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Space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS just had its best single-day stock performance since June.

On Wednesday, Sept. 2. ASTS’s nearly 12% gain was welcome news to investors who had endured a brutal slide since shares of the Midland, Texas-based company hit their all-time high (ATH) on May 28.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Friday, September, 4, 2026

As the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX competitor continues to work its way back toward its ATH, shareholders who have grown accustomed to the ups and downs of the rapidly scaling and highly volatile stock just got a shot in the arm.

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A New Tailwind Ahead of AST SpaceMobile’s Next BlueBird Satellite DeploymentThroughout 2026, AST SpaceMobile’s successful (and less successful) low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellite launches have served as catalysts.

The next cohort slated to join its LEO constellation is nearing completion. BlueBird 14 is ready for launch, while BlueBirds 15 and 16 are undergoing final preparations.

While no launch date has been announced, based on prior schedules—including the Aug. 5 deployment of Bluebirds 11, 12, and 13—that could happen at some point in October. But the Sept. 2 ASTS rally was not rooted in the company’s launch schedule.

AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$86.58
37.15% Upside

Hold
Based on 13 Analyst Ratings

Current Price$63.13High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$86.58Low Forecast$50.80AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details

Rather, AST SpaceMobile took off on Wednesday thanks to Berenberg’s Michael Filatov initiating coverage, which was extremely bullish.

Filatov not only assigned ASTS a Buy rating, but he also gave the stock a 12-month price target of $92—a roughly 47% potential gain from Wednesday's share price—citing AST SpaceMobile’s hard-to-replicate positions in the space-based telecom industry.

ASTS carries a consensus Hold rating with just six of 13 analysts currently covering the stock assigning it a Buy rating, alongside an average 12-month price target of nearly 39%.

The announcement of initiated coverage and an aggressive price target was enough to make AST SpaceMobile the big winner among space stocks on the day.

Filatov also initiated coverage of Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB and Planet Labs PBC NYSE: PL, assigning both Buy ratings, but neither was able to blast off quite like ASTS did.

As AST SpaceMobile Nears Commercial Service, Numerous Challenges RemainAST SpaceMobile Today

$62.48 +0.36 (+0.57%)

As of 01:00 PM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.

$36.08▼

$133.86$86.58

Filatov noted that AST SpaceMobile is "the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones," adding that its more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships cover roughly three billion subscribers.

Those strategic agreements include pacts with communication services sector mainstays AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNF, as well as a strategic relationship with real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT and the U.S. federal government.

However, while the firm expects to deploy direct-to-device (D2D) commercial services beginning in the first half of 2027, that goal comes with significant caveats.

AST SpaceMobile still faces regulatory hurdles before it can begin commercial D2D service. In August, the FCC granted the company a 30-day authorization, running through Sept. 12, to test D2D connectivity on up to 100 off-the-shelf devices using 800 MHz spectrum.

Meanwhile, a series of weak earnings continues to be an obstacle. AST SpaceMobile missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as spending rose sharply to support its satellite buildout, following a galactic Q1 miss.

Despite reaffirming its 2026 revenue outlook and reporting a backlog of about $1.3 billion, expanding at the scale and speed at which AST SpaceMobile is requires the company to spend its cash reserves at an alarming rate.

Analysts forecast a full-year cash burn rate in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, driven primarily by R&D, AST SpaceMobile’s vertically integrated BlueBird satellite production, and costly rocket launch service fees, of which SpaceX charges around $55 million to $65 million per launch.

To address that expense, the company is exploring a partnership or potential acquisition of a launch services provider. In a Form 8-K filing on July 15, AST SpaceMobile noted that its $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2034 was intended to “further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers.”

However, the offering carries concerns about shareholder dilution. AST SpaceMobile ultimately raised $1.15 billion through the convertible notes, which carry an initial conversion price of $79.57 per share. However, the company also entered into capped call transactions designed to reduce potential dilution, resulting in what AST says is an effective conversion price of $149.20 and effective dilution of less than 2%.

Wall Street Sentiment Remains MixedWhile the stock remains highly volatile with a current beta of 2.74 and short interest at 18.67% of the float, or $4.08 billion worth of ASTS shares, institutional investors are buying the stock in rapid succession.

Over the past 12 months, inflows from 384 institutional buyers have totalled more than $5 billion, while outflows from 111 institutional sellers have been limited to just over $400 million. At 60.95%, institutional ownership is still below average, but AST SpaceMobile has seen buying accelerate since Q2 2025.

AST SpaceMobile continues to work its way toward its target of 45 BlueBird satellites in LEO by early 2027. A company press release confirmed that it is well on its way to achieving that goal, with “production advancing through BlueBird satellite 42” as it continues to scale its constellation.

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Pumpkin spice latte season is upon us, and perhaps no company is looking forward to turning the page on summer more than Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS.

Since the space-based cellular broadband network provider’s stock hit its all-time high on May 28, it has fallen nearly 54%.

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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Monday, August, 31, 2026

As the company continues to build out its constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites, numerous headwinds and tailwinds could work against it and or in its favor. But the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX competitor will have to overcome some challenges—and embrace certain catalysts—as it aims to work its way back into investors’ good graces.

Concerns Mount Over AST SpaceMobile’s Burn Rate, Dilution, and Heavy Insider SellingAST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$85.98
49.70% Upside

Hold
Based on 12 Analyst Ratings

Current Price$57.43High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$85.98Low Forecast$50.80AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details

Like any company expanding at the scale of AST SpaceMobile, the speed at which it spends its cash reserves can be alarming.

Those outlays are necessary in order to achieve objectives. But that doesn’t quell critics’ concerns.

Analysts are forecasting a full-year cash burn rate between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.

That spending is being driven by R&D, vertically integrated BlueBird satellite production, and costly rocket launch service fees, of which SpaceX charges around $55 million to $65 million per.

To address that last expense, the company is exploring a partnership or potential acquisition of a launch services provider, but that has come with strings attached. In a Form 8-K filing on July 15, AST SpaceMobile noted that its $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due 2034 was intended to “further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers.”

As ambitious as that is, the $1 billion offering raises the specter of shareholder dilution.

AST SpaceMobile ultimately raised $1.15 billion through the convertible notes, which carry an initial conversion price of $79.57 per share. However, the company also entered into capped call transactions designed to reduce potential dilution, resulting in what AST says is an effective conversion price of $149.20 and effective dilution of less than 2%.

Another headwind comes in the form of heavy insider selling. Over the trailing 12 months, insiders have liquidated more than $450 million worth of ASTS, while only buying $187,240 worth of the stock, all of which came in Q4 2025. In Q1 and Q2, there were zero buys.

The company has also strung together a chain of disappointing earnings. Most recently, AST SpaceMobile’s Q2 report on Aug. 10 resulted in its sixth consecutive earnings per share (EPS) miss, and its seventh revenue miss in eight quarters.

EPS of negative 77 cents missed the consensus estimate of negative 32 cents by a wide margin, while revenue of $31.52 million came in below expectations of $34.53 million.

Concerningly, Q2 adjusted operating expenses—excluding cost of revenues—rose to $95.9 million, capital expenditures reached approximately $610 million. Q3 adjusted operating expenses are expected to increase to a range of $105 million to $115 million.

