the current price of $59.13 and the GF Value™ estimate of $44.21, Blue Bird Corp appears to be significantly overvalued, with a margin of safety of approximately 33.7%. The GF Valuation label indicates that the stock is "Significantly Overvalued," which presents a risk for potential investors. The difference between the market price and the intrinsic value suggests that the stock may be trading at a premium, which can expose investors to price corrections if market sentiments shift.

GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure of intrinsic value, calculated from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. The current overvaluation raises concerns about the sustainability of the stock price, especially in light of today's drop and the recent insider selling activity, which can be a red flag for investors looking for confidence in management's outlook.

How Does BLBD's Valuation Compare to Its History? Metric Current Historical P/E (TTM) 14.9x 15.1x Forward P/E 12.7x N/A The current P/E (TTM) of 14.9x is slightly below its 5-year median P/E of 15.1x, suggesting that while the stock is currently priced reasonably relative to its historical average, it is still elevated when considering the GF Value™ verdict. This P/E analysis aligns with the conclusion of overvaluation indicated by the GF Value™, reinforcing the notion that the stock may not offer a compelling value at its current price level.

What Does BLBD's GF Score™ Tell Us? Metric Rating GF Score™ 83 Financial Strength 8/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 6/10 Valuation 5/10 Momentum 10/10 The GF Score™ of 83/100 indicates that Blue Bird Corp is positioned favorably when it comes to its overall fundamentals, with strong financial strength (8/10) and profitability (7/10) scores. However, the valuation score (5/10) indicates that while the company has solid growth prospects, its current valuation may not reflect its intrinsic worth. The high momentum rank (10/10) suggests that the stock has seen positive price trends, but this may not be enough to justify the current price when weighed against the overall valuation context.

What Are Insiders Doing with BLBD Stock? In the last three months, insiders have sold $0.5 million worth of shares, with no reported buying activity. This pattern may suggest a lack of confidence from management regarding the stock's future performance or potential valuation. Insider selling can often be interpreted as a cautionary signal, indicating that those closest to the company may not expect significant price appreciation in the near term.

While insider activity alone should not determine investment decisions, it is an important factor to consider alongside other metrics and overall market sentiment.

What This Means for Investors Based on the analysis of GF Value™, Blue Bird Corp appears to be overvalued at its current price of $59.13, with a significant 33.7% margin over the estimated intrinsic value of $44.21. Given the signs of potential risk from insider selling and the overall valuation context, investors may want to approach this stock with caution.

For the complete analysis, visit the Blue Bird Corp BLBD stock page. You can also explore the GF Value™ page for detailed valuation methodology, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find similar opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions What is BLBD's GF Score™?

BLBD's GF Score™ is 83/100, which indicates strong fundamentals and potential for long-term returns based on historical data.

Is BLBD overvalued or undervalued?

BLBD is currently overvalued, with a GF Value™ of $44.21 compared to the current price of $59.13, indicating a potential risk for investors.

What is BLBD's P/E ratio?

BLBD's P/E (TTM) is 14.9x, which is slightly below its 5-year median of 15.1x, suggesting the stock is trading reasonably but still aligns with the overvaluation indicated by GF Value™.

This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

MACON, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Blue Bird Corporation (Nasdaq: BLBD), the leader in electric and cleaner-emission school buses, will release its fiscal 2026 second quarter results on May 6, 2026. The public is invited to attend an audio webcast in which Blue Bird executives John Wyskiel, President and CEO, and Razvan Radulescu, CFO, will discuss results. This webcast will take place at 4:30PM ET on May 6, 2026. A slide presentation will be available to support the webcast. Dial-in details and the.

In the latest trading session, Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) closed at $62.93, marking a -2.37% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.49% loss on the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.05%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.9%.

The stock of school bus maker has risen by 18.45% in the past month, leading the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5.12% and the S&P 500's gain of 12.8%.

Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Blue Bird in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on May 6, 2026. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.81, reflecting a 15.63% decrease from the same quarter last year.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $4.56 per share and a revenue of $0 million, demonstrating changes of +4.11% and 0%, respectively, from the preceding year.

Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Blue Bird. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.

