A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AST SpaceMobile due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
ASTS Reports Wider-Than-Expected Q2 Loss Despite Revenue Growth
AST SpaceMobile reported lackluster second-quarter 2026 results, with both top and bottom lines missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The company reported strong year-over-year revenue growth, driven by gateway deliveries and U.S. government contracts. It continued to expand satellite production and partnerships and advance its network deployment. However, higher operating and launch costs continued to weigh on its bottom line.
Net Income
On a GAAP basis, the company recorded a net loss of $230.9 million or a loss of 77 cents per share compared with a net loss of $99.4 million or a loss of 41 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Despite healthy top-line growth, higher total operating expenses pressured the bottom line.
Excluding non-recurring items, non-GAAP net loss for the reported quarter was 44 cents per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents.
Revenues
Quarterly revenues surged to $31.5 million from $1.16 million in the year-ago quarter, driven by solid growth in both Product and Service segments. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.1 million.
In the second quarter, Product revenues increased to $24.4 million from $0.05 million, primarily driven by the delivery of commercial gateway equipment to Mobile Network Operator partners. Services revenues also increased to $7.09 million from $1.11 million in the prior-year quarter, reflecting increased revenue recognized from U.S. government contracts and the achievement of related contractual milestones.
Other Details
In the June quarter, total operating expenses rose to $329.1 million from $74 million in the year-ago quarter. This was due to increased general and administrative costs and engineering services expenses. Adjusted operating expenses for the second quarter were $119.1 million.
Cash Flow & Liquidity
During the first six months of 2026, the company utilized $145.2 million of cash for operating activities compared with a cash utilization of $72 million in the year-ago period. As of June 30, 2026, it had $2.29 billion in cash and cash equivalents with $2.96 billion in long-term debt.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -54.51% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresAt this time, AST SpaceMobile has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, AST SpaceMobile has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry PlayerAST SpaceMobile belongs to the Zacks Wireless Equipment industry. Another stock from the same industry, InterDigital (IDCC - Free Report) , has gained 0.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.
InterDigital reported revenues of $260.17 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -13.4%. EPS of $4.62 for the same period compares with $6.52 a year ago.
For the current quarter, InterDigital is expected to post earnings of $2.04 per share, indicating a change of -20% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
InterDigital has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile fell 24.4% in six months, lagging its industry, sector, S&P 500 and key rivals.ASTS needs about 45-60 BlueBird satellites for continuous service in the U.S., Europe and Japan.ASTS had pro forma liquidity above $3.7B, enough to support more than 100 BlueBird satellites. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS - Free Report) has declined 24.4% in six months compared with the wireless equipment industry’s decline of 3.1%. The stock has underperformed the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500’s growth during this period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It has underperformed its competitors, such as Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX - Free Report) and Globalstar (GSAT - Free Report) . SpaceX has returned 13.7% while Globalstar has surged 39.9% during this period.
Key Headwinds Could Temper AST SpaceMobile’s Growth OutlookAST SpaceMobile's technology has demonstrated impressive capabilities in the space-based connectivity space. However, commercialization depends on successful deployment of a large number of satellites on schedule. The biggest risk for investors is execution at constellation scale.
The company estimates that continuous service across key markets such as the U.S., Europe and Japan requires roughly 45-60 BlueBird satellites. It has revealed that shipment timing for Block 2 satellites is dependent on timely assembly and testing as well as regulatory approvals. Several of these factors aren’t in control of the company.
Its value chain incorporates satellite manufacturing, rocket building, launch operations and ground stations. ASTS relies on third-party launch providers, and any failure, delay, or underperformance could disrupt satellite deployment and push out commercialization timelines. ASTS’ global expansion initiatives remain dependent on obtaining region-specific approvals. The company is conducting network integration and testing with partners across Europe, Canada, Japan and Saudi Arabia. But the commercial launch across these regions depends on final regulatory authorizations.
The mobile satellite services market is becoming highly competitive. The company faces competition from players such as SpaceX and Globalstar that are advancing LEO (Low Earth Orbit) based connectivity solutions.
The enormous amount of capital required before the business reaches mature commercial scale is another risk. Capital expenditure surged to approximately $610 million in the second quarter compared with $257 million in the first quarter. Despite growing revenues from government contracts and commercial gateway deliveries, successful commercialization of its network, regulatory approvals and successful execution remain key to generating meaningful returns from such high capital investments.
Growth Catalysts That Could Support ASTS’ ProspectsAST SpaceMobile has built a broad mobile-operator ecosystem. The company is collaborating with more than 60 MNO partners collectively representing more than 3 billion subscribers. Network integration and testing are already progressing with major operators across Europe, Canada, Japan and other regions. This partner-led approach could significantly reduce customer-acquisition barriers following commercial launch. This will allow ASTS to leverage the existing subscriber relationships and infrastructure of its carrier partners.
AST SpaceMobile has demonstrated nearly 100 Mbps of broadband connectivity using its Block 1 satellite. The company expects its Block 2 satellites to approach peak data rates of 200 Mbps. Its proprietary ASIC is designed to support up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite. If the company maintains such performance as the constellation scales, the technology will be able to support a wide range of applications across government and private sectors.
ASTS’ cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled approximately $2.7 billion as of June 30. The July convertible-note transaction raised another $1.15 billion of gross proceeds, taking pro forma liquidity above $3.7 billion. Management stated that this capital position can support the build-out and launch of more than 100 BlueBird satellites while funding additional growth initiatives.
Estimate Revision Trend of ASTSEarnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have decreased over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Valuation Metric of ASTSFrom a valuation standpoint, ASTS is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry. AST SpaceMobile trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 49.37, well above the industry average of 4.87. Such a premium leaves little room for execution set backs.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NoteGrowing partnerships with leading mobile network operators worldwide and growing prowess in space-based broadband technology are positive factors. A massive $1.3 billion revenue backlog underscores growing interest in the product. Successful execution of the satellite deployment roadmap and transition from government revenues to recurring commercial service revenue can drive ASTS into a strong growth phase. However, if the pace of commercialization fails to keep up with AST SpaceMobile's substantial capital requirements, it could impact ASTS growth prospects. Obtaining regulatory approvals and growing competition remain concerns. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), ASTS currently presents a balanced risk-reward profile, suggesting that new investors may want to exercise caution before taking a position. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
On September 08, 2026, AST SpaceMobile Inc ASTS shares rose 6.1% to a current price of $66.12, reflecting a notable increase amidst a 52-week trading range of $36.08 to $133.86. This price movement comes against a backdrop of mixed performance, with the stock down 9.0% year-to-date and a 1-month decline of 8.1%.
GF Value™ verdict: Current price of $66.12 vs GF Value™ of $537.22 (87.7% undervalued)GF Score™: 44/100 (Average)Most notable signal: Insider activity has shown significant selling, with a net of $449.4M in sales over the past 12 monthsIs ASTS Overvalued or Undervalued?The assessment of AST SpaceMobile Inc's valuation must consider its unique financial situation, particularly its current unprofitability and cash-flow negativity. Currently, the GF Value™ is estimated at $537.22, which suggests an 87.7% upside based on the current trading price of $66.12. However, it's important to note that GF Value™ is derived from historical trading multiples and projected future performance, which may not be reliable for a company like ASTS that is not yet generating profits. This creates a margin of safety that is difficult to quantify and suggests caution for potential investors.
The label of "Possible Value Trap" assigned by GF Valuation indicates that while the stock appears undervalued based on the intrinsic value estimate, the risk of continued underperformance exists due to its unprofitable status. Investors should be wary of assuming that the current price represents a straightforward opportunity without considering the underlying risks of cash flow negativity.
How Does ASTS's Valuation Compare to Its History?MetricCurrentHistoricalP/E (TTM)N/A~64.7x (5-year median)Due to ASTS's unprofitability, a traditional P/E ratio is not applicable, and thus we cannot directly compare it to its historical valuation. However, the lack of earnings makes it clear that the earnings-based valuation method does not apply here. This aligns with the GF Value™ verdict, suggesting caution in relying on historical earnings metrics to guide investment decisions.
What Does ASTS's GF Score™ Tell Us?The GF Score™ is a composite score that evaluates a company's financial strength, profitability, growth prospects, valuation, and momentum, providing investors insight into the overall health and attractiveness of a stock. ASTS's GF Score™ of 44/100 indicates an average rating overall, with notable weaknesses in profitability and growth.
MetricRatingGF Score™44Financial Strength4/10Profitability1/10Growth0/10Valuation2/10Momentum8/10The scores reveal that ASTS has considerable challenges in profitability and growth, given its low scores of 1 and 0, respectively. However, its momentum score of 8/10 indicates recent positive price performance, which could attract short-term speculative interest. The weak financial strength rating emphasizes the risks involved in investing in ASTS at this time.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with ASTS?Currently, six gurus hold shares of AST SpaceMobile Inc, with five adding to their positions and two trimming their holdings in recent quarters. This suggests a cautious optimism among institutional investors despite the company's financial challenges.
The insider activity presents a more concerning picture, with insiders buying $0.8M worth of shares but selling an overwhelming $450.2M, leading to a net selling of $449.4M over the past 12 months. This significant net selling may signal a lack of confidence from those who know the company best, which could be a red flag for potential investors.
What This Means for InvestorsBased on the current GF Value™ assessment and the overall analysis, AST SpaceMobile Inc appears to be undervalued at its current price of $66.12 when compared to the estimated GF Value™ of $537.22. However, the company's unprofitability and recent insider selling indicate that caution is warranted. Investors should consider these factors before making any decisions.
For more detailed insights, visit the AST SpaceMobile Inc ASTS stock page, and explore the GF Value™ page or the GuruFocus Stock Screener for further analysis.
Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat is ASTS's GF Score™?
ASTS has a GF Score™ of 44/100, indicating that it has average overall health and attractiveness, with significant weaknesses in profitability and growth.
Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?
ASTS is currently considered undervalued, with a GF Value™ estimate of $537.22 compared to its current price of $66.12.
What is ASTS's P/E ratio?
ASTS does not have a P/E ratio due to its unprofitability; thus, this metric is not applicable for comparison to historical valuations.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Disclosures I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +0.29%), a developer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company in April 2021. It's risen more than fivefold since its market debut, but could it deliver millionaire-making gains?
Why did AST's stock soar? AST's LEO satellites, which are much larger than SpaceX's (SPCX -1.20%) Starlink satellites, help telecom companies expand their wireless networks to remote areas. It's launched 13 of its BlueBird satellites so far, and 12 of them are currently in orbit.
Image source: Getty Images.
AST aims to expand its constellation to 45 satellites by early 2027, and to more than 248 satellites over the next few years. It's already working with more than 60 carriers worldwide, including AT&T and Verizon, to reach over 3 billion wireless subscribers.
AST's backlog reached $1.3 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, which is equivalent to nearly eight times its projected revenue of $169 million for the full year. By 2028, analysts expect its revenue to reach $1.73 billion as more carriers use satellite-based connections.
But with a market cap of $18.7 billion, AST already trades at 11 times its 2028 sales. It could deliver multibagger gains over the next decade as it expands, but it probably won't turn a fresh $10,000 investment into $1 million with a 100-bagger gain. Instead, investors should consider it a volatile -- but promising play -- on the nascent market for LEO satellites.
Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Adriana Cisneros, a director of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS +0.29%), purchased 10,822 shares of Class A Common Stock on Aug. 31, 2026, according to a recent SEC Form 4 filing.
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Transaction summaryMetricValueTransaction value~$619,235Shares purchased (indirectly held)10,822Post-transaction shares (indirectly held)~2.4 millionPost-transaction value$140.7 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price ($57.22); post-transaction value based on Aug. 31, 2026 market close ($59.10).
Key questionsWhat is the nature of the indirect ownership structure?
The shares are held through three distinct entities: 1979 Edendale Investments Ltd. (an entity held by The Adriana Cisneros 2014 Portfolio Trust), the director's spouse, Nicholas Griffin, and an adult child who is a college student residing in the household.How does this purchase align with recent stock performance?
Shares were acquired at $57.22 per share on Aug. 31, 2026, a date when the stock closed at $59.10. The company recorded a 21% return over the 12-month period ending on the transaction date.What is the insider's remaining exposure to the company?
Following this transaction, the director maintains a position of ~2.4 million shares held through indirect entities. This equity interest is valued at $140.71 million based on the Aug. 31, 2026 market close.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-08-31)$59.10Market Capitalization$22.9 billionRevenue (TTM)$115.3 millionNet Income (TTM)-$618.8 millionCompany SnapshotAST SpaceMobile operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network that delivers mobile internet access directly to standard mobile phones, generating revenue through SpaceMobile service offerings to consumers and businesses in underserved regions.The company's business model centers on providing satellite-to-phone connectivity infrastructure that eliminates the need for traditional terrestrial mobile networks, capturing addressable markets in remote, oceanic, and airborne communication segments.AST SpaceMobile targets consumers and enterprises in geographically isolated areas lacking conventional mobile coverage, including maritime operators, aviation passengers, and populations in remote terrestrial locations across global markets.AST SpaceMobile is a satellite communications infrastructure provider headquartered in Midland, Texas, with a market capitalization of $22.9 billion and approximately 1,126 employees. The company is executing a capital-intensive strategy to deploy and scale its proprietary satellite constellation, positioning itself as a differentiated competitor in the emerging satellite-to-phone broadband sector. AST SpaceMobile's competitive advantage lies in its direct-to-phone technology architecture, which eliminates the need for specialized handsets and leverages the existing global installed base of standard cellular devices.
What this transaction means for investorsCisneros was the first investor in AST SpaceMobile. She knows the business inside and out. That she is buying now is a bullish sign.
Why? Because there are many reasons an insider may sell shares, some of which have no reflection on their belief in the stock's direction, like having to pay a large personal expense or diversifying their holdings.
