AUD/USD waits for a clearer signalDirectional bias: Neutral to bullish above 0.6900, although repeated difficulty clearing 0.7000 leaves the pair exposed to another rejection.
Preferred approach: Patience may offer a better risk-reward profile than chasing the pair immediately below resistance. A confirmed break above the 0.7000 threshold or a pullback that holds around the 200-day SMA would provide a cleaner setup.
Bullish trigger: A sustained move above 0.7000, ideally supported by firm Australian labour data, stronger expectations of another RBA rate increase, lower US yields or an improvement in risk appetite.
Bearish trigger: Another failure at 0.7000, accompanied by renewed US Dollar strength or a generalised deterioration in market sentiment.
Key invalidation level: A daily close below the 200-day SMA around 0.6900 would undermine the broader constructive structure and increase the risk of a deeper retracement in the short-term horizon.
Three paths from the 0.7000 crossroadsBase case: The range holds
AUD/USD could remain trapped between the 0.7000 psychological barrier and the 200-day SMA just above 0.6900 while traders wait for a sufficiently strong catalyst.
Australia’s relatively solid domestic fundamentals and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious stance should discourage aggressive selling. At the same time, persistent demand for the Greenback and geopolitical uncertainty could prevent an immediate breakout.
Until either boundary gives way, spot may be better treated as a side-lined trade than a convincing directional move.
Bull case: Buyers establish a foothold above 0.7000
A convincing break above 0.7000 would suggest that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure surrounding this closely watched threshold.
The breakout would carry greater conviction if supported by:
Firmer-than-expected Australian data releases.A stable or lower Unemployment Rate.Increased expectations of another RBA rate hike.Lower US yields and a softer US Dollar.An improvement in risk-linked sentiment.Under this scenario, the next important medium-term target would emerge around 0.7200, followed by the 2026 ceiling near 0.7280.
The sizeable build-up of speculative AUD shorts could add fuel to the move if a confirmed breakout forces bearish traders to unwind their positions.
Bear case: Another rejection opens the door to 0.6900
A fresh failure around 0.7000 could bring sellers back into the market, particularly if the Greenback regains momentum or global risk appetite deteriorates.
The next major test would then be the 200-day SMA around 0.6900. A daily close below this area would damage the wider bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Once that support gives way, previous resistance and consolidation zones below 0.6900 could return to focus.
Australia’s economy continues to hold its groundAustralia’s domestic backdrop remains relatively healthy, supported by firm demand, positive growth and a resilient labour market.
July business surveys reinforced that picture. The Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.0 from 51.5, while the Services PMI rose to 53.0 from 50.5, leaving both sectors comfortably in expansionary territory.
The June labour-market report was also encouraging. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4%, while Employment Change jumped by 76.3K following a revised 44K increase in May.
Still, the picture is not uniformly positive. Australia recorded an A$3.018 billion trade deficit in May, reversing April’s A$1.383 billion surplus. Economic growth also slowed to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2026, down from 0.9%, while annual growth held at 2.5%.
Overall the figures suggest a resilient economy but perhaps not strong enough on its own to trigger a sustained breakout in AUD/USD.
Inflation leaves the RBA with unfinished businessAustralian headline inflation eased to 3.9% in the second quarter from 4.1%. Underlying price pressures, however, remained uncomfortable. Both the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median measures rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
Consumer inflation expectations offered some relief, falling to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, according to the Melbourne Institute. Even so, inflation remains too high for the RBA to declare victory.
The central bank left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% in June and maintained a cautious message. Policymakers warned that further tightening could still be required if inflation proves more persistent than expected.
Governor Michele Bullock struck a more balanced tone. While keeping the possibility of another rate increase alive, she suggested there was no immediate need to tighten again as the economy was broadly evolving in line with expectations.
Markets expect the RBA to remain on hold at its August meeting while continuing to price the possibility of additional tightening before year-end. So far, nearly 15 basis points of extra tightening are pencilled in by the turn of the year.
That stance provides the AUD with some domestic support, but it is not necessarily enough to trigger an immediate rally. Further gains may require incoming data to strengthen the case for another rate increase.
China steadies but offers little additional liftChina remains an important influence on the Australian currency, although it is currently providing stability rather than a powerful tailwind.
The Chinese economy expanded by 4.3% YoY in the April-June period, Industrial Production rose by 5.3% in the year to June, and Retail Sales increased by a more modest 1.0%.
Business surveys suggest that activity is stabilising. The official Manufacturing and Services PMIs remained slightly above the 50 threshold, while private-sector gauges continued to signal expansion.
China’s trade surplus also widened to $125.62 billion in June from $105.4 billion, supported by stronger imports and exports.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.
China is therefore neither delivering a major boost nor creating a significant drag. Unless the data reveal a clearer acceleration or deterioration, Chinese releases may generate short-term volatility without establishing a lasting direction for the pair.
Bearish positioning remains heavy, but momentum is fadingThe speculative mood on the Australian Dollar stayed bearish in the week ended July 28. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed net short positions rose to almost 40K contracts from 37.7K a week before.
However, the weekly increase in bearish exposure has decelerated to around 2.3K contracts from 7K previously. That said, the non-commercial players are still building on their downside positions, but with less urgency than earlier this summer.
Open interest also increased slightly to around 229.8K contracts from just above 225K, indicating a slight increase in market participation. In addition, speculative exposure decreased as well to -17.4% (from -16.7%).
The broader trend points to a similar loss of momentum. Indeed, the 4-week change improved to -22.3K contracts from -24.7K, suggesting that cumulative bearish flows are gradually cooling.
Overall, speculators remain firmly bearish on the Aussie, but that view is becoming more established than aggressive. This means the AUD position is increasingly reliant on incoming economic data.
It also creates an interesting asymmetry. Disappointing data could reinforce the prevailing bearish bias, but a convincing improvement in the outlook could trigger a sharper reaction as crowded short positions are unwound.
Jobs data take centre stageAustralia’s July Labour Force report will be the next major domestic test for the Australian Dollar. The release could influence expectations for the RBA’s next move and determine whether AUD/USD can establish itself above 0.7000.
Stronger-than-expected labour data
A solid increase in employment, particularly full-time employment, combined with a stable or lower jobless rate would reinforce the view that the labour market remains tight.
Firm participation and hours-worked figures would add credibility to the headline result. Such an outcome could strengthen expectations of another RBA rate increase and support a sustained move above 0.7000 of the pair.
A broadly balanced report
Employment growth close to expectations, accompanied by little change in unemployment or participation, would probably leave the RBA outlook largely unchanged.
In that case, AUD/USD could remain confined between resistance around 0.7000 and the 200-day SMA just past 0.6900, with its direction determined primarily by the US Dollar and global risk sentiment.
A clear deterioration in the labour market
Weak or negative employment growth, particularly alongside a rise in the Unemployment Rate, would raise questions about the resilience of the Australian economy.
A drop in hours worked or a result driven mainly by part-time employment would make the report look even softer. This could reduce expectations of further RBA tightening and leave spot vulnerable to a renewed test of 0.6900.
Participation will require careful attention. A lower Unemployment Rate caused by people leaving the labour force would be less encouraging than the headline figure might initially suggest.
Beyond the domestic data, traders should continue to monitor US yields, Federal Reserve expectations, Chinese developments, global risk appetite and geopolitical headlines.
Technical landscapeIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6994, holding above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6913 but still capped by the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 and the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, which keeps the near-term tone neutral-to-bearish. Momentum is modestly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 51, while the Average Directional Index (14) around 15 suggests a weak, non-trending environment where price is more likely to consolidate beneath these moving average barriers than to embark on a decisive directional move.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the short-term SMAs, with the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, ahead of a horizontal cap near 0.7079; higher up, the 0.7278–0.7283 region and then 0.7661 mark more substantial medium-term hurdles. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 200-day SMA at 0.6913, before the horizontal floor at 0.6833, while deeper retracements would expose 0.6660 and 0.6593, with 0.6414 and 0.6373 acting as longer-term bearish objectives if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The line in the sand remains 0.6900AUD/USD retains a constructive medium-term structure above its 200-day SMA, but the immediate outlook remains uncertain while the pair struggles to secure a foothold above 0.7000.
The most attractive setup remains conditional. Confirmed acceptance above 0.7000 would favour additional gains and could trigger a positioning-driven short squeeze. Another rejection, however, would leave the pair exposed to a return toward 0.6900.
Until one of these boundaries breaks, AUD/USD remains caught between supportive Australian fundamentals and an external backdrop still dominated by the US Dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and only moderate support from China.
Employment FAQs Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
The AUD/USD pair faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since June 17, around the 0.7050 level earlier this Monday. Spot prices slide to the 0.7030-0.7025 region heading into the European session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a supportive fundamental and technical setup.
The US Dollar (USD) stages a goodish recovery from a one-and-a-half-month low, which, along with the disappointing release of China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, exerts some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, amid easing inflation fears on the back of a steep decline in oil prices, should cap the USD and help limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 0.7020 barrier, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall, was seen as a key trigger for AUD/USD bulls. Moreover, momentum indicators remain supportive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering around 57, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly positive, hinting that buyers still control the short-term bias while facing nearby resistance.
However, the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 0.7069, might continue to act as immediate hurdles. A daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.7117 and then 0.7184, ahead of the cycle high near 0.7271.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the 38.2% retracement at 0.7021, with additional layers at 0.6962 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6913, while a deeper retreat would expose the structural floor around 0.6867.
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The US dollar has come under renewed pressure following last week's FOMC meeting and coordinated support for the Japanese yen by Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury. The move has fuelled gains in EUR/USD and AUD/USD, while raising fresh questions over whether the Dollar Index has formed a significant top.
US Dollar Outlook: What It Means for EUR/USD and AUD/USD In this video, Matt Simpson analyses the Dollar Index on the daily and weekly charts, highlighting why it may be approaching a key inflection point despite the broader bearish outlook. He also explains why EUR/USD and AUD/USD could be vulnerable to a near-term pullback before attempting to extend their longer-term advances, and discusses the key technical levels to watch ahead of ISM surveys and Non-Farm Payrolls.
The Australian dollar enters the week on a four-week winning streak after broad US dollar weakness following the FOMC meeting and coordinated yen intervention lifted AUD/USD. But with the US dollar index testing a major support zone and ISM and nonfarm payrolls due this week, the Aussie may need a fresh catalyst to extend its gains.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Surges as MOF Steals the BOJ's Thunder After FOMC Gold Bounces Within Range After Post-FOMC Dollar Selloff US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Australian Dollar Broadly Lower as Soft CPI Reverses RBA Hike Bets AUD/USD Rally Meets DXY Support Ahead of ISM and NFP The Australian dollar largely escaped the extreme volatility seen in the Japanese yen late last week, when several yen crosses unwound moves that had accumulated over the previous three months. The BOJ's suspected intervention shook out what had arguably become crowded long-yen positions, before another bout of yen strength emerged after the US Treasury threw its support behind Japan's efforts.
Meanwhile, expectations for another RBA rate hike eased after Australia's softer-than-expected CPI report. Markets have effectively ruled out a September move, although the cash rate curve is still pricing a small chance of one final 25bp hike by December.
Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders
Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Data Could Reshape Fed Expectations The nonfarm payrolls and ISM reports are the main calendar events this week, as they could help reshape Fed policy expectations following last week's slightly less-hawkish than expected decision to leave interest rates on hold. The Middle East flare-up also raises concerns about potential inflationary pressures, with Fed funds futures continuing to price a 74% probability of a September hike and a 41% chance of another in December.
But if recent trends in the ISM services and nonfarm payrolls reports are repeated, it could still leave some doubt over that second hike. Headline job growth has slowed for three consecutive months, from 214k to 57k, although unemployment has edged back to a healthy 4.2%. ISM PMIs also eased slightly while prices paid retreated from their multi-year highs. The risk, of course, is that nonfarm payrolls delivers another strong upside surprise and prices paid rebound on the back of higher crude oil prices in recent weeks. That could lift the probability of a December hike above 50%, support the US dollar, and weigh on AUD/USD.
Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Correlations Face a DXY Reality Check AUD/USD remains most inversely correlated with the US dollar, with the 10-day correlation strengthening to -0.86. Positive correlations with the New Zealand dollar (0.92), copper (0.98) and the yuan (0.83) also remain firm, highlighting the importance of China sentiment and industrial metals. The S&P 500 has swung back to a strong positive correlation (0.89), while WTI crude has flipped negative, suggesting higher oil prices are currently weighing on AUD/USD rather than supporting commodity currencies.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report The Aussie has continued to defy the bears, rising for a fourth consecutive week and is out of the gates trying to notch up a fifth. Gross shorts continued to trend higher among large speculators and asset managers, dragging speculators' net-short exposure to a seven-month high of nearly 40k contracts.
Yet we should also note the gradual rise in gross longs among asset managers, who have added nearly 14k contracts over the past three weeks (26.4%) to take their gross-long exposure to 13.8k contracts.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels) With the US dollar index falling sharply following the FOMC meeting and coordinated yen intervention, AUD/USD has gained another source of support. But with the US dollar now sitting near a key support cluster, a runaway rally is far from assured.
Note that the US dollar index (left) is testing its 200-day EMA, sitting just above the 2026 bullish trendline and the 99.384 swing low. Given the speed of last week's selloff, this support area could prove favourable for dollar bulls over the near term, potentially capping AUD/USD's upside.
US Dollar Support Could Limit AUD/USD Gains AUD/USD (right) is also approaching its prior swing high while the Australia-US 2-year yield spread continues to point lower. That divergence also suggests upside may be limited, particularly if the ISM or nonfarm payrolls reports surprise to the upside, as I suspect they might.
For now, AUD/USD risk reversals continue to edge higher, suggesting demand for calls is increasing relative to puts. Even so, bears may be looking for evidence of a swing high and a pullback towards 70c. A break below that level would bring Thursday's low near 0.6950 into focus.
The most bullish scenario for AUD/USD this week would likely require a combination of weaker-than-expected US economic data and further rounds of yen intervention. For now, the latter appears to be weighing on the US dollar while supporting the Japanese yen.
UBS expects the Australian Dollar to strengthen steadily over the coming year, with AUD/USD forecast at 0.73 by September and 0.76 by June 2027. The Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) ended July at 0.7026, having gained 1.65% over the month and more than 5% since the start of the year.
That leaves the pair back above 0.70 after a difficult June, when AUD/USD fell 3.73% and briefly traded below 0.69. See our full history here.
UBS sees the recovery extending well beyond current exchange rate levels.
Its latest global forecasts put AUD/USD at 0.73 in September 2026, 0.74 in December, 0.75 in March 2027 and 0.76 by June.
The final target implies upside of just over 8% from the latest close.
The shape of the forecast matters.
UBS is not looking for one sudden surge.
It expects the pair to rise by roughly one cent in each quarter, pointing to a broader improvement in the Australian Dollar backdrop alongside a gradual weakening of the US currency.
We think that makes the 0.73 September target the key first test.
If AUD/USD can reach and hold that level, the later forecasts at 0.74, 0.75 and 0.76 become much easier to justify. If it fails well before then, the whole path starts to look more vulnerable.
The bank’s wider currency table also supports the view that this is partly a Dollar story.
UBS expects both EUR/USD and GBP/USD to rise over the same period, suggesting it sees a broad retreat in the US Dollar rather than an Australian Dollar move driven by domestic factors alone.
That distinction is important after softer Australian inflation reduced expectations for another near-term Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise.
The absence of an immediate hike removes one potential source of support for the Aussie, but it does not rule out further gains if US yields fall and the Federal Reserve becomes less restrictive.
A favourable global backdrop would help as well.
The Australian Dollar tends to perform better when equity markets are firm, commodity demand is improving and investors are prepared to hold more risk-sensitive currencies.
In our view, UBS’s forecast assumes those external forces will prove strong enough to outweigh any fading support from Australian interest rates.
The pair still has technical work to do before the first target comes into view.
AUD/USD closed July near 0.7026, above the rising 20-day moving average and around the declining 50-day average.
That is a clear improvement from late June, when the exchange rate fell towards 0.6880, but it is not yet a decisive medium-term breakout.
The immediate obstacle is the July high around 0.7044.
A move through 0.7050 would strengthen the recovery and bring 0.7100 back into focus.
Beyond there, resistance is likely around 0.7180-0.7200, followed by the May peak at 0.7277.
We would treat a break above 0.7277 as the point at which the UBS forecast starts to look technically credible.
That would complete the recovery from June’s decline and leave the market within reach of 0.73.
Image: AUD/USD three-month chart showing support near 0.7000, resistance around 0.7045 and the May high at 0.7277 The broader 2026 trend remains constructive, but the May high still guards the path to UBS’s first target The year-to-date chart is more positive than the shorter three-month view.
AUD/USD began 2026 near 0.6670 and has since gained 5.34%.
The pair rallied strongly through January, traded above 0.72 during the spring and reached a year-to-date high at 0.7277 in May.
The subsequent decline was sharp, but the exchange rate held well above its January low before recovering through July.
That leaves the broader upward structure intact.
The 20-day moving average has turned higher, while the 50-day average has begun to flatten.
A sustained hold above 0.70 would keep the recovery on course and increase the likelihood of another test of the spring highs.
Initial support is located around 0.7000, followed by the 20-day average near 0.6970.
A break beneath 0.6970 would weaken the near-term picture and expose the July support zone around 0.6940, with the late-June low near 0.6880 providing the more important downside level.
We would view a move back below 0.6970 as a warning that the July recovery is losing momentum.
Image: AUD/USD year-to-date chart showing the rise from 0.6670, May peak near 0.7277 and July recovery above 0.70 Share article
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UBS’s 0.76 forecast ultimately rests on more than the Australian Dollar story.
A move that far would require a sustained improvement in global risk appetite, supportive commodity conditions and a weaker US Dollar.
The first two targets look achievable if AUD/USD can maintain its position above 0.70 and clear the May high.
The longer-term move towards 0.76 would require a more convincing Dollar decline and a clear break from the broad range that has contained the pair since February.
For now, the technical tone has improved, but the exchange rate remains in recovery rather than full breakout mode.
A close above 0.7277 would materially strengthen the bullish case and place UBS’s 0.73 September forecast within reach.
Higher-for-longer RBA interest rate expectations, persistent domestic inflation, and widening yield differentials against the U.S. Federal Reserve continue to fuel the currency's upward trajectory Broader risk-on sentiment is adding tailwinds, as investors favor growth-sensitive, higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie over safe havens amid improving global market mood The RBA's August 11 decision and upcoming US data could quickly reverse momentum The Australian dollar experienced significant gains this week. Yesterday, it rose over 1% against the US dollar, marking one of its most substantial single-day movements this year. This upward trend continued today, reaching an intraday monthly high of 0.7045.
Zoom out, and the pair is up roughly 9% over the past twelve months. So what’s behind this fresh burst of momentum, and is it something traders should lean into or treat with caution?
What Is Driving this Jump? The main reason for the Aussie dollar’s quick rise is the growing gap in monetary policy between Australia and the United States.
Back home, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock again took a hawkish tone. She warned that underlying inflation is still too high, meaning more interest rate hikes aren’t off the table.
The official RBA Monetary Policy Statement confirms the central bank is determined to bring inflation back to its target. They’re keeping the official cash rate at a high 4.35%. This firm approach has made markets expect a longer period of tight policy compared to other G10 countries.
Concurrently, the US dollar faced headwinds following macroeconomic reports showing a distinct deceleration in second-quarter US GDP growth.
The combination of weaker US economic growth figures and expectations of future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has put downward pressure on US dollar yields. This situation is prompting a redirection of capital towards commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian dollar, which offer higher yields.
Secondary support for the Australian dollar comes from commodity prices and global risk appetite. Australia’s export sector is closely tied to industrial metals and energy. Consequently, any improvement in global market sentiment generally benefits the Australian dollar.
Is It Sustainable? That’s the harder question. The rate-differential argument holds only as long as the data keeps cooperating. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print or a surprisingly resilient jobs report could quickly revive Fed-hawkish bets and cap the Aussie’s gains.
On the Australian side, the RBA’s next decision on August 11 is a real event risk. Any indication of concern regarding the currency’s current strength or a resurfacing of growth anxieties could rapidly shift market sentiment. In the near-term, the price range of 0.7045-0.7065 is likely to be the key resistance level to monitor.
What Traders and Investors Should Consider For short-term traders, this market movement appears driven by specific data points and upcoming events, rather than a fundamental change in valuation. Therefore, careful position sizing in anticipation of the RBA announcement and the next US inflation and payrolls data releases is more critical than attempting to capitalize on the immediate breakout.
For longer-term investors, including those with Australian equity or currency exposure, it’s worth remembering not to overreact to a single week’s move. Rate-differential shifts like this can unwind quickly if either central bank changes its guidance.
Why has the Australian dollar risen sharply against the US dollar?
A shifting interest-rate differential is driving it, and markets now expect a more dovish Fed while the RBA looks set to hold rates through 2026.
Should investors increase AUD exposure immediately?
A measured approach is preferable. Confirmation of the breakout and favourable upcoming data would strengthen the case for adding positions.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates again soon?
While the RBA remains hawkish, recent cooling inflation makes an extended rate hold much more likely.
Asian FX intervention may not be finished yet BOJ surprise hike risk has increased marginally Softer US data adds to dollar pressure AUD/USD and NZD/USD break to fresh highs AUD/USD and NZD/USD ripped higher on Friday, fuelled by broad-based US dollar weakness following apparent coordinated intervention from Asian foreign exchange authorities, softer-than-expected US economic data and a surge in risk appetite after strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon.
Coordinated intervention rattles the US dollar The biggest driver behind the Australian and New Zealand dollars' outperformance was suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, likely undertaken in coordination with South Korean authorities and with at least tacit support from the United States. The move came with the US dollar already under pressure after the Fed opted against raising rates on Wednesday, providing an ideal backdrop to maximise the impact.
Source: TradingView
An important consideration for traders on Friday is that intervention often doesn't occur in one sitting. Earlier this year, Japanese authorities stepped into the market over several sessions rather than relying on a single operation. If authorities return to the market again, particularly around the Bank of Japan policy decision later in the session, it would point to renewed upside risks for AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Softer US data adds to dollar headwinds Amplifying the effectiveness of intervention, US economic data broadly disappointed on Thursday. Core PCE inflation rose 0.1% in June, below the 0.2% expected, while the annual rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%. The unrounded increase was 0.14%, meaning the downside surprise was marginal rather than dramatic.
Accompanying personal income and spending figures were also disappointing. Personal income rose just 0.2%, undershooting expectations, while personal spending increased 0.3%. With spending continuing to outpace income, the household savings rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level in four years. That questions the sustainability of the strong rebound in consumer spending seen during the June quarter.
US Q2 GDP also disappointed, weighed down by a sizeable drag from net trade that masked underlying strength in business investment and consumer spending. Annualised growth slowed to 1.5%, below the 2.1% consensus forecast. Consumer spending rebounded to a 3.2% annualised pace after a subdued first quarter, while business investment surged 15.2%, continuing to be supported by AI-related capital expenditure. The downside surprise instead reflected a widening trade deficit and inventory drawdowns, which subtracted almost 1.7 percentage points from headline growth.
Risk appetite returns with a vengeance Alongside softer US economic data and suspected intervention, the Aussie and Kiwi ripped higher as risk appetite surged. Strong earnings updates from Microsoft and Amazon fuelled the rally, with Microsoft adding more market value in a single session than any listed company on record.
Given their sensitivity to global risk sentiment, the improvement in sentiment helped drive gains not only against the US dollar, but across most major crosses, with the yen the one exception.
All eyes turn to Tokyo When it comes to what may influence the Aussie and Kiwi on Friday, the events of the past 24 hours suggest risk appetite, the Bank of Japan policy decision and the threat of further intervention from Asian FX authorities will matter far more than economic data. That was reinforced by the total lack of reaction to an upside surprise in Tokyo's July inflation report released early Friday.