The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection remained stagnant. Blue Bird is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.

In terms of valuation, Blue Bird is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 14.15. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 15.65.

Investors should also note that BLBD has a PEG ratio of 2.38 right now. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. As the market closed yesterday, the Automotive - Domestic industry was having an average PEG ratio of 1.06.

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 95, this industry ranks in the top 39% of all industries, numbering over 250.

The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.

Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) closed at $63.20 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.42% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.29%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.31%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.89%.

Shares of the school bus maker have appreciated by 9.35% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 2.86%, and lagging the S&P 500's gain of 10.54%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Blue Bird in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on May 6, 2026. On that day, Blue Bird is projected to report earnings of $0.81 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 15.63%.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $4.56 per share and revenue of $0 million. These totals would mark changes of +4.11% and 0%, respectively, from last year.

Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Blue Bird. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. At present, Blue Bird boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Investors should also note Blue Bird's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 14.07. This denotes a discount relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 16.14.

We can also see that BLBD currently has a PEG ratio of 2.37. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Automotive - Domestic industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.1.

The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 69, putting it in the top 29% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.

MACON, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Blue Bird Corporation (“Blue Bird”) (Nasdaq: BLBD), the leader in electric and low-emission school buses, announced today its fiscal 2026 second quarter financial results.

Highlights

(in millions except Unit Sales and EPS data)

Three Months Ended
March 28, 2026

B/(W) Prior
Year

Six Months Ended
March 28, 2026

B/(W) Prior
Year

Unit Sales

2,148

(147

)

4,283

(142

)

GAAP Measures:

Revenue

$

352.6

$

(6.2

)

$

685.7

$

13.0

Net Income

$

29.3

$

3.3

$

60.1

$

5.3

Diluted EPS

$

0.90

$

0.11

$

1.84

$

0.19

Non-GAAP Measures1:

Adjusted EBITDA

$

50.8

$

1.6

$

100.9

$

5.9

Adjusted Net Income

$

32.5

$

1.0

$

65.0

$

2.9

Adjusted Diluted EPS

$

1.00

$

0.04

$

2.00

$

0.13

1 Reconciliation to relevant GAAP metrics shown below

“I am incredibly proud of our team in delivering another outstanding quarterly result,” said John Wyskiel, President & CEO of Blue Bird Corporation. “The Blue Bird team continued to exceed expectations, improving operations, navigating tariffs, and expanding our leadership in alternative-powered buses. We delivered an exceptional Adj. EBITDA of $51M / 14% for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, a new all-time second-quarter record for the Company.

“In our push to expand our leadership in alternative-powered school buses, we delivered 201 electric-powered buses this quarter. As of the end of the quarter, we had more than 900 EV buses in our firm order backlog, which supports our EV sales target for 2026.

"Additionally, we are very pleased with the timely closing and integration progress of our recently announced acquisition of Micro Bird. The acquisition strengthens Blue Bird’s position with the industry’s most comprehensive bus portfolio and expands our addressable market with the Buy America–compliant shuttle bus market.

“Based on our strong first half of 2026 and final closing of the Micro Bird acquisition, we are raising our 2026 full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $245 million. We look forward to sustained profitable growth in the coming years as we march towards ~$2.5B in revenue and a 15%+ Adjusted EBITDA margin.”

FY2026 Guidance and Long-Term Outlook

“We are very pleased with our second quarter results, with our highest ever Q2 Adj. EBITDA and Free Cash Flow,” said Razvan Radulescu, CFO of Blue Bird Corporation. “Our business is in a very strong position and we continue to deliver ahead of the plan we have been messaging. With the strong first half we delivered, we are raising all full-year 2026 guidance metrics, as well as building in consolidated results for Micro Bird for the second half. 2026 Guidance is being raised to Net Revenue at ~$1.75 Billion and Adj. EBITDA to ~$245 million. Additionally, we are raising our long-term profit outlook towards an Adjusted EBITDA margin of $375+ million, or 15%+, on $2.5+ billion in revenue. We are confident in our profitable growth plans.”

Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results

Net Sales

Net sales were $352.6 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, a decrease of $6.2 million, or 1.7%, compared to $358.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2025. The decrease in net sales is primarily due to a 6.4% decrease in units sold resulting from a 6.7% decrease in the number of production days in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 when compared with the same period in fiscal 2025, which primarily resulted from the timing of holidays, and our corresponding plant shutdown, in our production calendar. As a result of producing fewer buses, we had fewer units that were available to sale. However, the decrease resulting from selling fewer units was partially offset by Bus customer and product mix changes and cumulative Bus price increases, including increases that were intended to mitigate the impact of increased procurement costs for certain of our imported inventory as a result of the imposition of tariffs beginning during the second half of fiscal 2025 and continuing into the first half of fiscal 2026, as well as an increase in Parts sales.

Bus sales decreased $7.6 million, or 2.3%, reflecting a 6.4% decrease in unit bookings that was partially offset by a 4.4% increase in average sales price per unit. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, 2,148 units booked compared to 2,295 units booked for the same period in fiscal 2025. The increase in unit price for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 compared to the same period in fiscal 2025 was primarily due to customer and product mix changes as well as price increases implemented to offset increases in inventory costs.

Parts sales increased $1.4 million, or 5.4%, for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2025. This increase is primarily attributed to price increases that were implemented to offset increases in inventory costs as well as higher fulfillment volumes and slight variations due to product and channel mix.

Gross Profit

Second quarter gross profit of $70.6 million represented a decrease of $0.2 million from the second quarter of last year. The decrease was primarily driven by the $6.2 million decrease in net sales, discussed above, and partially offset by a corresponding decrease of $6.0 million in cost of goods sold.

Net Income

Net income was $29.3 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, an increase of $3.3 million from the second quarter of last year. Among other smaller fluctuations, the increase in net income was largely driven by a decrease of $5.6 million in selling, general and administrative expenses, primarily due to the significant amount of share-based compensation expense recorded in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 resulting from the retirement of our former President and Chief Executive Officer, with no similar significant expense recorded for the acceleration of vesting of stock awards in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Partially offsetting the decrease in selling general, and administrative expenses was a decrease of $3.4 million in other (expense) income, net, primarily due to $2.7 million in pretax costs relating to the acquisition of the remaining 50% of the outstanding common stock of Micro Bird effective April 1, 2026, with no such costs incurred during the second quarter of fiscal 2025.

Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted net income of $32.5 million represented an increase of $1.0 million from the second quarter of last year. The increase was primarily driven by the $3.3 million increase in Net Income, discussed above, when adjusting for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted Net Income, including share-based compensation and Micro Bird acquisition costs, discussed above.

Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA was $50.8 million, which was an increase of $1.6 million compared with the second quarter of fiscal 2025. The increase primarily relates to the increase in Micro Bird earnings, when adjusted for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, that was partially offset by a decrease in other income, net, when adjusted for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, as discussed above.

Year-to-Date Fiscal 2026 Results

Net Sales

Net sales were $685.7 million for the six months ended March 28, 2026, an increase of $13.0 million, or 1.9%, compared to $672.7 million for the six months ended March 29, 2025. The increase in net sales is primarily due to Bus customer and product mix changes and cumulative Bus price increases, including increases that were intended to mitigate the impact of increased procurement costs for certain of our imported inventory as a result of the imposition of tariffs beginning during the second half of fiscal 2025 and continuing into the first half of fiscal 2026, as well as an increase in Parts sales. The Bus increases described above were partially offset by a decrease in Bus units sold resulting from a 4.3% decrease in the number of production days during the six months ended March 28, 2026 when compared with the same period in fiscal 2025, which primarily resulted from the timing of holidays, and our corresponding plant shutdown, in our production calendar. As a result of producing fewer buses, we had fewer units that were available to sale.

Bus sales increased $11.9 million, or 1.9%, reflecting a 5.3% increase in average sales price per unit that was partially offset by a 3.2% decrease in units booked. The increase in unit price for the first six months of fiscal 2026 compared to the same period in fiscal 2025 was primarily due to customer and product mix changes as well as price increases implemented to offset increases in inventory costs. This increase was partially offset by the impact of booking 4,283 units in the six months ended March 28, 2026 compared with 4,425 units during the same period in fiscal 2025.

