The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 110.60 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Hawkish remarks from Japanese authorities provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Wednesday that underlying inflation is moving securely toward the central bank’s 2% target. Earlier on Monday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that underlying inflation is near the 2% target. He further stated that if the bank raises the short-term policy rate, long-term interest rates are likely to rise steadily with policy.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy board member Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday that the inflation outlook is materially worse than the bank had forecast. The odds of an interest rate increase in the November policy meeting climbed from 30% before Hauser’s comments to 45%, according to the Guardian.
Japan export momentum extends despite softer-than-expected gainsAnalysts at Deutsche Bank note that early data for September showed a further solid performance from Japan’s external sector, with exports rising by “+16.7% in September compared to the same month last year,” supported by “robust demand for semiconductors and AI-related products that continued to support growth.” They highlight that this “marked the 13th consecutive month of gains following a 9.3% rise in August,” even though the latest print fell short of “expectation of a +21.3% increase.” On the import side, Deutsche Bank points out that “imports rose by +18.9% y/y, falling short of the forecast of a +20.4% increase,” and that this softer outcome helped narrow the external shortfall, with “a decrease in imports” contributing to a reduction in Japan’s trade deficit “to -536.6 billion yen in September from -1.11 trillion yen in the previous month.”
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY holds a modestly bearish outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a modestly bearish bias, holding below the longer-term 100-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading above the 20-day Bollinger SMA, suggesting a capped recovery within a broader corrective context. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, hinting at neutral momentum and reinforcing the view of consolidation rather than a decisive bullish reversal as long as overhead resistance remains intact.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 111.15, en route to a stronger barrier at the 100-day SMA near 112.10. A desicive break above this level could see a rally to the June 16 high of 113.55 and then the July 27 high of 114.67.
On the downside, immediate support level is seen at the 20-day Bollinger midline around 110.20, followed by the 110.00 psychological level. Further south, the next contention level to watch is the lower limit of Bollinger band near 109.20, where a break lower would reopen the door to deeper losses.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The AUD/JPY surges for the fourth straight day and approaches key resistance levels as bulls gather momentum, hitting a new monthly high above the October 14 daily high of 111.13. The cross-pair trades at 111.04, up 0.24%.
Price action shows that a ‘double bottom’ chart pattern has formed, with AUD/JPY poised for a breakout above 111.50, slightly below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 111.57.
A decisive break opens the door for a move towards the 200-day SMA at 111.76 ahead of 112.00. Up next is the 100-day SMA at 112.12. Once those key resistance levels are taken out, bulls' next target is the ‘double bottom’ measured target objective of 227 pips, from around 111.13 to 113.40.
On the downside, the most difficult part is that the AUD/JPY must drop below 110.00 for sellers to retest the monthly lows reached on October 15 at 108.64.
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/JPY se po lepších než očekávaných údajích o čínském HDP za 3. čtvrtletí, který meziročně vzrostl o 4,5 %, vrátil nad úroveň 110,00. Růst však může omezit rezistence na úrovni 110,17.
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Monday, recovering further from an eight-month low, around the 108.65-108.60 region, touched last week. Spot prices climbed back above the 110.00 psychological mark during the Asian session amid a combination of supporting factors.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gets a minor lift in reaction to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Chris Kent's hawkish remarks and China's better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP), showing that the economy expanded by 4.5% YoY in the third quarter. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is undermined by cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, acting as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. Traders, however, remain on high alert that Japanese authorities might step in again to prop up the domestic currency. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders.
From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a dense Fibonacci retracement band overhead. This, in turn, suggests that rallies could be sold into despite a mildly constructive backdrop from the Relative Strength Index around 52 and a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading. The AUD/JPY cross currently trades just under the 38.2% retracement at 110.17, and the next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 50.0% level at 110.63 ahead of the 200-period SMA at 110.93.
Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 111.10 could cap the currency pair ahead of 111.76 and 112.61. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement near 109.59, with a break below exposing the recent swing low around 108.66 as the next significant bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/JPY 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
AUD/USD před zveřejněním australské zprávy o zaměstnanosti vykazuje medvědí signály; míra nezaměstnanosti ve výši 4,7 % či více by mohla zvýšit tlak na měnový pár.
The Australian dollar is showing signs of vulnerability against the US dollar and Japanese yen, with bearish inverted hammer candles emerging on both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. A potential swing high near 70c on AUD/USD adds to the downside risks ahead of Australia's employment report, particularly if unemployment rises faster than the RBA expects.
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While we have time on our sides to see if that is indeed a large head and shoulders top in play on the weekly charts, AUD/USD is setting up for a potential swing high around 70c.
The daily chart shows a volatile inverted hammer formed on the daily chart, with a false break of its 20—day EMA and the 20-day capping the daily high as resistance. With a high-to-low range of 0.9%, it marked a 1-standard deviation range and its most volatile in eight. The face it still closed lower despite much of that range being earlier in the day plays to the advantage of bears, as it could realign momentum with the higher-timeframe head and shoulders pattern.
For now, perhaps we’re simply looking for a move down to 69c near its October low.
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen
A similar setup may be emerging on AUD/JPY, though the daily chart doesn’t quite have the same bearish structure as AUD/USD. But the daily chart does also show an inverted hammer candle – with its most volatile daily range in seven.
The 200-day EMA is supporting for now, though a break of its also invalidates yesterday’s low for bears to assume bearish continuation.
A cluster of historical resistance levels including the 191 and 2024 highs make potential support levels over the near term, or intraday day targets for bears. But we need to see a clear break of the March and October low (108.78) before assuming bears have truly regained control. But if they do, the next major support level is the December VPOC near 106.52.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Australian Employment Report Could Pressure AUD/USD Bulls
Australia’s labour force report lands in a few hours. We know the RBA has retained a hawkish tone and that policymakers are concerned inflation may be more broad-based than simply high energy prices. This places CPI reports front and centre, though employment still matters to a degree.
Moreover, unemployment has been rising at a faster pace than the RBA’s own forecasts, so an unemployment rate of 4.7% or higher could cause further issues for Australian dollar bulls. And while job growth has been positive, part-time employment has been the main driver, while full-time employment has been slightly negative.
So the ideal scenario for AUD/USD bears is a rising unemployment rate alongside negative full-time job growth, with a contraction in headline employment being the cherry on top.
The AUD/JPY cross comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and retreats further from the 110.65 resistance zone, retesting the previous day. Spot prices slide to a fresh daily low during the early European session, with bears now awaiting a break below the 110.00 mark before positioning for further losses.
Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the domestic currency. Adding to this, firming expectations for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) provide a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from an 18-month peak and might help limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices keep a bearish intraday bias following the overnight rejection around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading of -0.03, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.48 stays neutral, hinting that downside pressure is present but not yet overstretched. This, in turn, validates the near-term negative outlook for the AUD/JPY cross.
That said, some follow-through selling and acceptance back below the 23.6% Fibo. level and the 110.00 psychological mark is needed to back the case for deeper losses to the structural floor at 108.73. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA at 110.58, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level at 111.12 and the 200-period SMA at 111.42, before the 50.0% retracement at 111.85 and the 61.8% level at 112.59 come into play. Higher up, the 78.6% retracement at 113.64 and the cycle high at 114.98 mark a broader cap.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.30%-0.19%-0.27%-0.12%-0.10%-0.27%-0.21%EUR0.30%0.10%0.02%0.18%0.17%0.03%0.09%GBP0.19%-0.10%-0.10%0.04%0.07%-0.09%-0.01%JPY0.27%-0.02%0.10%0.15%0.16%-0.01%0.07%CAD0.12%-0.18%-0.04%-0.15%0.01%-0.16%-0.08%AUD0.10%-0.17%-0.07%-0.16%-0.01%-0.16%-0.10%NZD0.27%-0.03%0.09%0.00%0.16%0.16%0.08%CHF0.21%-0.09%0.00%-0.07%0.08%0.10%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
AUD/JPY se po dvou dnech poklesu přiblížil k 110,50, protože opatrná komunikace BoJ snížila pravděpodobnost říjnového zvýšení sazeb ze 40 % minulý týden na 12 %.