There is only one reason an insider buys shares: they believe the stock price will rise.
By that rule of thumb alone, Cisneros's purchase of AST SpaceMobile shares is a bullish signal. That signal is further bolstered by studies showing that, more often than not, an insider purchase predicts a higher share price 30 days later.
It's not just insider buying that is signaling ASTS as a potential buy. AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T (T -1.95%), Verizon Communications (VZ -0.89%) Vodafone (VOD +1.93%), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL -1.11%), American Tower (AMT -1.07%), Telus (TU -0.72%), Bell Canada and Rakuten,
By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.
In light of the company's bright outlook, Cisneros's purchase is part of a broader bullish mosaic for potential investors to consider.
Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, and American Tower. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Space stocks were all the rage this past spring, and the initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies, known as SpaceX, on June 12 brought renewed interest to the entire sector.
The World Economic Forum estimates that global spending on space could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023. The bull case for that growth is the need for space-based enabled technologies in communications, positioning, navigation and timing, and Earth observation. The shrinking size and cost of satellites have enabled a surge in rocket launches to put those satellites there, with the number of space launches growing every year of this decade.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +0.29%) is a satellite communications company that is building a satellite network, and L3Harris Technologies (LHX -1.70%) is a defense contractor with significant exposure to the space industry. AST SpaceMobile's shares are down more than 24% since SpaceX's IPO on June 12, while L3Harris' shares are down over 15% in that same period.
Let's see if either one is worthy of purchase now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Each stock faces legitimate concerns L3Harris is undergoing a massive capital expansion program, building out over 60 facilities and upgrading missile production capacity. Combined with a heavy debt load that generated $597 million in annual interest expenses in 2025, these elevated investments risk pressuring near-term free cash flow and profit margins if revenue conversion lags.
Defense procurement relies heavily on fixed-price contracts. If high inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, or manufacturing complexity lead to cost overruns during its missile production ramp-up, L3Harris, rather than the government, must absorb them, hurting operating margins.
AST SpaceMobile is building and launching a global satellite constellation, a process that requires billions in up-front capital. AST SpaceMobile continues to report multi-hundred-million-dollar annual net losses and negative free cash flow. To fund operations, the company relies heavily on convertible debt and secondary stock offerings, which pose a continuous risk of equity dilution for current shareholders.
The company faces significant execution risks and has pushed back the launch of its satellite phone service from late 2026 to 2027. On top of that, the direct-to-cell market is getting crowded. Competitors such as SpaceX's Starlink, Globalstar from Apple, and Kuiper from Amazon are aggressively expanding their capabilities.
Knowing the negatives, let's see which space stock is the best to buy now.
AST is seeing a huge spike in revenue In the second quarter, AST SpaceMobile said its revenue backlog had surged to $1.3 billion. Rather than competing with traditional telecom giants, the company partners with more than 60 major mobile network operators (MNOs) globally, including AT&T, Verizon Communications, Vodafone, and Rakuten Group. This revenue-sharing model grants instant access to a combined subscriber base of hundreds of millions without heavy customer acquisition or marketing costs.
In the quarter, the company reported revenue of $31.5 billion, up 263% year over year, and it said it expects yearly revenue between $150 million and $200 million, up 147% at the midpoint.
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L3Harris is consistently profitable L3Harris can't match AST SpaceMobile's revenue growth, but it is a more established company that is consistently profitable. In the second quarter, it reported revenue of $7.3 billion, up 8%, year over year, and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.13, up 28% over the same period a year ago. Its backlog, at $42 billion, dwarfs AST SpaceMobile's.
It also upgraded its yearly revenue and EPS guidance. It said it expects 2026 revenue of $23.2 billion to $23.7 billion, up 7% at the midpoint, while yearly EPS is estimated between $11.80 and $12, up 39.5% at the midpoint.
AST SpaceMobile's technology is unique AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell architecture is fundamentally different from traditional satellite communications, which require external ground hardware such as Starlink dishes or satellite phones. Instead, AST SpaceMobile's system acts as a network of space-based cell towers that connect natively to standard, unmodified 4G and 5G smartphones.
Instead of purchasing expensive, dedicated satellite spectrum, AST uses the existing cellular spectrum leased by its operator partners. When a subscriber walks out of range of ground towers, the terrestrial network hands off the device to the satellite array using those frequency bands.
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L3Harris has multiple ways to benefit from space spending L3Harris Technologies has positioned its space & airborne systems segment to capture high-margin, sticky revenue across several areas. As the U.S. Space Force and Space Development Agency (SDA) move from large, expensive orbital platforms to low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations, L3Harris has established itself as a leading provider of payloads by improving its manufacturing facilities to meet high-volume needs at a lower cost.
Through its acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne in 2023, L3 Harris supplies solid-rocket motors, liquid propulsion engines, and in-space electric thrusters for launch vehicles, missile defense systems, and space travel. The company also builds space domain awareness software, ground control systems (such as ATLAS), and tactical communications architecture to connect space data with forces on the ground.
Go with the steady choice L3Harris operates as a mature Tier-1 defense contractor anchored by steady government funding, multiyear military procurement programs, and a record backlog exceeding $42 billion. This foundation generates predictable revenue and cash flows.
AST SpaceMobile is a high-beta, speculative growth play incurring heavy cash burn, with many questions about project execution.
The biggest advantage L3Harris has is its government-connected contracts. While they may expose the company to fixed-price entanglements, the company has a substantial moat, aided by defense-industry entry barriers, including strict national security clearances, specialized defense manufacturing capabilities, and decades-long relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments.
While AST SpaceMobile holds an impressive patent portfolio in direct-to-cell space communications, it faces intensifying competition.
Japan just handed a foreign satellite company something no G20 nation has ever offered before, and the telecom giant most investors are obsessing over right now has nothing to do with it.
Every retirement account in America seems to want a piece of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction), the freshly public Starlink parent now carrying a $2 trillion market cap after a 36.65% one-month rip. But here’s what you should actually be watching.
Crowded, Unprofitable, and Priced for Perfection SpaceX just posted $7.81B in Q2 2026 revenue and beat consensus by 14.59%, yet still reported an operating loss of $143M and a net loss of $541M. The Connectivity segment grew 66% year over year, but Starlink ARPU compressed from $85 to $66 even as subscribers doubled. That is classic late-cycle unit economics dressed up as growth.
Then there is the capital sinkhole. Capex hit $18.37B in a single quarter, with $15.83B directed at AI compute, and a $60B pending acquisition of Cursor is scheduled to close in Q3. One podcast host summed up the pivot bluntly, calling SpaceX “his AI holding company”. Retirement investors chasing a trillion-dollar rocket-and-GPU conglomerate through a post-IPO hype cycle are providing the exit liquidity.
The Sovereign Satellite Layer Nobody Is Pricing In The smarter play sits at roughly $18.68 billion in market cap: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS). While Starlink chases consumer broadband and Musk chases compute, ASTS is quietly becoming the operating system for direct-to-device cellular from space. Three points make the case.
Japan Just Blessed a National BlueBird Constellation Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications preliminarily selected the Rakuten and AST joint venture for the J-LEO initiative, worth up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. Separately, Japan filed an ITU application for a 136-satellite “J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO” architecture, with government subsidies covering as much as 50% of eligible costs and private matching pushing the program toward $2 billion. As President Scott Wisniewski put it, “I don’t know why a G20 country wouldn’t want this kind of capability given the price.” This is a template: governments finance and own AST-powered constellations while AST collects the platform economics.
BlueBird Constellation Is Actually Flying ASTS now has 13 BlueBird spacecraft in orbit with roughly 20,000 sq ft of aperture hardware deployed, launched six spacecraft in 50 days, and is producing approximately six fully assembled satellites per month. BlueBirds 14 through 16 are ready to ship, BlueBirds 17 through 46 are in production, and the target is roughly 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027. Block 2 satellites are engineered for peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps. Commercial service can begin with as little as 45 satellites.
Fortress Balance Sheet and a 3-Billion-Subscriber Rolodex Pro forma liquidity exceeds $3.70 billion following the July 2026 $1.150 billion convertible offering. Backlog sits at roughly $1.30 billion. Over 60 MNO partners cover 3+ billion subscribers, including Vodafone, Verizon, AT&T, Rakuten, and Deutsche Telekom, and $125 million in U.S. Government awards anchor a defense pipeline. Analysts carry an average target of $79.61 against a last close of $62.31.
What to Do Stop rubbernecking the SpaceX ticker and start doing the work on ASTS before Japan converts a preliminary award into a signed contract.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
AST SpaceMobile has fallen nearly 53% despite reaching 13 launched satellites, a $1.3 billion backlog, and $3.7 billion pro forma liquidity. Roughly 45 satellites could enable continuous coverage in key markets, making early 2027 the critical commercialization inflection point. Government programs exceeding $100 million could evolve into multibillion-dollar recurring revenue while sovereign funding partially finances constellation expansion.
Space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS just had its best single-day stock performance since June.
On Wednesday, Sept. 2. ASTS’s nearly 12% gain was welcome news to investors who had endured a brutal slide since shares of the Midland, Texas-based company hit their all-time high (ATH) on May 28.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Friday, September, 4, 2026
As the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX competitor continues to work its way back toward its ATH, shareholders who have grown accustomed to the ups and downs of the rapidly scaling and highly volatile stock just got a shot in the arm.
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A New Tailwind Ahead of AST SpaceMobile’s Next BlueBird Satellite DeploymentThroughout 2026, AST SpaceMobile’s successful (and less successful) low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellite launches have served as catalysts.
The next cohort slated to join its LEO constellation is nearing completion. BlueBird 14 is ready for launch, while BlueBirds 15 and 16 are undergoing final preparations.
While no launch date has been announced, based on prior schedules—including the Aug. 5 deployment of Bluebirds 11, 12, and 13—that could happen at some point in October. But the Sept. 2 ASTS rally was not rooted in the company’s launch schedule.
Current Price$63.13High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$86.58Low Forecast$50.80AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details
Rather, AST SpaceMobile took off on Wednesday thanks to Berenberg’s Michael Filatov initiating coverage, which was extremely bullish.
Filatov not only assigned ASTS a Buy rating, but he also gave the stock a 12-month price target of $92—a roughly 47% potential gain from Wednesday's share price—citing AST SpaceMobile’s hard-to-replicate positions in the space-based telecom industry.
ASTS carries a consensus Hold rating with just six of 13 analysts currently covering the stock assigning it a Buy rating, alongside an average 12-month price target of nearly 39%.
The announcement of initiated coverage and an aggressive price target was enough to make AST SpaceMobile the big winner among space stocks on the day.
Filatov also initiated coverage of Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB and Planet Labs PBC NYSE: PL, assigning both Buy ratings, but neither was able to blast off quite like ASTS did.
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Filatov noted that AST SpaceMobile is "the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones," adding that its more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships cover roughly three billion subscribers.
Those strategic agreements include pacts with communication services sector mainstays AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNF, as well as a strategic relationship with real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT and the U.S. federal government.
However, while the firm expects to deploy direct-to-device (D2D) commercial services beginning in the first half of 2027, that goal comes with significant caveats.
AST SpaceMobile still faces regulatory hurdles before it can begin commercial D2D service. In August, the FCC granted the company a 30-day authorization, running through Sept. 12, to test D2D connectivity on up to 100 off-the-shelf devices using 800 MHz spectrum.
Meanwhile, a series of weak earnings continues to be an obstacle. AST SpaceMobile missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as spending rose sharply to support its satellite buildout, following a galactic Q1 miss.
Despite reaffirming its 2026 revenue outlook and reporting a backlog of about $1.3 billion, expanding at the scale and speed at which AST SpaceMobile is requires the company to spend its cash reserves at an alarming rate.
Analysts forecast a full-year cash burn rate in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, driven primarily by R&D, AST SpaceMobile’s vertically integrated BlueBird satellite production, and costly rocket launch service fees, of which SpaceX charges around $55 million to $65 million per launch.
To address that expense, the company is exploring a partnership or potential acquisition of a launch services provider. In a Form 8-K filing on July 15, AST SpaceMobile noted that its $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2034 was intended to “further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers.”
However, the offering carries concerns about shareholder dilution. AST SpaceMobile ultimately raised $1.15 billion through the convertible notes, which carry an initial conversion price of $79.57 per share. However, the company also entered into capped call transactions designed to reduce potential dilution, resulting in what AST says is an effective conversion price of $149.20 and effective dilution of less than 2%.
Wall Street Sentiment Remains MixedWhile the stock remains highly volatile with a current beta of 2.74 and short interest at 18.67% of the float, or $4.08 billion worth of ASTS shares, institutional investors are buying the stock in rapid succession.
Over the past 12 months, inflows from 384 institutional buyers have totalled more than $5 billion, while outflows from 111 institutional sellers have been limited to just over $400 million. At 60.95%, institutional ownership is still below average, but AST SpaceMobile has seen buying accelerate since Q2 2025.
AST SpaceMobile continues to work its way toward its target of 45 BlueBird satellites in LEO by early 2027. A company press release confirmed that it is well on its way to achieving that goal, with “production advancing through BlueBird satellite 42” as it continues to scale its constellation.
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RADNOR, Pa., Sept. 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com), a nationally recognized securities litigation law firm, is investigating potential violations of the federal securities laws by AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) on behalf of investors who purchased or acquired AST SpaceMobile, Inc. securities and experienced significant financial losses.
AST Downgraded Amid Financial Concerns
On January 7, 2026, Scotiabank downgraded AST to sell, citing, among other things, significant competition from SpaceX's Starlink, slow customer adoption, and delays in launching AST's satellites. Then, on July 15, 2026, AST issued a press release "announc[ing] the pricing of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 1.625% convertible senior notes due 2034".