Intervention raises the stakes for the BOJ I previewed the Bank of Japan meeting in detail earlier this week, and much of that analysis still holds true. However, the intervention episode over the past 24 hours has increased the risk, at least marginally, of the Bank of Japan moving pre-emptively to raise rates today rather than later in the year, with a full hike already priced into the overnight index swap curve by year-end.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made it clear he wants the Bank of Japan to continue normalising policy. If Japanese authorities are already working alongside their South Korean and US counterparts to strengthen the yen through intervention, it raises the question of whether the Bank of Japan may choose to oblige by delivering a surprise rate hike today.
While such a shock outcome would point to a sharply lower USD/JPY and potentially broader US dollar weakness, it would not necessarily be an outright positive for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. They may initially pop against the greenback, but given their sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite, would likely underperform lower-beta currencies if a surprise Bank of Japan hike sparked a broader risk-off episode.
As for when the Bank of Japan decision is likely to drop, it remains a frustration for traders worldwide that there is still no set time for the announcement. Generally, it tends to arrive around 12:30pm Tokyo time, although it can come earlier or later depending on how long the meeting runs. However, the general rule of thumb is that the longer it takes for the decision to drop, the greater the perceived risk that there may be some form of policy shock on the way. So expect markets to become extra twitchy if we extend well beyond 12:30pm Tokyo time.
AUD/USD breakout puts higher levels in play
Source: TradingView
AUD/USD had been coiling in what resembles an ascending triangle before a false downside break followed the softer-than-expected Australian June quarter underlying inflation report on July 29. However, that move has now been completely reversed, with the pair not only breaking back into the triangle structure, but also reclaiming the 50-day moving average and clearing resistance at 0.7020, the top of the structure.
With the price now holding above 0.7020, it provides a level to build long setups around, looking for an extension of the bullish move. Longs could be considered above that level, with a stop below, initially targeting the 100-day moving average at 0.7053 before resistance at 0.7080. A break above the latter would open the door for a potential run towards 0.7200.
The oscillators marginally favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has pushed above the neutral 50 level and continues to edge higher, while MACD has flipped into positive territory after staging a bullish crossover earlier this month. It's not a definitively bullish signal, but it does suggest upside momentum is building.
Should AUD/USD slip back below 0.7020 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the lower boundary of the triangle structure, which comes in around 0.6975 today.
Kiwi joins the breakout party
Source: TradingView
NZD/USD offers a similar technical picture to AUD/USD, breaking higher after grinding higher within an uptrend over recent weeks. The latest surge has seen it break above the confluence of the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, along with resistance at 0.5825 and, importantly, 0.5860, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over the past couple of months.
The break above 0.5860, taking the pair to its highest level since early June, suggests scope for a further extension of the bullish move. For those looking to play from the long side, longs could be considered while the pair holds above 0.5860, with a stop below, initially targeting 0.5920, another level that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance this year. A break above that would open the door for a retest of the double top at 0.5992 set in May and early June.
The oscillators favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has climbed to 64, with the bullish signal reinforced by MACD, which has crossed above the signal line, continues to diverge and remains in positive territory. That suggests upside momentum is building, favouring long setups.
Should NZD/USD slip back below 0.5860 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the moving average confluence zone and the uptrend, which comes in around 0.5775 today.
Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels AUD/USD has stalled beneath the monthly high after rallying in four of the past five weeks. Aussie has traded within a well-defined range below resistance for three consecutive weeks. A breakout from the current range to provide important directional guidance into August. Event risk on tap into the August open: US ISM services & manufacturing data, ADP employment, and NFPs Resistance 7023, 7116/20 (key), 7208/14- Support 6927, 6877/80 (key), ~6825 AUD/USD heads into the July close locked in a well-defined three-week range just beneath major resistance, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. Buyers continue to pressure the upper boundary of the range while sellers have been unable to force a meaningful rejection, underscoring the constructive nature of the monthly recovery without yet confirming a breakout. The focus now shifts to whether the weekly and monthly closes can provide the confirmation needed to resolve this consolidation heading into August. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie registered an intraday high at 7027 two-weeks later with price stuck in a well-defined range just below resistance for a third week.
Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the late-June advance at 6927 with key support steady at 6877/80- a region define by the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a deeper correction in the weeks ahead with subsequent support seen a the 52-week moving average (currently ~6824) and the 2025 close high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6717/57.
A topside breach of this key pivot zone would expose key resistance at the February high-close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20. Note that former pitchfork support converges on this threshold in mid-August and strength surpassing this slope would suggest a more significant low is place and potential resumption of the broader uptrend. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally at 7208/14 and the 2019 swing high at 7295.
Bottom line: AUD/USD has rallied four-of-the-past five-weeks (last week marked a weekly doji) with the bulls testing resistance at the monthly high for a third-consecutive week. The immediate focus heading into August is on a breakout of this range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6927 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.
Keep in mind we get the release of key ISM data next week with the July Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance into the August open. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Australia / US Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The AUD/USD pair turns lower following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6965 region on Thursday amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying. Spot prices, however, hold above an over two-week low, touched on Wednesday, and currently trade around mid-0.6900s, down less than 0.10% for the day.
The growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, helps revive demand for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, soft Australian consumer inflation figures on Wednesday led to some unwinding of near-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike bets, which undermines the Australian Dollar (AUD) and contributes to capping the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 0.7020 horizontal resistance and the overnight close below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifts below the neutral 50 line and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally below zero. Momentum indicators together hint at subdued bullish momentum and a corrective tone after recent losses.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through weakness below the overnight swing low, around the 0.6925 region, and a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6900 before positioning for further losses. The AUD/USD pair might then aim to challenge the June monthly swing low, around the 0.6865 zone, and extend the downfall further to the 0.6835 area, or the year-to-date low touched in March, and the 0.6800 round-figure mark.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-period EMA at 0.6974. A sustained move above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. Until then, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely to fade upticks while spot prices remain capped below the said EMA.
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.50%-0.10%-0.08%-0.28%0.67%-0.10%-0.11%EUR0.50%0.38%0.43%0.21%1.18%0.40%0.39%GBP0.10%-0.38%-0.09%-0.17%0.76%0.02%0.00%JPY0.08%-0.43%0.09%-0.21%0.76%-0.02%-0.12%CAD0.28%-0.21%0.17%0.21%0.94%0.19%0.17%AUD-0.67%-1.18%-0.76%-0.76%-0.94%-0.77%-0.80%NZD0.10%-0.40%-0.02%0.02%-0.19%0.77%-0.01%CHF0.11%-0.39%-0.00%0.12%-0.17%0.80%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Aussie Dollar fell nearly 0.5% on Wednesday morning, following softer-than-expected Australian CPI data (Q2 3.9% from Q1 / forecast 4.1% and monthly indicator Jun 3.8% vs May / forecast 4.0%) that almost sidelined expectations for rate hikes this year.
However, better-than-expected inflation numbers across the Western economies came as a result of recent US/Iran ceasefire, with renewed hostilities likely to revive inflationary pressures and change the current rate outlook.
The pair’s price fell to the lowest levels in nearly two weeks on Wednesday, marking over 50% retracement of 0.6865/0.7026 recovery leg, adding to developing negative signals.
Weakening technical picture on daily chart (south-heading RSI at 42 and 14- momentum hitting the centreline) support fresh bears, with daily close below 50% retracement (0.6945) to confirm signal and keep focus at the downside, though bears are expected to remain in play while the price stays below former range floor (0.6965) reinforced by 20DMA.
Firm break of 0.6945 to expose targets at 0.6926 (Fibo 61.8%) and 0.6900 zone (Fibo 76.4% / 200DMA).
All eyes are on tonight’s FOMC policy announcement, with the US central bank widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but Fed’s stance on near term policy action will be closely monitored.
The AUD/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day on Wednesday and dives to an over two-week trough following the release of softer Australian consumer inflation figures. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trade just above mid-0.6900s, still down around 0.25% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot below the monthly high, touched on Tuesday, as bulls opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision, due later today. This, in turn, offers some support to the AUD/USD pair. However, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran revives inflation fears. This, in turn, bolstered bets for at least one rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which favors USD bulls and backs the case for further depreciation for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 0.7000 psychological mark and the latest leg down below the 0.6965-0.6960 confluence support could be seen as a key trigger for AUD/USD bears. The said area marked the lower boundary of a two-week-old range and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from a multi-month low, touched in June. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38, hinting at lingering downside pressure.
Moreover, the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests that bearish momentum is present but not accelerating decisively. Moreover, an intraday resilience below the 50% retracement level makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the daily swing low, around the 0.6935 region, before placing fresh bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair. If selling extends, spot prices could fall to the 61.8% level at 0.6926 as traders await the FOMC decision.
Meanwhile, a deeper slide would expose the 78.6% retracement at 0.6898 and the structural floor at 0.6863, levels that could attract dip-buying interest should the current bearish bias persist.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.05%0.25%-0.15%0.02%0.64%0.22%0.15%EUR0.05%0.28%-0.09%0.06%0.69%0.26%0.19%GBP-0.25%-0.28%-0.48%-0.21%0.42%-0.01%-0.08%JPY0.15%0.09%0.48%0.14%0.76%0.35%0.19%CAD-0.02%-0.06%0.21%-0.14%0.59%0.21%0.13%AUD-0.64%-0.69%-0.42%-0.76%-0.59%-0.42%-0.49%NZD-0.22%-0.26%0.01%-0.35%-0.21%0.42%-0.07%CHF-0.15%-0.19%0.08%-0.19%-0.13%0.49%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
TL;DR: Australia’s soft CPI print has pushed all four major banks into agreement that the RBA’s tightening cycle is over for now, driving AUD/USD below its rising channel with 0.6750 emerging as the next major support cluster.
Why This CPI Print Changes the Story Australia’s softer inflation report is more than just another downside CPI surprise — it marks the point where markets concluded the RBA’s tightening cycle has effectively run its course. That shift in policy expectations triggered a sharp decline in AUD/USD, but its implications extend well beyond Wednesday’s trading session. With expectations for further RBA tightening fading rapidly, the Australian dollar is losing one of its few remaining domestic pillars of support.
What the Data Actually Showed The inflation data itself offered little justification for another near-term rate increase. Headline CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.8% y/y in June, while trimmed mean inflation was unchanged at 3.6%. Quarterly figures echoed the same trend, with headline inflation easing from 4.1% to 3.8% and trimmed mean inflation rising only modestly from 3.5% to 3.6%.
The most important detail, however, was how those figures compared with the RBA’s own expectations. Both the monthly and quarterly trimmed mean measures came in below the central bank’s May forecast of 3.8%. That outcome effectively validated Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks on Tuesday that underlying inflation had evolved broadly as expected since May — while also hinting the disinflation process may be progressing slightly faster than policymakers themselves anticipated.
Westpac’s Reversal Seals a Rare Bank Consensus The biggest surprise came from Westpac. Until Wednesday, it had been the only one of Australia’s Big Four banks still forecasting another rate hike in August. Following the CPI release, Westpac abandoned that call, now expecting the RBA to remain on hold for the rest of 2026 — leaving open only a conditional risk of a November hike should inflation reaccelerate sharply during the third quarter.
That revision carries significance beyond a single economist’s forecast. For the first time this tightening cycle, all four major Australian banks are united in expecting the RBA to leave policy unchanged through year-end based on current information. That consensus reinforces the perception that Australia’s monetary tightening phase has probably ended — unless a fresh inflation shock, such as another sustained surge in oil prices, materializes.
Where the Risk Shifts Now: The Fed and Asian Equities Attention therefore shifts away from Australia and toward global developments. Domestically, the policy story is largely settled for now. Externally, however, AUD/USD still faces several potentially bearish catalysts.