A Reversal Will Largely Depend on the Success of AST SpaceMobile’s FCC Test and Its PartnershipsAST SpaceMobile Today

$58.35 +0.30 (+0.52%)

As of 01:40 PM Eastern

$36.08▼

$133.86$85.98

The rollout of AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-device (D2D) network depends in part on regulatory approvals and testing as well as the roughly 60 strategic partnerships it already has in place.

Earlier in August, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted the company a temporary 30-day authorization to test D2D connectivity using 800 MHz spectrum on up to 100 commercially available devices running through Sept. 12.

That testing comes amid a broader push by major U.S. carriers to expand satellite-based D2D coverage. On May 14, AT&T NYSE: T, T-Mobile NASDAQ: TMUS, and Verizon NYSE: VZ announced an agreement in principle to form a joint venture that aims to expand satellite-based D2D wireless coverage in the United States by pooling spectrum resources, improving D2D capacity, and creating a more unified platform for satellite providers. Among the three carriers, currently only T-Mobile uses Starlink to fill coverage gaps, while AT&T and Verizon have agreements in place with AST SpaceMobile.

The company also has an agreement in place with Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNF

In its Aug. 10 update, AST said the Rakuten-AST joint venture had been preliminarily selected by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for the J-LEO initiative, with a total expected value of up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. Rakuten has said it is targeting the launch of domestic service in Q4 2026.

While the stock remains highly volatile with a current beta of 2.75 and short interest at 18.67% of the float, or $4.08 billion worth of ASTS shares, institutional investors taking the long view are buoying the stock. Over the past 12 months, inflows from institutional buyers have totaled more than $5 billion, while institutional sellers’ outflows have been limited to less than $400 million.

AST SpaceMobile continues to work its way toward its target of 45 BlueBird satellites in LEO by early 2027. A company press release confirmed that it is well on its way to achieving that goal, with “production advancing through BlueBird satellite 42” as it continues to scale its constellation.

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Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile launched six BlueBirds in 50 days, expanding its in-orbit network to 13 spacecraft.ASTS targets about 45 satellites by early 2027, with 45-60 needed for continuous service in key markets.AST SpaceMobile reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M, with revenue weighted toward Q4. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) has accelerated BlueBird deployment as it moves toward beta service and broader commercialization. Six satellites launched within 50 days lifted its in-orbit network to 13 spacecraft.

The investment question is whether that pace can support meaningful 2026 revenues while the company manages launch risk, network activation and the spending needed to reach continuous coverage.

ASTS Adds Six BlueBirds in Just 50 DaysBlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 launched in June, followed by BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 in August. The newer satellites use approximately 2,400-square-foot communications arrays and are designed to provide direct broadband connectivity to standard smartphones.

The six launches expanded AST SpaceMobile’s network to 13 in-orbit spacecraft. The company expects its newer Block 2 satellites to approach 200 Mbps in peak data rates, versus nearly 100 Mbps demonstrated by the initial Block 1 satellites.

AST SpaceMobile Targets 45 Satellites by Early 2027BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 were ready to ship around the second-quarter update, while BlueBirds 17 through 46 were in various stages of production and assembly. AST SpaceMobile targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027.

Management estimates that roughly 45 to 60 satellites could provide continuous service across key markets. That target makes manufacturing cadence and dependable access to launch capacity central to the company’s expansion plan.

ASTS Links Deployment to Commercial ActivationAST SpaceMobile is preparing beta service with selected mobile network operators during 2026. It has activated about 3,000 digital cells across the continental United States, while nearly 50 gateways are in various stages of completion, installation and planning.

Carrier relationships provide a path from satellite coverage to customer service. AT&T Inc. (T - Free Report) has a definitive commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile through 2030 for space-based broadband direct to everyday cell phones. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Free Report) has also partnered with AST SpaceMobile to expand direct-to-cellular coverage, including use of 850-megahertz spectrum.

AST SpaceMobile Has Revenue Milestones AheadManagement reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. Second-quarter revenues were $31.5 million, driven primarily by commercial gateway deliveries and U.S. government service milestones.

AST SpaceMobile also reported approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue agreements and U.S. government awards. Management expects 2026 revenues to build sequentially and be weighted toward the fourth quarter, with potential initial commercial service revenues adding to gateway and government contributions.

ASTS Cannot Afford Repeated Launch SetbacksBlueBird 7 was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit in April 2026 and later de-orbited because the altitude was insufficient for sustained operations. AST SpaceMobile recorded a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion in the second quarter.

The company still depends on repeated successful launches to reach approximately 45 satellites by early 2027. Additional delays or failures could postpone continuous service across key markets and shift revenue realization, directly linking launch reliability to the commercialization timetable.

ASTS Rating Signals Keep Expectations in CheckThe launch cadence is advancing, but meaningful commercial progress still depends on turning a larger constellation into reliable service and recurring revenues. Government contracts and gateway deliveries support the near-term revenue plan, while broader service activation remains an execution test.

ASTS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a VGM Score of F, Value Score of F, Growth Score of F and Momentum Score of D. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. A Hold rank can support maintaining an existing position, while the weaker Style Scores indicate less favorable value, growth and momentum characteristics than higher-scoring stocks. The signals favor measured expectations as deployment continues.

Key Takeaways AST SpaceMobile missed Q2 estimates, with a 44-cent non-GAAP loss per share and $31.5 million in revenue.ASTS' operating expenses rose to $329.1 million from $74 million as network buildout accelerated.ASTS' 2026 and 2027 loss estimates widened 212.9% and 276.5% over the past year, signaling skepticism. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) reported soft second-quarter 2026 results, with both the top and bottom lines missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Non-GAAP net loss for the reported quarter was 44 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. Quarterly revenues of $31.5 million also missed the consensus estimate of $34.1 million.

ASTS Plagued by High Operating CostsElevated spending overshadowed the company’s progress in satellite deployment and commercial partnerships during the quarter. The bottom-line miss primarily reflected AST SpaceMobile’s rapidly expanding cost base as it accelerates the buildout of its space-based cellular broadband network. Total operating expenses surged to $329.1 million from $74 million in the year-ago quarter.

Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation, higher interest rates, capital market volatility and geopolitical conflicts, have adversely impacted AST SpaceMobile. These have led to continued fluctuations in satellite material prices, resulting in increased capital costs and pressure on the company’s financial performance. Due to high infrastructure setup costs and research and development expenses for highly sophisticated satellite technology, AST SpaceMobile expects significant expenditures in the coming months to build and launch the next crop of satellites, in line with its expansion plans to serve the full spectrum of U.S. subscribers.

The combination of the earnings miss and rising expenditures likely reinforced investor concerns over how quickly AST SpaceMobile can translate its technological and deployment progress into healthy recurring revenues and improving profitability. The miss is particularly noteworthy given ASTS’ elevated growth expectations. The company is transitioning from a development-stage satellite operator toward scaled commercial service, making the pace at which satellite deployments convert into revenues an increasingly important metric for investors.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASTS’ Long-Term Growth Story Remains IntactDespite the quarterly blip, AST SpaceMobile is reportedly on track to deploy approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027. The company has already deployed 13 commercial satellites (dubbed BlueBird) in LEO, marking a key advancement in developing a space-based mobile network infrastructure. BlueBird 14, 15 and 16 satellites are currently prepared and scheduled to ship for launch, while BlueBird satellites 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.

