Bank of New York Mellon Corp lowered its position in shares of American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL – Free Report) by 3.0% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 3,933,780 shares of the airline’s stock after selling 120,047 shares during the period. Bank of New York Mellon Corp owned about 0.59% of American Airlines Group worth $42,249,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. West Branch Capital LLC purchased a new stake in shares of American Airlines Group during the 4th quarter worth $31,000. Center for Financial Planning Inc. raised its holdings in American Airlines Group by 377.4% in the fourth quarter. Center for Financial Planning Inc. now owns 2,530 shares of the airline’s stock worth $39,000 after purchasing an additional 2,000 shares in the last quarter. Clearstead Advisors LLC lifted its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 140.3% during the fourth quarter. Clearstead Advisors LLC now owns 2,968 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $45,000 after buying an additional 1,733 shares during the last quarter. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd lifted its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 208.2% during the fourth quarter. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd now owns 3,282 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $50,000 after buying an additional 2,217 shares during the last quarter. Finally, TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. boosted its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 74.8% in the 4th quarter. TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. now owns 3,500 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $54,000 after buying an additional 1,498 shares in the last quarter. 52.44% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
American Airlines Group Price Performance Shares of AAL opened at $14.48 on Friday. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average of $15.35 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $13.71. American Airlines Group Inc. has a 1-year low of $10.09 and a 1-year high of $18.79. The stock has a market cap of $9.58 billion, a PE ratio of -29.55 and a beta of 1.32.
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, July 23rd. The airline reported $0.15 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.03 by $0.12. The firm had revenue of $16.73 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $16.70 billion. American Airlines Group had a negative net margin of 0.56% and a negative return on equity of 9.11%. American Airlines Group’s revenue for the quarter was up 16.3% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the business earned $0.95 EPS. American Airlines Group has set its Q3 2026 guidance at -0.700–0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at -0.650-0.650 EPS. As a group, sell-side analysts expect that American Airlines Group Inc. will post 0.2 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Key American Airlines Group News Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: JPMorgan raised its price target on AAL to $24 from $22 and kept an overweight rating, signaling greater confidence in the stock’s upside after the post-earnings pullback. Benzinga Positive Sentiment: Zacks added American Airlines to its Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list, while other commentary said the stock looks technically oversold and could be due for a turnaround. Zacks Positive Sentiment: Analysts and market commentary pointed to improving sentiment around revenue strategy, premium demand, loyalty growth, and network gains, which supports the case for a recovery after the stock’s recent drop. Yahoo Finance Neutral Sentiment: American Airlines reported record quarterly revenue of $16.74 billion and beat EPS expectations, but investors are balancing that strength against a sharp profit decline year over year and a weaker full-year outlook. GlobeNewswire Negative Sentiment: The main pressure point remains surging jet fuel costs, which led American Airlines to cut its earnings guidance and cloud the profit outlook despite strong demand trends. CNBC Insider Transactions at American Airlines Group In other American Airlines Group news, COO David Seymour sold 69,343 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, June 24th. The stock was sold at an average price of $17.00, for a total transaction of $1,178,831.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief operating officer directly owned 1,025,489 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $17,433,313. This represents a 6.33% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website. 0.70% of the stock is owned by company insiders.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades Several research analysts recently commented on AAL shares. BMO Capital Markets reduced their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $19.50 to $19.00 and set a “market perform” rating for the company in a research note on Friday. Jefferies Financial Group boosted their target price on shares of American Airlines Group from $15.00 to $16.00 and gave the stock a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, June 24th. Weiss Ratings raised American Airlines Group from a “sell (d)” rating to a “sell (d+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 23rd. TD Cowen increased their price target on American Airlines Group from $20.00 to $24.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, July 2nd. Finally, Morgan Stanley lifted their target price on shares of American Airlines Group from $20.00 to $24.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Monday, June 1st. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $19.18.
View Our Latest Stock Report on AAL
About American Airlines Group (Free Report)
American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.
The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.
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American Airlines reported record Q2 revenue of $16.7 billion (+16% YoY), demonstrating successful premium service transition and commercial market recapture. The company faces a $3+ billion profit gap with legacy peers but is executing initiatives—like loyalty program growth—to close this gap. The airline forecasts a $6 billion boost in fuel prices in 2026, impacting short-term profit forecasts.
A downtrend has been apparent in American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) lately with too much selling pressure. The stock has declined 22.9% over the past four weeks. However, given the fact that it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts are majorly in agreement about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier, the stock could be due for a turnaround.
We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.
So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.
However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.
Why a Trend Reversal is Due for AALThe heavy selling of AAL shares appears to be in the process of exhausting itself, as indicated by its RSI reading of 28.69. So, the trend for the stock could reverse soon for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.
The RSI value is not the only factor that indicates a potential turnaround for the stock in the near term. On the fundamental side, there has been strong agreement among the sell-side analysts covering the stock in raising earnings estimates for the current year. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for AAL has increased 54.4%. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.
Moreover, AAL currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), which means it is in the top 5% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Anglo American PLC's (LSE:AAL) interim results next Thursday are expected to show stronger copper profitability offset by weaker iron ore pricing and losses from businesses being prepared for sale.
The miner's second-quarter production update this week was broadly reassuring, with copper and iron ore output around 1% ahead of expectations, according to Deutsche Bank.
UBS, which retained a 'buy' rating and 4,600p price target, warned that first-half EBITDA could undershoot the $3.9 billion consensus. Analyst Myles Allsop forecasts $3.6 billion.
Copper should provide the main bright spot after Anglo cut its unit-cost guidance by around 15% to 145 cents per pound, helped by stronger by-product credits and improved treatment charges.
Production of 173,000 tonnes met expectations, while output guidance remained at 700,000-760,000 tonnes.
Concerns had centred on Collahuasi following the temporary suspension of its desalination plant. However, Deutsche analyst Liam Fitzpatrick said this week's update indicates the mine performed in line with expectations and remained on course for a grade-driven recovery in 2027.
UBS expects lower copper costs to be offset by weaker realised iron ore prices, reflecting higher freight charges and the redirection of cargoes from Bahrain to China.
Steelmaking coal and De Beers are also expected to have been EBITDA-negative during the first half.
Anglo recently agreed to sell its Australian coal operations to Dhilmar for up to $3.88 billion, while discussions over the disposal of De Beers are "progressing".
Investors are also likely to look for confirmation that Anglo's merger with Teck Resources remains on track for completion between September and March.
Speaking at the earnings call after reporting second-quarter results, CEO Robert Isom commented about inflation-adjusted airfares.
“Real airfares are still lower than in 2019,” he said, even as demand continues to strengthen across domestic and international markets. That apparent contradiction helps explain one of the biggest shifts taking place across the airline industry: airlines are increasingly earning more from who is flying rather than simply how much everyone pays for a ticket.
Premium Travelers are Helping American FlyAmerican’s earnings highlighted just how much its business has shifted toward premium travelers.
“So it’s nearly half of our ticketed revenue on roughly 30% of our seats. And the thing we’re really excited about is nearly 60% of our revenue comes from households making $150,000 or more,” Nathaniel Pieper, Chief Commercial Officer chimed in.
The customer mix tells a similar story. According to the company, nearly 60% of ticket revenue now comes from households earning more than $150,000 annually, a customer base management believes is likely to remain resilient even during periods of economic uncertainty.
To capitalize on that trend, American is expanding premium seating faster than economy seating through new aircraft deliveries and cabin retrofit programs while investing in lounges, upgraded onboard products and, beginning in 2027, Starlink high-speed Wi-Fi.
Strategy at WorkThe strategy appears to be working. Premium unit revenue increased more than 13% year over year, outpacing growth in the main cabin, while managed corporate revenue climbed 26%. The airline also reported a five-percentage-point increase in customers upgrading from Basic Economy to Main Cabin after making changes to its fare offerings.
The result is a business model that’s becoming less dependent on raising economy ticket prices. Instead, airlines are increasingly generating incremental revenue from premium cabins, loyalty programs, co-branded credit cards, paid upgrades and higher-spending travelers.
It’s also helping mitigate the brunt of rising fuel costs. “In the second quarter, fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, or 83% year over year,” CFO Devon May noted. Isom confirmed how well American is dealing with it. “The second quarter helped offset nearly 50% of the $2.2 billion year-over-year increase in fuel expense.”
This, coupled with the company being able to hold “non-fuel year-over-year unit cost growth to under 3%” have been helping American fly through fuel inflation.
For investors, American’s latest quarter offers a reminder that the industry’s earnings story isn’t simply about higher fares. It’s increasingly about extracting more value from each traveler—even while inflation-adjusted airfares remain below where they were before the pandemic.
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Key Takeaways American Airlines reported record Q2 sales, with adjusted EPS of $0.15 and revenues of $16.74B.Premium unit revenues rose more than 13% YoY as AAL expanded premium offerings and fleet upgrades.AAL's AAdvantage enrollment increased over 30% YoY, supported by growth in major markets. American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) used its second-quarter earnings call to highlight progress from its commercial strategy, with management emphasizing premium revenues, loyalty growth and network improvements despite higher fuel costs.
Executives also pointed to a challenging fuel environment while maintaining that revenue momentum and cost discipline can improve profitability as conditions normalize.
AAL Highlights Commercial Strategy ProgressCEO Robert Isom said American Airlines’ four-pillar commercial strategy is producing measurable results across customer experience, network growth, premium revenues and loyalty. He noted that second-quarter revenues reached a record level, helping offset a substantial increase in fuel expense.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.03 by 400%. Revenues came in at $16.74 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.70 billion.
Management emphasized that American Airlines ended the quarter with $11.3 billion in liquidity while continuing efforts to improve efficiency and strengthen the balance sheet.
American Airlines Expands Premium FocusChief commercial officer Nathaniel Pieper highlighted stronger premium demand as a key driver of revenue improvement. Premium unit revenues increased more than 13% year over year, outperforming Main Cabin performance.
American Airlines said managed corporate revenues increased 26% year over year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Premium demand also benefited from expanded offerings and fleet upgrades.
The company is increasing premium capacity through new Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR deliveries, along with retrofit programs across existing aircraft. Premium seats are expected to grow faster than non-premium capacity.
AAL Addresses Fuel Pressure and CostsChief financial officer Devon May said fuel expense increased by more than $2.2 billion year over year during the quarter. He noted that revenue strength recovered nearly half of that increase.
American Airlines expects third-quarter capacity growth of 3% to 5% year over year and revenue growth of 16% to 19%. CASM, excluding special items, fuel and profit sharing, is expected to increase 2.5% to 4.5%.
Management guided for full-year adjusted earnings in the range of a loss of $0.65 to a profit of $0.65 per share, citing higher fuel costs as a major factor.
American Airlines Builds Loyalty MomentumPieper said AAdvantage enrollment increased more than 30% year over year in the second quarter, supported by growth in major markets and internationally. The company also highlighted continued engagement through its credit card relationship.
Second-quarter card spend increased 8% year over year. Management described loyalty as a core component of its long-term revenue strategy.
Customer experience improvements were another focus, with American Airlines reporting higher customer satisfaction metrics and continued gains in on-time flight satisfaction.
