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The market expects Bunge Global (BG - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 29. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis agribusiness and food company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.43 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +7.1%.

Revenues are expected to be $23.08 billion, up 4.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.6% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Bunge Global?For Bunge Global, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -3.09%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Bunge Global will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Bunge Global would post earnings of $2.03 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.00, delivering a surprise of -1.48%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Bunge Global doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Key Takeaways Bunge raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25-$9.75 after stronger Q2 processing results.Soybean and softseed processing gains lifted EBIT, aided by added capacity and the Viterra combination.Bunge lowered its Grain Merchandising and Milling outlook as higher costs weigh on earnings conversion. Bunge Global SA (BG - Free Report) raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25-$9.75 from $9.00-$9.50 after stronger second-quarter processing performance. The revision reflects higher expectations for Soybean Processing and Refining and slightly higher Softseed Processing and Refining results.

The upgrade is not broad based. Bunge lowered its outlook for Grain Merchandising and Milling, while higher corporate, financing and integration costs leave execution important to converting processing gains into per-share earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for 2026 is currently pegged at $9.72 per share, near the higher end of the company’s guided range. The estimate suggests year-over-year growth of 28.4%. The estimate of $12.08 for 2027 indicates growth of 24.3%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bunge’s Q2 Processing Gains Support Higher GuidanceSecond-quarter adjusted EPS increased 52.7% year over year to $2.00. Adjusted total EBIT more than doubled to $665 million, with the margin improving to 2.8% from 2.3%.

Net sales rose 88.3% to $24.04 billion as sales and volumes increased across all four segments. Gross profit more than doubled to $1.68 billion, while gross margin expanded to 7% from 5.8%.

BG’s Soybean Volumes Show Added Viterra ScaleSoybeans processed volumes increased to 11,524 thousand metric tons from 9,304 thousand metric tons, with the largest increase tied to greater production capacity in Argentina. Merchandised volumes nearly doubled, reflecting the combined company’s broader origination footprint.

Soybean Processing and Refining adjusted EBIT advanced 46.4% to $445 million as North and South American results improved. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM - Free Report) also reported stronger second-quarter Ag Services & Oilseeds profit, up 129% on improved segment margins.

Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR - Free Report) offers another biofuel-linked reference through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which has capacity to produce more than 1.2 billion gallons annually.

Bunge’s Softseed Results Strengthen the Earnings MixSoftseed processed volumes increased 79.3% to 3,490 thousand metric tons, reflecting added capacity in Argentina, Canada and Europe. Segment sales rose 167.5% to $4.1 billion.

Adjusted segment EBIT jumped to $255 million from $14 million. Processing gains in North America and Argentina led the improvement, while stronger European processing offset weaker refining and biodiesel results. Darling Ingredients provides another biofuel reference through its 50/50 Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which has more than 1.2 billion gallons of annual renewable-fuel capacity.

BG’s Grain Outlook Limits the Scope of the UpgradeGrain Merchandising and Milling sales rose 183.4% to $6.61 billion, while volumes increased 184.6% to 23,852 thousand metric tons as the combined company expanded its grain-handling footprint. Adjusted segment EBIT increased to $67 million from $29 million.

Higher ocean freight, commercial services, global cotton and wheat milling results were partly offset by weaker global grain merchandising and sugar. Management lowered its full-year outlook for the segment, limiting the breadth of the guidance increase.

Bunge’s Cost Base Still Tests Guidance ConversionSelling, general and administrative expenses rose 45% to $606 million as the combined company became larger. Net interest expense also increased year over year, and transaction and integration costs weighed on reported per-share results.

Bunge maintained 2026 net interest expense guidance of $620-$660 million and capital spending expectations of $1.5-$1.7 billion. Cash used for operating activities totaled $1.13 billion in the first half, while capital expenditures reached $779 million.

BG’s Style Scores Reflect Better Earnings MomentumThe higher outlook rests on stronger oilseed processing, but grain merchandising weakness and a heavier combined-company cost base keep the earnings picture mixed. The next test is whether processing gains and Viterra synergies translate into more consistent earnings conversion.

BG carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a VGM Score of A, a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of B and a Momentum Score of B. The Style Scores complement rather than supersede the Zacks Rank.

The current-fiscal-year EPS estimate was unchanged over the past one and four weeks, while the 12-week change was positive 1.6%. That leaves limited evidence of fresh near-term estimate-revision momentum despite the higher company guidance.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Bunge Global (BG - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $2 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.31 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -1.48%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this agribusiness and food company would post earnings of $0.97 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.83, delivering a surprise of +88.66%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bunge Global, which belongs to the Zacks Agriculture - Products industry, posted revenues of $24.04 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.34%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $12.77 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Bunge Global shares have added about 31.8% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.5%.

What's Next for Bunge Global?While Bunge Global has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Bunge Global was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.59 on $23.08 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $9.74 on $92.31 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Agriculture - Products is currently in the top 10% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

BrightView Holdings (BV - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 4.

This investment company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -6.7%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.9% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

BrightView Holdings' revenues are expected to be $722.17 million, up 2% from the year-ago quarter.

For those looking to find strong Basic Materials stocks, it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers. Has Bunge Global (BG - Free Report) been one of those stocks this year? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Basic Materials sector should help us answer this question.

Bunge Global is a member of our Basic Materials group, which includes 248 different companies and currently sits at #4 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different groups, measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the sector to gauge the strength of each group.

The Zacks Rank is a proven system that emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions, highlighting a variety of stocks that are displaying the right characteristics to beat the market over the next one to three months. Bunge Global is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BG's full-year earnings has moved 18% higher within the past quarter. This shows that analyst sentiment has improved and the company's earnings outlook is stronger.

Our latest available data shows that BG has returned about 26.4% since the start of the calendar year. In comparison, Basic Materials companies have returned an average of 13.5%. As we can see, Bunge Global is performing better than its sector in the calendar year.

One other Basic Materials stock that has outperformed the sector so far this year is Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM - Free Report) . The stock is up 13.6% year-to-date.

In Lifezone Metals Limited's case, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year increased 12.1% over the past three months. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

To break things down more, Bunge Global belongs to the Agriculture - Products industry, a group that includes 4 individual companies and currently sits at #48 in the Zacks Industry Rank. On average, stocks in this group have gained 19.4% this year, meaning that BG is performing better in terms of year-to-date returns.

Lifezone Metals Limited, however, belongs to the Mining - Miscellaneous industry. Currently, this 72-stock industry is ranked #152. The industry has moved +24.1% so far this year.

Bunge Global and Lifezone Metals Limited could continue their solid performance, so investors interested in Basic Materials stocks should continue to pay close attention to these stocks.