AUD/JPY retested the 110.50 level after securing four daily gains, driven by renewed appetite for risk-sensitive assets and technical buying. Cautious Bank of Japan communications reduced near-term rate hike expectations, while sticky Australian inflation keeps RBA rate hike risks plausible. Key risks that could reverse gains include stronger Japanese data, hawkish BoJ signals, weaker commodities or a broad risk-off move favouring the yen. The AUD/JPY currency pair has fluctuated this week. The Australian dollar gained against the Japanese yen in four of the last six trading sessions, and after two straight declines, AUD/JPY approached the 110.50 level during the Asian trading session.
Is this recent upward movement a sustained recovery, or just a temporary pause before a potential decline?
Why Buyers Are Returning Signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are bringing buyers back. Even though the BoJ hiked interest rates in September, markets found its guidance less aggressive than expected.
Comments from Governor Ueda on Tuesday and statements from board member Ayano Sato, who advocated for a gradual approach to monetary policy tightening, suggest that borrowing the yen may remain inexpensive for now.
Markets now price in a much lower chance of an October rate hike from the BoJ, now around 12% compared to last week’s 40%. This shift has lowered immediate demand for the yen, potentially prompting carry traders to rebuild long positions in the Australian dollar.
Australia’s higher interest rate differential also provides ongoing fundamental support for the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept a tighter monetary policy than the BoJ, which gives the Australian dollar a yield advantage.
Is the Upside Momentum Sustainable? This upside momentum, however, needs more confirmation to prove sustainable. While buyers did push the pair back above the 110.00 psychological level, it’s still below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 112.45.
Short-term technical indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on lower timeframes, look overbought. For this uptrend to continue, we’d need a clear daily close above 111.00.
Fundamentally, the interest rate differential and the BoJ’s cautious stance offer some support. But these gains will need ongoing confirmation to stick.
If Japanese monetary policy stays gradual and Australian economic data holds up, the pair might extend its recent climb. Yet, the broader technical picture suggests sellers could keep pushing down on rallies until it breaks past key moving averages.
Potential Disruptors Ahead Several factors could disrupt the current rebound. Any hint of a more hawkish shift from the BoJ or stronger Japanese economic data could reignite rate hike expectations and strengthen the yen.
Reports suggest President Trump discussed concerns about yen weakness with Prime Minister Takaichi, sparking talk of a possible joint US-Japan intervention. This kind of intervention would directly oppose yen weakness, and it could happen with little warning.
On the Australian side, given Australia’s heavy reliance on raw material exports to China, any unexpected weakening in Chinese manufacturing or industrial output would hurt the Australian dollar.
A general move towards risk aversion in global markets also often sends investors to the yen as a safe-haven, potentially pushing AUD/JPY lower. So, we’ll need to watch upcoming central bank meetings and key economic data releases closely.
What’s driving the recent buying interest in AUD/JPY?
Softer comments from the Bank of Japan have reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 12%, weighing on the yen. Meanwhile, Australia’s higher yields continue to support the Australian dollar.
What could disrupt the current recovery?
The key factors that could disrupt recovery include stronger Japanese economic data, more hawkish signals from the BoJ, weakness in commodity prices, or a broad move to risk aversion that strengthens the yen as a safe haven.
What’s the main technical resistance limiting AUD/JPY’s immediate gains?
The 100-day Simple Moving Average near 112.45 is a significant overhead resistance. It’s currently capping any bigger upward moves.
AUD/USD maintains strong relationships with global cyclical equities
VIX futures influential in recent Aussie price action
AUD/JPY tracking Australian–Japanese yield spreads more closely
Contrasting technical formations put both crosses on breakout watch
The Australian dollar finds itself trading within two technical structures that could have very different implications against the US dollar and Japanese yen, putting both pairs on the watch list for potential breakouts in the short to medium term.
While risk appetite appears to be exerting greater influence on AUD/USD, relative yields have seemingly become more influential for AUD/JPY. However, there are important considerations for both pairs that traders should be aware of before contemplating potential setups.
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY: Different drivers at work
Before looking at the technical picture for both pairs, it's noticeable that AUD/JPY, which has long been regarded as a risk proxy, has more recently been behaving like a relative yields play, with AUD/USD seemingly more closely tied to risk appetite, particularly in cyclical assets.
Source: LSEG
You can see that in the correlation matrix above, with a positive and strengthening relationship between AUD/USD and industrial equities, reinforced by the very strong inverse correlation with VIX futures. There's also evidence of linkages with industrial metals, although we haven't seen the consistent strengthening witnessed against industrial equities.
Even though a degree of caution is required given the relatively short time frames, the evidence suggests risk appetite, more than yields, likely explains much of the Aussie's struggles recently.
However, when it comes to AUD/JPY, the matrix shows strong positive relationships with Australian–Japanese yield spreads across the two-year, five-year and 10-year tenors, whereas there is no meaningful relationship with cyclical assets.
Again, it's a very short window, so the message needs to be treated with a degree of caution. But more recently, relative yield movements may have been more influential on the pair.
AUD/USD: Another bearish continuation pattern emerging?
Source: TradingView
AUD/USD has been in a pronounced downtrend since the high set on September 9. Within that broader trend, we've seen a number of consolidation phases that have eventually broken down, with the pair's performance often aligned with the technical patterns it was trading in.
The latest is a structure resembling a triangle on the four-hourly chart, although the limited number of touches on either side, particularly along the rising support line, still provides reason for caution.
A level of note near where the price currently trades is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the Liberation Day low in April 2025 to the May 2026 high. While the price continues to trade around this level, it's arguably more of a reference point than one that could be used for trade construction.
Given the direction of travel into the structure, should it play out as convention would suggest, traders should be alert to the risk of a downside break, potentially putting a retest of the October 1 low of 0.6907 into play, where the structure initially formed.
Beyond there, levels of note on the downside include the 0.6860–0.6865 support zone, reflecting two nearby swing lows, followed by 0.6835, another low established earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators is broadly neutral, with RSI (14) sitting just beneath the 50 level, while MACD is running parallel to the signal line, both just in negative territory. That places greater emphasis on the price action in the near term.
However, it's clear from the path of travel over the past month that selling into rallies remains the preferred play unless we see a sustained break of the downtrend.
Should the triangle be broken on the topside, accompanied by a break of the September downtrend, it would weaken the case for short setups, putting levels such as 0.7004 and 0.7040 into play.
AUD/JPY: Potential falling wedge takes shape
Source: TradingView
AUD/JPY is beginning to coil in what resembles a falling wedge on the four-hourly chart. While not shown, the structure has formed following the powerful rally from the lows set during the Liberation Day rout in April 2025, strengthening the case for a potential topside breakout given its characteristics as a bullish continuation pattern.
Right now, the price finds itself towards the upper side of the structure, having pulled back following a false break on Wednesday.