ABOUT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP (KTMC):
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (KTMC) is a leading U.S. plaintiff-side law firm focused on securities-fraud class actions and global investor protection. The firm represents individual investors as well as institutions, such as major pension funds, asset managers, and international investors. KTMC has led some of the largest recoveries in securities litigation and has been recognized by peers and the legal media with numerous accolades, including being recognized in Chambers & Partners USA 2026 as a Band 1 Top Firm in Securities and Class Actions, Legal 500’s Tier 1 Rankings for Securities and M&A Litigation, The National Law Journal’s Plaintiff’s Hot List and Trailblazers in Plaintiffs' Law, BTI Consulting Group’s Honor Roll of Most Feared Law Firms, The Legal Intelligencer’s Class Action Firm of the Year, Lawdragon’s Leading Plaintiff Financial Lawyers, and Law360’s Titans of the Plaintiffs Bar. The firm operates globally with offices in Pennsylvania and California. KTMC has recovered over $25 billion for our clients and the classes they represent.
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AST SpaceMobile is building a cellular network in orbit that connects directly to ordinary smartphones, and one bold price target suggests the stock could nearly double from here. But a brutal Q2 miss, a law firm investigation, and a 2.75…
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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is one of the most polarizing stories in the market right now. The company is building a space-based cellular broadband network that talks directly to unmodified smartphones, and today shares are ripping.
Intraday, ASTS is up 9.39% to $61.04. Yet the stock is still down 23.17% year to date. That disconnect is what makes the setup interesting. I want to walk through whether ASTS can nearly double from here and reach $120 by 2027, or if that number is a fantasy.
What’s Holding ASTS Back Right Now Let me be direct: the Q2 report was ugly. Revenue of $31.5 million missed the $34.40 million consensus, and GAAP EPS came in far below expectations, weighed down by a $125.9 million loss tied to the BB7 launch incident. Shares are down 10.01% over the past week and 5.39% over the past month.
Layer in a Pomerantz Law Firm investigation announced in August and a beta of 2.75, and it is easy to see why the stock has been treacherous. This is a pre-revenue-scale operator diluting shareholders to build hardware in orbit. Nothing about that is smooth.
Wall Street Sees 28% Upside. Our Model Sees More The consensus analyst target sits at $78.48, with 1 strong buy, 3 buy, 7 hold, 1 sell, and 1 strong sell. That is a bullish minority at 31%. Our own model, a weighted blend of forward P/E and analyst target adjusted by the 247Factor, arrives at a base case of $88.53, or 44.91% upside, with a bull case of $106.60 and a bear case of $68.69.
Confidence is medium at 0.5. My take: analysts are anchored to legacy models built for cash-flow businesses. They are underweighting how quickly a satellite constellation can revalue once commercial service flips on.
Path to $120 Per Share Reaching $120 from today’s price of $61.04 would require a gain of 96.6%. That is aggressive, but it is inside the range implied by a beta of 2.75. Now the P/E math. Forward EPS is negative $2.13, which means a price of $120 implies a forward P/E of negative 56x. For a pre-profit constellation builder, backlog and scale are what matter.
Here the story gets interesting. AST has a $1.3 billion contracted revenue backlog, a $1 billion Japan J-LEO award, and reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150 to $200 million.
CEO Abel Avellan told investors: “We are on the cusp of commercial deployment as we prepare to scale our space-based service to everyday unmodified smartphones.”
He also confirmed the target of approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027. A Barron’s piece this week argued ASTS could follow Voyager Technologies higher as post-earnings space names rerate. The primary risk is a launch failure that delays commercial service.
Where ASTS Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power With negative forward EPS, ASTS cannot be valued on P/E today. The 52-week range of $36.08 to $133.86 tells you everything about how the market is groping for a number.
Shares have returned 471.14% over the past decade and 350.73% over five years. The core valuation question is whether the approaching $1 billion first-full-year commercial service goal is real. If it is, today’s price looks light.
Is $120 Realistic? My Verdict A move to $120 requires that 96.6% gain, which is a stretch but not a moonshot for a name with 2.75 beta.
Three things need to go right: commercial beta service actually launches in late 2026, the BlueBird 14 to 46 production cadence holds, and government contracts convert from development awards into recurring programs.
What derails it is another launch incident that pushes the constellation timeline out. A 2.75-beta pre-revenue name like this belongs in the speculation sleeve of a portfolio, sized and fenced accordingly (we wrote a free playbook on doing exactly that here: Small Stakes, Big Swings). Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how AST SpaceMobile could reach $120 in 2027.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
RADNOR, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com), a nationally recognized securities litigation law firm, is investigating potential violations of the federal securities laws by AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) on behalf of investors who purchased or acquired AST SpaceMobile, Inc. securities and experienced significant financial losses. AST Downgraded Amid Financial Concerns On January 7, 2026, Scotiabank downgraded AST to sell, citing, among other things,.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
AST SpaceMobile ASTS stock surged 11% on Wednesday after Berenberg Bank initiated coverage of the satellite connectivity company with a Buy rating and a $92 price target.
The target implies roughly 65% upside from the stock’s previous close.
Berenberg highlighted AST SpaceMobile’s ability to provide cellular broadband connectivity from space directly to unmodified smartphones as a key competitive advantage.
The German investment bank said the company is the only one to have demonstrated what it considers true cellular broadband connectivity from space to standard smartphones.
The coverage comes as Berenberg expands its focus on the space sector, with the firm identifying AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Planet Labs as companies positioned to benefit from the industry’s expected growth.
Berenberg expects AST SpaceMobile to begin scaling commercial operations meaningfully in 2027.
The company has more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships covering approximately 3 billion potential subscribers.
The company also has access to low-band spectrum, along with owned L-band and S-band spectrum.
Its operations additionally include a growing government and defense business.
Berenberg said AST SpaceMobile complements rather than competes directly with mobile carriers including AT&T, Verizon Communications, Vodafone Group and Rakuten Group.
The firm expects the company to achieve rapid revenue growth and high margins once continuous service launches in 2027.
The brokerage also pointed to the company’s partnerships and spectrum assets as advantages that competitors do not have.
Berenberg described the stock’s risk-reward profile as asymmetric and identified multiple potential catalysts ahead.
Berenberg’s initiation of coverage on AST SpaceMobile was part of a broader assessment of the space industry.
Analyst Michael Filatov initiated coverage of AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Planet Labs with Buy ratings.
According to the firm, the global space economy surpassed $500 billion in 2025 and is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. Berenberg attributed the expected expansion to falling launch costs and accelerating commercialization across the sector.
The brokerage said it favors businesses with “vertically integrated launch” capabilities, referring to companies that control more of their launch supply chain. It also prefers satellite networks and technologies that are difficult for competitors to replicate.
AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-smartphone connectivity fits into that broader investment framework, according to Berenberg, while its existing carrier relationships provide a commercial foundation ahead of its planned service expansion.
Analysts remain mixed on ASTS outlookWhile Berenberg took a bullish view, other analysts have maintained more cautious positions on AST SpaceMobile.
UBS maintained a Neutral rating on Aug. 11 while lowering its forecast to $78. Piper Sandler retained an Overweight rating on the same day but reduced its forecast to $98.
The differing views come as AST SpaceMobile approaches its expected 2027 commercial expansion.
Berenberg’s bullish case centers on the company’s demonstrated satellite-to-smartphone technology, spectrum holdings, carrier partnerships, and potential for revenue growth following the launch of continuous service.
AST SpaceMobile was also among the space stocks in focus alongside Rocket Lab and Planet Labs following Berenberg’s sector coverage.
The broader industry outlook is being supported by lower launch costs, while investors continue to assess which companies can translate technological capabilities into sustainable commercial growth.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +11.83%) stock is up 13% as of 3:22 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026, after Berenberg initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both up so far in Wednesday's trading, jumping 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
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Berenberg's $92 target implies about 50% upside for AST SpaceMobile The satellite-communications stock is up after analysts at Berinberg initiated coverage, calling it a Buy and setting a $92 price target -- a roughly 50% upside from the stock's price around midday.
The bank believes that AST can turn its satellite network into a healthy commercial business and that its direct-to-device model plays well with the core service from existing terrestrial communication giants like Verizon and AT&T Inc., rather than trying to compete with them directly.
AST SpaceMobile's revenue jumped, but so did its losses and debt In its most recent quarter, the company reported $31.5 million in revenue, a huge year-over-year jump. However, it also reported a $230.9 million net loss and $2.7 billion in cash against roughly $3 billion in long-term debt.
Image source: Getty Images.
This is an extremely capital-intensive business, and unlike its competition, the company doesn't have a launch business to help offset the costs. Still, I think there is an opportunity here if you keep your allocation small and accept the fact that there is substantial execution risk.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ASTS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) is down approximately 15% over the past month and fell over 2% on Tuesday, after a stretch that included second-quarter earnings and concerns over its reliance on third-party launch providers.
AST SpaceMobile stock is trending lower. Why is ASTS stock trading lower? Q2 Misses Estimates, Reaffirms FY Revenue OutlookAST SpaceMobile reported an adjusted loss of 35 cents per share on August 10, missing the consensus estimate of a loss of 28 cents, while revenue of $31.52 million also missed the $34.977 million consensus estimate. Revenue backlog increased to approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue spanning commercial partners and U.S. government contract awards.
The company reaffirmed its fiscal-year revenue outlook of between $150 million and $200 million, versus the $168.87 million consensus estimate.
The SpaceX Launch ConcernShares fell on August 26 after SpaceX announced structural changes to its launch operations, raising concerns given AST SpaceMobile’s dependence on third-party rockets. In a post on X, SpaceX’s VP of Launch, Kiko Dontchev, confirmed that a mission from Cape Canaveral’s Pad 40 was the last planned Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida, saying future Starlink missions from Florida would shift to Starship instead. AST SpaceMobile has relied primarily on Falcon 9 for its BlueBird satellite launches since a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket carrying its BlueBird 7 satellite was destroyed in a launchpad failure in late May.
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AST SpaceMobile Shares Tumble LowerASTS Price Action: At the time of publication, AST SpaceMobile shares are trading 2.96% lower at $57.35, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Pumpkin spice latte season is upon us, and perhaps no company is looking forward to turning the page on summer more than Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS.
Since the space-based cellular broadband network provider’s stock hit its all-time high on May 28, it has fallen nearly 54%.
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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Monday, August, 31, 2026
As the company continues to build out its constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites, numerous headwinds and tailwinds could work against it and or in its favor. But the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX competitor will have to overcome some challenges—and embrace certain catalysts—as it aims to work its way back into investors’ good graces.
Concerns Mount Over AST SpaceMobile’s Burn Rate, Dilution, and Heavy Insider SellingAST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$85.98
49.70% Upside
Hold
Based on 12 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$57.43High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$85.98Low Forecast$50.80AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details
Like any company expanding at the scale of AST SpaceMobile, the speed at which it spends its cash reserves can be alarming.
Those outlays are necessary in order to achieve objectives. But that doesn’t quell critics’ concerns.
Analysts are forecasting a full-year cash burn rate between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.
That spending is being driven by R&D, vertically integrated BlueBird satellite production, and costly rocket launch service fees, of which SpaceX charges around $55 million to $65 million per.
To address that last expense, the company is exploring a partnership or potential acquisition of a launch services provider, but that has come with strings attached. In a Form 8-K filing on July 15, AST SpaceMobile noted that its $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 was intended to “further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers.”
As ambitious as that is, the $1 billion offering raises the specter of shareholder dilution.
AST SpaceMobile ultimately raised $1.15 billion through the convertible notes, which carry an initial conversion price of $79.57 per share. However, the company also entered into capped call transactions designed to reduce potential dilution, resulting in what AST says is an effective conversion price of $149.20 and effective dilution of less than 2%.
Another headwind comes in the form of heavy insider selling. Over the trailing 12 months, insiders have liquidated more than $450 million worth of ASTS, while only buying $187,240 worth of the stock, all of which came in Q4 2025. In Q1 and Q2, there were zero buys.
The company has also strung together a chain of disappointing earnings. Most recently, AST SpaceMobile’s Q2 report on Aug. 10 resulted in its sixth consecutive earnings per share (EPS) miss, and its seventh revenue miss in eight quarters.
EPS of negative 77 cents missed the consensus estimate of negative 32 cents by a wide margin, while revenue of $31.52 million came in below expectations of $34.53 million.
Concerningly, Q2 adjusted operating expenses—excluding cost of revenues—rose to $95.9 million, capital expenditures reached approximately $610 million. Q3 adjusted operating expenses are expected to increase to a range of $105 million to $115 million.
A Reversal Will Largely Depend on the Success of AST SpaceMobile’s FCC Test and Its PartnershipsAST SpaceMobile Today
$58.35 +0.30 (+0.52%)
As of 01:40 PM Eastern
$36.08▼
$133.86$85.98
The rollout of AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-device (D2D) network depends in part on regulatory approvals and testing as well as the roughly 60 strategic partnerships it already has in place.
Earlier in August, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted the company a temporary 30-day authorization to test D2D connectivity using 800 MHz spectrum on up to 100 commercially available devices running through Sept. 12.
That testing comes amid a broader push by major U.S. carriers to expand satellite-based D2D coverage. On May 14, AT&T NYSE: T, T-Mobile NASDAQ: TMUS, and Verizon NYSE: VZ announced an agreement in principle to form a joint venture that aims to expand satellite-based D2D wireless coverage in the United States by pooling spectrum resources, improving D2D capacity, and creating a more unified platform for satellite providers. Among the three carriers, currently only T-Mobile uses Starlink to fill coverage gaps, while AT&T and Verizon have agreements in place with AST SpaceMobile.
The company also has an agreement in place with Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNF
In its Aug. 10 update, AST said the Rakuten-AST joint venture had been preliminarily selected by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for the J-LEO initiative, with a total expected value of up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. Rakuten has said it is targeting the launch of domestic service in Q4 2026.