The first is the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision scheduled for today. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are widely expected to vote in favor of another rate increase. If additional FOMC members also dissent, markets would likely interpret the outcome as a more hawkish signal than currently anticipated — supporting higher Treasury yields and extending the Dollar’s recent strength. The second is regional risk sentiment. Asian equity markets remain fragile despite Wednesday’s brief rebound. Renewed selling in technology shares has already pushed the KOSPI roughly 17% lower this week, while pressure continues to build across the broader AI sector. Given the Australian dollar’s strong correlation with Asian equity performance and global growth expectations, a deeper regional correction could reinforce downside momentum. ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD The technical picture has already begun reflecting that deteriorating backdrop. AUD/USD broke decisively below its short-term rising channel after once again failing to overcome the falling 55 D EMA near 0.7004. The price action strongly suggests the rebound from 0.6864 ended at 0.7026 as merely a corrective recovery within the broader decline from 0.7277.
As long as rallies remain capped below the 55 4H EMA around 0.6981, the path of least resistance remains lower. A retest of 0.6864 should be seen next, with a sustained break opening the way toward the 61.8% projection of 0.7277 to 0.6864 from 0.7026, at 0.6771. That level sits just above a major medium-term Fibonacci support — the 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277, at 0.6756 — creating a critical support cluster around 0.6750.
Whether buyers are prepared to defend that area should decide whether the broader uptrend from 0.5913 remains intact or gives way to a much deeper medium-term decline.
Key Takeaways Australia’s Q2 trimmed mean CPI came in below the RBA’s own 3.8% May forecast, validating Bullock’s “evolving as expected” framing. Westpac abandoned its lone August hike call, leaving all four major Australian banks aligned on an RBA hold through year-end. Today’s FOMC decision and continued Asian equity weakness (KOSPI down ~17% this week) are now the dominant risks for AUD/USD, not domestic policy. AUD/USD broke its short-term rising channel after failing at the 55 D EMA (0.7004), with the 0.6864–0.7026 rebound now viewed as corrective. 0.6750 is the key support cluster to watch — a break opens a deeper medium-term decline; holding it keeps the broader uptrend from 0.5913 intact.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
/ / Risk-off sentiment is weighing on AUD/USD ahead of Australia's CPI report and the FOMC meeting. Here's what traders should be watching.
28/07/2026
7/28/2026 7:47:00 AM
The Australian dollar is trading on the back foot after a sharp selloff in Asian technology stocks dented risk appetite and dragged regional currencies lower.
With Australia's CPI report due next and the FOMC decision following shortly after, traders face two major macro events that could determine whether AUD/USD extends its recent pullback or regains upside momentum. At the same time, futures positioning, market sentiment and several technical levels suggest the pair may be approaching an important inflection point.
View related analysis:
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TL;DR: RBA Governor Michele Bullock has reframed Wednesday’s Q2 CPI report — the question isn’t whether core inflation is elevated, but whether it’s hot enough above 3.8% to justify an August RBA hike, with AUD/USD stalled at resistance ahead of the release.
Why This CPI Report Matters Australia’s Q2 CPI report is shaping up as the defining domestic event before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August 11 meeting. But Governor Michele Bullock may have already reframed how markets should interpret the numbers. The issue isn’t whether the RBA retains a tightening bias — it clearly does. The more important question is whether, after three rate hikes this year and a pause in June, there’s any pressing need to tighten again immediately.
Unless Wednesday’s inflation data delivers a meaningful upside surprise, Bullock’s latest remarks suggest policymakers are comfortable giving previous rate increases more time to work.
What Bullock Actually Signaled In a speech today, Bullock left little doubt that another hike remains on the table, stating the Board is “prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed.” Yet that statement was balanced by a more nuanced read on current conditions — she noted that underlying inflation has evolved broadly as expected since May, while acknowledging both housing activity and the labor market have softened more than the RBA had anticipated.
Those developments matter because they point to monetary policy exerting greater restraint on demand than the Bank itself expected only months ago. In other words, Bullock didn’t dilute the tightening bias — she signaled the urgency to use it has diminished.
The Number That Actually Matters: 3.8% That distinction makes Wednesday’s CPI report less about whether inflation remains elevated and more about whether it’s sufficiently stronger than expected to justify acting again in August. The quarterly trimmed mean inflation measure remains the RBA’s preferred guide, with consensus looking for a 0.9% qoq increase after 0.8% previously — lifting the annual pace from 3.6% to 3.7%.
That would mark a fourth consecutive quarterly reading within the 0.8%–1.0% range, confirming underlying inflation remains stubbornly sticky. Critically, it would still sit just below the RBA’s own May Statement on Monetary Policy forecast of 3.8% yoy — and that comparison may matter more than the consensus figure itself:
A print at or above 3.8% would suggest inflation is running hotter than the RBA anticipated, restoring a pressing case for an August hike A print around 3.7% or lower would reinforce Bullock’s view that inflation is evolving as expected, giving the Board little incentive to tighten immediately Headline CPI is expected to rise just 0.7% qoq after 1.4% in Q1, with annual inflation holding at 4.1% thanks to lower fuel prices — comfortably below the RBA’s own May baseline forecast of 4.8%, leaving the policy focus squarely on the trimmed mean.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD The rebound from the 0.6864 short-term low has stalled at a key resistance zone: the 55-day EMA (now at 0.7008) and the 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864, at 0.7022.
Three Factors Capping the AUD/USD Rally AUD/USD is facing three headwinds limiting its rally:
Receding RBA hike expectations — Bullock’s tone suggests policymakers are in no rush to tighten again immediately. Elevated Fed rate-hike expectations — a residual effect of the oil shock rather than its current direction. Brent has fallen sharply this week on the US-Iran pause, but at $83–88 it remains well above July’s $70 low, and the month’s spike toward $100+ has left markets pricing meaningfully higher odds of a September Fed hike than two weeks ago. The drag on AUD/USD isn’t where oil trades today — it’s what the month’s move has already done to rate expectations. Deteriorating risk appetite — regional technology stocks continue to struggle, weighing on the Australian Dollar. The KOSPI lost 10.84% today while the Nikkei fell 3.95% as markets reacted to concerns over Nvidia’s “circular financing” model. What Happens Next: CPI, the Fed, and the Path for AUD/USD A stronger-than-expected Q2 CPI print tomorrow might give AUD/USD a brief bounce. But that momentum won’t sustain unless the other two factors resolve. More importantly, the Fed rate decision also lands tomorrow, and a hawkish FOMC vote could easily overturn any CPI-driven boost.
On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected CPI report — or even an in-line print — could finally bring sellers in and push AUD/USD decisively through the 0.6964 minor support and the near-term rising channel floor. That would strongly argue the rebound from 0.6864 has completed as a corrective bounce, with a retest of the 0.6864 low likely next and the broader downtrend from 0.7277 poised to resume.
Key Takeaways The critical CPI threshold is 3.8% yoy trimmed mean — at or above revives August hike odds; at or below 3.7% supports an RBA pause Bullock’s tone suggests the RBA’s tightening bias is intact, but urgency to act again immediately has diminished AUD/USD is capped by three factors: fading RBA hike bets, lingering Fed hawkishness from the oil spike, and risk-off pressure from Asian tech selloffs Wednesday’s Fed decision could overturn any CPI-driven AUD/USD bounce regardless of the print A break below 0.6964 would confirm the rebound from 0.6864 as corrective, opening a retest of that low and a resumption of the downtrend from 0.7277
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling following the previous day's failure to find acceptance above the 0.7000 psychological mark and weakens to the 0.6970 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices move little in reaction to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s comments and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so.
The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its bullish undertone as the optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomacy to end a five-month-old conflict fades after Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks on Monday. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback, exerting some downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today.
The recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall suggest that the recovery from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has run out of steam. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive while the MACD line stays above the signal line, hinting that bullish momentum persists even as the neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests only modest directional conviction.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 23.6% Fibo. level before placing fresh bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair and positioning for a retest of the 200-day SMA at 0.6904. This is followed by the 0.6868 Fibonacci anchor, which reinforces a deeper structural floor should a corrective pullback unfold. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7024 ahead of the 50% retracement at 0.7073 and then 0.7121 at the 61.8% Fibo. level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.36%0.18%0.00%EUR-0.05%-0.03%-0.06%-0.06%0.32%0.15%-0.03%GBP-0.01%0.03%0.00%0.02%0.37%0.19%0.03%JPY-0.02%0.06%0.00%-0.00%0.34%0.17%0.02%CAD-0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.00%0.36%0.16%0.02%AUD-0.36%-0.32%-0.37%-0.34%-0.36%-0.16%-0.34%NZD-0.18%-0.15%-0.19%-0.17%-0.16%0.16%-0.15%CHF-0.01%0.03%-0.03%-0.02%-0.02%0.34%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday and oscillates in a narrow band around the 0.7000 psychological mark through the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) weakens in reaction to renewed optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, a slump in crude oil prices eases inflation fears and tempers US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which is seen as another factor undermining the Greenback.
Adding to this, expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lend additional support to the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy meeting this week.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair keeps a constructive near-term bias above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent goodish rebound from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.
Momentum readings also back this mildly bullish stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram. This hints that upside pressure is slowly building rather than exhausted.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.7019 before placing fresh bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair and a subsequent move to the 50% retracement at 0.7066. A sustained break above these levels would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. at 0.7113 and then 0.7180, with the swing high at 0.7265 acting as a more distant cap.
On the downside, first support emerges at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6961, ahead of the 200-day SMA around 0.6901, while a deeper slide would expose the Fibonacci anchor zone near 0.6867.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.31%-0.20%-0.16%-0.06%-0.29%-0.20%-0.37%EUR0.31%0.08%0.15%0.23%0.01%0.12%-0.06%GBP0.20%-0.08%0.07%0.16%-0.06%0.00%-0.13%JPY0.16%-0.15%-0.07%0.06%-0.14%-0.06%-0.19%CAD0.06%-0.23%-0.16%-0.06%-0.21%-0.13%-0.28%AUD0.29%-0.01%0.06%0.14%0.21%0.11%-0.08%NZD0.20%-0.12%-0.01%0.06%0.13%-0.11%-0.18%CHF0.37%0.06%0.13%0.19%0.28%0.08%0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6976 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges up, but is broadly weak, as surging US Treasury yields due to the revival of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations dampens investors’ risk appetite.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade firmly at around 4.70%, the highest level seen in over 18 months. S&P 500 futures trade cautiously near Thursday’s low at around 7,404, reflecting a risk-off market mood.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the policy meeting next week stand at 33.7%, significantly higher than 11.8% recorded last week. Fed’s interest rate hike prospects were also higher at around 34% a month ago, but they eased later after the release of the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
Surging oil prices due to risks of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, critical chokepoints that are collectively responsible for 27% of global energy supply, have boosted inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to advocate tight monetary conditions.
Higher US bond yields have also strengthened the US Dollar. At press time, the US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the three-week high at around 101.50.
On the domestic front, Australian employment data for June and the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July have come in stronger.
On Thursday, the labor market report showed that the economy created 76.3K fresh jobs, significantly higher than 44K in May. Earlier in the day, Australian Composite PMI arrived at 52.6, higher than 50.4 in June.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades marginally higher at 0.6975, hovering right on the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6975, which acts as a pivotal line for the near-term trend.
The pair is consolidating after recovering from late-January lows, and the neutral stance is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding just below the 50 mark around 49, hinting at balanced but still fragile momentum.
The Aussie pair might see a fresh upside towards 0.7100 if it breaks above the July 21 high at 0.7027. Looking down, the pair would be exposed to the June 30 low at 0.6865 once it breaks below the July 14 low at 0.6913
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD.
AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support from stronger-than-expected Australian employment data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6966, down 0.45% on the day.
The US Dollar gains as the Middle East war lifts safe-haven demand, while the resulting surge in Oil prices adds to inflation worries and strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.6948 and 0.6896, respectively, keeping the near-term outlook mildly constructive. However, the pair remains capped by the 50-day SMA at 0.7028.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally positive, but the fading green histogram suggests that bullish momentum is weakening.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at 0.7028, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7100 and then 0.7250. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at 0.6948, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6896. A sustained break below these levels would expose the 0.6800 mark.
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
The AUD/USD is seeing a cap on its medium-term uptrend move as geopolitical tensions escalate further along the Strait of Hormuz. Current Setup and Live Chart Regarding AUD/USD performance this week, the balance of risks is tilted toward modest weakness, with volatility likely to stay elevated due to market responses to Middle East geopolitical activity and US monetary policy expectations.