AAL Faces Analyst Questions on CapacityDuring Q&A, an Evercore ISI analyst questioned why American Airlines was not making larger capacity reductions amid fuel volatility. Isom said the company is adjusting capacity based on demand and fuel conditions while remaining focused on long-term network performance.
A Bernstein analyst asked whether AAL should reduce parts of its network to improve financial returns. Pieper said the company is selectively optimizing its footprint, including adjustments in certain hubs.
Management also defended its premium strategy when questioned about aircraft configurations. Pieper said American Airlines is matching aircraft types and premium offerings with market demand while maintaining operational flexibility.
American Airlines Sets Long-Term PrioritiesManagement maintained that improving revenue generation remains the central opportunity for American Airlines. Isom said the company is focused on customer experience, network strength, premium offerings and loyalty as drivers of future performance.
AAL expects capital expenditures of about $4 billion in 2026 and said it remains committed to reducing debt while maintaining liquidity.
Executives highlighted improving revenue trends entering the second half of the year while acknowledging continued pressure from fuel costs and industry volatility.
Zacks Rank and Style Scores SignalsAAL sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. The Zacks Rank is primarily driven by earnings estimate revisions and is designed to help identify stocks with stronger potential performance over a one-to-three-month timeframe. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The stock carries a Value Score of A, Growth Score of B, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of A. Zacks Style Scores evaluate value, growth and momentum characteristics, with higher grades indicating stronger attributes within each category.
A Zacks Rank #1 combined with favorable Style Scores can indicate stronger stock-selection characteristics, although the Zacks Rank and Style Scores can change as earnings estimates and market conditions evolve after reported results.
Here are five stocks added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List today:
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK - Free Report) : This integrated downstream energy company has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 29.1% over the last 60 days.
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - Free Report) : This petroleum refining company has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 56.5% over the last 60 days.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) : This airline company has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 303.6% over the last 60 days.
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI - Free Report) : This property and casualty insurance company has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 3.3% over the last 60 days.
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (HPP - Free Report) : This real estate investment trust has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 3.9% over the last 60 days.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
On July 23, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) shares fell 8.3% to a current price of $13.55. This decline comes amid a challenging price performance, with
Index Dow Jones -0,97 % na 51711,65 b. S&P 500 -1,21 % na 7408,3 b. Nasdaq Composite -2,15 % na 25137,69 b.
Obchodní den končí v USA v červeném. Široký index S&P 500 odepisuje 1,2 % pod tlakem poklesů v sektoru komunikačních služeb a zbytné spotřeby. V komunikační službách se negativní sentiment propsal do akcií Alphabet, které po kvartálních výsledcích odepisují 6,89 %. Rudá barva se prolila i do telekomunikačních služeb, kde reportoval T-Mobile US (- 10,75 %). Ten se chce v následujícím kvartálu zaměřit na vyšší výnosy z každého zákazníka a méně řešit přírůstky nových klientů. Vedení očekává slabší přírůstky a společnost se snaží převádět zákazníky na dražší tarify, což by mohlo vést k dočasnému úbytku zákazníků. Za minulý kvartál firma meziročně zvýšila čistý zisk o 5 % a díky silnému cash flow byl zvýšen celoroční výhled na USD 18,4 -18,8 mld. Zveřejněný zisk na akcii USD 2,99 překonal odhady trhu.
Nedařilo se ani aerolinkám. American Airlines Group (- 8,35 %) klesá kvůli slabšímu výhledu. Společnosti v uplynulém kvartálu významně rostla cena leteckého paliva. I když se zvýšené náklady povedlo částečně přesunout na zákazníka, tak trh negativně reaguje na zvýšený tlak na marže do budoucna. Management očekává v dalším kvartálu ztrátu až do výše USD 0,1 na akcii. V reportu za minulý kvartál dosáhl zisk na akcii na USD 0,15.
Kladně končí sektor průmyslu. GE Vernova posílila o 4,69 % a o 10,54 % posílil Lockheed Martin.
Z indexu Dow Jones posílila třetina titulů na čele s Honeywell Technologies (5,7 %).
Komoditní trhy se soustředí na černé zlato. Futures na ropu Brent se nyní obchodují těsně pod hranicí USD 100 a WTI při růstu o 5,3 % překonává cenovku USD 91,5.
Index S&P 500 -1,21 % na 7408,3 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Průmysl +1,8 % Komunikační služby -5,2 % Zdravotní péče +1,3 % Zbytná spotřeba -5,1 % Energie +0,6 % Nezbytná spotřeba -1,1 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) +11 % Tesla (TSLA) -15 % Allegion (ALLE) +10 % T-Mobile US (TMUS) -11 % United Rentals (URI) +10 % Rollins (ROL) -9,3 % Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) +8,7 % Dover Corp (DOV) -7,8 % Quest Diagnostics (DGX) +8,6 % Alphabet (GOOGL) -7,1 %
Marek Kameništiak
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení
American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL, XETRA:A1G) shares fell about 8% Thursday after the carrier reported better-than-expected second quarter results but issued a cautious outlook for the third quarter amid rising fuel costs.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share for the quarter, ahead of Wall Street expectations of $0.03 per share.
Revenue reached a record $16.74 billion, up 16.3% from a year earlier and broadly in line with analyst estimates.
The company highlighted strong demand across its commercial operations, with revenue growth across premium, Main Cabin, domestic and international segments. Premium passenger unit revenue increased 13.4% year over year, while Main Cabin passenger unit revenue rose 8.8%. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased 10.6%, while international performance was supported by growth across the Atlantic, Pacific and Latin America regions.
Corporate travel demand also remained strong, with managed corporate revenue rising 26% year over year during the quarter.
However, higher fuel expenses continued to pressure results. American reported fuel costs increased by more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, compared with the same period last year. The company said stronger revenue performance helped offset nearly half of the increase.
“American delivered year-over-year revenue growth of more than 16% in the second quarter, exceeding our initial expectations and continuing the momentum we’ve built across the business,” American CEO Robert Isom said.
“This performance reflects the strength of our commercial strategy, driven by our four pillars: elevate the customer experience, grow the global network, drive premium revenue and lead in loyalty.”
Looking ahead, American expects third quarter revenue to increase 16% to 19% year over year. The company anticipates average fuel prices of about $3.75 per gallon in the quarter and expects costs excluding fuel and profit sharing to rise 2.5% to 4.5%.
American forecast third quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share ranging from a loss of $0.70 to a loss of $0.10, below analyst expectations for a profit of roughly $0.28 per share.
For the full year, the company expects adjusted earnings per diluted share between a loss of $0.65 and a profit of $0.65.
American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL, XETRA:A1G) shares fell about 8% Thursday after the carrier reported better-than-expected second quarter results but issued a cautious outlook for the third quarter amid rising fuel costs.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share for the quarter, ahead of Wall Street expectations of $0.03 per share.
Revenue reached a record $16.74 billion, up 16.3% from a year earlier and broadly in line with analyst estimates.
The company highlighted strong demand across its commercial operations, with revenue growth across premium, Main Cabin, domestic and international segments. Premium passenger unit revenue increased 13.4% year over year, while Main Cabin passenger unit revenue rose 8.8%. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased 10.6%, while international performance was supported by growth across the Atlantic, Pacific and Latin America regions.
Corporate travel demand also remained strong, with managed corporate revenue rising 26% year over year during the quarter.
However, higher fuel expenses continued to pressure results. American reported fuel costs increased by more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, compared with the same period last year. The company said stronger revenue performance helped offset nearly half of the increase.
“American delivered year-over-year revenue growth of more than 16% in the second quarter, exceeding our initial expectations and continuing the momentum we’ve built across the business,” American CEO Robert Isom said.
“This performance reflects the strength of our commercial strategy, driven by our four pillars: elevate the customer experience, grow the global network, drive premium revenue and lead in loyalty.”
Looking ahead, American expects third quarter revenue to increase 16% to 19% year over year. The company anticipates average fuel prices of about $3.75 per gallon in the quarter and expects costs excluding fuel and profit sharing to rise 2.5% to 4.5%.
American forecast third quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share ranging from a loss of $0.70 to a loss of $0.10, below analyst expectations for a profit of roughly $0.28 per share.
For the full year, the company expects adjusted earnings per diluted share between a loss of $0.65 and a profit of $0.65.
Key Takeaways AAL posted record Q2 revenues of $16.74 billion as premium and Main Cabin demand strengthened. Passenger yield rose 11.9%, while premium unit revenues gained 13.4% and corporate revenues climbed 26%. Fuel expense surged 83.3%, squeezing operating margin to 2.7% and prompting cautious 2026 guidance. American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 earnings (excluding 4 cents from non-recurring items) of 15 cents per share, down 84.2% year over year but well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. The result represented a 400% earnings surprise.
Operating revenues rose 16.3% to a record $16.74 billion and surpassed the consensus mark of $16.70 billion by 0.2%. Revenue growth was strong across all entities and cabins, with premium, Main Cabin, domestic and international all increasing meaningfully year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile increased 10.3%.
AAL’s Passenger Revenues Gain on Higher PricingPassenger revenues climbed 15.9% year over year to $15.21 billion. Cargo revenues increased 29.7% to $273 million, while other revenues advanced 17.9% to $1.25 billion.
Passenger yield rose 11.9% to 22.33 cents, reflecting stronger pricing. Passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 10% to 18.59 cents. Revenue passenger miles grew 3.6%, while capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded 5.4%.The passenger load factor (% of seats filled with passengers) declined 1.5 points to 83.2%.
American Airlines Sees Broad Cabin and Regional StrengthPremium passenger unit revenues increased 13.4% year over year, outperforming an 8.8% rise in Main Cabin unit revenues. Managed corporate revenues advanced 26%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
Domestic passenger revenues rose 17.1% to $10.73 billion, aided by a 10.6% increase in passenger unit revenues. International passenger revenues grew 13.2% to $4.49 billion. Pacific revenues jumped 24.6%, Atlantic revenues increased 12.8% and Latin America revenues improved 11.4%.
AAL Faces a Sharp Increase in Fuel ExpenseTotal operating expenses rose 22.9% year over year to $16.29 billion. Aircraft fuel and related taxes surged 83.3% to $4.88 billion, reflecting a 77.1% increase in the average fuel price to $4.05 per gallon.
Salaries, wages and benefits increased 5.9% to $4.64 billion. Maintenance, materials and repairs rose 10.8% to $1.03 billion, while regional operating expenses increased 7.5% to $1.34 billion. CASM excluding special items, fuel and profit sharing advanced 2.9% to 13.93 cents.
American Airlines’ Margins Contract Despite Revenue GrowthGAAP operating income fell 60.7% year over year to $446 million. The reported operating margin narrowed to 2.7% from 7.9%, as elevated fuel costs outweighed the benefit of record revenues.
Adjusted operating income declined 61.7% to $453 million, while the adjusted operating margin contracted to 2.7% from 8.2%. GAAP net income totaled $71 million, or 11 cents per diluted share, compared with $599 million, or 91 cents, a year earlier.
AAL Expands Loyalty and Improves OperationsAAdvantage enrollments increased more than 30% year over year, while spending on the company’s co-branded Citi credit cards grew 8%. Changes to Basic Economy offerings and checked-bag fees contributed to a 5-point increase in the upsell rate to Main Cabin.