While the stock remains highly volatile with a current beta of 2.75 and short interest at 18.67% of the float, or $4.08 billion worth of ASTS shares, institutional investors taking the long view are buoying the stock. Over the past 12 months, inflows from institutional buyers have totaled more than $5 billion, while institutional sellers’ outflows have been limited to less than $400 million.
AST SpaceMobile continues to work its way toward its target of 45 BlueBird satellites in LEO by early 2027. A company press release confirmed that it is well on its way to achieving that goal, with “production advancing through BlueBird satellite 42” as it continues to scale its constellation.
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SpaceX just wound down Falcon 9 East Coast Starlink launches, and AST SpaceMobile is taking the brunt while Rocket Lab barely flinches. The split tells you something important about which space stocks actually carry launch risk.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 4% to $59.67 midday Wednesday, while the rest of the space complex is barely budging. Traders are pointing to a Falcon 9 wind-down announcement from SpaceX as the threat to launch-dependent names. The move looks more selective than that.
Meanwhile, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is down 0.8% to $66.35, an ordinary session against the AST SpaceMobile slide. The Procure Space ETF (NYSEARCA:UFO) is down 0.7% to $44.26, a routine move for the cluster fund that carries this contrast. AST SpaceMobile stock was down 15% year to date through Tuesday’s close, adding weight to today’s drop against an already tough backdrop.
Falcon 9 Wind-Down Puts Launch Dependency in Focus SpaceX completed its last planned Falcon 9 Starlink mission from Florida on Tuesday, transferring East Coast Starlink launches to Starship, per Stocktwits. SpaceX Vice President of Launch Kiko Dontchev called it “the end of an era” in a post on X. Falcon 9 Starlink missions continue from California, and the rocket will still support Crew Dragon, NASA, national-security and previously contracted commercial missions, with a residual fleet potentially serving critical government customers into the early 2030s.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk said Falcon will be wound down once Starship is flying reliably several times per week. Falcon 9 is on pace for 155 missions in 2026, down from a record 165 in 2025. The transition is real, but it’s gradual, and the trajectory has been telegraphed for quarters.
That framing matters for how the market can read the AST SpaceMobile slide. The rocket isn’t disappearing tomorrow, and Starship’s ramp is being executed on a multi-year handoff schedule rather than a cliff.
Why AST SpaceMobile Feels It More AST SpaceMobile depends on third-party launch providers, which leaves its BlueBird rollout exposed to delays and capacity constraints. As of August 10, the company had 12 commercial BlueBirds in orbit and 10 launches booked across two providers, targeting a launch every one to two months and roughly 45 satellites by early 2027 for initial commercial service. Any wobble in Falcon 9 availability lands harder on AST SpaceMobile than on peers with their own rockets.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron targets the medium-lift segment Falcon 9 dominates, carrying 13 to 15 metric tons to low Earth orbit. Its backlog reached a record $2.36 billion in the second quarter, up 137% year over year, with more than 90 launches under contract. Tighter medium-lift capacity is a tailwind for Rocket Lab, so its shares don’t share AST SpaceMobile’s exposure profile.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) is less exposed because its lunar missions are mostly NASA-backed, insulating it from commercial Starlink scheduling. KeyBanc Capital Markets said in June that the launch market could remain undersupplied for more than a decade even if Starship succeeds, which supports the launch providers rather than punishing them.
A Nuanced Bear Case Moving Florida Starlink missions off Falcon 9 could actually free pad time and scheduling capacity for AST SpaceMobile’s booked flights, which cuts against a purely bearish read. No confirmed company-specific catalyst has surfaced for the AST SpaceMobile drop today, so the move reads as sentiment around launch dependency rather than fresh news.
Rocket Lab has said its 2026 Neutron debut window is narrowing, making a 2027 launch increasingly likely, which pushes any Neutron relief for third-party customers further out. The Procure Space ETF’s session tone suggests the broader complex isn’t repricing the Falcon 9 transition as a sector-wide threat, since if it were, launch providers and the sector fund would be sliding alongside AST SpaceMobile stock.
What to Watch Next Investors can watch for a fresh AST SpaceMobile launch-cadence update or additional provider bookings in the coming weeks. AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird production pace and any Blue Origin schedule commitments will shape how much cushion the company has against Falcon 9 timing shifts.
Position sizing matters here. ASTS stock carries a beta of 2.7 and a price-to-sales ratio of 210, so investors bullish on the BlueBird thesis may want to keep exposure modest and add on confirmation of launch execution rather than on sentiment swings. Bearish investors may prefer to stand aside until a company-specific catalyst emerges, since the sector isn’t offering a shortcut to the trade.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile has partnerships with 60 mobile operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers.ASTS trades at 48.14X forward sales, far above the 4.98X sub-industry and 6.3X sector multiples.AST SpaceMobile had pro forma liquidity above $3.7B to support more than 100 BlueBird satellites. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) offers a high-growth direct-to-device broadband story as satellite deployment, operator partnerships and commercial preparations advance.
Investors must decide whether those potential offsets outweigh a valuation far above industry and sector benchmarks while execution demands, heavy spending and losses persist.
ASTS Has a Large Commercial OpportunityAST SpaceMobile has signed partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers. Its network is designed to connect directly to standard, unmodified smartphones, while approximately 3,900 patent and patent-pending claims support its technology position.
That network includes AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) , which has a definitive commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile through 2030 for space-based broadband direct to everyday cell phones. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) has also partnered with AST SpaceMobile for direct-to-cellular connectivity using 850-megahertz spectrum, underscoring carrier interest in satellite coverage that complements terrestrial networks.
AST SpaceMobile Revenue Growth Is AcceleratingThe Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for revenues of $163 million in 2026 and $682 million in 2027. Projected sales growth for the current year is 129.6%, reflecting a steep ramp from the company’s still-small revenue base.
AST SpaceMobile also reported approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue agreements and U.S. government awards. Management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, supported by gateway deliveries and government programs.
ASTS Trades at a Steep Sales MultipleASTS trades at 48.14X forward 12-month sales per share. That compares with 4.98X for the Zacks sub-industry and 6.3X for the Zacks sector, leaving the stock at a substantial premium.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The multiple places considerable weight on successful constellation deployment, service activation and future revenue scaling. The valuation offers limited room for operational setbacks if commercial adoption or launch timing falls short of expectations.
AST SpaceMobile Still Must Execute at ScaleAST SpaceMobile is expanding satellite production, arranging launches, deploying gateways and integrating its network with mobile operators. It targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027, with about 45 to 60 satellites expected to support continuous service across key markets.
BlueBird 7 was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit and later de-orbited, leading to a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion in the second quarter. Additional launch problems could delay service activation and revenue realization, while operating and capital spending remain elevated.
ASTS Has Liquidity to Fund Its AmbitionsCash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled about $2.7 billion at June 30, 2026. A July convertible senior-note offering raised $1.15 billion of gross proceeds and lifted pro forma liquidity above $3.7 billion.
Management said that capital position can support the build-out and launch of more than 100 BlueBird satellites. The liquidity cushion reduces near-term financing pressure, but capital requirements remain substantial as manufacturing and launch activity increase.
ASTS Rating Signals Favor PatienceThe growth case is sizeable, but ASTS combines a premium valuation with demanding operational milestones and a still-unprofitable earnings profile. That mix supports patience rather than treating projected revenue growth alone as a reason to buy.
ASTS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), along with a VGM Score of F, Value Score of F, Growth Score of F and Momentum Score of D. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. A Hold rank can support maintaining an existing position, while the weak Style Scores indicate less favorable value, growth and momentum characteristics than higher-scoring stocks. The readings support a measured approach while investors watch execution and commercialization progress.
Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile launched six BlueBirds in 50 days, expanding its in-orbit network to 13 spacecraft.ASTS targets about 45 satellites by early 2027, with 45-60 needed for continuous service in key markets.AST SpaceMobile reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M, with revenue weighted toward Q4. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) has accelerated BlueBird deployment as it moves toward beta service and broader commercialization. Six satellites launched within 50 days lifted its in-orbit network to 13 spacecraft.
The investment question is whether that pace can support meaningful 2026 revenues while the company manages launch risk, network activation and the spending needed to reach continuous coverage.
ASTS Adds Six BlueBirds in Just 50 DaysBlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 launched in June, followed by BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 in August. The newer satellites use approximately 2,400-square-foot communications arrays and are designed to provide direct broadband connectivity to standard smartphones.
The six launches expanded AST SpaceMobile’s network to 13 in-orbit spacecraft. The company expects its newer Block 2 satellites to approach 200 Mbps in peak data rates, versus nearly 100 Mbps demonstrated by the initial Block 1 satellites.
AST SpaceMobile Targets 45 Satellites by Early 2027BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 were ready to ship around the second-quarter update, while BlueBirds 17 through 46 were in various stages of production and assembly. AST SpaceMobile targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027.
Management estimates that roughly 45 to 60 satellites could provide continuous service across key markets. That target makes manufacturing cadence and dependable access to launch capacity central to the company’s expansion plan.
ASTS Links Deployment to Commercial ActivationAST SpaceMobile is preparing beta service with selected mobile network operators during 2026. It has activated about 3,000 digital cells across the continental United States, while nearly 50 gateways are in various stages of completion, installation and planning.
Carrier relationships provide a path from satellite coverage to customer service. AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) has a definitive commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile through 2030 for space-based broadband direct to everyday cell phones. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) has also partnered with AST SpaceMobile to expand direct-to-cellular coverage, including use of 850-megahertz spectrum.
AST SpaceMobile Has Revenue Milestones AheadManagement reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. Second-quarter revenues were $31.5 million, driven primarily by commercial gateway deliveries and U.S. government service milestones.
AST SpaceMobile also reported approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue agreements and U.S. government awards. Management expects 2026 revenues to build sequentially and be weighted toward the fourth quarter, with potential initial commercial service revenues adding to gateway and government contributions.
ASTS Cannot Afford Repeated Launch SetbacksBlueBird 7 was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit in April 2026 and later de-orbited because the altitude was insufficient for sustained operations. AST SpaceMobile recorded a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion in the second quarter.
The company still depends on repeated successful launches to reach approximately 45 satellites by early 2027. Additional delays or failures could postpone continuous service across key markets and shift revenue realization, directly linking launch reliability to the commercialization timetable.
ASTS Rating Signals Keep Expectations in CheckThe launch cadence is advancing, but meaningful commercial progress still depends on turning a larger constellation into reliable service and recurring revenues. Government contracts and gateway deliveries support the near-term revenue plan, while broader service activation remains an execution test.
ASTS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a VGM Score of F, Value Score of F, Growth Score of F and Momentum Score of D. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. A Hold rank can support maintaining an existing position, while the weaker Style Scores indicate less favorable value, growth and momentum characteristics than higher-scoring stocks. The signals favor measured expectations as deployment continues.
The commercialization of space has moved from science fiction to a multi-billion-dollar reality, creating new opportunities for retail investors. AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS -5.52%) and Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY -4.06%) offer different paths into this final frontier.
While both companies operate in the space economy, they target distinct segments. One aims to revolutionize global communication through a satellite-based broadband network, while the other focuses on the infrastructure needed to reach and operate in orbit. Identifying the better buy requires a look at their business models and financial health.
The case for AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network that allows standard, unmodified mobile phones to connect directly to satellites. The company has secured partnerships with major network operators, including AT&T (T +2.28%), Verizon Communications (VZ +1.35%), and Vodafone Group(VOD +1.01%), representing nearly 3 billion potential subscribers. Relying on a small number of major carriers for its primary service access adds a layer of risk to the business. However, its revenue-sharing model with these partners provides a clear path to scaling its user base without acquiring individual customers.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.This resulted in a net margin of -482.2%, illustrating the high costs associated with launching a satellite constellation before reaching full operational scale.
The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Based on the December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is roughly 16.4x. This indicates a high level of liquid assets relative to near-term liabilities. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, as the firm invested heavily in its proprietary manufacturing and launch capabilities. The current ratio is 16.4x, which measures a company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with assets that can be converted to cash quickly.
The case for Firefly AerospaceFirefly Aerospace operates in the defense stocks segment, providing launch services and spacecraft solutions for national security and commercial customers. The company maintains a long-term agreement with Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT -0.36%) through 2031 and collaborates with Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC +0.08%) on major space systems. These relationships provide Firefly with a steady pipeline of government and defense work, focusing on missions from Earth to the Moon. Its acquisition of SciTec in 2025 also added intelligence and data processing capabilities to its portfolio.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $159.9 million, up from nearly $60.8 million in the previous fiscal year. This 163% growth indicates a successful scaling of its launch cadence and expanded service offerings. However, the company reported a net loss of nearly $298.3 million for the year. Its net margin of -186.6% shows that while revenue is growing rapidly, the costs of developing complex aerospace hardware still outweigh current sales.
Based on its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.3x, suggesting a relatively conservative use of debt to fund operations. The current ratio is nearly 4.5x, indicating a solid buffer for meeting short-term financial obligations. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was negative $237.8 million. Because Firefly is building out its Alpha launch vehicle and Eclipse lunar lander, high capital expenditures continue to outpace cash generated from operations.
Risk profile comparisonAST SpaceMobile faces significant execution risks because its SpaceMobile Service depends on the successful launch and assembly of a massive satellite constellation. The company has a history of losses and requires substantial additional capital to fund its expansion, which could lead to dilution or liquidity issues. It also operates under strict regulatory requirements for spectrum access in multiple countries. Furthermore, it faces competition from established satellite providers like Iridium Communications (IRDM -2.18%) and Globalstar (GSAT -0.35%), as well as voting control concentrated in its founder, Abel Avellan.