109.90 is a reference point just beneath where the price currently trades, having acted as both resistance and support over recent days. While only a minor level, it looms as one that could be used for setup construction by traders unwilling to wait for a potential breakout of the broader structure.
Should we see a sustained push through descending resistance extending from the highs set in early September, 110.65 is the first level of note, marking the high set earlier this week. Beyond that, 111.00, 111.58 and 112.62 are the next topside levels to watch.
Below 109.90, the lower boundary of the structure is currently found around 108.90, although the price also spent some time trading either side of 109.50 earlier this week, putting that level on the radar.
The lower boundary is also close to 108.78, a swing low set on April 1 this year from which a savage rally ensued, making the 108.78–108.90 region a support zone of note in the near term.
The message from the oscillators is again neutral, placing greater emphasis on the price action, particularly with very little on the macro calendar over the remainder of the week.
As such, risk appetite and sentiment, including developments in crude prices and their influence on global bond yields, loom as the fundamental factors to watch in the days ahead.
Understanding cycle structures helps traders navigate complex forex moves with clarity. AUDJPY analysis showed Elliott Wave principles identified a corrective end and anticipated a sharp 400‑pip sell‑off.
The Forecast: Identifying the Wave 2 Peak
In our September 21, 2026 analysis, AUDJPY was completing a 3‑wave rally from the 108.90 region. The rally into 112.61 marked wave 2 (or ((c)) of 2), aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 112.88. A red Turning Down tag appeared near 112.61, setting 112.6119 as the invalidation level. With wave 2 complete, bias shifted to a reversal lower into sub‑waves (i) and (ii), preparing for wave 3 decline.
See chart below
The Outcome: Impulsive Drop 400 Pips In Motion
Following the 112.61 peak, AUDJPY broke down sharply, completing a clean 5‑wave impulse with wave ((iii)) of 3 near 108.50. The decline spanned over 400 pips, with price consolidating around 110.11, still more than 360 pips below the highs. Structurally, AUDJPY is completing a (w)–(x)–(y) double corrective bounce in wave ((iv)) near 110.11. As long as price stays below the invalidation level, another leg down in wave ((v)) is expected to finish wave 3. This should be followed by a corrective bounce in wave 4, then a final swing lower in wave 5 of (C) of ((2)). Afterward, the pair is projected to turn higher, resuming the broader bullish sequence.
See chart below
Key Takeaways for Traders
For traders, rejection below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 112.88 confirmed the corrective structure had ended. Clear invalidation levels, like 112.61, provided disciplined risk management by defining exposure against the higher‑degree trend. Patience during corrective phases—such as the ongoing wave ((iv)) bounce—remains essential, offering clarity before the main trend resumes.
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AUD/JPY has run into firm resistance near 121.00, with its bullish momentum stalling. This follows significant volatility, driven by shifts in global risk sentiment and the appeal of carry trades The pair is now consolidating in a range. Its next move will likely hinge on central bank hawkishness and other big global economic signals. Carry traders might see their positions at greater risk of unwinding during this consolidation. Still, the interest rate difference slightly favors the Australian dollar for now. The AUD/JPY forex pair has seen its upward trend stall this week after a period of gains. The currency pair is facing resistance around the 112 level and has been consolidating between approximately 111.30 and 111.50 today.
This period of consolidation prompts consideration of whether a more significant pullback or a strengthening of the yen is imminent, potentially mirroring the corrective movement seen from late August to mid-September.
Technical Barrier Signals Exhaustion Technical indicators suggest upward momentum might be running out of steam. While not breaking 112 doesn’t immediately signal a market downturn, it does resemble the peak seen in late August.
The pair currently trades below its 100-day moving average, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 49, suggesting neutral momentum.
If it breaks below the short-term support at 111.00, we could see a further drop toward the 110.00 support level, where its 200-day exponential moving average sits.
Will the Yen Repeat Its Earlier Rebound? Market conditions are different now. That earlier decline, which started after September 4, happened as risk appetite fell due to the US-Iran conflict and growing speculation about the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening its monetary policy.
Since then, the BoJ has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. Still, this wasn’t a unanimous decision, with two board members dissenting in a 7-2 vote.
Market participants see about a 30% chance of another rate hike to 1.50% in October. This suggests the yen might get less policy support than it did during its last rebound.
The AUD/JPY pair has been trading in a multi-week range lately. It doesn’t look like it has much room to move higher without a big push, perhaps from a major shift in market risk sentiment or surprising news from central banks.
What This Means for Carry Traders Carry traders have often found the AUD/JPY appealing due to the interest rate gap between Australia and Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s higher policy rates, particularly compared to the BoJ’s slower path to normalization, typically helped those who bought Australian dollars by borrowing yen.
Today’s price action near resistance levels reminds us of the risks in carry strategies. If momentum drops or markets get more volatile, positions can unwind. That’s especially true if global risk sentiment sours or if the BoJ hints at tightening money faster.
Carry traders might want to strengthen their risk management, cut back on leverage, or take some profits while the market consolidates.
This week’s pause in upward momentum doesn’t necessarily mean a big trend reversal is coming. But it does highlight why traders, especially those involved in trend following and carry trades, should be careful.
Has AUD/JPY reversed its recent upward trend?
After gaining last week, AUD/JPY stalled near 112 resistance this week. Its momentum has slowed, but to call it a reversal, we’d need to see a clear break of key support levels.
Could the Japanese yen rebound as it did earlier?
Yes, a yen rebound, much like what we observed between late August and mid-September is possible if support levels don’t hold
What does the stall signal for carry traders?
This stall highlights a growing risk of positions unwinding, meaning carry traders should consider tighter risk controls. Less momentum can really pressure leveraged long AUD positions against the yen.
AUD/JPY během asijské seance vzrostl o více než 1 % po očekávaném zvýšení sazeb japonské centrální banky na 1,25 %. Pár dál podporuje široký úrokový diferenciál vůči australské úrokové sazbě 4,35 %.
The AUD/JPY pair advanced over 1% after the BOJ’s expected rate hike to 1.25%, as dissenters softened the signal while Australia’s 4.35% cash rate preserved a wide, supportive yield differential Near-term outlook for AUD/JPY remains constructive, supported by the persistent interest-rate gap and rising expectations of further RBA tightening Solid demand for high-yielding currencies and broader global market stability continue to support the Australian dollar, encouraging investors to utilize dip-buying carry trade strategies. The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, reaching its highest point since 1995. Board members voted 7-2 on the decision, with two dissenting votes coming from appointees of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
While central bank policy tightening typically strengthens a country’s currency, the Australian dollar actually gained on the yen. AUD/JPY rose over 1% during the Asian trading session, now trading near 112. That might seem strange initially, but it makes sense considering how the market is acting.
Why AUD/JPY Moved Higher The AUD/JPY pair moved higher mainly because the market had already factored in the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. After the announcement, the yen actually weakened. Investors appeared more concerned with the absence of aggressive forward guidance than with the rate increase itself.
Many traders had opened short positions in AUD/JPY ahead of the meeting. The announcement then triggered an immediate unwinding of these trades, as they closed out their yen shorts without clearer signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda.
What’s more, a substantial interest rate gap still favors the Australian dollar. Even with the BoJ’s rate hike to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate remains much higher at 4.35%.
This significant difference supports the AUD/JPY carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding Australian assets.
Outlook for AUD/JPY Favours the Bulls AUD/JPY appears poised for an upward trend in the short term. As long as that interest rate gap remains wide and the RBA stays hawkish, funds will likely continue moving toward the Australian dollar.
The recent price increase and improved technical momentum suggest the pair might test nearby resistance levels, assuming global risk appetite holds steady.