On-time arrival performance improved 2.8 points. The rebanking of the Dallas-Fort Worth hub reduced system misconnections by nearly 25% and helped unit revenues at the hub outperform the system average by 4 points.
AAL Maintains Strong LiquidityAAL ended the quarter with $11.3 billion in total available liquidity. Cash totaled $1.03 billion, while short-term investments were $6.74 billion at the end of June.
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 increased to $4.69 billion from $3.42 billion a year ago. Capital expenditures and aircraft purchase deposits totaled $1.63 billion. The company paid $4.65 billion toward long-term debt and finance leases while issuing $4.52 billion of long-term debt.
AAL Issues Cautious Q3 and 2026 GuidanceFor the third quarter, AAL, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), expects revenues to increase 16-19% year over year, with capacity growth of 3-5%. CASM excluding special items, fuel and profit sharing is projected to rise 2.5-4.5%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Management expects third-quarter adjusted results between a loss of 70 cents and a loss of 10 cents per share. The outlook assumes an average fuel price of approximately $3.75 per gallon and a $1.7 billion year-over-year increase in fuel expense. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 31 cents per share.
For full-year 2026, American Airlinesnow anticipates adjusted results ranging from a loss of 65 cents to earnings of 65 cents per share. Previously, the carrier had expected adjusted earnings in a range of a loss of 40 cents to earnings of $1.10 per share.
The revised outlook assumes a roughly $6 billion headwind due to high jet fuel prices. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 57 cents per share. Despite strong travel demand and rising ticket prices, American Airlines and other airline operators are grappling with the volatility of fuel prices, resulting in an uncertain environment.
Q2 Performance of Other Airline CompaniesDelta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 earnings (excluding 88 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.56 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51. Earnings declined in double digits (% wise) from a year ago as sharply higher fuel costs pressured profitability.
Revenues rose on a year-over-year basis to $17.67 billion but missed the consensus estimate of $17.76 billion. Broad demand strength lifted adjusted total revenue per available seat mile (“TRASM”), 12.4%, while premium and diversified revenue streams continued to expand.
United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share, down 48.6% year over year but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 by 3.7%.
Operating revenues rose 16% to $17.67 billion and were essentially in line with the $17.68-billion consensus mark. A 12.1% increase in TRASM and broad-based gains across premium, loyalty and cargo revenues supported the top line despite sharply higher fuel costs.
For the quarter ended June 2026, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) reported revenue of $16.74 billion, up 16.3% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.15, compared to $0.95 in the year-ago quarter.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.22% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.7 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.03, the EPS surprise was +400%.
While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how American Airlines performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items and fuel - Total: 13.93 cents versus the four-analyst average estimate of 13.99 cents.Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items - Total: 19.89 cents versus the four-analyst average estimate of 20.14 cents.Passenger load factor (percent) - Total: 83.2% versus 84.9% estimated by four analysts on average.Average aircraft fuel price including related taxes - Total: 4.05 $/gal versus 4.12 $/gal estimated by four analysts on average.Passenger revenue per ASM - Total: 18.59 cents versus 18.75 cents estimated by four analysts on average.Total revenue per ASM - Total: 20.45 cents compared to the 20.44 cents average estimate based on four analysts.Available seat miles - Total: 81.84 billion versus the four-analyst average estimate of 81.56 billion.Yield - Total: 22.33 cents versus 22.07 cents estimated by three analysts on average.Fuel consumption - Total: 1,204.00 MGal versus 1,223.11 MGal estimated by three analysts on average.Revenue- Passenger: $15.21 billion versus $15.29 billion estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +15.9% change.Revenue- Other: $1.25 billion versus $1.2 billion estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +18% change.Revenue- Cargo: $273 million versus $219.72 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +29.4% change.View all Key Company Metrics for American Airlines here>>>
Shares of American Airlines have returned -15.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term.
American Airlines AAL stock opened in the red this morning as lowered profit estimates, volatile jet fuel prices, and lingering margins concerns tempered an otherwise market-beating Q2 release.
Investors are bailing on AAL also because its net income came in down sharply (88%) on a year-over-year basis even though revenue popped more than 16% versus last year.
Following the post-earnings dip, American Airlines shares are down some 25% versus their recent high.
American Airlines’ bottom-line weakness reflects the “structural headwinds” delaying its broader financial turnaround.
The company’s pretax margins – hovering around slim single-digit levels – continue to lag legacy rivals Delta and United Airlines.
Crucially, AAL’s quarterly print suggests the firm’s recent price hikes have been far from sufficient in offsetting the Iran-driven volatility in jet fuel prices.
Adding to pressure in the recently concluded quarter were severe summer weather disruptions that hit key hub operations, compounding labour and maintenance costs.
Meanwhile, rebuilding corporate share remains an uphill climb after previous distribution strategy shifts alienated corporate travel agencies, squeezing yields in high-margin cabin tiers.
Why CEO Robert Isom remains bullish for 2027?Despite near-term turbulence, chief executive Robert Isom remains resolute about the company’s trajectory, saying “we’re set up really well for 2027.”
In a post-earnings interview with CNBC, he emphasized that American Airlines leads the industry in ex-fuel cost efficiency and revenue execution across its core commercial pillars.
The carrier already has 60% of its Q3 revenue booked, supported by “strong demand” for premium seating and rising AAdvantage loyalty program engagement.
Financially, AAL has overhauled its balance sheet, achieving its healthiest debt profile since 2016 after paying down over $13 billion in total debt.
With upcoming fleet decisions for 2030s widebody replacements on the horizon, Isom is convinced that American Airlines shares have unmatched upside potential as macro pressures normalize.
From an investment perspective, AAL stock presents a classic high-risk, high-reward turnaround play.
Trading at low valuation multiples relative to historical averages and legacy peers – the firm offers a deep discount for value-seeking investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility.
However, conservative investors may prefer to wait on the sidelines until margins show consistent expansion toward Delta and United levels, particularly because American Airlines said its loss per share could come in at 65 cents this year.
Isom has now reduced future guidance twice already in 2026. And it’s now like AAL pays a solid dividend to incentivize ownership despite ongoing challenges, too.
That said, investors should note that Wall Street analysts remain bullish as ever on the airline stock for the remainder of 2026.
The consensus rating on American Airlines sits at “Moderate Buy” currently, with the mean price target of just under $20 signaling massive upside potential from here.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.95 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +400.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this world's largest airline would post a loss of $0.45 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.4, delivering a surprise of +11.11%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
American Airlines, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry, posted revenues of $16.74 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.22%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $14.39 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
American Airlines shares have lost about 3.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 9.6%.
What's Next for American Airlines?While American Airlines has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for American Airlines was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.31 on $15.86 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.57 on $62.71 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Transportation - Airline is currently in the top 31% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 4.
This travel services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +3.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 103.3% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.
Allegiant Travel's revenues are expected to be $1.03 billion, up 49.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Flight Path to Profits: American Airlines Bets on SpaceXAmerican Airlines Group NASDAQ: AAL reported record quarterly revenue in the second quarter of 2026, as executives said gains from commercial initiatives helped offset a sharp year-over-year increase in fuel costs.
Chief Executive Officer Robert Isom said the airline delivered revenue growth of more than 16% from a year earlier, with improvement across every region served and every cabin offered. He attributed the results to American’s four-part commercial strategy: improving the customer experience, growing the global network, driving premium revenue and leading in loyalty.
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Boarding Passes Now Being Issued for the Ultimate eVTOL Arbitrage“This outstanding broad-based revenue performance reflects the strength of our commercial strategy,” Isom said. He added that the quarter’s revenue performance helped offset nearly 50% of a $2.2 billion year-over-year increase in fuel expense.
The company ended the quarter with more than $11 billion in available liquidity, and Chief Financial Officer Devon May said American finished the period with $11.3 billion of liquidity. May said the airline expects to produce positive free cash flow for the full year at the midpoint of its current guidance and to end 2026 with lower net debt than at the start of the year.
Fuel Costs Pressure Outlook Sky Wars: United's Predator Play for AmericanFuel was the central challenge discussed on the call. May said second-quarter fuel expense increased more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, from a year earlier. He said fuel forecasts had worsened quickly in recent weeks, with expected third-quarter fuel expense rising more than $700 million since the beginning of July and nearly $230 million in the prior week alone.
Based on the forward curve as of July 21, American expects an average fuel price of about $3.75 per gallon in the third quarter, which would result in a $1.7 billion year-over-year increase in fuel expense for the quarter.
As a result, American now expects third-quarter capacity to rise 3% to 5% year-over-year, about two percentage points lower at the midpoint than originally planned. May said the company will continue to evaluate capacity based on fuel prices and demand trends.
The airline guided to a third-quarter adjusted loss per diluted share of $0.70 to $0.10. For the full year, American adjusted its guidance to a range between a loss of $0.65 and a profit of $0.65 per diluted share. Isom said the company expects full-year adjusted earnings to be breakeven at the midpoint despite an anticipated nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind.
Revenue Strength Broad-Based Across Regions Chief Commercial Officer Nat Pieper said total revenue increased 16.3% year-over-year in the quarter, reaching the high end of the airline’s initial guidance. He said all geographic regions exceeded the company’s initial expectations.
Domestic unit revenue increased nearly 11%, with Washington National, Dallas Fort Worth and Los Angeles cited as standouts. Atlantic unit revenue rose about 9%, led by London. Pacific unit revenue increased 15%, with Japan described as noteworthy. Latin America unit revenue rose about 7%, supported by a recovery in Mexico beach demand. Pieper said customer experience metrics also improved. Total Net Promoter Score increased five points year-over-year, and for on-time flights, NPS improved for the 15th time in 17 months. He also cited a 7% year-over-year improvement in the ACSI survey.
The airline plans to install Starlink high-speed Wi-Fi on its fleet beginning in 2027. Pieper said connectivity is increasingly important to customers and that such investments strengthen American’s competitive position.
Premium and Loyalty Remain Key Priorities American emphasized premium demand as a key driver of its strategy. Pieper said premium unit revenue increased more than 13% year-over-year, driven by strong leisure and corporate demand. Main cabin unit revenue increased nearly 9% and accelerated during the quarter.
In response to an analyst question, Pieper said premium revenue rose 19% in the quarter, compared with a 15% increase in non-premium revenue. He said premium accounts for nearly half of ticketed revenue on roughly 30% of seats. He also said nearly 60% of American’s revenue comes from households earning $150,000 or more, which he described as demand more likely to hold up during economic uncertainty.
The airline is expanding premium capacity through new Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR deliveries, as well as retrofit programs on 777-300ER, 777-200ER, A320 and A319 aircraft. Pieper said lie-flat and premium economy capacity grew nearly twice as fast as main cabin capacity during the quarter.
Corporate demand was another area of strength. Pieper said managed corporate revenue rose 26% from a year earlier, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In response to a media question about Southwest Airlines’ efforts to attract corporate customers, Pieper said American’s managed corporate revenue, small and medium business product and travel management company business were all growing, adding, “We’re not losing it.”