Parts sales increased $1.1 million, or 2.1%, for the six months ended March 28, 2026 compared to the six months ended March 29, 2025. This increase is primarily attributed to price increases that were implemented to offset increases in inventory costs as well as higher fulfillment volumes and slight variations due to product and channel mix.

Gross Profit

Gross profit for the six months ended March 28, 2026 was $141.9 million, an increase of $10.7 million compared with the same period in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by the $13.0 million increase in net sales. This was partially offset by an increase of $2.3 million in cost of goods sold, primarily corresponding the increase net sales.

Net Income

Net income was $60.1 million for the six months ended March 28, 2026, which was a $5.3 million increase from the same period in the prior year. Among other smaller fluctuations, the increase in net income was primarily driven by the $10.7 million increase in gross profit, discussed above, and partially offset by a $6.5 million increase in other expense. During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the Company incurred approximately $2.7 million of pretax costs relating to the acquisition of the remaining 50% of the outstanding common stock of Micro Bird effective April 1, 2026, with no such costs incurred during the six months ended March 29, 2025. Additionally, during the first quarter of fiscal 2025, the Company sold certain state emissions credits that it was not projecting to use for approximately $2.6 million, with no similar income recorded during the first six months of fiscal 2026.

Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted net income for the six months ended March 28, 2026 was $65.0 million, an increase of $2.9 million compared with the same period last year, primarily due to the $5.3 million increase in net income, discussed above, when adjusting for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted Net Income.

Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA was $100.9 million for the six months ended March 28, 2026, an increase of $5.9 million compared with the same period in the prior year. The increase primarily relates to the increase in (i) gross profit, when adjusted for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, as discussed above and (ii) Micro Bird earnings, when adjusted for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, that were partially offset by (iii) an increase in selling, general and administrative expenses, when adjusting for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, and (iv) a decrease in other income, net, when adjusted for the impact of expenses that are excluded in calculating Adjusted EBITDA, as discussed above.

Conference Call Details

Blue Bird will discuss its fiscal 2026 second quarter and year to date financial results in a conference call at 4:30 PM ET today. Participants may listen to the audio portion of the conference call either through a live audio webcast on the Company's website or by telephone. The slide presentation and webcast can be accessed via the Investor Relations portion of Blue Bird's website at www.blue-bird.com.

Webcast participants should log on and register at least 15 minutes prior to the start time on the Investor Relations homepage of Blue Bird’s website at http://investors.blue-bird.com. Click the link in the events box on the Investor Relations landing page. Participants desiring audio only should dial 646-844-6383 or 833-470-1428. The access code is 005726. A replay of the webcast will be available approximately two hours after the call concludes via the same link on Blue Bird’s website.

About Blue Bird Corporation

Blue Bird (NASDAQ: BLBD) is recognized as a technology leader and innovator of school buses since its founding in 1927. Our dedicated team members design, engineer and manufacture school buses with a singular focus on safety, reliability, and durability. School buses carry the most precious cargo in the world – 25 million children twice a day – making them the most trusted mode of student transportation. The company is the proven leader in low- and zero-emission school buses with more than 25,000 propane, natural gas, and electric powered buses sold. Blue Bird is transforming the student transportation industry through cleaner energy solutions. For more information on Blue Bird’s complete product and service portfolio, visit www.blue-bird.com.

Key Non-GAAP Financial Measures We Use to Evaluate Our Performance

This press release includes the following non-GAAP financial measures “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," "Adjusted Net Income," "Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share," “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow”. Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are financial metrics that are utilized by management and the board of directors, as and when applicable, to determine (a) the annual cash bonus payouts, if any, to be made to certain employees based upon the terms of the Company’s Management Incentive Plan, and (b) whether the performance criteria have been met for the vesting of certain equity awards granted annually to certain members of management based upon the terms of the Company’s Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan. Additionally, consolidated EBITDA, which is an adjusted EBITDA metric defined by our Credit Agreement that could differ from Adjusted EBITDA discussed above as the adjustments to the calculations are not uniform, is used to determine the Company's ongoing compliance with several financial covenant requirements, including being utilized in the denominator of the calculation of the Total Net Leverage Ratio. Accordingly, management views these non-GAAP financial metrics as key for the above purposes and as a useful way to evaluate the performance of our operations as discussed further below.

Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income or loss prior to interest income; interest expense including the component of operating lease expense (which is presented as a single operating expense within cost of goods sold or selling, general and administrative expenses in our U.S. GAAP financial statements) that represents interest expense on lease liabilities; income taxes; and depreciation and amortization including the component of operating lease expense (which is presented as a single operating expense within cost of goods sold or selling, general and administrative expenses in our U.S. GAAP financial statements) that represents amortization charges on right-of-use lease assets; as adjusted for certain non-cash charges or credits that we may record on a recurring basis such as share-based compensation expense and unrealized gains or losses on certain derivative financial instruments as well as certain charges such as (i) transaction related costs or (ii) discrete expenses related to major cost cutting and/or operational transformation initiatives. While certain of the charges that are added back in the Adjusted EBITDA calculation, such as transaction related costs and major cost cutting and/or operational transformation initiatives, represent operating expenses that may be recorded in more than one annual period, the significant project or transaction giving rise to such expenses is not considered to be indicative of the Company’s normal operations. Accordingly, we believe that these, as well as the other credits and charges that comprise the amounts utilized in the determination of Adjusted EBITDA described above, should not be used in evaluating the Company’s ongoing annual operating performance.

We define Adjusted EBITDA Margin as Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales. Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin are not measures of performance defined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The measures are used as a supplement to U.S. GAAP results in evaluating certain aspects of our business, as described below.

We believe that Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin are useful to investors in evaluating our performance because the measures consider the performance of our ongoing operations, excluding decisions made with respect to capital investment, financing, and certain other significant initiatives or transactions as outlined in the preceding paragraphs. We believe the non-GAAP measures offer additional financial metrics that, when coupled with the U.S. GAAP results and the reconciliation to U.S. GAAP results, provide a more complete understanding of our results of operations and the factors and trends affecting our business.

Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share should not be considered as alternatives to net income or GAAP earnings per share as an indicator of our performance or as alternatives to any other measure prescribed by GAAP as there are limitations to using such non-GAAP measures. Although we believe the non-GAAP measures may enhance an evaluation of our operating performance because they exclude the impact of prior decisions made about capital investment, financing, and other expenses, (i) other companies in Blue Bird’s industry may define Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share differently than we do and, as a result, they may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies in Blue Bird’s industry, and (ii) Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share exclude certain financial information that some may consider important in evaluating our performance.

We compensate for these limitations by providing disclosure of the differences between Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share and GAAP results, including providing a reconciliation to GAAP results, to enable investors to perform their own analysis of our operating results.

Our measures of “Free Cash Flow” and "Adjusted Free Cash Flow" are used in addition to and in conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP and Free Cash Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow should not be relied upon to the exclusion of GAAP financial measures. Free Cash Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow reflect an additional way of viewing our liquidity that, when viewed with our GAAP results, provides a more complete understanding of factors and trends affecting our cash flows. We strongly encourage investors to review our financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure.

We define Free Cash Flow as total cash provided by/used in operating activities as adjusted for net cash paid for the acquisition of fixed assets and intangible assets. We use Free Cash Flow, and ratios based on Free Cash Flow, to conduct and evaluate our business because, although it is similar to cash flow from operations, we believe it is a more conservative measure of cash flow since purchases of fixed assets and intangible assets are a necessary component of ongoing manufacturing operations. Accordingly, we expect Free Cash Flow to be less than operating cash flows.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance, business strategies or expectations for our business. Specifically, forward-looking statements include statements in this press release regarding guidance, seasonality, product mix and gross profits and may include statements relating to:

Inherent limitations of internal controls impacting financial statements Growth opportunities Future profitability Ability to expand market share Customer demand for certain products Economic conditions (including tariffs) that could affect fuel costs, commodity costs, industry size and financial conditions of our dealers and suppliers Labor or other constraints on the Company’s ability to maintain a competitive cost structure Volatility in the tax base and other funding sources that support the purchase of buses by our end customers Lower or higher than anticipated market acceptance for our products Other statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “estimate,” “plan,” “project,” “forecast,” “intend,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “seek,” “target” or similar expressions These forward-looking statements are based on information available as of the date of this press release, and current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve a number of judgments, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date they were made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. The factors described above, as well as risk factors described in reports filed with the SEC by us (available at www.sec.gov), could cause our actual results to differ materially from estimates or expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements.