The BOJ’s cautious approach to normalizing policy, alongside Japan’s still-low interest rates compared to other countries, makes it tough for the yen to sustain a recovery against higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.
For AUD/JPY to really strengthen, we’d need ongoing signs of stubborn Australian inflation to keep the RBA’s policy tight. Stable global growth, which would boost commodity demand, would also help. If those conditions align, the pair might gradually appreciate over the next few sessions.
Traders will likely keep buying AUD/JPY dips to profit from yield differences, unless the BoJ signals a series of quick rate hikes. So, the pair looks set to stay bullish and trade within its recent high ranges.
Potential Disruptors to the Momentum Still, a few things could change this path. If BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda sounds more assertive in upcoming statements, or if there are clearer signs of faster rate hikes ahead, that would probably boost the yen and push AUD/JPY down.
Also, a big drop in global risk appetite usually sends investors to the yen as a safe haven, which would hurt the Australian dollar. A slump in key Australian commodity prices, like iron ore, or clear signs of a domestic economic slowdown that makes the RBA pause its tightening could also cut into that yield advantage.
Any unexpected narrowing of the interest rate differential, say if Japan tightens monetary policy more aggressively or Australia shifts its policy sooner, would undermine the carry trade that supports the pair.
Why did AUD/JPY rise after both central banks hiked rates?
The Bank of Japan’s rate hike was widely anticipated and didn’t seem hawkish enough, especially given the split vote. Australia, in contrast, has kept its cash rate much higher, creating a wide yield gap that continues to favor the Australian dollar.
How large is the interest-rate gap between Australia and Japan now?
Australia’s cash rate is still 4.35%, while Japan’s new policy rate sits at 1.25%. This creates an interest rate difference of more than three percentage points, which encourages carry trades.
What role did risk sentiment play in driving the Australian dollar higher on Friday?
Overall global market optimism, combined with the Fed’s interest rate decisions, increased demand for riskier currencies like the Australian dollar. This came at the expense of traditional safe havens such as the yen.
AUD/JPY klesl na čtyřtýdenní minimum pod 111,00, protože japonský jen sílí kvůli očekávání zvýšení sazeb BoJ. Růst železné rudy nad 100 USD za tunu páru nepomohl.
The AUD/JPY currency pair dipped to a four-week low, even as iron ore prices climbed. This drop largely came from a stronger Japanese yen and a pullback in global carry trades Signals from the BoJ hint at a possible interest rate hike in September, boosting the yen and making currency intervention less likely. Meanwhile, the RBA holds at 4.35%, pointing at stubborn inflation The AUD/JPY's downward slide could extend into September. This depends on the BoJ confirming monetary tightening and China's economic data staying weak The Australian dollar dropped against the Japanese yen this week, which might seem a bit odd. After all, Australia’s main export, iron ore, recently topped US$100 per tonne, reaching its highest intraday price since early July.
Normally, strong commodity prices like that would boost the Aussie dollar. Yet, the AUD/JPY exchange rate has instead fallen to four-week lows, slipping below 111.00. So, what’s going on?
Why Has AUD/JPY Turned Bearish? The AUD/JPY isn’t weakening because Australia’s economy is struggling. Instead, it’s the Japanese yen that’s gaining significant strength. Talk of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates has surged after central bank officials made clear statements, even hinting at possible consecutive rate hikes.
With Japan’s GDP and wage growth picking up, market watchers now expect a 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% at the next BoJ policy meeting. Plus, the Ministry of Finance’s interventions in July and August, which caused a record drop in foreign reserves, also helped the yen rebound from multi-year lows.
As the interest rate gap narrows and Japanese yields climb, carry trades, which once favored the higher-yielding Australian dollar, are unwinding much faster.
What this Means For BoJ and RBA Decisions For the BoJ, a consistently strong yen means less immediate pressure to intervene further in the currency market. This also aligns with their plan for a gradual return to normal policy.
A stronger yen helps manage import costs, letting the central bank focus on domestic inflation trends. Markets have already priced in a September rate hike. Any further increases later this year will probably hinge on new data regarding wages, services inflation, and economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a different set of considerations. Strong commodity prices certainly help the nation’s terms of trade, but a weaker currency against key Asian trading partners could push up imported inflation.
Still, with domestic economic indicators looking stable, the RBA isn’t expected to change its policy cash rate. Their focus remains on controlling inflation, rather than directly managing the currency.
All eyes will be on the RBA’s policy meeting in late September, awaiting any shifts in its economic outlook. Another rate hike remains possible if domestic data stays strong, though markets currently see only a moderate chance of this happening.
Will the Downturn Extend? The AUD/JPY pair will likely continue facing downward pressure in the short term. Should the BoJ confirm an interest rate hike, combined with any signs of weaker activity in China or less demand for iron ore, the pair could drop towards lower support levels around 110.
A stronger yen would also make carry trades less appealing. Conversely, stronger-than-expected Australian economic data or new stimulus from China might help stabilize the Australian dollar.
This downward trend for AUD/JPY appears set to continue through September, primarily driven by central bank policy decisions.
The long-term trajectory will depend on improvements in iron ore markets and the pace at which the BoJ normalizes policy relative to the RBA. Both central banks’ September meetings should offer significant insight into these future directions.
Why is AUD/JPY falling even though iron ore prices are rising?
The yen’s strength is pulling the pair lower. This isn’t about Australian fundamentals. Instead, it’s driven by hawkish Bank of Japan signals, including expectations for a rate hike and the impact of past interventions.
Why has AUD/JPY fallen despite higher iron ore prices?
The Australian dollar saw some temporary support from higher iron ore prices. But market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike, coupled with a stronger yen had more sway.
How might this affect Bank of Japan decisions?
A stronger yen reduces the need for direct currency intervention. It also helps the BoJ pursue steady rate increases, focusing on domestic inflation rather than just defending the currency.
A hot Nonfarm Payrolls report saw traders reprice the potential for a September Fed hike, making this week’s CPI and PPI figures all the more important. Fed funds futures are now back above a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in two weeks, after 162k jobs were added compared with the 53k expected.
We also have a 30-year Treasury auction which may garner more attention than usual, given the bouts of market volatility whenever its yield pushes above 5.3%. The last time it did, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of long-end Treasury buybacks to provide greater liquidity support. The auction will therefore test whether investors are comfortable absorbing long-duration debt around current yields, or whether they demand an even higher premium.
Despite the renewed Fed risk, AUD/USD remains above 72c and within reach of its May high. That leaves US inflation, Treasury yields and broader risk appetite as the main near-term drivers for the Australian dollar.
View related analysis:
AU GDP Unlikely to Derail RBA Hike, AUD/USD Eyes ISM, NFP
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Faces RBA-Fed Rate Tug-of-War
Australian Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD
FX Futures Positioning: Dollar Rebound Meets Diverging Forex Bets | COT Report
Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders
Australia’s slowing GDP seems unlikely to derail bets of another RBA hike, with cash rate futures having fully priced in a 25bp move by November. The 1-year OIS has fully priced in two. So attention will shift to comments from RBA’s Hunter and Hausser on Tuesday to see if any policy clues are dropped. My guess is that they’ll retain a slightly hawkish tone without committing to much more.
Consumer and business confidence seems likely to show evidence of RBA-hike concerns. Beyond that, it seems appetite for risk and the US dollar’s direction via CPI and bond auction results could be the key driver for the Australian dollar this week.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
AUD/USD Correlation Analysis
US dollar sensitivity has snapped back: AUD/USD’s correlation with USDX is -0.92 over 10 days and -0.94 over three days, making USD direction the dominant near-term driver.