The AAdvantage loyalty program also posted growth. Pieper said enrollments increased more than 30% year-over-year in the second quarter, surpassing the record growth achieved in the first quarter. He said the largest enrollment gains occurred in New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles, with international growth also strong. Co-branded card spending across American’s Citi portfolio grew 8% year-over-year.
Network, Fleet and Balance Sheet Plans American executives said the airline is focused on improving hub performance and selectively growing its network. Pieper said a new bank structure at Dallas Fort Worth, implemented in April, has reduced systemwide misconnects by nearly 25% year-over-year and helped DFW unit revenue outperform the system average by about four points.
The airline also launched new routes from Philadelphia to Budapest and Prague, and from Dallas Fort Worth to Athens. Pieper said American resumed service to Venezuela with flights to Caracas and Maracaibo, describing the airline as the first U.S. carrier to do so.
May said American expects to take delivery of 48 new aircraft this year and continues to expect about $4 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. In response to an analyst question, he said 2027 capital expenditures are likely to be around $4.5 billion, while noting that some delivery schedules later in the decade still need smoothing.
On the balance sheet, May said American completed about $1.3 billion in incremental financings during the second quarter, bolstering liquidity and addressing its only meaningful 2027 maturity. He said the company’s longer-term goals remain reducing total debt to inside $35 billion, bringing net debt well inside $30 billion and achieving a double-B credit rating, which would require net debt to EBITDA inside three turns.
Isom closed by saying American remains focused on execution, customer service and long-term value creation. He said the company still has work to do but is seeing momentum from its strategy and expects additional progress in 2027 and beyond.
About American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL)American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world's largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.
The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.
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Fifth Third Bancorp boosted its position in shares of American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL – Free Report) by 2,448.0% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 159,634 shares of the airline’s stock after buying an additional 153,369 shares during the quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp’s holdings in American Airlines Group were worth $1,714,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.
A number of other hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of AAL. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of American Airlines Group by 21.8% during the fourth quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 4,276 shares of the airline’s stock worth $66,000 after purchasing an additional 766 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 6.6% during the 2nd quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 13,251 shares of the airline’s stock worth $149,000 after buying an additional 823 shares during the period. HB Wealth Management LLC increased its stake in shares of American Airlines Group by 4.5% in the 1st quarter. HB Wealth Management LLC now owns 20,205 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $217,000 after acquiring an additional 871 shares during the last quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC increased its stake in shares of American Airlines Group by 33.1% in the 1st quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC now owns 3,816 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $41,000 after acquiring an additional 949 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC raised its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 4.5% in the 4th quarter. Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC now owns 22,346 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $343,000 after acquiring an additional 954 shares during the period. 52.44% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
Analyst Ratings Changes A number of research analysts recently issued reports on AAL shares. Wall Street Zen cut shares of American Airlines Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 18th. Bank of America boosted their price target on shares of American Airlines Group from $16.00 to $19.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a report on Wednesday, July 1st. Melius Research cut shares of American Airlines Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating and upped their price objective for the company from $15.00 to $19.00 in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. The Goldman Sachs Group raised their price objective on American Airlines Group from $10.00 to $15.00 and gave the stock a “sell” rating in a research note on Thursday, July 2nd. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company reiterated a “market perform” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a report on Tuesday, June 30th. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, American Airlines Group has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $19.37.
Check Out Our Latest Analysis on American Airlines Group
American Airlines Group Stock Down 3.2% NASDAQ:AAL opened at $14.79 on Thursday. American Airlines Group Inc. has a twelve month low of $10.09 and a twelve month high of $18.79. The business has a 50 day moving average price of $15.29 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $13.71. The company has a market cap of $9.78 billion, a P/E ratio of 47.71 and a beta of 1.32.
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The airline reported ($0.40) earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.45) by $0.05. American Airlines Group had a net margin of 0.36% and a negative return on equity of 9.11%. The company had revenue of $13.91 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $16.13 billion. During the same period last year, the business earned ($0.59) EPS. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 10.8% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts anticipate that American Airlines Group Inc. will post 0.57 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Insiders Place Their Bets In other American Airlines Group news, COO David Seymour sold 56,456 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, June 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $18.00, for a total value of $1,016,208.00. Following the transaction, the chief operating officer directly owned 969,033 shares in the company, valued at $17,442,594. The trade was a 5.51% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. Company insiders own 0.70% of the company’s stock.
About American Airlines Group (Free Report)
American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.
The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.
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FORT WORTH, Texas, July 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) today reported its second-quarter 2026 financial results, including record quarterly revenue, driven by strong demand for American's product and solid commercial execution. Second-quarter highlights: Record revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year over year, the highest quarterly revenue in company history, driven by strong performance across American's four commercial pillars.
American Airlines further cut its 2026 earnings outlook, citing higher fuel costs, a sign that a jump in fares isn't enough for the U.S. airline that flies the most to fully offset this year's spike in fuel prices.
American said it could post an adjusted loss per share of as much as 65 cents up to earnings per share of 65 cents this year, below the range it estimated in April between a loss of 40 cents per share up to earnings of $1.10 a share.
Fuel prices have been volatile even in the few short weeks of the U.S. airline earnings season that kicked off in July, which has clouded the outlook for airlines this year. Carriers say strong demand and higher fares are helping offset some of the spike. Fuel is airlines' biggest expense after labor.
For the current quarter, American said it could report an adjusted loss of between 70 cents a share and 10 cents a share, below the 28 cents a share in earnings Wall Street expected, but it forecast revenue to rise between 16% to 19%, above the the 16.6% analysts project.
American said it would expand flying by as much as 5% in the third quarter.
American CEO Robert Isom told CNBC in an interview last month that the carrier's "long-range" plan is to close the margin gap that has widened with profit leaders Delta Air Lines and United Airlines but he didn't give a timeframe for that goal. American is planning to order new wide-body aircraft this year and will add more high-yielding premium seats to older jets, Isom said.
Here is what American reported in the second quarter compared with Wall Street estimates compiled by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 15 cents adjusted vs. 3 cents expectedRevenue: $16.74 billion vs. $16.71 billion expectedAmerican's profit in the three months ended June 30 fell 88% from a year earlier, to $71 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $599 million, or 91 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 16.3% to $16.74 billion. Passenger revenue per available seat mile, a measure of airlines' pricing power, rose 10% from last year.
Adjusting for one-time items, American posted earnings of 15 cents a share.
Read more CNBC airline newsDelta launches ‘basic business’ fares without lounge access, seat selectionRecord heat, crowds drive offseason boom in international travelDelta expects higher airfare to last, bringing 2026 profit goal in reach'Bring 'em on': Delta wants United's crown over the Pacific, tooSpirit's collapse, high fuel prices test limits of summer vacation spendingMeet the pilots flying Spirit Airlines' yellow jets to the desert
Shares in Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) rose 5% to 3,703p after the FTSE 100 miner slashed its cost forecasts for its copper business, the division that will define the group after its merger with Canada's Teck Resources.
Unit cost guidance for copper, the cash cost of producing a pound of metal, was cut to about 145 cents from roughly 172 cents previously.
That reflects a reduction in Chilean costs to about 210 cents a pound from 230 cents, and a much steeper cut in Peru to about 65 cents from 100 cents.
The savings come from higher credits for by-products such as molybdenum, which are sold alongside copper and offset production costs, and from favourable currency movements.
Cost discipline matters more than volumes here, because Anglo is repositioning itself as a copper pure play and investors are focused on the margin the enlarged group can generate.
Realised copper prices in the first half were 608 cents a pound, 39% higher than a year earlier and above the average London Metal Exchange price of 593 cents.
Production itself was unremarkable, with copper output flat at 173,200 tonnes as higher throughput at Los Bronces offset lower ore grades at Collahuasi and Quellaveco.
Premium iron ore output fell 3% to 15.4 million tonnes after planned maintenance at Kumba and weaker grades at Minas-Rio.
Full-year production guidance was left unchanged across every division.
Chief executive Duncan Wanblad said the Teck merger remained on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027, with Chinese antitrust clearance the last outstanding regulatory hurdle.
He also flagged inflationary pressure on fuel and mining consumables stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
The businesses being sold offered less encouragement, with underlying earnings from De Beers and steelmaking coal expected to be negative in the first half.
Rough diamond prices fell 32% to $105 a carat as lab-grown stones continued to erode demand for cheaper natural gems.
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Wall Street’s take on American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL | AAL Price Prediction) is a study in hesitation. The sell-side holds a consensus price target of $19.60 with an equal number of Buy and Hold/Sell ratings, while shares closed most recently at $15.28. That is a lukewarm stance for a stock that has quietly climbed 24.0% over the past year heading into its July 23 earnings report.
The Cash Flow Inflection Wall Street Is Underweighting The most overlooked line in the Q1 2026 filing was cash generation. Operating cash flow reached $4.22 billion (+71.95% year over year) and free cash flow more than doubled to $3.41 billion (+108.82% year over year). Revenue accelerated to $13.91 billion, up 10.8% year over year, with Atlantic passenger unit revenue up 16.7% year over year and managed corporate revenue up 13% year over year.
The loyalty flywheel is the other missed signal. AAdvantage enrollments rose 25% year over year to a record, alongside the new 10-year exclusive Citi co-branded credit card partnership. CEO Robert Isom framed the setup this way on the Q1 call: “American delivered record revenue in the first quarter, and we’re on track for another record in the second quarter.” Polymarket agrees, pricing an 87% probability that American beats the imminent quarter.
The Counterweight Investors Cannot Ignore The bear case is grounded in real numbers. Full-year 2025 net income collapsed to $111 million, down 86.88% year over year, and FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of negative $0.40 to $1.10 implies at best modest profitability. Leverage remains heavy at $34.7 billion in total debt with negative stockholders’ equity of $4.08 billion. Fuel is the swing factor: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $79.20 per barrel after a 13.8% weekly jump, and management already flagged more than $4 billion in incremental fuel expense for 2026. Volatility is also elevated, with a beta of 1.319. Melius Research recently moved the stock from Buy to Hold, citing aggressive capacity growth and volatile fuel prices, and insiders have recorded 19 recent transactions with net selling activity.
Does the Bull Case Survive? With a price-to-sales ratio of 0.18 and a forward P/E of 32x, American Airlines appears priced for stagnation. If the free cash flow trajectory holds and the Atlantic plus premium mix continues to accelerate, the sell-side’s $19.60 target could look conservative. Keep an eye on the stock into Thursday’s report: fuel commentary, unit revenue by region, and any update on debt reduction below $35 billion will determine whether the market finally re-rates the story.
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Philippine Airlines, a Southeast Asian carrier, plans to purchase as many as 20 Boeing (BA) 787-10 Dreamliners, marking its first direct aircraft order from the
Analysts on Wall Street project that American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 96.8% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $16.7 billion, increasing 16% from the same quarter last year.
Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 1022.7% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.
Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as a yardstick to evaluate the company's quarterly performance, scrutinizing analysts' projections for some of the company's key metrics can offer a more comprehensive perspective.
Bearing this in mind, let's now explore the average estimates of specific American Airlines metrics that are commonly monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts.
Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- Passenger' will reach $15.25 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +16.2% year over year.