Utilizing large phased array antennas measuring approximately 2,400 square feet, AST SpaceMobile's technology is backed by more than 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims. This design aims to deliver global cellular coverage by eliminating dead zones and providing space-based connectivity to areas without broadband service. By connecting directly to standard smartphones at broadband speeds, these advanced phased arrays eliminate the need for special equipment, enhancing current mobile networks while ensuring seamless use of existing mobile phones. The SpaceMobile service is compatible with all major brands available in the market and connects directly to everyday mobile phones.

Price PerformanceAST SpaceMobile has surged 53.2% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 34%. It has also outperformed its peers like Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW - Free Report) and Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL - Free Report) over this period. While Aviat has declined 1.2%, Comtech is down 18.4% over the same period. 

One-Year ASTS Stock Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimate Revision Trend of ASTSThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile's loss for 2026 and 2027 has widened 212.9% and 276.5%, respectively, to $2.19 and 90 cents per share over the past year. The negative estimate revision depicts pessimism about the stock’s growth potential as investors remain skeptical about the success of its business model.  

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

End NoteThe collaboration with leading carriers is seen as a pathway to unlocking the potential of space-based cellular broadband, promising seamless, reliable service across the continental United States and Canada. The successful launch of the Bluebird satellites will likely transform network connectivity and help bridge the digital divide, significantly expanding its global presence and enhancing AST SpaceMobile’s capabilities in providing ubiquitous connectivity.

However, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), AST SpaceMobile appears to be treading in the middle of the road, and investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines until greater visibility emerges regarding the commercial-service ramp and the path toward improving operating leverage. While ASTS’ long-term opportunity in direct-to-device satellite connectivity remains compelling, the second-quarter miss shows that considerable execution will be required before that opportunity is fully reflected in its financial performance.

The downtrend in estimate revisions further portrays skepticism about the business model. Consequently, it might not be prudent to bet on the stock at the moment. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways ASTS targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027 as production ramps toward six per month.Scaled beta is targeted for later in 2026, with roughly 25 satellites enabling about half-day U.S. coverage.Three U.S. government awards carry more than $100 million of funded near-term value expected in 2026 and 2027. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 call to sharpen the timeline for network deployment and beta service while expanding its government ambitions. CFO Andrew Johnson said the company targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027.

ASTS reported second-quarter 2026 loss of 44 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents. The company’s second-quarter revenues were $31.5 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.1 million by 7.60%. Executive VP, CFO and chief legal officer Andrew Johnson nevertheless maintained full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.

ASTS Builds Toward the 45-Satellite ThresholdFounder, chairman and CEO Abel Avellan said ASTS has 13 spacecraft in orbit, with BlueBirds 14 through 16 nearing shipment and BlueBirds 17 through 46 in production or assembly.

CEO Abel Avellan said production is ramping toward six fully assembled satellites per month. CFO Andrew Johnson tied that cadence to the target of approximately 45 BlueBirds in orbit by early 2027.

President and chief strategy officer Scott Wisniewski said scaled beta capability is targeted for later in 2026. In Q&A, he said roughly 25 satellites would provide about half-day U.S. coverage.

AST SpaceMobile Expands Its Spectrum ReachCEO Abel Avellan said AST SpaceMobile is building toward roughly 100 MHz of spectrum access in the United States and more than 60 MHz globally, combining MNO partner and controlled MSS spectrum.

CEO Abel Avellan said the platform can tune about 1,150 MHz across low- and mid-band spectrum. Its ASIC is in full production and designed for up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite.

CEO Abel Avellan said the ASIC should nearly double the 98.9 Mbps peak data speed demonstrated on Block 1 BlueBirds, with further user-experience gains targeted through AI-enabled spectrum management.

ASTS Retains Its Full-Year Revenue OutlookCFO Andrew Johnson said revenue should rise sequentially in each quarter of 2026, with the full year weighted toward the fourth quarter. Gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones remain core drivers.

CFO Andrew Johnson kept the $150 million to $200 million full-year range and cited potential upside from initial commercial service revenues.

For the third quarter, CFO Andrew Johnson guided adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues to $105 million to $115 million and capital expenditures to $350 million to $425 million.

AST SpaceMobile Broadens Government OpportunityPresident Scott Wisniewski said three recent U.S. government awards carry more than $100 million of funded near-term value expected during 2026 and 2027, extending work from development toward larger operational programs.

CEO Abel Avellan highlighted the preliminary J-LEO selection with Rakuten, valued at up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital, pending approvals and final agreements.

In investor Q&A, President Scott Wisniewski said the government opportunity could begin scaling in 2027 toward a recurring multibillion-dollar annual opportunity across communications, radar and other applications.

ASTS Q&A Tests the 2027 Revenue RampA William Blair analyst asked about 2027 revenues. President Scott Wisniewski reiterated the goal of approaching $1 billion in the first full year of commercial service and said government could contribute as much as half of next year’s revenues.

A Cantor Fitzgerald analyst pressed on the components. President Scott Wisniewski said gateway revenues should exceed $100 million, while commercial service revenues should begin when service starts and then ramp.

A BofA Securities analyst focused on launch capacity. President Scott Wisniewski said ASTS has 10 launches booked with two providers and is targeting an average cadence of every month or two.

AST SpaceMobile Keeps Execution at the CenterCEO Abel Avellan centered his message on converting manufacturing scale, spectrum access and MNO relationships into network availability. AST SpaceMobile now has more than 60 MNO partners covering over three billion subscribers.

CFO Andrew Johnson paired that rollout with elevated investment while holding the 2026 revenue target. The deployment schedule and fourth-quarter-weighted revenue ramp remain key second-half milestones.

President Scott Wisniewski emphasized government demand and commercial activation. Near-term execution centers on satellites, gateways, beta readiness and contracted program milestones.

ASTS Rank and Style Scores Stay MixedASTS carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Value Score of F, Growth Score of F, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of F. Under the Zacks Style Score framework, A and B are stronger grades, and top-ranked stocks paired with A or B Style Scores are the preferred combinations. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

For potential near-term performance, this profile is less favorable than those preferred Rank-and-Style pairings. The Zacks Rank can change as earnings estimates are revised after the just-reported results, so the signal should be viewed as current rather than fixed.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.44 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.28. This compares to a loss of $0.41 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -57.14%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.23 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.66, delivering a surprise of -186.96%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.

AST SpaceMobile, which belongs to the Zacks Wireless Equipment industry, posted revenues of $31.52 million for the quarter ended June 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.65%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.16 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

AST SpaceMobile shares have lost about 1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13.3%.

What's Next for AST SpaceMobile?While AST SpaceMobile has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for AST SpaceMobile was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.25 on $50.54 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.38 on $163.68 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Wireless Equipment is currently in the top 42% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.

This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -39.8%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Aviat Networks, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $109.58 million, down 5% from the year-ago quarter.

Live Coverage Updates appear automatically as they are published.

Live Updates Pinned 1 hour ago

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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect AST SpaceMobile to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:30 p.m. ET.

28 minutes ago

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That wraps up our initial coverage of AST SpaceMobile’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

32 minutes ago

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AST SpaceMobile now has more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships collectively covering over 3 billion subscribers worldwide.