The yuan remains the most consistent positive relationship: CNH/USD correlations sit at 0.75–0.84 across 3, 10 and 20-day windows, reinforcing China/yuan sentiment as an important AUD/USD input.
Risk and commodity correlations have surged very recently: three-day correlations with the S&P 500 (0.99), gold (0.95), WTI (0.94) and copper (0.87) suggest AUD/USD is currently trading with a strong risk-on/commodity beta.
Short-term relationships remain fluid: several 20-day correlations are weak despite much stronger 3- and 10-day readings, so traders should favour the relationships currently strengthening rather than rely on longer-term averages.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Futures Positioning: COT Report
It is more of the same story where futures exposure is concerned for the Aussie. Traders have continued to increase their longs and shorts at a gradual pace, effectively keeping net-short exposure near similar levels to the week prior, albeit a touch less bearish.
This suggests traders continued to hedge their bets despite AUD/USD climbing above 72c to a 16-week high. The more reliable signal is therefore price action and rising total open interest, which now sits at a record high. This shows us that demand for Australian dollar exposure from all participants combined is rising alongside AUD/USD prices.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels)
Implied volatility has continued to trend lower while prices have moved higher in recent weeks, while 1-month IV remains above 1-week IV to show a calm confidence in the bullish trend. A small bullish engulfing week also formed, although with the May high nearby, the rally may be maturing to the point that it needs a pause or pullback. The daily chart shows AUD/USD held up well to the strength of NFP on Friday by closing flat, although it formed a doji which shows some hesitation from bulls to push higher immediately.
The AU-US 2-year spread edged lower, though not at an alarming rate. Risk reversals also curled slightly higher last week to show a modest pickup in call demand relative to puts, so options traders are not panicking about a deep pullback.
Overall, AUD/USD still has the potential to rise towards the May high and eventually break above it. How US data lands this week could simply determine whether we see an initial pullback or a direct move towards it first.
Alt: AUD/USD rises as implied volatility falls, with risk reversals and the AU-US 2-year spread supporting a constructive Australian dollar outlook.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Australian Dollar Performance
Australian dollar performance table shows AUD gains across most major crosses, while AUD/JPY underperforms over five and 10 days.
AUD/USD se drží poblíž 0,7165, ale rostoucí šance na zvýšení sazeb RBA i Fedu už tento měsíc tlačí pár pod tlak. Trh navíc počítá se silnými australskými daty a vyššími cenami ropy. Pár se přitom pohybuje jen mírně pod srpnovým maximem 0,7207.
Sell AUD/USD. Higher odds of both RBA and Fed hikes push the market toward tighter USD policy and less room for AUD to rally; strong Aussie data is already “priced,” while the article flags elevated inflation and renewed oil/energy pressure that can keep both central banks hawkish. Technicals also point to a bearish reversal (rising wedge convergence, PPO bearish crossover, RSI rolling over). Target 0.700 support.
Key Risk: A sharp risk-off move that weakens the USD (or a surprise dovish Fed/RBA shift) that drives AUD/USD back above 0.7207.
Brent-linked AUD
Sell AUD exposure via AUD/JPY (or AUD futures). The news ties the hawkish rate repricing to higher oil after US-Iran activity; that supports global growth but also keeps inflation sticky, which tends to keep JPY relatively supported versus high-beta AUD when rates are uncertain. With AUD/USD set up to break lower, AUD/JPY should follow on the same rate-and-risk repricing.
Key Risk: Oil spikes further and triggers a broad commodity/risk rally that lifts AUD/JPY despite the wedge/oscillator bearish setup.
The Australian dollar held firm today, September 3rd, as investors adjusted their RBA and Federal Reserve expectations for the year. The AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.7165, a few points below the August high of 0.7207.
Traders are bracing for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) happening as soon as this month.
Polymarket gives the odds of RBA’s rate hike happening in September rose to 67%. These odds jumped after the US and Iran resumed their kinetic activity, which led to higher oil prices.
Australia has also published strong macro numbers this week. An S&P Global report showed that the services PMI came in at 53.2 in August, higher than the expected 52.9. A PMI reading of 50 and above is usually a sign that a sector is growing. The composite PMI came in at 52.7, also higher than the expected 52.50.
Another report released on Wednesday showed that the Australian economy expanded by 2.1% in the second quarter, higher than the expected 1.8%. It grew by 0.4% in Q2 after growing by 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis.
This growth happened even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) became the most hawkish central banks this year. It has already delivered three rate hikes this year, with officials leaving the door open for more hikes.
A key concern is that Australia’s inflation has remained at an elevated level in the past few months. This trend will likely continue now that the US and Iran have restarted their kinetic activity, leading to higher energy prices. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $95.68, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $91.
The same situation is happening in the US, where odds that the Fed will hike rates this month have jumped to 55% on Polymarket. These odds soared after Kevin Warsh delivered a highly hawkish statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
In it, he hinted that the bank was concerned about the state of inflation, which has remained above the 2% target in the past five years.
Focus now shifts to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report that will provide color on the labor market. Economists expect the data to show that the economy created over 80k jobs in August this year.
AUDUSD chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair may be on the verge of a bearish reversal in the coming days. For one, it has formed a rising wedge pattern whose two lines are about to converge.
Also, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have made a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing downwards.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the AUD/USD pair falls, potentially to the key support of 0.700.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 114.50 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as Japan’s annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Tokyo rose for a third consecutive month in August, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could raise interest rates as early as September.
Hotter inflation data came after BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino delivered hawkish remarks and highlighted growing inflation risks. Most market participants currently expect the Japanese central bank to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting.
On the other hand, upbeat China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data could provide some support to the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July. This figure came in stronger than the 49.7 expected. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI steadied at 49.0 in August, compared to July’s 49.0 figure.
BoJ stance seen remaining hawkish as inflation dynamics evolveAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that the latest inflation dynamics, including the mix of softer non-fresh food prices and firmer services costs, “continue to support the BoJ’s hawkish path,” reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain its tightening bias despite temporary downward pressure from renewed energy subsidies.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a constructive tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price action is pressing into the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, with the upper band acting as immediate overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 63.27 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained buying pressure rather than outright overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial demand is seen at the August 26 low of 113.66. The next contention level is located at the 100-day SMA at 113.25, followed by the the Bollinger middle band at 113.00.
On the topside, any follow-though buying above the August 26 high of 114.96 would open the door for the Bollinger upper band at 115.20. The next hurdle to watch is the 116.00 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
TL;DR: Japan’s data is strengthening and Australia’s is weakening, yet AUD/JPY keeps rising — because the cross is trading on the global yield backdrop and carry differential, not on either country’s local fundamentals.
Domestic Data Point Clearly Lower for AUD/JPY AUD/JPY has rebounded strongly even though this week’s data from both sides of the cross argue for the opposite move. Japan delivered firmer inflation and stronger business activity. Australia produced a weak jobs report and softer PMIs. On domestic fundamentals alone, that combination should favor the Yen over the Aussie.
Japan’s July core CPI rose from 1.6% to 1.8% y/y, while core-core CPI accelerated from 1.7% to 1.9% — a broadening that ActionForex covered in detail here, noting firmer services inflation and renewed energy pressure ahead of the BoJ’s September meeting. August PMIs strengthened as well: PMI Manufacturing rose from 54.5 to 55.1, while PMI Services climbed from 51.2 to 52.3 — part of a broader acceleration where overseas demand posted its strongest growth in more than eight-and-a-half years, led by semiconductor and AI-related industries. Those readings reinforce expectations the BoJ could raise rates again at its September meeting.