  BLUE BIRD CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

(Unaudited)

  (in thousands of dollars, except for share data)

March 28, 2026

September 27, 2025

Assets

Current assets

Cash and cash equivalents

$

275,893

$

229,313

Accounts receivable, net

12,940

20,650

Inventories

144,765

139,470

Other current assets

32,969

22,195

Total current assets

$

466,567

$

411,628

Property, plant and equipment, net

$

117,868

$

108,541

Goodwill

18,825

18,825

Intangible assets, net

40,750

41,685

Equity investment in affiliates

39,204

35,197

Deferred tax assets

—

2,697

Pension

4,664

4,889

Other assets

1,486

1,793

Total assets

$

689,364

$

625,255

Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity

Current liabilities

Accounts payable

$

127,124

$

151,479

Warranty

7,235

7,494

Accrued expenses

53,752

55,164

Deferred warranty income

12,015

11,329

Other current liabilities

49,156

6,333

Current portion of long-term debt

5,000

5,000

Total current liabilities

$

254,282

$

236,799

Long-term liabilities

Revolving credit facility

$

—

$

—

Long-term debt

82,982

85,324

Warranty

9,540

9,681

Deferred warranty income

23,292

22,368

Deferred tax liabilities

8,189

5,439

Other liabilities

13,151

10,229

Total long-term liabilities

$

137,154

$

133,041

Guarantees, commitments and contingencies

Stockholders' equity

Preferred stock, $0.0001 par value, 10,000,000 shares authorized, 0 shares issued and outstanding at March 28, 2026 and September 27, 2025

$

—

$

—

Common stock, $0.0001 par value, 100,000,000 shares authorized, 31,646,589 and 31,884,721 shares issued and outstanding at March 28, 2026 and September 27, 2025, respectively

3

3

Additional paid-in capital

197,690

195,466

Retained earnings

128,302

88,193

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

(28,067

)

(28,247

)

Total stockholders' equity

$

297,928

$

255,415

Total liabilities and stockholders' equity

$

689,364

$

625,255

  BLUE BIRD CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS

(Unaudited)

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

(in thousands of dollars except for share data)

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Net sales

$

352,635

$

358,851

$

685,719

$

672,723

Cost of goods sold

281,988

287,997

543,843

541,552

Gross profit

$

70,647

$

70,854

$

141,876

$

131,171

Operating expenses

Selling, general and administrative expenses

31,529

37,143

65,081

64,418

Operating profit

$

39,118

$

33,711

$

76,795

$

66,753

Interest expense

(1,545

)

(1,813

)

(3,111

)

(3,728

)

Interest income

1,929

1,258

3,910

2,826

Other (expense) income, net

(2,922

)

444

(3,133

)

3,360

Income before income taxes

$

36,580

$

33,600

$

74,461

$

69,211

Income tax expense

(9,102

)

(9,129

)

(18,221

)

(17,822

)

Equity in net income of non-consolidated affiliates

1,823

1,575

3,817

3,379

Net income

$

29,301

$

26,046

$

60,057

$

54,768

Earnings per share:

Basic weighted average shares outstanding

31,629,376

31,917,407

31,703,272

32,072,354

Diluted weighted average shares outstanding

32,430,122

32,885,993

32,558,241

33,152,066

Basic earnings per share

$

0.93

$

0.82

$

1.89

$

1.71

Diluted earnings per share

$

0.90

$

0.79

$

1.84

$

1.65

  BLUE BIRD CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS

(Unaudited)

  Six Months Ended

(in thousands of dollars)

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Cash flows from operating activities

Net income

$

60,057

$

54,768

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:

Depreciation and amortization expense

8,045

7,710

Non-cash interest expense

158

167

Share-based compensation expense

4,027

9,940

Equity in net income of non-consolidated affiliates

(3,817

)

(3,379

)

