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Jefferies believes detailed data on AstraZeneca PLC's (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) experimental lung drug tozorakimab could more than compensate investors for the recent failure of a separate heart trial.

The bank has reiterated its buy rating and 17,500p price target, implying 41% upside from the current 12,380p, and flagged the 8 September presentation at the European Respiratory Society congress as the key catalyst.

The collapse of the CARDIO-TTRansform study stripped $4 billion from Jefferies' longer-term forecasts and cut roughly 30 basis points from its estimated growth rate for 2027 to 2030.

Analyst Michael Leuchten argues that loss is recoverable and that the market is underappreciating what tozorakimab could add.

The drug targets IL-33, an inflammatory signalling protein released when lung tissue is damaged by smoke or infection, and would be the first medicine of its kind approved for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a progressive condition that narrows the airways.

Three trials have already reported positive headline results, but the underlying numbers have not been published.

What matters commercially is breadth of label.

Existing biologic treatments such as Sanofi and Regeneron's Dupixent work mainly in patients with high eosinophil counts, a type of white blood cell, which restricts them to somewhere between 10% and 40% of the patient population.

Because IL-33 acts further upstream, tozorakimab could work regardless of eosinophil levels, opening the door to current smokers and patients with low counts who have no approved biologic option.

Jefferies' statistical modelling suggests the drug is likely delivering at least a 30% reduction in flare-ups among former smokers, comfortably competitive with Dupixent, with a signal in other subgroups.

On that basis, the bank puts peak sales at more than $5 billion beyond 2030, against consensus of $2.9 billion for 2032.

It also cautions that AstraZeneca will need more than one drug in the category, with roughly half the rival pipeline of dual-target antibodies originating in China and progressing quickly.

AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) shares fell 9.55% in early trading, wiping £19 billion from the company's valuation, after its Wainua drug failed a closely watched Phase III trial in a form of heart disease.

The drop propelled the stock to the top of the FTSE 100 losers' list.

The CARDIO-TTRansform trial, run with US partner Ionis, tested Wainua in patients with transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM), a progressive and often fatal condition in which misfolded protein builds up in the heart.

The study did not meet its primary endpoint of reducing cardiovascular deaths and recurrent cardiovascular events over 140 weeks compared with placebo.

AstraZeneca said adding Wainua to today's standard of care, which included a stabiliser treatment for most patients, provided no statistically significant benefit.

In a prespecified subgroup of patients receiving Wainua on its own, fewer events were observed and the result was nominally significant, though no treatment effect was seen in patients already on stabiliser therapy.

The trial was the largest ever run in ATTR-CM, enrolling 1,432 patients across 130 sites in 20 countries.

Full data will be presented at the European Society of Cardiology Congress in August.

Sharon Barr, head of biopharmaceuticals research and development at AstraZeneca, said that although the trial missed its primary objective, the results support greater scientific understanding of treatment approaches for the hundreds of thousands of patients living with the disease worldwide.

The readout was one of three major Phase III catalysts hanging over the stock in the second half, alongside the SERENA-4 trial of breast cancer drug camizestrant and the AVANZAR lung cancer study of Datroway.

Citi, which has a buy rating on the shares, had modelled peak Wainua sales in ATTR-CM of around $6.2 billion, with a 59% probability of success, making it the highest-conviction of the three readouts.

The bank estimated in May that a failure of CARDIO-TTRansform would knock around 2.8% off its discounted cash flow valuation, equivalent to roughly £5.20 off its £181 fair value estimate.

Notably, Citi argued at the time that the roughly 10% fall in AstraZeneca shares from their pre-results highs already exceeded the combined 7% downside it attributed to the failure of all three trials.

Even in a scenario where all three readouts disappointed, the bank calculated a bear-case valuation of £168, still 23% above where the shares were then trading.

The broker's bull case, assuming success across all three, pointed to a valuation of around £204.

Today's sell-off suggests the market is pricing in a harsher read-across, with investors likely reassessing the risk attached to the remaining SERENA-4 and AVANZAR readouts later this year.

Citi has consistently described AstraZeneca as having the best growth and best pipeline in European pharma, with $46 billion of risk-adjusted peak pipeline sales and ten Phase III readouts due in 2026.

Wainua is already approved in more than 20 countries for the polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis, a separate nerve-damage indication unaffected by today's result.

Jefferies has reiterated its 'buy' rating on AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) and named the drugmaker a Franchise Pick, framing an approaching late-stage trial readout as the next major catalyst for the shares.

The broker holds a price target of 18,000p, implying upside of around 30% to the current price.

At the centre of the call is CARDIO-TTRansform, a phase III study of eplontersen, marketed as Wainua, in transthyretin amyloidosis, a progressive condition in which misfolded proteins build up in the heart.

Data is due in the second half of 2026, and Jefferies argues a positive result could de-risk around $5 billion in future sales while adding a low single-digit percentage to its net present value estimate.

The analysts see the trial as well placed to succeed, citing a large patient population and the ability to test the drug both alone and alongside existing stabiliser therapies such as tafamidis.

A favourable outcome would validate eplontersen as a competitive silencing treatment and open the door to combination use, where Jefferies sees the larger long-term prize.

The broker frames the opportunity within a transthyretin amyloidosis market it expects to reach around $18 billion by 2030, driven by earlier diagnosis and a shift towards disease-modifying therapies in a condition that remains widely underdiagnosed.

Jefferies also points to AstraZeneca's broader pipeline, including the amyloid-clearing antibody cliramitug, as evidence of a multi-mechanism franchise rather than a single-product bet.

On the longer-term question of growth beyond 2030, the analysts estimate AstraZeneca must de-risk roughly $12.5 billion of incremental revenue by 2034 to sustain forecast top-line growth of about 3% a year, a target they consider achievable.

The price target places the stock at a premium of around 40% to the European pharmaceuticals sector on 2027 earnings, a valuation Jefferies says is justified.