Australia moved in the opposite direction. Employment fell -15.8K in July, against expectations for an increase, while unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.5%. August PMI Composite Output then eased from 53.2 to 52.5, while PMI Services Business Activity fell from 53.6 to 52.9. PMI Manufacturing Output slipped from 50.3 to 49.7, moving back into contraction, even as manufacturing orders improved and cost pressures accelerated.
Global Yields Are Overriding Local Fundamentals That AUD/JPY is rising anyway is the more important signal. The cross is currently trading less on Australian and Japanese data than on the global yield backdrop.
The Yen briefly benefited after the US Treasury’s August 19 buyback announcement drove long-dated US yields sharply lower. That compressed yield differentials globally and temporarily reduced pressure on low-yield funding currencies. But the move didn’t last — US yields rebounded quickly on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning toward 4.70% and the 30-year yield moving back above 5.20%. Other major sovereign yields also rose. As carry conditions improved again, the Yen returned to underperformance.
That mechanism matters more for AUD/JPY than the latest local data. When global yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a low-yielding currency such as the Yen increases. Carry demand then tends to favor currencies offering substantially higher policy rates, including the Aussie.
BoJ Hike Bets Are Rising, But the Carry Gap Is Still Wide Japan’s stronger CPI and PMI data still matter because they reinforce September BoJ hike expectations. But even another 25bp increase wouldn’t transform the relative-rate picture.
The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35%, compared with the BoJ policy rate at 1.00% — a gap of roughly 335bp. A BoJ hike to 1.25% would narrow it to around 310bp, still a substantial spread.
That helps explain why the Yen can weaken even as BoJ normalization expectations strengthen. Markets may be becoming more confident that Japan will hike, but the expected adjustment is still small relative to the existing carry advantage. Australia’s softer data could eventually narrow that gap from the other side if markets become convinced the RBA’s tightening bias won’t survive. But this week’s releases haven’t been enough to overpower the global yield move.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/JPY Technically, the current rebound supports the view that the correction from 114.91 completed with three waves down to 109.25. That decline held above 108.77, the bottom of wave four of a lesser degree. Support from the 55-day EMA also strengthens the bullish interpretation.
The near-term outlook stays bullish while 112.21 support holds. The next target is the 114.65–114.91 resistance zone.
A decisive break of 114.91 would be much more important. It would confirm resumption of the larger uptrend from 86.03, the 2025 low. The next upside target would then be the 38.2% projection of 86.03 to 114.91 from 109.25, at 120.28, putting the psychological 120 level directly into focus.
A move below 112.21 would delay the bullish case and suggest the correction from 114.91 is still unfolding, with another near-term decline possible before the broader uptrend resumes.
AUD/JPY Is Sending a Global, Not Domestic, Signal The key takeaway isn’t that Australian fundamentals suddenly improved or that Japanese data failed to matter. It’s that both local stories are being overwhelmed by a larger market force. Japan is getting stronger. Australia is getting softer. Yet AUD/JPY is rising because global yields have reasserted the carry advantage over the Yen.
That makes the next move in US and global bond yields more important for this cross than another small change in local data. As long as carry pressure stays elevated and 112.21 holds, AUD/JPY can keep pressing toward 114.91 despite a domestic macro backdrop that, on paper, argues for the opposite.
Key Takeaways Japan’s core-core CPI accelerated to 1.9% and PMIs strengthened broadly, while Australia’s jobs report contracted and PMIs softened — a combination that should favor Yen, not Aussie. AUD/JPY’s rise despite this divergence signals the cross is trading on global yields and carry conditions, not local fundamentals, right now. The RBA-BoJ rate gap stands at roughly 335bp; even a September BoJ hike to 1.25% would only narrow it to around 310bp, preserving a substantial carry advantage for AUD. US yields briefly fell on the Treasury buyback announcement but rebounded quickly, restoring carry pressure on the Yen within days. AUD/JPY holds a bullish bias above 112.21 support, targeting 114.65-114.91; a break above 114.91 would open a path toward 120.28.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The AUD/JPY has pulled back after a strong uptrend, with the momentum attributed to short-term profit-taking. However, the pair’s broader uptrend remains intact Joint interventions have not helped the yen much and stubborn inflation is a significant concern for Japan’s policymakers Despite the recent dip, the wide interest rate gap between the RBA and BoJ continues to favour carry trade in the long-term The AUD/JPY currency pair climbed for over ten straight days from its early August low around 110.14. It started falling on Tuesday, though, and has kept dropping into today’s trading session.
Earlier this month, the pair rose from roughly 110-111 to a high near 113.27-113.65. It’s since dropped, however, to about 112.64-112.72. This move signals a break in the prior upward trend.
So, is this the start of a bigger downtrend? What’s making the yen stronger? And what does it mean for carry traders?
Is Momentum Shifting Lower? Recent price movements point to a short-term pause, not a full trend reversal. The pair still trades above important long-term moving averages across various analyses, and the overall trend since the August lows still suggests a recovery.
However, technical indicators on medium-term charts, however, look more cautious. Some suggest short-term selling pressure has built up after the rapid ascent.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts has moved back toward the 50-52 range. This doesn’t automatically signal a bearish divergence. Instead, it likely shows the pair correcting from overbought conditions after a long period of gains
Reuters reports the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is getting ready to raise interest rates as early as its September 17-18 meeting. Policymakers might even speed up the pace of hikes beyond the current rate of about twice a year.
Policymakers are reportedly growing more concerned about ongoing inflation, strong global demand driven by AI, and the yen’s persistent weakness, even after joint currency interventions. Bank of America has even raised its year-end forecast for the yen, noting intervention needs faster rate hikes to be truly effective.
Implications for Carry Traders The AUD/JPY is among the most popular currency pairs in carry trade. Traders usually borrow Japanese yen, with its low interest rates, to buy the Australian dollar, which offers higher returns. This rate difference made the pair appealing over the last year. But when the exchange rate falls, that advantage shrinks, and traders often adjust their positions.
If you’re already holding long-carry positions, the recent drop means your investments are worth less on paper. It also raises the risk of further selling if prices keep falling. If the carry trade loses its appeal, some investors might trim their holdings or look to hedge more.
On the other hand, if the pair stabilizes or starts to climb, the carry trade strategy will regain its appeal. This is especially true if Australian economic data stays strong and the Bank of Japan slowly tightens its monetary policy. When these shifts happen, the pair can become more volatile as traders adjust their leveraged positions.
Has AUD/JPY momentum clearly turned bearish?
It is not yet confirmed. The current decline follows a strong multi-session rally and looks like consolidation before a potential break of key support.
What is driving the yen’s recent strength?
Market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are up, there are lingering effects from late-July intervention, and policy outlooks differ when compared to Australia.
How does this affect carry trades?
A falling AUD/JPY cuts the profit from borrowing yen to hold Australian dollars. This can prompt leveraged traders to reduce their positions.
AUD/JPY po sedmi růstových seancích dnes klesl asi o 0,2 % na 112,37 z předchozího závěru 112,60, protože jen posílil kvůli obavám z intervence a očekávání vyšších sazeb BoJ.
AUD/JPY rose for seven straight sessions but slipped about 0.2% today as the yen strengthened on intervention fears and BoJ hike expectations Japan and the US conducted a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention in early August, the first such joint action since 2011 The wide Australia-Japan interest-rate gap still underpins the carry trade. However, there is a rising likelihood of a near-term volatility from policy signals The Australian dollar’s recent upward trend against the Japanese yen has been a significant topic in foreign exchange markets. A seven-session winning streak is a notable achievement for any currency pair, particularly one often viewed as an indicator of market risk sentiment.