Firefly Aerospace is sensitive to shifts in the U.S. government budget, as a large portion of its revenue comes from national security and civil space appropriations. Any delays in the launch cadence for its Alpha rocket or technical failures during missions could materially hurt its reputation and financial standing. The company is also navigating litigation regarding contractual fees and the complex integration of its recent acquisitions. Unlike its competitors in the communications space, Firefly must manage the high-stakes operational risks of orbital launches where a single failure can lead to total mission loss.
Valuation comparisonFirefly Aerospace appears to be the more conservatively valued option based on current revenue, while AST SpaceMobile commands a premium for its disruptive potential. Neither has a forward price-to-earnings ratio.
MetricAST SpaceMobileFirefly AerospaceForward P/En/an/aP/S ratio149x12.9xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T (T +2.28%), Verizon, Bell Canada, Rakuten, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc (GOOGL +1.74%), American Tower (AMT +1.19%), and Telus (TU -0.92%).
By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.
Firefly went public in an initial public offering last August at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.
More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to execute a successful lunar landing, achieving this in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's aim to construct a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the recent SpaceX IPO-Space Exploration Technologies Inc (SPCX +0.45%) -- will bring to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.
While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.
Investing in either of these young companies will likely bring some turbulence, but both offer rapid growth potential for those going along for the ride. Firefly Aerospace's promise of being a key supplier to NASA's moon aspirations, as well as its lower P/S, make it the smart pick here.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -5.52%) stock is falling this week, down 15.5% as of 2:14 p.m. ET on Friday, Aug. 28, 2026, as investors react to macro news that makes a rate hike more likely.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both up this week, gaining 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech raised rate-hike odds AST SpaceMobile is building a constellation of satellites largely on borrowed money. That makes it especially sensitive to a change in interest rates. If interest rates move higher, AST's borrowing costs increase, and the math on their investments changes.
This week's economic data, released on Wednesday, revealed that inflation remains well above where the Federal Reserve -- the body responsible for setting interest rates and keeping inflation in check -- wants it. That means the odds are now greater that the Fed will soon hike rates.
Image source: Getty Images.
That suspicion was confirmed on Friday when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an important speech from Jackson Hole in which he said that inflation should be the Fed's primary focus right now.
AST SpaceMobile's net loss widened to $230.9 million in Q2 2026 Q2 sales for AST SpaceMobile were $31.5 million, up considerably from $1.2 million a year earlier. The problem is, losses are widening alongside that growth. Net loss increased to a whopping $230.9 million during the quarter.
AST stock is too risky for my money, especially given the high likelihood that rates could soon increase.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
On August 24, 2026, AST SpaceMobile Inc
ASTS -9.18% 45
shares fell 9.2% to a current price of $62.35, reflecting a significant decline in the context of its 52-week range of $36.08 to $133.86. The stock's year-to-date performance shows a decline of 14.2%, yet it has appreciated 32.5% over the past year and 156.4% over the last three years.
GF Value™ verdict: Current price of $62.35 vs GF Value of $523.92, indicating an 88.1% upside potential. GF Score™: 45/100, suggesting an average overall performance. Most notable signal: Insider activity reveals a net selling of $451.8M over the past 12 months. Is ASTS Overvalued or Undervalued? Based on the latest evaluation, AST SpaceMobile Inc
ASTS -9.18% 45
appears to be significantly undervalued according to the GF Value™, which estimates its fair value at $523.92. This represents a potential upside of 88.1% from the current trading price of $62.35. However, this extreme reading should be approached with caution, as the GF Value™ is derived from various factors including historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance projections. Given that ASTS is currently unprofitable and cash-flow negative, earnings-based valuation metrics like the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio are not applicable, reinforcing the need to rely on other valuation measures.
The GF Valuation label indicates that ASTS is a possible value trap, advising potential investors to think twice before making commitments. This warning signals the importance of considering the broader financial context and sustainability of the business model, especially when assessing a company that has not yet established consistent profitability.
How Does ASTS's Valuation Compare to Its History? Currently, AST SpaceMobile Inc's P/E ratio is not available due to its unprofitable status. Therefore, a historical P/E comparison is not possible. This lack of traditional earnings metrics reinforces the view that ASTS should be evaluated through alternative lenses, primarily focusing on its sales performance and growth potential rather than earnings.
What Does ASTS's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ provides a comprehensive assessment of a company's financial health and growth potential by evaluating several key factors. ASTS's current GF Score™ of 45/100 indicates average performance overall. The strongest sub-rank is in momentum, reflecting a rank of 8/10, while the weakest areas are profitability (1/10) and growth (0/10).
Metric Rating GF Score™ 45 Financial Strength 5/10 Profitability 1/10 Growth 0/10 Valuation 2/10 Momentum 8/10 The overall scores suggest that while ASTS is experiencing positive momentum, it faces significant challenges in profitability and growth, which are critical determinants of long-term success. The financial strength rating of 5/10 indicates a balanced position, but the low profitability and growth scores highlight the need for caution in assessing the company's future potential.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with ASTS? Currently, six gurus hold shares of AST SpaceMobile Inc, with five increasing their positions and two trimming their holdings in recent quarters. This activity reflects a cautious optimism among experienced investors. However, it is crucial to note the insider activity over the past 12 months, where insiders bought $0.2M worth of shares but sold an overwhelming $452.0M, resulting in a net selling of $451.8M. Such a significant net selling by insiders may suggest a lack of confidence in the company's short-term prospects or a strategic exit by those with intimate knowledge of the business.
This guru and insider activity signal is a unique aspect of the investment landscape for ASTS, as it provides insights into the attitudes of informed investors that are not available in traditional analysis platforms.
What This Means for Investors Based on the analysis above, AST SpaceMobile Inc
ASTS -9.18% 45
appears to be undervalued according to the GF Value™, with a significant potential upside suggested by its fair value estimate. However, investors should be mindful of the considerable risks associated with its current unprofitable status and negative cash flows. The recent insider selling raises further questions about the company's immediate future.
For more detailed insights, visit the AST SpaceMobile Inc
ASTS -9.18% 45
stock page, and consider checking the GF Value™ page for a deeper understanding of its valuation metrics.
Frequently Asked Questions What is ASTS's GF Score™?
ASTS has a GF Score™ of 45/100, indicating an average overall performance across various financial metrics.
Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?
ASTS is considered undervalued based on the GF Value™, which suggests a significant potential upside from its current trading price.
What is ASTS's P/E ratio?
ASTS currently has no available P/E ratio due to its unprofitable status, making a historical comparison impossible.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
Choosing between Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR -3.65%) and AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS -9.18%) requires weighing the future of urban air mobility against the promise of universal satellite-based cellular connectivity for everyday smartphones.
Archer focuses on electric flight to bypass city traffic, while AST SpaceMobile builds a space-based network to bridge global communication gaps. Both companies represent high-risk, high-reward plays in the industrial stocks and communications space, attracting investors eager to capitalize on disruptive technology early in its commercialization.
The case for Archer AviationArcher designs and develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, primarily its flagship Midnight model. Its commercial strategy relies on collaborations with airline operators like United Airlines (UAL +0.35%) and infrastructure partners for vertiports. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, though the recent acquisition of Boeing Co (BA -1.75%) subsidiaries Wisk Aero and SkyGrid expands its technological footprint.
For fiscal year 2025, Archer Aviation reported revenue of just $300,000. This early stage revenue was accompanied by a net loss of approximately $618.2 million. This reflects a company still in its pre-commercial phase as it pursues aircraft type and production certification, involving heavy spending on research and development before large-scale aircraft deliveries can begin.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was roughly 0.1x. This ratio measures total debt, including short- and long-term obligations, against shareholders' equity, with a lower number indicating less reliance on borrowed money. The so-called current ratio measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations with assets that can be converted to cash within one year. As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio stands at approximately 19.9x.
Archer reported a debt-to-equity ratio of about 0.1x, which compares its total debt to the value owned by shareholders. Free cash flow was roughly negative $511.7 million, calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures.
The case for AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile is building the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to standard smartphones for commercial and government use. Its strategy, detailed in its latest annual report, relies on partnering with mobile network operators like AT&T Inc (T +1.58%) and Verizon Communications (VZ +1.42%) to fill coverage gaps for nearly 3 billion subscribers. With definitive agreements with these major carriers and various U.S. government agencies, customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business. That said, it also counts Vodafone Group (VOD +0.13%) and Saudi Telecom Co as strategic international partners who help it navigate local regulatory markets.
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.
The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Based on the December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is roughly 16.4x. This indicates a high level of liquid assets relative to near-term liabilities. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, as the firm invested heavily in its proprietary manufacturing and launch capabilities.
Risk profile comparisonArcher faces significant regulatory hurdles, as it is heavily dependent on the FAA for aircraft certification and urban air mobility operations. The company also deals with manufacturing risks since it lacks experience in high-volume production and relies on third-party suppliers for custom parts. Furthermore, integrating newly acquired units from Boeing involves complex management of diverse technologies and personnel that could divert management resources.
AST SpaceMobile operates in a capital-intensive environment where satellite launch delays or deployment failures could derail the entire business model. The company must also navigate complex multi-jurisdictional regulatory approvals to access the necessary wireless spectrum. Competition in the satellite space from entities like Amazon.com Inc (AMZN +1.33%) or the Starlink division of Space Exploration Technologies Inc (SPCX -1.44%) remains a constant threat to its long-term adoption goals.
Valuation comparisonAST SpaceMobile appears cheaper on a price-to-sales basis, while Archer Aviation carries a much higher multiple due to its extremely early stage of revenue generation.
MetricArcher AviationAST SpaceMobileForward P/En/an/aP/S ratio668x171xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Archer gained significant credibility in the market through a purchase agreement with United Airlines (UAL +0.35%)to serve as taxis, thereby extending the airline's services. The contract isn't guaranteed to be executed in full, however.
Still, Archer is making progress toward executing on that deal. For one, the federal government created a framework in 2025 for real-world testing of eVTOL aircraft, a concrete step toward making Archer's vision a reality. Other countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, are developing similar regulatory frameworks. Much has to happen for Archer's aircraft to get into the skies, but the notion that the nation's airspace is being regulated in a way that is holding back growth is one that has found favor among U.S. leadership.
Archer is taking steps to refurbish a small Los Angeles airport, Hawthorne, for use as its testing grounds and is working to scale up its manufacturing capabilities to eventually reach capacity for 50 planes a year. Executives at the business have an initial plan to focus on military and cargo uses for its plane, which would be an easier path to early revenue. Future estimates are speculative, but Wall Street analysts see Archer turning its first profit in 2030, with $2.3 billion in revenue, but a lot has to go right between now and then.
AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, Rakuten, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc (GOOGL +0.94%), American Tower (AMT +1.47%), and Telus (TU -0.71%).
By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.
Both companies are fast growers, but AST Spacemobile appears to have a faster path to significant revenue and relatively high moats to more competitors entering. Archer, meanwhile, not only has to deal with EV planmakers like Joby Aviation (JOBY -4.51%), but the conventional small jet sector too.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is down 3% to $133.48 in early Monday trading, extending a slide that has surprised bulls counting on federal launch policy to lift the group. The pullback comes even as President Trump signed a memo directing agencies to target at least 1,000 launches and re-entries annually by 2030.
Also trading lower, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is off 2% to $71.22, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 3% to $66.85. Rocket Lab stock was up 75% over the past year through Friday’s close, so a modest cooldown fits a stretched tape running into a critical hardware milestone.
Notably, the selling looks concentrated in the pure-play names. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is down just 0.4% to $45.75, a small move that shows broader satellite, defense, and connectivity components are holding the sector together while launch equities take the hit.
Trump’s Launch Memo Meets a Sell-the-News Tape President Donald Trump signed a memo Thursday directing federal agencies to target at least 1,000 launches and re-entries annually by 2030, per Reuters. Last year’s total was 178 launches, framing the order as a dramatic scale-up rather than an incremental push. The memo directs agencies to identify federal land for new launch and re-entry sites, name a new federal re-entry site within 90 days, expedite permitting, speed environmental reviews, and secure wireless spectrum.
White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios called it a commercial-first approach. The angle bulls expected was a straight-line bid for launch and satellite equities. However, the market is pricing execution schedule over demand, and the 2030 target sits well beyond the near-term catalysts investors care about today.
Neutron Timing Is the Real Story for Rocket Lab Rocket Lab CFO Adam Spice said a successful Neutron test launch would flip the company meaningfully adjusted EBITDA positive the following quarter, stating “The path to positive EBITDA is very clear. It’s really getting that first Neutron launch off.” CEO Peter Beck cautioned that “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing,” with Neutron still targeted for fourth-quarter pad delivery.
Rocket Lab stock fell for a fourth consecutive session Friday, and Stocktwits retail sentiment flipped to bearish from bullish a week earlier. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab completed Electron’s 93rd flight last week, was selected by Viasat for its Lightning-GEO anti-jam Space Force communications satellite, and joined the $981 million-ceiling NITE-STAR program. None of that changes the calendar risk on Neutron, which is the event investors are actually trading around.
Peers Slip While the Sector ETF Holds Its Ground Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) stock is down 2% to $17.93, cooling after a strong August run tied to lunar contract wins. At the same time, Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is off 2% to $21.94 despite recent momentum in its Earth-imaging business.
Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) stock is down 0.7% to $3.05, a smaller move that reflects its minimal exposure to the launch cadence trade after the company delayed its first commercial spaceflight to February 2027. SpaceX itself completed two Starlink missions over the weekend, including a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg Space Force Base carrying 27 Starlink satellites, and is preparing its 14th Starship test. SpaceX carried out 170 launches in 2025, illustrating how large the gap is between current industry throughput and the new 1,000-launch target.
What Investors Should Watch Next The setup is a policy tailwind that doesn’t take effect for years running into a hardware schedule that matters this quarter. Investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest in the pure-play launch names until Neutron’s test window firms up, since a slip into 2027 would delay Rocket Lab’s cash-flow inflection and pressure a stock trading at 60.33 times sales.