This partner-first model could give the company enormous built-in distribution as it begins rolling out direct-to-device broadband services.

AST SpaceMobile’s next-generation Block 2 satellites are designed to deliver peak data speeds approaching 200 Mbps directly to standard, unmodified smartphones.

The company is preparing to launch beta services with select strategic partners in 2026 as its constellation and ground infrastructure continue to expand.

33 minutes ago

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AST SpaceMobile generated $31.5 million in Q2 revenue as the company reached gateway-delivery and government-contract milestones.

Its revenue backlog also expanded to $1.3 billion, more than 41 times the revenue recognized during the quarter. Management maintained its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150-$200 million.

The massive backlog provides greater visibility into AST SpaceMobile’s future revenue opportunity, although the company must still execute a substantial commercial ramp during the second half of the year.

37 minutes ago

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AST SpaceMobile said it continues preparing to launch its space-based cellular broadband beta service during 2026.

The initiative will provide scaled, non-commercial usage through strategic mobile network operator partners in select global markets, with 3,000 digital cells already activated across the continental United States.

The deployment of BlueBird satellites 8 through 13 brought six spacecraft into orbit within 50 days, expanding AST SpaceMobile’s constellation to 13 satellites with around 20,000 square feet of combined aperture hardware.

BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 will be ready to ship shortly, while satellites 17 through 46 are in various stages of production and assembly.

47 minutes ago

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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) just reported earnings, with shares initially down 1% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

Revenue: $31.5 million vs. $34.4 million expected EPS: ($0.77) vs. ($0.29) expected Quick Read:

AST SpaceMobile missed revenue expectations by 8%, while its loss per share was substantially wider than analysts anticipated.

Revenue soared 2,627% year over year, and 114% sequentially.

1 hour ago

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Four specific catalysts could swing the market’s reaction to $ASTS’s earnings tonight beyond the 12% implied move:

BlueBird 7 anomaly fallout: Management disclosed the loss of BB7 on New Glenn in mid-June, with Blue Origin investigating the upper stage. Any schedule slip for the handful of New Glenn-class launches needed to meet the 45-satellite target is unmodeled. Golden Dome timing: RFPs being issued could seed a lumpy government revenue print, with awards expected over the next six months. Non-cash remeasurement: Following Q1’s $88.65M in induced conversion expense, additional warrant and convertible mark-to-market gains tied to the recent rally could distort GAAP EPS. Multi-jurisdiction approvals: Ground integration across 2.9 billion people hinges on regulators in 17 countries. Any commentary on Japan, Saudi Arabia, or EU timing is a live catalyst. 1 hour ago

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Top 5 Analyst Questions Progress toward ~45 BlueBirds in orbit by year-end 2026? Timeline to convert MOUs into definitive contracts across nearly 60 MNO partners? Cash runway after Q2 capex guided to $575M-$650M? Block 2 peak speeds versus Block 1’s 98.9 Mbps benchmark? H2 commercial activation cadence across the U.S., Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the U.K.? Key Topics Management Must Address BlueBird 11-13 August launch readiness and Falcon 9 manifest Government pipeline beyond the $30M SDA HALO prime contract Stock-based comp trajectory after Q1 $55.35M charge Buzzwords to Listen For “Fortress balance sheet,” “launch cadence,” “commercial activation,” “Block 2,” “AI edge computing,” “vertically integrated manufacturing” Red Flags Convertible raise, satellite slippage into 2027, MOU conversion delays, or softer FY26 revenue guidance below $150M Guidance will set the tone tonight for AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS).

1 hour ago

Live

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares currently trade at $68.72, down 4.47% intraday after last week’s 21.97% surge. Analysts’ average price target sits at $80.48.

Here are some key factors to watch ahead of tonight’s Q2 earnings:

KPIs on the Tape BlueBird 11-33 build progress against the 45-satellite year-end target MNO conversions from MOUs across nearly 60 partners Cash burn versus $3.03B liquidity after $261.6M Q1 capex Move Triggers Aug 21 options carry 120,507 call open interest against 70,016 puts, skewing decisively bullish.

Day-of reactions have swung from -11.62% to +8.36% over the past five quarters.

Revenue clearing the $34M bar, with reaffirmed FY guidance and a firm launch cadence, could ignite upside

However, another double miss or a delayed BlueBird timeline reopens downside toward June lows.

1 hour ago

Live

Wall Street is looking past tonight’s -$0.2873 EPS estimate and $34.4M revenue consensus and is much more focused on the company’s $150M-$200M FY2026 revenue guidance.

Management at AST SpaceMobile under CEO Abel Avellan tends to guide aggressively on long-term satellite targets while quarterly revenue stays lumpy, missing consensus in three of the last four quarters.

Investors will be looking for clarity on satellite cadence toward 45 BlueBirds in orbit, MNO conversion across nearly 60 partners, and burn against the $3.03B cash position.

Bullish: Raise FY2026 above $200M, confirm H2 broader commercial activation, or new definitive MNO deals.

Bearish: Cut below $150M, push deployment into 2027, or flag another capital raise. With options pricing a 12% move, the guide sets the tone.

2 hours ago

Live

Bull Case Guidance intact: Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue of $150M-$200M, with roughly half backed by contracted backlog. Deployment momentum: BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 launched on New Glenn in mid-June 2026, targeting ~45 satellites in orbit by year-end. Fortress balance sheet: $3.03B in cash and over $1.2 billion in contracted commitments fund the constellation buildout. Options skew bullish: Aug 14 calls outpace puts 1.99:1, with insider activity net buying. Bear Case Miss streak: Q1 revenue landed -59.72% versus consensus; EPS came in at -$0.66. Widening losses: Q1 net loss hit $191.01M, weighed by $88.65M in induced conversion expense. Cash burn: Q2 capex guided to $575M-$650M, pressuring liquidity. Valuation risk: Shares trade at $69.25 after a 21.97% one-week rip. 2 hours ago

Live

AST SpaceMobile enters tonight’s Q2 earnings with its guidance under intense scrutiny. The company has missed expectations in five consecutive quarters, including a staggering 59.72% revenue shortfall in Q1.

Analysts will be watching management’s plans for satellite deployment. BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 were operational as of June 28, while BlueBirds 11 through 13 are slated for August.

Options markets are pricing in about a 12% post-earnings move, while the company’s recent $1 billion convertible offering adds another layer to the risk-reward setup.

A clean quarter, reaffirmed guidance, and firm BlueBird deployment cadence could send $ASTS higher following tonight’s Q2 earnings report.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) reports Q2 earnings tonight at 4:30 PM ET. This report will be the first update since AST’s BlueBirds 8-10 reached orbit, and the company closed a $1.0 billion convertible.

Deployment Meets Dilution Q1 2026 revenue landed at $14.73 million versus a $36.58 million consensus, while GAAP EPS printed -$0.66 against -$0.2042 expected. The $191.0 million net loss reflected an $88.65 million induced conversion charge and $55.35 million in stock-based comp.

Since that report, shares are down about 12.85%, though the stock is up nearly 10% in the past week. Management ended Q1 with $3.03 billion in cash and reaffirmed $150-$200 million FY2026 revenue guidance, with 2027 guidance approaching $1 billion.