However, this streak ended today. The AUD/JPY pair saw a decline of approximately 0.2% during New York trading, settling around 112.37 compared to a previous close of 112.60. This shift raises questions about the underlying causes and whether this marks a more substantial change or a temporary pullback.
Yen Intervention Risk Hasn’t Gone Away The most important piece of context here is what happened just two weeks ago. Japan and the United States confirmed a rare, coordinated yen-buying intervention, aiming to stop the currency’s slide to 40-year lows. Tokyo signaled it’s ready to act again if needed.
This wasn’t just any intervention. It was the first joint effort since 2011, and the market can’t simply ignore it. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced that message, stating Washington “won’t hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.” He also pushed for more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. That combination creates a persistent headwind for anyone holding long AUD/JPY positions.
The yen also strengthened after traders looked at the Bank of Japan’s recent Summary of Opinions. BoJ members pointed out growing risks of domestic inflation, leading some to think that Japanese officials might raise interest rates again, possibly in September.
What Does This Mean for the Carry Trade? AUD/JPY has long been a favourite among carry traders. AUD/JPY has long been a favorite among carry traders. This strategy works best when Australian rates stay high (or rise) and the yen remains weak and stable. Today’s price action suggests both pillars are wobbling a bit.
It looks like the period of easy gains during the rally might be turning into a trading range. As the BoJ moves closer to normalizing its policies and yields on long-term Japanese government bonds rise, the net return from the interest rate difference becomes less protected from sudden currency dips.
How to Position From Here? None of this necessarily signals the rally is over. Seven consecutive days of gains represent a strong upward move, and a single 0.2% dip is within the normal range for profit-taking. However, traders should now consider the risk of intervention as a consistent element for this currency pair, rather than an isolated event.
This suggests adopting tighter stop-losses and smaller position sizes for any new long entries, rather than aggressively pursuing new highs. Longer-term investors who can tolerate market fluctuations may still find the interest rate differential appealing. It is advisable to maintain strict stop-losses around upcoming speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia officials and releases of Japanese inflation data to mitigate potential volatility.
Why did AUD/JPY fall about 0.2% today after seven session gains?
The Japanese yen got a slight lift today. New intervention warnings surfaced, and people are increasingly expecting a Bank of Japan rate hike this September.
What still supports the AUD/JPY carry trade?
Australia’s cash rate is higher than Japan’s policy rate, creating a big interest-rate difference. This still makes holding the Australian dollar attractive.
How significant is the recent US-Japan intervention?
That coordinated action in late July did give the yen a short-term boost, but its impact has mostly faded. The carry trade now looks attractive once more.
AUD/JPY od konce července prudce oslabil kvůli rozplétání carry trade financovaného jenem a slabším cenám komodit. Včerejší odraz o více než 1 % dnes neudržel.
The AUD/JPY forex pair has declined sharply since late July and for a carry trade favourite, investors are weighing how to position themselves The Australian dollar has seen a significant depreciation against the Japanese yen since late July. The AUD/JPY exchange rate declined from approximately 114.50 to lows between 109 and 110. While a rebound of over 1% yesterday pushed the pair above 111, it has since eased again.
These movements are influenced by differing central bank policies, the potential for intervention, and evolving market expectations for both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
What Drove AUD/JPY Sell-off and Rebound? The sharp decrease in AUD/JPY during late July primarily resulted from a global unwinding of yen-funded carry trades. Previously, market participants borrowed yen at low interest rates to invest in currencies offering higher yields, such as the Australian dollar. However, market changes necessitated a rapid liquidation of these leveraged positions, leading to substantial buying of the yen across major currency pairs.
A notable factor emerged on July 30 when a rapid appreciation of the yen against major currencies led to widespread market speculation of official intervention by Japanese authorities. The AUD/JPY pair dropped more than 1.3% on that day and continued its downward trend in the following sessions, reaching its lowest point in several weeks.
Although Tokyo has not officially confirmed intervention, the magnitude of the currency move, combined with prior warnings regarding excessive yen weakness, provided strong indications to traders.
Yesterday’s temporary 1.0% rebound was sparked by a short-term resurgence in global equity markets and a temporary stabilization in risk appetite.
But the pair couldn’t hold onto those gains during today’s trading, which showed how vulnerable it still is. Softer commodity prices, particularly crude oil and industrial metals, have kept the growth-sensitive Aussie dollar struggling.
Near-Term Momentum and Outlook Yesterday’s rebound proved the pair can still draw buyers when the yen eases up or broader risk appetite improves. But since it couldn’t hold onto those gains today, it seems the risk of intervention is still capping any rise.
Traders are now looking ahead to the RBA’s next decision and any further signals from the BoJ, like the summary of opinions and upcoming Japanese inflation data.
In the near term, AUD/JPY might trade in a wider range. Support could hold near recent lows of 109-110, with resistance possibly around 112-113. For a lasting recovery, we’d need clearer signs that Japanese authorities are stepping back, and that Australian data actually back up the current yield advantage.
On the other hand, more yen strength or a dovish shift in RBA expectations could extend the decline.
Over the medium term, the outlook depends on how quickly policies adjust. If the BoJ speeds up normalization while the RBA remains on hold, the yield gap would narrow and favor the yen.
If Australian inflation proves more persistent and Japanese tightening remains gradual, carry demand could reassert itself and lift the pair once intervention fears calm down.
What caused the AUD/JPY to drop sharply at the end of July?
It fell fast because yen-funded carry trades were quickly unwound, and global commodity prices cooled down.
How are the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan affecting the AUD/JPY right now?
The RBA has stopped raising rates, and the Bank of Japan is starting to normalize its policies. This means the difference in interest rates between Australia and Japan is getting smaller.
Why did the AUD/JPY suddenly jump 1% yesterday?
Yesterday’s quick rise happened because global stock markets temporarily bounced back, and investors felt a bit more willing to take risks for a short while.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 110.70, snapping the six-day losing streak, during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan, which could provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
"The view that FX intervention cannot have a lasting impact and merely alters short-term market flows seems right in many cases. However, depending on the circumstances and broader context, intervention can exert a significant influence on the market and trigger an inflection,” said Bank of America analyst Shusuke Yamada.
Japan and US step in to stabilise Yen after historic slideStrategists at BNY note that Japan’s finance ministry and the US Treasury have “intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen” after the currency weakened to its lowest level against the Dollar since 1986. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is cited as saying the joint action was aimed at “countering excessive volatility and disorderly movements in recent months,” underscoring that Tokyo “would not hesitate to carry out further joint intervention if needed.” BNY concludes that the authorities have made it clear they “remain ready to defend the currency” should renewed pressure on JPY emerge.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY extends a corrective move below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-day middle band, which form a dense overhead supply zone. The pair is now drifting toward the lower Bollinger band support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.33 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that bearish momentum remains in control but could be nearing exhaustion.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the lower Bollinger band near 110.40, where a pause or bounce could emerge if sellers take profits. The next contention level to watch is the 110.00 psychological level, followed by the August 3 low of 109.24.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.85, followed by the Bollinger Bands middle band at 113.00; a daily close above these clustered barriers would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward the upper Bollinger band near 115.62.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
AUD/JPY prorazil nad 113,00 hlavně kvůli slabosti jenu, ne kvůli výrazné síle australského dolaru. Podporují ho sázky na další zvýšení sazeb RBA a pevné ceny komodit. Kurz se přitom přiblížil 113,39.