Analysts forecast 'Revenue- Other' to reach $1.20 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +13.6% year over year.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenue- Cargo' will reach $219.72 million. The estimate points to a change of +4.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items and fuel - Total' should arrive at N/A. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of N/A.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items - Total' at N/A. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of N/A.
The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Passenger load factor (percent) - Total' will likely reach 84.9%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 84.7%.
Analysts expect 'Passenger revenue per ASM - Total' to come in at N/A. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported N/A in the same quarter of the previous year.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Total revenue per ASM - Total' reaching N/A. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported N/A in the same quarter of the previous year.
The consensus estimate for 'Available seat miles - Total' stands at 81.56 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 77.64 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Yield - Total' will reach N/A. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of N/A.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Fuel consumption - Total' should come in at 1223 millions of gallons. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 1163 millions of gallons in the same quarter last year.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Revenue passenger miles - Total' of 69.21 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 65.76 billion.
View all Key Company Metrics for American Airlines here>>>
Over the past month, shares of American Airlines have returned -6.3% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. Currently, AAL carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting that it may outperform. the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
FORT WORTH, Texas — American Airlines CEO Robert Isom has a math problem.
The carrier is flying about 6,500 flights per day this year — nearly an entire Alaska Airlines more worth of travel more than its closest competitor, according to Cirium — yet American's profit gap has grown. United Airlines brought in about $3 billion more than American last year, and U.S. profit leader Delta Air Lines made nearly $5 billion more.
In an exclusive interview with CNBC late last month, Isom said American and its nearly 140,000 employees want "to be best at everything that we do." He said that carrier's "long-range plan is certainly making up the margin gap," but he didn't put a timeline on that goal.
American's top executives at the carrier's headquarters late last month outlined new initiatives to CNBC: bigger, more luxe airport lounges, a new wide-body aircraft order, and fresh interiors for even more of its long-haul fleet to attract big spenders.
Isom described the carrier's identity as "a premium global airline with the largest footprint in North America."
American has more decisions it needs to make — and soon — to close the gap. Perhaps its biggest challenge is getting customers to shell out more to fly, something Delta and United zeroed in on years ago.
American has mastered running an efficient business but "what we will measure over time is: Are we closing this revenue gap and closing the unit revenue gap?" American CFO Devon May said.
Cabins, planes and loungesThe carrier's executives reiterated that American's plan rests on growing its ever-more important loyalty program, improving customers' experience, expanding its network and increasing higher-end revenue.
The airline is forecast to earn 64 cents a share this year, on an adjusted basis, which would be up almost 80% from last year, according to analyst estimates. It will give an updated forecast when it reports second-quarter results on Thursday.
United and Delta earlier this month reported bookings are still strong. The surge in fuel prices have both helped and hurt the industry this year: The sudden run-up in prices because of the Iran war took carriers off guard, though they're passing more of those costs along to travelers, and executives don't expect fares will drop much anytime soon.
Wall Street is optimistic American will continue to improve, expecting it to quadruple adjusted earnings in 2027 to $2.58 a share.
American is now remodeling cabins across the fleet and taking deliveries of new planes with interiors that feature new amenities and more premium seats. Executives have said they're considering but haven't decided on bringing back seatback screens to much of its narrow-body fleet, though American recently joined the ranks of airlines that are adding satellite Wi-Fi from SpaceX's Starlink.
Customers who are willing to pay more for premium seats or other perks like lounge access have been a bright spot across the industry, and everyone from profit leader Delta to now-defunct budget carrier Spirit Airlines has tried to woo those travelers as airlines rush to get fancy, new seats — small but profitable real estate — in the air.
Isom told CNBC that work to refresh cabins will soon expand to American's Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners. Its revamped cabins on its largest planes, the 777-300ERs, could debut in the next few weeks. Each business-class, lie-flat seat can bring in close to $10,000 on some long-haul international routes compared with $2,000 or even much less for a seat in the back.
Keeping up high-touch service levels could be a challenge, the airline's flight attendant union said, as the 70-seat business class soon comes online. American has been phasing out planes with separate first and business classes.
"Now, as American introduces 70 Business Suites and markets a premium international experience, they're expecting a reduced number of Flight Attendants to deliver significantly more personalized service," Julie Hedrick, president of the Association of Professional Flight Attendants, said in a statement. (American reduced flight attendant staffing on those aircraft from 13 to 11 in 2020. Other carriers have made similar moves.) "The result will be longer service times and a customer experience that falls short of what passengers expect."
In another lure for premium travelers, Chief Customer Officer Heather Garboden told CNBC that American is going to build the biggest Admirals Club lounge in its network, at 37,000 square feet, at its sprawling Dallas Fort Worth International Airport hub in Terminal C.
At the under-construction Terminal F at that airport, American is also planning a grab-and-go Provisions airport lounge, as well as a Flagship check-in area in Terminal D. The entire airport, American's largest hub, is undergoing a $12 billion makeover, and the carrier recently unveiled new gates in Terminal C, which will expand further. American and others have been upgrading and expanding airport lounges for the spendiest customers around the U.S.
But United has had a roughly decade head start at catering to higher-paying travelers, while Delta has close to two decades of experience. In the late 2000s, Delta was giving away about 90% of its domestic first-class seats through free upgrades for frequent flyers, but now it says it sells the vast majority, with customers paying cash or redeeming miles, now a trend among big carriers, though American wants to increase buy-ups.
Under Isom, American has been upping its game in premium investments. American's commercial team is working on technical changes that aim to offer customers more opportunities to buy pricier seats.
Aside from its of fortress hubs, American's chief commercial officer, Nat Pieper, said the airline needs to win in so-called jump-ball markets like Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, D.C. He said American continues to grow sign-ups for its lucrative credit card program in some of those, including New York.
American said it's flying is split about 80% domestic versus 20% international. International flights often carry a high premium compared with domestic routes — and the planes serving them generally have more luxurious seats on board.
Isom said the airline's network breadth is a major strong suit and will continue to be.
While American and other airlines rely on alliances and partnerships to expand reach, United is flying a lot of that itself.
United flies more internationally than Delta and American, and made its geography quiz-like network a calling card and , adding dots on the map from Mongolia to Galicia, Spain.
'Never been deterred'A mechanical engineer by education who took his first flight at about age 4, Isom rose up the ranks at Northwest Airlines and America West Airlines, which through mergers became modern-day Delta and American, respectively.
The airline industry is one of the most insular. In part, because of the safety-critical and specific knowledge needed to keep thousands of planes on track every day, airlines don't often hire from other industries, especially at the top.
The executive team that long worked at American is split between that carrier and United. The CEO of United, Scott Kirby, used to work at American, until he was fired almost exactly 10 years ago. United announced it hired Kirby as president the same day.
Isom, 62, took over the top role at American in March 2022, after the airline industry had been rocked by the pandemic.
"I've never been deterred, no matter what the challenges that we face," he said.
He took over in a quarter when American lost $1.6 billion.
"I'm clear-eyed about the challenges in this business," he said, pointing to an industry that has been through everything from the 9/11 terrorist attacks, to the financial crisis, bankruptcies, mergers and wars and disease.
American ranked sixth of 11 U.S. airlines in punctuality in the first half of the year, according to Cirium data that pointed to with a 76.6% on-time rate, while Delta and United took the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively. Under Isom and COO David Seymour, the carrier is working to improve its on-time rate, spreading out its schedule instead of jamming chaotic connecting banks in major hubs, and using artificial intelligence to predict maintenance problems.
On top of that, the carrier's earnings are still hamstrung from its $35 billion debt load though American has slashed that from around a $54 billion peak coming out of the pandemic, with balance sheet improvement a major priority.
"They're a giant — with a limp," said Dennis Tajer, spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association, which represents American's 15,000 aviators. Earlier this year, the APA and the flight attendants' union called Isom's leadership into question. Underperformance from the broader company means less profit-sharing for staff.
Getting customers to notice improvements could take time.
"Changing a service culture is hard, but not impossible," said Jay Barney, a professor of strategic management at the University of Utah David Eccles School of Business. To alter overall brand perception, he said, "You have to make the changes obvious and visible, to current customers and potential customers."
One issue is that flyers are often locked in because the biggest airlines have such overwhelming market share at major hub airports, he added.
What airlines might be trying to do is "charge more to their current customers," Barney said.
Wide-body planesAmerican might be behind in its premium game, but Isom said customer satisfaction scores are rising. Chief Commercial Officer Pieper, an airline industry veteran whom the company appointed last fall as the carrier was recovering from a failed corporate sales strategy in 2024, said demand is strong across the board.
Buying new wide-body planes will be key to the airline's next phase, Isom said. An order is on the table for this year, with both Boeing and Airbus in the mix, he said.
American's more than 1,000 planes make up the youngest fleet of the three largest U.S. airlines, according to 2025 annual filings, thanks in part to a more than 400-airplane order it made about 15 years ago for new Boeing and Airbus narrow-body planes, but dozens of its Boeing 777 wide-bodies average more than two decades old.
American's refresh of those older planes, Boeing 777-200s, are next, Isom said, but the carrier is shopping for new planes.
"I think that Airbus could play a big role" in the new order, Isom said. American's wide-bodies are all currently Boeing planes.
American declined to say the size of its planned order. New aircraft for American would likely arrive in the early or middle of the next decade.
Up in Chicago, rival United — which has been duking it out with American at O'Hare International Airport — snatched up delivery slots for more than 100 Boeing Dreamliners in the last four years.
A future without UnitedAs Isom lays out his vision for the future of the airline, there's one path he says the carrier doesn't see as feasible.
United CEO Kirby suggested this year a merger with American, an idea the airline rebuffed.
"I spoke with Scott," Isom told CNBC. "Given history, given law, given past mergers, there wasn't anyone that we talked to, our advisors, interested parties, politicians, that said that there was any chance of this happening.
"At the end of the day, we spend time looking at things that have a chance of happening. We don't spend a lot of time pursuing impossibilities," he said.
United has a partnership with JetBlue (American had a more involved one with JetBlue in the Northeast but it was blocked by a judge on antitrust grounds in 2023). But Kirby has repeatedly said this year he's not interested in acquiring that New York airline. He also acknowledged that a merger with American won't happen without a willing partner in that carrier's management.
United, meanwhile, gets several slots at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport as early as next year under the JetBlue deal.
"Why buy the cow if you're getting the milk for free?" said Brett Snyder, who writes the Cranky Flier blog.
Isom gave a standard line from executives when CNBC asked his own appetite for possible mergers and acquisitions, saying the carrier is always on the lookout for opportunities to serve the company's customers.
For now, though, Isom said he is firmly focused on American's new chapter.
He said he gravitated toward the industry "to be involved with something where you can make a difference.
"This is this one that you never wake up in the morning or going to bed at night thinking: Did I do good for somebody or something?" he said. "You certainly had the chance to in this business."