Consensus Estimates Metric Q2 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Guide FY 2027 Outlook Revenue $34.40M vs. $1.16M reported $150M-$200M ~$1B EPS (GAAP) -$0.2873 vs. -$0.41 reported n/a n/a The Q2 revenue bar sits between the $14.74M Q1 revenue and the $54.31M Q4 2025 revenue result. Management framed 2026 as a year for sequential building, so consensus estimates bake in accelerating gateway deliveries and government milestones.

What I’ll Be Watching Tonight I’ll be watching whether the $150M-$200M FY revenue guidance holds after Q1 delivered only $14.7M in revenue. With roughly half of this target already contracted, the back half of the year needs meaningful gateway sales and government milestone recognition to hit the low end.

Analysts will also be focusing on the company’s capex. Q2 guidance was set at $575-$650 million, driven by the timing of launch payments. Paired with the fresh $1.0 billion convertible priced at a $79.57 strike, cash runway looks funded through the 100-satellite buildout, but dilution optics matter.

I’ll also watch BlueBird’s expected cadence. Management targets six satellites per month and 45 in orbit by year-end, with BlueBird’s 11-13 launching in August. Any slippage in this schedule could tighten the 2027 revenue ramp.

MNO conversions are the third pillar. AT&T CEO John Stankey confirmed the service is nearing customer-ready status, and Vodafone Spain and Rakuten’s J-LEO project, worth up to $1 billion, anchor the definitive-agreement pipeline.

Earnings History Quarter EPS Reported EPS Surprise Revenue Surprise Price at Filing Q1 2026 -$0.66 -223.21% -59.72% $74.86 Q4 2025 -$0.26 -30.00% +28.56% $89.90 Q3 2025 -$0.45 -66.85% -33.13% $67.99 Q2 2025 -$0.41 -412.50% -95.29% $51.30 Shares moved +17.7% seven days after the May Q1 report, and options-implied volatility now points to a 12% move tonight.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -1.49%) had a brutal July. Shares of the satellite company fell 33.6% over the month, while the S&P 500 was mostly flat and the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.2%.

Space stocks were hit hard across the board, dragged down by SpaceX's nearly 37% sell off. Rocket Lab fell more than 35%.

But there were direct catalysts at play as well: a $1 billion convertible debt raise, and a filing that pushed the company's 45-satellite rollout from this year into next.

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A billion-dollar raise and a delayed timeline rattled investors On July 15, AST announced a proposed offering of $1 billion in convertible notes -- debt that lenders can later swap for shares of stock, which can lead to dilution -- plus an option for another $150 million.

The same day, a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosed that the company now expects to have roughly 45 of its BlueBird satellites up in early 2027. Prior guidance had that happening by the end of 2026, so the filing was essentially an admission that the company is behind schedule.

The market's response was immediate. Shares fell 17% on July 16, on the heaviest trading volume of the month.

The market punished the stock -- but the loan terms weren't all bad A delayed constellation means delayed revenue, and AST is a company still generating very little of it and burning a whole lot of cash. Adding an additional ten-figure debt while pushing key operational milestones isn't the best look.

Image source: Getty Images.

To be fair, however, the terms came in better than the market feared. AST closed the deal on July 21, raising $1.15 billion at a 1.625% annual interest rate. The company also put in place what's known as a "capped call," a strategy designed to reduce shareholder dilution if the debt is eventually converted into stock.

SpaceX's post-IPO slide dragged down the entire space sector After SpaceX's stock rocketed to a peak of more than $225 in the days that followed its June IPO, it spent most of July losing serious ground. It's such a high-profile stock that it seems to have a gravitational pull on the rest of the space market.

Where AST SpaceMobile goes from here Where things stand: AST expects to have something like $3.8 billion in cash after the raise, which is a substantial reserve, but launching satellites is an expensive business, and that is still likely only 2 to 3 years' worth at current burn rates.

The stock did get a bump late in the month after Scotiabank upgraded the stock from underperform to sector perform. Shares finished July at $58.98 and are up about 16% since, now hovering just above $67.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 10. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.28 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +31.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $34.13 million, up 2842.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.56% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for AST SpaceMobile?For AST SpaceMobile, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -1.56%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that AST SpaceMobile will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that AST SpaceMobile would post a loss of$0.23 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.66, delivering a surprise of -186.96%.

The company has not been able to beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

AST SpaceMobile doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Wireless Equipment industry, Motorola (MSI - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $3.86 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +8.1%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $3 billion, up 8.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Motorola has been revised 0.2% up to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of +0.52%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), this Earnings ESP indicates that Motorola will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies, aka SpaceX, on June 12 was a major market event for 2026, drawing attention to the innovative company and others in the budding space economy. Investors' enthusiasm spilled over into other space and satellite stocks, such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -1.39%), which rocketed to $133 per share in late May.

SpaceX's public debut marked a peak for many space-related stocks, and AST SpaceMobile has since fallen 58%. With AST SpaceMobile now trading below $63 per share, investors may be wondering whether the sell-off is a buying opportunity. Let's dive into the satellite company and its outlook to find out if it's right for you.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The bull case hinges on successful deployment of its BlueBird satellites AST SpaceMobile operates satellites that provide cellular broadband from space directly to standard smartphones. The company partners with mobile network operators, including AT&T, Verizon Communications, Vodafone, and Alphabet's Google, and typically uses a 50/50 revenue-sharing model for carriers that offer add-on satellite coverage. The company aims to bring cellular coverage to half the Earth's landmass that lacks it, and it has a potential user base of 3 billion subscriber connections across the globe.

To achieve continuous coverage across select high-priority markets, AST aims to deploy 45 to 60 satellites. The company was hoping to achieve this by year-end but faced a setback when its launch partner, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, deployed its satellite into an orbit too low to operate in, rendering its BlueBird 7 unusable.

The company used SpaceX's Falcon 9 to launch its BlueBird satellites 8 through 10 on June 17, and aims to launch satellites 11 through 13 in the first half of August. The successful Falcon 9 mission helps AST SpaceMobile continue establishing its satellite constellation, but the recent events reveal the risks around available launch services as it races to build out its satellite network.

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Does the recent 58% dip in AST SpaceMobile make it a buy? AST is guiding revenue for this year to be between $150 million and $200 million, with half of that backed by its existing backlog. Wall Street is forecasting a net loss of $1.55 per share, or about $463 million, as it deploys its satellites. In July, the company closed a $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes at 1.625% due 2034. The move gives it $3.8 billion in capital to fund its ongoing orbital expansion.

Looking ahead, management reiterated a revenue expectation of $1 billion next year. For 2028, analysts project revenue to grow to $1.9 billion, with GAAP earnings per share turning positive, assuming the company expands to 90 satellites to provide global continuous coverage.

The recent dip in AST SpaceMobile highlights the risks of investing in the early-stage satellite stock as it establishes its satellite network and scales up its commercial operations. That said, the stock has declined significantly from its recent peak, making it more favorable on a risk-to-reward basis. For aggressive investors bullish on the space economy and AST's role in it, the recent dip presents an appealing opportunity to add some shares in the company.

The initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.21%) may have marked a near-term peak in space-economy stocks. Many companies in the sector have fallen precipitously over the last month, including huge 2025 winner AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 1.66%).