Investors can watch for Neutron pad-delivery confirmation from Rocket Lab and any near-term federal re-entry site designation, both of which would put real dates behind the launch memo. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether SpaceX stock reclaims its recent range or continues to unwind post-IPO enthusiasm as retail sentiment cools across the launch complex.
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AST SpaceMobile is down about 5.8% YTD while the fleet reached 13 satellites, the backlog grew and liquidity crossed $3.7B, which gives patient investors a chance to accumulate. Trump's new memorandum targets more than 1,000 U.S. launches and reentries annually by 2030, roughly 6x the 178 conducted in 2025, which should improve sentiment across the space sector. Q2 revenue reached $31.5M against $1.1M a year ago, and management reiterated full-year guidance of $150M to $200M.
Moderately bullish activity in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), with shares up $3.85, or 5.91%, near $68.91. Options volume running well above average with 99k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.41, compared to a typical level near 0.48. Implied volatility (IV30) is higher by 3.3 points near 79.34,in the lowest 10% of observations over the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $3.44. Put-call skew steepened, indicating increased demand for downside protection.
Key Takeaways IBM is better placed than ASTS, with 2026 EPS growth expected versus a sharp decline.IBM trades at 3.08 times forward sales versus 55.85 for AST SpaceMobile, making it more attractive.AST SpaceMobile gained 48.8% over the past year, but its 2026 EPS estimate fell 48% in 60 days. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM - Free Report) are key players in the communications-technology ecosystem with exposure to next-generation communications and enterprise/government technology infrastructure. AST SpaceMobile is building the world’s first and only global cellular broadband network in space, accessible directly by standard smartphones (4G-LTE/5G devices) for commercial and government use, leveraging its extensive intellectual property and patent portfolio. The SpaceMobile Service is provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) using low-band and mid-band spectrum controlled by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in areas lacking terrestrial network coverage.
IBM offers cloud and data solutions, including enterprise-level networking, cloud and AI infrastructure solutions, which aid enterprises in digital transformation. In addition to hybrid cloud services, the company provides advanced information technology solutions, computer systems, quantum computing and supercomputing solutions, enterprise software, storage systems and microelectronics.
Let us delve a little deeper into the companies’ competitive dynamics to understand which of the two is relatively better placed in the industry.
The Case for AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile is reportedly on track to deploy approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027. The company has already deployed 13 commercial satellites (dubbed BlueBird) in LEO, marking a key advancement in developing a space-based mobile network infrastructure. BlueBird 14, 15 and 16 satellites are currently prepared and scheduled to ship for launch, while BlueBird satellites 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly. Utilizing large phased array antennas measuring approximately 2,400 square feet, AST SpaceMobile's technology is backed by more than 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims. This design aims to deliver global cellular coverage by eliminating dead zones and providing space-based connectivity to areas without broadband service.
The SpaceMobile service is compatible with all major brands available in the market and connects directly to everyday mobile phones. It delivers broadband connectivity from space to unmodified mobile devices, providing a service to fill cellular coverage gaps in a differentiated approach compared to other space-based communication services. AST SpaceMobile has partnered with leading carriers such as AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) to tap into a pre-existing pool of cell customers and raise funds to help build a worldwide satellite network. This has enhanced cellular coverage in the United States, essentially eliminating dead zones and empowering remote areas of the country with space-based connectivity.
However, elevated spending has overshadowed the company’s progress in satellite deployment and commercial partnerships. Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation, higher interest rates, capital market volatility and geopolitical conflicts, have adversely impacted the company’s operations. These have led to continued fluctuations in satellite material prices, resulting in increased capital costs and pressure on the company’s financial performance. In addition, AST SpaceMobile faces severe competition from existing and new industry leaders like SpaceX’s Starlink and Globalstar, which are developing satellite communications technology using LEO constellations. To combat such competitive pressure, ASTS has to continuously customize its network offerings, enhance the cost-effectiveness of its products and services and boost the satellite data networks, which increases operating costs and reduces margins.
The Case for IBMIBM is poised to benefit from healthy demand trends for hybrid cloud and AI, which drive the Software and Consulting segments. The company’s growth is expected to be aided by analytics, cloud computing and security in the long term. With a surge in traditional cloud-native workloads and associated applications, along with a rise in generative AI deployment, there is a radical expansion in the number of cloud workloads that enterprises are currently managing. This has resulted in heterogeneous, dynamic and complex infrastructure strategies, which have led firms to undertake a cloud-agnostic and interoperable approach to highly secure multi-cloud management, translating into a healthy demand for IBM hybrid cloud solutions.
In addition, the buyout of HashiCorp has significantly augmented IBM’s capabilities to assist enterprises in managing complex cloud environments. HashiCorp’s tool sets complement IBM Red Hat’s portfolio, bringing additional functionalities for cloud infrastructure management and bolstering its hybrid multi-cloud approach.
Despite solid hybrid cloud and AI traction, IBM is facing stiff competition from Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft Corporation’s (MSFT - Free Report) Azure. Increasing pricing pressure is eroding margins, and profitability has trended down over the years, barring occasional spikes. The company faces a potent threat from AI firm Anthropic as the latter’s Claude Code tool can modernize legacy COBOL systems – a foundational programming language deeply embedded in IBM’s mainframe ecosystem. With Claude Code proposing to substantially automate code exploration, documentation, refactoring and security analysis, it threatens to reduce enterprises’ reliance on specialized legacy service providers like IBM, bringing its sustenance at stake.
How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for ASTS & IBM?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 129.5%, while that of EPS suggests a decline of 63.4%. The EPS estimates have been lowered 48% over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IBM’s 2026 sales indicates year-over-year growth of 4.4%, while that for EPS suggests an improvement of 6.4%. The EPS estimates have trended down 0.2% over the past 60 days.
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Price Performance & Valuation of ASTS & IBMOver the past year, AST SpaceMobile has gained 48.8% compared with the industry’s growth of 38.7%. IBM has declined 1% over the same period.
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IBM looks more attractive than AST SpaceMobile from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/sales ratio, IBM’s shares currently trade at 3.08 forward sales, significantly lower than AST SpaceMobile’s 55.85.
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ASTS or IBM: Which is a Better Pick?Both AST SpaceMobile and IBM carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both companies expect their sales to improve in 2026. However, ASTS’ earnings are likely to decline significantly, while IBM’s bottom line is expected to witness modest growth. IBM has shown relatively steady revenue growth for years, while AST SpaceMobile has been facing a bumpy road. In terms of price performance, AST SpaceMobile has outperformed IBM but is trading expensively compared to the latter in terms of the valuation metric. With improved estimate revisions, IBM is relatively better placed than AST SpaceMobile and seems to be a better investment option at the moment.
Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile missed Q2 estimates, with a 44-cent non-GAAP loss per share and $31.5 million in revenue.ASTS' operating expenses rose to $329.1 million from $74 million as network buildout accelerated.ASTS' 2026 and 2027 loss estimates widened 212.9% and 276.5% over the past year, signaling skepticism. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) reported soft second-quarter 2026 results, with both the top and bottom lines missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Non-GAAP net loss for the reported quarter was 44 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. Quarterly revenues of $31.5 million also missed the consensus estimate of $34.1 million.
ASTS Plagued by High Operating CostsElevated spending overshadowed the company’s progress in satellite deployment and commercial partnerships during the quarter. The bottom-line miss primarily reflected AST SpaceMobile’s rapidly expanding cost base as it accelerates the buildout of its space-based cellular broadband network. Total operating expenses surged to $329.1 million from $74 million in the year-ago quarter.
Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation, higher interest rates, capital market volatility and geopolitical conflicts, have adversely impacted AST SpaceMobile. These have led to continued fluctuations in satellite material prices, resulting in increased capital costs and pressure on the company’s financial performance. Due to high infrastructure setup costs and research and development expenses for highly sophisticated satellite technology, AST SpaceMobile expects significant expenditures in the coming months to build and launch the next crop of satellites, in line with its expansion plans to serve the full spectrum of U.S. subscribers.
The combination of the earnings miss and rising expenditures likely reinforced investor concerns over how quickly AST SpaceMobile can translate its technological and deployment progress into healthy recurring revenues and improving profitability. The miss is particularly noteworthy given ASTS’ elevated growth expectations. The company is transitioning from a development-stage satellite operator toward scaled commercial service, making the pace at which satellite deployments convert into revenues an increasingly important metric for investors.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ASTS’ Long-Term Growth Story Remains IntactDespite the quarterly blip, AST SpaceMobile is reportedly on track to deploy approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027. The company has already deployed 13 commercial satellites (dubbed BlueBird) in LEO, marking a key advancement in developing a space-based mobile network infrastructure. BlueBird 14, 15 and 16 satellites are currently prepared and scheduled to ship for launch, while BlueBird satellites 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.
Utilizing large phased array antennas measuring approximately 2,400 square feet, AST SpaceMobile's technology is backed by more than 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims. This design aims to deliver global cellular coverage by eliminating dead zones and providing space-based connectivity to areas without broadband service. By connecting directly to standard smartphones at broadband speeds, these advanced phased arrays eliminate the need for special equipment, enhancing current mobile networks while ensuring seamless use of existing mobile phones. The SpaceMobile service is compatible with all major brands available in the market and connects directly to everyday mobile phones.
Price PerformanceAST SpaceMobile has surged 53.2% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 34%. It has also outperformed its peers like Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW - Free Report) and Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL - Free Report) over this period. While Aviat has declined 1.2%, Comtech is down 18.4% over the same period.
One-Year ASTS Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimate Revision Trend of ASTSThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile's loss for 2026 and 2027 has widened 212.9% and 276.5%, respectively, to $2.19 and 90 cents per share over the past year. The negative estimate revision depicts pessimism about the stock’s growth potential as investors remain skeptical about the success of its business model.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End NoteThe collaboration with leading carriers is seen as a pathway to unlocking the potential of space-based cellular broadband, promising seamless, reliable service across the continental United States and Canada. The successful launch of the Bluebird satellites will likely transform network connectivity and help bridge the digital divide, significantly expanding its global presence and enhancing AST SpaceMobile’s capabilities in providing ubiquitous connectivity.
However, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), AST SpaceMobile appears to be treading in the middle of the road, and investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines until greater visibility emerges regarding the commercial-service ramp and the path toward improving operating leverage. While ASTS’ long-term opportunity in direct-to-device satellite connectivity remains compelling, the second-quarter miss shows that considerable execution will be required before that opportunity is fully reflected in its financial performance.
The downtrend in estimate revisions further portrays skepticism about the business model. Consequently, it might not be prudent to bet on the stock at the moment. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Space stocks are trading in split fashion Thursday morning, and the tape tells a more nuanced story than the headline suggests. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is down 3.5% intraday, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is off 3%, and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) is down roughly 1.6% after opening deeply negative on earnings. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is bucking the group, up 1.1%.
Intuitive Machines Earnings Set the Tone [stock_chart ticker=”LUNR”]
The catalyst driving today’s chop is Intuitive Machines’ Q2 report, released Thursday morning. Revenue hit a company-record $206.2 million but missed the FactSet consensus of $216.3 million, paired with a wider-than-expected loss. What kept the selloff shallow: $920 million in new awards booked during the quarter and a backlog that ended at $1.8 billion. The stock opened sharply lower and buyers stepped in almost immediately. That intraday round trip matters. It signals investors are treating weakness in this group as an entry point.
Intuitive Machines’ lunar delivery work overlaps commercially with SpaceX’s launch services and NASA program exposure, so a soft earnings report here tends to bleed into sentiment across the space complex.
SpaceX Digests a Massive Weekly Run [stock_chart ticker=”SPCX”]
SpaceX’s pullback looks like a breather after a strong run. Shares are up 35% over the past week, powered by Wednesday’s rally on the release of Grok 4.6. The xAI model reportedly scored 61 on an intelligence index, matching OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol.
The bigger picture: AI revenue at SpaceX grew 247% year over year to $2.56 billion last quarter, which is why the stock increasingly trades alongside AI infrastructure names rather than pure-play space peers. Morgan Stanley has argued investors are undervaluing that AI franchise. SpaceX only listed publicly around June 2026 at roughly $135, so volatility around the name is still finding its equilibrium. We covered the setup earlier this week in our short-squeeze analysis and Elon Musk’s latest internet-traffic prediction.
It’s worth noting as well that significant amounts of inflow are moving into memory today after SanDisk forecast stronger than expected non-GAAP margins of 80% in the 2028 to 2030 period. That flow into memory stocks could be moving out of SpaceX as they’re two of the most popular trades amongst retail investors.
ASTS and RKLB Diverge AST SpaceMobile is still digesting its Q2 report from August 10. Revenue came in at $31.52 million, missing consensus of $34.40 million, with GAAP EPS of -$0.77 hit by a $125.9 million loss tied to the BB7 launch incident. Yet ASTS is still up 9% on the week, so today’s move is a giveback.
Rocket Lab is the counterweight. Q2 revenue of $234.07 million beat by 1% and jumped 62.0% year over year, with backlog swelling to a record $2.36 billion. CEO Peter Beck called it “another fantastic quarter”. That fundamentals story is why RKLB is green while peers digest.
Peers Follow the Split Ticker Today 1-Week YTD SPCX -3.42% +34.99% n/a (recent IPO) ASTS -2.65% +8.67% +2.31% LUNR ~-1.6% +21.16% +4.44% RKLB +1.10% +8.49% +16.36% PL +0.61% +9.62% +24.24% Planet Labs and Redwire are both modestly green, reinforcing the read that this is a rotation inside the group. Redwire’s Q2 revenue beat consensus by a solid margin and Planet’s RPOs climbed sharply year over year, giving buyers fundamental cover.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +3.74%), a developer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company on April 7, 2021. It started trading at $11.63 per share on its first day, but now trades at nearly $74 per share.