Key Takeaways AAL is expected to report Q2 earnings of 5 cents per share on revenues of $16.7 billion. American Airlines may benefit from lower fuel prices and strong consumer and corporate bookings.AAL faces higher labor costs, with adjusted non-fuel unit costs estimated at 13.99 cents. American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 5 cents per share, indicating a decline of a cent in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 94.7% downward movement from the year-ago actual.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $16.7 billion. The consensus mark implies a 16% upward movement from the year-ago actual.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s revenues is pegged at $62.22 billion, implying an increase of 13.9% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is pinned at 49 cents, calling for a 36.1% year-over-year expansion. Moreover, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS points to a massive 357.9% upward revision over the past 60 days.
AAL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missing the mark once). The average beat is 2.6%.
Given this backdrop, let us examine the factors that might have influenced American Airlines’ performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The interim peace deal between the United States and Iran has resulted in a sharp fall in oil prices. This development is likely to have aided AAL’s bottom-line performance since expenses on fuel represent a key input cost for airlines.
Moreover, strong bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the June quarter. High labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-fuel unit cost, or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted), is pegged at 13.99 cents compared with 13.59 cents reported in the second quarter of 2025.
Despite having come down from the highs witnessed when the war between the nations was in full flow, oil prices are fluctuating, given the fragility of the interim peace deal. In this scenario, focus will also be on AAL’s guidance for the September quarter as well as for full-year 2026.
What Our Model Says About AALOur proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AAL has an Earnings ESP of +67.44% (the Most Accurate Estimate is 4 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate) and a Zacks Rank #2.
Highlights of AAL’s Q1 EarningsAmerican Airlines posted a loss (excluding 18 cents from non-recurring items) of 40 cents per share in the first quarter of 2026, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 45 cents. The carrier reported a loss of 59 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Operating revenues of $13.91 billion rose 10.8% year over year and edged past the consensus mark of $13.81 billion. Management pointed to strengthening demand and unit revenue trends as core drivers, even after an estimated $320 million revenue impact from winter storms.
Other Stocks to ConsiderHere are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.31% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CSX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 3 cents over the past 30 days to 50 cents per share. CSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 3.2%.
Union Pacific (UNP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has moved up 6 cents to $3.20 per share over the past 30 days. UNP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other occasion). The average beat is 2.3%.
Shares of American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) have gained 1.4% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $15.63, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $19.64 indicates a potential upside of 25.7%.
The average comprises 22 short-term price targets ranging from a low of $12.50 to a high of $25.00, with a standard deviation of $3.69. While the lowest estimate indicates a decline of 20% from the current price level, the most optimistic estimate points to a 60% upside. More than the range, one should note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.
However, an impressive consensus price target is not the only factor that indicates a potential upside in AAL. This view is strengthened by the agreement among analysts that the company will report better earnings than what they estimated earlier. Though a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't give any idea as to how much the stock could surge, it has proven effective in predicting an upside.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Here's What You May Not Know About Analysts' Price TargetsAccording to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Why AAL Could Witness a Solid UpsideAnalysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. That's because empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 792.5% over the past month, as seven estimates have gone higher compared to no negative revision.
Moreover, AAL currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much AAL could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
The market expects American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 23, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis world's largest airline is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.05 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -94.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $16.7 billion, up 16% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 386.49% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for American Airlines?For American Airlines, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +67.44%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.
So, this combination indicates that American Airlines will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that American Airlines would post a loss of$0.45 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.40, delivering a surprise of +11.11%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
American Airlines appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.05 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -94.7%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $16.7 billion, up 16% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for American Airlines has been revised 386.5% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +67.44%.
This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggests that American Airlines will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
American Airlines Group (AAL 0.26%), the passenger and cargo airline, closed at $15.63, down 0.26%. Investors are waiting for July 23 earnings for clues on demand and guidance. Other domestic airlines began reporting results after the close today.
Trading volume reached 181.0 million shares, coming in about 83% above its three-month average of 99.2 million shares. American Airlines Group IPO'd in 2005 and has fallen 19% since going public.
How the markets moved todayThe S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.38%) rose 0.38% to 7,572, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.62%) gained 0.62% to 26,269. Among passenger airlines and air freight transportation peers, Delta Air Lines (DAL +0.53%) closed at $85.96, up 0.53%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL +0.52%) closed at $120.97, up 0.52%, as investors parsed airline-demand signals and upcoming earnings readouts.
What this means for investorsUnited Airlines kicked off this reporting cycle, and it topped estimates for both earnings and revenue. It also lifted the lower end of its full-year earnings range. The story for United will likely also be heard from other carriers, including American.
United said Q2 fuel costs soared 84% year over year. It added that higher jet fuel prices could raise its expenses by nearly $6 billion this year, compared with projections made at the beginning of 2026.
Airlines are trying to mitigate those costs by filling seats. American Airlines will report Q2 on July 23. Investors will compare its added fuel expenses with those of United and others. The demand picture will also help drive the stock’s direction.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
July 15, 2026 16:30 ET | Source: American Airlines, Inc.
FORT WORTH, Texas, July 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) today announced that John W. Dietrich has been elected to the company’s board of directors. Dietrich will serve on the board’s Audit Committee and Finance Committee.
Dietrich brings 35 years of experience in the aviation and air cargo industries, with a strong track record of operational and financial leadership. He most recently served as Executive Vice President and CFO of FedEx Corporation from 2023 to 2026, where he led the company’s global finance organization and helped advance initiatives focused on efficiency, cost discipline and long-term value creation.
American’s Chairman Greg Smith expressed his pleasure in welcoming Dietrich to the board. “John possesses a distinguished professional background and a proven track record over his 35 years of aerospace leadership,” said Smith. “His extensive experience — coupled with his reputation and success in managing complex, capital-intensive operations as well as his insights into financial discipline, risk management and governance — will significantly enhance the board's capabilities as we prioritize long-term performance and shareholder value.”
Prior to joining FedEx, Dietrich spent more than two decades at Atlas Air Worldwide, where he held numerous senior leadership roles, including President and CEO and member of the board of directors. He was appointed president of Atlas in 2019 and previously served as COO, with responsibility for all aspects of the company’s global operations. Earlier in his career, Dietrich served as General Counsel for Atlas and spent more than a decade at United Airlines, the majority of the time as an attorney.
“John has a deep understanding of our industry and a proven ability to connect operational performance with financial results,” said American’s CEO Robert Isom. “His experience leading global aviation and cargo businesses — and his focus on execution and accountability — will be a valuable addition to our board.”
Dietrich is an active leader across the aviation and transportation industry. He currently serves as chairman of the National Defense Transportation Association and on the boards of AAR Corporation and First Horizon Corporation. He is also a former member and chairman of the National Air Carrier Association and a former member of the International Air Transport Association Board of Governors.
Dietrich earned a bachelor’s degree from Southern Illinois University and graduated cum laude from the University of Illinois Chicago School of Law.
About American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL)
American Airlines is a premium global airline connecting more of the U.S. to the world. With roots tracing back to an air mail carrier in the Midwestern United States in 1926, American now operates more than 6,000 daily flights to more than 350 destinations in more than 60 countries and serves more than 200 million customers annually. Powered by a proud and talented team of 130,000 aviation professionals, American’s team lives out the airline’s purpose of caring for people on life’s journey every day.
The world’s largest airline proudly celebrates its centennial year in 2026, reaching a milestone that reflects a century of innovation and the Forever ForwardSM spirit that changed the industry and the world. American introduced the first scheduled air cargo service, the first airport lounge and the first airline loyalty program and continues to reinvent the customer experience today. The airline is also a founding member of the oneworld alliance, whose members serve more than 900 destinations around the globe.
Get the latest about American at news.aa.com and @AmericanAir.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.
A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.
The power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements makes the Zacks rating system highly useful for individual investors, since it can be difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts. These are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time.
Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for American Airlines basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock PricesThe change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. That's partly because of the influence of institutional investors that use earnings and earnings estimates for calculating the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their bulk investment action then leads to price movement for the stock.
For American Airlines, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate RevisionsEmpirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Earnings Estimate Revisions for American AirlinesThis world's largest airline is expected to earn $0.49 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2026, which represents no year-over-year change.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for American Airlines. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 138.1%.
Bottom LineUnlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of "buy" and "sell" ratings for its entire universe of more than 4,000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a "Strong Buy" rating and the next 15% get a "Buy" rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here >>>
The upgrade of American Airlines to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.
The upward trend in estimate revisions for this world's largest airline reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight.
The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.
For American Airlines, strong agreement among the covering analysts in revising earnings estimates upward has resulted in meaningful improvement in consensus estimates for the next quarter and full year.
The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Current-Quarter Estimate RevisionsThe earnings estimate of $0.05 per share for the current quarter represents a change of -94.7% from the number reported a year ago.
Over the last 30 days, two estimates have moved higher for American Airlines while one has gone lower. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 386.49%.
Current-Year Estimate RevisionsFor the full year, the earnings estimate of $0.49 per share represents a change of +36.1% from the year-ago number.
The revisions trend for the current year also appears quite promising for American Airlines, with seven estimates moving higher over the past month compared to no negative revisions. The consensus estimate has also received a boost over this time frame, increasing 792.54%.
Favorable Zacks RankThe promising estimate revisions have helped American Airlines earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.
Bottom LineAmerican Airlines shares have added 5.5% over the past four weeks, suggesting that investors are betting on its impressive estimate revisions. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away to benefit from its earnings growth prospects.
The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks.
Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks.
Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today.
One company value investors might notice is American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) . AAL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an A for Value. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.44 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 11.81. Over the past 52 weeks, AAL's Forward P/E has been as high as 11.09 and as low as 4.04, with a median of 7.73.
Finally, investors should note that AAL has a P/CF ratio of 2.92. This metric focuses on a firm's operating cash flow and is often used to find stocks that are undervalued based on the strength of their cash outlook. AAL's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 6.93. Within the past 12 months, AAL's P/CF has been as high as 4.58 and as low as 2.04, with a median of 3.05.
Investors could also keep in mind Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) , another Transportation - Airline stock with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and Value grade of A.
Shares of Delta Air Lines are currently trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.13 and a PEG ratio of 1.61 compared to its industry's P/E and PEG ratios of 11.81 and 0.53, respectively.
DAL's price-to-earnings ratio has been as high as 9.94 and as low as 5.04, with a median of 8.52, while its PEG ratio has been as high as 2.36 and as low as 0.45, with a median of 1.04, all within the past year.
Additionally, Delta Air Lines has a P/B ratio of 2.24 while its industry's price-to-book ratio sits at 3.23. For DAL, this valuation metric has been as high as 3.11, as low as 1.52, with a median of 2.29 over the past year.
These are just a handful of the figures considered in American Airlines and Delta Air Lines's great Value grade. Still, they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment. Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook, and we can clearly see that AAL and DAL is an impressive value stock right now.
Momentum investors typically don't time the market or "buy low and sell high." In other words, they avoid betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.
Who doesn't like betting on fast-moving trending stocks? But determining the right entry point isn't easy. Often, these stocks lose momentum once their valuation moves ahead of their future growth potential. In such a situation, investors find themselves loaded up on expensive shares with limited to no upside or even a downside. So, going all-in on momentum could be risky at times.
It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
There are several stocks that currently pass through the screen and American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) is one of them. Here are the key reasons why this stock is a great candidate.
Investors' growing interest in a stock is reflected in its recent price increase. A price change of 5.5% over the past four weeks positions the stock of this world's largest airline well in this regard.