Now, the direct-to-device satellite internet business aiming to revolutionize connectivity is raising $1 billion through a convertible bond offering, sending shares down nearly 60% from highs. However, at a share price of around $55 today, I still would not add AST SpaceMobile to my portfolio. Here's why.

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Massive opportunity in satellite internet AST SpaceMobile has the audacious goal of being the first company to fully commercialize high-speed satellite internet beamed directly to smartphones. This means that, unlike with current satellite internet services like Starlink, a person will not need a bulky satellite dish to obtain an internet connection to their devices. Starlink already generates over $10 billion in revenue, so if a company can improve on the service, you could see an explosion in adoption that disrupts the entire wireless internet sector.

Investors initially balked at this idea, as it had never been done before. However, over the last few years, AST SpaceMobile has proven that its technology can work with its massive BlueBird satellites. Seeing the technology getting proven, along with the hype around the incoming SpaceX IPO over the last year, sent AST SpaceMobile stock from $3 in 2024 to a peak of over $100 a share in 2026.

Now, the air has begun to come out of the space economy investing theme, with AST SpaceMobile stock down to around $55 as of this writing.

Image source: Getty Images.

Major competition and operational risks In the last few years, AST SpaceMobile has begun launching its satellites into orbit, partnering with Blue Origin and its potential competitor, SpaceX. It has nine operational satellites in orbit, including three launched by SpaceX. Manufacturing facilities in Texas are producing the remaining 90 or more satellites to create a full constellation in low Earth orbit, which AST SpaceMobile hopes will be launched in a timely manner.

This manufacturing ramp has already led to significant cash burn for AST SpaceMobile, with free cash flow of negative $1.37 billion over the last 12 months. Getting all its satellites to orbit will be expensive, which is why AST SpaceMobile just raised another $1 billion in a convertible bond offering. Plus, there is no guarantee launches will go as planned, with a recent Blue Origin mission misplacing an AST SpaceMobile satellite in orbit. Blue Origin's launchpad recently blew up, too, which will decrease the supply of payload capacity to send objects to orbit in a time when there is massive demand in the satellite industry.

On top of these launch risks, AST SpaceMobile will face competition from SpaceX in the direct-to-device internet market. According to SpaceX and Elon Musk, Starlink is working to deliver direct mobile connectivity to global users in the years ahead, capabilities that could match those AST SpaceMobile can provide customers. This could be a major issue for AST SpaceMobile, since SpaceX is one of its launch partners for BlueBird satellites.

Even if you believe AST SpaceMobile can defeat the mighty SpaceX and the tens of billions it raised in its IPO (along with its vertically integrated launch capabilities), the stock still looks overvalued today.

With a market value of $21 billion, huge cash burn, and a lot of debt beginning to pile up on the liabilities side of the balance sheet, AST SpaceMobile will have an enterprise value of $25 billion or more in the years ahead, based on the current share price, especially if you factor in continuing shareholder dilution.

Over the last 12 months, the company has generated less than $100 million in revenue. A full-scale direct-to-device satellite internet business may be able to generate $1 billion in revenue in the near future, but that would still make the stock overvalued relative to its current share price.

With likely a decade's worth of growth priced into shares today, even if its business strategy is successful, investors should avoid buying the dip on AST SpaceMobile stock.

MIDLAND, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (“AST SpaceMobile”) (NASDAQ: ASTS), the company building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by everyday smartphones, designed for both commercial and government applications, today announced the pricing of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 1.625% convertible senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) in a private offering (the “Notes Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The sale of the Notes to the initial purchasers is expected to settle on July 20, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.

Key Elements of the Transaction:

$1.0 billion 1.625% convertible senior notes due 2034, which have an initial conversion price of approximately $79.57 per share of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock, which represents a premium of approximately 20.0% over the last reported sale price of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock on July 15, 2026. Capped call transactions entered into in connection with the pricing of the Notes have an initial cap price of $149.20 per share of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock, which represents a premium of 125.0% over the last reported sale price of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock on July 15, 2026. Option to Purchase Additional Notes:

AST SpaceMobile also granted the initial purchasers of the Notes in the Notes Offering an option to purchase, for settlement within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the first date on which the Notes are issued, up to an additional $150.0 million aggregate principal amount of Notes.

Use of Proceeds:

AST SpaceMobile estimates that the net proceeds from the Notes Offering will be approximately $983.6 million (or approximately $1,131.2 million if the initial purchasers’ option to purchase additional Notes is exercised in full), after deducting the initial purchasers’ discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by AST SpaceMobile. AST SpaceMobile intends to use $96.9 million of the net proceeds from the Notes Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. AST SpaceMobile intends to use the remaining net proceeds from the Notes Offering to pursue an expanding universe of growth initiatives and secure additional access to orbit for its space-based cellular broadband network, including partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers. AST SpaceMobile currently does not have any understandings or agreements with respect to any such strategic transactions. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, AST SpaceMobile expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the option counterparties (as defined below), with the remainder of the net proceeds to be used as described above.

Additional Details of the Notes:

The Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of AST SpaceMobile. The Notes will accrue interest at an annual rate of 1.625%, payable semiannually in arrears on February 1 and August 1 of each year, beginning on February 1, 2027. The Notes will mature on February 1, 2034, unless earlier converted or repurchased.

Prior to the close of business on the business day immediately preceding November 1, 2033, noteholders will have the right to convert their Notes only upon the satisfaction of specified conditions and during certain periods. On or after November 1, 2033 and until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding February 1, 2034, noteholders may convert their Notes at any time regardless of these conditions. The initial conversion rate will be 12.5672 shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $79.57 per share of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock, which represents a premium of approximately 20.0% over the last reported sale price of $66.31 per share of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 15, 2026), subject to adjustment in certain circumstances. AST SpaceMobile will settle conversions of Notes by paying or delivering, as the case may be, cash, shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock, or a combination thereof, at AST SpaceMobile’s election.

The Notes will not be redeemable at AST SpaceMobile’s option prior to the maturity date, and no sinking fund is provided for the Notes.

Noteholders will have the right, subject to certain conditions and exceptions described in the indenture governing the Notes (the “indenture”), to require AST SpaceMobile to repurchase for cash all or a portion of their Notes upon the occurrence of a fundamental change (as defined in the indenture) at a purchase price of 100% of their principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, following certain corporate events that occur prior to February 1, 2034, AST SpaceMobile will, in certain circumstances, increase the conversion rate for a noteholder who elects to convert its Notes in connection with such corporate events.

Capped Call Transactions:

In connection with the pricing of the Notes, AST SpaceMobile entered into capped call transactions with certain of the initial purchasers of the Notes or affiliates thereof and other financial institutions (the “option counterparties”). The capped call transactions cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments AST SpaceMobile is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap. The cap price of the capped call transactions is initially $149.20 per share, which represents a premium of 125.0% over the last reported sale price of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock of $66.31 per share on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 15, 2026, and is subject to certain adjustments under the terms of the capped call transactions.

In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, AST SpaceMobile expects the option counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock or the Notes at that time.

In addition, the option counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to AST SpaceMobile's Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock or other securities of AST SpaceMobile in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 20 trading day period beginning on the 21st scheduled trading day prior to the maturity date of the Notes, or, to the extent AST SpaceMobile exercises the relevant termination election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock or the Notes, which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, it could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.