Currently, the AUD/USD is trading within a regime of risk sentiment vs safe-haven demand. The AUD currently benefits from resilient commodity exports, backed by the potential for more accommodative Chinese policy support. However, a strong US Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields have overpowered the AUD’s support channels and have put the pair under pressure.
The geopolitical climate is currently in an escalatory phase, which continues to drive safe-haven demand for the greenback at the expense of risk-associated commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar. On the other hand, investor sentiment and any positive stimulus developments from China will be the factors the AUD will look to for support. However, the market’s bias is currently for capital preservation via the flight to safety, even as oil prices continue to rise.
AUD/USD Macro Drivers 1) Bullish USD Sentiment
Despite last week’s U.S. inflation data showing a cooling of inflationary pressures in June, the U.S. dollar continues to retain broad-based strength, driving bond yields higher and generating safe-haven demand. The greenback is gaining support from continued expectations of caution on the part of the Federal Reserve in easing rates. Additional support also comes from stronger demand for U.S. government bonds as well as safe-haven flows. The market perception is that the U.S. economy remains resilient and robust, and these factors are expected to cap further rallies in AUD/USD in the near term.
2) China’s Economic Outlook
Australia’s robust export base, as well as the relative stability in commodity prices for gold, copper, natural gas, and iron ore, have helped to boost the country’s terms of trade and have formed a slight cushion against the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Although this supportive metric has been overwhelmed by safe-haven demand for the greenback, it still offers partial support for the Aussie dollar, limiting the downside potential of the pair.
3) Commodity Prices
Australia’s robust export base, as well as the relative stability in commodity prices for gold, copper, natural gas, and iron ore, have helped to boost the country’s terms of trade and have formed a slight cushion against the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Although this supportive metric has been overwhelmed by safe-haven demand for the greenback, it still offers partial support for the Aussie dollar, limiting the downside potential of the pair.
Price Catalysts for the AUD/USD 1) US economic data and Federal Reserve expectations
This is a key price catalyst for the AUD/USD. Data around US inflation and employment change (NFP) are critical in shaping the Fed rate expectations. Strong US data leads to a rise in US Treasury yields, which promotes a “higher for longer” Fed policy expectation.
2) Chinese and Australian economic releases: Australian employment change came in at 76.3K, which beat the consensus of 16.4K. The prior number was also revised upwards to 44.0K. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.4%. The robust outlook for the Australian labor market following this data provides for a near-term counter to the US Dollar’s strength, but the medium-term outlook stays in favor of the greenback. Of greater importance to the AUD’s outlook is the Chinese data set that comprises the
Chinese PMIs, industrial production, retail sales, and PBoC policy announcements. These Chinese data are considered critical to Australia’s export outlook.
3) Global risk sentiment: The AUD/USD is highly sensitive to risk sentiment. The Aussie Dollar is favored in risk-on market scenarios, while the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. The current geopolitical tensions around the US-Iran conflict are a risk-averse situation: they promote a flight to safety into the USD. They are negative for both China and the Australian economy. De-escalation promotes risk-seeking sentiment, which is supportive of the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD Forecast Scenarios Base case: neutral to mildly bearish due to the current balance between upbeat Australian employment data to counteract the current US Dollar strength, which is coming from higher US Treasury yields.
Bull case: softer US data and a decline in Treasury yields from the US end, boosted by stronger-than-expected Chinese stimulus measures and an improved environment for risk appetite, will cause commodity currencies such as the AUD to outperform while leading to weakness on the US Dollar.
Bear case: geopolitical escalation that leads to more flight to safety, stronger-than-expected US economic data, and a further rise in Treasury yields will boost the greenback. If there is no support from Chinese economic data, the AUD will be offered, creating a situation where the pair will slide below current support levels.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook Price remains in a medium-term uptrend. However, the latest round of USD strength has kept the pair range-bound, with the 0.7130 resistance and prior highs of 15 August 2022 and 30 January 2023 acting as the upper boundary. The 19 June 2023/16 September 2024 price highs at 0.6886 form the lower boundary.
Fig 1: AUD/USD weekly chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 23 July 2026) The bulls need to uncap the upper boundary at 0.7130 to clear a path to the May 2026 high at 0.7276. Beyond this barrier, the next resistance comes in at the November 2021/March 2022 high at 0.7547.
On the flip side, a breakdown of the 0.6886 support unlocks access to downside targets at 0.6796, followed by 0.6596 if the retracement is more extensive. Below this price mark, which is formed by the low of 15 December 2025, a further pivot that holds the lows of May-November 2025 is showcased at 0.6410.
AUDUSD (Australian dollar) finds psychological support
The AUDUSD (Australian dollar) hopes to stop the reversal after finding crucial support at the 0.7000 zone.
Overall, the pair remains bullish to hit a higher high if prices remain above the said support. The RSI’s move to the neutral area triggered the bearish move, which could continue towards 0.6940. Bulls will need to clear 0.7060 before they can hope for a meaningful rebound.
USOIL hits another high
Crude is on the charge after Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines.
A series of fresh highs sees bulls remain in control as whispers of the 90.00 level look to be tested soon. On the downside, 86.00 is the first target and bears could look to double down on their positions if prices begin to creep lower. For now, a slight pullback ensues as the black gold awaits the next signal. NAS 100 tech sell-off continues
The Nasdaq looks to take a breather as the bear rally continues.
The index came across some buying interest as tech stocks hope for a fight back. Profit-taking could drive the price lower as there are signs of liquidation. Overall sentiment remains bearish, and trend followers look eager to jump in for another fresh low towards 28200. 29400 is the closest resistance, and 30000 is the obstacle to lift.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of the upbeat Australian jobs report, which lifted bets for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness lifts spot prices to the 0.7020 region in the last hour, back closer to an over one-month high set on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions and rising supply disruption concerns lift crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven Greenback and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a modest bullish near-term bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 0.7200 (late May high) and the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 41-hour chart. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 validates the constructive outlook without signaling overbought conditions.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram flattens just below the zero line, hinting that upside momentum is positive but not aggressive. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront initial resistance at the 50.0% level at 0.7033. Furthermore, the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.7072 should act as the next hurdle in the current recovery sequence.
Further up, the 78.6% level at 0.7129 and the cycle high region at 0.7201 mark stronger barriers. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.6993, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 0.6976. A deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.6944, with the broader bullish structure only threatened on a slide toward the anchor low near 0.6865.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.14%-0.06%-0.03%-0.12%-0.21%0.00%-0.10%EUR0.14%0.09%0.13%0.01%-0.07%0.16%0.04%GBP0.06%-0.09%0.04%-0.08%-0.17%0.04%-0.06%JPY0.03%-0.13%-0.04%-0.10%-0.19%0.02%-0.09%CAD0.12%-0.01%0.08%0.10%-0.10%0.14%0.00%AUD0.21%0.07%0.17%0.19%0.10%0.24%0.14%NZD-0.01%-0.16%-0.04%-0.02%-0.14%-0.24%-0.14%CHF0.10%-0.04%0.06%0.09%-0.01%-0.14%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Commodity-linked currencies remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The United States has maintained strikes on targets in Iran, while the Tehran-backed Houthis have intensified threats to shipping in the Red Sea and near key oil transit routes. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for traditional defensive assets, supporting the US dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.
In the coming trading sessions, market participants will focus on Australia’s labour market report. Employment growth is expected to slow sharply, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Weaker-than-expected figures could add pressure to AUD/USD by reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue easing monetary policy.
For USD/CAD, attention will also turn to the weekly US crude oil inventory data. Although geopolitical developments continue to support oil prices, the outlook for commodity-linked currencies will depend not only on the direction of the energy market but also on incoming macroeconomic data and further developments in the Middle East.
AUD/USD AUD/USD has begun to lose upside momentum after testing the key resistance zone between 0.7000 and 0.7030. On the daily chart, a doji candlestick has formed, suggesting the pair could resume its decline towards the 0.6920–0.6870 area. However, a decisive break and close above 0.7030 could open the way for a further advance towards 0.7080–0.7100.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Employment Change Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Labour Force Participation Rate Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
USD/CAD USD/CAD has formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern after rebounding sharply from the significant support level at 1.4000. The technical outlook suggests the pair could extend its recovery towards the 1.4170–1.4200 region if the pattern plays out. Conversely, a break below 1.4000 could expose the next downside target around 1.3900–1.3940.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Applications Index Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Core Retail Sales
Overall, geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the US dollar while limiting the recovery of commodity-linked currencies. Over the coming days, the key drivers for AUD/USD and USD/CAD will be Australia’s labour market data, movements in oil prices, and further developments in the Middle East. If geopolitical risks remain elevated, the US dollar may continue to outperform. Conversely, easing tensions or weaker-than-expected US economic data could support a recovery in commodity-linked currencies.
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The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and extends its sideways consolidative price move around the 0.7000 psychological mark on Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its recent strong gains registered over the past four days amid escalating US-Iran tensions and expectations that energy-driven inflation would force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike rates in 2026. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
However, speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will tighten policy further might continue to lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair and opt to wait for the Australian June employment data on Thursday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, have been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Hence, acceptance above the said barrier is needed to back the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair's recent bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just above the neutral 50 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showing a positive reading. This hints at sustained buying interest as long as the AUD/USD pair stays supported on dips.
In the meantime, nearby support below the current area is seen around the 23.6% retracement at 0.6955, with the 200-day SMA at 0.6894 protecting any further pullback ahead of the broader structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor at 0.6857.
On the topside, strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7015 should allow the AUD/USD pair to accelerate the positive move towards the 50.0% level at 0.7064 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7113. The next relevant resistances are aligned at 0.7182 and 0.7271, subsequent Fibonacci barriers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.52%0.51%0.64%-0.48%0.15%0.55%EUR-0.18%0.35%0.28%0.46%-0.65%-0.04%0.36%GBP-0.52%-0.35%-0.09%0.11%-1.00%-0.38%0.06%JPY-0.51%-0.28%0.09%0.21%-0.94%-0.42%0.14%CAD-0.64%-0.46%-0.11%-0.21%-1.07%-0.63%-0.05%AUD0.48%0.65%1.00%0.94%1.07%0.62%1.04%NZD-0.15%0.04%0.38%0.42%0.63%-0.62%0.44%CHF-0.55%-0.36%-0.06%-0.14%0.05%-1.04%-0.44% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
AUD/USD has broken to its highest level in four weeks, but the rally still lacks a convincing domestic foundation. The Australian Dollar has benefited from a favorable global backdrop as risk appetite improved across Asia, the Dollar weakened broadly, and copper prices surged on worsening supply disruptions in Chile. Additional support came from New Zealand, where stronger-than-expected inflation data lifted the Kiwi and added momentum to antipodean currencies more generally.
Those tailwinds, however, are largely external. Whether the Aussie can extend its gains will depend far more on Australia’s labor market report due on Thursday. Employment has shown little net progress over the past two months, following a -40.7k decline in April and a 40.3k rebound in May, raising questions about whether tighter monetary policy, higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to cool hiring. Consensus forecasts call for employment to rise by 15k in June while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.
The labor market data could also prove decisive for interest rate expectations. Investors currently see only about a one-in-five chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver a fourth rate hike this year in August. That leaves employment data with considerable scope to shift market pricing.
A disappointing report would strengthen the case that policy tightening is gaining traction and further reduce expectations for an August increase. On the other hand, another solid employment gain would reinforce the resilience of the economy and reopen the debate over additional tightening.
Technically, AUD/USD’s breach of 0.7020 temporary top suggests that rebound from 0.6864 is resuming. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864 at 0.7022 will argue that whole decline form 0.7277 has already completed, and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.7119 and possibly above.
However, rejection by 0.7022, followed by break of 0.6964 support will argue that the rebound has completed as a correction. And in this case, fall from 0.7277 could be ready to resume through 0.6864 low.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.28% higher to near 0.7018 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean gains as the market sentiment turns risk-on amid hopes that the United States (US) and Iran could stop exchanging attacks soon.