While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. AAL meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 33.3% over the past 12 weeks.
Moreover, the momentum for AAL is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.32. This indicates that the stock moves 32% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that AAL has a Momentum Score of A, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.
In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped AAL earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, AAL is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. AAL is currently trading at 0.19 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 19 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, AAL appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
In addition to AAL, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.
However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.
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In the latest trading session, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) closed at $16.31, marking a -3.78% move from the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.79%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.26%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.55%.
The world's largest airline's shares have seen an increase of 13.15% over the last month, surpassing the Transportation sector's gain of 3.77% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.28%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of American Airlines in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on July 23, 2026. In that report, analysts expect American Airlines to post earnings of $0.05 per share. This would mark a year-over-year decline of 94.74%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $16.7 billion, up 16.02% from the year-ago period.
For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $0.49 per share and a revenue of $62.17 billion, signifying shifts of +36.11% and +13.79%, respectively, from the last year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for American Airlines. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 792.54% increase. Right now, American Airlines possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, American Airlines is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 34.58. This signifies a premium in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 11.27 for its industry.
The Transportation - Airline industry is part of the Transportation sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 178, positioning it in the bottom 28% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Kirby?The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Kirby (KEX - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) 16 days from its next quarterly earnings release on July 29, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.74 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $1.74 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.7 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Kirby has an Earnings ESP of +2.66%. Investors should also know that KEX is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
KEX is one of just a large database of Transportation stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) .
Slated to report earnings on July 23, 2026, American Airlines holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $0.09 a share 10 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Airlines is $0.05, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +67.44%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, KEX and AAL could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
JPMorgan has placed Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) on "Negative Catalyst Watch" ahead of its scheduled 23 July update, warning cost inflation could dent earnings across European diversified miners despite improved valuation support.
The broker said the sector has underperformed MSCI Europe by 7% since 9 March and by 20% since June, leaving stocks closer to its price targets. But analyst Dominic O’Kane retained a cautious stance into Q2 reporting, citing “cost-inflation driven earnings disappointments” and volatile geopolitical and commodity risks.
Anglo, rated Underweight, is seen as most exposed, with JPMorgan 6% below Bloomberg consensus for first-half 2026 EBITDA due to high Brazil and South Africa iron ore freight costs.
Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), rated Neutral, also faces pressure from African copper, where sulphuric acid costs are more than three times higher. JPMorgan added that any prolonged suspension of the Collahuasi desalination plant could hit copper recoveries for both Anglo and Glencore.
Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) was described as “emerging as a value candidate”, trading around 25% below JPMorgan’s £82.50 price target, though the broker remains wary of Q2 cost impacts.
Kumba Iron Ore was upgraded to Neutral after a roughly 25% fall since February left the shares around 15% below JPMorgan’s ZAR314 target.
July 09, 2026 10:00 ET | Source: American Airlines, Inc.
FORT WORTH, Texas, July 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL) will webcast a live audio feed of its second-quarter 2026 financial results conference call July 23 at 7:30 a.m. CT.
The webcast will be available on a listen-only basis at aa.com/investorrelations. An archive of the call will be available on the website.
About American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL)
American Airlines is a premium global airline connecting more of the U.S. to the world. With roots tracing back to an air mail carrier in the Midwestern United States in 1926, American now operates more than 6,000 daily flights to more than 350 destinations in more than 60 countries and serves more than 200 million customers annually. Powered by a proud and talented team of 130,000 aviation professionals, American’s team lives out the airline’s purpose of caring for people on life’s journey every day.
The world’s largest airline proudly celebrates its centennial year in 2026, reaching a milestone that reflects a century of innovation and the Forever ForwardSM spirit that changed the industry and the world. American introduced the first scheduled air cargo service, the first airport lounge and the first airline loyalty program and continues to reinvent the customer experience today. The airline is also a founding member of the oneworld alliance, whose members serve more than 900 destinations around the globe.
Get the latest about American at news.aa.com and @AmericanAir.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum traders and investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." This investing style is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Employing factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, the Momentum Style Score can indicate favorable times to build a position in high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
But it can feel overwhelming to pick the right stocks for you and your investing goals with over 800 top-rated stocks to choose from.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) American Airlines Group Inc. was formed following the December 2013 merger between AMR (American Airlines' parent group, which was founded in 1934) and U.S. Airways. The merger, which occurred after a bankruptcy filing by American Airlines, resulted in the formation of the largest airline company in the world. American Airlines Group is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.
AAL is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Transportation stock. AAL has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 22.1% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2026, seven analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.56 to $0.46 per share. AAL boasts an average earnings surprise of +2.6%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, AAL should be on investors' short list.
The Nasdaq fell 2.28%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.68%. Industrials also lagged, dropping about 2.5%, adding to the pressure on airline stocks.
Analyst sentiment remained constructive, with Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos raising his price forecast on American Airlines from $16 to $25 while maintaining a Positive rating.
The analyst believes these valuation levels appropriately reflect AAL’s progress in expanding premium offerings and addressing domestic network concerns, while factoring in near-term macroeconomic, geopolitical, and balance sheet risks.
American Airlines Technical AnalysisThe stock continues to trade above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact.
Momentum indicators also remain constructive. The MACD remains above its signal line, indicating buying momentum continues despite Tuesday’s pullback.
Investors will watch whether shares can hold support near the $15 level if selling pressure continues. The stock reached a 52-week high of $18.79 in July after forming a bullish “golden cross” in June, when the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average.
Earnings And Analyst OutlookAmerican Airlines is expected to report second-quarter results on July 23. Wall Street expects earnings of 4 cents a share, down from 95 cents a year earlier, on revenue of $16.68 billion, up from $14.40 billion.
The stock carries a consensus Hold rating with an average analyst price forecast of $19.47. On Tuesday, Susquehanna raised its price forecast to $25 while maintaining a Positive rating. Earlier this month, BMO Capital raised its forecast to $19.50 with a Market Perform rating, and TD Cowen increased its forecast to $24 while reiterating its Buy rating.
American Airlines ETF ExposureAmerican Airlines is a significant holding in several aviation-focused exchange-traded funds, including the Themes Airlines ETF (AIRL) and the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS). As a result, fund inflows and outflows can influence trading activity in the stock.
AAL Stock Price Activity: American Airlines Group shares were down 2.03% at $17.39 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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American Airlines is planning to open a new grab-and-go lounge at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport by the end of this year, its first new facility at the airport in more than four years as it continues its fight for high-paying customers to close a profit gap with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines.
The new lounge, a 3,700-square-foot space, will include a barista bar with hot and iced coffee drinks as well as hot and cold food travelers can grab.
Airlines have been adding more of these short-visit lounges in recent years to give credit card holders and big spenders access to spaces without crowding larger airport clubs. United announced its first in late 2022, for Denver International Airport.
watch now
Airlines and credit card companies alike have raised the entry requirements or scaled back on freebies like guest passes to avoid overcrowding.
American opened the first of its grab-and-go lounges, which it calls Provisions, at Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina, last year.
American operates out of JFK's Terminal 8, which is shared by its Oneworld Alliance partners, Japan Airlines, Alaska Airlines, British Airways and others.
It has a trio of high-end lounges for business-class travelers, first-class passengers and other frequent flyer elites for long-haul trips, which the airline opened there in 2022. It also operates an Admirals Club there that is used more for lounge membership customers. American hasn't updated its New York space lately like it has with those in other cities like Chicago and Austin, Texas.
Read more about airlines' race to win over big spendersUnited ditches more economy seats to make room for bigger premium cabins with new layoutsWhy airline class wars will intensify in 2026Caviar and privacy: Airlines' business-class wars are hereDelta says premium travel is set to overtake coach cabin sales next yearAmerican Airlines is arriving late to the luxury travel boom. Can it catch up?First-class seats are getting so fancy they’re holding up new airplanesAirlines can’t add high-end seats fast enough as travelers treat themselves to first class
In the latest trading session, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) closed at $17.87, marking a +1.71% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.05%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.09%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.24%.
Heading into today, shares of the world's largest airline had gained 19.93% over the past month, outpacing the Transportation sector's gain of 5.43% and the S&P 500's loss of 1.42%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of American Airlines in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $0.06, indicating a 93.68% decline compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $16.66 billion, up 15.79% from the year-ago period.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $0.13 per share and a revenue of $61.97 billion, indicating changes of -63.89% and +13.43%, respectively, from the former year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for American Airlines. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 167.09% upward. American Airlines currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
From a valuation perspective, American Airlines is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 137.03. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.79.
The Transportation - Airline industry is part of the Transportation sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 210, which puts it in the bottom 14% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Remember to apply Zacks.com to follow these and more stock-moving metrics during the upcoming trading sessions.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) shares are moving higher on Wednesday. Some analysts attribute the move to the recent sell-off in the oil markets.
The shares could be breaking out, and this could be a bullish dynamic suggesting the rally will continue. This is why American Airlines is the Stock of the Day.
• American Airlines Group stock is approaching key resistance levels. What’s next?
If a stock is trending higher, there is more demand for it than there is supply. Those who wish to acquire shares have no choice but to outbid each other to attract sellers into the market.
This forces the shares into an uptrend.
The situation changes when the shares reach resistance. There is a large amount of supply or shares for sale.
Investors and traders can buy all the shares they wish to without pushing the price higher. This is why rallies end or pause when they reach resistance.
Sometimes stocks reverse and head lower after they reach resistance.
This happens when some of the traders and investors who created the resistance with their sell orders become anxious and impatient. They are worried others will be willing to sell at a lower price than they are.
And they know the buyers will go to whoever is offering shares at the lowest price.
As a result, they reduce the prices at which they are trying to sell their shares. Other concerned sellers see this and do the same. This can cause a snowball effect that pushes the price lower.
Sometimes, buyers eventually overpower sellers at resistance, and the price goes higher. When this happens, traders say it’s a breakout.
Breakouts are considered to be a bullish dynamic. They show that the sellers who created the resistance are gone. They have either finished or canceled their orders.
With this supply taken off the market, the stage is set for a new uptrend. Buyers will be forced to outbid each other again, and this can move the shares higher.
As you can see on the chart, American Airlines has broken the resistance around the $16.25 level. The rally may continue.
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Bask Bank is an online-only division of Texas Capital Bank built around a simple premise: pick how you want your savings to earn: cash interest in a high-yield savings account, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL | AAL Price Prediction) AAdvantage miles, or a fixed return in a CD. If you already fly American or want a no-frills online savings account from an FDIC-insured U.S. bank, Bask is worth a close look. If you want a debit card, checking account, branches, or a full digital ecosystem, it is not the right fit.
What Bask Bank Actually Is Bask Bank is a brand of Texas Capital Bank, N.A., a publicly traded commercial bank headquartered in Dallas. Deposits are held at Texas Capital Bank and are FDIC insured up to standard limits per depositor, per ownership category. There is no checking account, debit card, ATM network, or in-person service. Everything happens through the website and mobile app. Bask is meant to sit next to your existing checking account, not replace it.