Loss on disposal of fixed assets

51

285

Deferred income tax expense (benefit)

5,390

(3,962

)

Amortization of deferred actuarial pension losses

236

139

Changes in assets and liabilities:

Accounts receivable

7,710

43,313

Inventories

(5,295

)

(36,034

)

Other assets

(10,241

)

(10,955

)

Accounts payable

(25,101

)

9,929

Accrued expenses, pension and other liabilities

43,120

(17,741

)

Total adjustments

$

24,283

$

(588

)

Total cash provided by operating activities

$

84,340

$

54,180

Cash flows from investing activities

Cash paid for fixed assets

$

(13,319

)

$

(13,616

)

Equity investment in affiliates

(190

)

(500

)

Total cash used in investing activities

$

(13,509

)

$

(14,116

)

Cash flows from financing activities

Term loan repayments

$

(2,500

)

$

(2,500

)

Principal payments on finance leases

—

(604

)

Repurchase of common stock in connection with repurchase programs

(19,948

)

(30,053

)

Repurchase of common stock in connection with stock award exercises

(2,574

)

(4,412

)

Cash received from stock option exercises

771

567

Total cash used in financing activities

$

(24,251

)

$

(37,002

)

Change in cash and cash equivalents

46,580

3,062

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

229,313

127,687

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$

275,893

$

130,749

  Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

(in thousands of dollars)

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Net income

$

29,301

$

26,046

$

60,057

$

54,768

Adjustments:

Interest (income) expense, net (1)

(233

)

633

(486

)

1,066

Income tax expense

9,102

9,129

18,221

17,822

Depreciation, amortization, and disposals (2)

4,673

4,251

9,244

8,494

Micro Bird acquisition costs

2,673

—

2,673

—

Share-based compensation expense

1,670

7,434

4,027

9,940

Micro Bird Holdings, Inc. total interest expense, net; income tax expense or benefit; depreciation expense and amortization expense

3,628

1,713

7,136

2,869

Adjusted EBITDA

$

50,814

$

49,206

$

100,872

$

94,959

Adjusted EBITDA margin (percentage of net sales)

14.4

%

13.7

%

14.7

%

14.1

%

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Adjusted Free Cash Flow

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

(in thousands of dollars)

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Net cash provided by operating activities

$

47,761

$

27,770

$

84,340

$

54,180

Cash paid for fixed assets

(7,854

)

(9,022

)

(13,319

)

(13,616

)

Free cash flow

$

39,907

$

18,748

$

71,021

$

40,564

Cash paid for Micro Bird acquisition costs

2,673

—

2,673

—

Adjusted free cash flow

$

42,580

$

18,748

$

73,694

$

40,564

Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

(in thousands of dollars)

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Net income

$

29,301

$

26,046

$

60,057

$

54,768

Adjustments, net of tax expense or benefit (1)

Micro Bird acquisition costs

1,978

—

1,978

—

Share-based compensation expense

1,236

5,501

2,980

7,356

Adjusted net income, non-GAAP

$

32,515

$

31,547

65,015

62,124

_____________ (1) Amounts are net of estimated tax rates of 26%.

Reconciliation of Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

March 28, 2026

March 29, 2025

Diluted earnings per share

$

0.90

$

0.79

$

1.84

$

1.65

One-time charge adjustments, net of tax benefit or expense

0.10

0.17

0.16

0.22

Adjusted diluted earnings per share, non-GAAP

$

1.00

$

0.96

$

2.00

$

1.87

Adjusted weighted average dilutive shares outstanding

32,430,122

32,885,993

32,558,241

33,152,066

Blue Bird acquired the remaining 50% of Micro Bird for $201.8M, implying 10.7x FY2026 forecast EBITDA, which is below the 12.3x sector median. The FY2026 EBITDA guidance raise of 8.9% is largely inorganic, while the organic raise is only 2.2%. Management has beaten guidance for 14 consecutive quarters, supporting credibility of midterm EBITDA targets.

On May 19, 2026, Blue Bird Corp BLBD shares fell 11.1% to a current price of $64.68. This decline comes amid a 52-week trading range of $37.68 to $81.51, highlighting significant volatility in the stock's performance.