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%-0.13%0.05%-0.06%-0.30%-0.37%-0.05%EUR0.07%-0.05%0.09%0.01%-0.20%-0.31%0.02%GBP0.13%0.05%0.17%0.07%-0.15%-0.24%0.08%JPY-0.05%-0.09%-0.17%-0.10%-0.32%-0.43%-0.09%CAD0.06%-0.01%-0.07%0.10%-0.23%-0.31%0.00%AUD0.30%0.20%0.15%0.32%0.23%-0.09%0.26%NZD0.37%0.31%0.24%0.43%0.31%0.09%0.32%CHF0.05%-0.02%-0.08%0.09%-0.01%-0.26%-0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures are 0.45% higher to near 7,477, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.11% lower to near 100.89, signifying diminishing appeal of safe-haven assets.
On Monday, Iran confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators stating a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal.
On the domestic front, investors await the employment data for June, which will be released on Thursday. Australian labor market report is expected to show that the economy created 15K fresh jobs, lower than 40.3K in May. The Unemployment Rate is seen remaining steady at 4.4%.
This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary Australia and the US private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7016, maintaining a constructive near-term tone as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6975, hinting at emerging underlying demand after the recent recovery. Momentum is supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) advancing to 55.8, suggesting bullish pressure is building without yet reaching overbought territory.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 0.6975, followed by the June 30 low at 0.6865. Looking up, the pair could extend its recovery towards 0.7100.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Employment Change s.a. The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish.
Watch for price to get below the equilibrium level first. Wait for price to tap demand zone. Watch for a bullish shift and bullish reversal signs in the demand zone. Wait for all above to play out first then plan the sell entry, stops and targets with confidence. If price continues higher above the range high without tapping below the equilibrium level or demand zone then trade setup is cancelled.
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart July 20 2026
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AUD/USD started a steady increase above 0.6950 and 0.6975. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6950 on the 4-hour chart. Gold prices declined and might dip below $3,950. USD/JPY could gain bullish momentum if it settles above 162.70. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase from 0.6865 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD climbed above 0.6900 and 0.6950 to enter a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared many hurdles near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7088 swing high to the 0.6865 low. The pair also settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7035. The next major resistance might be 0.7050. A close above 0.7050 could start a steady increase.
In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 0.7120. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 0.7200. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 0.6965.
The first major support could be near 0.6950. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6950. A downside break and close below 0.6950 might send the pair toward 0.6910. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 0.6865.
Looking at Gold, the bears remained in action below $4,150, and they might even target a move below $3,950.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average – Forecast 18K, versus 19.75K previous.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.12% higher to near 0.6995 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair bounces back after a weak opening, as the US Dollar faces selling pressure amid intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not hike interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower around 100.70. The USD Index fell sharply after a strong opening move.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the July meeting are 85.6%, up from 65.8% recorded last week. Market participants turned confident that the Fed will maintain the status quo in the July meeting after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which showed that inflationary pressures cooled down.
On the Australian Dollar front, the currency outperforms its major peers, following the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy announcement, in which it left Prime Lending Rates (PLRs) unchanged.
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6990 at press time, holding a modestly bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6970. The pair has reclaimed this short-term trend indicator after its late-June weakness, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.8 sits just above the neutral line, suggesting stabilizing upside momentum rather than aggressive buying pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 0.6970, which is likely to act as the first line of defence on any pullback, followed by the recent price troughs below 0.6950 if sellers regain control. Below 0.6950, the March 30 low at 0.6874 will be the key support level. As long as spot holds above the 0.6970 region on a daily closing basis, the technical tone should remain mildly constructive. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards 0.7100 if it manages to break above the July 15 high at 0.7021.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/USD enters the week with bulls retaining a slight edge, despite mixed signals across the charts and increasingly bearish futures positioning. Australia's employment report is the standout event on an otherwise quiet calendar, with traders watching to see whether it can provide the catalyst for the pair's next move.
View related analysis:
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Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders It is a good job we have the employment report on Thursday, otherwise the domestic calendar would officially be dead. Though it runs the risk of being a non-event if it continues to chug along with decent-ish figures.
Any concerns that Australia's labour market was beginning to roll over were put on the backburner after May's figures. Unemployment edged down to 4.4% from the 4½-year high of 4.5%, while employment rose by 40.3k, even if most of the gains came from part-time jobs. The figures should allow the RBA to retain a mildly hawkish bias, although they are unlikely to strengthen the case for another rate hike in the near term.
Source: ABS, LSEG
Unless the US flash PMIs deliver a meaningful surprise in either direction on Friday, or an unexpected catalyst emerges, it could prove to be another relatively quiet week for AUD/USD volatility from the economic calendar.
Appetite for risk may weigh on AUD/USD sentiment slightly should Wall Street earnings surprise to the downside, and traders will also keep an ear out for the latest saga of the US-Iran war.
Australian Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies Another mixed performance from the Aussie dollar last week, rising against safe-havens Japanese yen and Swiss franc, the US dollar and euro. AUD was effectively flat against the British pound, and lost ground to the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD rose for a third week, though only just managed to recoup its losses sustained during the week it fell below 70c AUD/CAD remains within its choppy sideways range, holding above the April high and 20-week EMA for now AUD/CHF increased for a second week, though handed back gains on Friday around the 2015 SNB-spike low AUD/EUR tracked AUD/USD higher for a third week, though last week’s doji warns of weakness to the underlying move AUD/GBP snapped a 3-week losing streak with a marginal gain of 0.04%, showing neither bulls or bears are in control for now AUD/JPY enjoyed its best week in 8 with its 0.9% gain, with bulls potentially eyeing another attempt at breaking above 115 should sentiment allow AUD/NZD suffered its worst 3-week run in 15 months and closed below 1.20
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Correlations The inverse relationship between AUD/USD and the US dollar index remains consistently strong across the 10, 20 and 60-day timeframes. Positive correlations with the offshore yuan and NZD also remain firm, while links with equities are generally weak, suggesting broader risk sentiment is playing a smaller role in driving the Australian dollar.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report Futures traders continued to turn more bearish on the Australian dollar last week, with gross longs declining and short positions increasing. Large speculators lifted net-short exposure for a fifth consecutive week to a 31-week high of 30.4k contracts. Asset managers were more measured, increasing net-short exposure by 3.2k contracts after adding 5.2k shorts while also increasing long positions by 1.9k contracts.
There is little in this dataset to suggest anything beyond a modest deterioration in sentiment towards the Australian dollar, with positioning still well short of bearish extremes. If anything, it suggests AUD/USD could remain rangebound, with rallies likely to be capped unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis There are a few mixed signals, although the bias may be tilted slightly to the upside this week. While AUD/USD advanced for a third consecutive week, it formed a wide-bodied, long-legged doji, highlighting indecision. Looking beyond the five-week rally at the end of February, the Australian dollar has generally seen winning streaks end after the third week over the past 15 months.
The daily chart, however, remains constructively bullish. A higher low and bullish engulfing candle formed above the 200-day EMA last week. While resistance emerged at the 50-day EMA, the narrow two-day pullback suggests bears lack conviction. With the AU–US two-year yield spread rebounding from multi-month lows, bulls may instead look to buy dips this week, even as implied volatility trends lower.
Volatility remains below its 20-week average, although it has begun to edge higher, as shown by the high-to-low percentage range indicator in the lower-right panel.
The 70c level remains the main hurdle for bulls. A sustained break above it would bring the one-week implied volatility range into focus, with the upper band pointing towards 0.7050. Beyond that, I suspect bears may still be seeking another crack at the March low.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.6990 during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar ticks higher amid fears that the United States (US) inflation could re-accelerate after slowing down in June.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.80.
Fears of a resurgence in US inflation are prompted by elevated energy prices amid continued aggression in the Middle East. Above that, Iran has threatened to close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes Iranian infrastructure.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t return to the table for negotiations.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) front, investors await the employment data for June, which will be released next week.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly lower at around 0.6990, but maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6969. The pair has recovered from late-May lows and is consolidating just over this dynamic floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests neutral-to-positive momentum without yet reaching overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6969, followed by the July 14 low at 0.6913. Below 0.6913, the pair could slide to near the March 30 low at 0.6833. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards the June 18 high at 0.7042.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The AUD/USD daily chart shows price reclaiming the 0.70 level off its 200-day EMA, with 0.72 capping the range. Source: TradingView. The Australian dollar is pretty noisy. It did break higher over the last couple of days, so maybe the 200-day EMA will end up being a support level after all. It did hang around that indicator a couple of weeks. Now it’s pressuring the 50-day EMA, and it’s just above the 0.70 level.
If the US dollar continues to weaken, then it would make sense that the Australian dollar could benefit from it. After all, the RBA recently sounded a little more hawkish, and if there is inflation and commodities start to take off, a lot of traders will default to the Aussie dollar to play that market.
At this point, it does look more positive than negative, but I’m not expecting explosive moves in this type of environment unless something changes. We are in an uptrend that has gone sideways over the last several months. The top of that sideways action is somewhere closer to the 0.72 level, so we’ll have to pay attention and see if that ends up being a target.
AUD/USD edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.7000 during the early European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an emerging bullish bias.
The AUD/USD pair is caught between nearby Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) as the pair consolidates after its recent recovery. Price holds above the nine-period EMA, which offers immediate dynamic support, but remains capped by the 50-period EMA just overhead, keeping the near-term bias broadly neutral with a slight constructive tone. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.0 sits just above the midline, hinting at modest bullish momentum rather than a decisive trend.
The AUD/USD may find the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA of 0.7012, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7030. A sustained break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and lead the pair to explore the region around 0.7277, the highest since June 2022, recorded on May 6.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6962, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6930. Further declines below the channel would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to test a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%0.03%-0.10%0.00%0.02%-0.14%0.03%EUR0.07%0.09%-0.04%0.08%0.17%-0.06%0.09%GBP-0.03%-0.09%-0.11%0.00%0.06%-0.14%0.02%JPY0.10%0.04%0.11%0.09%0.20%-0.03%0.13%CAD-0.01%-0.08%-0.00%-0.09%0.10%-0.12%0.04%AUD-0.02%-0.17%-0.06%-0.20%-0.10%-0.20%-0.06%NZD0.14%0.06%0.14%0.03%0.12%0.20%0.15%CHF-0.03%-0.09%-0.02%-0.13%-0.04%0.06%-0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
AUDUSD (The Australian dollar) remained choppy as consumer confidence jumped out of negative territory.
• As the pair searches for a recovery to the previous swing high at 0.6980, a bearish RSI divergence could signal a halt to the potential rally.
• 0.6960 is the first level to expect some resistance after the recent announcement.
• Further down, 0.6880 at the bottom of the latest bounce is the first layer of support if price action turns around.
• A full reversal can take shape back towards 0.6840 if bears remain in the market.
XAUUSD steadily sinking
Gold continues to be pressured as price action looks to break through the 4000 level.
• On the chart, the metal continues to grind lower after dropping over $100 in just a few short sessions.
• Bulls will need to lift 4120 and then 4190 to make the rebound count.
• Otherwise, renewed selling could send the price below 3930.
UK100 finding support
The index market across the board looks for a reprieve as energy prices are expected to rise.
• The FTSE 100 hit another low after last week’s sell-off.
• 10350 is a key level to keep the index afloat, as its breach could trigger a further continuation lower.
• Bulls will need to clear 10600 to put the index back on track as the RSI moves away from the oversold area, potentially causing a bullish divergence in the process.
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Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI) Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
USD/CAD Following confirmation of the bearish tower top reversal pattern, selling pressure on USD/CAD intensified, reinforced by the weaker-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, the pair declined below 1.4100. Technical analysis suggests there is scope for a further move lower towards the 1.3960–1.4020 area. A decisive break back above 1.4120 could revive the bullish outlook.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
Overall, the weaker US inflation report strengthened expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, weighing on the US dollar and supporting commodity-linked currencies. However, the next moves in AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on upcoming economic data and the Bank of Canada’s policy guidance.