The Notes are only being offered and will only be sold to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A promulgated under the Securities Act by means of a private offering memorandum. Neither the Notes nor the shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, have been, or will be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold in the United States, except pursuant to an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, such registration requirements.

This announcement is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the Notes or any shares of AST SpaceMobile’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation, or sale in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, or sale is unlawful.

About AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile is building the first and only global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on our extensive IP and patent portfolio, designed for both commercial and government applications. Our engineers and space scientists are on a mission to enable 4G and 5G space-based cellular broadband to every device, everywhere, for today’s nearly 6 billion mobile subscribers globally.

Forward-Looking Statements

This communication contains “forward-looking statements” that are not historical facts, including statements concerning the completion of the Notes Offering, the potential effects of entering into the capped call transactions, and the expected use of the net proceeds from the Notes Offering. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the words “anticipates,” “believes,” “could,” “estimates,” “expects,” “intends,” “may,” “potential,” “will,” or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the expected results. Such risks include, but are not limited to, whether AST SpaceMobile will consummate the Notes Offering, prevailing market conditions, the anticipated principal amount of the Notes, which could differ based upon the exercise of the initial purchasers’ option to purchase additional Notes, the anticipated use of the net proceeds from the Notes Offering, which could change as a result of market conditions or for other reasons, whether the capped call transactions described above will become effective, the effects of entering into these transactions, and the impact of general economic, industry or political conditions in the United States or internationally.

AST SpaceMobile cautions that the foregoing list of factors is not exclusive. AST SpaceMobile cautions readers not to place undue reliance upon any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. For information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the Risk Factors in AST SpaceMobile’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 filed with the SEC on March 2, 2026, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 filed with the SEC on May 11, 2026 and the future reports that it may file from time to time with the SEC. AST SpaceMobile’s securities filings can be accessed on the EDGAR section of the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Except as expressly required by applicable securities law, AST SpaceMobile disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

More News From AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

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Our AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) 24/7 Wall St. price target is $91.65 over the next 12 months, implying 13.66% upside from the current price of $80.64. Our recommendation is buy with moderate confidence (0.5).

The 10-bagger question is fair given ASTS has already returned 542.04% over five years, but our base case does not see a near-term 10x. The path there requires flawless satellite deployment and MNO contract conversion over a multi-year window.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $80.64 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $91.65 Upside 13.66% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% A Volatile Path Into July, With Real Catalysts Underneath ASTS is down 7.06% over the past week and 13.85% over the past month, yet still up 76.84% over one year and 11.03% year to date. The stock sits 39% from its 52-week high of $133.86, well off the $36.08 low.

Q1 2026 revenue of $14.73 million missed the $36.58 million consensus, and EPS of -$0.66 came in well below the -$0.20 estimate, dragged by an $88.65 million induced conversion expense.

Underneath the noise, BlueBirds 8-10 are now operational in orbit per late-June updates, a Vodafone Spain direct-to-device agreement targets commercial availability by 2027, and Reddit chatter has cycled from a widely-shared “Down $240k in less than a month” loss post to renewed enthusiasm around a Rakuten contract. Cash and equivalents stood at $3.03 billion.

The Case for $108 and Beyond Bulls have a clean story. AST SpaceMobile has nearly 60 MNO partners covering 3 billion+ subscribers, over $1.20 billion in contracted partner commitments, and definitive agreements with Verizon and stc Group. Management is targeting 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026 and FY2026 revenue of $150 million to $200 million.

CEO Abel Avellan called the setup a “fortress balance sheet” paired with the “industry’s largest global commercial ecosystem.” Our model’s bull case one-year price is $108.33, a 34.34% return, and the five-year bull case reaches $163.27.

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The Risks Worth Watching The bear case starts with dilution and losses. Q1 2026’s $191.01 million net loss included $55.35 million in stock-based comp, and insiders have been active sellers. The CFO sold 45,809 shares at roughly $93.81, while the President sold 25,904 shares at $126.64. CEO Avellan entered a variable prepaid forward on 2.5 million shares for roughly $146.7 million, with a floor of $59.58.

Analyst sentiment is mixed with 2 buys, 7 holds, and 2 strong sells. A bear-case one-year price of $69.05 is realistic if launches slip. Bulls would counter that heavy capex and non-cash conversion charges reflect a company scaling a global constellation.

Hold With a Buyer’s Bias Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $91.65, a buy rating, and moderate 50% confidence reflect a stock priced for execution. The key factor tipping the scale is the growing revenue backlog against a still pre-commercial income statement.

The bull thesis strengthens if BlueBirds 11-13 launch cleanly and FY2026 revenue tracks toward the upper end of guidance. The setup weakens if satellite cadence slips or if further convertible issuance compounds dilution before commercial ramp.

Looking ahead, here is where our model projects ASTS could trade over the next 12 months, assuming current growth trajectories and satellite deployment milestones hold.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $91.65 This projection assumes ASTS executes its constellation buildout and converts MOU partners into recurring service revenue. Meaningful upside or downside could come from FCC decisions on spectrum, MNO churn, or a faster than expected European commercial launch.

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The roller coaster ride continues for AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS shareholders.

After space stocks were battered in the wake of the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX IPO in June, AST SpaceMobile rewarded patient investors with its best daily performance in two years.

Shares of the Midland, Texas-based space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband provider surged 21% on Monday, June 29, to close out the second quarter on a strong note. This was a welcome reprieve after a month in which the market punished ASTS despite the successful launch of its low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10.

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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Price Chart for Friday, July, 3, 2026

The catalyst for this week’s big jump was Japan’s plan to grant up to 148 billion yen (approximately $912 million) to a satellite communications project led by Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY. That put AST SpaceMobile’s Rakuten partnership back into the spotlight while raising hopes for a major D2D rollout in Japan.

Japan Announces Massive Space-Based Telecom SubsidyAST SpaceMobile Today

$85.13 0.00 (0.00%)

As of 07/2/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$36.08▼

$133.86Price Target$85.09

Motivated by concerns that critical communications infrastructure has become too dependent on foreign satellite networks such as SpaceX’s Starlink, Japan is using the Japan Low Earth Orbit Satellite Communications Project (J-LEO) to support a more resilient domestic alternative.

The program is expected to focus on satellite connectivity for remote areas, disaster response, and emergency communications, giving the Rakuten-led effort strategic value beyond a standard commercial telecom rollout.

According to the Japan Times, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications secured funding for the J-LEO in 2025, but the tender process didn’t conclude until last month. The plan calls for massive investment in the build-out of a homegrown D2D satellite network over the next three years.

Beyond the subsidy news, Rakuten announced plans for a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile that will secure full regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan. Initial commercial services are expected to begin later in 2026, with a full rollout slated for 2027.

The move could become a boon for AST SpaceMobile. Having narly $1 billion in sovereign-backed capital would give the company a clearer template for monetizing its technology through carrier- and government-backed international networks.

Launch Window Set for BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13After the successful June launch of its latest three satellites, AST SpaceMobile says it intends to launch BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the first half of August. That will go a long way in keeping the company on track to meet its goal of putting 45 LEO satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

“These next-generation satellites are expected to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of AST SpaceMobile's initial Block 1 BlueBird satellites, which recently achieved peak download speeds of 98.9 Mbps directly to standard smartphones," according to a recent company press release.