How the Accounts Work Bask offers three main products:
Interest Savings Account: A standard high-yield savings account with no monthly fee and no minimum balance. You link an external checking account, move money in by ACH, and earn a variable rate. Interest compounds and is credited monthly.
Mileage Savings Account: Instead of cash interest, it credits American Airlines AAdvantage miles based on your average daily balance, posted monthly to your AAdvantage account. Miles earned count toward AAdvantage status in certain categories. The tradeoff is that you are paid in a currency whose value depends entirely on how you redeem it.
CD lineup: Fixed terms typically from a few months to about two years. Rates are locked for the term, and early withdrawal penalties apply if you break the CD before maturity.
Real Strengths The Interest Savings Account is competitive against the broader market. The national average 12-month CD rate sits at just 1.65%, and traditional brick-and-mortar savings accounts pay a small fraction of that. Bask has consistently positioned itself in the competitive tier rather than near the bottom.
The Mileage Savings Account is genuinely differentiated. There is no other mainstream U.S. bank account that pays you in airline miles on your full balance. For a saver who would otherwise buy miles or fly enough to value AAdvantage status, the effective return can beat cash interest on a per-dollar basis, depending on how you redeem.
The account mechanics are clean: no monthly maintenance fee, no minimum balance fee on savings accounts, and a straightforward interface. Customer support is U.S.-based and reachable by phone during business hours. FDIC insurance through Texas Capital Bank removes a layer of risk that has caused real problems for depositors at other digital platforms.
Drawbacks There is no checking account, debit card, or ATM access. To use your money you have to transfer it to a linked external account by ACH, which takes a business day or two. That is a deal-breaker for anyone who wants a single bank for everything.
The Mileage Savings Account has a subtle catch. Miles are not cash and are not FDIC insured once posted to your AAdvantage account. American can devalue the program, change award charts, or alter how miles count toward status. You also owe federal income tax on the value of miles earned, and Bask reports them, which can come as an unwelcome surprise the first year.
Bask does not publish a full suite of products. There is no money market account, joint trust account in every configuration, business banking, or investment accounts. Mobile app reviews are mixed.
How Bask Bank Compares Against the largest online savings banks, Bask competes on rate but loses on breadth. Larger online banks bundle checking, debit, ATM rebates, and sometimes investing under one login.
Against a brokerage cash management account or a money market fund, Bask is simpler and is a bank deposit rather than a security. Money market funds can pay similar yields but are not FDIC insured.
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Against CDs, the Interest Savings Account gives up rate certainty in exchange for liquidity. With the Fed funds target rate currently at 3.75% and the Fed having cut three times between September and December 2025, locking in a CD term protects against further cuts, while a variable HYSA will drift down if the Fed keeps easing.
Who Should Use Bask Bank Bask makes sense for a saver who already has a checking account they like, wants a separate online bucket for an emergency fund or savings goal, and wants either a competitive cash yield or American Airlines miles. It suits frequent American flyers, parents stockpiling miles for family travel, and anyone chasing AAdvantage status who can park a meaningful balance for a year or more.
With the U.S. personal savings rate at just 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026, down from 6.2% two years earlier, and inflation still pushing the CPI to a fresh high of 334.0 in May 2026, every basis point of yield on the cash you do save matters more than it used to.
Who Should Look Elsewhere Skip Bask if you want one bank for your entire financial life, if you need a debit card or ATM access from your savings, if you carry a credit card balance at the current average APR of 21.00%, in which case paying that down beats any savings yield, or if you would never use American Airlines miles. The mileage product only pays off if you actually fly American or redeem with partners.
For current rates on the Interest Savings Account, the Mileage Savings Account, and any active CD specials or promotions, check the live offer below.
[OFFERS MODULE]
Frequently Asked Questions Is Bask Bank FDIC insured? Yes. Bask Bank is a division of Texas Capital Bank, N.A., and deposits are held at Texas Capital Bank with standard FDIC insurance up to the applicable per-depositor, per-ownership-category limits.
Is Bask Bank a real bank or a fintech? It is a real bank. Bask is a digital brand of Texas Capital Bank, a chartered, regulated U.S. bank, not a fintech app riding on a sponsor bank.
Can I get a debit card with Bask Bank? No. Bask does not offer a checking account or debit card. You move money in and out by ACH transfer from a linked external bank.
Do I owe taxes on the AAdvantage miles I earn in the Mileage Savings Account? Yes. Miles earned on a Bask Mileage Savings Account are treated as taxable interest by the IRS, and Bask issues tax reporting on the assigned value of those miles. Build that into your decision before comparing the mileage account to a cash-interest account.
How does Bask handle withdrawals and transfers? All deposits and withdrawals run through ACH transfers between Bask and a linked external checking or savings account. Transfers typically settle within one to two business days.
What happens to my Bask rate if the Fed keeps cutting? The Interest Savings Account pays a variable rate, so it tends to drift with the broader rate environment. With the Fed funds target at 3.75% after cuts from a recent high of 4.5%, further cuts would likely pressure savings yields lower across the industry. A CD locks a fixed rate for its term and is the usual hedge against that risk.
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• American Airlines Group shares are advancing steadily. Why is AAL stock trading higher?
After spending much of 2026 battling rising fuel prices, the airline is suddenly benefiting from a sharp decline in jet fuel costs following somewhat easing tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, American Airlines stock has flashed a Golden Cross and broken above key technical levels, giving investors fresh reasons to revisit the airline name.
Chart created using Benzinga Pro
The combination of improving fundamentals and strengthening technicals is raising an important question: Is American Airlines ready for takeoff?
One Of American’s Biggest Headwinds Is EasingFuel has been one of the airline industry’s biggest challenges this year.
American Airlines previously lowered its outlook as higher fuel expenses threatened profitability despite healthy travel demand. Management estimated rising fuel costs could add billions of dollars to annual expenses, putting pressure on margins across the sector.
That picture has changed dramatically in recent weeks.
Following the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement, oil and jet fuel prices retreated sharply as fears of supply disruptions eased. For airlines, fuel is one of the largest operating expenses, meaning lower prices can have an outsized impact on earnings.
For American Airlines, the reversal could turn one of its biggest headwinds into a meaningful tailwind.
Demand Hasn’t Been The ProblemUnlike previous airline downturns driven by weakening travel activity, demand has remained relatively resilient.
American Airlines executives have pointed to strong corporate travel trends and healthy premium bookings, suggesting customers continue to spend despite economic uncertainty.
That distinction matters.
If demand remains stable while fuel costs decline, profit expectations can improve much faster than investors anticipate.
The Chart Is Starting To AgreeThe improving fundamental backdrop is now being reflected in the stock’s technical setup.
American Airlines recently formed a golden cross, with its 50-day moving average climbing above its 200-day moving average. The stock’s 50-day average currently sits around $13.26, slightly above its 200-day average near $13.16.
More importantly, shares are trading around $16.27, well above both trend indicators and roughly 24% above the 200-day moving average.
Momentum indicators are also leaning bullish.
The stock’s MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) remains in positive territory, while rising trading volume suggests investor participation has increased during the recent advance.
Not every signal is flashing green, however. AAL’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) recently climbed above 70, a level that can indicate overbought conditions and potentially signal a near-term pause after a strong rally.
Why Investors Are WatchingAirline stocks often respond quickly when fuel markets move in their favor.
The recent decline in jet fuel prices doesn’t eliminate all of American Airlines’ challenges, but it materially improves one of the company’s most important earnings variables. Combined with resilient travel demand, a golden cross and a breakout above key moving averages, it helps explain why investors are becoming increasingly interested in the stock.
For now, the chart and the fundamentals appear to be telling the same story.
The question is whether cheaper fuel can provide enough lift to keep American Airlines climbing after its recent breakout.
Image via Shutterstock
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American Airlines Group (AAL +4.58%), a major U.S. network carrier, closed at $16.14, up 0.37%. Lower jet-fuel prices and a technical breakout supported the shares, while investors are now watching earnings and guidance.
Trading volume reached 166.1 million shares, coming in about 118% above its three-month average of 76.1 million shares.
American Airlines Group IPO'd in 2005 and has fallen 16% since going public.
How the markets moved todayThe S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.25%) closed at 7,365, down 1.44%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.15%) closed at 25,587, down 2.21%. Among U.S. passenger air transportation peers, Delta Air Lines (DAL +2.73%) closed at $86.72, up 0.93%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL +4.61%) closed at $121.55, up 2.42%, highlighting relative strength in airline shares despite weakness in the broader markets.
What this means for investorsLower jet-fuel prices are helping sustain a surge in American Airlines’ shares. The stock has jumped 50% in the last three months and is trading just shy of its 52-week high.
Technical traders noted that the stock’s short-term moving average has crossed above its long-term moving average, a bullish “golden cross.”
It’s the industry fundamentals driving this, though. Investors will watch to see how well margins recover in the lower fuel-price environment. The stock could have more room to run if margin relief persists.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $15.71, moving +1.62% from the previous trading session. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.57% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.64%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.15%.
The world's largest airline's shares have seen an increase of 25.08% over the last month, surpassing the Transportation sector's gain of 7.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.14%.
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of American Airlines in its upcoming release. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $0.06, showcasing a 93.68% downward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $16.68 billion, indicating a 15.88% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of -$0.07 per share and revenue of $61.94 billion. These totals would mark changes of -119.44% and +13.38%, respectively, from last year.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for American Airlines. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 62.97% increase. American Airlines currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
The Transportation - Airline industry is part of the Transportation sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 210, putting it in the bottom 14% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
American Airlines is rated Buy despite a challenged balance sheet and volatile fuel costs, as the market is undervaluing structural revenue recovery. Premium cabin load factors and AAdvantage loyalty enrollment are at record highs, with corporate and SME travel revenue up 13% and 28%, respectively. Management reduced debt by $1.8 billion in Q1, prioritizing free cash flow and balance sheet improvement over aggressive fleet expansion.
Stock in global air carrier American Airlines Group (AAL +2.25%)closed Friday at $13.50, up 1.50%, as commentary highlighted growth potential behind the fuel-driven profitability pressures.
Trading volume reached 105.7 million shares, coming in about 75% above its three-month average of 67.4 million shares. American Airlines Group IPO'd in 2005 and has fallen 36% since going public.
How the markets moved todayThe S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) fell 2.64% to 7,384, while the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) dropped 4.18% to 25,709. Among airline stocks, Delta Air Lines (DAL +1.50%) closed down 0.11% at $79.42, and United Airlines (UAL +2.58%) finished up 0.75% at $105.73, reflecting mixed moves across industry peers.
What this means for investorsAmerican Airlines gained against a backdrop of stock market losses today as investors rotated out of high-risk tech stocks. However, the stock is still down almost 8% across the week, as investors eye elevated jet fuel prices — particularly as the firm announced it would temporarily suspend certain routes in the coming months.
However, some analysts argue that fuel headwinds hide a potential growth story. Demand is strong, and American Airlines is successfully focusing on growing its loyalty program, increasing premium demand, and reducing debt. Not only did its Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, but it had reduced its debt to $34.7 billion — its lowest level in more than 10 years.
It isn’t clear how long oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz will continue. But when oil prices do ease, it looks like American Airlines could be wheels-up for longer-term recovery.
Emma Newbery has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