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The AUD/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 0.6945 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 101.16.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.19%-0.13%-0.32%-0.31%-0.84%-0.29%EUR0.11%-0.09%0.00%-0.19%-0.21%-0.73%-0.17%GBP0.19%0.09%0.09%-0.11%-0.10%-0.64%-0.09%JPY0.13%0.00%-0.09%-0.18%-0.20%-0.73%-0.18%CAD0.32%0.19%0.11%0.18%-0.01%-0.52%0.03%AUD0.31%0.21%0.10%0.20%0.00%-0.53%0.05%NZD0.84%0.73%0.64%0.73%0.52%0.53%0.56%CHF0.29%0.17%0.09%0.18%-0.03%-0.05%-0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Market participants will pay close attention to the inflation data as the latest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have signaled that they are more concerned about high inflation than subdued job market conditions.
On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that another hot inflation figure would be a “signal”, not a noise, about the need to tighten monetary conditions further.
According to estimates, the US headline CPI growth cooled down to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is seen declining by 0.1%, while core figures are estimated to have remained steady at 0.2%.
Meanwhile, upbeat China’s Trade Balance data has strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD), which showed that trade surplus widened by USD125.62 billion against +USD121 billion estimates and the previous reading of +USD105.43 billion.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6943 at press time. However, the near-term tone of the pair remains bearish as spot remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.6957. The pair’s inability to recover this short-term EMA hints at persistent overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 44 keeps momentum mildly negative without reaching oversold territory, suggesting sellers retain control but lack strong conviction.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.6957, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias. The pair could extend the recovery towards the June 23 high at 0.7006 if the pair breaks above the EMA. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 7 high of 0.6766 if it drops below the March low of 0.6904.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Trade Balance USD The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
AUD/USD edges higher after posting 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bearish bias.
The AUD/USD pair is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is attempting to stabilise after recent losses, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests only modest recovery momentum, hinting that any rebound may stay capped while price trades below these clustered moving-average barriers.
The AUD/USD pair may fall toward a nearly six-month low of 0.6833, recorded on March 30. Further declines would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6770.
On the upside, the AUD/USD is testing the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6932, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.6960. A break above the channel would cause a bullish emergence and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.7011.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.10%-0.13%-0.18%-0.17%-0.75%-0.16%EUR0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.07%-0.07%-0.63%-0.05%GBP0.10%-0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.05%-0.64%-0.05%JPY0.13%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.07%-0.65%-0.07%CAD0.18%0.07%0.06%0.06%-0.01%-0.57%0.01%AUD0.17%0.07%0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.57%0.03%NZD0.75%0.63%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.57%0.59%CHF0.16%0.05%0.05%0.07%-0.01%-0.03%-0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the pair's reversal from Friday's 0.6970 highs found support above 0.6120. Rising tensions in Iran have hammered risk appetite, but the US Dollar’s weakness is keeping the Aussie from retreating further.
US and Iran escalated hostilities over the weekend, and Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting Crude prices. This adds pressure to central banks to hike interest rates in order to contain inflation, in a context of sluggish global growth.
The Aussie, however, is drawing some support from the US dollar’s weakness. Risk aversion has failed to support the Greenback on Monday, as investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due on Tuesday, and the testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh to the US Congress.
Technical Analysis: Aussie breaks the descending trendline
AUD/USD trades at 0.6941, holding a constructive near-term bias after breaking and confirming above the trendline resistance from early June highs. The four-hour Relative Strength Index is trading back and forth around 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers near the zero line, highlighting a lack of a clear bias.
On the topside, Bulls need to break Friday's highs, in the 0.6970 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June selloff, at 0.7020, to confirm a bullish reversal and target the Mid June highs around 0.7085. On the downside, session lows at 0.6923 are likely to provide some support ahead of the broken trendline, at 0.6880 and the June 30 low at 0.6865.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The AUD/USD pair builds on its modest weekly bearish gap opening and retreats further from a two-and-a-half-week top, near the 0.6970 region, touched on Friday. Spot prices drop to the 0.6930-0.6925 area during the Asian session as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns and bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which provide an additional boost to the Greenback. However, a bullish technical setup warrants caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a multi-month low, touched in June, has run out of steam.
From a technical perspective, the currency pair stays above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, hinting at a mild recovery and validating the positive outlook.
That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 still reflects only a tentative improvement from recently weak momentum. Furthermore, the recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibo. The level warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair as the market focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.
In the meantime, immediate support is reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 0.6878, ahead of the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6849. A deeper protection emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. level around 0.6747, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves on a more meaningful pullback.
On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6951 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 0.7077, which, if cleared, would give way to unlock a more decisive advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.16%0.23%0.07%0.26%-0.07%0.16%EUR-0.18%-0.01%0.04%-0.11%0.09%-0.21%-0.00%GBP-0.16%0.01%0.07%-0.10%0.14%-0.18%0.05%JPY-0.23%-0.04%-0.07%-0.16%0.04%-0.26%-0.01%CAD-0.07%0.11%0.10%0.16%0.20%-0.08%0.15%AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%-0.20%-0.26%-0.03%NZD0.07%0.21%0.18%0.26%0.08%0.26%0.24%CHF-0.16%0.00%-0.05%0.01%-0.15%0.03%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Australian dollar enters the week on uncertain footing after its recent recovery began to lose momentum. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be monitored, but the spotlight falls on Tuesday's US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. While CPI is likely to drive markets, traders will also be listening for any fresh policy signals from Warsh. Futures positioning, options markets and yield spreads point to growing downside risks, although a stronger US dollar may still be needed to trigger a meaningful move lower in AUD/USD.
View related analysis:
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Australian Business or Consumer Sentiment Unlikely to Shift the RBA I see a lot of data points, but only one or two with real substance. Australian consumer and business sentiment will be worth monitoring, but unless they deteriorate sharply, they are unlikely to be enough for the RBA to abandon its hawkish bias. While business confidence plunged back in March after the RBA’s tightening cycle began, negativity has eased across all industries and the headline figure has recouped around half of its losses from -29 to -14.
The main focus will, of course, be Tuesday's US inflation report. With inflation already expected to rise, the key question is whether the pace of the increase slows. ISM Services Prices Paid edged higher from already elevated levels, and a similar trend has emerged in recent CPI and PPI data. Producer prices and retail sales are also released on Wednesday and Thursday, although their impact will likely depend on whether Tuesday's CPI delivers any surprises.
US CPI Headlines a Busy Week for the US Dollar Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress will also be on traders' radar, although it may struggle to compete with US CPI for market attention. As this is one of his first major appearances as Fed chair, markets will be listening for clues on his policy stance and communication style. Unless he signals a meaningful shift in the Fed's outlook for inflation or interest rates, his remarks are unlikely to trigger a sustained move in the US dollar.
China's data dump, alongside Q2 GDP on Tuesday, also warrants a look. However, these releases have had little meaningful impact on global markets or the Australian dollar for some time.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report Net-short exposure continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week, although the move was driven primarily by a reduction in long positions rather than a surge in fresh short selling. The 7k increase in net-short exposure among large speculators lifted their bearish positioning to a 30-week high of 25.2k contracts. Asset managers, meanwhile, reduced their net-short exposure by 1.9k contracts.
While neither group is positioned near a sentiment extreme, neither appears especially bearish either. AUD/USD posted another modest bullish week following its extended selloff, and with markets entering one of the quieter periods of the year, volatility is likely to remain subdued unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Correlations
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Risk Reversals Turn Bearish as Yield Spread Weakens The downtrend on the daily chart remains intact, and bulls already appear to be losing momentum after a modest bounce from just below the 69c handle. Friday's bearish shooting star candle fell short of both the June 11 low (0.6979) and the monthly pivot point (0.6990), suggesting AUD/USD may be nearing the end of a three-wave countertrend bounce around its 20-day EMA.
Risk reversals have begun to turn lower, indicating that demand for puts is rising relative to calls. While they remain elevated relative to AUD/USD prices, the move points to a subtle shift in sentiment among options traders against the Aussie. More importantly, the AU-US two-year yield spread has turned lower and appears on the brink of breaking to a new cycle low. This could prove significant, as the spread led the top in AUD/USD by a couple of weeks.
While this paints a more bearish near-term picture for AUD/USD, a fresh catalyst and a notable rise in the US dollar may still be required before assuming a break below the 200-day EMA (0.6875), which sits near the lower one-week implied volatility band.
The US Dollar Index formed an inside week and a spinning top doji above the March high as prices consolidated around the 200-week EMA. If the index can hold above 100.50, the odds of renewed downside for AUD/USD remain elevated this week.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Australian Dollar Performance Across Major Currency Pairs It was another mixed week for the Australian dollar, and a clear game of two halves against its commodity FX peers. This ties in with my suspicion that moves in AUD/USD could remain limited, as the bigger macro trends tend to unfold when a currency's direction is broad-based.
The Aussie was effectively flat against the Canadian dollar, with AUD/CAD mostly trading between 0.98 and 0.99 within a sideways range, despite an otherwise solid uptrend. Yet the Aussie weakened against the New Zealand dollar for a second consecutive week, sending AUD/NZD to a five-week low after the RBNZ meeting, with bears now eyeing a potential break below 1.20.
AUD/EUR rose for a second week as the Aussie gained traction against the euro, and I suspect this could be an early signal for a slightly more bullish AUD/GBP after its third consecutive weekly decline posted a particularly narrow range.
A modest recovery in risk sentiment helped the Australian dollar rise against the safe havens. A weaker yen on Friday also provided support after the Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced that large institutions are being encouraged to buy domestic assets. While the policy is supportive of the yen over the longer term, it was not an intervention. A broadly weaker Swiss franc also helped AUD/CHF climb 0.9% for its best weekly performance in three months.
AUD/USD advances toward the 0.6960 area on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and renewed strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The pair continues to recover on the four-hour chart, although escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are limiting broader risk appetite.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran had requested further negotiations and that Washington had agreed to continue talks. However, Trump warned that the ceasefire was “over,” raising concerns that hostilities could intensify despite diplomatic channels remaining open.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan strengthened to a one-week high against the US Dollar, offering additional support to the Australian Dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China. The move followed a stronger fixing from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7989, below the key 6.8000 level.
The latest price action also points to improving momentum in AUD/USD. The pair is trading above its short and medium-term moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory without signaling overbought conditions.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive policy stance, supporting the USD and limiting further gains in AUD/USD. Softer inflation, by contrast, could weigh on the Greenback and help the pair extend its advance.
In Australia, attention will turn to Consumer Inflation Expectations. The report will offer fresh insight into how households expect prices to develop over the coming year and could influence expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6956, retaining a mildly bullish tone as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934. The clustering of short and medium-term SMAs beneath price suggests a supportive backdrop, while the RSI around 58 indicates constructive but not overextended bullish momentum, leaving room for further upside provided immediate overhead barriers are challenged.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6958, ahead of a tighter cap at 0.6961, with a more notable barrier emerging at 0.6970, where buying pressure could start to fade if momentum cools. On the downside, first support is seen at 0.6949, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.6938 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6934, where a break back below these levels would undermine the current constructive bias and hint at a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar has steadied near 0.6940 against the US Dollar after giving back part of this week's gains following a sharp rally at the start of July.
UOB believes the recent pullback is likely to prove temporary, with upside momentum continuing to build for the Australian Dollar.
The bank expects AUD/USD to remain range-bound between 0.6900 and 0.6950 over the next 24 hours, arguing that any further weakness should be limited.
According to UOB, "upward momentum is building tentatively, and the risk of AUD breaking above 0.6980 is increasing."
The bank believes this positive bias will remain intact provided AUD/USD holds above the key support level at 0.6900.
While UOB continues to expect further gains over the coming weeks, it remains cautious over the longer-term outlook. The bank maintains its one-to-three-month bearish view, warning that if AUD/USD falls below 0.6835, the next downside target would be the 2025 high around 0.6707.
For now, UOB expects the Aussie to consolidate before making another attempt to challenge resistance around the 0.6980 level.
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 09.07.2026 Nasdaq continues selling off
Intraday analysis covering EURUSD(The euro) , AUDUSD , and NAS 100, highlighting recent price movements, key technical levels, and short-term momentum shifts across major markets.