The AUD/JPY pair broke past the 113.00 resistance level following previous quiet six session bounds between 111.95 and 112.81 Yen weakness was fueled by interest rate differences and market confusion over speculation that Japan's massive pension fund might relocate foreign assets back home The Aussie dollar found solid fundamental support as global commodity prices remained firm despite the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East After six sessions trading within a tight range of 111.95 to 112.81, the AUD/JPY pair moved decisively higher on Tuesday. It surpassed the 113.00 psychological level and continued its ascent today, nearing 113.39. So, what changed?
Speculation Over the World’s Largest Pension Fund Triggers Yen Selloff Headlines regarding Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) appear to be the primary driver behind the yen’s recent decline. Reports suggest the government is considering encouraging the massive pension fund to increase its investments in domestic assets to support local markets and the yen. While this sounds like it should strengthen the Japanese currency, the market reacted with immediate skepticism.
This skepticism stems from past attempts by the Japanese finance ministry to support the yen, which proved costly and ineffective. As CNBC reported, Tokyo’s finance ministry burned through roughly $73 billion defending the yen back in April and May, only to watch it slide right back toward the levels it started from.
Analysts suggest the yen’s weakness is rooted in structural issues. These include Japan’s growing public debt, a government focused on reflation, and inflation expectations that are not aligning with typical interest rate differentials.
On the Aussie side, the Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked its cash rate three times this year to 4.35%. Despite holding rates steady in June, RBA meeting minutes indicated ongoing concerns about inflation exceeding the target, with core inflation accelerating even as headline inflation eased.
A Finder survey of more than 40 economists shows 55% of them expect at least one more rate hike this year, likely in August. This policy stance supports Australian yields and the carry appeal of the Australian dollar.
Commodity prices and China’s economic performance also play a significant role. Australia, as a major exporter of iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas, benefits from resilient demand from China. Positive economic indicators from Beijing have bolstered risk sentiment and AUD strength.
Market Outlook Signals Bullish Bias with Caution This breakout suggests a constructive near-term outlook for AUD/JPY, potentially targeting higher levels if policy divergence persists and global risk conditions remain favorable.
For those considering trading this breakout, entering at current levels around 113.40 presents some short-term risk. A sustained move above 113.58 on a daily closing basis would be the next key level to watch, potentially opening the way toward 113.90 and the 52-week high zone around 114.90.
Below the surface, though, this rally is fragile. A significant risk to long positions is the potential for direct market intervention by the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance to support the yen. Such action could lead to a rapid and substantial decline in the AUD/JPY pair.
Why did AUD/JPY break above 113.00 this week?
The breakout was caused by a combination of RBA rate-hike expectations supporting the Aussie and persistent yen weakness tied to Japan’s debt concerns and ineffective currency intervention.
Is the Australian dollar actually getting stronger?
The Australian dollar’s appreciation appears to be more a reflection of yen weakness than a substantial increase in the Australian dollar’s strength, although RBA policy has contributed positively.
How does China’s economy influence Australian dollar strength?
Stronger Chinese demand for commodities like iron ore and coal increases Australia’s export revenues, improving its terms of trade and supporting the AUD.
Japonský jen posílil, protože obchodníci uzavírají rekordní short pozice před americkou inflací CPI. USD/JPY testuje rezistenci pod 163, zatímco riziko intervence zůstává.
Japanese yen volatility has returned as traders unwind record short positions ahead of US CPI. With USD/JPY testing major resistance below 163 and intervention risks lingering, futures positioning suggests gains may become harder to come by. Here are the key USD/JPY and AUD/JPY trade setups to watch.
View related analysis:
Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Gold Price Outlook: Bulls Weigh the Odds of Another Bounce Above $4,000 How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment Japanese Yen Short Covering Puts USD/JPY at a Critical Juncture Japanese Yen Volatility Returns Ahead of US CPI Volatility has perked up for the Japanese yen over the past few weeks, and it has cut both ways. A market-led selloff heading into the 2 July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report saw USD/JPY fall by as much as 200 pips before recouping those losses over the following four days. On Friday, USD/JPY fell more than 100 pips on reports that Japan's largest pension fund had been instructed to purchase domestic assets.
This is quite a significant development because it suggests Japan is exploring alternative ways of supporting the yen besides traditional currency intervention. It could prove a shrewd approach, allowing policymakers to avoid swimming against the tide while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and US economic data continues to outperform.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Yen Gains May Be Harder to Come By I think the bigger takeaway is that easy gains on USD/JPY may be harder to come by, but that is not the same as saying the pair cannot move higher. The combination of traders remaining wary of potential intervention, alongside efforts to support the yen without directly intervening, could allow USD/JPY to grind higher while keeping volatility elevated. Put another way, the broader uptrend may remain intact, but traders should expect more frequent bouts of two-way price action.
With USD/JPY testing resistance ahead of today's US inflation report, traders are on high alert for either a bullish breakout or a sharp reversal. Markets continue to price in a hawkish Fed, so it may not take much of a downside CPI surprise to shake the market from these elevated levels, particularly as Japanese yen bears continue to capitulate in the futures market.
Japanese Yen Futures Positioning: USD/JPY COT Report I have been warning for several weeks about the potential sentiment extreme in Japanese yen futures. Gross short positions had climbed to record highs among both asset managers and large speculators, while long positions also edged higher despite the yen's persistent downtrend (USD/JPY uptrend). That pushed net-short exposure close to two-year highs for both groups of traders.
However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a clear reduction in bearish positioning last week. Gross short exposure was cut by a combined 48.8k contracts across both trader groups, falling 11.6% among large speculators and 12.7% among asset managers. Long positions increased only marginally, making this a story of short covering rather than fresh bullish conviction.
The conditions are not yet in place for a sustained yen rally, but if bearish traders continue heading for the exit, gains on USD/JPY may become harder to come by than they have been over recent months.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The 1-hour chart shows a decent uptrend from Monday's low. Prices are testing the weekly R1 pivot point while remaining above their daily, weekly and monthly VWAPs. We could see an early breakout attempt during today's session towards the cycle highs, although traders should note the July VPOC at 162.69, which aligns with last week's high and could provide resistance.
Bulls may also want to tread carefully around the cycle highs and take note of the pre-NFP price action, as it could trigger another pre-emptive pullback. Even so, several support levels are clustered around 162, including the 2024 high, the weekly pivot point and Monday's VPOC.
It could then come down to the US inflation report to determine whether we see a meaningful breakout or a deeper pullback. While a hot CPI report could tempt bulls to push above 163, I suspect the bigger move may come from a softer-than-expected print. That could see USD/JPY rotate lower within its recent choppy range between 160 and 162.50.
Ultimately, I suspect CPI will need to surprise decisively to the upside for any breakout above 163 to prove sustainable.
Source: ICE, TradingView
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AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Compared with USD/JPY, volatility remains lower on AUD/JPY. Yet it has caught my attention because it presents several clusters of support and resistance that could provide attractive trading setups. It also partially removes some of the event risk associated with the US inflation report.
The daily chart shows prices oscillating between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. Momentum has turned slightly lower from last week's high and monthly pivot point, while Monday's shooting star signals a failed attempt to retest Friday's doji high.
Even if prices spike above last week's high, the June VPOC sits at 113.09 and could provide resistance, followed by the May VPOC at 113.48. While 112 may offer initial support, a break below that level brings the 100-day EMA into focus, near the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervention low.