That rally was driven by its partnerships with telecom giants such as AT&T and Verizon, the launch of its first commercial satellites, and its ambitious expansion plans. But with a market cap of $21.5 billion, it already trades at 127 times this year's sales.
Image source: Getty Images.
That high price-to-sales ratio might seem unsustainable, but I believe AST's subscriber growth and long-term plans justify the higher valuation. Let's see why its stock is still worth buying today.
How fast is AST SpaceMobile growing? AST's LEO satellites help telecom companies expand their wireless networks to remote areas that terrestrial towers can't reach. It has successfully launched 13 of its BlueBird (BB) satellites over the past two years, and it plans to put 45-60 satellites into orbit by the end of this year. Over the long term, it aims to expand that constellation to more than 248 satellites.
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AST already works with over 60 carriers worldwide to collectively cover more than 3 billion wireless subscribers. Its backlog reached $1.3 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, driven by its new contracts with commercial partners and the U.S. government. That's nearly eight times its projected revenue of $168.5 million for the full year.
As AST expands its satellite constellation, analysts expect its revenue to surge to $650.4 million in 2027 and $1.76 billion in 2028. They expect its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2027 and jump to $1.35 billion in 2028. If it hits those numbers, its stock would seem a bit cheaper at 12 times its 2028 sales.
Why is AST SpaceMobile's stock still worth buying? The LEO satellite market could expand at a 14% CAGR from 2025 to 2033, according to Grand View Research, as more private companies and national space agencies expand their orbital communications networks. AST has already established an early mover's advantage in that market by locking in dozens of wireless carriers, and it has plenty of room to grow in the commercial and government sectors. Its stock might remain volatile in this choppy market, but it could deliver significant long-term gains for investors who can tune out near-term noise.
Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The space logistics market could grow at a 19% CAGR from 2025 to 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights, as more private companies and government agencies launch more satellites and space exploration missions. To capitalize on that secular trend, investors should consider investing in three of the industry's highest-growth stocks: SpaceX (SPCX -3.93%), Rocket Lab (RKLB -0.04%), and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +4.17%).
All three of these stocks seem like speculative bets today, but they all have the potential to turn $10,000 into $50,000 over the next decade as the nascent space logistics market expands.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX SpaceX went public this June in the largest IPO in history, but its stock is still trading slightly below its IPO price because it's a divisive investment. The bulls believe it will successfully expand its space, satellite, and AI businesses to become a massive, end-to-end provider of launch, satellite internet, and orbital AI infrastructure services.
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The bears believe the losses at its space and AI divisions will continue to wipe out its satellite division's profits, and that its stock will crumble under the weight of its massive valuations. Even after dipping below its IPO price, SpaceX still looks expensive at 41 times this year's sales.
But its Falcon rockets and Starlink satellites have already established early mover advantages in the reusable orbital launch and internet satellite markets, and it could eventually tie those businesses together through its xAI platform and generative AI services.
SpaceX's founder and CEO, Elon Musk, claims SpaceX's annual revenue could surge to $1 trillion by 2030 as those businesses expand. That would represent a 5-year CAGR of 122% from its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. If SpaceX comes anywhere close to hitting Musk's ambitious target, its stock could easily rise more than fivefold over the next decade.
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile compete with SpaceX in the reusable orbital rocket and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite markets, respectively. But both companies have carved out defensible niches in those markets and continue growing in SpaceX's shadow.
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Rocket Lab's Electron rockets, which have been launched 92 times to deploy more than 263 satellites, carry smaller payloads than SpaceX's Falcon rockets. Its next rocket, Neutron, will carry larger payloads but still have a lower maximum capacity than SpaceX's Falcon 9. It plans to eventually become an "end-to-end" space services company that manufactures more spacecraft, satellites, and subsystems for private companies and government agencies.
AST SpaceMobile has launched only 10 commercial LEO satellites so far. But unlike SpaceX's Starlink satellites, which power its own first-party satellite internet service, AST helps telecom companies like AT&T and Verizon expand their 5G networks to areas that their terrestrial towers can't reach. AST's satellites are also much larger than Starlink's satellites. AST plans to expand its constellation to 45-60 satellites by the end of 2026, with a longer-term goal of amassing up to 248 satellites over the next few years.
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Rocket Lab's stock isn't cheap at 51 times this year's sales, but analysts expect its annual revenue to nearly triple from 2025 to 2028. AST's stock looks even pricier at 122 times this year's sales, but Wall Street expects its revenue to rise more than 25 times from 2025 to 2028.
Both of these stocks look just as speculative as SpaceX. But they could also have plenty of room to grow as they launch more rockets and satellites. Economies of scale will also eventually kick in, narrow their losses, and pave the way toward eventual profitability. Analysts expect both companies' adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2027 and grow significantly in 2028.
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile could remain volatile in this choppy market, but they both have the potential to generate multibagger gains over the next decade. They could also become lucrative takeover targets for SpaceX or other larger space-oriented companies, so they might be worth nibbling on today.
AST SpaceMobile stock held firm despite an earnings miss. Its technical setup suggests it could follow space peer Voyager Technologies higher. (Gabby Jones/Bloomberg)
Waiting until after an earnings report to buy a stock can reduce some of the risk around the event. If shares gap lower, you avoid the damage. And if they rise, the gains can continue in the days and weeks ahead.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) is getting closer to turning its satellite network into a commercial business, and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is helping put the pieces in orbit.
SpaceX has now launched six of AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites this year, including BlueBirds 8–10 in June and BlueBirds 11–13 on Aug. 5. The latest Falcon 9 mission brought AST SpaceMobile’s total BlueBird count in orbit to 13.
For AST SpaceMobile, those launches are part of a much bigger race: building enough of its constellation to begin commercial service and move toward a revenue target of nearly $1 billion.
"We still, nothing’s changed on our expectation and our goal of reaching approaching a billion of revenue in our first year of commercial service," Chief Strategy Officer Scott Wisniewski said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
The Satellite Count MattersAST SpaceMobile is targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027, with BlueBirds 14 through 16 ready to ship and satellites 17 through 46 already in various stages of production and assembly.
The company says it is ramping toward a production cadence of six fully assembled satellites per month, while its broader plan calls for eventually deploying more than 100 BlueBird satellites for worldwide SpaceMobile service.
That makes launch capacity just as important as manufacturing capacity. AST SpaceMobile has said it wants additional access to orbit and is pursuing partnerships or acquisitions to reduce the risks associated with relying on third-party launch providers.
SpaceX is already part of that launch infrastructure. Its Falcon 9 rockets carried BlueBirds 8–10 and 11–13 into orbit this year.
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$1 Billion Would Come From More Than PhonesGetting satellites into orbit is only the first step. AST SpaceMobile expects its first full year of commercial service to combine government revenue, infrastructure sales and consumer connectivity.
Wisniewski said government could contribute "probably as much as half" of the first-year revenue target, with infrastructure revenue continuing alongside the ramp of commercial service.
The company is already expanding beyond direct-to-device connectivity. Management sees potential "multi-billion-dollar annual-plus revenue opportunities" across government and defense applications, including radar, secure communications, emergency response, IoT and space-based AI edge computing.
That broader opportunity is important because AST SpaceMobile isn’t simply trying to sell satellite phone coverage. It is trying to build a platform that can support multiple businesses on the same space infrastructure.
For investors, the next milestone is therefore not simply another successful SpaceX launch. It is whether AST SpaceMobile can turn a growing BlueBird constellation into commercial service — and eventually into the nearly $1 billion annual revenue run rate management still expects.
SpaceX can help get the satellites there. AST SpaceMobile still has to turn them into a business.
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Key Takeaways ASTS targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027 as production ramps toward six per month.Scaled beta is targeted for later in 2026, with roughly 25 satellites enabling about half-day U.S. coverage.Three U.S. government awards carry more than $100 million of funded near-term value expected in 2026 and 2027. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 call to sharpen the timeline for network deployment and beta service while expanding its government ambitions. CFO Andrew Johnson said the company targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027.
ASTS reported second-quarter 2026 loss of 44 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. The company’s second-quarter revenues were $31.5 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.1 million by 7.60%. Executive VP, CFO and chief legal officer Andrew Johnson nevertheless maintained full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.
ASTS Builds Toward the 45-Satellite ThresholdFounder, chairman and CEO Abel Avellan said ASTS has 13 spacecraft in orbit, with BlueBirds 14 through 16 nearing shipment and BlueBirds 17 through 46 in production or assembly.
CEO Abel Avellan said production is ramping toward six fully assembled satellites per month. CFO Andrew Johnson tied that cadence to the target of approximately 45 BlueBirds in orbit by early 2027.
President and chief strategy officer Scott Wisniewski said scaled beta capability is targeted for later in 2026. In Q&A, he said roughly 25 satellites would provide about half-day U.S. coverage.
AST SpaceMobile Expands Its Spectrum ReachCEO Abel Avellan said AST SpaceMobile is building toward roughly 100 MHz of spectrum access in the United States and more than 60 MHz globally, combining MNO partner and controlled MSS spectrum.
CEO Abel Avellan said the platform can tune about 1,150 MHz across low- and mid-band spectrum. Its ASIC is in full production and designed for up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite.
CEO Abel Avellan said the ASIC should nearly double the 98.9 Mbps peak data speed demonstrated on Block 1 BlueBirds, with further user-experience gains targeted through AI-enabled spectrum management.
ASTS Retains Its Full-Year Revenue OutlookCFO Andrew Johnson said revenue should rise sequentially in each quarter of 2026, with the full year weighted toward the fourth quarter. Gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones remain core drivers.
CFO Andrew Johnson kept the $150 million to $200 million full-year range and cited potential upside from initial commercial service revenues.
For the third quarter, CFO Andrew Johnson guided adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues to $105 million to $115 million and capital expenditures to $350 million to $425 million.
AST SpaceMobile Broadens Government OpportunityPresident Scott Wisniewski said three recent U.S. government awards carry more than $100 million of funded near-term value expected during 2026 and 2027, extending work from development toward larger operational programs.
CEO Abel Avellan highlighted the preliminary J-LEO selection with Rakuten, valued at up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital, pending approvals and final agreements.
In investor Q&A, President Scott Wisniewski said the government opportunity could begin scaling in 2027 toward a recurring multibillion-dollar annual opportunity across communications, radar and other applications.
ASTS Q&A Tests the 2027 Revenue RampA William Blair analyst asked about 2027 revenues. President Scott Wisniewski reiterated the goal of approaching $1 billion in the first full year of commercial service and said government could contribute as much as half of next year’s revenues.
A Cantor Fitzgerald analyst pressed on the components. President Scott Wisniewski said gateway revenues should exceed $100 million, while commercial service revenues should begin when service starts and then ramp.
A BofA Securities analyst focused on launch capacity. President Scott Wisniewski said ASTS has 10 launches booked with two providers and is targeting an average cadence of every month or two.
AST SpaceMobile Keeps Execution at the CenterCEO Abel Avellan centered his message on converting manufacturing scale, spectrum access and MNO relationships into network availability. AST SpaceMobile now has more than 60 MNO partners covering over three billion subscribers.
CFO Andrew Johnson paired that rollout with elevated investment while holding the 2026 revenue target. The deployment schedule and fourth-quarter-weighted revenue ramp remain key second-half milestones.
President Scott Wisniewski emphasized government demand and commercial activation. Near-term execution centers on satellites, gateways, beta readiness and contracted program milestones.
ASTS Rank and Style Scores Stay MixedASTS carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Value Score of F, Growth Score of F, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of F. Under the Zacks Style Score framework, A and B are stronger grades, and top-ranked stocks paired with A or B Style Scores are the preferred combinations. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
For potential near-term performance, this profile is less favorable than those preferred Rank-and-Style pairings. The Zacks Rank can change as earnings estimates are revised after the just-reported results, so the signal should be viewed as current rather than fixed.
AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS) reported a wider-than-expected adjusted loss and revenue below analyst estimates for the second quarter, while the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and continued to expand its satellite network.
The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.77 per share for the quarter ended June 30, compared with analyst estimates for a loss of about $0.26 to $0.32 per share.
Revenue rose to $31.5 million from about $15.8 million in the first quarter, but came in below expectations of roughly $35 million.
AST SpaceMobile attributed second-quarter revenue to gateway deliveries and milestones met under US government programs.
Total operating expenses were $329.1 million in the quarter, up $165 million from $164.1 million in the first quarter. The increase included a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion, along with higher general and administrative costs, cost of revenues, engineering services costs, depreciation and amortization, and research and development costs.
Adjusted operating expenses increased to $119.1 million from $91.2 million in the first quarter. Excluding adjusted cost of revenues, adjusted operating expenses were $95.9 million, compared with $79.8 million in the prior quarter.
AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.
The company said it has signed partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators globally, collectively covering more than 3 billion subscribers.
Its revenue backlog has increased to approximately $1.30 billion in aggregate contracted revenue with commercial partners and contract awards with the US government.
AST SpaceMobile also said it had 13 spacecraft in orbit following the recent launch of BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13. The company said BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 are being prepared for shipment, with production continuing through BlueBird 46.
The company said it is preparing to initiate beta services with select strategic partners as it expands its constellation.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile traded up 1.5% post-earnings.
AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are trading higher Tuesday, reversing an initial decline after the company reported second-quarter results Monday after the market closed.
AST SpaceMobile stock is building positive momentum. Why is ASTS stock trading higher? Q2 Results Miss Estimates; Backlog Grows to $1.3BAST SpaceMobile reported an adjusted loss of 35 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of a 28-cent loss. In addition, the company reported revenue of $31.52 million, missing the consensus estimate of $34.977 million.
Revenue backlog increased to approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue, spanning commercial partners and contract awards with the U.S. government.