EURUSD remains undecided
EURUSD(The euro) took a break from moving towards more multi-week highs but remains bullish.
The pair has been inching higher and lower since last Friday’s NFP data, which saw a decline in job numbers. 1.1430 is the first hurdle for bulls on the path higher. As the RSI ventures away from the overbought area, the recent bottom could serve as firm support at 1.1340. 1.1550 is the next key level should a bullish extension ensue. AUDUSD stays congested
The US dollar continues to gain traction across the board as risk appetite remains heightened.
The current rebound from the 0.6960 top has kept momentum to the downside. Now that buyers are seemingly out of the picture, the path is mostly clear for a move lower towards 0.6865. However, a push above the latest resistance could lead to another rally, with 0.7000 becoming a psychological resistance. NAS 100 hits another low
The Nasdaq remained pressured after global indices fell lower with fresh attacks in the Middle East.
On the chart, the price is moving towards 28400 as bearish momentum attracts sellers. However, a bullish RSI divergence could indicate a deceleration in the downward spiral and might lead to a pullback if traders begin to close positions. 30000 is the closest resistance at the recent gap, and its breach would send the index towards 30800 to claim another record.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6935 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower despite escalating Middle East risks and hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.92.
The attacks on Iranian infrastructure by United States (US) military forces signal that the restart of the war would last long, a scenario that might keep oil prices higher and the appeal of safe-haven assets upbeat. According to Axios, the US Air Force bombed two railway bridges in Iran on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes showed on Wednesday that policymakers are concerned about upside inflation risks and several of them see the need to tighten monetary conditions to ease price pressures.
In the Australian region, traders might consider raising hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets again as Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter has reiterated that the central bank would act, if needed, for inflation to return to target and maintain sustainable full employment.
Lately, traders pared hawkish RBA bets as the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) has cooled down in the last two months.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly higher at around 0.6936, but maintains a bearish near-term tone as it remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6963.
The pair has been unable to reclaim this short-term trend proxy, suggesting that rallies are likely to be capped while price holds under the EMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.46 stays below the midline, hinting at persistent, though not extreme, selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at 0.6963, which is the first level bulls would need to overcome to ease the current downside bias. Above the moving average, the next resistance for the pair will be the psychological level of 0.7000. Looking down, the June low at 0.6865 is the key support level; a break below that would expose the pair to the March low at 0.6833.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more.
Last release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: -
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels AUD/USD has broken below its multi-month uptrend after falling more than 5% from the yearly highs. Weekly momentum has slipped below 50 for the first time since November, reinforcing the shift in trend pressure. Aussie is attempting to stabilize above major support with the July opening range taking shape just above- breakout pending. A break below support would signal continuation of the broader decline while a rebound above former support would suggest potential false break scenario. Event risk on tap: FOMC minutest today & CPI, retail sales next week. Resistance 6943, 7023 (key), 7116/20- Support 6877/50 (key), ~6796, 6717/57 AUD/USD has broken below its multi-month uptrend after a sharp decline from the yearly highs, shifting the technical focus toward the July opening range and a major support zone just below. Weekly momentum has turned over, and the question now is whether Aussie can stabilize above support and carve out a near-term low, or if the breakdown opens the door to another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we highlighted the inflection risk as AUD/USD approached multi-month uptrend support while noting that, “rallies would need to be limited to 7116 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below parallel support needed to fuel the next leg lower.” Aussie registered an intraweek high at 7089 the following week before breaking sharply lower with the decline extending more than 5.6% off the yearly highs into the close of June. The decline marks a break of the multi-month uptrend and pushes weekly momentum (RSI) below 50 for the first time since November.
AUD/USD rebounded off support last week at the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 6877/80. The July opening range is being carved just above this zone, and the focus is on a potential breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance here.
Initial weekly resistance is eyed with the 2024 swing high at 6943 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the May selloff at 7023. Note that this level converges on former uptrend support over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this slope would suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the February high close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20.
A break below this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the 52-week moving average near ~6796 and 6717/57- a region defined by the 2025 close high and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2025 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
Keep in mind we get the release of FOMC minutest within the hour with key inflation data on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Australia / US Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.21%-0.50%0.03%EUR0.03%0.05%0.17%-0.00%-0.18%-0.49%0.05%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.13%-0.03%-0.25%-0.52%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.17%-0.13%-0.18%-0.34%-0.65%-0.15%CAD0.02%0.00%0.03%0.18%-0.18%-0.48%0.02%AUD0.21%0.18%0.25%0.34%0.18%-0.30%0.18%NZD0.50%0.49%0.52%0.65%0.48%0.30%0.49%CHF-0.03%-0.05%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.18%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This year, the RBA has already delivered three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) and has pushed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%.
Going forward, investors will focus on China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6944 at press time. However, the near-term tone is mildly bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.6967. The pair’s inability to reclaim this nearby EMA resistance suggests topside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.75 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not extreme selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 0.6967, which needs to be overcome to shift the near-term bias toward recovery and open the way for a more sustained rebound. Looking down, the June 30 low at 0.6865 is the key support zone; a break below that would open further downside towards the March 30 low at 0.6833.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Sticky inflation expectations revive Fed hike fears Risk appetite deteriorates as tech stocks tumble Bearish engulfing pattern strengthens AUD/USD downside risks RBNZ, FOMC minutes headline today's event risk AUD/USD came under pressure on Tuesday as both of its dominant drivers moved against it. As things stand, the pair is behaving like a two-part front-end rates pricing, one-part risk appetite play. If that relationship holds, traders should keep a close eye on US rate expectations, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and performance of risk assets in Asia on Wednesday.
A shift in market dynamics The correlation matrix below highlights an important shift in recent market dynamics. Rather than behaving as a pure risk proxy, AUD/USD has increasingly traded as a relative rates play over the past week, with Australia-US front-end yield spreads emerging as the dominant driver of price action.
Source: TradingView
Inflation expectations bite The biggest driver of the overnight repricing in Fed expectations came from the New York Fed's June Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023, while three-year expectations climbed by the same amount to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Crucially, both measures increased despite respondents expecting gasoline prices to rise at the slowest pace since August 2022.
Source: TradingView
With inflation having remained above target for more than five years, a renewed pickup in inflation expectations despite easing energy price pressures is unlikely to make for comfortable reading at the Federal Reserve.
Markets responded by adding to Fed tightening bets, with futures now implying around 42 basis points of additional tightening over the next 12 months, up from around 33.5 basis points this time yesterday. While firmer oil prices and heavy Treasury issuance also helped push yields higher, the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey appeared to be the primary catalyst behind the repricing, coming in the absence of any other major US economic releases.
Source: TradingView
That helped lift US front-end Treasury yields relative to Australian government debt, extending the recent narrowing in the Australia-US two-year yield spread and adding to the downside pressure on AUD/USD.
Risk appetite retreats Risk sentiment also proved to be a headwind for the Aussie. Technology stocks remained under pressure amid growing questions over whether excessive AI infrastructure spending remains warranted, with Amazon's latest bond offering attracting softer demand than a similar deal earlier this year. Even Samsung's blowout earnings earlier in the session failed to satisfy investors' lofty expectations, extending the recent bout of profit-taking across semiconductor stocks.
Geopolitical tensions also intensified after renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the United States to revoke the licence permitting Iranian crude exports and launch retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets, adding to the cautious tone across markets.
Today's key risks Looking ahead, the first scheduled risk event comes at 11am AEST when the RBA’s chief economist Sarah Hunter speaks at the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra. With little major Australian economic data released recently, the speech may not offer fresh insights in the outlook for monetary policy, although markets will be alert for any changes in tone.
Attention will then turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision at midday AEST. While the event is centred on New Zealand, it often spills over into AUD/USD, with the Australian dollar typically moving in the same direction as the kiwi, albeit to a lesser extent.
The performance of Asian risk assets will also warrant close attention after Tuesday's heavy losses across Japanese and Korean technology stocks. Should that weakness extend into today's session, it would add another headwind for a currency that continues to display a meaningful positive relationship with broader measures of risk appetite.
Focus later in the session will then shift to the release of the June FOMC minutes, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders should be prepared for the format and level of detail to differ from previous iterations. However, with half of policymakers projecting at least one rate hike this year and Warsh striking a hawkish tone at his post-meeting press conference, markets should approach the release expecting the minutes to reinforce that hawkish message.
Bears regain control
Source: TradingView
The technical picture has turned more constructive for bears following the formation of a engulfing candle on the daily timeframe on Tuesday. The reversal came after AUD/USD's rebound from just above the 200-day moving average stalled at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move, adding weight to the signal given it occurred at a well-defined resistance level. While confirmation is still required, the setup points to an increased risk of a retest of the 200-day moving average at 0.6872 and the late-June swing low at 0.6866.
More broadly, the pair remains in a well-defined downtrend, continuing to post lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators remain broadly bearish despite showing signs of stabilising. RSI (14) remains below the neutral 50 level and has broken the minor uptrend in place over the past fortnight, while MACD has crossed above its signal line but remains deeply negative. Rather than providing a green light for bulls, the crossover looks more like a warning that downside momentum may be easing rather than reversing. The bearish bias is reinforced by the 50 and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now sloping lower, leaving the broader technical backdrop favouring selling into rallies and downside breaks.
Outside the abovementioned levels, initial resistance is found at 0.6979, marking former support from mid-June. Above that, the downtrend from the June multi-year high intersects just above 0.7000 alongside the 50 and 100-day moving averages, with more resistance found at 0.7080. On the downside, a break below the 200-day moving average and the June swing low at 0.6866 would expose the late-March low at 0.6835. Beyond there, attention shifts to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move at 0.6757, which also coincides with a breakout zone from earlier this year.
Tuesday’s action, shaped in tight Doji candle, suggests that recovery leg from 0.6865 (June 30 low) starts to lose traction, following repeated failure at initial Fibo barrier at 0.6961 (23.6% retracement of 0.7271/0.6965) reinforced by falling 20DMA.
Overbought stochastic and south-turning RSI (currently at 42) on daily chart, warn of potential correction, if Fibo barrier at 0.6961 continues to cap.
Dips should be contained by broken 10DMA (0.6914) to keep near-term bias with bulls and prospects for acceleration towards 0.7000/20 pivots (psychological / Fibo 38.2%) and 0.7068 (50% retracement / 100DMA) in extension.
The notion is supported by softer tones from the US central bank on monetary policy, particularly on signals of weakening US labor sector, after disappointing June NFP data that almost fully sidelined expectations for Fed rate hike this month and dropped bets for a hike in September’s policy meeting.
On the other hand, the RBA kept hawkish stance that contributed to divergence of monetary policy views of two central banks and underpinned the Aussie dollar.
Conversely, any hawkish shift from the Fed may hurt near-term structure and risk retest of 200DMA (0.6868), key medium-term support, which keeps broader bulls (from Apr 2025) in play.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The AUD/USD retreats slightly from the 0.6960 area, or a two-week high, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The intraday downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, warranting caution before confirming that a one-week-old recovery move from a three-month low has run out of steam.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Furthermore, mixed momentum oscillators make it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near 0.6870.
In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a slight improvement in the upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests only modest directional pressure, consistent with a consolidative bias around current levels, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz support the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6853, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 61.8% Fibo. near 0.6752, with 0.6608 and 0.6425 marking subsequent retracement and cycle-low supports if selling extends. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6954 would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement barrier at 0.7079, while the cycle high around 0.7282 stands as a more distant objective should bullish momentum gain traction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.13%-0.99%-0.10%0.04%-0.83%-0.85%-0.25%EUR0.13%-0.88%0.04%0.15%-0.71%-0.66%-0.12%GBP0.99%0.88%0.93%1.01%0.15%0.21%0.75%JPY0.10%-0.04%-0.93%0.17%-0.69%-0.64%-0.18%CAD-0.04%-0.15%-1.01%-0.17%-0.87%-0.80%-0.28%AUD0.83%0.71%-0.15%0.69%0.87%-0.01%0.59%NZD0.85%0.66%-0.21%0.64%0.80%0.01%0.51%CHF0.25%0.12%-0.75%0.18%0.28%-0.59%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