Beyond 2026, the company is scaling towards a constellation of 45 to 60 satellites, which it will require to provide initial continuous coverage in the United States and Japan. That number will need to increase to provide continuous global coverage, with approximately 90 BlueBirds required.

Ultimately, AST SpaceMobile could have as many as 248 satellites deployed to expand its network, increase its data capacity, and support a massive global clientele. However, the company has discussed a long-term plan that could involve up to 540 dual-use satellites over the next decade.

Despite Catalysts, Wall Street Remains TepidDespite the news and subsequently bullish price action, the jury is still out on AST SpaceMobile.

AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$85.09
-0.05% Downside

Reduce
Based on 10 Analyst Ratings

Current Price$85.13High Forecast$108.00Average Forecast$85.09Low Forecast$45.60AST SpaceMobile Stock Forecast Details

In Q2, the stock saw a series of less-than-inspiring ratings. On May 29, William Blair reissued a Market Perform rating on ASTS, while Wall Street Zen lowered its rating from a Sell to a Strong Sell on April 15.

On May 12, B. Riley Financial increased its ASTS price target from $75 to $85; however, the firm assigned the stock a Neutral rating. Also on May 12, UBS Group lowered its price target from $85 to $80, while in a research note dated June 24, Weiss Ratings reiterated its Sell rating.

Based on the 10 analysts currently covering ASTS, the stock receives a consensus Reduce rating, with a 12-month price target implying around 4% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, current short interest stands at a worrisome 20.35% of the float, or nearly 62.5 million shares valued at $5.47 billion.

However, AST SpaceMobile has agreements with nearly 60 global mobile network providers, totaling more than 3 billion subscribers, and strategic partnerships in place with AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, Vodafone NASDAQ: VOD, Rakuten, Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL, and real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, among others.

Long-term, the company should continue to enjoy top-line growth that translates into strong earnings for patient investors.

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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +9.08%) has already proved that ordinary phones can connect directly to satellites. The bigger test now is whether it can build, launch, and operate enough of its BlueBird satellites to turn that technology into a commercial network.

Here's why its upcoming satellite launch could strengthen the bullish case for the stock and why buying before the planned August launches makes sense.

Image source: Getty Images.

AST SpaceMobile's satellite launch strategy In June 2026, AST SpaceMobile launched BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10, which the company says are already operating in orbit. It is now targeting the launch of BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 in the first half of August 2026.

This timeline will test whether AST can keep launching satellites at the pace needed to build a commercial network. The satellites due to be launched in August are expected to use large 2,400-square-foot antennas.

The company recently reached a peak download speed of 98.9 megabits per second from its satellite network directly to ordinary smartphones. The August satellites are expected to nearly double that peak speed.

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In the 2026 first-quarter earnings call, management said that BlueBird satellites 11 through 33 were already in an advanced state of assembly, with key antenna parts completed through BlueBird 28. The company is targeting six fully assembled satellites per month, showing that it is trying to move from building satellites one by one to a steadier launch program.

AST SpaceMobile says it has already contracted launch capacity to support its 2026 target of roughly 45 satellites in orbit. The company is not relying on only one rocket provider. Its launch plan includes Space Exploration Technologies' Falcon 9, which can carry three BlueBird satellites; Blue Origin's New Glenn, which can carry up to eight; and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan, which can carry up to five. The alliance is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Management said new satellites could be ready to support 4G or 5G service with mobile network partners about 45 days after launch. Over time, it aims to cut that setup period to about two weeks.

Financials may improve over time AST SpaceMobile's revenue was only $14.7 million in the first quarter. However, management expects revenue to grow in the remaining three quarters of 2026. The company is guiding for 2026 revenue in the range of $150 million to $200 million.

The revenue story goes beyond satellite launches. AST SpaceMobile expects 2026 revenue from ground equipment and services for mobile-network partners, government contract work, consulting with mobile operators, and possible early service revenue as more satellites are launched and activated.

Management sees 2027 revenue potentially approaching $1 billion, helped by cellular broadband service in major markets and larger U.S. government contracts. To support that growth, the company is working on ground networks across markets covering about 2.9 billion people. This groundwork should help mobile-network partners activate service as more satellites come online.

Lastly, AST had about $3.5 billion in cash on its balance sheet at the end of the first quarter, against about $3.02 billion of total debt. Since nearly $2.9 billion of that is long-term debt, AST SpaceMobile has some flexibility to fund its commercial strategy.

I think it makes sense to buy the stock before the August launches. 

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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is the only public company beaming 4G and 5G directly to unmodified smartphones from low Earth orbit. CEO Abel Avellan calls it “the only technology positioned to capture the massive direct to device broadband opportunity in full.”

Shares are up just 11.06% year to date despite a constellation buildout that should reach approximately 45 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026. Can ASTS reclaim $100 by January 2027?

What’s Holding AST SpaceMobile Back The stock has stalled. ASTS fell 17.32% in the past week and is down 8.44% over the last month, retreating from a January 2026 peak of $115.77. Q1 2026 revenue of $14.73M missed expectations by 59.72%, and net loss widened with $88.65M in induced conversion expense on convertible notes.

Insiders have been sellers. The CFO unloaded 45,809 shares at $93.81 on June 12, and the president sold 25,904 shares at $126.64 in late May. With a beta of 2.634, ASTS moves violently. Right now it is moving down.

Wall Street Is Cautious. The Setup May Be Underestimated The consensus target sits at $81.47, pinned to today’s price. Analyst ratings split 2 Buy, 7 Hold, and 2 Strong Sell, with only 18% bullish sentiment.

Our base case sees $91.65 within a year (13.63% upside), with a bull case at $108.33. Confidence is moderate at 0.5. The hold-heavy consensus anchors to trailing financials while 2026 guidance steps up to $150M-$200M, backed by over $1.2 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments. That step function analysts tend to update slowly.

The Path to $100 Reaching $100 from today’s price of $80.66 requires a meaningful gain. That sits inside the one-year bull case.

Forward EPS is -$1.89, so $100 implies a forward multiple that is not meaningful. ASTS trades on constellation milestones and revenue ramp. The bull case rests on three catalysts: the mid-June launch of BlueBird 8, 9, and 10, the path to 45 satellites in orbit by year-end, and Block 2 satellites that are expected to nearly double the 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds already achieved.

Avellan framed it plainly: “AST SpaceMobile is accelerating manufacturing, regulatory progress, commercial partnerships, and government programs.”

With $3.03B in cash and nearly 60 global MNO partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, the funding gap has narrowed. The primary risk is execution: any launch slip or MNO conversion failure reprices the story fast.

Valuation Today Price-to-sales sits at 368.59, which only makes sense if the $150M-$200M 2026 revenue guide is the floor. Shares sit 39% below the 52-week high of $133.86 and well above the $36.08 low. The five-year return of 666.73% reflects how quickly this stock rerates on constellation news.

Is $100 Realistic? The bold target is $100, requiring a gain of $100.11 on January 21, 2027.

Three things must go right: mid-June BlueBird launches must hit orbit on schedule, 2026 revenue must track to the upper half of $150M to $200M, and at least one large MNO MOU must convert to a definitive agreement. Launch failure or further dilutive financing derails it. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but the blueprint for reaching $100 in 2027 is clear.