GF Value™ verdict: Currently priced at $64.68, which is 32.5% above the GF Value™ of $48.81, indicating the stock is overvalued.GF Score™ of 81/100 suggests a strong overall assessment, indicating solid fundamentals.Most notable signal: The momentum rank of 10/10 reflects strong recent price performance. Is BLBD Overvalued or Undervalued? Blue Bird Corp BLBD is currently trading at $64.68, significantly above its GF Value™ of $48.81. This overvaluation of 32.5% indicates a lack of margin of safety for potential investors. The GF Valuation label classifies the stock as significantly overvalued, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the current stock price amid market fluctuations.

Investors should be cautious when considering entering or holding positions in BLBD at this price, as the high valuation suggests that the stock may be susceptible to corrections. GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure of intrinsic value, calculated from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates.

How Does BLBD's Valuation Compare to Its History? Metric Current Historical P/E (TTM) 15.9x 15.2x Forward P/E 13.3x N/A Currently, Blue Bird Corp's P/E ratio of 15.9x is above its 5-year median P/E of 15.2x, indicating that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation. The forward P/E of 13.3x suggests that future earnings may be expected to improve, but this still does not align with the GF Value™ verdict that indicates the stock is overvalued. Therefore, the P/E analysis agrees with the GF Value™ assessment, highlighting potential risks in the current valuation.

What Does BLBD's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ ranks stocks from 0 to 100 based on five key aspects: Financial Strength, Profitability, Growth, Valuation, and Momentum. Stocks with higher GF Score™ values have been found to generate higher long-term returns (backtested 2006-2021).

Metric Rating GF Score™ 81 Financial Strength 8/10 Profitability 7/10 Growth 7/10 Valuation 3/10 Momentum 10/10 Overall, BLBD's GF Score™ of 81/100 indicates strong fundamentals, with particularly robust financial strength and momentum, scoring 8/10 and 10/10 respectively. However, the valuation score of 3/10 reveals significant concerns regarding the stock's current price relative to its intrinsic value, emphasizing that while the company shows promise in profitability and growth, its elevated valuation may pose risks for potential investors.

What Are Insiders Doing with BLBD Stock? In recent months, insider activity at Blue Bird Corp has shown that insiders sold a total of $0.5 million worth of stock, with no recorded buying activity. This pattern of selling may suggest a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the current stock price and its future performance. A lack of insider buying during a period of stock price decline can be perceived as a negative signal, potentially indicating that insiders do not view the current valuation as attractive.

What This Means for Investors Based on the GF Value™ of $48.81 and the current price of $64.68, Blue Bird Corp is assessed as overvalued. This overvaluation, combined with insider selling and a low valuation score, suggests that potential investors may want to exercise caution and reassess the stock's fundamentals before making investment decisions.

For the complete analysis, visit the Blue Bird Corp BLBD stock page. You can also explore the GF Value™ page for detailed valuation methodology, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find similar opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions What is BLBD's GF Score™?

BLBD's GF Score™ is 81/100, indicating strong fundamentals and a solid ranking compared to its peers.

Is BLBD overvalued or undervalued?

BLBD is currently overvalued according to the GF Value™, which estimates the stock's fair value at $48.81, indicating a significant premium at the current price.

What is BLBD's P/E ratio?

BLBD's P/E ratio (TTM) is 15.9x, which is above its 5-year median P/E of 15.2x, suggesting that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation.

This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?

Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Blue Bird (BLBD - Free Report) .

Blue Bird currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.88, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by eight brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.88 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.

Of the eight recommendations that derive the current ABR, five are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 62.5% and 12.5% of all recommendations.

Brokerage Recommendation Trends for BLBD

Check price target & stock forecast for Blue Bird here>>>

The ABR suggests buying Blue Bird, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.

Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.

In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.

Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.

The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.

It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.

In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.

In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.

There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.

Should You Invest in BLBD?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Blue Bird, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has declined 3.8% over the past month to $4.67.

Analysts' growing pessimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates lower, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to plunge in the near term.

The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Blue Bird. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Therefore, it could be wise to take the Buy-equivalent ABR for Blue Bird with a grain of salt.