“AST SpaceMobile’s differentiated technology platform and deep intellectual property portfolio, partner-first mobile network operator strategy, vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities, and comprehensive spectrum strategy are foundational to the space-based cellular broadband market we invented,” said Abel Avellan, AST SpaceMobile’s Chairman and CEO.
FY GuidanceAST SpaceMobile reaffirmed its fiscal-year revenue outlook of between $150 million and $200 million, versus the $168.88 million consensus estimate.
Analyst ReactionCantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield maintained an Overweight rating on AST SpaceMobile and raised the price target from $80 to $90.
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AST SpaceMobile Shares Trade HigherASTS Price Action: At the time of publication, AST SpaceMobile shares are trading 3.08% higher at $70.88, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is rated a speculative 'Buy' as revenue begins to scale and commercial service nears, despite a Q2 miss. Q2 revenue reached $31.5M, up sharply year-over-year, but losses remain substantial and SpaceMobile service revenue has not yet commenced. Backlog stands at $1.2B–$1.3B with over 60 mobile network operator partnerships, supporting a robust future revenue pipeline.
AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) on Monday reported downbeat second-quarter results.
AST SpaceMobile reported an adjusted loss of 35 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of a 28-cent loss. In addition, the company reported revenue of $31.52 million, missing the consensus estimate of $34.977 million.
"AST SpaceMobile’s differentiated technology platform and deep intellectual property portfolio, partner-first mobile network operator strategy, vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities, and comprehensive spectrum strategy are foundational to the space-based cellular broadband market we invented," said Abel Avellan, AST SpaceMobile’s Chairman and CEO.
AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed its fiscal-year revenue outlook of between $150 million and $200 million, versus the $168.88 million consensus estimate.
AST SpaceMobile shares gained 1.8% to $69.96 in pre-market trading.
These analysts made changes to their price targets on AST SpaceMobile following earnings announcement.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield maintained the stock with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $80 to $90. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintained the stock with an Overweight rating and lowered the price target from $100 to $98. Considering buying ASTS stock? Here’s what analysts think:
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Oklo (NYSE: OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) just gave investors two very different views of what an early-stage AI infrastructure bet looks like.
Oklo posted its first-ever quarterly revenue of $1.21 million. AST SpaceMobile printed $31.52 million alongside a nine-figure launch loss. Both stories are about building infrastructure the AI era needs, but the pacing could not be more different.
Groves Goes Critical While BB7 Weighs on the Sky Oklo’s quarter was defined by an operational milestone, not the income statement. The Groves reactor achieved first criticality in under a year, a moment retail investors amplified across r/stocks, r/stockmarket, and r/investing at a bullish sentiment score of 72.
The revenue beat versus a $0.12 million consensus mattered less than proof the Aurora program is moving from paper to power. The EPS miss of -$0.28 against a -$0.16 estimate did dampen enthusiasm, though.
AST SpaceMobile’s quarter looked heavier. Revenue missed by 8.36% and the GAAP loss came in at -$0.77 versus a -$0.29 consensus, a 168.01% shortfall driven by a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion tied to the BB7 launch incident. Yet the network keeps expanding.
CEO Abel Avellan told investors, “our space-based cellular broadband network has now grown to 13 spacecraft in orbit, each the largest ever in low Earth orbit”, with BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 ready to ship.
Business Driver OKLO ASTS Latest Quarter Revenue $1.21M (first ever) $31.52M Cash Position $97.13M $2.29B Contracted Backlog ~14 GW pipeline (mostly LOIs) ~$1.30B Ground-Based Atoms vs. Orbital Antennas Oklo sells electrons. Its Aurora powerhouse design expanded from 50 MW to 75 MW to court hyperscalers, and the anchor deal is a 12 GW master power agreement with Switch.
CEO Jacob DeWitte framed the moment plainly: “The world is catching up to what we’ve known all along: nuclear power is essential to a clean, dependable, and scalable energy future.” Oklo builds, owns, and operates the reactors, which lengthens the cash-out cycle but keeps long-term economics inside the house.
AST SpaceMobile sells connectivity minutes, or eventually will. Its 60+ MNO partners cover 3+ billion mobile subscribers, with 3,000 digital cells activated across Continental United States from seven gateways.
The Block 2 satellite roadmap targets peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps. Government work also matters here, with aggregate awards exceeding $125 million for national security applications.
The Real Test Sits in 2027 For Oklo, I am watching whether the NRC’s combined license application stays on schedule and whether the late 2027 to early 2028 first-power target holds. The stock is down 38% year to date, so patience is being tested.
For ASTS, the beta service launch and the pace toward 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027 will decide whether the $150 million to $200 million full-year revenue guide is a floor or a ceiling.
Why I Lean Toward ASTS for This Stage of the Cycle If I have to pick one today, I lean ASTS. The $2.29 billion cash pile and $1.30 billion backlog give me a clearer bridge to commercialization, and the BB7 charge is a one-time bruise rather than a broken thesis.
Oklo interests me more as a longer-dated option. The Groves criticality was a genuine tell, but zero commercial revenue and a 2027 first-power target ask for a lot of faith. For a defensive investor, neither fits. For someone willing to underwrite hardware risk on a multi-year horizon, both can work, just not with the same conviction.
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Key Takeaways ASTS Q2 revenues surged to $31.5 million on gateway deliveries and government contracts.ASTS' Product revenues rose to $24.4M, while Services revenues reached $7.09M on contract milestones.ASTS posted a 44-cent adjusted loss as operating expenses rose, despite $2.29 billion in cash. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) reported lackluster second-quarter 2026 results, with both top and bottom lines missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The company reported strong year-over-year revenue growth, driven by gateway deliveries and U.S. government contracts. It continued to expand satellite production and partnerships and advance its network deployment. However, higher operating and launch costs continued to weigh on its bottom line.
Net IncomeOn a GAAP basis, the company recorded a net loss of $230.9 million or a loss of 77 cents per share compared with a net loss of $99.4 million or a loss of 41 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Despite healthy top-line growth, higher total operating expenses pressured the bottom line.
Excluding non-recurring items, non-GAAP net loss for the reported quarter was 44 cents per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents.
RevenuesQuarterly revenues surged to $31.5 million from $1.16 million in the year-ago quarter, driven by solid growth in both Product and Service segments. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.1 million.
In the second quarter, Product revenues increased to $24.4 million from $0.05 million, primarily driven by the delivery of commercial gateway equipment to Mobile Network Operator partners. Services revenues also increased to $7.09 million from $1.11 million in the prior-year quarter, reflecting increased revenue recognized from U.S. government contracts and the achievement of related contractual milestones.
Other DetailsIn the June quarter, total operating expenses rose to $329.1 million from $74 million in the year-ago quarter. This was due to increased general and administrative costs and engineering services expenses. Adjusted operating expenses for the second quarter were $119.1 million.
Cash Flow & LiquidityDuring the first six months of 2026, the company utilized $145.2 million of cash for operating activities compared with a cash utilization of $72 million in the year-ago period. As of June 30, 2026, it had $2.29 billion in cash and cash equivalents with $2.96 billion in long-term debt.
Zacks RankAST SpaceMobile currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Upcoming ReleasesKeysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Aug. 18. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.46 per share, suggesting growth of 43.02% from the year-ago reported figure.
Keysight has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 19.44%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 9.46% in the last four reported quarters.
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings Aug. 19. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.33 per share, implying growth of 62.44% from the year-ago reported figure.
Analog Devices has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 31.04%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 5.48% in the last four reported quarters.
Workday, Inc. (WDAY - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on Aug. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.63 per share, implying growth of 16% from the year-ago reported figure.
Workday has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 17.48%. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 7.22% in the last four reported quarters.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.44 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.28. This compares to a loss of $0.41 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -57.14%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.23 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.66, delivering a surprise of -186.96%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.
AST SpaceMobile, which belongs to the Zacks Wireless Equipment industry, posted revenues of $31.52 million for the quarter ended June 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.65%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.16 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
AST SpaceMobile shares have lost about 1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13.3%.
What's Next for AST SpaceMobile?While AST SpaceMobile has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for AST SpaceMobile was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.25 on $50.54 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.38 on $163.68 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Wireless Equipment is currently in the top 42% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -39.8%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Aviat Networks, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $109.58 million, down 5% from the year-ago quarter.
AST SpaceMobile’s Latest BlueBird Launch Raises the Stakes Ahead of Q2 EarningsAST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $31.5 million and reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, as the company continued to build satellites, deploy mobile-network infrastructure and pursue government applications for its space-based cellular broadband network.
The company said quarterly revenue more than doubled from the first quarter, driven primarily by commercial gateway deliveries and milestone achievements under U.S. government contracts. President Scott Wisniewski said AST delivered against 13 gateways for seven customers across five continents during the quarter.
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AST SpaceMobile Sets Launch Date Ahead of Key Q2 Earnings TestManagement said it expects revenue to increase sequentially through 2026, though CFO and Chief Legal Officer Andy Johnson said results will likely be weighted toward the fourth quarter because of the timing of equipment sales, contract awards and government milestones.
Satellite deployment and manufacturing plans Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan said BlueBird 14 through 16 were in final testing and nearing completion, while BlueBird 17 through 46 were in various stages of production and assembly. Johnson said BlueBird 14 through 16 were expected to be ready to ship shortly.
Amazon’s Satellite Push Raises the Stakes for SpaceX and AST SpaceMobileAST SpaceMobile is targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027, which management said could enable continuous service across key markets including the U.S., Europe and Japan. The company also said it expects to begin consumer-focused beta capabilities later in 2026, though the timing and structure of any customer rollout will be determined with carrier partners.
The company is aiming for a manufacturing cadence of six fully assembled satellites per month. Avellan said AST currently has more than 500,000 square feet of manufacturing and operations space globally and recently announced plans for an additional 400,000-square-foot facility in Midland, Texas. Once completed, the company expects its global manufacturing and operations footprint to exceed 1 million square feet, including more than 900,000 square feet in the U.S.
Wisniewski said the company has 10 launches booked with two launch providers, excluding Blue Origin, and is targeting an average launch cadence of roughly every month or two. He said AST was not relying on Blue Origin in its current planning assumptions, despite the provider’s progress in addressing a prior launch anomaly.
Johnson reiterated AST’s estimated average capital cost of $21 million to $23 million per satellite for a constellation of more than 90 BlueBird satellites. That estimate includes direct materials, labor and launch costs, excluding certain initial satellites used for validation.
Commercial partners, spectrum and network infrastructure AST said its mobile network operator ecosystem has grown to more than 60 partners serving more than 3 billion subscribers collectively. Its named partners include AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, stc Group, Bell Canada and Telus.
Avellan said the company’s network is designed to extend existing terrestrial cellular networks rather than compete with mobile operators. AST is preparing for beta service in selected markets and said it has roughly 50 gateways globally in various stages of completion, installation and planning.
In the U.S., AST said it has deployed more than 3,000 low-band cellular cells and expects to deploy the remaining infrastructure needed to cover roughly 5,600 cellular cells nationwide during 2026.
Management also emphasized its spectrum position. Avellan said AST’s satellite technology can tune approximately 1,150 megahertz of low-band and mid-band spectrum globally, with C-band capability planned for the future. The company said it is working toward about 100 megahertz of spectrum access in the U.S. through a combination of partner-provided spectrum and spectrum it controls.
During the analyst question session, Avellan said the company’s current “Micron” satellite systems are focused on low-band capabilities, while production of mid-band capability is expected to begin later in 2026 for launches beginning early in 2027. He said the company is developing a third-generation ASIC architecture incorporating L-band, mobile satellite service spectrum, mid-band and C-band capabilities, while continuing to use different phased arrays for separate spectrum blocks.
Government backlog and expanded applications AST reported an approximately $1.3 billion revenue backlog consisting of aggregated contracted revenue, partner agreements and U.S. government contract awards. Wisniewski said government represented a minority of the total backlog, although recent additions were primarily government-related.
The company said it received three U.S. government contract awards with funded near-term value of more than $100 million expected during 2026 and 2027. Wisniewski said AST expects the government opportunity to scale into what he described as a recurring multibillion-dollar annual opportunity beginning in 2027, though the company did not provide further details on the awards.
Management highlighted applications beyond direct-to-device communications, including radar, secure communications, emergency response, Internet of Things services and AI edge computing. Avellan said radar applications in the U.S. use government spectrum and rely on the company’s large phased-array antennas and satellite sensitivity.
AST also discussed a preliminary selection tied to Japan’s low-Earth-orbit satellite infrastructure development project, or J-LEO. The company said the project, subject to government approvals and final agreements with Rakuten, could provide up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. Avellan said Japanese-flagged satellites would use the same architecture as the broader constellation and could be deployed globally.
Spending and liquidity Non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses totaled $119.1 million in the second quarter, up from $91.2 million in the first quarter. Excluding adjusted cost of revenues, expenses were $95.9 million, near the high end of the company’s prior $85 million to $95 million guidance range.
Capital expenditures were approximately $610 million, compared with $257 million in the first quarter, largely reflecting launch-contract payments and satellite materials and labor. For the third quarter, AST forecast adjusted operating expenses excluding cost of revenue of $105 million to $115 million and capital expenditures of $350 million to $425 million.
In July, AST completed a $1.15 billion convertible senior notes offering due in 2034, carrying a 1.625% coupon. Johnson said that, including the offering’s gross proceeds, cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled more than $3.7 billion on a pro forma basis as of June 30.
About AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS)AST SpaceMobile is a U.S.-based aerospace company developing a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect standard mobile phones and other devices directly to satellites. The company's core proposition is “space-to-cell” service: operating a constellation of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites equipped with large, high-power phased-array antennas to provide wide-area mobile broadband without requiring users to buy specialized terminals or handset modifications.
AST SpaceMobile designs, builds and operates satellite payloads and supporting ground infrastructure.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
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